Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - Which Vikings stats projection could be the most wrong?

Episode Date: June 22, 2023

Matthew Coller and Jonathan Harrison discuss Mike Clay's projections for the Vikings and which ones have the biggest chance to beat or come short of those projections. Plus a hilarious tweet about Justin Jefferson spurs a discussion about players with "ceiling" Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Purple Insider is presented by Oakley. Express yourself. Build a look that's made for you. When you wear Oakley, there really is more than meets the eye. Try it for yourself. Oakley is not only the best looking, but the best quality. So head on over to oakley.com for more information today. Hey everybody, welcome to another episode of Hot Routes here on Purple Inside. I'm Matthew Collard here. And, oh, I'm sorry. I forgot to put on the shade at tonight's events. Yes, the show is still presented by Oakley Sunglasses. And, you know, it's an interesting time of year, Jonathan, because we're in a little bit of a break here for a couple of weeks.

And you never know when NFL news can break or when an NFL player such as Tyreek Hill can make the news himself, as he did today. So, you know, that's what's going on. But it is funny that when you flip over to NFL Network or you follow the NFL Network or ESPN, and it's sort of like, will Aaron Rodgers win 13 games with Jets? Like, oh yeah, well, I mean, I guess there is some time to talk about that now

since there is no other real news items to discuss. So earlier in the week on the podcast, talked to Mike Clay about his projections. It's also projection season. And, you know, so there's some fun things that we can get into. But I also had some fun scrolling through the pro football talk headlines. And that's another, I mean, for me, this is a fun time of year because anybody who says anything anywhere becomes a pro football talk headline. And then also on Twitter, there are a lot of accounts who are very desperate for continued

engagement. I don't know if Twitter is paying these days for engagement, for likes and retweets. It does not seem that they are, but some people certainly act like those things pay out and try to come up with the most absurd takes that you can find. There's a good one that I want to bring up that I was laughing at today. And it's just my reason to stay on social media. There's no other actual reason to stay on social media except for how funny it is. But if you listen back to the show from the other day

with Mike Clay from ESPN, or if you read the newsletter or just exist in the fantasy world at all, we talked, I mean, you know who Mike Clay is, right? He's one of the top guys out there. And every year him and I get together in June and we go through his projections for the Vikings, which I think is a really fun thing to do. Kind of get the fantasy perspective. But one of the things that he does that is really funny is, and I don't mean it's sort

of like the good fellas funny. How well, like funny as in that no one else does this. And I love it. He projects every defensive player as well. Like how many tackles snap counts are like, you're psychotic, but that's the best. And that's why he comes on the show. And so we went through a bunch of those things on the show and in the article kind of breaking down every one of his projections and i was curious

jonathan because i know that you saw it what of one of his projections or a multiple if you have it stuck out to you as the most wrong and i always pick on him about the fullbacks the depth receivers like really you think that Troy Dye is only going to get like 76 snaps this year that's interesting I just give him a hard time about that because those players are incredibly difficult to project what they'll do in small samples and so forth but after looking through them did you have one or multiple projections for the Vikings that you thought I I don't know, man, this one could be way off? I think, I don't know that any are really that far off because Mike Clay does incredible work, not just with the Vikings, but with all 32 teams, which is incredible to be able to do and be able to cover all of them and do these kinds of projections like that, as you guys talked about on the podcast the other day. But I think for me, the one that stuck out the most was Jordan Addison getting 766 yards.

Because if that happens, and we talked about this, what, two, three weeks ago on this podcast? And if that happens, you've got yourself a pretty good wide receiver and you've got yourself kind of a receiver that went above and beyond probably what you would have expected out of him this season and if he gets 766 yards five touchdowns uh 57 catches with the other pieces that are on this offense that one stuck out to me the most because I think we talked about and you kind of convinced me that 500 yards five six hundred yards is probably a good bar for where you should expect him to be in his rookie season. And especially considering he hasn't had a whole lot of off season activity, training camp time or practice because of the injury or whatever they're holding him out for.

Yeah. As you're bringing it up. I think that one stood out to me the most was Jordan Addison getting that many yards. And for me, TJ Hawkinson not busting over 100 receptions, considering he was kind of on pace to do that already this last season in the minimal time he had with the Vikings. Getting him a little bit closer I think would have jumped out to me. I also do like Nick Mullins getting a game, two touchdowns, one interception. Almost 300 yards in that one game. That's

pretty good. Pretty good turnout for the backup quarterback. You're doubting Nick Mullen's single game performance stepping in in a week 18. I think that's very unfair. So yes, on the screen right now are Mike Clay's projections if you hadn't seen them, but all you have to do is Google Mike clay projections and you will get this uh along with everybody else though the one that i would question i i think that going um with the tj hockinson pick expecting more and think about how high the bar is there to expect more when he's listed with this stat line as the third best tight end and yet i also have that in my mind of man Kirk could be going to TJ Hawkinson all the time I guess where I was focusing a little bit is the running backs because I think that they are the least known of all these things and Jordan Addison of course is an unknown as well but we

know Jefferson Osborne Hawkinson we could kind of whittle down the target share to either Addison is going to get something like that or he's's going to take targets away from Osborne and Hawkinson, or they're going to get more because he gets less. And those are the only real options. But with the running back position, I think Madison is going to end up with 200 plus carries and he is going to be their three down type of guy. But the battle between Wong Wu Chandler, and I don't know if Dwayne McBride is going to be in this battle or not. I mean, seventh round pick. A lot of times those guys, you know, who knows whether they even make the team get on the field.

If the Vikings don't love what they see, they might go out and get another running back. It really depends with him. I think it was a reasonable draft pick, if not a good draft pick for somebody that draft analysts liked. And if you watch his highlight reel, it's very likable, but that doesn't mean he can play NFL running back right away coming from UAB. So to me, it's Wong Wu versus Ty Chandler. And basically with this projection, it's like, I don't know. And that's the correct way to approach it. But it has the potential to be the most wrong.

And I think that both of those guys have the skill, the talent to make it very wrong. So right now he's got 270 yards for Wong Wu and 305 for Ty Chandler. But if either one of those guys breaks through and starts taking carries away from Alexander Madison, both of them have home run potential, especially Kenny Wongu. Well, I mean, he's immediately one of the fastest running backs in the NFL as soon as he touches the football. And he does have at least enough experience over the last three years that he should have by now picked up how to play running back. And I guess when it comes to last year, I do think that there's something to like, they didn't trust him to put on the field

and maybe they should have, but there's also just that Delvin cook always ate up all of the carries all the time. And now there should be much more patience if Kenny Wong Wu has to learn on the job a little bit. This should go for just about anyone, but also I don't want to downplay Ty Chandler and how well he did in training camp and preseason. These guys could actually make for some very exciting battles that I don't know how much Kevin O'Connell is going to play the starters when it comes to preseason, but he might have to kind of play significant players because there's battles to be solved in the secondary and at the running back position, a wide receiver backup wide receiver. And that's another one that could

end up being wrong. If you squint at Jalen Rager and he's only got five catches. I think that one has the potential. so it's not really like where is Mike Clay wrong and you know Mike Clay is awesome to us on the show so that's not what we're trying to do we're more of saying like what could change there significantly and I think that that's probably the biggest spot is if Wong Wu or Ty Chandler takes off either one of those guys have the potential to, I don't know if they will entirely take the job away from Madison, but have the potential to be in a legit rotation.

Probably all three of them aren't going to be in a rotation, but at least two. Yeah. And you've seen going back and looking at some of the Rams offensive numbers over the years that when they didn't have that number one guy, they, they, they really split those carries between their backs. They never really let anybody get over those 200 yards. So if one of those guys steps up and shows that they can handle a bigger

load than what they did last season, or than what they allowed Alexander Madison to do last season, that there, there could be a significant amount of carries taken away from Madison. And that could equal Madison dropping down to 600 yards and one of those guys popping up to 400 or 500 yards on the season. So, yeah, I think I agree with you there that that's the position that could change the most based off of what either of those two guys do in the preseason and in training camp. And on the defensive side, I don't have to pull it back up, but he only has one-fourth of a sack for Harrison Smith, which is side, I don't have to pull it back up, but he only has

a one fourth of a sack for Harrison Smith, which is a funny thing that you have to do. If you're projecting is like percentages of interceptions or sacks. Like, so you're leaning slightly toward, he doesn't get a sack. I think Harrison Smith gets like four sacks this year that they're going to blitz him a lot. He's going to play at the line of scrimmage a lot. And I don't know how bold that necessarily is because of who the defensive coordinator is. But if they move on from Daniel Hunter, they're going to have to be blitzing all the time,

sending all sorts of different people from different places, which could result in seeing Harrison Smith get a lot of sacks. The other thing is, too, that at this moment, I do think they're going to use Josh Metellus a lot. And Mike and I talked about that a little bit on the show, just about how hard it is to figure out where Louisine fits in. But he's only got 140 snaps for Josh Metellus. I think that this franchise really likes Josh Metellus. He was great on special teams last year.

He's a versatile player. He's a very intelligent guy. I mean, that's really important at that safety position. We were talking about this out on the practice field about how different positions require different things. Everyone has to be smart in the NFL. If you're not, you're just not going to figure out what to do out there, and you're going to look like a fool.

But when it comes to safety, I think it's a really high IQ requirement position because there's just a lot asked. There's different places you have to play, single high, two deep, different alignments that you have to play, a lot that you have to understand in terms of route combinations. And a lot of times we see smarts kind of supersede athleticism when it comes to that position. Anthony Harris is the ultimate example that kind of sharpened my eye to that idea. But I also think that Anderson Dayho

had a really good understanding of football as well and was another guy that fit in really well with Harrison Smith. So, I mean, I guess I wouldn't be completely shocked if Josh Metellus not only plays a role, but could he compete to start? Is him and Cam Bynum going to keepwis seen on the bench like you i guess we are kind of deferential to first round draft picks the same time it wasn't brian flores's pick so he's

gonna play whoever he wants to play and that gives the potential then right now and since i took it off the screen i'll just read it to you uh with um snap, he's got obviously Harrison Smith playing like every snap and Bynum starting with him, Lewis scene four 65 and Josh Metellus one 41. Uh, I think those splits might actually change. They might actually flip in the ideal scenario. Lewis scene would be playing, you know, something like 500 or more snaps, or maybe just straight out wins the job and then takes off and becomes a star but if that doesn't happen he could end up not seeing a ton of the field so that that is this is a year

i don't know how you see this jonathan but a lot of times in training camp battles we've been like who is cornerback number five and and this year is very different from that. I think that this year has the most training camp battles since I started covering the Vikings in 2016. Well, yeah, you have the entire corner back room. Who's going to get the starting role? Who's going to be the backup? Who's going to be the nickel corner?

That entire room is basically a battle going forward. And as you said, it seems like this team really does like Josh Metellus. You heard what Kweisi said to Peter Schrager, viewing him as kind of the unsung hero of this team this season. And with where that depth chart looked going into last year before Louisine's injury, it seemed like Louisine had a mountain to climb to get above Bynum and Metellus. So

if that hasn't changed, if what they've seen in the minicamps and OTAs, and I know you can't really take too much stock from those, but from everything that you were saying and that everything that we've heard and read, it seems like that's still kind of the pecking order for safeties is that same thing where Louisine's behind those two guys and uh that's not a good sign for their first ever draft pick but here we are a year and a half later and we're still talking and we're talking about lewis scene struggling to get on the field so that that's definitely a battle you've got the linebackers too who's gonna who's gonna take the reins there yeah like you said it seemed especially on the defensive side it seems like everybody in the defense is fighting for a position.

Whereas on the offense, it seems pretty much settled outside of that running back room. Everybody's kind of settled. Maybe wide receiver three, the depth chart in that part of the offense could be up for battle. But everybody on the defense seems like they're fighting for a spot and there's a whole lot to be grabbed there. And Brian Flores has a lot to kind of weed through in the three, the month-long training camps that they have coming up.

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that's made for you yeah i'm not like in hurry up and get to training camp mode because um i'm not like in hurry up against training camp mode because um i'm gonna enjoy the summer as i you know play a little golf here before things get really intense but i am really looking forward to these camp battles because there have been times in years past where if you fell asleep at the wheel on the sideline during a training camp practice it wouldn't really matter because everything was basically resolved i truly like maybe it's a big day against san francisco last year or when kellen mond and sean manion had their one chance with cousins out with covid last year and neither one of them rose to the occasion at all and then they both ended up getting cut so there will be notable practices along the way but i think that this year is going to require more concentration who's making the catches how

are the coaches responding to the players who's getting the snap counts all those things at a little bit of a higher level than they have been in the past because so many of those positions were just resolved from the minute that they started training camp. And that's not going to be the case now, which also makes projections harder to make at the very beginning. And those will obviously change quite a bit. Ryan asks, am I stupid for having some optimism about Rager having a full season and off season in the system? He was brutal in spot play, but can he be a big play threat or is he a lost cause? So my thing with that is Jalen Rager was traded for right before the season. TJ Hawkinson was traded for on a Tuesday of a game week on the road. TJ Hawkinson went to Washington, caught like nine passes and got his blocking assignments

right and looked great. I have no excuses for the, he needed a full off season type of thing. Usually if a team is trading away a first round draft pick for almost nothing, there is a reason for that. And they're always going to the coaches kind of be positive until they no longer can,

which is, we heard that with Laquan Treadwell a lot of times, not that Mike Zimmer subscribed to that, but most normal coaching staffs will be like, yeah, which is, we heard that with Laquan Treadwell a lot of times, not that Mike Zimmer subscribed to that, but most normal coaching staffs will be like, yeah, you know, he's coming along, he's figuring it out and we're bringing him along and so forth. And he just needed a full off season. But anytime the coaches have to make excuses for a player, I start to really question it. Now, I personally think that Jalen Rager should be in the running back battle. I look at his body and I look at his skills and I think the guy is not Cordero Patterson,

who is a total freak, but the guy is good with the football in his hands. He could run people over. You remember the special teams coach, Matt Daniels, describing his body in a very not safe for work way. He was very excited about his body because he really is like strong and quick. I think he's a guy that should be in the backfield as a running back.

Cause I just don't know that he can get the details of playing wide receiver. And I don't think a full off season is going to make any difference. He didn't do that in Philadelphia. He tracked the ball very poorly down the field in Philadelphia. And we saw the same thing last year, not necessarily the ball tracking, because I think they threw

one deep pass to him. But just even when he was asked in very small samples to do receiver stuff, and I think it resulted in a pick six against Indianapolis when he actually had to be out there. I don't know that there's much trust for him. I also think that they brought in a lot of UDFA receivers and they've got more competition. They should be excited about what they've seen in very small samples from Jalen Naylor.

I just don't see a reason to kind of carry this on, except for maybe they know they have to eat the entire dead cap hit. And that's a reason to create more cap space with releasing Delvin know delvin cook and trading zadaria smith because you might have to eat that at some point i just don't see it i i just don't see it and i i that excuse it's hard if you get traded to a new team but it's hardly impossible by week 10 i mean after he'd had the bye week and everything else he's still not getting

on the field like i, I don't know. There's a reason for that. Jason says Rager and Wong Wu will not be on the 53-man roster week one. They will both be beat out by others. Well, I agree with you on one of them and strongly disagree on the other. Kenne Wong Wu is one of the three best kick returners in the league. And I should just continue to clarify that the new rules do not mean Kenny

Wong Wu doesn't return kicks anymore. Kenny Wong Wu will return kicks. It only means that if you're a horrible kick returner, you can call for fair catch and get the ball to 25, which is a joke. It is completely ridiculous that you allow teams to get that benefit and not have good kick returners. But Wong Wu, if they kick to him, he will return it because he could take it back for a touchdown. So even if he just completely stinks it up in this training camp battle, which I don't really expect him to do with the experience that he has and also the opportunity here in front of him, he was with the second team and the first team mixing in with Madison and Chandler was

behind him in minicamp. Now that doesn't mean a whole lot yet, but that is the way that it was playing out in minicamp so far. And also, I mean, right now they have a full running back room. They would have to bring in somebody else and then be so unhappy with Wongu that they didn't even want his great kick returning. Are you going to give his kick returning to somebody else probably not Rager though there is a good chance that Jalen Rager is not on the team because they end up looking at it and just want to keep somebody

else as a depth wide receiver and find no purpose for that and it does kind of bring up the like do you remember any good trades right before the season that the Vikings have ever made? I mean, they've brought in some guys off waivers and stuff. I remember Super Bowl champion Blake Bell was once brought in and he didn't really play for the Vikings, but became sort of a player for Kansas City later in his career. Tremaine Brock, Kari Vedvik, Chris Herndon, Ross Blacklock. The names are not very uh inspiring and I think that you you just once your team is set your team is set if you mess around too much you're probably just going to end up wasting future draft capital I think that's the case

for Rager am I missing somebody though I mean unless you're arguing like Sam Bradford I guess was the only one I got right that's the only one I can think of that had any modicum of success. And he still went, what, eight and seven that season. So I don't know, or seven and eight or whatever it was. I don't know. I think I agree with you that once you're at that point, once you're into the end of July and you're getting into opening training camp camp there's no reason to mess with your roster and make a big trade like that because it just it it makes it seem like you're questioning what you did the entire rest of the offseason you're it seems like you're kind of trying to make good for what you didn't do for the last five months and that's probably not a good sign for what your season has in store for you or flail

at filling an injury spot which was the chris herndon thing but they didn't have to do that because i i like the way harrison smith put this when he did his press conference and we're like harrison are you going to survive with players leaving and he was like it's not like they didn't replace him with anyone like there are other people yeah and that's but that's why you have to build a deep roster. I was listening to a podcast with Steve Palazzolo and I think it was Greg Rosenthal, the NFL.com guy. And he was talking about, like, if you want to be a great team, you probably have to have 40 really good to great players. Or at least, like, good average to above average to great. And that's one way to look at i mean you also have

to have usually hall of fame level talents if you're going to win a super bowl but if you're going to go deep in the playoffs you have to have like beyond the 22 starters you probably have to have a whole other layer of good players or the best injury luck in the history of the entire nfl which the vikings had in 2017 where they didn't lose any players on defense. But even if they had, they had depth on that team where you could go a layer down on the offensive line. They had some decent backup offensive linemen.

You could go a layer down on the defensive line. They had a few guys who could fill in and play, not necessarily for, you know, Everson Griffin or whatever, but actually, no, they did because Griffin was out in a game against Washington

and B-Rob was in. So that's the whole point. If you're going to be a great team, you've got to go at least one layer down from the starters and have good players. And that's not really the case for the Vikings now when we're not even sure who their starters are going to be. But that's kind of one way that I've started to look at kind of roster construction and what you actually need.

I forget what the point there was, but I thought that was a really, a really interesting way of looking at building a roster and what it takes to actually be successful. Derek asked the question, don't tell me what the question was because I've already lost it. It's already in the past and we don't talk about the past. So Derek says, do you guys really think Justin Jefferson would play this year

without a new contract? Seems okay right now, but I'm not too sure yet. Oh, he's playing for sure. He's playing. That's 100%. No question about it. Justin Jefferson will play if he does not sign a contract extension because he has zero leverage not to play.

All he would be doing is just getting fined. Um, that The Vikings have all the leverage because that's the CBA. And the CBA is not kind to the players. It's probably one of the worst CBAs in professional sports. But in this case, it benefits your team. So I guess you can respect it. But if he were to hold out, he would just be sitting there getting fined over and over and over again. The, if you have a great rookie that you draft in the first round, you can control that guy way beyond what his actual contract is for. His contract is for four years, but you get a fifth year option and you could franchise them theoretically twice. I mean, by the rules three

times, but the third time ends up becoming like the highest paid salary and then some. So usually you don't want to do that, but you can draft someone fifth year option, then franchise tag them. You can hold onto them for a long time. We are nowhere near that with Justin Jefferson. He doesn't even have to sign a contract right now. He could wait until a whole another year and then sign it then. I think that's what's happening with Nick Bosa right now. He could have signed last year, played out last year. Of course, he's the defensive MVP, so helps his case a little. And then he can sign now if he hasn't already. I haven't been tracking his contract situation, but this happens all the time where

guys, just because you're eligible to sign an extension doesn't mean that you're on the cusp of either signing the extension or losing him. If the Vikings don't get an extension signed with him through even next year, they will enact the fifth year option, which they already have, by the way, they've already exercised it, but they would actually have to use it as opposed to just having an extension. And then after that, they would franchise tag him. So, I mean, I don't think that there's any chance you're losing him anytime soon. It's really just, if you get to that point

where you're using the fifth year option and talking about the franchise tag, then it starts to get ugly. Then it starts to get to that discussion of like, well, is he gonna try to force his way out? That's why the best option for him is a short-term deal. So he could leave if he wanted to after a couple of years, but there's yeah. And, uh, you know, Derek says his first three years have been unprecedented.

And what I'm saying is like, that's fantastic. Um, but it doesn't matter. And what matters is the CBA. That's, that's what matters. And in this case, uh, Derek says all rules don't apply to everyone. No, they actually what matters. And in this case, Derek says, all rules don't apply to everyone. No, they actually do. In this case, they do.

In this case, the rules actually do apply to everyone who's a first round pick that the Vikings have all of the leverage in this situation. If he sits out, they will just let him sit out, especially in a year where you're rebuilding. They would let him sit out and they would find him and find him and find him. And he will run out of money.

I mean, the thing with the Neil Hunter is that he skips a mandatory mini camp and drops 50 K now to you and I, Jonathan dropping. That's a lot. Okay. Would be not great, but to Daniel Hunter,

the guy made 20 million in cash last year because he is not on his first contract. Justin Jefferson does not, not, not only that, but it's not worth it. It's just not worth it. Like go out, play, have success, continue your superstardom, and then the contract will come. So I'm not saying that it's going to all work out beautifully with roses and flowers. If it gets past week one, I'm going to be a little concerned about what next year looks like because then it could start get a little dicey,

but he's not doing it this year. Anyway, so Jonathan, I had teased at the beginning of the show a tweet that I saw that was just ridiculous, just too good, just too good. And the reason that I continue to have Twitter is just stuff like this.

A Packers fan who sort of like covers the team. Covers the team-ish. Like, I don't know. What does covers the team mean anymore? Like, I don't think this is like a reporter. I think it's just like a fan who started a thing. So, you know, I don't know. Whatever.

But a Packers content creator said that Christian Watson has a higher ceiling than Justin Jefferson. And I thought at first, like, okay, man, I like a good troll as much as anybody else. It's like when, you know, it's like that meme about Steph Curry's not a good shooter or whatever. Like, I like, there's a reporter out of Philadelphia who does this intentionally all the time. He'll tweet out some totally preposterous takes. So everybody quote tweets him and then he laughs about it. I like that bit. That's a funny bit. This apparently wasn't a bit, or at least didn't seem that way by the responses from this person to other people. So he actually thinks that Christian Watson has a quote higher ceiling than Justin Jefferson, to which I would say,

I don't think you understand how anything works with football or ceilings or football. So anyway, not the point though, not the point, just funny, but it did make me think about ceilings and players who are not currently rookies because that's all they are is potential right now. So guys who are not currently rookies, but we feel that they have not reached their ceiling yet. So who comes to mind for you for players that you could actually say they have a ceiling? And Christian Watson is one of them. It's just not Justin Jefferson because no one is Justin Jefferson. But who comes to mind for you? Players who still have ceilings yet to potentially reach?

I'm going to go with kind of an easy one right off the bat. Trevor Lawrence, he took that step last year, and we talked about it a couple months ago, and kind of fell on that bandwagon, or jumped on that bandwagon. Went 9-8 this last season, 4,000 yards, 25 touchdowns, only eight interceptions in his second year, which is a great leap. Helps to have a good head coach instead of the joke that is Urban Meyer in his first season. So Trevor Lawrence, I think, is getting close, or he's actually finally starting to get towards getting to his ceiling, whereas as opposed to his rookie year, he wasn't anywhere near because he just didn't have the infrastructure around him.

The support staff around him just wasn't good enough for him to get there. So Trevor Lawrence jumped out right away to me in this conversation because he took that step last year, as I said, 25 touchdowns, eight interceptions, getting there towards the ceiling that we all expected of him after watching four years of him in college, just dominating the ACC, dominating college football for those four seasons, and then being drafted number one overall. That's the one that stepped out right away to me. It's weird to say, but I think Justin Jefferson's there. He's only in year three. And yeah, he had 1800 yards, but

this guy is 24 years old, only in year three. What else can he do other than just get better? I mean, he hasn't maxed out his potential. I mean, when we get to age 27, 28, then maybe. But right now, he can still get better. He can still add things to his game. And I think that's really exciting as a Vikings fan. But he's getting close to his ceiling,

but I still think there's still more growth there within Justin Jefferson to reach that. So those are the two that jumped out right away. I mean, I could just keep going through draft classes and just picking out guys, but those are the two guys that at least when I read the question immediately popped out to me. You know, with Jefferson, I think when you're a superstar player of that level, you have to keep getting better in order to have the same results. And I was watching Mike Tomlin's presentation to his team, and he talked about how the expectation for every player

is that they continue to get better every year. And so now what Justin Jefferson saw in the last half of the season, really the last quarter of the season, really the last quarter of the season, because you go to his last three games and he was what, like 30 yards, 15 yards, 40 yards in the playoffs that teams are going to cover him in preposterous ways in ways that, you know, we've only really seen from Calvin Johnson, Julio Jones, like the all-time great wide receivers. And so I think with Jefferson, it's finding ways to battle that, that even go beyond this year because he's going to continue to face it. And one of the things that he went up against that I'm sure that everybody took notice of

last year was Jair Alexander pressed him and played him super physical. And Jeff Okuda actually did the same thing. And, you know, by super physical, I also mean a did the same thing and you know by super physical I also mean a little illegal if not very illegal but they're not going to call it all the time so that's life and that's also every single elite wide receiver faces that press coverage and I know that Kevin O'Connell talks about well you know we're going to move him around and everything else but you have Jordan Addison that probably needs to spend a lot of time in the slot. You have KJ Osborne, who's been way more successful

in the slot than outside statistically. You have a tight end in TJ Hawkinson that also needs to move around a lot and only plays about 50% in line. So a lot of times you're going to have Justin Jefferson as the true outside wide receiver and if teams are going to press him he has to be able to beat it now that's not to say that he hasn't been beating it but the best corner in the league was able to slow him down and jair alexander and maybe wear the right cleats next time i don't know but it's just that that i think that there's going to be so much of that next year that you got to find a way to work through that. And that's why I was writing about with

Mike Clay's projections. He has Jefferson regressing by a couple hundred yards. And I actually agree with that. I think that the ball can be spread out more than it was last year for one, but also every year it gets harder. And we see even elite wide receivers. Jerry Rice did not reproduce 2,000 yards or whatever every single season or whatever his career high was, like 1,800 or 1,900 yards. Didn't do that every single season. And the same thing goes for Calvin Johnson. He has the all-time record, but he didn't get the all-time record every year and neither does Cooper Cupps.

So there's always going to be those adjustments. And he could be better, but his fantasy stats aren't better but we'll know it by seeing him and what the coaches say and everything else so I do agree that he can continue to improve Justin Fields is the player that comes to mind right away and Matthew brings this up in the comments where the ceiling is is a great discussion though because will he be able to improve enough to the point where it's not just can you be a good enough passer it's it is there even potential there to say he could be an above average passer because after uh josh allen's first couple of seasons and i know this is just going to be the guy that gets brought up every time. But season three and four are huge for the quarterback's progression.

And they basically said by not drafting Bryce Young number one and trading out of that pick that we believe he's taking a step. So that step has to be big. And with Josh Allen, I never would have guessed that he would make the step that he did. Of course, it was helped out by having Stephoniggs. Is DJ more a Stefan Diggs? I don't think so, but I do think he's good and that their weapons are now better, but not to the point where they're just going to drag him there. I think the processing issue is going to continue to be there. The sacks will probably continue to be there still with his athleticism and arm talent

raw arm talent the ceiling and that doesn't mean there's a great percentage chance that you hit it but the ceiling has to be ridiculously high the ceiling is he's a top five quarterback in the league but the percentage of chance of hitting the ceiling is not that high i guess that's the way i would look at it is it's a little more complicated than just like, oh, well, you know, if he, if it hits, it hits and he's great. Or if it doesn't like the, the most likely scenario, the, you know, 50th percentile scenario, or however you want to put it is that he becomes a better passer with better weapons and a better offensive line. And he starts to win them games, but still has these weaknesses that are drawbacks and by the end of the year Chicago is talking about like do we want to give him that big extension are we sure

but the running does balance that quite a bit the standard for how good you have to be passing when you can run for a thousand yards is much lower and uh you know we saw that from Mike Vick years ago if he could be Mike Vick which ago. If he could be Mike Vick, which he put up running yards like Mike Vick, Vick was not the best in terms of completion percentage, had a rocket arm, big plays, and won a lot of football games by running the ball and not always being the best passer. So it is crazy to say that someone's ceiling is Mike Vick, but that truly might be for Justin Fields based on what we saw last year. It was crazy with Justin Fields. The first five or six weeks of last year, whatever it was before they played the Vikings, this man had no interest in running, like just

none. You would not have known that he had that in him. And then all of a sudden the light went on, of course, against the Vikings. uh then he becomes what he becomes the other player I thought of because you're right you could go back through draft classes and go well this guy hasn't made it yet this guy uh Chris Alave of the New Orleans Saints really impressed with him last year with Andy Dalton throwing him the sports ball and I think Derek Carr throwing him the sports ball will be a lot more successful. And I don't know if he could be better than Garrett Wilson, but those two can continue to go like this. And I think he could be like a hundred catch guy for them as he kind of takes over that role as the

centerpiece of their team. So an interesting discussion. There's a lot of other players that we could talk about, but those are a few. Next question I had for you is colt mccoy is going to start for the cardinals this year how about that what a career for colt mccoy uh i want you to give me the quarterback who you were most shocked that they ever succeeded and who you would be most surprised if they had success this year because for me clearly the guy i would be the most surprised by is Colt McCoy because that team is horrendous. The coach has never coached before. Yeah. And we've seen a lot of Colt McCoy in his career, and he is very much Colt McCoy. So that's number one for me. What are your answers? For the guy that I was surprised the most that they succeeded, it's got to be Case Keenum. I

mean, he's number one there. You didn't expect him to go and have the season that he had in 2017. I mean, yeah, he had the pieces around him to be able to succeed, but to be able to do that week in and week out with a head coach that kind of wanted to just get you off the field as quick as possible week in and week out and was kind of saying it at the podium as well, that's a lot of pressure for a guy, especially as the pressure mounts throughout the season, as your team continues to do well,

continues to win and continues to climb up the standings of the NFC case kingdom. Number one in that department for me, the guy I'd be most surprised if they succeeded this year, Baker Mayfield. Yeah. He's got great pieces around him, but he's had those. He had those. He had those in Los Angeles. Didn't do so much. I mean, yeah, it's a middle of the season switch for him, but he's also had, he's also been given opportunity after opportunity to do something. And he just hasn't been able to put it together in the NFL. So he's one of them. I want to say

Anthony Richardson, not because I don't like him. I really do like him as a quarterback, but that Indianapolis team is just rough around him. I don't know that it's going to be that good this year, and I'm hoping they slow play it just for his own sake and that the pressure doesn't get mounted on him because it just doesn't look good right off the bat. I want him to succeed, but the rest of that Indianapolis team doesn't scream a team that's going to do well,

and so getting Gardner Minshew in there is probably the smart idea. Let him kind of take the early beatings and then bring in Anthony Richardson when you feel he's ready. So I think if Richardson succeeds this year, that's a huge bonus for Indianapolis. I think it'd be really awesome if he did. I think for me, it probably has to be Rich Gannon because yeah. Okay. So when I was young, I had a lot of football cards and stuff. And I remember having some Rich Gannon, like Kansas city chief cards and Vikings cards, and you play video games and he was a backup quarterback or he was rated pretty poorly. And you're like, okay, whatever.

I don't remember five games of seeing him as a kid, but he was just never in my view at all as someone that I was thinking about. And this is being totally nuts for the NFL, but never really thought of Rich Gannon for anything. And then all of a sudden the guy goes to the Raiders and goes completely nuts especially in 2003 winning the MVP like okay I would have never I mean they're they're and back then there were so many journeyman quarterbacks there's so many journeyman starters that you would have this

guy go to this team and this guy go to that team you'd be like oh yeah okay that team's not serious about winning or whatever and they're just trying to fill that spot. And oh, they're a team that has Rich Gannon starting. Like, who cares? And then the man just figured it all out and had John Gruden's offense and great weapons and incredible offensive line and must have developed along the way quite a bit. And it didn't last that long, only a couple of seasons. But I never saw that coming in like a million years.

Because you could say Kurt Warner, but I never even heard of Kurt Warner. But I'm talking about when the team goes into that season, you go, oh, you know, Rich Gannon, I don't know. I'm not worried about them at all. There's a few guys like that. I mean, the Carolina Panthers once upon a time with Jake DeLome that I could not have predicted that Jake DeLome would have made a Super Bowl. I was a fun player to watch. So there are those randoms that

kind of step up like that, that you never expect. But that was the one that surprised me the most. As far as what was the other part of the question? Oh, I already answered the other part of the question, but you know, in terms of like who would be a little bit surprising to me that actually could step up. You mentioned Anthony Richardson. You could see it because he has the talent to do it. Desmond Ritter is the guy for me. And I just want to preface by saying nobody knows nothing when it comes to quarterbacks. So if I'm wrong about this, then, you know,

if you're listening, there's a big old shrug happens. I just don't see it. Iens. I just don't see it. I just don't get it. Like, I didn't see it in college. I didn't see it last year. And I don't know what I'm supposed to be seeing. If I'm Atlanta, I'm calling the Vikings, like maybe send a text or use WhatsApp or something

so nobody finds out. And I was like, hey, are you guys getting rid of Kirk? Because like, you know, we could probably use a real quarter. They have so many weapons. They have drafted all these guys. Drake London had a good season last year. Someone throw the ball to Kyle Pitts for God's sake. B. John Robinson, Patterson is there. Some other running back who had like a thousand yards and an offensive line that they've built up. They got everything there. And they got a dude who i don't know can actually be an nfl quarterback you're kind of wasting a year where your team

might actually be good in a division that's not that impressive they're weird to me and i don't really understand why they uh yeah handled things the way they did that division's there for the taking it is very much nfcish, where there's a couple teams where they could make that run and take that division, but then there's just the bottom of the barrel. But the Atlanta Falcons have everything, as you said, to put something special together this season. And they're going with Desmond Ritter, which is really confusing.

We talked about it when Derek Carr was on the market and kind of shopping himself around. That would have been a great spot for Derek Carr to go he chose the Saints also another good spot for him because they've got receivers there as well but the Falcons were there they had a good enough draft pick to go up and get one of these guys and they just like we like this Desmond Ritter guy you guys don't trust us but he's here and he's gonna do good and it's like is he though he didn't do that well in college he wasn't that great he was third fourth round i don't even remember what third round third round draft pick you're really banking your franchise on a third round draft pick when you

could have gone up and got one of these top draft one of these top quarterback prospects from this year or gone out and signed a quarterback on the the free market or traded for one, that's a, that's a really risky call for them in Atlanta. Seems like they should have tried to jump ahead of Carolina to try to get that number one overall pick because Bryce young with a lot of ballers there could be pretty fun. Uh, so to finish the show, I've got some match game for you just based on pro football talk headlines, because I mean, I respect the fact that they continue to have headlines at this time of year but some of them come off as a little inane I would say so I made match games out of those so all of you watching jump in the comments and give your answers to

these obviously as a joke like your joke answers and then I'll tell you what the real answer is and the real answer is less funny so give your your jokes. All right. This is a headline, Matt Stafford, and then the colon, we feel confident in blank. What does Matt Stafford feel confident in? Nothing. He's always injured. So it's never anything that he's confident in because he's always nervous about what's around the corner for him. So nothing. I was going to say his beard game that, you know, Stafford was early in his career, kind of looked like me where he looked like he had no ability whatsoever to grow a beard. And then once he did, it looks pretty solid. I mean, a little scruff, but a little kind of scraggly, but that's okay.

You're a quarterback. You're supposed to be a gunslinger. I would also say if you were doing a little more serious, like confident in, I don't know, throwing the ball through a brick wall, confident that he will be stuck in traffic would be another one because it's Los Angeles. So anyway, you can share your la jokes but the answer to that question is van jefferson fantastic he is confident in van jefferson what a time to be alive these only get better by the way uh this headline from pro football talk demico ryan's the texans are in blank purgatory purgatory well i was gonna go hell like that too yeah a callback from derrick with the uh matt stafford helping fallen maidens while drunk at the parade yeah that uh the reporter fell and i think she got pretty badly hurt and he kind of

just wandered off but you know uh not not the look for Matthew Stafford but yeah I think the Texans realistically that's not really true like they're not I this offseason was pretty good for them no man's land would be another answer the Texans are in actually the texans are in the nfl would be an answer the texans are in texas just as a reminder to everyone that the texans are indeed in the nfl the correct answer from the headline is a really good spot all right it's that's what i'm saying like do people click this this is the ultimate of offseason headlines. I just want to know the football fan who's like, oh, really? Let's see what else he had to say.

And that's the only thing. Color me intrigued. Yeah, right. Tell me more about how he thinks they're in a good spot. But I guess, you know, they are long-term, just not today. All right. Gardner Minshew says Anthony Richardson has been blank. Good.

Here. Well, that's not funny. I don't know. You can do better than that. That's like a real headline. You're not trying to guess the real headline. Trying to make a joke. Anthony Richardson has been fast.

I don't know. I don't know what to do for this one. You did fine on the first couple. This is a disaster know what to do for this one you did fine on the first couple this is a disaster i'm struggling for this one i don't know why i i was gonna say in the bathroom a while like anthony richardson has been blank uh in the bathroom a while that's for that's what he is have you not watched match game on the game Show channel? Come on. Help me out here, people. Who's still watching? Us?

The answer is improving steadily. That's, again, just mind-blowing. Again, I'm intrigued. Mind-blowing stuff here. And summer headlines are too good. All right. Nick Bosa, people don't know how good blank is how good

again i'm struggling with this one you may have to go and i'm gonna have to think of think of an answer here i went with uh steamed clams is what i went with people don't know how good steamed clams well it clams is or whatever. It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter. This game doesn't matter. It would be a great headline if he was talking about some very random food item. Now that I might click on it and be like, oh, steamed clams, not steamed hams, which was a Simpsons joke.

Are you just opting out of these answers at this point? Part of me wants to answer them. Part of me is nervous that you're going to make fun of me again. I also gave these to you beforehand. I didn't tell you the real answers, but I gave you the options. Show prep. I did show prep, but now you're making fun of me. So now I'm nervous. Well, what did you write?

What did you say? How good money is because he's about to be paid. Okay, that's good. See, that's not bad. It's not bad. You don't have to come up with brilliance of like steamed clams. It's Javon Hargrave. People don't know how good Javon Hargrave is.

I actually think people know how good. They saw his contract. They know how good Jav his contract they know how good all right patrick peterson said we have the pieces it's going to come down to blank it's going to come down to mike tomlin not tripping a kick returner again oh i like that see that's a great answer there you go you're back at it you're like um you're like byron buxton you sort of uh you get hot and then you hurt yourself and then you come back eventually strong and we think that you've got the potential i gotta read then you can't play center field

again no no no no no never again you have the pieces it's going to come down to i went uh the wind direction it's going to come down to the went uh the wind direction it's going to come down to the wind direction in pittsburgh very windy there in pittsburgh it's gonna come down to the wind direction uh kenny pickett it's gonna come down to kenny pickett it's gonna surprise a hot take it's gonna come down to the quarterback i apologize to everyone for this and i don't know why none of you played along in the comments but uh you're all they were nervous just like i was maybe that's it maybe they thought they were gonna get made fun of um so anyway well that bit was so bad that i were going to continue it every tuesday when we look at a pro football talk headlines that are just

it's a useful tool to know what's going on around the league i'm not like go i mean you could do this with any website nfl.com or whatever but by far the most who cares of all time is that twitter account so anyway um in the summer i mean thank you all for watching this i'm just looking at their headlines now just thinking of some more of these this is just every single every single one is just like breathtakingly boring like you you could not intentionally try to be more dull deon sanders i won't coach in the nfl because i'm too old school apparently oh yeah yeah you could have come up with something way better than that for Deion Sanders. Yeah. The Seahawks will open nine training camp practices to fans. It's great.

I'm sure everyone will have a great time. That is a news item. All right. Anyway. All right. Summer headlines. You know what? Maybe next week I will write some myself that are fake and then well

you'll have to guess which one is an actual pro football talk uh summer headline so all right well thanks for your time jonathan as always and uh we will be here every tuesday night even though it is the summertime and we'll have a lot of fun as always and And also debuting a new bit on the podcast, which is our random old game. So just we pick a random old game, talk about it, and it's a lot of fun. So make sure you keep an eye out for that. Submit your questions to purpleinsider.com

for fans only podcasts. Plenty to go for that of time to answer your questions. So there you have it. And thanks everybody. We'll do this again very soon, but not the last part. We won't do that again.