Raging Moderates with Scott Galloway and Jessica Tarlov - Will Tucker Carlson Inherit Trump’s GOP?

Episode Date: August 18, 2026

Get your tickets now for our live show at 92NY: https://www.92ny.org/event/scott-galloway-and-jessica-tarlov Jessica Tarlov is joined by Paul Begala, CNN political contributor and Democratic strategist, for a frank conversation about where the Democratic Party stands, where it's headed, and whether the old guard is really crumbling. They open with the state of the Democratic Party following a primary season that has seen progressive and DSA-backed candidates notch significant wins. Is the moderate establishment losing its grip — and what does AOC's effort to put "Woke 1.0" in the past say about how progressives are repositioning themselves? Then, a deep dive on James Talarico and what his rise says about the Democratic Party's future. Talarico has hired Jacob Smith, a former aide to John Cornyn, as deputy political director. Jesse Watters has been visibly rattled on Fox News by the prospect of Ken Paxton losing. Paul grades Talarico's campaign, breaks down the attack lines flying in both directions — including accusations that Paxton stole pens, and Republican attacks calling Talarico "too loco for Texas" and a vegan — and gives his honest assessment of whether Texas can actually turn blue. Looking ahead to 2028: Tucker Carlson is denying interest in running, but the third party conversation isn't going away. Paul thinks Carlson will run and explains Carlson’s strengths and how he stacks up to other Republican potential candidates.Plus: Jon Ossoff gives a speech about Trump’s negligence but also made a comment about Natalie Harp, one of Trump’s closest aides. She's his executive assistant and has become a fixture in his inner circle, frequently traveling with him and appearing alongside him, and the comment clearly hit a nerve with the White House.  For ad-free episodes, exclusive livestreams, and to connect with Scott, Jessica, and the Raging Moderates community, join us at ProfG+ on Substack: https://ragingmoderates.profgmedia.com/ Get The Monday Rage newsletter: https://profgmedia.com/s/monday-rage/ Follow Raging Moderates on IG, Tiktok, and Facebook: https://www.instagram.com/ragingmoderatespod/ https://www.tiktok.com/@ragingmoderates https://www.facebook.com/ragingmoderates Follow Jessica Tarlov on Instagram, Substack, and Bluesky: https://instagram.com/jessicatarlov https://substack.com/@jessietarlov https://bsky.app/profile/jessicatarlov.bsky.social Follow Scott on Instagram, Substack, and Bluesky: https://instagram.com/profgalloway https://substack.com/@profgalloway https://bsky.app/profile/profgalloway.com Subscribe to our YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/@RagingModerates Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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item purchased, another is donated. Bambas, comfort worth calling for. Go to bambas.com and use code audio for 20% off your first purchase. That's BOMBAS.com and use code audio. Your old pal, Tucker Carlson, always stirring the pot. And, you know, there's speculation about a third party run. I host the show with Tucker for many years. I traveled to the lecture circuit with him. We have very different ideas. And we, the friendship is kind of lapsed, as you can imagine. He never used to express the slightest interest in third parties. I believe he'll run. He'll run as a Republican, and he'll win the nomination. He will be the Republican candidate in 28. JD fans, to be honest, he's an oath.

I'm sorry. And I know we went to Yale. We're supposed to be all impressed. He was a Hillbilly D-E-I admission to Yale. He is no talent. Okay. And Tucker knows that. Everything he says, he's just Tucker's sock puppet. Okay. And when he, Tucker pulls his hand out of that puppet, J.D.'s going to have nothing to say. I'm serious. Tucker will mop the floor with him. Welcome to Raging Moderates. Scott Free August rolls on, but today is a very good day because Paul Begala is here with me. CNN political contributor. He is a resident scholar at the UVA Center for Politics, long-time Democratic strategist, very funny and charming guy as well. Paul, thanks for joining me. Oh, Jess, thank you so much. This will be fun. Yes, I hope that it will be.

No, I know that it will be. Let's be glass half full. Yeah, but if people are, if people are too, they're tuning for you, thank God. If they're tuning in for Galloway and they get me, that's like buying a ticket to Springsteen and then Barry Manilow walks out. Sorry, pathetic substitute. He says he doesn't pay attention to what's going on and then I'll get texts that are like, Oh, really love so-and-so or like, I don't know about so-and-so, but he's going to love that, that he's the Springsteen to your man, aloe, though I don't feel that way. And I'm thrilled to have you, especially as we are talking about these deep divisions that have been brewing within the Democratic Party for a while, but seem to now be really at the surface. I'm curious as, you know, someone who obviously worked in the Clinton-92 campaign,

then within the administration, a long time. I don't use this as a slur, but establishment Democrat, moderate Democrat, old guard, whatever. How do you view this conflict between the middle of the party and the DSA left? Well, I think that's the right way to do it. In other words, there's the progressive center, the progressive Democrats, by which I mean, Bernie, AOC, not exactly my flavor, but they're perfectly, not. perfectly. They're not just welcome. They're essential to the Democratic coalition. But then within, I think, the left, there's a divide between the more, sorry, sensible, practical leftists like Bernie and AOC, believe it or not. And then the truly crazy and

destructive Ku Klift, by which I mean, like Ms. Chevalier, who just won a primary New York, congratulations to her, and some others. This Hassan Piker's, a young, He's not a politician, but got a lot of controversy because he's campaigning for Abdul, I'll say it in Michigan. Those folks, I don't want. They hurt more than they help, and I think their politics is really destructive. But I'd take AOC and Bernie all day, not my flavor. I mean, I'm not likely to support either of them for president. But I think that's the real, and if I may, the trope that we always get is, oh, all the energies on the left.

Well, certainly it is with young people, and old guard like me need to really pay attention to what we're doing wrong, what we've forgotten, and what we've lost. Barack Obama won under 30 voters by a margin of 34. Kamal only won them by nine. Okay, so Abdul, AOC, they really, really electrify young people. I respect that. I want to learn from that. I need to. But once you get past that, all the energy is in the center.

Because the only thing that matters to me is winning. That's it. Within the bounds of ethics and law. Winning, winning, winning. I am a member of Holy Trinity Catholic Church, except on Election Day 1. I'm a member of Our Lady of Victory. You win or you die. I mean, that's it.

That's the only thing I care about. So when I look at who's winning, I use Kamala's not very great performance as a benchmark because she's still only lost by two or three points, the national popular vote. And each of the swing stakes, she lost, but she lost them narrowly. So use Kamala as a benchmark. Sherrod Brown of the hated establishment. is running 19 points ahead of Kamala. Roy Cooper, the governor of North Carolina, is running 17 points ahead.

Josh Turrick in Iowa running for Senate, a moderate, is running 17 points ahead. My boy, Tala Rico in Texas, is running 18 points ahead of Kamala's performance. Mary Peltoa in Alaska, another moderate running 11 points ahead of Kamala. The weakest nominee we have in an important race is Abdul, and he is six points behind Kamala. and it's not because he lacks talent. He is absolutely brilliant, communicator, brilliant. And yet he can make it up. I hope he can.

I want all my fellow moderates to support him. I've asked folks to in public. But let's just be honest. The moderates are winning everywhere. And the leftists, but Grant Platner, before he flamed out, was running five, six points behind Kamala in the only swing state Senate seat in a state Kamala won. So the truth is, the winners. are coming out of the center. And although they're interesting

and they're wonderful with young people, the far left so far hasn't proved that they can win anything. Yeah, I think, you know, Rahm-Emmanuel put it that the true leftists, like the DSA leftists, were making blue districts cobalt blue. And then Abdul al-Said won his primary,

which will be the big test for this on a statewide scale. And I hope that support will consolidate around him. The latest polling shows that 27% of non-DSA Democrats in Michigan right now are saying that they won't be supporting him, though, and they're going to support Mike Rogers, which feels very dangerous to me and to have huge implications. This isn't a seat that we hope to pick up.

This is a seat that we are defending, which is very different when you look at the map and you think about what kind of work we need to do in order to get back control and try to blunts. some of the damage that the Trump administration is doing. I want to touch on something that you said about Hassan Piker or the kind of DSA Kooky left. Are you in the group that says flat out, we don't want you here? Like, you can't be part of our big tent because the party did a lot of work after Mom Donnie won in 2025.

You know, it was a big night. It was Mikey Cheryl, Abigail Spanberger, and Zoran, Mom Donnie. And we all had to explain how this works. And we just said, okay, well, we're a big tent. We're big enough for a real moderate, like Spanberger and for Mom Donnie, who had some of these DSA positions. So where are you on the scale of you can't sit with us? Oh, I don't want them. The DSA has their own party.

They do. And they have, here's what they've done for America. Okay. They elected George Bush by supporting Ralph Nader in 2000. They elected Donald Trump by supporting Jill Stein in 2016. They helped elect Donald Trump in 2024 by doing this uncommitted nonsense in Michigan. So their contribution to America has been the Iraq war, the Afghanistan war, the financial crisis, and the Trump presidency. Okay.

So I've had just about enough help from the, I mean the Ku Klift. They have their own party. And look like Ms. Chevalier won a primary fair and square. I'm not election denier. she'll almost certainly win the general election, and she should have a vote in Congress, obviously. But she doesn't have a right to caucus with the Democratic Party because she's not a Democrat.

Those far-left DSAers, they hurt far more than they help. Like I said, go ask Al Gore and Hillary Clinton or even Kamala how much the left helps. They hurt, and they tear it. Not only do they siphon off votes by forming these third parties, but they taint and poisoned the

brand. So there's this wonderful woman in Omaha. I was in Omaha in June, actually for the College World Series, not for campaign stuff, but I check the politics. So this is Denise Powell, suburban Omaha, mom, small businesswoman, just like exactly who you'd want. If you picture a Nebraska Democrat, they are calling her DSA Denise. She's not DSA. She's a very mainstream, good Democrat. But the Republicans are trying because they can't defend Trump to smear the Democrats with the kook left. Now, some of this, again, is on my wing. My folks haven't done a good enough job of engaging young people.

We haven't done a good job of defending and advancing capitalism. Yeah. My son, Billy, genius. And he works trying to get young men engaged in politics. He had the best explanation. He's got this group called Sam, speaking with American men. Let me plug them. And he came to me.

He's like, young guys, and he's much more interested in guys, You're like Scott and he loves Scott. They're in crisis because here's capitalism in a sense. You bust your ass, you get ahead. And he's like, Dad, these guys are busting their ass and they're falling behind. And it's not their fault. It's because capitalism has been rigged against them. The Reagan tax cuts, the Bush cast says the Trump tax cuts have transferred trillions of dollars to the rich and taken away opportunity.

So my side has to find a way to tell them, yes, the system is rigged. So that sounds a lot like AOC or even Abdul. And here's how we're going to unrig it for you. Here's how we're going to make capitalism work for you. Because destroying it is not going to do you any good. So that is on me and I think my fellow audits have not done a good enough job in the post-Obama era of engaging young people or advancing new ideas. I agree with you. And I talk about this as a lot.

You know, I'm a millennial. So by nature, I guess a little bit less conservative than maybe a blue-dum. you know, just kind of moved along as people reposition. My concern with bringing that reality to life, which I desperately want to, is that if you chuck out people that young folks look up to, right, figures for their brand of politics like a Hassan Piker, and you say, we're not interested in you, you're just the kook left, that we can't make a good case to them. because we've cut their movement off at the knees, right, and said, like, we don't want any part of this.

And that maybe the fractions or the groups within the left, like within the DSA, you know, AOC says, oh, no, I'm not part of the national charter, right, or chapter. I'm just part of the New York one to distance herself from the spokesperson who went on the New Yorker and came on Fox News Sunday and said, absolutely wild. stuff about abolishing the Senate and prisons and no one is illegal, et cetera. So I'm curious as someone who's so good at communicating and making coalitions happen. Like, how do we make that case to people and also not seem like we're just trying to court moderate Republicans instead of young leftists who probably ideologically have a lot more in line with us than some of the people that are in our coalition now because of Donald Trump? Yeah, I think it's a good point. And I think AOC is pointing the way. She now has said Woke 1.0 went too far. But AOC and Hassan Piker get along just

fine and support some of the same candidates. You know, I don't know Mr. Piker. I'm told he's only 23. And let him give him a little grace. He's 35. Okay, I don't know. I was like I said, I don't know. I wouldn't know if he bit me in the shower. Okay. You would know. It would hurt. He's a guy. But here's the thing. I'm old. So I remember 9-11. And I know he, apologized and renounced it. But when he said, we deserved it. Okay, my friend Leslie died on 9-11 with her husband Charlie and her three and eight-year-old girls, Zoe and Dana.

They did not deserve it. And I'm told he has big framed picture of the plane's hitting the Twin Towers on his podcast. That's beyond the pale. Look, if you're from Medicare for all, fine. I'm for Medicare for all who wanted a public option like Obama. So I'm pretty close. We can work those. things out. Everyone thinks that we should, that all Americans should have decent health care.

Right. On our side. Yes. And so we can work out those differences and we've been working them out for generations. That's fine. But when you go so far as this woman did on Fox and in the New Yorker to say we shouldn't have a Supreme Court, we shouldn't have a Senate, we shouldn't have a presidency, we shouldn't. Look, the real definition for the, for the hardcore far-left DSA is Marxism. They believe that the commanding heights of the economy, as Herr Mark said, the means of production, distribution, communication, finance must be owned and controlled by the people, by which they mean the government. I think that's crazy. And I think it doesn't work. So that's where, that's not where the line is. Again, I don't want to purge the progressive caucus. There's like a lot

are really, actually personally get along great with Bernie. I like him a lot. He's a really, It's a great guy. I don't know AOC, but I know Bernie, and I like the hell of him. We just at some point have some different ideas that we can work out. But if you are saying those kinds of things, right, are you saying that we shouldn't have private capital at all? That's nuts. And I understand why a lot of young people feel that way. But that's why I say my side's got to make the case.

But the truth is, if you expel that last 2% or so of the real crazy DSAs, you're going to gain 10% in a number. who just want you to be normal. Man, this country doesn't want Republicans. They don't want Trumpism. They don't want MAGA. We just got to give them something that they can get behind. So rather than court the 2% fringe, I'd rather take the 20% middle. Yeah, well, those are bigger numbers.

Also, and, you know, people do eventually get smart to the idea that you would rather be in power and have a few quibbles with the party in power versus absolutely hate them. Yes, it is going to the Hassan Piker 9-11 comments. What he was talking about was American foreign policy that it ended up leading to this. Okay. He's apologized now, Abdul, I'll say. Had to answer questions for this.

If Francesca Hong had won that primary, God forbid, we would have been talking about this, and you know Wisconsin is not, Tom Tiffany would have just cakewalked right into the governor's mansion. So it is definitely a good thing that David Crowley, and frankly, you know, Tony Evers, that he just knew what to do and could figure this out. Support for this show comes from Odu.

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Hi, Ryan Reynolds here for Mint Mobile. Are you looking for a beach read this summer? May I suggest your big wireless bill? It's got suspense, mystery, a slightly flat, emotional arc, and a shocking twist where you realize you've been overpaying the entire time. Fortunately, though, Mint's story is better. Every plan, $15 a month, even unlimited.

That's it. Happy ending, zero tears. Give it a try at mintmobile.com slash switch. Upround payment of $45 for three months, $90 for six months or $180 for 12-month plan required. $15 per month equivalent to taxes and fees extra. Initial term only greater than 50 gigabytes, me slow when network is busy. See terms. But let me ask Abdul something. By the way, this is like the great blessing of working where I work and I suspect where you work,

is that Abdul worked at CNN for five minutes. So did Mike Rogers. By the way, so did JD Vance. So you get to know these guys. And I think part of being a liberal is trying to see the best in everyone, trying to give people a benefit of the doubt, not hating people just because you disagree with them. So I believe all that.

My question is, I feel like I know Abdul a little bit. He's a very good person, at least my experience for them. Kind, thoughtful, big-hearted. But as a strategist, what does this guy bring you? Okay, young people. Believe me, he doesn't need help with young people. Abdul does not need help getting younger voters. He is electric with him on his own.

But he costs you enormously, enormously. He's not from Michigan. He doesn't advance any, I think, sort of useful ideas. I mean, Abdul has actually got a PhD in public health and he's an MD and he's got serious ideas. I may disagree with them, but he's a serious man. So I don't understand the cost-benefit here. And if he tells me, oh, I need young people. He's wrong. He's got them. He needs working-class folks and black folks if he wants to win in Michigan. And right now, they are not coming to him. He's got time. But he needs to be thinking every day about working-class folks in Detroit, in Wayne

County in La Come County. Yeah, it does seem, to her great credit, that Haley Stevens is laser focused on helping him build those coalitions. We have seen, with the exception of Texas, which I want to go to next, some incredibly gracious losers. And that is a very good thing. Even Francesca Hong sitting at the Unity Breakfast the day after the election in Wisconsin is a very good thing.

I'm curious, and you introduced him. You said, my boy, James Tallergo, you have known James. for a very long time. We have had him on raging moderates and think very highly of him and are very hopeful. He's raised more than 70 million in the race, more than any non-incumbent Senate candidate nationwide. He just hired Jacob Smith, who was a former aide to John Cornyn as his deputy political director, which I think is completely genius. And he is running against Ken Paxton, a, I think, uniquely flawed candidate and someone that they were warned about. I want to play a clip of my colleague, Jesse Waters, talking about Paxton. I agree. You got to hit him on the issues.

And Paxton should be doing that. Where's Paxton? I've seen Mitch McConnell more than Paxton. McConnell's been in the hospital all summer. Get out of your whole, Paxton, and do something. I can't win this race for you. It's not on Fox. Go raise some money. Do it hit and lay the lumber to this guy. I mean, he's younger and he's got a little energy and he's new or whatever. But come on. If you lose this seat for Republicans in Texas, you should seek asylum in Mexico. When Jesse's right, Jesse's right. He is.

And you see, people are running from him, like the devil runs from Holy Water. They're running from Paxton. He is a uniquely scummy individual. And he's going to lose. Tala Rico is going to win. And I know losing the football, blah, blah. blah, blah. I know.

So you think this is it. This is the moment, actually, the Texas turns purple. At least the Tel Rico wins. Okay. Here's what's going on there. The Republicans had the most exciting, expensive primary they've ever had in Texas, at least in decades. They spent $95 million, and they turned out $2.1 million people in a blood red state.

The Democrats had an exciting primary as well, but they only spent about $27 million, and they turned out $2.3 million. So significantly. higher turnout for Democrats in, I mean, a red, red state. Okay, that's number one. So there's much more enthusiasm and interest. Second, Beto, who I love, never led. Well, he trailed in 90% of the polls. At this stage, the race, he was behind by six. Tauroico is leading in the last five polls. That average of four or five points is still a very, very tight race. But he's already leading, second.

Third, who do you like? Talarico's favorable is plus seven above water. Even after a tough primary and Republicans attacking him and his manhood and all this weird shit, Paxton is underwater by 12. Okay. And now Talariko is onto something. He's doing a brilliant thing. You think of Paxen, you think corruption.

But voters are thinking about cost. They really care more about cost. And so Tauriko is saying we have a cost of living crisis because we have a corruption crisis. His corruption is costing you. That's what's holding us back, Texas. And it's a wonderful way. This is what the Hungarian opposition did to Orban. His personal corruption was hurting you in your pocketbook.

And I think that's a genius formula. I think every Democrat should say that. I happen to believe it's true that the MAGA corruption is costing you at the pump and at the grocery store. But Tala Rico is doing that with Pakistan. I think he's going to be very effective. How effective do you think the attacks against them are? I mean, you already kind of made fun of a few of them. It's a big thing that they're calling, you know, him a vegan, and he has a great comeback line about, you know, his seventh generation Texan and has been eating, you know, barbecue longer than Paxton.

Since before Paxton's first indictment. Since before Paxton's first indictment to bring it back to the corruption, he has the great new ad about stealing the pen that Ken Paxton. stole a lawyer's pen out of the security, you know, when you go through like the mags, you know, and he says, I'm the guy who would loan you a pen, right? Like, I'm trying to be part of Texas, not to take from you. But we do know that the conservative echo machine is incredibly powerful and that the woke one positions like AOC is running from hers and Talariko has addressed some of his, but there are tons of clips out there that are very deceptively edited, like what he said about immigrants, for instance, the welcome mat, right, but also a lock on your front door. He's like,

that's how we have to run the country as well. And then they just have it as a welcome mat. Like, those kinds of things can stick to people. So I guess what do you think besides this corruption argument, which I totally buy into, and I can see it in the numbers that it's working. How will he get past all of that? Because it's just going to get worse. You know, Maggie's Inc. is starting to spend, which Paxton wasn't spending any money. No one wanted to give him a dime from the institutional side. And that is changing. Oh, yeah. And they'll have tons of money. And they always try to otherize the Democrat. And sometimes it's effective and sometimes it's not. I believe it is effective when two things happened, when it appears that you're pushing out an open door.

Okay. If you really are a kind of elite, if feed out of touch, et cetera. And second, when there's not some other dominant issue. Okay, neither of those apply here. James looks like what he is, a middle school teacher and a seminarian. He just isn't scary, weird, out of the mainstream. He's just not. He's just this nice young man

with this very nice girlfriend, that's none of my business, who likes his Texas barbecue. Everything is all of our business, apparently. I mean, having to explain to my colleagues because they, you know, he was gay, then maybe he was a little bit trans, then he was inappropriate because he had a hot Latina girlfriend. Jesse did like that, though. He got excited. He was like, oh, she's Latina. It's like, yeah. And she's also like Texas royalty, too. It's definitely a good pick. But, you know, they're searching for what's going to stick.

Right. And as we say in Texas, that dog don't hunt. After all of that, he's still seven points above water. Seven points more favorable than unfavorable, which is very hard to do as a Democrat in Texas. Keep in mind, Trump won that state by 14. Yeah. He won a colossal landslide. Guess what? Today, he's underwater by 13. He's at a 27 point erosion. Okay, James told me this himself.

Trump's approval, particularly with Hispanics, where Tala Rico is very strong, is collapsing. Trump got 45% Hispanics. He did better than even Bush, which I find astonishing. But you have to respect that. That's down now to like 19 and dropping. So Tala Rico is working at, I think, very, effectively. And he is motivating the base and reaching

out. This, this Cornyn aid coming on board, you mentioned, that's so smart. Believe me, there's no way that guy does that without Cornyn's permission. So it is my sort of favorite shrink phrase these days of permission structure. You know, James has to get a lot of people

who voted for Trump to vote for him. And it's one of the things I hate about the left is they'd love to lecture. Oh, you dummy. No. Or you racist. because you voted for Trump. 75 million Americans are not racist. There's not.

And I can't hate 75 million. I just, I don't have that. It's exhausting. It is. So how about we love them? And we say, you're not the villain in this. You didn't vote for a forever war. You didn't vote for high costs and terrorists.

You didn't vote for corruption. You have been done wrong. You didn't do wrong. You've been done wrong. And I think that's what Talarico was saying to these Republicans who feel comfortable coming over. It doesn't hurt that he. loves his Lord and Savior of Jesus Christ and can actually quote the stuff that Jesus actually said. While that love thy neighbor stuff, Talarico takes that seriously, and a lot of us Christians do.

And I think that's a wonderful common language he has with a lot of Republicans in Texas. Yeah, it does seem to be a good olive branch tool for people whom I think that your policies are a bit to the left of where they might be comfortable. though he has moderated on some things and frankly just we're learning more about him. So you know that actually a lot of the things that he thought were pretty moderate fundamentally. But when you hear him talking about oil and gas, for instance, when you hear him talking about guns, when you hear him talking even about health care, you know, it's very personal for him because of his own diabetes diagnosis and the work that he did in the statehouse to make sure that people could get affordable health care and insulin in particular. you can see people's eyes light up thinking like this is not the caricature of the left that I was this is not DSA Denise right um but you know still a tough road and I'm curious coat tails wise so two questions like there are a lot of exciting candidates in Texas also all across the ballots I got to meet with Bobby Polito I loved him oh and he is less I'm a near city liberal. Like, you know, it was probably some sort of Disney world thing to me that I was, like,

taking a tour through Texas and, like, meeting a real Tejano music star and someone who, you know, talks about guns that way and has a kid named Remington, like, about the rifle. Not, you know, not just because he liked the name. Do you think that this pushback against Trump and this surge of support for change, frankly, because that's what people are choosing now. We've had a series of change elections. We had it when Hillary lost. We had it when Biden won as a reaction to COVID. Then we had it back for Trump. And I think it will happen again that people are just the status quo is unacceptable. So do you think that more of them can get over the line or you think that James will be the standout? Right now, a rising tide is lifting all boats. Okay, Gina Hinoosa,

the candidate for governor. She is doing such a great job. First off, she's mostly camping in South Texas, where the Democrats have a ton of work to do. You know, the Real Grand Valley was the most Democratic part of Texas, and then we have pissed it away and squandered it. One of my college roommates from there, and I called him after this last election, where Kamala only carried two of those counties. We just carry everyone, Hillary carried them by margins of 50 points.

Wow. And Kamala lost most of them. So I call this buddy of mine, and he's like, look, we're the poorest people in America, and here's how you get out of poverty here. you join the Customs Border Patrol, or you join the Sheriff's Department, you join the Marine Corps, or you go to work in fracking. He's like, you guys against all that. So we got a lot of work to do, but Talarico is doing it. Gina is doing it wonderfully.

Greg Abbott, last I checked, had $110 million cash on hand. Gina is taking him on and she's tied with him. Vicki Goodwin is running for lieutenant governor, which weird wrinkle in Texas, lieutenant governor runs the state as much or more than the governor. Lieutenant Governor is huge, awesome power in Texas. Vicki is taking on Dan Patrick, the very powerful, ruthless lieutenant governor, and she's tied with him. So this is working right now, and it is because these Democrats understand where the votes are. And again, whenever I'm in D.C. and people talk about the Democratic base, I know what they're thinking.

They're thinking of an assistant professor of aromatherapy candle making at Wesleyan. Okay. That's what I always wanted to be, and I ended up a cable news pundit. Right. But they're thinking about white, overeducated, over-caffeinated, over-optenated. Gender studies, blue hair. Paining the ass. Just that's not the base of the Democratic Party.

That is precisely 11 percent. Believe me, I've got the data. It's 11 percent of the Democratic Party. The base of the party is black and brown voters, and increasingly Asian-Americans, Native Americans, and immigrants. It is non-white working-class voters are the heart and soul in the base of the Democratic Party. So Tala Rico, Gina, Goodwin, they're focusing on the real base. They're going to get, believe me, all my fellow, I mean, I'm now teaching at my fourth university.

So, okay, I'm much more faculty lounge than factory floor. But I had a couple college jobs in factories, and I have huge, like, I grew up in the part of the middle class. So I get that world, I hope. But they know, Taurico, Gina, Vicki, that the real business. base of the party is not these kind of academic elites. It is working class. And the fact that the Democrats lost the working class to a corrupt billionaire who was potty trained on a gold toilet is an eternal source of shame to me. And they're winning them back. But that's how you do it. And it's not even so much left right as it is up down. And we got to rebuild from the bottom up.

I totally agree. And it was interesting to see that coalition come together and so quickly in Wisconsin, right, for David Crowley. This show is supported by Atio, the AI CRM. Atio is the AI CRM that turns every customer signal into context you can act on. Connect your email, calendar, and product data, and Atio instantly builds your CRM with enriched data and a complete picture of every deal. Then you can ask Atio anything. Spot a deal at risk, draft outreach, uncover new prospects.

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the official airline of the WNBA. Before we swing over to talking about the Republicans, on that point, you know, you name black and brown voters as a core faction of the base. How do you think black voters in this might be more relevant to Talleyico's race than others are feeling about him? You know, Jasmine Crockett kind of shapeshifts around questions of whether she's going to be out campaigning, you know, for him and with him, et cetera. Are you concerned about that at all? Very.

I'm really glad you raised it because even I went immediate to lead to Hispanics because that's where Tala RICO is doing so much better. He performed poorly with black voters in the primary. Or more accurately, Jasmine performed wonderfully. Which makes sense. She is incandescent. She is really a star. We had her on. Scott loves.

She's amazingly charming and also incredibly smart. And it all comes across. And so it was not unexpected. And it was a huge feather in her cap, how well she certainly did, you know, consolidating that group of support. That's the most important cohort that Talarico has to earn. And he's working on it. They're not just going to come because of jazz.

I don't put it on her. It's now James' job to win James' race. And he's working on it. But that's critically important. People don't know this. Texas has more black folk than any other state. More black people live in Texas than New York or people black people live in Texas in California. But even I, as a Texan, neglected to focus on that as much as I do the Hispanics, because they're moving right now.

They're coming to James. He has to earn those votes. And I think he's doing it. He's doing it by showing up. He's going to churches. I'm from Fort Bend County. I just saw on his feed. He went to the big black church in Fortman County, Texas, outside of Houston.

He's working it, and he has to. But he has to earn those votes. You can't take them for granted. You can't just say, oh, my opponent will endorse me and that will get me those votes. It won't. And so I don't put any of the onus on Jasmine to win this thing. It's all about James. I didn't mean that in the sense that this is up to her.

And if she says, like, go, that everyone's just going to suddenly fall in love with James Hallorico anyway. I was just saying it feels like a bit of an obstacle. on his path towards consolidating the base if she's not as enthusiastic about him as one would hope, you know, pushing a boulder up a pretty big hill. Yeah, she has endorsed a ticket, which means she's endorsed him. And that's kind of all you can ask after a tough primary. I will note, look at who Tala Rico has asked to come in a campaign with him.

First, he's hired according to aid. Second, he's already had Barack Obama come in there, which is the biggest gun you could get. in Texas, which Obama lost twice, but he gladly had him in there. But he's not having Mom Dani come in there. He's not having Hassan Piker. He's not having the far left or the kook left come in there. He's having the sensible, moderate mainstream, the President Obama being the epitome of the establishment.

And so that's going to help enormously, but he has to do it on his own. And, you know, my long experience with this is the reason I'm happy the Democrats have changed their calendar put South Carolina first is that the, The real heart of the party is a church lady in Orangeburg, South Carolina. Okay, they tend to be much more moderate. So that's maybe why I like him because I'm moderate too. But that's the folks TALRICO needs to think about and how to get them.

And that just takes work and relationships. You know, Bill Clinton earned those votes because he had been working in those fields all his life. You have to have a relationship. And he's, James, is having to build that. Because this district didn't have that many black folks in it when he's in the legislature. So he's trying to build that as he, runs. And you're seeing that it's a challenge, but he's going to do it because he's committed to it. And I think the respect you show by showing up and asking people for their votes rather than taking

them for granted, like a lot of Democrats do, is very important. Yeah. He's definitely doing the work. You know, one of those who's always out there. I want to cross over and talk Republicans a little bit. Your old pal, Tucker Carlson, always stirring the pot. And, you know, there's speculation about a third party. run, you know, him or there are other some folks in the talking space or influencer space, whatever. How realistic do you think it is that Tucker Carlson could get himself onto that debate stage in 2028, where I imagine it's going to be a pretty big primary field.

You know, we tend to focus on J.D. Vance versus Marco Rubio, depending on who gets to go in the cart and get onto the safe plane or whatever. But, like, you know, there are going to be more people up there. As you mentioned, I host a show with Tucker for many years. I traveled to the lecture circuit with him. We were close friends, honestly, like, we're real friendship. And so I've never spoken to, I don't want to. We have very different ideas.

And the friendship is kind of lapsed, as you can imagine. Oh, you guys don't hang that much anymore? We don't anymore. That said, I've debated it more than anyone in the world. And he is a brilliant debater. here's one of the things he always says. Third parties are like bees. They sting and they die.

He never used to express the slightest interest in third parties. So I believe this is not having talked to him in years. I believe he'll run. He'll run as a Republican and he'll win the nomination. He will be the Republican candidate in 2028. Here's why. He has the most talent. First off, he's going to run, which I would have never guessed because he never thought of himself

that way when I knew him. But I've known a great many people who ran for president. and they always make the decision this way. None of them look in the mirror and say, oh, it should be me. I should have trillions of dollars of spending in a three million army. They always say,

well, not am. He's terrible. He's a jerk. Tucker's looking around that field, and he's saying, JD Vance, to be honest, he's an oath.

I'm sorry, and I know we went to Yale. We're supposed to be all impressed. He was a hillbilly DEI admission to Yale. Okay, he's a dumb, and an oath, and a charmless, he is a no talent.

Okay? And Tucker knows that. Everything he says, he's just Tucker's sock puppet, okay? And when Tucker pulls his hand out of that puppet, J.D.'s going to have nothing to say. I'm serious. Tucker will mop the floor with him. I think Marco Rubio right now is on a bit of a sugar hike

because he doesn't have a partisan job. I saw this with Hillary. As soon as she left Secretary of State became a politician again, she got hammered. They started sitting on her again. Yeah. So I, I, plus, I think he's a little hollow.

I think he's got a glass job. Rubio. So then what do they have? Donald Jr. Pete Heggseth is in Iowa today and his personal capacity. Governor Sanders in Arkansas. Arkansas has produced one pretty good president. Tucker will whip them all.

He will kick their asses. And he's putting together what I believe may be the future of the right, which is populist economics went into populist culture. you know, they always had this elitist economics wedded to populist culture. And I think Tucker is going to come full Bernie on the economy. He's going to attack concentrations of wealth. He's going to support unions. Maybe I'm wrong, but there's a holistic argument here, a seamless garment of populism

where he's going to hate the malefactors of great wealth and the immigrants. And, you know, the piece that all together. And I think there's a lot of power in that. I'm terribly warning for my country. I wouldn't support any of that stuff. But I think I'm telling you, he's the most talented guy out there and candidate talent matters. I mean, I'm a little scared by what you just said. I don't disagree with a lot of it.

I knew Tucker far less well than you did, but got to know him for a few years when we crossed over at Fox. And he was always incredibly charming, obviously, but so generous with his time. and knowledge and connections. And he and to someone, you know, I was ideologically swimming upstream there also. So I could see that world. I just, for Tucker Carlson to become their nominee, it feels as if a lot of traditional Republicans

who were maybe hanging on, you know, were maybe tried Trump in 2016, left, 2020 for Biden came back in 2024 because they thought the economy was so terrible or that we had gone too far to the left. I don't see how they can stick around for a Tucker Carlson. Right. I agree. And I think that opens up. That's better. So we just get more voters. If the opposing army abandons Vienna, take Vienna. It's about that hard. Right. If they're going to walk away from the center, let's us take it. Instead of chasing some mythical socialist dream, I think it offers enormous opportunity for Democrats because I don't think Tucker would reside in the sensible center.

And I think Democrats ought to. Yeah, no, I'm happy to be there. I'm into olive branching in a lot of directions, though. Yes, I'm the middle child of divorced parents, okay? I love everybody. I want everybody to get along. And you want everyone to love you and to notice that you're there. That's right.

Middle children are the most psychologically interesting people to me, by the way. and older, we're only two. Me and my husband, first children, and so our second child is endlessly fascinating to us. Like, we understand our siblings now that we have a second child who's demanding that she be treated as a first-class citizen, not the second class, like all the hand-me-downs. But then when we have friends with the three children,

we're like, oh, these middle kids just lost. You're like raised yourself. We had four. And I wish I would have 24. But there's something to me in the birth order. There really is. But they're also, they're their own people. We can screw them up.

But my kids are extraordinary because they're extraordinary. They have a pretty great mom, too. But it's mostly, it really is just them. I honestly believe it. Now that my kids are all adults and, God, they're just perfect in every way they are. You make me cry. But it's because of them. It's not anything I did.

And like I said, my wife is extraordinary. And, you know, MBA, Army Brat, Sunday school teacher, businesswoman, and raised the four best boys you ever met in your life. Four boys. She's the luckiest woman in America. Actually, I know that boy moms feel that way, but those are like the dirtiest bathrooms and... Oh, the car, picking them up from... They're all jocks.

Picking them up from football or rugby. Oh, the sweat. Like, did anyone play hockey? That is the stinkiest. We had rugby, baseball, and football. But now two oldest are married, and the third is engaged, and the fourth is involved in a wonderful girl. So now I have these women in my life, these young women who I didn't have to raise, who are brilliant and interesting and challenging and fun. It's just great.

Now I kind of wish I'd been a girl dad, but I can be a girl father-in-law. Well, you give me a girl, grandpa. Yeah, that may be coming. I mean, whenever your time comes, I think you're going to nail it. So that was an all-time great dad answer to a non-sequitur, or to a non-sequitur. side conversation, I should say. And I'm going to try to weave this somehow back to Natalie Harp, who is someone's daughter. So Natalie Harp, one of Trump's closest aides, his executive assistant, known as the human printer. She was featured heavily in New York Times reporting by

Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan. She had very sadly bone cancer and credits President Trump and his policy of right to try with her surviving and has become this extremely hardworking and trusted assistant for him. Maggie Hebram calls her Trump's binkie, which I thought was a particularly funny one. And she's written letters to Trump saying, you're all that matters to me. And Trump has noted that she will never leave me. So Natalie Harp has become a topic of conversation because John Alsuff, another candidate who I think is absolutely nailing the corruption conversation, mentioned her in one of his Sunday rallies. So let's play a clip of that.

And while the sailors on the Lincoln fight his war, while he fruitlessly drains our munitions and oil reserves, the president sleeps through his meetings. He golfs and trades stocks. See, he doesn't want to do the job. He wants to build his ballroom and travel with Natalie on their apparently defenseless flying palace gifted by the Emir of Qatar.

So I'm unabashedly in an Asoff mood. I am one of those tom. Look at that heroic camera angle, too. I know. His glow up, like everything is just working for this guy right now. And it's all also incredibly intentional. And Politico has a filmmaker before he became a politician. Well, it makes sense.

I would go to the theater and I would pay $50 for a ticket to watch John Ossa talk about how Donald Trump is enriching. himself and destroying the lives of average Americans and getting us into these wars of choice. This particular line has struck a chord. And, you know, the crocodile tears from the right on this, you know, saying that this is just sexist and the message that we're sending to young women working in politics, calling out Natalie Harper. He didn't, you know, there is an insinuation. He certainly didn't say, like Donald Trump and Natalie Harper, having an affair. But we do know from Ossoff that he hand picks every single line. There is nothing that he says. He said, or that goes out from that campaign, that he has not rubber-stamped himself,

and that he feels very strongly that Democrats have been seeding races in Georgia for a long time that we could have won. And I almost believe him that he is solely focused on winning his Senate seat again before he moves on to 2028, where he's not interested in running. So what do you make of all of this and their intentional choice to put Natalie Harp into the ecosystem and get us all talking about her? Yeah, I don't like it. Okay. I don't. First, as just a principle, always attack the organ grinder, not the monkey.

Okay, I was a staffer. Staffers are all interchangeable. We're all fungible. We can all come and go. De Gaulle said the graveyards are filled with indispensable men. Well, now women, too. So that's number one. It says a strategic matter.

And you don't read. So you would have advised, if a speechwriter wrote that, you would have, you said, John, I don't like, you know, you can do the secret card going. off the Katari jet thing in a different way, like, don't involve her. Correct. I don't think you, I don't like it. I don't think you gain anything. And I, what you gain is attention, right? So we all pay attention to it.

And by the way, you don't do that to win a Senate race. That is looking forward. And I'm like you deeply impressed with him. I'm blown away. I think he's absolutely top tier talent. I hope he runs. I hope they all run. But that said, I don't like that.

I don't like attacking staff when you should be attacking Trump. And then the insinuation, I mean, I've lived through all this, so I have the scars. Oh, really? Did something happen? I don't remember. But as a faithful Catholic, I was raised to believe that sex is a dirty, vile, disgusting act. And that's why you saved it for the one you love. I don't want to hear about it.

I don't want to think about it. I don't want to know about it. It's none of my damn business. And I'm much more interested in like the jet and knocking down our East Wing and spending a billion dollars. Maybe our money, maybe special interest money, I don't know, to build himself. There's so many things to attack with Trump. I just wouldn't do it. If we are going to be attacking him, which we need to.

And Alsuff is one of the candidates who has never taken the bait to go off message on this. I mean, besides the Natalie thing. But that was structured. and obviously they made that estimation, and I completely take your point on that. Within the White House right now, they are not stupid, and they have James Blair,

and they have Tony Fabrizio, who are coming in, and they're showing them the numbers, right, on where they're underwater, which is basically everywhere about crime and policing, and they need to decide what to do about the war in Iran

and how they're going to get people, you know, decent health care money back in their pockets. How do you think they're thinking about the midterms and what they can do in just a few months? I, this is uninformed, but I think they're lying to him. Trump does not strike me as a leader who welcomes bad news. A good leader, especially a president. The highest form of loyalty is to go to the president and say, you're wrong.

No, sir, we're not going to do that. That's the highest form of loyalty. Being a yes person is very easy. I worry, honestly, that this president did, I don't know. I want to know. Did someone come to him and say, you know, if you start a war with Iran, they can close the straight of hormones. I don't know. General Kane seems to be saying that they did do that. I just don't know if it was in our quiet voices that, like, I used with my toddler. But smart people in there, not like Pete, but the regular rank and file. Well, I worry politically, not as much because I want him to lose politically. I want America to succeed.

internationally and domestically, but politically, I want Trump to fail. And the truth is, they're screwed. They're screwed. There's nothing they can do in the next 77 days that's going to turn this thing around. They're screwed. Build an arc. Because I thought it was going to be a wave. I was wrong. It's going to be a wipeout. I'm telling you, when the Democrat is leading in Alaska, when the Democrat is leading in Texas, when the Democrats are in Ohio, in Iowa, these are all places Trump won by double digits. Yeah. Okay. We're going to win. We're going to win. everywhere. We're going to win Greenland. We're going to win British Columbia. We're going to win places where the Republicans unopposed. I'm serious. It's going to be the biggest daggum wipeout.

And I know they're going to cut the margins with their corrupt redistricting, their racial gerrymandering. So that may put a little bit of a damp run. But I am telling you, I've seen these things. The most likely scenarios, right now Democrats have a commanding lead. And in the last 10 days, the most likely thing is that the bottom falls out for the Republicans, that a lot of these folks you were talking about before, these kind of thoughtful Republicans who, they didn't sign up for any of this nonsense, that they're either going to stay home or they're going to say, okay, Tala Rico is tolerable to me or Sherrod Brown or Roy Cooper or Mary Peltola. So I really do. I think that you're looking at a total wipeout. What do they say to the mad king about that?

I have no idea. I mean, I did work for a president who lost his ass in the midterms, and we told him. It didn't do any good. But, and I know President Obama's team went to him and said, you know, this is, there's a structural problem. They're going to lose no matter what because they have the trifecta. But you add to that an unpopular president, unpopular war, high inflation, terrible corruption. It's just, and by the way, some pretty crummy candidates when the Democrats have recruited

some pretty great ones. It's just going to be, I know you're not supposed to say it. You know, we're all supposed to pretend the other side is 10 feet tall with an IQ of 300. But they suck. And if we don't wipe them out this year, we should find another country to run in. I would agree with that. And we also need some good news before the 2030 census where everything becomes really terrible. So get your wins in while you can because it's only going to get worse.

And he could get another Supreme Court appointment. And on that uplifting note, Paul Vagala, this was fantastic. Thank you for joining me. Support for this show comes from Quarrow. CoreWeave. Everywhere you look, AI is expanding what we thought was possible, and at the center of it all is CoreWeave. Medical research and diagnosis, education, complex visual effects for movies, science and technology breakthroughs. CoreWeave powers AI pioneers around the world with purpose-built tech, building what's never been built before. Coreweave is the essential cloud for AI, ready for anything, ready for AI.

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