Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - Which young Vikings must develop quickly?

Episode Date: June 26, 2020

What can we take away from the small sample sizes of Armon Watts and Kris Boyd? Is Holton Hill still in the mix? How does Garrett Bradbury's progress impact the guard positions? Are the Vikings more likely to go 6-10 or 11-5?  Read Matthew Coller's written work at PurpleInsider.substack.com Fill out the Bluewire survey:  https://forms.office.com/Pages/ResponsePage.aspx?id=BugBBZdAw0aNFUvtuGkgyhnTao1hdWxOjJwTA2fwHGJUN0hUNEhaSExWN0RRRFdCV1ZOTkdHR1IwOCQlQCN0PWcu Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Get Coors Light in the new look delivered straight to your door with Drizzly or Instacart, Coors Brewing Company, Golden Colorado, and as always, celebrate. Hey there. Because you're listening to this podcast, we at Blue Wire want you to know this. Golden, Colorado, and a pair of AirPods. We appreciate you, hope you're staying safe, and want you to enjoy this podcast. Hello and welcome into another episode of Purple Insider. Matthew Collar here and joining me on the show today from The Athletic is Chad Graff. What's going on, Chad? Not a whole lot. Thrilled to be here. How are things going with the new show?

The new show is going really well and I'm very nervous about football and its status and where we're going to end up when people on the pga tour are ending up with covid but uh crossing the fingers and going forward here but i understand that which is part of why not to take a separate tangent but it drives me absolutely nuts when i see on twitter and i was like hey people who get mad about stuff that they see on twitter so here i am joining them. But when they complain like, oh, sports writers don't want sports back because of COVID. Like, are you out of your mind? We at The Athletic laid off 50 people because sports aren't back. I don't need to tell you about how serious it is for us to, you know, actually have sports and people being interested in it. So, yes, sports writers do want sports back very, very badly.

It's our entire career. It's everything we do. And usually it takes over more than just being a job. It ends up being like a lot of your life, especially during the football season. So yeah, I think we want that. But I don't know, there's in this sort of arena where things have changed so much, there's been many more crazy arguments involving COVID than I ever would have expected, but those are for a different podcast, I guess. So what's kept me sane, Chad, is being able to look forward to the 2020 season because all things considered, there are so many fascinating storylines.

And the biggest one for me is who will emerge to take the spots of the players who left the Linval Joseph, Xavier Rhodes, Trey Waynes, Mackenzie Alexander, and so forth, because there are a lot of candidates. So I wrote a piece for purpleinsider.com about five players that I think could possibly emerge to being the next development project for the Vikings, but there are certainly more than that. So I want to just start out by throwing out a name, and you tell me what you think, and then we'll go from there. I think Armond Watts is a guy that has a great opportunity here. Now, he only played 100 and something snaps last year,

but his week 17, he was the best player, I think, on the entire field in week 17. And the other times he filled in, he made an instant impact. You could see just a different level of power and quickness from him to some of the other players that were trying to fill in on the defensive line last year. And I think he's a big swing man for whether this defensive line can be good with Daniil Hunter and Michael Pierce and then question marks or really good if somebody emerges and he picks up you know a half dozen sacks and can stuff the run and so forth so I think Armin Watts is a really big swing man on this defensive line yeah and I think there's two ways to look at it with Armin Watts on the one hand every time he was on the field last season

he produced even when it wasn't getting a huge opportunity at the end of the season to start and be a factor when starters were resting. But even when he came in on rare third downs or to spell various players, he made an impact every time he was on the field. Now, the flip side of that is why wasn't he on the field more? You would have to think that coaches probably had some sort of reason. And I think overall you would come away with a positive idea of that, just from the sense of he was still a rookie.

He was a late round pick. He had to do a lot in the preseason just to make the team from the get-go. So I do have probably higher expectations for him than you would normally for a guy who played 100 snaps as, I think, a sixth-round pick. And yet, I think he's got not just the potential to, you know, be somebody who is in every third down or who is a rotational player, but depending on, you know, where the Vikings see him, I think there's a chance he's even the starting three technique, which is something I never would have said a year ago. But based off the need there, how much better the defense is

when they have a true pass rusher at three technique. And the fact that he produced every time he was on the field last season, I think there's a reasonable case to be made that he is perhaps next season's a Fadi Adenibo, a guy who just needed a chance and then runs away with that. Well, you bring up a great point with needed a chance, and that's what Armin Watts didn't get early in the season. And I imagine there was a huge development curve from going from Arkansas, where he had only played one season, to getting an opportunity to play in the NFL.

And then it kind of worked perfectly for him to get 15 snaps here, 10 snaps here through games toward the end of the season, and then play that full game in week 17, which I don't want to put everything on and say he's the next superstar because he was good in week 17. But when you watch it back, there's a lot of skills to like there. There's a few pass rushes that kind of reminded me of the Sheldon Richardson days, and they need someone there because that's part two of this,

is you've got to be good, but you've got to have opportunity. So a counterexample would be someone like Eric Wilson, who's good but doesn't get opportunity to prove how good he is. Well, the door is open here very much for Armond Watts to step forward at that three-technique position because Shamar Stephan played too much last year. I think we all agree with that. Steven Weatherly, who was the third down rusher, he's gone.

He's in Carolina. He was rushing over the guard a lot in those situations. Adenimo is going to be playing mostly on the outside, if not entirely on the outside. He was an interior rusher as well. So at very least, there is a possibility for being a rotational player. But I mean, I don't know. I think I might be setting the bar a little too high for him, but I agree with you that that opportunity is there to just take that job, and it wouldn't be the first guy by any means who wasn't a high draft pick for Zimmer who ended up doing

that. Especially on the defensive line, and just to go back a step, that Shamar Steffen signing still is confusing to me. Yes, they needed a three technique, but the fact that they gave him a three-year deal where it's, you know, they can get out of it to an extent this year, but you'd really prefer to at least get two years out of this contract before, you know, you're really able to get out of it. So that signing always confused me. I know that Mike Zimmer, you know, liked the idea of a run stopper there and predicted accurately that it would set up Eric Hendricks for a big season. And that did come true, but we've also seen how much better the Vikings is defensive line is. And really the entire defensive line is when they're getting a pass rush from

the interior third down, you know, is, is a bit of an exception. And so I don't think you can apply this rule to the entire season and having a pass rusher there, but in new Orleans, when they were getting that pass can apply this rule to the entire season and having a pass rusher there but in New Orleans when they were getting that pass rush from the interior with the no hunter and Everson driven on third down made a world of a difference we saw it two years ago the difference that it can make so I still I don't fully understand that signing far be it for me to question Mike Zimmer of something on the defense, but I think that they need more than just a run stopper there, especially when you had previously Wimbald Joseph next to you, and this season having Pierce next to you. Very confusing to me, but if either James Lynch or

Armin Watts can step up and, you know, at the very least push Steppen for playing time, then I think that goes a long way in helping the Vikings' defensive line. I also have the same feeling that you have about questioning things on the Zimmer defense because it's been so good for so long, even going back to Cincinnati, going back to Dallas, consistently throughout his entire career. And then we've seen adjustments. We've seen player development. We've seen the right moves when it comes to just picking

who should be on the field they signed george iloka and decided instead to play anthony harris now anthony harris has made 11 million dollars they get which is so funny because that was one where i was like why are they signing this guy not playing him he's been great in the past turns out anthony harris is pretty good yeah right exactly and and so usually z Zimmer ends up being right on almost all of these things. Even I was talking on Twitter with somebody about Anthony Barr, and we've always wondered if Anthony Barr was going to rush the passer more, but I really have a tough time saying, well, Zimmer got this one wrong by not putting him on the edge, A, because you have great edge rushers already and Griffin and Hunter there for these years but also Barr has one of the best pass rush percentages when he actually creates pressure and he's made four Pro Bowls. I know that that's not the perfect measure but when you draft someone and they make four Pro Bowls sign a huge second contract and have great pass rush numbers when you decide it's hard for me to say screw that

up Zimmer but I think last year here's going to be my go-to for can we question Zimmer on defense? Xavier Rhodes. Playing Xavier Rhodes was a crime last year. He was clearly beat up. He was not what he used to be. And there were other players like Holton Hill that could have gone in and he didn't do it. So you can question it. And the Stephan one, I don't question having him on the team. I only question playing him as much as they did. I believe he got six pressures in something like 300 plus pass snaps. And teams are throwing on first and second down now so much more. So I think a Sheldon Richardson, a Tom Johnson type at that position is big.

All right, I want you to just tell me who comes to mind for you, offense or defense, when I say, all right, this player has a good chance to develop into something really good next year from the 2018 or I'm sorry 2019 or 2020 class just pick one I'll go with the 2019 class and go with a seventh round pick and a guy who you know I was not all that high on in training camp last year. Oh, Austin Cutting. Hugh, second choice being after Austin Cutting then. Chris Boyd, I didn't think that he had a very good training camp. I wondered, you know, what he was even doing on the team for parts of last season. And then he turned into a very good special teams player who I think,

given all of the change that they've had at cornerback, is going to get a very legitimate shot at, if not a starting role, then a lot of playing time. And the Vikings, they need anybody to step up at cornerback. It can be Holton Hill. It can be the first-round pick Jeff Gladney. It could be the third-round pick Cameron Dancer. At this point, it doesn't matter.

You're going to be playing young players. And the fact that Chris Boyd made a positive impression on coaches last season, albeit in a more limited special teams role, I think at least sets him up to have a very big opportunity. And if he can actually, you know, turn those good reps on special teams into good reps on the defense, that would go a long way for the Vikings. Jeff Gladney, I think I'm high on him.

I think that, you know, he could turn into a very good player. But let's also not forget that rookies have a hard time grasping Mike Zimmer's defense. You look back, Trey Waynes didn't play right away. Mackenzie Alexander didn't play right away. Turns out they're very good players. So if it took a while for them to get on the field, then I don't think you can necessarily just pencil Jeff Gladney in for starting and playing every snap. So Chris Boyd is going to get plenty of opportunity, and it wouldn't shock me if he turns into a pretty good player, even though perhaps a year ago at this time it would have shocked me to say that. Before we get back to the conversation,

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That's SOTASTICK, S-O-T-A-S-T-I-C-K.com, original Minnesota sports-inspired goods, code PURPLEINSIDER for free shipping. What we know, too, is if someone shows that they're good on special teams and he led the Vikings last year in tackles on special teams, that a lot of times they can get on the field. Eric Wilson's a good example. Undrafted guy that I wouldn't have believed in from the beginning. I mean, usually even if someone looks pretty good in practice, if they're undrafted, you go, okay,

well, we'll see. But then he was spectacular on special teams and had the physical skill to be a good linebacker, and he's developed into that. I want to comment on Chris Boyd, but we got to talk about Holton Hill for a second, I want to comment on Chris Boyd but we got to talk about Holton Hill for a second because Holton Hill impacts Chris Boyd in this conversation Holton Hill comes in in 2018 to fill in for Xavier Rose and is largely really good man-to-man coverage he's got the length he's got the physical skills and then he gets the eight-game suspension, actually four plus four, so two suspensions. Not easy to do. But he gets suspended twice.

He also, I think, got penalized or something in a preseason game for taking somebody's head off, which wasn't a particularly great look for him either. And in training camp, every chance Mike Zimmer got, he said something disparaging about Holton Hill. Anytime he's asked, what do you disparaging about Holton Hill. Anytime he's asked, what do you think about how Holton Hills look? And he said, I don't think about Holton Hill at all, or something like that. It was Don Draper, or not Don Draper, that's a hockey. Don,

what's the character from Mad Men? Don Draper's Mad Men, I think. Oh, it is. Okay. I'm thinking Chris Draper is the hockey player. Okay. Yep. There's the hockey guy. Sorry. Okay. It is Don Draper. It's been a long time since I watched Mad Men. But there's that gif where he says, I don't think about you at all. And that was how Zimmer handled Holton Hill. Do we think Holton Hill is legit in this still? Is that a front office thing and Zimmer would have preferred to get rid of him last year? Because there were so many opportunities for Holton Hill to play last year, and he was just simply not on the field.

And to your point about front office versus coaching staff, there was a perfectly reasonable case to just cutting him. The fact that you get two separate suspensions in the offseason in which the Vikings, you know, first of all brought you in knowing that you had a complicated past and saying we need you to follow the rules and go about this the right way. They would have been perfectly reasonable and justified to cut him. Mike Zimmer's comments lend you or lead you to believe that it was at least a topic of discussion. I don't think that, you know, for all of the topics of Mike Zimmer saying you can never have enough cornerbacks, I think Rick Spielman feels the same way.

And so perhaps that was why they kept him around around even with the back-to-back suspension. But just going back to his rookie year, I think he showed too much potential for a team with, you know, a major need at cornerback right now to just pass up and not really give an opportunity to. So I actually think there's a better chance than not that Holton Hill is the starter. I think he, you know, has shown a lot more than Chris Boyd. Chris Boyd is obviously, I think, you know, avoided trouble, and that is a major check in his favor, especially for Mike Zimmer. But I think I would probably pencil in right now Holton Hill as the starter or at least with a big advantage as the starter with Gladney perhaps playing nickel and in the slot.

But there's a lot to be seen. And this is one of sort of the weird parts of with everything going on. It's late June, and we don't have a sense of where these guys will play, which not that you're usually getting a ton out of OTAs and minicamp, but you at least – it's noteworthy to see, A, where certain people are playing, and B, whether they're first string, second string, third string, whatever. So both the secondary and on the offensive line, there's just a ton of questions.

Like, I couldn't tell you who the two starting guards are right now. I would probably say Drew Simia is one of them, but who's opposite him? I have no idea. Well, and that's exactly where I wanted to go. Let me say this about Chris Boyd, because I just went back and watched week 17 again and looking specifically at Watts and Chris Boyd. And there were a few times that he got toasted. Allen Robinson will beat the best corners in the NFL.

So he was matched up against him a few times. But what really stuck out was his aggressiveness and his tackling. And it kind of reminded me of Trey Waynes with his ability to tackle and if you can do one thing really good you've got a chance and so that'll be very interesting to see who's ahead on the depth chart is it Holton Hill or is it Chris Boyd because Boyd has gotten shout outs on a bunch of different conference calls I mean I asked a couple people on conference calls this last week about you you know, why, like I asked Marwan Malouf why they've been so high on him. I think I asked Adam Zimmer why they've been so high on him. And they both said his willingness to learn, his personality, his aggressiveness,

his physicality when they got him in the game. And all those things, they usually point toward some success for somebody. So him versus Holton Hill would be a really interesting battle. And you're right. We've been able to take things away in OTAs and minicamp in the past, but not this time. Mike Remmers playing guard was one of the, like, oh, they're really going to do this. Okay, then.

I guess they're really going to do this because they've got them there at OTAs. And they did. And it was bad. So let's talk about guard and the offensive line because there's two guys from the 2019 class and one guy from the 2020 class that are really interesting here, Drew Samia, Ole Udo, and Ezra Cleveland.

I right now would have Samia as a starter. I get asked about Ole Udo all the time after he played pretty well in Week 17, and I don't know what I'm supposed to expect from Ezra Cleveland I get asked about Ole Udo all the time after he played pretty well in week 17. And I don't know what I'm supposed to expect from Ezra Cleveland in such a strange offseason. I think that that eliminates almost any chance for him to start. I think it eliminates, you know, a chance for him to start, especially week one. You know, maybe there's a scenario where with an injury in week eight or something, he's able to play a little bit more but just the fact that they've downplayed you know his readiness and stress over and over that he's got a high ceiling he's got a lot of potential similar to what they did with Brian O'Neill even though you know O'Neill turned out

to be close to a stud from the very beginning uh they're really focusing more on his potential and talking about what he's able to do his athleticism and talking less about you know how ready he'll be for week one so that leads me to believe that Riley Reif is probably still the left tackle which opens up that second guard spot a ton I just have such a hard time believing despite you know the consistent probably unfounded praise that Pat Elfline gets that he'll actually be a starter again. I think similar to Xavier Rhodes, he kept getting compliments last season when he probably didn't deserve them. I think that happened with Pat Elfline. I just have a hard time, despite those compliments, thinking he's actually going to be a starter. So opposite him, Ole Udo is a fascinating

one because, you know, supposedly they've said he can play guard and tackle, but they drafted him as a project guard or a project tackle, excuse me, talked about all the potential that he had finding him at a shrine game. I don't know that you want to move a tackle who you think has promise down the line to guard, even if, you know, perhaps the only argument against that would be that you've got Ezra Cleveland and Brian O'Neill, presumably your bookend tackles for years to come. So maybe you consider it a little bit more, but offensive tackles are just so much more valuable than guards that if you really truly believe that Ole Udo can develop into a starter slash good starter as an

offensive tackle, I don't know that you want to move that, but at the same time, you don't really have a lot of other options. Drew, it's just funny also that if you, when you're looking at who's going to play guard, that the guy everybody is kind of sure is going to play guard is a guy who didn't play basically all of a rookie season that people kind of thought

there was an opportunity to play. Granted did play very well in that week 17 game, Drew Samia. So it's, I would say it's concerning that the guy that you can write in with a pen as a starter doesn't have really any NFL experience. And I truly do not know who starts opposite him. And Pat Elfline is still in play, which seems crazy to me. He is, yeah.

And last year, Pat Elfline had maybe the most lopsided PFF grades that I've ever seen when it came to pass protection versus run. Like his run was decent. His pass protection was about the worst in the league. And if we're talking about which one of those two things is more valuable, it's not even close that it's pass protection, especially in the NFC North with the players in the middle that you have to go up against.

And I look at it with Pat Elfline, like first impressions die really hard. We know this in sports. If you love a draft pick quarterback and he comes out and is bad, you're going to defend him to the end of the earth. I've tried not to be this guy with Josh Rosen to talk entirely about the two teams that he's played for so far and how young he still is but I also realized that he's been abysmal and just you can't really defend how he's played but even then there's still that part in the back of my head is like I really liked him coming out of the draft, so maybe. And there's that thing with Pat Elfline where in 2017, he starts at center and he was good. He wasn't a pro bowler, an all pro, but he was an average center in his first year, which

takes a lot. And we all thought this guy's going to be the center of this team for a very, very long time. And instead, he has these catastrophic injuries and requires a couple of surgeries, gets way behind, and then comes back in 2018, struggles mightily with those injuries, still recovering from them. And then last year, he has to switch positions, which isn't easy. But still, this thing where he lunges at the defensive tackle and they go right by him

has been happening since Ohio State. And at center, maybe you can get away with it sometimes, because a lot of times in pass pro, no one's over the center. But in the NFC North, they are. They put Eddie Goldman or they put Kenny Clark right over you and they blast right through you. Or they were doing it with Z'Darrius Smith with Garrett Bradbury last year where they just put him right over the center and blast right through. You have to have better play from that position.

But who it's going to be, I don't know, because Samia struggled so much in the preseason and training camp we thought there was a chance they could have another Willie Beaver situation here right so he makes the team he hangs around like you said he only gets in that one week 17 game I don't really know what to expect from him and with Udo you're going to really move a guy positions in an offseason like this. I just don't see that as plausible. Plus, he's a good pass protector. He's got long arms, and he's gigantic, kind of like Rashad Hill. But he's also gigantic, and that's not what fits on this offensive line.

So Gary Kubiak said the other day, the old, we're going to play the best five. But I just don't really know how this works. And with Ezra Cleveland, same thing. I thought maybe there's a chance that he competes for left guard to get on the field in his first year because he's the best five. But I can't see that now either. And it just feels like Pat Elfline is going to be back on this offensive line. Pound for pound, and perhaps this is a little outlandish, but there might be a chance that the Vikings' four of their best five

offensive linemen are tackles. If Drew Samia turns out to be, you know, what he looked like in camp, if Ezra Cleveland plays as I think, you know, his potential could be, Rashad Hill is a good swing tackle. Ole Udo, you know, has shown potential. Like, they don't have elite offensive tacklesyudo, you know, has shown potential. Like, they don't have elite offensive tackles right now, you know, perhaps outside of Brian O'Neill in a lot of his games, but they actually have depth there, and they have next to nothing at guard and even center. I think

center is a spot that is going to be fascinating to watch this season. The Vikings hyped up Garrett Bradbury, opposite of what they did for Ezra Cleveland, opposite of what they did for Brian O'Neill. They said, we drafted an older player. Garrett Bradbury is not coming in super young. He's had experience, played against Clemson defensive linemen. This guy is ready to play from day one. He's the first center off the board.

This guy's going to be good. And then he came out and was not very good. And granted, I think you can say when you look at what he did last season, four of his games were just abysmal, as bad as you could possibly get. The rest were kind of average. So, you know, if you're looking for positives, perhaps you say, hey, 12 out of the 16 games, you know, if you're looking for positives, perhaps you say, hey, 12 out of the 16 games, he wasn't terrible. However, you know, if you take out any players worth four games,

they're going to look pretty good. It doesn't matter who you're pointing to. So that one really concerns me. And I know that there's a learning curve. I know that it's hard to play center right away. But the Garrett Bradbury one, he absolutely needs to be better. There's just no way around it, especially if he's not going to be getting much help from his guards. If his guards are, if Garrett Bradbury is your best interior lineman, he better be taking big strides forward because if not, I mean, to me, like you brought up to Darius Smith getting lined up right over him. That's got to be insulting to Rick Spielman.

Like other teams are game planning that they want to go right after your first-round pick. They want to take their best players and just say, we're going to pick on this guy all day long. If you're Rick Spielman sitting up in the box, that's just got to be a real humbling feeling watching them pick on the guy that you picked and then said he's going to be ready to go from the beginning. Yeah, and there's two things that you might want to learn from there if you're the Vikings.

I mean, one, if you are drafting people for anything to do with the run, you've probably made a mistake. If you're drafting a guy, and I think Bradbury does have the potential to be a very good run blocker, and maybe he gets to an average pass blocker, and at that point he's a good player. But if he doesn't get to an average pass blocker, and at that point he's a good player. But if he doesn't get to an average pass blocker, it doesn't matter how good you are with the run. And the same thing goes for Pat Elfline. When you've drafted your offensive line with that in mind, you're just asking for trouble because in every big situation,

what are you doing with the football? You're not running when you need to go 65 yards for a touchdown on a final drive in the fourth quarter. You're passing and then those situations the Vikings offensive line straight drop backs just got demolished by those teams and even uh New England did the same thing with Trey Flowers in 2018 where over Pat Elfline they just lined up Trey Flowers over him and it was disastrous for the Vikings and that's the thing is they have this Achilles heel that other teams know how to handle. And if you are a good defensive mind

and you make adjustments like Mike Pettin or Bill Belichick, it's a problem for you. And I don't know who's going to be starting there. I kind of think there's a low key chance that it's like Dakota Dozier ends up starting there. He was the backup last year and they brought him back. But I actually agree with your assessment that the best linemen here probably are tackles. How about five tackles

start on the offensive line? Rashad Hill can play tackle and then Riley Reif and then we'll move Ezra Cleveland to center. That's what you would do on Madden. So I don't want to hear any complaints here. I want to talk about Troy Dye for a second because there's some excitement for Troy Dye from the draft community. Dane Brugler for the Athletic and Mike Renner for Pro Football Focus. A lot of people really like Troy Dye. And I wonder if you think that his presence means anything for the future of Anthony Barr. Because I mentioned earlier that it's an interesting topic. Barr's contract, what he brings to the table.

We know how much Mike Zimmer loves him. But when you're looking a year out from now and seeing a $15 million cap hit that you can get yourself out of if you want to, I don't think what Barr brings to the table. I do think there's a lot of hidden value there. I believe Mike Zimmer on a lot of hidden value of his intelligence and his uniqueness in his body type being 6'5 and 265 pounds. There's very few linebackers who are like that.

But that's not worth $15 million in the salary cap, especially if this year is played largely without fans and the salary cap ends up going down. So I think Troy Dye might have been drafted with that in mind. I didn't actually read too much into it and I just because the Vikings have a tendency of early on day three drafting a linebacker who at worst provides depth uh at best delivers on special teams early and then can push um so I didn't read a ton into it but the salary cap thing if it legitimately goes down this is not a team that's built uh for the salary cap to go down so that would be an interesting spot i i didn't love the pick i i was surprised by it i didn't think it was a great pick um yes he was a tackling machine at college

yes all of these people who pay attention to the prospects far more than I do, really liked him. But to me, it was just more of a didn't fit a need pick when I think still in the fourth round, you can find players to fill a need, perhaps draft a guard. And let's remember for, you know, what the Vikings did drafting Ezra Cleveland in the second round, they didn't draft anybody else really

to help on the offensive line. So that, not until their very last pick in the seventh round pick. So I was a little surprised in that sense. I think I would have preferred them to go with a guard just to, just to have a body who can go against Dakota Dozier or Pat Elf. I'm like, I got to think a fourth round pick would have been capable of at least keeping up with those two guys and potentially pushing for more. Let's not forget Drew Cimillo is a fourth-round pick.

So a lot of people are high on the Troy Dye pick. I can't say I'm one of them, and perhaps I'm hurting him when I should be faulting the front office. It's not his fault that he got picked where he did. But I just kind of see him as a special teamer at least for the next two years and then maybe he turns into something more. Before we get back to the conversation, I want to remind you that there is no shortage of action going on right now

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Use the promo code BLUEWIRE for a free welcome bonus. That's one word, BLUEWIRE. BetOnline, your online wagering experts. I was looking at it a different way that he was rated by most people higher, but maybe linebackers aren't as valuable and he ends up dropping to the fourth round. And Rick Spielman always says, and this is only half true, that they're always looking down the road with these draft picks. Like you weren't looking down the road with Garrett Bradbury. You weren't looking down the road with Justin Jefferson this year.

It was no coincidence you drafted a wide receiver if you just traded your top wide receiver. I don't blame him for that. But I think any time you get past the second round, you're always looking toward what is it going to be in two years down the road. And with Anthony Barr, he is approaching 30. If he loses a step, he's bad. Like right now, he is still fast for being that size

and probably above average speed for linebackers in general, which allows him to stay with running backs, stay with tight ends if you need to, recover quickly on play action, all those things that are the value of Anthony Barr but if he loses a step at 30 years old this guy is not going to be able to continue to play at that height and at that uh that weight you know at that position that requires quickness and speed so they draft a more Eric Hendricks-y type player in Troy Dye who weighs I think at at the combine, the exact same or one pound different from what Eric Kendricks did and also is kind of tall and lanky too,

more like Barr in his 6'3 frame. So I was looking at it as it would be very interesting this year if there was an injury at linebacker and an opportunity there or even a hybrid type of opportunity. And I think this goes for a couple of players for the 2020 class, Josh Metellus, Brian Cole. At safety right now, there's nobody behind Harrison Smith and Anthony Harris, absolutely no one. And the door is open for these other guys, I think, to emerge, or someone to take on the role that they always wanted for Jaron Kurtz.

And we talked a little bit about the depth a year ago and just the fact that the Vikings were built in such a top-heavy manner that a lot of their starters were well-paid, established, very good players. And then behind them, if they were going to get in, you better hope that you hit on your mid-round draft picks or your undrafted guys because they were just so unproven with their depth behind them. And I think that's largely still the case at a lot of spots this upcoming season. or your undrafted guys because they were just so unproven with their depth behind them.

And I think that's largely still the case at a lot of spots this upcoming season. And I think it's part of why, A, it's part of why they didn't trade Anthony Harris, just because, you know, unless you do it before the draft and pick somebody in maybe the third round, I don't know who is going to play safety. But also, that's still a problem this season. If Anthony Harris gets hurt, if Harrison Smith gets hurt, even if Mike Hughes gets hurt, your secondary looks drastically different. Yes, I think the Vikings have the best safety teams in the NFL, did not have major injuries. When you look at it, that rarely happens in back-to-back years that you're one of the healthiest teams. So I think that's a reason for concern. The Vikings had a lot of injury luck a year ago.

They're probably going to need the same if they're going to replicate that kind of success this season. Do you think that they signed somebody? Because as things open up, players can travel to take physicals and so forth that if it's a major free agent, you're not going to worry about it. You're going to sign the guy and then you'll do the physical later, but there are still two dozen decent players or guys with NFL experience out there on the market. Larry Warford is the name that comes up and who knows what he's going to do.

It still makes sense to me with the guard position to do something like that. But safety, corner, there are various positions here where it would make a lot of sense to sign somebody. And I thought it was notable that I believe they still have 87 players and not 90 on their roster. I don't think they forgot about those other three spots and also left a little bit of cap room that we are just in wait-and-see mode to what happens with that cap room with Delvin Cook's situation and Anthony Harris's. But it seems like the door is cracked open for them

to still bring somebody else in here off the free agent mark. It makes a ton of sense. The only thing that gives me pause on that front is the dalvin cook situation and if you're going to say yep we're okay with you holding out we've got alexander madison we've got uh a running game with gary kubiak that we trust with madison and you know elf line and bradbury being capable run blockers then you, maybe that opens up, you know, signing guard depth or signing safety depth. But if you're counting on signing Dalvin Cook to $9 million a year, $8 million a year, $10

million a year, whatever it ends up being, I just, you don't want to box yourself out of bringing back a player of Dalvin Cook's ability because you brought in a depth safety or something. So I think they'll probably wait and see. I think you probably need to get a little more clarity on Dalvin Cook. What is he really, when it comes down to it, going to be willing to sign for? And the best you can try to get a sense of, if we don't give $9 million a year, $10 million, whatever it ends up being,

is he legitimately going to hold out and not come at all? Is this going to be similar to Melvin Gordon and perhaps like week four you can get something done? So I don't know. It's just hard to really fill out the rest of your cap space if you think there's a chance that you're going to sign Dalvin Cook long term. So if I told you that they signed Dalvin Cook tomorrow, I send you a text that wakes you up to say they signed Dalvin Cook. What do you think that contract would look like? Like, what's the first number that goes through your mind? My first thought was something along the lines of three years between nine and 10 a year, somewhere in the 27 to 30 range. And of course, with all of this,

it comes down to guaranteed money and how it's structured and all of that. But somewhere in the 27 to 30 range. And of course, with all of this, it comes down to guaranteed money and how it's structured and all of that. But somewhere in that range of nine to 10 a year over three years would not surprise me and perhaps make sense for both sides. You know, Dalvin, of course, wants, you know, to get paid. He's a very talented running back, I would argue one of the best five in the NFL. And while the plan for most teams is not to pay a running back, look, the Vikings are one of the very few who do run the ball. And I think it is more important on the Vikings to have a good running back than it is on 28, 29 other teams in the NFL. So no, the position is not as valuable as we once thought it was. but I think somewhere in that range could make sense for the Vikings.

So three years, 28 would not surprise me. I've been thinking about more of a five-year extension that's actually three, like a Diggs type of thing. They do it so consistently with everyone that it's the first thing that pops into your mind is would you do five, four, starting with this year, like including this year. So really a four year extension, but you're using this year to spread out the salary cap hits somewhere in the range of 50 to $55 million, half of it guaranteed, something like that.

That's pretty expensive, but it's also not crazy to put it in that nine or 10 or a little bit more million dollar range and then have a deal that you can get out of that for a couple years because when you do look at the age curve for running backs we always act like after their first contract they're just shot and it's over and you should take them behind the shed but historically for a lot of the great running backs the age curve points to more of age 27 age 28 so you'd be signing up for Delvin Cook for 25 26 27 and maybe into his 28 season but even then you know with someone like Gary Kubiak being able to get the

most out of guys or find the next great running back I can see why the Vikings have decided to play hardball here before we wrap up I have two questions for you that can be a little bit more quick answers if you want. Depends on how tired you are. I know, you know, you've probably just been nonstop podcasting. Yeah, going at it every day. Give me a sleeper from 2019 or 2020 class. Somebody that we didn't really dive into that if they emerged that we would be surprised on the sidelines of training camp if we're allowed on the sidelines of training camp uh but you could see it i you know i was not high

on him um if we're gonna stick with the 2019 class another guy that i didn't really see much of in training camp mike zimmer made clear that he was not thrilled with in training camp uh that being wide receiver Dylan Mitchell. I think there were a lot of reasons, you know, why he didn't play as much as some people expected last season. The Vikings did not have a lot of wide receiver depth, and yet he still couldn't crack that. B.C. Johnson was much better.

Alexander Hollins got call-ups before Dylan Mitchell. But, once again, the Vikings, you know, need wide receivers to step up. Dylan Mitchell has a one-year advantage over some other players in knowing the system. I think that battle for sort of the end of the depth chart of that wide receiver crew is going to be incredibly important. The coaches obviously like Chad Beebe a lot, but until he can stay healthy, you know,

I think that's just going to be a question. It was a problem in college. It's been a problem so far in the NFL. So there's a chance that Dylan Mitchell surprises. I don't think I would bet money on it. I don't think it's a probable outcome, but I think there's a chance that Dylan Mitchell is a little bit better than what we expected. And after Mike Zimmer last year in training camp said, these guys don't even know how to line up right, I would think a year plus later, he probably does know how to line up right. So maybe that helps some things. Yeah, it had some concerns with him really from the very start when he gets drafted and his NFL.com profile says he doesn't really like to learn stuff and try.

That automatically sends up some red flags. He clearly is a better athlete than most of the players in the wide receiver room aside from obviously Justin Jefferson but in terms of pure athleticism there's a lot there with Dylan Mitchell and I think that's a good pick I was going to go if we're going to go 2020 class since we kind of talked about everybody else with 2019 uh Kenny Wilkes is an interesting guy a lot lot of production in college, a lot of tackles for loss, a good number of sacks last year. And another one that a lot of draft analysts had is more of a third round pick or a fourth round pick, and he ends up going all the way in the seventh,

that if that situation on the defensive line for rushers on third down and so forth is wide open, he's got a shot to be in that mix if he shows something pretty early all right last question for you is if i told you that uh the vikings went 11 and 5 and then i told you they went 6 and 10 this year which one would you say okay you're lying they did not go which one of them they did they did not go 6-10. I think that they just have too much. I think the offense is going to be better than average. I think they'll probably be, you know, maybe ranked around 12 or something.

And while the defense has so many question marks, I still have a lot of faith in Mike Zimmer to figure out something. I don't think they're going to be a top-five defense, as they've been for most of Mike Zimmer to figure out something. I don't think they're going to be a top five defense as they've been for most of Mike Zimmer's time in Minnesota, but I have too much faith in Mike Zimmer on defense. And while the offense, I don't think will be as good without Stefan Diggs. I think something will probably get done with Dalvin Cook.

I have a ton of faith in Gary Kubiak. So, and I think the other part of this, why I think, you know, 11 and five somehow is more probable than six and 10 is the NFC North. I don't think it's that good. I don't think the Packers are as good as going as far in the playoffs as they did a year ago. Their draft presented all sorts of questions. I think even they are now having questions about Aaron Rodgers and where he is at, you know,

to the point where I now think back to our debate once upon a time about, would you rather have Kirk Cousins on his contract as of a year ago or Aaron Rodgers on his? I think your case for Kirk Cousins makes some sense just given Rodgers' cap number. If even his own team is now wondering how much longer he can play, the Lions are the Lions. And I just don't have any faith in matt nagy

despite some talent that they have on defense in chicago so i just don't think the nfc north is good enough for the vikings to go six and ten and look at the nfc north coaching and say rethink the mike zimmer thing if if you are frustrated at times with Zimmer and you wonder do we really have a great coach here take a look at Matt Nagy, Matt Patricia, and Matt LaFleur are they are they really all named Matt that has never stuck out to me that didn't dawn on me until now nope just this moment uh but I mean even I mean LaFleur goes 13 and 3 so you can't call him a joke, obviously. But drafting Jordan Love, his relationship with Aaron Rodgers, where that goes, I'm not sure that I really trust him. And actually, last year was Mike Pedden's defense that guided the Packers

to having such a great season. I think they were like 16th in offense. So they were not this like explosive offense under this offensive head coach. And we'll see what they do in year two with LaFleur. But I agree with you that going six and 10 would mean that the offense really struggled. And I just don't think it's going to. Gary Kubiak's history does not suggest that with a quarterback as good as Kirk Cousins, he's going to fall off the face of the earth and win six games.

Now, if it was eight and eight, I think we would both say, okay, you could totally believe that. But being last in the NFC North at a 6-10 doesn't seem as likely. Chad, people can read your work at The Athletic. I think you're just at Chad Graff on Twitter, correct? You didn't throw like NFL or Draft Scout or anything else like that into it? Maybe one day once I start grinding some tape more on the prospect. Yeah, I know.

That's right. Yeah, FilmGrinder69, Chad Graff, is where you can find him on Twitter. So always appreciate you coming on. You do great, great work for the athletic. And, Chad, we'll catch up again soon, man. Thanks for having me.