Rates & Barrels - 2025 AL East Team Previews

Episode Date: February 26, 2025

Eno and DVR finish their 2025 Team Previews Series in the AL East. Did the Yankees find an ample pivot in their offseason plans after Juan Soto left for the Mets? The Orioles' window is still open, but will their starting pitching hold up after the loss of Corbin Burnes this winter? Is the Red Sox's pitching underrated? And, will the Rays and Jays close the gap on the rest of the division after disappointing seasons a year ago? Rundown 3:06 2025 New York Yankees Preview 20:21 2025 Baltimore Orioles Preview 35:09 2025 Boston Red Sox Preview 48:35 2025 Tampa Bay Rays Preview 1:04:38 2025 Toronto Blue Jays Preview 1:12:54 A Selection of Sleepers From the AL East Follow Eno on Bluesky: @enosarris.bsky.social Follow DVR on Bluesky: @dvr.bsky.social e-mail: [e-mail] Join our Discord: https://discord.gg/FyBa9f3wFe Subscribe to The Athletic: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels Hosts: Derek VanRiper & Eno Sarris Producer Brian Smith Executive Producer: Derek VanRiper Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

With 132 million users and an unrivaled selection of sports trading cards and memorabilia, eBay is the home of collectibles. Premium trading card singles, live card breaks, unique game-used memorabilia, all the epic finds you need are right here on eBay. Collect with confidence by downloading the eBay app on the App Store or by going straight to eBay.com slash The Athletic. That to eBay.com slash The Athletic. That's eBay.com slash The Athletic. Start building your collection today. It's the season to shop new styles, electronics, and definitely a holiday

trip. And what if each time you made a purchase you got a little something back? With Rakuten you can earn cash back on just about anything you buy from over 750 stores. So if you're looking to buy a new phone, clothes, skincare, or a getaway, well, you can get cash back. So treat yourself, family, and friends and book that holiday trip now. Start getting cash back today by joining Rakuten. It's free and easy to use, and you can get cash back deposited into your PayPal account or sent to you as a check.

It's the smartest way to shop, plain and simple. Start your shopping at rakuten.ca or get the Rakuten app. That's R-A-K-U-T-E-N dot C-A. Hey, it's Noah Chestnut from The Athletic. If you're into games and sports, pay attention. I'm going to give you four sports terms. You tell me the common thread. Ready?

Game. Match. Point. Set. This one's kind of a gimme. The answer is how tennis is scored. Do you want more of a challenge? Check out Connections Sports Edition.

It's a new daily game for sports fans. To play now, go to theathletic.com slash connections. Welcome to Rates and Barrels, it is Wednesday, February 26th. Derek Van Riper, Eno Saris here with you with the sixth and final installment of our 2025 team preview series. We saved the AL East for last and Eno, we have a meeting right at the end of the show so no time for pleasantries i don't care how your tuesday went i'm just gonna get right after it not well it's going worse though pop tart addictions just a lot of yelling for the morning i was also thinking just really quickly

you know i was thinking what would be cool to have like a never ending supply of? And I thought, well, a never ending beer would be great, but it would get warm and that would suck. So, never ending supply of dog poop bags. That's pretty good, yeah. I've, um... How many times have you gone on the walk and they poop and you realize you don't have a bag? Well, the worst one was on Christmas morning this year because no one's outside walking their dog at 11 a.m. on Christmas morning. So finding someone else to hand you a bag is not great. Yeah.

I got lucky. Someone did come around the corner just in time and I could kind of flag them down. I looked like an insane person. It was not my best moment. Because it's all freezing. I'm angry. I'm in my pajamas.

About to pick it up with your hands. I was looking for anything I could find in my pockets that I could make a bag out of like MacGyver and just be like, oh, this is gonna have to do. And thankfully someone walked by and much to their surprise, they were asked for a bag and happily rescued me. So yeah, people are kind sometimes. But never ending pasta.

They've tried that not delicious. It gets old eventually. You know, just drink your beer out of a Yeti unless it needs to be in a tulip. That'd be my advice. So if it's a beer that can live and still be good, not in a tulip, just put it into a Yeti and it'll stay cold.

But it'd also just be the same flavor over and over. Also not great. Well, you had the keg when I was out there That's right the cake we tried to like bury it in the backyard so it'd stay colder and just no way There's no way around that you did a really good job on that though. I'm still to this day Impressed there's still a little bit sloshing around the bottom Given the circumstances you did well. Join our Discord if you got beverages

or a never-ending supply of something you'd like. Let us know what it would be. I think the bags is a good one for pet waste. That's very helpful. I actually keep an extra backup in my coat pocket now, so that same thing on Christmas won't happen again. No, smart. Gotta live in a place where you wear a coat

all the time, though. So hey, winter for the win yet again. Let's get to the team previews though. Let's start with the Yankees. And the main question, I think, when you look at the 2025 Yankees is, did they pivot well after Juan Soto's departure in free agency to the Mets? In on the hitting side, Cody Bellinger and Paul Goldschmidt in on the pitching side, Max Fried, Devin Williams and Fernando Cruz.

I mean, that's a pretty good plan B overall. You're not gonna find a one for one equivalent of Juan Soto on the trade market or in free agency. The closest thing would have been if they had been the team that traded for Kyle Tucker, right? But they spread that money around and got a few pretty big upgrades for this roster. And one criticism we had of the Yankees throughout last season, or one observation anyway,

was just that they were dependent upon Judge Insodo having a historically great season for a duo. And there were questions about some of the bottom half contributors in that lineup, right? So when you start to look at the Yankees lineup now, do you think they're at least close enough to what they were in 2024 to be similar in quality as a run producing unit? It seems a little bit more spaced out. You know, by the bad X, you've got nine players that are average or better with Jason Dominguez being the ninth. You know, you're going to have some youth infusion with Dominguez and Wells and to some extent a full season of jazz chism, who, by the way, had insane, you know, had insane, you know, full season projections if you kind of just like take his Yankee time and blow it up. If you give him 600 played appearances what he did as a Yankee, he'd have 35 homers, 60 plus stolen bases, and a 270

average. So if you want to get excited about jazz, Chisholm, it's a it's a it's a new Alfonso Soriano, I guess. Maybe that's I mean, that's exciting. I think the things about jazz that caught my eye. Yes, he ran a lot more once he got to New York. And then, of course, the power boost that comes from playing half your games in Yankee Stadium. So to see, you know 20-40 season from him last year, it's not surprising based on the player that we thought Jazz could be

when he broke in with the Marlins, but it's a reminder that health has been a major problem. This is a C-D plus health grade player, even off of a career best 621 plate appearances last year, where there was a late season snint on the IL, which fortunately didn't require surgery and he was able to get back from it. At the time of the injury, it was an elbow injury,

it didn't look like a certainty that Jazz was going to make it back, but he did make it back for the postseason. So we talked about him as an early second round pick, that's where he goes, kind of a toss up with Jaren Duran from the Red Sox, and I believe in what we're seeing from jazz. I just think you have to build in some safety nets as far as less injury

plague players go in your foundation if you're going to take that shot on jazz chism early, but I do think in terms of the twenty twenty five Yankees, it's another addition that just happened to be at last year's trade deadline that does change the look of this lineup compared to where they were in the first half of last season. I mean, he has a hurt elbow that I think is headed for Tommy John. I would assume that, you know, that might have something

to do with where he plays on the field. And so I think that's a little bit of the Cody Bellinger acquisition put Cody in center so that you can put jazz at second, the less stress on the arm. I think that, I think there's a risk that if the team isn't good, that at some point jazz shuts it down and gets the surgery because for, for position players, you can get back on the field in six months. So you could just be like, ah, September, this isn't a good year for us, I'm out. And as for the chance of that happening this year, like, I don't know if I'm picking the

knits or not, but I have some knits to pick, which is that Paul Goldschmidt is really old, you know? And when I said that they had nine guys that were projected to be above 100 WRC+, one of the guys was Ben Rice, who's projected for 71 plate appearances. Another was Trent Grisham, who's the backup center fielder. And one is, you know, one is Paul Goldschmidt, who we're thinking can bounce back. And, you know, I do think his swing, you know, sets up pretty well that kind of opposite field swing for a righty, you know, going to the short porch. I think that sets up pretty well for him. But it was last year, a 100 WRC plus is 37 years old and may not bounce back. So you know, if you start looking around the depth chart, you can say, okay, what if jazz's

elbow is not good? Anthony Volpe doesn't take a step forward. Oswaldo Cabrera is Oswaldo Cabrera is not good at third base Jason is up and down in left field and Paul Goldschmidt is old and John Carlos Stanton who has two tennis elbows two of them goes down the disaster percentage on this season is fairly large for a team this good am I am I crazy am I picking the next thing to WFAN when you wake up in the morning? What's wrong with you? This is a good team. I mean, yes, I guess that would be a lot of things going on above that.

So OK, so you described what I think would be the Yankees being the 20, 24 Braves in terms of injury luck, right? It happens. It could definitely happen. Wait, I said all the importance of the said was injured in that whole group was Chisholm. Yeah, but if Volpe doesn't take a step forward, he's still a good glove for shortstop. That's probably only a little below league average with the stick, right? And I think Cody Bellinger's acquisition is maybe a little underrated. You put together the overlay of the what if Cody Bellinger played all of his a little underrated. You put together the overlay of the, what if Cody Bellinger played all of his 2024 games

in Yankee Stadium? We know it doesn't work that way. He doesn't get to play half of them there, but you could see, and it's pretty easy because of the way right field, right center field works in that ballpark. Look at that cutout. It's like, oops, I want eight more homers

from Cody Bellinger. Also, this is home and away. Divide by two. You wanna cut that cutout. It's like, oops, I want eight more homers from Cody Bellinger. Also, this is home and away. You got to divide by two. But you could see about six more homers by that method. You see about a dozen balls that were either doubles or fly outs that would have gone over the fence for homers. So more power there. Bellinger has health concerns of his own.

So you do have to factor that in. But I I do think there's there's a little bit more upside on a few of the players in this lineup. It's not just relying on the Anthony Volpe step forward. It's Jason Dominguez could be really good. Jason Dominguez might not be an up and down guy. Jason Dominguez might show us all the things that led to him being dubbed the Martian when he signed as international free agent as a teenager. right? He might be that guy. He might be power and speed. And between him and Volpe,

you're kind of like one of these guys is gonna be really good. Yeah, absolutely. Probably. Well, the other will just be kind of league average. I think that's fine. Austin Wells looked good as a secondary contributor in the lineup. Maybe he'd get another small step forward from him.

He's a good defender. He's really good offensively. Yes for a catcher He's like almost like a left-handed Will Smith, you know in terms of like makes good contact barrels the ball really well Takes walks like it's it's I think I'm a little more Optimistic about this group even though I understand where some of those concerns come from what I like them better if they had been the Team that signed Alex Bregman sure who wouldn't be better with Alex Bregman on their roster, right? I keep thinking that the no no aren't out of to the Yankees is just like the most obvious thing I don't know why an inevitability like they're just we're just gonna wait too long to do it. Basically

I feel like they're just haggling over money You know I was looking at what Nolan arenado is do and if you were paying him on the open market for what his projections are, you'd be paying $12 million a win. Like, it's not even that bad. So maybe the Cardinals are like, we only want to pay like five or 10 million of this, and the Yankees are like,

mm, that's a little bit rough on our salary situation. You know, we want you to pay half of that. So then it comes down to the quality of the players that would get sent back, right? So that's where the discrepancies come from. But the other part of what they did is they added an impact starter. Right. You add Max Fried to the equation and you say, OK, well, maybe we're not going to score quite as many runs as we did last year.

But we're probably going to be better in run prevention because we have Cole and Fried and Carlos Rodan, plus Luis Heal and Clark Schmidt as our four and five. Marcus Stroman for now an extra guy among the many starters that is in the six starter spot with a big salary that you look at and say maybe some desperate team will come calling later in spring training if they just need some innings or he's just the six starter and they'll find a way to make the pieces fit but I think think yet again, they've got a quality bullpen and maybe it's even a little higher quality than it was a year ago.

I think Devin Williams in short relief is an upgrade over Clay Holmes, even though Clay Holmes, as we talked about yesterday, is pretty interesting as a starting pitching project for the Mets. So I mean, where does this rotation rank league wide? Like it seems like it's really strong, maybe with a little heightened risk because of Fried

having some arm trouble that has slowed him down and Carlos Rodin having a lot of arm issues that have plagued him at various points in his career. Fangrass has a sixth on the depth charts behind the Mariners Red Sox. Braves, Phillies, and Dodgers. I don't know about that. That's a little surprising to me. I would have the Yankees rotation ahead of the Red Sox. I know Garrett Crochet, you know,

with his youth and his awesome stuff may actually be the best pitcher in both rotations. But once you get past Crochet, I think I pick like three or four Yankees before I pick a Red Sox. Yeah, I think so. I think, and we're gonna get to the Red Sox in a bit, I think there are some significant disagreements

across projection systems about the quality of the Red Sox pitching. I think that is a big, big source of differentiation. This one is like zips and depth chart. Depth charts are zips plus steamer. So that is that we will see, we are looking at oopsie when we look at the Red Sox rotation, you'll may have a different numbers you're looking at.

But generally I love this rotation. As much as Max Fried's forearm flexor tendon injury bothers me and as much as his low strikeout rate bothers me, he's now like a six pitch wide mix home run suppressor and he's now like a six pitch wide mix home run suppressor. And he's going into a park where, you know, I think that'll be a good, actually a good fit for him because he'll suppress the lefties easily and the righties don't have as much of a vantage.

So I think he'll, he'll, he'll be fine in that park. The only actual worry I have for freed is injury. And I think actually by signing him to such a long deal what they did was they suppressed the average annual value of the deal for the luxury tax purposes, but they also were like, hey, what, like, so what if we miss a full year in here with Tommy John, you know, we have him for eight. So what one of that one year he's not here. That's fine. So that's an interesting way to do things. I think I'm the high man of Garrett Cole, it sounds like. I've been on a bunch of podcasts this week and it seems like I'm the high man of Garrett Cole because I still have him in sort of the, I forget exactly where, top 12.

And his stuff plus last year of Garrett Cole's was the same as it was in 2023. The only difference was that he went to the cutter more than the slider. I think that was probably a little bit injury related. And I think he'll bring the slider back if he's feeling good. And some of the strikeouts will come back. And he was such a volume guy for so long that I'm hoping that this was just sort of a blip in the road for him.

Rodon is as mercurial as they come, but he's at his best, he's really good. And one thing that was really interesting about Rodone in the playoffs was that he seemed to have found a way to harness his emotions. He's always got that like no shirt, open top button, screaming, sweaty mentality. And I think he found a way to kind of rein it in and get fuel from that, but also not like destroy his command. So that'd be interesting

if he did find something mentally there. And then Heal and Clark Schmid are really like just awesome player development wins for them. Just totally different pitchers that came through their system and produce awesome stuff. And then Stroman is really quality depth if he sticks around. And I think he should stick around because you know This isn't a rotation that you give an a health grade to overall But I know that he's making some noise about wanting to start and I don't know what you do with him Yeah, that could be a bit of a difficult situation Just depending on how a few things break over the course the spring

But it could also just solve itself before the end of spring training too. If any one of those guys in the projected starting five go down with an injury. I'm with you though on Cole. I've thought he's been under drafted the entire draft season. It was a nerve problem in his arm. It healed. He came back, looked mostly like himself. I don't think it's, I don't feel like a nerve thing is nearly as bad as a structural problem

with the ligament or something along those lines. No ligament or, you know, no ligament. There was no grade one sprain. Oh, one last thing that's interesting about this team. They are doing something in the bullpen that no other team is doing. They are leaning really hard into right on right changeups. Luke Weaver, Devin Williams, Mark Leiter Jr., Fernando Cruz. These are all changeup geniuses. They're splitters and change ups and they will throw them right on right. They're right handed change up guys. And I think part of it is the rest of the league is just not doing that. You know, it's just like, and maybe part of it is a home run suppression in a park that gives up homers, you know, but they're all like, they all

have excellent strikeout rates. So you can't be like, oh, they're they're giving up soft contact Well, Devin Williams says a 12 k9 He's not doing that and Luke Weaver is Projected for 12 k9 and Luke Weaver that projection might be light on his k9 given that it's reaching back into starter days You know, he's been a revelation as a closer. So even if Devin Williams goes down Luke Weaver is a great closer I don't really like Mark lighter, you know that much, but I do like Ian Hamilton as a closer. So even if Devin Williams goes down, Luke Weaver's a great closer. I don't really like Mark Leiter Jr. that much, but I do like Ian Hamilton, I do like Fernando Cruz.

So I think it's pretty. Yeah, Cruz looks like a little bit of an overlooked acquisition. He was brought in from Cincinnati in a trade that sent Jose Trevino, the backup catcher out. Yeah, so they'll miss Juan Soto, because any team would,

but I think they did a good job overall, kind of patching it up and finding a way to build another really good roster that should make a deep run Looking at the pacota win total projections for these Yankees 88.9 is a number too hot too cold or just right seems too cold That's the same as I was picking some nets, but seems too cold seems a little bit too cold I think they're 94 95 win team as they're constructed unless the doomsday injury scenario hits. But I think Garrett Cole's gonna get a couple IPAs

with the boys. I think it's gonna happen in October. That's one of my favorite sound bites. Wait, does that mean you think they're gonna win at all? I don't think they get IP, doesn't he just do that like if they win a series? I think they're just gonna at least go to the playoffs. Zips has the Yankees at 89 for what it's worth. Yeah if Garrett Cole has two dozen IPAs with the

boys then I think that means they win the World Series. To me that's the difference if we're looking at that. It'll be in Tom Brady Super Bowl parade mode. Remember that after the one with the Bucks and he was just like almost falling out of the boat during the parade? Oh my God, yeah, that was ridiculous. For most people, I don't recommend that level of drunkenness, but for Tom Brady, it was like a rare human moment

or I kind of appreciated it. You know, and also for Garrett Cole, like he doesn't have a title with them, right? Not with the Yankees. And yet they've been so good while he's been there. Like I think he would, we might see, we might see an epic release from Carat Collegi Wands. I mean, he's kind of some mild man or two, right?

Like we might see a shirt tearing incident or something. Ha ha ha ha ha ha. Double hazies just all over their face. Just littering the streets of the Bronx. It's the season to shop new styles, electronics, and definitely a holiday trip. And what if each time you made a purchase, you got a little something back?

With Rakuten, you can earn cash back on just about anything you buy from over 750 stores. So if you're looking to buy a new phone, clothes, skincare, or a getaway, well, you can get cash back. So treat yourself, family, and friends and book that holiday trip now. Start getting cash back today by joining Rakuten. It's free and easy to use,

and you can get cash back deposited into your PayPal account or sent to you as a check. It's the smartest way to shop, plain and simple. Start your shopping at Rakuten.ca or get the Rakuten app. That's R-A-K-U-T-E-N.C-A. Let's move on to the Orioles, where I still just can't get on board with the pessimism that is like wafting around this team.

I think they're still really good. Their window is wide open. God, look at those projections for the hitters. Like, wow, dude. Wow, you have this sorted by, no you don't have it. Not yet. Hold on, there it is. Look at that.

Heston Kirstad is the 10th guy by Played Appearances, has a 106 WRC plus. Their 12th guy by plate appearances has a 101. Their 13th guy is a 102. And the guy I didn't mention has a 98 WRC plus. They go 13th, and McCoy Mayo's 14th and 97. Like, if you wanna be even the slightest bit generous, you say they have 14 bats that are league average or better.

I mean, Dylan Carlson's below the fold on YouTube he's got a 98 from the bad X. What? What is happening here? Love that Heston Kerstad is there, their 10th by plate appearance projected player because I have him everywhere that doesn't bode well. I'm either loud right or loud wrong and Heston Kerstad finally getting his chance this year. We didn't identify the five with the Yankees because I think that one's one of the easiest fives imaginable if you just open up that depth chart, you'll see exactly who the core guys are.

And I think with the Orioles, at least there's some room for debate, right? Obviously Gunner and Adley Rutchman. Rutchman being a catcher means you still have four more spots that you could kind of just play with as who could be everyday guys I think Jordan play a bird play rule of six with and take regiment out if you want, you know five without them If you need so Gunnar Westberg West was a variety, right? Yeah. Yeah. Yeah

I don't think you're you're not West person on a small side platoon guy. Nope. No, I would bump them all the way up to six 25 640 whatever give them give a max I think so and then Colton cows are he's a lefty, but I mean they were using him as the Mullins platoon Yeah, that's I don't think they they're that worried about his splits and and a 116 projected WRC plus You'd expect his let his left on left to be around league average. Are we comfortably looking at Causer and Mullins on a team that also has Tyler O'Neill? Tyler O'Neill... Mullins is not in my circle of trust by the way.

I don't think he's in mine either. Well he's a big side platoon guy for me now. They have luxury. Ramon Larianos there. That's the whole reason of rule of five is he's a big side platoon guy for me now. Right. They have luxury. Ramon Larianos there. That's the whole reason of Rule of Five is he's a platoon guy. So. Right. I think he's safely a platoon guy. I'm a little worried about the power. I think the speed holds on a bit longer.

I mean, the swing and miss isn't terrible. He's still useful. But you could see where, because of the personnel they have, they can lean a bit less on Cedric Mullins. Do you think that number on Tyler O'Neill, 482 plate appearances is purely the function of health? I mean, he's had a very difficult time staying healthy in his big league career.

If he's healthy- He's not a small-sized platoon guy. He's a max guy for them. Look what they're paying him. Yeah, it is interesting to look at plate appearances like this and be like, oh, he's not in circle of trust, but then you're like, no, no, no.

If I'm filling out the lineup tonight, Tyler O'Neill is in. Right. I'm not looking at the handedness of the other side. You know, if I'm filling out the lineup tonight, the guys that I'm putting in without looking at the handness of the other guy are Henderson, Richmond, Westberg, Kauser and O'Neill. I think that's it. And then I look at the handedness and go, Oh, is it a lefty or is it a righty? Is it a righty? Cedric Mullins is in. I will submit Jackson Holliday's name to the discussion as the other guy because if you named five, one was a catcher so there could be a sixth. Is Jackson Holliday capable of breaking through and just being an everyday guy in year two. You know, it is one of those things, I know this has nothing to do with this division, but we were talking about Jordan Lawler on the pod,

and I just wonder, do you bring up a Jackson, they're talking about Jordan Lawler as like, oh, he's going to play where he's gonna play every day, which is probably the minors, you know? And so I just wonder with Jackson Holliday, is like, do you have him in the majors to be? Big side platoon with Ramon Urias. Is that I don't think so the plan I really don't think so. I think you're okay

I don't think he's ready then and you want him to play in the minors Urias and Mateo split second It's two righties. I don't think you necessarily would do that. Move Westburg over, play Mayo. Play Mayo more. Mayo. Mayo could beat Holiday Out in the spring. That could be a kind of under the radar kind of battle. The ongoing frustration with the Orioles and how they're built. The departure of Anthony Santander was supposed to help in the outfield in the sense of opening

up. That's why the signing of Tyler O'Neill is so surprising, because at the time we're like, oh, OK, it's the Heston Kirstead show now. And no, not not on paper. Not yet. First base, the H is just as complicated as what we just just waded through. I mean, if you're drawing just high straight projection, Holliday wins the battle, Mayo goes down.

That's chalk, right? But chalk over one B,BDH is not as obvious because of defensive value. Like, I had people telling me that Heston Kirstad is not even good at first base. Well then he has to be the DH, and that means they have to not use Ryan O'Hern? Yeah.

He's playing DH in the spring. So, and Heston is a lefty, O'Hern is a lefty, and Ryan Mountcastle is a righty. But Mountcastle has the best projection. I think once you know O'Hern has the best projection once you include defense. Why are you here, Ryan O'Hern? I mean, the whole, the, whole, the trio is all pretty good. And Mount Castle just seems too good to be Small Cypothune. So that's the problem is you have, you have a righty that's pretty good,

and then you have two lefties, and you're like, and you have two positions. So there's gonna be some weird, I think he makes the roster though, Kirsten. I mean, if we're just building a bench for the Orioles, what do we say here? We said that because some of it has to do with Mateo's health. Mateo might not make opening day, but let's say Mateo makes opening day. So we're talking about maybe a week after opening day or two weeks after opening day, if we're not talking

about opening. Mateo makes this bench, Loriano makes this bench. They are locks. I think Urias is a lock. And wait, that doesn't make sense. No, Roster Resource has Mateo, well, he's hurt right now, so I don't know, he had internal brace surgery. So he's probably, I would assume, maybe he's on the IL to begin the year. At least that's one of the possibilities.

I'm just saying, like, once he's healthy, what is this bench? Like, I can't even make it because, oh, oh, because you can a Mountcastle and Oh hern So using so okay, so the four bench pieces be Gary Sanchez Ramon Urias Mateo and Ramon Luriano That's in first cursed ads got options. So he's not hitting he goes down So maybe curse that makes opening day because Mateo doesn't but that is a little bit interesting because

Who's the backup shortstop? That means that Jackson Holliday's gonna make this team. Yeah, Jackson Holliday I guess would be the backup shortstop or Ramon Urias probably could be a backup shortstop in a pinch, right? What, he's not a bad defender. No, all right, yeah, sure. I mean, you're not expecting him to do it.

It's more a gunner gets hurt in a game, so who plays it? Sure, you throw him out there for a few innings, the next day you call up someone from AAA or something. Right, yeah, okay. That's the level. I do think it gives a little bit of a nudge to Holiday Over Mayo because Mayo can't play short. They still just need to make a trade.

Just do it already, come on Orioles. What are we doing out here? The problem is that the surplus here, that if you think about this from the way that Orioles think about things they've been trading away guys that are not they don't have great defensive value they're old so like they would love to trade away maybe Kerstad or Mountcastle or O'Hern right depending on what their return was the return on guys like that is not big on the market. No, it's going to be a full freight back end starter at eight figures per year, 10, 12, 15 million.

You're not getting an undervalued pitcher in that instance if you're trading, even Kerstad who still is interesting if he gets an opportunity. The pitching I think is fine. I think we talked about how much we like Grayson Rodriguez during the starting pitcher preview. He may be my favorite like you know break out into an ace level guy this year. I think he's got everything he needs. It's sort of like even with Hunter Brown on

projections but he has not yet made the adjustment that Hunter Brown made you know. So what if he makes that next adjustment and just blows up and I think the sweeper could be that he's throwing the sweeper right now. Yeah, I think losing Corbin Burns stings. It just, it does. Like there was no scenario in which the Orioles lost Corbin Burns and then didn't go out and get Snell or Fried or something where you'd say, okay, they're fine.

It's going to put strain on the mid and backend starters to exceed expectations. Zach Eflin was the guy they brought in at the trade deadline last year, so that's another made the upgrade kind of early part of the problem. They brought in Tomoki Sugano and Charlie Morton for some veteran innings.

I think the projections are really bleak on Sugano. A 474 ERA in that ballpark. I mean, I know he throws 90 and like was striking out 18% of the guys he saw in Japan. Yeah, I mean, they had a really, is this, are you just expecting a Miles Michaelis type outcome though,

where the ERA comes in or run lower than the projection? I think that's gotta be something along the lines of what they're expecting from him. Yeah, I mean, it could be Michaelis like, I mean, he does have command and you know, I do think he has at least one outpitch. So they're saying, hey, lots of pitches, one outpitch, good command.

But when I look at this roster, I see a one, a two, three, and a bunch of fives. To me it's more of a problem come playoff time. Who starts game three? You're right, this can get you through the regular season if everyone stays healthy. And then the other question is what's the bullpen like? I think they're going to lean pretty heavily on the bullpen because you looked at the bullpen projections for the AL East and by ERA at least the Orioles have the best bullpen in

the division right now. Yeah, there's a really interesting piece out from Louis Paulus, P-O-L-L-I-S, who's a friend of the program. And Louis was looking at what happens if you lean heavily on your bullpen. And he was making the argument in a way for depth from your starters. And one thing that he came up with was, I'm trying to find it here, each inning a starter pitches today lowers their team's relief ERA by seven points tomorrow. So I think this has been something that's been putting unseen pressure on the raise bullpen. And I think we've sometimes seen the raise bullpen kind of fall apart due to health,

due to you know just like not being as good as we thought it was at the beginning of the season. And so they have to hope for some depth from their starters as well and that's as any team should. But I was surprised when I saw this to see how good the Orioles bullpen comes out. I really like Felix Bautista. I really like Yannir Cano. And I think Ser Anthony Dominguez, you know, he's really good when the command's there. And I was a little surprised at the money they gave Kitchridge. I mean, they gave him $10 million. I don't know what they necessarily saw about that. But, I don't know what they necessarily saw about that, but he's a high three ZRA guy with a nondescript strikeout rate,

but they really liked him. And it gives them a pretty good bullpen with different types of things. Cano is like the sinker guy. Serentin Dominguez is blow you away with bad command. Felix Batista is one of the three best relievers in baseball if he's healthy. So it's a good mix of stuff.

But I don't like necessarily the starting pitching depth that much and I wish they had a true number two or maybe pocket aces or something. That seems more appropriate for the lineup on this team. Yeah, that seems like the missing ingredient when you try to think about what the Orioles might be trying to acquire come trade to line time this year. It's been a couple of frustrating deadlines

for some fans out there, and maybe 2025 will bring a little bit more on that front. As far as the win total projection for the Orioles, 88.4 right there, about a half win behind what the Yankees had according to Picota. Too hot, too cold, or just right for these Orioles. Zips has them at 89 as well. Hmm, some agreement.

That's really crazy. I'm gonna say too cold again. I mean, you're not gonna win the AL East with 89. I'm gonna say it's just right because of the starting pitching concerns he outlined. I think they're going to be fine. I think they're going to make the playoffs, but I think it's going to be a little more of a sweat than it should be for a position player group.

It's as good as what the Orioles have put together for that core. Let's take a look at the Red Sox. A very busy offseason and a young wave of talent on the way. They were the late winners of the Alex Bregman sweepstakes. They did have a new backup catcher, Carlos Narvaez, but they did lose Tyler O'Neal and Danny Jansen along the way. Big trade, of course, during the winter meetings,

bringing in Garrett Crochet. They signed Walker Bueller. They signed Aroldis Chapman and Justin Wilson for the bullpen. Patrick Sandoval is on a two-year deal, he's out with Tommy John surgery this year, out are Nick Povetta, Kenley Jansen and Chris Martin. So let's start with the bats where we can take a look by plate appearances again. A little easy to see how the core comes together here at least at the very top.

Jaren Duran, Rafael Devers, Alex Bregman, all max volume players as your first three. Tristan Cassis probably safely in there at number four. He is by projections, I agree with that. But then you can see there is a dip of about 100 played appearances before you find the fifth player where Trevor Story with health. I think it's a little bit like the Tyler O'Neill thing.

Like, you know, if he's healthy, he's in. But it's the well, he just hasn't been, unfortunately. And I think the difference right now with the Red Sox is now that you have Roman Anthony and Christian Campbell both knocking on the door to take on prominent roles is you feel a lot better about the scenarios in which Trevor's story's not healthy, right? You're better prepared for that now than you have been the last couple of seasons. Yeah, I mean, because I think David Hamilton

is probably my backup shortstop because of he can handle with the glove and Marcelo Meyer's not ready yet. And they're even talking about Marcelo Meyer playing different positions. I don't think Vaughn Grissom is going back to short. Saddam Raffaello was pretty bad there by the metrics and I think the eye test as well. So I don't, I'm not putting him back to short. So I think David Hamilton is the backup plan, which is too bad because it

doesn't give you an escape valve where you say, you know, somebody plays short. And that's how we figure out this Alex Bregman, you know, Rafael Devers crisis that's in the making. We're talking about Devers saying he doesn't want to come off third and Bregman being a great third base defender. You can put Bregman at second, that's fine. I think that might be where we're headed, but if you don't, Masataka Yoshida's projection is too heavy.

That's the one that takes the biggest hit if you're not going to play Bregman at second. Unless he's going to play a Breyman at second. Unless he's gonna play over Willier Breyu, but Willier Breyu has the same bat projection and is a better glove in the outfield. So yeah, who do you think loses between a Breyu and Yoshida? Who loses the playing time first? Do they play Yoshida in the outfield

to try and convince other teams to take him in a trade? Do they try it first and see how the defense looks? I mean, Willier Breyhugh probably even has options. I mean, he's just came up. Does Willier Breyhugh have options? Yes, he has options, so I don't know. You know, a 107 projection WRC plus for a corner outfielder is not even that great.

You know, you kind of want like a 102, 103, 104 anyway. So Yoshida doesn't have options. He's not going anywhere. So if he's not playing, that's just ridiculous. So I think William Brey who goes down in this situation. Yeah, I mean, that does, it does make the most sense. Just given what they could do. I mean, the way the bench is built right now,

Hamilton, Romy Gonzalez, the back of catcher, Narvaez, they all have options. The only projected bench guy from roster resource who doesn't have options is Rob Ruff-Snyder, who's almost 34 years old and is a small side platoon guy, so he's probably. That's right on the DFA line. Right, he's more likely to get DFA'd

when the prospects are up and things get a little more crowded, right? So they do have pretty good flexibility with a few guys they can send down. I would agree with you if they're going to send someone down from the has a good projection group, it's just sort of will you're a brave unit. It's a tough, it's a tough outcome for a guy that looks

like he could play on a lot of different teams. Right for this team, if Christian Campbell or Roman Anthony played short, you know, if they were, if they were having the Akai for outcome that Marcel Meyer is not having, that's where their biggest set, you know, if they were having the Akaipa outcome that Marcel Meyers not having, that's where their biggest need is. But you look at that sedan Rafaela bat projection, and I think Roman Anthony, you know, whenever

he's ready can take centerfield from Rafael and turn him into a superutil. I mean, we saw that, we said that because we looked at even the contract that Rafael assigned. It is the type of contract where they can still keep him around at that price even as a utility guy. I mean, he has options left too. You could option him if you feel like you don't want to send Yoshida Orabre you down and you play Yoshida

in one of the corners, you play Jaren Duran in center, and you say Raffaella goes back to triple A. And who's the backup center fielder? You do the same kind of thing. You just have to find someone you throw out there in the event of an emergency in the next day. Then you recall Raffaella to play center field. That's, I think the other way they could handle it

if they don't want to send a guy down. I think the only way Raffaella goes down is if Anthony makes his team. And I think that that's a long shot for this year. It's still possible. A long shot for opening day, you're saying. He's gonna play in the big leagues this year. But over the course of this year,

that could be what we see. We could see Story get hurt, Hamilton play short, and Campbell come up to split time. I think Campbell was hurt a lot by Bregman signing, because it's just another infielder. Makes it harder to make it. It just buys the Red Sox a little bit more time to figure out how they want to make the pieces fit

with Christian Campbell, but if he hits enough, they can find a way. I think second base is that wide open spot in the depth chart where you say, when he's ready, he's the guy at the keystone, and it could be a nice power speed combo right from the jump from Christian Campbell. And then the Anthony situation,

that's what causes more of a roster squeeze, because it's a corner outfield profile, right? I think he could play center the first couple of years he's in the big leagues. Yeah, maybe that's part of the solution too. It is really hard to figure this one out. It's like it's a little bit of a Lego Rubik's group, you know, like, you know, they got a there's some pieces that have to fall into place. It could all fall into place. Great.

But it's telling you right now how it's going to fall in place is pretty hard. It's also kind of replicating the same problem we've discussed for a long time though with the Orioles depth chart. It's a good problem to have to have too many good players. Oh, but this is one reason it's sort of important. The age, the Mets and Red Sox were the oldest lineups in baseball last year. On the left you have the oldest lineups, on the right you have the youngest lineups. What you might be surprised to see is that age is correlated with success on the team level. And I think this is because of free agency of if you are 28, then you have made it as a player, right?

It w there's a lot of survivor bias in this. Whereas like, if you're a 27 year old lineup, you're the nationals, you know, you're a young lineup where you haven't sorted through all the guys and, and, and kind of added the free agents and you know what I'm saying? So like you see a lot of rebuilding teams here on the right as the youngest teams, the pirates are one of the youngest lineups in baseball, the Cardinals, the giants, the nationals, the Tigers, the Guardians. So those are the youngest teams. The Marlins are right there.

And of course they're not among the best yet until they start adding free agents and kind of sorting through the young guys. So it's not bad that the Red Sox were the second oldest lineup in baseball, but I do think it's good that they have this infusion of youth coming. I think when you really lock in like the Astros being in the Dodgers being like the eighth and ninth oldest lineups, that says to me that they're also infusing youth, you know, I think being the Mets, you can see at times that they look like an old lineup last year. And you're excited about some of the young guys on the Mets, you know,

stepping forward like Vientos and Alvarez to change that math a little bit. So the fun fact I found while doing some research for this episode is that Pocotta has a runs allowed projection of 746 this year for the Red Sox. And most people don't think about runs in a season in their day-to-day life. So everyone's like, what does that even mean? For for context the a's are projected to allow 754 runs by pakoda that's surprising right when you

think about the red sox especially in an offseason which they added garrett crochet to the top of the rotation fortified the bullpen and even if walker mueller's more of a number four these days than a one or a two they at least replaced Nick Pivetta and then got an upgrade at the top of the rotation. You would think that number might be lower. It just seems like there's a lot of disagreement about the quality of this pitching staff. And the wild card for me that we didn't talk a lot

about this winter is Lucas Gialito, who seems to be further along in his recovery from elbow surgery than we thought going into the off season. It looks like he's gonna be available around the start of the season, if not at the start of the season, which is good news. It's one more possible quality pitcher in the middle or back end of the rotation. So where do you fall on the quality of the Red Sox pitching as a whole? Because I think that really has to have a big influence on how you feel about

what their outlook looks like in 2025 as a team. I mean, one of the things that's so difficult out of this is that Fenway big influence on how you feel about what their outlook looks like in 2025 as a team. I mean, one of the things that's so difficult out of this is that Fenway is the second toughest park in baseball for pitchers. You know, it doesn't necessarily inflate homers, but it inflates everything else, every ball in play. And so that's why you'll see even good pitchers on this list with slightly higher arrays. As much as I love Brian Bayo and I've got him in a lot of places you know I'm trying to take him somewhere where I might be able to play him on the road a little bit more than home you've seen cutter Crawford has like a like a point and a half or something of ERA differential between home and away and that's just gonna be something that they

have to figure out over the course of their careers and so when you look look at the ERA column, you're not going to be impressed with the quality of this rotation, but to have them come sixth, you know, overall, once you kind of look at FIP or just look at value overall, once it's park adjusted, I think that this feels actually like a pretty good rotation because G Lido's and Bueller are guys that could find old levels of production. Crochet, I think, is one of the, you know, on a per inning basis, one of the three best starters in baseball. Bayo is a young change up artist that's coming up that could put it together.

Tanner Hauck just had a great season. So you've got young guys that are kind of in the midst of putting together old guys that could bounce back and One of the three best starters in baseball that seems like it should actually be at least a top 10 rotation And so six doesn't seem that weird You saw in the bullpen projection that this bullpen is not projected to be a strength That is a little bit where it falls apart for me I know that ERA is not the best way to judge them

a little bit where it falls apart for me. I know that ERA is not the best way to judge them, but I do think a role as Chapman and Liam Hendricks as a duo at closer is probably bottom five or bottom ten in the league with Chapman's age and command problems and Liam Hendricks coming back from injury. And then behind them, I like Winkowski a little bit. You know, they've got some pieces, Slayton's all right, but I think this is a bottom half, maybe bottom third bullpen for me. Yeah, I wonder if they'll exceed in that area. I'm intrigued by the group. I think Liam Hendricks, maybe it's because he just seems like a guy you want to root for.

You say, hey, maybe he comes back and he has that Kirby Ye sort of season where it's like oh late 30s coming off injuries still really good like that could be in the range of outcomes might be the top 10% sort of possibility for him but the projections are a little light 401 ERA for Liam Hendrix as a reliever would be pretty pretty odd that means the stuff didn't come back post injury if that's how it turns out for him. But I do think the pitching is where the questions lie with this team overall. And I think I'm with you.

I think the rotation's a little bit underrated overall by some of the folks out there because of the way Fenway plays. Now let's take a look at the Picota win total projection for the Red Sox, 79.7. I was surprised when I saw that number. How can I be cold on, it's going to flip, I think. You'll see me change, but I think this is too cold too.

I think that's a team that can put it together. I don't know where all these wins are coming from, but I have to hold down for me too. I know, that's right, I have to be too hot on something. This has to, how does this math even work? Everything's too cold, everyone's been too cold. I think you may find that I'm more pessimistic about the Blue Jays and Rays in projections. Let's see. Okay, maybe that's where the the leak actually is. So let's get to the Rays next. They took fourth in division last year

and let's sort by plate appearances again as we look at the Bat-X projections for this team. Go away Alexander Canario, thank you very much. Okay, who are the five for the Rays? Whenever we build a bench, 88% of the time we're talking about the Rays, which is kind of ridiculous. There's 30 teams in the league, they all have benches. But the Rays, who inspired the whole thing. Massive word cloud, Mitch Keller, Nick Derobbleis. Billy Cook. It's all in there. Yandy Diaz has the highest playing time projection of the bunch. Okay, sure, I guess that still

makes sense. The highest projection. Wait, that's still a 130 WRC+. Is it fair to say that Yandy Diaz, despite the projections doing this pretty much every year, is one of the more underrated players in just general baseball conversation. 100%. Also, pythons. I mean, yes, it's just absurd. Massive biceps. But I think one thing I like about this raised team is that because of all the mixing and matching and because of The way they just Frankenstein it together so often when a player like jr. Kamen arrow comes to the system

They could make room they could just make him an everyday guy And they don't have to mess around and they don't have the too many good players problem How does the starting lineup fit problem? They don't have the Orioles problem today, right? You can look at Junior Caminero and say, he is an everyday guy on this team. And we largely can trust these projections, even though he spent very little time in the big leagues. And I think he's important for them.

Like if they're going to be a surprise playoff team, again in 2025, Junior Caminero being up all year, playing really well, I think is a huge part of how this lineup gets there. Yeah the top three being right-handers is interesting but like I said before with a couple other right-handers if you think that they're quality then you're not gonna stick these guys in short side platoon and so then you're gonna give them max playing time so I think Diaz, Caminero, Morerell are kind of max playing time guys.

If you shade Morrell's plate appearance level, it's the chance that he's just not good. I mean, he's, there's a chance he's not good. He has fundamental flaws in his approach to the game. His, uh, contact late rates is OBP. Like he has to make powerful contact a lot. It's almost like a Siri S profile. It's not quite as extreme, his OVP, like he has to make powerful contact a lot. It's almost like a Siri-S profile.

It's not quite as extreme, but he has to make powerful contact and kind of slug his way to that WRC+. It's not something that's gonna come through OVP at all. And if he craters and it's hitting 180 again, I think that's gonna take so much value out of the occasional pop that he may just drop out of the circle of trust and I don't know what the bottom

is. I think he is a fascinating player because the ceiling is still interesting, but the floor is through the floor. It's like zero. It's nothing. It's a sort-type platoon that they just keep around because they traded for him. I think the biggest flaw for Christopher Morrell is the lack of a position.

I actually think because he pops in Seeger, his swing decisions are better than you'd think for a guy who strikes out as often as he does. I'm probably yet again drifting into that space where I am deferring to the Rays and saying, you know what, they get away with this all the time, maybe I'm doing that a little bit. I think they're gonna find a use for Christopher Morel.

I think the depth chart is soft enough where a guy that's projected for a 114 WRC plus has a home as part of their core five players. And the worst projection for him, this is not just like a bad ex remnant, I mean the worst projection for him is not just like a bad ex remnant. I mean the worst projection for him is ATC at 104 and oopsie has him at 128. So I mean I just think he's a, I guess what I should have been saying is wide variance. I find him a very wide variance player.

So if I really wanted to create a circle of trust where I'm like, hey, before the season I know this guy's going to be playing every day all the way through the season. I have Diaz, Camineroon Yaron, that's it. It's done, the list is over. It's a rule of two for these guys cuz Josh Lowe and Brandon Lauer are platoon guys so far in their careers. Kim is hurt, De Lucas hasn't established himself. A lot of those other guys are lefties.

They have righties in their core and lefties they kind of put around that core. I don't know. I'm throwing my hands up in disgust. I am throwing my hands up in, I love these messy depth charts because I look for a team that has one like this. I think it's Yandy, Junior Caminero, Morrell, and then Eloy, and when healthy, Ha Sung Kim.

That's their five. And then Josh Lowe and Brandon Lau, Big Cyplatoon. Did you just put five righties in the circle of trust? Yes I did. Wow. Because I'm a madman. I think Christopher Morel is going to hit 35 home runs this year. Wow, we got a bold prediction.

That's the first in the pod. Here we go. I got some gummy bears that have tahini on them. That's Morel. Five spicy gummy bears on that hot take, I think. 25 homers for Christopher Morel incoming. And it's gonna drive everybody crazy, including Cubs fans.

Oh, especially Cubs fans. And I'll take some joy in that. I will take delight in that. Oh, I'm looking forward to that. Can we take bets on which left could could play into full time? I mean, I guess the lefty can't play into full time if the course already. Well, I could play close to it at least or like not sit exclusively against lefties. Maybe that's the best case scenario.

Probably Josh Lowe. Yes. But, you know, if you look at his projection there with, you know, kind of the WRC plus, though, you'd say You'd say he might be below average against lefties theoretically, right? Then you look at the projection for Brandon Lau and you say wow a guy who's predicted to be from 114 to 131 percent WRC plus you'd expect that guy to be 105 110 against lefties,

that's not been the case. That has not been the case. Although, he has been 104 for his career. I'm saying Brandon Lau gets some playing time against lefties. Yeah, maybe it's a revolving door where they give those guys early season opportunities and then dial it up based on who's healthy and on the roster for platoon partnerships too. But I don't know. That's my

spicy take. Five righties kind of popping for the raise. I have a lot of faith. If you give those five guys a circle of trust, then you actually don't need any of the lefties to play against lefties. Right. And I'm probably wrong about at least one of the the two dumb predictions I just made I think it's a lawyer because the projection 109 WRC plus is soft the position He has no position value, you know, I think it's a boy He dropped 30 pounds and they're trying him at first base in the outfield is optimism season right now. It's all He got out of the south side of Chicago. He's no longer a member of the White Sox. Things can only get better for Elioi Jimenez

at this point. Who plays center field for the squad? We've got Reidy, John DeDeLuca, Spenceld in, a round league average of the bat. If he's small side platoon, or if he's sharing the position, I don't see, maybe it's low. Who's he sharing the position with? I don't see, maybe it's low. Who's he sharing the position with?

I don't really see the center field situation like I usually do there. Yeah, DeLuca could be the guy that breaks my all powerful prediction a little bit just because of center field defense being important. That could drive his playing time. He could end up being fifth in playing time on this team. I've just kept wondering with DeLuca,

does he hit the ball hard enough to get to the power consistently? I think it might be a speed over everything sort of offensive profile. That plays, that plays fine in deeper leagues. I've just wondered if some of the stuff we saw from the minors is just not gonna come over in terms of in game power.

It's so weird because he did hit a ball 110 with the Dodgers and AAA, but he's 110.2, he won 09.4 last year. That's borderline, it's not like Nolan Shannuel level. It's not Luis Arias level. It is someone who could hit 12 to 15 homers maybe with that max CV, but the barrel rates have not been there for him, and you're right.

It's been mostly kind of like contact, not even patience, just sort of contact and speed and glove with the occasional homer. Chandler Simpson is a name that everyone should know because he's still with the Major League team. I bet you he'll be one of those guys who plays for a couple of weeks and then goes down to the Miami League camp at some point.

And he has no power at all, maybe, but I think his defense is far superior to Johnny DeLuca. So DeLuca is out there and his defense is only mediocre in center, and he's not showing much pop. Then they could say, let's just take a guy with elite speed and elite glove and just seed pop at the position. Sounds like a nice deep sleeper there in Chandler Simpson. Let's flip it over to the pitching side where not pitching in the trop this year is going to make life more difficult. I think you're going to see that reflected in home run rates.

More homers is probably the across the board sort of adjustment. We know the trop also boosts K's so maybe they get closer to neutral in terms of a strikeout rate park factor. The big tension in this situation though comes from the Rays have good pitchers that you weren't just streaming at home because of the park. They were good enough to be used on the road even in some tough matchups. It's more questions of health, right? Shane McClanahan coming off a second TJ, you know, Shane Baas slowly getting that stuff back late last year maybe. He didn't look quite as crisp as he did pre-injury, but maybe a full off season gives him a chance to beat his projections

a bit. You've talked a lot about Ryan Pepeo this winter as someone you really like. Drew Rasmussen's healthy again. They're stretching him out, we'll see how that goes. The ongoing questions about Taj Bradley and whether or not he can find another pitch that works consistently for him, find something that maybe changes the timing of hitters, that's the main problem for Taj Bradley.

Everything is in the same velocity band. Like you gotta throw off timing if that's gonna be the approach. I think this is still a good rotation all across the board. Like I've found in drafts, they're a little underpriced maybe because of an overcorrection of moving out of the trap. Have you found the same?

I have found the same. I've ended up with a lot of Pepeo. I've been tempted by Bradley and McClanahan. I'm a little bit more nervous about Littell and Boz. Just given the state of Boz's sort of stuff fluctuation and Littell's lack of stuff, a little bit worried. And then Drew Rasmussen sort of lurking, you know, Boz with options and, you know, Littell being a guy who used to be a reliever. So, you know, could one of those guys, if they all stay healthy,

one of those guys is seeding their spot to Rasmussen at some point, I think, you know? And so there's a little bit of performance risk as well as role risk with Bas and Lattelle. So I haven't really jumped at them as much. But Pepio, I think, is interesting because as a 27-year- old with 208 innings of relatively stable production, if you look at what he's done in the major leagues, I find that he

is actually fairly projectable in terms of easy to project. And yet you still see a range of oopsie 366 to the bat 413 steamer 418. And I would assume that that has to do with some of the modeling of the park and that's a half over on of ERA difference between them you know I guess you know Shane McClanahan other than the injury I guess would also be someone that you would find to be easy to reject and his range of is from 382 to 325 so, you find the sort of half run differential. I don't know, I know the park is gonna play harder,

but when it comes to Bradley, McCandley, and Pepeo, I think they can still give you the strikeouts you want, even if the ERA is closer to 38. All right, well, I mean, on that trio, but I think I like Boz even a little more than Bradley, even though we've seen more strikeouts from Bradley. So put me down for optimism on Shane Boz. The bullpen we talked about in the reliever preview a bit, Pete Fairbanks, the stuff just

took a step back last year in a way where you really have to look and say, who else would I speculate on if I'm looking for saves in Tampa Bay because the stuff coming down and the injury history for Fairbanks probably leaves the door open at some point for one of the relievers to close out a lot of games. Edwin Uceda did it really well at the end of last season, so maybe he'd be the first one in just based on that usage, but no shortage of intriguing names, which is always the case in this raised bullpen.

Hunter Biggie is the guy that if you said, who do you think really ends the year as the raised closer? I think Hunter Biggie might be my deep sleeper for this division for the relievers. Yeah. And then Mason Montgomery is really, really exciting as well. I don't know, you know, they, they are getting a little bit older in the tooth in the, in the, um, pull pen. There's some guys that don't have options.

So maybe they just send Montgomery down at first, but this is a lefty with 121 stuff plus that has had strikeout rates north of 30% while he was starting. I guess the only thing that you could think of is maybe they send him back down because he was even starting some last year. Maybe they send him back down to start. He keeps starting to a man like don't make that guy a reliever yet. Yeah, but he is super exciting.

So I guess I would guess and then you know another one that people have been betting on is Edwin Useta because he got some saves last year. But that 107 stuff plus to Hunter Biggie's 114 stuff plus I think that they trend to they seem to know about stuff plus, they seem to have their own number, they lead it in it. And that's partly a park factor, but I think it's also an organizational tendency that this is a stat they value. So I might have Hunter Biggie a step ahead of Usetta, especially once you consider draft

costs and in leagues where these guys are being taken, drafting holds and stuff, Usetta is being taken 10 rounds ahead of Biggie and I'll take 10 rounds of picks and then Hunter Biggie for sure. All in all though, very nice deep group for this raise bullpen yet again. Dakota has a, what do we got, 82.2? Yeah, 82.2 on the raise.

We'll look at the loss column at first. 82.2, too hot, too too cold or just right for these rays. Well, I can't be too cold on everybody. And I'm just going to say just right. Can I be too cold on everybody? I think I can. Am I allowed to get my can I get away with that? I just don't like betting against this team, man.

They just they find a way. They're like the guardians, like the Brewers. They just find a way. Project projections never seem to like them and I increasingly lean more towards teams the projections don't like so I'll say it's a little bit light on these rays and the pitching is better than people realize and they'll find a way to deal with the Steinbrenner field effect and then it's gonna boost the bats a little bit too and answer a few questions I think along the way one more team to get to here We'll try to speed through it not because they're not important

But because we have a meeting coming up the Blue Jays I didn't have a little bit of an underrated offseason and they bring in Anthony Santander for some thump. That's good They make the trade for Andre Samenez great defender at second base Solid player trying to make a tweak to get him back to the levels of a couple seasons ago Even if they don't do that I think they're better having him than they were before they made that trade Spencer Horowitz is out wasn't a huge huge part of their long-term future but an intriguing player nonetheless so it wasn't like it cost them nothing rotation maybe a little bit underrated I don't know I just look at this team and they finished

second for a lot of prospects which is a lot of free agents that is which is frustrating for fans to have to deal with that But they added Mac Scherzer they added Jeff Hoffman to the bullpen Jordan Romano was hurt a lot last year so losing him doesn't sting quite as badly when you bring in a guy as good as Hoffman They also brought Emi Garcia back and got Nick Sandlin in the trade that brought Andres Jimenez up So I do think the Blue Jays quietly did a good job this off season, even though the moves weren't quite as splashy as some of the things that other big market teams did. I hated their off season.

I just thought it was awful, awful all around. You know, I think Anthony Sontara is one of the biggest traps in free agency. Oh, yeah, I wouldn't have done that for as long as they did. But for this year, it makes them better. Yeah. Horowitz, I think was actually surprisingly important because he was the you know, they have so many guys that come up that are pull flyball guys. I like that. But, you know, if you can look at David Schneider and figure out right away what happens if pull flyball is the only tool

in your in your toolbox. You start getting found out, you start striking out a lot and your ceiling is lowered. I think that's a little bit of a problem for Addison Barger as well. It's definitely a problem for Dalton Varshow. You talk about George Springer is in the twilight of his career. Bo Bichette is not projected to be that great of a bounce back. And you know, I'm being pessimistic here, but you could look at this lineup and say there are two bats that are above average.

That is an extreme round down, but I guess that's possible. But I'm just taking all the guys, like when I took the guys on the Orioles that were 97 and 98 and made them 100, I'm taking all the guys here that are 100, 103 and rounding them down. Yeah, that is what you're doing, the jerk move.

So I recognize that I'm being pessimistic, but in order to give them some grace, what I want to say is that I think this is one of the most difficult times for an organization, which is nearing the end of a window. I think they had a window that was really great and they didn't necessarily capitalize on it all the way. And then when you near the end of a window. I think they had a window that was really great and they didn't necessarily capitalize on it all the way. And then when you near the end of it, what do you do? Do you, like

the Astros, do you maybe trade Kyle Tucker a year early, but also, you know, spend on free agency and maybe make some poor decisions like Jose Breyu and stuff? Do you try to keep the window open that way? You know, they seem to be like, we're trying to put little pieces around this aging core and just get a little bit better in a lot of places and hope that Boba Shet just has a vintage Boba Shet season and Stuart Springer has one last ride in him. And Andres Jimenez, we are going to tweak him, but it just seems like lipstick on a pig a little bit. What am I putting my don't, what am I putting my hands into and saying, this is what's gonna happen with the Blue Jays.

This is what I'm excited about. Guerrero, and I think it's, when you said I was being pessimistic about the Yankees, I think to tell the story of the Blue Jays being like a contender for the top this year, you have to be as optimistic as I was pessimistic about the Yankees, and I was just playing pessimist. So just to play optimist, you have to be as optimistic as I was pessimistic about the Yankees. And I was just playing pessimist. So just to play optimist, you have to be saying,

okay, yes, Bo Bichette's going to bounce back, all the Springer's going to be good, Santander is not going to take a step forward, a step backward. Andres Jimenez is going to find out that power that he's missing. Dalton Varsha is going to stay healthy all year. Alondra Hunter-Kirk is going to stay healthy all year. And the old guys we have in the rotation we haven't even talked about yet, they're they're all gonna be good too despite declining stuff for all of them so I guess you won't be doing radio hits in Toronto this I guess I guess I'll I'll take those on for you just to they do call me yeah no Blake's awesome like job but I we have on the screen is the Bat-X projection,

easily the worst projection you'll find on Boba Shet. Boba Shet's been 20% better than the average all five seasons he's played in the big leagues except for 2024. He was hurt last year. Like I just think the Boba Shet projection from the Bat-X reminds me of the time the on fire garbage truck dumped its load out

in the intersection right outside my window a few years ago. Like that is a ridiculously bad projection. And I look at him like, I don't know what to do with that. Like that doesn't make any sense to me. Sure, the stolen bases are flimsy. I think he's a good hitter. I think he's still young enough where his approach will still work for a bit longer.

So I think if you look at the bright side on Boba Shet, and you still have a nice core of him and Vlad, you see decent secondary supporting cast. I think they do some things differently with this roster. I think they have deep sleepers that could emerge that are kind of interesting. I have a lot of shares of Jimenez. I'm not fully out on every player or anything. I have a lot of shares of Jimenez because I think that he gives you non-zero power and a lot of steals in second base.

I think he's been undervalued at second base in drafts that I've done. And I have some shares of Bowden Francis, and I do believe that I have Max Scherzer too low. One thing that I wanted to just point out about Bowden Francis is that this is interesting too. You see the arm angle. You can see how all of his pitches are along like his arm angle. Yeah, they're just the perfect diagonal. Yeah, it does mean that he doesn't really have deceptive movement that his arm angle produces the movement you kind of expect But there's a little bit more ride than you expect on the fore seam, which is good But also what I want to point out is one of BP's arsenal metrics was about kind of the space That you occupy with your movement how big of a spread it is and you can see that

This has got to be one of the bigger spreads in baseball. In fact, I think that he was number one in their movement spread profile. Cause you see that curve ball all the way out there in the 24 circle and then the four seam way up there on the 24 circle. This is a large spread of movements that batters have to honor.

And that splitter has really been the important, you can see how that splitter occupies a place that is super important and has been the breakout for him. So I know that Bowden Francis was so great last year that he's going to regress, but I've found times when I think people over-correct for that. So the Blue Jays bullpen also not great. And look at it compared to what the Rays and Red Sox are projected to do I just think it's not lagging that far

behind I think I'm pretty optimistic about Hoffman in particular just being the answer in the ninth inning I think there's a little more depth here than they're getting credit for that Nick Sandlin edition for example I think is kind of nice and they've got Eric Swanson, Yumi Garcia, Chad Green. Yumi Garcia is an underrated reliever for and. And I like Chad Green, so it's okay. Yeah, it's okay. I would take this. It gets a little bit better. I would take this bullpen over the socks bullpen.

Okay, see, now we're building something. I think Kevin Gossman started the year hurt, wasn't quite himself all year, maybe he could get a little bit of bounce back from him. Chris Bassett had the bad outcome in his range of outcomes last year. He sure doesn't look pretty good in his first start. Yeah man, I don't think this is lipstick on a pig.

I think it's Lodum. I think it's Lodum. I need a Blue Jays t-shirt with Lodum in there. The number, like the numbers that they have on the uniforms. The font type. Oh, that weird, like the kind of the strikes through it. Yeah man, I like those. That would look good. Lodum would look good in that, yeah. Oh of lines the strike through it. Yeah, man. I like I like those That would look good loading would look good in that. Yeah. Oh, we got to get that made that has got to happen

All right, so time is at a premium here So we're gonna get to our sleepers real quick sleeper hitter from the AL East I'll go first from this blue Jays team Alan Roden deep deep guys Give me some Alan road what but I take your guy. No what tell me some Alan Rodin. What? But I take your guy? No, what? Tell me about Alan Rodin. Like he's not on my radar at all. You're not on Alan Rodin from Creighton?

No, I'm not. Tell me about him. It's a third rounder out of Creighton. Look at his OVPs, man. He runs high OVPs. He's got power. What team is he on? He's a Blue J.

OK. He got up a triple A last year. He's a leaderboard guy. He's an outfielder, man. Like Alan Roden, dude. I didn't just make that up. I'm not accusing you of making it up. And he's going to take over.

Does he play center? Is he going to take over for Varsho? Or I don't think he's going to play center. He's got 40, 45 scouting grades, so I think it's a little more of corner. But I think he is kind of like an outfield version of Spencer Horowitz with some speed. That's better than Spencer Horowitz. Give me some on Roden.

All right. I like it. I'll take it. I guess I'm going to go with Andres Jimenez, actually, for all of the talk that I had. You know, one thing that I found is just that he represents a little bit of a drop off when it comes to, you know, talent pool at second base. If you just look at the bat X projections for second base, you get Andre's a man is at seven.

This is $7 and a 12 teamer. If I make it 15 with an MI,'s gonna go up a little bit, but Let me see here with 15 with an MI. He's a $14 player There's Bryson Stott behind him and I've what I've circled usually in drafts is under some medicine Bryson Stott because there's kind of similar If you just go by projections, they're gonna give you stolen bases You don't know what the power is gonna be the average might be okay. You know they're very similar players actually and So I've circled them I don't really want glaver Torres in Detroit Luis the rise is a very build specific guy

This is I'm just listing the guys behind him You know Luis the rise is very build specific where yes, I'd be excited to get him certain builds other builds where my batting I was just good. I don't want him. You know crystal room Rels It's kind of similar where it's like if my batting average is soft at all, I'd be a little bit worried about putting Morel in there. I don't really like India and Kansas City, although that might be where I go if things go poorly and Jimenez and Stock go right before me and I've waited too long. Gelof is a batting average risk.

Cronenwerth is okay, but now you're starting to leave like starting second base behind because Cronenwerth is 16th. So Jimenez to me is like a pocket, end of a tier, you know, and so that's why he's ended up in a fair amount of my teams. Alright, I'm on it. And that's without saying like without saying like he needs to get power back, you know, that's just hit me 10 home or steal me 30 bases and hit 260 or whatever and you'll still be a without saying like he needs to get power back. You know, that's just hit me 10 homers, steal me 30 bases and hit 260 or whatever. And then you'll still be a good spot in drafts. All right, my sleeper starting pitcher from this group,

just an underrated guy, not a sleeper. I think Tanner Hauck, I'm buying into the Tanner Hauck, Logan Webb 2.0 narrative that I created a few weeks ago, which is just getting high on my own fumes, but hey, what are you supposed to do? Yeah, but you know, Tanner Huck already took the step forward, you know? So, you know, for me, Sleeper is someone who hasn't taken the step forward. And a lot of times you have to kind of look beyond what's in front of you and sort of think about like what

they could do or just like load them. So Brian Bayo is my load them guy. And like quite literally almost because Stuff Plus says 97 Stuff Plus doesn't like him, gives them an 89 Stuff Plus on the change up and I think it's just wrong. I think it's a plus change up, a pretty good slider that can be average, a plus thinker. I think this is actually a pretty good slider like that can be average a plus thinker.

I think this is actually a pretty good package for Fenway and I think it just needs a little tweak like maybe a cutter. Maybe the four seam just takes a little leap forward this year or maybe he just has like a good year command wise. I mean this is the kind of picture where you know just a slight uptick in command and he could have you know like Ranger Suarez or something where it's just like, oh yeah, okay, this is his year and he just seems,

he's been my lowdom sleeper and he's been, I've got a fair amount of shares of him because I just like pieces of it and I think parts of it just could get a little better and he'd be all of a sudden a 3-7-5 guy with just enough strikeouts and a lot of wins on that team. Bezos definitely load him at this point. People are just not as excited about him as they were a couple of seasons ago, so he's

fallen into that category. Last one is the sleeper reliever. I mentioned it when we were talking about the Rays. Hunter Biggie. I know it's going to be the Hunter Biggie went to Harvard. That's going to be the thing everyone says about him because apparently you have to say that when someone goes to Harvard. But maybe three pitches out of the bullpen fastball slider are really good We'll see if that curveball comes through to tons of strikeouts

I think he finishes the year as the Rays closer even though there could be a few other options ahead of him in that pecking Order initially. Yeah, I'm gonna go with Jimmy Garcia just because I'm worried the the Jeff Hoffman injury just because I'm worried the Jeff Hoffman injury concerns that came up and the concerns about his physical It could just be that they didn't think that he could start and that this was you know So they had to change the number and then he didn't want to change the number whatever was me It could just been negotiation But just the fact that that came up makes me look at who's behind him Chad Green could close so you want to if you you wanna make it co-sleepers, but Yumi Garcia is the model guy.

He strikes out more guys. Had a 122 stuff plus. Still has a nice Ebon hour fastball, so Yumi Garcia is a sleeper for me at Reliever in the AL East. There you go, one more note from Alan Roden's track record now. He's been a Blue J both in college and the big Liz Creighton of course the blue J's as our producer Brian Smith Points out so forever a blue jay we are going to go and oh by the way

I don't think either one of us could pass a big league physical I'm convinced neither one of us would pass like that we'd be aside from not having the talent anyway What I threw Robert Stock said you know do you have a shoulder injury because Looks like when you throw it. I'm like maybe I don't know who's ever image my shoulder I'd love to know how many problems. I've developed despite being a terrible athlete that would be phenomenal Join the discord link in the show description you can find us on blue sky You know is you know Sarah's top B sky dot social I'm DVR top B sky dot social Thanks to our producer Brian Smith putting this episode together. We are back with you on Thursday show description you can find us on blue sky, eno is enoseris.bsky.social, imddr.bsky.social,

thanks to our producer Brian Smith for putting this episode together, we are back with you on Thursday. Thanks for listening. Look at this line up dude, ugh, what a beautiful line up.