Raging Moderates with Scott Galloway and Jessica Tarlov - Trump Issues Insane Iran Ultimatum as Ceasefire Talks Collapse

Episode Date: April 6, 2026

Big news! We’ve just been nominated for a Webby Award for Best News & Politics Podcast! Now it’s time to bring it home — and we need your help. Cast your vote HERE: https://wbby.co/57448N Trump threatens to bomb Iran’s power grid as ceasefire talks quietly unfold behind the scenes — raising the stakes for a potential wider conflict. Jessica Tarlov is joined by The New York Times's Lulu Garcia-Navarro to break down whether this is a high-risk negotiation strategy or the brink of a longer war. They talk about the damage this incursion has done to America's reputation in the region — not just in the present, but generations into the future. Plus: a massive proposed defense budget paired with deep domestic cuts, new reporting on the administration's hardline immigration tactics, and what YouTube’s dominance means for politics and public discourse, in light of Lulu's recent conversation with YouTube CEO Neal Mohan on her NYT podcast The Interview. Follow Jessica Tarlov, @JessicaTarlov  Follow Prof G, @profgalloway  Follow Raging Moderates, @RagingModeratesPod  Subscribe to our YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/@RagingModerates Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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That's why over thousands of businesses have made the switch. So why not you? Try O-D-O-4-F-R-Frey at O-D-O-D-com. That's O-D-O-O-O-O-com. What are the people in the region who are looking at this going to take away from this? How is this going to affect not just days and weeks, but generations into the future? Are we creating now an entire group of people who will look at us and say, actually, Americans are imperialists. They don't

care about us. They want to bomb our infrastructure. They don't care about freedom or democracy. They just care about oil. What message does that send to people who we don't want to just bomb into compliance, but persuade. I think that this is a catastrophic failure of American sort of influence in the world that's going to have ramifications, regardless of what happens here far into the future. Welcome to Raging Moderates. I'm Jessica Tarlov, and I am very excited to have Lulu Garcia-Nabarro here with me. She's a journalist for the New York Times co-hosts The Incredible The Interview. That sounds weird. The Incredible The Interview. She co-hosts the interview.

And she's also a CNN contributor. Lulu, thanks for joining me. I am so thrilled to be here. Great. I love when that happens, though. I am waiting for when someone, like, starts off nasty about it, which doesn't happen. But anyway, this is great. We have so much to get to.

I want to start with the war in Iran. The president is currently threatening to bomb their power plants. It's been going on for a couple days. If Tehran doesn't reopen the Strait of Hormuz, warning that U.S. forces could target their infrastructure that powers millions of civilians. I should also note that it is a war crime to do that. And now I guess we just post about our war crimes in advance. His Easter truth social was bona fide crazy. He wrote, Tuesday will be power plant day and bridge day all wrapped up in one in Iran, open the effing straight, or you'll be living in hell, just watch. Praise be to Allah, President Donald J. Trump.

There's a diplomatic potential breakthrough, I guess, coming, though I know that Donald Trump does this to calm the markets every Sunday night. But this parallel track with the U.S. Iran and regional mediators are apparently in deep talks over a 45-day ceasefire that could lead to a broader deal. The chances are slim that this works out, but I do always like to hear that there are conversations. We also had this high-stakes U.S. rescue mission where American forces pulled a down to airmen out of the deeply hostile territory after. and F-15E was shot down. And now the White House is also pushing for a staggering $1.5 trillion defense budget that is paired with $73 billion in domestic cuts to health programs, housing, and education. Where would you like to begin in the world's longest intro, I guess, of what went on over Easter

weekend? I mean, it was a crazy Easter weekend in what has been an insane six weeks. You know, I covered the Middle East for a long time. I was based there. I covered the Iraq War and the Arab Spring. And so watching us replay the greatest hits from that era is kind of shocking to me. And I think when we look at what the president is doing right now, it seems to be led by so many different things except for actually getting what he wants. And what he wants is also pretty murky. But at the very least, you want to be able to engage with the Iranians in good faith and sort of see if there's a way out of this in a negotiated settlement. Because this isn't helping anyone, right? It's certainly not helping him. It's not helping his poll numbers. It's not helping the American taxpayer.

So how do we get to a place where the United States isn't going to commit war crimes, first of all, and also is able to say that they won whatever this conflict? was meant to achieve. And I think that's where we're finding a lot of difficulty, because if you look at President Trump, what he's doing, it's so short term, you hit the nail on the head. He's trying to calm the markets all the time on a Sunday night so that it'll open in a way that he can say, look, I still have control over this economy. And, you know, what does that do? It just sends everything into a frenzy. And we're just dealing with this sort of one hour at a time as opposed to sort of strategically. And so even if the United States is doing a good job militarily, it's losing the war, I think, in terms of actually strategically helping the United States. I just don't see how this

plays out in a way in which we end up in a better place than we were before they launched these attacks. It's definitely hard to find their rationale for it. I mean, you mentioned like military successes, which we have seen plenty of them. And, you know, getting this airman out was an enormous feat, right? And I think that Donald Trump felt like he could really puff out his chest right then to say, okay, you took our guide out. I'm going to get him out. But the shifting of the goalposts so enormously from not only are we going to free the Iranian people. And it seems like that talking point is just gone at this point that like we don't think about the hundreds of thousands that had taken to the streets bravely, right, for several months and was the original impetus for this, the nuclear program.

You know, I have argued with my colleagues at Fox a lot about the merits of the JCPOA and how it was worthwhile to stay in that and maybe try to tweak it versus blowing the whole thing up and then having to deal with Iran going about their business with absolutely no checks. But that's kind of off the table. And then for an understanding of what the region looks like, when you've done all this very good work in building the Abraham Accords and these new relationships with the Gulf states who are going to be the most threatened by an unruly Iran that they don't understand whatever this new iteration looks like. You know, the thing that I'm always struck by and my own experience covering the Middle East is, you know, we talk in these terms about, you know, if the JCPOA, basically a negotiated settlement that would have provided oversight, would have been better, or is the, you know,

Israeli version of this where you have to intervene militarily periodically just to, as they call it, sort of mow the lawn, which version of this would be better? But I actually think more about who are we creating right now? Who are the people right now in the Middle East after they experience this conflict? And the United States actually for the first time really being embedded with the Israeli military, you know, targeting a Muslim country. What are the people in the region who are looking at this going to take away from this? And how is this going to affect not just days and weeks, but generations into the future? Are we creating now an entire group of people who are going to be looking at the United States

and not seeing us as independent mediators who can come in and really try and help with the Israeli-Palestinian conflict with future conflicts that will inevitably. inevitably resourge, but we'll look at us and say, actually, Americans are imperialists. They don't care about us. They want to bomb our infrastructure. They don't care about freedom or democracy. They just care about oil. I just saw President Trump speak to this at the Easter roll, a supposedly happy event.

And he was just basically saying, we want the oil, and I'm willing to bomb whatever it takes to get it. Normally, when you're in very hostile territory, and I don't think it gets much more hostile than Iran. They're capable fighters. They're very tough people. And there are others like that. You don't mind when the enemy is weak, but that enemy is strong. Not so strong like they were about a month ago.

I can tell you, in fact, right now they're not too strong at all, in my opinion. But we're soon going to find out, aren't we? What message does that send to people who we don't want to just bomb into compliance, but persuade. I think that this is a catastrophic failure of American sort of influence in the world that's going to have ramifications regardless of what happens here far into the future. I think that's an awesome point. And it's interesting to see some reporting of what's going on through the Iranians' minds where they're getting a proposal for a 45-day ceasefire and saying, well, we saw what those ceasefires looked like for the Palestinians, basically the U.S., and certainly,

Israel just continued like business as usual while we were quote unquote in a ceasefire. So would that even be a worthwhile deal to take and possibly give something up like the leverage that they have right now with the Strait of Hormuz? This is one of the main problems that I see when I hear people laud President Trump's posture on the international stage. There's this whole philosophy in foreign. policy, foreign diplomacy, that looks at President Trump says, actually his superpower is being so unpredictable. It's being sort of a chaos monster. It's never being able to know what side he's going to

take and what he's going to do. And so that has everyone on the back foot. Everyone tries to please him. And so therefore, he can run the table. That's one version of looking at President Trump and saying this is actually a successful foreign policy. There is the counter argument to that. And which is basically his word has no meaning. If you are constantly saying, today is the deadline, and then the deadline comes and goes, and then you give another deadline, or you say, we're going to have a ceasefire, but that ceasefire means that actually there's going to be military action within that, who is going to take you at your word? When you want people to sit at the table with you, are you going to get them to sit at the table with you in good

faith and say, actually, all right, we can hammer out a deal that I know that you will actually fulfill your obligations to. And I think the real problem that we're seeing right now is that nobody trusts this administration's word. Because at the end of the day, it's Donald Trump. It's like basically a king deciding, and I know this has become a partisan term, but there is a sort of diplomatic equivalent to this where everything falls with him. There is no infrastructure. there is no sort of American state that can, that in the way that it used to happen, where you would have all these people with a great deal of knowledge, sitting in a room, deciding what was going to happen, game planning it all out.

It's basically now the whim of one man and a very small circle of people around him. And so when you have that as the sort of diplomacy of an entire country like the United States, It makes it very difficult for good actors and bad actors to negotiate with that entity. I think to that point, they're also observing what's going on in terms of how weakened he is on a domestic front and hedging a little bit for how long this is going to go on or if his base of support really breaks. You're totally right about the small cadre of people. I think, you know, Susie Wiles is the queen of a well-timed leader. right, where she's suddenly out there saying, you know, I wish that his aides would maybe not just show him the highlight reel and talk about the real implications for people on the ground here. And this budget, I think, sends a signal to everybody around the world that he knows that he's a lame duck, that he knows what's coming in the midterms and that he's just going for it. Because it's like I know the Democrats were tweeting celebratory things, right? Like, thanks for the midterms. Or you're just handing us such a gift saying that you're going to increase the Pentagon

budget up to $1.5 trillion and take away more housing and education for people when they already can't handle what you did in the big, beautiful bill. But that also feels like a real signal to the folks that we're supposed to be negotiating with that he's not on solid footing. Yeah. I mean, one of the things that I think the Trump era has really broken is a sense that all of our adversaries and our allies can sort of trust what America stands for anymore. And what does that mean domestically? It means that they can just play a waiting game. You saw that with Russia and

Ukraine. You know, they've been waiting us out. And that happened under Biden. And you're seeing that now with President Trump. He is a lame duck, barring, you know, sort of unconstitutional coup d'etat. And so everyone is now trying to figure out what's next. And it's like shark-infested waters. I mean, you see that with the breakdown in MAGA. You see all the different, you know, the Tucker Carlson's and the Megan Kellys and the Marjorie Taylor Greens basically trying to stake out the Vance ground, right? Basically making Vance their man. And then you see the Rubio side of the party, which is the ascendant one at the moment, you know, with Venezuela, the action and

Iran, et cetera, et cetera. And meanwhile, Trump sits at the nexus of this, and his power daily, even though it's enormous, is ebbing. And so he is now maximalist, no constraints, everything that you can possibly do, anything that before might have constrained him, which was like, I care about public opinion, I care about winning elections. None of that exists for him anymore. And so I think in many ways, instead of celebrating, the Democrats should be very worried because I think we're entering a very dangerous period. If you aren't already, make sure to subscribe to our YouTube page to stay in the loop on all the political news.

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Plan started just $12 a month. Learn more at tellus.com slash online security. No one can prevent all cybercrime or identity theft. Conditions apply. Welcome back. I want to switch gears a bit and talk about immigration, which seems like in the last few days has just like barreled back onto the front pages. Like once Tom Holman came in and Greg Bovino was pushed out and certainly Christy Nome, it felt like it had really simmered and I wondered what was even going on anymore. And it seems like there's a lot still going on. So the Times had an incredible piece about how Stephen Miller hasn't abandoned his immigration agenda. It's sort of, it's just happening more quietly. ProPublica out with another incredible piece of reporting that more than 11,000 U.S. citizen children have already had a parent detained. And I don't even know how to go through some of these stories, but you're hearing, you know, ICE just picked up the newlywed

spouse of a soldier who was training to deploy, actually coming onto the base to pick up IDs. A father who was detained for five months waiting for his three-year-old daughter's release. She was put in federal custody and apparently was sexually abused in a foster care home. The Atlantic is talking about how victims can't even go to testify. Victims who are here illegally, there was a woman who was raped and she was picked up outside a courthouse. And then the New York Times again with the video footage that undermines ICE's account of a Venezuelan immigrant who was shot by an ICE officer kind of mirrors what was. we saw in Chicago with Miramar Martinez. So how are you thinking about immigration right now? I mean, first of all, who can be genuinely surprised that Stephen Miller has not given up his,

you know, great dreams of mass deportations and making this into a country that is, you know, wider and more quote-unquote Western. I mean, that is the sort of basic tenant of his philosophy and his belief, which, by the way, is embraced by the president. I mean, I don't think that there's any question that this is something that he also has built his entire political career on. And so I think what you're seeing is window dressing changing as opposed to actually the fundamentals changing. It was a complete cell phone, disastrous in every way, what they did in Minneapolis, right? Sending in ICE forces, it basically backed up every conspiratorial idea that the it had, that this was going to be the shock troops of this administration and that they were going

to be killing American citizens on American streets. And that is precisely what happened. They've now realized that what they have to do is maybe do it a little bit more quietly, but do it all the same. And I think the only people that are really looking at this is the media because it is our job and our duty to track these people. And if you think about how far we've traveled. I mean, there was a huge debate at the beginning of the Trump administration about detaining mixed status families, especially the parents of children who were American citizens, and now we're seeing it happen all the time. The window of what is acceptable has moved so far that these aren't even debates that we're having anymore. And what the administration

is counting on is that people will sort of be distracted by a million other things, their pocketbook, the war. Like, there's a lot of things to be distracted about, and they're not really focusing on what is happening with immigration. I just want to give one other note to what you were saying, which is, you know, the Times came out with a story about these couple of immigrants who had been accused of coming after ICE agents during this whole period of the Freddie killing with shovels. And I remember the day that it happened and everyone was talking about it. And there was just sort of this sense of like, okay, well, if they got arrested, it was fine because they were attacking, you know, these immigration agents and the administration

sort of used it to say that they were under fire and look how terrible immigrants are. And it turns out it was all a lie. And these men actually lied under oath. But the problem with this is, by the time this comes out, it requires investigation. It requires journalists doing a ton of work. it's now, you know, months later, how does that have an impact on the American psyche, right? People don't necessarily know that this was a complete fabrication, a complete lie. And again, it just means that you cannot trust what this administration is saying at any given moment. They are either not investigating what is going on and speaking out of turn or deliberately lying in order to cover their tracks. Either way, what they're saying cannot actually at this point be.

trusted. And so I think that leaves all of us in a position where we are, we don't really have a sense of what's going on. Absolutely. I'm glad you raised that. And I'll just throw in that I've been thinking about Officer Ross, the agent who shot Renee Good and how we have heard nothing about that shooting since three or four days afterwards, because then we all got swept up in the Alex Preti shooting. But also Officer Ross allegedly, and CBS, I think, was the only one that reported this. had internal bleeding and bruising, but we saw no medical report, right? There was no follow-up to it,

and we saw on video that he walked away from that incident where, according to him, he got slammed by the car, but you could see that he just walked down the street afterwards. And that, to me, really blows my mind. I mean, that story was such a lightning rod for us, and we're just never going to hear anything again about that agent that,

that shot this woman at point-blank range? Because one of the things, you know, I live in D.C. And one of the things that I have found so shocking because it's not only that I live here and I work in politics and I work in media, but they're my neighbors. These are the people that I kind of know and see at the dog park

and are at my kids' birthday parties, right? And so you hear stuff. And one of the things that I find really disturbing is how all of the checks and balances, the internal government checks and balances have been completely disabled by this administration. And so unless the government at this point says, we're going to investigate this, we're going to find out exactly what happened. We're going to see if someone is lying or didn't lie. That's the only way we'll know, because all of those internal mechanisms that keep the government accountable, that keep it honest, let us not

forget, for the American people, have all been dismantled from within. And so the accountability that we expect to have for our elected officials and those who act in our name is not there anymore because so many of them have been fired, so many of them relieving. I was speaking to someone in private practice the other day, and he just says, you cannot imagine the parade of people who are coming through my door, who are sitting in government now, you know, sitting in these buildings, and they don't want to work there anymore, and they're desperately looking for something else. And every person that leaves is a person that we lose

all this important knowledge and all this, you know, basically oversight that is not happening anymore. Yeah, that has been in both Trump administrations, kind of the line in the sand, like who stays and fights, not necessarily fights against him, but fights for the rule of law, which he on many occasions is not interested in.

or who goes. And it feels like in Trump 2.0, that there is even less room for you to be able to do good work and that we also can't even keep track of the amount of people that are being pushed out. I mean, your paper does the top job in doing that, and still it's overwhelming. I mean, I guess that's what I'm saying is that, you know, we focus so much on the day-to-day because it's a flood of news, right? There's just these. constant things that are happening that we're looking at and trying to figure out what's going on. But the themes, the overarching themes of what is happening to the country internationally, what is happening to the country here in D.C. and beyond.

There are big things that all these stories, you can connect them to this fact that there is just no accountability. There is no one anymore that you can go to and say, why is this happening this way? I don't agree with it. And you started off by, I think, very astutely pointing out that the one sort of guardrail for Trump was popular opinion. And that doesn't seem to be something that holds him and reigns him in anymore. It doesn't seem to matter to him because he knows the clock is running. Clock is running.

And some very smart people have also said that he probably wouldn't be mad with a scenario in which he looks like the only person that could keep Republicans in power. So if he's like, okay, well, you can't win without me, I told you all. And like J.D. Vance can't win and Marco Rubio can't win, that that's just another feather in his cap. And I hadn't thought about it that way, but, you know, maybe that's what's going on in his mind at this point since the people he endorses always win, which is not really true. But he does like to say that. I want to, while I have you, talk about your most recent interview with the CEO of YouTube, Neil Mohan. I thought it was just fascinating. And as someone who's new to spending a lot of time on YouTube, watching things, but also putting a product out on YouTube. I was like,

finally, someone is asking him about the algorithm and content moderation because it feels like this game that we're all jumping into a little blind because we can't reach people without it. It's so insanely dominant. So can you talk a little about what you got from him on that front? Not much because he's a... And he still liked you. I mean, it was really interesting. Like his comms on it was still like, love that Lulu. And I was like, dude, you dodge so hard. Anyway, go ahead. I mean, I was told before. talking to him that he was a hard interview because he stays very on message and just, you know, doesn't like to make waves. I've interviewed other CEOs where that's not the case. But the reason

I wanted to talk to many ways precisely for this reason, we are so overwhelmed by the YouTube experience now. It impacts us in every single way. I mean, when I started doing deep dive on the numbers, I was just like, this is insane. I mean, it's sort of like 90% of, like, 90% of children from two to 12 now are on YouTube at, you know, every week. I mean, that's, it's not just us, it's our kids. And we don't know how it works. And he wasn't going to enlighten me, frankly. I mean, you know, the short end of this, you know, the conversation is that I tried to push him on the things that I find important, which is people who are trying to tell real information that comes from verified sourcing. How do you compete with the can't?

Candice Owens, how do you compete with other people who are just kind of using the algorithm in its most inflammatory way? And what is the responsibility of YouTube to actually moderate that? And I think in the Trump era, their answer is not very much. They basically, the answer that he gave was that we were essentially wrong to have done it the way we did under the Biden administration. And during COVID, we learned some lessons. And now basically, We're just going to let the chips fall where they may. And I think that that is probably quite an irresponsible answer. It also doesn't feel very long-term oriented when all the facts on the ground are very clear about the implications of these sites for our children, our own brains.

I'll have, you know, moments where I definitely feel like I had baby brain issues, but then I also have algorithm brain issues where. where my words don't come to me as quickly as I would expect. They're a little bit more jumbled. And I'm reflexively just, you know, clicking refresh and counting. You know, how many people watch this? Well, how do we change our strategy based on that? And I hate that these CEOs, they know all of this. And they're not trying to help us in the long term because it's not about getting rid of the product.

These are incredible products that do so much good. Of course. But it's about, you know, how are you going to elevate the good and put it in front of as many people as you can? I mean, at the end of the day, you know, we're trying to reach people and we don't own the platforms. And that has been the great problem of journalism in the 21st century is that we do not have the method to actually find our audience anymore. We rely on all sorts of other platforms. And so when Google, changes its algorithm for search and uses AI, it's killing off BuzzFeed, you know, BuzzFeed, which was created as this sort of digital answer to the analog generation. How can you have a business and how can you have a business that actually has a mandate to inform the American people if you don't control the way that you connect with people? And so that was what I wanted him to answer. And I think I came away with the sense that they don't have the answer to that question. they do not know how to be a better company, I think, actually.

They are many things. They're an entertainment company. They do that extremely well. They are a company that can give you information. Like they said, it's a digital library. They do that very well. But they're also a news company, actually. News organizations use their product to get to their audience.

And this is where the rubber meets the road because what kind of information are you elevating and what kind of product are you elevating? And I made a joke to him. I was like, you know, do I have to bash you on the head to sort of make this viral? And the answer is I should have bashed him on the head.

Or put like a yellow arrow pointing at people. I mean, figuring out how the thumbnail works because I spent a lot of time seeing my clips used for these moments by other creators and then figuring out the trends of like, like, if this arrow, like, hits Trump's head at this angle and, like, raises Jessica's forehead, like, it's going to get a million views. And I was like, I don't want to live in this world.

And yet, is that true? I mean, I don't know about the actual, like, what graces on my forehead. But I've had incredibly interesting conversations with some of the biggest pro-democracy sites and platforms. And, you know, when you really talk to the social folks behind the scenes, they know everything. about what is going to juice the algorithm, what aesthetically appeals, you know, how many pictures you can have in the box, how mad people get,

if there's a picture of somebody who's not actually in the interview, you know, there's a lot of diagnostics that I did not think had gone on there. But it's a huge moneymaker. I mean, it's a huge moneymaker. And also the idea of like owning your own brand. I mean, the one thing where I thought he was very interesting

is precisely on this. and the idea that AI's is a real problem for all of us who are in the public sphere, actors, journalists, because AI can mimic us, it can take our content, it can take our voice. And in this sense, that does actually really impact their own value added. If they can't protect their content creators, then people aren't going to be on their platform. So this is something that they're taking really seriously. But if you think with Google Gemini, the parent company, of course, is the creator of one of the biggest AI products that is being used. And so that inflection point is a really interesting one. But he was fascinating. I liked him too. Just want you to know, Neil, if you watch this. I didn't want to hit you with a chair. No, or an arrow. No, it came across. But it is, you know, it's a point of frustration and also difficulty for journalists like yourself that are really trying to tease something out.

that affects hundreds of millions, billions of people. And, you know, that's also why people like him are so successful that you can go out and you can give interviews and say what you want to say and not say the things that you don't want to say. And what are you going to do? Hit him over the head with a chair. The essential question. Yeah, the ultimate question. Are we going to take out Iran's infrastructure? Also, can you hit a CEO over the head with a chair?

all these things addressed on Raging Moderates, Lulu, it was such a pleasure. Thanks for joining me. Thank you so much for having me. It was really fun. All right, before we go, a reminder that not only is Raging Moderates five days a week, I mean, you know that. You're listening to me. You hear me all the time. We're now available on Substackers. Subscribers get ad-free episodes, live streams, a place to connect with me and with Scott, the whole ProfiFam. Plus, we'll get access to our new newsletter. We're calling it the Monday, rage. It's out now. Find us at ragingmoderates.profdemeedia.com. And did you hear that we got nominated for a Webby for Best News and Politics Podcasts? It was super exciting. Scott didn't smile like as big as I expected, but he might have also like not fully heard me. But anyway, he's excited. Anyway, you got to vote. Please head to vote.webbyawards.com. We also have the link in the show notes. And that's all for this episode.

Thank you so much for joining today.