Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - Will the salary cap increase impact Justin Jefferson negotiations?

Episode Date: February 26, 2024

Matthew Coller talks about the salary cap increase's impact on Justin Jefferson and then talks about the arguments for trading him not going away. Plus talking Michael Penix Jr. heading into Indy, whether the Vikings are properly executing their plan and whether it's a good idea to pick another position at No. 11 and trade back up for a QB Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Hey everybody, welcome to another episode of Purple Insider. Matthew Collar here, and this is a fans-only episode where I answer all the emails and direct messages that you guys have sent me over the last couple of days, and we'll continue to do a lot of these episodes, though, upcoming over the next week. It'll be a lot of content from Indianapolis. I will be there Tuesday through Thursday. We've got the Vikings brass at the podium. We've got the Vikings brass

sitting down with beat reporters such as myself, and it will be a very good time with lots and lots of guests on the list to show up here on Purple Insider. So I'm super excited about it, but I've gotten a lot of your emails and your direct messages. So before I head out to Indy, wanted to make sure that I touch on what is on your guys' minds. So we'll just jump right into it.

And yeah, there was some, you know, story about the salary cap, which we'll get into. And the rumors are afloat now about Justin Jefferson. lots of questions about that naturally and hey there's a quarterback decision still to be made isn't that interesting so let's get right into what's on everybody's mind the first question comes from Jimma Jim AAA on Twitter says with the salary cap increase now it becomes easier to make Jefferson the most

highly paid non-quarterback I don't think that the salary increase actually changes a whole lot for anybody about anything except for maybe some free agents that normally would not have gotten paid a whole heck of a lot will get paid more than they would have because teams have more salary cap space to work with. And if you're a team that feels like it's right on the cusp, then go out and pay that wide receiver a few extra dollars. I don't know how much it changes Justin Jefferson or Kirk Cousins' situation. I got a lot of messages over the weekend about, like, does this mean Kirk's coming back? This means it balances out Kirk's dead cap. So now

he can leave. And with Jefferson, this has been the main takeaway that now it hurts a lot less. But then on the other side of things, saw Mike Florio say, well, actually, this means that Jefferson's going to cost a lot more money. And well, the league did have a surprising amount of extra cap space come its way. I have a really tough time thinking that internally, all of a sudden teams went, wait a minute, they're giving us 10 more million than we thought. Let's go crazy. Everything's different. I really don't think that's going to be true. Though, if you're Justin Jefferson, here's how you probably look at it now. It's closer to a percentage of the cap rather than just going entirely by the most recent contracts,

because the most recent contracts were done when the salary cap was lower. So I have often referenced the AJ Brown contract, which came along with $56 million fully guaranteed, which is the most important number, by the way. When you see that deal, you're going to hear guaranteed and fully guaranteed. Those are two different things. Fully guaranteed is the number that matters the absolute most. And the average annual value is nice, but really the number that matters the absolute most and the average annual value is nice but really the thing that truly matters the most is the salary cap hits from year to year

and how flexible they can be with those cap hits down the road can they restructure and so forth can they make changes uh to the salary cap hit as they go forward within that contract, which is why traditionally the Vikings have tried to have five-year contracts because the longer the deal, the more you spread it out, the more you can adjust as you go along. I don't think Justin Jefferson is going to go for a five-year contract. I have long thought that his side wants to go shorter. There is some talk of a fully guaranteed contract. I guess he could try to take that swing. I would

be very, very surprised if the Minnesota Vikings were willing to do something like that. But from his perspective, he also has to think about it. If he's 25 years old and he's playing through his prime, then he's more likely than not going to make most of that contract, right? So if it's 120 with 75 fully guaranteed, pretty good chance that he makes 120 because of his age. And that does happen. But the fully guaranteed means if your career ended tomorrow you still have that money in your pocket and that's usually what people negotiate off of and they often use the franchise tag to try to figure that out if you were to franchise tag a player twice then how much would that add up to then you go on top of that that's the fully guaranteed money there's

different ways to negotiate those things but i've understood that that's one of the ways they do it as far as determining that number. But he's going to blow everybody else out of the water. But yeah, so the thing about that is that there's these two different ways to look at it, which is one, the price went up, and the other, now he's affordable. And both of them i guess are true i never thought he was unaffordable at any point just looking at the way teams structure contracts

for players in general i've always thought that they could work out a deal with jefferson and build in the future by drafting a quarterback and then continuing to reshape that deal as you went forward if you have to if you're good enough and draft other great players and woo other great free agents then that will fall under the good problems to have eventually where you're in a winning window and you've got to do something where you're pushing money like Tampa Bay did like New Orleans did with their salary caps when they had Drew Brees or Tom Brady. So that's not exactly what you're saying.

I guess you're asking then where I stand in particular on this, right? And that is that the Jefferson price is going to be higher, but because if he goes by percentage of the salary cap, then he's going to look at it and go, all right, well, the highest paid receivers make up, let's just say, 8% of the salary cap. All right, well, that's a starting point for our number. And maybe he wants a particular structure because he has done things that nobody else has done. He is far and away the leader in yards per game in terms of receiving.

He's going to want the big money, and it's going to increase because the salary cap increased, but not so much that it fundamentally changes anything. And the conversation about trade rumors and could they potentially move him for a bunch of draft picks instead of deciding to extend him. I am not going to change my position on that. Even if they did it, I wouldn't change my position on that. I don't think it's a good idea. I think that wide receivers are driving a ton of success in the NFL. And if you want your quarterback to succeed, you give him everything you can possibly give him. You do not take away. And if you give me the Chiefs example,

I'll say, great. I would trade Jefferson for Patrick Mahomes. One for one. Let's do it. Are the Chiefs offering? If they are, then I'll take it. That'd be fantastic. Any other quarterback? I don't know about that. I think most of the time quarterbacks are, if they're capable and they meet a certain threshold especially if they're on their rookie contract then what's around them will ultimately be the determining factor so do you have the most open and successful wide receiver in the league that helps can you block for him all right let's keep derisaw around too i don't think the way to have a successful quarterback is to take away from them and by the way and, and I know they won the Super Bowl, but just go take a look at Patrick Mahomes

stats with Tyree Killen without because everybody loves this example. Well, hey, they moved on from Tyree Killen, won the Super Bowl. Totally true. And they have the greatest quarterback and a great team and a great coach and a great defensive coordinator. And they drafted well and all those things but their offense overall was not as much of a juggernaut as it was with Tyree Kill they were just the rare exception that was able to overcome it which leads to our next question from Ryan why do so many Vikings fans want to trade the best wide receiver to draft a quarterback who has a 50% bust rate?

So every quarterback who comes into the league has a different bust rate. Now, overall, it averages out to 50% and maybe even less than that. And that's what you wrote is like less than 50% or maybe you wrote more, more than 50% bus rate. So yeah. And that's right. Is that there's sort of levels to that where your chances of getting Patrick Mahomes might be one in 10 or less, but we'll just categorize him with a, uh, a Josh Allen, a Joe Burrow, one in 10, one in 15 to get someone who can be a super Bowl year after year type of quarterback. But your chances to get a quarterback that gives you a chance in a window, your Jalen Hurts level quarterback, is probably a coin flip. And what is it that's going to determine if that coin flip hits or not?

If you drop a Jalen Hurts, a flawed but very talented quarterback, into the best situation in football with Philadelphia, great receivers, great tight end, great offensive line, and before Shane Steichen left, great offensive coordinator, you drop him into that situation, you are three points away from beating the Kansas City Chiefs in the Super Bowl. Or if you take a Brock Purdy, give him two great receivers, great tight end, best left tackle in football, and a great coach, and you are in overtime in the Super Bowl. And I guess if you want to say, oh They had great wide receivers. And they could toss in Cunningham. They could toss in George. They could have Culpepper go to the NFC Championship with great wide receivers. Not that I'm saying that they're the only thing that drives any success and that there

aren't any other wide receivers, but you've got the best one. And the best one is going to give you a better than 50% chance that your quarterback succeeds. And honestly, do we think that Kirk Cousins success over his career had nothing to do with great wide receivers? I think that a lot of it did. And guess who would tell you that Kirk Cousins, he would point out that he had great receivers in Washington when he took over Deshaun Jackson, Pierre Garcon, two great tight ends, Trent Williams. And then this group here, Stefan Diggs, Adam Thielen, Justin Jefferson. You've seen it right in front of your eyes what great wide receivers for the whole history of this franchise can do for quarterbacks. So that's why it does shock me. And as far as drafting a

quarterback, sometimes you could give them everything and it just doesn't work. Like Zach Wilson has, you know, Garrett Wilson, and that doesn't make a whole lot of a difference. So then there's that level of a draft pick as well. There's kind of the Baker Mayfield that could have worked out maybe in Cleveland had the situation been right. And then there's the, this guy could never work out no matter what you do. And how do we know which is going to fall into which category? We don't. So you're going to give away the generation's best receiver of the moment for a chance to draft someone who you are going to very likely have to pair with a great wide receiver to

succeed. And then there's even a chance that they won't succeed at all. I can't make that work in my brain. I'd rather just have the best receiver. That's what I would do. And we move on to one more question at the moment on this, which is something that comes up all the time and makes me wonder if anybody's been watching football recently. This comes from Andreas. A Jefferson payday will be with another team. Having the highest paid wide receiver will

not get you to a Super Bowl, much less win one. Remember Kelvin Johnson, aka Megatron from Detroit. No rings. Well, all right, let's go through it. Let's go through the highest paid receivers in the league. Tyreek Hill is the highest paid receiver in the league. His offense was number one in passing this year. So that's one place to start. Tyreek Hill also has a Super Bowl ring. Do we remember that in the biggest moment against San Francisco in 2019, who was it that Patrick Mahomes threw the ball to?

Tyreek Hill. Yes, he threw it to Tyree Kill. So there's a ring. Does have that. Let's move down the list. Devontae Adams. Did he have good offense as well with the Green Bay Packers? Yes, Aaron Rodgers.

But his quarterback won MVPs. They were in the NFC Championship game. Consistently in the playoffs, 13 wins. I'm going to say that that was pretty good. Did Aaron Rodgers perform the same after Adams left? No, he did not. Let's go to the next one. Cooper Cup. Put it on his finger. He's got a ring. In fact, in the biggest moment of the game, Matthew Stafford drops back against the Cincinnati Bengals, looks over here, throws over there to whom? Cooper Cup. Who did he throw to at the goal line to win

the game Cooper Cup yep all right A.J. Brown he was in the Super Bowl last year Stefan Diggs next on the list of highest paid receivers so here's our top five Diggs has won the division four times look at Josh Allen's stats before and after. And the only reason that he hasn't made a Super Bowl is that the greatest quarterback to exist, maybe ever since this planet started spinning around, plays in the AFC and keeps beating them in the playoffs. So that seems to matter. Hey, when were the Vikings last in the NFC Championship? Who was their receiver?

Oh, Stephon Diggs. That's right. So, you know, and not only that, but if we continue to go down the list, so there's DK Metcalf, whose team has had some success, but Debo Samuel is next. What team is he on?

The team that went to the Super Bowl just the other day. So you're not doing very well with this conversation. I mean, even go back. Let's go back. Because I just want this to never be mentioned ever again on the show. And when did Megatron last play?

What? It's been a long time, man. So let's even go back a little bit farther. I mean, you know, the Rams the first time. Great wide receivers on that team. The Philadelphia Eagles, when they won in 2017, had multiple very, very good receivers. Now they didn't have one of the highest paid, but they had a whole group and a great tight end and a great offensive line as well. Supporting casts all abound. I mean, you've got to go back some

ways to support this take. And it's just one of the worst takes I think I've ever heard. If you've watched any football recently, like when was this a take? Randy Moss was in the Super Bowl. Terrell Owens was in the Super Bowl. Jerry Rice won a bunch of Super Bowls. And I don't even think it's right to do things by Super Bowl wins. It's just the most preposterous way to look at it. One receiver, Kelvin Johnson, did not have a lot of success

with the absolute worst franchise of an entire decade. Two decades. Okay. I mean, no. No one thinks that a receiver can do it themselves. That is true. No one thinks that. No one thinks that a receiver can throw the ball to themselves. That's true. So hopefully we've moved on from this, that this isn't a thing we have to talk about, whether you can win with it, whether somehow a great receiver is bad for you. That's a very bizarre. It really comes down to, can I help you? Let me help you.

If you want to make this argument, you don't do it like that. Receiver bad. The way that you do it is you would say, look, if you compare three first round draft picks, let's just say, or two first rounders, two seconds and the amount of money that it will cost for all of those players for four or five years, depending on if it's a first or second rounder, versus all the needs that the Vikings have, it adds up to more than one player. And that is your argument. Now, where I have trouble with this argument is, but you have to hit on those draft picks. If you take Mike Hughes or Louis Seen, it doesn't work. Like, you've got to get that guy and you could say, well, look, we've drafted Jordan Addison and Justin Jefferson, just draft another wide receiver.

But what if you take Jalen Rager instead of Justin Jefferson, and then you are just up the Creek and you've lost the greatest wide receiver. Why would we do this? I don't, I, in a place that is seen its greatest players leave and do better things in other places like kevin garnett like randy moss going 17 and 0 and setting the touchdown receiving record why would you want to have more of that torture that's what i don't quite understand i think what's happening here is there are two ways of looking at this

for people who bring up the idea of moving on from Jefferson. Reason number one is you are just preparing yourself for it to happen, that you've seen so many bad things happen in Minnesota sports with players who are successful leaving or not winning championships despite great careers, that you're already worked up into a like i'm just gonna get mad at him so when he leaves i'm fine with it or i can justify it to myself that's one way uh or maybe you watch moneyball too many times and you've you've gotten way too way too deep into front office mode on mad no i think, I think that the other part is just people don't like it when somebody negotiates their contract.

They never do in any city, any fan base ever. It's always, this guy's greedy, he's a diva, he wants too much money, and then he signs his contract and you either never worried about it again because he's great, or if he has any injuries, any bad season, then you throw it back in his face we're paying you this much money and you did this it's a tough game out there now i don't have sympathy because justin jefferson's going to be very rich but i it's hard to win when your contract comes up in the league per the cba it's hard for the player to win it's hard for

them to to ever live up to it because if you don't win a Super Bowl over the length of his contract, then that guy's going to come back and go, see, I told you we weren't going to win the Super Bowl. And it's like, well, you never win the Super Bowl. So what do you want me to tell you? Don't get rid of great players. Because the last time I watched the Super Bowl,

which was literally every single Super Bowl ever, not from when I was alive, they've always had great players. They've always had Hall of Famers. They always have the best of the best. They usually don't have just a bunch of guys who you drafted and hoped on. So, hey, if you could tell me that you could trade him for a player of similar value or two or three players that would add up to similar value, I'd say, okay, I understand it. If you're going to get me 15 sacks out of an edge rusher and another wide receiver, okay, we can talk, but you can't guarantee those things trading them for

picks. I can pretty well guarantee you Justin Jefferson will continue to be good. All right, no more of that. That's out there. And that's something we're watching for at the combine for sure. When I write the article, what are we watching for at the combine for tomorrow? It's going to be in there. Any Justin Jefferson rumors, but now I'm seeing other content creators post on their YouTubes. Should our team go after Justin Jefferson? I like this, this just, what, what are we doing here? What are we doing here? I feel like I'm taking crazy pills. Doesn't make any sense to move on from Justin Jefferson. If they do, they're insane. Folks, have you ever heard of test driving a phone network?

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Great sound effects there. Test drive, U.S. Cellular's award-winning network for 30 days. U.S. Cellular, built for us. Terms apply. Awards based on OpenSignal independent data. Visit uscellular.com for details. All right. From Garrett, are all the fans who want the team to move on from kirk undervaluing just how much koc needs a particular level of quarterback with specific intangibles to run

his offense i mean it's not really about. What it's about is how much it costs and what likelihood there is of Cousins playing above the level that he's played before. Above the level. Because if he plays at the level, that doesn't get you anywhere. We know that. We've seen that. There's a career of that. So can you tell me that it's going to work to pay him whatever number of dollars and then he's going to be healthy as a 36 year old who's coming off Achilles injury. And then he's going to play above what he's played before because the other parts are not going to be better. He's always had good wide receivers. The blocking is good, but the offensive line is not flawless and is unlikely to be. The defensive roster is desolate going into free agency. And even if you fill those spots, if one of those free agents gets hurt or doesn't work out, what happens? You have a Marcus Davenport type of situation or a Michael Pierce type of situation. It's really about, can you go deep in the playoffs with this quarterback and his price tag?

And the answer so far in his entire career up to the age of 36 next year has been no. So it's not in my mind, and you're not asking mine, but let me get this out first. But it's not about whether KOC needs a specific type of quarterback that has to be 36 years old and for some reason has to be kirk i i don't look at that as really a factor at all if he can't shape his offense to another quarterback then get another coach and look kyle shanahan is the best, right? We all think Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay are the best. That's what they were aiming for when they hired Kevin O'Connell,

correct? Is that style of coach? Well, let's have a look at those guys. Jared Goff and Matthew Stafford went to the Super Bowl with Sean McVay. Jimmy Garoppolo was in the Superbowl NFC championship and Brock Purdy NFC championship Superbowl. Was that the exact same offense for all those quarterbacks with the best coaches? No, it wasn't. They changed it. They shifted it. They shaped it to what their quarterback needs. Does every coach prefer a quarterback with the mind of Kirk Cousins? Yeah. And if you could take it and put it inside Cam Newton's body, you'd have Patrick Mahomes or John Elway or something. Right.

But you can't. That's not how it works. Is it preferable to him to be able to get to the line of scrimmage, identify stuff, execute it, throw to the right places, go through the reads, do that whole thing? Of course. Of course, of course it is. But any idea that this man could not possibly succeed without cousins as his quarterback is wild to me. If that's what, if that's what Kevin O'Connell thinks, I don't know why he doesn't believe in himself and believe in his own ability and don't use Josh Dobbs as an example here. Don't be doing that. Josh Dobbs came here at two and nine career backup who had bounced around. Don't tell me he can't shape an offense because he couldn't

in the middle of the season work around. And I thought he did some things wrong. So let's get that clear. But that's not a good example as in comparison to drafting a quarterback or acquiring one and then building a whole offense through an offseason around that player. It's very hard to take Josh Dobbs and then tell all 10 other players, like, new offense, guys, new offense. That's hard to do. I think that his play calling, he really put too much on Josh Dobbs and trying to throw all the time. But when it comes to the other part of that,

if you draft Bo Nix, then you shape your offense to Bo Nix. If you sign Baker Mayfield, you shape your offense to Baker Mayfield. I mean, are we undervaluing that? You might be right. There's a possibility, Garrett, that you are right, that Kevin O'Connell sitting in his own office at TCO Performance Center watching tape is saying, yeah, only Kirk can do this. A rookie couldn't do that. I better bring back Kirk. But if he does that, I don't have a ton of trust going forward for where

this thing is going to go because that's your job, right? That is your job is to be able to make the best decision from a front office perspective and then coach those players that are the most accumulation of talent and money economically to be able to succeed. So I think what you're asking is totally legitimate. Does he think that? Are we undervaluing that he might think that? Could be. Could be. It's not a terrible theory. It's terrible if that's what they think, but it's not a bad theory on your part. And I guess my answer would be, we're going to find out because if they bring him back with options in the draft and options in free agency, then I guess that's what we're supposed to think. Is this the only person who can play quarterback?

I've watched many other people succeed over the years at quarterback, but for some reason, they have always treated this operation as if he's the only one who could do it. Got to pay him the absolute top dollar because he's the only one who can do this. It's a little bit strange, the stranglehold he has had on this organization because he's just good enough to convince the coach that all he has to do is coach a little better. But here's what drives me a little crazy about that line of thinking. Well, we were very close in the Chargers game. We were very close in the Chiefs game.

We were very close in the Eagles game. That's what I heard all year long. If we had only had this, if we didn't fumble, if we didn't whatever, good teams blow people out. Good teams win by a lot most of the time. Good teams don't have to rely on whether Hawkinson holds his hands this way or that way and brings it in or not. Good teams don't. You don't win 12, 13 games usually.

That's why 2022 is so weird. Usually by just relying on one score luck. Usually you beat teams by a couple scores, at least on a regular basis, not every single week. And then when you play great teams, you expect it to come down to the small things. But if that's,

if that's the thinking is and coaches are like this, I can just coach them up. I just need to coach this one point. I just need to hit my players with pool toys. So they won't fumble. If I, if we just didn't fumble, but that line of thinking is very flawed. Adam says, given our time horizon, should the Vikings try for a big splash, like getting a game wrecker in Christian Wilkins,

or spread the dollars out to two or three lesser players to fill out the roster? In free agency. You mean good question. And I'm not 100% sure what the best way to go about it is to tell you the truth, because you can make an argument for both sides. You could say that, look, Christian Wilkins will be good for five years. So if you sign him to a five year contract, you have Christian Wilkins will be good for five years. So if you sign him to a five-year contract, you have Christian Wilkins and difference makers are the ones that ultimately determine whether you win or not. So you should try to take that big splash for that one player, then try to get to the bargain bin,

pick and choose on other guys and see if you could fill out the roster, but you know, you've got a star. I totally understand that. Then there's another way of looking at it that sometimes the second wave of free agency performs better than the first wave because everybody overpays those big-time free agents. And then they overlook some guys who turn out to be really good signings. And average is good. If you can sign an average player, like I know PFF was pretty harsh on Byron Murphy jr. I thought he was fine. You know, I thought he was good. And you saw that when he was out, how bad it went

for this team, that's an average type of second wave signing that if you did that same thing five times as opposed to putting it all into one player that might work out pretty well for you however you still don't have a game record you still just have guys and those guys are good but they're not difference makers 17 times a year and and i that but i think that it might be forced It might the way they go might be forced, which is probably to go with the second wave players and try to get a number of them. Not only because of how many openings they have, but also because I think a player like Christian Wilkins is just going to sign somewhere else. I mean, not to be cynical on you. It's just, if you look at the layout, the situation, you probably have to overpay by a good amount if you're going to get someone like Christian Wilkins.

And every once in a while, there's that big splash and they land a big free agent. But when was the last time that actually happened? In Vikings history, someone's going to have to tell me. When was the last time they landed the guy in free agency, the guy, like someone who was at the very, very top. It's been a while. And it's not because of Minnesota or because they haven't offered money to these people. It's usually been in recent years, salary cap situation, and players got to usually believe that they can either be the reason you're turning around

or they can be on a team that could compete for a super bowl and if you can't offer them either thing then uh which i'm not sure the vikings can then they usually won't go and sign with you but i mean someone like wilkins he is the cream of the crop and after people get franchise tagged he will definitely be if he's available uh up at the the upper echelon of players i would love that sign he's a great player i mean i'd be all for that and that's a impact position that makes a difference all over the field it's just i'm not sure they'll have that opportunity so you know I could defend either way that they went about it. It's probably at the moment, a good time to sign some players who are on the younger side, who could be with you for multiple seasons, who are good, and then look for the big fish next year. That's probably how I would

approach it. Uh, Abhi says, bring a chase young on a $15 million contract, draft an edge in round one. Davenport is a rotational player on a cheaper contract for quarterback climb back in to the first or let one fall outside the first round and get them. It's an interesting plan. Uh, chase young. I'm not super excited about, I just don't really like the inconsistent efforts from chase young, sort of one of those guys that has a high ceiling and is so gifted that he can, Now, I just don't really like the inconsistent efforts from Chase Young, sort of one of those guys that has a high ceiling and is so gifted that he can occasionally be magical and incredible, and his highlight reels will blow you away. But on a play-to-play basis, I don't know that he impacts the game

the way that you would want somebody with that draft status and talent to do. 15 mil, though? I can buy that. 15 mil though i can buy that i mean i could buy that kind of falls into the category of what we were talking about where you're usually getting flawed players so i can get behind a cheap contract for him will there be a cheap contract or are edge rushers at such a premium that somebody's just going to go crazy anyway. That I don't know. Davenport coming back, I guess so. Seems possible. Wouldn't be my choice, though. I mean, look, I despise the term injury prone.

Hate it. Can't stand it. Because there's so many players who've had bad luck. Christian McCaffrey is one. The guy had bad luck injuries. Daniil Hunter is one. I didn't have to go that far. Kyle Rudolph early in his career. Sometimes guys have bad luck injuries. Daniil Hunter is one. I didn't have to go that far. Kyle Rudolph early in his career.

Sometimes guys have bad luck injuries and then they're fine for like five straight years and they weren't injury prone. But Davenport has an injury sheet that would take a very long time to print out. And then to have it happen last year and something like a high ankle sprain, knock him out for the whole season. I don't know how you could justify bringing him back. I truly don't because it seems like you're just asking for him to get injured. As far as your quarterback plan. Yeah. You know, I don't, I don't dislike that. It doesn't have to be at number 11. Teddy Bridgewater wasn't at number 11. There have been

plenty of quarterbacks who are taken a little farther down who have worked out. They don't necessarily have to be at the top. I do think the farther someone falls though, the more their odds of success do slip or the more flawed that you're talking about as a prospect. But interestingly, to your point, I was watching my friend Marcus Whitman, his podcast that he just did with Mike Renner, and they did a mock draft. They couldn't find a home for JJ McCarthy up at the top of the draft once a couple of teams went off the board. And once somebody else went to Denver, for example, or the New York Giants, they decided not to pick a quarterback there because they need so much.

There was a free fall in the middle because if he gets past a couple of QB needy teams, then it's a whole run of teams that don't need quarterbacks that would not be taking JJ McCarthy. And that could happen to him, or it could happen to Bo Nix, or Michael Penix could be a guy who's much more of a back end of the first type of quarterback because there's some risk that goes along with his previous injury history. So if you're going to do that, most of the time I'm kind of against it. But in this particular draft, there might be somebody they like that they know the league

is not insanely high on to take in the top 15, and they could do something like that. So your plan, I guess what I would say about your plan is not crazy, not unrealistic. Sorry for the double negative. It is realistic and sane is the way I should probably put that, grammatically correct. Bradley says, given the Wilfs condition that the team has to be competitive and isn't allowed to tank, how could you have done a better job than Kwesi without hindsight, maybe even with hindsight? This is something I do think about a

lot is that to get to this point, there are things we could pick away at. So when you say, how could you do a better job? Of course, if you even draft premium positions a little more in 2022, not even focused on the players, but a safety, a guard and a linebacker making up three of the first four picks, not really ideal. And yeah, I know Detroit drafted a little non-premium positions and had a great draft. That's very true. I get that. They also already had a quarterback, an elite wide receiver and offensive tackles too. So some of those positions were already pretty settled for them. So they were going to pick around the other parts. That's what most

people were criticizing is their positional value. But they did have a lot of those positions, even edge rusher they had drafted recently filled. The Vikings don't have that situation. So I think that you can criticize that draft for the trade down, not getting the value and for the non-premium positions that they took in the draft. That is criticizable for sure. As far as some of the decisions from a micro level, Marcus Davenport was a terrible signing. And if he leaves, he's going to cost them dead cap money for this year. They didn't need that. Not with the potential of cousins and Hunter taking up a huge amount of dead cap. They did not need more of that for Marcus Davenport, the structure of that deal, the player that they bought into. I've probably mentioned this on the show before, but when the

Vikings signed Davenport, somebody from new Orleans reached out to me and said, it's always something with Davenport. And yep, it was. And not all his fault, but he wasn't on the field. And then you're going to potentially either bring him back and risk that again or give a big dead cap hit. So that's not good. That's not good. And there have been other things that we could look at. But broadly broadly so i wanted to get that out of the way first like there are reasonable criticisms for sure broadly though the big picture here with this franchise is it was in cap hell absolute cap hell when quesadilla flamenco and kevin o'connell got here and they have transitioned away from cap hell away from old team that's on its last legs into a position right now to rebuild this thing by next year around a draft pick quarterback

that's the position they're in now where they go from here then i will decide because what you're saying is you know thinking about could he have done a better job? Well, yes, of course, everyone could have done a better job. That would be like saying a baseball hitter hit 330. Could he have, could you ask for any more? Well, yeah, of course there could have been other balls that he would say should have hit. And that's the same thing with Kwesi Adafo Mensah. Like, I think that the overall plan is in position to be executed. whether it does or not though. That's what matters. If you call the right play as a coach and your quarterback throws it through

the back of the end zone, instead of for a touchdown, sorry, man, wasn't a great call. Just didn't work out. So yeah, I think that moving on from a lot of players,

giving themselves flexibility at quarterback to be in this position right now, those types of things, yeah. I've been for that the whole way. But you've got to get it to the end zone. You don't get any credit from going from the zero or the other team's goal line or one-yard line to the 20 and missing the field goal. You have to get it in the end zone.

There's a football metaphor for you. So if he goes through this off season and they have a light roster, that's going to hope and dream that Kirk cousins can do just enough. I just have a really tough time seeing that as being success for executing the vision from part one to part two. So this is something that my friend, Eric eager brings up all the time. It's a lot easier to tear down than build up, right? It's a lot easier to take the

parts out last year than it is to replace all those parts, to replace Patrick Peterson, Eric Kendricks, Adam Thielen, Delvin Cook. That's the job. The job isn't just to tear down anybody. I can do that. I can get rid of players. You don't pay millions of dollars for a whole scouting staff and a whole front office with a bunch of executives and a general manager just to get rid of people, which you could do. You got to do the other part. So it's how they do the other part is what we'll judge. Swede Skull says, I believe Kwesi and KOC have a four-year plan that they laid out to the Wilfs. I think that, I think year one's theme was fix the culture. Year two was fix the future cap. Year three.

Year three is a good question. And year three, as I was just saying, is the hardest part. That's what it is. Year three, year four, those are the hardest parts. Fixing the culture, I'm not saying it's super easy, but where Mike Zimmer left it, not super hard.

Considering where he left it, that anyone with a shred of positivity and organizational skills or personality, interpersonal skills would have improved the culture and a player's coach, a guy who's a former player and you win a lot of games. It was the perfect storm. He had tons of great veterans who were happy to have them there because they tired of Zimmer that it was a situation ripe for a guy fixing the culture and making everybody happier.

But now some of those veterans are gone. Now you have to make a decision at quarterback. Now you have to build the whole roster. I mean, out of 22 starting spots, how many are we talking about need to be fixed here? Is it like eight? I mean, what percent? Is it like 40% of the roster needs to be fixed and then that doesn't even count they have no backup linemen they have no backup defensive linemen

they have no backup linebackers no backup corners like what is this team this team is a blank slate just waiting to be painted beautifully uh but you gotta paint it you can't just you know have the canvas so yeah i mean do i think that what you're saying is correct i do i do think this is the plan that they laid out to start and maybe winning 13 games through a little bit of a wrench in it but the fact they moved on from so many veteran players makes me think that they're they're on their way maybe the only thing that threw a wrench in it is, and we'll see this to the earlier question, was did Kevin O'Connell anticipate bonding with Kirk Cousins the way that he did?

That might be the thing that changes everything, but it shouldn't. John says, what is Trey Lance up to? Right now, Like at this moment I could ask him I guess I could check in with him What you doing Trey Trey is an interesting guy to bring up Though because

As we do our hypotheticals And we talk about hey shouldn't they Have traded Daniil Hunter at the Deadline and things like that Shouldn't we throw in another one A fourth rounder for Trey Lance We talk about, hey, shouldn't they have traded Daniil Hunter at the deadline and things like that? Shouldn't we throw in another one, a fourth rounder for Trey Lance? I mean, would that have been a bad thing where they stand right now? A fourth rounder, maybe for a guy who's had a couple years of development.

I was okay with them not getting Trey Lance because if Kyle Shanahan didn't want him, I think he's got to be way far off or just not good at all. But if we're talking about a team that's in rebuild mode, you could have Trey Lance and draft a quarterback. And then it's just another swing at it for somebody who's clearly talented. So I, again, I, I didn't fight for that one at the time. I wasn't really into that idea. The history of guys who are drafted that high turning out is not good at all, but now in the light of day, maybe I should have pressed for that harder. Maybe I should have said, Hey, look, if Kirk cousins tears his Achilles halfway through the season, you got Trey Lance. Um, but my contention was he would have to be great if they traded for him because if he was just good then they'd have to pay him

so but you know i mean it'd make things interesting now that's that's your trey lance update alex says my contention is the vikings have already moved on from kirk they just don't want to lose the leverage in any other plans and negotiations. There's no way they can financially sign other players. Well, there's a way, but it's not good down the road. They may philosophically not care about down the road. They really might not. Everything they've done so far, though, has.

Everything except for a little bit of dead cap with a couple of signings from last year. Everything else has pointed to down the road. Otherwise, why didn't you just bring back Adam Thielen? Or why didn't you just bring back Eric Hendricks or Patrick Peterson? Especially Delvin Tomlinson. He could have helped, but he would have cost a lot. So is that suddenly the plan? That's where when we talk about plans and themes to what they've done, everything so far that's led up to this is exactly what you're saying is like, hey, maybe they've already moved on and they've already had this plan and that's what we're talking about the last few questions but if if then they suddenly change course from everything that they had previously done after a seven and ten season

where they were four and four when the quarterback got hurt i'm gonna be pretty confused to tell you the truth i will be pretty confused uh i wouldn't be shocked but i'd be confused be like didn't all of this lead up to and then now now you're going to flip a switch and go freak out and sign all these free agents and blow out your future cap and do everything you can to have lower cap hits now and then void years on void years in the future. Like that, it just wouldn't make any sense

with what they've done in the past. But what is it possible? Seven and 10 does weird things to people. 7 in 10 does weird things to people. It does. It does weird things to people. It can make very confident folks in their plan start to wonder if they are on the hot seat. Getting criticized can do funny things to coaches and to general managers. Getting phone calls from your owners can do funny things to coaches and to general managers. Getting phone calls from your owners can do funny things to general managers and coaches. And that's the X factor here. Everything else leads up to a certain outcome. The X factor is pressure. It's always the X factor,

whether you're a quarterback, whether you're the Dallas Cowboys in the playoffs, or whether you're the Vikings making a decision right now. How much pressure are you feeling from the top that you have to win right now? It's a great question. Richard says, what's worse being the first team eliminated from playoff contention, final team eliminated from the playoffs or losing the Superbowl. So you mean like if you're the first team eliminated, then you're probably tanking. So that's not that bad because you have no expectations. If you are fighting in, in the race the whole way and then fall apart and miss the playoffs by a

game as the Vikings have numerous times, that's pretty bad because you feel like we didn't even get a high draft pick. And yet we also didn't get to the playoffs. That's pretty bad because you feel like we didn't even get a high draft pick. And yet we also didn't get to the playoffs. That was pretty tough. Losing the Super Bowl. I don't know. I mean, I'm not saying losing the Super Bowl isn't soul crushing. You're right there. You are right there, but you went to a Super Bowl and that's always the goal when you start the season. And when you get into overtime, it's a coin flip. It's a fourth and one it's a this, that, or the other thing. And no one is happy to lose the super bowl. That stinks. I think

the worst though, is to lose the NFC championship game or AFC. And I'm not just saying this for you guys. I'm saying it because I think it's true because you lose there when you're so close to making the super bowl and you just got to walk home and watch. Although divisional round, there's a real emptiness to the divisional round. Do you ever notice, guys, there's a lot of pain in football? Maybe you have. Maybe you have noticed this over a long time watching the Vikings. Divisional round's pretty tough because no one remembers who was in the divisional round.

At least if you go to the NFC Championship, people remember you were there. We know offhand all the years the Vikings were in the NFC Championship, you could wake up any Vikings fan in the middle of the night and they could tell you, uh, 98, 87, oh not, like easily. How many years were they in the divisional round? Oh, now that one is hard.

Maybe the hardcore could name that, but it's pretty forgettable. You won enough to get a playoff win and get excited once Now that one is hard. Maybe the hardcore could name that, but it's pretty forgettable. You won enough to get a playoff win and get excited once, and then immediately your dreams were shattered. Pretty tough. A lot of pain. A lot of pain in football. Jeff says, I think Penix is the most likely to be a superstar in this draft outside of Caleb Williams. Draft him, begin strengthening the roster and clearing cap space for 2025. I'm sure some of you, when you hear Jeff say that are like, ha, not Pettis. It's my guy McCarthy, or it's my guy Knicks or may, but if he's drafted in the first

round, you never know. I will be very curious about Penix because I think there's a couple of different ways to look at him. And I know some people like him. Some people really like him and I like him. I don't know about his medicals. I'd like a little bit more playmaking, but he doesn't take sacks, which is important to me. And I wouldn't rank them first, but I don't know. I mean, I think that there's a lot that's redeemable about all these quarterbacks. It's a different draft from some previous years that when you watch someone like Michael Penix and you watch him throw the football, you have to be wowed. The arm strength, when you watch the way he led this team,

it was a pass offense. It was just pass, pass, pass. And he's throwing dimes left and right. It's a big arm. It's a pocket quarterback. I get that. But is there a lot to like about that dude? Absolutely. And if he became the second best quarterback in this draft, okay, it's possible.

It's also possible he goes to the third round like Hendon hooker. I really don't know what the NFL thinks, but I see with a few things with my eyes that I really like one is that arm talent, the anticipation, the ability to fit it into tight windows, the velocity on the football. It matters, man. You got to throw that thing 20 yards down the field, but you don't want it floating out there. And this guy lets it rip. And then also the character part of it is just extremely high. He was, he was their team. He was the center. And you saw against Michigan that they were not that talented of a team, Washington. They were good. They were good, but they weren't Bama. They weren't Georgia. They weren't really belonging on that same playing field.

When he played a team that did, he was amazing against Texas. So yeah. Okay. I wouldn't be shocked if you're going to start them or if you're going to draft them, I'd like to see him start fairly quickly, but if he develops, that's okay. I don't mind if somebody's 23, 24, like, oh, you can't sit. I'm sure you can. Sure.

You can. Quarterbacks have played till 35. Sure. You can oh well it wastes a rookie year not really because you're not going to win the super bowl with them as a rookie anyway it's what the best development path is going to be regardless of the player's age that's how i look at it but i still like pennix i don't know where he'll be picked it's anywhere from the middle of the first round until the third round with Penix, because that's going to depend on what people see in those x-rays. I think Spicy P on Twitter says last season, I started affectionately referring to the purple as Kings as opposed to Vikes. It was a trial season. Any thought on acceptable nicknames? Uh, I like it more than when people do the other thing. That's, I don't know when they started

doing that, uh, as opposed to Kings, but I don't like that one, but no, I I'm sorry. I'm sorry. Spicy P I can't do it. Here's why they're not. Now, if they win the division, you call them the Kings. The Kings of at least the North. If they go to the Super Bowl, you can call them the Kings. Kings of the NFC. They got to be kings of something. Right now, they're kings of the middle. Their whole history is kings of not quite there yet. Almost Kings of almost got to go with bikes till they do something. Then we can go with Kings. How about that? Oliver says, can you explain how the Vikings ended up with Kirk's $28 million dead cap hit? Yes.

And no, the salary cap is more convoluted than I can handle, which is why I bring on guests. But put it this way. If you give someone guaranteed money, you have to pay for it on the salary cap. Now you can spread it out in different ways. You can give it to them all at once. You can put it all into one season. Well, depending on how much it is, but with someone like Kirk and that much guaranteed, you are spreading it out. So if you spread it out beyond what the length of the contract is, then you have your void year situation and that's got to be paid still. So if you give someone a hundred million dollars guaranteed and you give them a four-year contract

with two void years at the end to spread out the guarantees to lower the cap hits, then you still have to pay the void year guarantees. And what the Vikings did was they had it spread out over a couple of years, but they consolidated that into one, which is next year. They can spread it out again if they sign him before free agency so that's always possible but that's kind of how it gets there and i'm gonna have brad spielberger for pff on the show again we could talk about it a little bit more with dead cap and the options if they do sign him but that's essentially it if you give someone guaranteed money and you spread it out then you still have to pay for it uh if you cut that player that's how you end up with those dead cap numbers. If you cut that player, well, he's got guaranteed

money left, dead cap. See, that's the most elementary way I can explain it because there's a lot to it. But overthecap.com kind of has explainers on lots of different stuff. So that's always a good resource to check out. Anyway, all right. So Monday, if there's news, I'll go live in the middle of the day. In the evening, I'm flying to Indianapolis. And then Tuesday, the Vikings brass is going to talk in the middle of the day.

So I think it's 1230 and one Eastern time. Then we'll have a reaction to that with Dane Mizutani and myself. And then all hell's breaking loose on this channel, folks. Chris Trapasso is going to be there for two, maybe three podcasts over a couple of days. Brad Spielberger for PFF, supposed to be able to talk to Thomas Dimitrov and Eric Eager to have on the show just the beginning, expecting Courtney Cronin to be there as well. So if I can, lots of different guests from Indianapolis and a

ton to talk about with the Vikings going to the podium, the rumors, everything that's going on, the buzz, you know, the buzz is always one of the best parts. And I will be working my way around Indianapolis to figure out as much as I can for you. So thanks everybody so much for watching slash listening, and we will see you in Indianapolis.