Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - Why Eric Kendricks and Patrick Peterson could determine the Vikings' defense

Episode Date: June 15, 2022

Matthew Coller talks with Paul Hodowanic about his article on the Vikings' swing players on defense. Why Eric Kendricks will need to be his All-Pro self for Ed Donatell's defense to work and the connection between pass coverage and winning. Plus they answer fan predictions, including one that Irv Smith Jr. will have the best tight end season in Vikings history. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Hello, welcome to another episode of Purple Insider, Matthew Collar collar here and if i'm talking a little bit quietly it's because i am at my in-laws house in los angeles and it's early because paul hodowana cast to go work at wcco radio and needed me to wake up extremely early and everyone else in the house is asleep uh so paul this right here shows my love for vikings fans who need this conversation in their life and it shows my love for podcasting and my respect for you that i would wake up early on a little bit of a vacation here to do this show with you yes and i would just like to point out for all the listeners when i set this time i did not know Matt was in LA. So maybe we could have negotiated something else, but he's early. He didn't complain. He's up 7 AM, 6 30 AM local

time, ready to do this thing. I am jazzed up. So let's, and let's do this. I mean, it's going to be crazy hot here, Matt. So I'm expecting hot takes from myself to kind of gear up and from you as well. Oh, that's right. right yeah it's actually funny so you know it's like 100 degrees today right i'm in los angeles and it's going to be a nice like 82 and it's going to be 100 where you are uh which you know always seems to happen when i visit anytime in the summer it's like minnesota i was thinking about this yesterday and i don't mean to like weather takes right but like i'm ready for him 100 degrees and four or five six months ago it's 15 degrees under so that's 115 degree swing and we're and

we all are just like nice today or hot today or cold today isn't it and they're like are we living like on mercury like what the hell is this yeah no i mean for you have a family in la uh and i mean the biggest temperature they shifts they see are probably like i don't know 50 60 degrees and we're getting massive 100 degree swings in just a matter of months um so yeah we've've, we've arrived at summer and I'm, I don't know, I'm not happy about it, but I I'm ready. I'm, I'm, I'm ready to just be humid and hot every time I walk outside and just ready to go. Oh, we got a few weeks where golf was pleasant. Now golf is trouble gripping the club because it's just sliding out of your sweaty palms. So that is how it goes. But we'll be golfing on Friday, actually, at Chad Graff's golf tournament. And I'm going to try to bring the mics and the recorder out there

to do a little content from there. So you guys can all really look forward to that. But let's get into your article at purpleinsider.com. You wrote about the defensive players that will swing the season. And one of the things that's difficult to figure out is how everyone really is going to fit in Ed Donatell's system. Because before we could kind of project pretty easily, actually, how everyone would work with Mike Zimmer. And sometimes we could even spot pitfalls before they happen where it's like,

Oh, Mike Zimmer is going to rely a lot on Bashad Breland, isn't he? And yes, he did. But we don't really know how Ed Donatello is going to use pretty much anybody outside of, yeah,

you're going to have Daniel Hunter standing up more and there's going to be a lot of too deep safety stuff. We'll see if Lewis scene is the starter day one or it's Cam Bynum and how Cam Bynum is going to be used is another really interesting question. But I want to know from you who you think is number one on the list of most important players if the Vikings are going to have a good defense, which, Paul, I think if they're going to outperform last year, it's absolutely vital

that they have a better defense than they did. So who is at the top of your list for most important players on the defense? Yeah. I, the, the idea of this article was just like volatility and who could be kind of those, those swing guys in terms of, you know, if they're bad, the defense could be really bad. If they're bad, the defense could be really bad. If they're good, the defense could be really good. And it feels weird to put a linebacker up top, but I think for just kind of the heart and soul of the defense that Eric Kendricks is the impact that he might have on this team, both good or bad is really going to be indicative of how this team

fares. We talked a little bit about it before we got on here, but just with the system that they're going to run with high, deep, high safeties, that it really relies on that linebacking group and that defensive line group to stop the run with lighter boxes and for them to really play well and thrive in that type of system. And Eric Hendricks last year, just really, really struggled. And I think it's hard to know if it's an anomaly or not, And Eric Hendricks last year just really, really struggled.

And I think it's hard to know if it's an anomaly or not, but his overall PFF grades from the previous two years were right around 90. They dropped down to under 60 last year, second worst of his career. He had the worst run defense grade among all linebackers and his coverage grade, which was elite in seasons dropped as well. And his missed tackle percentage climbed and it just was not a good year for Eric Hendricks. And so I think some may say, well, the system around him was falling apart, but I think he was kind of part of that defensive system failure. This was less a product of him just being bad because the other players around him were bad. And I just, I think straight up, Eric Hendricks was just not very good last year. And he enters, he's going to be 30 this year at the time of the start of the season. While that doesn't seem that old in terms of just how long a lot of guys in the NFL are playing,

for linebackers, it is. It's really, you start to see a precipitous drop-off when they reach 29, 30, which we started to see last year and it really takes a nosedive and so for a guy that has been so relied upon for this defense in the middle of this defense and will continue to be that centerpiece i'm sure he will have the green dot on his helmet or he might uh and he's just going to be a really really pivotal point in that defense to help when stuff breaks down in the front seven or in the front and to help in his back end with his coverage skills and both of those took a dramatic dramatic fall

last year so I think the volatility that he presents because I don't think anyone would really be surprised if he came back and did what he has been able to do I think that's still well within the realm of possibility it's just how how likely, and he's probably going to have to buck the trend of older linebackers doing that. And I mean, he seems like a guy that could, but are you relying on that? Would you bet on that? I think that's a hard proposition. So I think Eric Hendricks and what he can do and who he is, whether last year is who he is now, or if he can reclaim some of that pre-2021 form, that's going to go a long way in deciding where this defense ultimately ends up. Yeah, I think that when it comes to Kendrick's run defense, that was the main part that really tanked his PFF grade. And now his coverage grade, like you said, it did drop, but it didn't drop to a point of being like he was really poor at that.

But he was really poor in run defense last year by the PFF grades. And I mean, my explanation for that is I think that most linebackers are greatly impacted by what's going on in front of them. Now, there are probably a handful who aren't. Luke Keekly was a guy who just year after year after year would have great grades. Bobby Wagner, it doesn't seem to matter what's going on in front of him. He's going to track people down because he's one of the best tacklers of the last decade, but that's not really Kendrick's because his size is an issue. I mean, he's an incredibly instinctual player and he's tough and he's fast and all those things, but he is like

six foot tall and 225 pounds. And so when you're not getting, um, you know, the effective play from the front four, it is easier for guards and centers to get out. And those guys have 50, 60 pounds on Eric Kendricks. So if they get a hand on him, they're probably going to be able to block him. And they played some teams also that ran a ton last year, just ran and ran and ran. Los Angeles ran over them. Cleveland ran over them. And it was a lot of that stuff. And we saw Michael Pierce barely play last year. And one notch down from Michael Pierce, you're talking about Sheldon Richardson who had no interest in being a run stuffer at all and then beyond Richardson it was Armand Watts who's

not really a run stuffer either so what they're hoping is this year by bringing in Harrison Phillips and having Delvin Tomlinson in there and those two have been healthy players throughout their careers if they play full seasons those guys can take up two blockers or make it more difficult for those offensive linemen to get out to block Kendricks. But the concern on the other side would be this, that the peak of your abilities, where your physical and mental abilities kind of come together, we've really seen some incredible peaks from Vikings defensive players. I mean, Harrison Smith, his peak is a little bit more extended because he doesn't have to rely on speed a ton. It's mostly his intellect and being in the right place and then being a playmaker.

But think about like Linval Joseph, Xavier Rhodes. Like these were peaks of players' careers that were maybe two to three years long. And we might be looking at that with Eric Hendricks because his speed and his intelligence matched up in those couple of seasons, but he did have a few injuries along the way. And even if he's not, if he's just good and he's not great, then the contract isn't worth it. And the player is not anywhere near as effective. That's the linebacker position, right? If it's just like running back, if a running back is great, I would argue that he's worth a contract.

If he's only just good, like Delvin Cook was only just good last year, you're suddenly not worth it at all because you can replace just good pretty easily. And with Kendricks, it's the one that, that you know when you wrote it i kind of went like oh man no one's gonna like this because yeah i mean you brought the facts about his play last year and also about the ages of linebackers but you just have so much respect for eric kendrick's and what he's done as a player that and he also has this ability to make plays in coverage so he he is so good and he explained to me one time, I think I asked him something about like, how do you get in these throwing lanes and have

quarterbacks like not see you there? Cause he's, you know, and get interceptions and things like that. And he talked about even understanding where the quarterback's eyes need to go on a read and how he could kind of crouch himself down and kind of get out of the lane of vision of where the quarterback's going to be. So you're talking about someone who is incredibly instinctual and that's why I've thought that he'll continue throughout his career, you know, to be good. But the lack of size when you're a little bit older, maybe a little bit, not as fast, could be problematic. He's such a popular player, though, and such a highly respected player that no one's going to say like, oh, you know, Kendricks has fallen off or anything.

But it is a concern just by age, just because of football history. And you're right. If he bounces back to all pro because of the way that the defensive line is playing and maybe how he fits in the system, they could have a very good defense, but the guy that you wrote about that I would have ahead of Kendrick's for being most important that you also put on your list was Patrick Peterson. And I think that's exactly right. They are relying on a corner that they signed to a $4 million contract to be their number one corner or hope that Cam Dantzler becomes a very,

very good and reliable player. And I mean, I think that this bet is maybe the toughest one to believe will come to fruition is that even though they don't have a great quarterback schedule, that this group of cornerbacks is going to be good enough to make them an above average defense. And you're asking Peterson at his age when he was pretty good last year, but at his age to just be the guy out there, I think that that, that one is one that's pretty questionable about this defense. Even if they rush the passer, even if lewis seen is good right away you're still saying hey dancer and peterson go get them boys and i mean but i want you to talk about though what you wrote about for how important this is to a defense that they have good coverage from the

corners because it really kind of blew my mind what you wrote about yeah so the vikings ranked in in terms of pff grade they ranked very So the Vikings ranked in terms of PFF grade, they ranked very middle of the pack in terms of coverage grade. They were 18th. And I think you look at that and you say, okay, 18th, that's not going to kill you. That's just about average. Like we can survive with 18th. Well, there were only two playoff teams that had worse coverage grades than the Vikings. Those were Arizona Cardinals and the Pittsburgh Steelers. Both immediately were lost in the first round of the playoffs. Eight of the top 10 pass coverage teams, according to PFF grade, made the playoffs.

So it's really like to make the playoffs, you got to have a top 10 pass coverage unit or very close to it. Most all teams are in that above average half. And I think that just shows the importance of how much pass coverage matters to winning. PFF has done a study on which type of their grades affects winning the most. And coverage is the biggest one in terms of defense, both in volatility wise. Like if you have a very bad pass coverage team you're going to be a very bad team and if you have a very good pass coverage team you're going to be very good just inherently teams are throwing the ball much more that is what you have

to stop you have to sell out to stop the pass you can be bad running against uh against the run but if you're bad against the pass you're just going to get lit up. We see it in the playoffs all the time with those good quarterbacks. When it comes down to it, you're going to get torched if you can't defend the passer. And so for the Vikings,

that really just means, I mean, they need to up their game from last year. And the only way that happens is if Patrick Peterson at least stays where he was last year. Because maybe they can get internal growth from Cam Dantzler. Maybe they can get internal growth from Louis scene. Maybe they can get something out of one of their first round cornerbacks.

And so all those things are potentials and have a good chance of happening. But if Patrick Peterson falls off, he becomes the Breshaad Breeland, the Mackenzie Alexander, that weak link in a defense that the Vikings have seen just torches their chances because defenses can really isolate a guy and they can go pick on him. And so Patrick Peterson is not going to be the best player on this defense, but he's a linchpin for them in that he can't be horrible. He needs to be at least average and somewhere that defenses aren't just licking their chops to go and attack. Because if he is, this

defense is really going to fall back down to that bottom third of the league. The past coverage grade is going to fall back down and it's going to be really hard to make the playoffs. But yeah, I thought that was really interesting. Just going through grades and seeing how teams fleshed out past coverage grade. If you were in the top 10, you were pretty much making the playoffs. The only teams that didn't, I think, were the Browns and the Saints. Saints obviously had horrible quarterback luck.

Browns also had some weird things happen with quarterbacks. But those were the top 10 teams, all really solid teams that are at least right around 500 or above. So if the Vikings have aspirations to make the playoffs, their coverage unit has to improve. Yeah. And this is actually why, I mean, on draft night, when we talked about, like, you can make a lot of sense of drafting two players in the secondary because of how vital that part of the game is to winning, you know, passing and stopping the pass. It's almost like in baseball, like you want to hit

home runs and also strike guys out. If you're a team that hits a lot of home runs and strikes a lot of guys out on defense, you're probably pretty good. Well, it's the same thing with if you're pretty good on offense and you could stop the pass on defense, you've got a chance to go somewhere. And this team not having a real shutdown corner is a hindrance to them being a great coverage team, but you need to be at least an above average coverage team. And I think that's what really that you wrote that sort of crystallized it is you can't just be like, okay, and have much of a chance, unless you have an incredible offense, that's going to counteract this. You have to be actually good, like above average,

if you're really going to compete. And with Patrick Peterson, I mean, I thought last year offenses design their game plan to throw at the other guys, because why wouldn't you? And so this year, it will be interesting to see how much other teams give respect to cam danzler i saw our friend will raggets was tweeting about how some of the advanced metrics liked cam danzler last year and i get that but also some of those metrics from year to year are really dicey because they depend a lot on who you play against what quarterbacks you go against what wide receivers you go against.

And this year is going to offer some really tough challenges in terms of wide receivers. So, I mean, week two, they go to Philadelphia. A.J. Brown is there now. And Aminra St. Brown for Detroit has developed to be a very good wide receiver. Michael Thomas is back in New Orleans. Miami's got Tyreek Hill. Arizona will have DeAndre Hopkins back,

Terry McLaurin, Stefan Diggs, C.D. Lamb. There are some very good wide receivers on this schedule. And if the Vikings struggle to cover them with their top guy and Dantzler doesn't continue with some of those metrics from last year that are very small sample size numbers, then you're just probably not making the playoffs unless the offense is absolutely spectacular. So there is a lot of things on him. Do you think they'd put Peterson on the top guys? I mean, I'm sure they wouldn't have any of them shadow particularly, but do you think they'd give that role more often to Peterson or Dantzler? I think that they will play sides. So they'll just say like, all right,

you're the left corner and you're the right corner and then you know adjust in the middle i mean we'll see but i think that's probably the way they do it because neither one of those guys i think you want to say okay deandre hopkins is your guy all day long but you know danzler is is an interesting player too to talk about for this because uh i am not ready to say that cam danzler is a good corner in the league because he had some tiny sample size metrics from last year that said that he did pretty well because i i would go back to a he lost a training camp battle to bashad breland and he every bit of lost that like i was there all right he was really struggling in camp and Breland was

better than him now Zimmer should have made the change faster he should have pulled Rashad Breland a couple of weeks into the season so sticking with that was a huge mistake but at the same time I mean there were lots of big moments that they needed Cam Dantzler to come through and opposing teams had no problem targeting him throwing to Amari Cooper in the end zone, throwing to Amon Ross St. Brown for the touchdown against the Detroit Lions. Like, I mean, Dantzler still had enough of his moments during his career where teams have attacked him and had success that I'm not ready to say like, oh, well, Zimmer had no idea what he was doing by playing someone else ahead of Dantzler. I'm hesitant on that, but also there's enough there to suggest that maybe he could be

a good corner in the league. And especially even if you go back to his draft where he dropped in the draft because of his 40, but he didn't drop because of his talent, like his, his ability to mirror and things like that. And they, you know, this is another thing that could swing it is just the depth at corner is always an issue for every team corners get hurt a lot. That's why Mike Zimmer would say, you know, you can never have too many corners. I agree with him on that. Shannon Sullivan and the nickel like there, that could be your weak link or does Andrew Booth end up in the game quite a

bit? You know know that's something that you know we don't really know is he going to be healthy is he going to be able to play in the NFL like we don't know when with any of these rookies so to have a bunch of players including Cam Bynum who I wouldn't be super super shocked if he ended up playing you know a lot of nickel at the end of the day I mean so I think so I think that they're just their quality of player in terms of talent is better this year than it was last year because of players that they brought in. But they also all have question marks.

Like, is Cam Bynum actually good? I'm not really sure. I mean, I think so based on a couple of games and what other people say about him, but I don't really know. And how much are they going to put him on the field and all those things? So there's a lot of question marks here, but I think that all starts with Patrick Peterson, the veteran being healthy and being able to at least, at least do an average to above

average job against some of these great wide receivers. And yeah, I think it's, I think you can say it's this defensive back room is more encouraging and you feel more optimistic about this room than you have in several years. I'm just not sure that's saying that much because you can say in one breath that, yeah, this team has a lot more talent in that room. They go out and add a couple first rounders. But with each of them, you can quickly pick apart what they do badly and how teams may try to attack them. So I think you can say that this is a defensive back unit that if things break right, can be average to above average. But I also think if you like, if you just say Cam Dantzler is not going to live up to what I think a lot of people are expecting of him. Then suddenly the room comes crumbling down. If Chandon Sullivan just can't play nickel and that's just a horrible, like that's just a horrible deficiency for this defense.

Suddenly their pass coverage just falls down again. If Patrick Peterson just falls off, he's 32, like cornerbacks don't make it past 34, 35. So he's nearing the end of his run. If he just falls off, it kind of falls apart. It's that weak link system that we talk about with the offensive line. So I agree. Patrick Peterson is the end of his run if he just falls off it kind of falls apart it's that weak link system that we talk about with the offensive line so I agree Patrick Peterson is the catalyst of that and just from a leadership perspective like he's playing well and he's leading that's

easier to listen to guys like that than if he's getting torched every week and he's trying to be a like leader in the locker room it just doesn't come across as well so he's going to be both on the field and off the field a really big part of that room and so i think he needs to be perform in both aspects of that if the vikings want to get the best out of their coverage unit but i think it's i mean the whole defense is volatile but that unit in particular has to be the most volatile of all of them just based on the personnel that they have yeah the word i was thinking of for this is fragile uh it's like so you know i follow the links i'll give you a links example you've covered some links for the press on a freelance basis so the links before this season brought in angel mccautry is one of the best

players in wnba history but she's 34 or something and coming off ACL surgery. And they were hoping that she would bounce back, play extremely well. And there are a lot of WNBA players who have played great into their mid to late thirties. I think what Sue Bird is like 41, Diana Tross. He's 40. So it's common for goats to,

for that to happen. And they had a laser Clarendon who had played extremely well for them last year so they bring her back and they're thinking all right you've got Clarendon you've got you know McCautry Sylvia Fowles like Damaris Dantas could get healthy she's a pretty good player and like look at this lineup if it's healthy and it's good like they can win 20 games 25 games and be right there in the mix for a championship but it was fragile and dantes got hurt mccautry couldn't come back they tried to sign odyssey sims she wasn't in shape to play or didn't want to play anymore whatever she's an older player as well uh clarendon wasn't healthy so they cut her and they signed sims and just and then all of a sudden it all falls apart

they're the worst team in the league. I'm not saying that happens to the Vikings, but like just a few weeks before the season, you would have projected them as maybe the fourth best team in the league or third best team in the league based on their starting lineup. And it was, but it was all fragile. They were all older players. Even Sylvia Fowles is hurt now.

And the same kind of thing exists here for the Vikings defense, where every single thing like zadarius smith deniel hunter lewis seen is a very talented player you just even look at the way he moves out there in minicamp you're like okay that's a guy who was drafted high this big giant dude who has like a remarkable speed but it's all fragile like it's all if if one thing doesn't work then it can cause another thing to not work. Like if Z'Darrius Smith is not healthy, it can cause Patrick Peterson's job to be more difficult because the pass rush impacts the coverage. Right. And so last year, part of the Vikings coverage grade being bad was that Mike Zimmer had to blitz all the time. And Patrick Peterson even said that at one point. He was like, yeah, we got a little blitz happy there.itz happy there like no not blitz happy you can't create pressure without blitzes basically because of your necessity yeah right front four because Daniil Hunter got hurt Everson Griffin had to leave the team like all of these things were fragile last year as well a lot of them went

wrong but if they go right you could see the defense being quite good so uh Paul this is predictions and projections week and i've been asking people on twitter to send their vikings predictions and what i said was anything anything you got whatever you want to send whatever prediction somebody ended the last show by predicting they would finish 16th and field goal percentage i don't know those are the type of predictions you can send so feel free to send them through purpleinsider.com contact us hit me with an email or dm me on twitter send me an at mention on twitter uh all of those things i'll put in the files but i've got a ton of these to get to so let's run through some uh this comes from at head coach 21. Justin Jefferson will lead the NFL in touchdown catches

with 18 more than a touchdown per game for Justin Jefferson. What do you think, Paul? I'm frantically trying to look up how many touchdowns Cooper Cup had last year, if that comes from that. He had 16 last year. Cooper Cup had 16 touchdowns. I don't think, I mean, obviously that's a big prediction. I think just because of Thielen being on the roster and kind of the connection that Kirk Cousins and Adam Thielen seem to have, and probably the reemergence of Irv Smith as a bigger red zone threat than Tyler Conklin ever was, I think getting to 18 touchdowns for Justin Jefferson would be very difficult. I think if we were going to kind of set, could he reach like the yards mark of Cooper Cup or the touchdown mark of Cooper Cup? I think he would be more of a bell cow receiving

type threat and where he's just racking up tons and tons of yards. I think the Vikings just have a lot of ways that they can go in the red zone. And so I think Justin Jefferson isn't as much of a kind of like shifty Cooper cup, finding the lanes in the red zone type of guy. And so that's where I'm kind of comparing him right now for this. So I would say Justin Jefferson ends up challenging the yards mark or his yards mark. He set last year that almost got the record. I think he sets gets closer to that than he would to getting any sort of touchdown record. Go to SodaStick.com. That is S-O-T-A-S-T-I-C-K, our loyal sponsor. Check out all of their great

Minnesota themed gear for your playoff run in hockey or for baseball season. If you're headed out in the nice weather to a baseball game, that is S O T A S T I C K. SodaStick.com hats, t-shirts, hoodies. If you need them for a cool evening in the summer, SodaStick.com has you covered. Yeah. I mean, it's hard to say with touchdowns touchdowns are very volatile from year to year with almost any player I mean even even Randy Moss would have like 17 and then the next year he might have nine and a lot of those were just bombs but even even with those like if

you get tackled at the one yard line then they hand off to Moweldy more for a touchdown. It's like what they have some name for it in fantasy, just like guys who steal touchdowns from anybody else. And yeah, I mean, that's why it's difficult to say, like, could he get 18 touchdowns? But I think that the receptions and yards are the thing that have the most chance to be absolutely absurd rather than the touchdowns. And I always, I've started thinking of it this way too. that have the most chance to be absolutely absurd rather than the touchdowns and i always i've started thinking of it this way too i just cannot stand the idea of like quarterback touchdowns

being a way that we evaluate quarterbacks like touchdown passes now i know that like okay if you're brady or you're rogers you're gonna throw 40 or 50 like that's always possible for you but there's so many times where you just run the ball in the red zone and score it's like like you go back and look at john elway's statistics and you would think that the guy was just not good at all but then you look where his offense is ranked year after year and it's like oh top five top five top seven top five like oh okay so John Elway is driving the success of this team and yet you know they're running the ball when they get into the red zone there will be some of that with the Vikings as well where they're going to give it to Delvin Cook when they're at the five yard line probably once or twice every time before throwing the ball because

Delvin Cook is a very easy option to score a touchdown. So I've never been a big fan of that. Like, oh, this guy threw this many touchdowns and he was better than that guy. Like fantasy. Yes. You want the teams that throw in the red zone, but I've always thought that looking at how the offense performed as a whole, how often you score, how, you know, just how many points you put up is probably a better indication of how the quarterback plays than something like the box score, know stat so if if justin jefferson only ends up with six touchdowns that doesn't mean he had a bad year that just means that they didn't decide to throw to him in the red zone um 18 would really surprise me but also as random as touchdowns are maybe this is the year they cover somebody else or they get really creative in

the red zone and find ways to get him the ball i i mean it's like is it possible yeah i guess so uh let me go on to the next one this from swede skull uh the combination of smith tomlinson phillips and hunter up front will play so well together that they'll earn a nickname that will solidify them in Vikings history in the same realm of the Williams wall. I mean, you, you are, you are, you have crushed the purple Kool-Aid and snorted it right into your brain

with this. I mean, look, look, if you, they could have a very good defensive line, but if you look back through the history of the Vikings defensive lines, you got to do a lot to get in a conversation where you get a nickname.

They don't just hand those out. Like this unit might just be together for a year. Yeah, right, right. They're probably not going to be together for more than a year, maybe two years. But how good can they be, Paul? I think they can be really good if they stay healthy. Zedaria Smith was that last guy on the list that I mentioned. And yeah, he missed all of last season with a back injury,

and that's a big, big, massive concern. But let's just for a second assume the back injury heals, which again, that's a big assumption to make. But if we're making that, he was healthy the last three seasons prior, didn't miss a game, racked up 32 combined sacks, like 150-something pressures. Like, Zedaria Smith was an animal, and Daniil Hunter has continued to be an animal. But I – and so I think they can be really good. I think they can be above average.

But I think what you're shooting for is just one of the seasons that you kind of had in the last previous seasons when Everson was playing really well and Daniil Hunter was playing really well and Linval Joseph was playing solidly. Like, I think that type of performance is the ceiling for this group. And that's if they stay healthy. And that group didn't get it. That Linval Joseph, Everson Griffin, Daniel Hunter, they didn't get a nickname. So I think if we're trying to project out, I think Vikings would be happy to get that type of performance from their defensive line. And I think if they stay healthy, you can expect something closer to that because they're all really good players. It's just health is such a major concern that some of those other guys never had to deal with. But if we're putting health aside, yeah, I think they can be really good.

I think they can challenge kind of that 2017 defensive line, 2018 defensive line. It's just for a matter of how long they can do it. I think they can do it in spurts, like for a couple games where they look really good. But if we're asking them to do it with an aging Zedaria Smith and an injury riddled to Neil Hunter for anything longer than a couple of games in a row. I think that's a really, really hard proposition for this team. Yeah. I think it would be really difficult for them to approach 2017 or 2018 in part 2017 because of B Rob,

like Brian Robinson is coming off of the bench as a pass rusher situationally. Tom Johnson played extremely well as an interior pass rusher, but Linval Joseph in 2017, he was not just good. He was like top three at the position. Aaron Donald, always the defensive tackle who's the best in the league,

but top three at the position in terms of PFF grade in 2017 i think he had five and a half sacks that year i mean he was doing absolutely everything there the the high end this is where i would really not say it's going to be that level of great the high end of harrison phillips and delvin tomlinson gets two or three sacks like those guys just are not pass rushers and if we're talking about great defensive lines, you have to have pass rush from every part of the D line. It can't just be, Hey, you know, Dalvin Tomlinson's an above average run stuffer.

And so is Harrison Phillips. And both of them are like, try hard guys who are smart and you like them. Like that's great. Um, but that's not wreaking havoc where those guys are getting 40 sacks by themselves just as a defensive line or something crazy like that. And then the rotational players essentially don't exist beyond Armand Watts. Armand Watts played pretty well last year, got a lot of opportunity last year to play, and I think they should be happy with that. But it's not like he's B-Rob, who was a very, very good player for a long time for this team. And then, you know, after that, you know, Patrick Jones, we'll see.

Janarius Robinson, we'll see. DJ Wanham got sacks last year, but I think by now, I mean, people understand that a lot of those were kind of cleanup sacks and he wasn't a consistent pressure guy and hasn't been. And it's like, I just, you know, I can't see this team maybe even having more than like a top 10 defensive line. Also, like, look around the league. Like, there are a lot of really good defensive lines around the NFL. Look at the first two teams that they're going to play.

I don't think their D line is better than the Packers. I don't think their D line is better than the Eagles. So I think it could be good. It can be really good, but it has to stay completely healthy to be really, really good. And it doesn't have a whole lot of depth, even where you can rotate different guys in and feel super confident. That interior rush really surprises me that like, think about like three years in a row, spending a lot of money in free agency on a run stuffing defensive tackle like that's one thing that i i didn't really understand about this as much as i like harrison phillips and people in buffalo that i know say hey harrison phillips is a

guy you guys are gonna like and and he's a really like a good player but not one of those impact players the way that uh tom and Linval Joseph were causing pressures and sacks pretty consistently up the middle in 2017. Yeah. And that's why I think you could see spurts where this team gets on a hot streak in terms of the defensive line for a game or two, two, three games where they look really good and they make you think about defensive lines of the past. But again, if we want to bring the injury stuff into it, then it's just so unlikely that Hunter and Smith stay healthy for 16 games or even that either of them, like one of them, stays healthy for 16 games.

I think you have to build in some games where they're not going to be there, and it quickly drops off with, with what they've got left there. It brings you back to last year in which they were like bottom, like bottom three in terms of pass, pass, rush, win rate. I always struggled to say that and really struggled run stopping too. So I think all, all that, if we put on the rose colored glasses of them staying healthy, I think,

yeah, you can see them, you know, top 10, top eight defensive line, but I think that's kind of the ceiling. And then you factor in the injuries and that's where they feel like they're going to come back closer to average.

All right. Uh, let's, uh, get two more in here for predictions and projections week from at Kai Baxter. Vikings will regret trading with Detroit as Jamison Williams becomes an absolute stud who torments the Vikings two times a year

for the next decade. Decade-long predictions here. I mean... We can't prove him wrong until 2032. Right, right. Like those people who say, well, you can't judge a draft class for three years. And you're like, oh, OK.

Like, I guess I'll wait three years then. Hey, Paul, you want to talk about today the 2019 draft class or whatever? Because we've pretty much got that. Well, actually, we don't have it completely resolved with Irv Smith. And maybe it's eight years. We got to wait eight years so we can only start talking about maybe like the 2014 class. Decent. Teddy should have stayed healthy.

Anyway, I'm just kidding. But if you want to be safe, we can just wait to the end of their careers and then judge the draft pick if you'd like. Yeah, maybe. But then, you know, it's not enough hindsight. We need at least like for Hall of Fame consideration, there's like four years that you need. So maybe it's four years after a player's retired. Then we could talk about a draft class. It's fine if people grade draft classes the next day.

I'm ready to finally break down Jared Allen when you're ready. What was the question? So I... Jameson Williams. Yeah. Yeah. I think that, um,

I think that they, they're playing with matches and a very hot fire right next to them by trading with Detroit and with Jameson Williams. I'm sure that this prediction came on the back of that video that came out of the Detroit draft room where they went absolutely crazy when they were able to get Jameson Williams and make that trade. I mean, look, you're, you're, I thought they should have drafted Jameson Williams and I really, really liked him as a prospect, as somebody who has special bursts and could be a great player in the league. And it would not shock me at all.

If by the second time they played Detroit, Jameson Williams is in the league and it would not shock me at all if by the second time they play detroit jameson williams is in the lineup and we're talking about that storyline and he's catching passes and making plays i mean it's very possible he has the upside of being a star player in the nfl and you gave him to detroit it could be a problem if if it's not, though, if he just becomes another guy, then you probably won the trade. Because it's not about Louis Scene, right? Louis Scene is a very talented player and a good draft pick. And other teams had him ranked higher than 32 on their draft boards. But with Williams, you did pass up and hand somebody in the division, a very, very talented player.

And I think all Vikings fans probably had the same reaction at the time. Like, oh no, oh no, don't know. No. Cause you know where that train is going. Yeah. I think you just hope that Detroit draft, um, war room video doesn't go down in the lore of the Vikings one when the Eagles passed on Justin Jefferson, and you can kind of see them all go, oh, okay, they picked Jalen Rager instead of Justin Jefferson. Thank God. So I think you're hoping it doesn't go down in the lore like that. But yeah, I think for this year, you probably won't necessarily feel those effects. Everything we've seen and heard about Jamison Williams is going to be out for a while and i would guess uh that they're going to take him along slowly because they do view him more as a guy they want on their roster for 10 years and not one that

they're hoping to just make a push for a wild card with this year so this might be more of a delayed um you know oh no from vikings fans i don't necessarily think they're going to bear the brunt of it this year, but they're certainly going to feel it the next couple of years. And we'll see if that is feelings of my God, how do we do that? Or it feels more like, okay, that he's a solid player, but we got a good safety out of it. So I think, I think this is more, this again is a long-term play.

We're not going to be able to answer this question for a few years now, especially this year as he works his way back from an ACL. Right. And I've seen players who are veterans who have missed a lot of time during training camp Latavius Murray comes to mind and coming back after that, there's always a bit of a shake off the rust because you think at the level of quickness and speed you have to have, it has to be at a hundred percent or you're, you're going to struggle, especially if that's your game with Jamison Williams. And then he's got to learn the mental part and get familiar with how they want to run their offense and everything else. I think by the time the Vikings played Detroit the second time, maybe he's a bit player. So that's not going to really impact you

hugely in this first year. Um, but as time goes on, yeah, I mean, what you're talking about is very possible that he could torment the Vikings and they may have done that to themselves. Uh, okay. Last one real quick. Um, so we don't end on Vikings being tormented. I have learned, Paul, that in June, you have to kind of be like, look, I'm not going to go too hard here because it's June and none of us know what's going to happen. So let's not say that another player is going to ruin the Vikings' dreams for the next decade and end with that. Let's go with this one.

Jokerman5000 on Twitter. Irv Smith will break Joe Sensor's team record for most receiving yards by a tight end in a season, thus putting the team in a position of having to decide whether to pay him based on one good year of production. What do you think Irv Smith Jr. team record in receiving? Yeah, I'm trying to look up what Joe Sensor's record was. It looks like he had 1,004 yards in 1981. So that's where we're going off of just a little bit outside of my purview. Just, you know, wasn't watching a ton of 1981 football. But I would say I don't think Irv Smith needs to get to that type of level for the Vikings to be willing and want to give him a contract. I think having a dynamic tight end is a really important piece in this league if you can get one.

We've seen teams really be able to use that as a cheat code in terms of the way that they run their offenses. And so I think Irv Smith profiles like one of those guys, and I can certainly see him playing really well this year in this new system and garnering a new contract. But I think if that happens, I wouldn't feel much hesitancy to pay him. I don't think unless he, I think he'd have to go even further than that to garner one of these massive, massive tight end contracts that we're seeing Travis Kelsey get and others get. But I think like if Irv Smith proves to be a solid Kyle Rudolph level player, like in his this year, even less than that, I wouldn't have much hesitancy about paying him on that one year.

I think he showed signs in his first couple of years and then obviously has the unfortunate injury, but it didn't feel like early in his career. It was like Irv Smith can't play. And that if he played really well this year, it would be viewed as an anomaly. I think it would be viewed as a delayed step up that we expected him to have last year, but were robbed of because of an injury. And if he does that, I think it just kind of shows he is progressing forward and you should give him a contract. So I think a thousand yards is a little rich for a tight end, especially when you have a

Justin Jefferson and you have an Adam Thielen on your team, but can he be a big red zone factor? And can he be a big guy on third downs to move the chains and provide more than Tyler Conklin did last year. I think he can. And at that point he's, he's worthy of another contract. It's difficult for tight ends to get to a thousand yards because they usually average about 10, 11 yards a catch. Receivers will get 14, 15, 17 yards of reception sometimes. And so that adds up pretty quick, but you need like a hundred catches in order to get there i do think if anybody gets hurt though that irv smith does have a chance to be that guy that

pushes 4 000 yards just because their depth at wide receiver is not very much so if kj osborne gets hurt or theelin or jefferson then you're talking about okay who's the next guy that they're going to be throwing to a lot and this this even happened somewhat with Tyler Conklin. You know, he ends up getting a lot of targets last year and having a very good season. And I think that if you projected Irv Smith's year to be similar to Tyler Conklin, you want to pay him, but also he doesn't even have to be great to get paid because if you look at tight end contracts, even the high end guys are not getting insane, insane, insane money. But the second level down is getting not a lot at all. And so if you're one level down from a George Kittle or a Travis Kelsey,

you are a very affordable quality pass catcher. So I think that that's probably where we'll end up being at the end of the year. Maybe not a thousand yards, but I wouldn't be surprised if it's like 800, somewhere in that ballpark, if he ended up with 60 to 70 catches and somewhere around 750 to 800 yards. I think that's probably the best view. And then, yes, absolutely, you're signing him. And the way that he played in training camp last year has stayed with everyone.

Even Kirk Cousins brought it up. He thought, man, this guy is going to be one of my top weapons. So I don't think this is a crazy hot take. It's the absolute best case scenario, but I don't think saying that he could break the team record is like, oh man, get out of here. Go, go fly a kite. You weirdo. Like, no, I mean, I think that's within the realm of possibility. It's just with tight ends it usually takes a lot um because they are like a check down option so often it takes a lot of catches to get you there so i wouldn't quite predict them to be in like 90 to 100 range um but it's not insane it's not insane so um that's the best you could do with predictions if i don't call

you a total crazy person then you've done well. Paul, great stuff. You got to run to go do some reporting for WCCO radio. So we will have, let's see, Mike Clay is supposed to be on the show from ESPN as we continue predictions and projections week. And so we will carry on. Will Raggetts will have his show this week. So lots still to come. Thanks for your time, Paul. And thank you all for listening to purple.