Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - Will Ragatz breaks down the most pressing Vikings schedule questions

Episode Date: May 12, 2023

Matthew Coller and Will Ragatz of Sports Illustrated dive into the Vikings' schedule, breaking down how the opener could have a big impact on how the rest of the schedule plays out, how many wins Will thinks the Vikings will end up with and his favorite logo matchups Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Welcome to another episode of Purple Insider. Matthew Collar along with Will Raggetts of Sports Illustrated inside TCO Performance Center just before we head out to watch rookies take the field in minicamp and make complete judgments on their future based on what they look like today. Will, how are you? I'm good, yeah. No, I'm excited to completely decide my opinions on various rookies based on a few warm-up drills and running a couple routes or whatever they're going to do today. But no, I'm excited to be here and talk

about the Vikings schedule, which just came out last night, which is always one of the big events on the calendar. You know, the NFL has to make everything into some huge content ordeal. And that's exactly what they've done with the schedule release. But people love it. Yeah, well, I love it as well, because it gives us an opportunity to run down, plan our road trips, where we're going to go, where we're going to go early. Vegas, for sure. That is easily the winner in the clubhouse there. So that is not one of the questions I have for you because I thought that was too obvious, but I do have other questions and we could start with the broad ones and then we can get more ridiculous as we go along.

If that's okay with you. So more than okay. Here was which ones when you were looking at the W's and L's trying to figure out, all right, you know which games are they going to win which game should we expect them to win and my process is very uncomplicated it's usually just that should we expect them to win that game or is that one going to be a little too tough or whatever what was the hardest game or games for you to decide whether to

write a little w or L next to their names? Well, I think you always look at, okay, when you're playing a, this isn't going to be anything groundbreaking, but when you're playing a decent or bad team at home, you should win that game. When you're playing a tough team on the road, that's going to be tough. I think it's where those two kind of intersect, where maybe you're playing a good team at home. I look at like the Chargers game in week three or even the 49ers who are a really good team,

Monday Night Football in week seven. Those are games that you get at US Bank Stadium. So those were kind of tough for me to call. And then if you're playing a team that you're maybe a little bit better than, but you're on the road and usually that affects the line by about three points we've learned over the years. So I look at the Atlanta Falcons, who I think Desmond Ritter is a big question mark, but they added a ton of pieces this offseason. I think that's going to be a tough team to beat

just because with B. John Robinson and Arthur Smith's offense, they're just going to try to ground and pound the ball and kind of shorten the game, fewer possessions. So that was a tough one. At Denver, I know I'm giving you a bunch of answers here, think i think that team will be a lot better with sean payton this year so it's it's the the home games against good teams and the road games against teams that you don't really know what to make of could be around hanging around the middle this year so let's talk about each one of those because i also had some troubles with those uh new orleans

at home was another one where when the other team's quarterback is exactly like your team's quarterback, you're just like, I don't know. I mean, you could even make that case for the Raiders, but I think their defense is so bad, and it's going to be a home game on the road. Because people have talked about, well, they have more road games this year. Not at Vegas they don't. That is a neutral field at best, but almost a guarantee

that vikings fans are taking over that stadium and then they're playing jimmy garoppolo though who is exactly like kirk cousins only just injured more often i guess and maybe like cooler by regular societal standards yeah you've got jimmy garoppolo is handsome kirk cousins yes derrick carr is like slightly swaggier kurt cousins maybe like emo kurt cousins that's good is it is it his helmet by the way for why his eyes always look really dark on national tv games it's got to be like where his helmet comes across it's a shadow that is cast upon his face but he looks like a dark Game of Thrones character or something, you know, like just the way that his face is lit up on national TV.

Anyway, that's not the point. They're all the same person. You also got two games against former top pick Kirk Cousins in Jared Goff. Oh, right. I don't know how else to describe him necessarily. Well, he used to be like Hollywood Kirk Cousins, but no longer. Now he's in Detroit. Now he's in Detroit.

So just top pick Kirk Cousins. justin herbert is at a different level than kirk cousins but the chargers you know what's funny about them is brandon staley has gotten almost no criticism for his defense yet two years in a row not that great they signed jc jackson they pay him a bunch of money isn't like he made any impact. In fact, by the numbers, he was horrendous fitting into that defense last season. So I think it's an interesting matchup from being Brandon Staley's team against Kevin O'Connell's team, a defensive-minded coach versus an offensive-minded coach. But to me, this is Kellen Moore's show.

Kellen Moore has really solved Vikings defenses. Not that it's been hard in recent years, but last year they throttled the Vikings. He's going to be facing obviously Brian Flores and not at Donatello. But this was a very hard one for me because I don't trust the chargers with anything. And I don't think that their coach is as good as the hype that he gets. Yet they do have the quarterback. They do have the offensive coordinator. They're also pretty flawed, and it's a U.S. Bank Stadium,

and Herbert hasn't played there before. So that was a hard one for me. Oh, definitely. It's the first one that jumps out as being tough and being kind of a test of, all right, we'll probably learn what the Vikings are going to be or a little more at least about what the Vikings are going to be because I think the first two weeks are about as chalky as it gets.

I think week one is probably the easiest game on the schedule with Tampa Bay quarterbacked by either Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask. And I think week two is arguably the hardest game on the schedule. I know the Eagles are replacing their offensive coordinator, replacing their defensive coordinator, but that place in a night game, we just saw it last year, that is such a tough place to play Jalen Hurts I mean they were a player two away from winning the Super Bowl so I think right away you're probably looking at one and one unless something's surprising and then you come home and you have a Chargers team where to me the talent

level here is kind of similar I mean they've got good players on both sides of the ball they've got an advantage at quarterback not a not a massive one but definitely an advantage and they've got a good offensive line all these things but yeah i'm with you where my biggest question about the charges is brandon staley and he became this big name i think just because people were like oh you can actually go for it on fourth down more than once a game that that's pretty cool but there's a lot more to coaching than that. And when you blow a 27-point lead in the playoffs, your seat's got to be a little warm entering the season. So to me, I think the Vikings have a little bit of a coaching advantage there. You're right that I think Kellen Moore was a good hire for them. But I don't know. His offenses have also been a little inconsistent at times in Dallas, I feel like. So that one is going to, I think, tell us a lot. I

think the Vikings having that at home is huge. Although if it was on the road, it would also be a home game. But, you know, I think that's going to be one where right away week three is it's a good kind of litmus test for this Viking scene. Well, I think it's a really important one, because if you can win that one, you go to Carolina, play the number one overall pick, but not in a time where bryce young has sort of figured out the nfl yet if you're playing him in week 15 i would say he might be actually good by then but week four okay that's that's when you should win and you need to because kansas city comes up the next week if you lose the chargers game then you're talking about having played philly chargers kansas city lost all those and you're you And you're still going into a tough section of the schedule, depending on how good Chicago and Green Bay are.

But those are still division opponents. Those games are never easy. It really is a swing game for how you feel about the schedule. Now, you brought up San Francisco. The hardest part about figuring out the San Francisco game is whether it matters who's playing quarterback. Because if you told me that Sam Darnold was playing quarterback, I might be like, Niners. I think I'm still picking the Niners. If it's Trey Lance, does that mean that Trey Lance played well enough to win the job and hold

onto the job, which means he's good? Is Brock Purdy, Case Keenum, and he's going to just throw a bunch of interceptions this year and not be actually that good like I I really don't know I mean I think I would pick San Francisco under most of those circumstances but it's harder I think to figure out when you have no idea out of three quarterbacks who's going to be playing for them yeah if San Francisco had like even I don't know prime Jimmy G or just like some quarterback that you could kind of bank on I think I'm taking them in this game for sure because the rest of the parts are so so good but I saw a quote the other day from Kyle Shanahan where he's like I think we got free three franchise guys at quarterback if you say you have three franchise guys you don't have any

so you're right it's fascinating because Brock Purdy I think is probably the favorite to be the starter here I think his from what I've seen from the news of his injury recovery he should be ready if not for the start of the season then probably by week seven but does he have staying power like is he are teams going to be able to kind of make some adjustments to him I mean this this is a guy who was the last pick in the draft it's very rare to see him do what he did last season I I wonder how sustainable it is. And then, yeah, Trey Lance, Sam Darnold, like there are all these possibilities. And I think Kyle Shanahan is so smart and the setup is so good with those weapons and offensive line and defense and everything

that any of those quarterbacks are going to give the Vikings a hard time. But I think the Vikings, whoever it is, they're going to give the Vikings a hard time but I think the Vikings whoever it is they're going to have an advantage at that position which is just always what I end up looking at first when I'm looking at these games who has the better quarterback I think the Vikings probably will in that game I wonder also will the defense kind of take a slight step back after losing D'Amico Ryans how important was he or was he just a good coach who was kind of blessed to be coaching joey bosa and all these fred warner and all these ridiculous players so that one to me i mean it's it's awesome i love the home night games there's just something that feels a little bit

different about those at us bank stadium and with a big time team and nfc finalists coming in that's that's gonna be fun other bosa nick bosa they play both bosas i said nick bosa didn't i did i say joey they do they do play both in the first seven weeks bosa bosas is what okay i'm sorry for that but uh that matchup between him and christian derisaw that night should be pretty interesting had the vikings won in the playoffs we would have seen it already but we only saw it in those training camp practices and i know some san francisco content creators took the few reps that derisaw lost and tweeted out and of course everyone's like oh is derisaw not that no it was a great battle every day between

those two and there are a lot i mean they are going to need christian derisaw to be great but that is one where i do think san francisco is still so loaded because it's not just loaded on defense the weapons kyle shanahan this is an inexperienced defense when we think about this vikings defense i mean this is a throwback to 2020 where you look around and go how many games have these guys put together outside of harrison smith and who knows with hunter and zadaria smith but there's not a lot of experience going on here. And I think that there's no more difficult coach to face than Kyle Shanahan. If you have inexperience,

especially linebacker with Brian Asamoah is going to be taking over that position. So I did Asamoah scene booth, all these like Kyle Shanahan's going to test you physically and mentally. So you're right. I've been kind of just operating under the assumption that this Vikings defense isn't going to be as awful as it was last season just on Brian Flores alone but for them to jump up into even the middle of the pack is gonna you're projecting a lot from those second year guys that they

drafted last year so it's something to keep in mind when you're looking at the schedule that until proven otherwise this Vikings defense is a major question mark and any offense any top offense they face is going to have an advantage unless we see something early that changes our mind on that well and when you look at the opposing quarterback schedule it's probably an eight out of ten if not a 9 out of 10 i mean you're facing dudes who are going to be in the hall of fame from the afc you are facing dudes who are the worst quarterbacks on the schedule but have still had previous success like baker mayfield is not a good nfl quarterback but it's not like he's never done anything it's not like he's never had great games

i mean the guy won 11 games for cle Cleveland and he showed flashes throughout his time. Jimmy G is the same way. Now, does Jimmy G make it to week 14? I don't know because he always gets banged up. But aside from like Desmond Ritter, I would say, all right, I'm not buying that. I buy their run game. I'm not buying Desmond Ritter. Aside from him, though, almost every one of these quarterbacks.

Well, you've got the two. You got the two kind of swing guys that are unknowns, I would say, Justin Fields and Jordan Love. That's four of your games right there where, on paper, you can see, all right, these are two former first-round picks, athletic, dual threat, all that. Fields has been brilliant as a runner and shown flashes as a passer, but he's like 5 and 20 as a starter so year three this kind of has to be the the time where he where he puts that together especially

throwing the football and then Jordan Love is just absolutely completely total unknown right so that could really swing it if those two if those are good this is maybe a 9 out of 10 quarterback schedule if they're not good maybe it's a 6 or something no that's a great point and i guess i mean ritter is also unproven and falls under that category bryce young i'm just assuming rookies always have a pretty difficult time ritter being a second year guy they have a decent offensive line they have a really good running game it's not impossible that he could take a big step in like ryan tannahill kind of fashion of just having this play action run offense that sets up everything for him. I just was not impressed last year from the times that I saw him and I'm not really buying based on the pedigree and everything else with the other two. Yeah. Those

are first round draft pick quarterbacks who clearly have the talent, but we just don't know what that's going to look like. So I put, yeah those under those are unknown i couldn't say well trash you know i could just say like we don't really know yet but that is a great point but there's so many of the bad quarterbacks who are kind of kirk-ish in the way that they could have like derrick carr can throw for 400 yards in a game he can suddenly be great kind out of nowhere another one that is also a swing player on the quarterback schedule is russell wilson in denver who i have no idea what to expect i just have such a tough time believing that he can go from looking like he did last year totally washed totally done to getting sean payton and then sprinkles magic uh water on him wasn't he hawking some concussion water one time remember

that no i don't yeah he was he was promoting some sort of water that was supposed to prevent concussions and that went away very quickly but it was a thing i i swear if we look it up i believe and it's extremely russell wilson the point just being that there's no way to turn back the hands of time. And I think that he just got banged up so much throughout his career that he hit the wall and fell off the side of the cliff and there's no coming back. But if there is, it's going to be under Sean Payton. Yeah, I think your way of looking at it makes a lot of sense. I think you could also sort of make an argument that like, don't know it's it's hard for me to believe and even though i watched a bunch of the broncos last year because they were on primetime a million times and they couldn't take them off

that like this guy that we watched for so many years be so good could just be become one of the worst quarterbacks in the league and stay that way and i guess that that just can happen sometimes with injuries and time and stuff but I'm anticipating that he's going to have some level of bounce back this year with Sean Payton I think the wide receivers are still pretty good Cortland Sutton Jerry Judy like it's still a pretty good defense you have the Vikings are going to Denver at altitude play a night game there like I'm anticipating that I think you're right that's an unknown because I think if you just go off last year you'd put Russell Wilson in the bad quarterback bucket.

But there's just so much track record before that that I don't know. It's like the inverse of Brock Purdy. Like I want to see it for one more year. If Russ is still watched this year, all right, we'll write him off. He's cooked. Broncos, good luck with all the money you have in him for the next four years or whatever and all the draft picks he gave away but yeah that to me you're right is that's another swing game where if he's if he's back to looking like even 75 percent of peak russ that game looks a lot tougher so every year on a related note the vikings have a meltdown game against the team they should easily beat.

Yep. And last year it was the Colts, but they came back and won. Still, still unacceptable. But there's always that game. There's the Bills game from 2018. There's the Bears game 2016. There's probably eight other Bears games historically that are this one. Lions team that hadn't won a game yet.

Yes, yes, yes. That's a great one. Who's that on this schedule? Oh, man. It's going to happen. Oh, absolutely. No avoiding it. Absolutely.

I don't see it being Tampa week one, but it could be. I agree with your point completely that you'd rather get Carolina and Bryce Young in week four than in week 14 because he's still going to be adjusting the NFL and that's still that roster is not very good I know they added like oh Adam Thielen and Miles Sanders and Hayden Hurst but um I don't think it'll be them I'm looking here the reason why it's hard is because you never see it coming you're right so I'm over it would probably be one of those two if I'm already saying right now that I don't see it coming. I mean, it would be classic for the Packers to be bad.

Like, let's say the Packers are 5-10 or 6-9 going into Week 17, New Year's Eve, Sunday night football, U.S. Bank Stadium, and the Vikings lay an egg there while competing with the Lions for the division or whatever. I don't know. For some reason, I feel like the Packers can't qualify for that because they're the Packers, and there's always something there in that rivalry. And even though I picked them to win both games against the Packers this year, I usually split. Even with Chicago, I had them split.

With Detroit, I have them split because it just that's how it works out most of the time yeah it's true unless someone's horrendous like they were last year with chicago i yeah i don't know there isn't an obvious one that jumps out to me which again yeah it you probably aren't going to see it coming i'd say the raiders would be a possibility for this i just don't see that team being that good. I mean, there's big-name talent there. There's Devontae Adams and Josh Jacobs and Max Crosby and a couple other guys. But the roster as a whole, I mean, no disrespect to Duke Shelley,

but the roster is not very good. So I could see that the Vikings going to Vegas for the first time in franchise history and just laying an egg there. Coming out of the bye as well, which maybe you get a little, I don't know, lethargic or rusty or something. Or maybe you're lethargic because of Vegas. Or, yeah, I don't know. Kevin O'Connell strikes me as a guy who's not going to mess around with any of that,

but you never know. Fly in on game day or something to Vegas. But, yeah, so. Tyler uriah said no gambling the best uh the best possible pick for this aside for i went denver because i just thought so they play new orleans at home the week before it's the fourth game after having uh two road games out of three so you go road, green Bay road, Atlanta, then back home, new Orleans.

So you could see them winning all of those games to lead up to it. And then talking about like, wow, we're rolling three in a row, big road games. And then it just kind of catches up with them. It's also close to the bi-week, which you always kind of raise an eyebrow or they have,

they've been grinding for a long time. I mean, with the bi-week being in week 13 that is a long grind for them to be able to take that week and get healthy so that's why i identified denver but the way this thing is set up if you lose to tampa bay oh my gosh we can be we for the next six it's bad eagles chargers the next six. It's bad. Eagles, Chargers, Chiefs, Niners. It's bad. Yeah. You cannot lose to Tampa, and you cannot lose to Carolina

because the other games are just really hard. I completely agree. And the thing about playing Tampa to start, I would say in comparison to, say, playing Green Bay last year, I don't like it at all because, first of all, the most random results of the year come in week one yeah so if you're playing a team that you should easily beat i mean i know there's not going to be um a monsoon like there was chicago and san francisco that was either week

one or week two last year but it's every year some complete garbage booty team beat someone good wasn't it like one of those 13 win packers teams lost by like 30 to the saints or yes the jaguars or someone james winston yeah they lost and last year joe burrow i think threw four picks in week one yeah these players they don't play in the preseason so they are not really at 100 ready to go you see some totally random results if you get on the wrong side of randomness to Tampa Bay, who does have Mike Evans, Chris Godwin against who at corner, not a lot of experience there. I mean, Baker Mayfield, if guys are wide open, can make throws.

And they have, they drafted Elijah Cansey. They have Vita Vea. This is not a joke team. The defense is, I mean, they went to the Super Bowl three years ago, and a lot of the pieces are still there defensively. Antoine Winfield, Jamel Dean, Levante David. Like, to me, it's just the reason it's the easiest game on the schedule on paper is just the quarterback position.

Yeah. And I don't really know about Todd Bowles as a head coach either. Oh, totally agree. Replacing Byron Leftwich with, I believe, Dave Canales, the longtime Seahawks assistant at offensive offensive coordinator, I think is a good thing. But, yeah, I think I may have cut you off here, but your point being when you open up against the Packers, it's like, all right, if we win, that'd be really cool,

but maybe that isn't the overwhelming expectation. Here it's like you have to win this game, and if you don't, that's kind of a disaster, and then the schedule just becomes an absolute gauntlet so there's pressure there you're right and and week one is weird and you haven't played very much and i mean justin jefferson went for 184 and two touchdowns last year in week one but yeah that that that feels to me like a game where if that's suddenly close in the third quarter that's gonna get really sweaty for because you can't call week one like a make or break or must

win but with the schedule after that it's about as close as it gets well and this is something that i had some people bring up when i was doing the w's and l's on the live stream is if this team were to lose the tampa and start out one in four one in five it's not easy remember in in 2020 where they started out one and five and they got that win in green bay when it was windy and everything then we looked forward and went oh here comes jacksonville here comes carolina here comes i think they lost the game to chicago that we kind of had written in as a game that they could win but there was a path to they can get back in this playoff race and that's why they didn't trade everybody under the sun they thought after that packers win well

we could reel off a couple w's and be right back in this thing there it is not that easy going to chicago we always know is tough san francisco green bay we don't really know but they still have kenny clark jair alexander that's not a joke they still have the grass that gets moist and slippery that caused the Vikings to lose partly uh that there's just there's just no real break there and I wonder how they would handle it if that happened yeah I'm curious as well because it's a team that I mean I look at it as that last year was a pretty brand new team, even though there was a lot of similarities with Kevin O'Connell and Kweisi taking over. It's kind of a new era.

This era has not really faced much adversity because they went 13-4. And, yes, they got hammered a couple times in the regular season, but, I mean, they were winning games, and the vibes were good, and they haven't had – I don't think they've had a losing streak ever under Kevin O'Connell. Lost two in a row. I don't believe so. No, I think that's right. So what happens if that – you lose week one,

then you go to Philly four days later. You probably lose that. You've got to come home against the chart. Like, what if you start 0-3? That's when the culture and all the collaboration, that gets put to the test right away, and that young defense has to mature really quickly. And the season wouldn't be lost in that situation, especially if Detroit doesn't start out too hot.

But that would be awfully interesting. I think you group it kind of first seven games here. Four of those are really tough. Three are maybe you should win. So maybe if you just can handle business and i know yeah going to chicago won't be a gimme or anything but if you can win those three games tampa carolina chicago steal one like maybe it's the chargers you could lose the philly kansas city and san francisco still be four and three and then the schedule on paper again opens up where

you go to green bay i just i don't know if that team's going to be very good i just jordan love i'm i'm skeptical until proven otherwise desmond ritter the following week home for new orleans that's yeah derrick carr has got some weird interceptions in them russ like you you could make a case where week eight to even the Raiders after the bye you have a chance of going five and one in those games like so if you can just kind of stay afloat early with those marquee games could start to get on a roll and then it sets up with the Cincy and and the three division games at the very end I think it's very important if they do stumble out of the gate to not get on a run in the middle of the season this year knowing what's at stake at the quarterback position it is important to not

get rolling through the middle part of the schedule i agree with you though the way that i picked it uh was for them to survive and advance in the beginning and then reel off a couple of wins in the middle of the schedule to kind of start off like four and four and then run off a couple of wins in the middle and then have a kind of 500 ending, which is what I wanted to ask you about the last section coming out of the buy. So the Vegas thing we're all excited about, it's going to be cool. But then you have the three of the final four games are against amazing offenses joe burrow jamar chase you know those guys detroit was the top five offense last year i don't see them not being a good offense unless they qualify as an amazing offense what do you think of playing

detroit then green bay then at detroit to end the season. I mean, it's weird. It's weird. Like, ever since last regular season ended, Detroit won eight of its last ten. We've been talking about, all right, assuming Aaron Rodgers is gone, which he is. It's official. I promise you.

He's in New York. For now. For now. Until he becomes a Viking. This season, he is a New York Jet. They're not playing him until the Super Bowl. It's been the Vikings and Lions. That's been the discussion. These are the two teams.

And you can't write off the Packers. You can't write off the Bears. But those are the two teams that, on paper, look like they're going to be duking it out for the NFC North this year. And then you just don't play them until Christmas Eve. Right. It's absurd. It sets up really dramatically where i hope that those records are are similar when that gate when those two games

like let it be decided in those two games if one team is able to sweep that they they deserve to win the division i mean obviously if the records are very different than that it won't completely come down to that but that's gonna be fun it's it's just it's bizarre but you get the home game the Vikings get get the first kind of round at home Christmas Eve then you have the Packers come you stay home Packers come next week and then man if the division's on the line in week 18 going to Ford Field like maybe you're a game ahead of the Lions but if they win they get the tiebreaker through i don't know conference record or common games or whatever that's that's going to be something because the vikings and lions have just i mean there were there was dominance for so many years

and years and years but the last few it seems like almost every game has come down to the very end like there was the the kj osborne touchdown year. I mean, the game in Detroit wasn't particularly close. The Vikings saw how good that Lions offense can be. There was the 0-10 Lions team with the Cameron Dantzler playing eight yards in the end zone and all these games. So it's weird, but it's a pretty juicy little storyline here that the NFL schedule makers cooked up. It is. And I do like it from the standpoint of the drama and the potential storylines, because I think that these teams are pretty close, that they both have really good offenses and Detroit's defense is much improved on paper. We'll see how that works out when it's actually implemented that if Aaron Glenn,

I believe still the defensive coordinator there, they didn't make a change. His first couple of years have been pretty rough. The personnel has as well, but how much he's going to be able to turn that around. They signed some free agents in the secondary Ben Johnson, offensive coordinator, right?

Who's yeah, which is big for them. Really good. So, I so i mean these these matchups and like you mentioned it's always entertaining with these two teams there's so many memorable games for a team that is wholly unmemorable the detroit lions the most one of the most unmemorable teams in sports yet at the same time the vikings games with I mean, was it 2016? You had Golden Tate flipping into the end zone. 2017, I think they played them maybe on Thanksgiving Day, and it was kind of a crazy game.

So there's always something going on with them. You mentioned a few of the other ones, which poor Xavier Woods got blamed for that game-winning touchdown that was really Cam Dantzler's fault, but I digress. So here's what I want. I don't know what you picked their record to be i want you to make a noise about what you think their record is just just any noise that you think would be descriptive of how you think they're going to do based on this schedule and i'll try to guess how many games you had for them winning okay okay uh i'm gonna say that hmm is kind of like you're not it doesn't sound like someone who believes that they're gonna win 13 again it's not what that noise

sounded i don't think anyone believes they're gonna win 13 again with this schedule i'm scientifically breaking down this noise okay okay? Let me do this. I'll let you cook. All right. So that did not sound like an angry or irritated voice or noise that would say you think they're going to win five. So I think we can narrow it down from there. Narrowing it down a ton here between five and 13.

We have 27 minutes until we have to be on that practice field. I will take 26 of them to break down this noise okay it it felt to me like an intrigued like like uh hmm like i'm not really sure about this because it could be swung on a lot of different factors which makes me think that that's close to the middle so i going to say you picked them to win nine. I like your process there. And you ended up just right in the middle, which is a reasonable guess, right at where Vegas has them.

I actually, and, you know, this may look stupid. I picked them to win 11 games. Oh, wow. Okay. It's a hot take. I don't know. Maybe it's just the offseason cycle where i start believing everything kevin o'connell says but i think the offense i just i really like replacing jordan addison replacing adam dean with jordan addison getting younger and quicker at the wide receiver

two position i think the josh oliver thing is is underrated for that offense in terms of what it'll do for their running game and i think the defense just, there's a lot of projection there, but I believe in Brian Flores schematically and just being aggressive and not sitting back 15 yards in off coverage on every play. And I just think that some of those like kind of young, unproven guys, whether it's rookies, Makai Blackman or Jay Ward, whoever, or more likely it's Brian Asamoah, it's whether it's rookies mckay blackman or jay ward whoever or more likely it's brian asamoah it's a caleb evans stays healthy with his new uh helmet that's fitted to his head

and um lewis scene manages to to stay healthy and looks like i think that there's there's enough there potentially to mix with the veterans harrison ph, Harrison Smith, Jordan Hicks, Byron Murphy, Marcus Davenport. If they have Zedaria Smith and Daniel Hunter, they were just rated as the best edge rusher group in the NFL. I don't think they'll have all three of those guys, but even if you have two of them, I just think this defense can get to 18th or something maybe or 20th.

And if you combine that with a potential top five offense, I think you pull an upset maybe against one of the really good teams here. You handle business. I can see them winning 11. I think 10 might have been the safer bet, but we're going 11 and 6 for now. I went with 4 iron down the fairway and went with 10 for that reason. But I think that I'm always looking at it and picking the schedule like expectations less than predictions because I'm so bad at predicting things. So is everybody else, which is why Vegas makes all that money and has those amazing hotels you guys are all going to stay in and everything else. Because gambling actually isn't usually a plus proposition.

So that's why I don't do it because I get too mad if I lose, but I always do it as kind of expectations. Should you be expected to win these games? I think 10 is a good bar for this team. If you get to 10, I won't think it's fair for anyone to go. Oh, you know, you lost three games from where you were last year Okay. Well, let's be honest about last year, right? But that means you're in the playoff race That means you're in the race for the division all the way through the season and you are playing in the playoffs Probably at the wild card But if anybody else falls off like detroit you might win your division at 10 wins or at 11 wins. Then there's

another discussion of, you can look at this thing as one of the inkblot tests and you can find a lot of scary stuff along the way. And we talked about the Tampa Bay situation and I've had a few people message me and say, I only see five or six wins on that schedule. It's like, you know, I can't tell you that you're completely wrong on that because if you don't win every game you're supposed to win, then it gets very dicey because you can't really make a great argument against Kansas city, Philadelphia. Like if you win those, that's great, but it's going to be very hard, you know, going to Cincinnati, playing Joe Burrow in December in his house. These, these are very, very difficult, uh,

parts of your schedule, and so is the end against Detroit, because if they are for real, then wow, you've got to end two games against Detroit. I think that there is a wider range of outcomes than I felt there was last year, because your points could all come to fruition, and Flores could turn this defense around.

There's a lot of new faces, but there's another outcome there where they are drafting in the top ten. Yeah, absolutely. I would not be shocked at all if this team somehow wins six or seven games because, yeah, there's a lot of unknown. The schedule is tough. We could have a whole different discussion about maybe that would be a better thing for the long-term future.

But to me, there's too much talent, and the schedule is tough, but it's not like – it's got a lot of high points, but overall, especially if you're not really sold on the division, I don't think the Packers or Bears are going to be that good. I don't think so either. We'll see. I think – I'm in baseball mode right now, watching a ton of baseball. I think this could be like the AL Central, where I'm not sold on Detroit becoming some power all of a sudden.

I think they're going to be good, but I think, I don't know. I need to see more there. Their draft was weird. To me, they're in the same boat where they're like a 10 and set. I think 10 wins could win this division um i agree so i i think i mean maybe even maybe even nine but probably 10 so i i don't know it's there is a wide range of outcomes i just maybe it's just off season mode i i think the vikings year two and kevin o'con offense, like I think he's going to grow as a play caller and they have the best wide receiver on the planet and two really good tackles,

which just kind of helps a lot. And I think for all the criticism, Kirk Cousins takes, he's going to keep you in most games. He'll probably have at least one game where he like throws four interceptions and plays you out of the game. But most of the time you're going to be in the games. And then the whole discussion is,

Oh, the regression is inevitable. Regression is inevitable. They went 11 and one and one score game. Yeah time you're going to be in the games and then the whole discussion is oh the regression is inevitable regression is inevitable they won 11 and one and one score game yeah you're right obviously that thank you that that's that's obvious but I do think there's something to being good on special teams being situational masters and the amount of time that they put into that each week and having a poised coach and a veteran quarterback and all these things where they probably win more one score games this year than they lose just based on certain factors like that not necessarily but i don't think it was totally completely 100 random that they won all those close games last year no it wasn't a big part of it they had to make the plays yeah they had to make the plays

and Patrick Peterson intercepting footballs is not random and Justin Jefferson making amazing catches it's not random like those are things that star players do for you and this team has enough star talent especially on the offensive side that and if they have their pass rushers that's the big question but they have enough star talent to be in every single game and they probably will be again this year i would expect a bunch of one score games that's how kirk cousins plays football he never puts anybody away but also never really lets anyone else put him away i just on a week-to-week basis you're always right there in most of these games so a lot of it does come down to do you make the 61 yard field goal do you get the interception do

other teams blunder at the biggest moments like that is usually what determines a viking schedule which is why it's fun to talk about these games and the ways that it could go either way because we've seen all sorts of results over the last five years that have been shocking losses victories that are totally unexplainable, like what happened in Buffalo or even Carolina a couple of years ago. I was reminded of how insane that game was at Carolina. It's never normal with this team. And that's what makes it so interesting and also difficult to try to project. Last question for you before we go watch the rookies. Let's say I had a million dollars. okay we're getting to the absurd yeah yeah

i'm glad and i said here's the thing so i well let's say i had 11 billion dollars so a million meant nothing to me okay and i could just make people do stuff for money for my own personal enjoyment so if i said will i'll give you a million dollars if you tattoo vikings versus one of the teams on the schedule across your chest but you can pick the team so you get to pick the other team's logo so you get the viking head versus and then on the other side of your chest who would you tattoo that was maybe the most absurd question you asked me on this show just like why would i do that like just i'm giving you one million dollars because you gave me yeah that's why you're doing it you're not turning me down are you that's true so i guess if it was that i would you could look at it two

ways you'd go all right i want a team that they're gonna beat because then it's like hey look at this random vikings victory i have much as or you you just want a cool logo so it is aesthetically pleasing. I think maybe the Vikings Eagles. Because in part I saw somebody tweeted this recently. The Eagles are the only

face logo that faces left. So then the logos will be facing each other. That's a factoid it is i had no idea totally random i did not think when i saw that tweet i was going to be using that on this podcast but if you if you look at the schedule and the logos you'll see all the logos face right including the vikings the eagles face left so then that would just look a little cooler i think than if you pick like the panthers or the Bears where both logos are facing right.

Okay. I would give you also... Plus, Eagle's logo just looks kind of cool. If you wanted to use the old school flying eagle as opposed to just the eagle head, I would also allow that if that's what you wanted to do. If you wanted to be completely ridiculous, the old Tampa Bay Bucks with the knife in the guy's mouth... Yeah, yeah yeah that's good my i didn't know throwback logos were eligible here yeah i uh well you could just do packers

for like the rivalry aspect but i'm also making up the rules here as we go along so it's you know the problem might come across with uh you know people in your life you you go to the pool or something like wait what's what's going on there. They're going to ask that question, which is why it's so funny. And I'm paying a million dollars for it, but especially with Packers, like, is this in reference to a specific Viking Packer game? Can you not decide? Do you have too many friends who are Packer fans just for the pure greatness of the logo and how it would look? I've whittled it down to, to a couple teams i mean i think that the vegas raiders though they have no mystique whatsoever as an actual franchise

their uniforms and their logos are possibly the best in all of sports it's just and that brings up a good point if you do the raiders or the chiefs you could say, remember Super Bowl whatever in the 1970s? Just a Super Bowl historian tattooing logos on my chest. What do you do with your life? He's a big fan of this Vikings Super Bowl loss in 1973. I think the Chargers and the 49ers are the other two that have a really great case here. Okay, yeah. Yeah.

If you put a Bengal bee on your chest, then you are a sociopath or the lions or saints logo or submit your answers at Purple Insider dot com. What a question. I think I'm still going Eagles. It's it's May. Yeah, we're going to there's going to be a lot that I'll top that bar. I'll top that bar by the end of the summer. That's true. Great discussion. Will, we got to run out to the practice field but uh appreciate it and of course you'll be making uh intermittent appearances here on the show as always so thank you for that and we've got a lot more to be determined in this off season so we will be here as always to cover it so thank you sir and uh don't tattoo football teams on your chests i won't okay take care everyone