Rates & Barrels - 2022 Shortstop Review

Episode Date: October 24, 2022

Eno and DVR discuss the 2022 shortstop pool. Was the position as deep and productive as expected? How can the shape of shortstop be leveraged in future seasons? What should we make of Wander Franco's injury-shortened campaign? Will Adalberto Mondesi find a path to full-time plate appearances? Rundown 6:04 Dansby Swanson's Massive Walk Year, Big FA Class 15:02 Injury Impact on 2022 Early Shortstops 20:25 Neverending Value at the Position? 25:05 Preparing for Oneil Cruz Helium 32:32 Swinging-Strike Rate Surprises 38:05 What to Make of Wander Franco's 2022? 48:45 Early Optimism for Adalberto Mondesi in 2023? 55:33 Favorite 2022 Pop-Up Shortstops 66:30 CJ Abrams and Early Underwhelming Statcast Numbers Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarris Follow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiper e-mail: [e-mail] Subscribe to the Rates & Barrels YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/c/RatesBarrels Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Try Tim's new Sweet Chili Chicken Loaded Wraps and Bowls today. Take your taste buds on an exciting new adventure for lunch or dinner with our delicious new Sweet Chili Sauce. It's time for Sweet Chili Chicken. It's time for Tim's. At participating restaurants in Canada for a limited time. Welcome to Rates and Barrels. It's Monday, October 24th. Derek Van Ryper here with Eno Saris.

We have four days before our next baseball because both league championship series ended over the weekend. We've got a Phillies-Astros World Series coming up. We'll break that down later in the week. On the 3-0 show, we'll have our preview episode going up. I think it's Wednesday evening. We're going to do a live stream with that, too. It should start around 3 o'clock on Wednesday. 3 o'clock Eastern,

that is. Be sure to follow us on Twitter if you'd like to get the details for how and where you can watch that. On this episode, we continue our positional review series, Eno, and we move on to shortstops, which are always one of the most fun positions to talk about because there are a lot of good players

playing shortstop in Major League Baseball right now. Yeah, that's where you put your best player, right? I think so. I think that's the right place to put them. Yeah, unless you're the giants well hey that seems mean to brandon crawford even though it wasn't intended to be no it just means unless you you've got an older team it is interesting to watch teams that don't have a great shortstop kind of try to funnel their way through it, it's rough. You know? And I once heard

from the Rockies, which not a team that we look to normally for guidance, that they like to be good up the middle. And first of all, duh. But second of all,

it is rough to watch a team that's not tried to be. And I think that's a little bit of the story of the Yankees right now. They tried to trade for Isaiah Kainer-Falefa. They signed Aaron Hicks. They traded for Harrison Bader. They're doing everything they can to try and be better and younger and more athletic up the middle. And it's just hard to do until you have that guy. So I wonder, you know, this is sneaking a peek ahead,

but I wonder if in San Francisco and New York, if you're going to see either a big signing for one of these short steps is available. Trey Turner, Carlos Correa, Dansby Swanson, and who am I missing out? One more. Turner, Swanson, Correa, Bogarts. Bogarts. So there are these four shortstops where you can sign your way to it, but then it's got to be like a short-term thing

because all those guys are going to be off of shortstop in what, three, five years three years i don't know i wouldn't i wouldn't give them the rest of their career at shortstop and so in fact i think it makes the most sense to sign those guys in places like new york and san francisco because you've got anthony volpe and you've got marco lu, and you're saying, we're eventually going to turn to these guys. But in the meantime, we need to have some star power shortstop. Yeah, I mean,

I think one of the interesting critiques coming out of the Yankees' swift elimination from the ALCS is that they didn't turn it over to at least one of their young shortstops sooner, right? Even if, I know you've been skeptical about Oswaldo Peraza, right? You've both Oswaldo and Oswald.

I'm a little skeptical for the same reason, which is they strike out a lot and they don't necessarily have the commensurate power for that kind of strikeout rate. Right. Oswald Peraza. I merged them into one player. Oswald Peraza, the shortstop. And Oswaldo Cabrera. Peraza is sort of the in-between, also a prospect, but not as good as Volpe option. If you looked at Kainer Falefa and you were saying, we're just going to play a really good defensive player here.

He's the older version. I think the worst case outcome for Peraza is that he's a younger version of Kainer Falefa. All glove, not a lot of bat. I think he's going to hit enough to be a better, more useful offensive player than Kainer Falefa has been. And I realize that Kainer Falefa has some fantasy appeal because he's stolen some bases, but his limitations as a real player, I think, are very well known. Also, it seemed like he was losing some arm strength there at the end of the season. Right. It might've been playing through an injury. That's entirely possible. I mean, this is one of those times a year where you just start to get more information

that helps you understand what was really happening. So anyway, all this is to say, it is strange to me that they didn't shake things up at the deadline in some capacity. If you didn't trade for the upgrade, why not see what you really have in those younger options? And yeah, I mean, they played Oswaldo Cabrera all over the place too. So I don't know. I see more of a super utility profile in Oswaldo Cabrera, and maybe Oswald Peraza has more of your backup infielder everywhere sort of profile. Maybe that's more the way you see him but either way I see both guys as depth pieces honestly I don't I don't know that I see either as

a foundational piece but Volpe I am excited about and so that's why I had been arguing late in the season just try Volpe uh because you could see this coming and uh this is a little bit of a segue but it is important to the shortstop position and it's still important to our conversation which is Isaiah Kainafalefa had the 41st out of 50th best arm by miles per hour by arm strength over at Baseball Savant

among shortstops so he was a bottom shelf arm at the position now the other names down there are not shortstops really Danny Mendick Dylan Moore, David Fletcher, Garrett at the position. Now, the other names down there are not shortstops, really. Danny Mendick, Dylan Moore, David Fletcher, Garrett Hampson, Tyra Estrada, Kyle Farmer,

Kevin Newman, Paul DeJong, I skipped a name, I skipped a name, Dansby Swanson was throwing 79 miles an hour. That's the 48th best arm strength out of 50. Also relevant is that Xander Bogarts was below average,

but Dansby Swanson being 48th. And now, you know, there was a pushback where someone said, well, how much how much, how much does this matter? You know, like we're talking about 79 versus 82. Like if you convert that to milliseconds and da, da, da,

da, da, da, da, da, da, da, da,

da, da, da, da, da, da, da, da,

da, da, da, da, da, And I was like, dude, there are a ton of bang,

bang plays at first place. Right. How about, um, arm strength relative to infielder depth though right if you play deeper you need a stronger arm you play closer to the hitter you don't necessarily need as strong of an arm it's still better to have the stronger arm i'm not right that's actually no that's really really smart thing but i would say i would spin a different way which is it allows you to play

deeper right which takes away it's more valuable to play deeper. Yes, range. You have way more range when you step back. So, you know, I think that's interesting. I think that if I was signing a player to be even a short term, short stop, I do think Dansby Swanson would be

my last of the four. Ordering them is difficult. Do you have an an order i think i would put dansby and carlos correa as the two at the bottom probably dansby last i think that makes some sense correa had the sixth best arm just i do think with carlos correa i've always believed on a per game basis that the the offensive capabilities he's had are legit. It's about injuries. We just saw Swanson hit this new level this season, which made him the second most valuable shortstop in the pool.

I didn't see that coming. No one did. And he's at the age where you don't necessarily expect multiple follow up seasons. This might be a career year where everything else is only 80% is good, and that's okay. That's fine if he does that for a while. So I would put Swanson at the bottom, Correa ahead of Swanson because of the injury concerns. I'd go Bogarts over Correa, and I'd put Turner at the top, which maybe is too much of a fantasy mindset, but I also think Turner might be the best overall athlete of the bunch.

And even if he were to have to move off of shortstop before the end of a long-term deal, he could play center field. He could play center. Yeah. I think actually out of the four, he could be my center fielder. I think he could be the best center fielder out of the four.

Which is wild that a guy that will eventually, in the next couple of years, be on the wrong side of 30 could play like that but we've seen a handful of center fielders that have actually stuck at the position longer than expected i think that's the sort of speed and agility that trey turner brings to the table so i think you've got a little more flexibility with that you and i know this people listen to this podcast know this trey turner's overall ability as a hitter has been a little bit underrated because when he broke in, it was speed

and hit tool and then some power and the power's been there fairly consistently now over the course of these last, let's say, four seasons, five seasons? Ever since he injured his finger. Yeah, I mean, he's got a career 302, 355, 487

hitter. I think most people would have had that slugging percentage a lot lower if they were projecting it out at the beginning of his career there aren't really signs of the power fading all that much barrel rate's been right around seven and a half percent this year and last year it was a little higher than that in the shortened season but that was a shortened season that looks like an outlier so all this is to say like this is the best combination for me of durability, skills that should age well, and some flexibility with how you can use the player over the

life of the contract. I think it makes a lot of sense for the Giants, but he doesn't fit their profile in a couple ways, which is that he does chase balls a little bit, and he's a little bit more hit tool than power. And in fact, I think that makes him a great addition to the Giants

because he would be a different sort of player than the Giants have. He would be their short-term shortstop, their long-term center fielder, a bridge to Marco Luciano, and a guy who just plays the game a little bit differently than the guys they have. An injection of youth and speed and defense, I think it makes a lot of sense for the Giants. I do think the Dodgers will make a good bid to keep him.

I do wonder about it in fantasy a little bit because, again, it's not the type of profile that I usually go after in terms of, let's say, is he soft at all on steals? We've seen 32, we've seen 27. What if he does go to San Francisco next year and he hits 285 with 15 homers and 18 steals? That's a possible outcome, right? Yes, it is. A couple things. I think it's easy to underrate the value of a 285 average

over everyday playing time. Should come with good runs and RBI via the top of the lineup. Probably a tick less in both of those categories than he had with the Dodgers this year, though, because no matter how much they improve the lineup in San Francisco, you're not going to say that Giants lineup in 2023

is as good. So I do think there's a couple problems with Trey Turner. The playing time volume was maxed out this year. Sullen bases came down just slightly, and we're picking Nitz to be completely clear. That O-swing percentage did go through the roof. Can we trust that as a one-year blip? 36.4% O-swing percentage.

That's up more than five percentage points from his career average in that mark. Or is the league finding a hole? Is the league finding a hole, or was he just trying to earn a $300 million contract every time he stepped into the box? There's also that temptation. Highest swing rate, highest swing rate, so just overall most aggressive year. Right. I think there's way more good than bad in this profile so if your favorite team backs up the the truck full of money and dumps it all over trey turner i mean hopefully they don't do that that might hurt him you should be happy you

should be really excited about that if you have a chance to draft him in the top five again in 2023 i think you should do that i think he belongs belongs in that space again, because there are so many ways he can get to the $25 plus valuation that you want, and he can easily get you $30 or $35 again if he does keep running as much as he's running. I'm in on that. It's really interesting. He did step back from last year, right? He was, by ADP, a number one pick, he did step back from last year, and yet he was still a top three player overall. So that says to me, he's still worth a very high pick. I don't know if it's necessarily number one, but probably number one again, because he could regress and be what? A top five player overall or a top 10 player overall. And that's still what you want out of your top pick. or a top 10 player overall,

and that's still what you want out of your top pick. It's probably more like Jose Ramirez's profile. It's kind of like that, but with Turner, we saw a higher speed ceiling at one point. That's the difference between them, but they're both crazy stable with the ability to help in basically every category, and I think you look at Turner with a safer batting average floor and a better batting average ceiling

than Ramirez has. Yeah, I'm a little interested with an extreme pull hitter like Ramirez. If the batting average goes up next year, he might be more valuable than Trey Turner. A handful of batting average points would be nice for sure, but we can move on from Turner.

Still love him. Still belongs up there excited to see where he ends up playing next year and I'll move Swanson up a little bit but you know I see that 18 steals you know almost double his previous career high um you know as as regressing pretty hardcore and uh I'd value him probably next year something along his career lines of maybe a 260 hitter, 22 homers and 10 steals

that'd be my back of the napkin projection without knowing where he's ending up some risk that in dynasty leagues he moves off the position in the coming years but that definitely is higher than where do we end where do you end up

average draft position wise? He was 120th pick. I think he's going to move up from there. Right. So if you look back at how the players were clustered last season, last draft season, I was looking at the April drafts again, Trey Turner and Bo Bichette were top five guys, Turner going one, one, a lot of times Bichette consistently somewhere in the early part of round one. Then you had this cluster of established top 50 overall players from the pick 30 to pick 50 range. You had Tim Anderson. That's where it all went wrong a little bit.

It was a mess. Injuries. This is a mess, yeah. Tim Anderson, Trevor Story, Marcus Simeon, Fernando Tatis Jr. That was a little bit of a minefield there. Right, and then of course Bogarts and Lindor were actually part of that by the end of draft season too. I mean, Bogarts I think was there the whole time,

and I think Lindor had a little bit of a late season boost, but I think that's sort of the back end of the range, like the top 50 is probably where Dansby Swanson ends up going consistently. He'll pass a bunch of guys that were back at the top 100 guys. Javier Baez is going to drop. People were drafting him inside the top 75 last year. Jorge Polanco is going to drop.

Corey Seager will be up. Adalberto Mondesi is going to drop. Adalberto Mondesi will fall. You have a handful of fallers in that range. I think there's some other young guys we're going to talk about that are really tough to value. I would say that Swanson probably jumps into the top 10. Top 10 at the position.

Yeah, so that would make him around a 70th pick overall. The skills are stable overall. I do think the lower average in 2021 probably misleads us a little bit. He hit.248 that season, but he did it with a high barrel rate. Doesn't have terrible swing decisions or anything like that underneath. He draws his blocks. The K rate's a little bit. He hit.248 that season, but he did it with a high barrel rate. Doesn't have terrible swing decisions or anything like that underneath. He draws his blocks. The K rate's a little high. That's probably the thing that you look at and say,

it's hard to sustain a good or very good batting average when you strike out more than 25% of the time. The stolen bases, the uptick in stolen bases, that was the surprise. Doubling up the steals total, I didn't see that coming for Dansby Swanson. I just thought, 8-10 bags.

20 homers, 8-10 bags. Man, it sure seems like if you want some surprise steals, you pick someone who's heading into a contract year. Makes sense, right? You're trying to do everything you can to show teams that you can provide a lot of value. Doesn't always work that way. No, but you have

to have the raw ability to do it. And that was at least apparent 9 for 12 last year, 5 for 5 in the shortened season, a couple of 10 steal seasons before that. Like there was evidence he could run.

I just shouldn't have been as quick to dismiss the possibility, I guess, of the batting average going back in the right direction. And here's the big thing. If you overlook Dansby Swanson last year, I think here's the biggest lesson. If you overlook Dansby Swanson last year, I think here's

the biggest lesson. Part of what makes shortstops so appealing as players that you can use in the middle infield and possibly even use at utility right now, because there's so many of them, is that it's one of the positions where players rarely share playing time. So when you take a player who rarely shares playing time and you put them in a lineup as good as the one that Dansby Swanson was in in Atlanta, you get ridiculous counting stats. So you put good skills and a high, high volume of playing time in that lineup. Everything can pop at once. So I think that's where when you start to find guys that drop outside the top 100 who have clear holds on the job and at least stable skills across the board, that's a sweet spot to invest in.

Yeah, I used that to my advantage. I had a fair amount of Dancy Swanson shares in 15 team leagues. I ended up being my MI in a couple places because I would rather, like, because of the reasons you just said, I'd rather fill my mi with a short stop than a second baseman there's too many second base time shares whereas uh shortstop there's fewer of them and then and then in our 10 team league uh which uh i ended up uh battling you and nesbit and and successfully winning um winning. He was my starting shortstop just because

I just waited and I just saw these guys go by and I said, all right, Swanson, I'm going to take you late. But other late shortstops that were useful to me, I generally, I did not punt the position, but I generally waited past a lot of those minefields. I had maybe a couple shares of Tim Anderson but I avoided a lot of those minefields. I also did not have many shares of Xander Bogarts or

Tim Anderson or Trevor Story and would try to come back in and take a bite of the apple late. Maybe I had a couple of Wanda Francos, some Seager, but I like that. And I think that if you're just looking at who accrued value that was like that this Later picks, Willie Adamas, Ahmed Rosario, Jeremy Pena, Nico Horner, who might be able to do it again next year,

Jorge Mateo. I can't believe it. Elvis Andrews really cannot believe it. He's not going to do it again. Yeah, you get to spend the offseason thinking about Jorge Mateo because he's just messes with you. You've always wanted to be part of something bigger than yourself. You live for experience and lead by example.

You want the most out of life and realize what you're looking for is already in you. This is for you. The Canadian Armed Forces. A message from the Government of Canada. So let's be clear. When it comes to shipping internationally, can I provide trade documents electronically? Mm-hmm. The answer is FedEx.

Okay. But what about estimating duties and taxes on my shipments? How do I find all the... Also FedEx. Impressive. Is there a regulatory specialist I can ask about? FedEx. Oh.

But let's say that... FedEx. What a... FedEx. Thanks. No more questions. Always your answer for international shipping. FedEx. Where now meets next. I think Willie Adames is pretty interesting because he is very similar to what I described with Dansby Swanson. There's no one pushing him for his job.

So long as he's healthy, he plays every day. It's at least an average lineup right now. We'll see what they do over the course of the offseason. People't seem to be pushing him up in early early drafts he was a late eighth round pick of the first draft i did a few weeks ago so perfectly fine in that spot i think the fun thing about shortstop is that you don't necessarily have to target shortstops early you won't get punished if you don't, but you're not making a tactical error if you do take a shortstop early, which is not...

There are some positions that if there's a lot of depth, you kind of make a mistake by swimming in the pool too early. Shortstop, I don't think, is like that because the quality is better. Because the top-end talent are the best players in the game, yeah.

A lot of the top-end guys do everything. That's kind of the key. if there's an excuse for us missing on the paul goldschmidt's and freddie freeman's every year is because we're not sure that we can't just do as well later because those guys you know goldschmidt does steal some bases but those guys traditionally at the top of the first base uh spot do stuff that we think we can get later, which is, you know, power. And I'm beginning to reach the point where I think first base is becoming a position that you need to invest in earlier because of how teams treat it,

sharing the playing time. And if my choice is, let's say we're in like round four, round five, and we've got equally valued shortstop first base options, and maybe it's even one of the shortstops that don't run as much.

So we're talking about Corey Seager is probably a great example of this because he doesn't steal bases. If we're looking at Corey Seager versus the equivalent first baseman, I might be more inclined to take that first baseman. I don't know if that's going to be Matt Olsen or Jose Abreu, who that's going to be exactly in that range, but somebody will be in that range. Because as you move further and further down at first base,

once you get outside the top 150 overall, especially a lot of first basemen are much more susceptible to losing playing time, to sharing time, to being big side platoon players, to losing the job outright. Josh Naylor, Trey Mancini, Ryan Mountcastle, Andrew Vaughn. These are all guys that had $5 to $10 valuations this year that won't play as much as their equivalent shortstop. Right.

So I just think the abundance of shortstops makes me comfortable waiting if I don't like the shape of the board with other positions or other categorical needs at the time. So I would keep that in mind. You can use this depth really to your advantage. I think of the disappointing early guys, Marcus Simeon ended up being good after a slow start. Like very good. So I think he could probably hold his draft position.

I don't really think he's going to fall much from where he's at. He's not going to be a shortstop, right? It's true, but I think he'll still be heavily coveted in that early range, in that top 50 overall. He's not even showing up in the auction calculator because of that. Yeah, I think he pretty much only played second base because Seager stayed pretty healthy. Trevor Story is the guy that I really like

because our friend Ryan Bloomfield at Baseball HQ outlined it in one tweet. This is the summary. This is a great summary. So he signed with the Red Sox in March. New place after a long time in Colorado. Tough to leave Colorado anyway. Had a kid a week later. Got food poisoning in April.

Got hit in the head in April. And fractured his wrist in July. That's the disaster season right there. That's every weird thing. And Kevin Kidd's not weird. Everything that could shake up your life as a ballplayer, it pretty much all happened to Trevor Story in one year. So unless you see something in underlying skills that you didn't like even prior to

this season, I find it really difficult to pass on Story. It will almost certainly be a discount. He won't be a shortstop next year either. So you have that concern. For me, it was arm strength, which is relevant to our earlier conversation. I just didn't think he would play much shortstop. And I didn't think he would be a great shortstop going forward.

So that's relevant to Swanson. Maybe Swanson signs as a second baseman. Yeah, can't rule it out. No, but in any case, yeah, I think Story's a good bounce back candidate. Just not at the shortstop position. We're working on the shortstop position. Although we are looking backwards. Looking backwards.

That's how we're entering the pool this way. Willie Adamas, for me, is a comp for someone who's going to have a lot more hype next year and I wonder if I'll just end up with Willie Adamas because of the price. Could happen. O'Neal Cruz. Mmm. Alright, so you want to talk about the young players? I always want to talk about the young players.

Okay. What do we do with a player who is by most StatCast metrics amazing? A god. Unlike anything we do with a player who is by most stat cast metrics. Amazing. A God. Unlike anything we've ever seen in stat cast from the shortstop. Stanton at shortstop.

Yeah. The, the six, seven, 220 pound left-handed hitting shortstop that breaks that cast. What do you do when we've got 370 career plate appearances from him that we've seen power, we've seen speed, and we've seen a 235, 295, 456 line to go with it because he's got a 35% K rate so far? Do you see enough in the process stats to believe that he can take a big step forward

in 2023? he can take a big step forward in 2023 because I think O'Neal Cruz does all the things that people overpay for without proof of consistency in production. He does the things we like, so there's going to be hype and helium because that's just the kind of player he is. Yeah, I think he'll end up at least in the Bobby Witt area. You think he's going to go that early? Like, why wouldn't you, if you took Bobby Witt in the fifth Witt area? You think he's going to go that early? Like, why wouldn't you, if you took Bobby Witt in the fifth and sixth round,

why wouldn't you take O'Neal Cruz? Because he's already struck out so much? That's a fair argument. I've wondered about this for a long time. Does it hurt you more to come up to the big leagues and struggle than to not play in the big leagues at all?

As far as how people treat you and value you as a player. I think that's definitely true. I think sometimes if a team wants to trade a player it's i think that's definitely true i think sometimes uh if they if a team wants to trade a player they'll leave in the minors they don't want them to come up and struggle um you know so yeah i i i do think that is a fair question if you look at o'neill's o'neill cruz's uh reach his chase rate, it definitely went down. He was in the 40% in the first 40 or 50 games,

and then he got it down to, in the last 50, 40, 50 games, he was down to around 25%. So he definitely improved that big time. What's weird is that the strikeout rate in the meantime went up. is that the strikeout rate in the meantime went up. And it was only the last 10 or 15 games when he finally really cut his strikeout rate. And so I don't know what to do with that. The shape of his strikeout rate improvement is weird.

It went up and then down a little bit and then up again and then down a little bit and then up again and then down a little bit and then up again and then down at the very end. Generally seemed to be getting worse over the course of the season. As far as 80 games into the season he had a rolling strikeout rate of

45%. It's going to be a tough one for me, especially if he's going higher than Adamas. Now, I get it because O'Neal Cruz is going to steal more bases than Willie Adamas next year. especially if he's going higher than Adamas. Now, I get it because O'Neal Cruz is going to steal more bases than Willie Adamas next year. But if he's going higher than Adamas, Adamas has had some roller coasters with his strikeout rate, but he's gotten it back down. He's going to be safely under 30% probably next year. He does have good power, good barrel rates. He was second in

barrel rate to O'Neal Cruz among shortstops. So he's got the barrel rate to o'neill cruz among short stops so he's got the barrel rate uh and he is going to steal some bases uh why not just take adamas a few rounds later and lose the risk of maybe having like a 196 hitter or a 210 hitter instead be like I got a 240 hitter who's going to hit 30 homers and steal 7-10 back. There's just so much in the Adames profile that reminds me of what we just saw from Dansby Swanson. I was talking about how Swanson's average in 2021 was down in the 240s. It bounced back this year up in the 270s. In the past, we've seen Willie Adames hitting the high 250s, low 260s. He's down in the high 230s this year.

Worst map of his career last year. Right, but he's still hitting the ball hard. He's still hitting the ball hard. He has the same kind of strikeout rate, draws enough walks. He has the same kind of balls in his career, so that's a little bit related maybe. But he runs a little bit too, and he might be the kind of player, as we've talked about in recent episodes, who takes off even more because of the changes that we're seeing

with the limitations in throwing over, the bigger bags, those things that might actually increase stolen bases a little bit. He's right in that window where he could go from stealing eight bags to 14 or 15 bags, and it wouldn't be stunning. I would point out that he probably has a little bit less in his previous career track record than Swanson as far as stolen bases. previous career track record than Swanson as far as stolen bases. He doesn't have a 10-steal season in the big leagues that you can look back at and go, double digits, it's happened before. But he does tick a lot of the boxes as someone that might take off a little bit more as we look ahead. All this is to say, going back to Cruz, I think the best way for me to compare someone like Cruz to someone like Bobby Witt Jr.

is to actually take away the big league results for a minute and just look at how they did level to level in the minors. And I think with Witt in 2021, we saw a player who was 40% better than Lee Garage at AA and AAA. And he did that turning, I think he turned 21, like mid-season a year ago. He just turned 22 in June. Cruz was close to that level at AA, a little older, 136 WRC plus in 2021, didn't have the same level of success at AAA, and I wonder if the difference is pitchers at AAA being able to exploit the bigger strike zone that Cruz has a little more effectively. If that's a unique problem to him.

Better command. Yeah, just part of the issue. It could just take him a little bit longer to make those adjustments because pinpoint command is going to be really effective against the guy that has that giant zone. But as we've seen, his plate coverage is absurd. He can hit everything. He can hit balls at his ankles. That's what he does. So if you're going to put him at the Bobby Witt range,

I don't think you're wrong in terms of how people are going to react to power, speed, and all this stuff. And that Bobby Witt next year is going to go up. Right, this year. Where Bobby Witt went this year. Pick 60 to pick 75, somewhere in that range for most of draft season. I probably have to pass for this year, but I passed on wit too. And if you drafted wit in that range, you ended up being totally fine. So I had a good year. I'm okay with that. I can live with not having every fun player on my rosters. I just think if that's where we're going price wise, because of the stability all over at this position, this is an area, this is a position in particular where I don't want to take on unnecessary risk. He could be in that minefield. Could be.

He could be on that level, and for different reasons, but on that level of taking Tatis where some people took him last year. Yeah, very, very different reasons, but yeah. He's probably going to be good. I'm not sure, though. And he'll be taking around place. People will be much more sure. One last thing about O'Neal Cruz that I find interesting is swing strike rate was 13.7%. Here is a list of players that had a higher swing strike rate.

Same or higher swing strike rate as uh o'neill cruz last year cory seager dansby swanson rafael devers julio rodriguez jay martinez jorge mateo jeremy pena interesting to me that jeremy pena had a much higher uh swing strike rate and yet a lower strikeout rate and I think we're watching Jeremy Pena get as much helium maybe as O'Neal Cruz and yet he had the same sort of difficult to read progression over the course of the year. His chase rate went up as the season went along and his strikeout rate generally went up until the very end of the season. You were mentioning he had some injuries

though. Yeah, and I think if you kind of look at what he was doing at the beginning of the season and then what happened after his first, I think it was a stint on the IL in June? Yeah, the June injury that got him. There was a pretty big

downturn in production. I mean, there was a point earlier in the season that you wrote about Jeremy Pena. Did you pick him for Rookie of the Year? He was your AL Rookie of the Year? I picked Kwon, but yeah, I had it as Kwon, Pena, and Rodriguez. Okay. Either way, you were very high on a Jeremy Pena breakout, and it looked like you were dead on in the first part of the season.

I don't think you were necessarily wrong. I think he just got hurt, and it took a while for him to really get healthy again. The second half of the season dragged that OPS down by almost 100 points. 558 plate appearances this year is like 100 more than you had before. Right. So a 253-289- 426 line during the regular season. I thought there was a very good chance Peña was going to struggle to crack the top 150 ADP-wise coming off that, even though there was power and speed, and he ticks those boxes of being an everyday player in a great lineup. Those are the things you absolutely want.

But now, ALCS MVP, having a great postseason overall, that's going to do something. MVP, having a great postseason overall, that's going to do something. It might not drive him all the way up to the Cruz range, but he's probably going to be closer to pick 100 or pick 120 than he was going to be to the back of the top 150 or even outside the top 150, and that's going to make it a tougher decision relative to what it was. He's going to go after Cruz, though, right? I think so. I think there will be more excitement and hype in O'Neal Cruz

than there is on Jeremy Pena. And Pena might be the better pick, man. I mean, you've got a 10% barrel rate, 111 max EV, a better strikeout rate. I mean, yeah, there's some weirdness with he does chase and his walk rate's not good and his rookie season was inconsistent. and his rookie season was inconsistent, but I think you'd project him for a better batting average than O'Neal Cruz. You wouldn't project him for more power, but you would project him for a decent amount of power. He stole 11 bags in his first season, and you could see him stealing as many as 20 bags next season.

So you're talking about a guy who has the upside of like 275, 25, 15 maybe next year. O'Neal Cruz has the upside of what? 250, 30, 30. Yeah. But if you're talking downsides, I would say Jeremy Pena

has the downside next year of 250, oh just sort of repeating yeah and that's not going to break you in the middle rounds no in fact that would be that like what was that what was that worth this year by the auction calculator 13 bucks he was like the 15th best shortstop yep yeah pena looks like a really good weight on him, am I? So what you're hoping for is a bad world series. I don't think that's going to happen. And I also think even if it did,

there's still more interest now than there was even just a few weeks ago. I think he's done enough to show people that there's a lot to like in that profile. People would have found that, I think, with the power-speed combo alone. Power-speed combo and a batting average that didn't hurt you in that lineup, as long as there's no one there to really push him for playing time, that was still going to be, I think, a trendy mid-round MI sort of pick. And now he might be a fringy top-10 shortstop in the eyes of some people. So curious to see where that one goes for sure.

Whoa, what are you listening to this for? Wait, who's talking? You know you're driving a 2024 Ford Escape with available Alexa built in, so you can change the music. Oh yeah, Alexa, change station to 99.2. See? Purchase a 2024 Escape ST line all-wheel drive

with tech pack at 3.49% APR for 72 months with down payment. That's just $267 bi-weekly. Cash value of $40,294. Plus, eligible Ford owners get a $1,000 bonus. For details, visit your local Ford store or Ford.ca. Where do we go from here with Wander? You know, I think we had a ton of conversation about Wander back during draft season.

I think there was a point, if I remember correctly, and last episode was good proof that we don't remember things really well because the reason Aaron Judge was sliding at the end of draft season was the vaccine mandates in New York and the uncertainty around that and his status and being able to play in home games on top of possible Toronto games. So that was the reminder. I still think the injury is more of a reason.

It was a thing that people were worried about though. I do remember a few people reached out and said, Hey, that was going on. I was like, yeah, you're right. That was right at that.

That's true. I guess pinpoint right before the start of the season. Anyway, what are we doing with wander? Because this was a lost season, I think due to the injury for the most part. And even before he got hurt, he was not getting to the game power the

way that some people, you know, this guy especially, some people expected a lot more to start showing up and it didn't happen yet. So do you go back to the well and expect the unexpected from Wander or how much of a discount are you looking for? I'm just, I don't know what to make of this sort of half season we got from him where if you didn't know the backstory, you wouldn't be that excited about what he did. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, the handmaid bone, I think there's a question of whether or not it actually saps your power.

I think mechanically it doesn't sap your power. It just adds, it adds pain. there's a question of whether or not it actually saps your power. I think mechanically it doesn't sap your power. It just adds in, it adds pain. And I think we saw him try to come back and then be like, no, it's still too painful, right? Like there was a little start and stop to his recovery process.

So I think the handmade bone did end up sapping some of his power. We still saw a guy who hit a ball 112 this year with a sub 10 uh strikeout rate uh like even if i make it sub 15 strikeout rate you know uh who else did that yandy diaz did that jose ramirez did that max kepler did that um i think that's the end of the list let me go to the second page here real quick uh that's the end of the list yeah so it's a really short list of people uh that can hit the ball that have shown the ability freddie freeman did that so it's a really short list of people who can make that much contact and hit the ball 112 now there is some there is some risk that he is yandy diaz right ground ball ray it's possible but very very unlikely because he doesn't he's not he's not

putting up 50s in the ground ball rate i mean it's as simple as that he does hit the ball on the ground a little bit too much but it's not like andy diaz so i think wanda franco is going to be a a really super enticing pick next year i mean if you just prorate out uh his season you're talking about a guy who 277 with you know 11 homers and 15 stolen bases now that doesn't sound amazing but you know that is going to be uh i would say a back-end top 20 shortstop and that's last year that's like a bad year so uh i'm gonna be really interested late in guys like jeremy payne and nico horner and wander franco yeah see here's the thing i wonder what late really looks like. I ruined the experiment in the draft that I was in.

I took him in the seventh round in that league that Todd Zola and I run. Talked about that league a little bit the last couple weeks. But that is late relative to their... I think that's late relative to their upside. Nico maybe a little bit has to be a little bit later because the power is still emerging. But if you're talking about taking Jeremy Pena or Wander Franco seventh round

or later, I'm interested. Yeah, the order for what it's worth. We took Wander, then Ahmed Rosario went, then Javier Baez went in the same round. Xander Bogarts was still on the board. There's an early discount on Bogarts that I'd be happy to take as well. I think there's also just an always

ever-present discount on shortst that I'd be happy to take. Well, I think there's also just an always ever present discount on short stops that don't run. Yep. Bet you Corey Seager didn't go that high in your draft either. In this draft a year ago, he didn't go early, but he went at the end of the fourth round this year because he just put together a great season outside of Los Angeles. Maybe also one of the guys who benefit the most from the new shifting rule.

I'm obviously in on Wander. I'm looking back at some previous seasons. Sorry, I cut you off. Where did Wander go? Seventh round. We took him in the seventh. You said it went Wander. It was ahead of Ahmed Rosario, ahead of Baez, ahead of Bogarts. Willie Adames went around later. Believe me,

we were thinking about more than just Wander in the spot, looking at all these shortstops. We knew there was going to be a run. Peña went at the end of round nine. Carlos Correa went at the end of round ten. There is an abundance of value at this position. An abundance. Nico Horner went in the 11th. I like it a little bit

like closers, where I want one of the very top ones, and then I want to avoid that soft middle. And that might be where Dansby Swanson jumps into, you know what I mean? want one of the very top ones and then I want to avoid that soft middle. That might be where Dansby Swanson jumps into. You know what I mean? It might be where O'Neal Cruz is. We've been talking about traps.

I wonder if the trap in this position next year are the guys that jump up too high off of a too good of a season and then the o'neill cruz hype machine how far that goes so maybe maybe it'll still be safe to take turner and lindor and uh bobby witt jr you know in the top three i kind of like those three as the top three

but maybe the next four are a little bit trappy. Maybe. And then you want to jump back in when it comes to Franco, Adames, Pena. So I took a rookie leaderboard. It wasn't a rookie leaderboard per se. I took an under 23 leaderboard going back to 2010, minimum 250 plate appearances in a season,

sorted by strikeout rate for hitters. Because Wander's 9.6% K rate is absurdly good. Oh, this is a good one. This is not an O'Neal Cruz one. No, no, no. It starts off a little scary. So under 23, K rate's lower than what Wander just did in 2022 in this injured season.

Luis Urias in 2019, the lowest, 7.9%. Anderton Simmons, 2013, 8.4%. Ben Revere, 2011, 8.5%. Ben Revere doesn't hit the ball hard. We know. It's not the same kind of player. Sal Perez, 8.9% back in 2012.

He only walked 3.9% of the time, but that was a pretty fun season. Then you got Wander. Now this gets really interesting. Jose Ramirez in 2016. Jose Ramirez is the comp. In fact, there's like a story element to this. Like, Wander

loves Jose Ramirez. I mean, the profiles for the age are so similar in terms of patience, in terms of hit tool, in terms of power, having some speed. And the athleticism is, I'm sorry, is a little better on the wanderer. Yeah, but Jose Ramirez deserves so much more credit than he deserves for the type of player that he is.

Yeah, maybe I'm wrong. Maybe I'm just looking at that belly. Why is he shaped like that and still such an athlete? It's like a little. It's amazing. It's what makes it amazing is that how does jose altuve do what he does how does alejandro kirk move the like the way he does jose altuve looks like he could be fast like you don't look at jose ramirez be like oh yeah 25

stolen bases yeah fair he looked a bit different when he came into the league that's true it looked quite a bit different probably a little bit a little bit more like Wander. Yeah. So, okay. Other players in this range. Alejandro Kirk. Nice low K rate. Different kind of player. But I like him.

Mookie Betts. Yeah. It was a 31 homer, 26 steal season, though. So that was pretty huge. Jose Ramirez again. Mookie Betts is the reason we love this profile. There are two Jose Ramirez seasons on here. 2015, which wasn't as good because it was a 72 WRC plus season and 2016, which was kind of that big first step forward with 11 homers, 22 steals over a full season and a 119 WRC plus. So I think we have we have a few guys who have been frequent early rounders easy first rounders that had similar

starts to their career mostly it's jose ramirez i would say you know i i think revere you can just really drop out because he did never had that i don't think a rise and simmons really had uh like we don't have max exit velocities on the early career? We do with Arias, maybe. Simmons had some power back then. How hard has Arias hit the ball? Yeah, so look at Arias' max EVs. 102, 104. Right, it's all hit tool. Yeah, so there are guys...

He's a little bit more in the Ben Revere category. Now, Anderton Simmons, we don't have max EVs for early career, like for the very early career, but we do, like for the very early career, but we do have for his fourth MLB season where he hit the ball 109. Still not as hard as Franco. I guess Anderton Simmons is a little bit of a warning sign, but even then, the ground ball rates are higher than Franco's. And I just, then, like as Ian Conn might say,

gotta use your eyes a little bit. Wander Franco does not look like Anderson Simms. So, I think this is a Jose Ramirez situation. Kind of get the sense, too, that Wander, for the first time in his career, had a season that he was also probably disappointed with. And this is, again, soft sciences, but I tend to think he's not comfortable with that.

He's a determined guy. Yeah, he's a determined guy. Like he seems very driven. He does not seem like he's shrugging that one off and going, eh, whatever. It seems like the kind of guy that's going to go hit literally a million balls this offseason and come back and just mash.

I'm making up narrative. I get that. But man, I'm still in. What are their stats to support the narrative? Yeah, I just think incredible hit tool with more power. The raw power is there. The ground ball rate's not that bad. Yeah, incredible hit tool. So he's 61st percentile

in sprint speed, so he runs pretty well. He's 61st percentile in sprint speed so he runs pretty well he's 29th percentile in arm strength oh which whatever doesn't he's still gonna play every day it's not gonna hurt his playing time he's still 21 years old but just throwing that out it does speak to maybe long term where where do they find the position for him yeah i feel like i'm just picking nits on everything today, which is part of the job, I guess. Yeah, it's all right. I mean, we generally love him, and we're in on him.

Yeah. A player that I don't know what to do with at all is Adalberto Mondesi, right? Changes in Kansas City. I imagine he's just not part of their plan anymore. I've never been in on him, and I've never drafted him. I have never had a single share of Adalberto Mondesi across all of my leagues, across all the chances I have had to have him. And I wonder if this is the year where I finally get him just because he's so cheap.

He's got to be cheap, right? Or is he still going to be like, still people are going to be like, oh, but when he's, he's still got these, he's dripping with tools and upside. Like, oh, but when he's still got these, he's dripping with tools and upside. Well, I think people are still going to have an interest in him because there's always going to be the possibility that he steals bases. No matter what. Yeah. No matter what kind of role he has. He still has that 43 steal season on his resume. In 443 plate appearances.

In my aforementioned early draft that you're all tired of me talking about. First pick of round 18. So if you're getting that kind of discount, even as someone who's never had him before, I suspect if you're chasing speed a little bit, you might throw that dart. Because if Adalberto Mondesi goes somewhere else, it's probably to a team that believes he can be an everyday player. Still has shortstop eligibility, has non-zero power, does not have a very likely path to a good

batting average just awful awful plate skills just really bottom tier like maybe first percentile plate skills agreed sorry what do we like about him again no No, he can barrel the ball, and he's fast, and the defense might keep him on the field. Guys that fast usually don't barrel the ball like that, even if they have a very bad approach. So, yeah, I do think bargain basement flyer, TJ Maxx clearance shelf version of Adalberto Mondesi might actually be worth picking up.

I wonder if the new regime will trade him. What if he ended up... Where would he end up? The Pirates? For a pitcher? Well, here's the other side of this question. You got to put on the GM pants. Put on your Lululemon pants, as Britt told us.

Imagine having Adalberto Mondesi next to O'Neal Cruz. Oh, God. That's like a StatCast lab experiment. It'd be so much fun to watch except for the 40% K rate you'd get from two guys in your lineup. But every single thing they did would have the pop-up

bubble of like StatCast. Oh, yeah. It would be great. Twitter would love it. I kind of dig it. So that was the fastest double play turn. You know, that was the strongest arm strength on a double play turn ever. Combined the combined velo of the double. They just average 98 miles an hour on a double play turn.

OK, I kind of want this to happen now, but put on the Lululemon pants, you know, and tell me, you're running a team that is not projected to be a playoff team in 2023. Are you consciously going to the Royals and trying to give them something they want for Mondesi because you believe you can get more out of him? Do you think there's anything in the approach that you can still improve? I mean, is this approach worse than Javier Baez's approach? Or is it at least seemingly more malleable because he's a little younger? There's this weird thing where he's improving his chase rate and strikeout rates

going up. So I think I would maybe tell him, swing away, dude. Just be yourself. Just be your most utter self and just swing. Because I don't think he has a good sense of where the zone is. And if he can chase more, but get to those homers before he strikes out and get the strikeout rate, like he has a tantalizing one year on his resume where he

struck out 27% of the time and was 13% better than league average. It was only for half a season, but that's the kind of modesty I'd be chasing after. I think it's still possible that it's in there. I'm looking at the 2018 and 2019 seasons for modesty, but those K rates, that power and that speed, he plays up the middle and I'm thinking, hmm, we just saw Jorge Mateo do some things that no one really expected other than Ian Kahn.

Ian saw it. I don't think anyone else did. I think I'd be paying DFA prices. That's where I would want to come in there. So you're not really making a big time. You're just sort of like, would what I, nothing like what I claim him if they DFA him. Oh yeah,

baby. I would love to claim him. So I think I, you know, to step above, you know, claiming a DFA is sending him someone. You might DFA.

That's true. Yeah. Here's a guy. We don't really believe in anymore. You give us the guy. You don't really believe in anymore. And maybe we both end up happy or less sad. Would I go one more step into someone that we don't really believe in, but we wouldn't DFA? Maybe. Would I send them someone I believe in? I don't know.

Here's the what could go right sort of comp. This is why people still believe in Adalberto Mondesi. leave in alberto mondesi it's that you see players like mateo and adelise garcia and you see those guys come through and they do it with i mean in the first the first season athleticism and great tools adelise had that 31.2 k rate 5.1 walk rate in 2021 and because the second half was really a pretty big step back the power and the d will float the rest of the package it works and with health with extended playing time, you can talk yourself into the possibility of the plate skills still getting a little bit better, right? Because Adelise Garcia,

age 29, lowered his K rate a little bit to 27.9%, and upped the walk rate slightly to 6.1%. If you can see that happen in players that have similar tools, you can't write off Mondesi completely. It's a really bad combination of injuries, PD suspension way back when.

It's a mess on paper. But at the same time, he still has some tools that are standout tools. And for teams that aren't necessarily built to win immediately, for teams that have lots of plate appearances available, it can make a lot of sense. Who is your sort of favorite pop-up? You know, I think I've already

shown my hand a little bit with Nico Horner, but your pop-up, you know, Jorge Mateo types. Who do you like? So I provide to you as fodder. These are guys that were close to positive value veterans that popped a little bit,

and that would be Bryson Stott, Haseong Kim, Jorge Mateo, Nico Horner, Luis Urias. Who do you like the best out of that group? I might still be on Urias more than the others. I do think Bryson Stott was a slightly different player upon coming back, right? He was demoted, I want to say, in May or June and then came back and looked quite a bit better

in that next run with the Phillies. He has that O-swing graph that you want to see. Where, you know, he really cut his chase rate when he came back. Yeah, so it's a low barrel rate, only 4.4%. It's a little bit of a question. It started going back up again. That's so weird. How committed do you think they are to him next season? He's their shortstop.

He's clearly their shortstop. He's their shortstop. I think the 4% barrel rate on 108 max EV, I like the strikeout rate, and the home park will help float that power to where this should be a true talent, 8 home run, 10 home run hitter over a course of a season. I think maybe he hits 15 homers and steals 15 bases. But with that kind of power, you also have some batting average risk because you're just not going to hit your way to a lot of hits.

Like you're not going to hit a lot of doubles either. So, you know, I think he's maybe my back of the napkin projection is like 250, 12, 15. Yeah, it's a little more monoleague draft and hold worthy than a player that you definitely want to go get in, especially in 12s. Maybe in 15 team mixed leagues, he can be a bench sort of middle infielder for you, given that he can do a little bit of everything. Nico Horner is my guy, dude. Yeah, Horner. You've liked Horner for a while. And now you've got the track record. You've got some evidence that it's working. That's got to make you feel good. He's increased his max EV every season. He's increased his barrel rate every season. They're bad. You know, 2.6% barrel rate is bad. It's a bad barrel rate,

but he's elite at hit tool. He added 20 steals. And even if he takes a step up to that Bryson Stott territory, or beyond, he's going to be better than Bryson Stott. He's going to have a plus batting average.

He's going to steal way more bags. And my back of the napkin projection for Horner next year is 280 uh maybe uh 12 15 which is stott ask except for the batting average and i see more upside i just see and i also see more work having been done you know what i. There's more adjustments in his rear view mirror. He speaks of being more aggressive, trying to hit for more power.

I think next year an upside projection would be 280 2020. Maybe even 25 stolen back. He stole 20 in 517 play differences and the, and it's only been easier to steal bases next year.

So possible Scott does something similar. It is, but it's more probable from Horner. I think. Yeah. More hit tool. I'd agree with that. I think that's,

that's how they're going to be treated. I think you're going to get Scott at a, at a pretty nice, a late sort of valuation, like 15th round or later, pretty consistently. So easily outside the top 200, unless he wins the world series MVP, pretty nice late sort of valuation, like 15th round or later, pretty consistently. So easily outside the top 200, unless he wins the World Series MVP.

It's like four homers in the World Series. And in that case, all bets are off. Then Helium comes back into play in a pretty big way for us. Anything else at this position that really caught your eye? I thought, even though he's not necessarily a shortstop on an everyday basis, he kind of plays all over, Tyro Estrada really stood out for us. He was a guy that looked interesting from a stat cast perspective at the end of 2021.

We just talked about him as a really deep league, let's see what happens sort of player. It turned out he put together a good year 14 homers 21 steals did it in 541 plate appearances i don't know how year over year sustainable it is part-time shortstop though he doesn't fit in our narrative no no he's he's still a tough player to to like expect for an everyday role but he's good enough to be on your bench. And I think the giants have enough ways to get them on the field where it can continue to work.

Is it, is this similar to what we saw maybe from Josh Rojas too, where you look at this and say, okay, it's, I don't know where exactly it fits, but it fits enough places where we should keep trusting him. Yeah.

Yeah. I, yeah. I did struggle to value him in an OBP league. I was trying to maybe trade for him in an OBP league with a listener. What up, Matt? Matt Eddy from Baseball America and Devil's Rejects. We were struggling a little bit to value him because in obp uh i just don't know where that obp settles in it could be 300 or it could be 340 next year you know um he does not have you know great chase rate walk rate sort of uh skills there but in terms of being an athlete who can field the position,

steal some bags, hit some homers, make a good contact, he fits in an undervalued bin, which I think is those types of players that are pretty good at most facets of the game. Not really anything that you're like,

that's elite. You know, who was I thinking of? You know, Haseon Kim're like that's elite um you know who did who was i thinking of uh you know haseong kim is like that right and somebody said well isn't haseong kim's defense elite because you know he's a shortstop and i was like yes but among shortstops it's sort of averages you know so maybe yes uh you know in a pool of all players tyro estrada his defense is elite but among short stops it's average or below and i think uh estrada and kim share that you know just pretty good at everything uh sort of uh line um that uh makes them great picks i think the deeper your league gets yep yeah the more it's a mono league or a draft and hold you know both of those guys um you might be able to have some multi-eligibility.

They're not going to pop for anybody where anybody's like, I have to have those guys, but they could cover a position for you and they're going to go out there and post. They look like guys that can post every day or at least every day in a given timeframe when you need them, give you double digit homers and steals

and a batting average that won't hurt you. So the deeper the league is, the more I like him in Estrada. Yeah, I guess this is kind of a philosophical question too. When you think about these players that can play multiple spots, they could end up with three quarters or even 80% of an everyday role because they move around and the team around them is competitive and has some other options they're mixing and matching how do you compare them in your willingness to roster them in more traditional leagues to someone like cj abrams who hasn't shown the big league skills yet but is so young missed so much time in the minors with injuries. To me, I'm more likely to take the late flyer on Abrams

in a 15-team mixed league that's not a drafted hold than I am to take the chance even a little earlier on Estrada or Kim. It's possible because what you can do is see Abrams for a couple weeks on your bench and then you could maybe just trade him in for the next Estrada or Kim, right? Right.

Because someone who's established themselves is playing a lot. And you say, OK, well, the Abrams thing didn't work out. Let me just get these guys. But I have to say, from a roster standpoint, over the course of the season, I would love to have someone like Kim or Estrada on my bench. Because what I'm trying to do is not feel like I have to cover every position with every part of my bench. You know, that was the thing that stood out to me in NSC this year is, you know, having four hitters on my bench because I felt like I have to cover these potential injuries, you know, and the more

that you have a guy that has multi-position that will play 80% of the time, the more you bring up the floor and you say, hey, if I get hurt at second, short, M-I, C-I, you know, I can stick one of these guys in. So I'm not sure that Estrada and Kim fit that really well because it might just be short, second, and M-I. But the more you can have guys like that in your first position on your bench, the more flexible you can be to even take a shot on an Abrams type. So I think that I agree with you that I'm more likely to take the shot on Abrams, but I think maybe the right play is actually the veteran. Yeah, I guess it really depends on how confident you are in being able to find those players. That might be the difference between a 12-team league and a 15-team league. If you're playing in the online championship, you're more likely to find the multi-position bench guy that's not starting right now on the early season wire.

If you're in a 15-team league, those players, the known ones at least, get scooped up. The main event almost looked like a mono-league waiver wire sometimes. I don't know how that works out because it's the same number. It's still just a 15-team league. For some reason, every time I looked at the wire, I was like, this is terrible. Maybe that was just over the course of the season. Maybe we just picked it well,

picked it clean well. The deeper the league, the more I like those types of players that are just above average and a lot of facets of the game last question for this episode i know there's a lot of short stops we didn't talk about we'll talk about them on the preview episode a few months from now and you know always questions and things on twitter are welcome too but with abrams he's so young and he's

missed so much time i'm not ready to hold stack cast numbers against him yet, even though I think it's okay to be aware and to be concerned about possible limitations or even try and shape a better understanding of how long it might take for more power to develop or whatever it is you're looking for. 91st percentile sprint speed for a guy that's going to play every day he's going to try and find ways to manufacture runs in that lineup because the gnats are going to be bad so i think green lights galore for cj abrams when he's on base he will get chances to run and then the max exit velocity being in the 57th percentile for a guy that he's listed", 185. He's pretty lean right now. But being 6'2", he can add, he's still so young, he can add muscle. He could come back 15, 20 pounds stronger in any given offseason. That is absolutely projectable for a player that size. Seeing some max exit velocity there gives me a little more hope that while we're not seeing the barrel rates that we're looking for, only five barrels on 238 bad balls in his rookie season, I'm not giving him a pass,

but I'm also saying there's still some power to tap into here. He's 22. No matter what your power aging curve looks like, it's got to have, even if you're talking stat cast and there's got to be some growth from 22 to 26 in power. Your physical peak is not 22 years old. There's no way that's the case. And we've seen with ground ball rate that ground ball rate aging curves say that you hit fewer ground balls until you're 26. So if the question is just turning some of those 110s,

something between 100 and 110, into more fly walls, that should happen. And so you would see a natural progression would have him seeing peak around 45% ground balls maybe over the next three years. So there could be a peak season in here that is better than it looks right now. I'll have to say a 1.7 walk rate and uh a chase rate like he showed is not normally what i go for but to have a chase rate as bad as he showed and also only k 17 of the time shows a pretty good hit tool so yeah good hit tool elite sprinting ability decent max ev there's

there's some stuff to to believe on here i'm i'm only going to take him in places where it won't hurt me you know what i mean yeah bench picks bench picks, sure. But a good bench player to have, I think, just given the range of outcomes here and the possibility of some growth in even just one or two categories, that might be enough for him to return a lot of value in 2023. Yeah, like what if he just puts up a season like Nico Horner just did?

That's kind of the statistical comp that makes sense. And I think if you... And Nico Horner's, in a 15-team league, Nico Horner's last season was worth $13. And it was a top 20 shortstop. Could he hit 275 with 20 steals and 10 homers next year? Well, yeah, he could. And he doesn't have to.

The valuation on steals is going to be so different next year. Probably, yeah. We'll see how much that changes things. Yeah, but don't give up just yet, even though the initial production has been light. I think that age-to-level production we saw in AA especially is still encouraging. We've seen good walk rates in the past.

All that missed time with injuries, being a little bit of an up-and-down guy initially on a team that had playoff aspirations this year. That was all a pretty challenging way to break into the league. And then getting traded as a young player and going to a new place, I wouldn't just dismiss that as, oh, it's no big deal. It's kind of a big deal

to make those kinds of adjustments as well. We are going to wrap things up for this episode. If you've got a question for a future episode, ratesandbarrels at theathletic.com is the best way to reach us via email. You can also leave us a comment under the video on YouTube. You can find Eno on Twitter at Eno Saris. You can find me at

Derek Van Ryper. If you'd like a subscription to The Athletic, it's a dollar a month for the first six months at theathletic.com slash ratesandbarrels. We are back with you next week. Thanks for listening.