Raging Moderates with Scott Galloway and Jessica Tarlov - Trump Family Corruption, Making Tax Policy Fair, and 2026 Predictions

Episode Date: December 19, 2025

To wrap up a wild 2025, Scott Galloway and Jessica Tarlov turn the mic over to you. In our year-end episode, they dig into listener questions from El Paso to Rio — everything from whether life’s really about competition or cooperation, to how friendships survive political divide, to America’s tolerance for Trump-era grift. They settle a debate over “fiscally conservative, socially progressive,” tackle taxes, and hear from a listener navigating a gender transition and looking for support. Then, to close out the year, Scott and Jess go on the record with their bold predictions for 2026. Follow Jessica Tarlov, @JessicaTarlov.  Follow Prof G, @profgalloway. Follow Raging Moderates, @RagingModeratesPod. Subscribe to our YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/@RagingModerates  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Ready to think outside rows and columns, start building faster at MongoDB.com slash build. Welcome to Raging Moderates. I'm Sky Galloway. And I'm Jessica Tarlov. Just what a year, 2025. There's been plenty for us to rage about. and we're very grateful for our listeners for sticking with us. This has been rewarding both psychologically and professionally.

We've really enjoyed this. I feel like we're the well-lit, less toxic corner of politics right now, or maybe I'm just eluding us. I think that that's true. I hear that, like, that people also don't want to just listen to like 45 minutes to an hour of pure Trump rage. And we do make an effort to talk about other stories. Those are my favorite stories, actually, when we talk. talk about things like young people renting forever and like what that means and dating in

relationships and like that kind of stuff. So it's been great. I don't know. I'm thinking the new editorial direction is we bring on Scott Bassent to say incendiary stupid fucking head-up-your-ass statements. Like I'm a soybean farmer? Oh, no, not Scott Besant. Who's the guy who's who basically Abby Phillips is going to make the next U.S. Senator from Kentucky? What's his name? Oh, Scott Jennings. I did a panel with him. I'm sure he's a very reasonable guy. I mean, yeah. My guess is, in front of the cameras, he says stupid vile shit to evoke a reaction and tickle the censors for the far right.

And then we should bring in a bunch of de-list liberals to get outraged and clutch their Birkenstocks, and then they can have a fucking food fight. I think we should offline the discussion about 2026 because that plan sounds hideous to me. Yeah, yeah. No, I'm being cynical and angry. I just want to hang with you and talk about politics. Go on. That's right.

It's fun. We haven't a chance to hang out much. You're just always so busy with your children. I literally beg you to text me back and like you're in town and you're like, oh, do you want me to drop you off? I'm going to go to Shammargo. And I'm like, okay, I'll go home to my kids. Yeah, no. You have a much cooler life than I do. But when I'm a little bit older, I have confidence that I will have a cool life, but I have little people. Yeah, you're a celebrity. I can't. See, I don't want to go out with you socially because I couldn't stand. That's why I don't go out with Ed Elson. I can't handle people coming up to me. Oh, Ed, Ed, we love you. I don't know because I don't go out with them. I generally speaking don't like to socialize with the people I work with because they have this image of me being impressive and having my act together and I get around a few drinks and it all it all busts loose. It all falls apart, Jess.

They just don't, people don't need to see that. Unless you're a close friend of mine and we listen to Led Zeppelin and smoke too much pot in my sophomore year in the fraternity, nobody needs to see that side of the dog. No one needs to see me, you know, urinating all over the house. No, I definitely don't want to see that. But I wouldn't be mad at like a joint and some music if you want to hang sometime. If you're feeling really low, I'm your girl. We're making real progress here. I like this. This is good. So this is supposed to be our predictions, not couples therapy. So I'll get back to the script here. We thought it might be fun in our final episode of the year to answer some of your questions, your meaning the listeners, and to hear from you. Over the past few weeks, we've been asking our audience to send us questions. in a short voice memo, and we got a ton of submissions. So thank you. I have not seen these questions or heard them. So forgive me if my, this is like office hours. By the way, Jess, I don't know if you've ever listened to Office Hours. You may not even know this, but I have other podcasts.

That's so weird. You do? I thought that I was your one and only. That's it. And that Kara called me your sidepiece for no reason at all. You found out. Yeah. No, cat's out of the bad. I'm in a podcast polyamorous relationship. So I'm pod-polly. Oh, I like that. Pod-Polly. Poly-Pod. Yeah, PolyPod. Like Polly Pocket, but for podcasts. But one of my other podcasts is this thing called Office Hours, and I used to watch Frasier with my mother. And did you ever watch Frasier? Yeah. Office Hours is based on Frazier's call-in program. I love the idea of a call-in program. And so we're borrowing from Office Hours today, and we're doing a call-in. So, Jess, are you ready to hear some listeners' questions?

Yeah, I'm excited. First up is Daniel from El Paso. All right, roll tape. Hey, Scott and Jessica. This is Daniel Estrada from El Paso, Texas. My question is for Scott, and it's about a fundamental tension in his political philosophy. Is life ultimately about competition or cooperation? Scott, you support many of the policies that today's social Democrats propose,

things like universal health care or robust wealth redistribution. So, Scott, I want to ask, will you say if life should be all about competition? or cooperation? Wow, that's really thoughtful. So I think it's a mix of both, and I think that our species excels because it creates an environment for both and then figures out the vent overlap,

and you don't want it to go too much to one side of the other. So just loosely speaking, competition works when everyone agrees to fair rules. So even in competition, I like the full body contact violence of corporate America, I don't think, I think we should let Delta Airlines go out of fucking business during COVID, not bail it out after the CEOs have taken $150 million in

compensation. I like that they hate each other and they're trying to come up with a better widget at a lower price. I like that we compete against each other for slots at a university and that it encourages incentives and excellence for better outcomes. At the same time, it can go too far, and that is there are some people who can't effectively compete in a society that are either disabled or are unlucky or raised in a household without a great deal of parental involvement, and I believe we cooperate to lift those people up. And competition with rules is a form of competition and cooperation. We encourage competition when it leads to innovation, creativity,

entrepreneurship in sports, huge competition, consumer markets. But at the same time, we come together and take the profits of competition that we then tax fairly,

which we are not doing right now, and then we come together to cooperate around infrastructure. Let's all agree that highways and a high-speed rail would be a good idea. Let's all agree that we should have one Navy

to defend our borders. Let's all agree that our national parks are a treasure. We all agree that it probably makes sense to do research or used to agree on vaccinations for measles. They require shared commitment more than rivalry. So there is an overlap. The problem is that sometimes these things go too far to one extreme or not far enough. So if you just let competition rule the day, you end up such that losing is catastrophic for some people.

We need to break up monopolies, so competition stays real and that it's actual competition. We need to teach teamwork. We value both ambition and solidarity. So just to summarize, I do think competition produces progress, but cooperation produces stability. And a society that emphasizes only one either becomes chaotic or stagnant. So I would argue that the U.S. has become chaos. A reductive way of looking at this is we become too focused on cronyism, massed as competition in the U.S., and we have chaos. Whereas in Europe, there's so much virtue signaling and distributed power that serves as veto power that you end up with stagnation.

And the healthiest societies deliberately engineer a dynamic balance, and they shift that balance depending on the domain and the period, whether in war, economic growth. etc. A word salad for saying that one of the reasons democracies have done so well is that we do a very good job of balancing the two. And I do think that the two peacefully coexist. Whew, thank you for the TED Talk. Jess, do you want to add to that? Strong floor, no ceiling, right? I think that it applies to this. And I don't think that they're contradictory. I mean, you tell a lot of stories from the business world about where cooperation and also kindness and humanity are what, like, got a deal done or got you to the right decision. So, yeah, I think that they work in concert. I think also people are swayed by their

vibes in terms of how they're talking about certain things. So there are days when you sound more cooperative, and there are days when you sound more competitive, I guess. But I'm in agreement. They have to work together. It's the only way you can have a civilized society. Agreed. A capitalist civilized society. All right. Next question. Here's one from Will in San Francisco.

Mm-hmm. This question's for Jess. Do you talk to the five colleagues as friends when the show's over, or do they genuinely dislike you for your politics? So this question makes me really sad because it feels as if, A, people watch a show and think that I work in, like, an insanely hostile environment. or no one would want to be my pal, or that I wouldn't want to be their pals. And two, that maybe they don't have kind of politically adversarial friendships or relationships in their lives that can also be fruitful friendships, which is what we do have. So I talk to my five colleagues outside of work and outside of politics all the time.

Like, Greg Godfeld has a baby who just turned one. If he has a medical question about his kid, can't get to the pediatrician. Like, I am the first call, right? That's like, what's going on? You know, she had croup before my baby had croup, those kinds of things. Dana Perino, who is softer, obviously, than the rest of them. I talk all the time about everything from like, we both love, you know, Emily and Paris and junk TV to what are you wearing today, to going to the theater. visiting her down the Jersey shore. So, yeah, everyone is actually friends. And I think that you have

different kinds of friendships, obviously, for people that you're connected to through work versus the friends that you might meet in college or, you know, out in the world, your soul cycle pals or whatever it is that you're doing. But we do have genuine relationships. And I think that when you only consume clips of the show, which is how most people at least take me in, that they don't see the entirety of the dynamic. Now, I'm not trying to minimize the fact that there are times where it looks totally awful and can even feel awful to me. Jesse Waters and I definitely get into things where I'll say even on air, like you're being such an incredible jerk. And that's very real and genuine. But I think it is important for the sake of your workplace, but also in terms of modeling proper civic behavior

to be able to get past these things. And I write about this a lot in my my book, which will be out in September. And I think that you need to be able to argue really hard and then also play important and positive roles in each other's lives. And I think that's very much the case for us there. I think you can sense it. Whenever I've watched the show, you disagree with each other, but I don't think it's ever really malicious. And what I will say, I've probably been on Fox 100 or 150 times. I'm not exaggerating. I went on every week for several years. Yeah. And I generally found, even more so at Fox than the other networks, the people there couldn't be more lovely. Yeah. And also, I don't want to say I'm very conflicted about Fox,

and I stopped going on when they have this multi-pronged attack across the Post, the Wall Street Journal, and Fox against Kare Swisher that I thought was just straight up homophobic, full stop. and they kept describing her as lesbian tech journalist, Keras Wisher. Anyways, whether Fox in some of their editorial choices are good or bad for America is one choice, but I'm a big believer in separating the politics from the person. And if you decide that someone's political views are kind of, and I used to be this way, I had trouble when we moved to Florida, I hang out or know a lot of Trumpers, and I just had trouble being around these people.

And I decided, I'm going to separate the politics from the person. Otherwise, you just ride off half of America or 47.8, whatever he got. And I think there's good arguments both ways, but I can sense with you guys that it feels like all five of you have genuine affection for each other. And I think as a general rule, you're just much happier not letting politics get in the way of the person. And one of the things I just breaks my heart about young people not meeting and mating and procreating is politics now has become another. reason that people don't want to interact with each other. Totally. I mean, listing, like, no Trumpers apply in your dating profile and things like that. Like, I get it. I doubt that I could be married to a vehement Trump supporter, but it pretends for some extreme loneliness to be heading people's

way and just being turned off or separating yourself from the chance at having experiences that may be uncomfortable for you, but I still think our important. Like, I feel like a more complete person because of where I work and the kind of people that I interact with and the things that I say. And also, I would add, like, if you're friends, then people actually listen to what you're saying more than if you're just in an adversarial crouch all the time. So I'm not saying I've, you know, flipped a million votes or anything like that. But by being part of the furniture and having genuine friendships, I think people are more open to my content. All right. I got it. Cool. I'll keep my job.

There you go. We're in. Next question. All right. Greetings from Rio de Janeiro Brazil. My question is simply, can you explain to me how the American public compartmentalize the level of corruption and grift that is on the open display by the Trump family? How do Americans square off the level of grift that is happening? Can you please explain? Big hugs, chow-chow. Big hugs, chow. Do you want to start here, Jess? I mean, I'll just, I think about what my dad said after the 2016 election a lot, because I was devastated and, you know, I love Hillary and blah, blah, blah.

And he said, this is what we deserve. And I was like, we don't deserve this. And he said, no, as a country, this is what we deserve. You know, it was height of Kardashian madness, and he said that we elect leaders that are reflective of where we are as a nation or a city, state, whatever it is, at that particular moment. And we are people right now that listen to the Access Hollywood tape and say, like, actually, I would prefer that to the woman who, you know, had hot sauce in her bag and that offended me and didn't go to Wisconsin. And the pendulum will swing back, and it did. But that, you know, sometimes you've got to take the proverbial hit and it has to stir and wake up a society. And I think about that a lot when I'm feeling overwhelmed by the grift and the corruption and all of that. I also just think our politics are so polarized. And now, I don't know if you've noticed this, but the right just says, I don't care anymore. Like you'll make an argument that you think should hold water with them. And they'll say, but Joe Biden led in 250,000 migrants per month for the first three years that he was in office. So you did this. This is your fault. Well, just cleaning up your mess. And people put on their partisan blinders and move on. So that's my take. How do you think that we stomach this? So his question, how do we stomach this and how do we

circle the square? And the answer is, I have no fucking idea. I am, I'm absolutely flummoxed and shocked that we decided it was okay that while we're obsessing over Hunter Biden's laptop and the fact that he went on the board of a company because of daddy's connections. And let's be honest, it was because of daddy's connections. That is a dumpster fire compared to the nuclear mushroom cloud of launching a cryptocurrency the Friday before your inauguration that anyone could put money into in exchange for favors, that we have taken the pardon and clemency process and monetized it, including direct links to people giving millions of dollars directly to Trump And then, what do you know, that person's son is pardoned after defrauding seniors?

So what do you know, Wittkoff's kids and the Trump kids get a several hundred million dollar commitment to their shit coin? And then two weeks later, we decide that our most sophisticated chips that could end up in the hands of the Chinese or the Russians are clear for export to the UAE. The level of corruption here is staggering. And the fact that big tech now shows up and the only instructions they have is don't forget to swallow and give the president such faulty and just gross obsequiousness in exchange for basically no regulation, a transfer of wealth from the S&P 490 to the top 10. And anyways, I'm basically talking this guy's book. The only thing I will say, it's a nod to the other side of this, is that the Democrats engaged in corruption, but it was small ball. Speaker Pelosi is leaving Congress with $450 million in personal wealth.

The S&P in the last 10 years is up 200%. Buffett at Berkshire Hathaway, arguably the greatest investor of all times, up 300%. The Pelosi portfolio is up 600%. So there was kind of small ball corruption all over Washington, and then Trump came in and said, I know, rather than just running a stop sign, let's mow over a family of 12, because corruption is obviously okay here. And I think what America has decided is that, in a weird way, if you're corrupt, as long as you have your chest puffed out and say, oh, fuck you or whatever, that somehow that that's some perverted form of masculinity. I believe there should be a reckoning. And I think the Democrats, as usual, reach down and can't feel anything called testicles. I think they should be talking about statute of limitations and how it does not run out and how the clemency and pardon process should be severely reviewed. And that to the letter of the law, we need to hold people accountable for theft, for fraud, for, I won't call them war crimes with extrajudicial killings or murders, regardless of how long they served in office. I think there needs to be a reckoning here.

And Brazil, which has a much stronger democracy right now than the United States, when they plan their own insurrection, the leader there was shamed and had to basically flee the country. Which made Trump very mad. Yeah. So I don't, I'm hopeful. There's no denying that we have gone zero to 60 in corruption. I won't say zero to 60. We were already at five miles or 10 miles an hour of corruption. And then he just broke the sound barrier. He just said, well, clearly. America is willing to accept this, and I'll just be loud and proud about it, which will come across his strength. I am shocked that his own base isn't more turned off by it, and I am disappointed that progressives haven't been more aggressive around what should, and hopefully will be a reckoning around what is clearly, in my view, criminal behavior. And I'm not suggesting retribution, political retribution, I'm suggesting that we uphold the law. But brother, I'm with you. I don't

get it. I am shocked by it. And it creates a downward spiral because at some point everybody throws in the tile and says, fuck it, I'm just going to trade stocks based on the armed services hearing where I know we're about to give a contract to Palantir. So I'm going to go out and buy Palantir stock before the news is released, Marjorie Taylor Green. I am going to overrun Washington with money to either get my son pardoned or to get a contract that a better medium or small-sized firm should have received with a better offer with a better product at a lower price. So I'm not here with a message of hope, and I agree with you. I'm shocked and surprised that the American public has not had a gag reflex on this toxic, weird

razors of corruption we have to swallow every day. Okay, swallowing razor blades. That was pleasant. Yeah, uplifting. Next one. This is a good one from Amy H. Can you please settle a debate? My husband says that he is fiscally conservative and yet socially progressive.

I tell him that's a contradiction. We are big fans. I think it depends, like, how fiscally conservative he is. So if you're talking about, like, a couple percentage points off, like, the corporate tax rate, right? Or even the individual tax rate, you know, I could kind of understand how that works. But if you're getting into a world of, like, I want to cut massive social programs, like no one should get their snap benefits, for instance, or that you're going to go door to door trying to means test all of these things. I'm not talking about social security. I know Scott is into means testing, social security.

But I think that there's a very big difference, like the Delta, in what would be fiscally conservative or what maybe he thinks fiscally conservative is. Also curious what socially liberal means to him. So I think, you know, most people now are like, oh, I'm socially liberal. Of course I support gay rights, gay marriage, trans rights, whatever it is. But then kind of if you dig in about how they feel about social programs, then it gets a little if here. So I need more specific. specifics on it. But I do think that those people exist. They're kind of like old school Republicans. I feel like at this point, like a lot of the Republicans who switched over to vote for Biden and then Kamala Harris in 2024. Scott, what do you think? Yeah, it's lazy thinking. People often say that, that I'm socially liberal and fiscally conservative. And quite frankly, it just means they're lazy thinkers. And they want it both ways. I understand it. I think I used to say it, but it is lazy thinking because if you're fiscally conservative, you believe in small, inexpensive, minimally redistributive tax policy with minimal intervention from the government. And the reality is it's difficult to adopt those policies and pay for

anti-poverty programs, public education equality, housing support, reproductive rights, affordable health care. All of these things take a lot of money, which is directly contradictory to the notion of a minimally taxed, very conservative economic policy. It just, the two don't jive, quite frankly. Now, what I think you can say is that I am socially liberal and believe in fiscal responsibility. And that is, I want my social programs, means tested, I want them to be efficient. You know, I think that redistribution of income is fine as long as the incentives are in place. And in my view, there's no reason the wealthiest generation in history, seniors in America should be taking $1.2 trillion from people under the age of 65. That doesn't mean they should be in poverty.

If they need it, they should get it. But you are going to need a redistribution of income, which will imply a more progressive tax structure. And I won't go into tax policy right now. But it is lazy thinking to believe that. What's interesting is that the majority of America or a big talking point was, I'm going to be socially liberal and fiscally conservative. And Trump, the genius of Trump is that he said, no, you have it wrong. And markets, basically, when everyone's zinging, you want to zag. That's the opportunity. And what Trump did was he zagged. And he said, no, no, no, no. I'm going to be socially conservative and fiscally liberal. And he has two trillion dollar deficits. Give money away to almost everybody with connections. You know, everyone gets a participation trophy,

especially the rich, but I'm going to be socially very conservative. And America really, quite frankly, it was sort of a brilliant positioning. But the two are somewhat contradictory. And If you're going to be intellectually honest, you're going to have hard conversations around which programs we're going to cut such that we can support a fiscally conservative viewpoint. I think that you could also just be like a responsible Doge person, like how they did Doge in the 1990s. I think that is an option for fiscally conservative because we do waste so much money on just bloat, like to actually do the Pentagon audit and see what you get as a result. But anyway. Okay, let's take a quick break. Stay with us.

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New subscribers only varies by plan. That's hellofresh.com slash moderates 10 FM to get 10 free meals plus free breakfast for life. 2025 was a wild year for the tech industry. AI seemed like it took over everyone's brains. It was the only thing anyone wanted to talk. about. Invidia became the most valuable company in the world. We had some huge new video games. The Switch 2 launched a lot of people got it. There was just a lot going on. And on the Vergecast, we are talking about the best, the worst, the most important, the biggest heel turns, all the stuff that

happened in 2025 and making maybe a few predictions about what's going to happen next year. All that and more on the Vergecast, wherever you get podcasts. This series is presented by Jira by Ed Lasian. Right now is the AI Gold Rush. And that means everybody who builds an app, a platform, a piece of software, a gizmo, that's somebody, anything. Everybody is trying to put AI everywhere. And for two weeks in a series on the Vergecast, we are talking through what that looks like. We're talking to developers about what they're building and how they're building it.

And whether AI actually does make sense everywhere. or is just going to ruin everything in the process. That's the AI miniseries on the Vergecast wherever you get podcasts. This series is presented by MongoDB. Welcome back. Next question. A question from Tanner G. Hi, Scott and Jessica.

With all the discussions around affordability, I'm surprised no one talks more about eliminating sales taxes. Because sales taxes hit lower and middle income Americans the hardest, Why not remove them entirely and replace the revenue with a small increase in state or federal income taxes instead? You want to go first? I love tax policy. Consumption taxes are... I don't know. What a weirdo, right?

Look, consumption taxes are especially hard on the lower and the middle class because they spend a disproportionate amount of their money on consumption, right? They have to spend 95 to 120 percent of their income on consumption. So these are somewhat regressive taxes. Having said that, these states have to pay for the fire department and for social services, et cetera. So I don't, it's like pick your poison. Where are we going to raise taxes? You're saying an increase in federal income. Again, I'm going to talk my book here.

I think that we get messed up around tax rates and don't think enough about tax code. The key to solving our tax deficit, if you will, is a few things, but specifically an alternative minimum tax corporations and the super wealthy of 30 to 50 percent, similar to when Reagan was president, stop neutering the IRS, $750 billion a year, uncollected, the tax gap, and then basically eliminating or lowering the exemption on the inheritance tax from $30 million to $1 million, because no one's going to be worse off if Bobby and Cindy get $7 million instead of $11 million, and there's going to be so much money transferred that, quite frankly, should just go back into a system that values meritocracy over some sort of dynastic wealth.

But it's a state-by-state thing. And the sales tax, if you will, to a certain extent, I think the market determines what it is. There's some states that don't have a sales tax. Some states have a very high sales tax. And I like that the states compete with each other. And at some point, people decide to leave from California and move to Austin and then realize they don't like it and move back and that it was worth it. What are your thoughts on sales tax, Jess? I was nervous about the funding for public goods that would come as a result of this. But I like the idea of targeted sales tax holidays, like around something like school supplies that you know are going to hit lower and middle income families the hardest. And I think that emphasis also on tax credits that can be used by lower and middle class families, like with kids, for instance. I mean, that's the number one way that we got, would we get like 50% of kids out of poverty with the child tax credit? So I think that you could do that. I think the country would have a hard time, and I know it's state-by-state basis, but everybody feels like their taxes are too high.

The richest people feel that, but it's not true. But everybody else, kind of even that weird, like, you're rich, but you don't feel rich that we were talking about with the new poverty line and kind of what the middle class is here. So I think doing it in a targeted way that showed that you're thinking about people in the lower and middle income bracket. especially those with kids would be very useful, but I like the discussion. I think that it's a smart one, but we have to make sure that everything is still funded. And I don't know what the appetite is to raise taxes on the federal level to compensate. I love this conversation. And I'll go out on a limb here, Jess. I don't know that much about you and your husband, but my guess is you're, you paid too much in taxes. I do. I want to talk to you about it because I allegedly have a good

accountant, but I still think it's bad. Well, here's the bottom line. If you live in New York or California or a blue city, which you do to make an extraordinary living in current income, no one feels sorry for you, but say you make a million or a million and a half bucks, you know, dad's a chiropractor, mom's a baller, partner to law firm, you're probably paying 50, 52% tax rate. And so discussion around increasing taxes goes nowhere because the workhorses say, fuck that, buddy, I'm literally working for the government right now. And that's true. The problem is once you get to the 99.9, the tax rate plummets to the high teens, and people figure out a way to move to California, in Texas, and capital gains for some reason

is 23 versus 37 for people who actually work with their sweat. In my view, there's a ton of things we could do around tax policy. One of my favorites is I think we should have a tax holiday for people under the age of 30 who are really struggling to save for a home, who are more anxious and obese, not because they don't have a fucking therapist or a bunch of, you know, TikTok therapists who haven't practiced who own a ring light. It's not, we don't suffer from an absence of therapy. We suffer from too much economic precarity among young people. And the way, one of the ways we could address that is no taxes for people under the age of 30. And we wouldn't lose that much from the treasury because the reality is people under the age of 30 don't make that much

money. But that incremental 10 or 20 or 30 percent in their pocketbooks would go a long way. giving them the money to think about a house, a family, going out, getting a little bit fucked up, and approaching a stranger and making a series of bad decisions as a result. That lead to a good decision. That lead to a good decision. Anyways, but I absolutely will come back and we'll do a full thing on tax policy, but I absolutely love the shit. Thanks for the question. Next question.

Scott from Pittsburgh has a bone to pick. Hey, Scott and Jess. This is Scott from Pittsburgh. I want to push back on the idea that Gavin Newsom is somehow the frontrunner for the nomination. he hasn't run a competitive election since 2002, and I just don't think he has a shot at ever convincing the Midwest that he's the right candidate.

Jess. So I think there's a difference between who's the frontrunner right now and who's the frontrunner when everybody is standing up on that stage and they're going to be like 18 to 22 people. They'll probably have to be a kiddie stage as well for the number of folks that are going to throw their hat

in the proverbial ring. What I think Gavin Newsom has done that's really important is he answered the call. Democrats have been, been flailing since Donald Trump got back into office, the 2024 elections, since shockwaves through everyone, right? Like, our usual coalition completely shattered with minority voters, with young voters, and things look like they're rebounding. But Gavin Newsom basically said, like, I'm going now because somebody has to go now. And I think that we really needed that.

And he also, you know, Prop 50 is a really big deal. Like, it's a big deal in terms of the seats and what's going to literally happen on the ground in terms of the midterms. But somebody kind of stepping up to that mantle and saying, like, I'm not bringing a knife to a gunfight anymore. And I think J.B. Pritzker has done something similar in terms of the vibes. Obviously, he can't redistrict in the same way. But I think that Newsom right now is doing a lot of good for himself for his image. We're not talking about actual California policy, which is easier for him because I think

there are going to be a lot of things to answer for in terms of what's going to be. gone on in California during his tenure. But I think that he is unequivocally a top face of the party. And I mean, the betting markets have him as a frontrunner. So he technically is as well. Yeah, look, we can have an argument over who should be the nominee. And I think a lot of people have valid points around why Governor Newsom won't be or shouldn't be the nominee. But the data is what the data is. And right now he is the clear leader from the prediction markets. He's well, ahead of the number two AOC. And then there's kind of the seven doors below that, Buttigieg, Harris, Shapiro, Pritzker, and a much of other people. But yeah, he's the frontrunner right now. Now, having said that, that's a terrible place to be. Typically, the frontrunner at this stage almost never ends up being the nominee. Here are some past leaders on the Republican side. Herman Kane, remember him? RIP. Colin Powell. This is my favorite, Fred Thompson. He was, Fred Thompson from from law and order was the primary.

the Republican leader, I mean, Gary Hart, we can just go on and on and on. Right now, the most likely nominee for president on the Democratic side is someone we don't talk about. Yeah. No one had heard of Obama or this little-known governor who'd been booted out of office and then managed to get back in called Bill Clinton. But I've consistently said, even when Newsom was really unpopular, like a year ago, people underestimate him. because he's willing to go behind enemy lines. He's very good on Fox. I think there's a great story out of California.

All of these billionaires who have more options than anyone in the world decide to live in that healthscape called California, and under the tenure of Newsom, he's managed to take it from the fifth largest economy in the world, past Japan, and it's now the fourth largest economy in the world. And I would argue he did effectively run again with the recall effort where he trounced it. So I'm biased.

I like the man. And also, finally, I think America is highly sexist and highly luxist. And he's on the right side of both these trades. But to your point, the fact that he's the leader right now probably means the good money is that he won't be the nominee. Anyways, great question. Next question. Here's a question from Sean in Ohio. Hey, I'm Sean, but I'm thinking of becoming Shauna. It is a scary moment transitioning right now. And why do I have to always look at the far left for support? There are other Democrats that could be helping me along. I'm not hearing anything. I'm so sorry that you feel that way, Sean, or Shauna, if you're already going by that name potentially. I feel terrible about that.

And any time that we talk about an issue that relates to someone's humanity in brash terms, like, come on, it's an 80-20 issue. It's gross politics. It might be the reality of winning elections, but it is gross, and I apologize for that, and I wish that it wasn't the case. I hope that you can take some heart in politicians like Andy Bashir or Abigail Spanberger, who are more moderate Democrats that I think have very good, strong messaging around supporting the trans community and really separating the issue of trans women in women's sports from transgender rights, which are part of the civil rights agenda and social justice. issues that are so important to the party. But listening to you, we have to do better. And I hope that

we will in 2026 and not allow the Republicans to make your life some sort of bargaining chip or media play or right-wing outrage that scares people away from supporting people that genuinely care about you being able to live the life that you are destined to live. If that's what you so choose to transition. So those are my thoughts. We're a liberal society and people hear the word liberal and they immediately think of, oh, Republican is Democrat. No, if Republicans are intellectually honest, we believe in a liberal society. What does liberal mean? Socialism is everyone should be equal. Fascism is the enemy within. Liberalism is that effectively everybody gets to pursue life, liberty, and happiness. And I think adults should be able to present themselves as they

want to present themselves. And you have the right to do that. That's very core to our society. So more power to you, and you should be able to live the life that makes you happiest as long as it doesn't hurt other people, and I fail to see how an adult transitioning hurts anybody else. What has happened here kind of indicates the currency or the cadence of politics the United States, and that is Democrats grabbed the transgender issue and decided that it was. was virtue and made blanket statements and policies that were just seen by the majority of America as being fucking crazy, letting a 6-5 transgender woman show up to an NC2A swim meet. There are instances that I would argue where minors entered into an infrastructure that may have moved them

too fast or that they became politically correct or fashionable. I think the Republicans in the right do have some legitimacy around that. I however believe if you really do your research, the issue around minors, and this is really where the fight kind of took off, is that the majority of transition or gender affirming drugs among people under the age of 18 is done correctly. It's done with huge protocols, huge safeguards, the involvement of a family, a physician, and it would be very difficult to find an example of any 18-year-old who's undergone surgery without the involvement of their parents and a lot of protocols. Having said that, there are some instances, as the ones I mentioned before, a transgender woman is allowed to enter a bike rise. There's cash awards

and crosses the finish line five minutes before everybody else. And progressives look around kind of bereft and I'll applaud and look at each other like, is this what we're supposed to do as liberal thinkers? So as always, Democrats, stick out. their chin and Republicans come in and see an opportunity to weaponize this issue with coarseness and cruelty and have a dramatic overcorrection and pass laws in South Dakota saying they can't have transgender athletes in high school. And then when someone actually asked them how many transgender athletes are in high school sports in South Dakota, the answer was zero. This was nothing but legislation to be mean, to be cruel, and create problems where there aren't any. And I'm

Republican on this in the sense that I think that on issues this sensitive, this complex, it should be up to the individual family, their doctor, and the way they want to acquit themselves. But as a legal adult, my sense is, you should be able to live the life you want to lead, full stop. Yeah. All right, Jess, to close out the year, it's time for us to put it all on the line and go on the record. Let's make some predictions for the coming year. Why don't you start? What's your big prediction for 2026? My big swing, and I'm scared about this, because I don't usually do it. I'm much more of like a timid predictor, but I'm going to go that the Republicans lose the majority in the House before the midterms.

So they only have a three-seat majority. I think that, especially over this health care fight, that people are going to be even more turned off by leadership, feel like they're not being listened to, and what's the point? and I should start my career on K Street faster or spend some time with my grandkids. And so that's my big swing that Mike Johnson will not be the Speaker of the House. I also think Mike Johnson may lose the speakership anyway. And that would be related to health care too.

But I'm going to go with they lose the majority before the midterms even. That's interesting. So basically you're saying Speaker of the House that Kim Jeffries is what you're saying. At least for a minute. Yeah. Yeah.

That's super interesting. I don't think it's that insane, but it feels big to me. I like it. It's both safe yet provocative. That's the sweet spot. That's what I want on my tombstone. Safe yet provocative. Safe but provocative. I like that. What's your big swing? There's going to be regime change in Venezuela.

And here's what will piss everybody off. I think it's a good idea. I think Maduro is an illegitimate leader who kicked out every international observer around elections, seized power illegally from the rightfully elected leader. Also, I think it is a very bad idea to have a. a Russian and Chinese satellite in our backyard. I think you're going to see the fall of Maduro. I'm not suggesting we invade. I'm suggesting that we be supportive of a change in leadership there.

And people will say, well, you're a colonialist arguing for regime change. No, I'm not a colonelist, but I am a pragmatist. And just as it was stupid to overthrow the democratically elected leader of Iran and put in place a US-friendly Shah of Iran, This is an illegitimate leader who is anti-American, and it's an opportunity for us to let the Venezuelan people actually decide who they want to lead, and hopefully that person will be more pro-American than pro-Russian or pro-Chinese. And I think it's a moment in time for us.

In terms of energy supply, I'm not suggesting we usurp those fields, but having a pro-America country would make a lot of sense for us. I think it's going to happen. So as usual, the Trump administration's instincts, there is some veracity or merit to them, but they go about it just in a stupid way, like bombing boats. Anyway, that's going to happen, I believe, and I believe you're going to, along what just said, I think a lot of people are going to go MTG on the president. I think he's just losing his luster and his power, and I think you'll see a lot of people decide to go. I think people are going to find their backbone and their testicles in the Republican Party, not because they have them, but because they see political opportunity in a president that's getting weaker and weaker

and sleepier by the day. Yeah, I like it. I'm also I think I'm on like Supreme Court watch. I'm fearful slash predicting that one, maybe two of these justices goes early, like Alito and Thomas maybe, older fellows to make sure that Trump isn't like fully lame ducked when they're trying to push through new nominations. So that would be... I think they suffer from the same disease as Ruth Bader Ginsburg. I think they're both fucking...

They're going to stay forever? Okay, well then... What the hell is Justice Thomas going to do? do. What does Thomas have other than this? Anyway, we'll see. All right, everybody, that's it. That's all for this episode. Thanks for listening to Raging Moderate. Stick with us and tell your friends, please. Also, why are you thinking of it? Please is a Christmas gift to us. Please hit that subscribe button. We're gearing up for a big 2026. We'll be back with our next new episode on Wednesday, January 7th. Just have a great week. Happy holidays. Happy New Year. The whole shebang. What a great year.

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