Rates & Barrels - 2021 Pleasant Surprises, Part 4

Episode Date: September 29, 2021

Eno and DVR wrap up their pleasant surprises series with the rest of the NL Central and the entire NL East.  Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarris Follow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiper e-mail: [e-mail] Subscribe to the Rates & Barrels YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/c/RatesBarrels Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Welcome to Rates and Barrels, presented by Topps. Check out Topps Project 70, celebrating 70 years of Topps baseball cards. Derek Van Ryper, Eno Saris here with you. It is Wednesday, September 29th. Today, we say goodbye to our Pleasant Surprises series. It is part four of an ongoing series we've been doing since last week, going team by team, digging into some of the more pleasant surprises from this season and trying to make our first attempt to find some pleasant surprises for the future. So we are going to dig into the remaining teams in the NL Central and the entire NL East over the course of this episode. We knocked out the Pirates in our last episode, Part 3, so we begin one spot above them with the Cubs. And I didn't think they'd be quite this bad, even if they moved on from most of that core that

led them to the World Series. And I keep looking at this team and wondering, what are they really going to do in the offseason? Because when you boil it down, the Cubs' most pleasant surprises are guys like Frank Schwindel and Patrick Wisdom. We talked about our preferences between those two, which profile we'd bet on in the future in a previous episode because of the K rate. It's Schwindel. But then there's also like Rafael Ortega. And is this a team that's going to be actually aggressive

with the second-tier free agents and trying to patch together something that is at least somewhat competitive going into 2022? Or is this Cubs roster going to be a land of opportunity where it's guys like those three and maybe a few other minor league free agents and pillow contract guys all trying to carve out major league opportunities while they go through a longer rebuild? I would think that it would just be a shame if they kind of go dark and try to do the Astros rebuild. They're trying to build their own TV network.

You know, they're trying to make up for pretty significant losses during COVID. They are going to be so cheap next year. Right now on Fangraphs, the to be so cheap next year. Right now on Fangraphs, the luxury tax estimate for next year is $59 million. The only salaried players they will have under contract are Jason Hayward, Kyle Hendricks, and David Bodie. And David Bodie will be paid $2.5 million. Wow.

Wow. it does have some meaning for the guys that have come in and played in the meantime. And we have plenty of pleasant surprises for this team because there was so much opportunity in the second half. And they went and found, as we detailed on this podcast, a bunch of guys that had good max exit velo. And they pretty much all capitalized on that raw power when given the chance so the one problem i have is i put a new number on my leaderboards for this discussion and uh age is that category that number And all of the guys that they added are old. Yeah.

Schwindel, Wisdom, Rafael Ortega. They're not 24 and 25-year-olds getting those first chances. They're guys that are in their late 20s. I think Ortega is even 30, isn't he? I mean, this is a... He's 30. Schwindel's 29. Wisdom is 29.

You wouldn't... He's 30. Schwindel's 29. Wisdom is 29. It took them so long to get here, too, that you would expect them not to have long careers into their late 30s either. So these guys are, I feel, two- to three-year players. I think they'd be lucky to fill out a fill out a five year uh to or to get to the end of their arbitration years you know so i think interesting and good and useful while they're cheap and to various degrees um i think that they have some staying power we did have a whole kind of episode about this where we talked about maybe liking schwindel the most we did not talk much about ortega who fits kind of in between uh wisdom and schwindel in the

spectrum where he does not have the strikeout problems that wisdom has uh but he also doesn't have the barrel and hard hit rates uh that schwindel does. But he also has more speed and perhaps more defensive value. So I think Ortega and Schwindel will stick around. Bodie is cheap and still hits the ball hard. So at the very least, you think of him as maybe a backup second baseman, third baseman. You're going to put Madrigal in there at second base and Nico Horner at short, I guess. And if they don't spend any money, that's your infield for the Cubs is Bodie, Horner, Madrigal, Schwindel. The outfield will be

The outfield will be Ortega. Your star of the team will be Ian Happ. And they'll fill in somebody in right field. I guess Hayward will still be there because he's due some money. Yeah, so a lot hinges on whether or not they trade Wilson Contreras to you. I guess it really is like Contreras and Happ and then just a bunch of pieces around them. I think it depends on how much you believe in Nick Madrigal as a guy that's going to hit big league pitching in the long run and whether or not you believe Nico Horner could develop some power.

I would say those two guys, Madrigal, fewer questions about him because he's shown a little bit of it in the big leagues already. And Horner, they can move around a little bit. This is something that Zahadif Sharma and Brett Taylor were talking about on the Cubs podcast on to Waveland earlier this week. They can go out and get whatever they want that feels discounted and just shift a few pieces around because nothing is written in ink.

That includes Ian Happ too. Happ's going to play, but whether he plays a corner or a place. Happ can play different places. Corner, he can even play second, I think, still. Yeah. That's the one nice thing about this. It's kind of a blank slate. Yeah. Corner, he can even play second, I think, still. Yeah. You know, so, you know, yeah. That's the one nice thing about this is it's kind of a blank slate. Even Horner and Madrigal, you know, they could maybe just share second. I mean, it's not like they're both cheap,

and it's not like you're 100% on either, you know. I mean, Horner got 170 trips to the plate this year and didn't hit a single homer. He could end up being the utility guy. So, yeah, they can push guys out of the way. My pick for pleasant surprise, I mean, we could pick a pleasant surprise. I just, this is kind of well-traveled for us

in terms of we talked about all these players. I think we might both pick Schwindel or something. I don't know. But I think more interesting is who's the pleasant surprise next year. And my pick, I think, is Ian Happ. Because I think the.225 batting average of the 101 WRC Plus don't tell the full story of his full season. And I think that, you know, we'll see what the projections look like,

but I think there's a little bit of chance of a breakout where he puts it all together. He'll be 27 next year. He's had his ups and downs. The second half was very different from the first half for him this year, and I think there is one last gear for Ian Happ, and that could make him a pretty good value next year in terms of fantasy baseball. Yeah, I'm on board for an Ian Happ rebound, and playing time, piling up counting stats is definitely a reason enough to be interested in him at what I will

assume is a very discounted price. Albert Alzalea on the pitching side, I think, took a few steps forward this year. It's 123 and two thirds innings as we speak on this Wednesday. So in terms of workload restrictions for next year, I'd assume he's got a very clear path to be a starter all year. We could see him throw probably 170 or so innings. So not much of a drop compared to some of the other arms that we're going after earlier. I think the only real skills issue we're seeing right now is home runs. He had that problem in 2019. He showed that problem again in 2021. And I think we still need a more consistent third offering for him to really thrive and be a guy that can push six innings on a consistent basis.

But even as a two-pitch guy, I think he could be pretty useful and maybe end up being the Cubs' best starter, depending on what happens with Kyle Hendricks and a possible bounce back for him next season. Yeah, a cutter started appearing in the second half and it replaced the curveball, which is good because this curveball is not good. And so if you're talking about a guy who's cutter, slider, foreseam, he has some upside there given that he can locate the four seam okay the slider is a really good pitch by by stuff and the cutter looks like an average pitch so that would give him a three pitch mix I'd be excited about I also just see that despite the home run issue his location plus on the year is 102 so he's been putting pitches in decent places i would i would assume that the home run issue comes from being a

two pitch pitcher so if he can fit if he feature that cutter more or the change up which looks good by stuff and location um i i could see him kind of avoiding that homer issue a little bit next year also homers in small samples are possibly the least informative stat I don't mean to say he did not have a homer issues this year I'm just saying that after 123 innings we still don't know what his true talent home run per nine number is. Yeah, and I think I see some shades of Freddy Peralta here too, maybe just because two pitches initially, flashes of success, a stint in the bullpen, all those kinds of things.

It doesn't mean he's going to get to the Peralta top 10 level. Good strikeout rates, bad homer rates. Yeah, Freddy had a walks issue too that he has fixed over time. So I would say Alzalea is the pitcher that I like the most if you get past Hendricks. I think Hendricks will bounce back, by the way. I think we talked about that on a previous episode as well. Let's stay in the NL Central for a bit and let's talk about a Reds team that should have been higher in the standings and shouldn't be the second team up after the Cubs in this conversation.

The Reds had some pleasant surprises, and I think the hardest thing for me about this team is I thought they really were good enough to make the playoffs, and they collapsed against a weak schedule in the second half. I don't know how much they're going to be willing to spend this offseason to fix their flaws. We'll probably get into that more this winter, but I think it's really encouraging after some injury plague seasons in the minors that Jonathan India might win the National League Rookie of the Year award. I would say he probably tops the list of surprises, but not that far behind him. Kyle

Farmer settling in as an everyday shortstop over the second half of the season, I didn't see that coming at all. As far as India goes, how much are you buying into the overall results that he put together this season, taking over a spot and becoming maybe a fixture atop this Reds lineup? One thing I didn't know is that Jonathan India is a member of the Yolked Fathers Club. Are you in that club?

No, no. His father is a bodybuilder level dude along the lines of Earl Stroman. Oh, okay. I thought this was more like Tyler O'Neal's situation too. I thought you were saying that Jonathan Imbia is a father who is yoked. He has a father who is yoked. He has a very yoked father. In fact, his body type is yoked. Okay. He has a very yoked father. Uh, in fact, he, he's, he's, his body type is much more normal compared. I mean, Tyler O'Neill, uh, took his father's, uh, you know, legacy and, and, and, and ran with it. Um, he, Jonathan India reminds me a

little bit more of Shane Baz where they're these kind of live, you know, skinny athletes and their fathers are just yoked. But I don't think that's relevant right now, you know, so shut up. I love India's reach rate. It is tiny. It is second best on this team. It is even, in fact, better than Joey Votto's. I interviewed Joey Votto for a piece that'll probably wait till spring.

But I talked to him about this year and he said, I just want to have fun. And that he stopped worrying so much about not reaching and that all he wants to do is hit homers. not reaching and that all he wants to do is hit homers. And that means sometimes swinging and driving pitches that are outside the zone. So Joey Votto no longer has one of the very best reach rates in baseball. And Jonathan India has beaten him on his own team.

I also like Jonathan India's 10% bail rate. I love his 11% walk rate, 22% strikeout rate. I love the 12 stolen bases. I don't see a problem. In fact, one of the pleasant surprises for this team next year might be that buying Jonathan India high is a good move. Yeah, I wonder where he's going to go. We could play our favorite game, the game show, Sweeping the Nation.

Guess the ADP. Oh, man. The fairytale land I go to in my head sometimes is truly a special place. But it's a possible five-category contribution again next year. And it's possible that there's even a little more power. I think with India, we could even play Would You Rather. That's the original game show that swept the nation from the depths of my mind. Would you rather Jonathan India or Ozzy Alves?

Whoa, you're going all the way up there? Yeah. Yeah, you've set the bar very high. I didn't even think. I thought there'd be a tear break before them. Why not? Maybe you're right. Maybe that's about where he belongs.

Hmm. I thought there'd be a tear break before them. Why not? Maybe you're right. Maybe that's about where he belongs. I mean, in terms of projections, you're probably talking about a 250 average from India, but the bad X has 265, and I love that reach rate, and the power, and the contact are all there. He might even improve the contact rate in the second year. And so if he's at 265 and you buy the power and you buy the stolen bases then you're talking about 265 20 25 10 to 15

that is ozzy albies so if he's cheaper than ozzy albies i'm taking jonathan india i'm passing on ozzy albies and taking jonathan india fact, my second base strategy next year might be Jonathan India or Ketel Marte in the fourth or fifth. My apologies to our viewers on YouTube for the awkward angle at which I'm looking at the camera. I'm trying to stand up during today's show, and I'm very pensively looking at these player pages. So I don't mean to make weird faces like a character from a video game, but Ozzy Albee's is close to a 30-20 season. It'll be the first time that he's reached those levels. So I think because he's got a longer track record of doing it,

I think he's there. 265 average or something, right? Yeah, so the bat's actually higher on Albee's long-term average than India's. I think they're going to be closer in production than people think. So I think it does come down to what you're saying, the price. Like I would choose, if the costs were equal, I prefer Albies to India. The question is more fair than I thought it was when you put it out there.

I think if I'm looking at the... Yeah, because you're going to get like two or three rounds with India. Right. And I'm trying to find a comparable player from drafts this year. I mean, Jose Altuve in late March had an ADP of 86. Is India going to go much earlier than that? Albies was going inside the top 40.

Like he was, yeah, he was up there. So is India kind of in that 75 to 90 range? Does that seem about right? Yeah. With Marte. And I bet you Altuve will still be down there because of his age. That's just silly. I mean, I'm... Well, all right.

Maybe... Okay, so this is my guess. I'm not mocking you. I'm mocking the market if that's an accurate... If you're right, I'm all in on Altuve. My guess is Albies in the top 30. Okay. Yeah.

Right? He'll hold a spot there or near there. Maybe top 25. He's going to go. He won't the last two rounds. Altuve in the next round. Yeah, probably more like pick 50 something in that range and then india and marte uh uh in like the sixth and seventh who am i missing in second base

yeah nobody i think that's pretty accurate in terms of what we're looking for. Let's see. Anybody else jammed in that range? I'm loading up the earn values tools to make sure there's nobody else who should be in there. Theoretically, Javier Baez should be in that mix too. Muncy qualifies right now at least. I think we checked. He's still going to qualify next year. Brandon Lau doing it kind of a different way, less balanced.

Chris Taylor is kind of the same type of player. As India. Yep. I think that's probably a really good baseline sort of comp. I think that's a good fallback plan. I do think, for example, Jonathan India and Ozzy Alves have very similar barrel rate and max EVs. And they both hit in hitter-friendly parks.

So I do kind of think that Albies might take a step back from that 30 homer level. Yeah, so if we're playing, I think we tried to rename this one to draft this, not that. I think it was spit or swing was what someone threw out there. I don't know if that name is going to stick. But part of the reason you could comfortably pass on Albies if he's going to hold that 30 to 40 range overall

is you have these other options that could come close and I think I think second base seems a little bit healthier to me than it did last year yeah India I think India could have one more level with that power I think he could get to a 30 10 sort of season I don't know if he'll run enough to ever push 20 steals but especially with the park that he's in 30 home runs doesn't seem impossible anyway uh he counts as this year's pleasant surprise and possibly next year's pleasant surprise uh you know on the pitching side uh i you know i'd say tyler molly but i don't think anybody listening to this uh podcast was surprised by tyler molly no no so i here's here's my surprise on the pitching side this will be a quick one lucas sims uh the era is at 447 but this is actually probably the best

version of lucas sims we've seen yet 38.3 k rate 14.4 singing strike rate a walk rate at 9.3 lowest it's been since 2017 he could be their main source of saves but the other surprise is an unpleasant surprise but it's worth mentioning here because i will forget before we get to the all negative shows coming up in november brace yourself for that darkness no nobody nobody has reached 10 saves for the reds this season they dealt for michael gibbons or no so i think i think sims would be my guy to lead this team, but they've kind of gone the way of the Rays. And I don't know if they're necessarily going to go back,

but if you said you have to roster a Reds reliever, whether that's for draft and hold or NL only, Lucas Sims is someone I think is going to be a little bit underpriced going into 2022. Yeah, I don't think Michael Gibbons is around next year. Pretty sure he's a free agent fairly confident yeah so um yeah free agent and michael lorenzen is also a free agent which uh he's gotten a few saves this year so yeah i think uh i guess maybe you know sessa recast or Garrett and a Garrett reprisal. Those are pretty much the only two other names that I'm,

uh, that I would put in the class of Lucas. So I think, yeah, I think Lucas Sims, man. All right. We are on the same page.

It's time to go to St. Louis and you don't have to look far. We had a question about Tyler O'Neill, whether or not we believe in it. I mean, I think he could be the winner for this award on the hitting side. I think there's an old man on the pitching side that has it kind of locked up on that side.

He's the easy winner. He's the easy. Oh, yeah, you're right. You're right. Co-winners, perhaps. I think this is a question that Al Melkier threw at me on Fantasy Baseball in 15 earlier this week. What's next for Tyler O'Neill?

A lot of people are wondering about this. A 283 average. I don't know if anyone ever expected that because of the K rate that he brings. But the one thing that I threw out there on the other pod was just that for a guy that strikes out a lot, Tyler O'Neal does enough other things well to keep his batting average floor

more in the 230-240 range as opposed to the 210-220 range. He hits the ball very hard he doesn't pull everything and he runs well so he holds higher bad dips and you can get by with a 30 k rate if you do all those other things well and i don't think at his current age he's going to lose a lot of athleticism anytime soon i mean i don't think tyler o'neill's going to lose athleticism really until he's like 80 years old if even even then. You define it by muscle mass. Right.

There's going to be someday I'm going to go into a gym when I'm like 98 years old to slowly walk on a treadmill and Tyler O'Neal is going to be in there squatting 600 pounds still. But I mean, a 32 homer, 14 steel season with average on top of that. This is another guy who's going to have an ADP that just goes through the roof. People have liked him for a long time. The other surprising thing when I was digging into him before, he has more plate appearances this season, 521, than he had in the previous three seasons in the big leagues combined.

That actually surprised me. I thought we had seen more. Failure, I guess, was the word. But I thought we saw more of Tyler O'Neal in the big leagues than we actually did prior to this season. And I'm pretty excited about his future because he has a lot of ways to make value as he's shown us this year. I think he's a trap.

Really? Like Admiral Ackbar level? That's a trap. Yeah, I kind of do. When I look at his line, I hate to ogle the 32% strikeout rate. At least I have to give some love to the 18% barrel rate. In his rookie season, he had a really nice barrel rate too. He has the body of a barrel.

So you'd think that he is going to hit things hard, but I just don't know about the steals. So I think next year could be a 230 season with 30 homers and five steals. What do you think of that? Not impossible. I think that's like a bottom 15% to 20% outcome based on projections. Yeah, I think it's – I was thinking that was like a 35% to 40% outcome.

I don't know. He hits the ball really hard a lot. He can regress quite a bit in hard hit rates. He'll pop those homers. He's 14 for 18 as a base dealer. He could regress to like a 13% value rate and that'd still be top 10 type stuff.

He's got an 80% success rate for his career as a base dealer so there's no reason to slow him down. He actually runs well and he actually missed some playing time this year because of injury. There's a chance that he can even offset some of the skills lost by just playing a higher volume of games. He could be 150 games next year

and push closer to 100 runs and maybe even 100 RBIs depending on the shape of that lineup around him. Yeah, that swinging strike rate though is just... This is the swinging strike rate leaderboard. Oh, I guess that's interesting. Javier Baez, number one.

Avisel Garcia, number two. He's had a pretty good season. Salvador Perez, number three. Adoles Garcia, number four. Fernando Tatis Jr., number five. Tyler News, six. Ryan Mountcastle, seven. Nick Castellanos, eight.

Brandon Lau, nine. Miguel Sano, ten. Shohei Otani, 11. Teoscar Hernandez, 7. Nick Castellanos, 8. Brandon Lau, 9. Miguel Sano, 10. Shohei Otani, 11. Teoscar Hernandez, 12. You named more good players than bad from that leaderboard. I think I did. I really did. That's about two-thirds or three-quarters good players.

Very good players. That's crazy. I did not expect that. Alright. Well, maybe you're changing my mind on air. You know, it's rattled i have to see i have to see i have to see the projections i have to see where he's going um i don't deny his prodigious power uh how could you and um i suppose he's still of the age where you know you could see maybe a slight improvement in the strikeout rate. I mean, that was the whole thing about last year.

I think he really overly concentrated on what was happening in the plate in terms of getting his walk rate up and his strikeout rate down. And that was when he had his lowest swing strike rate and his lowest strikeout rate and his worst power numbers. So this year he's just been like screw it, I'm swinging hard at everything. It's working. And his pull rate is down. It's pretty interesting. Yeah, that was the thing that surprised me. I thought, oh, maybe he's just pulling everything.

Not the case. He's got a nice balanced approach right now. Yeah. Well, maybe he's not as much of a trap as i thought you know what else is pretty interesting paul goldschmidt quietly having just as good of a season as tyler o'neill he's played more because he's been healthier but talk about a guy if you had him rostered all year he's just been kind of steady the second half has been a big part of the card's recent success, but I think he'll stay in the old and boring bucket yet again in 2022 and probably be undervalued as a result.

Let's get to the pitching side. Just a quick note, though. At 33, around 32 to 33, projections become less reliable. So he is in a tough bucket when it comes to just saying oh look at he's projected to hit 280 with you know 28 homers and 10 steals again next year he's going to be a value remember that he'll be 34 and projections are less reliable after the age of 32 yeah the danger zone as we like to call it uh but then there's adam wainwright, an ageless wonder whose projections, I don't know,

I don't remember what they were going into the season. I have to look him up just to be sure, but I don't have him anywhere. I didn't pick him up anywhere. I don't think I even rostered him as a pitch and ditch sort of guy this season. So this is one of my biggest misses of the entire season.

We've had everything. We've had a good ERA, good whip, high volume of strikeouts because the innings that he's thrown. How did this happen? And if he runs it back again in 2022, where do we set expectations for ratios for him there? Maybe I should look at 2020 from him as more of an indicator of what he was still capable of as opposed to a 65 inning fluke that I thought it was.

I think the name here to remember is Rich Hill. Rich Hill is still somehow doing it, and Rich Hill is doing it in a very similar way, which is both of them have top 10-level curveballs and not much else going for them. Wayne Ryan has a slightly larger arsenal, but none of his pitches other than the curveball rate above average by stuff. And so I think you can watch him and you can see, okay,

this is all about dancing around with the cutter and the sinker as much as possible, but, but knowing that the hitter is always wondering when the curveball is coming. And it is a testament to the ability of one pitch to be so excellent that it can extend your career. I think Wainwright may be a pleasant surprise next year in the same way as I might buy high on Jonathan India, I might buy high on Adam Wainwright may be a pleasant surprise next year in the same way as I might buy high on Jonathan India, I might buy high on Adam Wainwright.

Yeah. He's in an excellent park. If Rich Hill signed with the Cardinals next year, I might have some shares. And I kind of feel like Wainwright's not going anywhere with the Cardinals. He's kind of going to do the Molina thing where he signs another one-year deal or whatever.

And so I think that they'll be good. They're like that, that ageless, you know, they've done, they figured something out and they can, they'll have some blowups, but if you put them in the right park,

you know, they're, they're going to be good. If you kind of looked at Ozzy Albies as a guy you'd pass on at a higher price to then just get Jonathan India and maybe get similar production. Can you play the same game with Hingen Ryu? Because the strikeout rate's very similar. The walk rate's very similar and it's a much tougher environment to pitch in. But if Wainwright comes back and we're talking about maybe a 50 or even a 75 pick gap between

where Ryu is being drafted and where Wainwright's being drafted is that a trade-off that you're comfortable making with that sort of discount yeah it's a tough one because I I think I would have like Ryu I had going into the season in my top 40 and Wainwright popped by the pitching plus model and I ignored it uh And I had Wainwright at like 80 or something. I really should have put Wainwright in the top 50. And if I put him in the top 50 and Ruse in, you know, like 35 or something, then that's an argument for what you're saying.

Because that's more like a 15, you know, rankings difference or a 20-ranking difference, but like 50 or 60 spots in the draft. Yeah, interesting having to take the flyer on a guy like that, though, just given the age and what looked like a more normal sort of ending to his career prior to the shortened season. It just looked like Wainwright was done at that point. Let's get to the Brewers.

A lot of choices here. And I landed on, if you didn't say it's Willie Adames post-trade outside the trop, it's probably either Luis Urias or Avi Garcia. Garcia's one home run away from 30. That's something he's never done before. And Urias, as we talked about kind of briefly on a recent pod, kind of making it look like that trade that sent Trent Grisham to San Diego is not quite the disaster that it appeared to be a year ago.

Might still be a trade that favors the Padres long-term, but seeing Urias pop 22 homers this year, contribute in the runs and RBIs category, steal a handful of bases. Even if batting average is a category where he's just kind of mediocre, if he stays in the 240s, he's a good enough player to continue being a viable fantasy option for us

for the next few years. Who really stood out to you the most in this team? I have wild expectations for the Brewers every year, but what did you not see coming from this roster? Avisel Garcia is a beast when it comes to stat cast numbers in terms of max EV, barrel, but also sprint speed and arm strength and just general yokedness. He's definitely undercover yoked.

I don't think people have understood that. So I thought he might have a good season, but I was a little bit worried. The pleasant surprise for me was that I thought this Brewers team might be kind of crowded in the outfield and he only got to

505 plate appearances, so maybe some of that was warranted, but I didn't know how many plate appearances you get you know um i thought he would do well when he was in there but you know going into the season you're talking about having jackie bradley jr and lorenzo kane and uh yelich and garcia right so there was some crowded aspect to it, but Jackie Bradley Jr. made it less crowded, and Garcia ended up playing most of the time when he was healthy. I thought Colton Wong would have more power, and he did,

so that didn't surprise me too much. I picked up shares of Adonis as soon as he went to Milwaukee because I thought, looking at his home road splits, that he was having some sort of trouble with the trop. I talked to him recently. He definitely thinks it's the lights there. So I thought, here he is going to a much better home park. So I don't know.

I almost answer like Adrianrian hauser maybe um i uh i i should have picked these guys uh to win the division that's okay you know you could pick them next year and all will be forgiven but adrian Hauser, I think, because expectations were lower for him, it feels like a pleasant surprise for sure. Freddy Peralta, though. I think I mentioned it on this pod. Maybe I mentioned it on the Athletic Fantasy Baseball podcast, but that early draft.

That's the real answer. I think that's the answer. That early draft I do with Zola, which starts up, I think, Friday night. Jeez, that's too nuts. I got to crank it on those rankings. Freddy Peralta. Do you have think, Friday night. Jeez, that's too... I gotta crank it on those rankings. Freddy Peralta... What? You have a draft Friday night? Well, it's a slow draft. It'll take

a couple weeks to get through it. Freddy Peralta was undrafted in a 15-team mixed league draft that started as last season was coming to an end. And to see him at this level, where... I mean, he's pushed almost... He going to probably get to 150 innings if they let him kind of go through a regular start for his regular season finale.

He's going to pitch in the postseason a lot, hopefully two. He's got a shot at 200 Ks. He's got a sub three ERA. And he's got a whip below one. And for as much as, you know, we've talked about Corbin Burns as a Cy Young candidate. I think we both liked Brandon Woodruff as a Cy Young candidate going into the season. He hasn't disappointed. He's just had a few other guys in the NL pitch at even higher levels than he has.

Freddy Peralta doesn't get mentioned in the same breath, but he probably deserves it. As much as I liked him when he first came up, you could not have told me that this was going to happen. I wouldn't have believed it. There's no way. not have told me that this was going to happen and i i wouldn't have believed it there's just there's no way a sub-3 era and a sub-1 whip from freddie peralta seemed impossible to me yeah yeah i think it's one of those things where you look at he had like two innings per per appearance last year so you look at the the strikeout rate and you say, well, you know, this is obviously a good pitcher, but at two innings per game, maybe he's just good

as a reliever. You know, that's sort of, remember that was the kind of the bouncing back and forth we did last year. We were like, maybe he's just this like volume reliever, or maybe he's a, needs an opener, right? There was a whole discussion of maybe it's the first inning and uh i kind of a name that sort of pops in my head right now is drew rasmussen where his role has been up in the air this year and there's a big discussion about whether or not he can do it as a starter and maybe peralta kind of tells you that if you have a big fastball that really works and you have a breaking ball that works off of tells you that if you have a big fastball that really works and you have a breaking ball that works off of that fastball you can be a starter yeah I'm blown away by what we've seen so far I know projections are calling for regression

already and I'm sure once they do a full update it might not be as harsh as it is right now it's about a full run according to the bat, like what he's done versus what was projected rest of the season. But if we say he's a 350 guy next season with a 115 whip and a well above average strikeout rate, that's going to work. It'll be worth buying high. Yep, that could actually be basically a repeat. I just wonder, what does that look like?

Is he a guy that's going to go inside the top 40 overall? Are the Brewers going to have three guys inside the top 40 overall in that rotation? Yes. That's going to be weird for me to see that happen. You know what? I think Peralta may just suffer a numbers game situation. Maybe not. I don't know.

a numbers game situation. Maybe not. I don't know. He'll be the cheapest of the three by a relatively large margin for an early rounder. But I wonder if there should be that much of a gap. Do you think there's just going to be

massive inflation on all the Brewers next year? Because other than Christian Jelic, of course. Oh, jeez. Yeah. Guess the ADP for Jelic. For another day. Yeah. You know, people will still give him another shot,

and I'm looking for numbers that tell me that I should give him that shot, and I can't really find them right now. Not a very good barrel rate. I guess an okay hard hit rate, but everything's on the ground again. I'll talk you into Christian Yeelich. I got time. Just give me two months. I got spare time and you got a fridge full of beer. I'm going to talk you into Christian Yelich like a dozen times between now

and next March. Oh, yes. I look forward to it. Who's up next? We got to get to the Marlins. We got to get to the NL East. We got to get out of here in like 20 minutes, so we're going to have to speed it up, which is my own fault, of course. We like to talk to each other too much. How about Trevor Rodgers?

I think he's kind of the runaway winner, only because even if you jumped on board with the spring that he had, he showed flashes of taking a massive step forward in spring training. As much as we can be excited about a pitcher that time of year, even if you bought in then, you didn't expect a level quite this good from him over the course of the season. And Pitching Plus never really quite bought in.

It just said the slider was no good and it doesn't like to change up as much as the results seem to like to change up. So I don't know what I'll do next year. I'll have to do more of a deep dive into him. But any pitcher in that park gets a boost. So you have to always remember that the park is such a great place to pitch. If Rich Hill signs there, I'll sign him.

place to pitch. If Rich Hill signs there, I'll sign him. If Rich Hill signs in Pitcher Park, I will be interested in Rich Hill. I do want to give a little bit of love to Miguel Rojas. He's used Aguiar

as being boring veterans that cost nothing and provided positive fantasy value for their teams this year and proof that you can hit in that park. You know, jazzism counts, but the prospect community loved him. And I think, you know, going forward, I think we still haven't answered exactly how good jazz Chisholm is. I mean, this year he had a 98 WRC+, because of all the strikeouts and no walks.

Does he add more walks going forward? Does he cut the strikeouts? Does he add power? There's still a fair amount of upset there at 23 years old, but I don't think we can call him a pleasant surprise. The Jazz Chisholm situation is exciting, I think, for the long term. The K rate being down is a really good sign from him. I think who's going to break out next year for the Marlins?

I was hoping it was going to be J.J. Blede. He was having a brutal year in the minors. I think last time I checked, it might have been early July. It looks like things have gotten a little better. A dozen homers, 21.6% K rate, good walk rate. So maybe there's some rebound potential. And I think that's a group of players, like top prospects that struggled in the upper levels of the minor leagues. There will be some buying opportunities in keeper leagues, dynasty leagues, in the real trade market for real teams. There's going to be players moved that we didn't see coming.

And I think we saw that at the deadline when Austin Martin got traded by the Blue Jays as part of that deal that sent Barrios to Toronto. We're going to see more trades like that around, I think, the winter meetings. So I'm just curious to see which prospects real-life teams try to buy low on because I think that might inform us of who's looking into some underlying numbers that might still have some hope for some of these guys that have had disappointing years. Yeah, my bet for pleasant surprise next year is Jesus Sanchez. The strikeout rate is too high right now, but if I remember correctly, and the page is loading,

I remember smaller strikeout rates in the minor leagues. Much smaller, yes. And so I believe he will improve on the strikeout rate next year and capitalize on the 12% barrel rate and maybe be their best outfielder. I can definitely see that. Actually, I'm going to get rid of the maybe. Come on. Have some huevos.

Jesus Sanchez will be the Marlins' best outfielder next year. All right. With conviction. Very well done. Más fuerte. Let's keep rolling through the NL East and let's go to, let's go to the, go to the nationals next,

I guess this is this division. Is there anything good about the nationals and any, any actual pleasant surprise there? Is it Lane Thomas? It's only been over a partial season. We talked about him as kind of the more of like a last chance saloon sort of guy because of his age and i think there's a good chance that he does have a meaningful role for the nats in 2022 but is there

anybody else that's caught your eye no lane thomas is my my uh pleasant surprise although um i think that some people might have checked out of josh bell's season early and not realize that he has a shot at 30 homers uh he's been 15 better than the average um one thing that has made him difficult because i have rostered him in a couple places and rostered him on teams that will win championships uh this week is he's he has sat some against lefties and i don't know if that's just because Ryan Zimmerman is hanging around and maybe that won't happen going forward, but

it is a bit of a weakness. He's a switch hitter, so you wouldn't expect it, but he's weaker against lefties. And I do wonder what that means because as we discussed on monday plate appearance or everything and if you're in a 15 team league josh bell played most of the season and is only gonna

get to 500 play 550 plate appearances because of the that sitting that he did he's only gonna get 70 he's at 72 runs 88 rbi so it is the secret thief on any team is platoon problems and teams that sit players like that. So I wonder, I don't think that Zimmerman will be around next year. I think this is his retirement situation. It's probably the end. Yeah, he signed a $1 million deal this year. He was not a great hitter.

So with Zimmerman off the team, maybe they're just like, hey, let's stick him out there. I don't know. What else counts as a pleasant surprise on this team? It was an unpleasant surprise of a season for them across the board, I would say. Maybe Kyle Finnegan for second half saves. I mean, that's, I guess, the only other one that really sort of comes to mind for me. But I think looking forward, I'm still very interested in Josiah Gray. I think there's going to be a lot of helium on Kiebert Ruiz. We talked about him a couple weeks ago. I think it

makes sense to like him a lot. But I think with Gray, you got a guy with at least two good secondary pitches. The fastball has been a problem so far. He doesn't have a track record of bad command. There's clear opportunity there. I don't think the fact that the Dodgers traded him means that he's not going to be good. I think it means the Dodgers have a lot of pitching, and you have to give something to get something,

especially when that something is Trey Turner and Max Scherzer. So as much as Gray has struggled during his time with the Nats, I think he's a great late pitching flyer, probably one of the guys you can draft after round 25 of a 15-team league. So one of your last picks, maybe more borderline for a 12-team mixed league, but a late flyer worth taking based on the track record and some of the underlying numbers with the secondary pitches. I mean, i hear you the one problem i have is that the pitching plus model presaged these problems uh by pointing

out that his forcing fastball is not good by stuff plus and not good by location plus his slider only rates as average as good as seems. And the curveball is also below average. Maybe some improvement in location, which is not as sticky year to year, could work. But one thing that pauses me from going in on him as a late sleeper, because the cost is so low i love usually love pitchers like this i i don't have much confidence in washington pitching development um you know for example uh austin both it's not voth although i think it'd be cooler if it was voth i mean am i allowed to say that it's his name i shouldn't tell. It should be cooler if it was pronounced somewhere else.

But it's like Voth rhymes with Goth is better than Voth rhymes with both. I'm just saying. Anyway, Austin Voth does well by all these stuff plus and location plus. He's always had good location and he often has had to go outside the organization to recover velocity and to recover some of his pitch characteristics. So at some point, I feel like he just needs to go to a different organization. I know he has a.553 ERA and a.525 career ERA, but there is something here. The fact that Washington hasn't been able

to get it out of him is just kind of uh one of the many reasons also they did really poorly when we looked at developing velocity uh and they also have a poor reputation around the game when it comes to pitching development so uh you know put those together, and I'm kind of like, yeah, Josiah Gray, but in Washington? And then Washington is a Homer park. Right. It's a park that augments Homers. So I'm with you on the Nats being rubbish at developing pitchers. But the fact that he came from two organizations that have done a good job with it, with the Reds and the Dodgers.

So you can just call back on it, maybe? I mean, I think it's more of just like taking development into his own hands. And this is a guy that didn't play at a D1 school. For sure. I guess it's a little bit of faith that he can look around where he is right now and say, wait a minute, this isn't the same info I was getting before.

This isn't the same coaching I was getting before. I got to go out and fix this myself. I think it's me more of a bet on just the raw ingredients being good enough and age to level production still matters to me. I think I totally understand your concerns. And if he's still getting blasted with the same arsenal early in April next year, he's one of the first guys off my roster. But there's quite a bit to like in his profile.

Yeah, I mean, just minor league strikeout rates, just strikeout rates in general, are something to bet on. K minus BB is one of the strongest single stats in the sport, and focusing on the K side is better since we know that command kind of goes and comes from year to year so my pick for pleasant surprise next year though is lane thomas i'm going to pick the same guy

because i don't think that people will buy into it it'll come at a time when a lot of people aren't paying attention to fantasy and it'll be in such a small sample and have affected so few people you know what i mean like so few people will have rostered lane thomas and remembered how good he was that i don't think he'll have any sort of helium next year but he has a really good reach rate a pretty good barrel rate and uh all the opportunity in the world again i think he'll be a starting outfielder for them i think he'll hit 270 next year with 23 homers and 10 stolen bases. He's a good player. Yeah, and I think he'll be super cheap.

So that is my pick for Pleasant Surprise next year. Who's next? Philly. Yeah, the Phillies are a team that I don't have a lot of long-term hope for. I think they're a good old core that just needs to keep adding in free agency. So finding a next year's pleasant surprise on that roster is harder for me than most. I would say if I had to look forward for them, does Alec Boehm count?

Because he's an unpleasant surprise for this year. I still believe in his approach as a hitter. I think he kind of fell into this weird spot where he had that success right away. Season wasn't long enough last year for teams to adjust. They adjusted to him. He has to adjust back. I still think he can make a lot of hard contact, keep the K rate reasonably low, and end up being a very productive corner bat for the Phillies. So I see a nice bounce back coming from him. I have a little bit of love for Bailey Falter as a kind of Zach Eflin clone where he'll have just enough stuff

and a lot of command and kind of make it work on the kind of 3-9 to 4-2 ERA front. It'll count as a pleasant surprise because he has a 5 ERA now and isn't really on anybody's list. But I could see Bailey Falter slipping into that fifth starter role and giving them some love next year.

But Boehm is also my pick for next year. For this year, though... Ranger? Ranger Suarez has to be the pick, yeah. I just, you know, I think that he does not have the stuff to continue being this good, though. Yeah, but let's say he's a part of the rotation all year next year. Is he a 380 ERA guy with a 125 whip, or is he worse than that? Yeah. guy with like a 125 whip or is he worse than that yeah yeah it's interesting to see that the bat likes him for a 35 era but it's one start so maybe the bat has more matchups information in it

um i like zips is 3951. I think that seems about right. It's usable. I would call him a matchups guy next year. Okay, that's not bad. I have no feel for how much people are going to overreact to what looks like 100 innings now of amazing ratios and a strikeout per inning. If they overreact and he's a top 150 overall guy, I'm not in that range.

If people say, eh, we're all skeptical, maybe then. But I think you're right. I think a matchup's play, especially because of the park, too. That's always a factor for me with fringy starters in Philadelphia. If Rich Hill signs with Philadelphia, I will not have shares. I don't think I'll roster him at all except for road starts against the Marlins. I don't know, man. If he was in St. Louis or in Miami, you wouldn't roster him?

I think he'd be a great bench pitcher. Yeah, I like it if he lands there. If he lands in Philly, I think I would only roster him. I could pick him up for a road start in Miami. That's what I'm saying. Yeah, yeah, yeah. I'm saying if he signs with Philadelphia, I'm not in on that. 100% agree.

Can you have pleasant surprises when your expectations were to win 90 plus games and you won like 77? I don't know. Is this the Mets? Yeah, let's get to the Mets. Oh, man. I really thought we were done dunking on that. Jonathan Villar, maybe? I really did. Yeah, man. I really thought we were done dunking on that.

Jonathan Villar, maybe? I really did. Yeah. I guess Villar is like a $9, $10 player. 18, Homer's 14. And I kind of scoffed at the idea that he would be worth drafting. I did. I think there's probably audio that exists.

Yeah, it's probably out there. Can we give them credit for Javier Baez? We didn't give the Cubs credit for it, even though the Cubs had him for a larger portion of the season than the Mets did. Baez is going to have maybe a 30-20 season that no one cares about. Yeah, yeah. He's just one of those ones that the numbers won't like,

and that creates an opportunity today in fantasy games because um you know in in terms of projection and stuff so many people he was so close to the projections that uh if you think that Javi Baez you know is going to land somewhere where he plays more like the Mets version um you will get value for your money. I think in the short term, he's still an okay bet. But in terms of dynasty, I think this is the year to sell him. Yeah. The long-term concerns are legit. But Baez has basically been a top 30 player based on earned value this year.

God, look at that max EV, dude. That's impressive. It's earned value this year. God, look at that max EV, dude. That's impressive. It's gone up every year. He's been in the big leagues, basically, and it's up to 116.7. And his plate approach is so horrid. That's where all that long-term concern comes from. But you're playing one year at a time,

and no one likes him. And through the sabermetric lens people only see the flaws they don't see the good things that he does there's plenty of good things that yeah he's going into this year he he ended up uh i actually i did get a couple shares because he ended up dropping so much and that i i bought him mostly in best ball because i figured yeah he's dropping but this is a guy who can put together just a a torrid you know month and unfortunately he he put up that toward month after my best ball teams were eliminated but who's complaining yeah uh do we don't have any other candidates

not really tyler mcgill's home run rate exploded. So, I mean, I think he came out of relative nowhere. I think I might have him as next year's. I could buy that. I like his collection of pitches. I like the fact that he has multiple pitches. I like that his secondaries are good. I think slightly better command and maybe a little bit fewer fastballs.

I mean, he still threw 57% fastballs. The fastballs are not that good. And it looks like he can command his sliders. So why not push the slider percentage to 25% and be more like 50-25-25 with the change in slider? So I have some hope for him next year. Yeah, Stroman, I think, counts, man, because projections were pretty low on him.

And I know that my Pitching Plus model didn't love him, but I had to put him higher than projections to put him in my top 60, I think. And he put this season together. I think he's the winner. He's got five seasons now in his career with a Sierra under four. Ks are never the strength,

but because of the volume, he ends up making up ground in that category, even with the rate being a little bit lower. And this year, it was the highest swinging strike rate of Marcus Stroman's career. So there was some improvement in that regard. He's done some weird things this year. He started throwing some splitters high in the zone.

I mean, he's changing things up, and he still has that excellent ground ball rate because the sinker's so good. I don't know how to appraise him going forward. Some part of this also is that the Mets' home park played extremely pitcher-friendly this year, and we haven't really uncovered the mystery there yeah that's a bizarre one that i'm sure we'll get a chance to dig into a bit more over the course of the winter i'm with you on mcgill i think there's enough in that profile where he could end up being the pleasant surprise at least for the group of pitchers there in 2022. You could go as simple as good

strikeouts, good walks, bad home run rate in 84 innings. I mean, that's a decent way to go find sleepers. Right. Especially it's not going to take you a top 250 pick, maybe not even top 300 pick to get McGill. Who knows how aggressive they'll be in free agency that could make it look like he's their sixth starter going into the season. If that happens, the price drops even further. Guys get hurt, so you still could draft him in those deeper mixed leagues that we're always talking about. Last team to get to, Atlanta. And it's actually funny that we pushed the Mets up in the order and dragged the Phillies down by getting them earlier

since Atlanta-Philly is still battling it out for the NL East. Oops, yeah, we got that one. Eh, it happens. But Atlanta's pleasant surprises. I mean, I think it's got to be Waskery Noah as the winner of this. And I really wanted to know. Because we anticipated Austin Riley. So on the sort of surprise aspect, Austin Riley doesn't win.

I think he's absolutely part of the conversation. I think Noah was just a guy. I had no expectations for him. With riley we had prospect pedigree we saw plate skills that were heading in the right direction that's a year ago we've seen flashes of the raw power even when he first came up he was mashing but for him to do it consistently definitely a pleasant surprise but i mean wascary noah did anybody think he was, going to be in the rotation as long as he was healthy this season, and B, that he'd be a great contributor in WIP and ERA? The ratios we saw in the little bits he was in the big leagues were atrocious.

He had a walks issue last year when we saw him. I just didn't see enough in that profile on the surface to even dig deep, and that was a big miss. I just didn't see enough in that profile on the surface to even dig deep. And that was a big miss. I mean, he sat 96.6 this year? Yeah. That's a lot of ELO. I will say that the location plus numbers on his pitches are not good.

It suggests that the slider is the only pitch he can command. But if there's only one pitch you can command that's not bad actually because then you can throw the slider in any count at any time now people have to if they sit slider then you can just sort of pitch backwards and you're pitching backwards with a 97 mile hour fastball right so if they sit slider you have a really good pitch you can put in different parts of the of the zone which he did make some mechanical adjustments to get to that point now that might be a really good two pitch basis now you just have to have a show me change if people have figured something out about your sequencing i think that you know i might end up being a one of those repeat

Inouye might end up being one of those repeat pleasant surprises. Inouye versus Elzelay, who we talked about earlier for 2022. Who would you take if the price is similar? Oh, man. I think Inouye is going to be a little more expensive, but I don't think it's going to be that much of a gap. So, Adbert, this is actually where I think the Pitching Plus model is going to be the most useful because Pitching Plus beats projections on starters four or five starts into the season, which suggests to me that for pitchers that had 20, 25 starts,

traditional projections are still going to be superior, but the smaller your sample is, the more you should look at pitching plus. Pitching plus for Alzalea is 101, 104, with just below average stuff because of some of that curveball and sinker usage, and just above average location. And Waskery,ery noah so we're trying to beat 101.4 i think waskery is going to beat that and i think i'm going to take waskery because i think in terms of a single pitch uh he's got the best single pitch so as this loads i mean isn't that is that is that more of a thing that we should consider now?

We used to think, Ooh, Oscar, you know, has a 100 pitching plus because he has a one Oh four stuff and a below average location plus. So what we know that stuff plus is, is stickier year to year. So does it,

does anything I'm saying inform your decision? Yeah. Continue to be a stuffist.ist seems like the main takeaway here. But I think with Inouye, there's also the team context. How much more do you like the 2022 Braves than the 2022 Cubs? That could also be something that separates these two guys if they do end up ending up in the same tier. But Inouye also throws in a new launching pad.

That was the nickname for the old Atlanta Stadium, and the new Atlanta Stadium actually seems to have those characteristics. Fair point. Wins, though, are a category that I always ignore to my peril. I want to ignore them, but... I'm going Enoa by a nose. All right. I'm on board.

I like both. I like both. I like both. I think they're both, and I wonder, I want to see what their ADPs are like next year. If they're near each other, try to get both, maybe.

Yeah, definitely a possibility given where they'll be going. Before we go, a lot of announcements to pass along. One, you can get 50% off a subscription to The Athletic at theathletic.com slash rates and barrels, so be sure to do that. Two, we have live shows

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