Raging Moderates with Scott Galloway and Jessica Tarlov - Is This a Turning Point for America? (ft. Sarah Longwell)

Episode Date: January 14, 2026

Jessica Tarlov is joined by @thebulwark’s Sarah Longwell to talk through this frantic moment in America. They discuss the battle for the narrative around the killing of Renee Good in Minneapolis, the hypocrisy of the ICE defenders inside the administration, and the potential for this tragedy to galvanize the American public. Plus — Trump’s openly vengeful persecution of Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell, and a new Gallup poll shows some surprising trends in the political identity of voters around the country.  Follow Jessica Tarlov, @JessicaTarlov.  Follow Prof G, @profgalloway. Follow Raging Moderates, @RagingModeratesPod. Subscribe to our YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/@RagingModerates  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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made the switch. So why not you? Try O-D-O-4-3 at O-D-O-O-D-O-com. That's O-D-O-O-O-com. He did rivalries a massive hit. Everyone's talking about the sex, but it's just as much about the exquisite pain of having a crush. And I think yearning can provide this sort of like masochistic joy to. And like, we all need more joy in our lives right now. This week on Explain It me from Vox, love hurts. And it hurts so good. New episodes, Sundays, wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome to Raging Moderates. I'm Jessica Tarlove, and I am very excited to have Sarah Longwell from the Bullwork, the publisher there, host of the Focus Group podcast. I have had a crush on you for a while. I've told Tim about this. I had access to Tim. And now I have access to you, which is

very exciting. Thank you for joining me. I appreciate that, you know why? Because most people come to me and tell me that they have a crush on Tim, which is deeply annoying for me. Oh, you're not into it. Or you're just sick of it now. Like, at first it was cool and now it's like, he's not that great. I mean, like, I get it.

Tim's fine. But, like, I'm standing right here. You know? It is. I get that a lot. People are like, oh, what's it like with if they're conservative? They're like, what's Jesse like? Or what's Greg like?

Or like, what's Scott really like? I'm like, he's fucking telling you what he's really like all the time. Yeah, you see it. He's literally, Tim's never not on camera at this point. So, like, that is the guy. I've known him since we were in our early 20s. He's just always been like that. Only he used to have fake glasses.

Other than that, he's the same. They were fake? Well, so he, before he was out, he and I worked together, like, in a Republican world, and he would wear, like, a suit to make him look like a big boy and fake glasses that were, you know, not prescription. So that he would look like a grown-up because he would look like a grown-up because he would. He actually, you know, he has the physique of like a 12-year-old boy. Which as we age, I'm more and more jealous of that. Oh, yeah.

I'm like, take me back to what I look like before kids. He is handsome. He is very handsome now, which is also annoying for me. Oh, there's a lot going on in that office. He's taller than I thought when I was in your office or met him in person for the first time for CricketCon. And I was like, you are bigger than you look in a box on TV, which I guess is true of all of us. But not me. No, I'm always shorter. Actually, it's being now in public where people walk up to you and they say things like, oh, I thought you'd be taller. And I'm like, me too. I just, I would love that. Yeah, genetics had something to say about it, though. I don't know how about your parents are. But I'm always like, my dad, dead, but he was huge. So.

Yeah, because you're tall. When I met you at Crooked Con, I was impressed by how tall you are. Thank you. Yeah, that's what I aim to do was impress people with my height. Let's talk politics because I want to talk about the tragic shooting of Renee Good in Minneapolis and kind of where we are now. The Fight for Fed Independence, Jerome Powell, leader of the resistance, I guess. And this new interesting polling out of Gallup on party ID, which I was surprised to see that came out yesterday. Let's get into it first with Minneapolis. The shooting's really set off quite the chain reaction, protests in the street all over the country, a legal showdown over congressional oversight, Democrats in blue states moving to rain in what they call an out-of-control enforcement campaign.

After ICE agent Jonathan Ross killed Renee Good, activists began tracking federal operations. Lawmakers were blocked from detention facilities and the Trump administration responded by tightening access and warning the protests could cross into criminal interference. That's their favorite thing to do. What started as a single tragic encounter is now this broader fight about accountability, public trust, and the future of ICE enforcement. what are your kind of top-line thoughts, I guess, about where we are right now in this saga? Yeah, I mean, I kept trying to explain to people because obviously I'm in politics all the time. And so we see lots of things that make us crazy, right? It's a crazy-making time where reality is often denied to us.

And I was trying to explain to them why I felt like this moment was different and so important. And part of it was the combination of having the real-time video and then like sort of either the social media response or the media response broadly that became this Rorschach test for partisanship. And I just, for me, the hard part was watching the government tell a lie in real time while we could all see that the opposite was happening. Like that is a potent sort of thing. Like the, the, Christy Noam coming out saying she was trying to ram him with her car. And then you watch the video and you're like, okay, wait a minute. You could maybe have a debate about the level of inches he was away from the car.

You could talk about whether or not he could have been slightly scared that she was moving her car when he was in front of it. You cannot say she turned her car to ram him with it. Like, everybody can see that that's a lie. And I think, though, the extent to which the vice president, Christy Noam, Trump himself, Trump's like, I can't believe he survived to that. And we're all watching it. And then they're releasing footage. Like, they're releasing footage that they think helps their case because there's a mouthy lesbian, you know, saying, you know, go get your lunch, big boy to them. And they're sort of using that.

They're trying to other the people to make sure you know, this is a Marxist lesbian. And so, like, the toxicity of them lying in the face of exonerating footage to me was some kind of very specific break because it's just so clear. how they are trying to gaslight us. And it's, it unlocks a different level of rage than I feel like the normal lies do. It also is a reminder, like the way that they respond to say, you cannot touch an ICE officer. And now obviously the hypocrisy here is off the charts in terms of the way they're saying, if you lay a hand on law enforcement, like you expect to get shot. And everybody's immediately like, wait a minute, I watched a mob of Trumpers,

attack the Capitol and the, and hit the police with, with flags and with bear spray. and take their guns from them. I mean, I know Michael Fanon very well at this point. Like, they abused these cops and Trump pardoned all of them. So we already know you're lying about this. This is just about whether or not you can execute an appropriate, you want the level of force you want against American citizens. And I just, I do think it's unlocking something slightly different in the public.

It's certainly unlocking something different in me. Yeah. I agree with that. And it makes me think that. back to things that happened in the Biden administration where my colleagues were like, your eyes are open and you can see what we're talking about, like, 250,000 migrants streaming across the border on a monthly basis, right, before we started enforcing the laws on the books. And then the border was essentially closed, which it has continued to be in this amount of time.

And it's been very frustrating for me as someone who tries to learn from mistakes that have been made, that like it's not useful to tell people what they're feeling. And you know this. I mean, you do focus groups all the time. You have a podcast about it. Like people's lived experience is what their lived experiences and it's what they're going to vote on. And if you keep saying like, oh, no, GDP is great or we have the best recovery in the G7. I always say that's a terrible bumper sticker, right? Like no one's winning a campaign on that one. Like they're going to show up and they're going to vote for the other guy. And this has been one of those moments of frustration for me where I'm like, we're watching the same video. And I know that we are seeing the same thing. We think similarly about a whole host of things from like Emily and Paris to what we're seeing right now. And there was a slight difference in, you know, that Officer Ross's handheld video, what he was doing himself, came out. It seemed like in two versions in that Alpha News, which I didn't even know about this outlet, there was one that came out that at the end didn't have the fucking bitch line on it. And then there was the one that had.

had it. And I know it's still unclear if that was Officer Ross who said that or his partner who was also there. But that for me hearing that, that anybody who was on that scene and had just seen a woman get three bullets in her would then say, fucking bitch, was a turning point for me. Where I was like, there is such disdain for Americans, for civilians, for people who are out there using their First Amendment rights. Renee Good, obstructed traffic. I don't really care. Right.

Like this has been the argument now. Well, look what she was doing. Or I saw that part of the FBI inquiry is that they're investigating her ties to activist groups, whereas as far as I know, Officer Ross isn't even on leave. Right. Like, there's no investigation into Officer Ross or maybe that he has PTSD from that event from six months ago where he was dragged by a car and he got a bunch of stitches. Like, they're concerned if she's Antifa or if they can say something about them. And so for me, the turning point, I guess, is in two places. So I think that it's radicalizing for people who have had the experience that we have

where they're watching this video and they're seeing their cities and their country kind of overrun by a masked police force that seems to have complete immunity as far as the government is concerned. Like that was the scariest thing that J.D. Vance said about Officer Ross when he said he has complete immunity. And I was like, I'm already mad enough that the Supreme Court told Donald. Trump that he does, like get out of here with this idea that a police officer isn't responsible for his actions or an ICE officer. They, you know, adhere to the same standard. And then so I think it's radicalizing for people who think like us, but I think it's also radicalizing for normal Americans who are not paying attention to this, but are saying, we elected you to lower our grocery prices. We elected you to care about what school supplies costs, what health care

costs and you're out there doing everything from capturing Maduro to backing an officer that's shooting a woman sitting in her car with her wheels clearly turned to the right to God knows what we're doing with Greenland and to, you know, have huge bashes at Mar-a-Lago where pay-for-play schemes are unfolding all over the place. So I think those two turning points are kind of adding up to what we're seeing in terms of this big backlash against the administration. Yeah, I think that's right. I also. think there's the, because, you know, I have now been doing these focus groups for almost a decade, but at least eight years, really in earnest as I watched the Trump administration unfold.

And it is, people are always like, why isn't this the thing? Why isn't the bottom falling out? Why isn't this enough? And, you know, there's a bunch of reasons for that. There's the hyper-polarization of it all. There's the fact that Trump often moves from one catastrophe to another. And so, like, by the time you're enraged about one catastrophe, like you're on to the next thing, which is what is happening right now. Like we're going from Minneapolis to him threatening the Fed share, Jerome Powell. And it's like, that sustained outrage is really hard. The thing about ICE and what is happening is number one, I do think the, you know, I used to, I was a Republican for a long time. And heard that about you. Yes. All is forgiven, though, Sarah. Yeah. Well, you know, I'm just kidding. I like Normie, Republicans.

Republicans a lot. Yeah, and I was, Tim and I are sort of similar in this regard. We've always kind of described ourselves similarly, which is like kind of Republican squishes. But for me, a lot of my, I was, you know, came from a small town and so I was sort of culturally conservative. But mainly, I just really like America. I think America is the best. Not right now. But generally, I've always been somebody who thinks the experiment that we are doing here is important, should be preserved, promoted, emulated. And right now, Like that conservative instinct of your American birthright is you do not have to get down on your knees for tyrants. Like that is what we do here.

We say no to tyranny. The whole reason we exist is that. Like it's in our, it's in our bloodstreams. It's in our creed. And so I feel like there is an element even of people who are like, well, ISIS is supposed to be getting immigrants out of here. Right? They take their blood and soil nationalism very serious. Seriously, they still are uncomfortable with masked agents.

Like, instinctually, Americans are uncomfortable with masked agents roaming the streets of America, shooting Americans in the face because they are protesting, which is what she was doing. She wasn't meaningfully blocking traffic. And imagine if every time the Libs stopped traffic, which they do all the time in D.C., you know, when the traffic's really bad, like, there's a protest on that bridge somewhere. Cops just started shooting them. Right. What if the cops had opened fire on January 6th and started shooting?

shooting people in the face. Like, this, the only reason they shot Ashley Babbit, like, when you watch the footage, she was trying to break into the congressional chamber with a mob at her back of thousands of people. She was in the front. Like, these are not the same thing. And so anyway, my point is that, but I also think Americans can start to see what is building here, which is Trump is putting together his own personal army and they are trying to

normalize for us, the. idea that we cannot challenge them, that it is not okay to challenge them. And these are the times, I think, look, all of the Trump administration is a, is us making choices about what, what we spend our limited nervous system outrage on. How much of that can we, can we spare? And like, this is one of those times when it overwhelms us. Like, we don't have to choose whether or not we get exercised about this. It's overtaking us because you can see in every second of that video And in the government's reaction, how un-American it all is and how much they are lying to us. And that makes me afraid in ways that I am often more circumspect than some of my colleagues about, like, what our threat level should be.

This is the highest my threat level has ever been watching this. Yeah, it's interesting to kind of watch how you're feeling in contrast to like what the thumbnail says. I don't know if you've ever like, you know, taken a look through the YouTube. pages. Like last week I was with Ben Micellis from the Midas touch. And like those headlines sell, right? Like you get people to click on things and everyone, you know, needs to be part of the algorithm. And it does feel like a moment where real life is matching the thumbnail, almost, you know. And that's scary for me. And the scariest, I guess, extension of that is that this is what the administration wants. Like Stephen Miller has never been happier. Because if we

are in a chaos moment or what you can mark it as a chaos moment, then we can have more troops in the streets. And we can have people watching us when we go to vote in November. And we are going to have less people who probably want to vote in person as a result of this more so than we would usually have. And you're seeing folks, like, I don't know if you saw the protests outside of all of these Somali-owned businesses in, St. Cloud. Like, people are, it feels like there's almost a spirit within them that are like pulling them off of the couch and they're saying, I've got to get out there and I've got to make my presence felt, make my voice heard, just show some line of solidarity with people who hold similar values to me. And having a government where it's so clearly that we don't

understand what's important about America or what America is founded on as this administration. I don't think I've experienced before. Like, I didn't enjoy the Bush administration for sure. I grew up in New York City, very vivid memories of George Bush post 9-11, right, throwing out the pitch, the whole thing. Like, throughout it, I disagreed with, you know, going into Iraq. But I knew that George Bush loved America. Right. And that it was in defense of something that. I could understand as well and had been taught in school was what America was about and learned at home from very liberal parents what America was about. And we're not seeing that at all here. I'm curious to get your take on this before we switch over to talking about Powell. So, you know,

ISIS popularity totally in the toilet, overall approval for immigration, also gone down. That was his best issue that he just completely squandered away seemingly for no reason. What do you make of kind of the conservative move to have a discussion, you know, I think it's really maligning Renee Good's character and who she is. So that's obviously part of it. But, you know, when they say ICE needs to be able to do its job. And I have seen the list of bad hombres that ICE has picked up and gotten out of this country, even in the Minneapolis area, like a guy who's sodomizing kids, you know, people who are raping Americans. Like, I don't want those people here. Like, I don't know. Nobody does. Exactly. And so how do you think that we can thread the needle

better or how is there some way to build a relationship with, I mean, Tom Holman is coming off as the most reasonable one in the bunch compared to Stephen Miller and Christy Noam at this point. And he seems to understand that, like, the worst first is probably the right way to go about this. So, like, how do you think we can approach that and also take that message? I don't know if you listen to Brian O'Hara, the police chief from Minneapolis on the Daily. But, you know, he was talking about how regular cops can't do their jobs because of what ICE is doing. Because ICE actually has a very specific purview, right? Like, they can't actually police traffic, which like what Renee Good was doing.

That was a police infraction, not an ICE infraction. So, you know, like, how can we start talking the same language? I guess about this because I don't like seeing liberals being knee-jerk defensive. Like, ice doesn't belong at all. And, like, I think in this incarnation, it probably doesn't. But, like, we have to get those people out. And when you look like you're on the side of letting a guy go who might have sodomized a few kids because they're doing all this other bad stuff,

I feel like we lose the argument with more conservative-leaning folks. I do think that Democrats understand that the way that Biden handled the border was bad, bad, yeah, did not advance their goals. And here's the thing. And just overall, Americans want to feel safe. Like, it is actually, having listened to Americans for eight years, there's sort of just like three key things they really want. They want to be able to afford stuff. That includes health care, right? They want to feel like they're not underwater or on a treadmill. You know, they want access to good education, affordable health care, like just the things that take care of your basic needs. The next level of that is they want to feel safe, right?

So like when it comes to crime and when it comes to immigration, and part of understanding the immigration story is to understand that the way that Trump has told it is not just about immigration. It is about crime. It is about economic anxiety, right? Like they're bringing, it's about drugs. Like, it's a story wrapped up in a lot of fear that people have. And so when you're, if you're a Democrat, you have got to stop saying that it's all just about being racist, right? You have got to understand, especially if you want a strong social safety net for people, that that costs money that people have to pay into and everybody can't come. Like, there has to be an orderly system.

There has to be a legal system. And Americans are not irrational and rational. racist for wanting to have a workable immigration system. Because the other part of Americans is that they still, with all of Trump's ridiculousness, they still generally think immigration is good and positive. They just want, and this is sort of the moral alibi here in the focus groups all the time, is they say, I want them to come the right way. Now, Americans, because they don't have to go through the immigration system, do not know what that means. They just mean whatever the system is, whatever is legal, where we know who's in our country, come that way. That is a totally wrap.

and reasonable thing to expect. It is a totally rational and reasonable thing to say, the thing that I pay taxes for the most is so my kids get a good education. And so there's a police force that protects me from bad guys that are out there, right? And so they want those things. And Democrats are going to have to start, like, table ante for politics, is I'm going to think about your material well-being. I'm going to think about your safety. And then, like, I'm not going to be so annoying on social issues. Like, that's sort of it. It's those three things. If Democrats could correct those, they would be in a million times better position than they are currently. But they have to start from the proposition that their job as public officials is to keep people safe.

Yeah. Are Democrats asking you for that advice? Because I really hope that they are and that you're giving it to them. Can't tell you the form in which my advice comes exactly. But like, yeah, I mean, I do try. No, I'm just saying it's been heartening to me like the outreach that I get even about. you know, what kind of messaging resonates with more moderate people, right? Like with kind of folks who are watching Fox News versus watching MSNBC and CNN. Because I, you know, I get a ton of data about it. Do poll testing of things that I've said to say, like, this is the right way to formulate this kind of answer, et cetera. And I hope that people are listening to you.

And that's it. That's all you have to say. People are listening to you. Yeah, I also would like, because one of the things people think politics is so complicated. And sometimes I think it's kind of easy, right? It's like people want, can I afford stuff? Because people are not, they're not thinking about Congress. They're not thinking about who the speaker is.

They're not thinking about, like, we can talk about the Fed share, but I will tell you right now, the public is not thinking about the Fed share. That is not, they're not going to get exercised about the Fed share. We are. And there's just, there are some stories that are D.C. stories or whatever. And then there's stories that are stories for the American people. The Renee Good story is a story for the American people. They understand that one.

watch it, they can see it. The Fed Chair one is one that we will talk about and get exercised about and it matters a great deal, but you will not get the American public to be like, my day-to-day life is really impacted by who the Fed shares. They don't know who the Fed chair is and they can't explain to you what the Fed does. I had to Wikipedia at the Fed earlier today and I'm a political expert to be like, let's make sure I understand all of their powers and what they do because I don't off the top of my head. Well, I'm glad that you did your research because we're going to go and talk about the Fed chair now and also that we led with Renee Good. So listeners, stick with us. We're going to do Jerome Powell, but then we're going to come back to something that also matters to you.

So quick break. Stay with us. Hey, it's Olivia from Ollie. Getting better sleep this year is totally doable. But skip the lettuce tea in the mouth tape. These sleep trends are getting unhinged. Ollie's sleep gummies help you fall asleep, stay asleep, and wake up refreshed. Just melatonin, L-thian, and botanical extracts. No weird wet salad aftertaste. sleep can start tonight. Go to OLLLY.com to choose your snooze. These statements have not been

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intended to diagnose, treat, cure, or prevent any disease. Ohly! Hey, it's Olivia from Ollie. I gotta tell you, I saw when you asked AI about probiotics. No judgment. But I think OLLI can help. Probiotics are the good bacteria that support your digestive and immune

system. Just two gummies a day to bring balance to your gut. So, save the AI for drafting that reply to your axe. That's going to take guts. Go to OLLY.com to learn more. These statements have not been evaluated by the Food and Drug Administration. This product is not intended to diagnose, treat, cure, or prevent any disease. Welcome back. Here we are with the D.C. inside baseball story, I guess, the line that maybe can't be uncrossed, I feel like Jerome Powell is going to hang out forever now. Federal prosecutors have opened a criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell officially

over a building project, but Powell says it's about retaliation. And actually, A lot of Republicans are admitting that it's about retaliation. And you don't usually get that. Like they say, I haven't seen what you're talking about. Or they're like, my mom is on the phone. And they were all like, no, this sucks. Or did you see Roger Marshall said, oh, I think it's a troll? I'm like, you're a senator.

You're one of a hundred. And you're saying that this is a troll. Also, as though that's just like a normal way to engage. Well, it is when you have put a toddler in the Oval Office. That is true. As the mother of two of those little beast monkeys. this stakes going far beyond Jerome Powell about whether the Federal Reserve can remain independent, whether monetary policy is now vulnerable to intimidation from the White House. I don't know if you read the Washington Post piece about how all this unfolded, but it seems like Trump is just fully throwing Bondi and Janine Piro under the bus with this one.

And, you know, the imagery of Bill Pulte sitting at Marilago with one of his famous posters, right, with a wanted sign over Jerome Powell's face. And that's how he convinced Trump that this was going to be a good idea. It's so perfectly this administration, right, that they're sitting there and there's like a girl in a huge martini glass and they're having a Gatsby theme party. And Bill Pulte is like, you know what would be a really great idea? And Scott Besson is in the toilet. So he missed that conversation. Scott's going to, I shouldn't say that, Secretary Besson, I don't really know him, is going to punch him in the face for real. Like, it's going to happen now.

I hope so. I'm here for, I'm here for Scott Besson, gay man with rage, who keeps throwing punches. Who lives in a Barbie dream house. Yeah, that's right. Yeah, that's right. And it's kind of perfect that way. Just as a broader context for the Fed, the thing to understand is that Trump is wrecking the economy with his tariffs. And so he is looking for a different lever to improve.

things while his tariffs get to work, right? Like, he knows he's destroying the economy, so he wants to run it hot. And he wants lower interest rates so he can run it hot. So he's trying to bully the Fed into making this decision. And the fact that Jerome Powell is one of the last

just, like, regular, serious people left in Washington. God, I got to say, I don't know, I had been pretty down since the Renee good thing. Like, I'd been just sort of like sitting in my rage watching Jerome Powell in all of his old man's steadiness say and lay it out so clearly.

Yeah, this is pretextual. I went in front of Congress. Like I does, and he's not exercised. He's not foaming at the mouth. He's just laying out the facts. And then he's also doing what I wish a lot of other, I think public officials would do, which is he clearly has called Lisa Murkowski to be like, hey, I testified in front of him. you, you know this, you're a reasonable person. This is what he's doing it. Like, he's called Tom Tillis. He has talked to them and said, you know this is wrong. And he is making them stand up for him. And that is like, I don't know, he's handling Trump and what is happening to him better.

And the other thing is, like, he is fighting in a world in which everybody else is basically given up their institution for Trump's benefit. he is refusing to, he's out in May. He could just wait it out. He could just put his head down and try to do his best. But he is publicly putting his body out in front and saying, I won't let you do this to my institution. And I just, you know, not all heroes work capes. We are often don't get, like, I just, I spent a lot of time thinking about silence and who has been silent in this moment. Like we had an entire generation, you're speaking of George W. Bush of generals.

and of presidents and people in an administration who sent people across the world to die for American democracy, or not American democracy, but to fight to push democracy elsewhere. Yeah. Right. Vladimir Putin has tried to exercise more influence over the American government and over the American public over the last 10 years than George W. Bush has. Right. Like, then those generals, I was at a party and I saw Robert Gates' book, which was called Duty on the Bookshelf. And I thought, is he still alive? Haven't heard from him.

Where are the people who are so sure what their duty is and what? They hide behind? Like, I'm sure it's unusual for the Fed share to make a public statement like that, right? It's not like that's a normal thing, just like it is unusual for presidents and former military officials to get involved in politics after their tenure. But can we all admit that this is not a normal time and that there is a duty right now to speak out? And Jerome Powell just, I just, man, it's late in the game, but thank God. And I don't mean late in the game for him because I think he's always been good. But I mean, it is kind of late to try to inspire courage out of a lot of these other people.

Like, that's not going to happen. But he is doing the right thing in the right way. And I admire it deeply. I do as well. And it's interesting that this is the line for a lot of people. I mean, I think that they understand that the implications for the financial markets are going to be really bad. And so it's kind of like a bottom line instead of the final line. and that's what Scott Bessent was so upset about.

Axios was reporting that. But, you know, we don't know how certain things are going to affect us, right? Like, we have an idea that if we see a woman sitting in a car getting shot by an ice agent, it's going to have X effect on us. But I don't think people necessarily predicted that watching Jerome Powell, coolly and calmly for two minutes straight, direct a camera on a Sunday night, right? It was Sunday night, you know, telling us exactly. what kind of retaliatory action this administration is taking for X, Y, and Z actions that he took, that he believed were going to be the best thing for steering the American economy was going to have, especially on some of these Republicans who have been so weak in the face of gross overreach, to put it politely, on behalf of the president. I don't think Mike Johnson has been on camera about it. But I'm sure even he was rattled by this one.

looking at those statements, I mean, I'm a sucker for a joint statement. So, you know, all the former Fed chairs and Treasury secretaries and just this morning, all of the central bankers also issued a statement saying, you know, we stand in solidarity with Jerome Powell. And he was going to go down in history, kind of just going down in history. I don't think he had a reputation for being particularly amazing, not as a human being, but in terms of his stewardship of the Fed. And Trump is solidifying his. place in this story, right, of the few last good men and women that have any backbone in the face of this aspiring authoritarian that we have down 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. And I think he totally called all those people. And it also made me think about Tom Tillis, who I've been interested in, I guess, I mean, really only for the last year, but starting with the confirmation hearings and just his willingness to speak out. And then, like, how important it is that people actually stay and fight, right? So, like, just don't resign and leave. You got to stay in that role because guess what? Tom Tillis, he might be retiring, but he's still sitting on that banking committee, right? And he's still

the one who gets to decide who the next Fed chair is. And Kevin Hassett, who, you know, loves to give every interview that he possibly can because he know Trump loves nothing more than being able to see you in H.D. might have obsequious himself. I don't know if that's the word, but have kissed ass to the point that he's not going to get to be the next Fed chair because everybody is concerned now that you can't have someone who is so deep in Trump's pocket in that role. And so you should stay and you should fight for those Republicans that are thinking about, you know, dropping out early or kind of checking out and giving an occasional interview and just doing constituent work. Like you matter in all of this.

And I hope that they're taking it to heart. Yeah, I mean, obviously, look, I wish they were doing more. Like, I think Murkowski should threaten to caucus with the Democrats. Like, they have power and they, and like, I am appreciative. I really am because it's better than before. But I sometimes think we get our, like, we are now have such low expectations that they can, like, clear this meager bar. by, say, putting out a statement that says, I don't really like this and I'm not happy about it, right?

Like, no, Lisa Murkowski, God darn it. I'm not sure if I'm allowed to swear. Oh, I think I've done it a few. Yeah, oh, definitely. You do you, girl. Let's go. Like, say you're going to caucus with the Democrats. Tom Tillis, you are on a fixed timeline.

You are out of there. Go say you're going to caucus with the Democrats. Like, I just, and I used to sort of poo-poo talk like this, actually when other people would do it and say, look, guys, you're playing fantasy politics. This isn't something that's going to happen. But I feel less like that now because I feel like it is, it was always obvious to me, but I feel like now it is obvious to everyone what Trump is doing. Yeah. Like, somebody needs to start, and this is was one of my big beefs with Biden,

is you're like, don't keep telling me democracy is at stake if you are not going to act like democracy is at stake. Like when democracy is at stake, if you're democracy. depends on it. You don't renominate an 82-year-old. Like, there is a gap between your actions and what you are saying to us. And I know Lisa Murkowski. Do you know what? I mean, I have been in the, these are my, those were my people for a lot of the Trump administration, right? As the, these moderate Republicans, uh, I have done things that a lot of things in my private like to support them. And I am done with Lisa Murkowski. Like, she has done more. They do more damage now, these moderates in the space. If they don't, because they, it gives their tacit approval. Like, they're the weather, for normies of looking to see what is acceptable. And until they start saying this is absolutely unacceptable and I won't tolerate it, there's a reason the American people look up and say, I don't know, seems kind of like normal stuff to me. And it's because those elites don't react.

Like the Jerome Powell thing matters a great deal. Like I said, again, it's not like this massive public issue, but it matters a great deal to a set of elites that were willing to sort of tolerate Trump destroying the country because it might benefit them. They could be transactional and get something out of it. And now that that's being threatened, that is meaningful, right? So they may react in a way that then the rest of the country looks up at some point and says, oh, people who were kind of cool with this are now ringing alarm bells.

And that's what signals to average people that the vibes are souring on Trump. Interesting. Yeah, I mean, I guess then it does, going back to what I was saying, like, you know, where is your line? It's about your pocket. And I'm talking about the elite pocket. It's not the average American pockets. And I do see what you're seeing on Lisa Murkowski. I'm still – I don't know her personally.

But, you know, like voting to convict after January 6th, things like that that I think were really important. But then voting for the big, beautiful bill. And I get it. You got some kickbacks for your state. Or Cash Patel. Or like to confirm – I thought you were right to say Cash Patel used to be good. And I was like, Sarah.

No, no, no. No. I get it. Voted to confirm. She confirmed. Like, I was like, what's the point of you? What is the point of having those people in there? Well, RFK juniors just the worst.

Yeah. And Bill Cassidy, I can't with that guy. And he's like, as someone who's dedicated my life to, you know, making sure that children are vaccinated, I'm like, are you embarrassed to keep typing this or whoever you are making type this? You're totally right. And I think that this is a bit of the perspective that your cohort, so former Republicans, squishy or not, that have basically, you know, made friends with folks that you grew up thinking not that nice things about because we're all on the same side of having free and fair elections and getting to exercise important constitutional rights and things like that that you see. And you can be a little bit harsher about it because you've been on both sides of it. So I'm very appreciative of that. Yeah, well, I was a John McCain Republican. Like, that's just sort of what I was. I got to say, though, if we're just going to do some appreciations, what you do, people are always like, Sarah, I don't know how you sit and listen to the voters. And I'm like, well, I'm just listening to them. And I'm just gathering information. Like, you have to debate Jesse Waters while he sits there and says things like, you know, just ignore women. They're just there to be pretty. And if you just give them gifts, I mean, I would be across the table with my bare hands. I don't know how you do it. It's interesting that that's what you went to of all the Jesseisms. It's funny, like, outside the bubble what breaks through. People are like, he took the tires out.

of his now wife's car, which is not true. It was a joke that he made, but it's funny. It, like, lives in social media lore. I totally get it. I mean, part of it is also just like I've worked with them for so long and kind of have figured out tools, I guess, to be able to ingest whatever's incoming and then make sure that I'm able to get out what I want to get out, because you have a finite amount of time and you're going to be interrupted, you know, as you're going. But thank you. And it's not, as bad as it might look to you, I don't feel it that way. I don't know if I'm, you know, what's wrong with it. I don't go to therapy.

So I don't know really what's wrong with me. But it's not as bad as it might look. People don't realize, I think, enough how unusual it is to have somebody like you get access to that audience and be able to just sit there and spit facts for a piece of time where they get an alternate perspective. And, like, that is the Lord's work. Like that is so important. And it means you've got to take all of this other stuff in order to be in that position to give the opposing view to people who otherwise would not get it, which just takes a very specific type of person and temperament that I am deeply admiring of. Because part of the problem for the ex-Trump or the ex-Republicans is that Trump has, we feel so betrayed. I think it's easier for Democrats who were like, well, I never really liked Republicans that much or never thought they were correct or whatever.

for those of us who feel so deeply betrayed, like everything we were taught and told was a lie. Like watching Trump right now, like, take stakes in businesses and, like, state control and attack the media and say America's like a third world country. And, I mean, just all of it is anathema. I mean, I hear from liberals all the time who are like, this was always who the party was.

And I'm like, I promise you, it was not. Like, this is not how John McKeever. came talked. It is not how the Bush is talked. I'm not saying that they made every correct policy decision, but they did not hate people. They did not hate this country. They had what was the best in the country in mind and the things that they did. Donald Trump does not. And so anyway, I just, your fortitude is admirable, is my point. Thank you. I'm very appreciative of it. And it's one of the nice things when I do get to go between the two worlds. And that's what has been so fulfilling about being able to have a podcast as well.

that I get to have these kinds of conversations, and then I'm going to go do the five-a-five, and what happens there also directly informs the things that I want to talk about here, because it's those bright, flashing red flags that I get from living in a conservative environment where I'm thinking, like, oh, we're out here having this conversation, but the people who we need to persuade

to actually take that leap to do what you and Tim did, and a lot of people did for Biden 2020, if they didn't for Hillary, like, this is not doing it. It's not satisfying them. Were you on with Jean Piro? Janine? Yeah, yeah. I've been quite close. I mean, I sat next, you know, she was right next to me.

I talk to her all the time. Because if I were, part of what's funny to me is the idea of Jerome Powell, she's like, well, he's not returning my calls. And, like, I just, in my head, I see, like, the phone going off and him seeing Jeanine Piro and just hitting, like, the ignore button. And I'm like, good job. Well, I think what was actually going on, and it's my favorite conspiracy theory about why Powell did this, is he was so upset about Bobby Weir dying because he's a big deadhead. Okay. That he was sitting there, like, listening to Sugar Magnolia thinking like, oh, I'm going to come out and I'm going to fucking do this.

Right. I'm going to do a direct-to-camera. And I know he had been consulting with a very high-powered firm, but, you know, him in like Jean Shorts. Like, but I don't know. The Times piece, by the way, on the evolution. of the gene cutoff and what Bobby Weir's thighs meant was highly recommend it. Okay. Okay, we're going to take a break and then talk about Party ID.

Stay with us. Support for this show comes from Odu. Running a business is hard enough. So why make it harder with a dozen different apps that don't talk to each other? Introducing Odu. It's the only business software you'll ever need. It's an all-in-one fully integrated platform that makes your work. work easier. CRM, accounting, inventory, e-commerce, and more. And the best part, O-DU replaces multiple

expensive platforms for a fraction of the cost. That's why over thousands of businesses have made the switch. So why not you? Try O-D-O-F-Frey at O-D-O-D-O-O-O-O-com. Some of this video coming out of Minneapolis is telling a story about the surge of ICE agents that started last week after Renee Good was killed. Another controversial video has emerged of ICE. It turns out the people being arrested were U.S. citizens. These are observers making sure that kids can walk home from school without being taken apart by the horrible Gestapo that we have here. A group of men approached a woman at a bus stop, pulled her aside, and then walked her into a vehicle.

The polling is also telling a story. Support for ICE is dropping. And more Americans than ever before, 46 percent, told Iq. Economist, UGov pollsters, they want ICE abolished. Meanwhile, the messaging from the White House is that ice has immunity. So what does that mean for the people, some of them citizens, that ICE agents are dragging out of cars and workplaces and off of streets around Minneapolis? That's on Today Explained. We air every weekday.

Is the American dream still possible? And it shouldn't be a wake-up that if you work hard, play by the rules, We're going to make the American dream accessible and affordable to you. You're not going to struggle. You're going to strive to achieve something. For those who think that the system is rigged, breaking news. You're not paranoid. I'm Preet Bharara.

In this week, former Chicago mayor and U.S. ambassador to Japan, Ram Emanuel, joins me to break down the affordability crisis, education, why Trump supporters feel betrayed, and what a Rahm Emanuel presidential campaign might look like. The episode is out now. Search and follow. Stay tuned with Preet, wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome back. So I don't know. It was a big newsday yesterday in general. But you saw this gala party idea thing that came out. I remember when it switched the party ID right around the 2024 election. And it was like leading every show. I was like, can I be sick today? Like I just don't want to go in and talk about how a majority of Americans, you know, now identify with the Republican Party.

Like, we're going to lose. Then we did lose. It continued on into Q1. But there has now been a 13 point swing towards the Democrats. So leading by eight in party identification and also by eight on the generic ballot, which, and it's one survey on the generic ballot. Some of it only has, you know, three or four points. Democrats are up. But either way, we are heading in towards, if all things hold, a very good midterms for Democrats. So what did you take away from the party ID shift? Yeah. Well, there's a couple things in the in the Gallup stuff that was interesting. I mean, the headline is actually that 45% of Americans now identify as independence, which is being driven in large part by young people identifying as independence. And I think that that is, independence always requires some context because I think people are like, see, those are the

the people who are like a pox on both their houses. And I'm like, kind of, because there's two things about independence. One is most of them identify as leaners. Right. Right. So they either lean Republican or they lean Democrat. But part of the other thing, though, is to know that they are not reaching moderates, the independents. I think I have been in a lot of democracy spaces and even political spaces where people are like, see, this is why you need an independent third party. And I'm like, oh, no, guys, those independents do not all look the same. And in fact, one of the whole marks of Trumpism that is going to have influence for many, many years to come in multiple political cycles is that he has taught a lot of his voters to hate the Republican Party.

They are Trump only or Trump first voters, the number of people that he brought into the political sphere that didn't use to vote and didn't use to care. They're just there for Trump. And they see Trump as transcending the political parties. understand the Republican Party is a vehicle for him, but not his party. They see him as, like, they have scorn. When I listen to MAGA voters, they have scorn for the Republican Party. He's a third party. He is the, I mean, he's the right-leaning independent party. Exactly. That's exactly right. And so I just, I thought that the two really interesting takeaways are the fact that, um, you still have a lot of independence and that people should just stop thinking that that means you can run an independent candidate, number one. because a lot of it is like sort of Trump's influence as the party, parties influence, Wayne, and you get these sort of outside figures. Then the other one is how many of those people are young.

And so I do think we have a increase in young people just refusing to identify with either of these parties as they come up. People our age can look back and say, oh, these are, Trump is anathema to the Republican Party. But I listen to 25-year-olds and 30-year-olds all the time. Trump has been the Republican Party for, or at least Trump has been on the political scene for as long as they've been around. He's not anathema to them in politics. He's this thing that has existed. And so they thinks this is what politics is. And the last thing, though, just for the good news, because this is what you really wanted, which is like, yay, people think Democrats are they're coming back to us.

I'm happy to take like a scorned W, basically. Like, as long as you hold your nose and do it to give us some semblance of checks and balances, Like, hate me but vote for me, basically. I do think Democrats are going into a strong midterm for them. Two things on that. One is, though, unlike 2018, which was the first time I ever rooted for Democrats in my life, they won like 40 seats because there were a lot of seats that were up for grabs. There was many fewer competitive seats this time around.

And so like that kind of a pickup. But I do think the Mary Peltola get in Alaska as well as Sherrod Brown. Like you are starting to see a possibility of a Senate map in a way of election where Democrats could get both the Senate and the House because they're going to win the House. It's just a matter of by how much like what is the level of repudiation. But my one caution on this is this is this is the normal ed and flow of politics, right? Party in power. It's annoying. It's not doing things the way everybody wants. And also Democrats now have a structural advantage. We're an off-year elections.

More of their people turn out than a lot of these low propensity voters who turn out in voting. for Trump. So we're dealing with all those realities. Those are good for Democrats. That is not enough to save America. Saving America is a root and branch operation for this version of the Republican Party. And so for any Democrat who soothes themselves entirely by what is happening in 26, I would just like you to say, continue to gird your loins for a long-term fight. This is a generational challenge and just one election won't be enough. Like it is, it is necessary. It is necessary to stop the bleeding, but it is insufficient for the long-term project of beating back the toxic forces that Donald Trump has unleashed on America. And that will require real changes from the

Democratic Party, real thoughtfulness about the kinds of candidates they nominate, what a big tent looks like, what their purity tests are going to be, what issues they need. to do to meet average Americans like I was talking about with immigration and having to sort of moderate there on some of these issues and on some of the social issues. What I don't want is for anybody to think, yeah, we're going to crush in 26 and like that that's enough because it's not. No, definitely not. And you're totally right about the map. It's been an interesting, I guess, marriage between two opinions, though, on Chuck Schumer that I hold dear. So not enjoying Chuck Schumer is one of them, right? And thinking that we need new leadership.

on the Senate level. And then also that Chuck Schumer has been very effective in recruiting the candidates that he has wanted and who I think actually stand the best chance to win some of these tough Senate races. So getting Roy Cooper in North Carolina, Sherrod Brown to come back in Ohio. Mary Potola in Alaska was a Chuck Schumer project.

We still don't know what's going to happen in Texas. Not that I really think we're going to win Texas, but like Iowa will be interesting. Anyway, I'm holding those two kind of separate ideas in my head at once. And, you know, the scale of the win for the House will be very telling as well. I think Hakeem Jeffrey's, you know, big win, obviously getting the Obamacare subsidies pass through the House and getting so many Republicans to come over and vote for that. I don't know what happens in the Senate. And Trump is saying that he may veto it anyway.

I can't even like, it's so illogical to me when someone's like, here is a big. win on a platter. Like, why don't you just sign it? And you can say, I'm listening to the people at worst. Like, he's the guy who is like, we have to protect Medicare and Medicaid and Social Security. Like, he is the right-leaning independent party. So I don't really understand any of that. But, you know, Hakeem Jeffries has seen how hard it is to function with a slim majority, right? Like watching Mike Johnson, you know, calling people, I heard, you know, you're at urgent care and you got to get back here. because if, you know, if one person has RSV or COVID, RSV is only for kids, I have two little kids.

You have kids. You know the RSV circuit. Anyway, you know, he can't afford for someone to even have the flu at this point. And that will be very tough for Hocking Jeffries if the ratio is that small. And there's still going to be more gerrymandering news to come in all of this. But I was hopeful to see people at least flirting with Democratic ID, again because I think that the brand was so severely hurt during the Biden years. And Bernie Sanders was always smart, you know, to be an independent of caucuses with Democrats because he could run

against everybody, right? He could run against the machine and he could run against the Republican party. And a lot of people who I think are very good Democratic representatives are having to figure out how they can do that too, right? Like how someone who has been in Congress or in Senate or just working in party politics for so long can battle both of those things because the establishment has to be taken down for your gird your loins. That's about blowing up our side as well, but then also coming out of it fully intact and able to govern. And it's asking a lot of people. Yeah, I don't know. This is where I think what Chuck Schumer should do is preside over an orderly transition that helps. I mean, this is what Nancy Pelosi did. And this is what Joe

Biden would have done had he been not a narcissist. Like, there would have been this- Coulda-shoulda-shoulda. I know. But, like, you know, but Chuck Schumer has the opportunity to say, you know what, the gerontocracy is real. In fact, we should probably look at how old our Congress people are because this is what Mike Johnson is also up against is people are dying.

Yes. They die while they're in Congress and then you lose, you know, your majority. Like, they need younger people and they need to turn over. the leadership to people who understand the threat that Trump poses. Because part of the problem with Schumer and a lot of these guys is just they're used to working with Republicans. Like they're from an old time. They're not wartime generals, right?

And so they're establishment guys. They raise money. They go through all the steps the same way. And like you're going to need people who are ready to do things differently. But he can be a facilitator of that. Find the right person. Make sure it's not a crazy person that's just operating on everyone's angry id and get somebody really good is a good fundraiser.

instead of holding onto it longer than he needs to. So that's a question of whether or not he thinks democracy's at stake and he can do something to be helpful. It does feel like we've just been saying it for so long that it feels like a regular slogan. Like we're like, protect health care, democracy is at stake. But also when you do retire, all you've got then is your legacy. And a lot of people's legacies are being rewritten in the negative direction. And I would not want that at all. Sarah Longwell, this was such a pleasure. Thank you for joining me.

So fun. Thanks for having me. Yeah, anytime. You bet. Support for this show comes from Odu. Running a business is hard enough. So why make it harder with a dozen different apps that don't talk to each other? Introducing Odu. It's the only business software you'll ever need. It's an all-in-one fully integrated platform that makes your work easier, CRM, accounting, inventory, e-commerce, and more. And the best part, O-DU replaces multiple expensive platforms for a fraction of the cost. That's why over thousands of businesses have made the switch. So why not you?

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