Radiolab - The Weather Report

Episode Date: October 28, 2022

Meteorologists are as common as the clouds these days. Rolling onto the airwaves at morning, noon and night they tell us what to wear and where to plan our picnics. They’re local celebrities with an outsized influence. But in the 1940s, there was really only one of them: Irving P. Krick. He was suave and dapper, with the charm of a sunbeam and the boldness of a thunderclap. He was a salesman who turned the weather into a product. Today, listen to the story of Krick and his descendants, a crew of profit prophets who have found fame and fortune staring at the sky and seeing the future. We follow them from the bloody beaches of World War II to the climate changed coasts of today, exploring their impact and predicting what they’ll mean in our wackier weather world.  Special Thanks:Special thanks to Xandra Clark, Homa Sarabi, Santi Dharmawan, Francisco Alvarez, Maureen O’Leary and everyone at NOAA, Shimon Elkabetz, Jack Neff, Joe Pennington, Brad Colman, Morgan Yarker, Megan Walker, Eric Bramford, Jay Cohen and Irving Krick Jr for supplying us with tons of great archival footage and audio.  Episode Credits: Reported by Simon Adler and Annie McEwenProduced by Annie McEwen and Simon AdlerSound & Music by Simon Adler and Annie McEwen and Jeremy BloomMixing help from Arianne WackFact-checking by Diane KellyEdited by Soren Wheeler Citations: Books:  If you’re curious to know more about the history of weather forecasting, go check out Kris Harper’s book Weather by the Numbers. Video: We also asked Illustrator and Animator Sophia Twigt to make a little video explaining how the U.S. government agency NOAA collects and treats weather data to make weather forecasts. Here it is, narrated by Simon Adler. We hope you enjoy it:   Our newsletter comes out every Wednesday. It includes short essays, recommendations, and details about other ways to interact with the show. Sign up (https://radiolab.org/newsletter)! Radiolab is supported by listeners like you. Support Radiolab by becoming a member of The Lab (https://members.radiolab.org/) today. Follow our show on Instagram, Twitter and Facebook @radiolab, and share your thoughts with us by emailing [e-mail]. Leadership support for Radiolab’s science programming is provided by the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation, Science Sandbox, a Simons Foundation Initiative, and the John Templeton Foundation. Foundational support for Radiolab was provided by the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation.

Oh wait, you're listening. Okay. Alright. Okay. Alright. You're listening to Radio Lab. Radio Lab. From WNYC.

See? Yeah. Hi, I'm Lulu Miller. I'm Lathif Nasser. This is Radio Lab. And today we find out whether... Whether... ...the future of our society is best off in the hands of government science,

done for the public good, or big business, out to make a buck. It comes to us from Reborder, Simon Adler, and Annie McEwen. Okay, the only thing I'm gonna ask Annie is that you stay like right up on your mic. Yeah, okay, Simon, not a problem. Okay, so we're here to talk to you guys about

the thing you talk about when you don't know what else to talk about, which is the weather. That's great. That's good. But while talking about the weather, it might be the smallest of small talk, we're gonna start with the story where it was anything but.

It's early June 1944. We're going to be a tiny steamer up in YAH! War Bortu is raging We're going to be a tiny steamer up in YAH! Our eyes are now able to forward her. And the Allies. They're getting ready for Operation Overlord, which is the D-Day landing.

The largest invasion in human history. And not to put it to-fine point on it, they were dealing with really crappy weather. Big swells, strong winds. Rain. This, by the way, is meteorologist and historian Chris Harper. Professor at the University of Copenhagen. And she says the weather was so bad that Eisenhower was concerned,

they might not be able to do the invasion at all. Are we gonna have to postpone this by two weeks? If we have to postpone this by two weeks or a month, then like we've amassed all of these troops, like the element of surprise goes out the window. And so Eisenhower needed to know when there would be some calm periods, some breaks, so that they could go ahead and make the landing.

He needed a forecast. And I mean, there were only a handful of meteorologists in the military. And so he grabbed who he could get. This tall, dapper man, Irving P. Crick. Eisenhower needed that forecast out a week in advance in order to do this and we... This is him in an old TV interview. And in it, sporting this white shock of hair, hunched over a desk covered with weather maps.

There was the maps for the 50-60 June 1944. He says he was told to make this impossibly high stakes forecast. Literally life and death, like if the waves are too big, one of those boats is going to capsize and all those people are going to drown. Right. Of course he said now if you guys are right we'll all be heroes and it's a bust we'll all be privates. And eventually we took the right eventually. June 6th 1944. And when that date arrived. It is Armada, ever as some. D-Day, you hear us. What kind of a day was it? Well, it was a day in which every element of the combat team, the amphibious forces, the gliders, the bombers, everyone could operate.

And it was bad up around Calais where the Germans thought we were going to land, which was good. Because the Germans, therefore casters, said we would not come. They were fooled and then send reinforcements to Normandy until it was too late and told Romany before. It turned out okay. Well you get thank god. Yeah. And of course this victory became a huge news story. A life force have succeeded in their initial landings in France. The plans for the invasion were more complex than any before. In our man, Crick. And imagine being the man who had to come up with a D-Day forecast.

He became this hero. Dr. Crick, successful at fixed, June 6. Dr. Crick, the man who predicted D-Day. Gosh, go Irving. Yes, but only sort of. This is where the issue came in. Like, to be clear, well, Crick was getting all the credit. There were multiple teams of meteorologists who worked on this with him.

To British teams and an American team. Okay. And, in fact, Crick's forecast was overridden by these other guys who pushed it off for a couple of days. Ooh. Ooh. Yeah, right. Yeah, he didn't get the forecast right.

But when reporters would ask him about it, the regular weather service, both in this country and in England, did not feel confident in that type of situation. He'd take credit. They couldn't forecast beyond two days, really, and there was one storm after another coming across the Atlantic and meeting a week. They sent through and didn't want I anymore to take that risk. Wow. Oh, man. That just feels unnecessary. Yeah, it was really bad. But, but this wasn't odd. Chris says long before World War II,

Crick had a reputation for pushing the ethical boundaries. I mean, back in the 1930s, when he was working at Caltech, he got a phone call and it was the producers have gone with the wind and they said, hey, we need to burn down the city of Atlanta. What, what's that? Gala lands, must have sent fire to the warehouse near the depot. We can't have big gale for its wins coming in like what's the best day we can film this.

And so you know he gave them a forecast. Which is not inherently bad if you want to do forecasts for Hollywood. Super. But he made this forecast on university time with US weather bureau equipment and got paid for that. Wow. You know, like you just don't go there. You could piss a lot of people off with that one. Yeah. You just don't go there.

And so, well, these two famous forecasts. Editions had to be just right for the burning of it. Made him sort of a star in the eyes of the public. Dr. Irving Crick, the most successful weatherman in the world. The hottest thing in meteorological history. Professionally, it was a very different story. After D-Day, most meteorologists didn't want to be necessarily associated with Crick. And so the president of Caltech was so embarrassed by the whole thing.

And so he just completely shut down the entire meteorology department. So Buddy needs another place to take his skills. Yeah, not feeling so bad for him, but yeah. Yeah, at all. I don't think we need to feel bad for him. He sort of made his bed and is now lying in it. And because what he did next, well, it shook meteorology

and changed our relationship to the weather in ways we're just beginning to fully feel today. This is meteorologist Howard McNeil. He was a contemporary of Cricks. Yeah, he was very prismatic individual. And he was his own man. And so Howard says, after Crick got fired, he was basically like, fuck you. If you don't want me, I don't want you.

And in fact, I don't need you. Because you know what I got? I've got fame. And that thing I did for Gone With The Wind, providing a personalized forecast and getting paid for it, like I'll just do that. Private Weather Service. And those days, that was a pretty radical thought.

And so Crick started his own company, this sort of shadow weather bureau. Hiring people like Howard. And I went to work for Crick started his own company, this sort of shadow weather bureau, hiring people like Howard, and offering forecasts to anyone who would pay. And before long, business was booming for him. Thanks to his talent, Crick's list of clients reads like a world atlas. His work has brought praise from a host of private clients. We were doing all this consulting work for the motion picture studios and power, and is an agriculture.

Wanting to avoid costly, rescheduling or delays, farmers hired him to tell them when to water. Film crews hired him to tell them when to fill. Civil engineers working on bridges, construction people. Builders when to build. For the US on bridges, construction people. Builders when to build. For the US, Canada, Europe, and North Africa. To help his retail clients, he did things like direct shipments of umbrellas to stores where it would be raining and sunblock shipments to places where it'd be sunny.

He even dabbled in marketing. Hurling wet, heavy snow, 32-lulose. When you sit here, Ralph, for the past 20 days, we're so tricky. I mean, in a matter of years, the guy did what no one thought was quite possible, which was he turned the weather into this product. Now's the time to say it. I'm going to wash more cow. Beautiful way tomorrow mostly sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny sunny You're not alone. Okay, do you remember anything about what the meteorological communities view as a crick? Well, they just did like the idea of selling them.

Chris Harper actually interviewed a bunch of meteorologists from back then about this very thing. Meteorologists like Edward Lorenz here. So, part of the concern that he was selling the forecast? Yes, people didn't know us a bit. This was what they were. I don't know how we have to go. And as he explained to Chris, up until this point, I mean, the US government was meteorology in the United States. And they were totally focused on the public good and keeping people safe.

But Craig, you know, he was doing it for profit, which sometimes meant stretching the truth. Okay. All right. Okay. Like here in this TV interview, a doctor, first question is just for those who don't know. Commercially, what can you offer a client

in terms of long range weather? Well, we can offer them temperature and precipitation far out into the future. Sometimes for years and advance. Wow. Okay. Yeah, he claimed he could forecast a year out. Which even today, if you ask a meteorologist,

they'll tell you it just isn't possible. Now the way we've discerned it is unique because... We don't make a theory and then try to fit nature to our theory. I learned this 50 years ago when studying with Einstein. He said, don't try to... Einstein? Yeah. You just watch nature and let nature tell you what it's doing

and then you'll have the answers. And that's basically what we've done. And just for the record, Crick may have bumped into Einstein once or twice at Caltech, but he certainly didn't study with him. Like, Profit got involved and he was no longer just a scientist. He's a salesman is what he is. And ironically, all of the data he was using to make these forecasts, to make this money, it was all government data. And yet, for reasons that remain sort of unknowable, And yet for reasons that remain sort of unknowable, the man seemed to have a vendetta against the very institution providing it to him.

In fact, Crickson, Basin, he told me privately, one time he said, I like to close down the National Weather Service. That's what my goal is to close them down, have it all turned over to private enterprise. Come on. That's what my goal is to close them down and have it all turned over to private enterprise. Oh! That's a super villain thing to say. Yeah. Wow. Then he cackled maniacally after he said it at the time.

I don't know. Clap of thunder. Yeah, yeah, right exactly. Then lightning. Now, Crick kept making forecasts up until his death, and his company is actually still around today. But of course, you know, he didn't manage to take down government weather. Well, it's hot as balls. And thank goodness. Where are we?

We're at the weather palace of the United States of America And it is a palace because I got to say like in the years since crack Government weather has become our maybe our best it's a glass building that maybe our only remaining Example of a true marriage between government serving the public good and the highest levels of science. And so to see this up close, we went to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NOAA, to meet some of the people who pulled this off every day. What do you have on your tie here?

This is Earth and Weather satellites. And did you wear it for us or do you wear on your tie here? This is earth and weather satellites. And did you wear it for us or do you wear something this every day? I mix it up. Yeah, I like to show a little bit of weather in my attire. I don't have my lightning socks on today. We're your lightning socks too. Now I try to find something. I always find it. And hanging out with these folks, like meteorologist Jordan Gurth here. My actual title is Leveraged Observations Lead.

L-O-L. It was clear that weather forecasting is this incredible triumph of data capture and analysis. Weather data are the basis of prediction. So we collect so many different kinds of observations that the amount of data that comes in is absolutely enormous. It's just the best big data problem that I think we have on this planet. So, yeah, let's talk about that for a minute.

How many observations will you all be taking in this day? In the removal amount. Billions. Billions. Billions. 6.3 billion. This stuff gets fed into computer models and lands on the desks of scientists like constantly switching between different surface observations. Ian Russell and Allison Santarelli. Yeah, so I'm working on France in the Media Range period, which who blend that data with other data during that period that I'm forecasting for. Comparative historical data. There's Jason, he's working on ocean prediction. Subtaining.

And simply put, synthesize it into the forecast that you and I get for free every day. All of this so that we can decide whether to wear a light coat or a heavy coat. Exactly. And also, the National Weather Service and Indianapolis has issued a tornado warning for, you know, prepare for the worst. I mean, these forecasts and these warnings save an untold number of lives each year,

which, you know, in our divided times is sort of strangely unifying. Like, Noah is equally looking out for all of us, And nobody's like, you know, those Democrats, they've been putting their finger on the scale and saying it's gonna rain. Yeah, whatever. Yeah, whatever. Yes. Like, everyone's basically like,

Good, yeah, yeah, okay, I'm gonna plan using this information that the government has provided to me. Does feel neutral. Yes. People by and large trust them. Yeah. But yes, here's the but. We're now at a moment in time

where the government's scientific dominance when it comes to the weather and this view of weather forecasting as a public good, these are both under threat. In a sense, Irving Cricks dream is finally coming to fruition. MINA changes in whether can trigger major business impact. I mean, private weather forecasting

is currently a $17 billion a year industry in the US. We use weather forecasts to improve customer service. Embed weather into your business for deep-bent. With one report saying there is many as 45,000 different companies involved. 45,000 Irving P. Cricks. Take control of tomorrow, today. And on our trip to visit NOAA.

We have a quarter mile. You've arrived at your destination. So where are we going? We are going to... We actually drove out to meet one of them. Oh, there he is. This dude waving at us. Well...

Hi. A poker man. Hello. This is Annie. Hi, Annie. How are you? Good, how are you? Good to see you. Thank you for having me.

This silver haired, always smiling guy by the name of Don Berchoff. CEO of two other solutions. They call me the weather Don Berschoff. CEO of True Weather Solutions. They call me the weather Don in the business. He is the weather Don. That's so good. They do, right? I mean, yeah.

Are you wearing socks with umbrellas on them? Yes, I am. Before starting True Weather Solutions, Don was kind of a big deal inside the National Weather Service. I was assigned to Technology Director at $130 million dollar budget. My job was to find the best science, the best technology, and try to integrate it into operations. Anyhow, we met up with him at a drone range.

This big open field where people can test their unmanned aircraft. Right, we're going to see his drone, and there's dawn in the zone. We're going to see the toys. And the reason we were there was actually to see one of his. Look at this thing. OK. Can I pick this thing up here? It was all black, weighed about five pounds.

It's very light. Looked a lot like a curling stone with a bunch of propellers attached to it. It's science quality, measures temperature, wind, pressure. It's fully automated. It's amazing. In this little drone, it represents a huge shift that's underway. Because well, Crick had to rely on the government for data, Don with a fleet of these drones

and other devices is beginning to collect and sell his own. We've never had this kind of data before. Okay, well, so we were at NOAA and they were saying 6.3 billion observations every day. How is this going to make a dent in that. Well, maybe what Noah would tell you is that we have a date of void below 5,000 feet. The satellites do very well at detecting wind and moisture and things like that above that level. But below that level, the only thing we have today to measure temperatures and winds and pressure is weather balloons.

It's ridiculous. Yeah, it turns out the government's and winds and pressure is weather balloons. It's ridiculous! Yeah, it turns out the government's best way to collect atmospheric observations is still launching balloons up into the sky twice a day. So having something like this going up every 90 minutes and giving you data, it's going to be the game changer. But it's not just this that's going to help us.

Next, Don walked us over to this mini fridge size device with a Eyeball looking mirror on the top of it. This is just basically a laser that pops straight up and looks up in the sky So right here out of the eye Yeah, and can see particulate matter moving like rain drops or no no dirt. And then it computes the winds from the movement of those particles and tells us what the winds are doing up to 800 feet at 10 layers. It gives us 10 layer wind measurement. Again, we don't have that data today. And why are you doing this?

And why isn't Noah doing this? You really want me to answer that question? Of course I do. All right. So something like this is very difficult to get into the budget because it requires resources. And I'm not sure it's necessary to meet their mission. Don says the government's goal is to make big national forecasts.

And to do that, there are better things for them to spend their money on. But companies, obviously, they have very different goals and therefore need very different kinds of data. Walmart's super inflation buster sale blasts through the inflation barrier with big discounts. I mean, just as one example of what these companies are up to, several years back Walmart came out and explained that cross-referencing their weather and sales data, they found that clouds and wind influenced the beef people by,

meaning if it's hot, cloudy and windy, I wanna cut that's 10, that's juicy, and that's age just right. For some reason, people tend to buy steak. So natural steaks from Walmart. But the minute those clouds go away and the winds lessen, people want burgers. And knowing this, Walmart is serving you different digital ads based on the weather at your zip

code. I mean, companies are beginning to use weather data to guide their business in the same way Facebook and Google use user data. And when we turn on investment, maybe a 500. And Don says, for lots of these companies, the government's data, it's just not what they're looking for. It's not precise enough. So we actually are going to bring precision to the game.

It's like a true salesman. No, spoke like a true scientist. No, it's a SOMA scientist. I'm not selling you here. I'm telling you, I know that we can do better. Now Don's quick to point out that that his data It could be used to help improve government forecasts. No, it's gonna want buy this data And I talked to a weather service the other day about this. I'm not trying to hide it because when you combine these types of observations

With the government data put it into our models now you're gonna have unimaginable Knowledge of what's happening, but just because Don's willing to share, doesn't mean that every company is going to be so open. And so, well, any company out there can get all of the government's data for free. There's no promise that the government or you or I or any government agency is going to have access to their data. You got it. There are commercial data sets that the government may not be getting. And so at some point, there's going to be a company here that's going to outperform the government forecast. And at that point, you know, what's the future of government weather? Or more pointedly, what's the future of how we use the weather

to make decisions? We've just started working with cities as well. The city of Hoboken is an example. Lastly here, this is Dan Sleggen. He's the CMO of a commercial forecasting company called tomorrow.io. Like Don's company, they are collecting their own data. We take into account both public and private data sets

and they're launching a satellite later this year and they're doing crazy things like looking at the way a cell phone signal drops between towers because they found they can figure out rainfall from that. That's so weird. Wow. Anyhow, he says Hoboak and hired them to provide information that the weather service just

couldn't. They first started working with us to cut costs around specifically winter, snow, and icing operations. So just meaning how many trucks do we need to send out, how much salt do we need to deploy? And well, snow removal is harmless enough with climate change. Every single city, every single government, every single country is going to need a climate security and climate resiliency plan. In other words, as the weather gets less predictable and more impactful, In other words, as the weather gets less predictable and more impactful, cities are going to have to make all sorts of tough decisions about what building permits to give, where to draw

new floodplains, and where to put new cooling centers. Right now, we're seeing cities start to understand that you can really use us to make all these types of decisions. So the need for what we're doing is only gonna become bigger and the approach that we've taken, we really expect to be the source of truth for the weather for the world. Wow, it's that thing.

It's like you add, I mean, you have the, you know, U.S. weather bureau and I just feels like civic goodness will collect, will report, will be in it together to help each other. And then you add this sort of market incentive and it just evolves the technology so much quicker. Totally. And I mean, returning to Crick once more, like despite his faults, the guy was forecasting with a computer before the weather service. And you could argue pushed government weather into the computer age. But with this speed and innovation comes less equity, right?

Yep. Yeah. I mean, what happens when two cities next to each other have to figure out where to put flood walls? And one of them can afford a company with proprietary data, and one can't. I mean, it appears, the weather, this thing we've all had equal access to, is beginning to fracture, so that the more money you've got, the better the predictions you can get, and the better you can plan and prepare.

And this is happening right as summers are getting hotter, as hurricanes are getting stronger, as rain and thunderstorms are getting more intense. So the timing isn't great for all of this to be happening is what I would argue. That's a very good point. So you can take a minute to think about all that. But when we come back, Simon and I dive into a particular place where profit-driven weather prediction might just be the thing, the only thing that can help us face our changing world. And we'll get to that right after a quick break. There is a continual battle going on between warm air moving up from the tropics and cold air coming down from the Arctic. A weather front is where the two air masses meet.

The cold air piles in under the warm air and throws it up to where it's cooler. That in turn causes it to lose its moisture as rain or snow. That very simply is the process of weather. Different fronts and pressure patterns creating every kind of weather imaginable. Hi, this is Mara Bessabessa Bell from from Oregon, and I just wanted to tell you about Radio Labs newsletter. Every Wednesday morning, the team at Radio Labs sends essays about stuff they can't stop thinking about, staff recommendations, and other fun surprises. My favorite part of the newsletter so far was Robert Crowley's video called Engine Trouble.

They read about so many things. Dogs that talk, empathy, and animals, sad bug body parts, plus staff picks are so cool. Maria Paz Gutierrez has the best playlists. And they'd love to hear from us. They ask us questions, we get to share our art, stories, and feedback. Sign up now, it's free. Go to radiolab.org slash newsletter to subscribe and check it out. radio lab we are back before the break we witnessed a parade of salesmen trying to make

a buck off the wind and rain and now we're going to hear a story about a for-profit profit who just might be our best hope for the future. Thanks so much for that Lulu and of course for that story we're going to swivel to the Weather desk where our crack team of forecasters Simon Adler and Annie McEwan will take it from here. Alrighty so for this next part we're going to leave behind Crick and go on with the wind and turn to something that is perhaps more worthy. Yeah, definitely.

Of the silver screen. Wait, who would play you? Who do you want to play? I don't know. I mean Sandra Bullock, I take her. Okay. This is Karen. Karen.

Are? Playing herself. Yes. And the scene opens 1987 London England in a large high ceiling wood-panelled room. It was called the law it's still the Lloyds library She's at a place called Lloyds Lloyds of London the oldest insurance marketplace in the world very successful very prestigious and so rich They even ensure insurance companies. It's called re-insurance. Well, this taking is their business. These are the big dogs of the insurance industry, and about 150 of them in well-tailored suits

are taking their seats. They were all men, very proper British men. I don't even know if women were allowed in lois at the time. No, really. Probably they were. Probably they were. But you didn't see many women there, except for the administrative help. And Karen, who is young and American and a woman, makes her way to the front of the room. I was seven months pregnant at the time,

whoa, waddling around, setting up this computer, which I don't know if you know what a compact computer is, but a portable computer, you kind of had to wheel it in. Stretching the definition of portable, yes exactly. And she was there to give a presentation on a kind of tool that she had just built my hurricane model. The world's very first predictive hurricane computer model. The world's very first predictive hurricane computer model. Whoa. She showed them how by gathering all the scientific data on past hurricanes and plugging it into a computer, she was able to generate a very large catalog

of potential future events. A list of possible hurricanes on the horizon. She then showed them if she slammed those possible future hurricanes into some properties, say on the eastern coast of the United States, she could prove that the lost potential was much higher than insurance companies thought. The insurance safety net was far too small to cover the damage that she was there to tell them was coming. And that meant all those men sitting damage that she was there to tell them was coming. And that meant all those men sitting in that room were going to lose money.

A lot of money. Right. Wait, question. Question. Is she sniffing out climate change? Well, she's not quite sniffing out climate change. Like this is the mid 1980s. So it's a little early to be on top of that. It's more like she thought that she could offer something that government services could not. Like, the government was letting people know if a hurricane was on its way,

but they were not forecasting out 10, 20, 30 years in terms of what hurricanes could look like. And Karen figured that that's exactly what the insurance industry really needs. But when she finished her presentation, instead of a flurry of excitement... It was very silent. I don't think there were any questions. No questions.

No questions. But they were very polite, you know, very respectful. Is it because they thought you were wrong or the model was wrong or why weren't they more interested? Well, you know, they were already re-insuring hurricane risk in the US and they thought they do it very well because they had been making a lot of money in the 1970s and in the early 1980s, there were no major hurricanes to hit, especially a major populated area in the US.

So, you know, when it came to Hurricane Br came risk, they were already the smartest people on the planet, of course. But that was not gonna last. -♪ Got your teeth work, channel four. So we're gonna zoom ahead here to 1992. By this time, Karen has started her own company. And she has a five-year-old at home. Yeah, almost five.

And she's got also two other kids. So she's got three kids now. Okay. And she's doing the thing. She's doing computer modeling. Yes. She has about 30 clients. She helps them price insurance,

offers day of loss estimates. Whenever there's a hurricane, and her clients are using her model. But rather than letting it guide their decisions, they're sort of just using it as, you know, one data point of many. In other words, they were not really taking it seriously. Exactly.

45-month-old-hour winds now, not very high, which brings us to a Friday afternoon in late August. There was a tropical storm out there named Andrew. Oh, okay. It was pretty far out and nobody was really worried about it. I'm in just few hands, Kelly and Jordan. And speaking of Andrew, you can't help but wonder how the prince is reacting to the latest royal rocket.

Everybody thought it was just going to be a nice weekend. But- Eight minutes after six, the first tropical storm of the season getting stronger, not weaker, very quickly. And probably it's going to get even stronger. That changed. And by 11 a.m. on Sunday morning, the whole puree of hurricane Andrew continues to head toward the southeast coast

to Florida, meaning that he means our good morning, I guess. It was a cat for a hurricane walk is now an effect for South Florida, an absolutely enormous hurricane headed directly for Miami. People stop driving. It's not safe to be driving on these streets anymore. It is starting to rock and roll out here. The power just went out throughout all of this hallowed area. The ocean has begun to unfame the land.

Absolutely. The most intense part of bar storm right now is coming sure. Get that interior closet. Get your family in there. Get the bed one. Get the bed one. We understand right now we can perhaps get the first look at what's going on up in the air from Sky 4.

Rod Pierce, are you with us right now? Yes, I am. We're going to look to show you some of the devastation down here. The day lands rail approach. You can talk with both Buddy and the K. And let us know in after question. The destruction that Andrew left behind was completely staggering. This is about 8.30 this morning. And this is their view of the building. The place looks bad. It was like Hiroshima.

Tell me what you think. 65 people died. Thousands and thousands of people lost everything. Kids were saying, Mommy, what happened? Why is God doing this to us? My husband was holding the roof, but the father and not the holding the roof? Everything fell off. This is terrible. I wish I'd never go through this again.

And while it was obvious to everyone that Andrew had been a big one, shortly after the storm made landfall, Karen knew that as soon as possible, her clients were going to need to know how much is the total damage going to be. What is the storm's price tag? And so that same morning, very early, we came into the office. They turned on the lights and fired up the computer model. They wouldn't know the true extent of the damage for months. And the numbers, of course, were still flowing in,

so that meant that we had to run as fast as possible, as many scenarios as possible. They plugged into the model estimates on where it made landfall, geek wind, size, as well as an estimate of all the values of all the properties that had been hit. The homes and the businesses. People's things, people's lives that had been in the Andrews' path, and they'd run the model. And then change the parameters, rerun the model, tweaking it and running it.

Let's look at the uncertainty. Suit jackets had been taken off. Let's run it again. sleeves had been rolled up. Does that look right? I don't know. Coffee had been spilled. It was pretty frantic, but because it was 1992, was there one computer?

Are you all in computers with headsets? No, we didn't have headsets at the time. I don't think that's even existed. I had one. We just had one major computer. It was a Sunspark server. It had 16 meg of RAM and one gig of hard disk But that's what we were running it on so it was more like agitated waiting for the computer to spit out a number

The computer's getting really hot. Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes. It was Fan is worrying exactly But finally oh my god. They had their number Uh And then they just kind of sat there staring at it asking each other could that be right? Because up until that very moment the largest loss today had been Hugo in 89 and that was only four billion and the computer model was currently telling them that Andrew's price tag could exceed 13 billion

Jesus whoa telling them that Andrew's price tag could exceed 13 billion. Jesus. Whoa. That was three times higher than any hurricane ever. If you're right, and this thing costs 13 billion, what would that actually mean for them? That they had been dramatically underestimating the risk, and they had been dramatically underpricing their product. This is what she's been trying to tell her clients all along. They not been charging people enough money for their insurance, and therefore they wouldn't

have enough money on hand for what she was arguing would be. A much bigger loss than they thought. Karen and her team faxed out the giant number. And within 30 minutes, the phone started ringing off the hook. Karen's clients in London and New York refused to believe that number, saying things like, A few mobile homes and an Air Force base. How much can it be?

And I'll bet you five quid. It won't be more than six billion. We were getting so much skepticism. At least, that's the kind of reaction she was getting from guys in suits leaning back in office chairs. But on the ground, it was a different story. It was unbelievable. It was just hard to fathom what had happened.

This is Danny Miller. And I've been in the insurance industry right at 31 years now. In 92, Danny was a law sugester. And three weeks after Andrew hit, he was down in the wreckage of South Florida. Three signs were blown away. There were no landmark. Just trying to do his best to

actually find the properties, trying to reach policy holders. Forgot how to get to catch into people's hands at the ETA. And every night when he went back to his hotel, all the people sitting around the dinner table with him had been out working in the field

all day too. And you had a bunch of electrical workers there. You had a bunch of insurance adjusters and some military folks. And then you would cook out and you would make the best of it. What was the dinner table conversation like? I've listened. I was younger at the time and talking to adjusters that have been in this business a lot longer than I had. They would talk about the losses. They would talk about the number of claims, I think, was north of 700,000. Were you getting a sense from these other adjusters that financially this was bigger than anything they had been involved with before?

Absolutely. No doubt. Signed right. Me to cut you off there. But yeah, from day one, you knew that it was bigger than anything that the entrance industry had ever dealt with before. You know, it was evident that it was going to change the industry. This, this is total devastation here at Tammy Ami Airport. When the total damage in dollar form finally came in, Karen had been right. It actually turned out to be 15 billion. There is not a roof to be found in this neighborhood. And kind of overnight, people realized the homeowners

and the business insurance had been woefully underpriced. And those insurance companies were in big trouble. A couple of carriers that we worked for became and solved it during Andrew. Bankrupt, they basically went out of business. For some insurance providers, there was just no coming back from Andrew. Some of the guys were more experienced

when they were talking about kind of watching the assignment you were getting, right? Because you didn't want to work for free, you know, you want to work for pennies on the dollar. And you heard about that happening? Or do people you had worked for that had happened to? Yeah, I mean, what a cool or talk, you know? And the ones that didn't totally go under started to realize that they were going to have to

start charging a lot more. However, those companies, along with worrying about their profits, also have to deal with the government, the state government. Into these insurance companies, the government was saying, no way. You can't charge whatever price you want. How are the people supposed to afford insurance? And obviously, the insurance regulators in Florida

wanted to tamp down increases to the consumers. And so a lot of his homeowner and property insurance companies just left. And to this day, most of them had not returned. And this all meant that when the dust of Andrew had settled, there were over half a million homes along the coast of Florida that could not find insurance. And you could argue that while that is hard,

maybe it's for the best. Maybe people shouldn't be building there. Maybe it doesn't make any sense. But this is where the Florida government steps in again. Because people want to build there. And politicians want to give people what they want. And so, you had citizens stand up. The Florida legislature gets together

and they create what becomes known as citizens' property insurance. That became the largest insurer in the state of Florida. A state run insurance company, which formed to ensure any homeowners that aren't able to get cover in the private market. And they charge far less than the private insurance companies. If you're in South Florida and you can get citizens covered to 30 to 40% less than the

private market, you're going to do that. And since Andrew and citizens' property insurance, that coast has kept on booming. There was just a vast accumulation in the dryounty area, which is continued to grow. And this government thing is underwriting all of it. Correct. Wow. It's crazy to take a bet that you know is going to lose. Right.

And you know, it's obvious that it's not just an economic bet they're taking. Because when a hurricane rips its way along the Florida coast, along with all those buildings and properties, it's also destroying lives, people in harm's way. Robin, good morning. As you can see, the sun has come up here in Naples, and it's our first real view of the destruction the devastation left behind by Hurricane Irma.

Extremely powerful and extremely dangerous. Hurricane Katrina, Hurricane Center Charlie heads toward the Florida West Coast. Since Andrew, there have been about 50 that's 5 0. Hurricanes are tropical storms that have caused damage to property or loss of life in Florida. Hurricane Wilma barrels down on the Gulf Coast of Florida. Hurricane Ian, the strongest September barrels down on the Gulf Coast of Florida. Hurricane Ian, the strongest

September hurricane, to strike the Gulf Coast in more than 15 years. The extent of the damage is... And I mean now know that climate change is warming the oceans and making the sea levels higher. And for hurricanes, that means bigger, stronger, more destructive storms plowing into more and more heavily built up coastlines and the people who live there. Out on the barrier islands, if you're listening, please heed this warning that if things get so bad out there, nobody is going to take a chance, rescue services, the managers, emergency operation

managers say they are not going to go on suicide missions out to folks on the barrier. While the government's actions seem to be ignoring that reality, the insurance companies are staring it right in the face. Yeah, I mean the insurance industry, if you're not going to a conference that does not talk about climate change, you know, it is an obstacle and a challenge that we're dealing with every day. And after Andrew Karen's model, it really exploded and you know every re-insurer had to have it. And every insurance company had to have it. And of course it grew to other perils, earthquakes, tornadoes,

e-elstorms. And Karen incorporates climate change data into a lot of her models. But whether or not they're effective. At the end of the day, it is a political decision, really, that, you know, for example, like wildfire in California, right now the California Department of Insurance, they won't allow the catastrophe models, for some reason, they don't want the catastrophe models.

So, you know, what the hell is that about? Yeah, because they are afraid that it's going to make the premiums go up. But as a consequence, they have a huge availability problem, and they have the same problem after Andrew, they have a fair plan, which is the state insurer of last resort that's ballooning now because you can't get wildfire insurance in California. Wow. That's insane. That's totally insane. It's like let's put a blindfold on. Exactly. It doesn't make sense. And just to be clear, California doesn't want that model to be run, because then there would be hard numbers staring them in the face. Much like yours with Hurricane Andrew about how big the beg they might be holding would

be and therefore premiums have to go up. Therefore, everyday Californians need to pay an extra 50 bucks a month for their insurance. Is that the idea? Well, I can't speak to their motivation, but we can hypothesize on it. And if that's your theory, I'm not going to dispute it. I just think it's weird. I mean, it just kind of swaps out public institutions and for-profit institutions in my head. I mean, I have this very simplified understanding of corporations as not thinking ahead, just getting what they want, leaving messes behind, you know, and I think of the government

as trying to not do that. And it's just sort of interesting that in this case, there's like a flip and there's action happening, but it's happening to simplify it like from the bad guys, you know. Well, and there's a little bit of both on both sides there. This is director emeritus for the American Meteorological Society Keith Cider. And we ran all this by him, the story of Irving Crick, this insurance situation, and his take was oddly comforting. You know, market forces, if you want to think in terms of a market that doesn't care about people or about,

or any of those sorts of things, you know, I would be sort of a uncaring market, all by itself is going to try to drive us in the right direction. You know, renewable energy now is the cheapest way to make electricity. And so the economic drivers are not ones where we have to say, oh, we have to give up something to get electricity that's clean.

Now, it's that's the cheapest way to get it. And that gives me optimism because that means that now the people who do not want to see us move in the directions we have to move are working against market forces. And it's hard to work against market forces for a very long. Right. And so even if greed is on your side, then you've got a chance to move the ball a lot faster. I want greed on my side all the time.

Yeah, me too. Greed is like an incredible wind at one's back. Ha, ha, ha. The road to Eden is paved with bad intentions. Ha, ha, ha. Maybe sometimes. It's greed that got us into this problem. It's the exploitation of natural resources

in the name of the almighty dollar that got us into this problem. And it's hard for me to imagine a way out that doesn't have those same characters at the forefront. Greed is green. Greed is green. Ha ha. This episode was reported by Simon Adler and Annie McEwen, produced by Simon Adler and Annie McEwen, with sound and music from Simon Adler and Annie McEwen.

Mixing help from Ariane Wack and Jeremy Bloom. Special thanks to Sandra Clark, Homosarabi Sanji Darmawan, Francisco Alvarez at Convoy Inc. Maureen O'Leary, and everyone at NOAA Simon Elkabetz of tomorrow.io. Jack Neff, Joe Pennington, Brad Coleman, Morgan Yarker, Megan Walker, Eric Bramford, J. Cohen, and Irving Crick Jr. for supplying us with tons of great archival footage and audio. If you're curious to know more about the history of weather forecasting, go check out Chris Harpers' book, Weather By The Numbers.

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