Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - Why is everyone mocking Dillon Thieneman to the Vikings?(Part 2)

Episode Date: March 27, 2026

Matthew Coller talks about a recent piece on Vikings.com that looked at a bunch of different mock drafts and they seemingly all have Oregon safety Dillon Thieneman coming to Minnesota. Matthew explores whether that's a good idea and looks at the rogue NFL mock drafts that go with different players other than Thieneman. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Let's see. Well, Bradley, I can't have Quasi on the podcast because he works for the 49ers. He got hired pretty fast by San Francisco. I have had him before and would love to have him on again, but I don't think that's, don't think that's going to happen now that he works for another team. Stephen, if they trade Grenard, then draft an Edge Day 2. The Edge depth chart would be Gink Turner.

Oh, you want Cam Jordan? And then a second rounder. edge is a tough position because normally you do have to draft it pretty high you could take one in the second there it's supposed to be deep as far as an edge class and the middle first round edge rushers don't always work out um is that uh shrieff uh do i think that they sign cam jordan it would be cool because of steve jordan i don't think they do that that seems like one of the things that we always talked about with larry fitzgerald like do you think the get Larry Fitzgerald.

Like, no, I don't, but maybe. I don't think that they're going to sign Cam Jordan. But, you know, I mean, it's possible. I think he probably hangs out and either retires and goes and works for NFL network or he goes back to the Saints. I don't know. Stephen. Yeah, Kyle Hamilton was that type of player that they passed on to draft Harrison Smith.

But that's kind of the point, though, about the safety position. in order to justify it, the guy has to be Kyle Hamilton or better. And it, you know, if it's, if Dylan Thineman is just good, then he's like Cambinem. And you can find and develop Cambinem. You can't find and develop a Harrison Smith. You can only find those guys normally at the top of the draft. And also, they're worth it. They're worth the investment.

They're worth the money that you pay them. They're needle movers. but there's only a handful of needle movers in the NFL at the safety position at any given time. And Hamilton just happens to be one. And yes, they blew that by not drafting him. But we can't go back at time and make that happen now. So they have to consider is Thineman, like don't chase the Hamilton mistake by drafting Thineman. Like, is he that guy?

I think he's very good. I'm not sure that he's that guy in order to spend that high of a pick. Rich says the kid hasn't seen NFL defenses. yet he couldn't even start and make calls like Harrison. Well, he could start. The fastest position from going to college to the NFL in general, historically, has been safety. And this was something that was studied by PFF a couple years ago. Safety is the quickest transition.

We talk about how guards is really tough. Edge rushers don't start to hit their peak till like year three. But safeties do transition to the NFL and running backs really quickly. So he could come in and play. but what they have going on with Harrison Smith here, I wouldn't expect to ever see again. There are guys who are going to make checks and there are guys who are going to be, you know, Josh Mattelis is a very intelligent player and will probably someday be an NFL coach. I think if he wants to, he could easily do it.

See, he's very, very smart. Harrison is a freak. He is a completely different thing. People don't play this long at this position, even to get to the point where they have this much knowledge and instinct for the game, he's a first round pick, he's a Hall of Fame level talent. It's just a different thing. So nobody they drafted the safety position is going to be able to do that. But you could have Thineman play a role as a free safety and move around a little bit

of times to start and then have Josh Mattelis call the defense with the idea of maybe training long term for him to do that. Joe, I thought the same thing. If Daniel Jeremiah said someone else, it would be parroted by everyone else. is something that has been actually shown with the data on grinding the mocks, which tracks all the mock drafts from like actually at all times tracks where guys are going up and down. And I believe it was, I believe it was grinding the mocks. Benjamin Robinson runs that who found that when Daniel Jeremiah moves a player on his

big board that everybody else does too. And I, yeah, I mean, I get it because Daniel Jeremiah is great. but there's a lot of the same results for all prospects when if everybody got in their own room and didn't talk to anybody else and didn't have any social media and couldn't read anything and just watch tape where would they rank people versus well hey this guy knows what he's talking about and he's dialed in he's really good so if he's moving a guy that I'm moving a guy that's what's happening and it just feels like there's really only a handful of people who are setting the agenda and then everybody else is sort of going along with them.

And that might be on the broadcast. Everybody saw it. He said, as Dylan Thineman was doing his stuff, he said, you know, seems like a good guy for number 18 with the Vikings. And then it felt like everyone just put him there after that. And he might be right because Daniel is great at his job. Is that donut, dunnets, done outdoors? Seems kind of weird that we haven't heard anything about GM prospects for

The Vikings almost feels like it's already Rob Brzezinski's job. I don't know. What do you think? Well, that's going to be a good question for the owner of the Vikings, which we will talk to at the owner's meetings in a couple of days. Is, are there candidates? Are there interviews? Or it might be a case where they want everything done, player drafted, everybody sign,

the roster is what it is. And then they start the process of finding a GM. when you get into May and June especially, I mean, that's a dead time for the roster. Right now, they're running draft meetings and scenarios and all sorts of different stuff every day inside of the building. So maybe you're not wanting to do it now as it could be a distraction, especially for Kevin O'Connell, the coaching staff. If you're going to have a GM search, then you want O'Connell to be very involved in your meetings.

You don't just want the owner to be sitting there in a room doing his interviews, and that's it. You want other people involved who are going to be here. I mean, I was even thinking it's possible that Rob Brzynski is involved in some of the other interviews, but I guess that would be a conflict if he wants the job. But if the plan, we don't know what the plan is. If the plan is to move Brzeinski to a president of football operations or something, which I think is the best idea to have that buffer in between the GM and the coach, if that's how they decide to do it, then he might.

be in on those things. And he's got to be focused on right now on the draft and having those meetings and getting their board set and their plans and whatever trade, you know, for Jonathan Granard, if it's going to happen and so forth. So I don't think that we're going to get general manager candidates trickling in until after they have actually done the draft, all the dust has settled, and then they can make their decision there. Matt totally agree too many days until the draft do it to me.

Tomorrow? Yeah, I know. I know. Rich says I think they should try to trade JJ to the Browns of the Jets. It would all depend on the offer for me. It would all depend on the offer. If the Cleveland Browns came to the Vikings and said, we will give you our second round draft pick for J.J. McCarthy. That would be hard to say no. History, the injuries, gestures at everything. fact that you went out and got another quarterback and then told them you might be our long-term guy like all sorts of all that stuff nothing really points to this is the going to make it i've continued to say that i still think there's a chance and it's unpredictable and you don't want to be giving away quarterbacks if you think that there's a chance but at the same time if you

were a betting man as you know we had the guy earlier betting a thousand dollars from them to win the super bowl that's uh be a little much if you were telling if you were asking me hey i want to bet a thousand $1, McCarthy is not their starting quarterback at 2027. I'd say put that money down there, my friend, because it's unlikely that that's going to happen. And if it's unlikely that's going to happen, and another team's coming to you with fairly decent draft capital, then go for it.

But if they're saying, you know, we'll get a fourth like Tray Lance was traded for, well, I wouldn't do that right now. At the end of camp, maybe, maybe you do it. Planet Yevin is, do you feel the possibility exists that KOC is considered as the GM coach combo. No, I do not. I do not think that inside the building, intern Paul for the Masters.

Yeah, intern Paul got to cover the Masters last year. And it was incredible. That was Rory, right? Yeah, good for him. But the KOC thing, they wanted KOC to be working with the GM directly and having it be the collaboration, work together.

You go get what the coaching staff want. you give your input, big picture, that sort of stuff, didn't really end up working. The way that I would like to see it is, and when you have coach and GM on different timelines, it really gets messy here. The way I'd like to see it is Rob Brasinski, President of Operations, he is the direct line to ownership. He is ownership's eyes and ears. This is someone trusted for a very, very long time.

And now that I'm watching, actually watching all of succession, like this is his Jerry. This is his legal counsel for Logan Roy, if you guys have watched the show. This is the person that is the most loyal, the most trusted, and also knows the NFL inside and out is deeply connected with the rest of the league and has a vision and has seen teams rise and fall for the Vikings, has seen them succeed, has seen them fail, has been around, right? Have him be at the very top of that building. He walks around, you answer to him.

Then the general manager answers to him. Rob and COC answers to the general manager. That's the way that I would like it. Like the general manager has the final call unless it's vetoed by Rob Brzezinski. So Brzezinski has to sign off on everything that they're doing. And that's the structure. That's how I would like it to be. I would like the coach to have a lot of input on how he wants things to be done.

I don't want coaches making roster decisions because they do stuff that only benefits them right here, right now. they only draft, they only want to draft the player who can fill an immediate need because they need to win this year. And that is not the way you want it to go for a long-term roster bill. And that's why you give Rob Brzezinski the buzzer to say, nope, we ain't doing that. To have the final decision on stuff, I think is a really good idea for Brzinski even right now and not handing it over, well, KOC is just going to make all the decisions.

You don't want a guy who's under an incredible amount of pressure to be just, throwing away your future because he knows he needs to win right now, which I think if the off season was different, it was run by the coaches, we would have had more emergency podcasts, is my guess. But, you know, we didn't because I'm just putting two and two together here that they believe the franchise will continue to exist into the future. So that's the structure that I would like. I think going from a nine and eight season,

letting go a quarterback who won the Super Bowl, failing on your quarterback draft pick four years without a playoff win is not the time to give someone all the power that that's probably the biggest issue there son of beavers who do you think will have will rise the highest in the draft and whose stock will decline hmm that's a really good question i haven't thought about it in that way i mean in part because i i think that draft stock inside the NFL is probably settled. But like who on the outside? I do they change a lot from now?

I guess they do. I guess they do. You know, Trayvon Walker is the example. I'm trying to think who that would be this year, though. Because there's just such a lack of controversial prospects. They tried to make Ruben Bain controversial. Then he has his pro day. And it's like, well, I guess he's just awesome.

And he'll probably get drafted super high. But there might be, there might be with Rubin Bain. he might be the guy who drops. Jeremiah Love, you know, probably the best candidate for dropping, surprisingly. I think this is what you're getting at, not like pre-draft stuff, but actually here's where they're expected to go, but they don't go there, is Caleb Downs. If there really is, and there was one report of some medical issues, if there's a report of a medical issue, or just the positional value, him and Jeremiah Love, the league might say,

that's great, you guys are wonderful players, but we're not drafting you in the top five to seven prospects. They might, they might do that because the league now thinks much more about what we've been talking about than it ever did before. Those guys would be probably my two candidates to drop. And risers might be someone like Avion Terrell, Jermad McCoy. Corners might actually end up going higher than a lot of people are projecting them. That's, that's just a, again, that's a really good question for Chris Tripasso too. I'll try to put that in the back pocket and ask him next week. SWAT, what do you think? Do you think KOC will change the offense for Kyler Murray and run more out of the shotgun?

Or is he too stubborn and makes Kyler adjust to what he wants to run? I actually do not believe that this is after watching 22 games of Kyler Murray over the last two years. So 2024 and 2025, I don't believe the offenses are that different. I really don't. the offense that Drew Petsing put in there was in the same family as Kyle Shanahan. And there's a lot of crossover with Kevin O'Connell. There were a lot of downfield routes from under center. There is a lot of play action.

There is a lot of shotgun. I mean, that's true. There is a lot of shotgun. But the Vikings use a lot of shotgun too. Only 20, I think it was 27 percent of Sam Darnold's passes in 2024 came from under center. They ran a lot under center, but I think that's one of the reasons you get Frank Smith here is to improve the running game out of the shotgun. That I think they do have to do more run out of the shotgun.

But that, I mean, I don't think that'll be an issue. You can run outside zone out of the shotgun. Teams do it all the time. And Miami did it like crazy and averaged 5.7 yards of carry with Devon A Chan. And had Rahim Mosterd, I think, lead the league in touchdown runs or something. I forget. He had a big year. I mean, there's something to that being able to run out of the game.

the shotgun that might be a little more favorable for Kyler Murray to run the RPO stuff where maybe he could scramble or design run or maybe he's a little more comfortable running some of those play actions than under center. But he did it. He did wide zone boots where he's rolling out and you got the three levels of receivers coming over. I truly don't believe that this is a complete overall. I think that he is going to run Kevin O'Connell's offense and I think he's going to be good at it because he's run something similar. And the idea. that you're just, Sam Darnold twisted our thought of what this offense is because he's insane at throwing the ball deep. But Kirk wasn't doing that.

Kirk wasn't ripping every pass into a tight window. Kirk wasn't throwing these 40-yard brilliant dimes on, I mean, sometimes he was, but not like all the time like Sam Darnold did. I think Kyler's going to play it a lot like Kirk did. I think he's going to play it largely safe, hit some shots, take some shots to Jefferson and Addison when they're there. But it's going to be a lot of stuff that's 12 or 14 yards and things like that dig routes and things like that, timing stuff, out routes that gets you eight or nine yards, keeps things moving.

And then Kyler, go do something spectacular now and then. But I don't think this is a massive, oh man, we got this player, need to build every, rebuild everything from scratch. we have not already done a mock yet tonight i will do one at the at the end of the show for sure we'll have to figure out let's um somebody guys set the parameters for the mock we'll do that maybe in the next like 15 20 minutes um set the parameters for the mock like what what do you want it to be for tonight maybe we don't draft dylan thinaman is the first parameter Derek, is it possible?

The Daniel Jeremiah thing is more connected to his industry sources, indicating a player maybe going earlier as opposed to movement being based on a personal assessment. Of course, his industry sources have a role in what he does. He's also a former NFL scout. He's very credible. And I think that's what it really is, is I brought this up the other day at random and I'm feeling the need to bring it up again, that when there are sometimes when a team,

releases a player. The team has great credibility and you go, well, if they, if they were moving on, it's like I said about trading with Howie Roseman. If Howie Roseman wants to trade with you, you say no and you hang up that phone. It's kind of like that with Daniel Jeremiah. If Daniel Jeremiah, who has been so good at this for so long and is so knowledgeable and is so locked in and has been a scout himself before he's been in those meetings, if he thinks that a prospect is the 38th best guy, and everybody else has him as the 15th best guy, you're going to look at yourself in the mirror and go, oh, okay, well, he's like the best of the best. It must be something that I'm not really seeing, or he must know something, which he does a lot.

But the thing about Daniel Jeremiah is that his hit rate on mock drafts is no different than anybody else because we don't know what's going to actually happen because teams don't go and tell everyone who they're going to draft, including him. So he's really good at it. And he's my favorite guy to watch and listen to. And I've listened to his podcast. And I had Bucky Brooks, his partner on the show the other day, on the Move the Sticks show.

Love that show. But nobody, unless you're actually working for the teams, inside those meetings, setting those draft boards. Because if you tell people who you're going to draft, you get fired. Not only that, one person makes the call at the end of the day. So a scout or whatever else can tell anybody who they want at the comment. Yeah, we love this guy, but you're not making the decision.

So that's why it's so hard to pin those things down. But I think as an evaluator, Daniel Jeremiah is so good at this that if he sees something wildly different than everyone else, they go, oh, okay, all right. Well, I've got to adjust that because I must, I must not have it right. It's fair. It's not. But there is also so much group think. It's like the board gets set, then it gets reset after the combine, and then everyone's looks basically the same after that. planet Yevin Harrison for Harrison to play for the same team for an entire career as a rarity.

Absolutely. 100%. 100%. An incredible career. That's why if you're chasing that, if you're trying to draft someone to chase that, not easy to do. Skull says quarterback, Skull Shadow. Quarterback is rarely the best player available. They get pushed up because it's the most important position.

Certainly. And that's kind of a lot of the main discussion that we're talking about here. The reason, even if Dylan Thineman is a much better prospect than T.J. Parker, you still might take T.J. Parker because it's a tough position to replace. You can't get them in free agency. You have to draft them high in order because physical gifts are such a big part of the success at that position. There's very few Max Crosby's and a lot more Nick Bosa's and Miles Garrets who become the total freaks. like DeNeal Hunter is the extreme outlier, as we know, because the Vikings tried to chase DeNeal Hunter and recreate that draft pick 100 times and kept failing every time at it. So there's, that's the order of things. It doesn't just apply to quarterback.

It also applies to edge rusher. It applies to wide receiver. And that's why those guys are making 42 to 45 million because getting somebody that valuable, you try to keep them forever. That's, that's why they're getting paid so much. Um, so yeah, that's the thing. And, uh, speaking of that, the Fandul question of the day was, Ty Simpson is now plus 4,000 to go number two in the NFL draft after some recent buzz, I suppose, or debate at least about him. Uh, where do you think he actually goes? And are the Vikings involved in this somehow? Is there a draft there? Uh, Bradley says, says, I take Sadiq. And you do

the same thing that I, I do, which is mess. When you type it, you type it backwards. and it messes up sometimes. He's a very easy guy to typo for some reason. Derek, there is a legitimate drop after Thinemann at safety, but the class is deep. I just don't think there are many players in the same tier past 18. That is, and then you said, especially at the so-called premium positions,

not a good draft at those positions this year. I think it is at corner, and I think it is at receiver. I think receiver is deep into the second. round. I also think it's good at number 18. There's several receivers that are worth that level of draft pick. That was like a, it was a thing that was set very early of, hey, this is a linebacker draft. It's a safety draft. There's not the elite elite of this or that or the other thing. But that doesn't mean there's nothing. It doesn't mean that there's no good edge rusher at

18. It just means that there's not, I think a lot of those people are referring to the very top. They're at edge rusher, there is not a super freak megastar type player at the very top of the draft at pass rusher or at quarterback or really even at wide receiver. Carnell Tate is good, but he's not the same level of a wide receiver prospect as like a Malik neighbors. That's, I think what it refers to because when I look at the prospects and now, what is this? I don't know, nine or ten drafts that we've done over the years. And I look at the profiles of the prospects who are expected to go in the late.

first or second and into the third and I go, I don't see that big of a difference between any other year. It's not like I get to the second round of my draft sims and go, man, I don't know, liking should just trade all their picks. Like, there's plenty of talent, I think, in that ballpark, even at some of the premium positions. Even defensive tackle is, well, defensive tackle might be the one that's, that there's a case there because there are not many guys that I can find that are past rushing defensive tackles. So there is that. Now, you're saying that there's a huge drop off from Thineman to the next safety. The trade down for McNeil Warren. McNeil Warren's stock has kind of moved all over the place. Some people had him as high as like 13. And then now it

feels like he's a back end of the first round guy. I would put, you know, your chips on a safety like that is not likely to go in the top 15. That would be very sort of. surprising just historically, it doesn't really happen. Even Wari, even not going in the first round, tells a story there. If it is true that inside of their building, they see Thineman as the top, top level of what we're talking about, the best, the, he is going to be the Kyle Hamilton, the Derwin James, that level, the Harrison Smith, then okay, then it's worth it. And that's my thing about breaking this down.

It's not that there's no scenario where it's worth. it if that's what they think he's going to be. But that's what he has to be to make it worth it. So if you draft a wide receiver and the guy catches 60 balls and is as good as Jacobi Myers, Jacobi Myers is paid. Jacobi Myers is paid as much as Antoine Winfield Jr. That's the whole point is if your guy becomes Jacobi Myers, who's fine, then it's worth as much as if your guy becomes a.

superstar safety. And I know that everything doesn't come down to the pay, but the pay tells the story. That's what the free market NFL is deciding, this is what this position is worth. It's worth X. And that number with even decent wide receivers like Jacoby Myers or even bad wide receivers like Jerry Judy, Jerry Judy makes $17 million. That guy's not even good. There's all sorts of those guys.

I mean, Cortland Sutton is like, okay. well over $20 million. And you have great players at the safety position because it's more replaceable and its overall impact on winning is just not as high unless the guy is a freak. So that's what you need. Evan Chris Trapasso has Jaylon Husky from Maryland, his safety three and his average draft position is 238. Well, that's, that's Chris.

Chris, and he's, and I don't think he's thinking that Husky's going to be drafted super high. But that's why I like Chris is because, and he'll be wrong sometimes and he'll be right sometimes. There are guys that he, over the years, has liked or disliked way differently from the rest. And Mike Renner is another guy. I know he had Thetam and going to the Vikings.

But Mike Renner is another guy that over the years of PFF, he would let the data guide him and his instincts guide him. And sometimes he would be in a way different spot. And the best example of that recently is Tanner McKee. But Tanner McKee might end up being a good quarterback. I don't know. Like it sounds like they want, there was a report that they want like a second round pick or something for him,

I think recently. So they at least the Eagles are thinking highly about Tanner McKee. I like draft analysts who watch, that I know watch all the tape and I know form their own opinions and I've been doing it for a while and have a process and have a system for doing it. and can offer just different eyeballs on stuff. I think there is just a lot of follow the leader in that in that space. That's, I'm not accusing everyone.

If they have Dylan Thinem into the Vikings, it makes total sense. So I'm not saying everyone who had that is following the leader. It just, it, it's shown. It's like on paper. It's in the data that they do that, that that industry is a little bit of follow the leader. So I like when I know that someone can bring a lot of detail, with their own eyes, their own observations about a player, their own thoughts. And he might be completely wrong.

And that guy from Maryland might end up being horrible and he saw something that wasn't there. Or maybe there's a little more there and he's going under the radar because there's a lot of bigger names. Joe, Kenyon, Sadiq still seems like a fun idea to me. I've not moved off this as being a good idea. It is a little harder to justify price-wise, which is a main discussion we've been having. The thing about Sadiq is that the tight end in the NFL, when you can be a yak guy, a really effective yak guy, yards after catch, it might add more as like a slot kind of almost a Debo Samuel. If you watch this guy play, you'll kind of think of like Debo Samuel, just like shredding tackles and stuff.

He's super fast with the ball in his hands and his straight line speed. he can be more of a deep threat than we ever talk about with tight ends. I will admit, though, I'm kind of enthralled with the idea of like what the ceiling for Sadiq could potentially be. It's not the greatest team building idea long term. Now, someone has to take over for Hawkinson when he becomes a free agent and it might be good to get that started right now and use him as like a wide receiver three sometimes and rotate with Josh Oliver.

I kind of love that idea. and I think that the tight end were seeing a bit of a shift from maybe even five years ago on that tight end position with Colston Loveland, Sam LaPorta, Brock Bowers, some recent guys that have really crushed it

as more of wide receivers, basically. So I'm kind of interested in that. Even Kyle Pitts recently has emerged as being one of those guys. So I'm interested for that reason is, I mean, you could almost look at it. If you wanted to make a team building case, you could.

You could look at it. it like this. If Kenyon Sadiq was as good as what Colston Loveland did last year, and let's say that by year two, he's getting 65, 70 catches, yards after catch. He's more of an 11 yards per reception type of guy than one of the nine and a half yard per reception tight ends that we saw for a long time. You can really run a lot of your offense through him underneath. He breaks tackles, just all that sort of stuff, it could block a little bit. I mean, when we're just talking about how wide receivers cost $20 million for guys that aren't even that good, tight ends cost $20 million for guys that are the best.

Could it be money saving? I don't see that with a lot of tight ends, but there might be. I think that was actually a case that was made when they signed Hawkinson. Well, you're getting Hawkinson, who's a top tight end at the time versus somebody, that, you know, as a wide receiver, this is kind of just a guy. I mean, what's, what's an $11 million tight end? It's probably a pretty good one, but Jalen Naylor, who I think will be better, but 29 catches last year.

There might be something there. There's an argument there, I guess. Dustin said, amazing, the Cardinals are paying this freak $36 million to go away. Yeah, I mean, look, if you don't understand anything about the situation, that might be something you'd think, right? If you don't understand anything about where the Arizona Cardinals are, which why would you, right?

It's the Arizona Cardinals. There's no reason for anybody to understand the Arizona Cardinals. They haven't proven it. But if you do just a little bit of research on where they're at, that team is tanking. They are completely tearing it all down to the studs. They fired their coach. They sat Kyler on purpose.

so they would lose games last year with Jacoby percent. They went out and signed rather than even a Joe Flacco. They went and got Gardner Minshu clearly a backup quarterback who will get you a very high draft pick. They shredded money. They did not spend it all in free agency except for Tyler Algiers. Like, you know, number two running back. I think they got a lineman. Their whole, I was following their media.

because of Kyler and their whole thing was like, are they going to do anything? They haven't really done anything. So they're in a very different spot. And if Kyler Murray was their quarterback and they kept Jonathan Gannon and they won seven games with this horror show of a team, what good would that do them in a division

with three Super Bowl contenders? So once you understand the context, then you understand why it's better for them not to have Kyler Murray. Plus the relationship had soured. Once you bench a player on purpose to try to lose games, it doesn't go well for you with your relationship building. And when you fire the coach, who the quarterback had a really good relationship with. So if you understand absolutely nothing about this situation, then you would say, why they got rid of this freak.

But if you look into it, you can see exactly why that happened. Stephen, no player will be an all pro in their first year, but almost every team will draft. It's Harrison Smith. if they know where they'll be in five years. Well, every, I'm not exactly sure I fully get the comment, but if you knew someone was going to be Harrison Smith, you would draft them in the top five. It's all about odds with someone like Dylan Thineman.

What are the odds? And I don't know this. They have to ask, this is a question. This is not a statement. It's a question. What are the odds that Dylan Thineman becomes as good as Harrison Smith? I think the odds that anyone becomes as good as Harrison Smith. one becomes as good as Harrison Smith are very low.

But maybe what are the odds that he becomes as good as Xavier McKinney is the example because he's in the NFC North, but how about Brian Branch? What are the odds that he becomes Brian Branch? I think decent. I think decent. That might even be a good comparison except for he's a little more athletic, but Brian Branch, very instinctual player, plays in the box. But if, but Brian Branch wasn't a first round draft pick.

I mean, Xavier McKinney, like that's a good player. how much was he paid, you know, a decent amount, but not a ton in comparison to other positions. Can you find him? Well, that guy was in free agency, so I'm going to say yes. I mean, there were good safeties, Jalen Hawkins, Jaquan Brisker, who were paid $6 million in free agency. Those are starters. Those are thousand snap players. And you're getting them.

They're not, they're not Harrison Smith, and they're not Xavier McKinney and they're not at that level. but there's probably what four guys who are at that level so if he's the next level down I don't know that it's worth the 18th overall pick if he's the next level down from a derwin james from a Kyle Hamilton from a harrison smith because there's a lot of those next level down guys and the panthers got trevon morrig the colts got cambine him who i think was a was a i'll call it like a third tier because the first tier is harrison smith and troy palomalu and the second tier I know, Paul Mowel is not in the league anymore, but that level of player. The Derwin James, the Kyle Hamilton, the best, best, best, best.

The second tier is your Xavier McKinney, Javan Holland, like those guys who've gotten paid a good amount of money. Buda Baker is probably in that. Okay. Like, that's worth signing, but you can even find those guys in free agency. And then the next level down, there's a ton of them. The next level down, the guy who gets paid between $10 and $15 million and is a needle mover, but is not an all pro.

There's a lot. And if that's what Thineman becomes, it's not worth a first round draft pick because you can get that in the second or third round. That's the whole point of the discussion. He might be. He definitely might be. And it fills a need. If you give me the choice, though, I'd rather have Avian Terrell because it's very hard to find a corner who can lock people up. And you have to pay a lot for guys that are just good, like Byron Murphy Jr.

Or Chavarius Ward, just good. They make a lot of money. and I would especially go edge or wide receiver because now the best of the best, it's not just the best of the best, it's even just good, are making $20 plus million. So Skull Shadow, I hope Rob doesn't pick guys that have a high, floor, low ceiling that can play right away. Maybe all the holes everywhere could create the goal to get roster fillers and development players, best player available only. For Rob Brzezinski, I mean, he's a guy that's going to be here long term.

so, you know, I think that he's going to think more long-term about their draft pick, which might be a reason not to take a safety there. Evan, Lee Hunter has a 75 PFF true pass set grade, so it seems like he has some pass rush upside, not just a run stuffing DT. Miller is about the same. You're making exactly my case for why you would take those guys in the second round easily over Caden McDonnell in the first because they do, right? in their in their profiles they have some potential that they could be guys with some pass

rush upside that get 30 pressures a year or something like that. McDonald just doesn't show that anywhere. And he is a dominant in the run force, but he would have to be like the premier dominant run force in the entire league for that to be worth it because there's so many guys who could do that. Luke, what are the chances that James Pierre becomes the next Eric Wilson? Roger's type signing. I'm trying to square his 86.8 pf f grade second among corners with only 377 snaps. Yeah, I mean, he was only targeted 30 times. Put it this way. Once upon a time,

there was a small sample Cam Dantzler thing that was like, man, you know, is quarterback rating against or whatever it might be was through the roof and he's the next Xavier Rose, et cetera, and it's not always the case. Corners are very hard to pin down for that. If I had to take a guess at what James Pierre is. It's somebody who's developed over a long period of time, knowing that Brian Flores wanted him here, knowing that the Vikings hired a coach from Pittsburgh who wanted him here, Flores was familiar with him.

I'm guessing the guy is very smart. I have not met him yet, but I just would take a very strong guess that James Pierre is a really sharp, high IQ player. And if you play it, and this is why Fabian Moreau kept showing up. We're like, really Fabian Roe huh but why because the guy had been around he gets it this guy's going to get the

defense if at the corner position if you're smart enough and knowledgeable enough about football to handle what Flores is putting out there that's why Stefan Gilmore could come in to be really good I think you can be you can be good yeah but in terms of like what the guy's done in his history I mean he's a little older than Isaiah Rogers and Isaiah Rogers also had this little thing where he missed an entire season due to a gambling related suspension, which hurt his stock in the NFL a little bit and was one of the reasons he didn't get an opportunity, I think, at least missing an entire year, didn't get an opportunity as a full-time starter. As far as I know, that's not the issue with James Pierre.

He was undrafted. He's a player that what it feels like to me, and I haven't seen him. I haven't seen him in OTAs. And one is to not make too much of a big thing of the PFF. grade in 30 targets against. I mean, that's clearly he played great, but that's a very, very small sample size to deal with. It means something is there,

but it wouldn't mean, hey, if he played a thousand, it was targeted 75 times, he's going to be the second best corner in the NFL. So that needs to be factored for. My guess is that he can totally play in this system competently and be effective at times, but there's probably limitations. That's not knowing a lot about his game

because there's not a lot to work with. with there for sample size, but they brought him in for a reason with familiarity. It means something is for sure there. It means he can handle the workload of the system. It's just anyone who has been a backup for their entire career, there's probably limited upside to that. Bradley, if we were to draft Sadiq and he lights it up, could we trade Hawkinson at the deadline?

Not if you're winning. If you're winning, you just want to keep winning and then get your, well, you actually won't get a comp pick for Hawkinson because they redid his deal, but you get the, you'll just have Sadiq be your long-term option if that's case. Now, if you're terrible, then yeah. If you're two and five, then sure, then you're trading it. But not, not unless you're in that sort of position. And we don't see the Vikings ever sell it. We're just period, really, at the deadline when they've had bad years. I was going to go with Jack here.

Pierre played a lot in the nickel position. He was a dog. They have three starting corners. It's just very, like, I get you. He played extremely well. And I've looked at the numbers. They're phenomenal from last year. And maybe he is a guy that they could put in the nickel and use because they think they're not going to have Harrison Smith and that kind of thing.

Or maybe move Byron Murphy into the nickel at times. or he could play, whatever it might be. The upside is probably not that the guy is a superstar, but would I be surprised if he fits and is like an Eric Wilson and suddenly he's better than anybody thought, no, I wouldn't. I would never be surprised. I'm just saying that using those numbers as an expectation is like, it's very tricky with corners.

Full seasons are tricky with corners. You could see Byron Murphy in 2024 versus 2025, much less 32 targets. that's all I'm saying. But would I be surprised if he's like an Eric Wilson where he was a backup for a long time and then comes in and plays a role? Absolutely not because Flores is great at that. Stephen Murray threw the ball a lot to McBride,

so it's possible Hawkinson has a great fantasy football year. Could see that. He does like the underneath stuff, the tight end, absolutely. But also I think he threw to McBride because they had no wide receivers. watching back that tape. Michael Wilson's okay. I don't think he's great. I think he's okay.

And Marvin Harrison Jr. is just a nightmare. So he had to kind of throw to Trey McBride as his number one wide receiver. Zachary, what do you think about Eli Stowers? I think that I'm always a little bit hesitant if someone is that freaky of an athlete and didn't produce. Because, yeah, Danielle Hunter did it. but you just don't see it a lot. If you are this amazing of an athlete and you didn't put up huge numbers, I'm a little concern because you should dominate college football.

And he didn't really dominate college football. He had 62 catches for 769 yards last year. That's fine. That's good. But not dominant. And his blocking stuff is horrific. You know who he reminds me of is like a Mike Gisicki. Remember him?

Is he still around? Mike Gisicki from Penn State. It was, oh, yeah, well, he's, you know, he's pretty tough. It's 230 pounds, but it's fine. It's, in the NFL, you got to be able to block at the tight end position. You usually can't just stick that guy out at slot-wide receiver. And if that's the case, just get a slot-wide receiver. They usually have to be able to block.

So I wouldn't take him high because I think he's probably just a receiver, and I'm not sure he's going to be a great one. Skull, Shadow, how many draft A. trades by Brazinski. I say what the over under should be 0.5. I'll say more. I'll say higher. Over.

I'll go over. I'll say there's more than that. He does have a lot of, a lot, a lot of connections in the NFL that they can make trades. And I think he's been at the head of that before of like making phone calls to make trades. Steven, imagine bringing in Calais, Campbell, Cam Jordan, and Smith returns. Imagine your defense is going to bed at 8.30 at that.

point. Derek says chasing positional value over taking the best players, how teams, how the Jets remain the Jets. The Jets are the only teams doing that? I don't agree with that at all, man. Chasing needs is how you end up drafting Garrett Bradbury and not Jeffrey Simmons or drafting Isaiah or no, Irv Smith Jr. and not A.J. Brown. Chasing needs to me is, okay, yeah, look, if Dylan Thineman is the apple,

absolute best football player by far at number 18. Nobody else is close. All right. Okay. If you think he's going to be Kyle Hamilton or Buda Baker or Tyron Matthew or something like that, great. Then do it. And that guy will be awesome.

And he'll be a nightmare for other teams to face. But if he's not that, then it's not worth it. That's just, that is just clear. He has to reach that bar of being great to be worth the 18th overall pick. that just in terms of your value like that that matters and even if you drafted a number three wide receiver who was just good it's it's just as valuable or i mean actually it's harder to replace a number three wide receiver is harder to replace than a starting safety and there's evidence right there in jalen nailer for how much the raiders had to pay to get it so it matters

Paul, this is a good idea. Do a mock where you draft all 32. That's a good idea. We'll do that. We'll definitely do that. We'll have time. Chris and I'll do that sometime. All right.

I think it's time for Stephen the Fandul question of the day. Thanks for asking. The Fandul question of the day, shout out to our sponsor Fandul, is Ty Simpson has moved up to plus 4,000 to go number two overall. Where do you think Ty Simpson goes? That was the question of the day. So let me get, let's get a draft sim going. What do we want for our parameters for the draft sim?

Well, since I've spent this entire time talking about how it's questionable to take Dylan Thinam in, we can't do a draft sim that takes Dylan Thineman. Oh, I already said, let me start it. Let me start a new one. What do we want to do for our draft sim today? Do we want to trade, we want to do a little trade down? Let's go with a random big board here. Well, let's go consensus board.

let's move up some positional value let's move up a little draft for need why don't we get into the fourth round here you want to go four rounds let's go four rounds a little bit more randomness and let's see what we end up with what do we want to do here let's get to 18 how did things play out at the top always like to look at that fernando mendoza shocking number one pick arval rice goes to the jets i mean would it be that it's the jets would it be that crazy the Jets drafted Ty Simpson number two. I mean, would anyone be shocked if they did something absolutely crazy? I wouldn't.

Sunny Stiles to the Cardinals, David Bailey. I think David Bailey's going to go number two. He goes to Tennessee. Washington ends up with Jeremiah Love at number seven. I keep thinking about where would you, where would it make sense to do the Jeremiah Love trade? My answer is probably like 13. And I know that that's too far down for those who,

really want him. But when I was looking at the draft value charts, that's the best I could do was 13. Otherwise, you're giving up some serious draft capital to move all the way up to get Jeremiah Love. Mansour Delane, who's become a huge guy? Wow, this one has Keldrick Falk going super high. Caleb Downs to Cincinnati at 10. So there's a little bit of mixing and match in here.

Not the exact same draft sim we've seen every time at the top. Okay. So here's one on the board that's kind of interesting. interesting, Spencer Fanon, who is a top 15. This is, okay, so this is the thing, right? If the Vikings get to a position like this and they have an extended Brian O'Neill, it would be the least fun draft night for them, for us to talk about for fans to take Spencer Fanon, it would also make a heck of a lot of sense.

If they were planning on letting Brian O'Neill go after 2026, which also, makes some sense based on his pay and based on his age and some recent injury history, as much as he's a great player and a captain for them and you want him to be a Viking for life, this is what we're talking about with drafting for need versus drafting the best player available. Spencer Fanon, man, that would be, oh, a right tackle who's been really, really good. It actually, it's pretty justifiable. We've got Kenyon Sadiq here. um, Caden Proctor,

Aviont Terrell, Peter Woods, Emmanuel McGill-Woran. I think what this means is, if Spencer Fanon were to get here, there's going to be some teams calling, so we should look to trade down. Okay,

the commanders are the only team that are making us an offer. So let's figure this out. Let's go, let's try to make a trade with Cleveland for their 24th pick. They're just totally not interested in the PFF simulator. Dang. Cleveland, not interested at all.

All right. Are we getting locked in here? Okay, Buffalo is a little interested. No, they're not interested either. Okay, we're locked into 18. So what do we do? Do we take the best tackle? Do we take Kenyon Sadiq?

Do we take Thinaman? Well, we're not doing Thinnaman because of the, you know, the whole thing we've talked about here. Do you just take Avion Terrell because he is both a need and a key position? Maybe I'll do that. I mean, tackle is pretty compelling. it really depends on whether they have something worked out with Brian O'Neill or not. If you've signed O'Neill to a three or four-year extension, well, then you're not taking a tackle.

But if you haven't, then the guy makes complete sense to do that, even if he's not going to play in his first year. But what are the chances that he actually does? That's another thing about drafting something like this. In this instance, I would take Spencer Fanon, and I'm going to do it. I would apologize to nobody. I would take the best tackle prospect, and I would apologize to nobody because, one, if you don't have him extended, that is an important stipulation. If he, because one, if he gets hurt, you have Ryan, you know,

whatever, what is his name? Van der Mark, Ryan Van der Mark, who they just picked up. Okay. That's nice. That's a backup. So you could put in Spencer Fanon, even like if it was a right guard injury. If Will Fries got hurt, you know, maybe you're putting him in at guard because he's the most talented player.

And how often does someone get hurt on the offensive line in the NFL all the time? And then how much time does it take to develop somebody in the NFL several years at offensive line? This is the smartest long-term play, if that were to play out that way. Second round, we've got on the board Christian Miller like that as an option. Anthony Hill Jr., interesting, a linebacker who is pretty highly thought of by a lot of the draft analysts. the this board doesn't have him being that high but a lot of people like anthony hill chris bell wide

receiver out of louisville i don't know a lot about chris bell it's got good numbers chris brazzle we've talked about ooh d angelo ponds the corner in the second round i kind of like that idea second round corner miller the run stuffing defensive tackle with upside wide receiver three to potentially be number two or a really good corner i'm going to go corner i'm going to take de angelo ponds here I like that position. Now we're in the third round. Camari Ramsey safety.

This is another good safety prospect. This is what I mean. We're in the third round. We've got good safety prospects up here. And, oh, Elijah Surratt, Sam Heck the Center, Elijah Surratt, Bryce Lance. Also, Jalen Kilgawar, who is thought of, I think for some is a safety.

Skyler Bell at wide receiver. Oh, I'm intrigued by so many of these guys. Let's go Elijah Surat, get our, wide receiver. And then for the number 97 pick, got an edge rusher in J. Sean Barham, who I like, Jonah Coleman, the running back. Malik Muhammad, I really like Logan Jones and Jake Slaughter are still here as centers. I'm intrigued by Logan Jones. I'm also interested in Jonah Coleman. I don't know that they can leave the second day without a running back, but I kind of am looking at the center and corner, well, we already drafted a corner, but I'm kind of looking at center is how do you pass

that up? Maybe one of them will drop into the fourth. Let's go Jonah Coleman. So our draft here ends up being a top right tackle prospect in Spencer Fanow, which will get booed. But I don't care. It's a super, super valuable position that takes development. So I'm apologizing to nobody. Then DeAngelo Pons who, you know, look, who, who among us does not see Antoine Winfield, senior, Elijah Sarat, a wide receiver that I like out of Indiana and Jonah Coleman running back. So that's what we end up with three players on offense for a team that needs all defense. Well, what do we think? Can't pass on Pons.

I agree with that. You're booing Dumer K.O. I know. No one, no one would like it. And then one year from now, it's, it's, it's. here, let's all remember draft night. Purple Insider when the, uh, Falcons drafted Michael Penix. Everybody said, what in the world?

How could they drafted Penix? And I know that it hasn't worked out exactly because he had this injury. But what are they doing? What are they doing? And my thought was, well, one year from now, this might look great, actually. And it kind of did with the way things worked out for Kirk. This is with the stipulation that they don't extend Brian O'Neill. If they extend Brian O'Neill, it's a different conversation.

Then I'm not doing it. Then I'm trading back. but PFF wouldn't let me trade back with anyone, so then we didn't do it. One year from now, if Brian O'Neill was leaving in free agency and someone was giving him $30 million after a good season and the Vikings had a first round pick to slide into his spot who was making $5 million and was highly talented like Fano is, then you be going, oh, good job. Great job, Vikings.

Now we have our, but what you want, you have to, admit that what a lot of people want out of free agency and the draft is excitement. It would not give you a lot of excitement. From a team building perspective, it's good. Those tackles are making $30 million. From a team building perspective, it's right. From an excitement perspective, it's not. Stephen Anthony Hill Jr.

Right there in the second, they brought him in for a 30 visit. It doesn't necessarily mean anything with the 30 visits. They have tended to draft players that they've brought in. Christian Miller is there. Yep, I mean, that Miller versus Pons, you know, maybe I would take, I mean, depending on the situation, depending on what, you know, they thought of Pons or Miller. I like the idea of, I've always liked Christian Miller as a draft pick. He was my first mock draft sim guy and I got crushed for it by you guys.

Taylor, I don't know if Sadiq would be good for positional value. It's good for positional value if he, is truly a wide receiver type weapon. If he doesn't reach that, then it's not. But if he does, then you're getting a lot of production. Then you're getting a thousand yards and 80 catches for half the price. I mean, George Kittle is paid as much as I mentioned like Jacoby Myers. George Kittle, I think is paid less than like a Cortland Sutton who's just okay.

Mike Washington, I'm interested in Ty Simpson 16, you think is where he's going to go. Do I prefer Washington or Jonah Coleman? this is a hard thing because when I watch them play, I prefer Jonah Coleman. If you didn't know anything about their 40s and I just watched them play, I think Jonah Coleman's a better player. But Washington's explosiveness is hard to deny. I'm not sure who could have been looking to trade up to get a tackle. I think it would probably be, would it be Cleveland if they draft Carnal Tate,

that they'd be looking to trade up for a tackle? Probably. So there you go. It's, uh, it wasn't. the sexiest draft sim anyone's ever done. But that would really fit with the theme. That's what I was trying to do. I was trying to fit with the theme.

Okay. Tomorrow, the plan is to have Mike Sando on the show from the athletic to talk about what executives have said about Kyler Murray. And that should be very interesting. That's the plan is to record with him tomorrow. So that will debut. And then it's off to the owner's meetings in Phoenix where I saw today. I think it was like 97 today.

I don't know if I need that. It was, it was like 68 in Minnesota yesterday. That was perfect. That was wonderful. I don't know if I'm ready for 97 because it was 40 today. 40 to 97 is pretty stressful on the body. But we'll be there. KOC's going to talk at very early in the morning, as always at the owner's meetings.

And then Dane Mizatani and I will have an afternoon podcast. We are expected to have more than just the sit down. so we'll have an afternoon podcast that will run live next Monday. So there's a lot coming up on the show. And then it's like hardcore pedal to the metal mock drafts every day. We'll see if there's a trade or something else that goes down. If there's any discussions there at the owner's meetings about a Grinard trade with somebody. And we'll go from there and we'll keep rolling the guests in.

And then draft night. I know some people have already asked like the draft night, we're doing it again. I will be doing all the coverage for night one and night two is the plan. I think it was, was it last year I didn't do night two because they didn't have a pick. Was it last year? I didn't do that. But the plan is now they have picks. So we'll do the whole second round as well.

But thanks everybody for jumping in and watching slash listening. And we will definitely catch you all again very soon. So hopefully enjoy the show. Football.