Rates & Barrels - 2021 Pleasant Surprises, Part 3

Episode Date: September 27, 2021

Eno and DVR continue their pleasant surprises series to discuss the previously skipped Tigers, the NL West, and the rebuilding Pirates.  Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarris Follow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiper e-mail: [e-mail] Subscribe to the Rates & Barrels YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/c/RatesBarrels Subscribe to The Athletic for 50% off the first year: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Welcome to Rates and Barrels presented by Topps. Check out Topps Project 70 celebrating 70 years of Topps baseball cards. It is Monday, September 27th. Derek Van Ryper here with Eno Saris. We are heading back into our Pleasant Surprises series. And there was one unpleasant surprise from me last week when I cut part of our rundown from Monday and pasted it in for Wednesday to continue the series

and left the Detroit Tigers sitting there on Monday, even though we didn't talk about them on Monday. So I appreciate everybody reaching out and saying, hey, did you guys forget the Tigers? Heartfelt apologies. Yeah, we did. We didn't mean to forget them, but we did forget them thanks to my phenomenal use of the copy and paste tool. It's too bad that that's a new tool and I haven't had time to learn how to use it correctly.

But on this episode, we'll dig into the Tigers, the NL West teams, and probably a couple NL Central teams. We'll close out the series on Wednesday, kind of times out nicely with the playoffs just around the corner. And as we mentioned, I believe on a few episodes, we are going to go every weekday starting the Tuesday that the playoffs begin at 1130 Eastern. If you watch us live on YouTube, 830 Eastern. No, 830 Pacific.

See, I'm still learning time zones too. You know, I'm uncaffeinated. I'm already tired. Oh, no. And I don't know where I am. With the Monday ass. Oh, already. I'm so angry right now.

You have no idea how mad I am about everything. Oh, that's where i'm at as well that's where i'm at as well although i did get i'd say about 75 seconds of bliss on the on the um on the river yesterday oh i'd A good 75, maybe 90 seconds. 90 seconds. Because we tried to take, me and one of my best buds tried to take our kids,

which range in age from nine to five, four of them, tubing. And we went the wrong way for 200 yards before we realized that was just the wind blowing us the wrong way. By the time we got back to the place that we launched, my youngest child had said he was cold and wanted to get out. And by the time we got 50 yards past where we got in, my oldest child said he was done with this whole thing for the day and wanted to go home we were two hours north of san francisco on the river and we and the lady had just told us it would be five hours of a float down river to get to where your car where you left your other car yeah we had a major uh we had to really rework the day there.

We basically tubed to a spot 100 yards downriver and then just hung out for a while and then left. And then drove back to the other car. Exactly. I thought it was hilarious, man. I mean, we had to laugh for crying. In the end, I think we did a good enough job that, like, most of the kids were like, let's do that again. Which I think you have to just keep trying until at some point they're, like, all over 10. And you can actually maybe get a couple hours of blissful going down the river.

To the credit of my six-year-old, there was a point where I got him into the sun. He has very little body fat, so he got cold pretty quickly. But I got him into the sun, and he found a way to get on the tube without being in the water. And he said,

this is bliss, which is a surprising thing for a six-year-old to say. So he's going to lead the charge for us getting back in the water, I think. We need a little bit more body fat, a little bit older, and the dads need a little bit better sense of direction. Well, it'll happen. With a little more experience, I'm sure you guys will be great on the river. And, yeah, next season, people change a lot over the course of a winter.

So I'm sure you guys will be pleasantly surprised. But, yeah, 12 hours of effort for 90 seconds of joy totally makes sense. Yeah, it was a deal. It was great. So let's pick up where we left off and start with the team we forgot so we don't forget them again. Let's talk about the pleasant surprises on the 2021 Tigers. And I think, you know, we're mostly concentrating on the hitters in this case because we were looking at the season results for the Tigers on the pitching side. You pointed out to me, Michael Fulmer currently leads this team in war in that group of pitchers

which i know he's had a nice year but i would have thought terry scoobel or casey mize for sure would have at least been in that two and a half to three win range much better than a reliever like fulmer sitting at one and a half wins but really just a strange year for this team the guys on the hitting side that i like i mean mean, Robbie Grossman, he's got a shot of going 2020. How does this happen? Yeah, you know, he really was just a super patient, maybe overly patient guy when he came over from the Twins and the Astros, I think was that's where he started his career. But he in Oakland, he took a real step forward because I think he just realized that he had to be a little bit more aggressive and catch the ball out in front.

And if you look at his max EV and some of his barrel rates, they took a big jump in Oakland. And he's riding that new approach. I think if you can combine – that's the hardest thing in baseball. I was talking to Trent Grisham about that last week. can combine that's a that's the hardest thing in baseball i'm talking to trent grisham about that last week you know combine an excellent eye with an aggressive ability to take advantage when you get the pitch you want you know what i mean like the two two things kind of sometimes work against each other where you start being on your back foot being really passive and waiting too long

i think grossman's really found that mix of catching the ball out front, but also being super disciplined. So I think he's my candidate for making the most out of what he's got. And I'm not saying he's not an athlete. I mean, obviously a guy with 18 stolen bases and some decent glove out in the outfield is an athlete, but he kind of is in my Jed Lowry all-stars, you know, where it's like he's making the most of what he's got. And kudos to him. I think he has to be the winner. Fulmer counts as a pleasant surprise,

and all those pitchers that have done some good, like Tarek Skubal and Casey Mize, I don't think that those would be counted as pleasant surprises because people wanted more out of a lot of those guys. Casey Mize was a top, top prospect. So for them to come around and be okay is not quite a pleasant surprise. So it's Grossman or... Akil Badu, I think, is the other player that's interesting here. Rule 5 pick, of course,

got hurt two years ago in the minors, didn't play above high A before debuting earlier this season, and I would have thought that the final numbers were almost certainly destined to be those of a below average player, just given those circumstances. It wouldn't have been a knock against him at all if that had been the path for Akil Badu, but he's probably going to finish this year with an above average WRC+, unless he goes into the worst slide ever over the final

week. He's got a 109 in that regard. 13 homers, 14 steals. It's a 258, 324, 446 line. Very similar to Grossman. Fewer walks. Slightly more batting average right now. Doing a little bit of everything, though, to help us out on the fantasy side.

And I'm almost curious which one you'd prefer next year, given that Badu, I think, could still get a lot better. And with Grossman, it seems like while these underlying skills have been in place for a long time, this sort of seemed like the best it could possibly be for Robbie Grossman, even if he's a better player than we've been giving him credit for. I liked what you said off-air about the jump that he's made, that Akil Badu has made, and what that changes for you in terms of your hopefulness going forward. Because I think if you took the names and

ages off of these two players and i was just looking at them as a collection of stats i think i would prefer robbie grossman walks more um strikeouts strikes out less i had more steals this year um looks comparable in the stack cast batted ball stats, but Badou would still have a little bit of a power edge there. But given the fact that Badou is younger and has made this big jump, I think there is some hope that that strikeout rate could reduce even more going forward. And if you get Badou down to 24%, 25% strikeout rate

and reduce that edge that Grossman has there, then I'm going to take Bidou's tools because he has the higher max EV. He has the higher barrel rate. He has the higher power upside. And if you prorate out his steals, the higher steals upside, steals age terribly. So it's Bidou me uh for all those things yeah i'm on badu over grossman could see both being a tick on the underpriced side because there's still i think pretty low expectations for the tigers lineup as a whole but i think both are doing some pretty impressive

things one quick note uh badu and and and uh should be mentioned in this conversation, Eric Haas. The catcher there are, I think, wins for Max Evey. If you look at Badoo in April, on the 12th, he hit a ball 109.3 off of Zach Granke for a homer. And that is enough to take notice. He did hit a ball in September 111.8, if you're looking at his max EV.

But just as soon as someone hits a ball over 108, that means they have demonstrable raw power. The same thing can be said for Haas. I picked up both of those guys in AL Labor for decent bids as soon as I saw those well-hit balls. And one well-hit ball can mean a lot. And in this case, it meant a lot of value for the people who picked him up. Yeah, with Haas, I mean, I think he's kind of an average-ish sort of defender behind the plate, so he needs to hit to stay in the lineup in the long run and even with that power that he's showing us he is more of a deep league sort of player because it all adds up to a league

average sort of line doesn't draw a ton of walks does strike out a lot very typical of the position but the power is legit I mean that's 35 to 40 home run power in a world where he gets the dh that's not going to happen of course but just i wonder if he'll be overdrafted next year maybe yeah i mean i think because there'll be some risk to his playing time he won't necessarily be a guy that gets another 450 plate appearances next year just because he'll be with the team all year or whatever you know i mean it's like it's a it's a borderline package all around, all the way around. Although nice power. I think that's a profile that people tend to get right more often than not.

They tend to bet against someone like that, holding everything they did the previous season, because there is so much downside with that much swing and miss, but definitely a pleasant surprise for the Tigers this season. Let's get to the NL. Let's start with the Diamondbacks at the bottom of the NL West. That is a very unpleasant surprise. I think there is probably a podcast from us earlier this season,

back during March or so, where I might have predicted that the Diamondbacks would be the third best team in the NL West, and that would have meant that the Dodgers and the Padres were in some order one and two. And yes, that would have meant that the Giants were below the Diamondbacks, which is probably my worst call, at least from a team perspective for this season.

I would say Victor Robles remains my worst individual call. Ding, he mentioned Robles. Let's take a look at the Diamondbacks. Much like the Tigers, I couldn't really find a pitcher to be really excited about. I mean, I think Zach Gallin missed time with injury, and maybe the pleasant surprise was that it didn't turn into something worse, but the numbers were a tick worse than we expected. Garner just looks like a guy, even though he had that seven inning no hitter earlier this season. Luke Weaver still has a home run issue. I found most of the interesting things about this team to be on the hitter side where Dalton Varshow had a great second half. So I think he probably wins the award. And Josh Rojas ended up sticking around most of the season and he's going to

finish likely with a WRC plus above 100. I guess the thing that's interesting for me is I expected a little more power from Rojas. You know, I'm just kind of curious if you think there's one more level he'll unlock in terms of game power, assuming that he's got a spot to call his own or plays every day across multiple positions again in 2022. Yeah, I've been disappointed by it and to the point where i've thought about cutting him into some shallower leagues um one thing that i like about him though is that he's got multiple eligibilities and there is a tangible value for this that has been there's been a number put on it douglas fearing who used to work for, used to run the Dodgers

analytics department, and then now has created Zealous Analytics, which is a kind of a freelance kind of analytics shop for sports. Douglas Fearing wrote a piece saying that versatility, positional versatility could be worth as much as one to two wins a season for the team. And he was talking about Chris Taylor and Ben Zobrist, basically. Rojas is that type of player that is just super valuable in terms of adding plate appearances wherever you could use him. And I expect that'll still continue next year. It depends a little bit on what sort of eligibilities like what sort of your eligibility requirements in are in your different leagues

but um from a real life perspective and from like a filling in the gaps perspective the fact that he can play for you at second third most likely uh short stop and left field and right field most likely um is going to be super useful is something that should keep him around but in terms of what do i think his power output is next year i think it'll probably be something like 15 to 18 homers and 10 stolen bases um so not a starter in most leagues and uh kind of an awkward uh crowning for for pleasant surprise because it's it's on the order of the softer end of pleasant, if you know what I mean. We're digging to find options in Arizona. It's just been that kind of year for that franchise. But the question I guess I'd come to after looking at the underlying numbers is, well,

if the power's not really going to be there, and if what he did in 2019 was merely the result of the live ball that was being used at the AAA level, because that was where I think people started to get this idea. Maybe he could be a do everything sort of guy. He had 12 homers in 53 games. That was at Reno, which is hitter friendly anyway. And then of course, 2019 had that crazy ball they were using.

So I almost wonder if the speed is where more of his fantasy value comes from in the future, because in terms of just being a runner, 64th percentile and sprint speed, not a burner, but maybe he's more of his fantasy value comes from in the future. Because in terms of just being a runner, 64th percentile in sprint speed, not a burner, but maybe he's more of a 20 steals guy if everything clicks and less of an asset in the power categories. Maybe that 8 to 10 home run range is more realistic as the future baseline. But if he runs, if he doubles up his attempts because he gets on base enough, I think that's at least a possibility.

So I can see myself in deep leagues being interested in him, even though I don't see more power. I'm going to have a fair amount of shares, actually, now that I think about it, because we've become so barrel-specific, and even on the show, it's in the name. I could see people being like, well, he's not

going to have the power, and his X-slugging was below his slugging even, so, he's not going to have the power, and his X slugging was below his slugging even, so if he's only going to give me 8 to 10 homers next year and 14 steals, that's just not really what I want out of a starting position player. I will not draft him anywhere where I sort of need to start him, unless it's a pretty deep league. I will draft him in a lot of places like best ball and deeper leagues where if I could have him on my bench in NFBC,

I would feel pretty good. Because that'll help you avoid the, oh my God, I just really need a shortstop this week and there's only one shortstop out there and it's got to be that guy and I'm bidding with everybody else that wants that shortstop. Instead, if you have Rojas, you can be like,

well, I just need a batter somewhere because I'm going to put Rojas in it short. And that changes everything when it comes to free agency auction bidding formats. So Rojas' positional value gives him the highly coveted crown of pleasant surprise on the Diamondbacks. I don't know.

Going forward, we're supposed to be picking some going forward kind of looks. Maybe Seth Beer coming off of the injury. But there's some people that really expected things out of him. On the pitching side, I could see they have this group meryl kelly madison bumgarner luke weaver that all have something good you can say about them that all have had good stretches this year and been useful i would say that one of them will be like useful all year next year i think i'm leaning weaver uh but I think it could be Bumgarner too. Yeah. If I had to bet on one, it would be Weaver, even with that aforementioned home run issue.

But there's other guys that I might like better sitting on the board where you're going to take them, right? That's right in the thick of the, hey, take some flyers you really like because we're outside the top 300 overall. I think Weaver falls at least that far. I was trying to see if there's anything I liked about Humberto Mejia or Humberto Castellanos and didn't have an immediate answer on either one. I think of the two, I'm actually more interested in Castellanos. We've seen some pretty good strikeout to walk ratios from him in the minor leagues. He came out of the Houston organization, So there could be a back-end starter with a little bit of room for growth there.

So he's one of those guys. We haven't seen that much of him this year, only 40 innings at the big league level. You know, 428 ERA, 133 whip. That doesn't jump off the page, but he's holding his own. And I think that means something when we're talking about a 23-year-old. One last name I want to mention is Corbin Martin.

His problems have been mostly in the command department. And I'm not saying that he necessarily has amazing stuff, but by stuff plus it's, it's one or two it's multiple pitches. That rate is above average, just, just really bad command and command doesn't, isn't a sticky year-to-year.

So I think slightly better health, maybe better ramp up to the season, maybe a better offseason, maybe just another year of getting older and more comfortable with all his pitches. I could see Corbin McMartin being a good late pick next year. Yeah, I liked him a lot coming into this season, thinking there was a clear path for him. But yeah, just a healthy, normal offseason is a good way for him to push reset. Let's go to Colorado. Also a difficult place to find pleasant surprises, but the ballpark sort of lends itself to guys exceeding expectations.

I would say CJ Krohn has been better than I expected. People liked him and drafted him high enough where it's not like he was a great value from a fantasy perspective, but I think he's probably outperformed even the ADP that he finished with once he landed in Colorado. And I think the thing that really surprised me the most

is that the K rate compared to where it was during his time in Tampa Bay was nice and low again. 21.4%, still drawing walks at an increased rate. That was something we saw from him briefly in the shortened season before injury cut that short for him. So I'm kind of in on Krohn as someone that might be undervalued, assuming that on the one-year deal he had in Colorado, he ends up going somewhere else this winter,

and people are downgrading him for being outside of Coors Field. I think he'll actually still be pretty productive in most spots. Yeah, yeah. Brandon Rodgers, I think, is kind of a post-hype situation where it's kind of hard to call him a pleasant surprise because, again, the prospectors kind of loved him, at least some of them, coming up. There's also some rawness to his game

where he still reaches a lot and doesn't have great command of the zone, but I do like his combination of a 20% strikeout rate and good max EV, good power numbers. So I think Brendan Rodgers is going to have helium next year. And so I think it'll be hard to call him a pleasant surprise going forward either, but he's worth a note because I see him as maybe the most exciting young player on this team that has shown enough to be drafted and take advantage of next year. If he doesn't get enough helium, then go all in on him.

Because a lot of the concerns I have about his plate discipline his reach rate are concerns that matter more when he's 30 and 31 than they do at his age so i'm into that connor joe is a big pleasant surprise that i do actually think could be a pleasant surprise again next year because no one will really be into him and he'll be available everywhere and he could probably do what he did this year pro rated which is to hit 270 to 280 with really good on base percentage and 20 to 25 homers i think he could uh easily do that again next year so my my idea for uh pleasant surprise winner next year is the runner-up to pleasant surprise for this year yeah that's that's totally fine i think the sam hilliard train has finally left the station that's probably not going to happen i'm no longer holding out hope

that he's going to turn hard contact into an everyday role i think the best case scenario is still a big side platoon we know it's easy to get corner outfielders i just i don't think it's going to happen even though he's tooled up but i'm outside of like the reserve rounds of an nl only league i don't think sam hilliard ends up on a lot of my rosters next year do like that brendan rogers call but i think you're right the cost could jump up quite a bit based on what we've seen from him this season i think the appeal for me with brendan rogers is just that if he's healthy he's going to play 150 plus games he's in that sort of elite group where playing time is not going to be a problem at all. And a lot of good teams, of course, mix and match a bit more and cap guys in that 130, 140 range.

So that extra playing time, especially with half those games being in Colorado, could be worth paying a premium for depending on just how much that premium becomes. On the pitching side, I know you liked Austin Gomber before the trade, when he was a member of the Cardinals, of course. He was one of the key pieces that enabled the Cardinals to acquire Nolan Arenado from the Rockies. But I would say Gomber's first year with the Rockies was actually a success. Yeah, man.

Trying to find some useful Rockies pitchers is a tough way to make your business. You know, I think just as an aside, I think the plight of Herman Marquez this year is just indicative of how tough it is. Because I think he has, I don't know if it's cy young stuff but you know i think if he pitched for arizona uh he would have had like a 3-1 era this year uh and be like in the discussion for the cy young and that's how much of a penalty the park is i think you just keep getting proof you just cannot beat coors field in the long run it just just can't happen for a pitcher. It doesn't matter how good you are. You're not going to beat that park over a full season or if you happen to do it for a full season, you can't repeat it. It's impossible.

Remember that Kyle Freeland had figured it out? Well, the Freeland thing, I remember at the time wondering if things were different for him as someone that grew up there and had a lot more experience pitching in those conditions but at the same time that you have good enough stuff to go on the road and consistently get hitters out that was that was part of the problem with freeland i marquez would be a fascinating player to see traded anywhere trade him on any other other team, and I think you're right. I think he becomes like a 5-plus war pitcher,

and in many cases he would in fact be a Cy Young candidate. I do not think that is overstepping. Gomber, before he got traded, was going to be one of my sleepers this year. If you look at the Stuff Plus graph, it just goes up in away appearances and down at home because his best two pitches are his breaking balls which suffer in altitude they don't move as much so i i mean i almost want to take like uh i was right about austin gomber but i don't want to do that with a guy with a 4.5 era so i i don't even know what to say going forward. I will say that the one pleasant

surprise about Gomber in particular is that the command settled down. His location plus numbers are league average overall. And even his worst pitch, the four seam is at 96.6. So that's better than I thought. I thought Gombrow was going to be the kind of guy that I liked because he was in St. Louis and had two good breaking balls and was kind of wild and wasn't on people's radars. So the fact that he had league average command, that speaks a little

bit of some possibility for the future. He has enough stuff where if he was pitching for anybody else he would still be on my list. I don't even like doing the roster Rocky on the road thing because I think that they get screwed up just like the hitters. Well, yeah. I mean, imagine command.

John Gray's had weird splits where it's like, oh, no, he's better at Coors. Why would that be? That doesn't make any sense. It's just that maybe he pitches more there, so he's like figured out some way to be okay at Coors that it makes him worse on the road like that's terrible yeah yeah I don't mean terrible for us for him uh it turned into one of his better seasons but I just I don't want to roster Rocky's pitchers no matter how good they are that's just where I've been for a while I

don't think I've had Marquez on more than a team or two in the last few years. Usually it's a best ball scenario and then you're just kind of sitting there and you're like, well, even there, how many great starts is he going to have because he has to overcome that park? It's less than it should be given the talent that he has to work with. Let's go

to the Padres next, a frequently discussed team on this show. Let's say something nice about the Padres next, a frequently discussed team on this show. Let's say something nice about the Padres, which usually prior to this season was easy to do. We did that a lot on this show. I think this is a team that we generally want to like because when things are going well,

they were a lot of fun. Hopefully they get back to that level. I'm looking around at this team right now. I would say Jake Cronenworth, at least to me, was a pleasant surprise this year because I didn't think he was going to take what he did in the shortened season and hold a slash line close to that over a full season. I completely underestimated what he could do with regular playing time over a full 162. He's popped 20 homers this year. He's got pretty good plate skills. Steals a handful of bags

and can play all over. I'm wrong. I'm wrong about Jake Cronenworth, but now I'm a believer. It's kind of like the Robbie Grossman path, I guess, a little bit. Just a good eye at the plate. What he adds that Grossman doesn't quite have

is extreme contact ability and more positional versatility but you know a seven percent braille rate 110 111 max EV like it's the power seems legit the contact ability is what he was what he was supposed to have coming up but the power is what sort of pushed him into this, like, oh, he's like a legit, you know, everyday player and a good one at that. So I think he has to count because nobody's surprised about Tatis or Machado.

And I think so there was a bit of a pleasant, unpleasant surprise in Trent Grisham's downturn, but I still have a lot of faith in him going forward. So he might be my pleasant surprise for next year pick. Yeah, I think there's still a lot to like about him. He's a little bit younger than you think too. He turns 25 in November. I was wondering,

and it's not really just because I'm a Brewer fan. I think about things like this after the fact anyway, but the Brewers were getting destroyed for that trade throughout last season. Eric Lauer has looked pretty good this year. Obviously, Luis Urias is starting to do some of the things we were expecting him to do as a prospect a few years ago. That trade looks a little closer to even now. It's at least not a laugher anymore in favor of the Padres based on how this season has unfolded. Yeah, and actually what's interesting to me

is that Eric Lauer's extra year of team control ended up being pretty meaningful in that trade. You know what I mean? That's actually the thing that's probably the hardest on San Diego right now. They could have used Ericic lauer pretty hardcore this year you know just another starter uh in this year extra year of control that would have really really helped them i think in general grisham is something they needed more in terms

of a center fielder um with his kind of eye and stuff so i i think they're still happy with the trade uh and i think that grisham will be better going forward and that part might favor um san diego still even though it doesn't look great right now uh because grisham's kind of had a back uh you know took a step back but having eric lauer would have meant a lot for the padres right now it could have been a big deal in that second half when all their people were falling down around them. It would assume that they would have to

have gotten Eric Lauer to the same place, pitching-wise, that the Brewers did. That's true. There have been some changes. The cutter has been pitched. Eric Lauer has thrown a bit more here in the second half of the season. That's a big part of some of the success he's starting to have. He's just really not really throwing his fastballs.

He's just throwing everything but a fastball at this point. He's just trying the slow, slower, slower approach. It's working for him. There are actually a lot of players you could choose for pleasant surprises for next year. Grisham, I think, would certainly count if people say, well, he's already shown us enough in the shortened season. Luis Camposano is going to be a good player. I'm convinced as a hitter. He had a great year

at AAA. I think it's an area of need. Austin Nola is a nice story. He's not a bad player, but I think depending on what they do at first base, they may have a spot they float a little bit. Obviously, we could get the universal DH as well. I'm not worried about playing time for Campusano. I think he comes up next year again and gets the bulk of the playing time, at least a two-thirds sort of a share by season's end for him

behind the plate. I think he's an impact bat behind the plate, which is difficult to find. For all the hype there will be on Kiebert Ruiz, who I think you and I both like, there's going to be a ton of adp helium to reflect that there won't be nearly as much interest in camp usano and those two players are probably more similar as hitters than their price will reflect that's interesting i'm not sure i have the exact same read because i think nola's numbers were suppressed by some injury concerns and if he's fully healthy, he's still wearing a brace right now,

or he was a week ago. So I think that Nola could be a present surprise for next year as he gets fully healthy. And that might delay Campy's debut in the major leagues just because people slow walk catchers a lot, and Nola, if he's fully healthy in spring, will be like, well, he's the season backstop that knows what you have to do on a daily basis

to win at the major league level. Whereas Campy still has to learn a fair amount of that stuff. So that would be my read on it but i do think that capisano will be a good player so uh and that he's close so that's i mean i agree with that part of that for sure on the pitching side i i kind of think i've said this before but i think chris paddock could be a pleasant surprise next year um just a couple tweaks to the curve or maybe re-debuting the cutter. You still see a lot of great command. You still see two good above-average pitches by Stuff when it comes to his change.

Actually, the curveball is now average to above-average. So just a little bit of a step forward there, and I think we could be talking about Paddock the same way we did in his rookie season. Yeah, I could see that happening. I mean, I think Blake Snell's second half gives me some hope that he can be Blake Snell again, too. I would imagine he's tinkering away in the offseason trying to find more options to work with, especially given that part of what made him so appealing to the Padres, I think, when they traded for him was that he could be a four-pitch starter. At least it looked like he'd be a four-pitch starter,

and he could turn that lineup over a third time consistently. He's had a lot of success ditching pitches so far, but I think he has to add pitches back if he's going to sustain some of the gains that we saw from him in July, August, and September. Let's go to who's going to be second in the NL West. The order is supposed to be based on standings. Let's go Dodgers. I don't think it's a hot take at this point.

The Giants have a lead. So at least at this point in time, the Dodgers are second place in the NL West. A pleasant surprise on this team. Usually they have a whole bunch of them and it's a star heavy roster. So everything kind of feels like low-hanging fruit, but who's really kind of exceeded your expectations for this group this season? I don't know, Blake Trinan?

You know, we always knew he had a great sinker, but this year he added a slider. He added movement to his slider, you know, sideways movement, which is a piece I have somewhere in my brain, if not the hopper, about how they've added a ton of sideways movement to at least three or four sliders over the course of this year. Mitch White and Blake Trinan are among those.

I think it was the missing piece to make him a dominant closer. Because, yes, he always had the turbo sinker, but you could see people kind of start to key in on the sinker. And he was kind of looking for that next piece. And he tried the foreseam. He tried the cutter. But this version of his breaking ball makes him the best version that he's been. And he has pretty nasty stuff to begin with.

breaking ball makes him the best version that he's been. And he has pretty nasty stuff to begin with. So I'd expect trying to get a lot of the highest leverage opportunities in the post season. And maybe Jansen still get some saves, but trying and we'll have faced the better hitters in the bigger moment. So I think that's something that's happening right now. And I don't know what that means for next year in terms of if trinan is the closer the capital c they always come back and jansen somehow the closer again but jansen is a free agent i believe yeah this might finally be the end of the kenley

jansen era in los angeles can we count max muncy as a pleasant surprise and that he lowered his k rate again yeah i mean 20 205% K rate for Max Muncy. I didn't think that was coming. I thought the year-over-year improvements from 18 to 20, I thought that was, okay, yeah, sure, a mid-20s K rate. Max Muncy, that's who he is. Nope, 20.5%. It's the best of any season he's had with the Dodgers so far.

I think he flashed this back in that brief time he spent with Oakland in 2016. That really doesn't count because we're talking about only 133 plate appearances. This is another level that I just simply didn't expect Muncy to reach. The power is comparable to what we've seen in the past, but this is really the best version of him yet that we've seen as a hitter.

Yeah, I think in a similar way, Chris Taylor deserves some love because he had shown all these pieces that he's showing this year before, but rarely all together at the same time. The steals total is his second best. The power total is his second best. His batting average is as decent as it always is, and the playing time will probably end up being second best in his career. So there might have been a little bit of a downturn in some of his batted ball stats, and you might have thought that in some ways the decline was starting to come because his strikeout rate was never going down, but at 31 he had one of his best seasons and he might end up being a pleasant surprise on another team sometime in the future because he's a free agent also and like kike

hernandez before maybe more of his abilities poured over than people expect yeah i do think taylor has been a consistently underrated player for a few years now, and I'm curious to see what free agency will bring for him. I would imagine the Dodgers would be interested in bringing him back, but it might not work with all the other pieces. And part of Taylor leaving might be Gavin Lux playing all over the place. It might not be Gavin Lux has a place to call his own in 2022. It might be he's a left-handed version of those guys where they're just going to move him to two or three different spots. Because their former director of analytics

proved that having a guy like that can give you one or two extra wins, they're definitely always going to have someone like Chris Taylor. Yeah, the question is, is it Chris Taylor? It's not. Who's the next one? Zach McKinstry, for a moment, looked like he might have a profile that could push him into a role like that someday. I kind of think it might be Lux.

It's kind of an interesting idea. But they will lose so much money off their payroll and yet still have a lot of money on the payroll. But I think actually the luxury tax number for them right now for next year is $148 million, which is a lot, but it gives them, against this year, it gives them $140 million. But if they want to stay under whatever the luxury tax is when it's set, it'll still give them $ or 70 million to spend. I expect them to,

what do you expect them to do? I expect them to sign Corey Seager or what was it? Story. Who's the other story? Korea, Korea. I expect them to sign Korea or, or Corey Seager to play shortstop.

And I kind of expect them to extend Kershaw. But maybe they instead extend Scherzer. I think they should try to keep Scherzer because why would you bet against that guy? If you do those things and don't extend Kershaw, you still have a ton of money. Even if you extend Kershaw, you probably only have sort of $20-30 million to spend on relief and whatever this sort of Chris Taylor option is.

In which case, I think maybe Chris Taylor becomes too expensive because I think Chris Taylor will get a deal starting at $10-15 million a year. Could he get $4 and $60? Yeah, I think he could. In which case, if you're the Dodgers and you do that, then you're out of the Jansen bidding and you're just going to try and find some pitchers for the bullpen, which, I mean, they do that all the time. That's a total possibility for them.

Yeah, they have no problem finding relievers and developing relievers. And they'll have Trinan to be, you know, ostensibly the other closer. I guess there is one other pleasant surprise, though, with the Dodgers. Albert Pujols. I thought it was ridiculous when the Dodgers picked him up. I think most people did. In my face. I realize he's not playing every day. It's mostly a pinch-hit role, but just the fact that he's stayed on the roster, he's come through when they've needed him to. Clearly, a guy that's loved around the clubhouse when you see shots of Pujols in the dugout there's usually

someone there talking his ear off and it just looks like it's a good fit I didn't see that coming at all not because I didn't think Pujols could be a good fit in the clubhouse I just thought that it was done even as a part-time player I didn't see any path for him to stick, especially on a roster that good. Yeah, because the walks have gone. Even though he does hit, still hits the ball hard, the players get to play him basically on the outfield cutout grass all the way around the infield. So basically there's a no singles.

I mean, yeah, there's a no singles defense mean there's a yeah there's a no singles defense on him so he doesn't get the singles he doesn't get the walks he's basically all doubles or homers at this point i mean he's not going to get a triple for you so no it's a it's amazing that that he's four percent better than league average with that kind of limitations at the plate. So yes, that counts. Yeah. I did not see it coming whatsoever. Next year, though? Oh, it's got to be done, right?

No, I mean next year is pleasant surprise. Oh, yeah. I thought you were asking about Pujols' future. I'm like, what? Could it be a reliever? I mean, I'm still a believer in Lux. I don't think that's any sort of hot take. I think more playing time is still going to help there.

Yeah, it could be Lux. Maybe it is a guy like Zach McKinstry. I mean, Sheldon Noisy has been there for a little while now. Maybe he's... I want to see what he did in the minors this year because I kept waiting for him to get opportunities and come up and provide some power. So he's been at a 103 WRC+.

A little old for the love. No, it's not going to be... I mean, it could be Noisy as an NL-only league guy. I don't think he's the next Chris Taylor or anything like that. Tony Gonsolin finding his command and having a good season. Being healthier I think would be a big part for Gonsolin. I could see that being the path for them to have. I like Mitch White too.

I mentioned that they added sweep to his slider. And that was a big deal for him. So I think that the White could be a decent pitcher next year yeah i like that he starts with 94.5 velo you know yeah plenty there for him to work with let's go to the giants who are just a pleasant surprise team award yeah just give the give everybody a trophy on on that team i mean i mean you could almost pick any player on the roster and go, oh, yeah, that guy did do more than I expected. Narrowing it down to one seems pretty tough.

I mean, you could say, this is a version of Brandon Crawford we never thought we'd see again, or this is the version of Buster Posey we never thought we'd see again, or you could go to someone like Lamont Wade Jr. and say that he plays all over the place and he might finish with 20 homers. Darren Ruff has been good i mean the mixing the matching we've talked

about that a lot throughout this season they have done a lot of things really well so i don't know which way you prefer to go with these types of awards and conversations but you can choose a player from just about any different player type that you want because they have one that ticks every box. Yeah, yeah. I mean, even Wilbur Flores, you know, 260 average, 18 homers, part-time play, 12% better than the league average. It's pretty amazing. I don't know.

I don't know. I guess it does actually test the limits of our format here. It's like, what is the usefulness at this point? How about this? Let's flip it on its head for the Giants. Who keeps most of their gains next year? Who do I actually trust for next year? I mean,

I love the belts about to hit 30 homers, but there's been so many injuries for him. I feel like that. I, I just don't know. I feel like that knee could go at any time. Yeah. He's had a lot of injuries, a couple of concussions too.

So just to unfortunately elevated health risk there. I think of the old hitters, and I guess that group is just like Belt Crawford, Posey, and we can say Longoria is part of that too. I think Posey is the one that I actually trust the most to sustain his 2021 level into the future. And it's not to say that the rest are all going to fall apart, but if you said you can only pick one who you think is most likely, which is kind of what you did, Buster Posey is my choice. I think I agree with you.

I just love his combination of power and strikeout rate. I did want to point out one thing that came up. It was interesting. You might have noticed that brandon crawford has had a little bit of a difference in his first and second half splits this year his iso in the first half was 267 and the second half was 169 he's made up for it by making more contact and he's been like a bit of a more spray single hitter type deal in the second half. However, for his career, somebody was pointing out that Crawford often flags in the second half,

and I was listening to an interview of Isaiah Kainer-Falefa on MLB Network, and he was talking about how um when he's at third base he feels like he can completely focus on hitting and he can let it all loose and there's more you know offensively there's there's more power in there uh because when he's playing shortstop there's a lot more stopping and starting and and sprints and it's it's just a more demanding thing on defense and the reason that that stuck with me is when he said that phrase stopping and starting one of the things that i heard from someone who works in injury prevention at the major league level was that stopping and starting you know physically at a defensive position is something that they actually have metrics on, that they

track, because that is very fatigue-inducing. And so depending on, they'll actually track that in infield practice and during games and try to have an ongoing sense of how often a player has stopped and started in terms of just running you know um and that that leads to their fatigue metrics for his career brandon crawford goes from a 157 iso to 142 in the second half 100 wrc plus in the first half 94 in the second that kind of goes along with that narrative that this local person was saying was saying like you know he he falls apart in the second half a little bit because of the rigors of the position. It's a long-winded way of saying, what if Brant Crawford doesn't play shortstop all next year? What if they sign a shortstop?

Maybe you should feel better about him offensively as a second baseman. Right, and I think you've talked about the way the giants shift at least i remember you showing uh you showed me an example we were we're out having a beer and you had like did you pepper shakers and salt shakers what were you using you turned tommy listella into a salt shaker yeah but the way they they ask their second baseman to be positioned yeah it's not nearly as rigorous i mean you could say, up the middle pre-shift, sure, second base could have been almost as rigorous as playing shortstop. I think in the typical alignment of most teams today,

it's more like playing third base than playing shortstop. That's why you see Max Muncy playing second and Mike Moustakas playing second. Right. Because of what they can do with their placement. So anyway, I just think that was an asterisk because I do actually believe in Brandon Crawford swing change. And I,

and I think, you know, he really unlocked some power that could be interesting going forward with his given ability to make contact. And, you know, even at 35 next year, I think he's athletic enough to play,

even if it ends up. And the reason I'm saying this, because I think, yes, anybody who's listening, I think he's a good defensive shortstop and somebody who thought it was enough to play even if it ends up and the reason i'm saying this because i i think yes anybody's listening i think he's a good defensive shortstop and somebody thought it was weird of me to uh to push back and say you know he's he's still an excellent defensive shortstop people like of course but even on the day he signs his extension gabe capler had to field questions of will he stay at the position? Because it's just a fact that we don't have 34 and 35 year old shortstops anymore. You know, he's the only one

and it's two years to the next youngest, next oldest. So I think it's a fair thing to wonder how long he'll play at shortstop and how that will go hand-in-hand with his offense because i think if he was the second baseman next year if he told me he's the second baseman next year my projection for him would be uh 280 uh with uh you know 20 20 plus homers 22 homers or something uh and you know three to five steals as a shortstop i can I think it'd be better to project him for like 260 average, 18 homers, two to three steals. If we use the Goldilocks scale for the general ADPs and pricing of the veteran giants going into next season, do you think it's going to be- Because Crawford will not be drafted. That's why I wanted to bring him up. Yeah. In like 12s, I think he still could be somewhat ignored.

As a group, do you think that the market's going to get it right? Or do you think it's going to overprice these guys based on these bounce backs? Or do you think it's going to underprice them because of skepticism about them because of their age? I mean, judging from Twitter and how many references to steroids I've gotten, that's, I haven't heard that in a while. I mean, but there's, there's definitely, you know, a contingent that anytime you write about the giants, you're like, well, I wonder how they did it. And it's like, well, I don't think it's that, but I guess it's a possibility we have to grapple with in baseball in general, but I just don't think it's that. I think that there will be a fair amount of people

denigrating Giants and not drafting them. Posey, I figure, will have the highest ADP of the group. I'm leaving Bryant out of it just because we don't know where he'll be. Yeah, I think he's a little bit younger than these guys anyway, so he's kind of separate. As far as the breakthrough hitters,, that's the Wade, Estrada, we can throw Duggar and those types of players in there. Do you have any one of those guys that you have more confidence in than the rest going forward? Wade.

Yeah, Wade looks kind of legit. Yeah, he's got good eye. The barrel rate might regress. And if you do the on pace for with him and prorate out his stats you'd be like whoa you know uh he he could have like 25 homers and 12 steals next year or whatever 10 steals i i'm not so sure there's a lot of like judicious using using of him where they didn't use him against lefties for a long time um and then i also think that it's possible the barrel rate regresses a little bit to his previous norms.

He did talk to me about a swing change that he made to try and unlock that power. And I could see it. He's also of the little bit older age. I mean, for what we know of him, I think people will think that he's like 23, 24. He's 27. So there's a fair amount of possibility

that that was his peak season. So I don't know. I'll have to, we'll have to do the projections and see where he lines up and see where he gets drafted. If people ignore him, I'll pick him up. In OBP leagues, I'll pick him up. If people draft him thinking they're

going to get 25 and 10 out of him and they're and that's their projection for him i might uh might not might not reach that price for me yeah i'm generally going to be careful with the older guys i'm posies the one that which is all of them mean, that's what I'm saying. Wade is 27. He's the young guy and he's old. Yeah, but if Wade is outside the top 250, I'm definitely interested in that range. I don't know if he's going to get much higher than that because there's going to be some uncertainty about his role going into next season.

Yeah, and that's a funny thing too. You were talking about the Brendan Rodgers. Brendan Rodgers will be plug and go. The Giants will rob you of plate appearances, and that'll be difficult. And that makes them almost more streamers. I ended up with Wade on my bench some weeks because I just wasn't sure how much he'd play.

If you look at the leader in plate appearances right now, it's Brandon Crawford at 524, which makes sense because he's playing short and they don't really have a good backup shortstop. But second place is Micah Stremski at 513, and they're the only ones over 500. That's kind of crazy. So they will rob you of plate appearances, man. You've got to be careful with them because plate appearances are gold. I wonder how much of that has also been a part of why they've had a lot of success. Rob, you have plate appearances, man. You've got to be careful with them because plate appearances are gold.

I wonder how much of that has also been a part of why they've had a lot of success, aside from other tactical things they're doing and the different techniques and things. Rest has to be a part of this. Their injury prevention is... They've at least put a lot of money into it. In terms of how good it is, I don't know because they've still gotten hurt,

but they're also super old. And on top of that, injury prevention and sort of medical like that, nobody wants to talk about it. You get little whispers here and there and it's very hard to get anybody to open up about it because I think it legit is one of those places where some teams are just way

ahead of others. Yeah, the Giants only have four players with at least 65 runs scored, and this is the best offense in the National League. And I know runs scored aren't the be-all end-all. It's just, again, quantifying how much it hurts you in that category. RBIs, they have two over 60, just Crawford and Yastrzemski, the guys that play the most. So you do have to be very mindful of that. It hurts you a lot less with a guy like Posey because a lot of catchers rotate and share time. I think that's part of where my extra interest in him comes from as

well. Let's close it out with one team in the NL Central. That'll leave us nine for our episode on Wednesday. I'm confident we can do nine teams in one episode. No, not really, but I'm just pretending to be. That'll be our hour-half-long episode as we close out.

We'll be closing out for the regular season before our dailies, right? I think we're doing Friday, but then we're off Monday unless there's a 163. I'm kind of regretting joining Team Entropy on Friday, knowing that it's going to make me have to do more work if there's a game 163.

Told you, it's Monday. Team Entropy, baby. I've got the ass, so I'll be fine. I'll be fine by the weekend, I promise. But let's say nice things about a pirate. He's got a killer YouTube cry on up right now. Yeah, let's say nice things about a pirate. Let's try anyway.

It's good to be nice, and Brian Reynolds is a really good player. He is. That's about it. That's endless. I mean, this is a team, much like the Diamondbacks, they did not have a lot go right over the course of this season. Is it fair to give

can we give them Tyler Anderson's success? Can we say, well, Tyler Anderson was there most of the year, so that was a pleasant surprise. It was good enough to get him traded to a team that's actually still contending for a wild card. And so he's no longer on the team that he wins the award for. I mean, he led the team in war, and he was a model win for Pitching Plus, which liked his number of pitches and his command of them.

And he was generally very useful for me over the course of the season. I don't think he was someone I started has been a pleasant surprise that has been very useful for some people after Richard Rodriguez left. I don't know. The thing about Reynolds is, yeah, I think Reynolds has to take the crown. He has to. This was a really good season, and I think it perfectly ties into what we were just saying.

I think some people thought he'd be a decent player, but I don't think people thought he would have five wins. 3, 6, 9, 12. There are 12 outfielders, 12 outfield-eligible players who have earned more than Brian Reynolds this season. So it's not a lot. You've got them right there lumped in with J.D. Martinez and Mitch Hanager. Adam Duvall's up there too. There's your other kind of random

pleasant surprise that we've talked about, I think, a little bit on this pod. I mean, but I think Brian Reynolds, easily inside the top 75 overall, going into 2022, and it goes back to what we were saying with the Giants, he's going to play every single day. You're going to get

runs. You're going to get RBIs. The average floor is nice and high, and the power looks legit too, and he brings non-zero steals. He'll get you maybe four to six bags again next year too. I think he's probably set to repeat everything, but maybe batting average. I mean, it's interesting that he has basically the same barrel rate

that he had this year that he had basically the same barrel rate that he has this year that he had last year when he had a terrible year and a 168 iso and um you know everyone thought he was just a flash in the pan from 2019 so uh i think that uh he legit is a 200 iso guy um and uh i think think that he's going to make more contact than the league average. And he's going to walk a lot. So I think he's going to be at the top of the lineup. And I don't think that they are going to play those games

that they play in San Francisco and steal at-bats from you. He has 625 plate appearances this year. And I would think that he could cross over 600 again again next year so even though the team won't be good and they won't create a lot of run and rbi chances for him the volume would be there and he will probably outrun or rbi or maybe both any giant next year in just like a strange uh twist of the numbers and how things work you know what i mean not saying the pirates will be better than the Giants. I wonder if Reynolds is more of like a true talent,

330, 100, 100 guy who in the right park and lineup would easily reach those numbers. And because of PNC and his supporting cast, we get what we get, which is still very good. Yeah, yeah. I think Parks can steal on the order of two or three homers from a from a player over the course of the season then you could you could have a park that sort of augments it instead of suppressing it so uh the the max

ev is good the barrel rate is good the reach rate is good the strikeout rate is good he's 27 i don't i don't see a reason uh to to fade him next year same logic i think applies to kebrian hayes for next year i think i've already put this take out there but i will have a lot of kebrian hayes in 2022 because he will play every day his defense is great the hit tool is legit he's going through the adjustment phase right now, but I'm definitely interested in Brian Hayes. What I would assume will be a non-top 200 overall pick. I don't think he's going to go inside that group at all. He might even fall outside the top 300 in the early part of draft season, so I am absolutely in on Hayes. I didn't have a podcast, so I wouldn't say this so many times so that I would have more of a chance of actually getting him because I feel like we might cause some problems in that regard. But we cannot, either one of us, not profess our love for Brian Hayes. And I think one of the reasons is with the established walk,

strikeout rates, defense, and base running that he brings to the table, and the fact that, like you say, he's going to play every day. I think the floor is something about what he's doing right now. 260 with maybe more bulk, so 260, 15 homers, 15 stolen bases. That is totally fine and will be a top-level third baseman, like a top 12 to top 15 third baseman, and that's his floor. But the superstar ceiling is still there. And my evidence for that is a max EV that was second on the team at 111, a hard hit rate of 45%, and a barrel rate of 5%, which is not great. It's above average, but it's not great. People do take steps forward. People do change their barrel rate. And if he can just convert a little bit more of that hard hit rate

into balls that have some loft, you could see this guy really take off. And I still see MVP-type ceiling on this guy. I'm still really in the tank for Brian Hayes. I think MVP level is that's a really high ceiling i those would be like that'd be like 90 80 80 90th percentile outcomes yeah but what do you want out of an mvp is somebody who can do everything uh and there's no flaw in his game and the only flaw in his game right now is converting raw power into game power and that's i mean that's doable, I think.

Hit the ball in the air a little bit more and good things can happen for Cabrian Hayes. I'm curious to see if they bring up any of their prospects reasonably early in the year. You know, O'Neal Cruz or Nick Gonzalez, I think would be guys that maybe we'll see at some point next year. I mean, that will help the sporting cast a bit too.

I'm a little surprised that Nick Gonzalez has been at high A all season. I thought maybe they'd push him to double A as a guy that played college ball. I don't know if they'd be pleasant surprises, though. You know, the scouting community really likes them. If we want a scouting community pleasant surprise, I think that would be Rodolfo Castro, who I don't, you know, there are no scouting

grades on him at Fangraphs oh no here he is he's 40 plus so a guy with raw power no hit tool and some speed according to them and the 29% strikeout rate doesn't

go very far in proving them wrong but a 112.5 max EV, 10% barrel rate. If you've seen the body on this guy, he kind of looked like a mini version of Starling Marte. And if he makes any strides, he had way lower strikeout rates in the minor leagues. So if he makes any strides on the strikeout rate,

Rodolfo Castro could be... I talked to some people around the team that thought he would be their second baseman of the future so rodolfo castro one on the pitching side that i still like miguel yajure he's been down in velocity a little bit this year he's been dealing with an arm injury but it's a deep arsenal with command becomes the winner healthy looks good in the spring i could see him ending up being one of their pleasant surprises on the pitching side. But hey, we did it. We said some nice things about the Pirates,

which they have a bright future. It just seems like it's more like two and three years away as opposed to just around the corner next season. And in some ways, it can be more profitable than chasing around the Dodgers and Giants, where you can convince yourself,

oh, these are veterans, they're projectable. I know what I'm doing. I'm getting the boring vet, but the Dodgers and Giants are constantly working against you, you getting all the plate appearances you want. If a guy is above average on a bad team, then he gets all the playing time he wants. Kevin Newman got 533 plate appearances for the Giants this year. I mean, for the Pirates this year. What would that have been on the Giants? Number one?

Yeah. So, I mean, there was an article about Phil Dussault done by... Travis Sochik. Travis Sochik over at The Score. Thank you. That Jeff Zimmerman has been pointing to me how great a season is Jeff Zimmerman himself has been having a pretty good fantasy season

and one of his biggest tenets is how important the plate appearance and the innings pitched are they just rack up all the county totals for you of course you want to do it with quality, but that's an interesting thing to think about

when you're looking at potential value picks on those last two teams that we did in terms of the Giants and the Pirates. Yeah, Phil's having an amazing season. Jeff is going to win mixed-out wars again among some other leagues, but I'm glad that the thing that they are harping on is something that I've very slowly come to realize

that especially with everybody working out the same sets of projections, if you can project playing time better than the other people in the room and be right about it, there you go. Like that's going to give you that edge that you're looking for. It does offer some hope to the people

who aren't creating their own values and are going in with the same values as other people. I think the plus one on somebody you like is very important because what you're actually doing there is just saying, I think he's going to be a little bit better than these projections and he's going to play more. So that's the way that you can add value as a sort of a mini scout, as someone who's watching the game, you can take the projections and say, okay, this is the baseline. This is like,

this is what the numbers say, but I've seen this player. And for whatever reason, I think he's going to take a step forward. Or I've seen this other player that he's battling with for playing time and I think he's gonna he's gonna take the lion's share of that of that playing time so I think the plus one minus one is a decent way for for people to sort of approximate that projecting IP and played appearances because all you're doing when you're projecting played appearances and IP are trying to project roles. You're trying to say who's going to play more. You know, you can do, you can do that at home too,

with your own brain. I think that's what makes good players, great players. If they can do it consistently, we are going to go before we go, you can get 50% off subscription to the athletic at the athletic.com slash rates and barrels. If you're enjoying this podcast on a platform that allows you to rate and review it,

greatly appreciate that. Don't let the haters win. If you're watching us on YouTube, hit the like button, be sure to subscribe to the channel to get a notification. Anytime that we go live during the post season, again, starting on Tuesday,

the fourth, that's the Tuesday, 1130 AM Eastern, 830 AM Pacific time. We'll be going live with these episodes. And of course they'll appear as pods soon after that so be sure to check that out if you're not already watching us on youtube i think that live is a kind of an oliver branch a little bit to uh you know to those that might

have wanted us to do the night before uh because by doing it live you you don't have to wait for the production time you can actually just uh just check in and therefore it'll be quicker. It's also way better for our mental health being. So we could do the night thing and then you just get us, all three of us having the ass every night. So maybe rather let us have some sleep and do it and come have some coffee with us

in the morning and do it live. Please, please bring coffee. Bring some for me too. That's the other. Oh, rates and barrels coffee mugs, but a rates and barrels coffee roast would be incredible. Oh, I got to get a coffee. Where can I get something like that?

Anyway, I'll figure that out at some other point. It'd be funny to have a rates and barrel coffee mug where it said something about quit having the ass. Coffee is the main reason why I about quit having the ass. Coffee's the main reason why I don't have the ass every day. It's a really important part of my day. Clearly, I have not had it yet. It's afternoon coffee day, so as soon as we're done recording, I'm going to walk over to the coffee shop and get myself a nice little iced Americano because I feel like I've earned it today. Yes, you have.

I appreciate your support. We appreciate all of your support as well on Twitter. He's at Eno Saris. I am at Derek Van Riper. That's going to wrap things up for this episode of Rates and Barrels. We're back with you on Wednesday. Thanks for listening..