Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - Who are the hardest QBs to project in 2024?

Episode Date: July 1, 2024

Mike Schopp of WGR550 in Buffalo and The Deep End podcast talks about Josh Allen without Stefon Diggs, Sam Darnold and the hardest QBs to predict in 2024 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Hey everybody, welcome to another episode of Purple Insider. Matthew Collar here and joining me on the show, one of my best friends, Mike Shope from WGR 550. Also, the Deep End podcast, deep into fantasy football. And Mike, you are kicking off a new week of the show here, Fantasy Football Week. It's all fantasy guests, all projections, and if you're not a huge fantasy player, trust me, we're just talking about what's going to happen in the football. So that's the secret of fantasy football content. But Mike, great to have you on the show. How are you? Thank you. Appreciate your invitation. Very excited about it. And, you know, I don't know how it happened, but I have

become sort of Mr. Fantasy. I mean, when you were here with us in Buffalo, I think I definitely was not playing very much and I kind of just didn't really get it. Didn't like it. It was even like that. But I've completely gone off the deep end, if you will, and always, you know, look forward to talking fantasy. And you could, I could tell you already doing it. Like when I, I'll often try to, you know, couch a fantasy thought I have on WGR with like, guys, don't, don't freak out. Like, this is really just talking about production of players, right? We don't, you don't have to worry about the F word. which is silly of us probably because 90% of the nation plays fantasy football in some sort of way, which is why I wanted to do this

week, because this is a big time of the year for people doing their fantasy drafts and getting ready for the season. So I think the best place to start out is with Josh Allen. And I am very interested to see what Josh Allen looks like from a fantasy perspective, from a performance perspective without Stefan Diggs, because if you were looking for a big bang moment in his career, pre Stefan Diggs, the numbers are not exactly that impressive. He found ways to win. The scrambling is a huge deal the defense was a big deal but it's not until digs gets there that the actual numbers come along with him and he starts to look like an mvp caliber quarterback now stefan digs is gone and our friend jeremy white was

telling me that the narrative for a lot of people in buffalo is well, it's better to have a bunch of decent receivers than one great receiver. In Minnesota, we tend to disagree with that. But just in general, actually having three elite receivers is the way to do it in Minnesota. But how much do you buy that? How much do you believe in the idea that the ball will get spread out more so that's going to actually be better for Josh Allen. Well, I think you'd agree those same Bills fans were not saying this until Diggs left, right? I mean, I think we kind of liked having Diggs. I'll stick my neck out and say that.

The number one rule of fantasy when it comes to quarterbacks is the massive importance of rushing production. And so Allen is pretty safe. I mean, that might be putting it mildly. He's top two everywhere. He's top one, number one in most places. He's been quarterback one for three years in a row. So it's hard to bet against him.

It's a tough one. But of course, your points are valid, and no one really knows who's getting the ball this year. They have the largest collection in world history of recent second-round wide receiver draft picks. Curtis Samuel, Hamler, Isabella, Claypool, now Keon Coleman picked one of the second round. He also has Dalton Kincaid, who I think is the most common bet

to be the leading pass catcher, at least in some way on this team, whether that's targets or what. I mean, Allen is going to be the Bills all-time leader in touchdowns scored in three years. And that does not count any of his passing touchdowns like he's at 59 for his career I think he had 15 last year two or three in the playoffs I mean that's kind of like that's Derrick Henry so you're getting what some some concern about what the passing efficiency and volume might look like this year is valid. I think they're going to want to run the ball here with all the changes that have happened and how they played in the second half last year.

But at 28, I still think Allen is going to get you his 7, 8, 9, 15 rushing touchdowns and probably get home. Well, and this is where the fantasy and real football kind of cross over in the rushing, or actually the fantasy people are more right. The rushing gets kind of ignored sometimes. It's like, oh, well, you know, he threw for this many yards or whatever. And I guess he ran too. This was even with Cam Newton.

He would run for 700 yards and score 12 touchdowns and be like, well, his passer rating was only 87. Okay, because he was running the touchdowns if we put that into passer rating then it might look a little bit different so i mean i'm not saying people don't understand his impact but i think where you really uh put the right value on it is actually in fantasy because it's a major part of it at the same time i don't even know what to think of a rookie wide receiver because the v have drafted several since I've been here one of them had one catch in his rookie season and what a catch it was but one that was Laquan Treadwell and then Justin Jefferson in his first start went for 175 yards and they were drafted in the same place in the first round

I mean what what are we supposed to think of what Coleman can mean to the Vikings offense when we really can't project rookies very accurately? It's tough. I mean, you do your best trying to figure out what they're telling you in the summer, you know, during mini camps and training camp. You get a little bit more media access come July and August, preseason games, and you try to get a feel for just what the pecking order will be. I mean, they've made a pretty significant investment in Coleman, but he is a rookie and they have an interesting, eclectic sort of collection

of other options. I don't know, in his case, if he has to play a lot further. The way Brandon Bean, the Bills GM, was talking about Coleman during minicamp was about the most faint praise you could ever get from a GM or a coach about a player. How does Keon Coleman look? He was working hard. It's a different playbook. It's a lot different from college. A lot of guys in college aren't even asked to run block. They take the play off. I mean, you didn't really hear anything above that. He's trying. So in terms of Coleman specifically, I'm not optimistic prospect-wise,

especially this year, even though there is that void. But, you know, how do you do it? You just sort of try to do the best you can to calculate it. Draft capital, the team's history of success with receivers and how much they'll play rookies. Kansas City, you've got to really think about it carefully, though. Like, Kansas City is one where, you know, it just sort of seems obvious that Xavier Worthy this year should be in a perfect situation, but I don't know.

They signed Hollywood Brown. You know know maybe Rice won't be suspended that much uh different things can happen and he's the first I believe he's the first Andy Reid first round receiver since he was coaching the Eagles so um it's different every year you do the best you can yeah I would have thought that Sky Moore was going to be unbelievable like his college highlights great and he's going to play with Mahomes. And I don't know, you tell me if you've ever found this correlation of, hey, this receiver goes get to play with this quarterback.

I don't know that that's really how it works because the wide receiver position has become so complex that I can understand why Bean is saying that. There's so much to it now. You have to line up in every different position. A lot of the routes where you start your route, you're not sure where you're going to end until you see how the defense covers you. There's a lot of complex layers to this. Some guys get it pretty quickly and some guys don't. But I don't think that playing with a great quarterback just equals, hey, the guy has a better chance to succeed. No, right. It isn't that simple. What you want to see from all these rookies or anybody is

their target share. Yards per route run. How often are they getting the ball? Is it down the field? Is there value to these plays? How much is the quarterback or the coordinator both turning to them to contribute? And while I think fantasy players can take landing spot too seriously and overreact to it, maybe at the expense of how good was the prospect, it's not irrelevant. Jackson Smith and Jigba was everybody's wide receiver one last year. He went to a team that did not have a reputation for being pass happy, yet had DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett under contract healthy. There was kind of a capped ceiling on JSN. Plus he got hurt in the preseason. And that's another thing you got to closely monitor, whether it's a rookie or Travis Kelsey, as was the case last year. If

they get injured in training camp, they can kind of carry that through the season. And it's not something teams really talk about. The player doesn't talk about it. Nobody wants to admit or sort of make an excuse about being injured, but it's something where you want to be extra cautious when you're drafting because those injuries can be super important. Well, I have other questions for you about Buffalo, but that would not be the fantasy podcast at the heart of what we're doing here because what I wanted to talk to you about, Mike, is really the most interesting and challenging players to project.

And if we're being honest, Josh Allen's not that challenging to project. Good is most likely and great is possible. And those are really the only two options for him at this point but i made a list of the guys that i really don't know what exactly to do with and if i were drafting fantasy wise i would think am i getting a steal or completely blowing this and a good guy for this is actually samold. I want to hear your opinion on what you would do with Sam Darnold in this mix, because I don't think it's that hard to talk yourself into if this guy's playing with Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison in this offense that, and I think he's going to play.

I think he's going to win the quarterback competition that he might win some games and stay in and he might put up some numbers. Darnold could be Ryan Fitzpatrick-like in high entertainment value, maybe some big games for him, probably not going to win more games than the good quarterbacks. But if they really want to develop J.J. McCarthy over this year on the bench, Darnold could put up a lot of numbers. There's also the possibility he only makes it to week three. So like, what would you do with Sam Darnold in the mix of all these quarterbacks?

Well, it's, you know, two different questions always, right? We've got, what's the team situation? What are their incentives? And then as a fantasy player, what do you do about it? I think in terms of the Vikings, I mean, I would ask you, but you've already said it, Darnold plays week one. Fine. If I'm in a one quarterback league, I don't really need to worry about it because I'm going to have, you know, there's so many better options. Sure. I mean, there could be big numbers. Mullins and Dobbs did that. So that makes sense to me for Minnesota,

but I won't need to worry about it. In a two-quarterback league, that's interesting. The issue becomes late in the season, and a lot of what's being drafted in the summer is these best ball tournaments where you are drafting and then you are doing nothing else all year. And the big money, I mean, it's insane, Matt, as you probably know. Underdog is paying out tens of millions of dollars in prizes, and the whole scene is just crazy popular the the big money is in the final weeks and what would have to happen for Darnold to play the end of the season I mean if they're good and they're winning you know then that'll happen and they'll just hold off on J.G. McCarthy that wouldn't be the worst thing um if they're not then McCarthy's going to play whether Darnold's good or not, I would think. I mean, that's probably what happens.

And they're in a very tough division. So I don't draft Darnold in best ball because I just doubt he'll play at the end of the season. But, you know, in those kind of formats, you're trying to match quarterbacks with receivers stack teams. And so you want some of Minnesota. I've got a couple of these going right now with Jefferson on one and Addison, maybe on another, that's a tough, that's one of the tougher calls to make is McCarthy or Darnold. And to, to, to fill that out,

that comes down to me to who are my other quarterbacks. If I've got somebody like Allen, then I might gamble on McCarthy, you know, late in the year, something changes and I'll do that. I'm pretty safe at the position. If not, then maybe I draft two or three, even thinking I need early season production. That's where Darnold could come into play. I think that he's a scary quarterback to draft from a fantasy perspective because you don't know how long he's going to play. And even if the team says, I mean, somebody brought this up not too long ago,

Nathan Peterman started 2018 and won the training camp competition. Mike Glennon also beat out whoever it was. Was it, gosh, oh, Mitch Trubisky. And then it was Andy Dalton. And Dalton trubisky and then it was uh and don't beat out fields yeah right exactly so that didn't last long for any of those guys and with darnold what you're really asking is how much do you believe that sam darnold was victimized by his previous teams and his previous supporting casts and how much do you believe a quarterback can be elevated by what the Vikings bring to the table?

Because if you fully buy in, if you push that to 10, you come up with Jeff George Vikings, and you're going into the playoffs, or Randall Cunningham, or Case Keenum, or any of the other historical quarterbacks. I've seen it in front of my own eyes where Case Keenum has a great duo of receivers, and it wasn't even just a good year from them winning. He put up a good statistical year

as well. Darnold's going to throw the ball. Kevin O'Connell's going to throw the ball, even though they got Aaron Jones in the backfield. But when you look at Darnold's numbers historically, how can you truly convince yourself that there's 17 games there when he hasn't won and he throws interceptions like crazy and he gets sacked like crazy it's just you have to point to only a few turnarounds that we all know like geno smith it's not even a baker mayfield turnaround because mayfield had previous performance that was pretty good. That's the part where I keep getting a little bit stuck up on. Well, I do think in his favor is one of the most optimal passing coaches, offenses that's out there.

And for fantasy, that's not to be ignored. If Minnesota had gotten to Drake May and everybody had reason to think he was going to start week one, He'd be a very popular fantasy pick. He'd go somewhere around where Jaden Daniels goes, and Daniels might rush for 1,000 yards, but May had the rushing upside too, and you've got almost better than Daniels because it's Minnesota and it's O'Connell. You would just love it.

People would just be hot for it, matching him with Jefferson, but McCarthy isn't May. And, you know, to answer more of what you said about Darnold, Occam's razor is more likely that he's not different. You know, I don't even know if Mayfield really was that different. And he had Dave Canales, which, you know, you would like for him, but a little bit on the lucky side. So, yeah, I think if Minnesota, it depends on so many different things, right?

I mean, if the defense is really good, then you can win with ordinary offensive production, and if that happens, he probably keeps playing. That's really what you have to figure out. But not in too many fantasy contexts will you really have to end up worrying about him. Yeah, he's not number one on my most interesting list figure out but not not in too many fantasy contexts will you really have to end up worrying about him yeah he's not number one on my most interesting list because i don't think a lot of people are going to draft him but i needed your opinion on that since i've been asking everybody

just like do you think this could really happen uh looks good in minicamp jj mccarthy keeper league perspective do you like that long term for him absolutely because you just really don't know what's what's going to happen to the player you know this is McCarthy it's also Michael Penix who is stuck at least for the foreseeable future behind Kirk Cousins but you don't want to forget about him he was picked eighth overall McCarthy was was picked, what, 10th overall. These guys, if you ran the organization, what would you be thinking? That eventually these guys have to matter. We have to find out how good they are. And then we have to dream big or else we shouldn't have picked them. So I think even Penix, who is almost useless this year, probably, not necessarily,

and McCarthy, who could be close to that, are not to be slept on in Dynasty because if you're playing two quarterback, Superflex, Dynasty, those guys, I mean, they're still first-round picks. Penix is maybe end of the first round, even with the receivers that are out there, just because if you get there, then you're looking at picking Josh Allen five years ago, picking Justin Herbert, who nobody wanted in, in fantasy because didn't really like the landing spot. Wasn't that impressive in his last year at Oregon.

Everybody was kind of scared and well, you, you didn't get QB one, but you've got a guy that you can see yourself starting for 10 years, you know, in fantasy and of course, also for the Chargers. So, yeah, those guys, to say the least, still have value. McCarthy and Penix. I like that you use the term foreseeable future because when it comes to either situation, it's very hard to foresee what's going to happen but even with atlanta the reason i liked atlanta's pick of michael pennix even though it shocked me as much as anybody else was i can't foresee what kirk cousins achilles is going to look like

in a year or whether he i mean we've seen lots of quarterbacks at age 34 35 36 that's where their career comes to an end sam Sam Bradford is the same age as Kirk Cousins. He's been out of the league for several years. And sometimes a totally healthy guy has one injury derails him. And maybe he doesn't even end up playing two years in Atlanta, just because we can't foresee what that's going to be like a guy that I can't figure out what he's going to be in Arizona is Kyler Murray. So their offensive coordinator, Drew Petzing, was here in Minnesota. I think he's a very sharp guy. Came up under Kevin Stefanski.

I like how that looks. They drafted. Are they calling him Maserati Marv? No one's actually going with that, right? That was just an invention, but not. I said it once. i had to take a shower immediately after just i said it once it came out it came out but but but i i mean as far as projecting rookies probably one of the easier ones to project a very high target share no matter

how ready he is for that but i just don't know kyler murray 2021 for the first 12 weeks is an mvp candidate there and then the team falls apart the injury happens last year he's just trying to get his feet back underneath him is he like underrated here as a guy that people should maybe he's popular in in fantasy uh circles because he's cheaper he's maybe quarterback eight like he's he's near joe burrow and if you're asking me quarterbacks you don't really know what to do about i would first guy i would think of is jo Joe Burrow because they have weapons. He's had, I mean, a great career already, but there's injury stuff to think about and he doesn't run. So I would much in a vacuum. I'd much rather have Murray or Jordan love than Burrow,

but you don't want to get caught stuck. If Burrow goes for 5,000 yards, I'm more on the side of being a Murray fan. And again, a pivotal factor for him in fantasy will be running. In 2020, he ran for 11 touchdowns. I mean, that's huge. And last year, maybe also the year before, his rushing. And so it's not maybe like you think where the guy's automatic. Murray's not automatic as a rusher, but I think it's all arrows up with the offense, you know, the points you made. Trey McBride is my tight end one this year. The eye test on McBride late in the season was awesome.

And so you see tight ends sometimes take a minute, and he definitely did playing behind Zach Ertz. Then last year, nobody was drafting him, and he ended up being a huge winner for fantasy players. So love him, Harrison. After that, it's pretty sketchy. You have to pick from Zay Jones, Michael Wilson, Greg Dortch, and who knows. But I think, and they drafted a running back too in Benson to go with James Connor.

So I like the value of Murray where he goes in drafts. I'm happy to take him. Yeah, I think he's going to be their whole offense. I mean, I don't think they can run the ball particularly well. And deep cut Zay Jones, but as long as you'll throw him the ball in the back of the end zone, he'll be fine. Like he'll catch a lot of short and underneath passes, but I think he was responsible for taking away like five Trevor Lawrence touchdowns by just not toe tapping correctly last year. The weapons are

a little concerning to me when you're talking about a rookie and you're talking about having to focus on the tight end. Whenever the tight end is the focus of the offense, I go, ah, because the explosive plays are just limited there. And with Kyler Murray, I do wonder, and I didn't watch a lot of him last year because they were horrendous, but is he going to lean on the running game as much because he had the injury before? Like, does he want to dial that back? I mean, I remember at the beginning of Dak Prescott's career, and I know they're not exactly the same, but Dak was a legit running quarterback. And then that just stopped happening altogether at one point.

And he didn't do it anymore. Murray has to do it, but I don't know if it will be dialed back for him a little bit I just think that that makes it a little tricky not knowing if he's going to lean into it quite the same way he did when he first came into the league yeah I would be pleasantly surprised if he did because you know other examples as quarterbacks get older they get hurt and I think Arizona might want to run the ball a lot so there's a beat maybe a cap on his overall production potential. Prescott had that ankle injury. Jackson, you know, for his part, they just wanted him

or he wanted for himself to prove he could throw it. I think it cost them a Super Bowl in the loss to Kansas City. They just refused. And he just, right from the beginning of the game, he would not go. And so, I mean, that's the game, he would not go. And so, I mean, that's kind of what I think about that. But, you know, I think Murray is fine. You know, if you're playing in a standard fantasy league,

and I think maybe a lot of your viewers will be, because this isn't a fantasy show, right? We're having Fantasy Week here, which I'm excited about. But maybe if you have an audience where it's the more traditional home league, Kyler Murray, Jordan Love, Joe Burrow are kind of toward the bottom end of starting quarterbacks, and you might not even want to draft a second one in sort of a regular league. The guy that's maybe at the top of that tier that is very exciting is Anthony Richardson, who it seems every fantasy analyst cannot get enough of. Everybody wants to draft, have all the Anthony Richardson because of the rocket ship potential if he stays on the field.

That's a big if, though. I am a big Anthony Richardson enjoyer. I thought that he would be the best quarterback from that class. Now, C.J. Stroud probably will be. But the Anthony Richardson thing has worked so many times where a quarterback has physical talents and this includes josh allen physical talents that just transcend football this man will be good at football almost no matter what happens uh because at very least even if josh allen never developed the passing he still would have won a lot of football games. Vince Young won a lot of football games based on just being able to run the ball and make a few throws here or there. So even if Richardson is not the sharpest passer,

he's going to put up a ton of rushing yards as he showed from last year. And I think that his command of the offense was shocking considering how they talked about him. They talked about him like, well, you know, this guy needs a year to sit or two years to sit and develop. He came in and ran the offense like he'd been in the NFL for five years. You don't really see that too often. So if he's able to develop, even just throw the ball well or average complete 58% his passes he's going to be really dangerous i i didn't want to ask on my list he wasn't on my list because i see everyone loves him all the time for interesting guys aaron rogers is on my list i make fun of aaron rogers on this

show constantly because i just don't think it's a great model of success to skip mini camp and drink ayahuasca tea or whatever and just do whatever the hell you want that usually doesn't work great and he's acting like he's the MVP quarterback when he actually hasn't been good for several years now so maybe there's some show bias and saying I would just stay the hell away from Aaron Rodgers under all circumstances. I have a tough time thinking that the guy is actually going to play even 10 games this year, but am I, uh, am I, have I been too Minnesotan to just, uh, be down on Aaron Rodgers? I don't know. That's a question for you, but no, it doesn't sound like it. These are reasonable. These are reasonable points. Um, another quarterback that in that same

quote home league, you don't need to ever worry about another quarterback that in that same quote home league you don't need to ever worry about another quarterback that in the best ball universe you might want as your qb2 if you drafted garrett wilson who is a first round pick so i think that's fine but um no i mean it's cousins but five years older or whatever it is in terms of rogers often achilles injury there's no zero rushing elements at all, no rushing touchdowns or anything like that, which in fantasy will get you beat. So no, I don't think you have to worry about him. I think it's a nice team if he's even pretty good though. I mean, I feel like the Jets could be winners, but fantasy wise, he's almost irrelevant.

Okay. I kind of thought the same thing but i wasn't sure if i was just being uh too much uh usually actually we give rogers probably more credit than he deserves because he just always beats the vikings now let me let me go to a hotter one than these these are we've been talking about the fringe guys a little bit here the darn old the kyler murray i looked up every time a quarterback averaged nine yards per attempt or more and looked at what they did the following season so we're talking Chris Chandler 98 Matt Ryan you know there's been a handful Aaron Rodgers even had a season over nine yards per attempt nobody repeated it nobody even came that close to repeating it Brock Brock Purdy, he's got everything still there. I mean, it's not like

so far Brandon Ayuk hasn't been traded. He's still got Kyle Shanahan, the yards per attempt God. Should we expect regression? Should you be scared of Brock Purdy or do we think that Brock Purdy has the Tom Brady? Everyone thinks the guy's going to fall off at some point because he wasn't drafted high and he just never does. Where do you stand on Brock? He's so interesting, right? I mean, if we're going to be like, I don't know if this quarterback in the first round is going to be good. Nobody knows anything.

I think you got to flip that around, especially when there's been all the evidence with Purdy and just sort of give up doubting him. So just from a real life standpoint, there's no question at all how much a fan of his Shanahan is. I mean, he couldn't wait to stuff that down everybody's throats that, no, I'm actually going to play this guy and we're going to the Super Bowl. And they literally did. And they could have gone a second time had he not gotten hurt the year before. So, I mean, I don't think there's any job security question about him. I can't imagine that happening, worst case, before an entire season goes by.

I mean, they have the highest win total in the league maybe. If they end up winning eight or nine games, maybe then all bets are off because they're going to have to pay him at that point, and maybe they'll feel differently. You know, fantasy-wise, there's so much to like. He doesn't have to get to nine yards to be playable in a fantasy context. He comes in around quarterback 10 or 11, I think. And back to the underdog best ball context, McCaffrey, Ayuk, Samuel, Kittle are all grade

A pass catching. I mean, McCaffrey catches Iuke, Samuel, Kittle are all grade A pass catching. I mean, McCaffrey catches so many passes, options available to him that you can win big coupling Purdy with one or even more than one of those guys. With San Francisco, the challenge is knowing which one in a given week, not McCaffrey, who's great every week, but of the other three. But in those best ball tournaments, you don't have to care about that because you're not setting lineups. You're just going to have whoever you have on the team. And George Kittle, once in a while, will give you

12 for 175 and three, you know, that kind of a game. He'll also go two for 11 the next week, but that's tight end. So I think, you know, dynasty-wise, when it comes to Purdy, he's a pretty good investment. You might, you know, he's interesting to think about in terms of trades because you might have somebody in your league that's like all in on him and they could end up, if you could get Jaden Daniels and a high draft pick from, I don't know if you would be able to, because somebody just drafted Jaden Daniels high in that case. But, you know, somebody, Jordan Love or somebody like that, where somebody in your league will give you a player that's right there

or better than Purdy plus something, that's a trade I would make because as much as I can say about how good he's been or how much San Francisco probably loves him, I can't get all the way from he was the last pick in the draft and he's in a perfect system so there's a chance that he just isn't all that do we have ourselves a mark rippin here the uh just this one unbelievable season i doubt it i mean the sample size from him coming in as a rookie that's an unusual thing we're sitting here talking about jj mccarthy and hey maybe they should sit him a year and everything and takes quarterbacks forever

to develop except for whatever reason brock purdy who came in as a as the last pick in the draft which just tells you quarterback makes no sense and probably never will to us but what i think he has is this perfect intersection of understanding everything that kyle shanahan wants being able to see it super quickly and then there's a little bit of doug flutie in the guy there's just a little bit of i need a 20 yard scramble here if he ran the 40 he probably wouldn't run it any faster than any other quarterback, but he has the mentality of making a play, which is all that is more important than can he throw the ball super fast. And I do think that as a society, we often focus so much on how hard does guy throw the ball that we can maybe underrate people like Brock Purdy.

I'm a believer that he's a great quarterback, but not necessarily that he'll repeat exactly what he did last year because it's so hard to do first-place schedules, all those types of things. One more that I want to ask you about that is relevant to Minnesota here because every time I talk about Jordan Love and I talk about how good I think Jordan Love is going to be, the comments get angry because Vikings fans don't want to deal with this for another 10 years and I understand

and it was it was half a season but it was a spectacular half of season and even at the end of the whole season his numbers are great I think he's got the right connection with the head coach in Matt LaFleur to be very good how would you project though because sometimes we do hey in the last seven games this guy did this so that means he'll do it that doesn't always apply and yet I saw our friend Jeremy White tweeting that you know this who would you start a franchise with and they're picking Jordan Love over Josh Allen which is just the absolute insanity so like we've gone too far this who would you start a franchise with and they're picking jordan love over josh allen which is just the absolute insanity so like we've gone too far probably on him but uh i don't know where everybody else stands and love wouldn't be that much younger than well a couple years but because

he sat for as long as he did he's not brand brand new. I mean, you sound like how I feel about him. It was really impressive. For 40% of the season, it didn't look great. And you wondered about, like, was he just sort of running hot with touchdowns? You know, that's really kind of his season last year. But, man, eye test was awesome on him. It sucks, I guess, if you root against the Packers. We're going to talk about 30 plus years of quarterback excellence,

but we might be facing that. I like drafting Jordan Love. What makes him different than Purdy in fantasy, really because they sort of ranked pretty close. But with Purdydy it really comes down to whether you've drafted those other 49er pieces already in terms of love everybody comes later all their wide receivers except for sometimes Jaden Reed and the two tight ends and Marshawn Lloyd if not also Josh Jacobs are all later and people And people really don't know. It's like Buffalo

only better guys where you don't know which ones are going to be the leaders. There's a definite Dontavian Wicks fan club in fantasy where people have got to run to him. But Romeo Dobbs had the production and then there's Reed and then there's Christian Watson, who could be anything, and then Musgrave and Kraft. So building a fantasy team, it's different. It's sort of the opposite from San Francisco, where you can be in the middle rounds and like, okay, well, Jordan Love is good value here, and then I can have my fun the rest of the way drafting the Packers.

And in the big – well, all the big – most of the big underdog tournaments, but the big one, ball mania where week 17 is everybody's obsession you know who's playing whom I think the Packers play the Vikings for the third year in a row in week 17 so you know love is where this is a team agnostic but you want Jordan Love if you have Jefferson you maybe, especially because of the uncertainty at quarterback for Minnesota. You left off Viking killer Bo Melton, who had a bunch of catches against the Vikings randomly last year. Thanks for saving me on that.

Yeah, I mean, how embarrassing for you to have forgotten. I think that's his name. I think it's Bo Melton. But I think that they're going to throw to Jaden Reed a ton. It just, my perception of that is that he surpassed Christian Watson as their guy last year. And right now we're viewing it as, oh, they just have a bunch of receivers they throw to. But from just eye test, seeing him in the game, I think he's the best guy that Jordan Love is going to lean into.

And last year was just learning who those people were and who he could trust. But now he knows that he could trust Jaden Reed. So I would be drafting him extremely high or maybe higher than he's ranked by most rankings because I just think that they're going to lean into him. When it comes to the rookie class, you've referenced it a couple of times. Obviously, if you're drafting just for this year and trying to win against your buddies, you want to stay away from JJ McCarthy. But there's a bunch of these guys that are going to play.

Bo Nix clearly going to play right away. Caleb Williams, Jaden Daniels. I don't know about Drake May, but I think that'll happen fairly quickly because Jacoby Brissett. How would you rank them? Where would you put them? How would you try to project the rookie class? If you were making these picks, Daniels is number one for me.

And I think I'm in a slate minority on that because most people have Williams first. We're talking about this season. And while I like, I mean, people have said it, has any first overall pick landed in a better collection of players, you know, skilled position players than Caleb Williams did? It's the Bears, so it's hard to comprehend. But that's all fine. Williams, or Daniels rather, again, the rushing upside is elite. You know, Justin Fields, but with an organization that's going to turn right to him, committed, new coaching staff. It's sort of on time in that way.

And 1,000 yards is not out of the realm at all for him. And playing week one. So Daniels, for me, who those pass catchers are going to be is a little bit murky. Luke McCaffrey is an interesting sort of late round idea as maybe somebody who he could end up leaning on. So McLaurin there. So I would pick Daniels first because of the running. Williams an easy second.

And then I think May, just because of the upside, if he does get on the field. And I think that could still happen week one. We don't know. I mean, the conventional thinking has been that they'll go to Brissette and just play it very slow, but I think watch out if they don't, because they might end up thinking, well, no,

we don't have anything to worry about here. Like this, this guy is, he's got two rookie receivers and they can sort of really start start the fresh you know and running right away with him nicks is really like pick your flavor because like like you i think he does start immediately lots of passes to the running backs you know lots of running from nicks he's not the same kind of upside as daniels at all but both may and Nick's had plenty of touchdowns in college. I mean, Nick's played 20 years of college football.

So you have to say that too. So I would put him forth and then probably McCarthy with a better chance of playing sooner than Pennix and then Pennix last. I like that obviously, because, you know, Jaden Daniels is going to run a ton i i think because one of the things with him in college is i didn't when i was watching and it can look

completely different in the nfl i know this but i didn't see a lightning quick getting rid of the football and if there's a little bit of slow processing, a little bit of, I got to see it first, those quarterbacks will run. And you even see it. This is part of why Jalen hurts was not as good as he was two years ago last year, because he got banged up and he didn't run as well when he didn't see the first read there. And I think that's not an insult. It's just kind of a playing style for some of the running quarterbacks where it's like,

I don't see it. Someone's not open. I'm just going to take off. I think Daniel's going to do that a ton. So if rushing yards are the big deal for you, then he's going to be very good at it. I wonder who he's going to throw deep to. He is so good at throwing a deep ball, but who's going to be open? Who's making the contested catches whereas

caleb williams has this built-in man wide open named keenan allen he had 18 catches against the vikings last year he's just every time the vikings have ever played him i've never seen him covered he is the best route runner i think in the entire nfl he probably runs a 4-8 at this point and yet if you need eight yards this dude is going to be wide open which may rack up a lot of completions and a lot of passing yards for him just by having a veteran receiver who he knows is going to be there for him well I that's that's right I think he might have been first in open score at ESPN last year of all receivers Keenan Allen I worry his age. And so in terms of the Bears, really could go any direction as good as DJ Moore is. And he showed last year what a wide receiver one can look like. And now

he's got by far the best quarterback of his career. And then Odunze, Matt Harmon at reception perception called him the best ever that he's seen come out of college. His chart was all green arrows everywhere. Like, wow. So I think that's close to accurate, at least in terms of what Matt thought. So if any of those guys had built the top target share and there was by a margin, I don't think it would really be that surprising or should be that surprising. Komet, Gerald Everett, you know, DeAndre Swift, who maybe ends up getting work in a passing down roll, maybe even a three down roll. Yeah, there's a lot to like there. Allen,

this is, I think, a little bit of a shortcoming of mine as a fantasy player, because I just get scared by the old guys. I mean, I lost money not drafting Derrick Henry for three years. Mike Evans last year. There's always someone young next to them on the ADP that I will pick instead. And I'm trying to be better at that. But I end up even last year not having much Keenan Allen. That can work out. The old guys get hurt, and then you can feel like you were right. Stephon Diggs is interesting for this year, also on a team with other very talented receiving options and offense you're going to like.

But at 30, what's left? That can be Keenan Allen, Diggs, Evans, a big call that you have to make. I have two more things for you. Number one, I want to know what quarterback the world is buying and you're not buying. So who is, you're seeing all your fantasy friends, and you're talking, and you're going on the deep end podcast and saying, no, no, no.

I am not believing all the hype around blank. If you want to throw in a little match game style, you can. I'm trying to feel like who's the best fit for both of those factors. If he's super hyped, for this year only, I might pick Stroud because Richardson is right there with him. Prescott, Love, those guys are a round or two cheaper. Daniels is three or Kyler Murray. Like I'm not drafting much CJ Stroud.

I doubt there's going to be much rushing upside. And it's such a difference. If you do the math on like this point we keep making about the value of running quarterbacks, just think about like one rushing touchdown or you know 50 yards what that equates to points wise versus what that would have to be passing you know it just adds up really quickly so because I think the rushing is probably capped on Stroud um love him as a player like everybody he seems like a great personality too super smart but I'm always

drafting richardson instead only exception would be if i'm draft if i've drafted nico collins or digs already and i'm trying to do it that way um so yeah dynasty love stroud as much as anybody but in terms of this year there are there's other there's better values i think later on um and i named a few options I like more at the price. I would say, I mean, I don't know about if everyone's hyping this person up, but I see in rankings that Jalen Hurts is really, really high. And I would say that I'm a little more concerned about him, similar to what I was talking about with Kyler Murray,

where just historically, a lot of the running quarterbacks do most of their running early in their career. And it's been a long time, but Steve McNair was like this early in his career, lots of running, and then they get banged up. And if you can't turn into the pure pocket quarterback like Steve McNair did and won an MVP, then I think life's just a little harder for you. And I'm not, I'm not so sure that they're going to be able to tush-push like they have in the past without their center. That's a big deal because I think that Kelsey was doing a ton at the line of scrimmage. I'm just not really that high on him in Philadelphia overall this year. Okay, that's bold.

A lot of good points. A.J. Brown, Devontae Smith, where they go top two rounds. You know, Hurts is easy for me at the end of round three if I've drafted Brown at the 110 or something like that. Or even on the other side, Devontae Smith, 210, and then maybe Hurts, 403, something like that. I love those starts. The Eagles have a very narrow Miami target tree,

so you don't have to wonder too much what they're probably going to want to do. They still have a very good roster, I think. I kind of always want to just assume that with Roseman in Philly. And I like Hurts. I don't think your point is valid about as quarterbacks age. That could apply to Allen in time. It certainly was true of Cam Newton who just couldn't do it anymore and that was basically the end of his career so I don't think that's out

outside the range of outcomes for Hertz in a couple of seasons but I think that they're like a Super Bowl contender I'd expect A.J. Brown, Devontae Smith, Hertz, all of it, Saquon Barkley to go great what might be relevant to Hertz fantasy value is if they want to hand the ball to Barkley inside the 10 or inside the five even, which that was Jalen Hurts' automatic touchdowns over and over. And some people are a little shy on Barkley because of what Hurts has meant in that role, but it could go the other way. Yeah, no, that's definitely true. shy on Barkley because of what hurts has meant in that role, but it could go the other way.

Yeah, no, that's definitely true. I, uh, I was reaching for something hot there because I do think that most projections are that they're going to be very good. I just wondered, I got a little concerned about some of the things with him last year and getting banged up and how different he was. And the other part of it too, was he doesn't have the same offensive coordinator as he did when they went to the Super Bowl. Obviously, he is coaching the Indianapolis Colts, but that seemed to matter in key situations for them last year. And I just wonder if it's going to be quite the same as it was. Last thing for you, and I want to ask every guest this at some point in fantasy football week, you've been a tremendous opener to fantasy football week this is like having kenny lofton lead off this is uh when leadoff hitters matter um so uh i want to know a quarterback through the years that you've been really diving into fantasy in

these last few years who you were totally in on you drafted you loved and then he just destroyed your soul it just was was bad it didn't work out for you you couldn't believe it you were telling everybody all summer oh i'm drafting this guy i can't wait for him to put up 10 gazillion fantasy points and then it just didn't happen that's an easy one i can't wait to tell you my answer. I think it would be most fantasy analysts answer to give you a clue. But I want to say first, I'm first of all relieved that your question wasn't who is the guy you're trying to get in every draft? Because I have gotten that question twice on podcasts recently and I have bombed. I went to the zoo on that question because I don't think like that. There's no player that I always want to get.

You know, you're playing a lot of volume. You want to get pieces of everybody. And so I just ended up somehow, I took the question 17 different directions last time and ended up on Marquez Valdez Scantling and just, I mean, oh my God, just can we have that one back? So I'm glad you didn't ask me that.

I would recommend never ask anybody that because they don't, you know, a high volume player doesn't have somebody they have to get. Lamar Jackson, I'm proud and sort of braggy to say, I was into very, very early, like immediately. His rookie year, he didn't play until mid-season, but even with Joe Flacco on the team, they stuck with Jackson all the way to the playoffs. The next year, he won the MVP unanimously.

That won me quite a lot, believing in him. Best running quarterback of all time, coming into the league, never doubted his passing ability at all, didn't really need it because they ran for 3,000 yards in Baltimore. The quarterback in recent history, if not all of history, that has crushed the most souls is Trey Lance because everybody wanted to believe in him as like sort of a next Lamar. And, oh, he played at a small school. Oh, he'd actually never played at all in college. Who cares? He can run. Look at the draft capital, third overall. There's no Jimmy Garoppolo.

Come on. There's no reason to fear this. You know, maybe a darn old McCarthy or a Brissette May is kind of a Garoppolo Lance. But Lance never cracked the lineup. He played one or two after an injury, and then he broke his ankle week two of the second season after week one in a monsoon in Chicago. And that's like the end of him. Purdy happened.

He's been in Dallas. I thought maybe in Dallas there would be some sort of role where he could be interesting. But then I remembered Mike McCarthy was the coach, and there would be nothing interesting. So you never saw Trey Lance. Now it's year four, right? And he's just like forgotten. I'm sure there are people hanging on to his shares. I was buried in a league two years or last offseason with Lance and Fields.

And just what do I do? I mean, I feel like one of these guys has to make it. And somebody offered me Jalen Hurts and two first round picks. And I hate trading draft picks, but I did it in a second. Like finally, I'm the psychiatrist in What About Bob that passes Bob Wiley off to Richard Dreyfuss. Like, oh, I have a free, you know? So I think a lot of people would say Trey Lance to that question. That's a great answer. And last year I was actually in Las Vegas for the Circa Millions contest when, and everybody in Vikings land wanted them to trade for Trey Lance because,

you know, Kirk was on the last year of his deal and why not take a shot at the guy? And he's actually from Minnesota. So of course you're gonna want that and when they traded him for a fourth round pick to a team that had no chance of playing him the only answer was it's just over guys there's there's not there's nothing there the entire league has assessed this situation and his own team picked sam darnold to stay on the team over the guy they drafted number three overall

this is just not a spot where you go to bat for the guy with Sam Darnold you could kind of make the case because he had flashes and a team traded a second round pick for him and he looked pretty good in some games that he played recently and with San Francisco but with Lance he must just not be able to and he looked so horrendous in preseason like he must just not be able to, and he looked so horrendous in preseason. Like he just must not be able to do this. I don't know. Yeah, maybe it's, I mean, now again, he played so little football in college, North Dakota state.

Was it like he, how, how many snaps has he taken in five years at this point? It just, and that reminds me of Deshaun Watson. Who's one guy we never talked about today, but he is a riddle. You know, you have some who think he'll never make it back and others who think he's going to be good again.

We're still waiting on that. But really interesting to talk about all this with you today. Yeah, yeah, this was great. I'm really glad we could get together and let's do it again sometime. I guess this was really fun. So this was really fun.

We've gone all these years. We haven't had too many opportunities to have crossover of Buffalo, Minnesota things. The one game I had Howard on. Sorry, I picked Howard for the one preview podcast before. But now Howard's retired, so you're next man up. I'm next man up. And we didn't talk about cards. We have a history of that as well.

I'm surrounded by them in my messy basement. You got to win a fantasy so you can spend several hundred dollars a pack on cards. That's a deep reference. So anyway, thanks again, Mike Shelp and the Deep End Podcast. Make sure you check that out. And thanks, man. Thanks again. And best of luck in all the fantasy doings.

Thanks, Matt.