Rates & Barrels - 2024 Team Previews: Red Sox, Marlins & Nationals

Episode Date: March 5, 2024

Eno and DVR continue their Team Preview series with the Red Sox, Marlins and Nationals. Can the Red Sox's lineup produce enough to cover the potential shortcoming of their pitching staff? Will the Marlins' young rotation find enough quality innings in a season without Sandy Alcantara? As the Nats' rebuild continues, how long will we have to wait before James Wood and Dylan Crews enter the mix in Washington? Rundown 3:37 2024 Boston Red Sox Preview 5:55 Nick Pivetta's New Pitch Mix 13:30 The Red Sox's Current Outfield Situation 23:27 2024 Miami Marlins Preview 37:39 A.J. Puk's Growing Pitch Mix 40:10 2024 Washington Nationals Preview 47:48 Underappreciated Catcher: Keibert Ruiz Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarris Follow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiper e-mail: [e-mail] Join our Discord: https://discord.gg/FyBa9f3wFe Join us on Fridays at 1p ET/10a PT for our new livestream episodes w/Trevor May! https://www.youtube.com/c/ratesbarrels Subscribe to The Athletic for just $2/month for the first year: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels Please fill out a quick survey to share your podcast habits with us by going to theathletic.com/survey24. Three lucky entries will win $100 worth of Amazon vouchers! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Welcome to Rates and Barrels, it's Tuesday, March 5th, Derek Van Ripper here with Eno Saris, Eno live from Peoria. Are you on the back fields in Peoria? Yes, I am. I was looking for a place to set up and I had almost had one except that Yuki Matsui had a bullpen session today and so the comfortable seats that I was sitting on that were, you know, kind of shaded were all taken up by the press conference area. Plus, I was sitting where players eat and I thought it might be weird to give analysis on players. At least it wasn't me, them, and wouldn't be talking about the Padres in front of the Padres. But yeah, so that's what's going on here.

Matsui looks healthy. He threw a good pen, his back didn't bother him. Got to see a muskrove pen. Talked to Xander Bogartz for a second. So, yeah, a successful day at camp. I'm on my way to a sunburn, as you mentioned. It's probably happening right now. Yeah, send the SPF 50, send some alo. There's going to be a burn happening while we record this show. The hazards of being a baseball writer at spring training. Got to get the hat, got to get the sunscreen. Spring training, you know, day two, checking in live from San Diego. Always making rookie mistakes, dude. Well, you know, there's always opportunity for growth.

That's the way to look at it. One follow-up real quick before we get to our team previews. Today, we're going to break down the Red Sox, the Marlins and the Nationals. We did get the long anticipated update from the surgeon that performed knee surgery on Ronald Acuna Jr. a few years back. Dr. Neil Littrush confirmed the initial diagnosis of irritation in Acuna's meniscus,

which is great news because that means he's likely going to be ready for opening day. So as we discussed yesterday, no need to you know panic No need to drop him out of that top spot You can maybe close the gap slightly between the Kunya and the field But he still probably belongs in that one-one position Given the confirmation of that initial diagnosis. Yeah, I'm glad we didn't panic here on the on the show It was it would have been easy to panic.

But nobody said any of the bad words when it comes to possible surgery or anything torn. So irritation of the meniscus is one of the, probably the best outcome you could have had. And he said, I got boss today on camera. So I think that means he's ready to go. Yeah, yeah, I think he was explaining. He said he felt good enough he wanted to play today.

His bosses don't want him to play today. I think it was what I took from the video. Oh, OK, all right. Oh, I see. He was playing with the assembled media a little, but he was pretending to use his bat as a cane at first and kind of laughing. So I mean, compared to the mood around the uncertainty 24 hours ago, I think things have taken a turn

for the significantly better with the Ronald Lacuna Junior Disc Course. Speaking of discord, that's open. We'll put the link in the show description if you've joined that already. Jump on in there. We got some big announcements coming soon. Our listener league close to getting off the ground, so we'll have all the details for that available once it is confirmed, but that is just probably days away from being announced. So something to be excited about. Let's kick it off though with the Red Sox preview. Closing out the ALEs, this is the team projected to finish last. It does make sense when you start to look into some of their flaws, you know. They had a strange offseason, like they made some additions,

but then they traded away Chris Sale, which I thought was kind of like, hey, what are you doing? Are you playing the middle when you're not actually a mid-pack team, or are they fancying themselves as an actual long shot wildcard contender when many of us are looking at them as the clear bottom team in a strong AL East right now? Yeah, it's strange to bring in a new GM that purports to be, was a director of pitching in Chicago and be someone that might attack pitching and make pitching better. And then he goes out and trades away his ace. Just a little bit of discongruous.

I do think that some of the peripheral moves they've done to set this up like the Verdugo trade, that was for arms. And it wasn't for arms that are going to obviously be great because it was only one year of Redugo, but Weissert is gonna probably help in the pen and I believe the other pitcher who came back has a chance to start, so he was trying to maybe just get more quantity in there and that might have been some of the idea there. The switch of G-Lito and sale seems to have

backfired fairly considerably. We have some news that Lucas G-Lito has some UCL issues and may start the season on the IL. So that one didn't work out for them. Yeah, partial UCL tear and flexor strand for Lucas G Alito was the official diagnosis. I saw that from Jeff Passett, ESPN earlier today. So that could be a pretty lengthy absence, depending on the course of treatment for G

Alito, but at least some kind of absence to begin the season. And I would say this was a rotation that had some competition for its last spot or two anyway, at least there wasn't a certainty who they're starting five was going to be even if there were five clear favorites When you look at it from a how much do these guys go for and dry? What are the cost and drafts and where do they go Nick Pavetta still carries the earliest ADP? He's been a buzzy pitcher in fantasy circles before he has broken the hearts of fantasy managers before is There a reason to believe that the fantasy community

will not have its heart broken by Nick Povetta this time around? I think the mix is legitimately different. If you look at a stat cast, which does a better job, probably the best job of any system out there of identifying sweepers. You know, you notice that he did legitimately add a sweeper and start using it a lot by the end of the season. I myself can't really see this graph right now, but I'm looking at it through a fence, but I do believe that it shows increased sweeper usage by the end of the season. And what I like about that is it really gives him three breaking balls and though his fastball has been great, I think one of the

things that's important for him is keeping people off that fastball, not being super predictable with that fastball, being able to throw the slider for strikes when people are expecting fastballs, and then finishing people off with the curveball and sweeper I think this is a legit mix. He's always had the stuff slash stuff plus to succeed Now he's putting together the arsenal to succeed. I think it's just a tough park I think he's going to be somebody that in Seattle might have like a 360 RA this year But in Boston, it's probably gonna be like a three six eRA this year. But in Boston, it's probably going to be like a three nine or a four one or something. Just cause it's a tough, tough home park, tough division.

I think he's a good pitcher. Yeah, good pitcher in a difficult situation makes a lot of sense. I wonder what the added sweeper of the new mix of pitches in general gives him a better chance to suppress homers against lefties. That was the big problem. Twenty three home runs allowed last season by Nick Paveda. Sixteen of them were to lefties. Right.

Let's see if 509 against them. The sweeper won't call it. He won't fix that. Yeah, but. But the pitch mix in general being different. I wonder if that's enough to make something work. Yeah. Yeah.

I mean, he seems like a candidate for a split or two because he's over the top and hasn't really found a good change up. But I think, you know, the occasional freeze take sweeper can work to lefties if he's careful with it. And then just generally, you know, being a three pitch pitcher to sleep to lefties with the harder slider, I think works to. Yeah, we saw a cutter pop up last season.

I think the cutter would be the pitch against lefties that could actually give them something different get a little more weak contact Have that have that wrinkle that maybe wasn't there previously You mentioned the the trade the Verdugo trade Richard Fitz is the pitcher that came back He got up to 152 in two-thirds innings at double a last season of the Yankee system So as far as being a full workload starter, that's something fits brings to the table. I imagine he opens at triple a, but given their needs, he should get a chance in the big leagues. There's six now. Right. I mean, he could be Mada or fit. So those are there are two guys and, you know, on average, your six starter gets like 75 to 100

innings. So, you know, there's some innings out there for you. If you want them, Boston's a tough place to go innings farming. Yeah. You look at the rotation, Bayo, maybe it's the not an opening day or Povetta, probably Povetta at this point, but in some order, that's your one two. Cutter Crawford, someone that the model has liked for a long time. His rule looks a bit more stable. And now with the Geolito injury, you could probably see both Garrett Whitlock

and Tanner Hauke in the rotation together. Whereas previously that may have been a either or sort of toss up for the last spot with the loser ending up in the bullpen. Yeah, I need, I need some, some numbers on Whitlocks fastball because it really, really fell off last year. And it kind of went past the point of where you can be successful with the bad fastball. He definitely has two secondaries. The slider and changes are good, but, um, you know, I've fallen for this kind of player a lot in the past. And, uh, there is some sort of threshold that the fastball needs to get to, uh, to, to make it work.

And I'm not sure he's there. How could the one I like better? I think how has the fastball, this camp, he came to camp and everyone said that he had the best Velo in camp, you know, Vesa V last year. And, you know, I think now with the splitter, a second year with the splitter,

most people tell me that the splitter takes a little time, takes a little time to get used to. And, you know, so that's something that I think, you know, I was talking to Jordan Hicks about his splitter in San Francisco camp yesterday. And he was just like, yeah, you know, I basically started throwing it for good last year. So I think it's going to be better this year. And I think that's how I feel that how is going to go forward. Because he's, he's like, he kills righties. And it's just all about all about can he figure something out lefties with that slot. It's something that the lefties can see forever. So he has to come up with something that that'll work.

Yeah, I think with how it gets at least for shallow leagues, a streaming arm that you want to consider even like a 10 team league, unless he's going up against the lineup that can be stacked with lefties because his dominance against righties has now spanned over most of his career in the big leagues. I think you can trust that as a skill that he actually has with that mix. The bullpen could change depending on what happens with Kenley Jansen. Kenley's working back from a lat injury, a lot of trade rumors swirling around given where the Red Sox are projected to be and given that there's a handful of teams out there that could use a capital C closer. I'm curious if Jansen does

get traded or if he's hurt and still on this roster, is Chris Martin the obvious fallback option for you to step up and take over the closer role in Boston? Yeah, it's won't be the highest stuff closer in the league. And it's a little bit more belt on command than you'd expect from a reliever. But it's easy to picture. And it's not a super deep open. Yeah, it seems like he's been the favorite to be that guy. I see him getting picked up in a lot of drafts really late. With the assumption that we could see a late spring Jansen trade, kind of like that Craig Kimbrough trade we saw a few years back between the

Padres and Braves, I think it was that hooked up on that deal. That was fun. That was like the Sunday night going into opening day when that trade went down. I think we will have some stuff like that this year just because of the holdouts with the free agents. I mean, you just think of Matt Chapman signing in San Francisco this week and, you know, does that mean a J.D. Davis trade? I think there's going to be some late trades as these last two signings happen. Yeah, I think that makes a lot of sense. Looking at the bats now and working in reverse today. You still got Rafael Devers is the cornerstone of this lineup.

Tristan Cassis has moved up as a top 100 player by ADP. Projections have him in the 240s for batting average. I think there's a little more room for growth there. It's a super light on runs on RBI. I guess they're, is there assuming he's going to get platooned? I mean, I get the risk that he's platooned, but I kind of doubt that he is platoon, but just because He seems like they think of him as a cornerstone back going forward. Yeah, I think that's where that projection comes in a little light It's almost like a soft platoon is projected maybe the occasional tough lefty is something that gives him a day off

But I think you want to see what he can do and let him show you that he can handle that split in the long run Especially if this is a little bit of a down year for you. The mid-tier options in drafts are all very interesting for this team. Jaren Duran sitting right around pick 150. There's power, there's speed, there's a good average projection. I think it's a question of how do you make the pieces fit in the Red Sox outfield, right? I think there's a couple different ways they can go. Sedan Raffaella, one of their young options, could be their best defensive center fielder by

far. If Raffaella is on the roster, he's probably the regular option in center. That puts Jaren Durand likely in right. Tyler O'Neill would play left and Masatake Yoshida is likely to be the regular DH. Then, will your Ubreyu sort of works as the extra outfielder. But if. But if Rafael were to go down, I think Durran has to play some center field to begin the season. And will your a Brey you likely platoons in a corner with someone like a Rob refs night or just to sort of get through the early part of the season. Yeah. The interesting thing from a string training standpoint is that

Rafael leads the team in play appearances. Again, that could just change today. If he doesn't play and somebody else plays, will your review is right behind him. But, you know, I don't see Tyler O'Neill on here. He's there. You know, is looking into the sun and his laptop is behind a fence, which it's amazing. But I don't see Tyler O'Neill with played appearances. He's got 487 played appearances projected. Oh, I know. I'm just talking about spring

training ones. I think he hasn't. I don't think he's played yet. I'll investigate that for just a moment. Anyway, Ruffella has played, and I think, you know, just sort of reading the tea leaves, I kind of think he's headed towards that. Also, just my personal opinion is that Duren is not a center fielder, and I think that you're kind of seeing some of that play out in Boston. So I think he's going to be a corner outfielder. I think he's a really good player, he's gonna have power and speed and a decent batting

average and so I don't think there's any risk of taking him honestly like I think that that's enough of a player offensively that you can just whatever come whatever sort of plan you come up with for the Boston outfield during should be in it and Yoshida is gonna be in it. So you know I think those two are really strong picks no matter what. And Yoshida for what it's worth is of this class of player that I found to be undervalued in drafts, the quote-unquote empty batting average, Kwan, Arias, Yoshida, Verdugo, I think I've seen them all drop in drafts according to their auction value.

And I think that's probably because people are chasing home runs and stolen bases, but if you do something like I did, where you kind of are heavy on homers and stolen bases early and your batting average is not a strength, you can pretty much bet that one of those guys will fall for you. And worst case scenario, Jeff McNeil is there too. So these are all guys that have positive value no matter what league you're in. And they'll drop. I think the way it's going to work out is the first way you talked about with William Ubreyu as the fourth outfielder.

But I do acknowledge that there's some risk that Tyler O'Neill is a part-time player. Um, and that takes some of the bloom off the rose for me because I had thought of him as, um, kind of going into a great situation and being a bit of a sleeper this year in drafts. I like him because it goes just as at the top 200. I think you can be wrong and it's not going to crush you. And I think there's a chance that Tyler O'Neill nudges into that every day of sort of role. It's at least possible. So it, it's balanced out where crush you. And I think there's a chance that Tyler O'Neill nudges into that every day sort of role.

It's at least possible. So it's balanced out where the risk reward makes sense. Yoshida's profile, I think, is actually very similar to Vaughan Grissom's known profile. But Grissom being younger has a few paths to get a lot better. Right. If you said, what's the median expectation for Vaughan Grissom, who now has a run to be the everyday second baseman so long as he's healthy. He's got a small injury that's going to slow him down. That's the youth you're talking about.

Yoshida plus five stone bases. Or you could, I mean, you could see Grissom maybe unlock a little more power. There's just a few ways he could get better, but he's that kind of player right out of the box. And after the first week or so of the season, he's going to be second base and shortstop eligible. So you're going to get a little more versatility. So I like Grissom where he goes as a similar kind of player. He's dropping in drafts because he has a hamstring injury and the current note says he's not sure if he's going to be ready for opening day. That's worrisome. I can't claim that it's not. But it's also still fairly early for a team that doesn't have sold games and sold

You know like they're still it's March 5 I feel like you know like I feel like we could get a good update in a week and then his draft stocks gonna rise again in TGF BI I was able to leave him on the board with Jonathan India and Zack neto so that I could get my man Seth Lugo And I needed him because I felt like Seth Lugo is the last starter on the board that I would want to start more than 75% of the time. I think that's something you should think about when you're looking at starters near the end of your, when you're looking at that last tier, where's that tier? That tier for me is do you start him 75% plus the time or not?

And I think there is a difference there. Like a Tanner Hauke, I don't think I want to have to start him 75% of the time, so he's below that tier. Any case, I left him on the board and Vaughn Grissom was the one that came back to me, and, you know, I'm a little bit worried, and so I put Grissom on my bench, but I think he could be fine by opening day. You know, that's just the first update we've gotten, so... And he's an exciting young player in terms of batting average and, you know, kind of 1515

upside, I think. And the actual shortstop, we discussed a bit more on the shortstop preview about a month or so ago, Trevor story projected by the bat X for a 240 2020 68 and 62 for the runs and RBIs a little light because the playing times only at 513 played appearances Trevor story will play more than that if he's healthy There's a chance Trevor story is an everyday sort of player. He's paid like one. They brought him into B1 Now he's finally healthy the thing that's led me to story a bunch of times is if you wait at shortstop and you wait on speed Because you target power early. I think story can be a little bit more like a Durand where you get 15 to 18 homers, but 25 to 30 steals. I think in this environment, Trevor's story is going to

run and run often. Yeah, you look back and you see that 10 raw steals. That's why Rateser always, it's in the name of the podcast. But rates are always superior to counting stats because you see that 10 stolen bases and you think, oh well, you know, but 10 came in 168 played appearances, that would pace out to, you know, 35, 40. You know, so that was in a year where he's trying to come back from injury. So I agree with you, I think he's he's a fun late pick

and I think the projections are a little light on there on there on the playing time. You have something like zips with 630 plate appearances gets to 23 homers and 23 steals still light on steals. So story another fun bat in this Red Sox lineup. Yeah, my life at shortstop has revolved around some combination of Anthony Volpe Trevor story or will he a Dami based on what's been happening so far I got a lot of zack netto And the the late dart from this team that I like is sedan raffi Alex I think his defense will carry his playing time

You can get him in that round 25 to 30 range of a 15 team league take the shot because there is power There's speed the question is how quickly will the approach Adapt to top-level pitching right there could be some short term downside, but the glove carries playing time Hi whiff rates for his time of player in the minors I mean you're talking about a guy who walks five percent of the time you kind of expect him to strike out 15% of the time You know just be kind of one of those high contact, you know swings at everything kind of guys He's been running whiff rates above 15% of the time, you know, just be kind of one of those high contact, you know, swings at everything kind of guys. He's been running with rates above 15%. So that's the, that's the, that's the con side of the Rafael argument is what if the

strikeout rate doesn't go down much from 31, he's projected to get down to 23. But what if it's 28? You know, if it's a 28% strikeout rate, he might be running a 220 batting average. And there might be, you know, calls for change that's in the field. Or at least it'd be enough to keep him buried at the bottom of the lineup. That would be the other thing. And that would have a negative impact on the run in our production. Probably. Yeah.

All right. Here's the question. Pekota has the win total projected at 79.4 for the Red Sox. Last place in the AL East, too hot, too cold, or just right? It has come to my attention that I've said too hot too often. I mean, too cold too often. I don't know. I still think it's too cold. I understand the pitching is in a bad state,

but this lineup is exciting and has a lot of young players in it that I like I think they're gonna mash their way to 81 82 wins Yeah, I have a slightly too cold on the red sox as well It's not egregious So I guess it depends on what happens at the deadline how the young players come along a couple little things like that they If they're sellers then yes, I think the number ends up being right or slightly too high. But I think they're going to be good enough to talk themselves into possibly making some additions. Yeah, I'm betting against the Janssen trade myself. I don't think they're going to do it now.

It's like, just wait until July if you're not good. Everyone's optimistic now, you know, it's like if you're in a keeper league and you're trying to trade prospects for hitters right now, this is the wrong time to do it. Everybody's looking at their it's like, if you're in a keeper league and you're trying to trade prospects for hitters right now, this is the wrong time to do it. Everybody's looking at their team being like, hmm, I could do something. Optimism is in the air. Ever tried to break a bad habit and feel like you're climbing Everest in flip flops? We've all been there. But here's a breath of fresh air. Fume. It's not about

giving up. It's about switching up. Fume takes your habit and simply makes it better, healthier, and a whole lot more enjoyable. Fume is an innovative, award-winning flavored air device that does just that. Instead of vapor, Fume uses flavored air. Instead of electronics, Fume is completely natural. And instead of harmful chemicals, fume uses delicious flavors. You get it. Instead of bad, fume is good. It's a habit you're free to enjoy and makes replacing your bad habit easy. Start the year off right with the good habit by going to trifume.com slash barrels, getting

the journey packed today. Fume is giving listeners of the show 10% off when they use our code BARRELS to help make starting the good habit that much easier. Start the good habit at trifume.com slash barrels to save 10% off the journey pack today. Let's move over to the NLEast. We're gonna kind of work from the bottom part of the division and on our last team preview. We're gonna have a loaded one because we're gonna have the Braves, Phillies and Mets. So we're gonna start with the Marlins, the fourth place team in the NLEs to buy projections.

And of course, this is a team that has dealt with some injuries, especially on the pitching side. Let's start with the Bats, where their best hitter has missed time pretty much every season. It's Jazz Chisholm Jr. I've looked at him as a low average 30 30 guy projections see him in a very Similar light. He's a guy that I like that. I haven't drafted yet So you know, there's still time to fix that almost a month where we can get jazz chiseled onto our rosters

Do you think there's still another level with jazz? Or do you think even though it's been around a lot of injuries what you see is what you get from a skills perspective as far as the K-ray and the batting average risk that he's shown to this point in his career. We've seen some change in his chase rate over time and so I am wondering if there is a peak season in him where he walks 9 or 10% of the time even. I think that's possible with this skill set. And maybe gets the strikeout right down to 27%, 28%. I mean, if he does both of those things,

which I think would be attainable through regular at bats, through a whole season, you know, like just have one of those seasons where you're healthy all year and you can refine your approach, as opposed to like having to come back and get your timing back every time, you know? So, you know, if he does those two things, if he does have a full season, frying your approach as opposed to having to come back and get your timing back every time.

If he does those two things, if he does have a full season, I think you could see a peak season from him where he hits 275 with 25, 30 homers, maybe even 30 steals. That sort of upside is worth chasing and the price has gotten lower and lower every year with the injuries. We're not talking about a guy who's in his 30s yet. And at 26, this is like the perfect time to have that perfect season. Yeah. And the Bat-X has a 24-homer 35 stolen base projection. You don't find a lot of guys that have that who are available

outside the first few rounds. Usually the ADP comes in somewhere close to 60 with Jazz Chisholm Jr. So player I like, player I don't have yet. And another weird thing in his profile is you see a lot of fluctuations in his ground ball rate. You see something as low as 37.1% back when he debuted, all the way up to 47.8% last year, but big swings from year to year. I think some of that is the result of not being healthy and being out there consistently. And lastly, you know, there's a, I think he's a second rounder right now, Luis Robert, who's Robert's going, what, in the second or third? Very, yeah, kind of. End of the turn. Yeah, turn. And, and what's ADP on jazz right now? About 60. That's 30 picks.

Don't they seem like similar players? Similar risk. And, and I mean, Luis, Robert's got some injury concerns to both our on teams, where you worry a little bit about the supporting cast, both have that swing and miss. I think Robert shown a higher batting average floor, even with the plate skills. So I think that's probably part of how you bridge the gap with differences between the two players and slightly less time on the IL. Like that's how you kind of get there.

But yeah, I mean, if you like one of these profiles, you probably like the other and we always like getting a little bit of a deal. Given the way we like to build teams, we're always looking at starting pitching in that round two, three turn like that pick 30 range. So that's kind of your, hey, I can wait and get something very similar the next time it comes back to me at the four, five turn instead. That's the best case, I think, for jazz at this point. And especially if you've got that bonus from getting a Kunya first, your batting average

foundation is even stronger. That makes you feel even better about taking that little bit of batting average risk with Chas Chism. As far as the supporting cast goes, Luis Arias, we've talked about him recently on the show as someone that if you need to take advantage of cheap power late, it's nice to have Arias out there around pick 150 as someone that can lift your average and help offset some of that damage. I don't know if you're gonna get much in terms of homers or steals from Araya's himself, but you get a high volume player that's gonna do a lot of good, at least in that one category, with pretty good run and RBI production as well. I think I actually prefer Masataka Yoshida just a tiny bit because I do

think he could hit 15-18 homers and I don't think Ryze will. So there's a little bit of a difference there, but I do find myself with certain builds, certain teams reaching for these guys. Auction Calculator says I'm doing the right thing, so I'm going to believe it. His skills seem to port over year to year. I don't really love the rest of this team for sleepers or where they're at. I'm probably gonna come in too hot on this team because I just don't know, I don't see it.

I have some shares of Hazel Sanchez who has power but he doesn't have a great approach and doesn't seem like he's going to hit for batting average and seems likely also to be platooned. So he's not a guy who is really that great in weekly lineups. He's kind of more like an autonenew or like a daily lineup situation. And that just leaves like Brian De La Cruz, who's you know, not a centerfielder, but kind of has a centerfielder bat. Tim Anderson, we just is like, seems like a big question mark, you know, and we've just seen the power just fall off and fall off and fall off. If he hits three homers and steals 18 bases, like how much value is he really going to have?

If it's that bad, then yeah, that's a problem. I think Tim Anderson landed in a situation where he'll play a lot. That's a good thing. You can take a chance if you don't like what you see from a power perspective. You can actually cut him, right? Because he's being drafted like an MI is not being drafted like a shortstop anymore. I've drafted him along with Jose Caballero in like a couple of places. So it's like, one of you guys, please step up and steal me, you know,

25 bags from the shortstop position. Yeah. One of you, please be good. I mean, Tim Anderson had a run of four straight seasons before last year where he hit 300 or better. And that was usually with 2020 power speed production, just sort of dinged by lost time. There's some injury risk there I'm okay with him where he goes because I like I said you could just let him go if it doesn't work out I do end up with daily cruise on a decent number of teams because I think he's gonna play a ton in this outfield

I've been waiting for third fourth and fifth outfield. There's a lot just based on the way I've been building teams. I don't think there's really like a categorical weakness. I guess daily crews won't run that much, but it's a little bit like the Austin Hayes profile with less competition for playing time. It's kind of the way I look at Brylan Day La Cruz where you just feel OK about him. It's not a pick that wins your league. Undrafted in my honor to draft last night, five by five, 12 team. You hear the footsteps, though, with all the other outfielders coming.

And I just think unless he gets traded, that's going to make it even more difficult to trust that playing time for the full season. We've talked about Josh Bell on this show for years, someone who's just up and down, the projection's not bad. He's fine as a corner infield filler, but you really don't want to rely on him. It's more of a last resort sort of play. I think he's, you know what he is almost a bat streamer, maybe. Maybe somebody that you like pick up because he's in a certain park for,

you know, weekend or whatever. Yeah. For 12 teamers, maybe that's the ideal thing and a 15 team or you just want to do better because there's opportunities. But I think a bat streaming in 15 teams, like, he would be a great one. I think. We sidestep legs like he would be a great one. I think We sidestep Jake burger a little bit I mean the power by projection looks pretty real and he might even be a slight bargain based on where he's going right now Third base gets a little funny in that range a lot of times you're thinking about burger versus Alec Bohm or Kibri and Hayes

Maybe Esauk Parades is hanging around there I think we generally like the rest of that group more, but is Berger out of place in that tier, even if you put him last of that bunch? This type of profile is, you can only have a couple of them on your team. I'm surprised he's projected for 250 batting average, actually, because I think that with a 17% whiff rate

on that 27.6% strikeout rate last year, Berger the arrow on his strikeouts might be up, you know, and we've seen him have 35% strikeout rates, 30% strikeout rates, and right now in spring training, I know 13 plate appearances, but 46% strikeout rate with zero walks. So it's a grip it and rip it approach with really good batted ball stats, but it is a certain type that I think you can only really have like one on your team. So if you've made room for him and you can handle

the 230 batting average with your 30 homers, then put him on your team. I tend to think I can find the next Jake Berger around pick 300 or later, you know, Matt Walner type, Nelson Malesquez, might be in a different position, but I'd rather take that chance with the elevated K-rate, low walk rate, masher.

I'd rather do that late than do it in the mid rounds. And maybe at a different position because third base is one of those positions where it gets thin faster than people expect. And if you put Berger in there and it doesn't work out, you may not go to the wire and find much. I would say of the late, late options, Nick Gordon's the one that I think is going to play. And I think because he was showing more signs of growth before he ultimately got hurt and missed most of last season in Minnesota, there's a chance there's a little bit more there still.

Kind of a postpost hype sleeper guy that people were excited about a few years ago that maybe he did unlock something that then had it sort of wiped off the slate by the amount of missed time that he just had in his last season with the twins. They'll find playing time for him. It's a little weird that he's a lefty

just given the handedness of their outfield. It's no, there's no natural platoon partner for him. I do think he's going to make the team though just based on... They're kind of with bats, they're kind of in talent acquisition. You know, it's just like we're going to try and get every bat that might be worth anything on our roster for opening day. And kind of sort it out after that. The strength on this team continues to be starting pitching. You get two inside the top 100 by ADP, Yuri Perez, Jesus Lazardo. Lazardo has kind of found that next level since joining the Marlins.

And Yuri Perez could be someone we're talking about as a top five, top 10 fantasy starter down the road. It might not be that far away because he's electric. And we saw them push more innings onto his arm than expected. So it's much closer to a full workload for Perez that I would have expected for this season, at least within the range of outcomes compared to what I would have forecasted if we were doing this exercise last year. Yeah, he's absolutely, I think in that Grayson Rodriguez, Bobby Miller, you know,

best young aces trio. absolutely I think in that Grayson Rodriguez Bobby Miller you know best young aces trio I have him third of the group just because I do think Grayson probably gets the most innings and Bobby has the best arsenal all like in terms of width and depth and and excellence but I've drafted all three of them and it to some extent I've put them in a group and just been like you know if I if I have a turn coming if I get one of these and not the other two then that's fine for me you know so I'm all in on Europe Perez as much as much as that grouping goes. I have not got a single share of Jesus Lizardo.

And I find that we have a use case where we showed what it is for him if he loses a half tick or a tick and what sort of results he puts out there. It's not a good shape on the fastball, so I feel like if he goes back down to 93.5, 94, you know, you're going to see bad results because a secondary is not even as good as Braxton Garrett's secondary. You know, it's a soft package for me that I think won't age well. So I'm going to be wrong for a couple of years and and then I'll finally be right, and I'll tell you I was all about it.

But that's where I've decided to be. Braxton Garrett, and this goes back to a little bit why I'm a little pessimistic about this team. Braxton Garrett, shoulder soreness, thinks maybe opening day is still in there for him. But not a sure thing. Trevor Rogers hasn't even pitched in camp yet Max Meyer has pitch and AJ puck has pitch so they have two replacements

Ready to go but one was a reliever last year and one had Tommy John surgery last year So I just don't know how much those guys have to give in terms of innings and then behind them Which seems ridiculous to talk about but it does does matter. Teams use 10 pitchers. There's Yanni Tjernos and Ryan Weathers who I just think have pretty awful stuff. Just to be honest, you know. Yeah, they're just the guys that kind of fill in the gaps. It sounds like Garrett may have to start the season on the IL even though at this point Skip Schumacher said he feels great, like he's progressing really well from shoulder soreness

I just hasn't pitched I guess just not enough time Trevor Rogers is actually pitching right now. Hey There we go. Got a couple scoreless innings in today. So he's ready. He's a slut. He's a stud sleeper get him But yeah, the Edward Cabrera situation you've talked about having some faith that maybe he'll put it together this year. He should have a pretty open path to a rotation spot to begin the season. Max Meyer looked really good in that first outing against the Yankees. I think if you have these injuries for Garrett and maybe if Rodgers has slowed down, Meyer probably opens the year in the rotation if they think he's good to go coming out of camp. And then AJ Puck, I was just looking looking he started against the Yankees on Monday night

This was a little bit of a different arsenal I think we were talking about a bit yesterday as part of a would you rather we saw a foreseamer a sinker a splitter a slider and a sweeper oh So two breaking balls and a splitter okay I can believe in this I I can get with this. It's a splitter is a little bit of a weird choice for me given his arm slot. But two sliders could be the way out too as well. Yeah, so I think there's a few different ways for him to make it work. 6k is in three scoreless innings on Monday night.

It was mostly a B lineup for the Yankees, but I just thought the depth of the arsenal from Puck in that outing was worth mentioning as something that was probably a little bit better than we had previously expected. We talked about Tanner Scott back on the Reliever preview episode. I know he said at least one rough out in this spring.

That stuff number's insane. A 146.8 stuff plus number from Scott. The command is the problem. Typical of a lot of top-hint relievers. That's the question. But do you think Scott holds this job all season long? Is he there? Capital C closer from start to finish? I just haven't been able to pull the trigger on him, just because we've seen what happens when the command is not there. And I don't know which year it's going to be, you know what I mean? I feel like if I could get one week of results, I would in the major leagues in the start of the season, I would feel better about taking him.

You know what I mean? I don't know. I wish it was three or four rounds cheaper. I see guys that like Clay Holmes, even Evan Phillips that go in the same tier that are on better teams. I'd rather just have guys on better teams. Yeah, I prefer Holmes and, you know, not only from the team perspective,

just from the pitcher perspective. You tease this one a little bit already. The Pocota projection 80 wins even fourth place in the NLE's too hot to cold or just right for the 2024. Too hot for me. I think this is not a good year for them. Yeah. I just felt that they're going to score enough runs.

Like that's going to be part of the problem. Pitching might be fine with some of the young guys coming through, but I don't like this lineup very much. I do think jazz, if he gets 140 games, does get to that 30 30. I will have jazz somewhere. That is a guarantee at this point But I'm with you. I I could see it being just right, but it seems like a tick on the high side Maybe part of this depends on how you feel about the nationals as a team that's projected to be very bad

Dead last in the division by more than 20 games Which is I don't know like as we as we look more closely at it, maybe it will make some sense. But let's start with the bat. CJ Abrams, heavily discussed earlier in this draft season, still sitting with an ADP inside the top 40 that Projection from the Bat X is really nice. 17 homers, 35 steals. That steal total might be light given how much he ran last season. This is one of many players you look at and say,

hey, he ran more last year. Why would he run less unless you're projecting some kind of role change or some kind of skills loss? And generally, I don't see anyone projecting lower OBPs for CJA Abrams in 2024. Yeah. I guess if we had Derek Cardi on here, if we had a modeler on here, Dan Zimborski, they would just tell you that high steel seasons always regress the next year. And that it's a little bit like that thing I told you about Sky Cogman saying that if you have a bunch of 200 in any pitchers, you can expect 180 the next year. If you group a bunch of guys who steal 45 bags or 40 bags you can expect 30 or 35 bags from them that's how the projections work. But one thing that I think that they're

missing beyond just what CJ Abrams, what matters about CJ Abrams is the fact that the stolen base success rate last year was 80%. I think every team is gonna look at that number and say hey break even is like 73, 74%. We can steal more. You know, so I actually think the league is going to steal more this year. That means, A, you need more steals in your draft than you think maybe. You know, and B, yes, there's going to be steals out there. And in the case of Abrams, maybe the league situation, you know, kind of undoes any regression

that he would have had. Yeah, I think the other thing was CJ Abrams, it's kind of interesting to me with the projections though, is that he had a 300 OBB last year, walked 5.2% of the time, low walk rates from AAA and above these last two seasons, but better walk rates in brief time at AA back in 2021. He was always young for his level. He's still young right now. CJ

Abrams just turned 23 in October. It's weird to me that the projections spit out only a slight improvement. There's a chance CJ Abrams gets a little better or even a lot better. And that's never going to be baked into a projection. So he started off this draft season as someone that at 80p seemed a little high to me. I'm warming up to it. It kind of depends on what else is happening. It's hard for me to take CJ Abrams ahead of Bob Shett, but they're pretty different players as far as what you're getting.

So if you've got a power foundation with no speed and you have to counteract that, I think Abrams makes a lot of sense. He was 47 for 51 as a base dealer with a 300 OBP. So maybe he maxed out his running opportunities last year, but if he posts a 315 or a 320, add a few more bags, that's possible. And the 18 homers he hit last year came from a guy that was projected to eventually have like 55 grade raw power. So this is not like fake power. This is actually a guy that could get bigger and stronger as he continues to bulk up on that frame. Yeah, my computer is running out of battery. Yes. Probably cooking in the sun.

Yeah, that too. One thing I would say is his ground ball rates were in line with what he did in the minor leagues last year. It was the first season with the 50% groundball rate that was out of line. So, you know, he does not seemingly have a groundball problem. And a 112.5 max CV, that fits a lot more with the 50 grade raw power. So, I hear you, man, this guy could hit 25 homers this year. I don't think that's out of the possibility. And this could really be a breakout moment for him. I want to big up another young player on this team in James Wood who I increasingly think will make this

opening day roster. You know we played the game with Sedan Rafaela and the played appearance and saying oh well he's one ahead of William Breyhu or whatever. That is not the case in Washington. James Wood has 25 plate appearances already. Guess who has the second most plate appearances on the team? Lane Thomas with 17. That's not gonna be fixed in one game or two. That's James Wood getting every amount he can get.

Dylan Cruz has 15. I think Dylan Cruz is going back down and James Wood is making a team and here's the other part of the argument. They would love to win a rookie of the year and get a pick. I mean you could probably justify giving both a shot but I think what happened that was surprising was Dylan Cruz moved all the way up to AA last year, same summer it was drafted and hit a little bit of a wall in the 20 games that he played there. You know, didn't Homer hit 208 with a 318 OBP slug 278. He wasn't striking out uncontrollably struck out 22.4%. My question for you would be how much does the swing and miss that we saw from wood 33.7%Rate over 87 games at AA last year?

How much does that give you concerns about batting average risk in the short term? The power is legit. There's power, there's speed. He's going to be a fun player for a long time. Are we going to have a bumpy road for him to unlock all of those tools? Yeah, I mean, he's a tall guy with long levers, long strikeout rates in the minor leagues. I think there will be an adjustment period. And it may happen in the major leagues.

I'm not necessarily saying that this spring training means he's going to be good. I'm just saying that I think he gets the roster spot. Also, part of it is he's up against Jesse Winker and Joey Gallo. Jesse Winker, no matter what you think of them, is not a good defender. And so I think he's a better fit at DH or First Base

at this point. You have Joey Manessas, who was an older First Baseman, didn't show power commensurate with First Baseman last year. And he could lose his job fairly easily. So I think the Jesse Winker, Joey Gallo, Joey Manessus, Stone Garrett battle is probably about DH in first base, maybe fourth out of the other. Yeah, I think there are a couple

kind of interesting depth players around this team. Garrett would be one of them. If he's completely healthy, he's working back from an ankle injury. He plays more than expected while they sort of wait for these young guys to finish up in the upper levels of the minor leagues I think Garrett could surprise some people more of a deeper league sort of play and they got Nick Sanzel Does have options they brought a Nick Sanzel to be a third baseman. It's nice that he's back on the dirt He's got just a brutal run of a kind of bad luck on top of an injury history if he's actually healthy

He's a versatile player for deeper leagues. Luis Garcia could be kind of interesting as a former prospect who did get a demotion in the second half of last year, but does a little bit of everything. Probably doesn't hurt you in any category. So he's kind of interesting to me. He's a good like draft and hold, uh, like third second baseman or maybe even second, if you're in a pinch. Yeah.

And you mentioned Manessus, I mean, I think he was hurt last year, played through a knee injury and didn't really get to as much power as we expected. He might actually hang on a little bit longer to a roster spot than I previously expected, knowing that he wasn't completely healthy last year. But you look behind Abrams. Abrams is the star. Thomas was great last year. Kibbutte Ruiz is very solid.

I think Ruiz, where he goes is fine. I find myself always missing Lane Thomas. Moreno's going ahead of Ruiz in a lot of drives and I'll take Ruiz. I mean, Ruiz has just done it for longer. Similar profile. I think the playing time is super safe. The lineup position is really good.

I don't think it's gonna change a ton even if they start bringing guys up. So I'm in on Kibbut Ruiz. If I sort of miss out on those top tier catchers and I want someone with a really nice floor, maybe it's Ruiz plus Logan Ohapi. Ruiz plus Bonela is my approach at that position. Yeah, I like that batting average with power.

Moving on to the pitchers though. I'd like to interject something real quick. Yeah. I'd just like to pass. Sorry, you were saying? You just wanna completely pass on the pitching? No, we gotta talk about it. I'm just saying that's my initial reaction.

See, I don't know if you got to the bottom of the rundown, but the literal only question I had was, will you consider anyone other than Mackenzie Gore and Hunter Harvey? Other than Mackenzie Gore and Hunter Harvey, no. Yeah, well, any of these guys on your radar at all. And this includes Josiah Gray, Patrick Corbin, Jake Irvin, Trevor Williams, John Adone, Zach Davies, Jackson Rutledge,

Kate Cavalli coming off of an injury. And then Kyle Finnegan, who might be the closer to start the year until Harvey, usurps him for the job. I don't want the guy who loses a job to the guy who gets the job. So I'm drafting Hunter Harvey over Finnegan. Josiah Gray has actually outperformed his stuff and so maybe the stuff projection is bad. It's a 5-2-4 you know P P E R A you know he's kind of he's he's figured things out and he's again working on his mix and adding pitches

and you know kind of a wide arsenal guy that's trying to stay away from his foreseam because it's such a Homer pitch but it doesn't really describe somebody I want especially in that park it's like it's it's a kind of specifically a hard park for homers so it's I don't think that he's necessarily somebody I'm targeting. Kate Gavali's the only name that made me pause honestly. I think what we saw from him was he got to the big leagues and he threw as hard as he could because he was in the big leagues.

And I just don't know, I think that had some deleterious effect on his health, obviously, because he went back down with an injury and then on his command. So I don't know, does he need to throw as hard as he can all the time in order to max out his stuff and make that work? Or is he gonna come back from injury and find a place where he can have more command and make his pitches work?

K. Kevali is a dot dot dot everybody else is a hard no. As far as Gorgos, like have you drafted him at all yet this draft season? He's got a whole bunch of leagues already. I tried to get him in a keeper league in the off-season. I tried to offer Jorge Polanco for him and was told that the other team valued Gore higher. I was surprised by that, honestly. I thought long and hard about before offering Jorge Polanco for him because, you know, Jorge Polanco is an everyday player and Gore hasn't really

established a great baseline of results. But I think it's also kind of fair because Gore is so young, he's 24, he has a great fastball and he's struck out guys. So you're just asking him to tweak a secondary, add a secondary, maybe have better strategy. He hasn't been throwing his fastball high enough, I don't think. And I think that has to do with the coaching he's gotten. But Sean Doolittle is his coach now, and Sean Doolittle is the king of the high fastballs. So I'm hoping that with Doolittle's tutelage, Gore can go far. I like that one. Doolittle's tutelage. The other problem has been the four seamer. 17 home runs allowed by a four seamer.

He throws 95. That does seem more like a location problem. 7.1 feet of extension. So as long as he's getting ample ride, as long as it's not a dead zone fastball, he should be able to get better results. Two breaking pitches with the curve ball and the slider throws the occasional change.

This could still be a breakout pitcher. So I think if you want to be excited about a Nat Starter, it's Mackenzie Gore by a few miles. I'm with you. I don't see anybody else that I like unless Kevali comes back and is healthy. And the bullpen situation, why would you draft the guy that you think is going to lose the job? Yeah. Hunter Harvey makes all the sense in the world better stuff than Finnegan. Cheaper. Could actually get you 25 saves even on a rebuilding team. Cheaper. If you get you 25 saves, even on a rebuilding team. Cheaper.

If you're wrong, move on. Yeah. Easy cut. If Hunter Harvey doesn't get that opportunity early in the season, hinted at this at the top. 58.6 wins. More than 20 below what the Marlins are projected for. Too hot. Too cold.

Or just right for the Nationals. Too hot? or too hot, too cold, or just right for the Nationals? Too hot? The reason is there are sellers at the deadline, I guess. I don't know who they're selling. Who are they even getting rid of? Finnegan? I don't know. That's not gonna change their-

It's also such an absurdly low projection that I can't, I don't know, too hot seems like just being rude They're bad when we put the pitching card up I was looking at it saying is this this is worse than the white socks because the white socks have Dylan cease Dylan cease is better than Mackenzie Gore They have a couple interesting bullpen arms in Chicago It's almost as bad as Colorado like if you took the Nats rotation and projected them at Coors Field, it'd be only better because of Mackenzie Gore.

There might be a bold prediction in there for me. Yeah. I hope I can inspire these things. I hope I can inspire these things. The rockest rotation will have a better year than the Nationals. Spicy. You want to go out there on that, Lim? That's the bold prediction hill that you would like to put it all out there on. Gotta look at the numbers first. All right. Well, I think this is a good place to cut it off because I think Eno's laptop

might be melting in the sun. Yep. Eno's forehead also in danger right now. So we'll try to protect that a little bit. The athletic.com slash rates and barrels will get you a subscription $2 a month for the first year. This is a great time to get in. Fresh updated starting picture rankings on the site as of this morning. So you can check those out. We'll talk about those a bit on a future episode and just as a heads up, you can join the discord. It is open. We'll make sure we put the link in the show description.

So be sure to jump in there. Find League. You can have a team chat. Everything you're looking for all in one place. Enjoy some time with the other listeners of our show. On Twitter, you can find Eno at EnoSeries, you can find me at Derrick van Rijpen, the pod is at Rates & Barrels. That's going to do it for this episode of Rates & Barrels. We are back with you on Thursday. Thanks for watching!