Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - Will Ragatz talks us into J.J. McCarthy making an easy transition into QB1

Episode Date: April 3, 2025

Matthew Coller is joined by Bring Me The Sports' Will Ragatz to play a game of Talk Me Into, in which Will talks us into J.J. McCarthy transitioning into QB1 easily.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Hey, everybody, welcome to another episode of Purple Insider. Matthew Coller here. And look who's back on the show. Will Raggits of Si on Vikings. Sir, how have you been? You know, I reach out and say, well, when we come on the podcast and you're grinding and the twin season is starting so hard to get a hold of you. You're watching Wolves games,

but now we are here and well for a very special episode. I thought it's been way too long since we played a game of talk me into. So that is what you are here for Will Raggits. What is going on my friend? Doing well, glad to be back. Excited for some from talk me into it's been a little while and been a crazy Vikings off

season as we kind of projected coming in. And yeah, it's been good doing a lot of different things, doing Vikings, Timberwolves, Twins, little gophers and wild and all the Minnesota sports stuff. But yeah, glad to be here. Looking forward to the draft three weeks from today when we're recording this. The Vikings may or may not make a pick three weeks from tonight, but yeah, looking forward to it. Well, why don't we start with this? So you talked about the offseason, how crazy it was. I understand why you were so busy writing about all these moves

because they made a lot of them. And I was just poking around some other teams off seasons and even just looking at Detroit, for example, cause I'm going to do a podcast and not too long with what Detroit did this off season. It was like, not a lot. They kind of brought back a defensive tackle, signed DJ Reed. Then you look over at the Packers and they brought in a very expensive guard. And that was kind of it.

They got a corner. The bears did a lot. Here's my first talk me into talk me into the Vikings having the best off season of any team in the NFL thus far. Yeah. I think you can pretty easily do that with just the sheer volume of talent that they brought in. I mean, you look at some of the lists that people have put together of

the teams that have had the best offseason. Somebody did this a week or two ago, and the Vikings, I think, were number two or number three. And you had like the Lions up there, like you said, they basically just retained some of their guys and signed DJ Reid. And then you had like the Bills who just retained some of their guys and added maybe one notable guy who I'm forgetting right now. But the Vikings went out and they had the kind of offseason that like you have if you're running a Madden franchise, and you're just playing GM and going out like, Oh, I'm gonna sign Jonathan

Allen and Jayvon Hargrave, and then I'm gonna beef up the offensive line. And then I'm gonna trade sign Jonathan Allen and Jayvon Hargrave, and then I'm going to beef up the offensive line, and then I'm going to trade for Jordan Mason. And all these things that, during the start of free agency, I'll put out a tweet like, all right, who do you guys want the Vikings to sign? And the fans are always throwing these big names, and this happens every year. And most time I'm like, all right, let's be realistic. They'll maybe get a decent player or two. It's free agency. You you're not gonna go big name hunting. The Vikings traditionally like under Rick Spielman and I mean, even for the first few years

of Quasidofimensa, they didn't really do that a whole lot. It'd be like, oh, here's Josh Oliver. Like that makes sense. But this year they go out and they're like building this Pro Bowl Madden team by signing the two defensive tackles who I think are going to be very very good. It's what I've been asking for for a long time to add to this defense is pass rushing defensive tackles and now that they can they can do that and compliment Andrew Van

Ginkle and Jonathan Grenard. The offensive line I mean we've talked about that for years and years and years the guard position can he play? Will Fries can play guard. He said his tape for those first five weeks last year before getting hurt is legit stuff. And then, oh, by the way, we're also bringing in the center who just played with him for the last four years, who has a much higher floor and ceiling as a pass blocker than Garrett Bradbury.

And then again, Jordan Mason, I mean, Isaiah Rogers, we just heard Kevin O'Connell talking about how Brian Flores was leading the charge on Isaiah Rodgers. So I'm gonna just blindly trust that, that he's gonna be a really good player. And then some of the other depth moves that could potentially work out, Rondell Moore, Jeff Okuda, you bring in like Tavier Thomas

and Eric Wilson for special teams and Justin Skool to be your swing tackle. I think they had an incredible offseason. They went in with the cap space, with the advantage of JJ McCarthy's rookie contract, and they said, let's build out this roster and let's load it up. And they're not done. There's the draft. There's maybe some moves that they could be waiting until after the draft to make with their lingering cap space to not factor into the comp pick formula. But I think they've easily had the best off season

of any team in the NFL. You bring back Byron Murphy and Aaron Jones too. There's so many moves, it's hard to name all of them. But I think they have had absolutely the best off season in the NFL to set up a 22 year old quarterback to come in and hit the ground running. I think if you were making an argument around the league and looked at all 32 teams for who did the most, it's not close. One thing that I think maybe some other teams might debate,

if you said, I think the Vikings had the best off season in the NFL is what was the quality and the risk of the moves. And I think that it's, the risk is really spread out on a spectrum. The quality has the potential to be absolutely incredible. I mean, if Hargrave and Allen and Kelly and fries, these guys come back from their injuries and they play at even 80% of the level of their absolute peak. Uh, maybe not fries cause he's in his prime, but the guys who are past the traditional football prime of your late 20s, mid to late 20s,

then they can all be extremely effective players in roles and massive upgrades from what they had last year. If Ryan Kelly is the 10th best pass blocking center in the NFL, well, that's 30 spots higher from where Garrett Bradbury was last year. And if Jonathan Allen gets 35 quarterback pressures, then that's double what they got from Jonathan Bullard. And the same goes for a J von Hargrave. And then when you look at some of the depth moves,

these are maybe my favorites of the moves, because I think any team can kind of say, we're going to spend the most on the biggest names. But the Eric Wilson one, they have linebackers who get hurt because they play like badgers. I mean, Ivan Pace is crazy and Blake Cashman throws his body around

and it's part of their value, but also they get banged up. And last year they just didn't have an answer at backup linebacker and Josh Mattelis ends up having to do it. That was not ideal for them. And now they have a guy who could play 500 snaps if you need at above average play. And, and I liked the Isaiah Rogers move when it happened. I liked it even more when I heard that Brian Flores was the one pounding the table for it because that man knows how to pound the table for a guy.

And Kevin O'Connell at the owner's meetings was like, well, you know, I won't list the other guys cause I'm sure there's some that still play for other teams. We know one of them has long blonde hair and plays all over the place and made second team all pro last year. So I think we are in a position to say if Flores wants them, then I want them. Uh, those and Jordan Mason too, the smaller moves, I think were. It's, it's not always about the best players that you have, but sometimes

how you can replace them and what your weaknesses end up being. So if Aaron Jones is banged up, you can play Jordan Mason and Aaron Jones, when he averaged his highest yards per carry of his career, he only averaged 11 yard or 11 carries per game. And I think that's what you want him to be doing is averaging 10 to 12 carries a game and not 15 to 20 like he was last year. I don't know that there's other teams that made that many subtle and low key moves to really just take some glue and patch it over those little places that

they might be lacking in depth. So it just as an addition to the talk me into because I am talked into this. It's hard for me to come up with a team that did more and did more in quality. But just as an add-on to that, what did you have as your biggest or best decision that they made this offseason? That's tough to necessarily choose one. I think one thing I'll add on to what I was saying is like, to be clear, I don't think that you just rank teams off seasons by sorting on on over the cap.

Who spent the most money? I don't I don't think it's that by any means, because I think there's a lot of teams out there that gave out some strange contracts. I think the Aaron Banks one with the Packers kind of stands out as one of them. There's a few others for sure that you're maybe paying over market price or an inflated price based on this being unrestricted free agency, and especially if it was on day one or day

two. And to some degree, there's risk in the contracts that the Vikings gave out. I think they gave out a little bit more than I was expecting to like Jonathan Allen, who was coming off the injury. Will Fries got a lot of money. Again, you have to look at the actual structures and the guarantees of these things and not just three for 51 for Alan or five for 88 for fries or whatever the reported numbers at first are. There's some risk, but the Vikings are betting on their medical staff for one, Tyler Williams, and those guys keeping people healthy, which as O'Connell cited, they did with Aaron Jones

and Andrew Van Genkel last year. There's a track record of that. But yeah, I think the Vikings straddled the line well between, yes, spending a lot of money because you have the money to spend, but not just giving it out to whoever. And we'll see. I mean, maybe not all of the five or six biggest contracts probably won't age super well, but I think most of them are going to. And I think it's not devastating if one or two don't because of the rookie contract at quarterback. But to answer your question, if I'm picking one that the Vikings made, I think it's J.

Von Hargrave. It was my favorite when I was doing the grades on like the first five or so that they made on those first couple days. Because I mean, I guess you should look at them independently. But it's hard to look at the Hargrave one and not put it in the context of, wait, they just signed Jonathan Allen, they're signing Javon Hargrave too? Like, wait, what, what, we're going double two time Pro Bowl defensive tackles. And that was part of the reason why I love that is just go after something that was a weakness and really, really try to turn into a strength. That's what they did with the interior of both lines because they could have signed

Will Fries and then been content with running it back with Garrett Bradbury. But no, they got Ryan Kelly too. They could have signed Jonathan Allen and been like, all right, Allen, Harrison Phillips, maybe Jalen Redmond and Taki Taimani and these guys take a stab. No, let's go get Jayvon Hargrave who before last year, I mean, had a three year run where he was one of the best pass rushing defensive tackles in the NFL, like up there in sacks, not far off of guys like Chris Jones and Aaron Donald. And he is a fearsome dude like Chris Jones and Aaron Donald and he is a fearsome dude with his size, his burst, the moves that he has in his bag. I just think that's going to be so much fun for Brian Flores to deploy and the versatility it gives him, especially on passing downs, but these guys can play

on early downs too and you can mix in different fronts and the Hargrave one in part because it came right after the Allen one, I think is my favorite of the off season so far. And I think dollars wise, considering the guy's resume and quasi crazy. No, it's not at all. And quasi mentioned that sometimes when guys get banged up, that means that the next year they're going to be cheaper and you can get a deal. He's an exact example of that and his age is concerning. And I think if you are doing a counterpoint to any of these moves, you have to mention age and injuries. I don't on its face,

just accept that they have miracle workers. Like I think they have the best training staff in football, but I don't think that they walk on water. I mean, it's great that they were able to keep people healthy, and I think that their plans are awesome. And you were probably there the one time that Tyler Williams did a presentation for us. It was great. It was so interesting. At the same time, guys who are 30, 32 years old, and Ryan Kelly is one of them, and Hargrave is one of them, there is risk that comes along with it, but the guy's history is so good and we've seen

defensive tackles. Kaleus Campbell is the best example I could think of off the top of my head, but I think they age fairly well, especially if it's about the technical elements and not just their quickness or not just their speed. And I think Hargrave is really a technician in there. And so is Jonathan Allen. So both of them have a trickle down effect on the defense where they don't have to blitz all the time up the middle and they don't have to be as unpredictable as floor as is it is predictable when you have Jonathan Bullard and Jerry Tillery that you're

not going to create any pressure from that standpoint. My favorite move was the Byron Murphy resigning. When we initially got the dollar figure, it was phony. And I understand why it works that way. You got to get it out first with whatever the agent has told you the dollars are, but those dollars were not real. And it becomes actually a very reasonable contract for Byron Murphy. And he's a guy that I don't think gets enough credit

because he's not a shut down player. But Kevin O'Connell explained it extremely well at the owners meetings about, it is so much more complicated than that. When you're talking about this particular defense. And I also think it's worth mentioning that Byron Murphy has a great health track record and he's younger than some of the other guys who signed their contracts like Sharverius Ward and I think DJ Reid is maybe

even a year older than him too. You have somebody who is he called him a hub of communication which is just nowhere near as sexy as a shutdown corner but is so important in this defense flexibility, health, intelligence, and playmaking. As we saw from last year from Byron Murphy, I think that's he was the glue guy. And when he went out in 2023, they went from being a top what five to seven defense to not looking like they could stop anybody. So I've always kept that in the back of my mind as well. But what would I don't want to go entirely down the road here on all the free agents.

So what would you like me to talk you into? Well, the first one that I had, this is kind of leaning into what we've, what we've just talked about. The off season is part of it, I would say. I would say. And kind of leaning into some optimism at the moment, but talk me into JJ McCarthy hitting the ground running as Kevin O'Connell has said and being in the top 10 in passer rating this season. Well, one thing with JJ McCarthy that we saw in training camp last year, and I assume this is just part of how he's

been trained to play quarterback is I think he is much more willing to take what's underneath. And this is not a criticism. This is a style of play from JJ McCarthy that he is much more willing to drop back. It's not there right away. Deep. I'm going to check it down to the tight end. And we saw some very random tight ends and training camp have good days with

JJ McCarthy. And I think that that was part of it was that he was willing to get them the ball and get the ball out of his hands quickly. He was a playmaker and playmaker mentality, but I think that he sees the field underneath better than Sam Darnold. I think when Darnold dropped back, he was gonna hang on what he was supposed to hang on to as long as it took, and he was gonna get blasted

if that's what it took, and I have full and complete respect for the toughness of Sam Darnold, for getting whacked all last season and beat up with those linemen on the inside and so forth. But I don't think JJ McCarthy necessarily plays that same way. So if he has high completion percentage, high efficiency, even if he doesn't have the yards per attempt where he's hitting as many deep balls.

And I think that this opens things up for Kevin O'Connell to to go back to some of the Kirk cousins concepts of hey, here's a quick out like here. We just didn't see that a ton from Sam Darnold. When he did it, he was fairly efficient in doing it, but I think you kind of had to like make him do that and not just hunt explosives all the time. I think Aaron Jones could be in for even more receptions this year

as he kind of looks to that check down. And again, these are compliments of his playing style. I think he's going to get rid of the ball quite a bit quicker than Sam Darnold did. And that can add up to efficiency. The one thing that I'm curious about if it changes, because you asked about quarterback ratings, so then my stats brain starts to fire. Will they actually run inside the five? Because Sam Darnold's touchdown total, a lot of them were deep throws and awesome plays and everything else and some of them were we literally can't run

inside the 10-yard line so he has to throw it to someone to get in the end zone and that did pump up his touchdown total a little bit touchdown to interception ratio tends to really weigh heavily on quarterback rating so does he throw interceptions and make mistakes? The one preseason game we saw from him, it was phenomenal. We all agree. But also he did make a rookie mistake. And I think there will be rookie interceptions.

Top 10 is going to be hard to get into, I think in a super, super efficient league. But if he uses what's in front of him and Kevin O'Connell designs it a little bit differently to his skillset, then Sam Darnold, I believe that he can play very efficient, high completion percentage football and be in the top 10 in completion percentage. How about that? I like it.

Or in a QB rating, sorry. QB rating. Yeah, I could have just said, I guess, be a top 10 quarterback by consensus or most metrics, but I thought it was interesting to single out that specific stat that Sam Darnold did so well in last year. He was fifth or sixth and was in that top five all year in part because, like you said, the touchdowns were really consistently there.

So that'll be interesting. I think I like the way that you broke that down kind of statistically and looking at the efficiency and things I think I would have maybe mentioned just the sheer kind of Improvements around him and and what he's working with as as a general context like the dude has an unbelievable receiving core He's got a great tight end a couple tight ends, but a great receiving tight end as a security blanket He's got the upgraded offensive line. Yeah, there will have to be certain numbers that will have to reach to

get into that top 10 in specifically passer rating. But I just think he is coming into such a situation that is so set up well that if he's the guy that the Vikings think he is after the offseason he had last year, I think he's going to be able to put up some pretty efficient numbers. And you do make an interesting point with the underneath stuff. So we think he might be a little more Kirk Cousins-y than Sam Darnold, just in terms of going with the progressions and not being afraid to take the underneath route. And I think that that could be a good thing because there are a lot of a lot of fans will

I think remember that last year there were complaints at times from fans. And I think we noticed this too of like where are the underneath routes? I mean, it's it's third and seven and you've got all of these guys running down field and then the pocket breaks down and Sam Darnold's got to spin out of it and get sacked or has to try to scramble or whatever, where's the underneath option? I think there's a perfect world with J.J. McCarthy that maybe they reach this year or maybe this is down the line where you can really combine the best elements of Kirk Cousins and Sam Darnold and be able to hit the efficient underneath routes and pile up completions, but also be able to take

those shots and go after those explosives and utilize your Jordan Addison and Justin Jefferson weapons when the situations present themselves. So I think that's going to be really, really exciting to watch. I mean, as soon as even OTAs and training camp is just JJ McCarthy's, and training camp is just JJ McCarthy's, not only his general development and progression, but where is he at in terms of the aggressiveness and the kind of net yards per attempt thing. That's gonna be, I think, pretty interesting to follow all year.

Man, somebody said to me the other day, I'm really excited for Vikings OTAs. And I was like, you mean us going out and watching a single practice that they don't hit each other or wear pads? OK, I mean, look, I am too. I am too. But how about this spin on this? Because they have been deserving very much of praise

because they followed through with the plan and they didn't do the thing that we don't have to talk about anymore. Uh, and going to McCarthy, spending all the money. We all agree with it. We've been talking about it for so long, but how about spin me some, spin me some skepticism on McCarthy being the guy because Sam Darnold leaves 14 win quarterback, 35 touchdowns, great season, cross the board and the entire world, not just us, not just fans, but the

national media, everything else. I don't think I saw a single person say, shouldn't they keep that guy? I, because the way it ended, I mean, it just made it so easy for them and everybody else to go back to the regular plan. But what would talk me into being skeptical that JJ McCarthy can lead this team to a 10 plus win season, a playoff win, which is really what everybody's going to be focused on. And I'll just add this to it that my expectation for this team is that you get to the playoffs and you win there. I am not of the mode. Maybe this could be part of your discussion. I am not of the mode of like, well, it's JJ's first year. Let's just see what happens.

Like not when you just spent all that money and built this roster. You got to win. You got to do more than you did last year for me to for this to be a success. But, you know, I've been told that's a little harsh. So add that in with some healthy skepticism about the moving on from Darnold and into JJ McCarthy. Yeah, one of the things that I had written down was the over under that came out like last week was eight and a half wins. And I think there are compelling cases to be made for both the over and the under. So this is kind of me going with the under 8.5 wins in addition to

some McCarthy skepticism. And I don't think it's that difficult to do. A lot of the reverse and the over and the optimism has to do with kind of just pure faith in Kevin O'Connell. And I do think that that is also a compelling argument given the three-year track record. But this is a risk. It is absolutely a risk when Sam Darnold played the way that he did last season. And yes, that we know about the last two games, but the body of work that Sam Donald put together last season is not going to be easy to replicate. And to be very clear, I was in the camp all along of let him walk. I started to waver a little bit after week 16, week 17, Green Bay. But it's not that difficult because JJ McCarthy, we just haven't seen much. I

mean, he got injured last year after playing one preseason game. It wasn't even fully through training camp. The guy threw like a thousand fewer passes in college than the Bo Nixes and Michael Penick juniors. He just wasn't throwing the ball at a very high volume. And yes, he was efficient, and he did well on third downs and things like that that the Vikings will point to. But there's just not a huge sample there. And this guy is now, we're assuming that he starts week one, he's going to be almost two years removed from that national championship game, which will be his last really competitive start as a quarterback. And that's just a long time and that's a lot of uncertainty.

And so the Vikings are making a pretty big gamble here. And I'm not saying that I, that I disagree with the gamble, but I think it's fair to be skeptical until McCarthy goes out there and proves it because of the bar that Sam Darnold set. JJ McCarthy is not the same caliber of freak quarterback athlete that JJ, that Sam Darnell is. From a pure size perspective, from a having a howitzer of an arm, he is not quite, he's not Kirk Cousins or unathletic, but he is not Sam Darnell. And so I think that that's going to be an adjustment as well that I don't know that Jordan Addison will be seeing quite as many of those, you know,

Darnold rolls out and throws it 58 yards and Addison's there. Not that that was an every quarter thing in their offense last year, but there's going to be some differences. We need to see it from JJ McCarthy. He needs to, first of all, his his knee be good to go. But I think that is that's the main case that just the general uncertainty and the unknown of JJ McCarthy for under eight and a half wins by the Vikings this season. And then the other one that I will point to is just the schedule is a lot tougher than it was last year, you've got some good teams coming to US Bank Stadium. You've got some tricky road games. The home schedule is tougher, which almost is like, going on the road is inherently tough, but now we've got some really good teams coming to Minneapolis. So there's not a ton of gimme games on the schedule. And the Chicago Bears may no longer be in that category either with Ben Johnson and with your two Kayla Williams

and with some of the moves they've made made and then obviously we know about the Lions and the Packers like this It's not an easy schedule. So those would be kind of the two main arguments for The under eight and a half wins and of course there are arguments for it for the over as well But I think it is fair to have some some general skepticism going into this year Yeah, the interesting thing about there's a way to frame this of what would this have looked like if they brought Sam Darnold back as far as an offseason, what would they have been able to do? And I think the answer is probably one Jonathan Allen.

It's probably bring back Byron Murphy and Aaron Jones. And maybe you add Jordan Mason. But some of the other stuff would not have been able to happen. Uh, in the way that they structured their contracts allowed for next year for these cap hits to be much bigger because the salary cap is constantly going up. But realistically, you just would not have been able to get probably will fries. Maybe you get Ryan Kelly. Maybe you get Javon Hargrave instead of Jonathan Allen because he's cheaper.

I think they would have been able to get better, which maybe would have mitigated some of the Maybe you get Ryan Kelly. Maybe you get Jayvon Hargrave instead of Jonathan Allen, because he's cheaper. I think they would have been able to get better, which maybe would have mitigated some of the schedule issues and they could be a pretty competitive team. They chose the idea that you could massively improve the roster and deal with the uncertainty of the quarterback. Because what you're trying to do is insulate him so much with so much talent, so much blocking, so much running, so much receiving, so much coaching that it's almost like too good to fail as long as he stays healthy.

And I think knowing that he can run the offense and having seen it, it gives you a lot of confidence that that's going to work. But with that said, all those practices that we were impressed by, they were with the second team and we didn't see him take first team reps, I think. And Kevin O'Connell got annoyed at us counting reps, but I think it was less than five that he took with the first team throughout the entire off season last year. And when he played, uh, it was Sam Darnold who played against the Raiders

ones for a series and then they came out of the game and he threw wide open touchdowns to people who were playing against the backups of one of the worst teams in the NFL. And so if you're talking about healthy skepticism, like that's where it really is, is how much can we actually draw from that? Now you and I having seen, I'm sorry, Kellen Mond gets so many side swipes on this show. I feel bad. I feel like Mike Zimmer sometimes we've seen Kellen Mond gets so many side swipes on this show. I feel bad. I feel like Mike Zimmer. Sometimes we've seen Kellen Mond. We've seen Kyle Slaughter.

We've seen all these quarterbacks who were young and just could not practice effectively. It was way different with JJ McCarthy. This was a guy in command and control of the offense and has a moxie about him that I think his confidence will drive him through. But I also think it's very fair will to say if you think it's going control the offense and has a moxie about him that I think his confidence will drive him through. But I also think it's very fair will to say, if you think it's going to, if you thought Darnold was a roller coaster last year, which he kind of wasn't, it was

like maybe a couple of down games. And then he was just great. I mean, it could be a lot more inconsistent from week to week and a lot more times where you walk out going, uh, what just happened there? Because that's the nature of someone who has not, what was it with Bo Nix? Did he have a game where he had like minus four passing yards in the first half last year? That was a young quarterback who made the playoffs. Like that's just the nature of the beast. And I think people should prepare themselves for that, even though I think the bar is high and I think he could be very good. Yeah, I think there's going to be a lot of excitement for this season and I completely

get that with the offseason that they had. And I do think that the ceiling of this 2025 team is going to be pretty dang high with the coaching they have, with the roster they have, if JJ McCarthy is able to just go and just play well from the jump. But I think that there should, in the back of people's minds, as they get very excited, there should just be some, I don't know what the right word is, skepticism or caution or patience that maybe it's not going to be all sunshine and roses this year. And maybe it's going to be, there's some really good games

and there's some flashes of this is awesome. And then there's some moments where it's not going as smoothly. And those are the times when you don't wanna get too high and you don't wanna get too low as people like to say in sports. And that this is going to be a big developmental year. And that's why I think the eight and a half wins is fair.

Like last year when they came out with six and a half, I was like, I'm not a gambling guy, but that just felt too low to me for a team that had Kevin O'Connell and Brian Flores and Justin Jefferson and Christian Derris. Like no matter who was playing quarterback, and I get that the Sam Darnold thing was really an unknown given his past track record,

but eight and a half feels fair to me this year. It's higher than six and a half, obviously, and it's kind of like, are they gonna have a winning record or not? And I think that is a fair line to set. I still think you can make really compelling cases for both, but I just think that this could be, this could be some bumps and bruises for McCarthy as he learns and

as he plays in his first year. Maybe it's really great and it's almost a Jane Daniels type of year and they cruise to 12 wins in the playoffs or maybe it's really difficult. It'll probably be somewhere in between. And then 2026 will be a big year to kind of, you know, year two of him starting to hopefully have it be a little bit of a smoother, less, less bumpy ride in year two. I think that's very possible. The way I would phrase that is last year. So I would not gamble on the team that I cover. I think that's fundamentally wrong.

But I was I did say to maybe my wife at some point, should we just put like a lot of money on the over? Like I just cannot see this team. They just won seven games with Josh Dobbs, Jaren Hall, Nick Mullins. I feel like there's got to be a way they get to seven. You got to be bad. Remember the Tommy Devito Giants, I think, won six. So I did not do that, by the way, and I will not ever gamble on the team that I cover.

But this year I would not try it. I just wouldn't do it. Like at that number, I would be even though I think that the over is the clear play and I think the roster is as good as we've seen a roster since 2019. I don't want to call it the 2017 roster yet, but when you go position for position, maybe that's an article at some point. Like, it's not crazy when you consider the production of a lot of these guys to start talking about that good of

a roster that was able to take a case Keenum and we've seen now Sam Darnold case Keenum, her cousins have the best years of his career. Like this team, whether it was during Zimmer or now with the wide receivers, they have the defenses that they've brought back with Brian Flores. They have that ability to elevate quarterbacks and they should be in that mix with what they have. But I have a higher degree of concern that there will be too many bumpy moments

against too many very good teams to quite get to that level of being where we should expect them to be. How about this? Oh, well, actually it's your turn. Your turn, you go, you go. I'll talk you into something, go ahead. Okay, I know that this is something that you, I'm going to just kind of lob you up here because I know you've, you've written about this and,

and talked about this, but talk me into with the concerns that left guard and some maybe needs still on defense a little bit and the offensive roster, talk me into drafting a wide receiver in the first, in the first round in three weeks. Boy, this is in the first round, 24th overall or 28th or whatever. So you're not a golfer. And so you haven't seen me golf, but off the tee, I can pound it. I could crush that ball off the tee. That's what you just did.

You just took you just took my favorite vice golf ball. That's my brand of ball. Set it on my title is G2. Bang. Okay. This one is not that hard for me. And number one is at left guard. There's still free agents out there who are proven left guards

that they could bring in his competition for Blake Brando and see who wins it. And I think Brando deserves to be in a competition. So just for the record, I really like the idea of a left guard. I really like the idea of a corner. I really like the idea of Malachi Starks or Nick Imanuari. But the biggest part of the argument is everything that makes your quarterback better makes you a team people less want to

play against. And there's no better franchise to demonstrate that more wide receivers, more options, more weapons makes you more dangerous quarterback position. You even look at San Francisco when they were at their absolute best 2023 and how many different weapons Brock Purdy had to throw to that. Joanne Jennings dude was awesome as a wide receiver three. And if you're talking about bringing in an elite talent to go with two other elite talents, explain to me how you're stopping anything in this

passing game. And the reason I like a receiver too, is that it's a now and later. So now that player can contribute five to 600 yards and be a really effective dangerous weapon. If it's Luther Burton in the short game, he breaks a lot of tackles, stuff like that, that they've just not had. That's just not who Jalen Naylor is. But the biggest part to me is you don't draft a player for just today. You draft them for four to five years in the first round. And Jordan Addison is very soon going to be incredibly expensive And there's gonna be a question of whether you want to pay Jordan Addison

$30 million and I promise you it's 30 million dollars. I mean when you look at DK Metcalf last year He had 66 catches for under a thousand yards that sounds like pretty close production to Jordan Addison. And he also was angry and more banged up and got $32 million. It is the scarcest position to find in free agency and even the middling guys. So if you're gonna say,

oh, we'll replace wide receiver two later. Okay. But you're gonna have to spend another first round pick on it at some point. If you develop that guy, give yourself an option with that is and look if he's amazing then you find a way to pay him but. I think that it down the road it becomes that longer term rookie contract weapon to pair with justin jefferson and right now make sure you immediately better well that player can play and develop. makes you immediately better while that player can play and develop and doesn't have to be like the guy that most first round receivers end up being. But the thing that's going to always equate most to success in the NFL is the

performance of your quarterback. So anything you tell me, Hey, we got to do this to get the quarterback to be better. I'm like, yes, let's do it. And I think that when you look at the best passing games, and I did look at the best, I looked at the top five passing games last year and what their third wide receivers did, they caught a lot of passes. They had 60 to 70 targets. They had 50 catches.

They had five to 600 yards. Like that's a lot of production. And then if you added somebody who could be more of a weapon, you're just giving yourself more options at a time where you're trying to go chase the Superbowl. So that's, that's the whole spiel. You can find a left guard in free agency. You can find corners in free agency. As we saw, show me the wide receivers in free agency that were a good idea. Cooper cup.

The guy that hasn't played any football games the last two years, that's $15 million. So there's the whole deal. I like it. I am not opposed. I think if I were to make the argument for offensive line over receiver, it would be that Jaylen Naylor had a couple drops last year and I know people didn't love that.

He also caught six touchdown passes over 400 yards. I think he was perfectly fine as a wide receiver three behind one of the best if not the best one two duos in the NFL. And then they brought in Rondell Moore this offseason who I think could be really fun if his knee holds up. It's a big if after he missed all last year and he might miss some time in training camp Kevin O'Connell said. But I watched Rondell Moore play a lot as a freshman at Purdue in 2018 when I was at Northwestern and I thought he was going to be a superstar in the NFL. And clearly, I mean, other teams, even after he missed like the full next two years of

injuries, he was a second round pick. So I think he's got a chance to be fun. Tim Jones, if you haven't been a sicko following the Vikings off season, they signed him too. He's special teams, kind of depth receiver, Trent Sherfield kind of guy. I think you can be pretty much set at wide receiver this year.

And I don't know that you can feel the same way at left guard right now for, for all that Kevin O'Connell has said about, you know, Blake Brando and how he played next to Darasov versus next to Cam Robinson, that's a former sixth round pick tackle who you moved into guard and you're like, I hope this works. Um, and it sort of did with, he had put some good games early in the season. And then it just wasn't great from most of the year. It was kind of replacement level guard play. You can't by any means bank on Michael Juergens or Walter Rouser or any of these late round dart throws being an

option. I don't know that they have a left guard on the roster that is up to the standard of um, a left guard on the roster that is up to the standard of what you would want for JJ McCarthy's first season. Um, and I don't think that there is one out there either. They, I mean, Dalton Reisner and that caliber of guy, maybe, but there's also a reason why those guys are still out there and we're into April and why Dalton Reisner has consistently been available in later than April the past few years. So I think you could make a real argument. And I don't think you should draft for need. I don't think you should do, we're drafting Garrett Bradbury in 2019 because we need a center.

I think it should be best player available at a range of positions. But I think there's a real case that there's going to be that guy available to you at 24 a little later, whether it's Gray Zable, or whether it's Trevor Booker, or Tyler Booker is his name. Tyler Booker is an NBA journeyman. Tyler Booker, there's a few other offensive linemen out there. Like if you trade back into the second round, and you want to take one of these many tackles that you think can move into to play guard, there's a guy Jonah Savanaya from Arizona, there's a bunch of those. There's Donovan Jackson from Ohio State, he's more of a play guard. There's a guy Jonah Savanaya from Arizona. There's a bunch of those. There's Donovan Jackson from Ohio State. He's more of a true guard. But I think there's

a real case to be made that that helps JJ McCarthy more than adding one more weapon when you already have the weapons that you have. Because I think the offensive line, as we know, can be a weak link at times. So even if you have 80% Pro Bowl caliber dudes, which I think they do right now, two dudes who have made Pro Bowls, Christian Derrassa should definitely have made a Pro Bowl by now. I think he's just missed some games. Will Fries, I think, absolutely has that level. It can be a weak link spot. So if your left guard isn't playing well, teams can exploit that and they can run stunts and it makes life harder for Darasan and for Kelly.

And so I think there is a case to be made that that raises the floor, the offensive lineman in the draft raises the floor more than another receiver. But I also think it'd be really fun if they drafted Amika, Buka or Luther Burden or whoever, and just went out and routed teams to death. Well, and if you do draft a left guard,

then you have Darisondra contract long-term. I expect O'Neill to continue to play at a high level for at least several more seasons. You can have Will Fries for the next five seasons, depending on how things go. And then long-term, you're talking about replacing maybe one player on an offensive line that's really good. If you land that, I also think there's a great argument for safety where we know Harrison

Smith is probably down to the last year. This time they just lost a $60 million safety in can buy them and we all like Theo Jackson. But I mean, you're talking about huge expectations for the season. Are you going to throw him in there when he's basically never played outside of a handful of snaps versus maybe drafting Malachi Starks from Georgia, who's one of those kind of freak guys.

So I think that there are better cases for looking at the roster as it is constructed right now and saying, well, here's where the clear openings are. But I think if you look at the bigger picture of what can bring value to your quarterback and then down the road and hey, you mentioned Jalen Naylor last year of his contract. If Jalen Naylor catches 35 passes, this is this is a guy. This is a real guy. Thirty nine passes for 550 yards.

He's getting 10 million dollars. And the Vikings are not giving. That's to to at well. The Vikings are not giving him ten million dollars or what's probably going to be 12 to 14 next year. If somebody will go out and sign him as a third tier wide receiver. So immediately you're moving on from a guy in that I think is a very important position for a team that wants to throw the ball

600 times per year. And look, if it was Kevin Stefanski and they want to throw 400 times a year, I would look at it a little bit differently. But I think the argument is pretty sound, but I don't think that they buy my argument. I do think they buy it in the third round or in the fifth round. And there are some very good wide receivers there. How about this for you in the draft, the stick and pick, I've been more convinced recently of stick and pick. I wrote about it today. And one of the reasons I wrote about it was here's what I did. And if you didn't read the article, well yet read it while I'm talking.

So here's what I did. Uh, pro football reference has something called weighted approximate value, where it tries to put a single number on how much a player has been worth to their team. It's not a perfect metric, but it's good for stuff like this. So what I did was I looked at picks 15 through 25 and 40 through 50 and just compared them.

And 40 through 50 only made up 64% of the value of 15 through 20. So there was basically like 34% more or better value, more value, more value for the 15 to 25. The idea might be for the Vikings that game changers are the ones that win Super Bowls, not just dudes who you can find. They found a lot of dudes. They found your Isaiah Rogers, your Eric Wilson, etc. The Jordan Mason. These are just dudes.

These are not needle mover game changer types 15 through 25. The Vikings have drafted Darasaw Jefferson Addison. Those are game changers. I'm leaning toward that they stick and pick because I think this has been more along their philosophy since the debacle of 2022. So talk me into not only the stick and pick will, but which player you would stick and pick for. I I like the argument.

I get it for sure that those guys in the late first round, specifically there's some real good Vikings examples that you just named of how those guys can become real stars and difference makers. And that being the priority compared to moving back and ending up with six or seven picks and having a, you know, addressing a few more positions. the priority compared to moving back and ending up with six or seven picks and addressing

a few more positions. I think that there is a real argument for that. I think that the further you trade down, the more guys you are just inherently passing up that are stacked on your draft board and on everybody's draft board as being potential kind of blue chip first round talents. And in this draft, there are, there are going to be a lot of intriguing guys available to you when that 24th pick comes up.

This is hard for me to do, I don't know if you can tell, because I am of the trade down philosophy this year. But I think there's examples in the past, obviously, that Vikings fans can point to of trading down being a risk. They don't have the 12th pick this year like they did in 2022. But there's some of those same principles of, okay, let's maybe not miss out on a Kyle Hamilton and Trent McDuffie and end up with a Lewis Seen. And that's the extreme example, obviously, that should not be used as an end-all be-all against trading down. But I think, yeah, they are going to have, there's going to be safeties available at that spot. There's going to be offensive linemen available at that spot. There's going to be cornerbacks available at that spot. To me, I don't know. It's hard to just single out one guy,

but I will say I do really like Malachi Starks and you mentioned his name. I think that he is such a Brian Flores safety. He's a playmaker. He is so versatile. He is a very, very, very good football player that I think people might overthink. And I don't wanna even bring it up. But I know people will

say, Oh, don't draft to Georgia safety. Don't draft to Georgia safety. I just, I'm never going to care about that really, unless it's like a super scheme specific thing. I just think you should scout the player, you should not scout the helmet they're wearing. I think Nick Emmanwari is like more of the Lewis scene type of prospect anyway, if there's one guy to be a little concerned about because he's just the freak athlete who flies around and does everything, but it's not quite as clear if he's a really good football player the way I think it is with Malachi Starks. So that would be one that I think would be really, really fun. Another one I think would be Jaday Baron, the Texas corner if he's there at 24, because that dude can play in the nickel, he can play out wide. He is a really, really, really good football player and playmaker that I think would be

a fun addition to this defense. And then you can go position by position. Like if Kenneth Grant or Derek Harmon are there, you can have another defensive tackle because you just signed two guys that are over 30 and are only really on two-year contracts. Hargrave is on a two-year contract. Allen is on a three-year deal that only really on two-year contracts. Hargrave is on a two-year contract. Allen is on a three-year deal that's effectively a two-year deal. You could draft another defensive tackle and go all in on that and then think about the future there as well. You could draft, like I've said, a Gray Zabel or a Tyler Booker on the offensive line. If you

draft Zabel, by the way, he could replace Ryan Kelly as your center in a couple years and he can play tackle if really needed. He can do everything. So I think that those are some of the names that you're talking about being in the mix at 24. Maybe there's another guy who falls that you're not really expecting to fall, who you are going to be passing up to some degree if you trade down and especially if you trade down not from 24 to 29, but from 24 to like 42 and pick up a better a higher additional pick so I Think you can make you can make strong arguments for both but that would be the stick-and-pick

Philosophy that you outlined is go get a stud would be the stick and pick philosophy that you outlined is go get a stud, uh, who is going to help you go in a super bowl. And even think about this. So I totally believe, and I've talked to enough people who have confirmed this that 15 through 50 is strong in this draft and it's about as strong as it gets. The strongest draft in the last five years from fifth, from fifth from 40 to 50 is 2020. So that included like Antoine Winfield, Jr. Just for example, and there were a couple other players who were really good in there.

It still was as valuable as 15 through 25. There was no year that I looked at that had more value from 40 to 50 than 15 through 25. So it's clear the farther away you get from the top, the less likely you are to grab an elite talent. That doesn't mean that a Debo Samuel or a Brandt or a Antoine Winfield Jr. doesn't end up in the second round. It does happen, but your odds of getting that guy just go down. And what I like about Starks, maybe I'll do this at some point for a show, just like my stick and pick guys. But what I like about Starks is if you can draft the number one player, it is position in the entire draft anywhere you pick. That's really good for you.

That means of all human beings who played the safety position, you get the best one in the entire draft that's available. Usually, if you're drafting a tackle at that point or something, you're getting the fourth one, the entire draft that's available. Usually if you're drafting a tackle at that point or something, you're getting the fourth one, the fifth one that everybody else said, no, we don't think he's as good, but the safety or the guard position, you're probably getting the best of the best. All right. Just last thing. Last talk me into will unless you had more for me. You good?

I mean, we have a longer podcast was going to happen here. No, I just think the inverse of what I was just talking about. I think the big point and you brought it up. I was going to mention it is that this draft class everybody says this is deep like there isn't a huge difference on paper in the player. You'll take 20th and the player that will be taken 50th and there will be some difference obviously But I think more than other years this the second round could have a lot of studs and the third round Could have a lot of studs. So the argument for trading down is just you don't have any picks right now

You've got you have four picks. You have currently like a 70 pick gap between your pick your first pick and your second pick. And it's if you can find a way to get another top 101 while moving down and get another swing at this. That could have more net value if you're able to find two awesome contributors. Granted, then there is the reverse argument, of course, that we just talked about is what's the difference between two strong contributors and one like real star? But I think in a draft that isn't... the draft never has sure things. A deep draft moving down and getting a couple more swings and then you can get

a top, you can get a corner in the top 100 and you can add a guard in the top 100 and you can add a safety or a defensive tackle. You can do all those things in the top 100. That gives you a really high ceiling if even two of your first three picks really hit. So that is why I think that that is what's going to happen. Provided, I bet there will be a list of like, three, four or five guys, obviously, a bunch of guys before that who are just almost locks to go. But three, four or five guys who if they fall, and if they make it to 24, that's the pick. If that doesn't happen, and it probably won't, then I think trade down is probably going to be the option because I think there's going to be so many other guys on their board

that they're like, we can move down five, six, 10, 12 spots and still get one of these guys that we really, really like. And then get the additional draft capital that comes with it. So that's why I think trade down think trade down is what they should do. And I think it is what they will do. But I also I also very much understand the other argument. I decided I'm planning my flag. I'm planning the stick and pick flag. It can pick. I think it I think it matches up with what they did last year and with Jordan Addison.

So the last thing was you are a guy who loves every player on the roster, knowing every detail, knowing, going deep into the weeds on every undrafted free agent, all that sort of stuff. So I want you to tell me a guy deep on the roster who we're not talking about at all because there's so much focus on what they've added and everything else deep on the roster who you are saying. Don't forget about this guy.

Maybe even don't sleep on this guy. A phrase that I have not used in some time, but I feel like I need to bring back. Talk me into not sleeping on a guy. Oh, that is that's so good. I'm I've just pulled up my my depth chart here that I've been using. I'm trying to decide how deep I should go on this. So deep as you want. It's there's no consequences.

What day is today? It's April 3rd, so there's no consequences here. It's also 54 minutes into the show. So if people have made it to this point and they hear this and you, but if you're right, we can always clip it and go back and be like, wow, we'll call it. Yeah, I am going to go very deep. I was, I was looking at like a Gabriel Murphy, but I don't think that that's not deep enough. We talked about him last year.

He was, he was a big, he was a big undrafted free agent last year. That that's not, I'm going with a cornerback that they signed to a futures deal earlier this year by the name of Ambry Thomas, the former San Francisco 49ers third round draft pick out of Michigan, who has played in some games and he has done some good things and he is not, he didn't really live up to his draft capital obviously which is why he ended up being just kind of a practice squad, future signing type of guy. But the tools I think are still there to some degree and I think the Vikings corner back room is open enough that there is a path there for somebody unexpected to emerge. I think if you pencil in right now, your starters are Byron Murphy Jr., obviously, Isaiah Rogers, and probably Mackay Blackman.

And then that next tier would be, you know, Jeff Okuda and Dwight McLethan. And Tavier Thomas is a special teams guy who's played some nickel. But I think there's a path there for somebody to come up from kind of the bottom of the barrel or the bottom of the roster, make the team and have a real role at that position just because I don't, Mackay Blackman is not that proven. Isaiah Rogers isn't that proven jeff okuda certainly is just a flyer So I think you know ambry thomas. That's that's my real deep cut guy That's I don't I this I'm struggling to do this But I wanted to go very very deep down the roster for that one on brand very much on brand will I will throw out there?

Don't sleep on Jay Ward for this year. I know that's a draft pick, so it's not as deep as every Thomas, but no, that is. That's a more like real one, though, but it's a real one. And he has followed the path of. Middle round pick, we never hear a thing from him. I didn't know that Josh Mattel was making the Vikings roster when Ed Donatelle and Kevin O'Connell took over and now he's a star player. We've seen this happen multiple times, mid round pick.

We never hear a thing from him. They emerge, uh, as a depth player and then all of a sudden we're going, wait a minute, Josh Mattelis is getting first team reps like every day. What's going on here? Tapping enough times that Jay Ward could be the next one. So. Unless they draft Melchizedek and then J Ward ain't playing nothing. But anyway, for now, don't sleep on that. So don't sleep on Si on Vikings, which is where you do your writing over it is it is it is Vikings on SI. I will say I'm sorry.

Si on Vikings, Vikings on SI. I will say I'm sorry. Si on Vikings Vikings on SI. Bring me the news. It's a convoluted world out there. Sorry about that Vikings on SI. My apologies. Well, right. I timber wolves on SI gophers. I don't really do any go for you want to keep going. Bring me the news. Right. And writing mostly Vikings and Timberwolves and Twins. That's where you can find me typing away these days. And Wolf's Clash, Wolf's Clash are coming up. Any other teams you want to mention? I think those are...

I mean, the links on SI. The links are starting in like a month. I know you're excited about that and we're going to cover that as well. So yeah, looking forward to it all and looking forward to this draft here in about three weeks. Dine high school on SI just, you know, not on SI, but if the bring me the news, we cover all the Minnesota sports that doesn't fall into those those main umbrella. So if if you die in high school wins the state championship, which they didn't this year, then that would be covered.

But some random kids playing in a park on SI. OK, we'll stop. That's enough. That's enough. You need to keep keep this 15 seconds underneath an hour. So I know. Thank you so much, Will. Great to get together with you again. And we'll get you out there playing some golf this year. I think. Thanks. Will football. Say football. It's been a while.