QAA Podcast - Episode 222: Charlie McGonigal, the FBI & the Russians feat Mattathias Schwartz

Episode Date: March 9, 2023

Charlie McGonigal used to be the FBI's top NYC spy-hunter. His high rank, access to classified intel, and alleged work for Oleg Deripaska (of Russiagate infamy) means the story of MGonigal's charges c...ould be one of the worst scandals in FBI history. We spoke to Mattathias Schwartz, the reporter for Business Insider who broke the story. Subscribe for $5 a month to get an extra episode of QAA every week + access to ongoing series like 'Manclan' and 'Trickle Down': http://www.patreon.com/QAnonAnonymous Mattathias Schwartz: https://twitter.com/Schwartzesque QAA's Website: https://qanonanonymous.com Music by Cosmic Cars. Editing by Corey Klotz.

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 What's up QAA listeners? The fun games have begun. I found a way to connect to the internet. I'm sorry, boy. Welcome listener to the 22nd chapter of the Q&ONANANANANANANAS podcast, the Charlie McGonical and the Russians episode. As always, we are your host, Jake Rakatansky, Julian Field, and Travis View. Folks, I don't know if you noticed, but the news.
Starting point is 00:00:30 cycles of today just are not as exciting as they were during the Trump years. Where's the Russian intrigue? Where are the dramatic indictments? Where's the naive insistence that powerful people will soon face justice? Fortunately for those who got into the Mueller report, we've recently been treated to a tale of a crooked FBI agent. Former counterintelligence officer Charlie McGonigal was charged for allegedly working with Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaska. The indictments inspired a flurry of conspiracy theories alleging that McGonigel help tip the 2016 elections in Donald Trump's favor. To help us separate fact from fiction, we'll be talking with Matatius Schwartz.
Starting point is 00:01:07 He's a reporter who broke the story of the federal investigation into McGonagall last year. We'll also discuss recent reassessments of how the press covered the Mueller investigation and supposed Russian influence operations. Travis, how close to outright calling Russia gate a conspiracy can I get before you send your federal goons after me? Well, we'll see. we'll see. Well, I start making like a slicing motion across my throat. That means the goons are at the door. Should probably, you know, hold back a bit. I would, I would say find a better signal. That is so
Starting point is 00:01:39 clearly a death threat. I could use that against you in court. I was going to say that if, if it's a very slow, deliberate finger across the throat, that means you've already gone too far and Travis will kill you. So yeah, I remember, I mean, I followed the, the Mueller investigation pretty closely when I should have been doing my actual work at my office during my day job. So I remember I read like the steel dossier when that was published. That was very exciting. Didn't really amount much though. I read all the indictments. I became familiar with how FISA wore its work. And, you know, of course the investigation essentially concluded that while Russia interfered in the election through hacking and covert social media campaigns and that the Trump campaign embraced the help
Starting point is 00:02:20 and expected to benefit from it, there are no charges for any Trump associates for conspirators. firing with Russians. I actually made a custom Lego kit where I recreated the hotel room of the piss tape. Oh. And I had little figures doing stuff, you know. Oh, that's cool. Yeah. I got the, I had the, I had to find it on eBay, but there was a, uh, a playmobile set of, um, Mueller's testimony. Oh, yeah. It was great. And it came with everybody, little Adam Schiff. That's a little Adam Schiff. I didn't meet it like that I didn't mean it in a derogatory way
Starting point is 00:02:56 It was perfect, brother Playmobile, all the guys are the same size Very little gray hair Suit tie Oh boy They came with little plastic Kind of manila folders That you would sort of spread out in front of them
Starting point is 00:03:09 On the table So following that story It left me I think pretty prepared To follow QAnon Because a lot of early QAnon stuff It was so much it was just a reaction to the Mueller investigation. Like there was like the Mueller white hat theory, which assured, you know, Q and on followers, everything was going to be fine. They often talk about like the Flynn indictments and stuff, which, you know, you had to be familiar with from the news if you wanted to understand the cue drops.
Starting point is 00:03:30 That also gave me a taste for news that involves redacted documents and Cold War-style drama. So I was delighted to read Matt Schwartz reporting on the Charlie McGonigal scandal. I was chatting with him earlier and he seems eager to bat down misinformation as cropped up. up around the story. But before we talked to him, I thought we'd go over the broad outlines of what happened. So, Charlie McGonigal, former head of counterintelligence for the FBI's New York field office, was charged in two separate indictments for allegedly working with Russian oligarch Olaug Deripaska. And that's no good because Deripaska was sanctions for interfering in the 2016 U.S. presidential election. McGonigal entered a plea of not guilty on charges in connection
Starting point is 00:04:09 with violating U.S. sanctions, conspiracy, and money laundering. Prosecutors alleged that McGonigel and Sergei Aschestikov, a former Russian diplomat, violated U.S. sanctions by digging up dirt on Deripaska's rival. The Gengel is also charged with concealing connections he had with a person who, decades earlier, worked for an Albanian intelligence agency. He allegedly received $225,000 in payments for that work. Prosecutors alleged that during several trips overseas to Albania, Austria, and Germany, McGonigal failed to disclose that he met with foreign nationals, including the Prime Minister of
Starting point is 00:04:42 Albania and a Kosovovart politician. He was a good cop until they hit him with the Havana Ray, and then he was a crooked dirty cop. In one meeting, prosecutors alleged that McGonigal urged the Prime Minister of Albania to be careful about awarding oil field drilling licenses in Albania to Russian front companies. The former Albanian intelligence employee who paid McGonigle had financial interest in the government's decision about the contracts. The indictment also implies that under McGonigle's direction, the FBI opened an investigation into a U.S. citizens' foreign. lobbying effort based on information he received from the former employee of Albanian intelligence. McGonigle never disclosed his financial relationship with that man. This activity proved to be very lucrative for McGonigle.
Starting point is 00:05:26 One of the cash payments, that was $80,000, was allegedly given to McGonigle while he sat in a parked car outside of a restaurant in New York City. This is how I used to buy my weed, by the way, back in the late 90s, early thousands. You would sit in a Home Depot parking lot. That was the parking lot of choice. You would meet a guy named Johnny, whose name wasn't really Johnny, and you would get some pretty trash weed. Yeah, I think car meetings are coming back, hoping fingers crossed, car bombs are coming back. No, no.
Starting point is 00:05:56 You know, I mean, this is a trope. Only escapable ones. This is a TV trope of the special agent's car blowing up right under his feet. After McGonle retired from the FBI in 2018, he was brought on as a consultant for a New York law firm working on Deripaska's sanctions. McGonigle traveled to London and Vienna around 2019 to meet with Deripaska and others about getting the Russian oligarch delisted from the U.S. sanctions list. McGonigal and Sheshikov attempted to hide their involvement with Deripaska using shell companies and forged signatures to receive payments from the Russian oligarch.
Starting point is 00:06:32 In 2021, McGonigal was allegedly working to obtain dark web files for Deripaska that he said could reveal hidden assets valued at more than $500 million and other information that McGonigal believes would be valuable to Deripaska. But all that activity was ended abruptly in November of 2021 when the FBI sees everyone's electronic devices. Oh, man, they took away all their devices. You know, I mean, this is kind of unfair. You're basically fucking with a classic retirement plan for an FBI agent, you know.
Starting point is 00:07:02 Go full crooked near the end. Only a couple years left. And then just go work full time as like a private intelligence guy for, you know, whatever, whoever will pay you. Yeah. Shit, we should hire our own FBI agent. Maybe he could do something for the podcast. What would you have our crooked FBI agent that we hired do first?
Starting point is 00:07:20 Um, I don't know. Sick him on all of my enemies. Yeah, exactly. Give me a list. Let's go. We are now joined by Mattathias Schwartz, a senior correspondent at Insider. He broke the story of the federal investigation into McGonigal last year, and his reporting has offered the most detailed account of the affair.
Starting point is 00:07:39 His most recent report is headline, the FBI's McGonigle Labyrinth. and is real spy novel stuff. Mattathias, thank you so much for coming on the show. Really fascinating reporting. Oh, happy to be here, Travis. Thanks for having me. So we've already covered some of the broad outlines of the story. And before we, like, go into the actual indictments themselves, I wonder if you could help us understand the cast of characters. And we're going to start with Charlie McGonigal himself. Now, I've read that part of what makes this case so shocking is that McGonigal was not a low-level
Starting point is 00:08:10 agent. So how would you characterize his career at the FBI? So Charlie McGonnell had a incredible career at the FBI. He's a super high-ranking FBI official. The final job he had before retiring was special agent in charge of counterintelligence in the New York City field office. Now, that's a mouthful, but basically he was in charge of figuring out who all the spies in New York City were and what they were up to and whether they could be recruited to help the U.S. somehow and just to gather intelligence in New York City, which is one of the world's spying capitals. he had access to all kinds of intel from across the U.S. intelligence community. He was doing stuff with NYPD. He was leading a team of 150 guys who were all FBI special agents and doing this work of basically chasing and trying to flip spies.
Starting point is 00:08:58 Yeah, it was really fascinating the way you talked about the way that New York acted as a real intelligence hub, a global intelligence hub. You make it sound a lot like, you know, there are like shady meetings and deals, you know, and, you know, information being passed across like, fancy restaurants and like, you know, in streets and stuff. Yeah, it's just really interesting. Yeah, you've got all the money. You got the money. You've got the United Nations, which is a huge spine hub. I mean, being a diplomat all over the world is for most countries cover for a lot of intelligence operatives. You've got all the heads of state who come in for the big UNGA meeting. And then you've got Wall Street and finance
Starting point is 00:09:35 and all people from all over the world looking to hire financial services and park money and real estate. So it's a lot, you know, there's a lot going on there under the surface. And one of the fascinating things about this story for me is the way that we get these little glimpses of this kind of New York City shadow world. People are calling it the new Vienna. Yeah? No, I don't know. I just know Vienna also has that reputation.
Starting point is 00:09:58 I mean, it is like where everybody goes to spy on each other. Yeah, no, no, absolutely. And this is like, this gets us straight to Russia Gate. If you're, you know, if you're selling luxury condos in New York City, you know, for top dollar, of course you're going to be dealing with Russians. Of course, some of them are going to have ties to the FSB. I mean, you can't, it's not, it's not necessarily deliberate. I mean, that's just what, that's part of what New York City is and has been for, you know, 10 or 15 years now. Now, in your reporting, you spoke to a woman who had an affair with McGonogall,
Starting point is 00:10:28 Alison Guillero. She says that she was misled and didn't know that McGonogel was married. And as you describing your reporting, the fair for an FBI agent isn't a totally private matter. Why is that? Well, in theory, if not everyone knew about the affair, it's something that people who did know about it could use and hold over an FBI special agent as leverage. This was, you know, one of the sticks that people pointed at Trump with the dossier or the Russia trip with the Miss Universe pageant, that if he'd engaged in some sort of, you know, some sort of sexual activity, which was never proven, probably didn't happen. But people were saying, oh, well, well, that would be compromise. He would be compromised because he'd be so scared of it coming out. And then FBI agents are subject to even stricter controls. Every five years, they have to take a polygraph is my understanding.
Starting point is 00:11:19 And these kinds of personal matters, including, you know, potentially extramarital affairs, are stuff that an examiner gets into in a polygraph. And this is also something that Charlie McGonigle, given his position, should have been really adept at knowing that this is, something that foreign intelligence services could use to, you know, get leverage over you. So, so he would have more of a reason to be careful than most. Now, Alison Guerrero had a lot ties to New York City law enforcement. So he may have felt that she was sort of a trusted and trusted and vetted member of the circle he was already in socially. So maybe he made a carve out in his mind for it or who knows. Yeah, you know, yeah. I mean, it sounds like he was,
Starting point is 00:12:00 McGonle was lying to both his wife and his mistress, which seems like a bad idea when you're doing some like, you know, underhanded sanctions-breaking activity with Russians. Yeah, it's hard to know. I mean, it could be just sort of like a classic updike, you know, midlife crisis kind of scenario where in his head he thinks that this is, that he might, you know, actually get divorced. And so that's what he's telling the person. You know, who knows what he thought at the time. I mean, there's sort of a version of the story where he was, you know, being sincere
Starting point is 00:12:30 enough in real time and only sort of deceptive to her in retrospect. But this claim that Allison made that he lied to her and said that they were going to get married someday. A lot of people backed her up on that who I talked to, people who knew both of them. And her dad backed her up on that too. I talked to him and he said that, you know, that was his understanding that he'd actually met Charlie McGonagall. So this is not just, you know, it's something she says, but it's not just hanging on her word. You know, other people remember, remember this being the case at the time also. The other main character in the story is the 55-year-old Russian oligarch Olag Deripaska. And people who follow the coverage of the Mueller investigation are probably already familiar with Deripaska.
Starting point is 00:13:10 As you note in your reporting, Deripaska's name appears in the Mueller report 63 times. A bipartisan report by the Senate Intelligence Committee found that Deripaska conducted influence operations and that he took direction on some of those operations from the Russian government. So what is really relevant about Deripaska's background for the story? story. So as you're alluding to with the Mueller report, Oleg Deripaska is supposed to be the big, bad wolf of Russia Gate. He is supposed to be the person that was as close as we got to collusion, which would have been the meeting between Constantine Kilimnic and Paul Manafort at the Grand Havana room, where Manafort, as he admitted to me, gave Kalimnik internal Trump
Starting point is 00:13:47 campaign polling data. And then Kalimnik, according to the intelligence community, passes this on to Deripaska, and uses it to settle a debt that Manafort had to Deripa or that Manafort says Derpaska had to him, they had a dispute about money. Now, and then if you believe the United States Treasury Department and the Senate Intelligence Committee, you know, and I think there'd do a certain amount of deference, Oleg Derpaska really is a bad guy. They say he was, you know, taking direction from the Kremlin, that he was involved in these influence operations, that he, I think, was involved in the murder of a businessman somehow. Now, all the evidence backing this stuff up is classified. We only get the conclusions. But out of Russia Gate and the Mueller report, you kind of
Starting point is 00:14:27 get this like good and evil narrative where you've got kind of James Comey hewing to the, you know, the righteous side. And then you've got Trump, who's this dirty double dealer who's mixed up with all these murderous Russians. However, meanwhile, James Comey is actually appointing and handpicking Charlie McGonagall to lead the counterintelligence operation in the New York City field office. And then you have Charlie McGonigle going on to take money from Oleg Deripaska. So this allegation, you know, which McGongle's now been indicted for, really complicates this sort of good and evil binary, where Trump is doing things that are beyond the pale that no one would ever think of doing. And it really calls in a question, well, how bad is Deripaska? How abnormal was it
Starting point is 00:15:15 to be doing business or having an association with him? We know that in 2014, the FBI was actually trying to recruit Deripaska as an informant. And as someone who's cast as a villain, Deripaska is very interesting because he's very insistent that he's not the big bad wolf. And I've been corresponding with his press team quite a bit. And they ask for a lot of changes to the articles. And they say that none of these allegations are true. And he's really interested in trying to like rehabilitate his image in the West. You know, he's had real estate in London and New York and Washington that he's lost access to as relations between the U.S. and Russia have soured. And he wants to try and get back in to the West's good graces and is trying to
Starting point is 00:15:50 push back on all these things that the U.S. government is saying about him. And McGonigle, his hiring in McGonigle was part of this kind of full court press in 2018 right before the U.S. sanctioned him where Deripaska was basically just blasting out money like hundreds of thousands of dollars to crisis communications guys, investigative firms, lawyers all across New York and London. We're getting money from Oleg Deripaska to try and burnish his image and keep him from being sanctioned. And it didn't work, but a lot of people got paid. And Charlie McGonigal, according to the Southern District of New York, was one of these people. Now, the final main character in the story is Sergei Shestikov, a former Russian diplomat.
Starting point is 00:16:30 So what is his deal? So Sergei Shestikov was the chief of staff to the Soviet Union's ambassadors to the United Nations. So this is a guy, if he wasn't part of Russian intelligence, he certainly had Russian intelligence ties. Now, I don't know how he first met Charlie McGonigal. That's something I'm trying to report out. I think it's a very interesting question. But eventually, Shestikov becomes a U.S. citizen and becomes a translator for the Southern District of New York. And then he becomes, and then at a certain point, he's acquainted
Starting point is 00:16:58 with Charlie McGonagall. And we know from Allison Guerrero's account that Shestikov and McGonigal would have dinner. And at these dinners, three or four times, Allison witnessed Sergei Shestikov, the former, you know, diplomat for the Soviet Union handing Charlie McGonagel envelopes. Manila envelopes look like they contain documents, not the kind of envelopes that would contain cash, like a thin manila envelope. Now, what was in the envelopes? we don't know. Shestakov is McGonigle's co-defendant. So he was setting up some of this business that McGonigal was alleged to have been doing with Deripaska. He was kind of one of the go-betweens and who was also making money off of these deals with Deripaska and was connecting him with one of
Starting point is 00:17:42 Deripaska's employees, a guy by the name of Yvgeny Fokin, who runs one of Deripaska's companies in London or helps run it and also has reputed to have ties to Russian intelligence. So, you know, if you sort of take a Russiagate type of lens, a molar report or Mado type of lens, you know, to this fact chain, as some people have, you would see like a vast, you know, Russian intelligence operation that had fully penetrated the FBI. And that, you know, that's not impossible. That's kind of like a worst case scenario here. But, you know, McDonnell and Chesikov haven't been charged with espionage. And we don't know exactly what was going on. It's possible to everything in the envelopes was totally above board. But it looks, you know, from what we know, it's super sketchy. Well, and also, you know, when you use names like, you know, connected to like the intelligence agencies and like, you know, these secret meetings where like envelopes weren't changed, you know, the only, I mean, maybe I'm just speaking for myself, but, but the only archetype I have for
Starting point is 00:18:43 that, those kind of things happening is in like spy movies or, or, you know, a Tom Clancy video game or something. And so it's really hard not to, you know, because in the movies, it's because everybody's guilty. There is a conspiracy. You know, that's, you know, why the movie is exciting. And so it's really hard to hear all of these names and these types of actions and the connections and not automatically just assume that it is leading up to what you said, the worst case scenario or the, or, you know, or in other words, the most exciting, you know, scenario.
Starting point is 00:19:15 Yeah, I mean, you know, another, you know, perhaps more realistic scenario is that this was just sort of flirting and that they were trying to see, or that, you know, Derpaska or one of someone in McGonagall's world was trying to see how far they could push him and what they could get out of him and that, you know, it's possible that the U.S. government got onto this and cut it off while it was still at first base or second base. You know, the FBI's been pushing back on a lot of the reporting that's come out and they've been trying to say that, well, like, it's not, it's not espionage. It's just a case of greed. But it doesn't have to be one or the other. It can, it can it can absolutely be both. So, I mean, if we can't, you know, jump to the worst case scenario
Starting point is 00:19:53 right now, but what exactly is McGongle accused of actually doing, according to the indictments? So he's accused of taking, the biggest thing he's accused of doing is taking about half a million dollars in money from Oleg Deripaska through a sort of cutout corporation. But after Oleg, this was in 2019, this is after Oleg Deripaska was sanctioned by the U.S. government. And it was illegal to take any money from him, which Charlie McGonigal, who according to the indictments had seen some of the underlying intelligence that led to Deripas being indicted, no one would have known that better than Charlie McGonagall. So he was taking money, a lot of it, from a Russian oligarch that was illegal for him to take. He's also accused of lying on a bunch of his FBI paperwork about trips that he
Starting point is 00:20:40 took to Albania and elsewhere, where he said he was doing official business, but he had some unofficial business mixed in as well. And he was also having his flights and his hotels comped by some of his business associates. And he did not disclose any of this on his official FBI travel forms. So he's also charged with lying on these government forms. Oh, McGonigal thought he was above the law, planning his retirement. Yeah, no, it's a little, it's a little strange, you know, like, you know, what did he, did he think he could get a, you know, it's either very brazen or very stupid or he thought he could just kind of like fix it somehow or there were other people involved and he thought it was it was above board could he really be
Starting point is 00:21:26 that dumb that's sort of like a question that a lot of a lot of i'm asking a lot of people have said like can he actually have been this dumb to have done this or or does there have to kind of be something else here you know but no i like i like i like the way i like the way you put it i should you know yeah but i mean yeah if i've if i've learned one thing from this podcast you know as long as we've been doing it. It's that you'll find that people, just because somebody is at a very high-ranking position in the government or law enforcement, does not mean that they can't also be incredibly dumb. Right. Yeah. I mean, I guess here's a scary thing, right? Like, is this what passes for normal in the FBI now? Yeah. Like, what else did McGonigal witness that led him to
Starting point is 00:22:06 believe that this sort of thing wouldn't attract notice? Yeah, I mean, some of the pushback from the FBI is probably just trying to convince people that they are actually more airtight, then they look, uh, from this. Right. I guess, yeah, I guess I would imagine it's like, it's like you, you say like, you know, the head of counter intel at the New York field office. Like, it's like, man, this guy must be a master at OPSEC. He must, you know, must like, you know, always make sure he's not being followed and lock down all of its devices and not doing things that would like, you know, make his romantic partners extremely mad at him. But, uh, that wound up not being the case. Yeah. Yeah. It does seem like you could make a good argument that
Starting point is 00:22:45 that this guy was, at a minimum, over-promoted. Yeah. I mean, that's sort of the best case scenario, right? But, yeah. Maybe he failed up like I have at most jobs. You know, that's, I always think about this kind of stuff that, you know, even though there's so much, you know, prestige, I think, assigned to a lot of these institutions, it's like still a job.
Starting point is 00:23:06 Like, you still have some coworkers who, like, you're cool with, some coworkers or you're not. You have ways that, you know, to kind of skirt around the rules. If you've been there long enough, you know. You know, somebody who, you know, if you're working at Jay Cruz, say, and, you know, guy across the street is working at Hollister, you can have lunch together and have a, you know, there's no love loss. Plus, if you, you know, you're like, hey, I had a good career, you know, and this is not to say he was, you know, clean before this, but maybe he's like, yeah, it's reaching the end. Maybe I'll, you know, bank a couple millions from doing some shady stuff before I exit. Yeah, this is what happened at the end of training day. Well, not at the end of training day, but like it's one of the main plot points is that there's.
Starting point is 00:23:45 There's this senior detective who is essentially, like, done a really, like, dirty deal that's essentially going to break him off, you know, enough money that he can sort of live for the rest of his life or go, you know, live somewhere tropical. I mean, you know, same thing, basically, except he gets killed by Denzel Washington. Yeah, like Carlito's away, too, right? Like, yeah, yeah, exactly. One more. Just one and then I'm out. So basically, we're blaming African Americans and Hispanic people when really it's the Irish Americans we had to worry about the whole time. One of the interesting things that McGongle is accused of doing is meeting with someone who work for an Albanian intelligence agency and meeting with the prime minister of Albania.
Starting point is 00:24:24 And I have to confess, I don't quite know how Albania plays the geopolitics. So why would they be interested in meeting with an ex-FBI agent? Well, I think, you know, let me, let me think about that for a second. Why would why would high-ranking Albanians be interested in? and meeting with an FBI agent. I mean, there's a lot of speculation about this in Albania right now. Clearly, well, it seems from the indictments that McGonigle was holding himself out as like a high-ranking American U.S. intel official who knew a lot of stuff and could get stuff done.
Starting point is 00:25:00 He bragged once to someone that he'd met Angela Merkel. I don't know if that's true or not. But, I mean, I think, you know, I think for it's not, I wouldn't say the prime minister of Albania is like out of his league or anything. thing. And if he claims he can get stuff done, he probably would be, you know, like a person of interest. It's possible that he met. He could have met the prime minister who, you know, in New York at one of these UN events. I don't know if that, if that happened or not. What's clear is that he had this Albanian friend in New York, this guy, Agron Neza, who, according to the indictments,
Starting point is 00:25:31 gave him bags and bags of cash and kind of served as his fixer for, for these Albanian meetings where he performed all kinds of different services and lobbying allegedly for the Albanian prime minister in a circle. I also sort of feel like if there's kind of like a dirty, like high-ranking FBI official, that other countries or other intelligence or whoever kind of be like, oh yeah, well, there's this kind of dirty guy who's like willing to get you and he's not afraid to break rules. I feel like, you know, that becomes a very attractive person that you want to meet to see if may, hey, maybe there's something that can be done. Yeah, that's something I've wondered, is, you know, reporting on this, like, if this guy had a shingle out, there would have been, like, a pretty long line to get in on some of that if he was, like, delivering at all. So, you know, is there, is there more? I think it's a question worth asking, you know, and it's possible that they have more. It's possible the government knows more and they're holding it back because they, there's something that they want out of him for it, you know, that's just a scenario. Yeah. My conspiracy theory is that the Albanians were trying to rehab their image after the Taken films because these guys are portrayed as like, you know, child traffickers and all this
Starting point is 00:26:42 stuff. I mean, they're the bad guys consistently in every Taken movie, you know? So maybe they were trying to, sure, to rehab that. Yeah. Yeah. All right. Travis, get us back on track. So how did McGonigal get caught? I mean, how long was the FBI on to what he was doing? Because like we said, despite the fact that he was supposedly a season counterintel official, he didn't cover his tracks very well. So what exactly did him in? Do we know that? I do know a little bit about that. And I did a bunch of digging into this question. It turns out that in 2018, McGonagall went to London. And when he was in London, he met a high-ranking Russian who was under surveillance. The British were already surveilling this Russian. Now, this Russian may or may not have been Oleg Deripaska. I
Starting point is 00:27:33 I don't know either way, but he was important enough for the British to be surveilling him. And then McGonagall met with this person, and then the British were alarmed. And they were like, what's going on here? We weren't informed of this. And they called up the U.S. embassy. And they said, what's going on? And then the U.S. was like, oh, we didn't, they didn't know about it. So that, according to my reporting, was part of the reason, part of the predication for the FBI opening investigation into McGonogel.
Starting point is 00:28:01 Now, McGonigle left the FBI. September of 2018. We don't know if this meeting with the Russian happened before or after he left, but it seems, from what I know, that the FBI needed this tip from the British in order to, that was, I don't know this for certain, but it seems quite likely that that was, that was the first they heard that there might be an issue with this guy. That's, I mean, that's kind of crazy. I don't know. It's like, again, he's like, you'd think he would know that this, this individual would be surveilled, considering his counterintel background. I guess it was just one of the sloppy mistakes. Yeah, no, no. It goes back to that same question. Could he really have been this dumb or is there
Starting point is 00:28:40 something else going on here? I mean, he does, there is something in the indictments where he taught, where he's doing a favor for one of the oligarchs associate's daughters. And he explains to a supervisor, I'm doing this because I'm trying to recruit this guy as a source. So maybe he, maybe that was the story he was telling himself, you know, just like he was telling himself, hypothetically, I'm going to marry my girlfriend Allison and leave my wife. He may have been telling himself, I'm not really going to work for the Russians. I'm just trying to find out what they're all about so I can recruit them as a source as a part of my work as a super spy. I mean, that could have been one of one of the number of things that would be going through his head. But we know he eventually
Starting point is 00:29:19 took the money. He took half a million dollars from Deripaska illegally. And before you do that as an FBI agent or as an ex-FBI agent, before you do something illegal, you have to file a piece a paper with the attorney general and you have to get someone from DOJ to sign off and say, okay, you can do this illegal thing because it's part of your investigation for X, Y, Z. And we know about in advance. So now your ass is covered. He didn't do that. So by the time he took this half a million dollars, he definitely, if indeed he did do
Starting point is 00:29:47 that, it's just an allegation. But, you know, that's really crossing a line. You're not, you're not like trying to recruit someone anymore. You're just getting paid. Yeah, like that can't be a real thing, right? where you would like, like, you would go to the DOJ and they'd be like, oh, you know what? Like, this would be a pretty good get for us. So, you know what?
Starting point is 00:30:05 Enjoy. That's a half a million dollar bonus. Like, does that really happen? Well, I don't think, I mean, I think hypothetically maybe like they might sign off on a, on a meeting, you know. Yeah. But, but that, it doesn't seem like that happened. Yeah. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:30:19 There's no way that they would let somebody get, you know, just like personally enrich themselves by doing something, you know, that even, even if it did sort of first. the agenda of the bureau. Right. I mean, I'm sure something like that has happened you would think, but I would assume they would put the money in escrow or something or give it back at the end of the process. Let's hope maybe this is me being a little bit naive, you know, in my, yeah. Yeah, who knows how these things, you know, it's all pretty, it's all pretty arcane. I know from another piece actually, too, this is a different piece. I was writing about someone who claimed to be a CIA asset and they'd had some contacts with the CIA, but they really wanted to make it seem like they were an operative,
Starting point is 00:31:01 and they wanted to use that as part of their legal defense was my understanding. But the CIA can actually call DOJ, and this happens sometimes, and they'll say, this is one of our guys, please, like, don't charge him with this and that, because he was doing it for us. And this has happened before. They do it every so often. But the guy I'm talking about was kind of, you know, full of shit. It wasn't really true in this.
Starting point is 00:31:21 He didn't get one of these special get out of jail free car. But the card does exist. That was the point of that anecdote. There is a CIA get out of jail free card that does, from time of time, let people do, you know, bad things on an ends justify the means basis and then get charged and then DOJ will agree to turn a blind eye to it if they feel like on a cost-benefit analysis, that's what, you know, ought to happen. That makes sense to me. Sorry, I feel like this is turning to like lawfare or something. I'm getting very a kidding, no, I have like a thousand questions. I have to like, I have to like actively mute myself to make sure Travis gets his questions in. Just fascinated, fascinated by all this in the same way that
Starting point is 00:31:58 most people are. You know, it is like a real world sort of spy story and everything that that entails. Yeah, no, I mean, people at this level just aren't supposed to get caught. I mean, that's what it's the one reason why this has gotten so much attention. Whatever they're doing, we're sort of never supposed to learn about it. Right. And something, something in the order of things broke down here. And everyone's trying to kind of figure out exactly what that was. This case has sparked a lot of conspiracy theories. It's also inflamed a lot of like partisan grievances over the 2016 election and subsequent investigation into the Trump campaign. So I was hoping you can help us like clarify what is and is not known about the case. You mentioned that,
Starting point is 00:32:39 for example, that you, we can't like rule out the possibility that there's like some sort of espionage component to this case. But I mean, is there any reason to believe that or is that pure speculation at this point? I mean, it is pure speculation at this point, but it's not the craziest speculation. We know from the indictments that McGonigal met with Deripaska in Vienna and in London. That's stated in the indictments. And if he talked to Deripaska about any classified information, including this is the classified intelligence, which is the reason that you might be sanctioned or have been sanctioned Mr. Deripaska, that would be espionage. He would be, I believe, at least that's my understanding, that could be construed as espionage.
Starting point is 00:33:19 You're giving up classified information to someone who's like an agent of a foreign government, according to the Treasury Department. So it's not, it's speculation, but it's not like the biggest leap. But maybe when you say espionage, you're meaning more like, I'm like performing queries for Vladimir Putin direct into the FBI database and handing the envelopes or something. I mean, that would be a bigger leap. Yeah, well, yeah, because like, I was like there's some precedent for like an FBI agent,
Starting point is 00:33:44 like being like a double agent for Russian intelligence. There's a case like Robert Hanson, who was convicted in 2001 of that crime. Right. And he is going to spend the rest of his life in a supermax prison for that. That's a very, very serious charge. But McGonigal, he was released on half a million dollars bail. So doesn't that suggest that he's not really that much of a flight risk? So he's not under threat of that kind of like serious prison time? Yeah. No, a lot of folks who know a lot more about the federal justice system than I do have said that the fact they let him out on bail means that they don't feel like they've got, you know, they don't think there is an espionage risk here. It's just a very, very hard scenario to completely rule out.
Starting point is 00:34:29 I would really want to know a little more about his relationship with Shestakov before I rule it out personally. This is just me and my own tinfoil hat, but it's very possible that they let him out on bail because they wanted to see where he was going to go walk to, who he was going to have coffee with, and they didn't want to, you know, they wanted to like keep observing him in the wild, so to speak, because they had their own questions that they, the government had their own questions. They felt that he would be easier for them to get answers with him out. But I think, yeah, we don't know that it was espionage. And it's reasonably likely that he was just being kind of groomed and his various patrons were seeing how much mileage they could get out of him
Starting point is 00:35:10 for how much money and that there was a risk that something might happen in the future but that nothing had happened yet that's a that's a very you know defensible way of you know kind of looking at what we know yeah i mean the other thing that was kind of like confusing to me or less unclear to me was who exactly i guess what gongle was serving in his relationship with deripaska because like you mentioned darrapaska has his own particular business interest he wants to like you know become have a better image of the West. You know, he's described as being a member of Putin's inner circle. But he's also like kind of strayed from the official state line in some ways. For example, he's criticized invasion of Ukraine, which has cost him in Russia. But, I mean, that naturally raises the
Starting point is 00:35:54 question. So, I mean, did McGonle's relationship with Deripaska make him an agent of the Kremlin or merely an agent of Deripaska's personal business interests? Yeah, no, no, that's a really good question. You know, it raises the question going back to the, you know, Manafort-Colimic meeting. Is Constantine Kalimnik actually a Russian spy? Should we believe the governments, should we take the U.S. government at their word that he is an asset of the Kremlin? Because that's all we really have to go on. They haven't given us the underlying evidence of Deripaska's Kremlin ties or Kalimik's Kremlin ties. And Deripaska, it seems, is somewhere in the middle.
Starting point is 00:36:29 And his views on Russia have moved around over the years. And clearly in 2014, the U.S. thought he was close enough to us that we should take a shot at trying to win him over. Now, that didn't work, but it's, yeah, we don't, we don't, that's, that's a really big question here, like, what was McGonagall paid for? According to the indictments, it was for opposition research on, on one of Deripaska's rivals. And that's something that Deripaska does a lot. He hires law firms and due diligence firms to try and gain leverage on his various business partners because he feels like he's not getting enough money out of them or whatever. And it could very well have, have been, you know, nothing more than that. There could be no, you know, Kremlin aspect to it at all. could entirely be like a private business matter with someone who, you know, our government said you're, it's illegal to do any business with. I want to ask you about the alleged involvement that McGonigal had in Crossfire Hurricane. This is the FBI counterintelligence investigation into, in 2016, 2017 that looked into whether Trump and members of his campaign were working with the Russian government's efforts to interfere in the 2016 election. So I did read that
Starting point is 00:37:37 according to the DOJ Inspector General's report on the FISA applications of Carter Page, McGuagall was involved in forwarding the tip from the Australians to D.C. headquarters regarding possible Russian involvement in the Trump campaign. So given that, is there any reason to believe that he, like, influenced the FBI investigation in a malicious way? There's no evidence that he influenced the FBI investigation in a malicious way. He was, you know, as you've laid out, kind of present at creation for the Crossfire Hurricane investigation and handled this essential incoming tip from, you know, from an Australian diplomat about George Papadopoulos that, at least according to the official version of Crossfire Hurricane, this is when the FBI
Starting point is 00:38:18 really started looking at Trump's Russia ties. So he is kind of like this Z-Lig-like figure, McGonagall, like popping up at these like crucial points in the the Russiagate saga. But there's nothing to suggest that he, you know, threw the case for a loop or sabotage it in any way. my understanding is he did not have any kind of role in Mueller's team. You know, Mueller had a whole team of people who were grinding on this for years. And I don't think McGonagall, had he been tasked with sabotaging Crossfire Hurricane, which I don't think he was, I don't think he would have been capable of doing so. If you look at just how much scrutiny was applied to Trump Russia, you know, for years and years and
Starting point is 00:38:59 years, it would take much more than one guy to derail that and to keep the people who are digging on that from finding whatever they wanted. I mean, the amount of paper you can see is from Jason Leopold's foyes, the number of FPI 302 forms. It's just thousands and thousands of pages and labor. And like, you know, he had a job to do in the meantime. So I don't think this idea of him being a Russian plant that we would have gotten, we would have pinned down Trump collusion but for Charlie McGonigal.
Starting point is 00:39:27 I think it's a pretty, pretty silly hypothesis. Yeah, I mean, he already sounds super sloppy, even just going into this. You know, the, you know, we've been talking about this, you know, almost the entire episode, how it's like, was he really this dumb? So it's, yeah, it's hard for me to believe at least that a guy who is so sloppy in this other way was, you know, the mastermind who like never got caught somehow in like derailing all of Mueller's, you know, lawyers and researchers and all of that. Well, I think, I mean, there's a lot of people who are really emotionally invested in the Trump-Russian narrative and who were unsatisfied by Mueller's report were unsatisfied. on where the facts are landed and are sort of desperately looking for that missing peace that will allow them to provide some evidence to support with what they believed all along, which is that Trump is some sort of witting Russian agent who takes his orders directly from
Starting point is 00:40:20 the Kremlin, which is a hypothesis that some people have just simply will not let go of and will, I mean, that's that's one thing about McGonnell. The story is interesting to me is that people are willing to go to such a length to use him to try and make that true when it's just such a stretch. It is. Yeah. A lot of like, you know, serious people have made some really kind of crazy accusations that he, the Goggle may have actually, like, harmed the presidential campaign of Hillary Clinton. Like you mentioned in your story, this was kind of insinuated by Timothy Snyder, Yale historian. There's also a lot of insinuations made by Senator Whitehouse in a letter to Attorney General Garland. So, Jake, could you read this letter, please? Yeah, absolutely.
Starting point is 00:41:07 Because McGonicle was the special agent in charge of the FBI's New York Field Office Counterintelligence Division in the weeks leading up to the 2016 election, he may have knowledge or have participated in political activities to damage then-candidate Hillary Clinton and help then-candidate Donald Trump. For instance, during that time period, Rudy Giuliani announced that a, quote, big surprise related to Secretary Clinton would be forthcoming from the FBI, hinting he, received that information from the New York field office. The very next day, director James Comey, reportedly bowing to internal pressure from that
Starting point is 00:41:41 office, broke the FBI's ordinary policy of declining to comment on ongoing matters close to an election and announced that the FBI would reopen its investigation into Secretary Clinton's use of a private email server in light of the discovery of emails on Anthony Weiner's laptop. I feel like I've stepped into a time machine that has taken me back right into 2016, all over again. Yeah. Senator White House, he doesn't make any outright allegations there. But what do you make of like the insinuations there that he was like possibly responsible for the, you know, the Giuliani leaks? Well, I may have been inadvertently responsible for pouring some gas on this because Allison Guerrero,
Starting point is 00:42:19 who's, who's, you know, the big source for a lot of the, you know, not my only source, but is like her account is kind of the spine of a couple of the longer stories I wrote. She has a relationship of some kind with Rudy Giuliani, their friend. and they've known each other for a while. And people have used that to sort of make a leap and assume that, okay, well, then she must have been the one who leaked this information, you know, must have come from McGonagall. I really don't think that's true, just kind of having been immersed in the texture of this up close.
Starting point is 00:42:51 I mean, one thing to keep in mind with Giuliani is, you know, he worked, you know, he worked for the Southern District of New York, he was the mayor, he's, you know, been in New York law enforcement circles for decades. The number of contacts he has at the New York City field office, which has 2,000 employees. I mean, he doesn't need a Charlie McGonagall. He's got, you know, dozens and dozens of guys that he's close to. I mean, I think the inspector general found that four FBI agents had been, you know, in touch with his office at various times. I think they found that through phone records. So it's not impossible that McGonigle was a source of the leak. I just think it's very, very, very unlikely.
Starting point is 00:43:32 And Allison's account, Allison's a very pro-Trump MAGA person who still believes, you know, we have some substantial disagreements about how the last election turned out, you know, among other things. But, you know, she gave me an account of McGonnell's politics.
Starting point is 00:43:48 And his politics seemed pretty, you know, pretty lukewarm. He doesn't seem to be so pro-Trump or pro-Hillary. He did not strike her as like a political firebrand. Now, of course, she could just be telling. me that because this whole thing is some sort of op. And I'm just incredibly naive and believe everything I'm told and don't, don't check it all. But a lot of, you know, the important aspects of her
Starting point is 00:44:09 account to me, they did check out. And I think she's telling me the truth. And I don't think that McGonigle, from what I can tell, was interested in putting his finger on the scale politically on one way or the other. Well, and it also doesn't seem like anything McGonogel did either forced or prevented the FBI from announcing that they were opening that investigation in the first place. So that that information would have come out anyway. So yeah, yeah, no, no, I haven't. You know, no, that's that's right. That's right. It has a super fascinating story. I'm sure it'll keep unfolding in the coming months and years. But I also wanted to get your perspective on Russian influence operations, because you also reported about a Russian troll farm based
Starting point is 00:44:51 in Mexico. You discovered the details of a company called Social CMS, which is actually run by a Russian warlord named Yvgeny Pragozen. He happens to be the guy who founded the notorious internet research agency in St. Petersburg. Briefly, so what did you discover about the operations of Social CMS? So at Insider, working with some other publications, including Politico and this German newspaper, Wealth, we got this vast, vast tranche of documents from inside of Progo. operation. And they showed us, you know, there are letters between that he sent to Bashar Assad during the Syrian War asking for medals for his Wagner Group mercenaries. There are requests for rebates on cargo ships that he purchased for the Russian Navy. And there are all these detailed
Starting point is 00:45:40 budgets and invoices for influence operations around the world, including subcontractors in Mexico. So I was actually able to get on the phone with someone who, who had unwittingly been one of these progosian influence operation subcontractors and was posting on to Instagram about feminism, about Hispanic positive thinking memes, about Black Lives Matter during the run-up to the 2020 election. And then the FBI got onto this and shut it down shortly before the election. They let Facebook know about it and Facebook shut it down.
Starting point is 00:46:16 But this whole story kind of goes against the prevailing kind of like Matt Taibi, Twitter 5. where like there's no such thing as foreign interference and whenever the government and big tech are working together they're plotting to do evil and snuff out free speech now I think some of the Twitter file stuff has been quite useful especially Lee Fang's report about um you know what what the Department of Defense was doing in the Middle East with um you know using inauthentic accounts to spread pro-American propaganda essentially however this doesn't mean that there aren't actually like bad people out there using the internet to do bad shit and that the government is within
Starting point is 00:46:55 its rights to put their foot down sometimes and, you know, tell the platforms what they've discovered. That's clearly what happened here. Did that answer your question? Yeah. Yeah, that's really, yeah, that's really fascinating. I mean, it is really interesting to hear about the continuation of these Russian operations in like, you know, 2020 and beyond because it seems like we're in the middle of like a kind of reassessment of what exactly happened with regards to Russian influence and Russian operations in 2016. And this has come first and foremost in the form of this massive 24,000 word report in the Columbia Journalism Review all the media's reporting on alleged Trump-Russian links. So the report is very controversial, not very flattering to the press.
Starting point is 00:47:39 It talks about, for example, the press's overly credulous treatment of the steel dossier, which made a lot of sensational claims about Trump and Russians, which turned out to be either inaccurate or unverifiable. So I'm curious, you know, as someone who like break stories related to these Russian operations, what do you make of that CGR report and the reporting that was done during the Mueller investigation? The reporting, I'm sorry, the reporting that was done during the Mueller, oh, you mean like what the media was doing during the Mueller investigation? I just want to understand the second after the question. Yeah. I think the CGR piece, I liked it. I think it got a lot of important things right and they were things that know and said yet. One is just,
Starting point is 00:48:14 the role of Glenn Simpson and Fusion GPS. This guy was everywhere in 2016. The number of high-level meetings he had with top editors at every brand name publication. I'm not going to say the specific names, but I know this, you know, firsthand, second-hand, that guy was spreading a ton of stuff and had a massive footprint on how Trump was covered. And no one's really, you know, until I read the CJR piece, I had not seen anyone pin the tail. on the donkey. Another thing that Girt gets right is the Russian narrative and the Cambridge Analytica narrative. They were good business for the media. People ate them up. And the media has been shifting and being part of the media to a traffic-based model where you give the people what they want.
Starting point is 00:49:01 People love these stories. And I think the people's appetite for this particular set of facts and also a certain amount of speculation that influenced the coverage. And I think I think Goethe is right about that. The decision to publish the dossier was incredibly consequential. And it led to all kinds of ripple effects in Trump's psychology, Trump's relationship with the FBI. And it's kind of insane that that document was ever taken seriously by anyone. Now, at the same time, I don't think the Gert's story says that the Russiagate thing was a total scam. I certainly don't think it was. I mean, the Klamic Manafort meeting is very concerning and pretty inappropriate and pretty shocking that you would have
Starting point is 00:49:48 the head of a major candidate's presidential campaign having a private off the books meeting with a guy who is alleged at least to have links to Russian intelligence and is handing him internal data. That really happened and that that is not good. Also the DNC hacks, which, you know, are alleged to have been done by Russian intelligence. Those had a real impact. I know that there are people who would probably disagree with me about this, but I was at the DNC in 2016. the Bernie people were really mad because of material in those hacks. And those hacks really did kind of fuck up the convention and change the tone for the rest of the race. So when people say, oh, you know, Russia only spent this small amount of money on Facebook ads. They didn't really
Starting point is 00:50:27 get that many impressions. They're sort of ignoring the the hack and leak component of it that I think really did have a big impact. Yeah, you know, actually, I mean, I do agree that the hack and leak component was much more consequential than some of the other stuff they're talking about, especially like the social media operations, which got a lot of press. Because, you know, I think, you know, once you solve the mystery of, like, what these foreign influence operations did on social media, you haven't yet solved the mystery of, like, what the ultimate, like, consequence or what the ultimate result is, because that's, that's a separate question. And, you know, at first glance, you know, it seems like in 2016, like these, these operations were, like, massively influential. I'm thinking
Starting point is 00:51:04 of one Twitter account specifically. It was called 10 GOP. I think it was, like, the biggest, most famous one that was run out of the Internet Research Agency. And, uh, it's a It got over 100,000 followers. It was retweeted by people in Trump world like Kellyanne Conway, Michael Flynn. It wound up even getting mentioned by a bunch of mainstream outlets as if it was a legitimate account. You know, but more broadly, there was a recent study published in the journal Nature, which concluded that Russian Twitter accounts didn't really affect how people voted.
Starting point is 00:51:31 Now, that study is called exposure to the Russian Internet Research Agency for an influence campaign on Twitter in the 2016 U.S. election and its relationship to attitudes and voting behavior. It found that Russian influence operations on Twitter in that election reached relatively few users, most of whom were highly partisan Republicans, and the Russian accounts had no measurable impact in changing minds or influencing voter behavior. So, you know, that's just one platform. It doesn't take into account, for example, Facebook, which is a much larger platform. And I think the Facebook operations were kind of more interesting. One of my favorite stories about Russian influence in the 2016 election is that two Russian-run Facebook pages
Starting point is 00:52:11 organized competing rallies outside of an Islamic center in Houston. So there was a Russian-controlled Facebook group called Heart of Texas that advertised a rally to stop Islamification of Texas in May of 2016. And there was a separate Russian-sponsored group called United Muslims of America, which advertise a Save Islamic Knowledge Rally for the same place in time. And sure enough, there was two competing protests on that day. So, I mean, I would disagree with anyone who argues that the impact of, like, these operations is zero, but it's just, according to this study, at least, on Twitter, the internet research agency mostly succeeded in creating more content for the right-wing echo chamber.
Starting point is 00:52:49 Now, obviously, it's not easy to determine the impact of, like, social media campaigns, but what do you think is the ultimate result of, you know, these kinds of campaigns conducted by internet research agency and social CMS? So when we think about the impact of this Russian influence, operations. We also know the Russians were like probing voter rolls and voter systems. And I think one, you know, one scenario I've heard, you know, from smart folks is that maybe they wanted to be discovered doing this. Maybe all they wanted to do was call into question the legitimacy of the democratic process. And the legitimacy ultimately of, well, Trump won. But then a lot of people
Starting point is 00:53:26 still don't accept that that was true. And then you get an even, you know, sort of bigger echo of that in in 2024, I'm sorry, in 2020, where you've got, you know, Trump folks just making stuff up about the result. But I think the biggest impact of the 2016 operation was really leaving this question of Trump's legitimacy unsettled. So many people had so much vested in Clinton winning. So many important, powerful people knew how they would benefit and what their next job would be. And those people all needed a story that they could have. agree on for why Trump had not won on the merits. And Russia provided a way to do that. Now, that doesn't mean that there was no there there. That doesn't mean that there wasn't an
Starting point is 00:54:12 internet research agency. But it does explain why this narrative caught fire and was so, you know, instantly adopted by a very diverse and vocal group that suddenly found themselves cast out of power and was angry about it. One thing that really influenced my thinking about these influence operations came from a New York Times report published in September of last year. It was on these operations that attempted to create divisions in the women's marsh movement. And that report included a passage and I think articulated the challenges of assessing these kinds of operations. Now, could you read this for me, Jake? It is maddeningly difficult to say with any certainty what effect Russian influence operations have had on the United States, because when
Starting point is 00:54:53 they took hold, they piggy-packed on real social divisions. Once pumped into American discourse, Russian trace vanishes like water that has been added to a swimming pool. This creates a conundrum for disinformation specialists, many of whom say the impact of Russian interventions has been overblown. After the 2016 presidential election, blaming unwelcome outcomes on Russia became, quote, the emotional way out, said Thomas Ridd, author of active measures, the secret history of disinformation and political warfare. It's playing a trick on you, said Dr. Ridd, a professor at John Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies. You've become a useful idiot if you ignore effective info ops, but also if you talk it up by telling a story, if you make it more
Starting point is 00:55:34 powerful than it is. It's a trick. I thought that was really interesting because I think a lot of well-meaning people act as if caution or skepticism or even nuance about the impact of influence operations, foreign influence operations, is equivalent to covering for them, as if you're helping these disinformation or division campaigns by suggesting that they might not be the only reason that half the country voted for Donald Trump. But here is, like, the guy who literally wrote the book on Russian active measures saying that if you overstate their effectiveness, then really you're the one who are helping the Russians because you're helping people think that these campaigns are massively successful, regardless of how successful they are in reality, because,
Starting point is 00:56:14 you know, really it just furthers their goal of sowing this paranoia and division. I guess what do you think about, like, you know, what comes with a risk of like, you know, exaggerating the effectiveness of these campaigns? Yeah, I don't know. I mean, I think he makes a good point. There's a certain risk there. And I think, you know, how are you ever going to be able to, there's sort of this, this sort of ideal of, you know, what a U.S. presidential campaign would be like in the absence of a
Starting point is 00:56:44 globalized media environment where you had an impenetrable firewall where no one who is not a U.S. citizen, their opinion would somehow be obvious. automatically silence because of its provenance. But we're never going to, if that were ever true in the past, I mean, I don't think we're ever going to get back there. I mean, it's like, I think the swimming pool analogy is exactly right. So this is just something, I mean, people are going to have to get smarter somehow and, you know, about this or they're, or they're just going to make, you know, dumb decisions on
Starting point is 00:57:15 the basis of the information that's been spoon fed to them by whoever's holding the spoon and trying to, you know, litigate. I mean, I think, I think the way, let me say this, I think the way this, I think the way this, progosian Mexico operation was handled by the FBI was actually pretty smart. They shut it down before the election, before it got too big, without a lot of hullabaloo. They didn't say, we've caught the giant Russian influence operation. They just noted it very briefly in like the 16th paragraph of some ODNI report that came out later. And then Facebook noted it in this like internal report. But they took it down, but they also didn't make too big a deal of it,
Starting point is 00:57:51 which is, which is kind of a happy median. I mean, I think, I think, you know, in 2016, I think the surprise of Trump's victory, you know, coincided with this huge worry inside the Obama administration that they hadn't done enough beforehand because they did know that it was going on. But they, but then, and then there was this temptation. I mean, James Clapp, General James Clapper says this in his memoir. I mean, a lot of people think a lot of people put their flag in the ground and said that the Russian interference was decisive in 2016. And if you, if, if, if that's your view, then you, you, as a consequence, you don't think Trump's like a legitimate president. And that, that leads to all of these knock on effects.
Starting point is 00:58:26 So I think the surprise of Trump's victory and the discovery of that there was a Russian influence operation, you know, led to kind of like this almost like perfect storm in 2016 that we still haven't found our way back from. Right. Like, it's way better that there were a overwhelming amount of people that looked at Donald Trump and said, yes, that's who I want to be president. Yes. And then it happened, you know, despite all of the coverage sort of, you know, essentially
Starting point is 00:58:52 saying that, you know, this is a slam down. dunk for Hillary Clinton, you know, moving beyond that, it's much easier to go like, well, of course, he never would have won if it hadn't been for all of these illegal sort of operations. That's a, it's way easier to hold on to than like, oh, my candidate, like, maybe didn't campaign as good as they should have or, you know, or our country is that fucked up that that they're willing to put somebody like Donald Trump in office. Yeah, no, no, I think, yeah, no, it's, it's easy, just putting it on the Russians is
Starting point is 00:59:21 and it's an easy way to avoid looking at the questions that you're raising there. You made a really good point about the DNC hack and how in a lot of ways, you know, that did a lot of damage because people saw internal messages from the campaign. That stuff, you know, ended up in Pizagate. It got baked into, you know, into what ultimately became Q&ON down the line. It also showed that the Clinton campaign and the DNC at large were, you know, essentially sabotaging maybe is the hard word, but sabotaging the Bernie Sanders campaign. Yeah. Getting the whole, the whole getting the AP to call it early. I think there was more on that in the emails too. And that was, that was a little funny. So no, I'm sorry.
Starting point is 01:00:02 Yeah. Go on. So my question was is what always like really weirded me out. And I, it might just be because I don't understand how this stuff works. But I always thought it was weird that the DNC, you know, because if that was, yes, indeed a Russian hacker, then that would amount to massive Russian, that would be a thing that came from Russian hackers or some kind of order from the Kremlin that I think did have a substantial impact on, you know, your voting population. So that's why I always thought it was very strange that, you know, the DNC rebuffed, you know, the request from the FBI to actually get their hands on the servers. There was this whole right wing narrative that was, you know, the DNC had hired this third party analyst, CrowdStrike, yeah. And that because CrowdStrike, you know, because they were the one who only got their hands on the server, you know, they doubted whether, you know, the hack actually had come from from Russia. I mean, I don't know if it matters who actually did the hack and then leaked it because I think the results were the same. But am I wrong? Did we ever get any more information about that that the FBI or law enforcement did actually get the servers and could
Starting point is 01:01:09 verify that it was in fact a Russian source, Gusefer 2.0 or whatever? No, this is like a great question. And let me just like, if I can jump back for a second, just because Jim Jordan is talking about something doesn't mean necessarily that we shouldn't pay attention to it. I think this is a common fallacy among reasonable people. So things like Fusion GPS and also a gain of function research with the origin of COVID. These are things that are worth obsessing about. They also happen to be things that Jim Jordan is obsessing about. And they're worthy of scrutiny. And just because unsurious people happen to be scrutinizing them, that doesn't invalidate the proposition that we're thinking about.
Starting point is 01:01:54 And in terms of, but you ask specifically about CrowdStrike, this is something I flagged too. I have never had the chance to go deep on. Do we know that the Russians hacked the DNC for sure, or was it just random hackers? My understanding is that does indeed hang on Crowdstrike's assessment and CrowdStrike was being paid by the DNC. Now, I believe, if I'm not mistaken, there are people who have been charged by the Department of Justice who are from the GRU with doing this hack,
Starting point is 01:02:28 if I remember right. But that doesn't make it true either. So did the Russian government hack the DNC? I mean, probably. Do I know for sure? I don't feel like I do. And it's a sort of thing I think you're right that I'd love to see someone go deep on
Starting point is 01:02:43 and ask, well, how do we, how do we really know that that's who's behind this. Now, there's also this sort of like, that can be taken too far with the whole sort of like just asking questions. Or tying it to the Seth Ridge murder. Right. Which is really what it was done in conspiracy circles, that information was used to to connect this leak to Seth Rich. Right, right, right. Yeah, I don't know. No, you're completely right. So like at what point, I mean, that's one thing is so hard, you know, that I think that your show's about, too. At some point, you have to trust. someone. If you're just totally skeptical of everything and are always looking for someone's
Starting point is 01:03:21 past connections to sort of invalidate what they say on some ad hominant basis, you're just going to, you're just going to wind them nowhere and believe that nothing at all is true. And in order to develop some sort of like operating and understand how the world works, you actually, you have to pick, you have to pick, okay, this is the set of evidence from this set of people who like I'm going to believe. But it's, it's really hard, especially when you see things going on. on like, you know, like the way the COVID origin narrative has changed, the way the Trump is a Russian agent, quote unquote, narrative, you know, has changed. It just, you know, it's not, there's no clear roadmap for, for, you know, who you should be getting stuff from on any particular
Starting point is 01:04:01 issue. It's extremely risky and it's a, it's a huge, the whole process is a huge headache. And I don't blame anyone who just wants to throw up their hands and be like, I don't want any part of this. The Kalimnik one, it's funny. The, the, the Manifor-Kolymnic thing, that's, the one. For some reason, I really, I've really taken the stand that Kalimnik is some kind of Russian agent or has ties to Russian intelligence. But why have I done that? I guess I believe it's true. I mean, our government has said that it's true, but I ping them and they won't, they don't explain how or why that they think is true. And, you know, I wish they would. But yeah, no, no, I mean, it's hard to escape the, the possibility that, like, Manaford and sort of McGonigal that there's
Starting point is 01:04:43 not necessarily, like, a big difference there. It could just be guys meeting with, you know, other guys trying to do some kind of deal. And it could be nothing more to it than that. It's just really, really, really hard to know. And they might not even know in the moment. I mean, that's kind of how it's different from the spy version movie, is that I think, you know, when these relationships are unfolding in real time, there's a lot of, there's a lot of ambiguity. about who's recruiting who, who's working for who, you know, and both sides are kind of feeling the other out. And then, you know, and then you can kind of like put a frame around it and call it and call it a conspiracy in retrospect based on stuff that happens later. Thanks so much for coming
Starting point is 01:05:19 on the show, Matt. Where can people find your work? So folks can find my work at a business insider that's business insider.com. And I also, you know, have written a series of profiles of senior officials for the New York Times Magazine, where I, you know, sit down and talk to these guys for, you know, an hour, hour and a half or so. You can go back and look at those. There's Bill Barr, James Clapper. That one was for GQ. John Brennan, that's probably my favorite one of these, and Mike Pompeo. And then I also give a Soup to Nuts account of Comey and Trump in their face-off. But Business Insider is where I work. It's where I'm writing about McGonigle. And you can also follow my tweets at Schwartz-esque. That's just Schwartz. E-S-Q-U-E.
Starting point is 01:06:02 Thanks for listening to another episode of the Q&On Anonymous podcast. You can go to patreon.com slash Q&ONANonymous and sub for five bucks a month to get a whole second episode for every main one plus access to our entire archive of premium episodes. There are over 200 of them. And of course, access to our ongoing past and future series, like trickle down, like Man Klan, like the unnamed series that Brad and Jake are working on. And if you are already a subscriber, thanks so much. It helps us stay advertising free and editorially independent. For everything else, we've got a website, QAnonanonymous.com. Listener, until next week, may the McGonicals bless you.
Starting point is 01:06:42 And deep. Wait. And deep you? And deep you? And deep you? And deep you. No, I think that's good. That's it.
Starting point is 01:06:49 Final take, good, perfect. Who cares, right? Who cares? Deep you? Who cares? All right, I'll do it. Good. Give a shit.
Starting point is 01:06:56 No. No, this is all in. If you want to keep talking, I mean, we can have this last longer. see at the end of the episode, but this is way funnier than you getting it right, so. It's a jewel. This is a jewel. Bless you and keep you. There's it right for the editor
Starting point is 01:07:10 just in case. Sneak it in at the last. Yeah. It's not a conspiracy. It's fact. And now today's auto kill. The FBI guy after me for the Russia, Russia, Russia, Russia hoax, long before my election
Starting point is 01:07:26 as president, was just arrested for taking money from Russia, Russia, Russia. May he rot in hell.

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