Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - Will Cousins be better in Year 2 of KOC's system? Derrik Klassen says yes, Aaron Schatz is skeptical

Episode Date: August 9, 2023

Matthew Coller is joined by Derrik Klassen of Bleacher Report and Reception Perception to talk about his data after tracking every throw of Kirk Cousins's 2022 season. Why he believes Cousins was more impressive last year than before and could even improve this season under Kevin O'Connell. Then we talk with analytics legend Aaron Schatz who has a less rosy view of the Vikings' 2023 season by looking at the underlying analytics numbers. He thinks the team will regress significantly unless Brian Flores bails them out. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Hey everybody, welcome to another episode of Purple Insider. Matthew Collar here and joining me, well now we're remote again. The last time Derek Klassen was on the show was actually in person for the first time at the Combine. But since then, you have traveled back home and you have done absolutely nothing but track quarterback data since then and grow a disturbing mustache. So how are you, Derek? Are you okay? Like, is this a signal for help, what you're doing there with your face? Yeah, the mustache might be like a product of just being stuck

in the quarterback charting minds. Like, I just can't. It's like, you know how coaches, you can tell when the season is not going great by like week nine and they're not shaving? That's a little bit where we've arrived this offseason so is this a situation where you let it all grow and only the mustache came through or can you do like a beard thing because you got a little on the bottom there no the rest so like my chin will grow and like my mustache will grow the everything else i it doesn't it it might take like a year to get

anything that looks halfway like a beard and i feel like that's not a worthwhile uh worthwhile timeline you seem like a random hair guy like it would just be a bunch of random hairs that is what happens what it looks like yes so what happens to me is a permanent five o'clock shadow right right now i have not shaved in like four days and it looks like i haven't shaved since this morning if i was a normal person like in the afternoon but that's just it stays there it doesn't go any farther and if i let it grow it will just not move i don't know why so anyway we're weird uh but we have quarterbacks to talk about so what you did here for reception perception, people who have listened to the show for a long time,

know Matt Harmon, reception perception, maybe the original person who was shouting from the hilltops about Stefan Diggs' greatness. So they might know the website from there. But now reception perception also includes your quarterback tracking, which includes Kirk Cousins for this year. And I am going to challenge you right off the bat, Derek, you have a job here. You need to say something that hasn't been said

before about Kirk Cousins based on watching all that tape, because you didn't watch it for nothing. You watched it to make some sort of new statement, new discovery, new belief about a quarterback that everybody feels like they know so well so the floor is yours tell us what's new I think I think where I've arrived with Kirk is that he so for years he's been thrown into this like Shanahan play action merchant all that sort of thing and I think for a large chunk of his career that was true um especially like going back to Washington like everything he did was basically shot player he's checking it down like that was his whole mo I think we've gotten to the point where Kirk has played so many games he's been in so many different systems he's played in

so many different offenses and he's kind of grown as a player that really he's one of the better pure drop back throwers in the league at this point like he's still he probably do want to do as much play action as you can with him because he's obviously still really good at that he has the arm talent he's not afraid to stick in there all that sort of stuff but like the more I charted in the more I watched him the more I appreciated like what he could do just going one two three four five on his drop back getting to a backside dig all the stuff that we thought like Matthew Stafford was incredible at when they won the Super Bowl Kirk is a lot better at that now than I think he was really even two years ago. I really think in a lot of ways he's kind of better in being able to

do a little bit more for the offense, open up some more things. He still has some particular play style issues that limit him from being elite, but just in terms of being able to open up the schematics and let the offense do kind of anything it wants, I actually think he's really grown in that area. So that would probably be the one thing that I say is different about Kirk now than, again, like I said, even two years ago. No, you're right. I mean, because he did not have a ton of success in 2018 when John DeFilippo tried to open up that offense. I will say that that was in part hijacked by the head coach. And at the beginning of that season, it was working out for them to open it up. And then Mike Zimmer wanted them to run more. And then it just became like kind of a calamity. But with cousins last year, I remember in, it was either mini camp or training camp,

Kevin O'Connell saying, look, you have to stick onto these reads a little bit longer, a little bit longer because they will eventually come open. And it is an offense that tries to run a lot of routes down the field and, and looks for big chunk plays. And with Kirk, you know, the, the reputation about being a check down guy, which is funny because his check down ratio isn't any different, but sometimes it just comes at the worst times. And yeah, there's just certain plays that you remember. Right. Yeah. And it wasn't not even just a playoff game, but there was one in a key game against green Bay on a similar type of

situation where he checked to the fullback on like third and long. So it's one of those things where those stick out in your mind, but he doesn't actually do it more than anyone else. But, but I think that throughout the season, it seemed like he gained more momentum and more comfort at staying in the pocket with those throws because the first half of the season was pretty shaky for him and getting Kevin O'Connell's offense. I wonder if you kind of observed the same thing as you watch back all the tape. I agree and like I think Kirk in general has gotten better about playing under pressure in in his particular way like he's not a guy who's going

to get outside the pocket he's not going to create he's not even going to be a guy who like does some of the weird in pocket problem solving stuff like Matthew Stafford will do just like a weird side arm who knows like what he's doing he'll like hop step do some some crazy stuff Kirk doesn't necessarily do that but I think he's done a really good job of kind of like you said especially over the second half of last season of like okay I'm gonna trust the offense I know I'm gonna get hit here I know I'm going to the ground but I know Justin Jefferson or TJ Hawkinson or whoever is gonna be open I'm gonna stick here and I'm gonna throw it and like I think that like especially if you're gonna be in this kind of offense where you are

throwing it a little bit more vertical and stuff like that, you have to have that kind of resiliency. And I think Kirk in general, like the past two, three years has gotten better at that overall. And then, like you said, the more he got comfortable in this offense, it was like, he'll die in there if that's what it takes to get this corner out off or something. So like I said, there are certain things between, between you know him opening up the drop back game like this resiliency that he kind of showed over the second half of last season where like there are certain parts of Cousins's game that I kind of appreciated more the more I sat down and watched him oh and he almost did die in there on multiple occasions uh I mean Jonathan Allen

committed a murder in washington and you know people relived that uh during the quarterback documentary but it was incredible how many times he took hits and got back up and kept playing throughout last year and i think that a major part of that of course is the interior the offensive line but it's also what he's being asked to do now i i've always thought there was a little bit of year two in the system mythology. Like, I don't know that that actually is statistically backed up. Everything changes so much from year to year that when I hear, well, you know, he's going to be better in this next year, the system's like, well, I don't know, like, how's the schedule? Who are you playing?

How are the injuries around you? Like, is that actually true? but I do think that there was such a large learning curve overall at the beginning of last season that there might actually be truth to that with this particular offense also the addition of Jordan Addison who has fresh and youthful legs that run fast and downfield as opposed to Adam Thielen I think that's got to be a factor as well. I think 100%. Like that to me, I mean, I think Kirk has always been a guy who really has gotten better over the past five years or so. Like I think he's actually a much different player than he was when he first got to Minnesota.

And so I do think him getting extra time in the system is really going to help. But I think like you mentioned, getting Addison is really kind of what I think is going to supercharge this offense. Because I think if you kind of stick him almost directly into the Adam Thielen role, he's going to be able to run a lot of the same routes. I think Thielen, even with what he was last season where he didn't have the same juice, probably a little bit better in terms of being able to play physically. Like, you know, with physicality and like box people out a little bit better than Addison is ever going to be. But just in terms of running a lot of those routes over the middle, being able to get some separation like Kirk will throw a dig, man. Like that's not going to that's there's no concerns about him doing that.

And I think Addison is like the perfect type of receiver to consistently create separation in that area. So I'm really excited about what those two are going to do, because like Kirk is a guy who, if you're open, he's going to put it on you at a very, very high rate. He was one of the best guys in terms of like, if it's open, he's hitting it almost every time. And I think Addison is going to create more separation than everybody except for Justin Jefferson had last year. So I'm really excited what the offense is going to look like. And even just in terms of, you know, guys learning the offense, Hawkinson is going to be in his like, I mean, he only had half a season. He didn't even get like the offseason with the team last time. So I'm really excited for what for what they can look like.

OK, so I was talking to Aaron Schatz the other day, your friend from Football Outsiders, and he was not as high on this offense, statistically speaking, because when you look at Kirk Cousins stats from last year, his QBR, his yards per attempt, a lot of things, not the best of his career. In fact, maybe one of the worst. So this is kind of a weird conversation. It's like he won a lot of games, but a lot of them are weird, but there was stuff that was better on tape, but there's not stuff that's better statistically. And like, how do we figure out how we're supposed to feel out of all this when we're figuring out? Because this to me is the determining factor of the whole season the defense will have its problems because of the personnel but whether this season becomes a success an nfc north championship it

pretty much rests on how good this offense can really be i think kind of like you mentioned i think he was a lot better than his stats indicate I mean like I said on film I think that was probably to me the best year of his career just in terms of everything he was able to do opening up the drop back game and stuff it's just that for half the season he had one good player he was throwing to and then over the second half of the season like TJ Hawkinson is good but he's not Travis Kelsey he's not George Kittle he's not even like you know Kyle Pitts or Dallas Goddard like he's not quite even in that's not George Kittle. He's not even like, you know, Kyle Pitts or Dallas Goddard. Like he's not quite even in that elite tier. And so to me, I think it's like I think now that he's going to have a guy like Jordan Addison, he's going to have more time in the system.

I think this is going to be a little bit more all systems go. The only concern I really have is not so much the running back situation with, you know, Dalton Cook leaving and all that stuff. To me, it's just I really, really don't trust the interior of this offensive line and it's good that Kirk has gotten a lot better about like I'm gonna sit in here and take a shot anyway and like that helps mitigate it a little bit but those three I just don't really trust whatsoever it's good it's really good that the tackles are are pretty good you know one of the better duos in the league for sure but I think if anything that's going to sink the offense is going's going to be the interior trio, not any like Kirk regresses or, you know, Addison isn't as good as we think. I think if anything, it's just going to be the interior implodes, which is entirely possible.

Definitely possible. And, you know, last year he did have good numbers under pressure and that's a thing that is super random. I mean, throughout his career, sometimes he's been one of the better and sometimes he's been one of the worst quarterbacks under pressure. It's small sample size, but also like not all pressure is the same and it's ups and downs. So last year, weirdly,

even though he did get just beat into the ground, he actually did okay with a lot of those and the Washington play is one of those where he made a great play and took a hit, but it's no guarantee he could do that again. with a lot of those in the Washington play is one of those where he made a great play and took a hit, but it's no guarantee he could do that again. Now, of course, everything in the Kirk conversation relates to the future. And you are talking about a team that decided not to give Kirk Cousins a contract extension, but that isn't entirely off the table that they could do that in the future. How do you think they should handle this? And also I'm curious about your observation from Kevin O'Connell's offense. Like, would this be difficult

for a young quarterback to step into? So I guess both parts of that. Um, I'll start with what they should do. I think last year I kind of wanted them to draft the quarterback. Um, that is all, that's like trickier to say now. Cause like I said, I do think Kirk just had the best year of his career so maybe he really is at the point where like this can be good enough for them um but I think they're probably at the point where like Kirk is even though I think he had the best year of his career he's probably still what quarterback 12 like and that's like enough but if you're kind of hovering in that almost area and he's like 30 whatever he is it might just be time to move on if you can if you can trade up and get a guy but that's always hard so like that's kind of why they've been stuck in this situation for three years but

um I don't know I think if he can continue to play the way he did last year just ride him out until his arm dies like because I really think he's playing at a good enough level and it's going to be hard to move on um and then to your other point about how difficult is the offense I think if they try to run it the way that they're currently constructed I think it would be really hard because I think a lot of what they do in the drop back game is is like I said like they are throwing a lot past like the 12 yard marker in the drop back game that's really really hard if you're a rookie quarterback it's also like this rushing offense wasn't very good and And with the interior, I don't think it's going to be much better. And like the running back talent is not that good. It's not like they have exceptional

blocking tight ends. So I think if you have a really difficult dropback game the way that they do, and you're not really able to like shift a little bit more into like, we're going to be what the Falcons were last year, where we are just bludgeoning people on the ground and we can kind of cheat our play action game to like a 45% rate or whatever unless you can do that I don't think this structure of offense is that easy to just plug into as a rookie so I don't really think a rookie even if it's Drake May or Caleb Williams which doesn't seem very likely of course I don't think even those guys would be able to like immediately do what Kirk is doing.

Yeah. And I think that the thing with Kirk is that he has this remarkable way of always talking you into it. Just like, I mean, from Washington to talking the Vikings into it, to talking them into it again, to talking them into it. Right. I mean, and you're always feeling like, well,

if there was just a little bit more just that little bit more and then and it but the same problem always continues to persist which is that in certain situations there's just not an answer for kirk cousins to make a play no matter how great his supporting casts have been over the years and i always think if you're talking about the quality of the guards for an offense, that means that the rest of it must be really darn good. Because, I mean, you have the best receiver in the world, the first round draft pick, KJ Osborne's good, Hawkinson's good, the tackles are good.

And yet first round out, sort of same typical type of stuff for this team last year. And right now projected at eight and a half wins. I mean, I think that even though Kevin O'Connell's offense as it presently stands is very difficult, he has a former quarterback should be pretty malleable with this and should be able to make changes to his offense. And I think he's already doing that this off season to maybe take some of the pressure off of Kirk. They added a second tight end. They want to run bigger personnel more often to have kind of a counter punch to get more play action situations. So I think that having a quarterback as your coach makes it changes the formula for me a little bit like, yes, year one, day one, you can't say, Hey rookie, there it is. But I think that you can slowly

build upon that over the years. And probably as far as trying to chase an actual Superbowl, it's a better idea than hoping you can just finagle the roster around this very expensive quarterback again. I mean, they're going to have to at some point, right? Like this, this thing is not going to work. Um, especially kind of like you said like there always seems to be even though it feels like there's like Kirk is always good you're always like one half of a step off and like that's probably never going to change even if I think the offense is going to be better this year um but I don't like I do think that's a good point about having a guy like O'Connell or not even just a quarterback but like if you have a Shanahan or a McVay like if you have one of these elite offensive minds

they probably can shift the offense to be a little bit more rookie friendly or even not like this wasn't a rookie example but like everything that Mike McDaniel did for Tua really was like completely threw out what the Shanahan structure was or at least like the way it's presented usually it was like under center we're gonna run the ball everything is gonna be like off of these particular run looks and they were like nah screw it we're gonna get in the gun we're gonna RPO everything our run game is completely BS so I do think like O'Connell has shown that he is a good offensive mind to me it's more just like I think the way the offense is constructed right now would be really hard.

And until we see him do a little bit more shifting, do a little bit more changing, I'm just not 100% sold that he's like in that tier of offensive mind yet. So I think he could definitely do it. It's just I kind of want to see it. So I want to look at some of the other quarterbacks that you tracked for this year for reception perception. But what do you think? Good, bad, tracked for this year for reception perception but uh what do you think good bad mediocre vikings this year i mean just like what's your what's your general overall feel i definitely not winning as many games as last year i mean they won what 13 like that's just not they weren't a 13 win team and i don't think they got enough better to like get to that point because the thing is like we said this about the Bengals last year right where

it was like or yeah when the 2021 Bengals it was like ah they probably were better than they should have been they're not going to be that good but it turns out they have just a bunch of elite players the Vikings don't really have those they have one they have Justin Jefferson and that's great but that's probably not going to be enough to like counterweight a lot of the regression that they're going to have. But I think it's not like the division, there's no other juggernaut in the division. I think they should still be able to win a lot of their division games and get to like nine, 10 wins, be a wild card team, kind of the Kirk standard. Because I think the offense is going to be like kind of fighting into that, like they're not going to be elite, but I think they could be like an eight to 12 offense, which is going to be like kind of fighting into that like they're not going to be elite but i think

they could be like an 8 to 12 offense which is going to be plenty enough um my concern is just the defense like i i love brian flores i really do i think he's an incredible mind they don't have players man like they got nobody at any level uh i mean i've been seeing reports you guys are putting an undrafted uh linebacker on the first team now. Like that's when that's where you're at. The defense is probably not going to be very good. So I think maybe Flores can can make the talent a little bit better than it is. But like on paper, this is like the 30th defense in the league, probably. And he's going to get them to 25th. So like that's my concern.

Unless the defense just way over performs. I don't think they can get to like 13 wins or whatever again so i think if they can get to 9 10 wins wild card offense looks better you pray you reload the defense again and try it again in 2024 i think what it really hinges on is two young cornerbacks who are going to start and if they are better than you think because there's no sample on them then we could be like oh this defense was a lot better than you think, because there's no sample on them, then we could be like, oh, this defense was a lot better than we expected. And by a lot better, I mean like 16th. But if those two corners falter or get hurt or whatever, there's nothing.

I mean, it's just. And you're going to find out fast. Brian Flores, they're playing man coverage. They are blitzing. You are going to be on an island. We're going to know by week three if those dudes can play. Right, right. And I think that, you know, they We're going to know by week three if those dudes can play. Right, right.

And I think that they could come out quick. But yeah, in week two, they play Philadelphia. So it's going to be – There you go. We're going to find out. And the other thing is I don't really know how the run stopping is going to be. You mentioned the undrafted free agent, Ivan Pace. It's been an energetic camp under Brian Flores. I see why he was a head coach.

I think he's a very smart defensive mind and love the mentality. Like if you're going to go down swinging, go down swinging, like send, send blitz. Don't just sit back like last year and let bad defensive personnel just get slaughtered, like try to do something. So I respect that, but I agree that the skeptic skepticism is reasonable. Uh, with the other quarterbacks that you tracked, I'm just going to throw a blazing hot takeout and see if you like it. How's that from what you watched? And I also think like you

got an illness from having watched this much tape of all these quarterbacks. You know how you see people around draft time. Oh, I've watched every snap. You're like, nah, I don't think you did. I don't think you did, but you had to. This was like your job. So anyway, Trevor Lawrence top five quarterback by the end of 2023 yes or no it's so hard because the the only problem with this take is that it is in direct conflict with

my lamar jackson is still a top five quarterback take and like that like they're kind of in contention or then i have to go to my other hot take which is like maybe joe burrow is still a top five quarterback take. And like that, like they're kind of in contention. Or then I have to go to my other hot take, which is like maybe Joe Burrow is in the top five quarterback. This is where you get with the like, is Trevor Lawrence top five? Because to me, there are like six top five quarterbacks. But I don't know. I think, I think, you know what?

Yeah, we're going to go with. Yeah, we're going to say yes. Like somebody is going to like fall out of the top five a little bit and I think Trevor's gonna be able to get up there because I think what he was able to do what him and Doug Peterson I should add like Peterson is an unbelievable play caller what they were able to do with like the 20th offensive line in the league one good pass catcher who can only play from the slot by the way and Christian Kirk what they were able to do last year and like eventually get to a top 10 offense by the end I think when you add a legitimate like number one X receiver like Calvin Ridley to the offense

I think they're going to be cooking so well and the other thing is they're going to be throwing the ball a lot because that defense still sucks they were bad last year and they didn't add anything so like we're going to get to see a lot of Trevor Lawrence being able to prove that he's one of the best in the league. I think really, if anything, like if he, he has probably like three or four sprays a game where it's like,

all right, if you can reign those in a little bit and make those easier to catch, you are like firmly an elite quarterback. So if he does that, and I think Ridley will make that a little bit easier. He's there. And I think that there is something to year three with great quarterbacks that, you know, year one always stinks. Then year two is sort of like, do they show signs or not? And year three is all right, you're a guy now. And this is when your team can spend a lot of money. You've probably fired your horrible coach before.

It happens kind of a lot like this way with Trevor Lawrence so it's got all the signs really like his skill set really like his toughness for what he went through with Urban Meyer if you had Urban Meyer and you didn't melt I mean that's I'm impressed and then so he came right that was really really something for him the thing I really don't think a lot of people understand like how bad the urban meyer thing really well i think we just see like oh you know it was a bad coach tough rookie year you know it's whatever he was legitimately the worst head coach of my lifetime like that's how bad that was so the fact that he came out of that alive and is already in contention for top five trevor's trevor's the dude he's the one all right how about this hot

take uh Dak Prescott uh NFC championship weekend quarterback in 2023 I think he's good enough we'll see if Mike McCarthy has has the juice um but I love Dak like Dak to me is still I know everybody is in on Jalen Hurts um and he great, but Dak to me is still the best quarterback in the NFC. Like I just, he's one of those, like I'm, I've seen so much quarterback play at this point that I'm very much like a purist in terms of like, can you do the drop back stuff? Can you play on time? Can you do all this certain stuff? Can you throw every kind of route? Can you run every kind of offense?

Dak is that guy. And he will throw the hell out of tight windows and he does it really well so Dak is just like he's my favorite kind of quarterback to watch and he does it at a really high level it's almost like Matt Ryan kind of had a lot of this um where he just it felt like he was doing things the right way all the time I just love watching that kind of player and I think now that he has Brandon cooks, hopefully Michael Gallup is a little bit healthier. I'm I'm feeling good about Dak. I just think their roster is so stacked. It might be top five,

top three roster, top to bottom in the NFL. I mean, Micah Parsons, CD land. I mean, they just got everything. And now a running back who isn't soul sucking to their offense,

as long as Tony Pollard stays healthy. I mean, I just think they're an excellent team. I totally agree with the, because McCarthy weird though, like when you look at his win loss record and I know what he's had, but it's still like, this guy's one of the greatest coaches of all time by the win loss record and Dallas under Jason Garrett with Dak Prescott and a good roster is,

you know, pretty bland, can't make the playoffs eight and eight. And then he comes in and they are a Superbowl contender heading into the playoffs a couple of years in a row. And yet we're still like Mike McCarthy. I don't know. So, and yet I think that's also justified. How about this for Gino Smith, Gino Smith facing Dak Prescott in the NFC championship. That's another T it's like Seattle is kind of low-key stacked all of a sudden as well, especially at wide receiver. How Jackson Smith Najigma ended up on this football team, I have no idea. But Geno just needs to sit back there and let it rip, it feels like,

with these wide receivers. I think their offense is going to be a flamethrower. Because Geno was already incredible last season. He's the most accurate quarterback I charted. offense is going to be a flamethrower um because Gino was already incredible last season like he's like just he's the most accurate quarterback I charted like he just his ball placement to literally every level is completely insane and I think he showed that he was a pretty good decision maker last year he has a little bit of the Dak Prescott problem where like he throws tight windows maybe a little too much and like is a little bit risky but like live by the sword

die by the sword and he's accurate accurate enough that, that it works. And they have obviously really talented receivers. And then funny enough, the only area Gino really struggled in my charting was in the one to 10 yard area over the middle. Well, guess what? That's exactly where Jackson Smith and Jigba is going to live. So they've kind of solved that problem. And then a big problem with the Seahawks offense last year was their running

game was they could get explosives. Like Ken Walker is if you give him a little bit of space, he's going to rip 25 yards like in a snap. The problem is he runs into his lineman all the time. His vision is not very good and he's pretty prone to getting negative plays. They drafted Zach Charbonnet, who is like the polar opposite of that. He is if you block five yards, he's getting five yards. If you block three, he's going to get five yards somehow. If you block 10, he's also going to get five yards, but that's fine. Like the offense kind of needed that stability. Cause I think we saw over the

second half of last season, like their play action game wasn't as strong. I think they were having to lean a little bit too much on drop back, which put a lot of pressure on the rookie tackles. And so the offense was kind of wonky at certain points, but I think if they can balance the offense a little bit with, you know, Jackson Smith and Jigba over the middle, and then being able to get the running game a little bit more. So they're not in second and 12 as often as they were last year. I think they're just going to be cooking. So I think the offense is going to be like top seven, top eight. They're going to be insane. We'll see about the defense. I think everybody's very high on San Francisco and I think that Seattle's going to win

that division. I'm going to, I'm going to pick it that way because I feel like they're ready to take a step forward and San Francisco may not be as good as they were last year. So I got one more for you, but I'm going to pair it together. I think both Aaron Rogers and Justin Herbert are being pumped up this off season as just wait until you see these guys. Rodgers with Garrett Wilson, Kellen Moore out there in Los Angeles. And I know you're a Kellen Moore respecter, but I'm going to say that both guys aren't that different from what they were last year. And I know that like Herbert's going to have maybe healthier ribs and we'll probably throw it a little more down the field. But I also think that there's a little bit of, he is what he is with some of the check down and get rid of the ball quickly stuff to avoid sacks. So what do you think? Like not, I'm just

saying, I don't think that they will be quite as great as they're being pumped up to be. I am more inclined to believe that Herbert will figure himself out for a couple of reasons. One, he's a lot younger. So I think there's a little bit more like he might be able to grow into himself a little bit more. And I do think in years past, he wasn't as bad about the I'm going to sprint to the check down as he was last year. I think, you know, after like Sean Slater went down, the rest of the line was not very good and he knew nobody was going to get open down the field. He did get a little like I'm just going to instantly sprint to my check down and like he missed a couple of throws I think he could have had over the middle of the field and stuff like that that was probably my biggest gripe watching him but I still think he's just so talented he's

so smart now they have I think they're getting Jalen Guyton back from injury obviously they drafted Quinton Johnston who's going to give them not only some downfield presence but like a guy who can actually run after the catch because last, the only guy who could do it was Austin Eckler. They didn't have the tight ends to do it. Keenan Allen, that's never even really been his game, but it's especially not now. And even Mike Williams is really just a throw it up and catch it kind of guy. So I think they've added enough juice to the offense. And there's a lot of addition by subtraction with getting rid of Joe Lombardi that I have enough faith that the Chargers and Herbert can kind of figure themselves out.

Rodgers, I'm a little bit more. We'll wait and see. Because last year, he just, I get it. The offense wasn't that good. They had a lot of young receivers and he hates young receivers, yada, yada, yada. But he just didn't look like he was interested in playing quarterback. And again, maybe that's like he's reignited now, but it just felt like he just didn't look like he was interested in playing quarterback and again maybe that's like he's ignited he's reignited now but it just felt like he was a different player and he was so far

removed from the guy that we saw win mvps that i'm really more in like we'll see what happens here because the other thing about jets and the rogers too is like their offensive line is not that good and i think that was a huge problem when the Packers started getting injuries. Last year was like, ah, he doesn't really want to hold on to the ball. He can't make plays outside the pocket the way that he used to. This is becoming a little bit of an issue.

I think if that's a problem again with New York, we'll see about Aaron Rodgers and the Jets. So I have a rule that I never doubt legends until they're actually gone. Like even last year, I would have said, you know, and it wouldn't shock me if Brady somehow went in the playoffs and just won, even though he was miserable the whole season. But with Rogers, I think that there is enough evidence from last year. And also, I just want to see a picture like 2015 or 16 Rogers versus now Rogers.

I mean, this man must be like 25 pounds lighter and right. He just looks like skinny. I don't know. I don't know. Like maybe all the weird teas and strange leafs that he eats or whatever. I think I read that his girlfriend drinks mud, like actual mud. And it's supposed to do something,

which please don't try that. I'm sure it does something, but not anything good. Right, right, right. So, I mean, the guy has gotten into all the weird science stuff and it seems like it's taken an effect on his body or he's just old. And at some point, that's got to matter. And at least he didn't have the face surgery, like Tom Brady. True. Okay. I'm sorry. That's too far. I apologize, Tom Brady. Anyway. So let,

let me just end on this then Derek, what is the quarterback trend that you think is changing in the NFL from what you saw last year into the future? Because it was like in 2020, everyone started running the boots and it was like Gary Kubiak, you know, just a great season for him. And then every defense went, ah, no more boots. We're going to play those, you know, two safeties back. And so the offense has said, OK, how about we just throw underneath all the time? Where do you think this is going this year? I think you have to be like with with defense is kind of moving to this more too high stuff. And like it's a little bit harder to just be in this run the ball all the time and like cheese play action all that stuff

I think you have to be able to be an intermediate drop back passer like no play action no RPOs none of that stuff and like that's kind of why like Kirk was able to kind of survive this change in a way is because he developed that he learned how to do that at a high level but I think you look around the league and a lot of the best quarterbacks can do that like obviously all the elite guys are going to be able to do that like no matter what the league is doing but even guys that were like a tier below that last year like Trevor Lawrence wasn't elite last year but he was really good because he was insane throwing the middle of the field the intermediate area off a drop back like just being able to throw comebacks like 12 yard out routes dig routes all that sort of stuff you have to be able to throw comebacks, like 12 yard out routes, dig routes, all that sort of stuff.

You have to be able to live in that area right under the safeties and over the linebackers. Like it's just without being able to cheese play action the way that we used to, I think that's kind of necessary. So I think quarterbacks that can figure that out or offenses that can kind of just get around that. Like last year, the Eagles kind of just got around that. Like they were just like,

we're going to RPO a bunch for our short game. We're going to throw a bunch of nine balls. That's the offense. And it was like, I guess when you have like two top 10 receivers and a quarterback who can run, it doesn't matter and you can get away with that. But I think, like I said,

unless you have a very specific offense that can get away with it, that's the area you have to be able to live right now. Derek Klassen, at QB class on Twitter. I'm just, just like with a Washington football team, still calling them Washington football team. I'm still calling a Twitter.

I'm not calling it the other thing. Reception perception though, Matt Harmon's website. If you know him from the fantasy world, it is amazing insight on receivers, quarterbacks. I am a subscriber. So love the fact that you are now

working with him as well and uh you know we will definitely keep an eye on how this thing progresses and of course you will return to the show throughout the season so thanks so much derek for all your time as always thanks again for having me all right we welcome back to the show here on Purple Insider. Aaron Schatz, the analytics legend, coming out now with the FTN Football Almanac. I'm very excited for this, Aaron. Also, it's not just the book version. There's a PDF version as well that people can get.

And I was just taking a look over it a little bit. And what I realized is it says, Aaron, that this has the most accurate team predictions. That is the claim of the FTN football almanac. So I feel like I should make predictions and you should tell me how accurate they are. Is that good with you? Sure. I mean, I, you know, I don't have a number for you like, oh, well, we've been right X percent of the time and some other sites have been right X percent. But our numbers are, we feel pretty confident in the accuracy of the numbers we've done in past years. We've hit a lot of playoffs.

I mean, no, truly, this is what, this is what the almanac has been for so many years is a great guide to the beginning of the season. But also you can look back and go, oh, you know what? They saw this coming with regression or with a team taking a big step forward. And I think that's a great place for us to start with the Minnesota Vikings is just the regression. Because last year we had a great conversation midway through the season where I said, Aaron, should people actually be calling them frauds? That seems unfair. And I think you said it was a little unfair to call them frauds and they did not come through in the playoffs but they have had so much roster turnover if i were to make a prediction though that they would not regress as much as people think and they would

hit the vegas over still and that they would win the nfc north still despite the natural one score game regression how accurate would you say that prediction would be yeah we're not going for that sorry i realize this is a weird uh it's a weird show for me to do to promote the book because we're so down on the vikings the fact is our numbers had the vikings lower than anybody last year they were they finished the season 27 in our numbers, despite being 13 and four, which is crazy. So even though points scored and allowed would suggest they're going to go like 500, which is what their number is in Vegas, 8.5. Our numbers suggest it's lower than that, in part because of the talent that they lost this offseason. Right. I mean, the Dus Smith and Adam Thielen.

I'm not that concerned losing Dalvin Cook, honestly. You know us analytics guys, we're not really that concerned with running backs. But, you know, Patrick Peterson, too. It's, I mean, we have them going under their number. Like, here I am promoting my book to a bunch of Vikings fans and telling them how bad we think the Vikings are going to be this year. The thing is that the decisions that the year was not a really a 13 and four year that this is really a rebuilding team like the decisions they themselves have made would seem to agree more with the analytics than with the raw win-loss rate yeah i mean this is the competitive rebuild that quesia daflamenza talked about that they were comfortable in moving on with those players which

is such a rare thing though Aaron I mean it's just you never see this with a team winning 13 games and then saying oh actually we're totally fine with moving on from several of our key pieces and I counted it up the players that they let go had 18 Pro Bowls them. And that didn't even count Delvin Tomlinson, who is a really good player. But at the same time, offense drive success in the NFL. So here's kind of the counter to that. If I'm making the prediction, which I'm really like on the fence,

I'm an, I'm the 8.5 of predictions. I'm kind of like, I don't know whether I should say that. I think that they're going to hit the over or not, but Jordan Addison has looked very good in training camp. Justin Jefferson is the best player in the universe. know whether I should say that I think that they're going to hit the over or not. But Jordan Addison has looked very good in training camp. Justin Jefferson is the best player in the universe that's not a quarterback. I mean, Christian Derrissaw is one of the top five

left tackles in the entire league. I think KJ Osborne is a competent player. TJ Hawkinson is a terrific tight end. They have a lot to work with on the offensive side that I feel like if I'm making a bet on which one of the sides of the ball is going to be more predictable. The defensive side, I really don't know. But I think I know what the offense is going to be. And it's like, how could a team be bad if their offense is going to be as good as they should be? Does that make sense? Well, I mean, last year their offense was 20th in our numbers. So I don't see any reason to believe that their offense is going to be that much better with basically the same players. I don't see much reason to believe it's much worse.

We have their offense projected 16th. So I don't know if, I mean, I don't know if I'd say Hopkinson is a great tight end. The player comment in the book makes the argument that he's a lot closer to Evan Ingram than people want to admit. But, you know, Jefferson is all world. You know, Addison looks good, but I don't know if he can directly replace Thielen right away. It might take a couple of years to reach that good. You know, although I don't know whether Thielen would have been that good this year because Thielen's clearly on the downside. Right. But the big problem is the defense we have the defense projected worse than the league so i mean defense is harder to project than offense so we could definitely be wrong about the defense because defense is just harder to project but we have the offense is average and

the defense is terrible and together that would come into a losing record yeah on the defensive side i think in i even forgot about tomlinson when i started going to the players they lost i didn't even mention it geez i mean yeah they lost a lot of guys yeah no they did and patrick peterson statistically was one of the best cornerbacks in the entire NFL last year. And now they have two guys on the outside in Makai Blackman and Caleb Evans who have played a grand total of like 120 snaps in the NFL. And I think that's what makes it so hard to predict is that they have younger players in these roles that if you're trying to project it numbers wise you wouldn't make a bet that they were going to be good i'm gonna ask you by the way what's the deal with andrew booth oh the deal is that uh andrew booth's body is uh older than yours is um i i

think i mean he's never gonna live this down but when he came out of college in the draft the draft night after they picked him he told us he had never been healthy since high school and that is how good right that was like uh i don't know if you should say that on draft night but um even i i remember them talking about not being a hundred percent sure or kind of asking their medical people like are you sure we should draft this guy he's just been hurt and even in this training camp he was already banged up and had to miss a few days so I think that was one of those picks where if he gets healthy he could be a really good player but he's just never healthy and eventually that makes you not the 4-4 runner that you were right if you just have so many injuries so yeah it's just interesting to see a team you know they take a cornerback in the second uh i can't remember if he was a high second

or a low second but instead of that they're going to play a third and a fourth right because caleb evans is a fourth and the rookie is a third so right and and it's just interesting with uh brian florist now as their defense coordinator because I think that this speaks to the nature of how hard this is to project, because he's going to blitz the heck out of the other team. And when you blitz the heck out of the other team, sometimes you win and sometimes you lose. Right. And that's leaving these young cornerbacks are going to get left on islands. And I mean, you know, Murphy's reasonable, right? The guy came over from Arizona, but it's, you know, they're just expecting a lot out of a lot of inexperienced players, which is why we have their defense projected pretty low.

It's pretty similar to the Rams, except the Rams have Aaron Donald and the Vikings. Right. And with Daniil Hunter, they bring him back. That is helpful to them, but we sometimes overrate what one guy means to a defense. And so even if Daniil Hunter gets 10 sacks, who else is doing the sacking of the quarterback? And this is sort of the balance. It's like, how much can a defensive coordinator's aggression, you know, even sort of the natural issues that they have with the roster?

I mean, they have some run stuffers in there that are pretty good. Harrison Phillips. They bring over Dean Lowry, who was good two years ago. But you still have questions there. And they have an older linebacker in Jordan Hicks, undersized linebacker, whoever starts next to him, whether it's Ivan Pace or Brian Asamoah. And, you know, from the safety position, again, like uninspiring guys outside of harrison smith

and yet when i watch them in training camp and it is training camp i understand that they are causing a lot of havoc with harrison smith and with brian flores i'm kind of intrigued turtle i mean right oh of course and you know like i said harder to project right like the the best offense and the best the best and worst offenses are going to be 60 to 70 percent stronger than the best and worst defenses and projections, just because the range of possibilities is so much wider for defenses. And when I say that we have the projected with the worst defense, it's basically tied with Chicago. So it's not I shouldn't pretend that they're like the worst defense by like leaps and bounds. But I don't even recognize most of the players on Chicago's defense.

So there's that. But I want to talk about that. Try the Rams other than Aristotle. That is a real bunch of who are these people. Hey, look, they went all in and that flag flies forever. But we knew that this was going to happen. Right. But I want to go back to the offense, though, because you mentioned that you had them in DVO a last year, uh, being 20th, which I think would

be counterintuitive to what a lot of Vikings fans, uh, you know, saw and their overall point scoring rankings. But I also think that when you look a little bit deeper and look at the percentage of drives where they produce points, that there were a lot of like long dead periods of this offense and then also some of it numbers wise was spun by the fact that they were playing in shootouts all the time having to score in the fourth quarters of games which i think by your numbers would probably like when you are down 30 points to indianapolis you have to score a bunch of points to come back uh if i understand the dvoa correctly it's like no no no no that's not good we're not giving you yeah it doesn't matter as much when you're down by 30 because normally when you're down by 30

you're not coming back the vikings somehow did but yeah i mean their passing was a little bit above average but their rushing was pretty bad so right if the rushing can get better the offense will be better it's just it's so jefferson centric the offense is so and cousins took a step back last year like i know that's weird to say about a 13 and 14 but cousins's personal numbers were not as good as in years past he still is like consistently like the 12th best quarterback in the league pretty much like he's very consistent in his good but not greatness um but yeah it's it's listen talking about the nfl and projections there's always you know a

wide variety of possibilities in the nfl compared to other sports because we have a lower sample size to go on from the past and there's more turnover from year to year but it's just this team by our numbers this team just was not good last year and they just escaped with that ridiculous number of close wins and that's very unlikely to happen again and so um we just we're overall down on them we're down on Chicago too I mean it's not it's not our highest division in the NFC world yeah well you know I think that Vikings fans last year were surprisingly reasonable about last season and that speaks to yeah that really speaks to about it they kind of understood what was going on well because they saw it I mean they saw a 61yard field goal win a game.

They saw, you know, a Josh Allen fumble win a game. So they, I think, understood that that magic carpet ride doesn't last forever. And then when they lost in the playoffs, it was kind of a, they are who we thought they were, that they were more of a 500 team that just had a magical season. But I do want to ask, though, let's say that your numbers are completely wrong and that we do this at the end of the season and I'm saying, ah, there you go, Aaron, you messed up and it wasn't the most accurate prediction.

What would have to change for them in order for your prediction for them to go under the eight and a half to be, to be wrong. Cousins would need to bounce back a little bit from the decline that we saw a little bit last year. And the defense would have to be much better. I think it's more likely that we're wrong about the defense and the defense comes out average than that. We're wrong about the offense and the offense comes out.

Great. I just, comes out average, then that we're wrong about the offense and the offense comes out great. I just, it's, it's really hard to expect a lot from KJ Osborne and a rookie, as far as the receivers go. And the running, the run blocking was not great the last couple of years. They were 24th and 25th in adjusted line yards over the last two years. So even if Madison, you know, there's no reason to believe Madison is better than Cook, but even if he is, I can't see the running game being that much better. It would really just take, you know, another phenomenal Jefferson season and just get so much more out of the other receivers and Hawkinson and Kirk Cousins than you expect for the offense to be so much better so it's much more

likely that we're wrong about the defense than that we're wrong about the offense and I like Flores look I'm a Patriots fan right so he's an old Patriots guy um he'll he'll um you'll blitz more than you expect and you'll rush three more than you expect and it'll be interesting and uh so you know it's more likely we're wrong about the defense uh so you you made a comment about hawkinson being closer to evan ingram than people think um i have been an advocate of extending hawkinson and making him a very highly paid tight end what is the other side of that opinion because i think when he came in last year he was a big difference maker for the offense but i also understand that in terms

of yards per reception it was not a travis kelsey situation it was a lot of underneath stuff to hockinson and maybe an unfortunate fourth and eight check down in the playoffs mixed in he does the kind of things that frustrate coaches that's what the comment in the book brings up he drops passes which i'm not a big fan of of being that concerned with drops because there are lots of good receivers who have drops and drops tend to be inconsistent, but he does. He gets penalties. He's not a great blocker. He's never had a spectacular DVOA, right? His highest ranking over the last three years was 18 so he's just to me he seems like a good tight end but not a great tight end and i wouldn't blow out the i wouldn't blow out the budget for him now i yeah i think you do make a totally accurate point on the blocking that they brought in josh oliver for a reason because you know tj hockon and I was surprised when I saw him in person that he's smaller than I expected. Like I had covered Kyle Rudolph, this big giant hulking tight end.

I was like, Oh, okay. I guess this guy also plays tight end. Uh, but I do think that he has enough speed and quickness to get open a lot underneath and be a very helpful security blanket for Kirk cousinsousins, which matters when everyone's putting all their attention into Jefferson, which I did want to ask you about expectations for Jefferson, because I've brought up a stat that I ran across in the off season about receivers who had 1700 yards or more in a single season that no one has ever done it in a back to back season. Now, things that Justin Jefferson can do that no one else has ever done it in a back-to-back season now things that justin jefferson can do that no one else has ever done happens all the time right because he's justin jefferson

but how do we project someone when there is some expected regression after an all-time great season well the first thing that justin jefferson can do that other people haven't been able to do is play 17 games so that makes it a little easier to repeat on the 1,700 receiving yards. But it's not likely that he will. And that doesn't make him not great. Like our fantasy projection has him with 1,480, which still would lead the league. Like you just don't project people with 1,700.

You don't project a quarterback with 45 touchdowns, even though it's there's a good possibility with a 17 game season somebody will get that but you don't project anyone with it so i mean there's a good chance jefferson goes out doesn't really decline at all and declines just because you just don't do what he did last year two straight years but you're more likely to do it now with 17 games than you were before yeah and i think that in the best case scenario for this offense he has like 1400 yards but the other guys get more uh you know jordan addison and kj osborne and tj hawkinson and alexander madison out of the backfield uh it was kind of a underrated thing for their offense but

they were just horrible with screen passes and throwing to the running back outside of a 75 yard touchdown to, uh, you know, Delvin cook. It was pretty bad for the passes to the running back. So it could be so much attention drawn to Jefferson that they, they could go, you know, to other places. The other thing I want to ask you about was the Viking schedule, because I think that this would probably factor in i look at it as being a particularly tough schedule but i also understand that predicting a schedule before the season is very tough to do because you don't know you don't even know like what quarterback you're gonna face sometimes i mean you think that you're going to face joe burrow but if it's, I don't know who's backup. If it's not, oh yeah, old friend, old friend. If it's John Kitna or if it's, you know, Dave Klingler,

then, you know, maybe it's different than facing Joe Burrow. But what is your feeling on the Vikings first place schedule after having such a good season last year, you kind of get penalized by the league. Based on the average DVOA of their opponents, we have Minnesota with pretty much an average schedule. But it is the hardest schedule in that division. Green Bay is the number 30 schedule.

So that's a significant difference between Green Bay and Minnesota. But when it comes, the fact is that the whole division has it kind of easy when it comes to who they play from other divisions. So when you balance that out with the first place teams that Minnesota has to play, they end up with an average schedule. Well, and this could be a huge swing. Maybe we can talk about both of these teams with Green Bay and San Francisco. San Francisco is on the Vikings schedule. I don't know what Brock Purdy is going to look like. That could be a Case Keenum situation where it was just magical or a 13 win Kerry Collins for the Tennessee Titans once upon a time. It's everything. Quarterback 49ers.

And it doesn't matter who the quarterback is. It's just tech mobile and you're playing in Kyle Shanahan's scheme and you're awesome. Or it could be Nick Mullins and they win four games, right? I mean, if it goes bad, then it's like people act like he's impervious to having bad quarterback play when they have had bad seasons. That's how they got Nick Bosa. How do we project quarterbacks that don't give us any stats to work with, like Jordan Love and Brock Purdy? Difficultly.

Right, it's hard. I mean, you base it on what the team has done in the past because you figure scheme and coordinator does matter some, and you base it some on the players around them. And we certainly think that Purdy has really great players around him and a really great scheme. So we're higher on Love than I think other people are because we have Green Bay with basically an average offense, around him in a really great scheme so we're higher on love than I think other people are

because we have the Green Bay with basically an average offense and we have the San Francisco with a top 10 offense because we just think the Shanahan scheme I mean it's the variability is wider certainly these guys that we're Kirk Cousins who we know exactly what he is at this point and that's what he is and it's very unlikely that he's going to be much better or worse than what he is but uh with love and purdy yeah it's a it's a wide ranging thing but i think having san francisco on your schedule is bad the fact is that there's still a really good defense nick bosa will sign they should still be a good offense they're my nfc pet i mean they're my pick to come out of the NFC. So I believe that whoever they plug in at quarterback to think, okay, maybe not Sam Darnold, but it's, you know, either Lance or Purdy,

I think they can do it. I also saw maybe on Twitter that you were predicting the bills in the Super Bowl, which seems like you're asking for a black hole to open up and suck the universe into by doing that. Yeah, it's my second year of picking the pills for the Superbowl. So I think I may just continue to pick the bills until they do it. I mean, that's not true.

Actually. Their cap situation is terrible next year. This is the, like, this is the year they have to do it this year. It does work that way sometimes though, with a team that has a great quarterback like that, where they just get close and close and close.

And finally, I keep comparing them to the 2006 indianapolis colts yeah i like that i like that or even like the saints with drew breeze like it eventually just kind of happens uh even if there's close calls but let me let me make some more sort of rapid fire predictions and you can rank the prediction and these aren't even necessarily ones that i'm like totally all in on predicting but i just think are interesting so if I were to predict that the Detroit Lions would win 13 games like how how accurate would you find that prediction to be I find that unlikely but I do we do have them as the favorite in the division 13 game their offense and defense would have to be

a lot better than we expect for them to win 13 games. But we do have them as the divisional favorites. We have them slightly above average on both sides. What do you think would hold them back offensively? Because last year they were top five in scoring. Then at a certain point, now that everybody's got a whole year and a whole offseason to look at Ben Johnson's thing, people may figure it out a little bit and figure out how to, how to pressure golf. And golf's always had the same thing, which is you tell him where to throw it and he'll make it happen. But as soon as he has to think on his own, you're in trouble. And if you get the pressure,

if you can figure out how to pressure him and get him out of structure, he's in trouble. So like that, that's the thing that makes me think Detroit's not going to necessarily have an offense as good as they did last year. But their defense should be better than it was last year, and they should have less competition because Minnesota's not going to go 1,000-0 in one-score games again, and Green Bay doesn't have Aaron Rodgers. I also think that Jared Goff will not be happy to see Brian Flores show up in his division. If you go back to that game against Miami where he got blitzed 40 times on 60 dropbacks

and had the worst game of his career. So I don't think he's going to be thrilled for that. What if I were to predict that instead of being all in on Justin Fields by the end of the season, Chicago was talking about whether it's time to draft Caleb Williams or Drake May. I don't think that that's, I think that that definitely could happen. Fields is an interesting guy because there are so many reasons to explain how bad his passing performance is. But people do not understand how bad his passing performance is. Because one, he is a great runner. Runner equals highlights. Highlights stick in our brain. Two, a lot of it is, my God, does he take sacks. And it's

not on his offensive line. He just takes sacks, so many sacks. So even if he's more accurate and he has better receivers this year and everything, he's going to take tons of sacks. So I said this on Twitter a couple of days ago. He has been under minus 20% in past DVLA for two straight years, a lot under. So I went back and looked for other quarterbacks who were under minus 20%, you know, with at least 200 passes. And then in the third year, they were actually above average. Not just improved, but improved enough that they were actually above average. Do you want to know how many quarterbacks qualified for that in 40 years?

I'm going to guess four one one jeff george 1993 that is it it is so rare to go from what justin fields has done in his first two years to being an above average passer i mean he could be a slightly below average passer and with his rushing value, he would be an average quarterback, but for him to become an above average passer, it would be really just tremendously unlikely. So yes, I think there's a reasonable chance that after this year, Chicago is well we took the shot it didn't work let's do it again right yeah and the thing is that why I liked that play from Ryan Poles sort of I didn't there was a part of me that thought maybe you should just draft Bryce Young but it was if he's

bad they'll win four games because their defense isn't going to hold them up and one one wide receiver isn't going to make them vastly better. So they will be in position to draft that quarterback again. And maybe they view those two top guys as being better prospects. Although they do have a lot of competition, which was going to be another prediction is that Kyler Murray is playing for somebody else because Arizona finishes dead last and takes a quarterback. So I know I just predicted two teams finishing last but they like it could be chicago and and uh arizona if things go bad with fields but what do you think about kyler murray potentially ending up somewhere else given that colt mccoy has never been horrible and that murray may come

back at mid-season i don't think arizona is going to be as bad as people think okay who's drafting caleb then who's drafting caleb then arizona but you said they're not going to be as bad as people think. Okay, who's drafting Caleb then? Who's drafting Caleb then? Arizona. But you said they're not going to be as bad. Yes, but Houston is. Oh, okay. Oh! We have Arizona with a 25% chance of getting the number one pick, but that's 15% Houston and 10% themselves.

It's very likely that Arizona walks out of the draft with a quarterback and Marvin Harrison wow yeah yeah right how crazy is that trade I mean if they pick one three if they pick two three maybe even if they pick two four like their prop they're going to get a quarterback and marvin harrison i mean that could end up being just if it goes wrong with cj stroud that could be houston's like herschel walker trade i am not just wrong like just a rookie just a right like rookie right it's right rookies struggle top rookies struggle travel i mean i realize you could blame urban meyer but you know trevor Trevor Lawrence struggled as a rookie. For rookies to do what Russell Wilson and Robert Griffin did in 2012 is rare. And so it is likely Houston will pick high again, which means Arizona will pick high.

And so, yeah, for Kyler, there's a reasonable chance kyler murray is playing somewhere else in 2024 and either caleb williams or drake may is the starting quarterback for arizona throwing to marvin harris okay i'm gonna throw one more at you a team that no one is really talking about as being great that i think could actually surprise everybody and be great the new orleans saints how hot is that prediction? Nah. No, you're not feeling it? No, I'm not. But I'll tell you what we do say about both the Falcons and the Saints.

The Saints people, I think, realize this. The Falcons people don't. The Saints defense is very good. We think the Falcons defense is going to be much improved. We think those offenses can be average. So a little bit below average probably for Atlanta and for New Orleans. So those teams are not going to be bad. Those teams are going to be average. Okay. I think people understand that about New Orleans, but not Atlanta. They play the easiest schedules in the league by a lot. There is a big gap between New Orleans and Atlanta and the other 30 teams in the league.

So my prediction is, even though the division champion last year had a losing record, the NFC South will send two teams to the playoffs over teams that are better, but have harder schedules. I like that. I like that. Atlanta, the thing for me is I guess I'm still confused why they just decided to roll with Desmond Ritter because I think that the rest of the team on offense is pretty good. Yeah, but Ritter played okay in the four games that he played last year. It's not quite the Brock Purdy situation.

He wasn't as good as Purdy was. And I don't believe in the Arthur Smith, you know, scheme as much as I believe in the Kyle Shanahan scheme. But there's a little bit of we did get a small sample size. He was reasonable in that small sample size. We know it's a good scheme and we know he's got lots of talent to go. Drake London underrated. Kyle Pitts underrated at this point. So it's not that I think we have Atlanta projected 19th on offense. So I'm not like Desmond Ritter, superstar.

But if you look at their defense, adding Calais Campbell and Chessie Bates and Caden Ellis and a couple of other guys who I'm not remembering right now like we just have their defense improving a lot and again like i said atlanta new orleans the schedules are really easy so i can't see new orleans as a great team but what i can see them at is a team which is average and then has a really easy schedule and both Atlanta and new Orleans in our simulations, both Atlanta and new Orleans average 10 wins. Wow. Okay. So if new Orleans does a little better than that, because their division is pretty garbage and their schedule is easy, which was part of the factor for me.

And I thought that they were a pretty competitive team last year with Andy Dalton, who's just not good at all. And I'm not a huge Derek Carr believer in the same way that. It should be a step up. It should be a step. Yes. No, Dalton was actually good last year. Dalton had a positive DVOA last year.

But if you look at their careers and you say, who's more likely to be good this year? The answer is Derek Carr. Derek Carr is more likely to be good this year than Dalton. So they made the right decision to change quarterback, but we have new Orleans is offense predicted as 22nd. Oh really? Okay. See, I would have higher. We have their defense six.

That makes sense. And in that division, that schedule, that could get you pretty far, even if it's a little bit better than that offensively. So they could be the team. I think the way I look at it is they could be the team that wins 12 and is not actually that good but they have 12 wins so it was a really good season for them if that makes sense and then everyone talks about what a great move it was to get their car then they regress the next season and we do it all over again here's the interesting question if that's what happens because of schedule. Do people recognize it the way they recognized Minnesota last year and go fraud?

Not because of the close wins, but because of the schedule. Because if New Orleans wins 12 games, that schedule is going to be a big, big component of it. And it will probably mean I was wrong about Atlanta and they'll sweep it. I think less so. I think they will less so. I think there's more benefit of the doubt. I also think that Vikings fans are so cynical that they were very willing to be like,

something's going wrong with us. Yeah, because I will say, I mean no disrespect here to Giants fans, but I feel like the Vikings fans understood what was going on with the Vikings more than the Giants understood that basically the same thing was going on with the Giants. Yeah, 100%, 100%. And I think that it's just the general disposition of vikings fans overall like everyone enjoyed the season and enjoyed those crazy wins and every sunday was like gripping the

edge of your seat so you couldn't go outside and mow the lawn after the first half or whatever but at the same time like they've seen the movie before so many times where the vikings kind of get pumped up on this magic carpet ride and then eventually they know that case keenum throws a pick against the eagles and they lose right or that you know gary anderson misses a kick like it's just happened so many times to them that they i think mentally prepared themselves for it before it happened and then when kirk checked down on fourth and eight and the season ended, it was like, oh yeah, okay. That's kind of what we thought. My girlfriend's company holiday party. When I left the house, Indianapolis was winning by what? 30 something. And I was like, I'm not, I'm not going to make her listen to this in the car. I mean, you know, come on, you know,

we drove down to Mohegan sun in Connecticut for this holiday party. And I'm like, I'm not going to make her listen to this game that Indianapolis is winning by 30. We get to Mohegan Sun and I opened my phone and Minnesota won the game. What the hell? I was there. And I still say what the reporter next to me left and went home when they were down by as much as they were. He's like, I'm just going to go work from home. And yeah, it was one of the, that's the thing is it, you don't want to be so cynical about that season.

And if they had beaten the giants and lost to the 49ers the next week, I think everyone would have said, Hey, Bravo, great season. That was really fun. You hit a buzzsaw team, but the way that it ended, I think everyone would have said, hey, bravo, great season. That was really fun. You hit a buzzsaw team. But the way that it ended, I think, left – well, not only did it leave a bad taste in their mouth, but I think it also allowed Kweisi Adafo-Mensah to do what he wanted to do, which was to change over this roster. So in a way, like if the ownership had said, oh, we were this close to beating the 49ers, run it back,

I think that would have been bad for them long term. Yes, I agree completely. Aaron, always an honor to have you on the show. A-Shots NFL on Twitter, the FTN Football Almanac. Let's see what Amazon, tell me the places to find it. Let me remind the listeners and viewers that we are no longer with Football Outsiders. I've left Football Outsiders. This is the book that used to be with Football Outsiders. I've left Football Outsiders. This is the book that used to be the Football Outsiders Almanac. It's now the FTN Football Almanac. It will be on Amazon in a day or two. It's on FTN's site now as a PDF.

FTNfantasy.com. Look for the picture of Patrick Mahomes. It's $34.99 for the PDF. For the physical book, it'll be coming out soon. It'll be $34.99 for the PDF. The physical book that will be coming out soon will be $39.99. And yeah, FTN Football Almanac 2022. And there will be a link in the description, whether you're watching this on YouTube or listening on the podcast feed, for you to go check it out.

Aaron, we'll definitely do it again. And then we can circle back on how these predictions worked out the next time we talk. So again, always, you're one of my favorites for, uh, I don't know, 20 years now, I guess, probably that I've been following your work. So, uh, great to have you on the show. Always an honor. And, uh, we'll talk again soon. Thanks, man. Sounds good.