Raging Moderates with Scott Galloway and Jessica Tarlov - A War That Trump Won’t End — and an Economy Starting to Feel It

Episode Date: April 24, 2026

Trump says the ceasefire is holding — but the bigger question is: what’s actually changed? Jessica Tarlov and Aaron Parnas break down a Middle East conflict that feels stuck in place while the consequences keep escalating. Oil prices have surged past $100, the U.S. is burning through thousands of missiles, and tensions with Iran are still boiling beneath the surface as both sides escalate in the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, the ripple effects are hitting closer to home — from rising fuel costs to surprising supply chain impacts that could drive up everyday prices in ways most Americans didn’t see coming. Back in the U.S., the political chaos isn’t slowing down. A major redistricting fight in Virginia heads to the courts, the high-stakes California governor race starts to take shape with big-money candidates, and Republicans float the possibility of a Ghislaine Maxwell pardon — raising serious questions about accountability. And in a moment that feels almost too on-the-nose, Alex Jones melts down as The Onion takes over Infowars, with plans to convert it into a parody site — with proceeds going to Sandy Hook victims. Plus: Trump plans to attend the White House Correspondents’ Dinner. Pre-order Jessica's new book I Disagree: Winning Arguments Without Losing Friends out in September! ⁠https://a.co/d/02RdR1Wa⁠ Follow Jessica Tarlov, @JessicaTarlov  Follow Prof G, @profgalloway  Follow Raging Moderates, @RagingModeratesPod  Subscribe to our YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/@RagingModerates Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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From, binge all episodes exclusively on Paramount Plus. Welcome to Raging Moderates. I'm Jessica Tarloff. And I'm Aaron Parnas. Aaron is in a really good mood today, guys. So get excited. I'm hydrated. I slept. Yes, and his baby did the cooing thing, the overnight cooing when they're still asleep, but they're still talking. Correct. She did not. Public that I could share that. It's cute. Yeah, for sure. I mean, if it wasn't, it is now. Breaking news.

Good point. Put that banner up there. Click and subscribe for this kind of breaking news, Aaron's baby action. Next thing you know, Jessica's going to sell my baby's picture to TMZ for the highest bidder. But continue. No, I'm not doing that. Also, that TMZ is so busy with Capitol Hill. It's, I really adore it. hilarious. Yes.

I feel like they're getting some things wrong-ish because they don't know procedures and things like that. And you're just kind of like, why does Congress operate this way? And it's like, yeah, we've all been asking, you know, asking that question. Yeah, it's great. There's so much to get to. And I, frankly, I was just like, want to wait. through everything so we can talk about the White House Correspondents Center because it's the weekend. But we are still at war with Iran. President Trump announced that Israel and Lebanon have agreed to extend their ceasefire for another three weeks. Pete Hagseth gave a press conference this morning where he says the U.S. was not at all anxious for a deal with Iran. And I think, you know, a three-week extension of the Israeli-Lebanese ceasefire probably indicates that that's true. This comes as the conflict in the Middle East continues to have ripple effects around the globe oil barrel prices topping out over 100. Real impacts here in the U.S. a lot of reporting about

the depleted U.S. stockpiled. The New York Times in particular wrote about how thousands of missiles have been fired by the U.S. since the conflict with Iran began in February. And that use of resources puts America in a much more vulnerable position in regards to China, Russia, and other potential adversaries. Like, we wouldn't be able to defend Taiwan right now, which is very concerning, because Xi Jinping is also probably a subscriber to the New York Times. We have an ongoing question mark of the conflict with Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz or our blockade of their blockade. The U.S. military up the ante by boarding a vessel carrying oil from Iran to China.

Iran says they will not reopen the straits so long as the U.S. blockade remains in place. Trump has been relatively quiet. I mean, he gave a press conference-ish yesterday or answered questions from the press, ruled out the future use of a nuclear bomb, but he clearly just wants to talk about other stuff. I did love this clip that I'm about to show you, though, about the timeline for the war. On the war with Iran, how long are you willing to wait until you get a unified response? Don't rush me, Jeff. You know, guys like you, you want to say, oh, so we were in Vietnam, like, for 18 years.

We were in Iraq for many, many years. We're in for all the, I don't like to say World War II because that was a biggie, but we were four and a half, almost five years in World War II. We were in the Korean War for seven years. I've been doing this for six weeks. He set that deadline. He said it was going to last six weeks. That's what he said.

But he also just like even putting what's going on right now in a conversation with Vietnam, loosely with World War II, with Iraq, Afghanistan, is deeply concerned. I mean, putting aside the, like, Boeing Spurs thing, which I always love to pick on him for his four or five deferments or whatever it was for Vietnam. Like, they said this wasn't even a war. And now we're talking about like, don't rush me. It took 18 years to deal with Vietnam. No, I mean, he's actually like, it's sundowning right in front of our eyes. That's what I kind of chalk it up to. You did,

like, rattle off all those headlines. You missed probably my favorite headline, favorite as in like, this is the onion in 2026. Now, if you saw it, but a U.S. service member was going from Japan to Vietnam to the Middle East to do mind sweeping, and he was scratched by an Asian monkey and had to be emergency evacuated back to Japan. Now, I hope he's okay, obviously, but like in the year of our Lord 2026, we have Asian monkeys scratching service members going to not a war war in the Middle East. It's just nuts. It's nuts. It's nuts. It really is. And I honestly, like, I don't even know how to even report on it anymore because it's like market manipulation right in front of our eyes. He doesn't care if Marco Rubio is betting on Polly Market.

He's saying that as long as our service members are betting on us and not against us, we're essentially good. Like, this is insane. It's all insane. Yeah, this quote of, The whole world has become a casino. It is what it is, which is what he says about everything. Like, you know, something of applying to Jeffrey Epstein, all of them making money off

of the war that they're in control of. It actually makes a lot of sense to me, what he says, because the world really right now is like Trump Casino in Atlantic City. It's very similar. Everything's getting bankrupted. Shit's like hitting the fan. Will it close down though? Will it close?

Will the world close? No, he's not going to use a nuclear weapon. No, the Trump casino. Like just the Trump presidency. Oh, the Trump presidency, maybe. Yeah, because it was the comparison, right? That's what you were doing there. Also, special shout out for Eric Trump going on TV and bragging about his new contract with the Defense Department,

in which he did not at all have any inside. track on whatsoever. What are we doing? Oh, my God. Between him and now Don Jr., wanting to train our military service members through a new MMA company he started, like that... I'm over. To compliment his drone business.

I did like the MMA fighter who was asked about UFC on the lawn, and he's like, I don't really need to go hang out with the Epstein list. Right. Did you see that? Yeah, I saw that. That was good. Speaking of, where is that? Where is it?

And is Galane Maxwell going to get a pardon? I don't think so. No. It's just like a bridge too far. Based on what I understand, I mean, I've spoken to people at the Justice Department over the past year repeatedly about this. And like, based on what I understand, there's no appetite for this. Like, they do not want to pardon her. Now, Trump can do anything he wants at the end of the day.

But I don't think they'll go this far. I mean, it would be a crazy step if they went that far. Maybe on his last day when he pardons everyone who ever worked for him. I need to talk to you a little bit more, though, about the war because it feels to me like they are not even actively looking for off ramps, almost like that they can just close their eyes and it will go away. You know, talking about this, don't rush me. We don't have a timeline. The three-week extension of the Lebanon-Israeli ceasefire, we'll see if that holds or if there's, you know, any violations of it. Pete Higgs says demeanor this morning at the press conference, obviously.

very combative and rude as usual with the press, kind of, you know, proverbially taking a dump on our allies, just calling them free riders. But it was starved for real content. And they are seeing all this reporting that we're seeing as well. Everything from it could take, you know, six months to clear all the mines out of the Strait of Hormuz. That was the Washington Post, this New York Times report on how depleted our stockpile is. And then also some reports. I believe it was from CBS, about how much Iran actually still has. And that feels like the biggest lie that we were fed. I mean, it starts with the total obliteration of Fordo last summer and then moving up to this,

that like, I'm not saying Iran is in good position, but Iran is not sitting there with nothing. Well, I think people forget that Iran's military was easily one of the top 10 strongest militaries in the entire world, right? Like in terms of manpower capabilities. And then the other part of it that people often don't talk about, and I think what Trump really screwed himself over with, is to Iran, this is more than just a kinetic war. This is a religious war in a lot of ways as well.

Religion kind of is dictating. It's existential to their survival. And so at the end of the day, you're not going to get a country that's just going to lay down its arms just because you want to bomb parts of its sights. I mean, these people are literally Iranians are digging up ballistic missile launchers out of the rubble and reusing them and being creative and figuring it out. they still have weaponry. They're still mining the straight of Ormuz. They're still figuring it out.

And at the end of the day, I think Trump at this point, he got to the point where I think he realizes, like, this isn't good for him politically. He doesn't really have an off-ram. So he's just going to extend the ceasefire. And he's just going to extend the ceasefire until they negotiate on some kind of deal, maybe six months from now, maybe a year from now. But it's always going to be these constant, like, oh, we don't know who we're negotiating within Iran. I will say, though, that what's going to be interesting. So Caroline Leavitt, I know a year, You know this. She's pregnant. She's having a baby next week or the week after. Oh, it's that soon? It's very soon. But guess who's taking over for her that we just learned? Don't do it. It's going to be really bad.

President Donald J. Trump. No. Politico is now reporting that the White House will be putting Trump, Vance, and other cabinet secretaries to fill her position. They're going to make me miss her. They're going to make me feel like, where is that? massive cross that she has no problem sporting as she lies to our faces. That's going to be just such a circus. It's going to be so interesting. It's going to be great content, though, and that's all he cares about, you know, number one TV critic.

So I guess I know what the A and B blocks of the five are going to be for the next several months until she comes back for maternity leave. Thoughts and prayers. I know. It's getting so bleak. So on the Trump is not focusing on the thing that we need him to focus on, well, I would say prices and the war. He posted on truth social, embedded in it, was the accusation that Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton committed treason. Yes. Amplifying a claim of a newly, quote, declassified intelligence file that ties them to a 2016 smear campaign. What is going on with that?

And do you think, you know that great meme of Hillary and Obama just laughing? Yes. I feel like they are somewhere, hopefully, having a drink and laughing. Well, first off, Obama has presidential immunity, right? Trump has it. Obama has it. Obama can't be tried for treason, no matter what Donald Trump wants to do. Now, where is this all stemming from?

It's actually a bigger issue that not many people are talking about. In the Southern District of Florida, you know this because the Five likes to talk about it. there is a massive conspiratorial investigation going on. Over 130 subpoenas issued through the prosecutor's office down in South Florida. They actually just brought in Joe DeGenova, former U.S. attorney for D.C., but straight up conspiracy theorist was taken off air because of his conspiracy theories to lead the prosecution of this wide-ranging cabal that were working against Trump. So you have John Brennan, you have all these Obama-era officials,

Biden-era officials, Hillary Clinton, who they're trying to investigate and prosecute. And so that's the backstory here. Now, they're never going to be able to do it. It won't go anywhere. But it's happening. And taxpayer dollars, I would say at this point, probably over a million bucks has been spent on this investigation alone.

That's how big it is. Yeah, there's like, I mean, he'll just never get over it. I saw that he was also posting that the Southern Poverty Law Center indictment means that 2020 was fraudulent to. And that we have to wipe it off. That's what he said. Yeah, which I don't know what that means either. It's just like we didn't have an election or Joe Biden was never president.

No, I mean that and also the whole Southern Poverty Law Center indictment is complete BS. Like you read that indictment and it just, it doesn't make any sense. I know. I've had to argue about it on the five and it's getting, it's getting a little complicated to explain to people that even if all the things in it mean what Todd Blanche thinks that if all the things in the indictment mean what Todd Blanche is trying to. at us to believe that they mean it still doesn't indicate that white supremacy is a hoax. Correct. And it's amazing how quickly we've gotten there. Correct.

I don't know. It's all false flags. Is it all false flags? I mean, welcome to the year of our Lord, 2026. I know. Let's take a quick break. Stay with us. Local news is in decline across Canada.

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Sometimes the very amount you're stuck at the same red light. Rich, creamy, chocolatey arrow truffle. Feel the arrow bubbles melt. It's mind bubbling. Welcome back. I want to talk gerrymandering a little bit. Obviously, it was a big win for Democrats in Virginia. A judge has temporarily blocked it, but it sounds like from listening to the legal analysts,

which you would fall into that category, too, as you do have a law degree that it should still move ahead and Democrats should net for congressional districts from it. What were your big takeaways? is, because I had also like a not so rosy one from it as well based on the actual turnout. Yeah, so that's actually my takeaway on it, too. I actually think that, like, Democrats almost completely fumbled the bag. Like, it was, they were very close to losing. Turnout for Democrats was low.

Turnout for Republicans in rural areas was 2021 level when Glenn Youngkin won. Truly, if the environment, political environment in the country was just a little worse for Democrats, I don't know that they would have won. I don't know. And I think part of it, and I put a lot of blame on, like, Abigail Spanberger. I don't think her team did enough, honestly, here, to make it like what Newsom did in California.

Because I think Newsom did a really good job in California of making this the issue of our time. I don't think Spamberger did that. I think other Virginia legislators, the credit goes to people like Senator Luis Lucas, in my opinion, and Don Scott. Oh, she is such a badass. She's a badass.

But those are the people that I think, like, really push this forward. And I think, honestly, there should be, some alarm bells going off four Dems in a state like Virginia. Remember, this is a state that if you want to win the presidency, the Democrat has to win by double digits. Kamala didn't win it by double digits. He won it by six points. Hillary didn't win it by double digits. Biden did. If you want to get back to winning the presidency, you got to get back to winning Virginia by double digits. And that didn't happen this week. But it is a big win for them. I'm not going to discount that. And ultimately, a win is a win. But there should be some kind of introspective thinking

about it. Yeah, I definitely, I mean, I think that it is important for Democrats to amplify wins when they happen because folks have been so starved for any decent news. And I think it's directly tied to how now for the first time in the second Trump presidency, Democrats are plus four in whose favor to handle the economy. And I think a lot of that comes from actually how loud Democrats have been about what they're doing and the ways of which they're trying to halt the terrible effects of the Trump presidency. Leader Jeffreys, if you're listening, like, I still want my bumper sticker policies that I can, you know, tout and talk about. But you're right. Like when you, you know, want to open the hood or peel the something back. Peel the banana.

Peel the banana. There we go. It's a little redder than you would have thought. And we spent. It's a bad banana. Like Republican. No, I know, I know. Yeah, don't feed it to your daughter. But the environment for the gerrymandering referendum probably still would have favored Glenn Youngkin if we had been doing a redux. And I haven't heard that much discussion of it because people are so, you know, focused on the F-around and find out of it all, which I think is a great line from Hakeem Jeffries. You're totally right about Louise Lucas. I'm usually anti, what is she, 82?

She's, yeah, she's up there, but she's doing great. But right, I'm like, okay, it's definitely on a case-by-case basis because we cannot lose Louise Lucas and big fan of Don Scott, who's just done an incredible job as speaker there and should be a great example to the rest of the country. Okay, so gerrymandering, we feel like a good result, especially that it is only for a temporary amount of time and that it was the will of the people to do it.

Republicans, if you're listening, it is not the same thing as what you did in Texas. Stop saying that. It frustrates me. Are you into the California governor's race at all? Any takeaways from the debate? An absolute nightmare of a race. Of a race. Yeah. I mean, and I've said this from the beginning. Like, we needed a better candidate, right? Like, if Kamala ran, she would have cleared the field. No, she was going to run for president. So kudos to her. You're sure on that? I think so. I would put my money on it. I thought Senator Padilla should have ran for governor of California. He would have kind of cleared the field. But I think at this point, we're now in a situation where it's like you have Steyer, Bacera and Porter, and I don't think anyone else really has a chance. Not Matt Mayhan. No, I mean, like he's at, what, 5%, 6% in the polls? Like, you only have a month left. There was one that came out yesterday with a big boost.

I think he was, according to Calci, he was the main beneficiary of the debate because I think a lot of people just didn't know who he was. And then you listen to him talk about efficiencies and policies that he's implemented in San Jose. And that sounds good. He also landed the best blow on Tom Steyer, that line about the only housing he's built have been ICE detention centers, which is obviously not great in a Democratic primary. But his ties to Silicon Valley, I think ultimately are probably going to be too much for people to get past. I mean, I've interviewed, I interviewed Bacera yesterday. I'm going to interview Porter and Steyer next week and kind of talk to all of them and see where they're at. I mean, at the end of the day, I think there's a lot of excitement in certain circles about Bacera, who's kind of shot up in ways that no one really expected. But he also has his faults.

I think that Steyer, it's interesting, that he spent over $100 million and can't crack 16 percent. right? Like if you're spending that much in a primary, I mean, California is a big state, so I get it, but it should be a little higher. Katie Porter, I don't know what to make of her campaign. I really was never excited about it from the beginning. But we'll see. I mean, I don't know. It's up to California residents. I'm not one. I will be one soon. But for now, I don't have a say. Breaking news, Aaron Parnas is moving to California? I mean, in the next couple years, yeah. Okay. The wife always wins. Right. The way, California is just so, the weather is just so much better. And I'm sick of the D.C. Swamp.

Especially White House Correspondents Week. Should we just jump right there? Because that's where we all want to end up. So it's White House Correspondence dinner this Saturday. And the parties have already started in D.C. Trump is going, which was a surprise to me. And Melania is going as well. The detail that really made me go crazy, though, is how many cabinet members are coming

and that they're getting seated at media companies' tables. So, like, Pete Hague, Seth, and Stephen Miller at the CBS table. Like, I don't know if Barry Weiss requested that or, like, drew the short straw on having to have Stephen Miller. P.R.O is going to be at the Fox table, which will be a hoot. And there are a few more that are going to be there. I think Nikki Minaj and Erica Kirk are also coming. Yeah, they're hosting a party with Fox. Okay.

Well, I'm not going. I have to work. I have to do the five today. So I would miss all the parties, which is, you know, white people want to go. So what do you think of Trump going? What parties are you going to? And then we're going to do a whole separate section on the Grindr Party, which is so good. Yeah.

So, I mean, I will not be attending the dinner out of kind of protest. I had an opportunity. I'm not going to do that because I think that the dinner should celebrate journalism and First Amendment and inviting Stephen Miller and Brendan Carr and Donald Trump and Hegset that is not supporting the First Amendment. So there are hundreds of other journalists that are refusing to go. I'm refusing to go. I'm not going to go to the dinner. But I am going to go to the substack thing. Yeah, I'm going to a substack party to see like some friends and stuff. I'm going to a YouTube party. And then I do love the one part of White House Correspondence Week that I like is like the late

night after parties are always fun. They're like at the Swiss Embassy or at the French Embassy. They're being hosted by like Time Magazine or ones by MS now. So I'm going to go to one or two of those. But otherwise, like, I truly, like, detest White House Correspondence Week because it is peak D.C. And I hate D.C. in terms of, like, the professional ecosystem. I think it's stuffy. I think I don't fit in personally. I don't, I don't ever wear a suit. Like, you're never going to get me in a suit.

Like, it's just not who I am. And so I try to, like, stay away. Yeah. It's interesting. Even for folks who are going, there's a lot of trepidation about it. I think for the reason that you mention, especially having Trump there, and you think about the good work that the White House Correspondents Association is honoring and what they're trying to lift up and how hard this president and his administration have been attacking and trying to tamp down on that kind of good work. I mean, even like directly in lawsuits, like, you know, the Wall Street Journal just won their lawsuit about the birthday book from the Epstein list. So it's complicated.

But what is not complicated is how good the grinder situation is. So they're hosting their own party. It feels like a news story out of the onion. I also want to talk about the onion. There's so much today. They've been upping their political presence since the start of the second Trump administration, perhaps because of its conservative CEO, George Erison, who is supporting Matt Mayhem for the governor's race.

But here's one of their execs, Joe Hack, talking about the event. We represent a community, really, that was born out of the First Amendment, that was born out of free speech, that was born out of the right to associate, the right to pursue happiness, the right to associate with who you want to associate with. And this weekend in Washington is a celebration of that First Amendment. And so that's how we are framing this, is as a toast to the First Amendment as we gather and celebrate with our friends in the media. And we are a community, again, that is very much aligned with that. Anybody from the administration coming? We have had some folks express interest, we'll see, from various levels. We're not disclosing any of the guests, but we will have a lot of reporters here covering the event, so it won't be a secret.

But, yeah, we've had great interest from both sides. Is Lindsay Graham going? Why would you say that, Aaron? I'm just curious. You know, he's still a Disney World by himself. Oh, with his bubble one. I hope a lot of people do go to this from both sides. I just, I don't know, I'm sure there are some dangerous and bad things that go on and Grindr.

Obviously, there are all the jokes that, like, wherever there's a GOP event that Grindr activity, like, shoots through the roof. But I think that at a time where we feel down about the First Amendment, White House Correspondence Center, all of this, the Trump administration, it injects some level of, like, fun and levity. into it? Yeah. I think it's so much fun. Like, who cares? Like, throw a party. Like, celebrate yourselves.

Like, they're not, I mean, like, why not? I personally would rather go to a grinder party than I would, like, a legacy media party. Like, I feel like that just sounds so much more fun. I bring my wife and I bring my daughter. No, I didn't. No, you cannot bring a one-month-old to a grinder-party. I'm saying, like, when she was in life. Yes.

Yes. Obviously, she's not vaccinated yet. Yeah. Well, we got to, yes. But I was not invited. No. And if Grindr wants to invite me, maybe I'll show up. Okay. Grindr, if you're listening, Aaron and Lindsay Graham would like to come.

No, no, no. Just one of us. Okay. Before we go, the last thing sounded like the onion. This is actually the onion. Alex Jones, totally melting down now that the onion has taken over Info Wars and turned it into a parody, with profits going to the victims of Sandy Hook Elementary School shooting lies, those families who were absolutely tortuous.

by that sick man. Let's watch a clip of shirtless Alex Jones responding to the news. You can't take something over and then act like you're somebody even if you say it's a parody. You can do a parody of somebody, but none of you took something from them. We've already checked with lawyers. So they're in deep shit. I've already suing the Democrat Party law firms.

Already got civil rights lawsuits. Do you think, look, just because you're wearing my shirt don't mean you're me. By the way, it's a total failure. It goes, oh, we're the fifth biggest newspapers. That's a lie. Newspapers are all dead. This is what the left do. They try to silence you, then they misrepresent who you are. They're body snatchers.

They're skin walkers. They literally take your skin. This is going to backfire big time, folks. I wish we were seeing less skin. He's so orange. I mean, number one, I feel like we should have like a warning before playing that video. Number two, it's interesting. The video clip is from RT, so it's like Russian State TV.

And then the third thing is like, what? Like, is like, what are we doing? Well, I love how he is the eternal victim after what he did to those families and the Sandy Hook community. It's insane. But totally deserved. Great move by The Onion. I hope that they end up making a lot of money that they give back to that community and, you know, rip Alex Jones on a daily basis and keep his shirt. I think that's it.

We did like 80 topics. It was great to see you. Great to see. That was fun. Yeah. Make sure to subscribe and go by Jessica's. book. I disagree. Oh, right. We have to do the plug. Come on. I know. We'll do the plug. Yeah. I disagree. It's available for presale. A link in the notes. Before we go, my daily reminder

that we're on substack. Subscribers get ad-free episodes, which should be very appealing. And we're all hanging out there, interacting, having all the fun. We have our newsletter, The Monday Rage, which is out. Plus, we're going to be doing a lot of live streams that will only be viewable to our substack subscribers. So get joined up. Find us at at ragingmoderates.profgeymedia.com. That's all for this episode. See you later.