Rates & Barrels - 2025 Rookies of Interest with Keith Law

Episode Date: February 5, 2025

Keith Law joins Eno and DVR discuss several players from his recently released Top 100 prospects list that should make an impact at the big-league level in 2025 including two from the top-10 in Boston, a few potential aces in Pittsburgh, Detroit, and Philadelphia, and a few prospects primed for a leap toward the top of the list in 2025. Rundown 1:45 Roman Anthony at No. 1, How Red Sox Make Pieces Fit w/Anthony & Kristian Campbell; Adjustments Throughout Time in System 17:12 Faster Timetables and Adjusting Expectations for Rookies 26:36 Carson Williams' 2025 Path in Tampa Bay 33:24 Jordan Lawlar's Outlook 40:18 Is the Starting Third Base Job Matt Shaw's to Lose in Chicago? 53:20 Bubba Chandler: Another Future Ace in Pittsburgh? 59:07 Andrew Painter's Post-TJ Stuff, Phillies' Workload Plans 1:05:46 Big Potential Prospect Risers for 2025 Follow Eno on Bluesky: @enosarris.bsky.social Follow DVR on Bluesky: @dvr.bsky.social Follow Keith on Bluesky: @keithlaw.bsky.social e-mail: [e-mail] Join our Discord: https://discord.gg/FyBa9f3wFe Subscribe to The Athletic: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels Hosts: Derek VanRiper & Eno Sarris Producer Brian Smith Executive Producer: Derek VanRiper Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Visit Superstore.ca to get started. Welcome to Rates and Barrels. It's Wednesday, February 5th. Derek VanRyper, Eno Saris, and a special guest. We've got Keith Law here, senior baseball writer from the athletic. Good friend of the program. Keith, thanks for joining us. Thanks for having me. It is one of the absolute busiest times of the year for you.

The top 100 just dropped. I have work to do. Good stuff to do. You got top 20s rolling out for each organization. I think the entire American League is posted as the time of this recording on Wednesday, so the National League soon. Yeah, I should probably start writing the National League at some point. So you get your keyboard fixed.

So now you can do it, right? This is true. This is true. I'm actually 60% done with the National League. I have six teams left. You got six teams left. Wow. Yeah. Yeah. Cardinals and then the NL West, which isn't running until Monday. So I have a little time, but I want to get it done before my older stepdaughters got a birthday party. And then the Eagles Eagles are gonna win the Super Bowl on Sunday

So I want to get done before all of that Right the Super Bowls on Sunday. I've been writing on Sunday I want to keep Sunday free, huh? Good to know. Thank you for that reminder. I actually forgot that game was on Sunday Yes, it is Sunday. Yeah, it's a stick to my life right now So we want to talk to you about rookies of interest for this year, players that were very likely to debut at some point in 2025. Many of our listeners play fantasy baseball. Some play long, long term formats.

And we may get to a few questions about guys who are a few years away. But I think for a lot of people, fantasy players or not, they want to know who's coming up this year, who's going to make an impact. This year's Golden Claw Award winner, number one prospect in baseball on the updated list is Roman Anthony. I think it makes a lot of sense to start right at the top because Roman Anthony and Christian Campbell, who's also inside your top 10, both of these guys should fit in the Red Sox lineup sooner rather than later.

With the people they already have on the depth chart, we've been wondering what the adjustments are, right? It was kind of easy to see David Hamilton there and say, okay, there's one guy you can push to the bench, but what's the other adjustment and then what kind of immediate impact are you expecting from the likes of Anthony and Campbell? So, you know, I'm of the opinion,

I don't know what the Red Sox front office is thinking specifically, but these are two guys who are, you know, I'm of the opinion. I don't know what the Red Sox front office is thinking specifically, but these are two guys who are, you make room. They're good enough prospects. They've clearly decided they're not trading these guys, right? They traded Kyle Teal, they traded Brandon Montgomery. These are part of the guys they're obviously keeping. I'm sure the White Sox asked.

And so you got to make room. And to me, Anthony has played centerfield. I have always thought he'd be a better fit in right. It sounds like he's better in centerfield than I thought he was gonna be. I saw him, I think two games last year, not enough to give you a real judgment. But the consensus I've heard is he'd be fine

if he left him in center. I happen to think Sidon Rafael is one of the best centerfielders in baseball if they just put him there and let him play there. And he's not their only centerfielder. So to me, it's just easy. You just slide Anthony to one corner or the other. He could play right. He wanted to play left. Obviously left and Boston is challenging. You could try that as well. He's a little bit of the easier one to

fit. Campbell's best position is probably second base. He has played some shortstop. I get wide ranging opinions on whether he could play shortstop. I think the consensus is he's just better off at second base. He's also played the outfield. So you could try that as well. Just the point being to get his bat in the lineup. The thing I keep running into is what they really need is somebody who can play shortstop and be healthy. And they don't really have that, right?

Trevor Story can play shortstop, but he's obviously been declining and gets hurt all the time. And Sedona Refael can nominally play shortstop, but he's just not good there. I'm pretty sure Stackhast had a pretty, his OAA was pretty bad. And he's never looked like a shortstop to me. The moment I saw him in center field,

I'm like, why are we doing anything else? Like if you were born to play center field. So, you know, that's a long way of saying, I'm not really sure, right? Cause you can't play two second baseman in one shortstop. I mean, you can, but it's not gonna go very well. And that's kind of the position they're in once story is on the injured list, which I just assume he's going to be at some point. So I don't know what they, right? There's not an obvious solution. This would be a much better conversation if the

second player were Marcelo Mayer, who is an actual shortstop and a pretty good one, but he's also constantly hurt. And I've got some real issues with his swing right now that I think he's just gonna have to resolve before he's ready. He's just not on the fast track with the other two guys. It's why he's lower on my rankings, but also he just, he didn't even get to AAA last year. He got hurt right before, I think they actually called him up, like the roster move, he went to AAA, but he never played there

because then it was revealed that the injury ended his season. So, you know, ideally for them, we're having this conversation on Labor Day and all three of those guys are in the lineup, right? Anthony and right maybe Campbell's at second and Raffaele's in center been Mayors at short. I mean, that's a perfect perfect world for them, which is of course not gonna happen It's an interesting thing about Hamilton is I'd heard that internally their defensive metrics are pretty good on him Yeah, I believe and actually the external ones are OK. But I don't know how much you've seen him. People said who's seen him don't like his actions or something

that he doesn't look like. What stuff or something? Is his reputation going back to was good? Like he was always it was like this guy can play short. There's not much back there. Yeah, I wouldn't be surprised if that's that's where he ends up because I stories long in the tooth for for a shortstop. But, you know, another thing that's that's really interesting to me that so you have these two red socks at the top, you have another, you know, in your top 100. And you know, we've got a story

coming out soon about, you know, modern hitting development. And, you know, it's focused somewhat on the Red Sox, because this seems to be like like pretty good outcomes for all these guys. And there is something similar I think about Campbell and Anthony. They both seem to have worked on their swing paths like they're they used to be kind of really ground ball heavy and they're kind of getting away from that. They started I think both with a pretty good sense of the zone and hitting the ball hard. So they kind of are just now hitting the ball in slightly different areas. You look at a lot of the guys as they grow

and you have to re-rank guys, you see them as they come through. Do you think that there are certain traits that are more innate and hard to shape and other traits that are more shapeable? And do you think that comes into play at all in these rankings for Anthony and Campbell and Meyer? Yes, absolutely. I think it's a great question.

And I think the there are a couple of things those two guys have in common. They're tremendous athletes, like athletic. And I think a lot of people hear that. It's like, can they run or it's not that it's about moving. Yeah. Right. I mean, you watch you guys watch a lot of games. Right. You get a feel after a while. He's more athletic. He's less athletic. The people, the example, I'm gonna have to find another one because it's getting dated.

But David Wells was a good athlete. He was a big fat guy, but he was a really good athlete. Like he really filled this position. He moved well. The reason he was able to throw strikes for so long, even with, I mean, I think we can call it a beer gut now cause he's basically admitted that's what it was. But he was really athletic. He had good body control. And both those guys do. I remember,

I still have video I saw of Anthony when he was a high schooler. And I think I had him right in the second round, right where they took him because swing wasn't great, but he definitely hit the ball hard. I was like, he's athletic and he seems to have some idea of the strike zones. Tough to tell sometimes these high schoolers, but I saw him at the NHSI tournament where they tend to see a little better pitching at least. And then I saw him again the next year. This was after he'd taken off and all the stories were out about the bad ball data and I will never forget rolling in and seeing him for the first time. It was at Reading.

And I'm like, Oh my God. Like I walk up the side and I see one swing and he scorches a line drive double. I'm like, please tell me he didn't look like that in high school. And I just missed. And like, I got home and uploaded my video and I'm like back and forth and back and forth. Like, oh my God, I just like missed the greatest swing.

And no, he looked totally different. And the Red Sox people said he did this on his own. They gave him all the credit. He went home after the draft, after that fall and reworked his own swing. I think Campbell worked more with the Red Sox people on that, but he's another one where I talked to the area scout who drafted him. He's, you know, he's a bet on the athleticism

because he only played one year at Georgia Tech. He's been on the athleticism and the kid, the makeup, the intelligence, the ability to take instruction also, which is another thing that really matters. But that one's gotta be really hard for you to see. Yeah, it is. I'm taking their word for it, right?

I'm taking a scout's word for it. Every organization wants to say, this kid's got 80 makeup. Oh, he's got the best makeup in the organization. I'm looking like you've said that about five guys already. It can't be 80 on all five. Right? This is not like we'll be gone. They're not all above average, right?

Like this is just not a thing. But, you know, and it's also often interesting when I talked to an area scout who didn't draft a kid and they're like, I love that kid, that kid's gonna work his ass off. He's got great makeup. He's gonna learn. I mean, that's to me the biggest thing like you can be you don't have to be a nice kid. It's nice to know that they're Oh, he's a good human. You'd let your daughter marry him. That's a big old expression.

Yeah, but there are plenty of guys who are not nice guys who work super hard and like, you know, are the most out of their talent. As long as you're not getting arrested, right super hard and like, you know, are the most out of their talent. As long as you're not getting arrested, right? Right? It's like, I don't care if you're a nice human, but are you going to work? And do you have the capacity to learn the capacity and the willingness? I guess those are really two separate things. Will you make changes? Will you make adjustments? If the team comes to you and says you were talking about taking guys who are a little ground ball prone and trying to get them to put the ball in the air more.

Pretty common. Dodgers have done that with a lot of guys, obviously, where some players are not going to take to that and they're going to hit. I'm pretty sure Jake Bowers, after he was with the Rays, kind of came out and said, they tried to change my swing and he didn't like it. He didn't want to do it. I'm not criticizing him. I'm just saying those are things you need to know about a player when acquiring him,

when trying to work with him, when drafting him. Is this guy going to be able to take instruction? Does he have it up here? And then does he have the physical capacity to execute? If you call their coach, like the coach might have some personal beef or not beef, like like that guy or not like that guy for personal reason that has nothing to do with baseball, maybe even. And then on top of it, you could have guys who are yes men who sort of say yes and don't apply it or don't care or whatever, or people who sometimes say you're uncoachable. But what that means is like Cory Seeger is quote unquote uncoachable by some people because he doesn't value their opinion. You know, like he has the people he works with.

I'm uncoachable too. Is it Ron Swans at the hardware store just saying, I know more than you? Is it that? Yeah, Seager. Seager will do that to a person, I think, because he has he has his like his swing coaches he trusts.

And that's good and bad. I hear about this all the time. We're all he went to his own his own pitching guy in the off season. Did it work? Yeah, it didn't get better. I'm fine with that. To me, the worst thing of all is where the kids are basically listening to everybody. I remember hearing this about Bubba Starling where someone close to the kids said he's had so many voices in his ear telling him what to do with his swing. Like he just doesn't know what which way is up anymore. And obviously he did.

He didn't work out. And there may have been more reasons than that, but he just comes to mind as a guy who never found his swing, never did constantly change. Every time I saw him, he looked different. And what I heard was he was what I think he may have been one of those kids where it was like, oh, yes, I'll do that. Oh, yes, I'll do that. And change, change, change and never, never got into a rhythm. Never found one that, never found

one that worked for him. Honestly, that's the biggest thing. Maybe if he'd found one that worked, he would have stuck with it. I can think of even a couple of examples right now of guys who've done something with their swings or their deliveries because some outside source suggested it and it made it worse, made things worse. The results are worse. It looks worse, but what really matters at the end of the day is what are the results. I don't have to love your delivery. If it's working, are you throwing strikes? Is your stuff better?

Are you getting outs? Okay. Well, then I guess I should like your delivery. It sounds like you were just totally in love with Roman Anthony, but did anybody else, you know, push him for the crown? Yeah. Cause most years it's, it's pretty obvious. It's one guy or it's one of two.

This year, I basically had six, maybe seven guys who are just at the top. Because some lists have Christian Campbell at the top. Yeah, he didn't get any support at all when I reached out to people across baseball, people who have a good sense of the minors, either because they've seen a lot or because they're in the front office. They just like that Roman hits the ball harder and has more defensive value and. Yeah, could play up the middle if you needed to. Super athletic, the battered ball data is as good as it gets. People love the swing. I mean, if you like, if you're a swing guy,

that's it, right? It should look like that. You know, Walcott got some love, of course, because he's super young and seems to really, really understand the strike zone for somebody who's young. And obviously kids from the Bahamas have generally, we've seen some pretty polished players come out of there. They don't have a ton of baseball experience, not compared to kids from the Dominican or kids from Venezuela. So the fact that he adapted so quickly was pretty telling.

Got some support for Dylan Cruz also, just because he's there. Like he is, and he should have performed better. Obviously he performed all the way through LSU and no matter how you look at it, the surface level performance, the batted ball data, it's fine. It's fine. He's going to be fine. Doesn't seem like top, top shelf, right? So he's where he is in between. I mean, I talked to Austin Riley once.

Did you think he gets caught in between? There's this weird oscillation of his pull and oppo rates. And it's just, he kind of like, remember he used to be like, wasn't he like an oppo guy in college? Cruz? Dylan Cruz, yeah. Yes, yes. When it was like, oh, this guy's got opposite field power.

And then I think people were like, oh, pull is, pulls where the better, the more power is in the big leagues or whatever. And then I just kind of feel like he's stuck in between sometimes. But Austin Riley figured it out. So, you know, it's not something that you can't figure out. No, I mean, God, Austin's one of the best conversations I've ever had with any hitter. It was amazing. I mean, talk about a guy who understood his swing and understood his approach and was able to execute some pretty specific adjustments. It's funny if you,

I spent a lot of time on Cruz's just individual pitch data over the course of the year too, even before he got called up. I'm like, what's going on? Like I think still Cruz would hit. And it's interesting that like for a while it was fast balls up. Well, then he seemed to close that off, but now he's not, yeah. And he's up. Yeah, and he's not, now they're coming in and he's gotta adjust to that. He's not driving the ball to the pole side like you expect. Nothing's bad, he hasn't stunk.

There still could be a chance of it clicking, it sounds like. Oh, absolutely. Sort of fighting them off in these different places. Maybe he can fight them off to the right places. Yes, somebody even threw at me, is it because, you know, Wyatt Langford got there first and he's feeling the pressure? I'm like, I don't know, man.

That seems like a. He has enough pressure. The pressure is made. Yeah, you're second pick in the draft and the majors are like right there. They're just off screen, right? Yeah. The one thing I will say is it looks like he's just got a job, right? Your opening day, you're in the outfield, probably in left field,

but whatever it is, you have a job. I mean, I would say, kid, you're getting 400, 500 at bats. Just don't worry about it. Just go do your thing. Hit how you want to hit. We'll figure it out later and just see if just telling him, just go hit. And can he at least make better quality contact and figure out later, you know, work on which pitches

to pull and which pitches to go the other way. So just let him get comfortable because obviously we've seen so many very, very talented, very highly touted hitters get to the majors and struggle on that first exposure because big league pitchers are really good. The adjustments. That's the thing is the timetable to get to the big leagues has been shortened. You wrote about this in the preamble. I read the preamble.

I know a lot of people skip right past that. I read the preamble. I know a lot of people skip right past that. I read the preamble. Yes, you're one of three. Yes, three of you read the intro. You kind of indicated this was as hard as it's been to put together a full top 100. And I think one of the reasons you mentioned is that minor league contraction

and more aggressive timetables for a lot of players. And some of its needs on the pitching side. I think some of it's being able to measure pitching differently and knowing guys have big league stuff, maybe even big league command a little bit sooner. So that also nudges guys up, but even hitters and it's not just the angels. Like we can make angels jokes all day. Dylan Cruz got to the big leagues pretty quickly, even for a very highly regarded number two overall pick college bat that mashed,

and I do think if the big leagues are harder than ever or the gap between the minor leagues and the big leagues is as wide as it's ever been, our expectations need to be lower, even for high end prospects debuting. So even for the guys we're talking about, Anthony, Campbell, other guys are going to come up, they might not hit right away. We saw it last year with Jackson Churio. It took him him a couple of months two months really before he started to look like the guy that is going to be perennial first-rounder in fantasy and as a Building block in Milwaukee for the next half decade, right?

It's not easy and I think we lose sight of that sometimes I actually thought you were gonna say Jackson Holliday who write his first exposure And I've been asked twice in the last week on Baltimore related, you know, radio podcasts, are you worried about him? Like he's 21. I think he'd be in the draft this year as if he'd gone to college, but he got to your point, he got there really fast. And I mean, I'm sure you guys have talked about him a bunch, obviously, like

everybody knows what, you know, what it's it's been, what he needs to work on. But it's just, he got there so quickly. I'm not blaming them because he hit at every stop. He just didn't sort of run into an obstacle until he got to big league pitching. But it's that they get there so quickly now and it just raises the expectations. Everyone thought he was going to show up and, you know, at least hit right away or perform right away. And so, well, actually turned out there were some vulnerabilities and big league pitchers figure those out really quickly. God, once they find you, right, that's it. You are not getting away. We talk about this a lot where like minor leagues, even swinging strike rates, usually

swing strike rates will give you a clue. But minor league strikeout rates for hitters Sometimes they poured over almost exactly and a guy who has a 20% he goes to the majors and has a 21 or 22 and you're like, uh-huh Yeah, that makes sense and then sometimes you have a Jackson holiday where it's 18 to 20 percent in the minors and he gets the majors and it's what's 28 now like what 30 like what's what's happened and Sometimes swing strike rate gives you a clue because you're like, Oh, it was 20% in the minors, but it was like a 13, 14% swing strike rate. So like they were just kind of being aggressive and, you know, making contact before they struck out.

But sometimes it's what you're talking about is like a hole that minor leaguers couldn't pick at. That's how I interpret it. How would we be able to see that from the outside? I mean, it takes scouting, right? That's how I interpret it. How would we be able to see that from the outside? It takes scouting, right? That's to me, yes. You know, the scout will say, hey, that slider that he's laying off down and away, big league pitchers are gonna be able to locate that. Three inches closer. And he's gonna... That's the biggest separator because it's not that the big leaguers have just better stuff. There's lots of stuff guys in the minors.

I mean, a lot, it's crazy how many guys in the minors, somebody else. I just wrote up Chen Wei-Lin and the Cardinals system who hit 101 last year. And he's six, seven, which I've been to Taiwan for a baseball trip too. Like I did not see anybody who was six, seven when I saw that and that and delivery works and all of that, like, I mean, he's a good prospect. He's not my top 100. You know, 20 years ago, if you threw 101, you were six foot seven, you were just that's it. You're on top. Right. You throw it between your legs. I'm still putting you know, it's just like, oh, you're another guy. He

throws hard. Okay, well, what else you got? You get to the major commands. Yeah, well, you get to the majors. It's guys who have command. It's guys who have command of a specific off speed pitch that, you know, I'm referring to ever breaking stuff and change ups and split. Like there's so many different varieties. You've got all this pitch design work now where you can, you know, they're calibrating specific pitches to move in certain ways. I think a lot of hitters get to the big leagues and they just haven't seen it before. And it's really hard to have to make that adjustment. And also know you might be sent down to AAA tomorrow if you don't make that adjustment, whereas that's obviously not when you're at any other level in the minors. You might be left in AA all year to make that adjustment. But especially if you're Jackson Holliday and your team's trying to win right now, like, can we carry this guy? You know, the Orioles three years ago would have been like, yeah, we're just gonna let him play through it. It's fine. Now, trying to win maybe the toughest

division in baseball, that's going to be a challenge for them. If they decide to give him a job out of spring training, I wonder how much time they'll give him to make adjustments if he doesn't hit right away. That's something we've been talking about on the Discord a fair amount is like, you know, how hard it is for, you know, like, Yankees prospects to break through. I was talking to somebody from the Yankees and I was like, do you guys have a player development problem? And he's like, dude, for our players to break into the lineup takes so much. Like, Jason Dominguez at one point was like everybody's favorite, like Darling, the Martian, you know, coming up.

And I actually still think he's pretty good. And I think he'll be good regular. But it took him this long to like break through. He had to like wait for Verdugo and wait for this guy and wait for this guy to flame out, you know? And so it's just it's really hard. Some organizations like the A's doing their like mini reset every three or four years, you know,

part of their currency is, okay, now all the guys just get chances for like full years. You know, they get to just play for a full year. Yeah. You know, to me, I hope, obviously they signed some guys this year and where, like just signed some veterans just so they spent some money, but I hope that they keep doing it. I mean, if I were in that front office,

it'd be like, this is a grand experiment, right? It is all house money. We're playing in Sacramento. Who knows if anybody's going to show up. It's going to be hot as hell. Play everybody. Right? Yeah. And I think they should do something more innovative strategy wise even too. You know? Oh, I agree. I agree. I actually love that they took, it's funny because we joke Nick Kurtz was the high on base percentage guy in last year's draft. I guess Wilson was a little bit of a weird pick, right? I mean, that was the people like, where's he on yours? Yeah, I thought it was a reach. I mean, they were betting on defense. I think they're betting they could get him stronger, which hasn't happened yet.

Where did you put him? 25th or so and they took him sixth over. No, I mean, is he in your 100? No, he was on the just missed list because he was not even on your hundred. He hasn't hit the ball hard and does not. Yeah. And his defense went backwards. This is it's the folks who don't know. He was the first round or two years ago. Stack Wilson's kid Wilson Senior was the glove guy. Yes. And so Jacob had that reputation at Grand Canyon. He could I saw him. He could play short shortstop and you know, he was a soft serve hitter, right? Soft serve to the second baseman, soft serve to the shortstop, little bit, you know, and it's like,

oh, that was 83. Oh, that was 87. He really got into that one. He never struck out. And like, I get it. I understood the skill sets. There were better players available on the board at that point with Kurtz. It was like, no, this guy could get to the majors in a year, right? If he just stays healthy, he's a really advanced hitter, hits the ball really freaking hard. Actually the hardest hit ball I ever saw from him as an amateur was it. Yeah, why bother with Seth Brown anymore? Like, oh my God, right? Let's just, you know, not to start the year fine. Like let Kurtz go double A, you want to double A, triple A for a little bit, month here, month there and let's go. There's a scenario where he's the third best hitter on the team in September. So why not just do it?

You have that. That is a luxury of being a noncontending team in that market is you can do whatever. I mean, to your point, like experiment all the way, do crazy stuff with your pitching, like try anything. Don't bunt, but try anything else. You can wait longer on players. You can take chances on failed prospects and give them the run they never got before, right?

I mean, they're the quad A capital. They love quad A guys. They do love quad A. Florida is doing that now. Miami is doing that now. Oh yeah. Miami has been fascinating because they're taking a lot of, they're taking super far away guys,

or like you said, some of these kind of out of favor-ish prospects. I mean, the reactions I hear from other clubs on a lot of their deals was, that's it? That's all they wanted? But I think they, I don't know if it's gonna work. It's the season to shop new styles, electronics, and definitely a holiday trip.

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and book that holiday trip now start getting cash back today By joining Rakuten it's free and easy to use and you can get cash back Deposited into your PayPal account or sent to you as a check It's the smartest way to shop plain and simple start your shopping at Rakuten.ca or get the Rakuten app That's r-a-k-U-T-E-N dot C-A. Miller Lite. The light beer brewed for people who love the taste of beer and the perfect pairing for your game time.

When Miller Lite set out to brew a light beer, they had to choose great taste or 90 calories per can. They chose both because they knew the best part of beer is the beer. Your game time tastes like Miller time. Learn more at MillerLight.ca. Must be legal drinking age. It's all like 26 year old guys that like project well, you know, like, yes, or, you know, the guy, the shortstop, or 19 years, like 18. Right. Or people say, I mean, I had somebody tell me he thought star on Kaba might be the best defensive shortstop

he's ever scouted. Like, I get that. Okay, right. He also is living like Jack Wilson offensively. That's the worry. That is absolutely the worry. You can pray that an 18 year old is going to get stronger. What Jacob Wilson is 23 now. So it's like, no clock might be ticking, but you're right. I mean, that is absolutely a path that could happen for Kaba, but you're one of those teams you can wait five years.

You can take that guy. And you know what? If three years from now, suddenly you're contending and that guy has started to pan out, he's in double A and you can trade him again. I totally understand it. Even if I don't agree with and you can trade them again. Yeah. I totally understand. Even if I don't agree with each individual move for either of those clubs, I get it. And they should be. It's an ethos.

Yes. It's a plan. I have a plan. Say what you will about the tenants. Yeah. Right. Want to ask you about Carson Williams, Keith, the situation in Tampa is a little more complicated now because they brought Haseong Kim in as

a free agent, but there is an opt out for Kim. He's coming off a shoulder injury. You could play Kim at second base depending on what else is going on with the roster. Williams passed the AA test with Flying Colors last year, popped 20 homers, stole 33 bases, looks like a guy that's going to do everything fantasy players want. Do you think we see a lot of Carson Williams this year because one thing I've had a difficult time with with the Rays is Figuring out their timelines. They have been historically even different front office regimes a very Challenging front office to read as far as when they feel a player is ready

Yeah, they don't rush guys at all even when it seems like they have an opportunity tell me if disagree I'm making assertion. Oh, they you disagree. I'm making an assertion. Oh, they're supers. I mean, they're Aranda's like, I know that's just, he's not really a top prospect, but like he's been there forever. He's been in that system for 20 years. He's got a fourth option. Yeah.

Going back to Nate Lowe and even going back to further like the Desmond Jennings era. Like it's a ton of players over the years that I've been like, oh, he's ready. He's ready. And I'm like, no, no, no. Curtis Meade. players over the years that I've been like, he's ready. He's ready. And I'm like, no, no, no. Curtis me. It's Curtis. I'm an arrow camera narrow. They had him up in 23 and they sent him back down.

I'm not saying they were wrong. It's just, you think the race, oh, they're just going to play him now, right? They're just getting, do you think they just want him to be in the major leagues in their peak range the most? Like they want him to leave Tampa when he's 27 or 28, you know what I mean? So they just, that's a good, I wasn't thinking that's a totally valid argument. Could just wait a little bit. They have them a little bit closer.

Just the peak years or whatever. Yeah, just to try to time it. My inference was just that they are trying to get guys as ready as possible so that they did to minimize the chances of that kind of initial struggle that we were just talking about with a lot of their guys. And I would worry about that way more with Williams than I would with Caminero because Williams, he's been a struggle for me almost since day one because he strikes out a lot.

I could think he has the highest strikeout rate of anybody on my top 100. If it's not first, it's probably second, but he does everything else and he is really freakishly talented. Like he plays the hell out of shortstop He's 31% in the minor leagues last year. There's a lot. That's a lot of strikeouts. Was that across two levels? I'm not sure where I pulled 28 from 28 was last year. Yeah, it's 31.4 the year before that though Okay High a mostly so you're striking up 30 almost 32 percent of the time at high a that is a concern

It's not a ton of chase if I remember correctly, there's some in zone miss. She was really hard So when he does hit it, you know, there's power there. He's not the most physical guy either I remember seeing the first time I saw exciting people in the draft It was pretty mixed really pretty mixed because he doesn't necessarily look the part of the 2020 shortstop and he didn't run like this in high school either. The Rays actually worked with him on his strides just to get more speed out of him. They're like, you're a good athlete. Why are you running average-ish? And now you can get plus plus running times out of him. What do you do with a prospect who it's hard contact. It is over the fence power.

It's speed. He plays the most valuable position and plays it really well. And will actually take a walk, seems to understand it at the plate, but he strikes out roughly 30 percent of the time. I think that's still a hit as is, like even if he doesn't get better in terms of swing and miss, it sounds like he's going to do enough damage. You're going to run enough damage. You're gonna run 12, 15% barrel rates, fine. And the walk rate's gonna be high enough

where the OBP's not gonna hurt you, so he's not gonna get buried in the lineup. That still is a really good player. And this is where I think the athleticism and the ability to make the adjustments and being receptive to different things would come into play because I could see Carson Williams and the way you're talking about him pulling something

like what George Springer did. George Springer as a prospect was a three true outcome strikes out too much guy. And look what he turned into over time, right? So it can go both ways. We get duped more on the low K-rate guys, the 20% K-rate guys that jump and never get it back. And I feel like we rarely unearth the,

this guy struck out a lot in the minors, but actually got a lot better as a big leaguer. And that's what made him a superstar. Larry Butler, Lawrence Butler, Larry Butler? Lawrence Butler. He asked me, I think in the under my age top 20, can you think of a guy who really brought down his K rate? Didn't he?

Mm-hmm, yeah, he was running 30% K rates in the lower level, high 20s at a bunch of stops and got under 20. It didn't look good. Like I would see him and, God, he missed that by a foot. And then he brought it way down. I mean, I'm sort of throwing it out to you too. I don't know if you guys talked about it. Well, I talked to him this year and he said that one of the big things was keeping his head still. Interesting. Which seems like something you hear from a high school coach. It's not like, oh, what?

I never heard that before. Let me do it. But you know, I see the- That's some advanced analysis. Thank you, coach. But he focused on that, and he said he just saw everything better. Wow.

But you say that, except obviously I'm going through video and notes on a lot of players. Can I curse on this? Is that okay? I think we have to cut it or beep it now. New rules, not our rules. I see a lot of dumb-ish while I am going through it where it's like, dude, you're stepping in the bucket. They tell little leaguers not to do that. Right, right, right. Or I'm watching, I'll throw this one out there, Jimmy Crooks, catcher in the Cardinal system had a tremendous year at double A really high leg kick. And when he gets that foot down, it's late.

And I think he's not picking up spin because he's so late to just get set. I don't know if that's easy to fix or not easy to fix. I don't know the kid. I can't really even speak to the athleticism. The only time I ever really saw him live was in the fall league and catchers looked like. Crap. Oh, they're so tired.

They're so tired. Yeah. Um, I even went back to my notes on him from that year in fall league and I was like, oh, I said he looked tired. OK, well, it's good. At least I know that the major league catchers in the playoffs have like an 81 WRC plus. I believe it. They're gassed, right? That job sucks. It's really hard.

Oh my God. Maybe you should have two good catchers and not just one guy that catches like 120 games in the backup guy that gives them a day off every day. You figured it out. You know what they're doing. Retchman and Bisayo. They're gonna go into October and be like, we got this now. We got two catchers. Might be really smart. One gets hurt. You still have a really good one. If two catchers is be really smart one gets hurt. You still have a really good one Better yeah, why not? I see two short stops that could play in the major leagues year this year that are in your top ten that are right next To each other Carson Williams and Jordan Lawler. They seem very different. Could you compare and contrast a little bit?

I do think they're very different. Whereas I think Lawler is it's a little more traditional, you know, the sort of the I'm Recent traditional he's like sort of more in the like physical, strong, hard hit, gonna make a lot of contact. Good idea at the plate, very steady shortstop, good athlete. Maybe not as much wow on either side of the ball, just a really, really solid player. Has the bat speed come back after the shoulder injury? I heard from guys who saw him, he went to play in the Dominican winter league.

I even tried to see them. His team came up to New York and he was not in the lineup. I was there and then found out he wasn't playing. I'm like, you freaking kidding me. Um, that, that whole weekend was like I had fun in New York, but the weekend was a waste of time. Very, very disappointing. I heard he looked great. Actually, his performance wasn't great. But Scouts, he went down and saw him. They're like, he looks good. He's swinging the bat again. It's loose. It's easy. So it's like, all right, I'm going to, I'm going to hold

on that. That was just very much a like, buy and hold on there. Because obviously he was really good. And he was in the big leagues 23. He'd earned his way there. Certainly. I don't know that it's a star, right? Carson Williams might be a star. Jordan Lawler is just, he's more in the Dylan Cruz camp of, this guy's gonna be a good big leaguer, and probably for a while, but maybe there's just not as much ceiling, you're just getting more of the probability,

which is a tough thing that I think you're ranking any kinds of players, whether big leaguers or prospects, it's how do I balance that? There's a lot of value in just saying, you're gonna be like a two and a half, three war player for many years. that turns out to be really good It's just not as sexy as always gonna have a seven war season beyond MVP balance That description makes me think of Willie Adamis as a prospect

Maybe Willie Adamis is a big leaguer even dance be Swanson because I feel like Willie Adamis and dance be Swanson They're a little bit of like the spider-man meme for me like in terms of what they do like they're good They're very good players, but they're a little bit of like the Spider-Man meme for me, like in terms of what they do, like they're good. They're very good players, but they're not elite players. And that's still extremely valuable to big league front offices. And Jordan Lawler, so much of the story has been disrupted by injuries so far, too. You could just be healthy. I think we'll see a lot of him in Arizona this year. I'm glad you kind of brought up Samuel Besayo. You got a number three on your top 100 and all the questions

I was thinking about surrounded Kobe Mayo, but let's talk about both of them. I mean this Orioles team, it's so top heavy with quality position players. At one point last year, I think they had 11 bats projected to be better than average by WRC plus all in the roster. And some of them are like kind of platoon guys, but still finding playing time for a young guy is very tough. So for Mayo trying to break that is screwed. That's the curse that I got to have to curse that question to put his face on the back of the milk carton. Are you a Heston guy?

Did you like him? Yeah. I think he can hit. I think he hit it hard. He's not much of a defender, but there's plenty of hard contact skill there. At worst, I think you got a platoon first base DH. I mean, stick him in right. It's not awful. It's just not good. Problem is the last thing they need is another left-handed hitting corner guy, right?

There are like so many of those lefties. I mean, it's the Colton Couser problem, right? He can mash righties, and he's just never hit lefties ever. Really, what he mashes is right handers fastballs, but you can live with that. You can make a good career doing that. You know, Preston Kirstad is right handed. He's got plenty of playing time, but they just sort of keep running into the they're pretty lefty. Yeah. Well, you know, the Mayo has the problem of like the infield's pretty good.

You know, I mean, I guess he here. What, what do you, what do you think with Mayo is like, maybe holiday needs a little more time and Mayo sneaks in ahead of him or is how I think so. Yeah. Yeah. I would, I would absolutely say so. So I was surprised. I mean, it's still, we haven't season hasn't started yet.

I'm surprised that both Mountcastle and O'Hern are still in Baltimore because that seems, I would certainly rather, you know, all else being equal, give any at bats that Mountcastle is getting to Mayo. Just, you know, I don't think it's going to be much worse production. It might be better. And it will certainly be better for you in the long term because you're helping Mayo develop because he's kind of hit all the way up and he's, he is the one guy in that system where they've done a really great job.

He's just gotten better and better and better each year. He was kind of tall and awkward and people didn't really love the swing initially. He's not going to have a position. He was a high school draft in 2020. He took Kerastad, went way under slot, signed Mayo over slot, and then a high school pitcher has just never been healthy with the rest of the money. But Mayo has been like maybe their biggest player development success story the last five years.

And next step is he just needs big league at bats. It's time. He hit the ball 115 last year. You got, he's got good bat speed, huh? He is a big strong dude. First time I saw him like this is, it's not pretty. He's kind of awkward. I don't know if he's going to have the plate coverage to do that.

He just got better every single year He absolutely won me over with his progress with his adjustments and 115 Oh, you you have my attention at that point But 20 year old catchers don't you're saying that maybe Basayo makes this could make this roster at some point But 20 year old catchers that doesn't happen. Usually do you think he's that refined as a catcher? No, I think that's the biggest thing has to work on on, actually, is the receiving. He can throw, he can really throw. Like right now, if you just put his arm in the game and leave the rest of them in AAA, that would work. I don't think we figured that out quite yet. And he's not bad behind the plate at all. It's just he needs work. And it's, you know,

that's another thing too. You get to the big leagues and guys have, you know, pitches that move every direction, right? And the peer front, right, goes around the hitter and comes in and, right, and comes in and you've just got to figure, that is another challenge. In addition to all the other stuff we asked catchers to do, you are now catching better stuff with better location and working with a whole new set of pitchers who've probably worked with a lot of veteran catchers before and may have different expectations. That is a lot to ask of a 20 year old. It's a lot to ask of a 24 year old. So I think he will get some big league time this year cause he's just kind of ready to do something, but I don't think he's going to even be like a main backup

to Richmond barring some kind of serious injury. I think he just, he comes up a little bit, catches once a week, gets some pinch hitting, maybe at the end of the season, just to sort of gradually integrate him and get him working with pitchers, working with the big league staff, but with Richmond is the primary. But if that, if they can do that and have Richmond not be an 80 WRC

plus guy in October, right. That's a win. Anytime you can give Richmond off so that he's, I was going to say healthier, which is more physically ready, less exhausted. Yeah. Yeah, maybe so. I think the situation for Matt Shaw looks really good in Chicago, right? Like the Orioles, you're like, how do you make the pieces fit?

No, what do they do? No, the newest rumors are Regman. They're working with Regman. That's the big thing that would make Matt Shaw's path for 2025 much more complicated, even though you can play other spots. But he should be the opening day third baseman as things stand right now Keith Seems to be the plan right? That's that has the trade of Paredes You I never thought was a lot, you know

He was fine for what they had they needed him at that point trading him away Just seemed to clear a path for Shaw and they love Shaw everybody loves Shaw everybody thinks he can hit My only real question on him is the arms not great. We'll see what it looks like at third. And they're aware of it. They've worked on it. He's worked on it. There are certain things you can do to just, at least if he's really accurate

and can kind of get into a good throwing position, he can compensate for that. Obviously if he hits really well, no one's gonna talk about his arm. I do think he can physically handle playing the position like in terms of range, in terms of coming in on balls, et cetera. But it's about the bat. It's a great swing, it's the ball reasonably hard,

puts it in that optimal blanch angle range a ton. It's just like he's going to barrel a lot of balls. It may not be a ton of over defense power, but he's going to have a lot of hard hit line drives, a lot of extra base hits. And so far, he's made it, it's another one, he just keeps making adjustments. They keep moving them up. He had a rough start last year where he was hitting the ball extremely hard and getting nothing for it. And then just as that started to, you know, got a little bit more of a sample size here, all the superficial stats started coming up, moving them up to triple A, facing tougher pitching, adjusted to it very quickly actually. So yeah, he's one of the only rookies I can think of anywhere who's got a job, right? There aren't very many. Kumar rocker is another one on the list where it's like, no, I'm pretty sure

he's in the rotation and should be. A lot of these situations are kind of like, let's see what happens in the spring, let's see who's healthy. And there's a few things out of their control, or at least they have to have a good enough spring to kind of force the issue in the case of most of these guys. There were two teams that have had really quiet off seasons to have a lot of high quality prospects, I mean, the Mariners are look really good overall right now. There are two teams that have had really quiet off-seasons to have a lot of high-quality prospects. The Mariners look really good overall right now.

And I was starting to wonder if maybe the uninspiring winter they've had leaves the door open for Cole Young to show up sooner than expected. Cole Emerson is the better prospect and Feltin Selestine is a few years away. But I like what they've got in the system. Are they going to try and cheap their way to giving those guys opportunities because it will make their roster a lot more exciting quickly if they're going to be aggressive with some promotions. I have just floated out there for a while.

I think Cole Young is the guy they'll end up trading because he is at least in terms of shortstop defense, he's behind Emerson and behind Celestin. It's not that Cole Young isn't good, but they've got two better guys coming up behind him. And Cole Young is good. He's good. He is another one in that like Cruz waller where I think he's going to be solid for a while, but I don't know that there's a whole lot of ceiling there.

And I know the team still value him reasonably well, whereas with Harry Ford, there's a huge, another one of these Mariners prospects was just huge discrepancies, because if you think he's a catcher, he's a really good prospect. If you don't think he's a catcher, it hasn't looked good anywhere else. They've tried him. Kind of like the Henry Davis or something. Yeah. And not dissimilar.

It's got the worst thing they ever did to Henry Davis was try him at another position and it seemed to like ruin his life. similar. It's got the worst thing they ever did to Henry Davis was try him at another position. It seemed to like ruin his life. And so I think young is to your question, do I think young shows up this year? Yeah, probably. I mean, he's the only one of their top 100 guys who I think is reasonably close to the majors, all their guys are and even if you just keep going down the list, I think the next three I have in their system were far below who towards ACL in Loe, sent you the switch pitcher, which is fine. Good take time. But he hasn't debuted yet.

Yeah, and I think they're still trying to figure out, right? He is a really a right-handed pitcher who just happens to be able to throw a 95 with the other arm, which is crazy, but it's like not a thing. And also like they're gonna have to change the rules for this if you were really trying to do that. And then Ryan Sloan, a high school pitcher, who hasn't debuted, that's now nine deep in their system.

So as good as the system is, I had it as the best in baseball. You don't think Bliss is that great? Now, I don't think he qualifies anymore. I love watching him also because he's my size. Like, really, I got close to him with you were probably there. The year he was at the Futures game and I got close enough. I'm like creeping over. I'm like, oh, you're five. This is legit. I see you, buddy.

I love the fun size, guys. They're just, you know, there's a ceiling and we can't reach it. He's fun. He's fun. He's he's a he's a solid player, but I don't think he's I don't think he's a regular. I think he's like a really nice bench piece. Move around a couple positions. It's all hard than you think for, for five, six guy. But yeah, I could see Cole Young ending up spending the whole second half in the big leagues. That wouldn't be a shock.

It's also, if they're going to go trade for something and if it doesn't, obviously all the rumors have been, they were going to trade like Luis Castillo or one of the other starters or something, but if they were going to do a more traditional, we're going to give you some prospects for a big leaguer. I think that's the most, I hate to say expendable because it's not, it, it sounds like I'm denigrating and I'm not. It's just, they got other guys. They got a lot of middle infielders coming and you know, he's got some

probability, but the other guys have ceiling. Like Colt Emerson, if he just stays healthy is a star and he's going to run right past Cole Young if he just said, is a star and he's going to run right past Cole Young. If he just said like, honestly, like a full healthy season and they're going to be neck and neck in the system. Can we talk pirates? Just run real quick. Second, I'm looking at Nick York at 50.

I kind of liked that deal for them. The Quinn Priester for Nick York deal. I thought that was worth it. They need bats. You know, their arms have been pretty good. I love Thomas Harrington. I love, I love a Chandler coming through. And so Nick York, there's a fair amount that rides on him or Nick Gonzalez or somebody

stepping forward and hitting. Other than O'Neill Cruz, I don't think they developed a major league average bat. So do you see that middle infields? Like, do you think Nick York could play short? Do you think Nick Gonzalez can play short? Do you think they can coexist or how different do you think they are as players? Didn't they also just sign Adam Frazier? Yeah, but to like a million dollars, you can like, you know, I don't know.

They put him on the 40. That was the thing I didn't know. He stunk last year. Like that was bad. Like if you don't think Nick York can do that, it was like 290 on base, 290 slug. You don't think Nick York can do that. What are we doing? I didn't really get it either. The path of least resistance is probably to put York in left.

I don't love that. I think he's fine at second. I don't think he's great. He will never throw well. The arm has gotten a little bit better since he was a draft pick in 2020 and had come off shoulder surgeries. He couldn't throw it all. And kind of like a crazy like some people were hated the draft pick and it was like out of left field sort of. Completely. Like he wasn't on my top 100. He wasn't on somebody's, I don't know if it was pipeline or BA, like not on their top 200, you know, it was one of those like they took who? Yeah.

How does the pandemic drafts of crazy stuff happened that year, but still, even after the draft, people were like, what the hell are the Red Sox doing? And then he had a great first year, terrible second year has had some injuries, but last year, especially got off to a slow start and apparently the story I heard was kind of went to the Red Sox. People were trying to do stuff with his swing. He was like, I'm going to hit the way I want to hit. And he took off and he got to the pirates and he just kept going and kept going and

kept like, look at his. I know you guys have looked from, say, the listeners like go look at what he did last year. Like that guy went he went up to AAA and hit better against better pitching and kept it rolling and everybody I know who saw him after the trade were like, Oh man, this guy is like, it's now it's hard contact. He's going to hit for average. Everything's a little better than you thought.

It's a little more power. He's running a little better. He's fielding a little better. He's throwing a little better. Like maybe he just needed some time. And maybe he needed to get out of the system like change a scenery guy to you know hopefully the pirates give him some runway somewhere i'm not a nick and zollis fan i've never thought that swing was gonna work i always thought it was gonna be some power and he

is a little bit in his own head sometimes like the swings changing a lot or like he had the foot injury then was that a year and a half ago too and i don't know that screwed with his swing you could also be right i don't know but it's not working right. He had a nice two weeks when he first came up last year and then was back to being Mick Gonzalez again. And so if he's the best you have, you play him, but I would rather give me, give York those at bats and I don't know. The problem is I don't think either of them can play short.

Gonzalez would be the better bet to play short cause he actually did it in college. York was actually even drafted as a second baseman, right? A second baseman. Because he had the surgery. I think the last time he actually played shortstop, you know, more than a game or two was probably as high school junior. Yeah. So I would say Gonzalez try Gonzalez at short and see, I mean, God, if he could do it, he'd have some value, right? He'd be a much better, it'd be a very different profile if he could. I'm just very much in favor of giving Nick York that job sooner rather than later and saying,

again, here's 400 at-bats, just go ahead. Yeah, it is strange how they've done so well on the pitching side in the last few years, really becoming an organization that thrives in that area without figuring it out on the hitting side. I wondered if there's a world in which Joey Bart, Henry Davis and Andy Rodriguez are all actually in the lineup at the same time because Henry Davis can play

in the outfield as they've done that so far. Bart looked okay last year, looked like a pretty decent pickup for the Pirates. And then Andy Rodriguez has at least dabbled in playing other positions. So by need, if that trio brings maybe three of the seven best bats the Pirates have available, they may have to mix and match and use all of them. Am I projecting too much on Henry Davis making adjustments and Andy Rodriguez being able to hit big league pitching consistently,

or do you think that's a realistic possibility? I think it's a realistic possibility in part because Andy can really play other positions. Like he's really good at first. I remember he played a little bit of second base, I think in double or triple A and the Pirates were, why are you good at this? But could you do that, play him at first and Bart and Davis probably switch off behind the plate.

Bart's obviously a better catcher. Davis always hit until he got to the big leagues. And then, you know, he really struggled the moment they started putting him in the outfield. They also tried to make him an outfielder in the big leagues, which I am not a big fan of with any player. Big leagues are hard. Let's not make it harder, right? There's no big, you know, you don't get extra points for increasing the level of difficulty. So, you know, if letting those guys swap out catcher DH a lot, you know, one, do they both just hit better?

And two, do you, back to Yunos point earlier, right? They're just healthier through the season. I think that the Pirates are playing in October, but it's possible. You know, wouldn't rule it out. Those guys are stronger to the end of the season. Also, it gives you a little more chance to evaluate, you know, what if Bart or Davis beats expectations and creates some trade value where you can go fill a need somewhere else? Everybody wants catchers

Everybody wants catchers. Look at my top 100 catchers all over it. That wasn't like a Philosophical choice is just as I started lining them up. I'm looking right now at caro rushing styles right in a row 15 16 17 Right, like sometimes I do that. I'm like did I put too many catchers in a row? I'm like, that's not a thing Right? Like sometimes I do that. I'm like, did I put too many catchers in a row? I'm like, that's not a thing. Stop, stop, right? Put them in order and stop overthinking this. I get in my own head. So yeah, I mean, I mean, the Pirates could be in a decent spot like they did with Priester, right? Where I think they recognize Priester's fastballs problematic and they had plenty of pitching. So let's go flip them for a guy we really need. Then they did the deal for Horowitz, which I didn't love as much. But it was the same idea. We have plenty of pitching, we think we

got the most out of Luis Ortiz. I think they're a little down on Michael Kennedy. I think they feel like one of the prospects who went to Cleveland just, it's not the projection isn't projecting. And so they felt like it was, you know, good time to trade those guys. But again, it was training from strength. We're good at developing pitching, we're not so much at developing hitting. Let's trade from strength to go address our weakness.

Let's get to a few pictures. We're not going to be able to cover nearly as many pictures as we did hitters. But since we're talking pirates, let's talk about Bubba Chandler. I think you don't I landed on Bubba Chandler might be better as a rookie than Jared Jones was and Jared Jones was really good as a rookie overshadowed by Paul skeins a bit. So Chandler I think fits into what we were talking about earlier, the extremely athletic prospect, right?

A guy that was recruited to play football and baseball at Clemson, if I remember correctly. So what do you see for floor from Chandler once he's up this year? And what's the long term ceiling look like for a guy like this? I mean, he could be a number one starter if he settles on a breaking ball that's even just consistently solid average for him and he can spin it. It's not that he just has not really had the feel for either. He's tried to throw a both maybe he needs to pick one. Some of these are all more than nebulous sort of player development things, but the fastball is crazy. It is so I mean, it is a fun fastball

to watch. That thing looks like it is just jumping as it approaches the plate. And his change up is easy plus and hitters got longest outing I ever saw from him was at Wilmington, which is high a woman to is not very good that year. It was on there. It was like those commercials where some big leaguer shows up at a little league field or something right that it looked like that You don't get nervous about guys that are changed up first? No, because we've seen some guys succeed with that. Like the Michael Walker, Michael Walker never had an average break, still doesn't have an average break. I guess Gossman.

He's pitched a long time. Gossman, yep, split, change, split. I'm fine with that. And because they'll get, usually get the other side out with that. I'm more concerned about the guys where it's fastball breaking ball and they just don't have that third pitch, where it stinks. Often, not always, but they often end up with pretty big platoon splits that way. And it's a fast track to reliever them, I guess,

if you really can't figure that out. I mean, it's always my assumption. You know, we say, well, we could try something else, change this change up grip, try a split. But I think we see more people now with like three or four breaking balls than ever before. And sometimes I get nervous that the change up guy can't spin it.

And so then he's going to have trouble getting same handed guys out. And that's like, it's kind of a reverse of the old problem is like, how can you be a starter if you can't get same handed guys? Yeah. Oh, it's I think it's absolutely true. Yeah. And I mean, with a lot of those guys, too, where it's like, we've got three different breaking balls. Yeah, but is it's I think it's absolutely true. Yeah, and I mean with a lot of those guys too where it's like We've got three different breaking balls. Yeah, but is anything good?

Right. It's fine to try all three, but at some point you're gonna have to try to throw one of them more You have to pick one and are they is it just one amorphous blob or not? But you know that the flip side for me is Casey Mize You know I still think he could maybe figure it out But like he's fastball changeup and he throws up 89 mile an hour slider that stuff plus likes, but he tells me himself, I don't have a great feel for spin. It's funny when that person tells you that.

I mean, I kind of give him credit for understanding that because God, the number of times I see, I was looking at this brand, you know, guy low in the Cardinal system just happened to be the one I was writing. So I keep bringing up these examples, Sal this brand, you know, guy low in the cardinal system just happened to be the one I was writing. So I keep bringing up these examples, named Saladin, who, you know, his spin rates are low on his breaking pitches. And I'm watching video and I'm like, Oh yeah, yeah, well, that's what that looks like. That looks like a guy who is like, he is trying to will that thing to break. It is not happening.

I'm like, son, try something else. Cutter, let's go cut her. Yeah, I would just, yep. You're just call it a day. Like you can, it's always funny to me when I see a guy with a higher spin, I know spin rate isn't everything, but you see a guy with a higher spin rate on his four seamer than he does on his slider. Like how does that picture not even necessarily supposed to be trying to spin? But I do see more and more of those because obviously recording these high spin, high carry

for seamers and back to where you were saying, if you can do that and you've got to change up, especially you've got to change up, it's got a little, a little fade to it in addition to just sort of straight down tumble. Those guys can, they can do all right. They might just be back end, but they can, they can have a career. They might just be back end, but they can, they can have a career. Logan Henderson with the Brewers, he's one of those guys where it might be all of a 70 change up and his breaking ball's not very good.

Chandler has a much better fastball or whatever. Oh my God, Chandler is like, I think I've seen him up to 99. And I think he's got a better chance to have that average or even better breaking ball in the end. And he's so athletic and God, he was a two-way player until 2023, I think, was when he finally gave up hitting. So in high school, right, it was pitcher shortstop quarterback.

And he's, he is hyper athletic and he, he made huge strides last year in terms of repeating the delivery and commanding the fastball better. Cause when I saw him that long, I've seen him since, but that was just the longest outing I ever saw. He was his own worst enemy. He just, the fastball was moving so much, he was having a hard time getting it into the zone. And so the Wilmington hitters, the smarter ones are just like, I'm not going to swing.

Not a bad strategy. I'm a huge fan. He's just fun. I love, you know, I mean, you guys know, right? You, you know, especially you, the way you look at pictures, right? When you see a guy with stuff like that, you're like, Oh, this is fun. This is why I do what I do. I saw some Jared Jones last year before he was up and the year before and I was like,

yeah, I think it's fine. You know, the triple A, the ABS thing, like, you know, I think that was screwing with him. I was like, this is this is this is a nap. He's nasty. And he's trying to deal with computers right now. Yes, right? A lot of guys do that where it's like control, control, control. You walked six per night. What the hell just happened? Yeah. Yeah. I think it does get a little bit in their heads. What do you what do you think about Andrew Painter this year? Have you seen him post surgery and think it's all back? Stuff was back.

Body looks good. Delivery looks good. He could still spin it, which is always like, you know, some guys come back without their fast balls. Some guys come back and the breaking ball's not there anymore. His slider was still really, really good. He's still a giant. I think the only thing holding him back at this point is just how many innings do they

want to put on him after two lost years? What, he threw 10 innings or so in the fall league? I'm credit to the Phillies for just saying we're sending him out there and he's going to pitch. So that could be a lot, but he's going to go, I think he made four or five starts out there. I wish more teams were aggressive like that. And look, fall league will take any pitching, you can send them. And you've got these guys who haven't pitched, they're coming off some kind of injury, surgery, whatever, send them out there. It's the lowest stakes possible. And you have a ton of control versus sending to like Venezuela or Dominican League or something

where you don't have the control over how those guys get used. It's a great environment. He was 96, 98 again. Change up is fine. He's just going to have to learn to use it more. I wondered, I don't even know where I said or wrote this at this point, but would they have him work as a sort of, you know, three inning starter early this season, build him up a little bit. And then when he's approaching the innings cap, maybe bring him up to just be a short reliever for the rest of the year. Cause obviously the

stuff is probably going to miss major league bats right now. And this way you're still getting used to, you don't have to shut him down in July because he's hit some arbitrary innings limit. Instead, you can still use him to you don't have to shut him down in July because he's hit some arbitrary innings limit Instead you can still use him the length in your bullpen for a little bit and get him acclimated to the big leagues Yeah, Matt Galb had a report I think it was Dave Dombrowski who was quoted in his saying they don't expect painter to pitch in the majors until July ish So they're really gonna like slow play him and then bring them just let him go Which that to me points more towards lighter workloads throughout the spring and then bring them up and just let them go, which that to me points more towards lighter workloads

throughout the spring and then maybe five innings at a time in the second half of the season. Like that at least leaves the door open. It's about the time Jesus Lazardo will be injured, so. Yeah, right, yeah, you're playing against the possibility of broken down starters at that point in season two, but then you have them available for the postseason, which I think they would want him available

in October for sure I'm very glad to see your number 11, you know stuff plus is my my little baby and we updated today and Jackson jobes still looks beautiful in it He is one of the best stuff plus numbers in triple a last year because we had some triple a numbers It looks like it all fits together, really big fastball. He has like kind of the almost agramian cutter slider, like that kind of 90 mile an hour slider thing. I've just was a little surprised.

I know it's only four innings, but he comes to the major leagues and he doesn't really get whiffs. And then I started looking at his minor league numbers and I would have just assumed if you asked me without looking that he had 30% strikeout rates all through the minors and he did have a fair amount of that but last year he was more 25%. Is there something about how it fits together or is he pitching to contact to kind of go longer or what did you, is there any blemish or is

there any question? No, other than he's been hurt, right? He's missed basically half of, I think, each of the last two years, non-arm stuff, at least fortunately. You know, and you just worry about any pitcher who throws that hard, that young. He was 99 in high school with high spin. He's got a really good change up, too. I don't love the delivery, but it's not a problem.

Like, it's just not exactly how you draw it up. I do think there's an intent to go for weak contact there. I think he's got the pitches to get to generate weak contact. And I think that is the intention. I share your surprise a little bit. I definitely, if you just had me watch him a couple of innings behind the plate and said, what do you think this guy's strikeout rate was this year?

And if I didn't know who he was, I would probably have said the 30, 35. Yes. And you don't see the ball super well. I mean, that's the trade off. Sometimes the, the less than perfect delivery has some deception. Yeah. Yeah. If hitters didn't like seeing, I think I've seen him four times now hitters do not like seeing him. You know, it seems like they have very awkward swings off of him. I give AJ Hinch a ton of credit for rolling him out there a couple of times too. I think he had one playoff game maybe and he had struggled and one maybe he got into two. You know what?

This is what they used to do. Now I sound like, you know, old man, I was, they used to get their feet wet or whatever, right? Trial by fire. Like, hey, we think we're a playoff team next year. We expect you to contribute meaningful innings. You are going to come into a pressure situation. And then you struggled the first one, if I remember correctly, you struggled the first one, it was better the second one. Great. Absolutely great.

Set him up for some kind of major league role to start this season. Hopefully it's in the rotation. Maybe they ease him in in some kind of bulk innings role because everything's about innings limits. I mean, he has not pitched a ton. So I'm not totally criticizing that, but somewhere he should be on the big league roster to start the season. I hope he gets the full season in the majors. 95 and two thirds innings, I think last year before the little bits in the postseason. So I wonder if it'll be, I've used this example a few times in recent weeks,

the Spencer Strider year one plan from Atlanta where it's multiple innings out of the pen for a little while. As soon as a clear need opens up in the rotation, boom, he's in the rotation. And they've got a few guys that have pretty bad injury histories. Alex Cobb on a one year deal, Jack Flaherty, or they just brought back those two guys alone. If anyone else breaks down, then you got your spot. Flaherty didn't look great at the end of the season.

He was great before they traded him. He signed an injury deal. He signed a, give me $10 million if I'm injured next year. Like, you know. Yes. That was a weird deal. I agree with Derek, but like totally. That's, again, I wish more teams did that.

You know, bring them in. You're a long reliever for it. Everybody needs a long reliever, right? Okay, starter went four and them in. You're a long reliever for everybody needs a long reliever. Right. OK, starter went four and a third. You're going to come in, just bridge us, get us to the seventh, eighth inning. You know, and then you get several days off and you work them in that way. And then when the need arises, because it will, you're in the rotation. Problem solving, it's big league hitters.

You're working with big league coaches. Those all seem like very good things for long term development as well. We have you and I know we got to go. But and we didn't prepare you for this one. But I know that you this is something you hear on the radio or in chats or whatever. Somebody in the back end of the top 50 that has a big up arrow on it. Somebody I don't know, like I'm reading like Zero Hope, maybe Briseño. They anywhere in the top 100. I think who could be basically the next Sebastian Walcott, someone that could be

at or near the top of the list a year from now. The other Cheerio. Jesus Maday. Oh, definitely him. He just, he's, I mean, he was so good in the DSL and impressed people. Right. I don't put DSL and impressed people. Right. Right. I don't put DSL guys on the list. Almost ever.

Yeah. People were like, I don't know. That's that is a superstar. I think he's actually in the top 50, but Franklin Arias with the Red Sox, shortstop 19, destroyed the GCI. I think it was actually the GCI, whatever the Florida man league down there. I think he was the MVP of that. 42. I saw him in low A. The ball, I mean, really comes off his bat well, and he can play

shortstop. So just a guy who could like, you told me he was going to be in the top 10 a year from now. Definitely could see that. I am just scrolling through my day. I think that's how he says it. He would definitely be one. Hope gets a lot of love. First of all, he's a crazy athlete, a crazy, crazy athlete. The word on him out of high school, he went to like, he was from a tiny town in Virginia.

The word on him was he couldn't hit. Like, especially if it wasn't straight, he couldn't hit it. Give that kid all the credit in the world. And the Dodgers, by the way, for sticking with him, seeing him a little bit after the draft and saying, we want this guy. He worked. And the pitch recognitions from decisions aren't great,

but they are so much better than the walk and strikeout rates are pretty good. Are pretty good. And it's real power and he runs pretty well. He would definitely be one. I mean, God, if Noble Meyer throws strikes, but that's right. Wait, I had one more and I scrolled kept scrolling kept scrolling and I went right past it. Oh, a little bit of an older guy, but Seaver King who he was for just for folks who don't know 10th overall pick last year, Washington takes him out of Wake Forest.

We was primarily center fielder played some short played some third, but he was a natural shortstop is a natural shortstop. And the Nats said we're putting him out at short. He goes out to low A, Fredericksburg plays short and pro scouts who song, what do you mean he's not a shortstop? No doubt. So he's the rare guy where post-draft I was like, move them up. We have new information now. He looked really good at shortstop. He's a great athlete. He's interesting. He's like a little bit of a bad ball hitter. So I think his chase rates always going to be a little high, but he hits them. And so I'm like, no, we'll let that go for now.

You might have to change that. I mean, it's actually the hardest hit ball I ever saw from him was several inches above the strike zone. And he just like Tomahawk did out to left field at about one Oh eight or so. And that's pretty impressive. You could do that on a pitch that wasn't a strike. He's athletic. He's got a good idea of the strike zone, at least in terms of what to swing at. And he can really play short. He could move up pretty quickly. And he might not be in the,

if I'm right about the shortstop, if everyone's right about the shortstop. Abrams defenses numbers are terrible. He might not be in the meters. Can we ask him when he gets back from the casino? Could he rededicate himself and improve those numbers maybe? I mean, he seems young and has the tools to be good at shortstop. Oh, he definitely does.

Yeah, he should be better. I completely agree with you. And I think like, okay, that's a fair time to question a guy's middle, actually. The last question, and I promise we will let you go, this will not turn into a three hour show, even though I've got plenty of material. CJ Abrams, previously, prior to this, the casino situation, what did you heard about his makeup, work ethic, the things that we do care about and try to figure out?

Because the way they described the incident and reacted to it publicly at least was more of a, okay, we're moving past this. They demoted him. Well, no, they did what they did as far as like the punishment for it, but Davey Martinez talking about it. But that's a big red flag, demoting to Triple A? That's like, we talk about it with Camilo Deval all the time.

Like, you get demoted Triple A after you've done what you've done in the major leagues and you're still like a usable player, like that says something about your makeup. And AAA wasn't playing. They sent him down to like the Florida State League or something, a rookie ball. It was just literally we are taking you off the major league roster. You are in top. That's what it was.

So do you think this is the kind of thing that will be a good wake up call? There's everything you know about CJ Abrams point to a guy that will say, OK, I got to get this together and I'm going to go back out there and keep building on what I've been doing as a big leaguer, because it's a pivotal point for him in his career. I mean, I think this can go a lot of different directions. Last year, he did take a step forward. He's above average with the bat for the first time as a big leaguer.

If he can build on that, this is a guy that gets a nine-figure contract someday, but if he doesn't, this is a guy that's going to be twice traded before he reaches free agency. So I heard what I'm sort of shaking my hand a little bit earlier. Like I heard mild questions of like, is he the hardest worker? A little bit of that in high school, a little bit of that after the trade. He's a player of color. I'm always a little wary when I hear that stuff about players

of color, because I think sometimes that label gets attached to them unfairly, and you know, white guys, scrappy white guys are just considered to work- oh, he plays really hard, he's got a great baseball IQ- ALICE Playing above his athleticism. RILEY Yes! Oh my god, does he wear glasses? He's so- SEAN And I gotta wear my glasses more often.

RILEY Not that I like hearing of a player do something like this, but it's like, okay, that's tangible. That is a judgment. He hit it was judgment call was poor judgment on his part. I think the Nats did the right thing. I cannot imagine them saying, well, now he's not like on the Major League roster because I'll see cutting off your nose to spite your face at that point to you. You sent the message it is on him to change. If he doesn't change, then yeah, he's going to derail what will otherwise be a very lucrative career. I also wonder if they're thinking he's had some real issues defensively that I didn't anticipate

when he was a prospect because he's so athletic and so quick and seemed to be able to play it, but he hasn't looked great so far in the big leagues. I wonder if there was also a lot of talk when he was coming up with the Padres and they had to tease it short. Does Abrams move to center because he's so fast? It's also a possibility at some point, especially if Sivir King really does, yeah, if he takes off and he's a top 50 prospect this time next year and still playing short, it seems like that's within the range of possibilities, at least, and then maybe they do have to think of something with Abrams.

I'm certainly not giving up on Abrams, but that was a bit of an eye-opener. Oh, that's a pretty serious transgression, actually. Yeah, it was the first time I had come across anything that was negative at all about CJ Abrams, but I'm not as plugged in and not hearing from everybody around him. You know, like I heard Carson Williams in high school was like people like that kid's not tough.

He's not that, you know, he's not really, you know, he doesn't really want to learn. I'm like, that all turned out to be wrong. I heard bad makeup on James Wood out of high school. So like a lot of that stuff I take with a grain of salt. When I hear something, and often I hear things I don't print, they're not public. Oh, this kid always you know, drinks too much or whatever parties too much. Like, okay, that's at least there we have something right that is an actual thing that I can point to. Not that I doubt scouts when they say that makeup stuff. But you know, you were getting at

this, you know, probably an hour ago. Those can be pretty wrong. It's extremely subjective. It's very difficult to properly assess that. And we as an industry are going to miss on guys' makeup a lot. So when there is something fairly tangible like that, I wanna cling to it. Cause I'm like, no, actually we have evidence of poor makeup

or at least poor decision-making in a case like Abrams. Poor makeup can mean so many things. That's why you have to, what happened exactly? Let's pull on those threads a bit more. Keith, we appreciate all the time today. We know you're extremely busy. We'll let you get back to those NL orgs you gotta finish up.

We're looking forward to the rest of that series and look forward to catching up with you again later on this season. Yeah, my pleasure. Just like Eno and I, Keith is on the blue sky. KeithLaw.BSky.Social. Eno is EnoSarris.BSky.Social. I decided to go DVR.BSky.Social. That's a lot easier than my wholeky.social, I decided to go DVR.beesky.social,

that's a lot easier than my whole name. If you'd like to check out all of Keith's great work, new stuff that Eno just put out today as a new piece out about stuff, plus actually, gettheditc.com, slash rates and barrels gets you the best deal that we have going right now. Subscribe if you can, smash the like button in this video if you made it to the end,

thanks again for listening, we are back with you on Thursday. Thanks for listening. We are back with you on Thursday. Thanks for listening. Hey everybody, it's Diana Rossini from the Scoop City podcast. It's Super Bowl week and the eyes of the world are on New Orleans to see if the Chiefs can make history or if the Eagles are ready to rain on their parade. Myself, Robert Mays, Derek Claussen, and a whole host of NFL reporters and special guests will be live streaming every day from Radio Row, covering all the buildup to Sunday's showdown.

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