Radiolab - Stochasticity

Episode Date: January 5, 2024

First aired way back in 2009, this episode is all about a wonderfully slippery and smarty-pants word for randomness, Stochasticity, and how it may be at the very foundation of our lives. Along the way, we talk to a woman suddenly consumed by a frenzied gambling addiction, hear from two friends whose meeting seems to defy pure chance, and take a close look at some very noisy bacteria. EPISODE CITATIONS: Videos - Stochasticity Music Video (https://zpr.io/uZiH9j9ZU6be) Our newsletter comes out every Wednesday. It includes short essays, recommendations, and details about other ways to interact with the show. Sign up (https://radiolab.org/newsletter)! Radiolab is supported by listeners like you. Support Radiolab by becoming a member of The Lab (https://members.radiolab.org/) today. Follow our show on Instagram, Twitter and Facebook @radiolab, and share your thoughts with us by emailing [e-mail].   Leadership support for Radiolab’s science programming is provided by the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation, Science Sandbox, a Simons Foundation Initiative, and the John Templeton Foundation. Foundational support for Radiolab was provided by the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation.

Hey, it's Latif. Happy New Year, Liggy You. So fresh, it's a new you, and a new me, and a new page, and a new lease on life for all of us. And as we start to chart out our new year, I wanted to play an episode from the archives that asks an important question that I think is helpful to consider, you know, as we make plans and goals and set expectations. So here's the question. Here's the question. How much can we control what happens in our lives? And how much is it just whatever you want to call it, luck or fate or just the random and fickle universe having its way

with us. This is an episode about that. How that applies to E. coli bacteria. How it applies to dimes and quarters. How it applies to blades of grass on a golf course. And of course, how it applies to you. I hope you enjoy. This is stochasticity.

Yeah, you're listening. Okay. All right. Okay. All right. You're listening to Radio Lab. Radio from WNYC. Hey!

Yeah. Ree-y. Okay. I want to start the show today with a truly remarkable story. Hey! Hi! Hi! Hi! Hi! Hi! Hi! Hi! Hi!

Hi! Hi! Hi! Hi! Hi! Hi! Hi! Hi!

Hi! Hi! Hi! Hi! Hi! Hi! Hi! Hi! Hi! Hi! Hi! Hi! Hi! Hi! Hi! Hi! Hi! Hi! Hi! Hi! Hi! Hi! Hi! Hi! Hi! Hi! Hi! Hi! Hi! Hi! Hi! Hi! Hi! Hi! Hi! Hi! Hi! Hi! Hi! Hi! Hi! Hi! Hi! Hi! Hi! Hi! Hi! Hi! Hi! Hi! Hi! Hi! Hi! Hi! Hi! Hi! Hi! Hi! Hi! Hi! Hi! Hi! Hi! Hi! Hi! Hi! Hi! Hi! Hi! Hi! Hi! Hi! Hi! Hi! Hi! Hi! Hi! Hi! Hi! Hi! Hi! Hi! Hi! Hi! Hi! Hi! Hi! Hi! Hi! Hi! Hi! Hi! Hi! Hi! Like a movie. Yeah. Okay. Okay, it's June, 2001.

Yeah. Where are we? We're in a little town in Northern England called. Stoke on Trent. Stoke on Trent. Yep. Imagine a little English house in this town and the camera zooms in and there standing in the front.

Lawn is a little Laura Bucston. She's 10 years old. Yeah. Well, almost 10. Whatever. She's a tall girl. Pretty tall for my age. Picked tails. And 10. Whatever. She's a tall girl. Pretty tall for my age. Picked tails, and in her hand, she's holding a balloon.

A red balloon. You with me so far? Yeah. Okay, so earlier that day, Laura had taken a little card and stuck it to the balloon, and on one side written, plus a little message. I just said, um, please return to Laura Boxing, and then on the other side, it had my address. Okay, so cut back to the outdoor scene there she is standing on the lawn. It's very windy.

She's got this red balloon with her name on it and she holds it up to the sky. To the heavens. And I just let it go. If you're in the wind too, Keith. We were laughing and joking because we just thought it'd get stuck in a tree but further down the road somewhere. But that's not what happened. The balloon kept going. All right, now I'm looking at a map here of England and stuck on trannets at the top of the balloon. Would it have to go south like pound down down past Stratford?

Yeah, past Walsale. Past Wolverhampton. Then past Birmingham. Past Kitter-Minster. Past Warchister. Yeah. Past millions of people. Past shitting him. sale, passed Wolverhampton, then passed Birmingham, passed Kitter-Minster, passed Warchester, passed millions of people, passed shitting him, people with different lives, different names, passed Gloufchester, Gloufster. Gloufster, and all in all, the red balloon goes about 140 miles south. Exactly against the prevailing wind. Oh really?

Which is the southwestern. Okay, so finally, when this balloon is all the way on the other side of the country, it begins to descend. Down, down, down, and of all the places it could have landed, you know, in a river, in a factory parking lot, in the sea. Instead, the balloon touches down in the yard of this girl. I live, I live in the countryside in a little village called Milton Lilborn. Just so you're not confused, this is a different girl than the first one.

They do sound the same, but they live on opposite ends of the country. The balloon got stuck in our hedge, but our next one, neighbor, found it. And he thought it was just a bit of rubbish and he collected it up, so the cows wouldn't eat it because he didn't want the cows to choke on the rubbish. And he was about to put it in the bin, like literally. And then he saw the label saying, please send back to Laura Bucston. And he was like, oh my God.

Why? What did he say, oh my God? Okay, so check this out. Remember how I told you how the first girl who sent the balloon was 10? The second girl who received it? 10 years old. She's 10, okay?

Okay. Wait, wait, wait, wait, this is more, this is more. Remember how I told you the first girl's name was Laura Bucston? Yeah. Well, girl number two, can you introduce yourself? Okay, um, hi, I'm Laura Bucston. What? They're both Laura Bucston? Yeah, no. Yes! Both named Laura Bucston. Yes, you heard me right. A ten-year-old girl named Laura Bucston, let's go over Balloon. Fyuuu! That balloon float to 140 miles and landskoom. In the art of a ten-year-old girl named Laura Bucston.

Is this for real? Yeah. I think it might be the strangest thing I've ever heard in my life. It's pretty weird. Been about eight years since the balloon incident. Laura's see each other a lot, and we managed to get them both into a studio. Hello, New York, Mrs. London. Can you hear me? So like, we're gonna hear you Americans through these.

Yeah. Okay, back to the story. Yeah, I got the balloon. That's Lauren number two. And I? What did you think at that point? Um, well, I was quite young, so I didn't really know what to think. I was just like, I'd better write the letter because you know, there's someone else out like Laura Voxen, I must see them.

So Lauren number two wrote a letter to Laura number one? Dear Laura, I think I put 10 years old in I live in which I found Yobaloon and thing is that my name is Laura Baxter as well, so lots of love from Laura Baxter. Laura number one. Yeah. You get the note. Got it through the post. You remember reading it? I remember reading it so I sort of opened it up while I was in the kitchen. And it was really quite confusing actually because it was like two Laura Vox and From Laura Vox didn't. I took it up to my mom and we stood there arguing about it for quite a while. What did you argue about?

Well she was trying to tell me that it had come two Laura Vox didn't. And it wasn't From Laura Vox didn't. She just thought I was confused. Okay, fast forward a short while later the two Laura Boxton. She just thought I was confused. Okay, fast forward a short while later, the two Laura's meet. It was at one of England's most popular TV shows, Richard and Judy. They'd found out about the Laura Laura coincidence and invited them on. And here the story gets even stranger, because there's Laura number two standing backstage. And down the corridor I saw this guy who looked pretty similar to me.

First thing she noticed is, wow, we're the same height. Gany and Thorland. Got the same color hair. I've got a hair. We're even wearing the the same height. Gany and Tawlan. Got the same color hair. I'm a share and... We're even wearing the exact same clothes. Pink jumpers and jeans. Yeah. She both had on pink jumpers and jeans.

And as they started to talk, they just kept getting weirder. Well, we both got a three-year-old black labrador. We both got a grey rabbit. We both got guinea pigs. Yeah, yeah. And they both brought their guinea pigs with them that day. I remember Laura took hers out of its cage and I had mine on my lap and we were like,

oh my god, they were identical. Oh. They were both brown with a sort of beji orange patch on their bum, like completely the same. I was just like, oh my gosh, how is this happening? Do you believe in miracles? Either of you? I don't know, would you call this miracle?

I'm not sure. I mean, I guess it could be, but I think it's more of a case of fate. Yeah, I'd say it's more fate than a miracle. So you don't think that win that blew the balloon was just wind? Well, if it was just wind, it was a very, very lucky wind. The chances just so unlikely, there must be some kind of reason. What kind of reason? Maybe we were meant to meet, I don't know. But meant by whom? Or what? No, it was really. Every time we'll tell it could actually be like preparing us for

something else later in life. For the most,? When we're old grannies. We'll find out. I don't know what it is, young and my distant friend. Bye. Oh, sad. I mean, what do you look for? You don't know what you are. What? You're a destiny bully.

Do you know what it goes? What are you calling me a destiny bully? Yes, because you're a pop band or something. No. It's what you are doing to those girls. No, I wasn't trying to force God on them if that's what you mean. Yes, you're the one who says, oh, I was trying to get to the question of how should we think about that story? Is our world full of magic and meaning and coolness or is it all just chance?

In fact, that's what we're going to do with this whole hour and radio live. We're going to discuss the role that chance plays in so many things. In the lottery, in the flipping of coins, and deepest of all. You, us. Yes. On radio lab. I'm Chad Abel-Morad. I'm Robert Crowleywich.

We're about to get random, so stay with us. So let's start with a very basic question. Let's. Random sounds like it means random. So let's start with a very basic question. Let's. Random sounds like it means random. That is, anything can happen at the next turn of the wheel. Like your phone ringing, for example. Random.

Sorry. Although it happens so many times, I just no longer random. It's completely predictable. But it does have a very nice kind of lilt to it, don't you think? I'm going to sing with it now. And now back to our regularly scheduled program. So let's say that something remarkable happens. Like the Loris. Like the Loris. Can you tell whether this is just the random act of an indifferent universe,

or is there something truly miraculous and wonderful about it? Excellent question. Thank you very much. Hello. We found you. So this is Chad. Hey, Mrs. Robert.

I'm Devin Nolan. I'm a professor of statistics at the University of California Berkeley. The reason we'd come to see Debra Nolan at Berkeley is because we'd heard that she plays this game. I like to incorporate lots of classroom activities and demos. One in particular has to do with randomness. To game that helps your students understand what real randomness actually looks like. And it doesn't look like what you would think. In any case, she takes

us into her classroom. Us and a few students. And she sits us down. We also down. And she explains. Okay, I'm going to divide the group up into two. I'm going to divide it right here. She splits us up so that group one is three of her students. I'm Joe Chang, Richard Leeing, Margaret Taub, and group two, Chad Ebbomrod, and Robert Colwich. Is us. And the group here, she's pointing it out. I'm gonna give you a penny and I'm gonna ask you to flip the coin a hundred times. And the three of you, she points to her students, your job is to pretend to flip a coin. Meaning they just have to flip the coin in their heads. Kind of guess. How do you think that coin might land?

Produce a hundred fake coin flips. And then Deb beeps the broom. So our students start whipping through their imaginary fake flips. Tails. Tails. Tails. Tails. Tell me Tails. Tails. Tails.

Tails. Tails. Tails. Tails. Tails. Tails. Tails. Tails.

Tails. Tails. Tails. Tails. Tails. Tails. Tails. Tails.

Tails. Tails. Tails. Tails. Tails. Tails. Tails. That's disgusting. Eventually, we did finish and both groups then put our strings of ancient keys right there on the backboard. Tails. Woo! And then Deb came back.

Hello. Here they are, huh? Let's look. Okay, so on the board, you've got two sets of H's and T's which look pretty much the same to us. But she looked at the air list, the fakers, and then she looked at Arles, and right away she says pointing at Arles. This is the real one.

We were like, wow! What, how did she do that? Well, amazing, the way she knew knew had to do with one particular moment. Right, roll the tape back. I think to a moment right at the beginning of our coin. That's it. That's it. Shit, tails.

Yep. Tails. Tails, three and a row. Where's that thing? Another tail. Huh? Shirt, be like, we have way too many tails. Ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha Seven tails in a row. It was really spooky. Completely. Like at any moment, a unicorn was going to come galloping in.

That's how weird it was. But as magical and unrandom as it felt to us, that's how she knew that we were the real flippers. As soon as I saw the seven tails and then I looked over to the other board and there weren't any, a longer than four, I think. That's how she knew. When we asked one of the guys on the other board and there weren't any a longer than four, I think. That's how she knew. And when we asked one of the guys on the other team,

why didn't you put more streaks in your flips? Well, you said, what do I think we'd all say? I was thinking if we did that too much, maybe she would recognize that we were actually doing that on purpose. In other words, those streaks just feel wrong. And that's the thing about randomness. Real randomness when you see it, just doesn't

feel random enough. But, it says that the truth is. Strange things do happen by chance. Changes, chokes, chokes. But why is it so hard for us to emotionally accept this? Well, it finally made sense to us when we spoke to this guy. Hi, Jay. Hi, Robert. That's Jay Kohler. I'm a professor of finance and professor of law at Arizona State University. So here's how the epiphany happened. We were explaining to Jay the unicorn experience at Depp's classroom.

We got one tail, then we got a second, then we got a third, then we got a seventh. And somewhere in the conversation, we started to do the math. Seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven, seven just over one percent chance. Yeah. So it seemed to first that what had happened in Deb's class was super unlikely. Right. But then, Soren, a producer. Yeah, Soren. Had to go and say this. You know, to be fair, you should tell him that you actually flipped the coin a hundred times.

Oh, ho, ho, now you. Wait, wait, did you, you were holding back on me? Wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, that's why we have Soren here. Are you saying that somewhere in the hundred flips, you got a run of seven wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait,

wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait're doing multiple sets of seven, 14 of those sets of seven, which we work, we were doing 100, then the probability start to add up. It means start small, like 1%, but then that one becomes 2, which becomes 4, which becomes 8 until when it's all said and done.

The chances of getting 7 tails in a row somewhere in a set of 100 is, don't hold your breath. About 1 in 6, 1 in 6. is Don't hold your breath about one in six champs one in six That's it that you would have gotten a string of seven So what felt spooky and almost twilight zone-ish in the moment is actually not that improbable Oh, see that's what you don't want to know it doesn't confirm your goosebumps. No, I think the goosebumps are dead now Oh, I'm sorry to do that. I still enjoy life. The problem says, Jay, is that we were so focused on those seven flips in a row, that we had forgotten about the other 93, that weren't seven in a row.

We'd forgotten about what he calls the background. We were too zoomed in, so you've got to back the camera up and pan around and look at the complete sample space. And when you do that, he says what you will realize is the thing that felt so special. Suddenly you see that it's not so odd in its real context. And this sad lesson goes way beyond coins. You gave us this example. 1985 and 1986.

Evelyn Adams of New Jersey wins the lottery twice. Back to back years Crazily improbable right right so if you zoom in all the way in there she is Evelyn Adams standing outside of a convenience store somewhere in New Jersey She is completely blown away for good reason the odds that those two particular tickets would become winning lottery tickets are one in 17.3 trillion. But Jay would say if you'd hand the camera back, way from Evelyn, and you look at the

whole world of people buying lottery tickets at this vantage point, you can begin to ask a different question. What are the odds that somebody somewhere... Somebody... ...somewhere... ...when the lottery twice. And in fact, the answer to that is, it would be very surprising if it didn't happen repeatedly. And it has happened repeatedly. Really? For instance. And Connecticut.

Employees of a place called the Shuttle Metal Country Club, they won twice. A man in Pennsylvania, he won twice a few years later. And California retiree on a fantasy five and the superlato in the same day. Yads of that were counted at one in 23.5 trillion. That's trillion with a T. One way I think to think about this whole thing, I think one example that sort of brings it all home, at least it did for me when I thought about the blade and the grass paradox. A golfer hits the ball down the fairway and the ball lands on a particular blade of grass. If the blade of grass could talk, you know, the blade of grass would say, wow. Oh my god!

What are the odds that that ball out of all the billions of blades of grass. Every way to the right, and me, it lands on me. How did it come to be that just landed on me? I don't know. It's sort of like a miracle, really. And it is sort of miraculous. But what we know is that it was going to land on some blade of grass somewhere.

So it's nearly 100% chance that some blade of grass was going to say, wow, what are the odds that that ball was going to land on me? And if I were that blade of grass, I'd feel so special and chosen and crushed and crushed Soar the real lesson here according to Jay Kohler and also Deb Nolan before him is that if you don't see past yourself You fall prey to You know superstition right or magical thinking you have to be careful that you're not finding meaning here when when it's just coincidence just coincidence just coincidence But there are some things like the Laura's

That will never feel like just coincidence Well if it was just wind it was a very very lucky wind So we had to ask Jay. I asked you sir. Is this a miracle? This is not a miracle. It's a good story. But, you know, there's lots of little things I could pick at in the story. Like what? Exactly. What was it? I picked it.

Well, I mean, you know, Laura Bucksin didn't find the balloon. Somebody else who knew a Laura Bucksin found the balloon. You selected out the features that match. And trust me, somebody checked to see if she was an identical twin. It's like, no, no, that's not a good one. Skip the twin. Okay, how many brothers and sisters? Oh, not the same number, skip that. Ah, they both have a rabbit. Let's put that one in the story.

To be totally honest, he's right. What? What do you mean? Well, when I was interviewing the Laura's, I asked them a bunch of questions, kind of scouting for similarities. What's your favorite color, both of you? Blue, pink. Scrap that.

And what do you guys study in school? Biology, chemistry, and geography. Whereas I'm doing English and history and classical civilization. Scrap that. What people do is they try to make the story better by showing more similarities. So you're saying that somebody, I couldn't imagine who, doctored the story. By the way, I don't want to spoil anything. And this is a trivial comment, but I believe that one of the girls was actually nine. Well, almost ten.

The other one was ten. Oh, I'm sorry. The other one was 10. Oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh think K would agree with you. Well, first of all, we love stories. It connects us. It gives us insight into our own lives. And I think it also gives us a feeling that life is magical. And maybe we don't have to call it magic to enjoy the experience. In fact, I was talking to the Laura's and I asked them, what if a statistician were to walk in the room right now

and say to you, this was bound to happen. Statistically, this was gonna happen sometime to someone. That's fair enough, really, because it just happens to be us in those statistics. Yeah, I mean, if that's what statistician thinks, I mean, yeah, I came to him. They don't really care. The way they see it, whatever was in that win,

whether it was fate or just wind, it doesn't matter. We brought them together. And now, they're friends. that book continued in a moment. Hey, it's a lot to begin. Just a quick note before we get back to the episode. The story you're about to hear was reported back in 2009 by journalist Jonah Lehrer, who years after that got in trouble

for fabricating quotes in one of his books. We have fact checked this story, everything in it held up, just so you know that we know, and now you know you know okay back to Jaden Robert. Hey I'm Jaden Abumrod. Hey I'm Robert Krollwich and we are talking on Radio Lab about things stochastic like coin flips and lottery tickets. But let's just push this whole argument on another step forward if we may. Which mean? Let's talk about human beings pattern rules the brain this one is about a woman. I believe her name is Ann

main conserver I live in a small country town where most people know that the people and Was a high school English teacher at half a 31 years. She now lives in West Virginia. Wait, can you wait this minute? There's someone at my door. I'm sorry. There's none. Of course. Of course. And was an upstanding citizen went to church every Sunday. Was just one of those people who makes the world go around. Makes the world go around. I'm sorry. Not at all. Anyway, in 1991,

I would get to the grocery store and on the occasions I would check for my groceries that was like, gosh, you're shaky. And she says she began to notice that her hands would suck the tremble. Were you all right? But I just thought that it was because of working hard and trying to get everything done. And it got particularly bad when she said she was just walking in the mall doing some shopping. And I was by myself walking and it was like I stepped off a step that wasn't there. It was the first full body tremor.

She fell. And then my husband was a doctor and he sent me to an urologist who diagnosed me with Parkinson's. How old is she by the way? She was at that point in her early 50s. What is Parkinson's? Parkinson's is the death of dopamine neurons in the back of your brain, in the part of your brain that controls bodily movement. And so when these neurons die, the end result is, first, the shaking hand and the loss of feeling and the loss of movement, and then, of course, the tremors get worse and worse. But anyway.

Well, the doctor diagnosed with Parkinson's, and he gives her a drug called a requer. Requer place, new medicine in 1992. It's a pseudo dopamine. It basically mimics dopamine in the synapse of the cells. And there was like a miracle drug for me. The end of the video Her tremors disappear, her symptoms disappear.

So she's cured her? If you looked at her on RECWIP, years after she had Parkinson's you wouldn't notice anything she would seem symptom-free So about seven or eight years go by all the while they're upping the doses to compensate for the cell loss It's still taking place and in the early years of 2000 something sort of unusual happened to Anne Some prince of man had gone to Las Vegas every year for them. Basketball tournament, the final four type thing, and they asked for it all to go with them and I said yes I would. So she went to watch basketball but as often often happens in Vegas, one afternoon she and

her friends found themselves in a casino. Had you ever gambled before this trip to Las Vegas? No, I was right in a household that was fairly religious and we considered gambling a scene. But as she stood there in the casino in Vegas, she had this inexplicable urge to go to the slot machines. They had frogs and princesses and cars and cherries and lemon and fishabet and wheels spanned and see what the pictures did. I've never taken any drags side or anything to compare it to, but it was like a high.

That was sort of the beginning of it. compared to it was like a high. That was sort of the beginning of it. And then when she comes back to West Virginia. I couldn't wait to get to the machine. I really want to buy. She discovers the dog racing track. So it gets wonderful. About 15 miles away from her house. I'd go to the 730 feet there when they open.

And that's where she would go. And they had a wider sort of slot machines. How are you? If I had the money, I'd play all day. From seven to three-thirty in the morning. Whoa. And then you would go home and play slots. On the computer.

On her computer. Not even for money. Just for the sheer visceral thrill. I would play that all the rest of the night. 730 the next morning I'll be back at the joint. Hi. Hi. Was that any sleep at all?

No sleep, and she could keep it up for several days in a row. It's beginning of my gambling. I'd wake up in the night and just scream out of God when I'm doing Help me save me, but eventually I became too Hard-hearted, I guess even pay attention to that Her credit cards are all maxed out as all my mother's silver. I sold myself a wire Thanks that should have been my son heirlooms silver wire. Thanks that should have been my son, heirlooms, stole from the safety deposit box. She steals quarters from her grandkids. Steals quarters from her grandkids. Yeah.

Anything I looked at around the house I thought I could get money out of. Everyone who knows her is watching her life all apart. My house was filthy dirty and mess. I would take time to even wash dishes. She lives on peanut butter. Didn't have any crackers or bread or anything like this. I'd peanut butter. Because that's all she can afford and still leave as much money as possible for the slots. Even when I'd be at church I'd think. It was so many more minutes or so many more hours I can get a gamble. Her husband eventually leaves her. I mean I loved my husband but. I got divorced. There husband eventually leaves her. I mean, I loved my husband, but... They got divorced.

There's just no decision. Everything is gambling. One of the neat things about gambling is that you can do it by yourself. How much money did you lose during those years if you don't mind me asking? That lost at least $300,000. $300,000.

Which to her is? It's all her life savings. And it's one quarter at a time. Yeah, that's the surreal part. That dried, simple things. I went to a rehab facility. My father, I told you I was racing really there just home. Sometimes I would say my dad's fortunately for me for the day. He I disappointed me. But seemingly I just couldn't stop.

Let me pause here for a second, Jad. I wanted to just take a moment and try to figure out what exactly is happening to ants. Yeah, why can't she stop? Yeah. It turns out there may be an explanation if you look into her brain. Remember earlier, we talked about a little chemical called dopamine?

Yeah. And how she didn't have enough dopamine in her brain so that was giving her some kind of movement trouble, the Parkinson's. Right. It also turns out to be the case. That anytime you do something that makes you feel good, you're brain spurts out dopamine. For years, that's how scientists saw dopamine as the neurotransmitterter of pleasure the neurotransmitter of sex drugs and rock and roll But you said earlier that dopamine has to do with movement

Well, what is the ultimate purpose of movement from the perspective of evolution? It's to get you to food. It's to get you to sex. It's to get you to a reward So that's why the same circuits the same chemical that controls motivation that that controls what you want, also controls movement. But that turned out- It was a little more complicated than that. In the mid 1970s, a guy named Wofram Schultz decided to take a much closer look, and his subject was... A monkey. So he would put these very thin needles that can record the activity of individual dopamine neurons in the monkey brain.

And they'd put the monkey in a room, and then every day they would walk down the hall to the room of the monkey was, they'd open the door. Hello, monkey. They'd flip on the light, they'd give the monkey some juice. Here you go, monkey. And then when the monkey sifted juice...

Dope of me. Happy monkey. Right. But then comes a surprise. He soon discovered something very odd about these neurons. Dope of Me. Happy monkey. Right. But then comes a surprise. He soon discovered something very odd about these neurons. As they juiced this monkey day. Hello, monkey.

After day. Hello, monkey. Hello, monkey. After day. Hello, monkey. The squirt of dopamine, which they were always measuring in the monkey's brain, seemed to move forward in time. What do you mean? Well, at first the dopamine hit when the monkey took the sip of juice. Hello, monkey.

But after a while the monkey got the dopamine hit when they entered the room and switched on the light. Hello, monkey. After a few more times the dopamine hit when the researchers beat Could be heard walking down the hall. You see what's happening here? Hello, Monkey. Um, not really. You have to bring it home for us. Well, I'll do it again then. What the Monkey is trying to do is piece together the sequence of events that inevitably lead to juice.

Exactly. That's what these cells do. They try to predict rewards. Oh, so this isn't just about movement or about feeling good. It's about finding the pattern of the thing that makes you feel good. Yeah, it's pattern-finding. Oh, this is pure pattern recognition. This is essentially how your brain makes sense of reality in some very primitive sense. It parses reality in terms of rewards. So this is how you get more food in the wild, is you can see the reward before anyone else can. So we're talking about like basic survival stuff here. There's one other wrinkle though,

methadopen system that makes casinos and slot machines so tantalizing, which is that these cells are also programmed to be very sensitive to surprising rewards. So this seems to be most scientist speculet that this seems to be your brain's way of telling you Pay attention you just got something for free. This must be good sit here in this nice comfy velvet chair and try to figure out this reward So now imagine and sitting there at the slot machine

She pushes the button on the machine machine and oh my god And sirens and bells go off, coins clang. And inside her head. Her dopamine neurons, they're saying, oh, this is wonderful! But now how did this happen? Where did this big reward come from?

What did you do this time? Why are you so happy all of a sudden? And start searching for something. They had frogs and princes. Was it the number of cherries that she had just before? Was it that this machine had 13 hits? And this was the 14th? I thought I could tell.

It has all kinds of pattern-like things. It has bells. It has lights. But the problem is, is that there is no pattern to find. There is no pattern. It's inherently random. It's inherently unpredictable. And while the rest of us might just, you know, give up and walk away. God, I just wasted

a hundred bucks on this stupid machine. I should go get lunch. And can't go to lunch. Her dopamine system is too powerful, too potent. Oh, because of that drug she's taking. Right. It keeps surging and surging, forcing her neurons to fight hard to find a pattern. That's what's gripping her. Her brain is intoxicated at the possibility that it will learn how to succeed, that it will crack an uncrackable code. I thought I was good at softening the machines in fact. She told me a story about she would go to buy milk and then spend the next 12 hours with the milk rotting next to her as she puts quarter after quarter after quarter into this

machine. Were you surprised when you learned that the medication might be responsible for your gambling addiction? I mean as someone said to me this medicine will cause compulsive gambling how I thought they were crazy. It's just at that time where the first studies come out showing that this is actually a common side effect of RECRIP. Really? So there were other ands appearing in other places, same deal? Absolutely. Basically, after a month, you're all assuming off the RECRIP.

Her compulsion disappeared instantaneously. Almost immediately. That fast. Well, I wasn't a weak outside. Wow. It was gone. I haven't gambled for nearly three years. Did her Parkinson's return? Yeah.

I have dreamers that worse. I've recently gotten the kind after a walk and I use a walker. So the price of not being a gambling addict is living with debilitating Parkinsonian symptoms. That my son, let me finish it, my son, when I told him after the quick game, when I said son, I was so thankful to you that you should have been said. Mom, that's just thanks. That's just really great day for you back. Radio lap will continue in a moment. Hello I'm Chad Abumrod.

And I'm Robert Krollwood. This is Radio Lab and our topic today is, you want to say the word? Stochasticity. Stochasticity. Stochasticity. Stochasticity. Stochasticity. Stochasticity. Stochasticity. Stochasticity. Stochasticity. Stochasticity. Stochasticity. Stochasticity. Stochasticity. Stochasticity. Stochasticity. Stochasticity. Stochasticity. Stochasticity. Stochasticity. Stochasticity. Stochasticity. Stochasticity. Stochasticity. Stochasticity. Stochasticity. Stochasticity. Stochasticity. Stochasticity. Stochasticity. Stochasticity. Stochasticity. Stochasticity. Stochasticity. Stochasticity. Stochasticity. Stochasticity. Stochasticity. Stochasticity. Stochasticity. Stochasticity. Stochasticity. Stochasticity. Stochasticity. Stochasticity. Stochasticity. Stochasticity. Stochasticity. Stochasticity. Stochasticity. Stochasticity. Stochasticity. Stoch. Stochasticity. Stochasticity. Stochasticity? Stochasticity. Stochasticity. Stochasticity. Which is a wonderful and fancy word that essentially means randomness, chance, like the kind that's built into flipping a coin or playing lottery,

or to take things deeper when you breathe. Crow, which is the thing about the air that's flowing around your head right now. It's full of atoms and molecules that are flying about and smashing into each other and colliding and shooting off in different trajectories that can't be predicted. It's totally chaotic, right? Mm-hmm. Until you breathe it all in. Ffff.

When you do, things get predictable. Can I release? Nope, nope. Okay. The point is when you breathe in all of those chaotic, fluxy molecules come in and become a part of the machinery that is you. They go into your blood. They go into your cells, which are themselves, these little factories. Factory is full of even tinier factories like mitochondria. What are mitochondria?

I'm not really sure. But I do know that's Jonah Lehrer again, himself, a factory of insight. Factory is full of these intricate things, which working, you can understand, this gene makes this protein, which makes this organelle, which does this thing for the cell. makes this organ out which does this thing for the sound.

This process is going to take in... flux and giving it a shape. Giving it an order. That is what life does. In fact, you might say it is the definition of life. The closer you get the more you stand in awe, the exquisite engine mirroring. There is a sense of life is simply the world's most elegant clock. Nice sleep put. Now, if life is a machine, you would think that the most clock-like, most machini part of life would be all the way down at the bottom. I would think so. Which for our purposes is when a gene makes a protein.

Gene. Protein. Gene. This is the basis of life. So you would think it's gotta be orderly, it's gotta be predictable. Otherwise, Gene none of us would be alive.

It is a very predictable orderly system, so we all believe. But then we spoke to this guy. Have I been talking to you? Yeah, you're right. And he must things up a bit. I can't be looking this way. Well, what's your name?

My name is Karl Zimmer. He's a science writer like Jonah. I relit for The New York Times and Scientific American and Discover. I blog. And he told us that this whole gene is making protein situation. As Tik Toki and Affairs, we've always assumed it to be, in fact, scientists have never actually seen it. I mean, it's very small.

But finally, scientists have figured out a way to turn on light when it happens, so they now can see a gene turning on approaching. Literally see it with their own eyes. Yeah. And what they saw, well, was astonishingly unclog-like. You know, at the fundamental level, it's just sloppy. Sloppy. And that's the best word for it. In fact, in our interview, he used that word like 42 times. Sloppy, sloppy, sloppiness.

Sloppiness. Sometimes he uses word random. Or they're fluctuating in this noise chaos noise Definitely use that one a lot. No noise noisy accident noise noise noise noise noise noise noise noise noise noise noise Noisey sloppy chaotic noise Sloppiness sloppy and fluctuating. It's it's fluctuating really crazy in there He started by telling us about this experiment that happened in California, Caltech, involving a little tiny bacteria called E. coli, which is Carl's favorite. Indeed.

Yeah, so these are E. coli. These are harmless residents of our gut. And they're also... Did you call them creatures? They're creatures, sure. They sense their world. They make decisions. They feed.

They reproduce. They have genes like us. They've got 4,000 genes. I think they're earned the title of creature. And these creatures are actually very similar to our own cells. Their genes make proteins just like ours. So what these scientists did was they took some ecolyte that were exactly the same. Clones in every single way.

They're genetically identical. And then they put the whole batch in a dish, and they said, okay, everyone, we're gonna turn on your gene, start making proteins. Now. And they watched. Because like you said earlier, they had found this new way of getting the E.coli to glow.

Every time it's genes, they made a protein. It seems like it ought to be like, it made a protein. It seems like it ought to be like just flicking a switch. You turn on the genes, click. Protein, protein, protein, protein, protein, protein, protein, protein, turn it off. Turn it on. Protein, protein, protein, protein, protein, protein, turn it off. Couldn't get simpler.

This is like a basic function of biology. Yeah, this is biology 101. And again, these are genetically identical E. coli. Meaning they've got the same genes, they're making the same proteins so they should glow the same. Right. You just expect the steady glow and all of them. Nice and steady. And that's not what happened. You can start with like an individual E. coli and say, okay, well, what happened with that one? It didn't start to glow. It started to flicker. There'd be a little bit of light. No light. A little bit more light.

Then maybe a sudden flash. Then dark again. Then a little bit of light. Hmm, as they were expecting. Yeah. What they got this time was, it was completely defective. Like a car with no muffler going. More troubling still when they looked at Ecoli number two, it too was defective.

Except in its own unique way. 2 had his own thing going. Same with number 3. He had his own thing going. I mean, they're genetically identical. Same with number 4. This is essentially the same creature in many different copies. And five.

Six, two, five, and seven. Each one was flickering in its own... Great! Pattern. Nine. Chaos, ten. Fluxulating eleven. Sloppiness. Noi.

Chaos. Jumbo. Chaos. Sloppiness. Sloppiness. Jumbo, random. Sloppiness. No noise, random noise. The noise?

Actually, hey, I don't know why you stop slapping me. No, no, no. No, the noise is a noise. Is this noise? Would not be a problem if it's just bacteria we're talking about. But according to Carl, it's everywhere, everywhere in us. We are built, he says, on a foundation of chaos. This is very puzzling to me because if down at a deep level of our DNA, there's just this

random mayhem, may Bedlam how do you go from bedlam up to the organization that I think I Represent I wake up in the morning. I go to sleep at night. I get hungry. I eat I breathe in I breathe out Listen to my heart I am very very orderly I don't know how you get from this. Look at this. That's right. I mean, so somehow,

all of this sloppiness has got to be somehow tamed because we're alive. I mean, it's not total chaos in our bodies. But... But you keep the sentence, never seems to quite finish. But we don't know how that happens, is that what... We have some ideas of how it happens. As scientists start to understand how genes work

with other genes, they can see ways in which you can filter out the noise and keep the good signal, keep the music. Okay, so do you want to sit for a moment? Anywhere really? Now this I find really cool. The research on this stuff is really new, but Carl says one of the ways that the body may do this. Testing. Dalu, hello.

May go from like, do, is by doing somethingch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch Hello, Dad. Tell me what you're holding in your hands there. In my hands, I have two audio tapes. The little wing just recently called me up. She said, I've got these two cassette tapes. They're really old. I think they were made in the 70s. Mom found them in her attic, and they're of my grandmother. One's labeled Mima singing. Singing.

Singing old slave songs, an old hymns. The little wings grandmother died last year. She was 99 years old. Wow. And they were really close. Yeah, very close. They used to call me a little Mima when I was a kid. So she's got these tapes she wants to hear them. The problem is that you put it on for more in three minutes, you get annoyed. And there's that weird like, it's too noisy. She wanted to know if I could do something about it. Yeah. So real quick, here's what I did. I put it into a computer, launched an EQ program, found the bass noiseiness, which was around 600 hertz, dialed that down. Like so. Then I found

the high frequencies, which are around 2000 hertz, dialed that down. Now, now as a final step I just kind of located the voice around a thousand hertz and dialed it up. Okay, so it's not a flawless process. I mean now she sounds like she's coming out of a well, but for the first time you can hear her voice. I don't know, this is the first time I'm hearing this song, but it seems like she's describing the night that my grandfather passed away, talking about the doctors telling her that my grandfather is passed, and then she's describing putting a fern in his hand and she said it should

be a rose. It was the end and the last goodbye. The thing that's applicable here is that we started with this. And then just by bringing certain frequencies down and others up, we ended up with this. I feel like I want you to cry. This might be how it is in the body. That you've got this noise all the way on the bottom, these genetic circuits,

which were spitting out messiness, but somehow just on top of that, are other genetic circuits, which are cleaning it all up, giving it a sh- Eh, wait, what? Is that not right? Not quite.

Damn it. Sorry, uns. What's wrong with it? Well, in our cells, there's no grandma. What do you mean there's no grandma? You don't start off with some very clear signal that gets masked by noise. The noise is there from the start.

It's noise, and then, whoop, all of a sudden you have this beautiful song. Carl went on to explain, and it took it like an hour for us to finally get this. There's nothing but noise down there at the bottom and yet somehow the song emerges like a phantom because it seems like the noise is somehow filtering itself into music. So if we were to get the analogy right, little wing would handjad a tape with just fragmented sounds. Little bits of me, mine. Little bits ofjad a tape with just fragmented sounds. Little bits of me, mine, all kinds of random ways.

Maybe she gave you eight or nine tapes. And somehow he says it all starts to get into a network where this one filters that one and that one filters the other one. The other one filters that ninth one. And out of all of that comes grandma comes a song the song of a living regular organism Neema literally I mean

grandma's are made from chaos I love that you say mm-hmm like there's almost like it seems like a miracle but if it stands up and walks See the thing is you hit I mean we are talking about something that scientists don't understand Yeah, so I don't have it so there's not a If you want to have a part of the show where you say and this people is how it all works can't do that No, but here's the thing if you want to get fruity about this

You could say and I put this to Carl, that if all the way down at the bottom of us there is this fuzz, it cannot be predicted, then in some sense, we're free to be whatever we want. Hmm. Well, you know, I mean, look, I can sit here and concentrate, and I can think any thought I want to write Now, you know sure, but you can't think about a poem from second century China Do you think that you think that you could you make an equivalence between loose mechanics and sense of freedom?

well You know, I mean does the the sloppiness and the floppiness of, uh, a protein clamping onto your DNA scale up to what you're going to be when you grow up on radio love? Yes. Okay. All right. Here we are. Hello, this is Karl Zimmer. This okestice theme song was created by Josh Kurtz and Shane Winter. Special thanks to Lil' Wingly, and Viva. Visit radio lab online at radialab.org where you can comment on the show at random questions and hear the entire Sausage City theme song. Anyways, this is little wing. Thank you, bye.

Hi, I'm Hazel and I'm from Silver Spray. Radio Lab was created by Chad Abelma. It's edited by Soren Wheeler. Lulu Miller and Lattier Fnassar are co-hosts. Dylan Keith is our director of Sound Design. Our staff includes Simon Adler, Jeremy Bloom, Becca Bressler, Aketty Foster Keith W. Harry Bortuna, David Gable, Maria Pazkutias, Sindhu Nainasam Badan, Matt Kielte, Annie McEwan, Alex Niesen, Sara Kari, Alyssa Drung Perry, Sarah Sandbach, Aryan Wack, Pat Walters, and Molly Webster. Our fact-truckers are Diane Kelly and Miley Krueger, in Natalie Middleton. Thank you.

Hi, this is Tamara from Pasadena, California. Thank you. Dundational Support for Radio Lab was provided by the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation.