Rates & Barrels - 2025 Catcher Preview

Episode Date: January 17, 2025

Eno and DVR continue their position preview series at catcher, where the league formats (one-catcher leagues v. two-catcher leagues) have a considerable impact on how to approach the group. Does Willi...am Contreras provide enough value over his position mates to justify at Top-30 overall ADP (in two-catcher leagues). Where is there value at the position, and which situations are better to avoid? Rundown 5:38 ADP Tier 1 -- The William Contreras Tier 12:07 ADP Tier 2 -- Yainer Diaz, Adley Rutschman, Salvador Perez, Willson Contreras, Cal Raleigh & Will Smith 34:00 ADP Tier 3 -- Shea Langeliers, Logan O’Hoppe, J.T. Realmuto, Tyler Stephenson & Francisco Alvarez 43:28 ADP Tier 4 -- Gabriel Moreno, Austin Wells & Keibert Ruiz 52:19 ADP Tier 5 -- Sean Murphy, Iván Herrera, Connor Wong, Ryan Jeffers & Joey Bart 1:10:12 ADP Tier 6 -- Alejandro Kirk, Bo Naylor, Patrick Bailey & Jonah Heim 1:14:36 -- The Late, Late Catchers of Interest (Beyond Pick 300) Follow Eno on Bluesky: @enosarris.bsky.social Follow DVR on Bluesky: @dvr.bsky.social e-mail: ratesandbarrels@gmail.com Join our Discord: https://discord.gg/FyBa9f3wFe Share your Positional Rankings in the HiveMind Ranks at Catcher https://forms.gle/GSDeDsWFneu1zzfp9 Subscribe to The Athletic: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels Hosts: Derek VanRiper & Eno Sarris Producer: Brian Smith Executive Producer: Derek VanRiper Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:00:00 There's a hostage situation in the Olympic Village. You're sports. You're way over your head. People can't stop talking about September 5. It's a man house down here. It's one of the best movies of the year. What's happening? Oh, God. September 5 in select theaters, December 13th. We're so done with New Year, New You.
Starting point is 00:00:19 This year, it's more you on Bumble. More of you shamelessly sending playlists, especially that one filled with show tunes. More of you finding Geminis because you know you always like them. More of you dating with intention because you know what you want. And you know what? We love that for you.
Starting point is 00:00:34 Someone else will too. Be more you this year and find them on Bumble. This winter, take a trip to Tampa on Porter Airlines. Enjoy the warm Tampa Bay temperatures and warm Porter hospitality on your way there. All Porter Fairs include beer, wine, and snacks and free fast-streaming Wi-Fi on planes with no middle seats. And your Tampa Bay vacation includes good times, relaxation, and great Gulf Coast weather. Visit flyporter.com and actually enjoy economy. Rognarades and Barrels, it's Friday January 17th, Derek and Rhyper Enocerous here with you with the fifth installment of our Position Preview series.
Starting point is 00:01:31 Today we go behind the plate and we break down catchers. And there's a lot to dissect here because a lot of leagues out there only require you to start one catcher. But the leagues we talk about a lot on this show, the leagues we play in, NFBC leagues, they all require us to start two catchers. So the strategy differences between the two leagues. Oh yeah, you got that down. You got that down.
Starting point is 00:01:54 I thought your mic was broken at first. No, that's the proper effect. We can have a little conversation about whether or not one catcher leagues make more sense and dig into that a little bit in just a moment Regardless of the number of catchers you have to start in your league you can rank them in our discord go to the hive Rankings channel will have a post for catchers in there linked to a forum where you can submit your own Rankings your agreements your disagreements your sleepers all, all in one place, getting lots of nice responses
Starting point is 00:02:25 coming in for the first four positions so far. There's a pinned message at the top of the channel with all the links for all the positions so far. So if you missed one, you'll have to go scrolling back. Just go to the pinned spot in the hive channel and you will find that. You can join our Discord using the link in the show description.
Starting point is 00:02:40 All right, you know, so you clearly don't like catchers. What's your beef with catchers? I mean, it's the worst offensive position on the field. And you have to have two of them? We don't ask you to have two of anything else. I mean, you have five outfielders, yes, but you know, there's three on the field, so. The argument I get from the generation of people
Starting point is 00:03:02 who played fantasy baseball for us, basically people that either invented the game or at least helped popularize it or make it possible for us to have careers talking about it, they say it makes the game too easy by not having a second catcher. That's one of the core arguments, and I just think to myself,
Starting point is 00:03:19 is that the biggest challenge of playing the game, is finding a good second catcher, and is that a challenge worth maintaining if it even is true? I'm with you I think the move is to say if you're the commissioner put it to the league say how about we do two utility spots instead of two catchers still the same number of hitters give you some flexibility at an infield spot you want to use a second catcher there great anybody in the infield works maybe there's a strategy angle that could work if you get two elite catchers and give yourself some buffer Maybe that actually is a good idea in certain instances, right?
Starting point is 00:03:51 I don't think two catchers is the right way to play even though it is frequently discussed on this show Only angle that I kind of like about it is that it does add a wrinkle. You know, with any game, and I think what fascinates me and hopefully our listeners with fantasy baseball is that there's a lot of different ways to win. You know? And if there was only one way to win, it wouldn't be as exciting. You know? That's frequently cited as a concern with the regular sport of baseball with the actual sports So there's only sort of one way to win and I think I'm happy when the Padres
Starting point is 00:04:33 Go aggressive on payroll on free agency and trade away all their prospects because that's different, you know, I'm happy when a team Steals a ton of bags and just is the go-go team, you know, you know, I'm happy when a team steals a ton of bags and just is the go-go team. I'm happy when the Rays do that. I'm happy when the Guardians are like, hey, we're all about contact over here. So that's cool when that happens. And so at least having two catchers gives you
Starting point is 00:04:59 a couple of wrinkles. Are you going to be the two elite guy? Are you gonna be the two, the sort of punt the position guy? Are you gonna to be the two elite guy? Are you going to be the two, the certainly punt the position guy? You know, are you going to be the manager that, you know, decides to have one of each? You know, so I think there is a little bit of strategy that adds to the game, but generally these aren't very good hitters. So you're not looking at very good hitters and doesn't make it harder.
Starting point is 00:05:24 I don't know. I mean, it would be like if you took them out, the average batting average across your team would be, you know, closer to 260, 262 or something. So you'd still be it's gonna be hard. You know, you'd have to figure out how to keep your batting average higher, you know, if you didn't have catchers in there. So at the same time, I have a perverse pleasure with, you know, if you didn't have catchers in there. So at the same time, I have a perverse pleasure with, you know, right now in my draft and hold I'm looking at fourth second baseman and fourth catchers and there's something
Starting point is 00:05:56 fun about it because you're just deeper than most people are when they play this game. It's fun to be right. It's fun to get playing time situations right or to get skills growth right and at least having a second catcher or playing in draft and hold or mono leagues going to the very bottom of the pool. You're tapping out all of your resources trying to find and see things that other people don't see. So in that sense, it's not the worst thing in the world.
Starting point is 00:06:19 But I think as far as like how you'd structured if you were building the game from scratch today, probably one catcher replacing that second spot with UT or infielder, not the end of the world if you don't so we're gonna cover a lot Of them and you say there are no good hitting catchers. How dare you sir Is it phenomenal hitting catcher and I'm not just saying that because as a brewer he was great even as a shared catching Player in Atlanta sharing that role a couple years ago before the trade He looked like a very special bat and he's shown that in an everyday role It's like 20 homers the good average great run production just looks like the norm around here nearly 1300 regular season plate appearances in the last two seasons combined part of the boost there though does come from the Brewers using him as
Starting point is 00:07:00 A DH about every fifth game or so to keep the bat in the lineup But to also rest his legs a little bit so he's a high volume catcher who hits enough to be a DH on a team that will still probably afford him that option they do have one of their top prospects Jefferson Caro who's down for an in down with a shoulder injury last year he's healthy again so maybe he works his way out of the depth chart and is that sort of highly touted backup that eventually takes some time away, but I don't really see a massive drop in playing time so long as William Contreras stays healthy.
Starting point is 00:07:33 The skills really look solid, but what is tricky is that he is in a tier of his own by average draft position. We talked about some inflation that we see in the auction calculator where the weight that the calculator puts on catchers is huge. It drives the dollar values up and you have to be a little bit careful about drafting catchers too early if you take those dollars that it spits out at face value for the position. People are drafting William Contreras as a second rounder.
Starting point is 00:07:59 That is a thing that's happening. Again, those are two catcher leagues where that's happening, but in that circumstance, how early are you drafting William Contreras? Are you anywhere near that ADP or does he have to fall a full round or more before you start to think that it's a good idea to build a team with him in your foundation? I mean, it's an amazing difference in the auction calculator. He is a $30 catcher. You know, $30 players are top 15 bats overall really top 13 by oopsie and You know, that's a real advantage when you're talking about You know Another way of saying it is that William Contreras even if he wasn't a catcher would still be worth a lot
Starting point is 00:08:40 It's not all in the position adjustment. In fact, if you take the position adjustment away, William Contreras would be worth $8. Wilson Contreras would be worth $1. Salvador Perez would be worth $1. Yannier Diaz and Cal Raleigh would be worth 50 cents. And every other catcher would not be worth a dollar or it wouldn't even be zero. Shea Langley is just minus five
Starting point is 00:09:04 if you took away his catcher designation. I think you do have to adjust though. Every position is worth at least eight bucks, I think as far as what they give them. So instead of getting a $24 boost, they'd get an $8 boost. So you had to take $16 off if you're adjusting and saying if Wilson Contreras were a shortstop, for example, well he doesn't steal a lot of bases
Starting point is 00:09:26 compared to other shortstops, and there's a little less run production, little less power, it would ding him pretty good. It's true, there are position adjustments for everybody, it's true. But he'd be 15 bucks if he was a shortstop by the auction calculator. But that's still a pretty good shortstop,
Starting point is 00:09:40 and it's way far and above everybody else. And in terms of plate appearance projected He's projected for 626 Wilson is projected for 601 because he's actually the first baseman Salvador Perez DHS and he gets 611 and nobody else gets 600 plate appearances of the position So this is a theme that will come back to I do wonder, you know Is it a Brewer's situation wonder you know is it a Brewer situation where you know they don't spend that much and they don't have a great offense is it you know Christian Yellen's being out last year there were these 30 games that Wilson
Starting point is 00:10:16 Contreras or 35 games it was contrast William Contreras played DH will he play those same 35 games this year with Kristen Yelich back Jackson Churio emerging How much is yellows gonna play the outfield with Sal Freelick and Garrett Mitchell and Blake Perkins out there? That are gonna play better defense than him so You know as much as William Contreras gave us, you know, all that goodness last year, I don't think he'll get back to 709, 679 plate appearances.
Starting point is 00:10:51 And there may be a concern at some point that this is a pretty robust workload for a young catcher and he may drop back to sort of 600 high five hundreds. I don't know when that'll be, and if it's this year, and if they have the personnel to say, oh, we have enough to rest our bat that's 30% better than the average in not playing with DH, but there could come a time where they decide to kind of do more load management with him.
Starting point is 00:11:20 Even with all the outfield depth the Brewers have had in recent years, you can take a look at 2024 and say, well, Jelic, for every three games he started, played two in the outfield. So I think coming off of surgery, they might be a little more careful with him initially. I don't think they want to move him to full-time DH. I think it leaves them more possibilities like this, gives them options to play a good defensive first baseman if they carry one on the roster this year, move Rhys Hoskins to DH.
Starting point is 00:11:47 They can do all sorts of little things with their roster. So the long-term concern of any catcher maintaining this level of playing time is completely valid. I think he's got one more year where he can be maybe the leader at the position, health permitting. The furthest he's fallen in a draft in the NFPC the last 14 days is pick 30 So the use case here for me would be okay. I had the first overall pick the 15 team league
Starting point is 00:12:12 It's coming back to me at the end of round 2 He does happen to fall and I'm not gonna pick again. I can add a pitcher to him anyway I guess do a pitcher in the third instead or whatever. It doesn't matter right there pick 30 31 And then I got to wait all the way until the end. I'm gonna miss every other lead catcher There's no other way to get an elite catcher if you have the first probably first or second pick There's no other way to get an elite catcher Unless you get William Contreras there because that's where the other guys that are I think there's a there's a hard tier That includes him his brother Salvador Perez and Yannir Diaz
Starting point is 00:12:48 I think you'd get a shot at all those guys at the four or five turn We have to decide the premiums worth it is that extra of seven or eight dollars in value you're getting from William Contreras worth getting the Extra boost at the position compared to your league mates Maybe in that circumstance it is but that's sort of an outlier sort of scenario to prepare yourself for. He doesn't always fall to pick 30, he just occasionally falls that far. Tier 2 is good, it's a really nice group. By ADP, Jainer Diaz goes a little earlier than Adly Rutchman. Salvador Perez isn't too far behind. You mentioned Wilson Contreras moving over to first base, that's a huge deal for his playing time volume,
Starting point is 00:13:25 at least the potential playing time volume he'll get this year in St. Louis. You've also got Cal Raleigh, and kind of at the back of the top 100, Will Smith, who I think belongs more in this group than in the next one. You could have probably drew that line in either place. I kind of draw a line after Contreras there.
Starting point is 00:13:43 If you're talking about elite, I mean, if you wanna talk about acceptable above average, then you add rally and Smith you'd start, you know talking about hey We're in a 12 team league You know, you've just put six guys in the first here. You know, I mean, yeah I think there's really comfortably the top four because Cal rally has a batting average flaw and We'll talk a little bit more of that later and Will Smith may not have that but He's not gonna get the big playing time of the top guys. Yannor Diaz, I think will Play some DH in first base. The Christian Walker signing
Starting point is 00:14:15 Maybe chips away at some of the first base But yeah, DH floating I think in Houston is enough of a floor where playing time is gonna come in high for Diaz He lost a few barrels last year because the ground ball rate ticked up. It was at 51.2% for ground ball rate after 43.2% in his debut. There is a lot of chase, we knew that going in, but there's probably enough hit tool for him to continue getting away with his approach. At least for the next couple of seasons. For his young career, Yener Diaz is now hitting 291 with a 317 OBP.
Starting point is 00:14:46 So OBP leagues, he's among the many players at this position who do get dinged, but a 476 slugging percentage. I think he definitely belongs in this tier. I think when you run projections and you run auction dollar values, you're gonna see numbers that are really similar for at least three or four players in this group.
Starting point is 00:15:03 So you really do have to make your own kind of personal preference list and find ways to break ties, be that maybe supporting cast and are the Astros a top five offense again in 2025? That's where they finished by team WRC plus last season. And it looks like Bregman is gonna move on because they've got Esauk Paredes there
Starting point is 00:15:22 and they already brought in Christian Walker to help solve their first base situation. Is this Astros team just as good as what we saw a year ago or do you think they take a step back and maybe the counting stats for some of the guys we've relied on also come down with it? It's interesting, I think they are a little step back. They lost Kyle Tucker and they lost Alex Bregman.
Starting point is 00:15:46 They might have evened it out a little bit and adding Walker was good, but it's a slight step back. The thing that I love about Diaz is the combination of strikeout rate and battered ball quality. I think that's pretty important because this is a group that doesn't hit for batting average and he will hit for batting average.
Starting point is 00:16:08 That's why I went and took him in my current draft and hold and in the fourth round, it might have been a mistake because the auction calculator says Wilson Contreras and Salvador Perez are better deals. and Salvador Perez or Better Deals. I was trying to get my first sort of five to 10 bats to be not over 30. Okay, you want the old core, fair. I didn't want an old core. I wanted to kind of like 27 to 30. I wanted 25 to 30.
Starting point is 00:16:39 I wanted these guys that are in their peaks, didn't have health grade issues. I wanted high floor. And so Diaz was my pick. And you're right, the calculator has them 50 cents apart. So it's not that big of a mistake. But now looking at it, and looking at Oopsie, which has come out since I drafted Yanir Diaz, Wilson Contreras is really interesting at first base and DH.
Starting point is 00:17:07 Steamer, oops he says he's gonna hit 27 homers. He's never done that so it's fair to be like well he's never done that. However he's never been the first baseman and this may be one of his best years in terms of workload. So it may not take a like a lot of batted ball quality or swing quality or whatever it is to just be like, hey, what would Wilson Contreras over 650 plate appearances look like? And I kind of think that's really interesting. However, I would have had to just take Wilson Contreras
Starting point is 00:17:37 and say, I don't care about the ADP because he wasn't gonna get back to me. There will become a time where you just have to pick one of these top four and go for it. I don't actually include Rutchman. Rutchman there. You don't think Rutchman belongs in that group. Why is that? I was left sort of cold with the way the season ended and you know looking back his barrel quality has never been that great. There were some real concerns for me
Starting point is 00:18:06 that he's been figured out in some way. I've been chalking it up to the injury. We talked about it. I think he got hit by a foul tip or hit by a pitch. Can't remember which it was. I know he got hit and his hand wrist wasn't quite the same from about late June on. Pretty sharp difference in splits for how his season went.
Starting point is 00:18:22 And when you look at what Richmond had put together in 2023, it was a 20 homer season, still got to 19 last year with a good average, 277 over heavy heavy playing time, right? I think Rutchman is maybe the only other catcher who's mostly a catcher, but also DH is just like William Contreras does, where you could say, that playing time might actually come in near a max. Like I think there's a way I can talk myself
Starting point is 00:18:46 into that happening again. He's still a few years away from free agency. I think the Orioles are gonna work him pretty hard in the next couple of years, and maybe he's not getting that long-term extension. Maybe he's not part of the long, long-term future in Baltimore, even though he's gonna be there for these next three seasons, barring some kind of trade.
Starting point is 00:19:02 So I look at, I look at Rutchman, I think this is a really steady profile and we're probably going to laugh at ourselves for that little bit of a discount that we're getting right now. So I could see if I'm stacking these guys up by position, William Contreras is one, I think Rutchman comes in at two for me. It's not by a wide margin. Again, we're splitting hairs in 50 cents, dollar, dollar 50 on the auction calculator, but I think I also, I have a little more faith in the Orioles lineup than I do in the Astros lineup
Starting point is 00:19:27 And they did play a good chunk of last year without Kyle Tucker But I think they will miss him Dearly this year because the replacement situation in the outfield doesn't look nearly as good as what they've been able to do so far On the infield corners. He's not gonna give you the plate appearances of the other guys, I don't think. You really think Rutchman's gonna fall short in plate appearances? Yeah, I do think so. I think that'll be part of their plan for this year to,
Starting point is 00:19:54 you know, what are you doing in Baltimore right now? You're trying to figure out how not to fall apart at the end of the season like he did last year. I don't know, though. I think that's what they've done with Adley, though. They've built that in. Like, they're not falling apart. I guess the other way you could look at it Say compared to Milwaukee where that list of?
Starting point is 00:20:11 Clearly above average bats is not nearly as long talk so many times about the Orioles having 10 or 11 guys with WRC plus projections above 100 the Brewers don't necessarily have a Heston Kirstead and a Kobe Mayo and a Jackson Holliday and all these guys all these guys that don't have a spot whereas the Orioles do so overflow playing time for a Rutchman at DH might not be as much of a necessity for the Orioles if those guys are hitting at the levels that are expected so I guess that could be your best case to say they they can back off of him because of their depth, but they haven't done it
Starting point is 00:20:46 and they've had the chance to do it before, so I'm a little higher at Adley Rutchman than you are. Totally fine, we don't have to agree. I find him very conventional at the plate in terms of his approach. Like, he doesn't swing at first pitches. You know, he swings at pitches like, first pitches 8% of the time.
Starting point is 00:21:03 You know, and I think that some of it was exploitable. Anyway, yeah, I'm not trying to talk too much crap on him because he is, I think he is a good one. I would just, if I racked it, I would go William Contreras. And having taken Yanir Diaz aside, William Contreras, Wilson Contreras for the extra, you know, play to parents juice. Plus he's like a 250 50 to two 60 hitter with power. And then I think I'm going to take Yaniel Diaz over Salvador Perez because of Salvador Perez's age.
Starting point is 00:21:33 At some point it has to matter. You know, even you take away the catcher designation, you take away everything. At some point you like believe a 35 year olds projection less, you know and Yes, his projection for 260 average and 25 26 27 homers is great But I'm just gonna believe it a little bit less given his age and you know, I'm to be frank his workload So I'm gonna take Yainir over Salvador by age and then I think I'm going to take I'm gonna take Yaneer over Salvador by age, and then I think I'm going to take Rutchman there, and I'm willing to put the line that I've got
Starting point is 00:22:09 where I want one of these guys behind Rutchman and ahead of Cal Rowley. All right, I'm mostly on board with that group being a cut above. I think Rowley versus Sal, though, is a good toss up. Maybe Rowley's the new Sal in some ways.'s just big big pop big dumper it's the name holds up he's a catcher averaging 30 homers a year calling T-Mobile his home park it's very impressive and it's elite defense it's a team that needs as many high quality
Starting point is 00:22:39 bats as they can find so they have every reason to just keep using Cal Raleigh at an extreme level, it's just as much as he can shoulder, but it's the average is clearly going to be something that can hurt you and it's going to be over a very large share of playing time which is, it's the thing that actually drags his Roto value down even though the counting stats and the power
Starting point is 00:23:04 are very, very reliable. Yeah, he actually gets a little bit more playing time than usual, but I do have a rant set for this, which is, here's a story about batting average and catching. So, you know, I started into this saying, well, you know, catchers don't play as much, and so their batting average doesn't hurt as much. So I thought I would investigate this belief because it's a one that I have ingrained
Starting point is 00:23:27 And everyone's wanted to be like is that true and so this part seems to make it true What I'm looking at is the average PA for the top 10 by the by the auction calculator in value from last year So I'm just looking at the top 10 first baseman top 10 catchers top 10 second baseman the top 10 catchers, top 10 second baseman, the top 10 catchers had 582 plate appearances as an average, right? First base 653, second base 636, shortstop 645, third base 611, outfield 667. First of all, the light should go off a little bit that playing time is everything. It's like, oh wow, the top guys played a ton. Okay. But on top of that, you see a difference of 30 to almost 80 plate appearances between catchers in the
Starting point is 00:24:15 other positions. You look over at the batting average for those top 10 guys, catchers 258, first baseman 270, second baseman 270, shortstop's 276. They're the youngest, they're the stars, they're the keystone, right? Third base, 264, those are a little bit the old guys, right? And outfield, 277, so that's just sort of an idea of the top guys. So 258 on the catcher, maybe it doesn't hurt as much because you have, you
Starting point is 00:24:45 know, only 582 plate appearances. Whereas if you had, you know, so Cal Riley's projected for a 223 batting average, but I used 230 in my math. So I said, what if you had a 230 outfielder that gave you 700 plate appearances or six use 650. 650 plate appearances of a 230 outfit, it's got to hurt a lot more than 580 plate appearances of a 230 catcher, right? That seems unassailable. However, when you start actually doing the math, and what I did was I took all of the plate appearances you have from the rest of your, from your whole team, and I said, of the plate appearances you have from the rest of your, from your whole team. And I said, if I have a 230, 650 plate appearance player,
Starting point is 00:25:30 how much does it take from the rest of my team to get that average up to 258? Which is what we said is a target for 15 teams, right? And if I have a 230 catcher that has a 582 plate appearances, how much does it take to get that team up to 258? And guess what the answer is? The same, it's not the same. It's about the same.
Starting point is 00:25:51 It's about the same. You know why? Because it's only 580 out of the like 6,500 plate appearances you need for your whole team. Yeah. The difference is 2601 for the catcher and 2603 from the rest of your team for the outfielders. So batting average is batting average and if you can get it from catcher you are ahead and if you don't get it from catcher you are behind. So Cal rally will affect your batting average and therefore
Starting point is 00:26:24 it is a real negative. And that's why I have him in the next year as much as I like him. So I've thought about this concept before and it happens more in deeper leagues and in two catcher leagues. And it's me basically saying if I have a guy like Mike Zanino was one of these players for a long time, he's probably going to hit two fifteen. But he might pop 18 or 20 homers pretty good run production He's also not playing every day the way Raleigh does That's fine. I'm always okay with that because that to that 218 average over 400 at bats Isn't gonna hit nearly as hard as it does
Starting point is 00:27:00 Not as bad and I think the other way I've thought about this though is like I'd rather just not have bad players and I find that I can get enough quality at other positions late where having at least one of the catchers that we have in these first couple of tiers, possibly two out of the first three tiers, is a build that I've started to favor a lot more often. I love coming out of a draft. The first draft and hold we did in Arizona, I have Wilson Contreras and Will Smith. That's great.
Starting point is 00:27:31 And I'm like, I have a massive edge in playing time at catcher and skills at catcher with that combination. And I always feel that whatever that cost me, you know, a third SP a little earlier or whatever, there's a cost to it. It doesn't hurt me as much as trying to dig into tier five catchers and finding that next catcher and then spending time peppering fab at guys that aren't even playing that much trying to stream the position. Like it solves a lot of problems and I think it even
Starting point is 00:28:02 can give you a little bit of a boost in the batting average category if you end up pushing chips in on some of these top end guys that actually do hit for average over heavy, heavy volumes of playing time. So the other takeaway real quick is Cal Raleigh is not going to burn you that bad. You just don't put Cal Raleigh on a team that also has Kyle Schwaber and Max Muncie on it if you care about batting average, right? You can have one or two guys like this. You can't have three or four. So you just have to think about the targets you like,
Starting point is 00:28:27 how the other positions fit around it, and then decide just how much batting average leak you can take at this position. And if you're just cool with him costing you a chance at a fourth or fifth outfielder that does a lot of good things but hits 230, like how much do you care about Darten, Dalton Varshow, or Cedric Mullins,
Starting point is 00:28:47 or you know, the types of players that may, you know, not be available to you because you took Calrally. Maybe it doesn't matter, and there are certainly ways to do that. I just think that he makes you make decisions in ways that the guys before him don't. You know what I mean?
Starting point is 00:29:00 Like he's affecting the rest of your draft in a way that Adley Rutchman won't, you know, I do think out of the Rutchman will at least hit two 60 and hit like 15 to 17 homers, you know, I don't know that there's another step. That's why I was kind of degrading, you know, denigrating him, but I'm not, I think that that's the difference is you start to make decisions when you take rally for the rest of your team. The other thing that that sort of popped in my head when you were talking about
Starting point is 00:29:23 this is catcher is such a unique position in terms of the defensive value to the teams that they will make decisions about Catchers With like information that we don't have access to or that we don't have in the public sphere Like game-calling maybe something they decide that they really value out of this player. And then they're just gonna be like, we're gonna start Martin Maldonado all year because he's an amazing game caller. And we're like, well, we don't have any public stats on that.
Starting point is 00:29:54 So how am I supposed to know that Martin Maldonado is gonna start all year and you're not gonna play this other guy? Remember when we were talking earliest about Yanier Diaz, we said he has trouble with game calling, has some trouble, you know, even speaking the same language, like he has some language issues with some of his pitchers and like, and there's some people saying that he's not actually, you know, that great at prepping, you know, these are all almost like rumored level stuff. Right. Yeah, it's like where in the organization that really come from and unless you're there every day How do you know like how bad that problem actually is and how much of it is a fair bit of time a little early on? But it doesn't seem to now so it's like It's hard to it's hard to parse some of that so getting getting earlier
Starting point is 00:30:38 You're kidding you're getting out of those edge cases like we'll talk about this later, but the White Sox Catcher trio there's three guys there how are you gonna decide which one it's gonna start this year it has to do with options and timelines and who's the better this and who's the better that right like you know Corey Lee is the worst catcher of the three I'm sure of it you know you've got Kara Cuero the other Quero Edgar Cuero you've got Kyle Teal and you've got Corey Lee. Corey Lee is definitely the worst offensive catcher and his defensive numbers were pretty poor last year too. But how are they going to fold those other guys in?
Starting point is 00:31:11 And we're left sort of grasping at straws. So in my team, I wanted to have one of those De'Aner Diaz, Wilson Contreras, Salvador Perez, I chose Diaz. And the other thing that I've been doing is just trying to get an acceptable second one. So I haven't taken that leap that you've done to get two really good ones. And so when we get into these next tiers,
Starting point is 00:31:33 we'll start talking about, you know, acceptable second catchers, I think. What's up, Spotify? This is Holly. I remember this one time we were on tour. We didn't have any guitar picks and we didn't have time to go to the store, so we placed an order on Prime and it got there the next day, ready for the show.
Starting point is 00:31:49 Whatever you're into, it's on Prime. With TD Direct Investing, new and existing clients could get 1% cash back. Great! That's 1% closer to being part of the 1%. Maybe, but definitely 100% closer to getting 1% cash back with TD Direct Investing. Conditions apply, offer ends January 31st, 2025. Visit td.com slash DI offer to learn more. We've got one last thought on this tier.
Starting point is 00:32:25 I think Will Smith is actually undervalued by projections. I do see that the Dodgers, maybe because of their perennial deep playoff runs, are more careful with his playing time, but I don't think Austin Barnes is that much of a threat. Dalton Rushing is a little more of a threat, because I think Dalton Rushing is a good enough player to be fine in the lineup. It's going to be a question of how quickly he adjusts. The reason I like Will Smith, the lineup around him is phenomenal. I think he's still a top five catcher and it's still a lot of barrels to 10.4% barrel rate on a sub 20% strikeout rate. We talk all this all
Starting point is 00:32:58 the time in this series about lower strikeout rate players, maybe lagging a little bit in barrel rate. Will Smith doesn't, I just I'd see him as a really steady player He's awesome like if you're in a 10 team league and Everyone's like, you know got catchers like and Smith is on the board some other guys like he's like He's an awesome if you get him late, you know Catcher seven or eight off the board that could still easily be a top five guy I will have a lot of Will Smith at this kind of slightly
Starting point is 00:33:24 Discounted price. I think the categorical balance Will Smith at this kind of slightly discounted price. I think the categorical balance compared to someone like Raleigh makes him easier to work with. I'm with you on the Sal Perez age thing. I've been worried about Salvador Perez's cumulative workload just destroying his body and his production for half a decade thanks to the Ned Yost era. Just like, hey Sal, you're playing catcher every day.
Starting point is 00:33:45 Like he's, he has aged so much better than I ever could have imagined, an outlier among outliers really. I wonder if like the year off when he was hurt was like boonded. He did say that like coming back off of that, he changed his strategy a little bit to play it, so. Yeah, and you can see some things that are different
Starting point is 00:34:01 if you're a changer. Yeah. But it's another year where I'm like, I'll be a year too early as opposed to a year too late. He burns me every year, because I rarely have one of my teams. Especially because the pick is pretty high. Yeah, it's pretty high, pretty consistently.
Starting point is 00:34:14 But tier two, not a bad group of catchers, and you start to see a pretty clear difference once you move down to the next group. Going just outside the top 100 overall, between pick 100 and pick 150 we have Shay Lang Lears Logan Oh hoppy JT real Mudo Tyler Stevenson and Francisco Alvarez I still like this group. This is why I was saying before It doesn't have to be two from the first two tiers
Starting point is 00:34:39 It's probably two combined from the first three tiers in a to catcher league as far as my optimal strategy goes. I think you're still getting either a nice ceiling from guys like Langeliers and Alvarez, really good floor from a mid-career guy like Stevenson or in the case of JT Realmudo, you're getting a guy who was hurt last year and much like Sal Perez, being old, has that cumulative wear and tear concern, but still has really good foundational skills. JT Real Mudo to me
Starting point is 00:35:08 is like an older version of Will Smith now. I'm not expecting the bags to come back but if you told me he could be my second catcher in a 15-team league outside the top 100 overall I'm fine with that. I think it's gonna work like they don't have a good enough backup to take a lot of playing time away from Real Muto if he's not playing it's because he's hurt and that was the case last year So it was meniscus surgery Yeah, he turns 34 in March that kind of wear and tear is gonna like be more of a concern in these next couple of seasons But I think you're getting enough of a discount where it's a fair price Even if you're not pushing him up from where he's going
Starting point is 00:35:44 It's a fair price if you waited a bit at catcher one or if you wanna go a little early on catcher two. For what it's worth, like 50 to 60 played appearances less post season and 100 plus less playing time played appearance. I should've used fewer, I know, I like fewer. I know that fewer is dying. So fewer played appearances in the postseason and fewer played appearances
Starting point is 00:36:06 in the regular season for Rio Mudo. So maybe a little bit of a refresher for him. I do like him where he's going, you know, Langoliers, Alvarez and. Why does it one more? Oh, hoppy's in this group too. No, I'm talking about Langley as an Alvarez being an argument for not necessarily needing to get Raleigh where he's going to because I believe Langleyers and Alvarez have a similar package of skills.
Starting point is 00:36:32 Yeah, I agree. I think on the show sheet I wrote, big dumper without elite defense for Shea Langleyers. That's not to say he's a bad defender, but Cal Raleigh is a phenomenal defender. It's been a low average so far as part of the profile for Langelier's. He has improved his strikeout rate. He's a slightly better strikeout rate than Callaralli. Slightly worse batted ball quality, I guess. But he also maybe is improving his park effects.
Starting point is 00:36:55 That's the thing is like getting out of the Coliseum into Sacramento helps the entire lineup's offensive profiles a little bit for balls and play. At least that's our expectation going in. Projections say he belongs up a tier, so I think you're doing fine taking Shea Langelier's at his current draft day price. I definitely like him more than Ohapi,
Starting point is 00:37:13 in part because when I think about catchers, I think about who the backup is and how the backup functions on that roster. And I think they added Travis Darnoe to keep Logan Ohapi fresh. I mean, I think it's enough to at least bring him down to like second tier volume. And even though the quality of contact is pretty good,
Starting point is 00:37:31 we did see the strikeout rate jump up just below 30% last year. For Ohapi, that new strikeout rate actually fits his swinging strike rate better than his old strikeout rate did. Right, and we saw that 24.1% in the first real season he had with the angels when he debuted the year before that. That came in like 51 games, so it wasn't even
Starting point is 00:37:52 a full season's worth of played appearances. So I do think the higher 20% K rate might be more what you get. So there's a little bit of batting average risk and a little more playing time risk right now. I do like him a little bit. He has three notebooks. One notebook for his pitchers.
Starting point is 00:38:10 One notebook for opposing pitchers. And then one notebook about his own sort of mechanics and what he's thinking about when he's hitting. So a very rigorous process. You do like the way he's thinking about things. I like the way he thinks about it. And I know that he was trained by Jason Ochart when he was with the Phillies to add contact specifically.
Starting point is 00:38:30 And that was about sort of playing with contact point. And so I think he's a really cerebral guy and maybe that, and the projections themselves agree that the strikeout rate will come back down a little bit. And so there's still maybe another level, especially since he's 24. He's one of the few catchers on this list that has, you know, according to aging curves, improvement in front of him. And so I do actually like him.
Starting point is 00:38:59 I, you know, I know the auction calculator says 12th best. I think he's a perfectly acceptable last catcher idea in 12 teamers. And I think he's one of the last guys that I want as my first catcher in two catcher leagues and 15 team to catcher leagues. I think, you know, if I'm starting with Tyler Stevenson as my number one catcher in a 15 team league, you know, Tyler Stevenson is 28. He's doesn't have improvement in front of him. And in fact, you know, he has higher strikeout rates in his rear view mirror
Starting point is 00:39:30 that could come back, you know, and his bad ball quality is not really as good as Oh, hoppies and yes, his park is better, but you know, I don't think he's necessarily got better days in front of him. And so if you're starting with Tyler Stevenson, I think you are basically, you're closer to punting the position. You're closer to being like, I'm just taking cheap guys and just trying to not invest much in the position.
Starting point is 00:39:55 Yeah, I think especially in a one catcher league, that'd be true, in a two catcher league, he might just be more of a second catcher than a potential top 10 guy. I think what you see is pretty steady. Patience gives him a little boost in OVP leagues. I did notice that there's a pretty good split for him at home, a great American ballpark, as you'd expect.
Starting point is 00:40:15 Slugs 470 at home the last three years, 376 on the road. You have to wonder, is the first base in D.H. in depth chart there still soft enough to keep him in the lineup But he's not catching because they brought in Jose Trevino who's there for his glove. He's not there to hit He's there because he's a good catcher and can handle the staff really well So I didn't think there's a little bit of playing time risk for Stevenson belongs in this tier for me But he's last of the tier for sure. I just I would choose all four other guys over him hands down
Starting point is 00:40:43 I think there's two things that are challenging for me. One is that Francisco Alvarez is the cheapest of the bunch and I actually might like him straight up more than everybody else. Like Ohapi, he's young. He had the torn UCL in his left hand from falling while running the bases. Fluke injury cost him seven weeks last year.
Starting point is 00:41:02 But he popped 25 homers in 423 played appearances. I think he's going to strike out less than Raleigh. So I think he's less batting average risk. The quality of the contact is great. It's similar to Raleigh's. I know the barrel rate wasn't necessarily there in 2024, but I believe he might be able to barrel at that sort of 12 to 15% level.
Starting point is 00:41:21 With the max EV around 115, yeah. He's always been young for the level and the miners had smoked the ball coming through the Mets system. The defense has come along at a really high level. I mean, look at their depth chart. Luis Terenz and Luis De Los Santos are the backup. So if you're looking for the guy that could play a ton
Starting point is 00:41:38 and have massive skills growth, I think Alvarez ticks both of those boxes, whereas the Adrian Mudo gives you a little bit of risk, Ohapi having Darno there holds him back a little bit on max playing time like Shay Lang Alliers versus Alvarez is an ADP toss-up for me and there's a 40 to 50 pick gap between them and I like Shay too but I think I might like Alvarez even more the problem is like waiting just long enough to not take him too early and then not fall into the trap of having
Starting point is 00:42:05 to go later at catcher because i think it gets really pretty dicey after this group alvarez is really intriguing uh for a number of reasons um least of which is that he is projected by oopsie to be a top 10 catcher ninth with a 488 play appearance number. That doesn't make much sense to me given his age. I mean, Gavin Moreno 514, Shay Langelier is 506. So you know, I think you could give him without saying he's going to play DH and this and that, I think you can just give him, you know, hey, he's our young catcher that catches, you know, like played appearances. And if you do that, you can get him to five, 10, 520.
Starting point is 00:42:52 And if you do that, I think he's going to move past Riam Muto in these projections and get close to Languillier and Rutchman and have the, you know, the lowest, the the highest ADP of of those. I don't know. How do you say that? Those are or highest? Be the latest pick of the three, whatever. I always think ADP high would be early and low is late. That's how I, my brain is calibrated that way. If I'm getting it wrong, please let me know. I do want to give some love
Starting point is 00:43:17 to the 10th best projected catcher, Gabriel Moreno. And I guess that's in the next year, but he's projected to be the 10th best. And you know, one of the things that catchers are really bad at is not striking out. And Moreno is pretty decent when it comes to that, although he's not showing up. What is this?
Starting point is 00:43:41 This must be second half or something. Did he strike out more in the second half? He strike out more in general He's got a fourteen point eight. Did he was he hurt last year? He only played 97 games. Yeah, he was hurt Well, anyway, he has a fourteen point eight percent strike rate if you look at I've got this is second half up here But second half that would have been but that would have been Kavit Ruiz has the lowest, Miguel Amaya has second lowest, Alejandro Kirk, who I have as my second catcher, partially because he's a great defender and he doesn't strike out, is there. And then it would be Adley Rutchman and Gabriel Moreno next.
Starting point is 00:44:19 So having a good strikeout rate like that and there's a minimum level of batted ball quality separates you from Cabot Ruiz a little bit. And once you have a minimal level of batted ball quality and the ability to strike out, you're probably not going to have a bad batting average. You're probably going to have a better than better batting average than the rest of the catchers. And so that's my, my, my speech for Gabriel Moreno is good defense, good enough, bad ball quality and great strikeout
Starting point is 00:44:46 rate. He's everything that I wanted Kbert Ruiz to be. Yeah, I think just the career OBP, it's 347 for Moreno right now, and that's being really young for a big league catcher. He's going to turn 25 next month in February. So it's like he could still get better if he doesn't because of his glove he plays a lot so you max out his playing time and maybe it's 9 to 11 homers with okay run production but a batting average that actually
Starting point is 00:45:13 helps you that tends to work out alright I do think of this trio in this group which also includes Austin Wells and Kavett Ruiz I do like Moreno the most but I don't know. Like, we can be waiting longer. Sometimes catcher's bats take a little longer to actually come through. And the injuries from Moreno is two different injuries that cost him time.
Starting point is 00:45:33 There's looking at the roto-wire outlook just a moment ago. It's a sprained thumb and then an adductor strain. End of the season looked pretty good and I think the OBP skills are solid. So it's kind of like a Instead of Tyler Stevenson, I'd rather just have Moreno a little cheaper. That's probably the way I look at him He's not necessarily a target But I do think there's a world in which the bigger power guys that I like a little bit more
Starting point is 00:45:57 Go or maybe I was trying to wait too long on Francisco Alvarez and the tier gets wiped out and now I gotta have a backup plan Moreno would at least be on the backup plan list even if he's not necessarily a must have or like my favorite sleeper at the position because that's Alvarez. Alvarez, he's not even a sleeper, he's just the guy that I really wanna have on my roster if I can as long as anything close to that current price holds up. What do you think of Austin Wells? We talked a lot about him in the playoff shows and down the stretch last year
Starting point is 00:46:22 because he was in a prominent spot for the Yankees lineup at various points last year. He hit cleanup a good bit. He's got a career 9.9% barrel rate through about 500 played appearances. Defense has come along really well and I mentioned Jose Trevino before he's gone. He's in Cincinnati now so this could be a pretty high volume opportunity for Austin Wells as a left-handed power bat especially that fits really well in Yankee Stadium. Do you think we get another step forward from Wells this year? I think just getting a full season will be great because Austin Wells in the second half
Starting point is 00:46:57 last year had the sixth best barrel right behind Logan Ohapi, Cal Raleigh, Yasmany Grandal, but in very small, 107 plate appearances. So you could leave him out. William Contreras, Salvador Perez. And in that top 10 for barrel rate in the second half, he had the second best strikeout rate. So if you kind of look across the board, he looks like a Sal Perez with walks.
Starting point is 00:47:26 That's a good profile. Sal Perez with walks. Sounds good without walks, so. Yeah, so I mean, I really like Austin Wells, and I like him so much more than Kavett Ruiz, and that is who you have in this tier, huh? That must be a projections thing. I mean, he just really hasn't done it yet.
Starting point is 00:47:44 Austin Wells has shown us in game power, has shown us process power, great barrel rates, great strikeout rates. I mean, he's a breakout candidate. And in fact, in some ways I like him better than Francisco Alvarez, because he doesn't have that sort of, how much is he gonna strike out component to him?
Starting point is 00:48:04 How dare you, sir? No disagreement is fine. Healthy. Kaber Ruiz is in this group by ADP. I think the reason he's there, if you run Steamer instead of oopsie into the auction calculator, Kaber Ruiz comes out as the 13th catcher. And that kind of puts the extra weight on there. And look, they signed an extension. They don't have exciting backups in D.C. Oh, he's going to play.
Starting point is 00:48:24 The lineup's getting better, but he's been a frustrating player for us for a long time because we've always wondered if the quality of contact would ever improve to the point of being even close to average and he doesn't strike out, so I know that drags down the hard-hitting barrel, but it's more than it should. Yeah, it's 1,500 plate appearances now
Starting point is 00:48:41 with a 4% barrel rate and really, a lot of that's floated in 2023 He looks like a guy who's gonna barrel 3% of the time. It's just it's not gonna be You know, I'm surprised there's 15 homer projections for him. Oops. He has a 12 and I Wouldn't be surprised. We'd like hit 11 homers this year and stole one bag So I just think it's a pretty empty pretty empty line and if you look at the auction calculator around him, Alejandro Kirk is similar in the amount of contact he makes,
Starting point is 00:49:12 but his career bear rate is 6.8%. He had a 6.7 last year. And the projections are lighter for him on power, and that doesn't make sense to me. I think the projections on Kirk's playing time are kind of off in my estimation too. He's easily the best catcher there. Yeah, like they've just cleaned it up. The depth chart was crowded for a long time but over the years it's just changed, right?
Starting point is 00:49:36 Danny Jansons is gone. He's the one that remains. Yeah. Tyler Heineman is, I think, a pretty clear backup. Am I missing anything? He's 33. Like why would Tyler Heinemann take more than the occasional start? So I think Kirk could be a monster playing time-wise.
Starting point is 00:49:52 The top guy on DH right now is Will Wagner, who's 26 and he did have a 125 WRC plus last year, but oops, he has a 93 WRC plus for him going forward and he profiles a little bit. I thought he was more of a kind of a utility guy for them I mean, he's played all over the diamond for Houston And I don't think that's somebody you necessarily throw in a DH now Springer could go there because he's he's old as dirt and Wagner and other guys can can play the outfield but you know if you actually think about I need to do this right now
Starting point is 00:50:21 I'm gonna do this right now. Oopsie, Blue Jays, I'm just looking at the projections for the Blue Jays and I'm sorting by WRC Plus. And Alejandro Kirk is the third best bat on the Toronto Blue Jays. Both systems like him, I mean he's got basically the same projection from Steamer and Oopsie. Like there's projections agreement already about what he is. I give him some DH and that 436 plate appearance
Starting point is 00:50:44 and it seemed low So I was pretty happy to get him really late. I got him just as an example for people I got him in the 20th round of my draft and hold Yeah, it's strange to think that when he came in the questions were like is he a good enough catcher to catch a lot? And now he's a he's grading out as a really good defensive catcher, really each of the last three seasons
Starting point is 00:51:09 he's been at least good, but the last two he's been great. And it was all like bat forward stuff before. It was like, oh, he might just DH, he hits the ball so hard. He said back to back seasons, Alejandro Kirk has had a sub 360 slugging percentage. It's weird, but now I think, let's Frankenstein this together. Let's say it keeps keeps the defensive improvements and he gets back to hitting the ball much like he did in 2022 and
Starting point is 00:51:32 that ends up being a huge value where he's going because Alejandro Kirk isn't even in tier 5. Tier 5 is a group of players going between pick 200 and 250 that includes Sean Murphy, Yvonne Herrera, Connor Wong, Ryan Jeffers, and Joey Bart. Why would you take K-Bart Ruiz ahead of these guys if Alejandro Kirk is there 100 picks later? Why would you take Joey Bart over Alejandro Kirk? There are three Hazels even like upset about this. I want more treats. Why are you talking about the pirates? I kind of have a favorite
Starting point is 00:52:07 in here. Who do you like? You think you could pick my favorite? You probably like Herrera. No, that's my second favorite. Sean Murphy. Okay, well, Sean Murphy would have been a safe answer. Yeah, Sean Murphy in the second half was just behind Austin Wells and barrels and I know he hit 177 along with it and struck out 25.5% of the time, but the barrels coming back from Murphy says to me that there's a chance that, you know, he's getting healthy. I know he's 30, but he's not 35. I mean, we're talking about Sal Perez and stuff. So the projections for 233 and 16 to 19 homers the projections
Starting point is 00:52:46 From oopsie are better. So the bat speed is there you can see his max TV is good barrel rates in the past were higher So having a second half barrel rate that looked a little bit more like his barrel rates in the past So I think he's just getting he just basically getting over injury and he might return to that 250-20 homer level that he was at just in 2023. So I like Sean Murphy a lot actually where he's going. I had a difficult discussion with myself where I had him for like 10 bucks in auto new and a five by five auto new and none of the projections say he's worth keeping but I was like, he
Starting point is 00:53:23 might go for closest in the auction, he might be worth something like this next year, because there's definitely bounce back potential for Sean Murphy. I know the prospect community is pretty optimistic about Drake Baldwin, what he brings as a hitter. It doesn't look like there's a whole lot for him to learn at AAA,
Starting point is 00:53:38 so you could at least see Baldwin working as a backup. Murphy's got a big contract. We've seen Atlanta go through seasons. This is one of the spots where they don't overplay guys. They actually share the work. Let me mention William Contreras, his brief time there a little earlier. Maybe they can coexist and both be really good.
Starting point is 00:53:55 And maybe that's a good thing for Sean Murphy at a certain point. The balance between playing too much as a catcher and playing too little is a fine line to walk. And I just wonder if Murphy's kind of in that sweet spot age-wise where Baldwin's presence would actually kind of level out where the per game numbers would be really good they'd pick their spots really carefully with them when they do sit them and it could be the best of all worlds if even if he's not going to be a workhorse again
Starting point is 00:54:21 even if Sean Murphy's not going to clock in with top five or even top 10 plate appearances at the position. I think you're right to still like his skills, because I think Murphy looks like a pretty good bargain in this range. Do you think Ivan Herrera's the clear starter over Pedro Pahe's? Do you think it's more of a time share?
Starting point is 00:54:36 Because Herrera's skills, which we talked about a little bit this winter, are very interesting. So it comes down to just how you think the Cardinals are gonna divvy up the playing time. Yeah, I think there's just demonstrated excellence in the last two seasons combined. Herrera is at a 126 WRC plus to Pedro Páez's 83. And there are some things that you can like for Páez under the under the hood in terms of, you know, he's hit the ball interesting hard, like a little bit hard, and he doesn't strike out that much. But everything that he does, Ivan Herrera does better, honestly. Strikeout rate goes to Ivan Herrera. Max EV goes to Ivan Herrera by almost three miles
Starting point is 00:55:17 an hour. Average EV to Ivan Herrera by almost a mile an hour. Barrel rate almost twice as many to Von Herrera hard hit 44 to 40%. So I just think it would take, you know, a real assessment of the defense that I haven't seen yet to say that Pedro Páez is going to start now. Maybe I'm missing something. And in St. Louis, they've been talking about how much better Pedro is defensively. That could affect things. They did, you know, they have famously have a Hall
Starting point is 00:55:45 of Famer, Yaddi Molina, that was there for more for defense than for his offense. So, and they almost ran Wilson Contreras out of town for his defense. So if I'm missing something there, you know, please tell me in the discord or somewhere. But just in terms of defensive metrics that I can look at, I don't see a difference. Yeah. Remember the time the Cardinals signed Wilson Contreras to a five-year deal in Memorial Day weekend of year one? He wasn't a catcher anymore?
Starting point is 00:56:12 Yeah, and it's fine. It's so silly, it's fine. He can be a good first baseman on that deal and still make it worth it. But yeah, that was a Paul Goldschmidt overlap. So that wasn't an option. And then I think even DH was a little crowded. Anyway, just a fun time where that I was like,
Starting point is 00:56:31 how does this get out this early? I don't like Wong and Bart just kind of across the board. I was looking at problems that contenders had and I was really surprised at first to see that the Red Sox had problems at catcher and short but when I investigated a little bit further I kind of understood it. Wong is one of the worst framers in the sport and not a great blocker so he's a pretty
Starting point is 00:56:56 bad defensive catcher and then last year he had a sort of offensive explosion that I don't think really lines up with his metrics. A real improvement in strikeout rate, despite a mediocre swinging strike rate. So, and a long history of striking out more. So I think the strikeout rates going to go right back up and then, you know, a near league average, a home runner or sort of isolated power, despite a 6% barrel rate and a one Oh nine max CB. And then this like kind of eight steel level, which is like non-zero steels and you could,
Starting point is 00:57:29 you know, you could say that that's a boon, but you know, at 28 years old, surprising age, it's hard to say that he's going to keep continuing to do that. And really eight steels could go either way. You know, you could do it again, or he could go down to three. I hesitate to give him, you know, all of his steals he's projected for. I hesitate to give him the two 50 average he's projected for, because I think there's a chance that strikeout rate goes up to 27, 28. So, you know, just generally, I'm not a big fan of this profile.
Starting point is 00:57:57 And when you look at things like war and you say, oh my gosh, projected war, and you say, oh, this is a problem. And you have people talking about it in Boston, you realize that maybe he's not considered sort of the catcher of the future with the big capital C and the capital F. Even with Kyle Teal getting traded to the White Sox, though, or you just look at this and go,
Starting point is 00:58:18 maybe there's one more year of Wong being most of the guy. I think they brought in Carlos Narvaez in a small trade. He hasn't played in the big leagues other than like six games with the Yankees. It's kind of more like a better defensive guy. Yeah, but he's he's not good enough offensively to just give him the job probably. Right. Like you did some interesting things at AAA, but also like nothing guaranteed as far as like being an upgrade over Connor Wong. So I think Wong is just sort of OK, kind of in a cheaper
Starting point is 00:58:43 cable, we sort of way, like kind of in the cheaper Caper Ruiz sort of way, probably the guy again for another year, but what he did last season is probably not sustainable to a full level. It's gonna be a little bit of a step back from him. Ryan Jeffers goes in this tier, did pretty well with 465 plate appearances, even though he shares the role.
Starting point is 00:59:00 I was just wondering if the twins are really trying to keep the cost down, if they find a taker for Christian Vasquez and even just a portion of his salary. Maybe Jeffers has a path to even larger role but I wouldn't project him for more until that happens. Didpop 21 homers came with a low average which isn't usually part of the equation. It also leads to a question though like when you play in a timeshare and you get the increased role you might not be as effective right because in a timeshare you're getting spotted in the matchups that make the most sense as a three quarters share playing time guy maybe you had to deal with some more tough
Starting point is 00:59:34 matchups to play therefore the numbers come down a little bit I liked Ryan Jeffers a lot prior to last season I think he's fine as a catcher too because he's gonna give you some cheap power even if he is sharing the job the same way he did last year you know he is, because he's gonna give you some cheap power, even if he is sharing the job the same way he did last year. You know, he is 27. There is a chance that you can Frankenstein a better year than he's ever had, where you take, you know,
Starting point is 00:59:54 this past season's 20% strikeout rate, which I think honestly looks okay next to some of his swing strike rates. He's had 9% swing strike rates last year, at 10.6%, like, that's a pretty decent swing strike rate. So, you know, let's give him, you know, like a 21, 22% strike rate that's still better than the average would be one of the best among catchers and then give him some of his old barrel relates.
Starting point is 01:00:15 Last year was an 8.3% barrel rate where he had 11s and 12s and 14s before. So, you know, you could give him some of those things together and, you know, looking at 27, given he's a catcher, a 27, 28 year old, that's, that's totally in the peak range. So there is a chance here where you kind of get a 260, 22, like, like a Will Smith light, honestly. So he's another guy I like in this tier. One thing I would point out though with Ryan Jeffers and even with most of his career sharing the role prior to last season, he crushes lefties.
Starting point is 01:00:52 133 WRC plus, career 258, 340, 492 line against lefties. A 95 against same-handed pitching with a 27% K rate. So 218, 296, 398, 398 to 95 WRC plus against righties so long long term there could be some concerns there but they don't seem like they've got the next long-term starter knocking on the door even though they were the team that ended up getting Diego Cartaya I think his shortcomings were pretty well documented after the Dodgers sent him packing in the last couple of weeks by the way behind the scenes, I think this is now three episodes in a row.
Starting point is 01:01:27 The producer, Brian, has written the cardinal way in the private chat. I think he's trolling you. He is, and I appreciate Brian Smith for producing this episode and every episode he produced. And I will continue to ignore it. What you guys don't know. You'll get him back somehow.
Starting point is 01:01:45 I think I've been able to keep my left hand off camera, which is helpful because I have a bag of dog treats that people can't see on YouTube. My dog wants to go outside again. She went outside before the show. She's fine, she's taken care of. But the treats, every minute or two, I have to grab another treat and hold it,
Starting point is 01:02:04 give her a couple pets, and then throw the treat under the bed. And she runs over and eats the treat and she comes back for another one. We have about 30 more minutes of show to go. I've got plenty of treats, I'm not gonna run out. But it's calming me down. Like petting, I see the cardinal way on the screen
Starting point is 01:02:18 and I just give her a couple pets on the ear and I'm good. It's not rattling me today. So if Hazel's not in the room, then yeah, it'll bring up the blood pressure. I should have the Apple watch or something on and look, every time I read the cardinal way, I bet it goes up a little bit.
Starting point is 01:02:33 It's gotta be bad, bad for my health. Joey Bart deserves a little bit of a discussion. He did improve his swing strike rate. So his strikeout rate improvements may be real. He did get it down 10.5%. I just said improvements may be real. He did get it down 10.5%. I just said that was pretty good. He has had way worse in the past. He had his first year of full like with like big playing time in San Francisco, he had 16.9% swinging strike rate. So, you know, that's a really big difference. So if he, you know, reduces
Starting point is 01:03:01 his batter ball quality a little bit, reduces his pull rate a little bit, and improves his strikeout rate and has something like he did last year. He will be the obvious lone catcher there. I do want to point out though that Pittsburgh has Henry Davis, Andy Rodriguez, and Jason DeLay. The only reason I mention Jason DeLay is because he is similar to Bart as in someone they sort of picked up from another organization. And I do think that they're still even as much as teams try to look at every player
Starting point is 01:03:32 and see their range of outcomes and not bring any baggage to it. You are going to on some level remember Andy Rodriguez coming up through the system and know that if Andy Rodriguez becomes a full-time starter in the big leagues and is an above average bat, he will be the first bat, above average bat that you've developed in your system. The first one. Yeah, I'm talking about like this front office.
Starting point is 01:03:58 Yeah, it's tough, man. It's a tough road. Don't you think like Henry Davis and Andy Rodriguez get a chance? 100%. Joey Bart is the new monkey in the monkey sphere. He's there, and he's good, but he's the newest guy. So if he struggles, if he strikes out 30% of the time
Starting point is 01:04:19 in spring training, and Andy's looking good, or Henry Davis is hitting the snot out of the ball. Let me put it this way, there's enough risk that Joey Bart is not the number one catcher that he should not go here. Right, the fact that Alejandro Kirk, we talked about earlier, goes the next tier is shocking. The best guess that I have for how this is gonna work.
Starting point is 01:04:38 Could Billy Cooks catch? Billy Cook doesn't catch, doesn't catch. I don't know how he impacts the situation of them to say because Billy Cook's an outfielder first baseman by designation that he does impact the situation in a weird way because Billy Cook impacts everything in fantasy baseball we're not gonna give Joey Bart first base at bat. No, but Henry Davis is probably more of an outfielder than a catcher. And you know, just figuring out how all the pieces fit other spots is sort of key.
Starting point is 01:05:13 I think you give players like Davis and Rodriguez long opportunities because your supporting cast is non-existent or written in pencil. Right? because your supporting cast is non-existent or written in pencil. Right, so you could have the most optimistic views of O'Neill Cruz, and Bryan Reynolds, Nick Gonzalez, Kebrian Hayes, and Spencer Horowitz, that's five. You need four more guys that can hit
Starting point is 01:05:37 at least close to average levels. So there's a world, and I'm sure this is a possibility, I don't know how likely it is, but there is a world in which Bart Davis and Andy Rodriguez could actually all be in the starting lineup together Andy Rodriguez I think was gonna play some second base before They're gonna play him that he's kind of interested in playing all over but he's good enough to catch there's a world in which Andy Rodriguez is
Starting point is 01:06:01 The starting catcher against righties Bart is the starter against lefties. Then Rodriguez plays other positions when Bart's starting. And Henry Davis is in the corner, and if he just hits, he's gonna play, and if he doesn't, he's not. I took Davis as my third catcher in this league, because I got behind it a little bit. But I was happy that I got Kirk as my second.
Starting point is 01:06:19 And these leagues, you're always plugging holes. So I just thought Henry Davis, there is playing, I agree with you, we talked about this a little bit and I think there's some playing time possibility. But it also does reduce maybe the chance that any one of them gets 490 play appearances. Yeah, I guess it does if, unless that it would elsewhere
Starting point is 01:06:41 because of their willingness to play those guys out of position which we've already seen. And their need, their flattened need for more hitters. They can co-ex, better than most situations we look at three possible catchers, including Colorado. I mean, the Rocky situation goes beyond tier six. We'll get there in a second.
Starting point is 01:07:00 But right, it's the Hunter Goodman situation because they've got Jacob Stallings, who they brought back, veteran, good glove, had a nice season there last year, but he's on the wrong side of 35 now, so how long is that going to last? Drew Romo, a guy that the organization has a lot invested in, he could be the primary catcher.
Starting point is 01:07:20 And then there's Goodman, who does amazing things power wise in the minors has done amazing things power wise in the minors and is listed at in the LF RF and first base trees over at Fangrass yeah right like any any number of things possible there and Goodman did it power wise just with a low average in half a season with the Rockies last year hits the ball hard barrels it up but has strikeout concerns. I guess what I'm saying is when you're looking for the catchers who might not catch that
Starting point is 01:07:50 have big power and you're thinking about Goodman because he plays in Colorado and he's a little younger than some of the other guys that they are trying to fit into various corners of that depth chart, I'm okay with Goodman as a flyer. If I'm okay with Goodman as a flyer, I should be really excited about Henry Davis later because Henry Davis also beats up on pitching in the upper levels of the minor leagues. If you gave Henry Davis full seasons at double-A and triple-A, I bet they'd look a lot like Hunter Goodman's power output. So I think injuries have complicated things a little bit for Henry Davis and I'd realize that where he was drafted makes him someone that we probably have higher expectations for, unfair expectations for,
Starting point is 01:08:30 but if you trust upper level production there's still something to like there. That's all I have on Davis as still maybe being useful. Pulling it back into the order of things though, this group's not that bad. Tier 6 pick 250 to 300, we talked about Kirk before. We like him. Bo Nailer has at least some things you could talk yourself into. I think he's by projection like Conor Wong with a lower average but I trust Nailer's scouting reports and skills a lot more than Wong so I'd rather draft Bo Nailer than Conor Wong straight up and getting a discount makes me more excited about Naylor. He's firmly a catcher too.
Starting point is 01:09:07 He's a watchless guy in a league where you only have to start one catcher. Younger than Wong, so there's a chance of improvement. The chance of improvement is higher, I believe. Absolutely, I think he's gonna start getting to some more power. I think that's a possibility. He runs a little bit, so there's still things
Starting point is 01:09:21 to like about Bo Naylor. Patrick Bailey, man, he's such a good defender. The only concern I'm starting to have with Bailey is it's multiple concussions now, I think, that have cost him time. So there's the long-term health questions, right? It's just avoiding the foul tips and the things that cause you to miss a lot of time,
Starting point is 01:09:38 and each concussion is just, to me, it's more of a problem than the last one, and the cumulative effects of that are, they go beyond your baseball career. If you could tell me that Patrick Bailey is gonna stay healthy I think he could actually be among the league leaders in playing time behind the plate and I think we saw a little bit of growth from him as a hitter too so I actually like Bailey just fine as a catcher too. If I'm doing the thing where I got one really good catcher and I end up having
Starting point is 01:10:02 to wait until like these late rounds to get a catcher and I end up having to wait until these late rounds to get a catcher too, I actually think Bailey does just enough to at least meet the level we need as a probably fringe top 20 guy at the position. Yeah, yeah. And what I like with Baylor, Kirk, and Naylor that is not true of Heim is that I think they're very clearly the first catchers and if they're healthy they play and that's their deal. Jonah Haim is kind of interesting because in some ways he's offensively superior to Kyle Higashoka who they brought in and Fangrass has it like basically a
Starting point is 01:10:39 50-50 split because it's really hard to figure out I think on some level it's hard to figure out who Jonah Haim is going to be but in general you level it's hard to figure out who Jonah Haim's gonna be. But in general you can say you give strikeout rate to Jonah Haim over Higa Ashoka, that's been demonstrated over their whole careers. And though you give barrel rate to Higa Ashoka over Haim, there have been years where, you know, like 2023, Haim got to an 8%, that's not bad.
Starting point is 01:11:02 And in terms of max EVs, you know, there have been years where Haim has been better than Higuyoshoca. So there is some bad speed in there for Haim, and I think with that strikeout rate, his offensive ceiling might actually be better than Higuyoshoca's. And then his defensive numbers are through the roof, I mean, before last year. And what I'd heard even in Oakland was that people loved throwing to him. The game calling, yeah. And so you have that, but that's also been listed
Starting point is 01:11:32 as a positive figure of Shoka, you know? So I think this is just a really, really tough one to figure out. I think there could be a guy who gets to 500 plate appearances and as a decent second catcher I just not exactly sure who which was I think it probably would ride more on injury and they're gonna come closer to an even split Maybe you'll see the occasional DH opportunity for you guys. She okay where they're both in the lineup together
Starting point is 01:11:57 That's probably not the default thing they want to do but something they would do once in a while and yeah It's gonna come down to health So I think the the things I said about Patrick Bailey are largely true about Heim. You mentioned the slip in defense. Except for a year, like that last, the bad last year basically. They were good comps until Higashiyoka got there
Starting point is 01:12:15 and now I think I clearly prefer Bailey and Heim's probably someone I'm just stepping away from because there's a few late late options that might make a little bit more sense. Kinds of switch hitter which is just like, you know you're kind of like, oh man that could work. A switch hitting catcher who's shown, I mean jeez he's driven 95 runs, 18 homers
Starting point is 01:12:34 just over a year ago now with like good underlying numbers too. I was surprised when they were the team that spent the money on Kyle Higashioka, not because he's bad, because it seems like money's a little tight for them right now, and that didn't seem like as much of a need as, you know, one more high quality reliever,
Starting point is 01:12:49 but that was just my opinion from the outside. We made some cases for some late guys that we like, and Henry Davis and maybe Hunter Goodman. I've made cases for Luis Camposano in the past, but it is a little bit contingent on them not doing anything more in San Diego to address the catcher position. Yasimani Grandal is still out there and it's not impossible to see them signing him and
Starting point is 01:13:14 Grandal actually being kind of the bulk starter, at least a 50-50 split that kind of ruins both of their values. But Luis Camposano does make good contact and hits the ball super hard. He has not turned it into barrels He has not really turned it into great on field success but right now he's probably the starting catcher and There is some portion of breakout potential 10 15 percent breakout potential Which is more than you can say for a lot of the older guys down there I think Danny Jansen going to Tampa Bay where he's a pull fly ball guy.
Starting point is 01:13:49 They love pull fly ball guys. He's coming off of one of his worst years, but he did have a three year stretch of kind of like a 230 batting average and 15 homers every year. He's a great model league catcher, I think, and could rise to second catcher level in 15 teamers, especially if they kind of, you know, if there's a good marriage between Park and Player, I don't actually know what it looks like down the line there.
Starting point is 01:14:12 It would have been better for him in the trop if he could pull it down the line a la Paredes, but I do think it's an okay offensive Park and counter the fact that the trop used to make people pitch her stuff better. There's a stuff plus park factor there. So, you know, it may be a decent year for Danny to get Danny Jansen. It will be cheap.
Starting point is 01:14:31 The chance he plays more than ever. I mean, think about that crowded situation. We were just talking about in Toronto. Like he was one of the guys that was there with Alejandro Kirk. And I think the, the max we ever saw was a 384 plate appearance season way back in 2019. It wasn't great. He hit 207 with a 279 OBP, did pop 13 homers, but I think he's become a better hitter over
Starting point is 01:14:51 time because that was his first full season in the big leagues. I wonder if the Rays saw him and said, we can give this guy 450 plate appearances and maybe he'll quietly hit 20 homers. Like I do think Danny Jansen is a little bit of an oatmeal-y sleeper type where he's going at this point. I'd take him over Heim. I think he's going to play just as much as Jonah Heim and maybe even a little more because of the factors we just talked about. What about the Cubs situation? I think that's one of the more interesting ones that we haven't even brought up at any point yet because you've got Miguel Amaya who did some pretty interesting
Starting point is 01:15:20 things in the second half last year, Carson Kelly, the veteran backup they brought in, and then a prospect that we saw in the fall league in Moises Ballesteros. Do you see anybody in that trio that you like as a clear-cut number one catcher for the Cubs who will provide enough value for us this year to break through at least in two catcher leagues even if we don't necessarily see a top 10 player at the position within that group. Things tend to go slowly for young catchers. We know that their debut date is on average later than it is for other positions.
Starting point is 01:15:53 Their offensive peak can be a year later than other positions. And so Miguel Amaya at 25, I think there's probably still enough in terms of organizational momentum to feel like this is our catcher of the future. He has been showing strides.
Starting point is 01:16:09 He has improved his strikeout rate greatly. He has showed good top end exit VELOs, just needs to show a little bit more in game power. And his offensive projection is better than Carson Kelly's and he's going to know all the pitchers. So he's going to have an advantage in the spring in terms of all the sort of incumbent Cubs pitchers, he's going to have a relationship with them. So I think Miguel Amaya is pretty much the clear favorite. Carson Kelly is going to slide into a sort of a backup portion of his career.
Starting point is 01:16:41 Even though he's kind of a high endend backup at this point at 30. I think that those those offensive projections are only gonna go down going forward and he'll be the sort of you know oops he has an 89 WRC projection for him and I think you know next year it'll be like a 78 and he'll be firmly ensconced as a backup. They signed him to a two year deal. So I think this is Moises Ballesteros is, you know, uh, real timeline is sometime next year. I mean, if you do want him to catch, you can keep him in triple a longer than you would just a bat of his quality.
Starting point is 01:17:18 And so either we'll find that he's playing other positions this year, and that increases his timeline and gets them to the major leagues quicker or he's staying at catcher and Really? He's a 2026 kind of guy. Yeah 2026 I've got him in auto new as a possible cheap keeper And I think I'm throwing balesteros back just because it's a little too crowded Amaya is good enough and Kelly's not not useless as a part-time guy at least on the small side of a platoon I know I think Amaya's also a righty, but that's how Kelly has traditionally been used.
Starting point is 01:17:49 He starts against lefties, because he crushes them. So part of a timeshare there. I think they just added Martin Maldonado in San Diego. I don't think that really takes a lot of value away from Camposano. It's still a pretty wide open depth chart, especially for guys that can hit. Although they could just go defense first, you know.
Starting point is 01:18:04 It's a possibility. Because his defense is so bad. But you know, that does give him a spring to kind of be like, hey, if I'm hot, you know, I can get this job back. I know some people like Adrian Del Castillo hit for a lot of power at triple A, or you know, hits for power really everywhere
Starting point is 01:18:17 in that Arizona system. But Moreno is ensconced, dude. Right, and I don't know if there's enough time at other spots that would really make him useful I think it would take a Moreno injury for Del Castillo to be a redraft target for me Dalton rushing probably more of like a backup on a good team So more of an NL only keeper dynasty sort of play for me for the time being because I can't really see how else he would Play you talked about Davis and De Los Santos in Miami and the first base opportunity
Starting point is 01:18:42 You talked about Davison De Los Santos in Miami and the first base opportunity. Augustin Ramirez also there, a catcher option for them. I mean, Nick Fortes is just a guy. Do you think Ramirez could actually be a little bit of a steeper here? Fortes does have plus bat speed, but he has not turned it into anything. So yeah, I think he's just a guy.
Starting point is 01:18:57 Yeah, there could be something there. I think it's more exciting to talk about the White Sox trio because if Kyle Teal makes it, he has, you know, I think the offensive upside to really, to really contribute. But I don't mind Edgar Guerrero either because Guerrero like, you know, strikes out less than Teal and could give you, you know, just enough power and better strikeout rates. So he could be interesting offensively too, but they also have the incumbent Corey Lee.
Starting point is 01:19:27 Carroll was on the taxi squad last year, late last year. He's been with the organization longer. Teal is a year older and he comes in as the big part of a big deal. Like on some level there may be the, hey, I know we traded Garrett Crochet, but this is what we got out of it, you know? And so I guess I give Teal the nudge for, you know,
Starting point is 01:19:56 if one of the two is going to be the starting catcher for the White Sox by July, it's Teal. So that's interesting enough to make him pick up in some leagues. I think the timeline on those guys is so similar because they've got a partial season at AAA each and if you're at the White Sox, you could develop them both simultaneously.
Starting point is 01:20:19 Corey Lee has options, you can option him out. But you can't, you can't. I mean, someone has to be a triple A, and somebody has to be in the major leagues. D.H. somebody. Who are you D.H.ing if you're the White Sox? Why not just have both catchers up, have them learning with your big league coaches,
Starting point is 01:20:32 working with your staff. So have all three catchers in the major leagues? No, option Corey Lee. Just have Carol and Teal up. Interesting. That's what I would do, and play them both in the lineup. I would treat this very differently than they will. Corey Lee and Teal in the
Starting point is 01:20:48 big leagues and Carrero starting catching every day. They got Matt Dice on the depth chart too to muddy things up even further. Thighs of steel. Are you looking for any bounce back out of Mitch Garver? Catch your elbow. I was staring a hole into him for this draft that I'm in and I don't know he's Yes, but they've got two guys there at DH in Mitch Hanniger and him Both of them are projected to bounce back both are in their 30s both, you know, and you have this like Stupid thing with Garver. He's good every other year Throw that in the mix. Bank on that.
Starting point is 01:21:29 But the strikeout rate increase in Seattle, I don't know if Garver's just going to figure that out in his second year in Seattle at 34 years old. So if he's going to strike out 30% of the time, then he's just a pretty boring bat. And then you'd be buying him for playing time, but he's also vying for playing time with Mitch Hanniger at DH. So it's not even clear that he would like become the overall DH. I mean, he got 430 play defense last year with an 88 WRC plus. Like he really has to make his case deep and maybe make this roster.
Starting point is 01:22:03 Why'd Mitch Hanniger? Why is Mitch Hanniger still there? Mitch Hanniger's 34 now. You want to trade him to get the Robbie Ray money off the books? Your team, man, like what? They've got, I have a feeling they have this like one hard cap ass number and everything has to like be under that and you and that informs all their moves. I think you're at the point with Hanegger and Garver where you could just release either one or both
Starting point is 01:22:31 if you don't want them on your roster anymore and they could probably end up with part-time roles somewhere else and I think with a reset at a different park but we might in deep enough leagues be interested in both of them again but I don't like them coexisting trying to share that spot as the DH in Seattle. David Fry is coming off of elbow surgery, so his timetable makes it a little complicated otherwise.
Starting point is 01:22:52 I couldn't even keep him in auto new as like a $3 guy, just because, you know, I'm gonna have this guy sitting on my roster for like two months at least, maybe two and a half months doing nothing, and I'm gonna need the money in free agency. At point. I'm gonna drop fry to get that buck back in free agency and it's a really hard case to kind of make to nurse a guy through two months of nothing. Yeah that's probably not the way you want to handle
Starting point is 01:23:18 it in most situations like it's super late in a draft and hold you could do okay but I'm not really excited about it even though what he was doing last year was pretty fun. Last situation before we get to a few prospects, Jake Rogers, I was checking in with the Discord, asking people to watch the Tigers every day, like what's your vibe on Rogers versus Dingler, knowing Rogers is a great defender, is there enough room for Dylan Dingler
Starting point is 01:23:40 to just kinda come in and end up taking a larger share of playing time, because Dingler's another guy that's had pretty good success in the upper levels of the minors, has some power. I think he's got a more interesting offensive profile than Rodgers does. The consensus was Rodgers' defense is just so good. Hinch loves him that it's probably not going to be a thing that swings all the way to Dylan Dingler being the starter, especially in 2025, if it ever happens at all.
Starting point is 01:24:06 Yeah, yeah, I think Roger's in Wisconsin. He's just so boring offensively that if you take him, it's in draft and hold to be your third or fourth catcher. And honestly, it may be a net negative to put him in your lineup. Like you have to think about it. Like he might hit 206 and what's like 206 with the, you know, a homer every other week is, is that something you really want in your lineup? That's, it's cold, but I think that's about right as far as expectations go.
Starting point is 01:24:40 Other prospects, the only one we really haven't hit yet, I guess, Druromo didn't really come up with the rocky stuff earlier and then Samuel Basallo another yet another Oriole. I just generally denigrate not denigrate Necessarily, but just I don't really support catching prospects like I just They have to make it they have to make it they have to prove so much to their major league team that they can do This they can call a game, they can handle the staff, they can block pitches, they can frame pitches,
Starting point is 01:25:09 and they can hit. And it just generally takes them a long time to prove that to a major league coaching staff, I think. Yeah, I know they've played him a little bit at first base in the minors, but I think, since he hasn't played a ton at AAA yet, I think that's where Basalas- He did come up in our match Shaw comps.
Starting point is 01:25:26 Yeah, I think as a hitter he's gonna be a good hitter. He's a pretty good bat, maybe he pushes his way into first. I think on that depth chart, it's so crowded right now, it's really hard to see him getting regular run now. I think it's a year from now where we're really looking at him for redraw purposes, barring some kind of massive trade. Big piece in a trade.
Starting point is 01:25:44 Yeah, that's where I think it would change really quickly, just the name to consider if that were to happen, or if you had enough space to actually stash them. Colorado situation, do you think there's actually a good catcher there? Do you think it's good, but do you think it's Romo, or do you think it's an easy avoid? I mean, nothing in Colorado is an easy avoid,
Starting point is 01:26:03 but 23-year-old Romo with good strikeout rates in the minors that did not do well in his first shot, but probably the prospects reports has a 50 field by Fangraphs. Yeah, he has a chance. He's a plus glove by Eric Long and Hagen's estimation and a plus plus arm, but likely won't make a huge offensive impact. But I mean, projected for a 20% strikeout rate and hitting in cores like, yeah, that's an interesting guy to me. I think it's a little
Starting point is 01:26:37 bit more interesting than like Goodman the vibe I get when somebody has moved around a lot like that is that they don't think he's actually a great defensive catcher. Goodman's like you're like you hope you have him when he's playing somewhere else and has catcher eligibility. Romo's more like this guy could maybe be the catcher going forward. Like can you hit enough to just take a spot from a guy like Sam Hilliard? But then you're also taking a spot from someone like Jordan Beck, who's young and kind of interesting in his own right, too. So, yeah, does he fit into the outfield mix or does he have a better start than Michael Toglia?
Starting point is 01:27:07 Like there's a lot of questions for Goodman to actually get that time even though I understand why people are interested. I've got him in one league already. It might be the only Hunter Goodman team I have. Jerome, here's my parting thought. 28.1% hard hit rate from Fangraphs at AAA last year. That was an 85 games So yeah
Starting point is 01:27:25 The questions about his bat are very real despite the fact that it came in a little above league average And yeah, he popped 14 homers, but that that was the PCL man. You got to be really careful with that So probably a group of players at that catcher position that I'll mostly avoid other than that one hunter Goodman dart that I threw a few weeks back. I think we made it through catchers. There's a good chance someone slipped through the cracks and that's happened at other positions. Let's never go back.
Starting point is 01:27:51 Never go back to catchers. Other than a few cutting room floor names that may come in at a future date, you know, we've got that. Be sure to join the Discord though. Submit your rankings. The Hive rankings are live. We'll have a link to the catchers in the show description and in the Discord. You can find us on BlueSky,
Starting point is 01:28:06 enosatinosaris.beesky.social, imdvr.beesky.social. That's gonna do it for this episode of Rates and Barrels. We are back with you on Tuesday. Thanks for listening. And thanks to Brian Smith for producing this episode, even though he's been trolling me in the background throughout the episode. Thighs of Steel
Starting point is 01:28:34 Hello, I'm Ian McIntosh and I'm the host of the Daily Football Briefing. What is the Daily Football Briefing? It's a special 10 minute daily show designed to bring you up to speed with the most important stories from across the football world Except on Monday mornings when it's 15 minutes and we try to cram in the results Standings and stories from the top 10 leagues on the planet or at least the top 10 leagues I run on a football manager save follow this show today and you'll never miss another big story again Whether it's news that the athletic has just broken David onstein
Starting point is 01:29:04 What happened news from outside the Premier League that other podcasts might ignore. That is a difficult one to explain, so let's go bit by bit. Or it's Champions League week and you just need someone to put it all into context. It's made for a very useful away point in a difficult game in a difficult week. Listen to the daily football briefing in 2025, it's out every weekday wherever you get your podcasts.

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