Raging Moderates with Scott Galloway and Jessica Tarlov - Trump’s Iran War Plan Falls Apart as Allies Walk Away

Episode Date: March 17, 2026

Trump is facing pressure on all fronts — and the cracks are starting to show. Abroad, tensions with Iran are escalating fast after a reported strike near Tehran killed a top Iranian leader. As the situation spirals, Donald Trump is pushing U.S. allies to help secure the Strait of Hormuz — but so far, key partners are refusing, raising questions about America’s influence and the risk of a wider conflict. Back home, reality is setting in. After promising mass deportations and a “100 percent American workforce,” the administration is now expanding migrant farmworker visas as labor shortages hit — a stark reversal that exposes the limits of Trump’s immigration agenda. Meanwhile, Republicans are advancing the SAVE Act, a controversial voting bill critics warn could tilt elections toward the GOP. Scott Galloway and Jessica Tarlov break it all down — from growing global pushback to the economic fallout at home, and whether the administration is losing control of its own agenda. Plus, Scott recaps his night at the Vanity Fair Oscars party. Follow Jessica Tarlov, @JessicaTarlov Follow Prof G, @profgalloway Follow Raging Moderates, @RagingModeratesPod Subscribe to our YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/@RagingModerates  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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wherever you get your podcasts. The administration is completely off base and out of sync with the 330 million Americans who are invested in not only where American lives may end up, not only, there are 50,000 troops in the region, but potentially perishing what their costs are as a result and what this says about American power writ large and our allies. Welcome to Region Moderates. I'm Scott Galway. And I'm Jessica Tarlove. Jessica, I went to the Oscar party at Vanity Fear, the Vanity Fear Oscar Party. I don't know if you knew that. I did know it, but I want to know more. I want to know everything.

You sent me one great text. I did. And then nothing. So tell me everything. And that was before all the winners started showing up. Yeah, it was, I'm not exaggerating. At one point, I started Googling actors with Last Name Galloway because I think they screwed up. I don't know. I literally have no idea how I got them. Someone said, oh, podcasts are important and some 19-year-old intern one. What about that crazy professor? It was incredible. I thought, I mean, they just did an amazing job. And then standing in between, you know, Jacob Elodie and John Hamm ordering drinks. It's just, it felt. Did you talk to them?

I did. I talked to a bunch of people. Everyone was very friendly. These people know who you are. They at least love what you're doing for young men. I'm sure a lot of them are. at listeners, you've seen that. I mean, you guys have become, you know, you're celibes. Anyways, I didn't want to go there. I really wasn't finishing for your compliments. It was amazing. No, that's honest. That wasn't even when I'm trying to make you feel better. I genuinely think that's the case. I don't know about Jacob Allorty, but. It was amazing. I had an amazing time. Thank you for asking. What did you do this weekend? I was at South by Southwest with you. Oh, I knew that. And we had a great time. I was literally sitting next to you. Oh, and it was wonderful. James Tallarico was the Jacob Allorty of South by Southwest.

That was actually, I'll go as far as to say that was a close second in terms of my weekend was our interview with Representative Talarico. He's so good. Anyways. All right, enough of that. Today, we're going to be discussing Trump's demands to allies to step up on Iran and his immigration policy colliding with reality. If you aren't already, please make sure to subscribe to our YouTube page to stay in the loop on all the political news. And if you're really motivated, please subscribe to our substack where you'll get exclusive content in these podcasts. ad-free, amongst other things. All right, let's get into it. Trump is facing mounting pressure on

multiple fronts, abroad and home. Overseas, tensions are escalating fast. Israel said it killed a top Iranian leader, Ali Larajani in a strike near Tehran, the latest blow to Iran's leadership. That comes as Trump tries to rally allies to help reopen the Straits of Hermos, but so far, no one's committing warships, and he's openly frustrated. Back at home, there's a reality check on immigration. After promising mass deportations would create a 100% American workforce, the administration is now expanding visas for migrant farm workers because farm workers can't find enough labor. Meanwhile, the Supreme Court is weighing whether Trump can end protections for hundreds of thousands of Haitian and Syrian immigrants. Inside the government, there's also turmoil at DHS where border

control hardliner Greg Bevino is stepping down after extreme controversies clashes and a federal judge accusing him of misleading the court. And Republicans are pushing the SAVE Act, a voting bill requiring proof of citizenship and ID, which critics say could tilt elections toward the GOP. So the bigger question is, are the administration's biggest promises on immigration and global leadership colliding with reality? Still, that hasn't stopped officials from saying the quiet part out loud. Let's watch Kevin Hassett this morning on CNBC talking about the economic impact of the Iran conflict. is that the U.S. economy is fundamentally sound and that if it were to be extended, it wouldn't really disrupt the U.S. economy very much at all. It would hurt consumers, and we'd have to

think about if that continued what we would have to do about that. But that's like really the last of our concerns right now because we're very confident that this thing is going ahead of schedule. Haven't you heard that U.S. consumers being hurt is not part of the general health of the economy? That's two-thirds of consumer. It's so weird. Like, I know I've said this a million times. Why do you not learn lessons from our defeat? That's like exactly the same thing that Democrats went out there and said, actually, a little

less callous than we don't really care what happens to the average person. But we went out there with our GDP growth and our job growth and said, you know, you can basically deal with the prices because we have the fastest recovery in the G7. And everyone was like, guess what? you lose, we're picking the other guys, and then they show up, do everything wrong, and then use the same talking point. Yeah, the tenor of his voice reminds me, this is one of my favorite moments with my youngest, when he was five, he drew on the wall with a marker, and he started denying it. In the middle of its denial, he realized that he had written his name.

That's what his voice sounds like. He sounds like, okay, there's no way anyone's going to believe I'm not lying here, what I'm saying is true. You know, all of these guys, Jady Van, Scott Besant, are like, no, I'll pass on that meet the press interview. I think I'm, I think I'm just going to take a little vacation here and not have to defend any of this nonsense. Do you think that, what do you think? Do you think things are getting cheaper here? What's our data, Jess? Oh, no, the data does not indicate that's the case. Certainly gas is not getting any cheaper. And we're going to be talking about. Right. And diesel went over $5.5. a gallon for the first time since 2022. Without diesel, you've got no trucking business,

agriculture, housing, all of it relies on diesel. People still report that the grocery store is tougher for them over 70 percent say that Trump is not paying attention to what matters most to them, which is cost of living. Energy prices in general continue to spike. They seem to just not be taking it seriously. This affordability is a hoax thing. They think, It's just a buzzword. And I get it. It's, you know, funny when you hear everyone from Mom Donnie to Abigail Spanberger are using the same lines, right? Because it's affordability, affordability, affordability. But that's what wins you elections to show people that you actually care about their experience on the ground. And I think that, you know, it's still a long way until the midterms.

And people might not be paying attention to the everyday flow of this. You know, what did Kevin Hassett say on CNBC today? But their few. feelings are not changing because there has been no indication that the administration is taking the realities on the ground seriously. And if you want to run a midterm election around, I'm the peace president and I stopped eight wars or whatever ridiculous claim he's going to make, and you don't feel like you can take a vacation to Disney and go out to dinner once a week and maybe catch a movie, if that's something that appeals to you and your family, then why would you entrust the keys to the car, to the Republicans, certainly for the Senate, the House, and the White House.

I mean, I think there are going to be a lot of people out there hankering for at least divided government. Yeah, according to Kalshi, there's a 53% chance gas prices exceed $4 this week. You hadn't referenced farmers who are getting especially hard hit. I think a combination of the surge in diesel prices, what will be a huge increase in the price of fertilizer, and also their inability to find workers, has led to bankrupt, rose 46% in 2025, according to the American Farm Bureau of Federation. And you're probably going to see an even greater increase in 2026. And fertilizer prices up are 77%. Which is it. It's funny. It's the stuff you're not expecting. I wouldn't have thought like fertilizer would be. Well, 30% of the world's fertilizer comes through the Strait of Hormuz. Yeah, Qatar, right? It's, I think so. Anyways, it's, that's a word we're going to hear more about. January Pew survey found that 92% of Americans were concerned about the cost of food and consumer goods. And the level of consumer prices has increased 24% since March of 2021. So in about

five years, it's up 24%. I'm interested to know what inflation. Inflation's probably up 12 or 14% since then. Anyways, this is a big deal. If I think about, well, if you think about his three big pillars of the three legs of the Trump stool that were so effective in 20, 24, it was immigration, affordability, and, quite frankly, no forever wars. And let's use this to segue into the Strait of Hormuz. It appears that with their approach to the war in Iran, he's immediately got a two-fer and not in a good way. He's gone back on affordability and on what potentially could be or what people are worried about could be a forever war. And U.S. allies don't want to commit to ships.

What do you think are ships to help escort tankers through the Gulf or the Straits of Hormuz? What do you think that means for the war in the U.S., Jess? Well, if you're going by the original war plan, there's about three weeks left with the amount of strikes that they want to carry out where they'll quote unquote feel like they've finished the job. The question is, can we hold on through those three weeks? He seems pretty dug in about it. There are obviously reports of various off ramps that they've been trying, conflicting reports about Whitkoff trying to talk to the negotiators, like get back. on good terms with the Omanis and the Iranians to get back to the table, then there are counterreports to say the Iranians want to talk to us. I'm not sure what's true there. What I do know is that attitudinally, the administration is completely off base and out of sync with the 330 million Americans who are invested in not only where American lives may end up,

not only, there are 50,000 troops in the region, but potentially perishing, what their costs are as a result. And what this says about American power writ large and our allies. I mean, Donald Trump just posted a true social before we got on here, basically saying, you know, we never wanted your help when he openly wanted the help of the NATO countries. And they've all basically said, like, I can't pick up your call at this moment. This is not our war. We weren't consulted. No one was giving it. given a heads up. And when you consider the fact that there is, for lack of a better term, another war going on in Lebanon right now that the Israelis are waging, I mean, there are 800,000 people that have been evacuated out of Lebanon because of what Israel is doing there, which was clearly part of the plan, but not something that we were necessarily signing up to be a de facto part of. So I think that the administration is doing themselves no favors. I was really

stuck on. And I know, you know, I live in a bubble to some degree and these clips, and once the algorithm knows that I like these clips of Donald Trump saying stupid stuff, I just get more and more and more. But I'm sure you saw this exchange with Peter Ducey. Thank you. You were talking about Iran a couple times today and what they did after Epic Fury began. You said they hit Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait. Nobody expected that. We were shot. Are you surprised that nobody briefed you ahead of time that that might be their retaliation? Nobody, no, no, no, no, the greatest experts. Nobody thought they were going to hit.

They were, I wouldn't say friendly countries. They were like neutral. They lived with them for years. Iran publicly warned nine days before the U.S. Israeli sneak attacked that this is what they were going to do. They said all basis facilities and assets of the hostile force in the region would constitute legitimate targets. They sent that letter to the U.N. on February 19th.

There's also this guy in Iranian specialist, Nate Swanson, who was on the National Security counsel under Biden and then was actually on Trump's negotiating team for this new nuclear deal that they were trying to get through. And he wrote a piece in foreign affairs called Why Iran will escalate. And that came out four days before the attack. So Donald Trump is trying to sell us this idea that no one could have seen this coming, that they would shut down the strait of Hormuz when it seems like not only did Iran tell us that that's what was going to come, but people who worked on his own negotiating team, said it out loud. Yeah, I just feel obviously. to insert that Israel moving into Lebanon is after the Hezbollah fired hundreds of projectiles into Israel.

So it wasn't to say. Oh, no. Yeah, I wasn't trying to make it like nothing had happened. And I wanted to say as well that more rockets are getting through the Iron Dome than we've seen in a really long time. And it is a very dangerous situation on the ground in Israel. I just meant that this is not just about what's going on in Iran anymore. 14 countries are involved. Yeah, look, the statement that is one of the most, I don't know, one of the statements I carry my

back pocket of one of my board members, Larry Bond from General Catalyst, that's something that always struck me, or it stuck with me, and that is greatness is in the agency of others. And I think, I mean, it would be hard to, it's a pretty stiff competition for Trump's biggest flaw, but right up there is an arrogance and belief that with 30% of the world's GDP, we can, we can muscle around the world, not recognizing that that control came from cooperation amongst 60 or 70% of the world's GDP. that generally speaking, the world saw us as obnoxious, but the good guys, or at least the Western world,

and would follow us into conflicts, even when they were a bit unsure to maintain this alliance, recognizing they benefited from a kind of an American-led operating system. And just some history here around Gulf Wars and the coalitions. In 1991, under Herbert Walker Bush, 35 nations, it was UN authorized and allies paid the bill. In 2003, W, 40 nations claimed or were claimed as part of the coalition. It was mostly symbolic.

There was no UN authorization in the U.S. paid the bill. This war, two nations, U.S. and Israel, no UN authorization, and the U.S. is paying 100% of the bill, and absorbs all of the blowback. And so Bush, Jr. built a 35-nation coalition for Desert Storm, got the U.N. on board, and made allies pay $54 billion of the $61 billion tab. You know, that's real leadership. Bush Jr. claimed that 40 countries were for Iraq, but it was really the U.S. UK and a few thousand Australians. Trump started a war with Iran with basically, you know, check notes, Israel. That's it. No coalition, no U.N., no allies, pang.

Just two countries bombing a nation of, you know, 93 million people while the rest of the world, including the Arab states whose military bases were operating from, are getting hit with retaliatory strikes that they never agreed to. You could argue this isn't a coalition, right? It's an attempt to distract from domestic political disasters. I mean, they just so badly blew it here. If they'd gone to Congress for an authorization for the use of military force, if they'd limited the scope in terms of objectives, if they'd probably got a couple, at least cooperation from a couple of Gulf states, a couple European nations.

It would have been just such a different complexion of the war. And on a very basic human level, it's like, I didn't consult with you. I've created problems for you. Now I expect you to help me. And people are like, go fuck yourself, boss. You broke it. You own it. And we're sort of out there alone right now.

So this, again, I think the lesson, the takeaway here is that no matter how powerful you are, no one nation is able to dominate without a coalition, without cooperation, which is our species superpower. And I believe this is Trump's Achilles heel, as he believes he can muscle around Congress, muscle around the courts, and muscle, quite frankly, muscle around the West. And I think that this is their moment where they're happy to say, uh, sorry, boss, this one's on you. Okay, let's take a quick break. Stay with us. Welcome back. Like, I'm sure you've seen this AI slop that they're posting from the official White House account. I hate that. Actually, we have a clip of a John

Ossoff responding to the video games. Let's play that. Last night, the White House put a video on social media that depicted this war as a video game. Did you all see that? When American service members killed in action are returning to the United States in flag-draped coffins and even more Americans have lost limbs or suffered terrible brain injuries or are fighting for their lives, this White House treats war like a game. John Ossoff having a moment also, but he's completely right. And I've seen online a lot of veterans, Gold Star families responding to these posts from the White House saying, how dare you do this? And then Trump is also fundraising off of using a picture of him wearing the white USA cap at the dignified transfer.

Remember, they didn't want anyone to know that he wore a baseball cap to it, but now they're making money off of it. you just can't take these people seriously. And not only that, you can't think that they're good human beings. It's so depraved. Yeah, the word in there is serious. I think when Logan Roy says to his children who act like the entitled jerks that they are, he says, you are not serious people. The U.S. government should never be putting out memes. Anything that comes out from the president is essentially an official communication with the U.S. government. The U.S. government should never be. I'm not even sure the U.S. government should ever be tweeting or on social media. They need to ensure that what they say is taken seriously.

And it just erodes our reputation as a serious people when we start putting out memes and we don't know what to, we don't know when they actually mean something and when they don't. It's just, again, a further erosion in our brand equity. And the result is all of these things, mocking people not being taking this seriously, We're now more isolated than we were in Iraq, and that war cost us $2 trillion in 4,500 American lives and created ISIS. And the scary part here is that, you know, and I need to have a asterisk here is that I've gotten this information from a lot of geopolitical creators I follow on TikTok who follow troop movements. There are amphibious vessels and combat troops circling the island or getting in a position to go after CARG. And one of the other observations that was really interesting to me as they said, look, going after Iran's oil infrastructure means that the administration has given up on the notion of regime change. Because if you had regime change, you'd want the new regime to have the benefit of economic support of an intact oil infrastructure. And so attacking the oil infrastructure kind of acknowledges we're not going to have regime change. But this is, the chickens are coming home to roost. He went out at it alone, made no effort to even nod to any sort of a co-euvre.

and the coal, you know, who should be logical allies have said, I'm sorry, you didn't check with us. And now you want our help? Yeah, pound sand. Just on the big takeout of their intel head, essentially, the guy who they took Ali, Larajani, he was Iran's Supreme National Security Council head. It's a big deal. It shows, you know, great infiltration of the Iranian leadership coalition. we knew that they had infiltrated, obviously, to that level. But how this war is being executed makes it very hard.

And I think you've put it in these terms before to look for the good in it, right, to see what's going right? And, you know, we are being sold this idea that, you know, their missile capabilities are way down, which is objectively true, right? They're sending up 10 to 14 a day compared to, what was it, like, 900 on day one. But we also had complete obliteration of Fordo. And it was the end of the nuclear program. And then within a few months, it was up and running. And so if we are not taking out their capabilities on a permanent basis, I worry that we're going to, it's going to come back again in five years to say we have to go do this again. And it's going to become like a ritual, right, that we do this. And I'm not sure that the American people are going to be up for something like that. Yeah. And just to put a fine point on the notion that it's always important to ask what could go right here. And to your point, that's how you said it. What could go right? I've found that the best description of the war so far is operational excellence and strategic and confidence.

And to the point of operational excellence, the U.S. has damaged more than 30 Iranian mine-laying vessels. So there is, in terms of military objectives, the U.S. is performing and Israel are performing really well. Thoughts on the SAVE Act. Yeah. So the Republicans are going forward with this, even though John Thune didn't want to. he's not open to nuking the filibuster to get this passed. It is being marketed as a voter ID bill, and it is not a voter ID bill. And they come out with the stat.

I think it's 87% of Americans or something, believe that you should have to show voter ID when you go to the polls. Jim Clyburn agrees with that. Not that you should have to show proof of citizenship in order to be able to register to vote. That is only a passport or a birth certificate. 50% of Americans don't have a passport, majority of whom are Republicans, by the way. As for the birth certificate, who has ready to access to that, first of all? Like, think of the kid who just went off to college.

Do you think he took his birth certificate with him? Or got married or changed your name. Got adopted. Changed your name because you wanted to. I went to get a real ID on maternity leave, and it took me three trips to the DMV to be able to show them the proper documentation in order to get my real ID because I have two middle names and I have some IDs that have both of my middle names, some have one of them and some have none of them. And I didn't even change my last name when I got married. This will hurt the young and the

old. It will hurt married women, people who have been in the foster care system or been adopted. There are some people who own that, like Senator Ron Johnson has said, you know, I'm conscious the fact that this could hurt us. I think it's worth it to stop illegals from voting when there's evidence that like 30 people illegally voted in the 2024. election. I mean, sure, go ahead with it then, but Democrats have to get smart about this. Sorry, it's a bit of a diatribe. I would love to see us go on offense with this and say, okay, let's talk about a good voter ID bill. Voter ID can encompass this range of IDs. You should be able to show a student ID to do it. We should have automatic registration. We should have a national holiday to go and vote. Also,

Native Americans, they require a date for the ID that would be valid at the polls, and tribal IDs don't have that on them. So we should make it possible for everybody who needs one. And this would take several years to do. Obviously, you can't say it's for 2026 or 2028 to have valid ID to go to vote, to push back on them. Like if you can get a gun with something, you should certainly be able to vote with it. We should own this issue more. There is an opportunity to do that because what they're talking about will disenfranchise people, probably majority of whom would vote for the Republicans. But I think what you just outlined is the key strategy and the key flaw for Democrats. And that is we need to move from indignance to ideas.

And rather than just complaining and correctly pointing out that the past- I don't want to hear that again. Or saying correctly pointing out that a passport costs $160, that, all right, what if you have global entry, right? There should be a student ID. I love that. Or biometrics they should facilitate. Come up.

I love the response. I think that's a great idea to an alternative voter ID law that puts them on their heels as opposed to us just giving indignant speeches. And no access to the voter rolls because we know what you're trying to do with that, who you're trying to purge from those roles. We saw Tulsi Gabbard lurking around Fulton County and no doing away with mail-in voting. Conservative states use it. It is very effective.

There is not fraud with it. Go talk to Governor Cox in Utah about mail-in voting. All right. Any thoughts on the last of Greg Bovino? Yeah. I don't miss you. I mean, let's see how immigration enforcement really plays out. But now that they're giving visas to migrant workers, because they realize, like, holy shit, we don't have anyone to do these jobs.

It seems like we're being proved in left, right, and center, which is a good thing. But how we capitalize on it, I don't know. And hopefully things stay calmer and we don't see, like, Minnesota. what happened in Minneapolis again. There you go. All right, let's leave it there. Before we go, a reminder that not only is Raging Moderates,

now five days a week, we're now available on Substack. Subscribers will get ad-free episodes, live streams, and a place to engage with Jess and me and other listeners. Find us at Ragingmoderates. Dot Propgimedia.com.

Again, that's Ragingmoderates. Dot propgimedia.com. That's off of this episode. Thanks so much for joining us today. Have a good one, Jess. You too. I'll see you later.