Rates & Barrels - 2024 Team Previews: Braves, Phillies & Mets

Episode Date: March 7, 2024

Eno and DVR finish up their 2024 Team Preview series with the Braves, Phillies, and Mets. What's next for the Atlanta lineup after an excellent 2023 that featured five players among the league's 20 biggest risers in wRC+? With quality young pitching depth, is the rotation stronger than ever behind Spencer Strider, Max Fried, and Chris Sale? Will the Phillies get even more from Trea Turner during his second season in Philly? Behind Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola, which starting pitchers are most likely to deliver quality innings? Will the retooling Mets exceed expectations with a potentially underrated lineup and a pitching staff with a few intriguing rebound candidates? Rundown 4:13 2024 Atlanta Braves Preview 9:25 Jarred Kelenic's Fresh Start in Atlanta 18:01 Good Pitching Getting Even Better? 28:24 2024 Philadelphia Phillies Preview 37:16 Starters of Interest Behind Zack Wheeler & Aaron Nola 44:01 2024 New York Mets Preview 50:11 Buying the Mets' Rebound Candidates in the Rotation (Luis Severino, Sean Manaea & Tylor Megill) Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarris Follow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiper e-mail: [e-mail] Join our Discord: https://discord.gg/FyBa9f3wFe Join us on Fridays at 1p ET/10a PT for our new livestream episodes w/Trevor May! https://www.youtube.com/c/ratesbarrels Subscribe to The Athletic for just $2/month for the first year: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels Please fill out a quick survey to share your podcast habits with us by going to theathletic.com/survey24. Three lucky entries will win $100 worth of Amazon vouchers! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Welcome to Raids and Barrels, Thursday, March 7th, day 4 of Eno in Arizona, episode 3 with Eno in Arizona. And three with Eno in Arizona. And this is when we're going to finish up our team preview series. The last three teams, all from the NLEs. We have the Braves, the Phillies, and the Mets on tap for today. So three very interesting teams. A lot of other housekeeping to get to real quick. We have a listener survey that is up right now.

We're looking for some feedback about you and your podcast habits. The Athletic has put together a survey. It should take about 10 minutes. Thealatif.com slash survey 24 is the URL. I'll put that in the show description. You can click through on that. Good news is three lucky entrants will win $100 worth of Amazon vouchers for filling out that survey. So we appreciate everybody who takes a few moments to go ahead and do that. The discord is open. We'll put the link for that in the show notes as well.

Be sure to jump in there. If you haven't done so already, you know, how's it going for you on this Thursday? It looks like you did okay after roasting in the sun for an hour in Peoria on Tuesday. It's better now that I'm not in my Airbnb. Uh, I don't know if anybody saw my tweet, but I'm on the 11th floor of a building and the elevator doesn't work, which really sucked yesterday because I ran

eight miles and then had to go up and down 11 flights of stairs. Actually it's 12 because of the mezzanine or whatever. There's a pervasive smell of meat in my room. I don't know why. It's not super unpleasant, but it is always there, which is like kind of gets annoying after a while. Like you're trying to go to bed and it smells like meat. The Wi-Fi didn't work for a couple of days. And my bed is a sofa bed. I don't know why I'm in like basically what looks like a hotel room. It's in a high rise. It's great. It's

a sofa bed. So despite all those things, I am well rested today, have kept up with my miles, have not eaten the very worst food. I've had a bunch of... Yesterday, I had eight tacos. So I am taco-ing my way through spring training. Today, I got to talk to Brady Singer about his new force name in Sweeper. Today I got to talk to Brady Singer about his new force name and sweeper. Nelson Velazquez about game power versus raw power and MJ Melendez as well. So it was a good morning as well. It's weird to me that you ate eight tacos yesterday and you think the pervasive meat smell is coming from the Airbnb. Are you sure it's not just you that you don't regive meat in your smell yourself?

I got the meat sweats. Yes. That's what it sounds like. Oh, no. That'd be the first thing I asked my family when I pick them up Friday night. Do I smell like meat? I love you too. My personal record for taco was in a day 15. It was set in 2003, so it's been a long time.

That spring training? No, no, I a- Fast spring training? No, no, I wasn't at spring training. It was on a drive back from Dallas to Milwaukee. So you hit up all the Texas taco places. They weren't high quality tacos. I mean, I was in college. They were mostly like fast food grade tacos, so.

Oh, oh, that sort of thing. I'm gonna try and do this with good tacos someday because I feel like now I've got the means, I have the knowledge, I sort of thing. I'm gonna try and do this with good tacos someday because I feel like now I've got the means, I have the knowledge, I've matured. So 15 will be the record that I will break at some point in the near future. I do have a food recommendation then, considering my taco situation.

Buque Bici Brewery is a Mexican-owned and run brewery that had a great Schwarz beer and beautiful tacos that I really enjoyed. So that's where I was last night. That's where I'm headed next time I go to Arizona because that record is going down. Let's get to our Braves preview. This is a loaded lineup, you know, and this is the team five of the top 20. WRC plus Improvers from 2022 to 2023

were regulars in this lineup. Acunha was number one. He was plus 56. Marcellozuna was fourth plus 50. Matt Olson was sixth plus 40. Eddie Rosario was 10th plus 38. Kind of got back to being league average, to being well below league average. And Ozzy Albee's plus 30 was 18th. It seems like up and down the entire lineup, everybody who could have gone off last year pretty much did across this group. And it just leads to a pretty obvious question of like, what else can they do? Can they get even better? Are they a lot to regress just a little because they were so off the charts good across the board last year?

I don't have any strong case beyond just simple mathematical regression for saying these guys are going to decline because the way they did it across the board was really impressive. Superstars like Ronald O'Koonia Jr. and Matt Olson are going to toggle around some sort of higher mean. So, yes, they could regress and still be 40% better than they average. That's amazing. And so, yes, there could be some regression there, but I do think this is such

a good young lineup still, peak of their their careers lineup that there are other guys that actually could do better Michael Harris the second had a 115 WRC plus last year and improved his chase rate I think there might be another level for him and that could cover some regression from the top You've got a young player that replaced Eddie Rosario And so at least the potential for better than league average play exists from that spot. I think Sean Murphy might have another level. You know, he got injured and his season was kind of, you know, pretty different if you cut it into halves around that injury. And then Ozzy Albees, it was a really great season for him. I guess I would bake in a little bit of regression for him there as a team, though,

I would say maybe the pitching can step forward and cover some of the regression from the offense as well. Yeah, I'm thinking with you, though, on the areas of potential growth, I mean, Harris in particular, when he came back from his injury last year, he was hitting the ball hard. He wasn't really getting rewarded for it. That leveled out over time. It ended up being a small step forward in terms of the underlying numbers with that K rate getting a for it. That leveled out over time. It ended up being a small step forward

in terms of the underlying numbers with that K-rate getting a lot better, but also the hard hit rate creeping up and the ground ball rate coming down. So if you give him a full season, which he should get given the way they handle players in this team, given the value of his defense in center field, that could nudge him up even further. The projections have him at 596 plate appearances, 281, 20 homers, 25 steals. That's from the Bad X and that's with great run in RBI production. That all makes sense to me. You're going to pay for it because he's going to go probably end of round two beginning around three, but I think it's justified at this point. Basically, I don't see value here because you're getting superstars that don't get days off. I guess I also wonder is there a downside to

Playing your core as much as Atlanta plays its core. Well that eventually catch up to them and Grind some of these guys down a little bit faster than if they were getting preventative maintenance It seems pretty different than what is going on in LA But LA is also an older team. Yeah, big age difference. I wonder if load manager will come into play for the Braves as they get older. The one caveat is Sean Murphy. He was awesome in the first half last year.

166 WRC+, hit 306 with a 400 OBP 599 slugging. I don't think they overplayed him. He got a concussion, I believe believe or he got hit at least and the second half he had a 69 WRC plus decidedly not nice So, you know, I think that you could see him put together at full season They don't actually play their catcher like super super hard. So, you know, he won't be necessarily the highest volume catcher Like the rest of the Braves seem to be highest volume at their positions. But I do believe he's a good pick on this team that does represent a good pick at cost, you know, where he's going.

I think he's better than that. So he's one of the few that I think is sort of worth circling as relevant in all leagues, easily a top 10 catcher, might be a top five catcher, is going back and according to his projections. I like Sean Murphy. Yeah, a little bit of value, I think, on Murphy, where he is going right now. You mentioned the younger outfielder replacing Eddie Rosario. It's Jared Kellnick coming over in that trade with the Mariners. They've also made a point to say they want to see what he does against left-handed pitching. I think the bigger question around Jared Kellnick and what happened last year was he had a great April and from May 1st on he was a below average player. He had 88 WRC plus from May 1st on only four homers in his last

315 plate appearances. He was striking out a third of the time during that span. And then of course there was the water cooler incident, which led to an IEL stint. It's a fresh start for him and an opportunity to not just be the guy. Like he's not the centerpiece of a blockbuster trade anymore. He's one of many players on a team that's loaded with talent. So where do your expectations going with Kellnick? Now that he's getting a fresh start in a new organization. Yeah. One of the big things with him, I think, is they're just hoping for somebody whose error bar skew in the right direction. He still had for the season a 108 WRC+, he still projected better than Eddie Rosario. And so that's what they're hoping for is, be better than Eddie Rosario.

That's all we're asking. And then maybe catch lightning and be know be better than Eddie Rosario. That's all we're asking right and then maybe catch lightning and be A lot better than Eddie Rosario and cover some of the restroom might have from other parts of lineup I do see some evidence even though he's having a very poor spring in that Even than that poor, you know second half if you look at the September He wasn't striking out when he came when he came back and was playing in September He wasn't striking out that much was a 25% strikeout rate in September that lines up with what he's done in the minor leagues Right now in spring training. It's a 19% strikeout rate You also see in September he had a 12% walk rate and he had up and down walk rates in the minors this spring

He has a 14% walk rate now These are all small samples and they're not something you want to run home with trade for in dynasty and get all excited about Cali, but what I will say is that's 21 of plate appearances this spring, plus another 60 or so plate appearances in September and July in which he's had one of his better walk weights and one of his better strikeout rates. So you're just hoping that he could put that together with the power we saw in the first half. For his career, we've got 974 played appearances and he's been 15% worse than League average, but with power and speed and by outs above average, average outfield defense.

So, you know, I think that they're saying if you play to that, it didn't cost as much. Your League average guy, there's financial reasons that the Braves did this because they were able to spend money this year in that trade, the Marco Gonzalez money. By paying Marco Gonzalez's money this year, they're paying money this year that they don't pay next year. And as all the dust settles next year, they'll have a minimum player, a player on the minimum, and again be able to spend money. So it's very difficult to get something like this. Like, if somebody who's under team control on a league average minimum and not use a prospect and just use one year money,

you know, not even have to take on somebody that has three years of money on them or something, you know? So I think they did well in the trade. I don't want to say that Jed Kalman is amazing, but I think he really fits the prayers need. I think they're going to end up playing him most of the time. And I think there's stuff that you can point to. Also, when did he kick the cooler? I think that was July.

It doesn't perfectly line up and explain why his power went away. But in September, he had really good plate approach and no power. And I'm sure his pride and his toe was hurting. It is both. Definitely both. You look at the projections, 507 played appearances right now, based on the fan graphs inputs for the bad X. If he goes over that, he could be a 2020 player with a low batting average.

That's possible. And then being in what could be the league's best lineup, then you get those runs and RBI's to go along with it. Goes right around pick 200. Doesn't have to get better to be useful where he's going. I think that's the exact same situation Atlanta is in. Like, well, he's fine. This is what he is. This works for us.

And from their perspective, he's not a free agent until after the 2028 season. So he's under cost control for a long, long time. So you got Kellnick out there. Marcelo Zuna is a secondary contributor that really just played at a level that I didn't think he still had after what had happened in the previous two seasons. It made sense to me going to last year that he might be released if he didn't actually bounce back But he did bounce back at the plate. He goes in the pick 150 range. I mean steady power Honestly, it's a strange profile just because it's been up and down over his whole career He's had the raw the raw power every year, but in certain years. He's injured and can't get to that raw power. You know what I mean? In those years, I don't know what it is because it's not obvious.

And I'm like, oh, his ground ball rate is super high or this or that. It's just there are these years where he's injured and he doesn't turn his raw power into game power. You see a 16.6% barrel rate from ourselves. And you say, oh, well, he really deserved all 40 of those homers. You know, that's, that's really good barrel rate. Well, you would regress barrel rate as you would any other stat. And so he has a 10.5% barrel rate for his career, you know, in the last three years, it's maybe a little bit higher than that. So you would probably

predict he has like a 12% barrel rate or a 13% barrel rate. That's the same barrel rate that created 23 homers in 2022. So this is a guy who could easily just hit 25 homers this coming season. It's been up and down production, but Lanna got a lot more out of Azuna than anybody would have expected a year ago. The other player that's kind of interesting in this group is Orlando Arsia because we were talking about the infield situation last year and we said, well, what are they going to do? Are they going to turn Vaughn Grissom into a shortstop? Grissom's gone. Of course now He's in Boston Arsia ended up sticking around and putting together a solid year

He's another one of those guys where Expectations are pretty low and they don't necessarily have anybody really pushing to take his job I mean, I think what he did last season was he showed that the power he started to unlock in 2022 On a per game basis was real earlier in his career, this is a guy that usually ran barrel rates in the 5% range or lower. He's been up in that 7% range now for two seasons. So he's not the same player he was as a prospect years ago with the brewers, but he's turned into a pretty solid regular for this Atlanta team.

The thing about Orlando is here for me is just, I don't know how much I trust the power. And if I don't know how much I trust the power. And if I don't, I mean, there's, it's a nice home park for power. And it's not like you're asking him to hit 30, you're just asking him to like 15. But he's also, that's not a big number. So it's not gonna give you power. It's not gonna give you a steal.

Like he's very, very clearly like a deeply guy for me. Like I'm not sure that's something you want at Middle Enfield and a 12 teamer. Even in a 15 teamer, I have not sure that's something you want at middle infield in a 12-teamer. Even in a 15-teamer, I have never reached for Orlando Garcia to be like, oh yeah, he's going to do X, Y, or Z for me. He's clearly like draft and hold or NL only for me. Yeah. I think that's the right usage. Even last year, everything seemed to go right. 17 November, 65 RBIs, 66 runs. That sort of caps out really, really deep leagues. Maybe more of a weekly streamer.

If you have some injury problems in a typical mixed league, but generally those deeper formats are the way to go. Who does to them for finding a league average guy? I mean, he's projected to be around league average again, but, you know, and he's with them until 2026. So then this might be like, hey, we're so stacked everywhere as a team. Yeah, we got this league average guy shortstop. It's fine. Yeah, well, they're finding a way to get it done top to bottom with this lineup and really not much other teams are like, who's our shortstop? Well,

everything else is figured out as well as figured out, you can make that kind of the revolving door sort of spot and live to tell the tale as we've learned from the Braves in recent years. Ever tried to break a bad habit and feel like you're climbing Everest in flip flops? We've all been there. But here's a breath of fresh air. Fume. It's not about giving up, it's about switching up.

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Look at that picture. Just incredible, incredible projections. 34.3% projected K-rate, stuff number in the 130s. Absolutely filthy. Hazel loves Spencer Strider too. This is a loaded rotation though, because they added Chris Sale. And Chris Sale, as we talked about just a few days ago, is actually healthy right now.

Spencer Strider is adding a curve ball and throwing the change this spring. Chris Sale added an inch of ride and Velo. I don't know that I can list a great update for Max Freed, but Reynaldo Lopez, I watched some of his start. He actually kinda won me over as a possible starter. And then AJ Smith-Shover is shoving. I mean, he's really looking good.

He's got a 123 stuff plus on his fastball this spring. It's up a tick and a half in Velo and a tick and ride. And he just looks a lot better this spring it's up a tick and a half in Velo and a tick and ride And he just looks a lot better this spring. I was a little surprised I look back even at the revised stuff plus numbers to find that he had an 89 stuff plus on a pitch that had good ride last year So I don't really understand why stuff was didn't love him last year But that's basically the core of the 4.82 ERA projection for him. I'd say You can ignore that to some extent if you like him go for him

I don't know that you have to push him so hard as to say He's as good as a Bobby Miller or any of those guys because there is still some question about the whole thing But if you are looking for something late and you just want to take a shot and, you know, you can drop them if he doesn't make the roster. I think, as a Smith-Schauber is a fine last pitcher for most teams. Yeah, it's amazing how late the back end options go for Atlanta, given how good the team is, and given that you're talking about at least a fifth spot that's open. You know, if it's Lopez to begin the season and Smith-Schauwer is either at AAA or in the

bullpen, he could emerge if anyone gets hurt. And with this collection of starters, you sort of expect to have to go six or seven deep pretty easily. And they at least have that covered. How many innings does Lopez have for the year? Right. Right. How is he going to do?

I mean, we talked about him when we were talking about the relievers in the would you rather earlier this week, which of these converted relievers we think could make it as a starter and be the most valuable this year, where another Lopez has gone up into the 180s twice as a starter. I don't know how you get back into that. I think you may have to ease back in. I'm not like, oh yeah, 180 again. Yeah. Cause you have a four year stretch where it's been 50s and 60s.

And then 2020 was part of that as well. So that makes it even more complicated. Or even if you think he holds up physically, how good are the innings later in the year? Maybe you get good stuff in the first half and he just starts to wear down. So I think that's one of the concerns. But they're well covered because behind AJ Smith's Chauvery, still have Hurston Waldrip who cruised through several levels last year in this system. He's probably on that number seven seat right now.

I think the bigger question is about what do you do as a sale? We talked about the rising price earlier in the week. He's going closer to pick 100 now. Freed's been a guy that I think you've generally shied away from at price. Has anything changed for you with Freed over the course of the spring? It is interesting to talk to Trevor May and talk about, you know, how his fast wall has different shapes to different sides of the plate. It's interesting to talk to you and you bring up how he's one of seven

pitchers of the sub three RA over the last three years. I like also that he's healthy and pitching again in the spring. At some point, the model matters less than on field results and definitely max-freed is past that. So I just do know also that flexor strain forearm problems are precursors to Tommy John. And so if you're taking him, you're just taking an innings risk. Yeah, there's definitely a legit innings risk, but those skills, the ratio skills that is seem to be really like legit for Max Fried. It's a question of whether or not he strikes guys out at a clip similar to

this guys above him or if he stays kind of in that second tier, kind of like that Logan web sort of range where it's got to be a lot of innings to offset the lower ratios, they're outstanding, win probability also outstanding. So I'm more in unfreed, I think, than you are even at that price, but I think you're right to point out the injury risk. And then you've got the old, old veteran, Charlie Morton still there, going after pick 200. Still ticking, still ticking. I've mentioned that there's been some recent downsides

with the ratios, 434 ERA in 2022. You can kind of look at that and convince yourself that was a little bit of an outlier. The 143 whip last year, the worst of Morton's career since 2012. So more than a decade since he's been that bad in that category, that of course came with an 11.6% walk rate. What do you make of the walk rate going that far in the wrong direction in the age 39 season of Charlie Morton? It's really the degradation of his fastball that's the

key of everything. As his fastball degrades, so he has to go to, you know, things like the sinker, the change-up. He threw the change-up more than he had in years and years and years last year. You know, those aren't pitches that he's going to command the same way. He also had to throw the curve ball a ton. He was up the career high in curve ball uses, a 43%. No matter how well you command the curve ball, I don't think he is actually as Wayne Wrighty in that regard as the namesake there. Because Wayne Wright had more of a vertical curve ball

that I think he could just drop in on a vertical plane. Charlie Morton's got a two-plane curveball, you know? So that's something that's taking it out of the zone, you know, side to side. And he really likes to back foot it to lefties. And like, you know, I just feel like that's a hit or miss proposition. We're just seeing the end. It's so sad to side. Like, I love Charlie Morton. I think it's okay to like Charlie Morton and just acknowledge that he's 40. It's so sad to side. I love Charlie Morton. I think it's okay to like Charlie Morton and just acknowledge that he's 40. It's just harder to get hitters out when you're 40 years old. I've been staying away even though the cost isn't really a problem.

I understand the cases for wanting to have money roster, but I keep finding other pitchers I like in that range that I feel better about for the upcoming season. Is there anything in the bullpen that worries you as far as rice? Oh the glacial is just being the guy from start to finish because I think he's actually pretty safe I like him as a three-pitch closer that continues to have some buffer if he loses velocity. We disagree. I love it It's rare. I love it. It's good. It's good when we disagree I see a velocity for 96 three last year in 96.4 in LA or Anaheim sorry 95 to 95.1 last year that's getting pretty close to below average velocity for a closer

he has the worst stuff plus of any established first-chair closer and You see a weakening in the strikeout rate. The strikeout weight went from 37.7 in 2021 to 29.4 last year. If you just look at those at the 29.4 and the 95.1 and the 27.5 ERA, you can tell yourself that he looks fine still, but I see a trend here. And then just on top of that, I love AJ Minter. a trend here. And then just on top of that, I love AJ Mentor. And I think AJ Mentor can be a closer at the drop of a dime. And his projected strikeout rate, his stuff plus his

projected ERA are all better. It's a loaded bullpen, I think, with options and Eglacias could fall off. They may just keep them there as the veteran in the sort of Kenley Jansen style where there may be better guys around him keep him there as the veteran in the sort of Kenley Jansen style where there You know, there may be better guys around him But like you keep the veteran in there He keeps things steady and AJ mentor blows away the four five six guys in the eighth inning and you win the game Partially more because of AJ mentor than right still a glacius that could be the plan That seems to be some of the plan in the past

It's just not one that I need to sign up for and, what I have been finding is I get a circle of trust closer. I don't think he's in the circle of trust. And then I don't really care who my second closer is. I will wait a long time on the second closer. I'm okay waiting a little for that second closer, but I do think Iglesias is in the circle of trust. We finally found players we disagreed about. Like took five years, but we've done it. I'm with you though on the quality of the bullpen behind it. I'll be right in three years.

Yeah, right? I think 2024, I'm not as concerned. 2025, 2026, yeah. Like we're in that decline phase for Iglesias, but I think it's gonna be a relatively graceful decline because of the depth of the pitch mix. I'm with the unminter Jimenez. Aaron Bummer was a nice pickup.

Pierce Johnson's good. They got the Ken Giles Reclamation Project. They still got Tyler Matzik. This is a very, very good bullpen. Edit Ray Kerr. So they have plenty of lefties that they do want to throw Minter into save situations at some point this season. The question we ask at the end of every team preview, the win total, this is from Pekota, baseball prospectus 100.6

wins for the 2024 Braves, too hot, too cold, or just right? Too cold, I think some of their young arms are going to be ready to contribute, take over for some of the older arms. That'll paper over some of their offensive regression. Plus, seems like a team that can add to the deadline. Yeah, they always seem like they're going to be active. And even if it's just getting better on the margins, that makes a difference. Certainly, certainly a really well built team. I think that's just slightly too hot. I think they're going to win the division. I just think it's going to be a little bit closer than the projections would lead us to

believe they're still really good. And I'm not expecting some kind of massive fall or a decline that comes out of nowhere for this group that are still one of the very best teams in the league despite the disappointing exit from the postseason a year ago. Let's move on to the Phillies. This is another depth chart where you look at the core hitters they rely on you know and it is a group that will play a ton top to bottom right. We saw Trey Turner and it looked like himself in the second half of last year so maybe he's a little more comfortable now with the big contract the move to Philly we saw Bryce Harper get it back coming off the surgery throughout the second half and really looks like he belongs at first base looks really comfortable there I think he could have a just a huge huge year he's still carrying kind of a near first round ADP, get Real Mudo, Schwerber, Castellanos,

Bryson Stott, Alec Bohm. It's a seven player core of clear everyday guys that project for very high volumes of playing time. Yeah, and I am in on a fair amount of them. I think that Bryce Harper is a borderline first rounder. You know, there's, you know, the bat X projections back me up on him being sort of a top 15 bat and the power's there, the comfort's there, the health is there. Trey Turner, I think, is going to bounce back. I'm not even sure that the projections capture as much of the positivity as I have about him. I just think that he can steal more bases than he has.

He did not really see a big uptick with the rule changes, and I think he can be more aggressive there than he has been. I like Real Muto still. You know, he projects to be a top two catcher and people, I don't know, for whatever reason, aren't necessarily reaching for him in two catcher leagues and to get what 10, 15 stolen bases, even from your catcher with a good batting average, I think it's just something that, they people, you might look at it and be like, why am I drafting a 250 guy or 260 guy who's gonna hit me 20 homers and steal me 10 bases

at this point in the draft when you know The outfielders will do better. It's because of relative strength You know, there's no other catcher who's gonna do that and that unique kind of a of a build You know of a package of skills I think really helps certain builds in particular like if you went your don plus one soda or You know what I mean? Like if you, you went with two sluggers at the beginning that didn't steal a lot of bases. He's a sneaky way to like add 10 bases where nobody else is getting your stone bases.

Nobody else is getting it. So that's my case for the three guys I liked the most on the squad. My case for the guy I liked the least on the squad offensively is Nick Castellanos. 32 years old. We haven't seen better than, last year was a bounce back with the 109 WRC plus, but he had two seasons in the three before that, where he was below average with the bat. He's a guy who really chases the pitchers outside the zone. And what we saw last year, despite him having a bounce back season, is that it was the first year or the second year that his contact on pitches outside the zone went below 50%. That's why people are not great to chase. You get into your 30s and

your ability to make contact on pitches outside of the zone plummets. And so I'd expect the strikeout rate to continue to rise. I could see a 30% strikeout rate from him this season. By the way, that's what he has in spring. I'm not saying that that's necessarily meaningful, but I could see a 30% strikeout rate this season. All the projections say 25%. I think they're undervaluing that part of the aging curve. None of the projections really have them much better than league average anyway. So if there's risks there, these strikes out 30% of the time, hits 240, hits 20 homers and steals you five bags. I don't think that's what people are paying for right now. No, I don't think so either. Yeah, maybe this is turning into a Juaneo Suarez sort of profile. And you think about where Castellanos goes versus where someone like

Suarez goes, there's like 100 plus picks difference in that profile. So playing time still stable because of the contract. It just seems like the skills are eroding. I think it's a really good way to call it out. And if the K-rate is worse than it was last year, the average projections in the high 250s, low 260s are going to end up being a little too optimistic, I think, for Castellanos as well. Bryson Stott, kind of an interesting player for me because I would look at that stolen base projection similar to the way you looked at Trey Turner's and say, well, 23 seems pretty light for a guy that went 31 for 34 last year.

Like he could basically be the same guy again and like why would he be less effective as a base dealer? I think the bigger questions for me with Bryson Stott still come back to the power output. He fits into that profile of middle-end fielder whose speed and hit tool I trust, whose power I don't. And I think those players can be a little bit funky coming off of a career best year. Sometimes you have to overpay for skills that are kind of just okay instead of great. I like Bomb is, you know, an interesting player because he think he'll hit for average. His bad of all stats aren't amazing though. Bob and Stott both came through this Phillies player development thing.

And I think they did good and they produced major leaguers. I just can't help but wonder if there's not more power with both these guys. Kevin Long, the hitting coach there is kind of a proponent of, you know, staying in your legs and line drive swing. And I can see that helping with contact rates and helping with batting averages and OVP. But I can't help wonder if there's some other parallel universe with Alec Baum and Bryson Stott both hit 25 homers. Maybe I'm wrong. I don't think in this universe they will. And so they become guys that you can fit in certain places that make sense with certain builds, but they're

not guys. I don't think you buy, start and say, what if it all comes together and he hits 25 homers and he goes 2020 this year, you buy him because he's going to give you some steals, a pretty good batting average. And you, you load it up on power somewhere else. And bomb is a similar case where you kind of just need a corner infielder That won't hurt you in batting average and you've you've got power somewhere else Yeah, stop might be another Edmund from a rotisserie perspective even though from a physical Statue standpoint, I would agree. It looks like he should be able to get to more power We did see bomb get to a little bit more power the ongoing concern

I have with him is that he doesn't handle right-handed pitching very well. I think that's the limiting factor for him. Does a lot of his damage against lefties been kind of below average against righties really for his whole career? Unless that changes, I think we're at that. What you see is what you get sort of point with Alec Bum's production. I talked about Whitmerrafield when he signed. I think he's just sort of an extra glue guy in this lineup. I think the 470 plate appearances is probably about right. And so much of what made him valuable in the past

was being a max volume player. I think he's a little bit more of a streamer for mixed leagues now than he used to be. What if he starts the season as an everyday player? I don't think he's gonna play everyday all the way through the season. But with Brandon Marsh hurt, is there a situation where you want Kyle Schwabber at a DH and

Maybe even with Marsh coming back Is there a soft spot in that row house? You know in center field could could win Maryfield take that spot. I don't know. I don't think so I think it'll be partial playing time But if you're desperate for speed he's an interesting guy if he drops all the way to the end of your thing and you just pick him up and then You know look somewhere else if it doesn't work out I guess I think the marsh injury makes Maryfield more Temporarily roster bull then he would have been if marsh were healthy and it was a clear like depth signing for when something goes wrong

Later if that makes sense Rojas is pretty intriguing the glove alone could just keep him out there for a lot of playing time because they have so many other guys in this lineup that can hit consistently. Even if he hits a bumpy patch, I can see Rojas coming in pretty high in terms of the plate appearances for the season. Much like Atlanta, not necessarily young guys knocking on the door for time either. I think that's the interesting thing about projecting roles for this Phillies team. Let's slide over to the pitching.

Things are pretty tight at the top, of course. They extended Zach Wheeler. We talked about that a bit earlier in the week. They re-upped with Aaron Nola during the offseason, so their 1-2 is very good, even if we're not necessarily excited about Nola at his ADP. He's a good real-life pitcher and a formidable option behind Wheeler for those purposes. My question for you is who else if anyone do you like in their cast of starters? That group includes Christopher Sanchez, Ranger Suarez, Taiwan Walker, they added Spencer

Turnbull, Matt Strom popped into this rotation for stretches last year. Like do you see some value beyond pick 200 with some of the other options behind Wheeler and Nola? Chris Aracanchez was one of the biggest risers when we updated Stuff Plus to include platoon splits. It loves his change up now, so this is one of the best in the game. I am really intrigued by him. I do believe there's some chatter about the added ticks that he's had this spring flattening out his sinker and change up and making them worse. I am not so worried about it, A, because we don't know if those are necessarily going to port over to when he goes to five innings and then B, even with the added Velo, if there is

less movement, there is less time for the batter to react. So I doubt that Adabilo is going to make him worse. I'm still on the Christopher Sanchez hype train. I think he's a really fun, late in in guy. Ranger Suarez could be an interesting NL only or draft and hold player. I do believe he'll pitch. He wins some games. He's a credible starting pitcher And he has a bunch of different pitches and if the command pops, you know, he could give you like a 4-1

ERA with 11 wins and to be a valuable starting pitcher I just don't think he's some of you need to get in 10 or 12 teams. It's a little bit more of a volume and Hope for wins kind of a situation there. Yeah, just a guy, like useful at times, but not necessarily someone you want to throw out there on a regular basis in more shallow formats. Taiwan Walker has been slowed by a knee injury a little bit this spring. I've been wondering if they get some kind of bounce back campaign out of him. I realized the park factors difference leaving the Mets going to the Phillies. His first year with the Phillies was disappointing for a lot of people. The ERA jumped by nearly a run. The whip at 131 was the worst

it's been since his last healthy season with the Diamondbacks a long ago like 2017. So I'm really interested to see like with health what he might be able to do as a possible bounce back. It will cost you almost nothing to find out. Even in a 15-team mix league, could be one of your last bench pitchers. If you like what you see, great. If you don't, he's an easy early weak cut. The bullpen is an interesting one because Jose Alvarado looks like he has the skills of a closer. He's projected to have a 30% strikeout rate, 107 stuff plus, 335 projected ERA. He obviously has this stuff from just a lowercase s standpoint when you're watching him, you think this is a guy who

would be a closer. He also, though, struggles with command and has bad years when the command is bad. So he's a little up and down, up again and down again, and they have a fair amount of that in this bullpen. He profiles really close to Gregory Soto, you know? And there's other pitchers in this bullpen that have that same up again, down again feeling. And then you have this from Minding the News from Jeff Zibrin, it's a great little thing here. The Phillies say it's going to be a closer by committee.

Rob Thompson says that Jose Alvarado, Jeff Hoffman, Gregory Soto, Sir Anthony Dominguez, Strom and Kirk ring will all like are all gonna be in the mix. And they're all like kind of had different skills. And then you have to remember, this is the same team that had Jose Alvarado and a lot of these guys on it before

and went and got Craig Kimbrel to be this kind of veteran, like the kind of what I was talking about with Jansen and stuff was like just the veteran closer who there are other better relievers on the team, but that's our closer, you know, I think this is a total wild card. And I'm treating Jose Alvarado as I'm not necessarily treating him as like not having the job, but having way more question marks about whether or not he has the job, then I see other people thinking when they pick him in drafts. I like the skills a lot. And we have seen a seen a multi-year improvement with the walk rate from him. Last year, Elvarado led all closers in K minus BB percentage at 26.7%. So they have the guy that could be the next Kimberle for them. If they choose to do that,

how you choose to use your bullpen is completely up to the manager in the front office, right? So if they're telling us it's a committee, we have to decide if it's a committee where one guy gets half or two thirds of the chances and the others involved all pick up the scraps. All sorts of committees. There's 20 to 25. All sorts of different kinds of committees, yeah. If it's 20 to 25 with the skills that Elvarado has,

he's being underdrafted. Then it's a good pick. Yeah. It picked 200. So I think it's a risky spot, but I think given the guys that go in that range, if you're chasing that second closer, I think you could do a lot worse.

And it's true, he's in a class of pitchers, this is why I weigh on second closers, that I just sort of collect a bucket of guys. There's usually one that lasts longer than the rest, and I take them. Sometimes it's Robert Suarez, I like Robert Suarez. So I think that it's worth it. I think there's a lot of risk once you get past

the first sort of six, seven closers and I just wanna wait as long as possible for the second one. I think the funny thing about being in multiple leagues is you take a few chances in the same bullpen. Like you say, oh, okay, over here, I got Orion Kirkering really cheap in case he's the guy. In this other league, I took Alvarado. All right, in this other league,

I threw a dart at Jeff Hoffman. Like there's nothing wrong with that. Like if there's uncertainty, multiple bets try and try and find Try and find which one it is and you don't know if it freezing. Yeah, it looks it looks cold there Today was the day I decided not to ring my hoodie well done. Yeah, you sat in the shade so you did some of it, right? 84.1 wins is the total Right. Wee! Yeah.

84.1 wins is the total projected by Picota for the Phillies. Too hot, too cold, or just right? Seems too cold, dude. What the hell? I mean, I know you're cold, but yes, I agree with you. Why the projections not like the Phillies? I don't know. I felt like the projections maybe liked the Marlins

a little more than I expected them to, and maybe they're a little hotter on the Mets than I would have expected to. We'll get to that here in just a minute But I think that's part of where my my issue with Atlanta getting a hundred and six wins comes from I'm looking at Philly And I'm like eighty four point one seems low. I think they get a little closer to Atlanta tougher division And then the projections think I think I think so I think it's actually a pretty good division still even with the Mets sort of taking a small step back for this season.

Speaking of the Mets, to get to our Mets preview now, I think this group of hitters is actually an underrated group. You still have Lindor, you still have Piedalanzo, Francisco Alvarez, at least on the surface, looks like a low average big power mashing catcher. I think there's one more level he's going to find as a hitter. Nimmo and Marte are healthy for now in the outfield. Jeff McNeil is okay. And then you've got a couple of young guys like Brett Beatty, Mark Vientos, who with playing time could actually exceed expectations. We know the park's a difficult place to hit, but I look at this lineup and think I've seen a lot worse

going through this team preview series. I enjoy shopping in this bin. Brandon Nimmo is super, super boring and drops, I think, too far. If you cannot depend on 25 homers from him and 20 homers is enough for whatever you're looking for, I do think he's kind of a solid guy who will give you league average stats across the board. And a lot of times that's good. You're just forwarding it on. I'm not going to go below league average yet. So not something you necessarily need to reach for, but definitely something that works if it falls. Jeff McNeil has been interesting to me because I've been looking for guys who can help my batting average late And you know, he's definitely available super late in drafts

Starley Marta is a guy that I picked up in a bunch of places for you know, 25 steals I think that he's gonna give that this year I know that you'll have to you know get him through some need some time on the on the IEL and you know That's possibly likely maybe he gets traded into non-full-time playing situation. But I also don't think his contract is something that people are itching to trade for. And so I think he might just stay on the Mets through the season, no matter what happens with their season. And you'll still get that 25 steals from him. I think he's an underrated guy. Wrote this week about Peter Alonzo's chase rate and how he's trying torated guy. Wrote this week about Peter Lanza's chase rate

and how he's trying to cut it. Maybe there's another level there for the batting average at least. I even like Lindor. I've got a couple of places where I've got Lindor because I think maybe the 21 stone basis is a little bit light. I think you could end up with something with 25 stone basis from him, 260, 25, 25.

Yes, I want that. So there's a lot of stuff I love. Mark Vientos actually ended up in my secret sauce as a possible breakout guy, super late. So I know people wanted me to give some NL names that I forgot to. Mark Vientos is on that list of someone who hits the ball super hard and does some things really right and I think has opportunity this year. I think the key for that is just Volgobax not there anymore. So you don't have a veteran DH, you have an opportunity for a young guy that doesn't necessarily have a position in Vientos to just take that job and run with it. And since they are taking that small step back kind of being more like a play the middle team right now

Opportunity will be there for young guys like that's the matter of keeping the keeping the k-rate down and doing damage Which is capable of doing you could be a 25 to 30 home run guy if it all clicks We've talked about Harris and Bader a few times. I still think as a a bench outfield during a 15 team mix league You could actually do worse. There's still a good bit of power and speed projected there. That's with a relatively small share of playing time. I think his glove could be really important to this team. So there's a health component there. There's skills have never all really aligned at the same time component there. We've talked about that on a few different occasions but I

think Bayer is still kind of useful to me too. So it's weird. Maybe it's because I'm not a Mets fan I have no rooting interest team whatsoever But I see a little bit more to be optimistic about than the average Mets fan does Bader also is is interesting from this perspective. I just wrote a piece that's gonna come out tomorrow about What happens in walk years and one of the things that happens in walk years is more playing time now Harrison Bader was in a walk year last year and didn't have a ton of playing time. So it's not just a magic solve that like everybody who's in a

walk year all of a sudden puts together 600 plate appearances but he's super motivated. This is a one-year deal like this is you know a lifeline and a pillow and a bounce back opportunity. He's gonna try as much as he can to be on the field this year. I think the Mets mostly stick him out there if he's healthy because he's their best centerfielder. Yeah, and the career high in played appearances, I've said before, 427 played appearances back in 2018. So the projection kind of steers right into that. He could exceed it's it's it's in the realm of possibility because of what he brings to this team. That Nimo projection, if you run it through the auction calculator by the way,

makes him a top 30 outfielder. He's not drafted like a top 30 outfielder because it's a lot of average, it's power without a lot of speed, it's a lot of runs. It's just the combination of skills that our eyes often will overlook. Kodai Shingenga with the shoulder injury is falling to the kind of pick 200 range. So that's the sort of discount you're getting if you're going that route. This is a group of pitchers who deal

with a very pitcher friendly home park that actually have some pretty interesting skills and opportunity wide open, right? We talked about Luis Severino as someone that was tipping pitches last year. I love his chances of bouncing back for this best team and the price is still very reasonable. Yeah. I think Luis Severino is, I've got him in a couple of places. I think it's worth betting on those skills in that ballpark at this point in his career. He also got the

kind of deal where he wants to get you know, get back out there. He's motivated to do well. I think that they're actually an underrated pitching development team too because of some of the hirings they've done. They've got one of the best biomechanists in the league in Ben Hansen on their team and a bunch of other pitching coaches up and down their development system. So I think that they're underrated in that regard. Sean Minaya added the sweeper last year and I think, you know, there's a chance with the sweeper and then the cutter this offseason that he finally finds some secondaries that fit what is a really good fastball. Jose Quintana, I think, is a good streamer all year. I will say that Tyler McGill's fastball seems to be a dead zone fastball and that's why his production has gone oscillated so much up and down.

It's because when he's throwing 96, he looks amazing. When he's throwing 94.5, it just all falls apart. I know he's throwing the American spork as he calls it, this new split finger this spring. I'm not sure if it's a solve that fixes everything. So he's not actually one of my favorite pitching sleepers, but there is opportunity for there for him. And he's just battling Adrian Hauser, who I think is just kind of a power sinker guy who has lived in between the bullpen and the rotation for a while now. And I don't think that he's necessarily going to take that to start a spot either. McGill is having a great spring, by the way. Real sharp so far. 13Ks against two walks,

one run allowed over eight innings. Maybe he's just finally healthy again. That's been part of the story with Tyler McGill in recent years. The Vilo is good, but we saw the Vilo drop off precipitously last year, and he started well and it really fell off. So I'm just a little bit skeptical. The other thing about Manaya that I think is worth pointing out too, is just the way the Giants used him is probably not the way the Mets will use him. I think you'll get something that looks more like a regular starters usage because of need on this team.

And that makes them a little bit more appealing to me. I think there's a better chance of getting some wins working higher volumes of innings the way the Mets will likely have them go. My other question for you with this group, there are some prospects coming. Christian Scott gets a lot of buzz. I think Mike Vassel is another interesting name. Is there anybody you like who hasn't broken through yet to take over a rotation spot for the Mets?

Yes, Vassel has a really good pair of breaking balls. He's a little bit more sinker than four seams, so you kind of need to have an opinion on his changeup. But if you like his change up then he Probably can make it. He'll be a guy that it does better against righties and lefties But maybe survives against lefties. He's got a lot of pitches that he throws He's definitely somebody I've circled if their player development is good then he's the kind of guy that should pop Also in the bullpen Edwin Diaz. It was a knee injury

He seems fine. He's pitching well behind the scenes I think Edwin Diaz is probably the number one closer in baseball this year Yeah, I'm drafting him as the first closer off the board if I'm taking an early closer No concerns for me given the nature of the injury looks like he's the same guy He was before he went down with that so tons tons of the like, of course, in that bullpen as they lean heavily on him to close out games, they're going to be good enough to give him plenty of save chances too. That's the thing. Like the Mets taking a step back, they're not a rebuilding team.

They're a retooling team. I think there's kind of a big difference in terms of what you expect. Times kinds of games are going to be playing on a regular basis. I would generally take some chances on their bats. Beatty, what's the catcher Alvarez and Vientos? I just think that the idea is that they're just going to get all the playing time they want this year. And we saw Alvarez, he's changing his approach a little bit high in the zone.

I think he, you know, could push into that batting average forward. Vientos could be another low battingting average But high power slugger that may end up taking over for a Lonzo if they don't have good negotiations You know like first base may be open next year And then Brett Beatty is totally different than those other two guys makes a lot of contact hits too much on the ground But like he's gonna get all the chances you can and if you can just inch that launch angle up Just a little just a little bit, a little bit, he could actually be one of these Tampa Bay Rays type players where he hits the ball really hard, has a really good batting average and gets you, you know, 15, 18 homers some years, 22, 25 homers other years, you know? That's totally like, you know, we said a lot of the same things about

Yandy DS while he hits the ball hard, but will he ever lift it? Well, crap, Beatty, find your inner Yandy DS. I don't know if you have the same pipes, but... No one does. No one does. Tim Britton had a story about Beatty changing some things about his swing during the offseason. So it's something they're working on, trying to get that ball in the air more often. It's a gamble we're taking. Brett Beatty is cheap in third base, as we've talked about. It gets a little weird late. You could run into a ton of playing time. I think you get a good floor, but you also might get a lot of growth this season from Brett Beatty as well. Let's go to the Pocota numbers for the Mets. This is gonna be disappointing to some, but probably about right to most. 83.1 wins is the number from Pocota. Third in the NLEs too hot to cold or just right.

I'm going to go with just right because if there is any sort of upward pressure on it, it won't be enough to make the wall card. I don't think there'll be a buyer. So I don't think they're going to add necessarily they could sell. They could be a 500ish team that's excited about some of their young players and still find a way to sell. And I do think that they do have some pieces Harrison Bader is on a one-year contract You know like if he's playing well and someone needs a center fielder lately in the season that happens You know, we just need a center fielder and it's they're not gonna be that many on the market So they could sell some pieces here there some of their starting pitchers they could sell so I think

It's just right. Yeah, I had them as a just right as well with the expectation that they're going to keep trying to play the middle. If they see something that they like that makes them better in the long run, they'll make a trade that makes them better in the long run mid-season. If they see something that makes them a little bit better in the second half, then they'll do that because they have the flexibility with the payroll that they're able to run to kind of do whatever suits them. And I just think they're okay. They're not great right now. That's where they're living. If they have pitching injuries, they could be in a world of pain. That could be the... That's true of most teams, but this is one where even with the couple of young guys that we like,

that could be the thing that caused them to lose a ton of games. Or even if their veterans don't bounce back. they they bet on a few bounce back veterans, you know like The Quintana is like project over like a five ERA. So if he just plays his rejections, you're kind of like oops We'll see what year one of the David Sterns era with the Mets actually brings a quick note as we go the athletic comm slash rates and barrels Get to your subscription two dollars a month for the first year. There's fresh rankings up. We got stuff rolling out in the draft kit each and every day. So be sure to check that out. Make sure you jump in the Discord.

If you haven't done so already, the link for that is in the show notes. You can find Eno on Twitter at EnoSaris. You can find me at Derrick and Riper. Find the pod at Rates and Barrels. That is going to do it for this episode of Rates and Barrels. We are back with you on our YouTube channel at 1 o'clock Eastern on Friday.