Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - Why are the Vikings crushing fourth quarters? (A Fan's Only podcast)
Episode Date: December 3, 2022Matthew Coller answers questions from Vikings fans, from why they have been so clutch in the fourth quarter to what a strong Kirk Cousins finish to the season could mean to his future and much more. ...Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
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Purple Insider is presented by Liquid Death, delicious water that's bringing death to plastic.
Learn more at liquiddeath.com slash insider. Hello, welcome to another episode of Purple Insider.
Matthew Collar here as always, and this is a fans-only episode.
We'll get into that in just one second.
But first, from the injury report today, Kevin O'Connell announcing that Christian Derusaw is not ready to come back yet,
which is a big loss for them and has been a big loss for them to not have Christian Derusawaw is not ready to come back yet, which is a big loss for them. It has been a big
loss for them to not have Christian Derrissaw in the mix, but especially against the New York Jets
defensive line. They rotate a lot of really good pass rushers in there. And O'Connell would not
say exactly if Blake Brandel will be the left tackle for the entire game. He said Brandl is going to start, but then
alluded to the idea that Ole Udo might play. I think that Brandl has done about as well as they
could have hoped from him considering the quality of competition that they've played, and it does
not get any easier, but Ole Udo does have more experience than Blake Brandl, so maybe they
kind of have him just in case, like if it's not going well
against this Jets defensive line, that they could bring Ole Udo off the bench and give him a try.
I guess, I mean, that makes sense. There are no good options that are going to be anywhere close
to Christian Derrissaw. And as far as when he could return based on the protocols and the fact
that he was out there today, makes me think that it's possible he could return next on the protocols and the fact that he was out there today makes me think that
it's possible he could return next week but Kevin O'Connell would not say for sure exactly when they
see him coming back and they're talking about playing it as safe as they possibly can they know
that Christian Derrissaw is going to be a huge part of this team going down the stretch and they
really cannot afford to go into the playoffs without
their star left tackle.
We've seen Christian Derrissaw really emerge as one of the best players at his position.
So they seem to be playing this one slow, moving him through the concussion protocol
and we'll see when he comes back.
I wouldn't be surprised if that ends up being at Detroit, but we'll just have to wait and
see on that one.
That one's not as easy to project as say, you say, a knee or an ankle or something like that.
Also, Caleb Evans, now he is out of the concussion protocol.
He is back. He is going to start over Duke Shelley.
He's had some moments so far this season.
He got beat a couple of times in Buffalo, but had a very good game in Washington
against a team that I think is
probably comparable in its passing game to Mike White and Terry McLaurin. You have Garrett Wilson
and, you know, we'll see what Mike White brings to the table in his second start, but Caleb Evans
should be an upgrade over Duke Shelley, who got picked on quite a few times from the New England
Patriots last week. So he's in, and that's some good news for the Vikings.
There was another note that we didn't really get to,
Andrew Booth Jr. being out for the year,
which just a complete failure to launch for Andrew Booth Jr.
Just, I mean, every time he's been on the field almost,
he has come away with an injury.
And so maybe this one will give him an opportunity to completely heal.
Because, I mean, he talked about not being healthy since high school.
And that continued over to the NFL.
But when somebody gets hurt that often, you have to be really nervous about what that means to their career.
Also, Cam Dantzler seems like he should be coming back at some point soon.
So the Vikings getting a little healthier. And Delvin Tomlinson will be good to go.
That is really big for them.
Really, really, really big considering the size of the man.
But their interior pressure, and I asked Kevin O'Connell about this today,
their interior pressure has been essentially non-existent.
And if you're going to make Mike White uncomfortable,
you have to have more than just two guys rushing off the edge.
I mean, there has to be some push up the middle.
And even in the locker room, I asked after practice,
I asked Nick Mullins, like, what's it like to get interior pressure
from a guy like Delvin Tomlinson?
And he said, it's annoying is the way that he described it.
I mean, because you can't step up, that when you get pressure off the edge,
as long as your tackle isn't cleanly beat, you have a chance to be able to step up away from it.
Maybe your tackle can push the guy out of the way, but there's really no answer for interior pressure.
So Delvin Tomlinson coming back should be a pretty big deal.
So there's kind of your injury update going into the Jets game.
Let's get into some of those questions. This first one comes from Chris via email.
The Vikings rank by quarter 11th, 13th, 28th, and 1st on offense and 24th, 15th, 31st, and 4th on defense. The improvement in the fourth quarter is remarkable on both sides of the ball.
I acknowledge that points scored slash allowed is an incomplete metric
for the fourth quarter performance.
I couldn't find EPA or DVOA by quarter.
I know where to find that.
Ben Baldwin's analytics site is a good – just Google that.
Google Ben Baldwin analytics site because it's called RBDS,
something like that.
But that's got your EPA is by quarter.
If you want to find that anyway,
it made me wonder,
are the Vikings intentionally saving some of their best plays for the fourth
quarter in your analysis of Vikings games?
Have you noticed any significant changes in the approach to play calling in the
fourth quarter?
Is there any marked changes to the pattern in terms of personnel formations route concepts blitz tendencies
to advance metrics like epa or dvoa also show a stark contrast oh absolutely a massive massive
contrast in the fourth quarter the vikings are the second best offense and the seventh best. No, I have that mixed up.
The second best defense and seventh best offense.
And Kirk Cousins is the second best quarterback in the fourth quarter.
And so with this question, I did look into it and I'm going to write an article off of it.
But basically, no, they don't play differently.
Obviously, they run less because they've been down in a lot of fourth quarters and had to pass the ball and their fourth quarter run success is not particularly good.
But on the defensive side, you'd be surprised. They really don't play differently. Like there
isn't an increase in blitzing or different coverages that they use or anything like that.
On the defensive side, I think there's two things at play.
Number one is this defense specifically might actually be good for a team that is desperately
trying to make a play at the end of a game.
So think about the Patriots or Arizona or, you know, whatever number of games that they've
had where they took a late lead Chicago and a team is desperate to try
to make a play. Okay. Chicago fumbled. So there is that, but Arizona and new England are two teams
that basically didn't get anywhere when they were trying to go when it's a defense dropping way back
in coverage and giving up underneath stuff. But the other team is desperate and they have to try
to force something or they end up holding onto the ball too often.
So Josh Allen, for example, there's another one.
He was able to move the ball, but then tried to force it in the end zone to win the game,
and that's how they lost with the interception.
And then in those other ones that I referenced, Arizona and New England,
those were teams that needed a ton of yardage in a very short amount of time.
So the late game situation where the Vikings are dropping everybody back
and you're looking and you're looking and trying to make a play
and then they get a key sack.
Or, I mean, even against New Orleans in London,
they were able to tackle the guy just in time to set up a 60-yard field goal
as opposed to, you know, if they get a few more yards,
maybe it's a more makeable play.
I think that those things play into it is that this defense is actually pretty favorable
when the other team is trying super hard.
Also, the Vikings run defense in the middle.
This is why you get Harrison Phillips has been really, really good in the fourth quarter.
You know what would have ended them a bunch of times this year in the fourth quarter of
games, other teams running the ball successfully.
Think about Washington.
So Washington has a 10 point lead and this goes for a bunch of games you could
reference, but that's the first one that popped to my mind.
Washington has a 10 point lead and the ball in the fourth quarter.
What could they do?
Or is either seven or 10 either way.
They could just run the clock out if they were able to, right?
You just hand off, get a couple of first downs, run the clock all the way down and the Vikings wouldn't have a chance to
come back instead they were able to stop the run Taylor Heineke throws an interception on third
down and long where they honestly probably should have just thrown a screen pass anyway
but those are the big plays that have happened late in these games when the other team is
desperate Teddy Bridgewater throws into traffic when he's desperate in the fourth quarter to try
and score.
And even though the Vikings gave up some plays there, that was the real, when you look at
the EPA, like that was the real ender to that game is when Peterson got that interception.
I think the other part is super stardom that when you're a good player, you might make
one of those plays a season or two of those plays a
season. When you are Justin Jefferson, when you're Patrick Peterson, Zedarius Smith, Daniil Hunter,
these are guys who win awards. At least one of those guys, and I'll throw Harrison Smith in there
as well, of course. I mean, these are guys who at least one of them for sure is wearing a gold
jacket, Patrick Peterson at the end of the day. And these other guys, all pros pro bowls, Justin Jefferson's on a hall of fame track.
Like this is what great players do in the league is they get to fourth quarter and they say,
I am making this catch no matter what against Buffalo. And they find a way to do it. And,
you know, Kirk cousins, the other thing about him is the narrative about him not being clutch.
That is something that if you've listened to the show for a long time, primetime and clutch are two things that don't really come up a lot.
More critical has been about your ability to build a roster around a quarterback like him,
which they were able to do this year in the right situation with the division and the conference and so forth. And the other thing is just the roller coaster where some weeks it's a Dallas
game and some weeks it's a new England game. And a lot of it really depends on how well you scheme
and how open receivers are and how well you block and all those things. But I think as far as the
quote clutch goes when other teams play back, we were just talking about how
Mac Jones and Kyler Murray tried to press and got sacked.
I think Kirk Cousins has actually been always very good at that.
Taking those underneath routes that are there and getting yards after catch and moving the
ball when the other team tries to play too conservatively, when they stop going after
him, he is right there to take advantage.
And I think that that is a trend with his career
that it's one of the reasons why you're sort of never out of a game with Kirk cousins,
a team get most of the time, 40 to three aside. But most of the time I looked at this in his
career, he started something like 130 games and is only lost by more than two touchdowns, 14 times.
It doesn't happen. Think about the, you know, he's got the 500 record or a little above 500 now.
And how many losses are mixed in there?
Let's say it's, I don't know, 65 losses or something.
Only one out of every six is really a beat down.
Maybe that's one or maybe two a season at absolute most.
And part of the reason is you get ahead by two touchdowns and Cousins
is going to come back if you play off so much. And so I think that there have been times this season
where opponents have tried to kind of play it safe, play it safe, play it safe. And Cousins
has taken advantage of that. So I think it's an accumulation of things, probably not saving plays.
I think that they try to put the best plays they can to get an early lead
because the numbers on scoring early in a game and winning are still correlate pretty high.
Even if the Vikings, I mean, look, I mean, actually, no, I mean, look at them. Like they've
fallen behind in some games, but those early touchdowns that they seem to score on the first
drive of every game. I think that's where they're putting their best stuff. And Cousins has operated
those opening scripts throughout his career incredibly well. So that's where you're really
putting your, we game planned all of these things for this opponent plays. But they also have what
they call menu. So like throughout the game, you can look at the menu of plays that you've
installed for that week and know what has worked throughout a game, what has not worked throughout a game.
I also have a theory kind of about O'Connell and Cousins where those two communicating
through a game when you have the menu and you could talk about, is this working for
you?
Are you seeing this?
Are you seeing that?
And that story, when it comes to like uh you know kevin o'connell telling
kirk cousins hey you gotta you gotta make this throw we're getting the read like stuff like that
i don't know that that was happening with clint kubiak it probably was with gary kubiak but he
definitely wasn't getting the hands-on from the head coach and i think there could be some impact
there as games go along
that those two who have been around football for such a long time can see things, can adjust to
things. Justin Jefferson's having conversations with Kevin O'Connell throughout the game.
All of that probably comes together. And then our old friend randomness, our old friend,
small sample size, those end up in this too, that you can,
you know, you're not always going to get Josh Allen to throw you the interception,
or you're not always going to make a one finger catch against the bills, right? Sometimes those
are one-off type of things. And, uh, the Vikings have to stave off that regression, you know, for
the rest of the year. Now, I mean, it could certainly carry over though through the rest
of the season and they have the star talent to do it so it's a great question it's a very interesting topic
and i'm using this question to write an article off so i really appreciate that one chris that is
a a plus great question all right on to the next one this from at carpet kaiser uh fans only
question for you with every big catch justin makes, does it basically ensure that Kirk Cousins won't be here by the time his new deal starts?
Yeah, I don't want to say that for sure.
I don't want to say that for sure.
What I know is that Justin Jefferson is going to have to be the highest paid receiver in the National Football League.
Like he has to be.
There's no, there's
no debate about it. If you're keeping him in Minnesota, which I think they will, he's had
no problem becoming a superstar and a celebrity and a winner now with this season, right? So he's
seen all those things, kind of the perfect culmination of things this year to say, you're
the number one receiver in the league. We're winning lots of games and competing for a super bowl sounds like a place that you should sign up for a deal beloved by the fans
great stadium great facility ownership that's going to put the cash on the table i mean justin
jefferson couldn't ask for a whole lot more as far as cousins goes that one is where it gets a
little tough now they wouldn't be the first team ever to be
able to afford two of the best players in the league. I mean, the green Bay Packers were ready
to sign Devante Adams to an extension. He just didn't want to, he wanted to go play in Las Vegas,
which it, that whole thing is worked out for nobody, but still like they were going to try
to find a way. And the new Orleans saints had superstars next to drew breeze.
Um, you know, when they were at their absolute best, yeah, they did have Michael Thomas and
Alvin Camara and Marshawn Lattimore on their rookie contracts.
Um, but I think that after this season, it's very reasonable for Kirk cousins representation
to go to the Vikings and say, you know, this should be a three or four or five year contract
extension.
This should be long, long term.
And I know that might scare some of you, but if I'm his agent, I'm saying, well, you wanted
him to win and now he is one.
And I don't know if, you know, the playoffs even play into this necessarily, but if you
get 13 wins, if you get 14 wins this season, how are you not as his agent saying make this man a viking
for life and also how i can't see ownership saying eh you know i don't know let's draft somebody
like i don't i don't think that's really in the cards so if anything what they would try to do
is match up the lowest possible cap hits or by one of them. Right. So you have like,
maybe it kind of conflicting in a way where it's, you know, or you're trying to avoid it
conflicting where they're both at their peak expensiveness. Sorry for not saying that clearly,
but you have one year where Jefferson is a little bit lower, maybe the first year of his contract.
If you look at the mega star players like Josh Allen or Patrick Mahomes,
there's always one year before the cap hit really explodes.
It's usually the first year of a deal.
So if you have Cousins being a little more expensive that year
and then a little less expensive,
and Rob Brzezinski would have to explain to you how all of that could possibly work,
but I think you really intentionally plot
that out to make sure they're both not making, you know, 30 million for Jefferson and Kirk Cousins
making 45 million at the exact same time. And then you've got, you know, a pretty good chance
to make it work. And you're going to have to hit on draft picks, like having the 2021 and potentially
2022 draft classes kind of go kaput is a little bit of a problem.
And 2022 is not written yet, but there's just not a lot of value.
Even if Louis seen comes back and hits, even if Brian Asamoah hits, like these aren't high value positions.
Even if Ingram, you know, improves, these aren't positions that are going to be very expensive.
Whereas Christian Derrissaw down the road definitely will be. So they'll have a lot of work to do, but I mean, at one time they were able to
afford a Stefan Diggs extension, Daniil Hunter, Eric Hendricks, Adam Thielen, like all these guys.
There's ways you can work it out if your ownership is willing to spend the cash.
So I think, and particularly since Kirk Cousins has put up such unbelievable numbers working
with Justin Jefferson, he's got all these historic numbers.
I would be very surprised if they said, you know what?
We're going to make a quarterback change here.
We're going to do something different.
I think that this year has possibly, and this could change, of course, solidified who's
going to be your quarterback and number one wide receiver for
quite some time. Now, if they collapse, they fall apart, they lose every game from here on out,
very unlikely, and Cousins totally fades and they lose in the first round. Yeah, I mean,
things can change from here to there, but if they win 13 games or more and then win in the playoffs,
like, yeah, this is your quarterback and wide receiver
combination for a while i would project but you know they might look at it like at some point
they do have to make a change there i just think that they'll make sacrifices in lots of other
areas as opposed to this one which you know might make you nervous probably should make you nervous
considering cousins age like look at stafford that's a good example that last year, the guy leads the league in passing and
passing EPA and everything else. And it was all clicking. And then this year it's fallen off.
Like there is an age curve to quarterbacks, but I just feel like ownership who doubled down on
Cousins by keeping him is going to look at this year, regardless of any statistical
fall off and look at what Jefferson has done and say, these two need to be a combination
going into the future.
That would be my projection right now.
But I mean, there is a lot of time to go where that could possibly change.
But I think, yes, they could figure out a way to work those salary cap hits.
And the other thing that I should note before I move on to the next question is just that what you can often do too, is put in
particular times where you can change that money over. And I always get this backwards, but from
bonus to salary, a base salary. So when you make the conversion that, you know, you kind of build
in times and years and seasons where you can go in and say, you know, you kind of build in times and years
and seasons where you can go in and say, all right, this year, this is when we're going
to make that conversion.
So it can create more space for this other guy where we can't make that conversion.
It's very convoluted, but long story short is, um, if they have as much success the rest
of the way that they've had so far, uh, they'll figure it out would be the way I'd put it.
Is it going to take away from some other places? Yes. If they don't hit on draft picks.
And that's maybe part of the reason why, you know, as Kweisi Adafo-Mensa, you try to trade down
and get more swings at the, at the plate and get more draft picks. So I think that probably plays
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All right. Next question comes from GM via email. so this is from quacey no i'm just kidding
it's not uh but gm is a long time listener and i appreciate uh the support there he says i have an
observation that i thought you could address on fans only if you'd like it has to do with kevin
o'connell accepting the opening kickoff twice this year after winning the coin toss well i understand
that sending your strength the offense out there right away to hopefully
gain some early momentum, to me, the benefit of that is outweighed by the latter option,
which I think most of the league agrees with.
To be truthful, I was saying deferring the opening kickoff was a better option long before
it became a trend.
My reasoning is mainly based on the idea that regardless of how
the first half goes, you at least have the potential of gaining some momentum going into
the second, knowing that you will get the ball first. I'm not saying it would have made a
difference against Dallas, but the game appeared over at halftime knowing that Dallas would get
the ball in the second half. Yeah, no, that's an interesting observation. I will tell you that
every Madden player in the world has known this for a very long time
that the double dip, there's nothing like it.
You can go from a tie game to up two touchdowns in an eye blink and everyone looks around
and goes, what just happened?
Right?
I mean, if you score at the end of the half, get the ball back, go score again in a close
game, all of a sudden it
feels like the world just ended and like think about and i don't i don't remember if the vikings
got the ball back or not but what comes immediately to my mind is randy moss flipping it to mo williams
like imagine having to come back out as a defense after that like that's how because it's demoralizing
also to give up those points
at the end of the half. If you're the defense, like, oh, we just got scored on, we're going to
the half down seven points, or you've been leading the whole first half and now, oh man, we're tied
at the end of the half. And now they're going to come out with a chance to take the lead.
I tend to agree with you. I think this is a thing that coaches like to do when they want to get their offense going right away.
Like, all right, let's get them out there.
Let's not have them sit and wait and watch the other team, you know, pass the ball and run the ball down the field and get up 7-0.
And, you know, kind of make us feel a little demoralized or sad right off the beginning.
Like, let's take command of this game.
And I don't know the exact statistics. I've never looked them up. I've never found them to be super
meaningful, but you could see coaches being like, Hey, when you score first, you win 68% of the
time. So we're going to try to go score first, which, you know, doesn't, doesn't really track
exactly with getting the kickoff first. Cause that kind of works counterintuitive to the benefits that we just mentioned.
But I do think there's something to it with this team
because they are so good at scoring right away.
And philosophically, I agree with you, and I think you're right,
but I can see why Kevin O'Connell would say,
every time we get out there with our opening script, we just crush it. Now,
the counterpoint might be that the Vikings have a phenomenal punt unit, and they also turn the
ball over a lot in a good way on defense. So you kick the ball off and then you start with the
field position game. You get a stop, you get a turnover, you get a good punt return. Um, those kinds of things that,
I mean, that can really get you going too. I mean, because here, here's why I like what you're
saying is if you're the team that receives the ball. And so the Vikings score almost every time
when they get the ball first, but if you don't, then you're like, Oh no, the other team is getting
it at the beginning of the second half. We're already behind the eight ball.
So I agree with you.
I think that you're on the right track there.
I just think that with this particular team, that's probably why they do it because they
know that they score so often on that first drive that they're trying to get ahead right
away and force the other team to be a little impatient.
So if you can score, it absolutely works and is great. If you
don't, you're putting yourself at risk. So, you know, kind of a good example would be like in
chess, there's a, there's a meter that will tell you if you're winning or losing, or were you
winning or losing at any given time? It's kind of cool. Like 20 moves in, were you winning or
were you losing? Um, if I'm using
that meter of sort of the wind probability, like chess is like that too. I guess you guys know what
wind probability meters are now. Uh, so let's say after your first drive, if you score on your first
drive, after receiving wind probability goes way up or your meter goes way toward your side.
And if you don't,
I would guess that it goes down quite a bit in terms of your win probability.
And then team strength matters a lot to that too.
But just as far as if you had equal teams,
equal playing field,
that's probably how it goes.
So it's a little risky to take that ball first and you really have to score so
far they have,
but if they don't,
it might come back to get them. All right this question comes from at miles shaughnessy i think is how you uh
pronounce this or shaughnessy i'm sorry if i'm getting it wrong uh been listening to purple
insider for a year and a half or so daily appreciate that thank you very much also side
note all of you who sent me your Spotify's that said, you know, purple
insiders, your top lists and all those things cannot thank you guys enough. It's really nice
of you to send it to me on Twitter and so forth. And I greatly, greatly appreciate everybody who
spends any amount of time with the show. Uh, people talk about driving to work or going for
their jog or all sorts of different things where you share this with me.
So I thank you. Thank you so much for doing that. Uh, anyway, back to miles question.
My question is what should I be? What? Oh, I'm sorry. I jumped ahead in the question.
Uh, miles says I'm going to my first Vikings game this week. My question is what should I be
watching for differences between watching on TV and being in person?
Well, that's very exciting for you. First of all, you are picking a heck of a game and a heck of a venue to go to your first NFL game. Uh, get in your seat early would be my suggestion because,
and, uh, today that today's show just did a thing on this. The Vikings have the best pregame
presentation that you're ever going to find
so make sure that you get in the building get in your seat do the skull chant the whole thing the
gala horn the videos up on the board the fake snow that they're blowing out on everybody now
and someday someday my friends we will get the dragon fire back. I will fight this fight to the end that there's no
reason that the fire should have been taken away from the dragon because Tennessee lit something
on fire one time. Anyway, uh, I'm working on that, uh, to get to Roger Goodell and get the message
through, but that's the first thing. Make sure that you are ready for the pregame presentation because it is worth it as far as what you can see the difference i think that plays developing like
there's a really cool effect that you don't get on tv that you get when you're there which is
say kirk cousins drops back to throw and he lets it go 20 30 30 yards down the field. You can look and see Jefferson.
Is he away from his guy?
Is it going to be a contested catch?
And the whole crowd all at once goes, Whoa, like this, there's this crescendo from the
crowd all at once that kind of just rises up together as they see the ball heading toward
the wide receiver to potentially make the catch.
And then when he does and they go insane, like it's just, it's a totally different thing from
watching on television where the ball goes up and you're not seeing where it's headed.
And then, oh, the guy's open and he caught it. And I mean, I'm sure that's exciting to watch on TV
for you, but there's nothing like seeing the whole thing
develop. The other thing is that you can look at coverages. It depends on how into football you are,
but you can look at what the quarterback sees. On TV, you can see a little, but not really.
You kind of are just watching the ball, but you can look at other things. You can say,
how does Justin Jefferson break away from
the corner? What are these route combinations look like? There was a play where the Vikings had
Thielen and Jefferson cross each other. I mean, actually the play I was talking about earlier,
where Kevin O'Connell said, Hey, you got the look, go make the play. Well, they kind of cross
each other. You can't really see that on TV. You just see cousins and then he throws the ball and
then,
Whoa, he caught it. He was wide open. But in the press box, I was sitting next to Judd Zolgad and Sam Ekstrom as always. And he dropped back and I saw it. And I just said, touchdown, like
way before he threw the ball, I was like touchdown. And there it was because I could see the routes
developing. And that's something that you just don't get. I also think that the
energy from the crowd, I mean, there's nothing like it. And one of the cool things about the
press box at us bank stadium is that we're kind of jammed in the crowd in a way. Um, so we're like
right above and right below people. So we get the full breadth of that power and it's really
something else. So enjoy your first game, man. Uh, that is going to
be a experience you shall not forget. I hope you have a fun time. Uh, all right. This comes from
my friend, orange suds on Twitter, uh, says for the most part this year, the roster has avoided
the injury bug. Can you discuss the differences you've observed in the new training staff and how
they operate? Yeah, I think i think you know it's something
that i've tried to bring up from time to time this year because i've been told by people that
it's a real thing it's a really important thing you can't protect somebody from having somebody
else fall on their ankle okay so like irv smith's injury super random just it wasn't his fault. There was nothing anybody can do. A calf strain for Delvin Tomlinson.
Just, who knows?
There are things that just happen when you're out there smashing giant men together that,
you know, whatever, right?
Like it's a dangerous game.
But I think that one thing is using to its fullest data that the Vikings invested in things like tracking
data before how much they cared about it.
Everything really starts with the head coach and Kevin O'Connell caring about it.
And maybe being a former player, this really plays into it for him or just coming from
the Rams.
I don't really know.
But I think that caring about what all
the data says and trusting the people that are responsible for managing that data and managing
the players and communicating with them and also making them feel comfortable telling you what
injuries they have. I mean, this is a thing around the league in the NFL where, you know, guys don't
want to be in that training room because they think, Oh, you know, the general manager is going to find out the coach
is going to find out.
I don't want to tell them that I've got an ankle thing.
I don't want to tell them I've got a calf thing.
I'm just going to play through it and whatever.
I think that this team has made the players feel very comfortable with sharing where they're
at and creating plans for them to get better and not just
how fast can we throw the guy back out there, but what is the best long-term plan? And it is true
that winning games and being way ahead in your division helps you rest players and be more
healthy. There's no question about that, that you don't have to push Delvin Tomlinson out there on
Thanksgiving when you know, if you lose that game, well, it's just not the end of the world. If you give up a
few more rushing yards because Delvin Tomlinson isn't out there because you're way up in your
division. But I also think that they realize from day one, rest is an important thing. You know,
not playing those guys in the preseason is an important thing. So there's a lot of different
areas. It's not exciting to talk about.
It's not like a topic.
It's not something you can have a take on.
So there's not a big discussion about it.
But I think that if you ask the players, like, give me the 10 things you like that are different
from before, that might be number one or number two.
You know, the communication with the players extends to their health as well.
So that's a good, that's a great question.
Let's see on to, this comes from at Mac jaw 68 fans only question.
Why is it so easy for other teams to scheme their wide receiver one into our linebackers
covering them?
It happens every week on the flip side.
Why can we not do the same?
Well, I think the reason that the Vikings we not do the same well i think the reason
that the vikings can't do the same is because every team's game plan is really around justin
jefferson every defense is not going to allow you to do that from time to time he does get open in
the middle of the field on play actions and things like that we saw that against new england but
there's almost always a safety over the top, a corner running with him.
And it tells you that the truly great receivers can beat almost any coverage.
And that's what Justin Jefferson has been able to do.
So that's, I mean, that's part of it.
Is that the Vikings do get some of these mismatches with other receivers.
I just don't know that they've taken full advantage.
And finally, we're starting to see with tj hawkinson
where they could take advantage of that there's a play from last week that comes to mind where
they ran a play action and the linebacker went flying after delvin cook and then hawkinson came
underneath and was wide open and ran for like 10 yards i mean that's the type of stuff where you
can mess with the linebackers and get your tight end or other receiving options open that the Vikings are doing.
I just think that there's something off chemistry wise with KJ Osborne and with Adam Thielen.
Teams are still putting enough attention on him as well.
It's not only going to Justin Jefferson, but there's also different types of schemes. Like if you're going downfield more often, which until last week, the Vikings were doing
a lot of, uh, then, you know, you're, or at least in their route combinations, then you're
not getting one-on-one on linebackers very often.
If you're using Cooper cup, then he's going underneath all the time.
He's using motions.
He's doing short routes.
He's getting the ball in his hands, but they realized pretty quickly.
Justin Jefferson is a different dude than cooper cup you got to go down the field with him and
wow they've had a lot of success with it but the farther you go down the field the more you run
into safeties so i think that is a big part of it and other teams also know the vikings drop their
safeties way back there's a lot of space in the middle. So the linebackers in the
nickel corner get attacked a ton because you're not looking deep down the field. When you have
Harrison Smith and can bind them 30 yards off the line of scrimmage, where's your space.
So teams game plan, they know where it's going to be. And then they get your Tyree kill and
your Stefan digs and so forth, uh forth underneath open. So I think that is probably
the best explanation. This one comes from Dan via the email says, have you ever been open to
the idea of having your wife on the podcast with you? Her media experience, her knowledge of sports
would be an interesting perspective to hear you to discuss the Vikings. Funny thing about that
is that my wife broadcasts college football
and her season just wrapped up working for Learfield doing the national college game of
the week for football. So that was a cool experience. And she knows everything you need
to know about TCU football, which, Hey, look, they're in the hoop. I mean, she did two of their
games and they're in the final four. That's amazing. Uh, or at least as of right
now. And she did, let's see, Penn state, Michigan. And as I record this, she's doing a basketball
game. Then she's got a hockey game. Then she's got another basketball game. I mean, she is, uh,
put so much focus into these other things that she has to do for her job, these other games that,
well, she does know sports.
She doesn't know a whole lot about the Vikings.
I mean, other than listening to me, you know, do these podcasts.
So it really wouldn't work unless she did a lot of preparation and went back and watched
the games because so much of her focus is on the next game that she has to broadcast.
If you folks don't know that my wife is a play-by-play broadcaster.
So she, you know, and then in the summertime, it's the links and it's, it's always something
that isn't NFL related for the most part, basketball, college football, hockey.
She did volleyball this year.
So, and we spend a ton of time like talking about these games and stuff, but not a whole lot
of time spent watching the Vikings. I don't know how many times she was coming back from her game
this year and, you know, just was taking a nap during the Vikings game. And, you know, when I
got home, it was what happened today. So when it's not part of her job, she's not spending a whole
lot of time on it. Maybe we'll start a,'ll start a podcast at some point to talk women's basketball.
You guys know that I am a link season ticket holder and enjoy the WNBA.
So maybe, maybe we should do that.
All right.
Our next question comes from Sean via email says 180 plus hours listening to your podcast
this year.
Wow.
That is amazing. Sean cannot thank you enough
for that. Uh, obviously love the podcast. So I thought I'd share that and I appreciate it.
And for my fans only question, do you know how TV broadcast flexing works? Although I want another
super bowl, like any other NFL fan, I love being able to see the Vikings on local channels and in
prime time slots when they are doing well.
Yeah, I don't think that the flexing rules are all that complicated.
I mean, I pulled up here just to take a look at what the rules are.
And basically, if you're an afternoon game, two weeks in advance, they can decide this is the game we're going to flex.
And that's really all there is to it um i don't think that it's
i'm looking right now to see if there's any sort of like different thing that i would be missing
but it says right here the nfl will decide after consultation with cbs fox and nbc and announce as
early as possible that this whatever game they're moving will be played at 8 15 eastern the
announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game.
The NFL also may announce games moving to 4.05 and 4.25.
So when you look at the schedule for the Vikings,
there's really only one matchup that could be flexed based on how good it is.
And that's really the Giants game.
I mean, maybe at the very end of the year vikings
and bears if the vikings were playing for a number one seed i suppose that's possible but it's more
likely that there's going to be playoff races and i haven't looked at every team's schedule
and how that's going to work but essentially it reads like if the league thinks that your game is
worthy if it's two weeks in advance, they
can just push the big button and they can make that change.
So I guess that's how it works.
And we will see if the Vikings get any of those changed.
But I mean, I mean, there's nothing quite better.
And the Vikings have a lot of home games the rest of the way.
There is nothing quite like U.S. Bank Stadium in the bright lights.
And so if they flex any of those games, I'm down because those are the best.
And also I get to watch football the rest of the day and then show up to work at the stadium at night.
But there's something extra powerful about the lights going down, the intro video,
where the dragon should be shooting out its fire,
but instead it's the fake snow these days, the skull chant, everything else.
It's very, very dramatic to have as an introduction and as an atmosphere at night.
So hopefully they do that.
Hopefully they move at least one of those games.
And once again, thank you, Sean, so much for listening to so much of the show.
Really, really, really appreciate that.
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This one comes from at Dempdolf on Twitter.
There's a not that unlikely world where the Vikings route to the Super Bowl
involves beating the 49ers, Seahawks, and Eagles.
That's the comment.
Well, wouldn't that be ironic then? Like that's yes.
Spielman and Zimmer's playoff losses were against indeed the Seattle Seahawks and the Blair Walsh
game, the 49ers in 2019 and the Eagles, of course, in 2017. And I think that when we talk about this
team in the playoffs, and this is my impression right now, there's six weeks to go and there's an opportunity for them to change that.
But there's some pretty clear matchups that I think would be problematic for the Vikings.
And I know I'm not the first one to say this.
The 49ers one really stands out to me.
As far as first round opponents, I'm kind of going back and forth on whether I think
Seattle or Washington would be a tougher
matchup on its face. It seems like the answer would be clearly Seattle because Gino Smith is
playing extremely good football. The Seahawks have an offense that can go up and down the field,
but they really have a horrendous defense. And you saw that against the Las Vegas Raiders and
Josh Jacobs putting up over 300 yards.
And I mean, that has shootout written all over it.
But I think that the Vikings should have a good chance in a shootout with Justin Jefferson.
Like who's stopping him on Seattle's side?
And if they can run the ball with Delvin Cook the way that Las Vegas did, it's going to
be a pretty tough game for Seattle to keep up. And I think
that you trust Kirk Cousins at home versus Geno Smith kind of riding a magic carpet ride throughout
the season as far as like which one of those guys you'd bet on. Washington, as we saw when they
played them in D.C., they've got those interior defensive linemen that I think are scary. And
Taylor Heineke is not as good as Geno Smith.
There's no question he throws a lot of interceptions and makes a lot of mistakes.
But he also gave the Tampa Bay Bucs in a playoff game a pretty tough time.
And I think if there's one answer to what the Vikings have as a team,
it's somebody with a great defensive line.
That's why Philly is scary.
That's why Dallas is scary. That's why Sanilly is scary. That's why Dallas is scary.
That's why San Francisco is scary.
And the matchups are really going to matter.
But at some point, they will have to beat one of those teams to get to the Super Bowl,
if that's where they're going to go.
More likely than not, yes, Philadelphia or San Francisco will stand in your way,
or likely Dallas.
One of those teams you're probably going to have to beat in
order to get there and you'll have to show that you can beat a team with a really good defensive
line San Francisco still remains to me the most frightening out of all of them although of course
you know what Dallas did to them uh is also pretty disturbing as well 40 to 3 and and it wasn't
really a lucky 40 to 3 it was they got after your quarterback
instantly i think the adjustments down the stretch would help with that but someone like
micah parson someone like nick bosa i don't know if there's any answer to those guys and that's
always been the vikings achilles heel seattle does not have one of those guys washington does
so i'm kind of up in the air for which one of those teams I'd rather face if I'm the Vikings.
But I think, I don't know, I think the answer might be Seattle.
Maybe that's a hot take.
I'm not sure.
I just think Seattle's kind of not that scary of an overall complete team, right?
I think that they are much more of a, like have a good offense and a good passing game
and an exciting running back, but that's kind of it for them. Like their defense is extremely
unimpressive. So maybe it would be two teams looking in the mirror and I should pick Washington
because Taylor Heineke is their quarterback. I don't know. I guess we'll really, really know
that answer as we go down the stretch and we see the complete picture of these teams all right this one comes from at dr mr e on twitter for fans only following up on your
famine famine feast comment about delvin cook how much of it could be the switch to the duo
mid-zone scheme how much is of defenses not fearing the passing game how much is him aging or any other slice of the pie your choice
yeah um that's a good question i think that i mean when we look at his overall numbers for one
i mean he's averaging 4.7 yards per carry and last year was 4.6 so it's not a whole lot different
his pff grades are almost identical between last year and this year
as an overall player. He is actually averaging more yards after contact, though I think that
that could have to do with the 81-yard touchdown being after contact. But it has a lot of been,
you know, 10-plus yard runs or nothing, 10-plus yard run or nothing from Delvin Cook. And I don't
have the perfect answer here because I think that they are a better run blocking
team than they were last year.
And yet it seems to not be yielding consistent results.
I pulled up his zone versus gap scheme.
They are running gap scheme more often than they did last year and way more often than
they did in his two best years.
I think that Delvin Cook is, if you were to design in a lab, the perfect outside zone running back,
it's Delvin Cook because he has really, really good patience. He has really good vision. He
kind of knows that system extremely well because he played it in college. So this may be a little different for
him. I also think that just from the eye test, I remember when Delvin Cook arrived that I just was
like, wow, this is one of the quickest players that I've ever seen. And some of the home runs
that he's hit over the years, and even some of the plays that looked like they were going to be
losses over the years and then turned into gains. There was this giddy up to him that I don't think will ever come back
just because running backs are running backs. I mean, his full speed is still extremely fast when
he gets going, but that little twitchiness where as soon as he touches the football, it's just
lightning go. And if you watch Ezekiel Elliott, there's sort of a similarity between the two,
where Elliott is still a smart runner, he's still a powerful runner,
and when he gets up to full speed, he's fast.
But you just don't see the twitchiness that's quite the same.
And we're talking about minuscule here,
but that can make the difference between getting that slight little edge.
Because, I mean, I remember games in 2019 where there were runs I thought, here but that can make the difference between getting that slight little edge because i mean
i remember games in 2019 where there were runs i thought oh he's caught in the backfield oh he's
not going anywhere and he was able to just explode by people if i were to do the pie chart on that i
think i would put that at the top and then the system maybe next being a little bit different
from what he's had in the
past and i don't know that teams are loading up against him anymore i mean when i looked at
the eight man in the box percentage he's only facing eight men in the box like 19 percent of
the time if you go back two years it was 30 percent of the time so teams are not showing
quite the same level of respect. I also think that the Vikings
have played a lot of good defensive lines and that's always been a thing with him where if
another team has a great defensive line, a lot of times they are able to slow down Delvin Cook a
little bit more by themselves. And I think that that's what happened in New England. Even if New
England didn't pressure the quarterback the same, they were able to, with their dominant front, slow him down on their own.
Okay, let's see.
Maybe we can get in one more here.
Let me scroll around and see what we've got for some questions left in the fans-only thing here.
Let's see.
Let's see.
All right, this is from Alex.
Alex says, I was looking at some numbers in the
passing game and it's pretty pathetic when looking at 20 plus yard passes the vikings are tied for
second least in the nfl buffalo kansas city philly miami and kansas city are in the lead near with
nearly double the vikings there is clearly to me something wrong with him being able to push the
ball down the field or he's not comfortable pushing the ball down the field in this offense perhaps Hawkinson will free up Jefferson
more for downfield targets but from my perspective the Vikings are dealing with an aging quarterback
who cannot do what's ultimately needed to push the ball down the field with a handful to win a
handful of playoff games do you think Kevin O'Connell is ruthless to say it's good,
but not good enough. And the Vikings could possibly pull a chiefs and look for their
Patrick Mahomes. Even if Alex Smith was doing just fine. I don't know what to say about the
future of the quarterback position other than what I've already said, which is, I think if
you're winning 13 games, I would be very surprised if Kirk Cousins doesn't continue to be your quarterback.
And do I think that this front office would go into this draft and say, we've got to try to get
our Patrick Mahomes? That I don't know, because that probably comes down to ownership. And think
about how much money ownership has paid Kirk Cousins through the years and how much they've continued
to buy into him, buy into him with hopes that a year like this would happen. And I think that if
you are the most prudent analytical, like down to the numbers type of person, and you look at the
age curve, even for most quarterbacks that aren't Rogers, Brady, Breeze, you would say,
and compare the numbers with what we've seen from Cousins this year, yeah, maybe that's the route to
go in the future, but how are you going to go tell the Wilfs, who made so many bets on this guy
after he wins 13 games, let's just say, oh yeah, actually now we need to make a change. That would
be pretty surprising. Remember, they couldn't pull the trigger on trading him last offseason
when it was talked about.
They couldn't do it to trade up for Justin Fields
when that was talked about with Carolina a couple years ago.
So they've come close from time to time,
but they've never been able to pull that off
where they make that move trying to get the bigger arm or the better athlete or
something like that. But also if you're Kevin O'Connell, are you going to be willing to make
that change as well? Now it would be much more of a down the road type of move. I mean, you're
making the comparison to Kansas city. If you think about cousins contract and where that stands,
he's only got one more year on the contract. So it
makes sense as far as that comparison, but at the same time, aren't they going to go into the draft
after winning 13 games and say, we need a X, Y, or Z. We need a pass rusher. We need a defensive
tackle. We need a wide receiver. Wide receiver could be another spot. need another you know whatever um but we are so far
away from that i really can't put my finger on how they feel about it i mean if they just keep
winning and winning and cousins ends the season because he can do this with 102 quarterback rating
like who would be surprised right if he got hot down the stretch after having stretches of playing
poorly this season, he's
done that before.
If he ends up with 102 quarterback rating and ranks eighth by PFF and they win 14 games,
are you going to tell the Wilfs like that's not your guy?
I do think that you're right about your analysis in the numbers that even against the Patriots,
we kind of talked about, wow, they pushed the ball downfield more.
They really didn't.
They actually only did three times in that game.
It's just that Justin Jefferson caught all three.
And as far as the playoffs go,
these are the things that I'm really interested in analyzing
as we go down the stretch.
Because I do think that that way they played against the Patriots,
where it was a lot of short passes a lot
of getting the ball out quickly that can win but as you mentioned when you have to play some better
teams you are going to need more explosive plays than just you know one or two or three in a game
to to match Dallas to match Philly because I don't think this defense even if it does make its big
plays will be able to consistently shut those teams down.
So that will be the analysis I'm interested in.
And then when we get to that draft conversation is when we get there.
Because as of right now, I really don't know.
I just think that if you're a big draft person, you're a big think about the future, simulate
to the end of the season Madden guy, you're going to
have to put that aside for a little while because this is a legit serious playoff chase. This is go
after, try to win the Super Bowl chase for now. And we'll kind of get there when we get there on
the future of the quarterback position. I mean, I, you know, I don't, I don't know. And, and how
the draft's going to play out, how many quarterbacks are legitimately first round draft pickling. We are so far away from that
stuff. Um, I may have mentioned this on another show, but I looked at last year's mock drafts,
even in November, and they had like Carson strong going in the top 15. So, you know, I just, I,
we are still so far away from that whole entire process.
Is there anybody that would even make sense?
They're going to have a lot to do with this roster.
I mean, this is why it's really such an all-in type of situation.
There's so much to happen with this roster after the end of this year that I think everybody
kind of feels it.
Like, this is it.
This is the year where everything goes right.
And even Patrick Peterson, this is evidence that they are, they are aware of this. Patrick Peterson said after the TJ Hawkinson trade,
you don't get many of these seasons in a career. I mean, Peyton Manning did Tom Brady did,
but aside from that, like most teams, most franchises do not get that many seasons where
you can win 13 or 14 games. if you have that potential and you just
you got to ride that wave and you got to do everything you can to win right now so that
might mean finding the right balance between quick passing and down the field which i don't think
that they've found all year and protecting cousins but also creating consistent intermediate and deep
passes i i still don't think that they have completely found the right mix with that,
where against the Patriots, it was a lot of short, short, short, short passes,
and then they really leaned heavily on those couple of deep shots.
You're not going to complete.
I mean, Cousins over his career is about 45%, 50% throwing deep down the field.
You're not going to complete every single one each week,
so you do have
to probably take more than just three um but he he has been very alex smithian this year where he
hasn't turned the ball over very much he hasn't gotten sacked a ton outside of the one game
and he's thrown a lot of short and quick passes and it's reasonable for you to wonder is that
going to play when they get to the playoffs
and schematically you got to find a way and you have to find a way to coax cousins into doing it
more often he kind of had a little jump of it um a bit but i think some of that was playing
against buffalo and being down 17 points where he was able to do that um but actually to your point
just before we wrap up here, TJ Hawkinson does
make a difference. I totally agree with that, that Hawkinson does make a difference in how
you can create opportunities down the field for Justin Jefferson. So great, great questions,
as always, Vikings Jets. We will be there as always at US Bank Stadium and bringing you the
post game after that. So here we go.
It is down the stretch.
How many times will I say that as we go like down the stretch playoffs,
football,
good stuff,
people.
Thank you for all your questions.
And once again,
thank you for all of you who shared those Spotify screen grabs and all the
hours that you've put into listening.
I cannot tell you how grateful I am.
And it makes me very happy that you guys have enjoyed the show.
So we will catch you on Sunday.