Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - Which Viking rookie will make the biggest impact?

Episode Date: June 8, 2020

How many receptions will Justin Jefferson have? What are some of the biggest challenges faced by Jeff Gladney? Could see see Ezra Cleveland play right away? What steps does Cameron Dantzler have to take in order to see the field? Who's a sleeper in the later rounds?  Plus what to expect from Joe Burrow this season and which receiver will end up with the most receptions among rookies? Read Matthew Coller's written work at PurpleInsider.substack.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Coors Brewing Company, Golden, Colorado, and as always, celebrate. Hey there, my name is Ricky Smith, and I'm the founder of Random Acts of Kindness Everywhere, a nonprofit that simply does exactly what it says, promote kindness everywhere. We know the world is crazy right now. If you are searching for a podcast that has a deeper conversation about race,

my co-host Angel Gray and I will be discussing everything going on right now on our podcast, Random Acts of Podcast on Blue Wire Podcast Network. To find out more, go to ricknow.org. Enjoy the show. Hey, everybody. Hey everybody, welcome into another episode of Purple Insider. Matthew Collar with you. And I want to remind you to go to purpleinsider.com.

That's where you can subscribe to all of my written work covering the Minnesota Vikings. And if you could rate and review this podcast, that would be a major, major help. It allows other Vikings fans to find this podcast when they go searching and type in Vikings in whatever podcast app they're using. If you rate and review, this will be the first one that comes up. So it is greatly appreciated. All right, now we welcome in to Purple Insider, Austin Gale of Pro Football Focus, and the Two for One podcast covers the NFL draft. And today on the show, we are going to go through made-up statistics by me for rookies, including all the Vikings rookies that are expected to play and have statistics, and then a couple from the draft that might have a good chance to be Rookie of the Year.

First, Austin, how are you holding up, buddy? How are you doing? Doing great, man. I really appreciate you having me on. Yeah, for sure. Let's just start right out with the Vikings' first pick, Justin Jefferson. Everyone that I've talked to who's watched Justin Jefferson tape is impressed with his ability to run after the catch. They're impressed with his ability to go up and get it. His athleticism is terrific. And when you're trying to figure out how well a rookie is going to perform right away, you think, well, if things don't go exactly right, could he still do something? And if things go really right, what's the ceiling for that? And I think with Jefferson, he's a guy that might have a high floor because you can find ways to get him the ball because of his run-after-catch ability, and I don't think they'll make the same mistake with him that they did with Cordell Patterson,

even if he doesn't master the route running right away. So here's my made-up statistics for Justin Jefferson this year. I've got 47 catches for 545 yards and four touchdowns. How do we feel about that for Justin Jefferson? I think that's great. I mean, PFF has him even above that. You know, right now projected to have over 50 receptions for 624 yards and 3.8 touchdowns, probably around four touchdowns.

I think I agree with you in terms of he has a high floor. I think he's going to see a high volume of targets in that Minnesota Vikings offense. And if we learned anything about Justin Jefferson at LSU, it's when he's thrown a high volume of targets, a high volume of accurate targets. He catches everything thrown his way, a very low drop rate at LSU, very good ball skills, very good in contested catch situations.

What I'm most interested in is not necessarily the volume. I know he has the ball skills right after the catch is there. I want to see where they play him. Is he going to play exclusively in the slot? And if so, how does that affect Adam Thielen's usage? I think it's going to be very interesting to see just how he's used because his best year at LSU, hands down, came when he almost exclusively played in the slot. If you go back to 2018, Joe Burrow wasn't as good, that entire LSU team wasn't as good, and he played more than 70, 80% of his routes outside receiver. And he did not create separation with great consistency there. I'm very interested.

I know he ran a fast 40-yard dash faster than many people thought. Does that lead people to believe that he can create separation consistently at outside receiver? I'd be interested to see it. I think his production is obviously going to have a ceiling from the slot. And it's obviously more replaceable in the slot. But I do think Justin Jefferson, his usage is what I'm most interested in in 2020. Yeah, I totally agree, because this is not an offense that usually runs three wide receivers. I mean, they often have two tight ends, or they often have two running backs in the backfield, and that leaves you with two outside receivers. I mean, even Adam Thielen, who had moved to the slot more often,

was still only in the slot about 20% of the time last year, and Stephon Diggs, who when he first came into the league was almost exclusively a slot receiver in 2016, then he was almost exclusively on the outside under Gary Kubiak's offense. Now, Stephon Diggs, of course, is a master route runner, and so is Adam Thielen, and those guys can do anything, but how tough would that be in that transition for Justin Jefferson if they say, look, we just don't have that many snaps from the slot? Are there other ways to do it as an outside wide receiver? I was thinking about, you know, condensed sets and

things like that that can give wide receivers an opportunity to get off the line of scrimmage without necessarily having to be out by the numbers. Oh, 100%. I think you have to get creative with how you deploy Justin Jefferson. I think if you exclusively played him as an outside receiver in a majority of your 12 personnel sets, it's going to be very difficult for him to have the same level of success that he did at LSU.

I wrote an entire piece about how he was significantly benefited from having a very accurate quarterback, the most accurate quarterback we've ever seen in a single season at the college level. He also benefited from playing in slots all next to no press coverage, a lot of off coverage, almost, I think it was 65% of his receiving yards came against off zone in the middle of the football field. Those are the easiest routes to come open on. Obviously, you have to be smart and you have to catch the football, but those things are more replaceable than having that raw athletic ability, that quick twitch muscle to create separation in small spaces

at outside receiver. What you see with Stephon Diggs, what you see with Adam Thielen. I think Justin Jefferson, temper expectations if he plays 80% of his routes at outside receiver, even with condensed sets. I think they have to involve him in the slot. They have to involve him against off coverage because I think press coverage is where he saw difficulty, and I think he would struggle to separate against more athletic corners in the NFL. Before we move on to Jeff Gladney, I want to ask your opinion on that transition and what the most difficult part is and what skills tend to translate because there's a lot of PTSD here from Vikings fans with Laquan Treadwell. So when I'm watching Justin Jefferson and he's going up and getting it, he's the contested catch

guy. As soon as you say that, Vikings fans go, ah, you know, you don't want to hear that. You want to hear separation. You want to hear route running. But I do think that it is a translatable skill and there is a lot of go up and get it when it comes to the NFL. It didn't work out with Laquan Treadwell because he couldn't separate from anyone at any point in the NFL. But is that one that you see in college that guys do well and then do that also well in the NFL? Yeah, I mean, to compare the two, Justin Jefferson's a better route runner,

better athlete with better ball skills than Laquan Treadwell. Where you have concerns with him being able to create separation is when you look back at the 2018 tape, how he created separation was a ton of double moves. He's a crafty route runner. When given the opportunity on option routes, double moves, those things, he can sell head fakes. He can do a lot of creative things to create separation in one-on-one coverage. What's the problem is that his slants don't create a ton of separation outside receiver, his curls, his hitches, his, you know, his posts. Like you're not seeing that separation on one cut routes because he's not a quick twitch athlete, not like these other outside receivers that have dominated in the NFL for quite some time. Like maybe you project him to have a

similar career to Michael Thomas, where you're winning a lot of at the short and intermediate levels of the football field because you can't create that separation consistently 15, 20 plus yards down the field. I saw someone compare Michael Thomas to the Alex Smith of wide receivers, and Justin Jefferson fits that mold more than he does a Will Fuller, Tyree Kill, Julio Jones, these guys that can get down the football field and win consistently those valuable routes. I think Justin Jefferson needs to play a Michael Thomas role. And guess what? He plays more than 50% of his snaps in the slot because that's where he has success. I think Justin Jefferson, I'm not calling him Michael Thomas, but they're similar players in

that their production should be treated similarly. I compare Justin Jefferson to Cooper Cupp, a receiver that's super crafty, catches everything thrown his way, and has very, very good ball skills. But again, Cooper C Cup plays a majority of his routes in the slot to avoid press coverage and find open holes in the zone. And this is where, with Cooper Cup, he lands with Sean McVay, put in the perfect situation with the perfect coach who's going to use his skill set properly. And that's one thing I believe that we can say also for Gary Kubiak, that he's made a career out of taking people's skill sets, strengths and weaknesses, and putting them in the right position to succeed. I haven't seen a whole

lot from Demarius Thomas since he was playing with Gary Kubiak as his coach. And I know Peyton Manning was also his quarterback. But I do think that historically, Kubiak has been so good at this that where you land, what type of situation you end up in plays a huge role in your success. Let's move on to Jeff Gladney here. I would project Jeff Gladney to have exactly two interceptions. No, I'm just kidding. That's a terrible way to do it. I think he'll play 80% or more percent of snaps,

and let's just say that he will rank somewhere like 38th by pro football focus. Usually there's about 100 cornerbacks who play more than 50% of snaps. I say that he's going to be in the ballpark of the middle, exactly where we would have expected someone like Trey Waynes because it is just a really, really difficult position to translate from college to the NFL. But I also think that his experience at TCU, he's got more targets than almost anybody in the draft because of just how much he played and how often he was

on the field, how many throws came his way, that I think it gives him a better chance to translate pretty quickly, but maybe you can speak to how difficult that is for corners to step right into starting roles like I think Jeff Gladney will. No, I think that's a good shout in terms of Jeff Gladney as the most experienced, battle-tested cornerback entering the NFL as a rookie. I mean, he played a ton of snaps at TCU, saw a ton of targets playing in the Big 12, and had very, very good ball production. You see forced incompletions. You see, you know, interceptions. He gets his hand on the football. He makes plays in the secondary. Talking to Dane Brugler of The Athletic, he sees time after time these cornerbacks,

these defensive backs that find ways to get their hands on the football at the collegiate level. That translates very similarly to Desmond King, you know, the former Iowa cornerback that plays a ton in the slot for the Chargers now. He continues to find his way to the football because he's a smart football player, very instinctive, and has the natural ability to thrive in the NFL against NFL talent. I think Jeff Gladney, not projecting him to play in the slot, he is on the smaller side. I think he can hang at outside cornerback because of what you saw in the Big 12. But the biggest number for Jeff Gladney, I'm not sure if you're aware of this, he played a ton of quarters. He played almost over 50% of his snaps in quarters.

No other cornerback even saw close to that. Everyone's playing single high looks like cover three, cover one, cover zero, those types of things. He played so much quarters at TCU as a quarters heavy defense that that translation to the Minnesota Vikings defense will be different. If they ask him to play press a lot, it'll be different. If they ask him to play in single high looks, it's going to be a learning curve for Jeff Gladney. He has one of the bigger learning curves from a coverage standpoint going from TCU to Minnesota than any of the quarterbacks here. I think he, because he gets his hand on the football, will grade well as a rookie, but he also takes a lot of calculated risks.

And those calculated risks at the college level turn into big risks at the NFL level, which could lead to big plays. And that obviously plays a big factor in PFF coverage, right? Go to sodastick.com to get all your original Minnesota sports-inspired goods. If you haven't seen this stuff yet, you've got to check it out. One of my favorite designs is the Minnesota Moon, a tribute to the infamous Disgusting Axe at Lambeau Field. All their apparel is screen-printed here in Minneapolis on super-soft, super- super comfy shirts and hoodies.

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someone undercut a route and pick off a pass or knock it down. You're like in the NFL, you better stay behind that guy and try to knock it down with your arm as opposed to going for the interception. Because if you don't get it, they're going to run all the way to the end zone. And I mean, there's so much different about this position. You talk about the man press.

I mean, how difficult it is in the NFL when you just watch someone like Stefan Diggs, and that's the caliber of receiver you have to go up against on a weekly basis. Somebody who absolutely cannot be stopped at the line of scrimmage, somebody who can slam on the brakes on a dime and run all sorts of different routes at all sorts of different levels. I just feel like this position is trying to drink out of a water hose or whatever, right? I mean, you're just, you have so much to process, even as an outside corner, and the talent level goes up from maybe once or twice in your career, you faced somebody really good at wide receiver to now every single week. I mean, what team does

not have a great wide receiver? I mean, you look through the Vikings schedule, almost every single week, it's going to be somebody really good and a lot of really good quarterbacks as well. This one, I think I might be generous to say that he could be just a little bit above average in his PFF grade at the end of the day. But I also think too, as poorly as the Vikings corners played last year, if he could just hang on, he's got a lot of help from Anthony Harris, from Harrison Smith, from Eric Kendricks, from Anthony Barr. The rest of the unit is really strong for a rookie to not have to do everything himself. Well, no, absolutely. And I think another thing to mention with Jeff Gladney, too, is that he's a dog, you know, very physical, very instinctive. I think he's going to immediately go into that locker room and feel like a veteran. I mean,

that goes from the experience. That goes just how he approaches the game. If Mike Zimmer values you at the cornerback position, there's a good chance you're going to be successful in the NFL. Obviously, he hasn't had a great track record with Trey Waynes, et cetera, but I do feel confident in his evaluation of Jeff Gladney, knowing that he has the experience, has the high grading profile, has the ball production to really perform.

I think another thing, when you mentioned coverage grade at PFF, the cornerback position is a position unlike pass rusher, in that when you win a pass rushing snap, you create a pressure, things are very positive, et cetera. When you lose, you just don't create pressure. You don't give up a touchdown. You don't give up a big play. You just do not create pressure.

With the cornerback position, it's so different. It's so much more polar in that when you win, it's obviously a force of completion or an interception. But when you lose, when you lose at the cornerback position, you are giving up big plays. You are potentially giving up touchdowns. And that's why, similar to offensive tackle, you're looking to avoid losses. And I think Jeff Gladney, in addition to being that playmaker, I think he'll do a good job of avoiding losses, potentially putting him in that slightly above average as a rookie. Now, the next two draft picks that I want to talk about, and then you can tell me if there's anyone beyond the fourth round that you think will actually get on the field for the Vikings. But Ezra Cleveland, Cam Dantzler, that's the biggest question. How much will they play? If I'm trying

to project this out, I think Ezra Cleveland probably gets on the field for a couple hundred snaps. Riley Reif has had nagging injuries for pretty much his entire career, and there's a good shot every year. Rashad Hill, who's been their swing tackle, he ends up on the field for a couple hundred snaps every year. And so I would expect the same thing from Ezra Cleveland. But there's also the conversation with what's going on at guard for the Vikings, and could Ezra Cleveland be in that mix to potentially compete for

the guard position, or if he looks really good at left tackle, he would start and bump Riley Reif in, but I just, Austin, don't see that as a super realistic possibility that he's starting day one. No, I don't either. I think Ezra Cleveland, to compete for a starting offensive tackle job would even be rich rich for me, and I don't think with his frame, I don't think you necessarily want to kick him into guard super early. I still think he's long, a little bit thin. I think he needs to add some weight before you feel comfortable kicking him inside. He's very athletic. Some of the quickest feet in the draft, you saw that, obviously, at the combine. It's why

he was coveted by many, you know, in the analytic circles because of how impressive that combine was. I think you want to groom him though. I mean, he was going against Mountain West competition. The best, the best pass rusher Ezra Cleveland faced was on his own team and Curtis Weaver at practice. Like Ezra Cleveland did not see a ton of pass rushing talent at Boise State, even though they went against Florida State this past year. He simply did not see a ton of NFL caliber edge defenders. I think he needs a lot more reps. He's still very green in that regard. And as for Cameron Dantzler, I think, again,

him and Jeff Gladney are a little bit somewhat opposite in that Jeff Gladney is a much better athlete, way more experienced. While Dantzler was not targeted a ton at Mississippi State, you saw him stick with Jamar Chase. It's the game that stands out for him. But I think he's also going to need some reps in practice, some reps away from live game action before he's inserted. And I don't necessarily think you want to be playing him in the slot

out of the gate either because he was honestly best used at the line of scrimmage. And I know he's not fast in there, sometimes concerned there. But his press technique was good. His ball skill is very good. I think Cameron Dancer, again, really loved what the Vikings did in this draft. The first four picks are some of my favorite. I think draft grade on draft day, PFF gave the Vikings an A for their draft class because of these first four picks. I think you're going to get solid contributions from Dancer as a rotational player. As for Ezra Cleveland, I think let him beef up barring injury.

Yeah, with Dancer, he's the one that jumps out to me the most is the most intriguing because of the competition that he played against. And even though, like you said, he was not targeted the most when he was targeted, I believe it was a 41% completion percentage that opposing offenses had. And when you're playing against the high level competition, I would take that number to mean a little bit more than say, if if you're playing, like you mentioned, in the Mountain West or something like that. I really like Dantzler. He seems to have a natural feel for the position. I don't watch as much tape as you, but I've watched a handful of games just focus solely on him since the draft, and he just seems like a guy that moves pretty naturally. When the ball's in the air, he tries to find it. He can

make plays on the ball, as you mentioned, and I feel like that 40 is the only reason that he dropped as far as he dropped no I think it honestly was and he wasn't going to test super fast I have a source at Mississippi State who said he's been struggling to put on weight for so long and then going to the combine trying to add as much weight as he did you know did not come out of the brakes very clean he said you know he said he's seen Cameron Dancer run in the 4-4s. He obviously had that, you know, that video that had him in the 4-3s. I don't care. I think when you turn on the tape, when you look at what Cameron Dancer did against top flight competition in the SEC, I think natural feel for the position is a great way to describe it. He understands leverage. He understands,

you know, distance away from the wide receiver. He will get burnt if receivers get on top of him, but he does not let that happen. He's very rarely stacked. That's when, you know, obviously the wide receiver going ahead of the cornerback at the top of his route at the stem. I think Cameron Dantzler does a very good job of keeping players in front of him or keeping hip to hip with receivers that are flat out faster than him. And that technique is very valuable. You don't have to be a burner to be successful at the cornerback position. There is this baseline of speed you need. I think Cameron Gansler has it, especially when combined with that natural feel for the position and his technique.

And we know how much Mike Zimmer loves guys with some length to them. And every corner outside of Jeff Gladney that they've brought in, Mike Hughes is not the lankiest guy, but he might end up playing the slot. Usually the outside guys, Holton Hill, Trey Wayans, Xavier Rhodes, and now Cameron Dantzler, they have the longest, freakiest arms where you're like, did you grow up under power lines, dude? How did you get arms that long? It doesn't make any sense.

For the rest of the draft, Austin, it's always hard. You never know what fifth-round pick becomes Stephon Diggs in the first year Austin, it's always, you know, hard. You never know what fifth round pick becomes Stephon Diggs in the first year, and all of a sudden you catch him passes. But there are some interesting guys that could end up having rotational roles or fill in in some certain type of spot. A couple that stick out to me are Troy Dye and Josh Metellus, because it seems like Mike Zimmer and the front office wanted to have somebody who was that hybrid type of player who could cover particularly well, but was also big for the size of being a safety. I know Dye is more of a linebacker, but he's only 220-something pounds. So I think that they went out looking for a specific type of package player that J. Ron Curse never became.

No, I think you're right. I think starting with Troy Dye, I think he could be a very successful player in the NFL. I mean, this past year, played with a broken hand, played with a cast that looked like a gauntlet, if you will, this past year, and still ended up missing very few tackles, played very well for Oregon, specifically in coverage.

I think him, you talk about off-ball linebackers in coverage, and there's two ways to look at them. You know, linebackers that are so athletic, so fast, so quick twitch, that they can get to any area of the football field when they're locked in. Troy Dye, not necessarily that caliber of athleticism, but when he turns his back to the line of scrimmage, going back to his spots in zone coverage, he knows where the football is going. He understands route concepts. He knows how to pattern match at that position. And that, I think, is super, super important. You can have a freak athlete, an awful linebacker, but if they aren't smart enough and

instinctive enough to be able to turn their back to the line of scrimmage and still make plays on the football, you're not going to have a lot of success in the NFL. I think a very smart player with the base level athleticism needed to excel in coverage. And going to Metellus, you know, he's an interesting player. I think this past year you saw his grade improve steadily over the course of his career at Michigan, earned a 77.2 overall grade this past year. I think athleticism is a bit of a concern. You don't see the playmaking ability on the back end at Michigan because I think he was going against so much better athletes. He could be a package player that's very interesting.

But if I had to bring up some names that I liked after the third round, I know a lot of people are in love with James Lynch. They see him, you know, kicking inside maybe at the next level and having a ton of success as a pass rusher. Some mocked him as high as the first round. Chad Ryder of the NFL.com seat, you know, thought maybe the Carolina Panthers would trade back in to the first round for James Lynch. A lot of scouts liked James Lynch coming out. I think in addition to that, Kenny Willekes, the Michigan State edge defender, a very athletic dude. You saw that with his pro day backflip video or whatever it may be, but he also was very productive. One of the highest

ranked pass rushers from a pass rush win rate perspective in the Big Ten this past year, and the flexibility, the ankle flexion, the bend, that is so important when you're trying to finish at the next level. I think he's another guy, seventh round, I get it. He might not even make the team, but I think he has those tools to develop if he can kind of hang on. I'm so glad that ankle flexion made its way into the podcast. I mean, that is a football moment right there. While I agree with you on both of those guys, Lynch is going to have an opportunity right away. And the same, I mean, that's the thing about this team right now, is that in the past, a lot of the draft picks, opportunity was not there. But if anybody gets hurt at safety, it's going to be open season

for a competition there for somebody to step up. And I do think that there's a role that's open for a hybrid type of player. And when you mention Lynch and Wilkies, you've got a defensive line that's a little bit in flux. We know Daniil Hunter and Michael Pierce are going to be there for a long time. But aside from that, those two other positions, Afadi Adenabo is the leader in the clubhouse, but K.J. Wanham will have a chance to compete for a rotational role there

right away. And then, I'm sorry, D.J. Wanham. K.J. Osborne, D.J. Wanham. Anyway, and James Lynch, they really didn't have last year a three-technique rusher. They were mixing in Odenabo and Steven Weatherly to that position, so there's a chance right away for some of these guys to prove that they can be a rotational player on this defense.

No, 100%. And that's what you're looking for, and that's why you get so many different, you know, so many picks. I think some criticize the Vikings for trading down as much as they did and adding as many players as they did. They aren't even going to make all the team, you know, the team, but you have to consistently swing the bat. You know, the draft is very much a lottery. I think when you look at some of the things that the athletic did, pushing out consensus rankings, comparing draft boards, that's what's going to give you a better indication of

reaches and steals. As much as I value PFS opinion, my own opinion, you have to know the best in the game make mistakes every year. The best in the game make mistakes in the first, second, third round. It's looking at the consensus. It's looking at how everyone views this class is where you can kind of identify key steals, key reaches, and those things. But I think what we've learned over the past few years analyzing the draft, obviously positional value is very important. Looking at quarterback, corner, wide receiver, tackle. But in addition to that, swing the bat, trade back, get more picks, find a way to get more picks because there's a very good chance every year

that picks in the sixth and seventh round outperform picks in the third and fourth. I think that's what was very smart with the Vikings. There's another player I want to bring up, if you don't mind. Go ahead, yeah. It's Brian Cole. Brian Cole, the Mississippi State safety, who I think was a former four-star, five-star recruit. This guy was very, very athletic coming out. I think he ended up having to transfer to Mississippi State, reading into his background, but this is the guy that raw as hell.

Like, you're not drafting him to play football right away. You're drafting him because of his raw tools and what he brings to the table as an athlete. And I think in the seventh round, I draft those guys 10 times out of 10. That's what you did with Kenny Willekes. That's what you do with Brian Cole. It's bringing in guys that, at their worst, are great athletes. I was talking to Daniel Jeremiah at the Senior Bowl, and he was talking about how scouts view players. And he said, the reason why scouts really like Mekhi Bectton is because he could have a terrible day at practice the worst day you've ever seen and the next day he's going to wake up six foot eight three hundred ten pounds and it's freaky athletic and that's what you know really a lot of these traditional scouts

and rightfully so why they look at players that maybe aren't perfect technique wise still need to develop still need a lot of different things it's because you know what what you What you can't teach, you always hear that, what you can't teach is their size, their athleticism, quick twitch muscles, all that stuff. I think they did a really good job. The Vikings did a good job of adding those types of players where it made sense. And if you go through the stars in the league, I mean, most of them are the freak athletes. You'll always hear coaches say, hey, I don't care about athleticism if the guy can play football and things like that. And there's truth to that.

Anthony Harris came out of college at 183 pounds, and now he weighs 215 or 220, and he's one of the best safeties in the NFL. So guys can always develop. There's always outliers. But usually it's the freakish athletes who end up becoming the good players. And I agree with you on my old show. I used to call it draft nihilism, which means you just draft as many guys as you possibly could get your hands on because you realize that you don't know which ones are going to work out. And I've asked Mike Zimmer about this

before, like, how do you know if a guy's got high football IQ? And he's like, well, you know, you talk to him and everything else, but you don't really know until like the third week of camp, who has a big heart or who has you know uh the the smarts or who's picking it up or who wants to treat this professionally there have been guys before who are more interested in you know their youtube page or whatever than they were in studying the playbook and then they're just gone even though they were a really good college player because it's so different so i totally agree with you take those swings and i think that they took swings the right way you either get freak athletes or you. Take those swings, and I think that they took swings

the right way. You either get freak athletes or you get guys with high production, and they've had a lot of success developing those types of players over the years. So the last thing I wanted to do here, Austin, was I made up stats also for some other guys that I think have a really good chance of being Rookie of the Year, and starting with Joe Burrow. I'm going to say that Joe Burrow will have 3,800 yards, 26 touchdowns, 14 picks, and will win six games and rank 18th by Pro Football Focus. Is that reasonable for Joe Burrow? I don't think I hate it. I don't think I hate it. Right now, he's currently projected as the 10th ranked player among quarterbacks in terms of passing yards at 3,700, you know, we're projecting him. What I need to consider,

what I want to think about more is how abbreviated will this off season be? Because I think for the quarterback position specifically, if you are not given an opportunity, the full opportunity to throw with your receivers, learn the offensive system, all of these things. And I know he's had the playbook for a while now. I know that he's been on zoom calls and all that stuff but if you're not on the football field throwing with AJ Green throwing with T Higgins Tyler Boyd working behind that offensive

line trying to get you know demand the huddle or demand respect in the huddle that transition is going to be tough like it's not going to be easy with an abbreviated offseason to go in and hit the ground running especially behind what is objectively one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. And that includes Jonah Williams coming back, the former Alabama offensive tackle that we really liked coming out. Like, it's still a very bad offensive line, way worse than what he saw at LSU. I think with Joe Burrell, we have all the confidence in the world that he's going to develop into a good player. How quickly he develops into that player, I think there is part of it is the abbreviated offseason.

And talking to our quarterback analyst, Bruce Gretkowski, a former Bengals quarterback, Raiders quarterback, he brings up how important the offseason for a rookie is, that first offseason, first opportunity to meet the coaches, meet the players. That camaraderie he spoke to was super important. And Bruce is a rah-rah guy. If you know anything about Bruce, he's a rah-rah guy. He wants that camaraderie. He wants that respect.

He wants that familiarity, that chemistry to really have success. Because he said that plays a key part in avoiding the biggest rookie mistake as a quarterback, and that's thinking on the football field. If you're thinking, if you're nervous about what the receiver is going to say, A.J. Green, if you're nervous what the coach is going to think of that decision, you're going to make mistakes. You have to have the comfortability with T. Higgins, A.J. Green, Zach Taylor, the offensive line to make mistakes and know that they're behind you,

know that they're going to have your back when you make those mistakes. So I think that camaraderie, that chemistry can't be understated. I think you could easily see him have a slow start. People start to second guess. Why did they draft him number one overall maybe first three, four weeks of the season? But regardless, I think as he gains experience, you're going to see the Joe Burrow that was the highest graded quarterback in all of college football this past year, one of the better prospects we've ever seen. I think you'll see him at some point this season. It's just when does it kick off?

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and Craig Hodges to discuss the Michael Jordan documentary on what they are calling the final dance. Visit betonline.ag and use the promo code BLUEWIRE to receive your new welcome bonus and check out all the action. BetOnline, your online wagering solution. It's a whole other podcast, but massive overreactions to early results for rookies could be an entire series. How about Daniel Jones' first game against, what, Tampa Bay last year? to early results for rookies could be an entire series. How about Daniel Jones' first game against, what, Tampa Bay last year? Like, oh, everybody was wrong about Daniel Jones.

Look at the game he just had against Tampa Bay. Like, okay, just, you know, Ryan Leaf won a couple games, so, you know, it does happen. Jamarcus Russell had a couple of good games from time to time. But, yeah, I agree with you on the offseason part. I do think that if they start training camp on time and training camp maybe even a little bit early to give everybody an extra week or something like that, if they can work it out with the Players Association, then they can make up for lost time. We are lucky enough, you and I are on a Zoom call right now,

to have so much technology in this world, more than we had the last time that there was a bit of a sample size with this, with the lockout, that I think that these guys can catch up pretty quickly, especially since I also think that college quarterbacks are farther along than they ever have been before in their lives, you know, going from college to the NFL. But it's going to be a rocky ride. The only thing that gives me some confidence in Burrow and his chances to win Rookie of the Year are just that they've got weapons, man. I mean, if A.J. Green is 100% healthy, Boyd is a good player too.

Joe Mixon is, you know, when that offensive line breaks down, he's the perfect guy to be able to dump it off to and break three tackles and get you some yardage. I think for a supporting cast, the offensive line is abysmal. That's a big problem. Burrow was able to hold onto the ball forever if he wanted to at LSU. But having those playmakers is kind of unusual for a guy that gets trapped at number one. No, no, I agree.

I think he has a ton of weapons, like T. Higgins, Tyler Boyd. And if A.J. Green can actually play a game this year, it's going to be super important for him. I also think, I mean, the defense is young and trying to improve. I think Zach Taylor, everyone I talk to, Solomon Wilcox, who's very, he's got a lot of roots in the Cincinnati Bengals front office and in that locker room. He is very confident that Zach Taylor is doing exactly what you need to do to change the perspective, to change the leadership, to get an understanding that these players can

win football games in Cincinnati. And that's not easy. Like philosophy change, culture change is not easy. It's way easier said than done. And everyone I talk to that's played in the NFL brings it up first and foremost. That culture is so important in a locker room. So hearing that from Solomon and Bruce Gretkowski, I feel confident. I agree.

If training camp does start on time and they're able to, you know, practice on the football field together with ample time and given a full preseason as well, or even a slightly abbreviated preseason, I could see Joe Burrow coming out of the gate pretty hot. I did see today that they want to have locker rooms separated six feet between everyone. It's like, good luck with that when you have 90 players. Where are you going to put them?

They're going to make, like, did you ever watch, what was the Ja Rule thing? Oh, Fire Festival or something. Yes, Fire Festival. Yeah, the Netflix Fire Festival thing. How they had just these white horrible tents with cheese sandwiches and all that stuff. That's where they're going to be. That's the undrafted players. If you're undrafted this year, you get a white tent, a blow-up bed,

and a cheese sandwich, more or less, in the NFL. All right, so let me just ask you, what receiver you think is going to lead the NFL in receptions, or not the NFL, but the draft class in receptions in year one? Man, that is tough. Looking through kind of rookie projections, and I mean there's a good chance that Justin Jefferson does get fed a ton of targets this upcoming year because of just the opportunity he's going to have.

But I think equally saying that, I think the receiver that's going to have the most opportunity and the most targets and therefore probably the most receptions it's going to be Henry Ruggs Henry Ruggs of the Las Vegas Raiders is going to get peppered targets John Gruden has been looking for a dominant receiver for a long time I mean he tried to make the trade for AJ Antonio Brown and obviously that didn't pan out he ended ended up feeding Darren Waller, a wide receiver, tight end convert a ton of targets this past year. And here's the thing. Everyone says, well, Henry Ruggs is a deep threat, and Derek Carr doesn't throw down the football field.

Henry Ruggs is going to run a ton of short and intermediate routes, and you're going to watch him running with the football all the time. I think they will take shots with Henry Ruggs, but I imagine that John Gruden has a plan to use Henry Ruggs at and near the line of scrimmage a ton in 2020, playing to Derek Carr's strengths, obviously the short accuracy. He's one of the better short accuracy quarterbacks in the NFL, playing to his strengths, and obviously Ruggs' strengths as well, in that he has good ball skills, can handle things over the middle, and obviously taking the distance if given some space. I think Henry Ruggs ends up leading the all-rookie receivers in reception

just knowing that he's going to have so much volume, so much opportunity in that Raiders offense. Yeah, definitely. And Derek Carr, I mean, he is good at getting rid of the ball quick sometimes to his detriment. But I loved that pick for the Raiders and for John Gruden there. And actually I've liked a lot of the things that Vegas has been doing under Gruden. But this year, it's like, okay, now you got to make this work.

Also, I think Jerry Judy has a good chance. I mean, they're going to throw to Sutton a lot, as they should. He's very, very good. But they want to see what they have in Drew Locke. And I really like what Denver did, getting these extra playmakers for him. Give me the sleeper. Give me the guy that no one would be talking about right now who has a good chance to be the offensive ROI.

Oh, man, sleeper. That's a good question. I think, you know, looking at, you know, the receivers that were drafted and you bring up Jerry Judy, I really do like KJ Hamler too. And I think if he gets a lot of volume, I think injury would have to happen for that though because it's going to be so hard as the third receiver especially with Noah Fant getting more involved in the offense it'll be tough to get the volume to be offensive rookie of the year I think

Jonathan Taylor as much as you know running backs don't matter he's going to get a ton of volume like it's what that's what matters I mean if we're talking about actually winning offensive or defensive rookie of the year you look at you know Kevin Cole one of the data scientists here at PFF recently did a study looking at defensive rookie of the year it's like if you get a ton of tackles you're going to win it like linebackers have won it so often at that position because of the tackle numbers or sack numbers and i think you need to accumulate a ton of stats a ton of you know long stats and not not rate stats and i think that's where a jonathan taylor makes sense for offensive rookie ofookie of the Year.

You could see that potentially, or receivers like Henry Ruggs or something along those lines. And I think that's where I'm sitting. I think sleepers, you've got to kind of keep it to guys that are going to get a ton of opportunity, and I think that's where I'm sitting right now. There's also the fact that Jonathan Taylor will no doubt run for 200 yards against the Vikings because the Wisconsin and go for things like that. Just that always happens with the Vikings, things like that. So when they play

in Indianapolis, there's no doubt about that. That's going to happen. Austin Gale, your podcast two for one podcast with Mike Renner is amazing. And during draft season, I stole all of your opinions. So I really appreciated the education. You guys also have a lot of fun on the podcast, and people should absolutely go find it. I don't have your Twitter handle right in front of me. Let me guess it. Is it PFF underscore Austin?

It's PFF underscore Austin Gale. I have the last name on there. I don't know why. People tell me I should shorten it, whatever it may be. But, yeah, it's PFF underscore Austin Gale. And I appreciate the praise for two for one drafts, man. Mike and I started that last year and had a ton of success out of the gate. We really liked doing it. We've had some great guests on. We'll have to get you on when we get closer to the season. Well, I would really appreciate that. And I can just give you back your opinions that you gave me today. That'll

be my prep is listening to what you said. And I can say it back to you. So make sure you follow him, PFF underscore Austin Gale, G-A-Y-L-E, and 2 for 1 Draft Podcasts from PFF, and, of course, PFF.com. And appreciate you coming on. We'll do it again soon, Austin. Thanks, man. Of course. Sounds good.