Rates & Barrels - 2022 First Base Review

Episode Date: November 14, 2022

Eno and DVR discuss the 2022 first base pool. How much can we trust Paul Goldschmidt's incredible season? Can Vlad Jr. get back to his 2021 levels? How reliables are mid-round and late values at the position? And, what is next for Vinnie Pasquantino, Spencer Torkelson, Triston Casas, and Joey Meneses? Rundown 2:19 Paul Goldschmidt's Incredible 2022 12:54 Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s Small Step Down 19:16 Uneaten Hats: Freddie Freeman 24:58 Mid-Round & Late First Base Surprises (Good & Bad) 35:09 Vinnie Pasquantino's Arrival 44:04 Spencer Torkelson's Disappointing Debut 51:29 Triston Casas' Late Look 58:20 Joey Meneses' Impressive Performance Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarris Follow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiper e-mail: [e-mail] Subscribe to The Athletic at $1/month for the first six months: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels Subscribe to the Rates & Barrels YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/c/RatesBarrels Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Derek Van Ryper here with Eno Saris. On this episode, we focus on our 2022 first base review. We're about halfway through this series, so I imagine, I don't know, before we get to the December holiday season, or at least the end of the December holidays, we'll have this series completely wrapped up just in time for the start of 2023. It's funny how those things work out with just a little bit of planning, right? Yeah, then we get to start all over again where we preview. The previews will be very different than the reviews. I'm just wholly, completely different. very different than the reviews.

I'm just wholly, completely different. Absolutely different. So we're working on the how exactly right now. That's what we're working on. And then recording these episodes as we go along. But it's better to keep the conversation going in November and December. I've worked on podcasts that sort of go away for a couple of months in the off season.

You do maybe a handful of episodes and that's okay. But I'd rather just keep talking and thinking about the problems at hand and trying to learn stuff from the past year. So that is what we are going to do. Now, first base is one of these positions that I have looked at more closely in recent years as a priority position. I used to think, oh, there's always a first baseman. Every team has someone that can pop 20 homers, and I can tuck myself into a half dozen of those guys outside of the top 200 as players capable of maybe getting to 30 homers and maybe getting 80 to 90 runs and 80 to 90 RBIs. And the truth is, a lot of those players in that range will bust or they simply don't play every day because they share their position. They share that role or because of the attrition rate at this position.

They just drop off the face of the earth completely over the course of the year and you're just left chasing production on the waiver wire, which is not impossible to find because players move around. And we do get some multi-position eligible in-season players at first base aside from anyone that comes up and takes a job outright but the very top of this position has been very good it was very good in 2022 and it's interesting to me that paul goldschmidt actually led first baseman in dollars earned in 2022 because he was the, in most drafts, fifth first baseman off the board back in April. Yeah, and some of these dollar signs are higher for first baseman than for third baseman. I remember the sixth best third baseman was Alex Bregman.

The sixth best third baseman this year was uh cj crone or nate low nate low i believe yeah and they're both worth around 20 dollars i mean 21 dollars for nate low 19 something for uh alex bregman uh also the sixth uh earliest taken first baseman is jose abreu 19 so there's a lot of similarities there were like there's a top five and then there's Also, the sixth earliest taken first baseman was Jose Abreu, $19. So there's a lot of similarities there where there's a top five, and then there's a couple guys that are worth close to $20, and then it drops off from there. Except the top third baseman were worth, according to, what is this? These are the Fangraphs auction calculator?

Fangraphs, yep. We have some nearly $38, 38 40 players here freddie freeman 37 paul goldschmidt 38 pete alonso 33 i think those are heights that only somebody like manny machado um was able to to get to on the third base side so uh there's a little bit of a top-end talent here that the third base situation didn't have yeah i mean i think um yeah you look at jose ramirez and manny machado sort of being in a class of their own in terms of that year-over-year viability we talked about rafael devers and the uneven season he had i think he's sort of capable of matching the production of some of the elite first baseman if everything comes together over a full year for

him. Jose Ramirez must have had a $35, $38. Constantly, yes. He's there all the time because he does everything. What's interesting though is in the very early 2023 drafts, Paul Goldschmidt's ADP is only up about a round, about 15 or so picks from where it was a year ago. So it seems like the early draft market is very skeptical of him being able to stay in the mid to high 30s level, which I think given his age is understandable. I guess the question is how much should we be regressing Goldschmidt? How much of an outlier relative to his baseline was the season that he just put together? It was a 317-404-578 line to 177 WRC+. It's just an incredible offensive season from a guy, the best WRC plus of his career, even, as a mostly 34-year-old.

He turned 35 in the middle of September. How much above expectations was this season when you look back at it for goldschmidt it is it was great and we've talked about how maybe you know veteran hitters like him are being undervalued i there's one asterisk though you know it's just that first pitch uh arizona uh the event put on by Baseball HQ at the Arizona Fall League. And I noted that the Cardinals had like a 4-22 slugging against divisional opponents. And that was like 20 points higher than they had against everybody else. i'm looking at paul goldschmidt now and he had 53 abs i wish those were plate appearances but it looks like something like 65

plate appearances against the pittsburgh pirates uh bested only by his uh plate appearances against the cubs reds and brewers, I only mentioned the Pirates first because he had a 736 slugging against them. Pretty good. 736 slugging against the Cubs. He had a 629 slugging. And against the Reds, he had a 597 slugging. The reason I mention all of these things

is that next year, he will simply have three games against those opponents so i do wonder what sort of performance quirks we saw last year will wash out a little bit uh when there's a more balanced schedule and everyone plays everyone next year yeah it's it's definitely an interesting thing to think about it's going to be a regular part of the conversation on any podcast you listen to i guess is this it was the pitching in the central as a whole was it as bad as it's being kind of painted to be does that change a lot's a bad hair day. I was a little distracted if you're watching

on YouTube. Just covering up the hair completely. It's going to be okay. I got the dad hat going today. It's the Brewer's alternate logo. If I had more hats, I would wear them. Sorry, you were saying? I've never seen you wear a hat.

Yeah, well, I used to have my hair was too big. Yeah, well, I used to have. My hair was too big. Also, though, hats increase your chance of balding. That is a fable, sir. That's not a real thing. It's got to be real. Is that backed up by scientific data? I know you spend a lot of time around ballplayers.

That's what I'm saying. That's where I got it. Also, when you wear a hat for a long time, doesn't your hair hurt? No. Your head hair, no? No, I think you're wearing your hats too tight. My head doesn't hurt after wearing a hat.

Anyway. Try a softer hat. You were saying something about the Brewers. Yeah, probably. No, it's the Brewers alternate logo on the hat. I think with the NL Central and the more balanced schedule and the importance of not necessarily over correcting for any one of those things because it's not a change taking place in isolation so i wonder if there could be people that go a little too far saying oh i'm gonna i'm

gonna fade the nl central hitters because their collective opponent difficulty will get worse or will be it'll be yeah it will be harder for them harder for the hitters because of the more balanced schedule and that's probably true but if it's two to three percent more difficult instead of eight to ten percent if people are adjusting for that that larger range then it probably doesn't come back to bite you if you still pursue someone like Goldschmidt at a high price or Arenado at a higher price than last year. Because there are a few Cardinals that pop quite a bit. Those two in particular really jump off the page.

So I'm trying to account for it, but I'm trying not to overreact to it, if that makes sense. Yeah. Yeah. It does make a lot of sense. Paul Goldschmidt is still a great player. I just hesitate sometimes also on the front of like, oh, we had these years from Freddie Freeman and Paul Goldschmidt. And so therefore, you know, old first baseman are a great bet because, you know, I just went through this with Joey Votto. because I just went through this with Joey Votto. And Joey Votto this year was on a few of my teams,

and you look at him, he is the biggest bust of the top 15 first baseman. He's the first really negative. Jared Walsh counts as well. really negative. Jared Walsh counts as well. But Joybot is right there about 20 picks later than Jared Walsh with a worse season. A minus $5 season. There's

just going to be a moment where it's not as cool anymore. I don't think Goldschmidt's quite there yet. That's why it's only going up around. I can't blame people for that. It's the typical age discount being

applied to someone that had an MVP caliber season. That's just the way it works. I would agree with you. I would not take two great seasons in the early and mid-30s for Freeman and for Goldschmidt and just say,

they age fine. First baseman are fine. They're safe because we do have more evidence pointing to the players just tailing off in a big way, especially as they get to Goldschmidt's age. So all of that is a long and winding way to say, like, I understand why people are cautious,

but I don't see a lot of actual underlying skills loss at all in Goldschmidt. Very, very small dip in barrel rate, but that's picking nits in a great season. I think the batting average category is where he probably loses something just based on normal regression there. Maybe a handful of homers, but I'd be surprised if a healthy Paul Goldschmidt in 2023 still doesn't pop 30 homers, Goldschmidt in 2023 still doesn't pop 30 homers hit a 280 ish sort of average and rack up a ton of counting stats because he just doesn't take days off and that lineup might even get a little bit better this year he's also in that really interesting go no go period place for uh stolen bases where he has some he has enough speed you know to steal bases and maybe with an extra five inches you know he goes up to like 15 and that's that's crazy that's like saying some guy who hit stole

15 last year is going to steal 30 next year you know like i do think there's going to be a little place where the note the extra five inches are huge where some people will double their saves their stolen base totals. And so I, you know, I would say, ah, yeah,

and he's getting older. He's only stole three bases in 2019 and a full season one in the short in 2020. Maybe we only get three stolen bases from him next year. Well, we also have this, you know, stolen base thing.

I mean, next year, this year that's coming is, it's going to be a poop show in fantasy. There are really significant rules going in different directions. It's going to be nuts. A few other observations from the top end of the first base pool. Vlad Jr. comes down from the 48 homers he hit

a year ago to 32, still very good. Doubled up his stolen base total from 4 to 8. Came down to a 274 average after hitting 311 a season ago. We did see the walk rate fall too, so only a 339 OBP. Still good counting stats overall. Played 160 games, kind of maxing out the volume on playing time. And if you said, what do you expect next my answer would be split the difference and sure enough you look at steamer the first projection

set available over on fan graphs right now and it kind of does that exactly you look at an average in the 290s you get a 369 obp you got 40 homers you got a few more runs, a few more RBIs than this season, but not quite as much as what we saw in 2021. And I think that is a big part of why, and age is a big part of why, he's still holding a place at the top of this position in the early drafts for 2023, even though when you look at the earned values for this season, he's behind the likes of Goldschmidt and Freeman and even Pete Alonso. Yeah, he's 23, dude.

23. I wanted to, yeah, I want to do some nitpicking and be like, I don't like that that ground ball rate came back up, you know. That's been the biggest source of concern for Vlad Guerrero, is that he hits the ball really hard, but on the ground. And he, you know, 52% ground ball rate last year. Not great for somebody who wanted to hit homers. He's 23 years old.

Ground ball rate, the aging curve on ground ball rate is that you hit fewer ground balls as you approach your peak. So that means he has, by aging curves, you know, three or four more years of improving that ground ball rate. So that's a, that's sort of a gentle nudge where you, you know, you're like, well, last year he had a 45% ground ball rate. And this year, you know, in 2022, a 52% ground ball rate. So, you know, you kind of throw this together and kind of regress them. But then there's also the aging curve gave me a gentle nudge towards fewer ground balls uh so that's i think why you get 40 from steamer as well it has a little bit to do with how players normally age and i'm into it man uh i i also think with an eight stolen base uh of number on his resume, that that could easily be, you know, 10 to 15 as well next year.

And just, you know, the rising tide will, you know, float all the boats. So maybe 10 or 15 next year is just the same as eight this year. But I don't think so. I actually think that we're going to see larger increases from that go, no go, you know go group of players. And I think Vlad Guerrero might actually be there. So that's just for people who are concerned with taking a first round pick that doesn't steal bases. I think that you don't want to put Vlad Guerrero Jr. in a doesn't steal bases category.

No, but he's 33rd percentile in sprint speed. And the success rates, you know, 8 for 11 is fine. That to me is not the let's push this guy more. I think he's the sort of player that if he hits 8 more home runs, you're probably going to lose a handful of bags because some of those opportunities go away. And then he's doing the things that he really wants to be doing to make himself as valuable as possible. And that pressure to steal a base kind of quietly goes away.

So even though the totals and even the efficiency are kind of where you could see him running more, I have a harder time seeing it with him. I'm looking for players like this who are just faster all around. I think this is a part of his game that will remain very limited for these next couple of years and it will disappear before he turns 30. I'd be stunned if he's stealing bases at 30. Yeah, it's not sticking around very long. The weird thing,

I think the thing that explains his last season is I heard I think Caitlin McGrath say this where she's like, he just didn't get hot. And if you look at his chase rates, it was the worst chase rate of his career and the second lowest zone swing, but the highest swing percentage of his career. I think that just reads a little bit like someone who was pressing all year to find that next gear. You know, it was we were always wondering, you know, why aren't the Blue Jays scoring more runs and kind of looking in his direction. So, um, you know, I think he was kind

of pressing all year and I think just having a hot beginning of the season next year, whether or not has anything to do with the shift, um, you know, I think could put him on a better pathway. I mean, if you just remember, uh, what, you know what his past best year was like in 2021, he just kind of started out on fire. I think he came back to earth a little bit, especially in terms of the ground ball rate in the second half.

We just remember the on-fire portion. I think that's still in there for him. I think he can totally have a season like that again. I'd love him as a player available at the 1-2 turn if you're in a snake situation. Definitely the player that could be

a top player in your budget for a salary cap build as well. No hesitation whatsoever as far as $30 plus in formats where that's what top end bats go for. I'm fine with the fact that I'm not expecting more than maybe a half dozen steals from him because I think he'll be great in every other category.

I think that Jay's offense might be a little more consistent this year as well. I mean, Beau Bichette had a rough year going until August. I think you get a normal year from him. That also has a little bit of a carryover effect for Vlad. Lourdes Gurriel stopped hitting homers. That was weird because he was hurt. You get a healthy Gurriel. That's another quality bat in that lineup.

So there's a couple little things that can also nudge that production up. So let's be clear. When it comes to shipping internationally, can I provide trade documents electronically? Mm-hmm. The answer is FedEx. Okay. But what about estimating duties and taxes on my shipments? How do I find all the...

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The 24-hour moisturizing body wash is infused with vitamin B3 complex and has notes of rose and cherry creme for a rich indulgent experience. Treat your senses with Nuole Indulgent Moisture Body Wash. Buy it today at major retailers. Freddie Freeman, I mean, just a metronome player at this point. I have nothing new to say on Freddie Freeman anymore. I think being with the Dodgers will just continue to help him push seasons in the $25 to $30 range, even as the skills fade.

And even before the skills fade, he's above that. He's a $35-plus guy coming out of 2022 again. We write down these little prop bet side things that we do, even though I don't really want to eat a hat. I don't think I said I would eat a hat but uh i think i lost the over under the crispy hat with the grill i i need a beanie first i think um uh the i think i lost the over under i think we were debating how many homers freeman would hit during this season because early on he was hitting a lot of oppo fly balls and they were doing very poorly and i believe i set the over under at 18 21 is not uh the 30s but i think he's

just settling in it's like you know look at the bell curve of a career i don't think he's going to hit 35 homers again uh i think he's going to settle in at 21 to 25. That's where he was every year before he kind of had a little power uptick in his peak years. And he's going to return back to kind of the 300, 400, 500 guy that he was in the early portion of his career, sort of 2011 to 2015. That's where he was sitting so i think that's what you get out of him but a 300 average is super super valuable he's a guy who will steal some bases uh and because he makes so much contact and has such a great eye at the plate and is on a good team uh i think those projections will light on the rbi i think he's going to have another 100 100100 year.

Yeah, I mean, when you look at the difference between Freeman's OBP from 2022 and Vlad Jr., you're talking about almost 70 points difference. It's a lot more opportunities to score runs, a lot more opportunities to steal bases. Freeman doesn't run better than Vlad Jr., really. 39th percentile sprint speed. So if there's a difference, it's marginally in his favor. Just on base more

right it's just more opportunities and we saw it 13 for 16 plenty of efficiency there they'll let him keep running that much he's older so quite a bit older he's already going to be 30 33 now so maybe he also is the guy that doesn't get that bump up to 18 to 20 but he'll keep running at the same rate that he's running at. The career high we just saw might be more possible now because of the changes to the bases and changes to the rules. Right. So I like Freeman quite a bit. I wonder if I'm a little more bullish on the power, I think, than you are.

And I'm not saying 30 plus, but I think high 20s are still a possibility for him because the barrel rate is still good. Hard hit rate is not really fading. It's not like he's hitting the ball on the ground a ton or anything like that. 38.7% ground ball rate is right in line with his career norms. It just goes the other way so much. Yeah, but he strikes me as the kind of hitter. I think we talked about this when it came up in season as someone who can make the adjustments over the course of a winter and come back and go to the pole side more to unlock that power more consistently and it might be worth the while with the shift rules too right he might decide that's

his best approach going forward so i'm cautiously optimistic that's true we could see a surge back in that category from him one thing i wonder about with, we don't talk about it very much, is the back issues that have come and gone. And I just wonder when those are going to become a little bit more frequent. And then he really cut

his swing strike rate early on in his career. He was an 11-12% swing strike rate guy that struck out 20% of the time and then he just cut that and in the last three seasons it's been eight and a half nine and a half eight and a half i mean that doesn't usually happen like i don't know what how he figured what he figured out i mean the background of this is that throughout the league, Velo is just going up.

Like from 2011 when he was striking out more often to 2022, I think the league added like two or three ticks of Velo. So the Velo's gone up and he's making more contact i just wonder at some point the age says the back injuries become more frequent and the strikeouts become more frequent i don't know when it's remarkable that with the back concerns he's played in 98.6 percent of a possible total of games going back to 2018 his five-year track record of health is as good as any player in the pool it's kind of freddie freeman and marcus simeon up there in a class of their own during that span plenty of other guys play you know 90 plus percent he does some things to mitigate it uh in terms of uh you know i was

talking to him about his approach during batting practice and you know he was practicing hitting line drives at the shortstop and uh i realized that that works for him because in batting practice he doesn't bend over uh and he bends more uh his back bends more during the games and i think that's because he doesn't want to bend his back during batting practice just a little weird thing that he's figured out to keep his back in better shape. We saw this a little bit with Mike Trout. We were like, oh my god, oh my god, back,

back, back. And he was like, yeah, I stretch a little more before games now. And he played really well coming off the outhouse. He really did. Made me feel stupid. Eh, well, he didn't need a hat for that one. One thing, yeah,'ve sort of felt that one happening as was happening i wouldn't i wouldn't have bet that a better hat on that one um one thing that i think is interesting about first base when you when you get past that that

top bit is just uh that you know third base it was a little bit more uniform at the back end. You know, it was pretty much just red at the bottom. We talked about how there weren't that many sleepers that worked out. First base did provide more sleepers. In terms of double-digit guys that went after the, you know, after pick 300, I'm going to, or, you know, around 250 even. Nate Lowe was at 242. You know, there's a $20 guy. Andrew Vaughn at 292 was an $11 guy.

Luis Arias, we've talked about him for every single position he's been at. We're just going to keep that going. Rowdy Tellez at 346 was a $14 guy. Alec Boehm at 380, 14. Yandy Diaz at 399 was a $14 guy. Alec Bohm at $380. $14. Yandy Diaz at $399. He was an $11 player. He's always there for you. $400. Christian Walker. $20 player. $409.

Seth Brown. $1150. Even $494. Jerickson Profar. $950. Who's that? Albert Pujols at $573. And Josh Naylor 583 11 dollars so uh and then of course uh obligatory brand injury reference the uh the the those are all great picks the problem is i just listed all of the good picks that happened after pick 240.

So there's also in there Brandon DeBelt, minus 7. Frank Schwindel, minus 6. Miguel Sano, minus 16. Mike Moustakis, who was on teams of mine, especially DC's, minus 7. Dominic Smith, minus 12. Yoshi Tsutsugo, minus 13 lamont wade i mean these are all team those are all players that you might have put in the same group where you'd be like oh i'll just get a first baseman from this group and you either you'd grab it in that bag you either got a snake

or you got a twizzler i don't know well i hate Twizzlers, but you know what I'm saying. That sounds like a great bag for you. Yeah, right. Well, what I'm saying is it is kind of like that because it's such a 50-50 proposition. And in the spreadsheet, you're like, oh, look at all that green light. I love it. Except you have to be right. You know what I mean? You have to be right.

Someone else can't swoop in on the player that you like. If you really like Nate Lowe, and I know you did, and I liked him. I think plenty of people. And I had to jump him a couple rounds to get him, you know? Yeah, other people also liked him. So therefore, there was a chance you missed out. And I think you probably went in expecting to have him as a corner. You weren't saying, I'm waiting all the way to Nate Lowe to make him my regular first base option.

He may have become that player for you over the course of the year. If you got Jared Walsh or Max Muncy or someone else earlier. Like in AL Labor, he was my first baseman. That's a little bit different. AL only is different, yeah. But for a mixed league, you weren't sitting back and saying, I can wait on first base because I know Nate Lowe is going to be awesome. It's like, well, no, no, no.

I'm going to take him as a corner because I think I can get a top 100 player 100, 150 picks after where he should go. And that's what happened. And that's totally fine. But the mid-tier, Max Muncy, it's injuries. That's it. He's an

injured guy. That's the only explanation for me as to why he struggled so much. Jared Walsh. Walsh ended up getting hurt pretty badly too. He played 118 games first though and did have some skills lost prior to the season ending injury. Thoracic outlet syndrome

for a first baseman. I just wonder how long he was playing with symptoms of that because of how quickly everything failed. He struck out more. He walked less he walked less barrel the ball less everything sort of broke down on him he did hit the ball in the air more often i guess if you're looking for one sort of silver lining but just knowing how devastating that injury can be it makes it tough to believe in him as an immediate bounce back candidate in 2023

barring some really encouraging news on the health front between now and opening day so i think that one is also probably just the he got hurt i think the other question i've always had with jared walsh was for a late breakout sort of player and for someone who in 2021 kind of showed us i think a better true talent line the partial season from in 2020 was just nothing but confusing, even though he was really productive on a per-game basis. How quickly does it fade for a late breakout sort of guy with a high 20s K rate like that? And was he going to make enough hard contact to offset his strikeout rate

if the strikeout rate went up? He had the unfortunate situation where he struck out more and didn't even sustain the barrel rate. So that kind of led to this fast collapse. Yeah. And there's, you know, there's always this chance that the projections just look at the poor numbers he put up while he was hurt and adjust for that. And then he gets fully healthy and comes back and is more like 2021 again. There is that chance. But I would say that the projections for him as a 108 WRC Plus guy,

as a guy who's just a little bit above average, is not great for a first baseman. I think the average first baseman this year, let me see if I can do this quickly, the average first baseman this year let me see if i can do this quickly uh the average first baseman had a 107 wrc plus right so it's really close to an average guy and in fantasy we're not we're not chasing the average guy so i think with walsh too look at the career numbers against lefties so far he He's at 198, 234, 365. It's a 60 WRC plus against lefties.

They're not going to give him that playing time. They're going to have someone on the bench that hits from the right side that collects that playing time, at least in the initial roster build. Maybe if that player gets hurt or struggles, maybe then there's a path for him to play every day again. But I would say you have big side platoon risk pretty clearly screaming in your face here. Yeah, and that's tough to bet on play every day again but i i would say you have big side platoon risk pretty you know clearly

screaming in your face here yeah that's and that's tough to bet on because uh you know where he was going at 118 you were saying i'm gonna get i'm gonna get a full-time guy so i think you got to push him down to like where last year uh luke voight and alex kerloff and spencer torkelson were going so around pick 200. Yeah. Or Brandon Belt territory maybe from a year ago. Like 246. Yeah.

I would be, I'd be looking at him. I think, you know, around then, now you're starting to talk about, is he going to be a capable corner infielder? And then you kind of take him and hope that the surgery took and, and,

you know, he goes back to 2019 numbers 20 uh 2021 numbers have we talked about dj lemay he with the other positions because i kind of feel like we keep swimming moving past him because we're like i'll talk about it somewhere else well okay i mean the things we know about the 2022 season is that opposite field power took a big hit and we know that dj lemayhew goes the other way because that's always been his approach and in yankee stadium especially as a right-handed hitter going the other way means going to the short porch in right field so there's a there's a complicated health situation with dj lemayhew too it's how much of it was the

change in the ball how much of it was uh change in the ball, how much of it was maybe not being even close to fully healthy for a significant portion of the season on top of the other environmental changes. Yeah, I'm willing. You know, I was never willing to pay the full

price, but as this price drops, I'm interested because it, you know, you look at this he still produced eight dollars of value last year you know and he was still eligible at three positions so as bad as it kind of was because you invested 134th pick in him last year and you were you're always saying where's the power if it becomes like a pick 200 situation next year, or even a pick 185 where Rizzo went this year, I'm, I'm, I'm become more interested in him again, because he's a guy who can, uh, you know, provide me some positional

flexibility and who's going to hit for a good average, uh, and could hit 15 homers and steal 10 bases next year. You know, it's on the board there. And for him to put this kind of stuff together with a hurt toe and all the other things he had going on, I actually find some silver lining in it. Yeah, I think you're probably always going to look at 2019, anyone looking at seasons from DJ LeMayhew, you're going to look at that and say, no, I'm not expecting that again.

The parts of that season you might expect again with health would be a run scored total that is at or near 100, and maybe an RBI count even that gets to the 70 to 80 range if he stays healthy. I think being at this age... As bad as the last two years were,

he got an 84 and a 74 in the run category. i think he's going to be an asset in runs and asset and batting average and then also just not not be a negative anywhere beyond that right and having you know multi-position eligibility still that's pretty nice as well he still qualifies at first second and third so to get a player like that and it is going to be around pick 200 at least in the early part of draft season, that makes a lot of sense because you can look at LeMahieu and compare him to Jake Cronenworth who also has multi-position

eligibility, at least was first base eligible entering this season. Let's see if he's still eligible there. Yeah, he just made it, just got to 20 games, so he'll stay first base eligible in the future. Where is he going in these drafts? Pick 170, only about two rounds earlier. That's still 30 picks of value, and I think they're very similar players for next year.

Yeah, just in terms of how much power you expect, where most of the value comes from, I think they're very similar players as well. We have a few young players at the position that are pretty tough to figure out. Let's start with the fun one, Vinny Pasquantino. Taking a peek at the early ADPs on him, right around pick 100 is the current ADP. I don't know if I feel confident in trying to project where he'll be going in April with precision, but I think it's earlier than that. I think there are a lot of people that like him. The nickname, the skills, the role, all of it.

These are all good things for Vinny Pasquantino. I think if you are a believer, I think you have to be ready to pony up what might be a top 75 or top 80 pick once we get to March and April. He has the

13th best projected WRC Plus next year by Steamer, tied with Paul Goldschmidt. Yeah, that's not going to drive up hype at all, right? Oh my god. Of course, that's not that doesn't

port over to fantasy value completely because, for example, Paul Goldschmidt is projected for 29 homers, Pascantino 24. Paul Goldschmidt is projected for 6 stolen bases, Pascantino 2. Paul Goldschmidt is projected for 91 RBI and

94 RBI and 91 runs. Pascantino is projected for 81 RBI and 74 runs. there's a lot of ways where that you know you can't just look at the wrc plus and say uh yes here's a goldschmidt light definitely not going to steal any bases i don't think he's in a really great position to uh turn all those doubles into homers either so in terms of kansas city so uh it could be a trap uh one thing that i just love about him is he gives me those mookie bets vibes with the walk rate and the strikeout rate i just love people who walk more than they strike out and hit for power uh

it's uh catnip for me so i I think, um, I don't know. I'll try to like, you know, take him where my projections say to take him, but I may, uh, I may target him a little bit. You're saying,

you know, it's like around, especially if it's around 100, I love him there. Uh, around seven, around 75. Where's he go?

Where's he, if he goes up to 75, what's he, who's he going up against? At the position, it's nobody unless Nathaniel Lowe moves with him. They're kind of right next to each other. Similar min, similar max. Again, very limited number.

18 drafts so far for early NFBC. But if you look at all positions, you'd be looking at Corey Seager versus Vinny Pasquantino. The guy that's done it a bunch of times or the guy that you want to see do it for a full season at the level for the first time. Yeah, okay. O'Neal Cruz. 75.

Well, I think that's going to be a pretty aggressive place for O'Neal Cruz too. Yeah, he's sitting there already. See, when you break stat cast like that, people tend to just get really excited. I think I may just have to be happy with my shares of O'Neal Cruz in Keeper Lakes. I wouldn't fault you if that's what you did. Are you taking Vinny Pasquantino ahead of Xander Bogarts? I mean, again, I realize there's a major difference in position there,

but that's the thing. If Vinny moves up, he's going ahead of guys like Xander Bogarts. He'd be going ahead of even some really good pitchers. I mean, you're talking Hugh Darvish going in that range. Tyler Glass now goes in that range. I know you've always liked Joe Musgrove, Zach Gallin. They go around pick 75. So the other

paths are all really good. That's kind of a big leap for me there. There's a lot of veteran names. At 100, you know, is when I like to take shots at a young player that might take a jump up into the top 50 or whatever. But at 75, a lot

of those veterans are just like, there's nothing wrong with him. What's wrong with Corey Seager? He's maybe one of the guys who will benefit the most from the new shift rule. Maybe he gets some helium because of that, right? That's going to make its way around. But then there's still Xander Bogarts and Joe Musgrove and all these capable number two, Zach Gallin.

I love Zach Gallin. I want Zach Gallin. I want Zach Gallin, and I want Vinny P a round or two later. Here's a current toss-up across positions. Eloy Jimenez versus Vinny Pasquantino. On that one, I might take Pasquantino. Neither one of them is going to steal many bases. Positional value between an outfielder and a first baseman might actually go towards the first baseman.

They're very similar skill sets, right? They're guys that make good contact and hit for power. But I think Pascantino's eye is a little bit better, and then you don't have all this injury history. He walks more and he strikes out less. Yeah. Yeah, so there I'm okay with Pascantino. Wow, they're only 10 months apart in age.

That's crazy. And we've seen Eloy for parts of four seasons in the big leagues already. It would be almost four full seasons if he'd been healthy during that time. Yeah, that's kind of a double-edged sword, right? Because Pascantino's 25. That means that reduces his upside in terms of maybe he won't ever be a 40 homer hitter. We're seeing him at his best

right now. At the same time, we're seeing him at his best right now. He's debuting into his peak range. I think the first time Vinny came up, at least as a prospect of the week on the show, I thought the age-to-level minor league production and skills

looked a lot like Nate Lowe. That was, to me, probably the most likely player in the big leagues that he turns into. But I might like to take him over Nate Lowe because Nate Lowe still, even though he's doing some work on it, he does go to the opposite field more

often, and so he's not going to benefit from these shift rules and it also means that the power to me is a little soft and a little bit um a little bit subject to variation year to year whereas pasquantino's you know has a little bit more pull power yeah and i think the thing that really shatters that comp is that you know low struck out less in the minors and then got to the big leagues and the strikeout rate jumped. That didn't happen for many past Quintino. So I do think he's showing a better ceiling. Swinging strike rate on a power hitter.

Cool. Yeah. So here's the DVR fun tip of the month, quarter? I don't know. I got to work on that segment name. Month? Quarter? I don't know. I've got to work on that segment name. When you look at projections, now and always, always look at the plate appearance count.

Because if you look, you were comparing them to Paul Goldschmidt, which I think is totally fine because you saw similarities in the WRC+. There's a pretty big gap in playing time projected for those two players. It's about 100 plate appearances more on Goldschmidt right now. And if Vinny gets all 666, those projections start to align better. Yep. So that would

be my case for Vinny Pasquantino relative to current projections is that I think he goes over on playing time. I don't think he's going to struggle. I think he's going to play well enough to keep the job and just be an everyday guy for them all season long. And I think that playing time count might end up being really similar.

And right now it's not reflected in the projection. So if you ran that through an auction calculator, it would be missed there as well. I also was not that far off on my Mookie Betts comparison. Mookie Betts has a 6.7% swing strike rate. Vinny Pascantino had a 6.6% last year. Vinny Pascantino had the same swing strike rate as Nico Horner, but a lot more power. Here are the power hitters in Vinny Pascantino's swing strike rate range. I love them all jose ramirez mookie bets jose altuve even will smith i love that um yeah there's not a lot of power hitters around here

juan soto alex bregman it's good players yeah it does it does make you think maybe more like 20 to 25 homers, right? There's not really a 30 homer guy there, although Atube, I think, has done it before. But still, just going to be a beautiful, beautiful line across the board. Whoa, what are you listening to this for? Wait, who's talking? You know you're driving a 2024 Ford Escape with available Alexa built in,

so you can change the music. Oh, yeah. Alexa, change station to 99.2. driving a 2024 Ford Escape with available Alexa built-in so you can change the music. Oh yeah, Alexa, change station to 99.2. See? Purchase a 2024 Escape ST-Line all-wheel drive with TechPak at 3.49% APR for 72 months with down payment. That's just $267 bi-weekly. Cash value of $40,294. Plus, eligible Ford owners get a $1,000 bonus. For details, visit your local Ford store or Ford.ca. You've always wanted to be part of something bigger than yourself. You live for experience and lead by example. You want the most out of life and realize what you're looking for is already in you. This is for you.

The Canadian Armed Forces. A message from the Government of Canada. I have a couple more questions for you pertaining to young players especially. Spencer Torkelson. Went 1-1 in the draft a few years ago, had a job to call his own, didn't really have any issues coming up through the Tigers system, kind of handled every stop very capably. I would say the only red flag, if there was one,

was maybe the low average at AAA over a partial season, but I wasn't looking at that and saying, stay away from Spencer Torkelson. I thought he was very safe, thought he was a good floor player, didn't think he'd get demoted, and they were very patient with him, to their credit. The Tigers waited a long time before sending Spencer Torkelson back to Toledo. Does it give you any concern that when he went back down,

he was less productive this year at AAA than he was in a similarly sized sample the previous year when he was playing at AAA for the first time? Yeah, yeah, that bothers me. Also, just watching him, looking at his spray charts, looking at where he plays his games at home, and then just looking at the shape of his season dude was lost and and he does not fit the park that he plays in so i know that he's projected for a 112 wrc plus by steamer and he's projected to be a useful player with a 320 obp and 20 homers. And I know that that might be enticing to some, but I don't know that I'm going to be one of those people because if you look at the spray chart over at Fangraphs right now,

he's a right center guy. And right center in Detroit is death. It's Death Valley. It's awful. It's, I think, and this is, I'm not 100% sure of this, but somebody that this is i'm not 100 sure of this but somebody that i truly trust is 100 sure of this it's further to right center than it's listed on the wall so for some reason why would you do that i don't know uh they they looked at uh they

looked at satellite imaging to to to make sure of this, but I don't know. I didn't do that. But if you look at his spray chart, he is obviously a right center guy, and he's trying to – he hits three or four homers down the line, but if you look at his fly balls, they're going to right center. It's an approach that's not going to work. Now, could he spend the offseason doing this? Yes, but

the offseason he's spending trying to unlock full power is going to do two things that are tough to do. One is go against everything he's been doing since, what, Little League? You know what I mean? This has been who he is is and he's got to go

against who he is and two what i've been talking about in terms of trying to unlock um you know pull side power means committing earlier we've got a guy who already struck out 25 percent of the time last year if he's going to commit earlier then you're going to see that swing strike rate go up to where the 12 he was in in triple a last year and the 26.5 strikeout rate so now you're going to see that swing strike rate go up to where the 12 percent he was in in triple a last year and the 26.5 percent strikeout rate so now you're talking about maybe he's going to come back and unlock the power but strike out 28 percent of the time so if that's the case then you know a 230 projected batting average might be high so now we're looking at a guy who's going to be like a 220 220 hitter uh maybe unlock the pull side power i just you know what i mean like it's yes he could fix it but i don't i don't see

i don't really look at anything that he did last year and be like oh at least he i mean the one thing that he didn't do was chase a lot so there's a decent eye in there. If he's got to commit earlier to unlock full side power, he's going to put a lot of pressure on that chase rate. How much do you look at someone like Andrew Vaughn and see how

he struggled? His situation was so odd because he didn't get to play in 2020 and he skipped from high A to the big leagues between 2019 and 2021. And they said, hey, go learn how to play left field, by the way, while you hit big league pitching for the first time. Because I think Vaughn's 2022 is probably where I would put Torkelson's ceiling for 2023. To me, that would be the most you would hope for from him. If that happens this season,

the most you would hope for from him. If that happens this season, you're thrilled as a Tigers fan. And that's 271, 321, 429, 17 homers. It's a good season. I can't see it, though, because Andrew Vaughn has a better hit tool. I mean, just even look at the Fangraphs hit tool grades.

55-70. Yeah. For him. And I know they have 50, 60 for Spencer Torkelson, but I would, you know, I think we have a little bit more, um,

you know, minor leagues, uh, strikeout rates and swing strike rates. So I would, I would just sort of revise that down to like, you know, 50 present,

you know, you know, if that, uh, so, uh, you know, I think Andrew Vaughn's hit tool, now Andrew Vaughn does chase more,

and he is a right center guy, so I think it is a good comp. You know, but I also think that his stadium is more forgiving for guys who go right center, and he just starts with that better hit tool. So I think throwing a 271 batting average on Spencer Torkelson next year,

I'd be very surprised. Yeah, again, for me, that's like the highest end outcome for him based on what we've seen so far. And you're much more likely to get something that's closer to that projection, which Steamer has the 232 mark right now for Spencer Torkelson. But Vaught is really

interesting to bring up one last thing. He's played now a thousand plate appearances in the big leagues and Steamer projects him to be better than he has been so far. I mean, is it just aging curves?

Is it... Like, what else are they looking at? Are they thinking he was unlucky at a 3-0-1 Bama for last year? I don't... Is it, you know, was he unlucky relative to his barrels? If he was, a lot of those were Opel barrels, so you're not going to... You know, you've got to adjust for that.

I'm a little surprised by that, and it is also interesting to note that Andrew Vaughn is almost a win below replacement on fan graphs for his career so far just doesn't seem like an outfielder

no he's miscast there but now with Ryu gone he could just get the regular everyday first base role. And that might improve his defensive numbers enough to make him the two-win player that Steamer projects. I don't think he's one of those

players that's at a risk of losing playing time because of his negative war. But it's been super interesting to see this and then to have Steamer be like, yeah, I see all this, and he's going to be even better next year.

Totally plausible, possible. It seems weird to use that as your baseline. Yeah, I'm with you there. We saw a little bit of Tristan Cassis this year. Injuries limited him to 27 games with the Red Sox, 72 at AAA before that opportunity. Played really well at the AAA level.

It was a 127 WRC+, and definitely kind of an older 22 by the end of the year, but a debut at 22 is absolutely nothing to sneeze at. What we saw at the end of the year was a slightly higher K rate, plenty of walks, kind of a low barrel rate, but fewer than 100 plate appearances. So it's just hard to have a meaningful takeaway. Also like a 57% ground ball rate, which he never was over 43 in the minors. Yeah, that just seems like very small sample noise to me. So it's almost a useless data point for me.

And I'm pretty optimistic. I think they're going to give him a chance to be an everyday or at least a big side platoon guy. And I think because the debut was okay, not great, and very limited in duration, I think that's also going to keep the price pretty reasonable for him. Yeah, I mean, some of the stats you would look at really early on in a career like this. duration i think that's also going to keep the price pretty reasonable for him yeah i mean some of the stats you would look like or look at really early on in a career like this uh they all look good like a very small chase rate uh very small swing strike rate so uh for a guy his big as big as he is um do you like what do you think is gonna happen with with Eric Hosmer? That is a problem. Just in terms of playing.

I mean, or do you like Cassidy split it? Why did they do that deal? Did they get somebody with Eric Hosmer? Why did they do that deal? Okay, they also got minor leaguers Corey Rozier and Max Ferguson and the Padres pay the rest of the deal. It's very

strange for me. Yeah, the Padres are paying all but the league minimum for each of the next three seasons on Hosmer. They don't have to keep Hosmer. I think there's I could be wrongmer. I think there's I could be wrong, but

I think the average I think the AAV resets when you're traded. So there's a luxury tax implication for the Padres, even though they're still stuck paying the remainder,

most of the remainder of the deal, it doesn't impact them the same way as if they had defated them themselves? A traded contract is recalculated to reflect the remaining actual dollars. I think that

Eric Hosmer's AAV on the luxury tax was higher when you just look at his whole deal. Because wasn't it like it was like a $150 million deal? Yeah, he had an opt-out that he could have exercised now. And of course, he didn't. He opted in for three for 39. So I imagine that the three for 39 is what stays on the books for calculation purposes.

And it was an eight-year 144. So the AAV before the trade was more. It was 18. Yeah. So they cut $5 million off of their luxury tax payroll by trading it. And the Red Sox, I guess,

were like, hey, this is a guy who might help us down the stretch. We're not paying the rest of the money we're paying him $700,000 and we get two minor leaguers we're just buying the minor leaguers I guess so you think they might just cut him

they could or they could just play him as a bench player just don't use him as a backup left hander bat off the bench part time guy it doesn't it's not it's not great but at that backup. Left-handed bat off the bench, part-time guy. Part-time DH. Yeah, it's not... I don't know. It's not great, but at that price it doesn't matter. If Casas plays well,

Eric Hosmer doesn't matter. Right. And if he doesn't play well, then you've got someone on the roster that can just step in and maybe be passable. Yeah. Hosmer's career, by the way, is just just so weird how much playing time are you projecting for Cassis then based on what we know right now here's the weird thing about

projections man and and why they're always wrong and they're still right you know what I mean like it's still right to do what you're doing but Tristan Cassis is either going to... If Tristan Kassas does what he's projected to do, which is a 122 WRC+, 124... We'll see a 124, yeah. So either the WRC-plus projection is wrong or the plate appearance projection is wrong. Because if he is a 124 WRC plus first baseman next year,

then he's going to get 650 or whatever. Right. So if he's a big side platoon guy that's productive, he's probably, based on projections, he's Josh Naylor at a minimum. And if he's able to even handle some lefties, then the playing time goes through the roof. You're right, because a 124 WRC plus

is definitely good enough to play and play a lot at first base. And in fact, given how splits normally work, it's good enough to play all the time. Because you just look at, if he's 124 overall, Because you just look at, if he's 124 overall, then he's, you know, 130 against righties and probably like 105, 110 against lefties, you know? I'm just looking at like normal splits, you know?

So if that's the case, then he can play against all guys. Like the higher that overall WRC plus gets, the more likely they can play against all guys like the higher that overall wrc plus gets the more likely they can play against anybody so you know i i maintain that if he had if he has a 124 wrc plus or better next year he's going to get all the playing time he wants um but the but the reason why you know you have a projection system hedge their bets like this is because it may not be that way and you have to bake that risk into the projection somehow you know you have to bake that risk into the projection somehow. You know, you have to bake that risk into the final auction calculator number or whatever you think they're worth, you know? And so, I mean, the Red Sox know this, right? They're like, well, we think Casas is going to be our first baseman. But also we have Eric Hosmer in case it doesn't work out.

They've hedged their bets. You got them in a league minimum rate now, too, because someone else is footing the bill. You can live with that. That's not a problem. No commitment. It's the type of player that I have a hard time buying because I'm like, what do I do if it doesn't work out? Yeah, I can understand that.

It's funny that he's right next to, Cassis is right next to Joey Manessis in ADP right now. So do you want the old success story, the surprising late breakout? He should have all the playing time he wants. Whereas the pressure on Cassis to perform is greater because of what the Red Sox seemingly want to do in 2023. Meneses plays until he gives the Nats a reason not to play him

over a long period of time. Whereas Cassis, if he goes cold for even a couple of weeks, suddenly they're starting to think twice about each spot they're using him in potentially i mean and it's funny steamer here has a projection of 115 for joey manessis which would suggest he's a little closer uh to maybe being platoon but he's a right hander um and they just give him the 637 plate appearances because they look at that depth chart and say, no, he's got to play.

So I think I would actually, and this might be a failing of mine as a player. I'm not saying this is the right thing to do. I think I would maybe take Manessis, but you've got a fairly high chase rate for a guy that does have a good hit tool. I think his numbers are a little better than Frank Schwindel's.

They are. But there is that sort of, what about Frank Schwindel that's in the back of my head when I look at his numbers. So yeah, Manessis has a better O-swing percentage by more than 5 percentage points than what Schwindel had last year.

Kind of a crazy reacher. He's kind of just reached everything. Almost 5 percentage points than what Schwindel had last year. Schwindel was kind of a crazy reacher. Yeah, he's kind of just reached everything. Almost 2 percentage points more in barrel rate for Joey Manessis. 7.5 to 10 or whatever. Yep, and more hard hit balls overall. 47.1% to 39.8%. So just based on what they did upon arrival as kind of late bloomers,

Manessis was kind of better in any way that we reasonably care about. And don't just be like, I can't take Manessis because Schwindel sucked last year. You know? Can't do that. Totally different players. Yeah, every player is different. Similar story, similar long wait to get the opportunity, which, you know, I will

fully admit I wondered if Schwindel was a cautionary tale for Manessis. He might be, but it's less likely tale for manessis he might be but it's less likely after seeing manessis for what we just got in 2022 than it was upon arrival yeah but then there's also you know he's 30 years old so the shape of of possible outcomes really favors casas i think it also depends like you know where i'm buying him if these guys if i'm buying these guys for a bench spot, then I'm buying Cassis. Because it's a bench spot

and I want to see, is he starting every day, early in the season? Does he have a good barrel rate? Does he have a chase rate? Am I going to hold on to him? If not, two weeks in, gone. I've got to keep moving. But if I'm taking him for a corner infield, I might want to rather have Joey Manessis

because I want the plate appearances. I want to be sure of my plate appearances. If I'm making the call today, I think I'm taking Cassis at the current prices. I think there's a better chance that Cassis might jump a few rounds at ADP, though. If we get to spring training, he's out there with the A lineup all the time. The best case for Manessas is he just does what he did last year in a bigger sample, right? Yeah. The best case for Casas is he does better than his projections

because he's a young player and projections don't always nail those guys. Exactly. A lot of interesting players we didn't get to because we're saving them for the preview episode. That'll be the difference. We didn't get to see Matt Mervis in the big leagues this year. We can't review 2022 Matt Mervis

because it's an incomplete. So we have a whole episode. Going forward. A whole Matt Mervis episode awaits you at some point later on this winter. So you have that to look forward to among hopefully a few other things.

If that's all you're looking forward to, please consult me and I'll try and help you find a few more things to get excited about. Cause there's plenty of things to be excited about. If you'd like to drop us an email rates and barrels at the athletic.com is the best way to do that. You can leave us a question under this video on YouTube.

If you're watching us there, be sure to hit the like button. You can find Eno on Twitter at Eno Saris. You can find me at Derek Van Ryper. If you would like a subscription to the athletic, they are just $1 a month at theathletic.com slash ratesandbarrels. Get that offer while you can. We have no idea how much longer that will actually be available.

That's going to do it for this episode of Rates and Barrels. We're back with you next week. Thanks for listening. Thank you.