Radiolab - Bloc Party

Episode Date: November 2, 2020

In the 1996 election, Bill Clinton had a problem. The women who came out in droves for him in ‘92, split their vote in the ‘94 midterms, handing over control of the House and the Senate to the Republican Party. As his team stared ahead at his re-election bid, they knew they had to win those women back. So, after a major polling effort to determine who exactly their undecided ladies were, Clinton turned his focus toward the most important swing vote in the election: the soccer moms.  The soccer mom ushered in a new era of political campaigning, an era of slicing and dicing the electorate, engineering the (predominately white) voting bloc characters that campaigns have chased after. Security Moms. Nascar Dads. Joe Six Pack. Walmart Moms.  But what about everyone else? What about the surprisingly swingable corners of this country without a soccer mom in sight?  Inspired by this exceedingly cool interactive map from Politico, we set out on a mission to make an audio-map of our own. We asked pollsters, reporters and political operatives in swing states: what slice of your population is up for grabs? A slice that no one talks about? In this episode, we crawl inside the places that might hold our country’s future in its hands, all the while asking: are these slices even real? Are there people inside them that might swing this election?  This episode was reported and produced by Becca Bressler, Tobin Low, Sarah Qari, Tracie Hunte, Pat Walters and Matt Kielty, with help from Jonny Moens. Special thanks to Darren Samuelsohn, Josh Cochran, Elizabeth Ralph, and the Politico team for the original reporting and map that inspired this episode.  Also thanks to: Elissa Schneider, Wisam Naoum, Martin Manna, Ashourina Slewo, Eli Newman, Zoe Clark, Erin Roselio, Jess Kamm Broomell, Will Doran, John Zogby, Matt Dickinson, Tom Jensen, Ross Grogg, Joel Andrus, Jonathan Tilove, Steve Contorno, Heaven Hale, Jeff Shapiro, Nicole Cobler, Marie Albiges, Matt Dole, Robin Goist, Katie Paris, Julie Womack, Matt Dole, Jackie Borchardt, Jessica Locklear, Twinkle Patel, Bobby Das, Dharmesh Ahir,  Nimesh Dhinubhai, Jay Desai, Rishi Bagga, and Sanjeev Joshipura. Christina Greer’s book is Black Ethnics: Race, Immigration, and the Pursuit of the American Dream, and Corey Fields book is Black Elephants in the Room: The Unexpected Politics of African American. Original art for this episode by Zara Stasi. Check out her work at:  www.goodforthebees.com.  Support Radiolab by becoming a member today at Radiolab.org/donate.    

Wait, you're listening. Okay. All right. Door listening to radio lab. Radio lab. From WNYC. Yeah. Lulu, yeah.

Hello. Hi. Can you hear me? Okay. I can hear you. All right. Do you have your orange slices? I've got them.

I have a confession. Hello, this is Radialab. I'm Lulu Miller. And recently, our producer Becca Bressler told me to call her up and somewhat mysteriously bring orange slices. She said it would help get me in the mood for the story she wanted to tell. I guess where do we start? So months ago, we decided to have this meeting

where everyone came to it with monoliths. Like what are groups that we think of as being monolithic? Like every video game player lives in his mom's basement and is a dude and you know, right. And at some point, the idea of soccer moms came up. OK. And like, of course, I've heard of the phrase, I played soccer.

I have a mom. But I got sort of curious about where she came from. Like, how does she become a monolith? Hmm. And so I started poking around. And what I learned is that she was born in the run-up to the 1996 presidential election. Tonight in the land of Lincoln, the Convention of Clinton, the Devil's Hand. Bill Clinton is running for re-election. He's the incumbent against Bob Dole, the Republican candidate.

And the soccer mom was this little slice of voters who helped hand him the election and completely changed the way political campaigns did what they do from that point forward. Okay. Hello. Hi Anne. And I should say I learned this story from these two women who worked on Bill Clinton's campaign that year. I joined formally around Labor Day 1995. And Lewis, Communications Director. And the Deputy Campaign Manager.

And, hey. Can you hear me okay? Yeah, I can hear you great. Post-ert still in the late. I was brought on to do some special project, including looking at women voters. So Clinton had won his first term in large part thanks to women voters. That's 92. But then in 94 drop off the women who had made a big difference in 92 less likely to vote. So in 1996 the Clinton campaign needed to convince those women to come back

to Clinton. And they started thinking like okay we can't just say hey women Clinton's your guy we need a way to focus our message we need to find a group of undecided women that was large enough to make a difference in the election, but cohesive enough that you could identify key issues they all cared about and tailor your message to them. Oh, interesting. And after doing a bunch of polling and research, they landed on this cluster of women who were moms, who lived in suburbia, who tended to be college educated, maybe in our 30s and 40s, tended to work outside the home, predominantly white, were more secular.

It was just a cluster of trade. But according to the polling, there were a lot, millions of them, and they seemed to be up for grabs. They were the most valuable swim voters. And just as they were zeroing in on this massive, swable slice of America, this woman running for city council in Denver Susan Casey gave a speech. And she said, I am a soccer mom running for elections.

I thought, oh yeah. That's it. That's who these women are. The soccer mom soccer mom NBC News and Dept and I the political professionals this year have called them soccer moms. They may be the most influential voters in the country right now. Kelly and tell me what is a soccer mom? The so-called soccer moms are these predominantly white women who live in the suburbs. They are the most hunkly pursued voters in this election.

And the soccer mom became this political force to be reckoned with. You didn't know Andy! They may sit on the sidelines at soccer games, but these women are front and center in this year's presidential campaign. A force that Ann and Selena started to harness. Recruit them and talk to them, get 10 soccer moms in a row. Finding out what they wanted and then promising to give it to them. Television ads from El Clinton Initiatives on Family Lead,

parental control over television programming. The Clinton campaign started rolling out policies about tobacco advertising. We fought to protect our children from the harmful effects of tobacco advertising aimed at them. You as President Bill Clinton has unveiled a program designed to keep guns out of the hands of young people. Gun control.

If it means that teenagers will stop killing each other over designer jackets, then our public schools should be able to require the students to wear school uniforms. School uniforms? Sometimes just little things that these soccer moms cared about. And it appears to be working. Polls show most of these women leaning towards Clinton. Among them, Bill Clinton has a stunning 28-point lead over Bob Dole. And on November 5th, 1996. Clinton won.

In part, because he locked down the soccer mom though. He won the soccer mom and it was key to his victory actually. Men split their vote for Dole and Clinton. Women on the other hand, 55% of women voted for, and only 38% of women voted for Bob Dole. So women elected Bill Clinton. And what posters and strategists would realize over the years is that targeting their campaign messages to ever finer and more specific groups, it works. And over the years, who this target was has mutated.

It became the security moms after 9-11, the NASCAR dads, Joe Sixpack, the Walmart moms, and these voting blocks just kept getting smaller and smaller. Campaigns now have access to so much more information. People are more interested in sort of slicing and dicing and making distinctions. Like, for example, as I was doing this soccer mom reporting, I came across this map in Politico.

In 2016, they went looking for the new iteration of the soccer mom. And you could move your cursor across different swing states. And it would highlight these very specific, huge-seen-named groups of voters. So like, in Colorado, you had the newly mortgages who were people who just bought a house. There were white women of Vegas, lunchpale Catholics, skittish soldiers, battleship makers, Cuban millennials.

And I just really loved how incredibly specific this map was. BEEP G-L-E-V Hi, G, This is Becca Brestler calling from Radio Lab. And so I first just called up a bunch of political strategists and pollsters to get a sense of what would this map look like today? You know, what are the surprising hidden slices out there in today's election? So the one that I've been using personally is Trader Joe Republicans. I heard about sunset boomers in Florida.

I mean, you know, in rural New Mexico, there's a lot of Hispanic cowboys. Utterly unsure, dairy farmers in Wisconsin. So I'm looking at three or four interesting groups of voters that I think are very nuanced, very targeted, but at the same time, it's what's very powerful. Let's start with what I call island-greekin. Okay, bags, I see the charm in these names and how the more particular and specific you get with these slices, the more seductive it becomes.

But at the same time, are these just strategists throwing names on the chaos to give themselves an illusion of control? So yeah, I wondered that too. And at the same time, I thought we're constantly being told the country is solidly divided into two camps. But we also know this place is increasingly diverse. And there's just got to be so much more complexity out there.

So I just grabbed a few other producers to go peek into some of these slices to see, you know, are these groups real? And are there people in them who could swing this election one way or another? First up is producer Tobin Lowe. Tobin, what is the name of your slice? I got Trader Joe's Republicans.

Trader Joe's Republicans. Okay, okay, so what are they? There are Republicans that are sold in the snack aisle of Trader Joe's, I'm just kidding. No, these are Republican voters, specifically in Texas. And according to the political strategists who told us about them, they have some preferences that at least I might stereotype as qualities of liberals.

So like they shop at Trader Joe's, they listen to NPR, they may have things in their home that's they live laugh love, which is so oddly specific. It is. And a thing that's tripping them up this year is that they are very conflicted about Donald Trump. It was described that they generally don't like him and they're very unsure of how to vote when it comes to the presidency, but they do plan on voting for other down-ballot Republican issues and to make sure Republicans don't lose Senate seats. Is this like a big group? Could they could they actually sway the vote away from Trump? Nobody is quite sure, but I will say I know I'm not the only one that holds I mean I'm certainly not the only one that holds these sort of unique set of views. It was not hard to find one.

My name is Tori Moreland. I'm actually a political consultant here in Austin, Texas. She calls herself a small L libertarian, but I certainly have a Republican voting record. Did she actually shop at Trader Joe's? I do. She loves the Shalong Bow. What is the Shalong Bow? Supped up things that they keep frozen.

That's one of my favorite snacks. Do you listen to NPR? I do, yes. Do you have anything in your house that says live laugh love? Oh my god, no. That's good. But she loves or loved the Colbert report. You have to be able to laugh at yourself. I I find I think as somebody who works in politics and and kind of sees how the sausage is made, you got to laugh at some of it sometimes. And the thing that really stood out to me is that her progressive trappings,

they don't really stop at the surface level. Climate change, do you believe in climate change? Yes, very much so. Do you find yourself in a pro-choice, pro-life? I am pro-choice, but I will admit that's probably not as common. It's interesting for me to hear you talk about these progressive ideas, just because they're things that I'm used to associating more with the Democratic Party.

What is it for you that keeps you from being a Democrat? I mean, if I had to put it into a single item, I would say it's this idea of who is the better provider of solutions and outcomes. I think the left tends to take this view that government is ultimately the best and most effective way of creating large-scale solutions. And I feel that's not the case, that actually whether it's the free market or just you know folks coming together can can voluntarily create solutions that are superior. You know she talks about this sort of conflicted mix of

experiences you know on the one hand liberal values of Austin are seeping in. Austin is such a unique place in the sense that progressive ideas, truly like, you know, Democrat socialist ideas are the main dream. But on the other hand, she feels her childhood guiding her, and she was raised in a very conservative community in Texas, and speaking of buckles and conservatism, she remembers growing up that her dad had this passionate resistance to seatbelt laws. That isn't the role of government.

And he really harphined on this idea of what the role of government is and its limits and why those limits existed and why they're important. How do you feel about Donald Trump? Trump. I mean, I think we'll look back on this moment in history and be saddened by what took place. I think though there's a real danger to the opposite side as well that wants to take us down a path that I don't think leads to the ends that I have in mind that are about maximizing choice. Do you know how she voted in the last election? She didn't vote for president.

She did show up to vote for other Republicans and to vote on certain issues she cared about, but she abstained from voting for president. Does she have thought, does she know what she's going to do in this one? Yeah, so I've seen a ton of buzz online, this idea of who could possibly be an undecided voter in mid-October of a presidential election considering who's at the top of the ticket. And on the one hand, I say, yeah, who would be undecided? But then I really, when I think about myself going to the ballot box and making that decision, I'm very much conflicted.

And so I find myself truly in mid-October in 2020, an undecided voter in terms of the top ticket item for president. I'm not sure if I want to go third party or sit it out entirely as I did in 2016. Producer Tobin Low. Next up, Sarkar. Hi. Hi, Lulu. Um, so what slice did you pick? What is the name of your slice? Okay, so the slice that I dove into is the Patel Motel Cartel. Patel Motel Cartel. Yes, exactly.

Have you heard that term before? Yes, I have. Yes, I read the whole article on that Patel Motel Cartel before. The name comes from this New York Times article about Indian American hotel owners. My name is Twinkle Patel and I own hotels. Is that like offensive? I don't really find that offensive personally. I don't find it offensive. Do you feel like you're a member of the Patel Motel Cartel?

Yeah, absolutely, why not? Yep, I am. Wait, so what exactly is the Patel Motel Cartel? Okay, so it turns out something like half of all motels in the United States are owned by Indian Americans. Whoa. Half of what?

Like tens of thousands of motels? Yeah. And then like 70% of those people all have the last name Patel, which is a common surname in the Indian state of Gujarat, which is where a lot of these people's families happen to originate from. Oh, okay. It was a very viable business to go into. They can live on site.

They can run the property. They can minimize expenses. They don't have to pay rent. Hotels require a lot of labor. Often with our Indian, South Asian families, we kind of have our built-in labor force, which is our family. And also the people who run these hotels and motels, they kind of stand out from the larger Indian-American voting block. Recent polling has shown that almost three-quarters of Indian Americans are voting democratic in

this election. Wow, I didn't realize it was that high. Yeah, but a lot of these hotel owners that I talked to. I'm in Minneapolis, two centers on a- Many of them- I'm Ohio. In swing states. Orlando, Florida.

Maggie, Valley, North Carolina. Well, I already put my voter and I went all red. They're swinging hard for Trump. I went for Trump. Definitely, I already put my voter and I went all red. They're swinging hard for Trump. I work for Trump. Definitely the Republican side. We've seen a huge savings when we get our taxes after some kind of elected. The center of my universe is my hotel, my livelihood and my work. This is only precedent. It came out from the hotel industry.

So he knows the fact that he signed a front of a paycheck and that's just the back of a paycheck. Not only find the back of a check, Not only find the back of a check, he's also find the front of a check. So there's this big group of Indian American hotel owners, peppered all over swing states, lots of whom appear to be supporting Trump. But the reason I found this slice so interesting, the reason it feels like a slice that could really swing an election is because it also contains guys like Mehl. Mehl Patel. Mehl lives in Minnesota. I've lived in Minneapolis for the last six years. And he owns a bunch of hotels with his family in Minnesota and Wisconsin. Minneapolis Rochester and

throughout Wisconsin. His parents bought their first motel when he was 11 years old. There's a small motel. There's also a nurse state that went between Milwaukee and Green Bay. It was called Parkway Motel. That's where he grew up. I was just going into high school. I remember like, you know, most people are like,

oh, what were you doing this weekend? And it was like, oh, helping clean room. He'd be helping full towels, repainting the beige walls. Knowing the summers, the remember having an outdoor pool that I would help my dad maintain back, giving the pool eventually as he got older, as we saved money, his family buys more motels, little bit bigger properties. And then once you finish his college, I kind of took over the business and grew it. Today it's this huge business. They own like 12 hotels.

So when we started talking about the election, a lot of us business owners are only looking at how it affects their business. This is our bread and butter. And you know, these businesses is my parents for a one key. I was sort of expecting him to echo some of the things I'd heard earlier about, you know, liking Trump's tax cuts or opposing Biden's proposal for a federal $15 minimum wage. You're strictly usually we've leaned Republican.

You mean you and your family? Correct, but this year is a little different with everything going on. The pandemic has just crushed his business. We were down 90% in the month of April and May compared to previous April and May. And now the more that I read how COVID-19 was dealt with, I mean, did our administration know months in advance that this was coming. He's filled with all of these questions. Why wasn't there a travel ban? Why weren't we taking the proper measurements

to try to de-escalate it? And so as a result, I think that year ago, I would say Trump would be my choice, but you know, just what happened. Now he's not so sure. And it's not just the pandemic. A lot of it is immigration. Trump's immigration policies are tougher than what Biden will have. The Trump administration has tightened restrictions on H1B visas, which historically

have been really important for Indian American immigrants. You're Biden. Who's with that immigration policy a little bit better, but Biden also hasn't said much about how he's gonna help small businesses. As our conversation went on, he kept swinging back and forth. Does Biden have some good things for the future? As far as health care and climate change and education, yes, but if we don't get out of this and I have to start over with our businesses, that's a big blow to us. But then again, Trump has a little bit more of that business

behind. Wow. So you kind of witnessed the slashing back and forth in real time. Totally. And from what he says, he's not alone. I'm a part. It sounds silly, but I'm part of what's that group? With like other hotel owners. Every day reading other people's views on it is kind of like, oh wow, I didn't look at it like that. Oh wow, I didn't read it like that. Are you gonna hold your nose and vote for one or the other? I have not made the decision.

I'm kind of still trying to see how it all went out. I mean, I know we're getting down to the water. Yeah. Every day's huge with what comes up and how they're speaking. I think it's gonna be a game time decision. I would love to find out what you decided in the end on the edge of my seat.

Yeah, it's not fun, but you know it's unpredictable, we don't know. Producer Sarkarri. Next up, Tracy Hunt. All right, so Tracy, which slice did you pick? Well, I guess I picked an absence. You know, you looked at that list that back up it together and you noticed that they're not really talking about black people.

And that's because when it comes to the black vote, posters don't really give us cute nicknames. They just sort of lump us all together. And I mean, I get it. Every four years, we see roughly 90% of black Americans voting for the Democratic candidate. This is Christina Greer. I'm an associate professor of political science at Fordham University.

And while the history of the black vote in this country is super complicated, she says the main reason for this is pretty simple. If you look at the policies that the Republican Party, they have been in the more recent history says the main reason for this is pretty simple. If you look at the policies that the Republican party, they have been in the more recent history, a more white nationalist-stick ideology, which a lot of black people reject, obviously,

because it's anti-black. But the problem with treating the black vote, as a black, she says, is it's just not. There are hardcore leftist progressives, there are folks in the middle, and then there their serious conservatives. Black folks are just sort of seen as this lump, but there's a lot of action going on there. As she told me about one politician who ran a campaign, then it'll weigh...

Good morning everybody, thank you for being here. Prove that point. I am proud to be here to endorse Donald Trump for President of the United States. Chris Christie. So before he joined Team Trump, Christie was governor of New Jersey. And in his second race for that job in 2013, something kind of crazy happened. He got nearly a quarter of the black vote, 21%.

Wow. Were you surprised by the 21%? Yeah, we felt quite good about it. I think we more than doubled our number or our percentage among African Americans. Why don't you go ahead and just like introduce yourself. Sure. Mike DuHame, I've worked for campaigns big and small, worked for President George W. Bush,

I've worked for Senator John McCain, Rudy Giuliani, and Governor Christie's races. So what happened? I mean, how did the Christie campaign do it? Well, he did a ton of events in majority black towns and cities. He, I remember him doing a town hall meeting in Irvington, New Jersey, which is right outside of a borders on Newark. And he did that all over the place. He got endorsements from black politicians. There's one short visual of him hugging the African American Democratic mayor. Also got endorsement from a prominent black Democratic minister. This is Reginald Jackson. A.M.E.

So why did you support Chris Christie? I was very strong education issue. And he was very supportive of giving parents a choice and making sure that that chose me got a good education. I don't endorse many politicians. But Chris Christie is different. We also did a commercial with Shaquille O'Neal. He's a good man.

Excuse me. He's a great man. Please join me in support. And you know, there was this one other thing too, which meant a lot to me personally as a black woman. When Winnie Houston died the year before, Chris Christie ordered all the flags in the state lower to half-mast. And even when there was a backlash,

he didn't back down. Huh. So you add that all up, and twice as many Black people as usual came out to vote for the Republican. So you might be wondering, who were they? Well, we can't really know for sure who they all were, obviously, but for the sake of doing the thing that none of these political consultants

ever seemed to do for black people, let's try to visualize the black voters Christy was trying to win over. All right. So of course you've got your black Republicans, and according to sociologist Corey Fields. There's a fair amount of variation among black Republicans. Some of them don't think about race when it comes to politics, but some do. Race conscious black Republicans for them, you know, race is central to how they understand

their lives. So, like, something like school vouchers, right? Like, uh, race conscious black Republican would say, I support school vouchers because they empower black parents to make decisions about their child's education. And who knows what's best for black children. Their parents or, you know, some white administrator on the school board. Some black Republicans support Trump. I'm glad that President Trump is more reserved as far as trying to do interventionalism.

I also appreciate his push to make us energy independent. And some while I'm a Republican, do not. I'm basically and independent until Trump leaves office. So that's the black Republicans. Okay, but they are also some more swingable slices. When I was in New Jersey, I would tell everybody that I was a Democrat with an open mind. This of course is Bishop Reginald Jackson and Christie wasn't the first Republican he

endorsed. He even voted for Nixon. I think I think blacks need to vote in their best interests. But when Christie ran for president, they've been chanting in the streets for the murder police officers. Well, individuals have, but the black lives matter. Well, listen, that's what the movement is creating. I thought was actually untrue and irresponsible.

He didn't support him. Okay, so we've got a couple kinds of black Republicans. We've got the Democrat with an open mind. Mm-hmm. Any others? Yes. I think the inconsistent voters are maybe like, you know, that cousin.

Ha-ha-ha-ha-ha. Ha-ha-ha-ha-ha. It's like, I'm abstaining because it's the lesser to evil. And it's like, I would call him that cousin. That cousin. I actually don't vote at evil. And it's like, I would call them that cousin. That cousin. I actually don't vote at all. And why is that? I don't sell out the politics of us.

Uh-huh. As far as like, um, Republican Democrat, I don't sell out the politics of either parties for us. Uh, who else? Who else? Like, the Southern Grannies. Older Black women. Yeah. Very involved in their communities.

Churchgoing, staunch Democrats Democrats. Of all his voting Democrat, you know, and vote consistently, have never missed an election. My name is Minnie Smith. I'm 90 years old and I'm in Houston, Texas. I vote every damn is time to vote. You know those elections where people win with like 2000 votes, like those are the Southern Grannies. Producer Tracy Hunt. Radio Lab will be back in a moment. Hi, this is Emily and I'm calling from Toronto, Canada. Radio Lab is supported in part by the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation, enhancing public understanding of science and technology in the modern world.

More information about Sloan at www.Sloan.org. Thanks. Science reporting on Radio Lab is supported in part by Science Sandbox, a Simon's Foundation initiative dedicated to engaging everyone with the process of science. Radio Lab, talking about voting blocks, I can't buy it in slices. Slices? Yes, they're now slices. Like you took a couple of your own to chase down, right?

Yes, I did. Okay, so who did you look into? Wait, hold on a second. Is that a fire? No, I've never heard that noise before. Oh, yeah, you should go find that. It sounds like a smoke detector. Yeah, hold on.

God damn it. OK, it's like. It's so high. What a broom. Be able to. Yeah. Oh, f***. Yeah.

Oh, f***. Oh, I literally broke it. Oh, sh**. Oh, I literally broke it. Oh my God. Oh, um. Really? Yeah. Um, well, this is actually a perfect little segue into our next one. Uh, or I guess you could say, um, things don't go as you planned.

All right. So where are we going for this one? OK, so we are going to, what do you think we think of as the heartland of America, the heartland of manufacturing, and specifically to, the headquarters, take me home. The headquarters of Goodyear Tires. Okay. And why exactly are we here? Well, well, so I had reached out to a political consultant in Ohio who said that I should go look at Republicans up and around the Akron area who work for Goodyear Tires.

And so I went looking for what we're calling a don't tread on me Republican. The pun there is on tread like tire treads. Yeah, tire tread. Don't tread on me. Tread tire. Got it. Who are potentially up for grabs and might swing against Trump because of a tweet? Hello. Hi Bob. Yes. Hi. How are you? Good. How are you?

So I first called up this guy Bob. Shrop. I work for Good Year. I'm 48 years old. Married with two kids. So Good Year has about 64,000 employees. And Bob started out looking on these massive machines. Making rubber for all these different car parts, tires, suspension.

And how long have you worked at Good Year for? So I've been at Good Year for 27 years. I get hired in July of 1993. And are you the first senior family to be a Good Year employee or does it stretch back? No, ma'am. So my grandfather worked there. My dad worked there. They're both retired. I worked there now along with my brother. My grandmother actually worked there as well as my great-grandmother. Oh my god It's a it's a long history It's treated my family very well. Okay, so the tweet so August 19th 2020 so just a couple of months ago Trump tweets don't buy I mean

Like should I pretend to be Trump? He I don't know, his emphasis is important maybe, so let me try again. Oh, please buy. Don't use Trump's eyes. Yeah. Okay. No, how would I even do this? Don't, no, I'm not gonna do it.

Okay, don't buy good year tires. They announced a ban on mega hats. Get better tires for far less. This is what the radical left Democrats do to can play the same game and we have to start playing it now. Wow. I thought it and was furious, just furious over it. Because for Bob, he's like, first of all, look, good year has a policy and they've always had a policy. That political clothing, headwear, gear, buttons, anything of the like has always been,

not appropriate at Goodyear. So the idea that Goodyear was just like singling out maga hats. It was just simply not true. But Bob said to really understand why someone like him was so furious about this tweet, you have to understand Akron, Ohio. Yeah, so back in those days.

So back around the turn of the century, Akron got the nickname, the rubber capital of the world. All of the big rubber manufacturers were headquartered here. So not only did you have good year, Firestone, BF, Goodrich, General Tire, Mohawk rubber. And in Akron you have these neighborhoods like Good Year Heights, Firestone had Firestone parks. Schools, you know, we have Firestone High School, we have Fiberiberling grade school, which is, you know, those are all rubber names.

If you went downtown, there was a factory or a shop. From one of those rubber companies just about on every corner. This area just sort of has the the tire industry in its DNA. But then jump ahead to the mid 90s. There is no turning back from the world of today and tomorrow. President Clinton signs NAFTA. The North American Free Trade Agreement. Which, as we know now, sent a lot of manufacturing jobs to Mexico and out of the country.

In overtime. Bob said in Akron, you know, the shops close up. Thousands of people lost their jobs. It's nothing like it used to be. So then, Thank you, everybody. 2016, Donald Trump. It's great to be in So then, 2016 Donald Trump.

It's great to be in Ohio. I love this state. Who campaigned in Akron campaigned to make America great again. And bring back your jobs. Bring back all these American jobs. That have been taken from your state and every other state in the union. Jump ahead. We have a major projection. Trump takes Ohio. Donald Trump will take Ohio. other state in the union jump ahead trump takes a high up will take

ohio in large part because he picked up these republican votes because he said he was going to get out of an aftah he was going to protect american jobs and then four years later he writes this tweet for sitting president sitting president of the united states to call for a boycott of one of the oldest tire manufacturers in America.

It's shameful. It's shameful. Oh, so is the idea here that Bob is Republican, but now he just can't with Trump because of the Twitter. Um, well, so I mean, I guess I should just come out and say it. Like Bob is actually not a don't tread on me Republican. Bob is, um, Bob is a don't tread on me Democrat. I won't predict the win for Joe Biden in Ohio.

I hope he wins Ohio because if he wins Ohio, it's over for Trump. Oh, okay. So Bob explains to me, he's kind of in a lifelong Democrat. It's generally Democrats that are more worker friendly and Bob is like a union guy Grandfather was in the union my dad was in the union Bob is in the union and therefore Typically votes Democrat huh and his Bob like an outlier no I would say that there's more Biden supporters in the shop than there are Trump supporters because Bob said a lot of his co-workers are in the shop, then there are Trump supporters. Because Bob said a lot of his co-workers are pro-union.

If you're a strong union supporter, I don't understand how you could support Donald Trump. So is this just a case of your political strategist made a misassumption? Yeah, I mean, sort of. There definitely are white blue collar workers in Ohio who voted for Trump, who might turn against him because they don't think he delivered on his promises. Like, that's definitely a thing. Okay.

But I do think the assumption here was just that these good-year employees that are also predominantly white, they work in manufacturing, that they all would have been Trump supporters, and that just doesn't entirely hold. Hmm. Well, Bob, I'm wondering, do you know anyone who was pro-Trump is now going Biden because of this tweet? Well, I do know that a friend of mine, who I believe is kind of a Trump-leaning type person, do believe it ditching at least his mind.

Hello, Scotty. Hello. Hi, how are you? Not too bad about yourself. So the friend is Scott Oswald, also known as Scotty. Can you tell me a bit about how you and Bob know each other? How do you guys strike up a friendship? Well, I tattooed one of his sons probably about six years ago. Oh really? Yeah. So Scotty doesn't work at good year. He is a tattoo artist. I met pretty much as an entire family that night.

He has tattooed Bob's sons and and Bob and his wife too. We just kind of all struck up a friendship. Do you feel like you kind of became a part of their family? Would you go have dinner with them or hang out at the house or anything? Absolutely for sure. And so Scotty told me when he heard about Trump's tweet. I just don't I don't know. I just don't I didn't really get it. And to me I just took it personally because it affected so many people that I knew, you know. So soon after he texted Bob, kind of hit him up, you know, it was like, hey, what are your thoughts on this? I said, I felt like he acted like a 14 year old child. In my eyes, he looks like a boy. And then I finally was just kind of like well you know actually could use some new tires and he wanted to know if i could get him a discount on good your tires because he wanted to run right out and support good year i just want to support a local company and i want to support my friends business and he did he took his card of the shot

bob using his company discount got Scottie for new tires. And that was that. That's a really sweet gesture. Yeah, but I mean, and then we got into it. We started talking politics and I said, you know, Scottie, Bob says you're Trump leaning. That's how he described you. Is that how you would characterize yourself or at least like, you know, in 2016, is that how you would have characterized yourself um and he says no oh huh do you have any idea why Bob might have suspected you were

Trump leaning I do not know I mean he might have just taken a guess and guessed wrong but but Scotty actually isn't really, isn't a voter. He's never voted before in an election. And he really never been, yeah. He kept thinking like, ah, it's not important. It doesn't matter. Like my vote doesn't really count. But he says since 2016, I sort of feel like that we've sort of taken like a giant step

backwards as far as community and just being civil, you know. And he feels like Trump is dividing our country. I believe so, yeah. And I'm definitely hitting up the polls because I feel like it's more important this time than it's been in quite some time. And so I asked him who are you gonna vote for. I'd rather not say, but I think you know

who I'm not gonna vote for. He was a little hesitant and cagey, which is weird, it's like process of elimination here. Like obviously he's gonna vote for Biden. Yeah, but I mean. But we kept talking and eventually, Spade was like. I really, I was really into Andrew Yang. Huh, yeah.

But I was kind of disappointed that they didn't really give him a good platform to like express to like what he wanted to do. And so Scotty, what he's gonna do is when he votes for the first time in this election, he's going to write in probably Andrew Yang. All right, didn't see that one, COVID. Yeah, neither did I.

And you know, reporting on this, like, I've come to really appreciate just how hard it is to put people in some sort of group because you make all these assumptions that can just get upended. Yeah, right. And this next story is actually a pretty extreme version of that. BEEP. B that. BEEP!

Okay, so... Hi! The slice is the Caldian American community in Michigan. Metro Detroit is home to the largest concentration of Caldians outside of the Middle East, which is about 160,000. This is Crystal Cassab Javiro. She's a middle school teacher. What grade do you teach?

Hey. Oh my god, teenagers are not fun. Well, I bet to differ. I do love them. Crystal told me the Caldians are indigenous to Iraq, started immigrating to the US in the early 20th century to work the Ford plants, which is why so many of them live in Michigan.

And the community is overwhelmingly Catholic. We are heavily invested in the Gwomen Catholic Church. This is Francis, which is a pseudonym, Oxlain White later, and how old are you? What? 52. Like Crystal, he's lived in the Detroit area for most of his life.

I own a body shop that works on commercial vehicles like semi-trucks and trailers. And he says the Catholic religion is a major part of the Caldian identity. For one thing, it's a huge part of why so many of them live in the US in the first place. And Iraq, you know, 99% of the population is Muslim.

So at one time there was 2.5 million Caldians in Iraq. But ever since ISIS did a lot of damage to Caldian villages, there's only like a couple hundred thousand left. So being Catholic, when it comes to politics, he says abortion is a big issue. To us, you know, you respect life, and then you honor it, you know, you honor that person, but life always comes first.

And because of that, most of the Caldien's typically vote Republican, when the 2016 election came around, I just kept like going. Crystal says, yeah, I can forth in my head and I said, well, she didn't love Trump. But I said, you know, I'm just going to do the Catholic vote. And I voted for Trump. And so did most of the rest of the Caldian community. And it's worth noting actually that Trump only won Michigan by 10,000 votes, and especially because of this one area Macomb County, where there is a large Caldien-American population.

And how many again, are there? Did you say Caldien in Michigan or...? There are about 160,000 Caldien's. Oh, wow. Yeah. So, the Caldien's definitely helped get Donald Trump elected in 2016. But then something happened that complicated things. So it was June 11th, 2017.

It was Sunday. It was a very busy day for my family. Crystal spent the morning running from thing to thing, church, a soccer game. Then my daughter had a piano recital. A communion party. Then we went to the soccer banquet. It was boom, boom, boom. One thing after another from eight o'clock in the morning.

She gets home at around 7.45 pm. I said, let me put some pictures up from the communion party. And she goes to Facebook to upload some pictures. Once I got on Facebook, I saw all these videos of people down at the federal building, down town, screaming and crying. She sees a video of a man being detained with an IV on him. Ice officers had fanned out across the area detaining Caldians.

Oh, my heart's on. This is it. This is what we've been worried about. Whoa. So what happened? Well, it's kind of complicated, but ice picked up a whole bunch of Caldians because of a change the Trump administration made to their arrangement with Iraq when it comes to certain non-citizen Caldians in the United States. And how many people got detained? About 200. Wow.

So the question is, is that could these detentions of Caldeans, could this have soured enough people in this community to vote against him? And maybe Michigan could swing back to Biden? Because remember, there are only 10,000 votes that made the difference in 2016. OK, wow. So Crystal, for her part, she kind of sprung right into action.

She went down to the local high school, started connecting people with legal aid. I remember seeing a girl, I looked at her and I said, what are you doing here? She said, my mom, my mom was detained. I said, what? And this was a girl I had went to high school with. You know, she was just shaking and she was nervous. You know, she just didn't know what to do. You know, I guess you see these things and like they happen to other people.

They happen to other people. We hear the deportations and happen all the time, of course, to our Mexican brothers and sisters. And we like never seem to think it's gonna touch us. Did you feel responsible in any sort of way? I did. I know I beat myself up for it for a long time. And that's why I worked so hard since then to vote him the hell out, to elect a real leader, a man like Joe Biden.

Now, Francis, he didn't so much spring into action. I just took off. He fled. Because they knew where I lived. Because Francis, actually, is more or less hiding from ice right now. Oh, I am. Yes, I am. I'm like any car that pulls up.

I'm watching my cameras more than my TV. I get paranoid of a car pulls up. I don't know if it's them. I don't know car that pulls up. I'm watching my cameras more than my TV. I get paranoid if a car pulls up. I don't know if it's them. I don't know if they found out. I don't know. Like I just don't take any chance. I don't leave home for two or three days. Does the fear impact you in other ways? I mean, do you like do you have trouble sleeping? Oh my gosh. I was so bad that I had nightmares every night that people were grabbing me agents I was up but I couldn't stop them like I felt like I was up but I was paralyzed and that was every single night and the worst part is like I'll hear them

breaking down the door coming they like I can feel hands grabbing my arm trying to get me and I can't move and it's long just a nightmare. If Biden were to get elected, do you think that you would stop hiding? I think that there wouldn't be at this initiative to try to remove us. So I would not be in fear. No, I don't think I would be.

And who do you support for president? Trump. Can you help me understand that? I will. I will. I will. I will help you. This is the humility. I don't care about myself. I care more about conservative values and for this country, more than myself. So if I have to suffer because of my beliefs, I will. I will. Is the idea then that you believe in prioritizing unborn life over, you know, living

Caldien Americans in your community? Yes, yes. Yes, I do. What can happen to our lives? Like, we're not being killed. We may be being moved around or having to go suffer a little bit until we find a country that will accept us and live But that's doable. That's not death. That's not the same as abortion. That's not the same thing I mean it could be possible death, you know, and I rag it could be But I'm just not willing to do that like I'm not willing To sacrifice my beliefs This episode was produced by Becca Bressler, Tracy Hunt, Matt Kilti, Tobin Lo, Sarah Kari, Pat Walters, with help from Johnny Moans. Also if you feel like you belong to a special voting block that has not been mentioned here

or in the media anywhere, think about it, come up with a name and send us the name of that block on Twitter, on Facebook. And maybe take this episode as a reminder that whatever happens in the next few days and weeks beneath the political parties are people. Special thanks to Darren Samuelson, who is now a business insider in the team at Politico, illustrator Josh Cochran, whose 2016 map inspired this episode. For an Indomandi, Tex Dozier, Susan Carroll, Lana Atkitson, Jay Levy, Harald O'Kadava, Matt Katz, Veriland Williams, Miss Pamela, Nadege Green, Dale Barron, Vin Arsano, and Aaron Wiki-Wiki-Wiki-Wikenden. Thanks for listening. Hi, this is Jake Allen, calling from Winona, Minnesota. Radio Lab was created by Chad Abumrod and is edited by Sorn Wheeler.

Moulin Miller and Lachif Nasser are our co-hosts. Dylan Keith is our director of sound design. Susan Lektonberg is our executive producer. Our staff includes Simon Adler, Jeremy Bloom, Becca Bressler, Rachel Qsick, David Gabel, Tracy Hunt, Matt Kielty, Tobin Moe, Annie McKeown, Sarkari, Ariane Wack, Pat Walters, and Molly Webster. With help from Shima Olii, Sarah Sandbach, and Johnny Means. Our fat checker is Michelle Harris. Thank you.

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