Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - Would you rather have Kevin O'Connell or the field?

Episode Date: April 18, 2022

Matthew Coller and WCCO Radio's Paul Hodowanic play a game of "Would you Rather?" They talk about whether you'd rather pay Kyler Murray or have Baker Mayfield short term. If you'd prefer Kevin O'Connell versus any other non-elite coach in the NFL. If you'd rather have 11 wins for the Minnesota Vikings this year or a top-three pick next year. And if you'd rather live in Los Angeles or Minnesota. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Hello and welcome to another episode of Purple Insider, and we are continuing our wait for the NFL draft to actually happen. And, you know, Chris Trapasso, the other day of CBS Sports, when he was on, just saying like, gosh, why is the draft not this week? Paul Hodowanek joins me here from WCCO Radio and now increasing his role here on Purple Insider to a couple of podcasts a week, Paul. So thank you for that. And also, can we draft someday? Soon. I'm waiting.

I'm just sitting here reading the same scouting reports on George Karlaftis. I know. I have sympathy for Chris because he does it all year long. And so we've only been obsessed with it for what? Three months now. It's what I'm thinking about most days for three months. He thinks about it 24 seven. So he's probably watched the same tape like three, four, five times. Like at this point, especially for someone like him, like there is no new information for him to go through, dig up.

It's basically just talking to sources around the league and trying to figure out what's going to happen but no one's telling you anything no one's going to tell you exactly what they're going to do so it's just smoke screen after smoke screen and you don't know what's true and and what's not so i i agree i just want them to draft i want to know the players and i want to break all that down instead of who could fall to 12 should they trade back like all those conversations I'm happy to have, but we've had them a bunch of times. So it's like,

man, like let's, let's get this moving. Well, there is some interesting things that will happen this week. Kevin O'Connell is going to talk on Tuesday. So of course I'll be out there at TCO performance center. Ben Gessling is going to join and he's going to play the crystal ball game

where we look into the future. So I'm calling this games week where everybody who comes on, we're going to have a couple's going to play the crystal ball game where we look into the future so i'm calling this games week where everybody who comes on we're going to have a couple other guests from outside the beat uh to play different games and i have one for today but we've reached the point of the draft season where i've considered just reading from dane brugler's the beast that he puts out just reading it quietly like in a audiobook style sure like let me just pull one up here okay all right here you go george pickens a tall long athlete with growth potential has both short area quickness and deep speed wins over the top with his ball tracking skills to go and get the football graceful in midair to make full extension grabs see that's what i

actually that might be good yeah no i'm now reconsidering everything we do here i could i could definitely like listen to that while i'm doing other work it's very calming very very very nice i mean to be honest i would listen to an audiobook of dane brugler's because it is so many pages and i'm and i read it and I'm trying to read and I get through like five and I'm like, man, there's like hundreds and hundreds of these. And so props to him for everything he does, but man. The craziest part of Dane Brugler's The Beast, which is just his draft guide, but it's not just a draft guide. It's like a 288 page draft guide, uh, is the amount of stuff that he finds out about the players or that he

includes in their background. Like he has that George Pickens, his middle name is Malik. And I'm like, okay, I guess that's a thing to include. But I mean, there's so many of those things as you're reading through this, his amount of detail is all the way down to player middle names so maybe that's maybe that's what we should do is just have like every once in a while just a a reading from a prospect when we're talking about a specific prospect let's be like hold on let's read this from dane brugler's the beast in a quiet english voice in church like they read from the bible and this is our draft bible so we're going to be reading from the draft Bible today, a section quarterback, whatever, and really break it down. I think that'd be a good segment.

That's perfect. That's perfect. Okay. That's a, that's a bit for the rest of draft season. That's a bit just at random. We'll just start reading from that. But today the game we're going to play is would you rather so i have made up a bunch of would you rathers including drafts but also general uh vikings and nfl stuff um to create some fun conversations just things that have been on my mind and wondering what you think and then here's how here's where we're going to start so kyler murray and baker mayfield both in the news for being unhappy quarterbacks. Would you rather have Kyler Murray on a five-year $200 million deal or Baker Mayfield for 18 million this year with the possibility that he plays really well and becomes your long-term quarterback?

Which one would you have? Kyler Murray, you have to lock him in for five years, 200 mil, or Baker Mayfield at 18 for this year, you could get out of Baker Mayfield, but there's also the possibility he plays well, and then you have to extend. Yeah. I think Kyler Murray is an interesting kind of case study for give the big contract to people, because I think at this point, most people understand it's probably not the smartest to give money to Kirk cousinsousins or Derek Carr very long term. Like this contract for Derek Carr, Kirk Cousins becomes not much of a question. Kyler, much younger, has a lot of the athletic traits that you're looking for now in a modern day quarterback.

And so he's not that upper echelon, but he's high enough to where I would pay him if I had him on my team. And that's where I would go. And this would you rather, I would rather pay Kyler Murray for five years, $200 million, have him fully locked in, fully engaged. You're not going to have him deleting Instagram posts every two weeks. You're going to have him bought in, you know, exactly who is the quarterback of your team and you can build around him, uh, for a really, really long time. Uh, we've seen the last two years, they've kind of fallen off in the second half of the season, the Cardinals that is. But I mean, you tank and you get a first round pick, you get a first overall draft pick to pick someone like Kyler Murray. I mean, what is he

like the 80th percentile outcome, 90th percentile outcome of a first round quarterback that you could take? You're not going to get the Mahomes and and josh allen's very often and just below that you're not going to even get the kyler murray's that often but i think he is undoubtedly a success in this league and i would rather have that certainty than a little bit of flexibility that baker mayfield's situation would allow at that with murray i would i would lock myself in. Yeah, I think I would too, but also Kyler Murray exists dead in the middle of that line. Like if you draw a line of here's the players you pay and here's the players you don't pay. I mean, even let's even do this. Let's pull up quarterbacks from last year and, and go through this. Uh, let me just get it here of guys who

were real legit starting quarterbacks last year, guys you you pay so Joe Burrow is a guy you pay Tom Brady Justin Herbert I think has already proven that Rogers Allen Dak Prescott I think is also on that line but maybe just on the correct you know on the pay side of it obviously Patrick Holmes is the ultimate guy that you pay no matter what Russell Wilson was I don't know what he'll be into his thirties here, but Russell Wilson still qualifies for me as guy you pay. But I think that that's it. And then everybody else, the Ryan Tannehill's Kirk cousins. I mean, Matthew Stafford even was on that line of is he a guy you pay? And now that he has a Superbowl, you can pay him whatever you want and you don't have to really care. But aside from that, Lamar Jackson is a guy you pay because he's so unique and has done so much

winning. Even when their team was struggling last year, he was playing pretty well in winning games. And so he was dragging an injured, struggling team. And I also think his offensive coordinator might be bad. Um, so he's sort of overcome that as well uh from maybe early in his career greg roman's scheme fit but i don't see a whole lot of help for him now i mean i think murray is like right there is he that guy you pay that's where it makes it tough because with baker mayfield uh if you get him you get him at a cheap price this year a reasonable price at 18 mil that's like half what you're paying the top quarterbacks and he plays out the season but if you're not happy with him and he's not any good you can move on but if he plays

really well you sign him to the extension and then you're in the same spot as everybody else i think it's a really hard question because kyler murray and baker mayfield are not that different from each other where murray has always kind of come across as a little aloof, not exactly the leader that you talk about, right. Um, with some other quarterbacks like Patrick Mahomes, like not that kind of leader. So I've, I've never fully bought into him. I also think that he has kryptonite where Mahomes doesn't really. Uh, and we know that, you know, guys like Rogers Brady, there's no solution to those guys, but with Kyla Murray, it's kind of boom or bust. It's like hits on the big throws or creates big runs. Not a whole lot else. I don't know.

Like he would be really hard for me to just give $40 million a year locked in. I think part of the reason I would bet on Murray, I think if I was taking him out of that Cardinal system, I'm not necessarily a big believer in Cliff Kingsbury and what he's doing his offense seems very much kind of like kyler just go and do your thing like we're just going to let you figure it out and i'm i think maybe if he had a little bit more structure if he had kind of an offensive mind you trusted a little bit more that had the cachet that you've seen repeatedly be able to elevate quarterbacks or at least help them along i think he's one of those guys that could maybe take a jump if he had a different coach because from everything that I've read and watched about Kyler Murray and that offense,

it really is a Cliff kind of has his hands off and he lets Kyler make those plays. He probably lets him make those mistakes. And so that allows you to have those big booms because you let Kyler Murray's talent go on full display. You don't limit it at all, but you also then let some of those mistakes creep in. So I think if he had a little bit more structure, had a better offensive coach with him, I think maybe that would help out a lot. And he seems like maybe not a great locker room guy, but if, and seems frustrated with the situation,

but if he gets that contract, maybe then he settles in a little bit more. He knows that that team's committed to him long-term. He knows that they want him to be there. So for all those reasons, plus he's just much more athletic than Baker Mayfield is and ever will be. I, I still am on that side of, I would pay him, but he is that line. I think for a long time, like in 2018, the line was kind of, well, Kirk Cousins is the line of whether you pay. And I think over the last few years, we've seen that line elevate because Kyler is better than Kirk. And so now the who do you pay, who do you not pay as the money keeps getting higher? It has to go up because paying Kirk 40 million versus paying him 30 million three years ago is much different now. And so as those contracts continue to get crazy and crazy

numbers, you need to continue to elevate what that bar is for who you're paying. So I think now it's reached Kyler. It isn't even the Kirk number. It isn't Kirk anymore. It's not Derek Carr anymore. It's not Jimmy Garoppolo anymore. We've elevated one echelon of quarterback to Kyler Murray. Right. And the worst possible scenario out of this whole thing is probably the Baker playing well enough to get the contract. And then he's not as good as Kyler Murray. So maybe Murray with his athletic ability and pure arm strength could overcome some shortcomings of a roster where with Baker Mayfield, he's always had pretty good rosters and has not gotten a Cleveland past the one playoff win. So, um, and also, I mean, even the other thing with Baker is the numbers just aren't that great. Like if you look at his numbers so far in his career, they're just okay. They're what you would expect from maybe the 18th

best quarterback in the league. Um, I think maybe there's a little more there because he had some bad coaching early on, had the injury last year, but eventually you get to how many excuses can we make for him not having those great numbers that a lot of the best starting quarterbacks do. Okay. And you know, the other part too, is it just seems like people run away screaming for Baker Mayfield, like Odell Beckham wanting to go to LA. And then he gets to LA and he's like a choir boy and everybody likes amazing how, what happens when you win, but even just sort of the buzz around Baker Mayfield. Um, I'm not sure you'd, you'd want him on your team in general. Uh, all right. I'll give you another. Would you rather, how about this? Would you rather bet one of these teams or which one of these team would you rather bet?

These are all eight and a half or nine win teams by Vegas odds. So the Vikings, Dolphins, Raiders, Patriots, Eagles, or Cardinals, which one of them would you rather bet the over say for? Eagles would be my pick just based on their division. I don't feel great. The giants feel like they're one or two years away. Carson Wentz inspires no confidence with me, with the commanders, the Cowboys have taken a lot of steps kind of back this free agency, obviously letting Amari Cooper go. They've had some other pieces leave them. They haven't really replenished them much. The Eagles have two first round picks they still have the quarterback on a rookie deal that allows

them to maneuver they signed hassan reddick i believe uh he's now on the eagles uh and just because of the relative lack of strength in that division i feel pretty and kind of a lack of a dominant team in their division i feel good about that that. Miami and New England has to contend with the Bills in their division. The Cardinals have to contend with the Rams. Who knows what happens with the 49ers? They have to contend with them. Vikings have to contend with the Packers. Of those, I feel like the division leader that is the most susceptible to someone else

coming in and snatching it is the NFC East. And I don't necessarily believe Jalen Hurts is a long-term answer, a guy that you would pay. I don't think he would ever, or at least what we've seen, he wouldn't be someone like Kyler Murray that I would be willing to pay. But I think the relative lack of strength elsewhere on their side, plus the fact that they have two first-round picks that they can still go and do something with,

that really pushes me over. Of those teams, I would bet the Eagles. Yeah, I think you make a good argument based on their division just being not very good. You could switch this around and make an argument that the East will be the most approved division because last year Taylor Heineke got Washington to seven wins. Well, Carson Wentz isn't great, but he's got to be worth two or three more wins, even if he plays okay, than Taylor Heineke, who is the ultimate replacement-level quarterback.

And they have a good roster. And the Giants, I think, had more roster talent than Joe Judge was getting out of them. So you might be able to make an argument that that team will improve as well. And if you look at Philadelphia's schedule from last year and the wins that Jalen Hurts got, it's kind of underwhelming. I mean, I liked Jalen Hurts coming out and what he did last year, adding, you know, in his running game. And I thought he improved his passing down the stretch, maybe flashed for someone who could get a team to the playoffs, but I'm a little skeptical based on the teams they beat. They kind of had one of those crazy runs of super easy teams.

Miami kind of did too during the middle of the season where they didn't play anybody who was difficult. I think my answer might be Arizona because Seattle should be tremendously bad. I mean, even if they trade for Baker Mayfield, but they just brought back Gino Smith. They've got drew lock like that. That screams we're trying to draft Bryce young next year. And, you know, but they just brought back Gino Smith. They've got drew lock like that, that screams. We're trying to draft Bryce young next year. And, you know, we don't know the situation with San

Francisco. If Jimmy Garoppolo is traded, then it's, you know, it's going to Trey Lance. We don't know what Trey Lance really is. The Rams should be just as strong. So to me, that's still, you know, kind of some uncertainty there, but I think that it's a really good question because all of these teams, I think have the right line. Uh, the Raiders are a pretty strong roster, but they're in a really, really, really tough division, easily the toughest division in football. And here's another way to ask this question though. And, and the Vikings, I think that you would be, I mean, the over under is just so dead on with the Vikings of nine wins. Um, you'd be kind of really having to bet that Kevin O'Connell is going to make a big impact or that they're not going to get injured in order to bet the Vikings here.

But there's another question of which one of these teams, since they are all equal in where they stand in the NFL, all eight to eight and a half, nine win over unders, which one would you rather be for the next three years of all of those teams that I know? I'll go through them again real quick. We had the Vikings, Dolphins, Raiders, Patriots, Eagles, and Cardinals. Also, although you can't see my first answer was the Cardinals, but you can't bet them now if they might trade Kyler Murray. So that's a little dicey there as well. But which one of those teams would you rather be for the next three years? I think it has to be Eagles again, for me in this answer as well, because they have the rookie quarterback. So they have the flexibility

with the roster. Again, they have two first round picks this year. They traded with the Saints. So they have two first round picks again, next year, they're going to have a lot of cap space. And so whether or not Jalen hurts is the guy that feels like the place I would go. I, for the first question, uh, when we about over-unders, I was choosing between the Eagles and Cardinals, and then probably the Vikings would round out that top three, but maybe a little bit further down. That was probably the three I felt most confident in. And then which one would I want to be moving forward?

The Eagles are the only ones that have really long-term flexibility that haven't pushed a ton of money down the road like the Vikings have. They have a lot of draft capital to go with moving forward. So I think it'd have to be them. I think you can make an argument for the Patriots just because of Mac Jones. If you're a Mac Jones believer, I think he's been pretty solid. But again, they're going to have a juggernaut in that division for a really, really long time. The Eagles, while the division may be improved, there is no clear cut favorite there.

And I think they could easily make themselves out to be that team next year if they want to go at a quarterback in free agency or over trade, because who knows what unhappy quarterback is going to go on the market soon. There's going to be another one. Maybe it's Kyler, maybe it's a different one. But we're getting to that point kind of like in the NBA where there's probably just going to be an unhappy quarterback at some spot that could potentially get traded. And the Eagles with their, with their draft ammo are a perfect team to potentially do that. Or next year, if they want to use their two picks to move up, they can do that. So the Eagles really feel like a long-term team set, set up for success with what they've got with their draft capital and their flexibility up and down the roster. Folks, Minnesota sports teams are in the playoffs. Yes, that's right. Playoffs,

Minnesota sports teams is happening. And for all your Minnesota sports inspired gear, go to sodastick.com. That's S O T A S-C-K.com. They have hockey, basketball, all sorts of great designs on hoodies, on shirts, on hats, everything you need. Go there. Use the promo code Purple Insider for 15% off your purchase. Again, that is SodaStick, S-O-T-A-S-T-I-C-K.com. 15% off of the promo code Purple Insider. I was thinking for a lot of the same reasons Miami, because Miami has started to put together this group of weapons,

and they don't have to be locked into Tua at all. So if this year Tua doesn't take them to a division championship, they can be the team that's ready to pick up the disgruntled quarterback, or heck, they could try to team that's ready to pick up the disgruntled quarterback, or heck, they could try to trade for Kyler Murray today. If I'm Miami, I think I am making that call because you add Murray with Tyreek Hill, Jalen Waddell, Mike Kosicki. I mean, you got something pretty exciting going on there offensively, and while that division has Buffalo,

Josh Allen will soon be a very expensive quarterback, and then things get harder for the Bills. We haven't seen enough from Zach Wilson to say, but jets are jets. And then with new England, I think that what's going to happen if new England doesn't make some big signings, big changes, great draft picks, they'll probably end up like a 10 win team or a nine win team pretty often with Mac Jones. Cause I'm not sure there's that ceiling there. We'll see, you know, Joe Burrow had, you know, some ups and downs in his first year and then became amazing in a second, but you know, we'll see, but he feels like there's some limitations there with Mac Jones. So I don't think it's like impossible to overcome the AFC East if you could put together a great team. So I think that those are the two right answers because of the talent around the

quarterback especially for me in Miami and the quarterback flexibility. Miami's just, I have weird, like there's some weird juju with Miami, just like they were going to have Tom Brady maybe be an owner, then come back. They have the whole Steven Ross, like paying Brian Flores to tank or like to try to tank games. Like, I just don't know what's going to happen with that franchise over the next few years which just makes me uneasy enough where I'm I would pick another team but yeah roster wise they have a lot of the the chips in place and they just haven't been good for a really long time so it's just like I something about that franchise is just doing things the wrong way but yeah from a standpoint, they're scary from an offensive, um, on offense, they have to figure out the offensive line.

Um, and we'll see what Mike McDaniel can do. I mean, I think he probably has a kind of a boom bust factor with him as a head coach, either, either way. I wouldn't be surprised if in two years they're looking for a new head coach, but he, he seemed like a smart dude in San Francisco. So hard to know what happens there. Well, that leads me right into the next part of this, which is about the head coach of the Vikings, Kevin O'Connell. Would you rather have Kevin O'Connell or any coach in the NFL, not named John Harbaugh, Sean McVay, Bill Belichick, Mike Tomlin, Andy Reed, Matt LaFleur, or Sean McDermott? So those guys are out. You can't trade Kevin O'Connell for them. Would you trade him for any other coach in the NFL?

Would you rather have him or your pick of whatever other coach you want? Well, Shanahan wasn't on this list, so I don't know. All right, sorry. I'm going to add Kyle Shanahan to the list. Add Shanahan. I think it's a good question just because you have the unknown variable of O'Connell. So you almost like want to take a chance at that because none of the other coaches are going to blow you away, but I'm actually,

I think I would rather have Mike Vrabel as the head coach of the Vikings. Not a lot of great stuff happening like offensively with that team necessarily, but he's had two offensive coordinators come in and get head coaching jobs right away, which I think is a skill. You have to develop those guys. We're seeing that happen with Sean McVay and we use it as a feather in McVay's cap. I think we have to at least, uh, save Rabel is doing a good job empowering his offensive

guys and they're showing enough to get head coaching jobs. And then that team was just not good last year. Like once Derrick Henry went down and they found a way to still be the one seed and it didn't look great. Uh, but I just think he has to, like, you have to be a good coach at that point, if you're going to get that roster of that team and get them to the playoffs. And so maybe he doesn't offer the same upside that O'Connell could have, but I have a very, very high floor with a guy like Mike Vrabel, a guy that it seems like everyone likes to play for, all those cliches. It seems like he's great in that aspect.

And so I would probably go with him, but I think it's a good question. I don't know if there are many coaches I would pick, which is probably the point of this is that you have O'Connell and he has the pedigree coming from that Sean McVay offense, and he seems like he could be really good. And so it's kind of whether you're going to take the sure thing, or you're going to roll with a variable that could either be very, very boom or bust. So I, it's a, it's a good question. I think I would still go variable though. There's some other guys of the, I think if Kevin O'Connell works out, he's similar to that are not in the Bill Belichick,

Mike Tomlin Hall of Fame GOAT caliber. Frank Reich would be one of them. I think has done a really good job in Indianapolis, but has not taken a team really far, in part because of the quarterback situation year after year and having Carson Wentz just completely disappear on him in the last game of the season. Brandon Staley would be another one that he got a lot of praise early on last year, but they finished nine and eight. They didn't make the playoffs and now they're in, you know,

tough there. So I don't think there's any guarantee that Brandon Staley is a great coach. And I was not super blown away when they played the Vikings and the way that Brandon Staley is a great coach. And I was not super blown away when they played the Vikings and the way that Brandon Staley handled that one. But those are two guys who are, Frank Wright's not that young, but that are often, well, one is an offensive minded head coach that has a very much similar approach as a former backup quarterback to Kevin O'Connell, to handling players. Brandon Staley is supposed to be the modern head coach. So with the Rams connection, there's some similarities there. Ron Rivera is a proven good coach. He's again in really tough with that quarterback situation, but that's one where no one thinks that Ron Rivera just takes your team by proxy of being Ron Rivera to the complete next

level. So that's why I think it's really interesting. It's like, would you trade him for Ron Rivera? I don't think so. I think you probably would rather have the unknown. You mentioned Cliff Kingsbury. That would be a no for me. Pete Carroll, what would be the point of that? He's sort of antiquated now. Dan Campbell, I mean, got his players to play for him and is a super fun guy. I think I'd rather go with Kevin O'Connell here. Um, you know, Stefanski was another one that I think is a really, really difficult question of whether you'd rather have Kevin Stefanski because he took that team. It's just funny because I mean, when he gets there, they are the biggest laughingstock of the last 20 years, hands down the Cleveland Browns. and then the standard is set at

you need to be in the divisional playoff round and when they miss the playoffs by what a game or two then it's oh my gosh kevin stefanski does he know what he's doing like where were you guys recently you were in hugh jackson like complete no man land who is the guy like Rod Chudzinski or something? I mean, you were in no man's land of the Freddie kitchen. Yeah. Freddie kitchen. Right. Right. Just the worst of the worst. And, uh, he's now set the standard to where they're supposed to be good. I think I would probably rather go with Kevin Stefanski because I've seen a sample size of him doing really well. Also, he was a play caller when he was with the Vikings. So I would probably go with that, but it really speaks to kind of like a draft type of situation

where you haven't seen O'Connell coach. You're only guessing based on priors that don't always indicate success or not. So do you take some of the proven commodities or do you take the guy that may have the higher upside? I think it's a really, um, it's a really tough one. I think I would. I mean, I remember when they fired Mike Zimmer, I was just going through a spreadsheet and like kind of going through the last 15 years of how long coaches have lasted. And it's like their average tenure is like three years.

Like, like for all the Bill Belichick's there's 10 guys who get fired after two years and every franchise especially before a game's been played wants to believe that their head coach is going to be that guy who's going to be a guy that lasts a really long time seven eight years lasts as long as Mike Zimmer did frankly Mike Zimmer lasted way longer than most any head coach at most any other head coaches do. And that's what you're hoping for. And then for a large, large majority of the league, that doesn't happen. Now, that doesn't mean that's going to happen to Kevin O'Connell.

Maybe he isn't one of those. But if you were just doing it straight off numbers, you'd say in three years, the Vikings are looking for a new head coach. And so the opportunity to take a Stefanski who's already proven himself in a couple of years, of Rab Rabel who has been there a long time and has consistently got them into the playoffs even a Staley type who seems like he's doing things analytically correctly uh and seems to just be a smart human that like the players like and enjoy like I would probably take any of those three just because they are proven and we've seen it over Kevin O'Connell uh just because I think we lose sight of the fact that so many head coaches fail. And it could be them, it could be their situation, it could be their quarterback, it could be

any number of things. But when the average tenure is only three years and coaches are increasingly getting fired after just a year or two years, it's hard to find a really good head coach. It's just hard to do. And so I think you have to take, you know, if you have a known thing, it, it's really enticing to take that. Yeah. I would take the field as well here, but I also think that what's interesting with say draft prospects is we can usually form a like best case, worst case, low ceiling, high ceiling. What can this guy be with coaches?'s the whole spectrum it's if things go really great for you you end up as a sean mcveigh and that's where you came from so there's that potential there it the middle most maybe likely outcome is a frank reich or a brandon

staley where i think we would all go yeah you take that guy as your head coach over joe judge or matt patricia but also they're not in the Belichick, Mike Tomlin type of realm. But there's also the possibility that the guy has no idea what he's doing because it's his first time doing this. That possibility exists. I don't think that it's likely,

usually because the guys who fail that horrendously are bullies or have weird ego personality stuff that you can spot right away. Like Matt rule, Joe judge, Matt, Patricia, you could spot things from day one with those guys. Yeah. Right. And, and just the fact that he was horrendous with the dolphins and then they give them another job, like what? So those were a more predictable, uh, with this, I think based on just the guy's demeanor and how he seems to be a very realistic human being. Um, and maybe like what, what, and he's going to a stable franchise. A lot of those coaches that go flame out are not good franchises. Like, I don't want to say that any person who's coaching an NFL team is like normal,

but, but Kevin O'Connell has like normal ish tendencies is the way that i would put it uh all right next one here would you rather the vikings win 11 games and reach the divisional playoff game but you don't know the outcome yet i'm not telling you what happened in the divisional playoff game or draft in the top three so 11 wins but you don't know the outcome to the divisional game or draft in the top three next year? Oh man. I think I've always been more leaning towards the side of you got a tank and you can see what happens with a really high draft pick. Even if it's not a quarterback, you're going to get an absolute blue chipper that is going to matter for a really, really long time. And I think the Vikings are seeing at number 12,

while higher than they've been in a couple of years, they're still missing out on that. Maybe the top two cornerbacks, they're one of the biggest needs. They're going to miss out on like the top four edge rushers. They probably, if they were in the market for a quarterback, are going to miss out on the top quarterback, maybe the top two quarterbacks.

Like it's hard to pick in that middle of the first round realm and find those blue chip, blue chip stars. And so I think if you injected all Vikings fans with a little bit of like truth serum or honest serum or whatever it is, if you told them they had 11 wins and we're in the divisional round, they're probably the sixth most likely team to win the Superbowl at that point. Like the odds are probably just not great. And if it's 11 wins, it,

you know, it means they were solid during the season. They didn't go 14 and three. There aren't some juggernaut team that figured something out. And so at that point with a quarterback class that looks better, I know that's dangerous to say more than a year out, but looks like it has those blue chip guys where the Vikings are with only kind of a year or two committed to Kirk cousins,

I think you have to take the top three pick and see what you can roll with. But again, it's hard when you're in the playoffs and, and to say, Hey, just be really, really bad. That's a season of being absolutely horrible.

And most Sundays not feeling great. So like I get, I don't blame anyone for wanting that post season, but if you're truly hoping to win the Super Bowl, being in the top three is just going to help your avenue raise your chances so much higher, I think. So the reason I would pick the 11 wins in divisional game and take my chances of what happens in that divisional game

is based kind of on one thing, and that is a blocked punt by the San Francisco 49ers against the Packers. That with only one seed that is a blocked punt by the san francisco 49ers against the packers that with only one seed that gets a buy now i think the randomness just went back up a little now i'm not saying that the wilfs idea of just make the playoffs and see what happens like no because if you're a nine win team or an eight win team your chances are about zero to win the super bowl but if you're an 11 win team,

you're, you're hovering around that edge. Like the average team that has won the Superbowl or went to the Superbowl over the last 20 years had 12 wins. That's in a 16 game season. So no surprise teams that won the Superbowl were great. Um, so what does that translate to maybe now a 13 win season with 17 games? So you're two games off of that still, but is it possible that something else happens and you get a favorable matchup and you could get to the NFC championship game? There's another part of it too, that if you have an 11 win season or more, you probably had a lot of things go well. And what I don't, I mean,

like not just Adam Thielen was good or Harrison Smith, those guys we can't really count on long term, but I mean, a lot of guys who we don't really talk about yet probably stepped up, you know, like Cam Bynum or Kenny Wong Wu or Amir Smith, Marcella, like Irv Smith Jr., like players who we didn't really have on our radar probably had to have made a big impact, and that would speak well of the future. Or whoever you draft at 12, let's say you draft Chris Olave at 12, and then he's an instant star, and your offense is just unbelievable. I mean, I think you'd rather take that

than the top three draft pick and roll the dice, even though the top three draft pick route may have a better chance at the Super Bowl. But I think at that point, if you're there in the divisional round and you don't know the outcome yet, you probably have to do that just because you never know. Yeah. Well, you are talking to the guy that when like was watching the MLB draft in like 2013, when the twins drafted Byron Buxton. And then I proceeded to get the MILB app and watch his stats for like three seasons. And I was the guy like,

like scrolling on my bleacher report app to walk, like look at every mock when the wolves were going to draft Carl Anthony towns and Anthony Edwards, like I am that draft guy. Like I'm that blow it up and just see what happens. Cause you could get someone intoxicating like Anthony Edwards and something like that. Like that is kind of my personality and what I tend towards. And so that's kind of, and I'm obsessed with the NFL draft. And so the Vikings having a top three pick would just be like me, like a kid in a candy store for me. And so I think that my priors kind of pushed me towards that, but I would blame no one for taking an 11 win season and wanting to see where it goes and

hoping you're a couple of bounces away because all you've shown is if you get to that Super Bowl once or you make, or you win that Super Bowl once, like it doesn't matter what happens the next couple of years like that. That is so, so so pivotal that's what everyone's going for and just to have a chance to do it once is is something not many teams get the opportunity to do just through the course of the season you lose guys with injury I mean we know how hard it is to get there the Vikings have been trying ever since they got Kirk Cousins to get back there and although they've made it to the playoffs a couple of times, haven't felt really remotely close to that 2017 team. So I get how hard it is to get there, but I'm that guy. I'm that guy who

wants them to draft and blow it up. So that's just my personality. So that's where I'm going. But I, again, I blame no one for taking that other option. I think it would be a 50, 50 split in the fan base. If I don't tell you the divisional outcome game, because you could very well be playing against the team that has won 15 games and then you just get blown off the field. And then what does it mean? Like was 2019 meaningful to you a little, I mean, they had, you know, some good moments. They came back from down 20 against the Broncos. I guess that was fun. Brandon Allen was the other team's quarterback, but that was, you know, it was a fun game and the win against New Orleans was a really entertaining, I mean, truly you get to the divisional round but you don't know where it goes from there like is that on its face a great season for the Vikings to have won

11 games I'm not sure that it is I just think that if you're on that doorstep then you can have things change quickly a quarterback for the other team can get hurt a blocked pun you know a good matchup just even a favorable matchup they matched up really well with those new orleans teams for whatever reason like that would make me lean that way is like that's the goal is to get on that doorstep um but yeah sorry go ahead well i was just gonna say but i'm i'm you also like i have i have long felt the same way it's just that with that particular situation you've done everything to try to win. And so how could I criticize you winning and getting to that place is the way

I would look at it. Yeah. And I don't, I don't think you can discount. They went 11 seasons during the playoffs. Justin Jefferson's probably happy. That is a major key for your team. If you want 11 games,

that means Kevin O'Connell isn't a disaster. Like some of the coaches we named probably means he's good for a couple more seasons. It probably means some of the moves that Casey made were nice moves. And so you feel very confident probably at that point that you're moving in the right direction at the top of your front office, at the top of your coaching staff and with your best player, like you're probably feeling all good with all those things.

And that is a really like alluring factor in this as well is the, a lot of those things that are on the uncertain right now probably get proven. And those are good things for the longterm of the franchise. So I think that again is another point in your favor. If you're going, if you're rooting for the 11 win season. All right.

I've got some quick hitter draft. Would you rather, but since you are the biggest golf fan I know, how about this? Would you rather live in LA and play golf year-round, but the traffic is horrible and everything is super expensive, so you don't have money to play golf? Or would you rather live in Minnesota where you can only play golf for six months a year, but things are cheaper and there's no traffic. Yeah. I mean, you're, I'm looking out the window right now and it's what, what's it like 20 degrees and we're freezing our butts off. I've already played twice this year. So I've braved, I've braved the cold two times already. I, I think I'm picking, uh, live in LA, uh, and play golf year round, even if it's

expensive. Yeah. I don't know this purpleider money, really, really good stuff here. I think I can swing it for a little bit. No, I'm just kidding. I think I have to pick LA just because I am obsessed with it. And this weather is brutal and we need to move on. And so we can go play golf and have some fun. But, oh man, even when it's warm, it looks like it's going to rain next week when it's warm.

I can't even go out then. It's just horrible. It is horrible. I've been very frustrated. However, my in-laws live in LA. I've spent a lot of time there. I will not be moving there. It like you think you feel like you start like a bargaining with God with the traffic. I am not kidding. Like when you are stuck, dead, stuck, cannot move, nothing happening. You don't know why it's just cars upon cars upon cars. And you start going, God, if you get me out of this, I'll do anything. I'll donate to charity. I'll like, whatever it is. It is that bad. And the other thing is it's not just stuck. It's also every time you go anywhere, it has to be planned out.

Like what if like this is so when we fly there, when we return, we only only only ever fly out at six o'clock in the morning. First flight from L.A. to Minnesota, because if you go in the middle of the day, there's a chance that you legit miss your flight. And that's and it's like a half hour away from my aunt's house when there's no traffic. I was in LA last February. And it was like, oh, we're two miles away. I look on my map. Oh, that's a 13-minute drive to go two miles. I'm like, okay, this is not the same thing.

And we got to the airport at like 10 p.m. And we were trying to take a shuttle bus over to the rental car place. It took us like an hour and a half for the shuttle bus to just get out of the like airport parking lot. So I have very limited experience with it. But I'd get up, I'll get up at like 5 AM to go golf. If I need to, I'll do whatever I need to do. And I, and I absolutely love going to LA. I mean, it's just, it's a magical place and the weather is unbelievable. So when you can, this was usually the week and it hasn't worked out schedule wise for us this year. This was usually the week around when I would go on vacation and go to LA and it would be, you know, 85 degrees or something.

And it's just awesome. So it's a great, it's a wonderful place. So nobody from LA get offended. But if you're comparing the two, that traffic thing can suck the life out of you. I'd rather be able to, we go play golf sometimes at courses that are a half hour, 45 minutes away, and it's just like, okay, let's just go. I mean, that would be impossible. It's like you'd have to play at your course that's really close your house or, or you're just putting your life in your hands.

Counterpoint. I was literally blown over on the street, like earlier this week, walking from the bus into work. Like it was like the 50 mile an hour gust day. I was blown over. Like I like went into the side of the building because I was pushed. So fair enough. Yeah.

Fair enough. Yeah. This last couple of weeks has been just horrific. Okay. Quick hitters here. Yeah. enough yeah fair enough yeah this last couple of weeks has been just horrific uh okay quick hitters here yeah would you rather draft jameson williams or derrick stingley jr uh derrick stingley i'll take uh i'll take j yeah i'll take jameson i think okay um would you rather have malik willis at 12 or sam howell at 20 plus a uh 2022 and 2023 second round pick. So you get two draft picks to trade back with Pittsburgh.

And you take Sam Howell as opposed to Malik Willis. Malik Willis. I think I'd rather have Malik Willis too, but I'm not a hundred percent sure on that. It's not like Malik Willis is the highest upside, but the hit rate might not be great on him though. Yeah. I'm just going for upside there.

Everything we've seen from Sam Howe feels like relatively low ceiling and if it was i get a for another first round pick then i would feel better about it but even sam howe at 20 you probably have to commit like three years to him two years to him uh and he just doesn't feel like he has the talent where i'd feel very comfortable doing that with the kind of the schedule the rest of the team is on yeah I think that like second rounders now these days are pretty valuable still and if you were giving me two of them it softens the blow of losing out on that number one pick and and you get two shots in the second round at getting a good player I think I yeah that's a hard one I don't I'm not very confident in my ability to pick out whether Sam Howell or Malik Willis

would be better. I probably, I probably do go with that. I probably go with Howell and the picks. Uh, all right. Kyle Hamilton or Kayvon Thibodeau. If both of them are available, shockingly at number 12. Uh, I take Kayvon Thibodeau, uh, positional value is much greater. Uh, the fifth year of his contract would be really, really valuable if he's a really good player. I take Kayvon Thibodeau. Positional value is much greater.

The fifth year of his contract would be really, really valuable. If he's a really good player, you're getting him on one more year of team control. And just from in terms of who can impact the game more, I think an edge rusher would be a little bit more important than a safety, which while their importance may be rising, still is not as high as edge. So I think I go Kayvon Thibodeau there. I think so too. But also, like, the reason...

So if the whole league thinks that Thibodeau's personality is enough of a problem to drop him to 12, then I guess I would... Like, I don't really believe in that stuff most of the time, but if everybody has a problem with it, then there's something there that they're not telling us. Kyle Hamilton, the only issue is that he didn't run a good enough 40, which I'm not sure is super relevant to a safety. So that's a tough one.

I think I would also go Thibodeau, but it's kind of like with an asterisk. He seems very confident and very sure of himself, which is what I want from an edge rusher. Maybe he doesn't say the, well, I think I'm the best player available and I'm'm gonna make my team like whatever team drafts me i'm gonna be happy he's like no i'm going one and the other teams are making a mistake if i'm not the first like i like that type of confidence that type of arrogance he has other interests this feels kind of like a you know he doesn't fit the traditional mold of a scout that doesn't quite um you know the he's just not modern in his way of thinking i remember when anthony edwards had similar oh he doesn't the, he's just not modern in his way of thinking. I remember when Anthony Edwards had similar, Oh, he doesn't love basketball. He's not that great. Cause he had kind of an,

a different personality that people weren't quite into. I think I'm not as worried about his character concerns. Yeah. I think it's very hard, very, very hard to, to figure that out. Um, because we only kind of know what's out there and we don't really know what happened in the meetings. And so if all these teams are taking a guy who should be number one in talent and saying nah it's like they've they've been through this a lot i mean they've done this with a lot i mean they've made some mistakes randy moss is one of the all-time mistakes a character mistake but also let's remember all the other guys who they also thought the same things on that turned out to have character problems. So I'm not saying don't draft cave on Thibodeau.

It's just if you're in those rooms and all the teams go, oh, man, there's so many red flags here. We can't do it. Then I would probably go Hamilton because of his character. And I'm not worried about the 40 thing. Yeah. Part of me is just like he has been the number one prospect since he was in middle school, high school, college. Like, did you not talk to him then? Like, did no one talk to him then?

Did no one know what his personality was then? It never pushed him down draft boards at any point. And so part of me thinks because we're in smokescreen season, it's like the Giants sitting there at five or one of these teams at seven, eight, or nine. And they're like, wait, we have a chance to get him. Okay, say whatever we need to say to where he could drop. Because it just feels like it's getting noisier and noisier and maybe that's something, but it also feels like a team like the Vikings are like, wait, this guy, the guy that was going to go one for many,

many years has now suddenly could potentially drop to us. Like we need to make sure that happens. So I, it's hard for me to know what's smoke in this. And so it feels like it's just coming on so late and so strong that it feels like a team like the giants at five or like please let him fall to us or something like that like they're one of these teams is going to pick them high and i i that's what that's my feeling on it i don't know could be very smokescreeny uh i'm gonna end the show with another reading from dane brugler's the beast this is uh the draft bible yeah this is the is the background on Kayvon Thibodeau.

So we have a little more information here. Yes. Kayvon Thibodeau was raised with his mother in South Central Los Angeles and started playing football at age eight. Because of his size, he initially played the offensive line before moving to fullback and linebacker and then defensive end in seventh grade. Thibodeau originally enrolled at Unipero Serra High School, a private program as a freshman, but because of the lack of varsity playing time, he transferred toward the end of the season to Susan Miller Dorsey High, a public school in the Crenshaw District. That's fantastic.

I mean, he got Brugler again. He knows when he changed positions in like sixth grade. He's like, well, it's crazy that he knows all this stuff, man. How did you find that out? I hope he has helpers. I hope he has helpers, like getting him all these things. Cause if it is him doing that, like he must, he has no time for anything else in his life. Right.

I'm like for us, he's doing it for us. Like he sacrificing for us and so thank you a hero really yes but please please i hope someone's helping you and also like is this legal more dane brugler readings to come uh thank you paul for your time as always and hopefully you played along at home and feel free to tweet me or email me some of your answers to the would you rather, and we'll have Jonathan on our social media, post some of them and see what people say. So thanks, Paul. And we'll talk soon.