Rates & Barrels - 2025 Starting Pitcher Preview, Part 4

Episode Date: February 3, 2025

Eno and DVR discuss Jack Flaherty's reunion with the Tigers before closing the book on starting pitchers (for now) -- with the fourth installment of their 2025 Starting Pitcher preview. Eno explains the "Yolo Yo-Yo", as the need for ceiling and growth should be balanced with steady veterans as you round out your pitching staff. Rundown 0:59 Jack Flaherty Returns to the Tigers 7:45 ADP Tier 7a -- Nick Lodolo, Jeffrey Springs, Walker Buehler, Ranger & Suárez 22:42 ADP Tier 7a (continued) -- Reese Olson, Michael Wacha, Nestor Cortes, Jackson Jobe, Kutter Crawford & Kumar Rocker 47:50 Looking for Undervalued Depth & Sleepers 1:01:10 The Pirates Might Do It Again with Bubba Chandler 1:13:41 Late SP Whack-a-Mole Follow Eno on Bluesky: @enosarris.bsky.social Follow DVR on Bluesky: @dvr.bsky.social e-mail: [e-mail] Join our Discord: https://discord.gg/FyBa9f3wFe Share your Positional Rankings in the HiveMind Ranks for Starting Pitchers: https://forms.gle/QhdU1UimnejRG1bP6 Subscribe to The Athletic: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels Hosts: Derek VanRiper & Eno Sarris Producer: Brian Smith Executive Producer: Derek VanRiper Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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It's more than that to me. It's a world full of harmonies with chillers. From streaming to shopping, it's on Prime. Dino Sarah's here with you. Position preview season rolls on. It is our extended starting picture preview, part four in the series. We're gonna focus today on pictures going outside the top 250 overall, the late pictures. And even with this, we're still not going to get them all. So if we have pictures that we did not cover

and you'd like us to answer questions about them, you can send the questions through our Discord channel. There's a mailbag specific channel on our Discord. The link to join the server is in the show description. One bit of breaking news before we resume where we left off on part three, Jack Flaherty, back to the Tigers. I think this is one of the few scenarios

that we outlined when we talked about Flareity where I felt kind of good about where he's going. Now my guess is because Flareity pitched so well for the Tigers last year and because Comerica is such a pitcher friendly environment the previous prices on Jack Flareity are probably going to tick up just slightly now that we know where he's pitching in 2025 and 2026

because it is a two year 35 million dollar deal, which also tells us a lot about how the league as a whole valued Jack Flaherty or how much they were maybe concerned about the overall body of work in the face of a phenomenal 2024 season. Yeah, you know, it's not only the nice new park for him, but you know, we still in baseball today still play our division the most, you know, so those offenses in that division are not great for the most part. And you know, so you're thinking, you know, between pitching at home and pitching, you know, in Chicago against the White Sox or in Kansas City against the Royals,

that you're going to like 60 to 70% of his matchups this year. I still won't like the other 30% that much and it will affect my ability to say, Oh yeah, this guy's like a top 40 top 50 pitcher. I prefer on that level that they are kind of What's it? immune to matchups You know I want to be able to say a top 40 pitcher top 50 pitcher plays every day and So I don't know that I'm going to maybe participate as

lustily as some other people right now I have him 54th and I could see him moving ahead of kind of the young guys, Lodolo, Bradley. I see that Lodolo's pick is really, really low and that must be just all innings related because I love his talent. And maybe I have him too high for this innings total. But like, would you take Jack Flaherty or Christopher Sanchez? Probably Flaherty or Christopher Sanchez?

Probably Flaherty though, at this point, knowing where he's gonna pitch. I think previously you may have been able to talk me into Sanchez. But would you rathers by ADP are all over the place. We expressed a lot of optimism about Jared Jones taking another step forward this year. I'm surprised to see Flaherty close to Jared Jones in ADP

because I like Jones a lot more even with this news. I have Jones 37 right now, so he's, yeah, he's 15 picks ahead of Flaherty. I think Jones has been pretty much under drafted throughout the entire early part of draft season though. I guess we have to kind of pull him out of the conversation. I have Sonny Gray at 40. Right, Sonny Gray versus Flaherty is where I was gonna go right

Reason being if I look at the last two weeks of ADP from the NFB C The earliest Flaherty has gone is pick 121 and that's sunny gray's ADP And I think that's sort of like that's where we're happening. Yeah gray versus Flaherty makes sense within that tier You're also looking at Hunter Brown who I think we both like better than both gray and Flaherty makes sense within that tier You're also looking at hunter Brown who I think we both like better than both gray and Flaherty I can speak on behalf of you in this case. That's yeah I have a way way higher than that. Yeah, I even like Zach Gallin a little more than gray I was gonna do the woodwork on Zach Gallin. He sounded he kind of Seems like I could put him in a tier of guys where I think I can get at least 170 innings between between Jones

between Gallen and Sunny Grey and Jack Flaherty. That seems like a tier of veteran guys, maybe not the most upside, but likely to give me mid 3ZRA for 170 innings. So be very useful, especially if you like the yolo yoyo, you could try to figure out how to get Jones and Flaherty. That would be a great pairing. Explain yourself, sir. What is the YOLO yoyo?

Well, it's sort of born a little bit of draft and hold where, let's say you want to have three or four bodies. You really want to have four people who can play every position on the infield, at least three bodies. And what I've noticed is that I want to have somebody who's really boring and can play the position, you know, who just is going to go out there and be out there. JP Crawford is my third shortstop in the draft and hold on doing right now. He's going to play shortstop.

If he's healthy, he's out there. He's not that great, but like he's gonna play. The YOLO yoyo is going to produce a prospect for the next spot. Okay. So I want to, I want to kind of pair floor and ceiling. And I've talked about this. If you do crochet, then you want like, I don't know, Hunter Brown or you want innings. Can you do fromber and then glass now, you know, like that's the yo-yo yo-yo It's an inner Adjustment to what you just did say I just took a lot of injury risks and I want someone who doesn't have a lot Of injury risk. I just took an old boring boring veteran now

I want to get someone that has a lot of ceiling right? So it's sort of like you can't be too obvious about it. Otherwise, the people in the room will start manipulating that. But still, with the amount of rounds, and what I've found is, for the most part, in these rooms, people are mostly concerned with the room in general. Like, oh, am I falling behind on pitching? That sort of idea. But mostly concerned with, what is my team doing?

It's not like we're in an auction room, and you're looking around, and there's money flying. It's more like you've got your window open with your players, you're looking at your queue, you're managing. This is a little bit of a sidebar and I promise it won't take long, but I do find it interesting that in auction settings in particular,

I think you are concerned much more about what's happening around you than I am. And I feel like based on our general personality traits, it's a little bit surprising. I just don't care what everybody else is doing. Well, I thought of it as a perceived weakness. You think you get distracted by it. I think I'm very, no, I think I'm very focused

on my own thing. So I've actually made a concerted effort in recent times, you know, near the end of my run in AL only auction at labor, So I've actually made a concerted effort in recent times, you know, near the end of my run at AL, in AL only auction at labor, I made a concerted effort to like look up and look around. I'm concerned about looking around. That's why you think I do it,

but I don't think I'm very good at it. So I just think it's an element I could add to my game. So. I got you. Okay. Well, we'll get to that in detail at some point. We talked a little auction strategy here in the next few weeks. Let's talk about Nic Lodolo because that's exactly where we left off at part three of our starting picture preview.

We're at the pick 250 marker at this point. This is a group that includes the likes of Nic Lodolo, Jeffrey Springs, Walker Bueller, Ranger Suarez, Riesels, and Michael Walker, Nester Cortez, Jackson Job, Cutter Crawford, and Kumar Rocker. And there is no way all of those names are going to fit on the bottom of the screen if you're watching us on YouTube. So you got the generic two names as bookends

for the beginning and end. Kumar Rocker goes around pick 300 as for reference. So this is really the last cluster inside the top 300 overall for some leagues, 10, 12 team leagues. This is kind of where the last pitchers you're going to draft are going to go. And then, of course, for for deeper, larger leagues, you know, we're going to go another 150 plus picks before we're done in a 15 team or but I like Nick Lodolo a lot. Last three seasons combined, it's got a better strikeout minus walk percentage than Corbin Burns, then Dylan Cease, then Zach Gallin, and then Luis Castillo.

It's just the injuries. That's the only question for me with Nic Lodolo. I think you could easily look at him and say he's a co-ace with Hunter Green. That is an outcome that is possible. Yeah, the park is a factor to put in there, but we've talked about this before. The Reds have had top 10 fantasy starters. Luis Castillo himself was very good in Cincinnati. Johnny Quedo back at his peak.

Hunter Green last year. It's a challenge to pitch there because of the homers, but it's not impossible. And I think Lidolo is good enough to take a massive leap. I think I feel for this pocket of the draft, similar to Nick Lodolo, as I do about Jared Jones a hundred picks earlier. This is a guy that I absolutely want to have on as many teams as possible at this prize, despite the injuries that have slowed him to this point in his big league career.

He's definitely my favorite name in this tier. In fact, the bookends are my favorite name in this tier. In fact, the bookends are my favorite names in this tier. I'll take the beginning and the end of this tier rather than the middle. Could make the case for Kumar over Lodolo just because the stuff was so outlandish when he came up. You know, just a 96 mile-hour fastball with that cool death ball, breaking ball that he has that has a bit of an element of deception to it. So, I think Kumar Rocker, who has more innings this year?

Think it's Lidolo, but it's because with Rocker, especially, it has been a long time since he's been healthy enough to amass a starter's full workload over a season. A few of those things out of his control. I mean, not signed the Mets not signing him the year they drafted him, have him go to Indieball that caused some problems. Twenty twenty covid year, all that stuff. Right. That's all baked in around the injuries too. I have a really difficult time projecting Kumar Rocker's workload total.

And I think the only thing we really saw in the brief time with the Rangers was the inconsistency with fastball command, right? That was the one thing that, it was only 11 innings, that I think maybe gives you some pause within the arsenals. Okay, is that fastball command gonna be average, good, very good, like where is that gonna land? I think if it lands at least at an average sort of level,

then sure, then ceiling innings quality is possible from Kumar Rocker. But that could be the one thing about him that gives me just that little bit of hesitation. The next guy on our list that has, you know, has the name value. And some people I think have been reaching for this idea that Jeffrey springs in Oakland is going to just get back on track from where he was with the Rays before. But I think that's ignoring a couple key factors, which is not the least of which is age.

He's 32. I don't think people would be surprised by that. It took him a really long time to get where he was with Tampa. The best that he ever did was the time that he was throwing the hardest he ever had and that dovetails with the fact that his stuff didn't actually really come back last year. I know the strikeout rate was there, but the underlying stuff was pretty poor. And I think that's why Tampa was happy to trade him. I mean, he was throwing 90.0 in 2024.

And I don't know, even in 2022, when he was pretty good, that was 91.7 when he was really good by peripherals in 2021, that was 93.7. That was sort of half in the pen with a few longer outings. And then it's not Oakland anymore. So I don't know that I love Jeffrey Springs. I'm surprised it's not Oopsie that has the worst one.

It's the bat with a four, five, zero ERA projection for Jeffrey Springs. And I don't know that I'm necessarily arguing with that. Yeah, I think with Springs, one thing I noticed, aside from Velo and stuff not being where it was pre-injury, is that his ERA away from the trop was nearly a run higher for his career. 382 outside of Tampa Bay, 299 at home,

still a 25.5% K rate on the road. It was 28.8% at home. We've talked about how the trop boosted strikeouts throughout that park's existence. It's just something we've seen. I think Springs is fine, but yeah, we're going into the AAA park in Sacramento. It's not the Coliseum, so you don't get the benefit

of a pitcher-friendly home park anymore. I would be very careful with Springs, at least until we see spring training, right? If there's a little more Velo back in spring training, maybe I could get on board. Price isn't ridiculous, but he just doesn't look like the same guy. And there's a lot of innings risk too, because of fluctuating between rolls, the injury. That's normal for this tier, but there's a there are a lot of yellow flags right now. Yeah, and like he's not ever really been a bulk guy.

You know, the most he's ever thrown in a season is that 135 and 2022. Like he had a 112 in the minors. He's been sort of in between the bullpen and starting rotation for most of his career. So, you know, oopsie, putting down 154 like that's depth charty or Jeff charts 133 steamers 154 like I'm like yo No, I I'm not putting that down I would say though for a guy that doesn't have that on the ledger as a big leader It's much more likely to happen with a 32 year old that the team's gonna say, you know, yeah, you're here What are we baby him for? Yes, like if you feel good keep pitching

So, you know a career high in innings isn't out of the question But even his career high is coming in in that 150 range It's not 175 180 and we're worried about the ratios and even with the diminished stuff last year though The K rate was twenty six point one percent in those thirty three innings He's a typical sort of bad fastball, good secondaries guy. One thing that I just want to mention real quick, because I've gotten some people reaching out about this, and we've talked about it a little bit before, but how the park will play in Sacramento.

One thing is we don't really know 100%. With major leaguers in that park, with minor leaguers in that park, it was a kind of a middle of the line PCL park, which is, you know, what happens in these park factor things is you compare it to parks in their league, for the most part. It's really hard to be like, how does Sacramento play against like this thing in the Florida State League? You know what I mean?

Because you don't have players, you kind of use players as they play in that park and other parks. You have to kind of, you have to have players that play in both parks to kind of compare parks so if it's a neutral the PCL park that's possible that it's on the hitter end of parks and no matter what even if it's just Neutral that is not Oakland and I think you sort of alluded to that, you know Don't get the benefit of Oakland anymore. You can say it that way. What if it just plays like in Arizona?

That's still not Oakland. Yeah, yeah. So you could get more innings than expected from Springs, but I think it's coming with an ERA that starts with a four. And I'm still not sure about that K-ray. He was really hittable in the zone last year. Just a lot of questions for me. Walker Bueller, also a lot of questions here, right?

I mean, do you trust what we saw in the postseason or even in the end of September? How much was that weather rated? Yeah, we had a lot of details about that, with the conditions at Citi Field in particular when he was pitching against the Mets, how that may have been working in his favor. Last season, Walker Bueller had a minus eight run value

on his four seam fastball. He was still averaging 95 with that pitch, but we know the Red Sox are OK with scrapping four seamers if they don't think it's salvageable. And Bueller does have a wide arsenal right now. So I think you have to go into it wondering what things the Red Sox might change about his approach. And then you have to kind of take another step and say, all right, what kind of workload do I trust from Buhler as a guy that's had two Tommy

Johns and you know has maybe entered that health grade F status for the next couple of seasons even though he did make it back and get to 75 innings in the regular season plus the postseason stuff. What are the health ramifications of dialing that fastball down even more so that he's maybe 25% fastball, 25% cutter, 25% curveball, and then between the sinker and slider, like another 25%, like that's sort of where he's trending.

What's gonna be the impact on his arm of basically spinning the ball every time? What's that going to do for his strikeout rate? Obviously his strikeout rate back before enforcement was in the high twenties and that was, you know, that was at his best was four seam really had ride and he could really command that curveball. When the weather conditions are right, he can command the curveball and the four seam has a little more life than usual. And that's what we saw in the playoffs. are right, he can command the curveball and the fore seam has a little more life than usual. And that's what we saw in the playoffs. I mean, that was a combination of tailwind and lower temperatures that helped him kind

of get the most out of his arsenal. I mean, what's he going to have in Boston though? I mean, maybe he'll have a good spring. I just don't know that. I mean, I mean a good sort of April in Boston, but I don't know what it's going to look like all season long. And yeah, I just don't know what it's going to look like all season long. And yeah, I just don't trust the innings either. So he's an okay guy, but you know, I'd rather, you know, if you're in this shopping in this

in this bin and you're looking at these guys and you're saying, oh, either I want innings and I think there's some names in here that you can, you can depend on innings more like Cutter Crawford. I think, you know, is is going to have more innings. Maybe Michael Wacha, Ranger Suarez, those are guys I would depend on the innings more than I would with Walker, Lodolo and Springs. Or you bet on the stuff. And if you're going to bet on the stuff, I think you'd bet on Lodolo or Kumar Rocker

or like Jackson Jobe, right? So that's the yolo Yo-Yo a little bit, is the idea of like, what am I looking for here? Is it bulk or is it upside? Walker Bueller's kind of a mat on both. Yeah, I think he falls more into the Ranger Suarez, Nester Cortez bucket, sort of the. Has a job and.

The recoveries from the Nick Lidolo Yolo Yo-Yo, like you're trying to get someone that is safer. Bueller, I probably would put in the safer bucket, but the health grades make that a little bit challenging. I think the Rangers Suarez season a year ago was really bizarre. It was phenomenal early and the overall results were pretty good. Slight bump to the K rate, best full season walk rate we've seen from him in Philadelphia so far. He can use the managed home runs effectively for a guy that's in a park that boosts homers.

So I think what you see is pretty real at this point. Wow, I didn't see his second half was so bad. I had zero shares, so I didn't ride, I was on that ride. I had one Ranger Suarez team, and it was an auto new team that was playing for the future. So he was bundled in a trade and long gone before that happened. Before the 565 ERA in the second half with the 311 average and a 490 slugging against.

Yeah, and it's interesting, though, because if you look at the projection sets, and they're growing, they're expanding. If you don't feel good about oopsie because it's new, good news. That's a full shelf of projections right now. Pick the one you like. Most of them are kind of in the 3.5 to 3.6 range for the ERA, mid 120s for the whip. Oopsie is at a 4 ERA and I think the bat's also at a 3era and I think the bats also to 397 Oopsie in the battle know though high on whip to like where are you at in the projections? That's actually a pretty big spread. It doesn't matter though. These are all pretty good projections. I change my mind

I think he's my favorite in the tier favorite of the the older safer guys Or I think maybe just my favorite like all around like if the worst projections for a four like I think he's most likely gonna beat four I mean that's what the projections different productions that's are saying and the worst case scenario is a four like and it's probably a four with 150 plus innings like are we sure that anybody else in this tour tier will do that it's almost like I just think it's such good floor that at least it's the best of the floor guys will you give me that it's the best of the floor guys in that tier. So you're comparing let's say Ranger Ranger Suarez to Michael Wacha Nester Cortez

Who else we're gonna throw in that bin Bueller technically, but you know, maybe you cut her I mean cutter at this point is not cut across ID. Yeah, but he's what she's gonna give you innings pop Yeah, I'll take them over. I'll take them over the rest of that group. Biggest workload of the last three seasons in the regular season goes to Ranger at 431, Waka not far behind at 428, Nestor-Cortez a little further behind at 396, and then Cutter-Croft at 390. So yeah, they're all pretty similar in that regard. If you look at the skills, Nestor Cortez wins on K minus BB percentage,

also has the lowest whip of the group, a 343 ERA. He had an injury. I mean, we saw him, he came back and pitched in the playoffs, but it was short, right? Just like one inning at a time. He got to 174 in a third innings in the regular season. That's a new career high in the big leagues. It looked pretty good overall last year.

The move out of Yankee Stadium, we talked about this when the trade with the Brewers happened, it should help him, but I think his home run rate at home was lower than on the road for his career, if I have that right. That was off the top of my head. So let's verify that because that seems like an absurd, absurd nugget. 48 homers on the road, yeah, his road, Nester Cortez's road home run rate is higher for his career than his home home run rate, which you just would not expect when Yankee Stadium is your home park. Yeah, but I think, you know, to some extent he's leaving like it's not only park as I was trying to bring up with the division earlier, like it's also division.

I do think and I'm not trying to like, you know, talk crap on the centrals all the time. I'm just saying like he's going to face worse offenses. Yeah, that's fair. And I do think the usage will be careful. I think it's going to depend a lot on the state of the bullpen. Look at the career third time through the order penalty, the split on Nester Cortez, right? First time to the order, 246 ERA. Second time through 339.

Third time through 625. That's a deep Milwaukee bullpen every single year. We've seen them manage it for a long time that way So I wonder if innings could Ashby or your rebate coming out in the fifth six I mean, yeah, they're always they always have guys that can chew up those innings, right? So I wonder if that's part of what's gonna keep the ratios tidy from Nester Cortez, but maybe keep the win total down Mm-hmm. Keep the win total down. Keep the win total down, keep the end of the switch down a little bit.

Would you believe if I looked at the third time through the order splits for everybody in this group, like and we looked at it over three years, would that do anything for you? Would you be like, oh okay, that's a reason to take one of these guys over the other. I wonder if Waka or Suarez might be better in that split.

Yeah, I think it would be how they correlated with the depth of arsenal. I did think that Cortez had a wider arsenal. He's basically a three-pitch pitcher and two of them are fastballs so he's a fastball cutter-slider basically. The change goes in and out. Ranger Suarez has the best. Waka is the cutter of the three. He's the best. Yeah, 385 ERA for his career third time through the order. Waka's a best. Has the best of the three. He's the best. Yeah, 385 ERA for his career, third time through the order.

Waka's five, 508. Curve, change, sinker, cutter. Waka is fastball, sinker, I'm not looking, but fastball, sinker, change, cutter. Maybe he's been thrown a curve. I would say Waka has the biggest arsenal, but also maybe the worst stuff. And maybe the worst injury risk.

If we're talking about cumulative stuff over his career. But let's talk about Walker for a second because something has changed. Maybe it is the depth of the arsenal that's enabled him to do it. Where three different teams in the last three years, this time he's staying in Kansas City, which we know is a nice picture friendly environment. ERA has been under 3-5 for three different teams. The Red Sox, the Padres, and now most recently with the Royals.

The Whips always been good. Changes always been phenomenal. He's lowed them, he's lowed them. Yeah, I just don't think you're gonna find a lot of people that say go get Michael Walker, and for his career, I think we liked him earlier in his career, because I kept looking at him and saying, okay, this should work, this should work, this should work.

There were struggles, there were injuries, everything. Everything you could imagine. He used to be 95 miles an hour at the fastball with the elite change up. You were just like, this is definitely gonna work. And then he was a little bit like the Gosman thing where it was like the breaking ball was never there for him. But I think at this point,

he's just found the passable cutter that is not great, but it's just enough for him to throw something else. And he throws the change-up against, he can change it right on right, you know, because it's so elite, he can do that. So he does a lot of same-handed change-ups, but the Sierra for him for the last three years is like a 4-3 over that same timeframe, where he's been basically a 3-3 ERA. So that's why the models are all like, no, run away, run away. But I think

I would, for the bulk options, I think I would have it Ranger, Cortez, Waka, Cutter. I think I'm pretty much in agreement with that entire ranking right now. And there's something that a few of these guys do. So before the show I was messaging you saying, you know, we have barrels for hitters. Hard hit balls, optimal angles that do damage. We don't really have a great catch all metric. We have a bunch of things that kind of look at weak contact and like none of them are perfect for describing

or showing us the pitchers that are. You've got pitchers, got pictures with ICR. They have ICR over there. There's, you know, there's soft contact percentage. There's, you know, there's there's different things you can look at that kind of drive to this. But I think this started to bother me when we talked about Jose Barrios and how he's been better than expected each of

the last two seasons relative to K-Rate and the baseline stuff we look at. And there's an explanation for it, right? It's what's happening on Balls and Play. And when you watch guys who are not necessarily electric, sometimes they're wide arsenal guys, sometimes they're good change-up guys, a few different things that can put you on this list, you have these guys that are really good at getting poor contact. You can do a stat-cast query for all different types of poorly hit balls.

So I just ran that. I just want to look at the leaderboard, who had the most poorly hit balls that were turned into outs in 2024. Right. And there's names you'd expect to be on there. Number one is Seth Lugo. Yeah, wide arsenal guy doesn't doesn't have a ton of strikeouts, but definitely keeps hitters guessing. You'll find guys that are high ground ball guys, Logan Webb is number 2,

Corbin Burns is that Cutter, not surprisingly he's number 3. But how'd they do that guys? Are all over this list. Tyler Anderson is 4th. J.P. Sears is 6th. Jose Barrios, there he is, he's 8th. Zach Efflin,, he's tenth. There's Christopher Sanchez at 11. Luis Severino's kind of one of these guys now. He's 13th. Carter Crawford, 14th. Miles Michaelis, 16th. Jameson Tyon, 17th.

Michael Walker is 22nd on this list, right? So I think that's largely a skill, like being able to induce batted balls that frequently turn into outs, because you're getting lazy fly balls, you're getting pop-ups on the infield, right? You're getting stuff that's just not squared up and I think the problem that you've been reminded me of is it's not very predictive, right? It's very hard to find an accumulative

number for this ability that is predictive. Like elements of it can be predictive, but in its totality it's not very predictive. There are causes for these things that are predictive. So stuff and command both produce softer hits. And the way you can see this is if you look at a heat map of exit velocities, you know, across the plate, what you'll find is the hard hit balls are in the middle, you know, and all the soft hit balls are on the edges of the strike zone. And if you've got good stuff,

what you'll find is that, as we've said before with Oopsie, that the stuff projections will, the stuff will affect the projections of BABIP and stuff. Certain shapes create ground balls and certain shapes create softer outcomes. That's why when you look at that list, you see both. You see the guys who got there by nibbling and then you see guys who got there with excellent stuff.

And that's why it's hard to know which is better, but we know that stuff is more sticky year to year than command. The trick of looking at that leaderboard is to kind of figure out who's doing it in a way that they can do it again next year. And I think just the career of Tyler Anderson should tell you a little bit about how you know the worst case scenarios for like a guy like Michael Walker which is oh you know he's with the Giants a 4-3 ERA that's all right the next year he bounced around 4-5 ERA he's let go by a team then the Dodgers sign him and the Dodgers are so smart sorry they got a 2-5-7 of him, but then he goes the angels and the angels

dumb so he's got a 543 but no he stayed with the angels and now he has a 381 ERA. So that's just the sort of bouncing around that can happen when you are shopping in the low stuff high command group. It's just going to go in and out. Yeah, you have a wider range of outcomes, but I think what happens is, I think this is just a bias against these guys, because the strikeout rates are often lower, we look at them and say, I only see the worst case scenarios. Well, the best case scenario could happen, and even the median outcome is pretty good

for guys like this, if the right pieces are in place. I think this is one of those searches I'm going to come back to a lot when I'm struggling with a particular pitcher. Like, why is this working? Oh, okay, yeah, Jose Barrillo's last three seasons, seventh in poorly hit balls that were turned out. Makes sense. When you get to three seasons in a row, though,

you're really like, man, seems like he's got this, you know? Seems like he knows the skill, he knows what he's doing. At the very least, there's more to look into. It's more of a, wait, don't dismiss this, there could be something happening here, and if you trust that, then continue. It's work from Alex Chamberlain on this, on this, on the stickiness of it. So, you know, if you want to look up Alex Chamberlain and Soft Contact, there's a bunch of cool stuff he's written about and he thinks that is for sure there I think if you asked him but he also knows that he's

not sure how largely effective is and how sticky it is because he's been chasing this for a while but he's got great work on it so if you want to read more about it. Yeah I guess if I were in the position of needing innings and in charge of a major league team and I knew that the Arizona Diamondbacks were going to pay a large share of the salary anyway, I might actually acquire Jordan Montgomery for those innings because of this conversation. If I did.

I'm really surprised the A's haven't yet or, you know. That's like. It's like other A's guy. I just feel like Jordan Montgomery is like, you know, if yeah, if he's going to be free, like he or not free, but if they're going to pay for half it, like this is the type of pitcher that we're talking about that Tyler Anderson pitch. I would love to give a one year and $10 million deal to I might even go to if it's 115 is

the going rate. Like, would you rather have, you know, one of those guys or, you know, like a max shirts, like a really old guy, you know, near the end. I think in some cases you make the, you say, I'd rather buy the innings. I'd rather buy the young guy that could go either way rather than the old guy who might be good when he's in. But like, I don't know if I could,

what do we get from him? You might not even get good when he's in, you know? Herlinder's last 90 innings weren't good. It might just depend on whether I had someone who I felt was going to be contributing at the end of the year, like a top prospect that was maybe up to double A, and like, okay, this guy might be ready by the end of the year.

As that guy moves out, this guy moves in. Right, if I didn't have someone like that, someone who I think has good enough stuff to get out in October, then maybe I'd gravitate more toward the Scherzer or Verlander some soft skills having been there before might be a little better than guys that haven't done it and Montgomery has Montgomery's been the Been one of those surprise pop-up guys in October. I would say it's rare for a one-year 15 million dollar guy to Start a playoff game for you. Yeah, it's probably pretty rare Well to verify that but it seems I'm at least buying the Primus at the very least.

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Visit BetterHelp.com today to get 10% off your first month That's better help Help.com All right two Tigers in this group that we should get to Reese Olsen built back up in September after an injury pitched well And a couple of appearances in the ALDS against Cleveland I think the signs of health at the end of the year after that two-month absence are very encouraging Didn't really see any ugly lefty righty splits or home road splits so far in the career of the year after that two month absence are very encouraging. Didn't really see any ugly lefty righty splits or home road splits so far in the career of Reese Olsen.

So how does he fit into this late, after pick 250 bucket for you? Is he a target or is he just someone who is okay because you can at least stream him at home? It might surprise you that Reese Olsen's sinker was above average by Stuff Plus last year. It will definitely surprise me because it was not previously graded as such. It was not and well I mean the new Stuff Plus is capturing this because it was in 2023

but this is the new Stuff Plus and it likes the Sinker which is cool because the curve and change are good. You know, he's got like a good curve change slider situation. So he's a wide arsenal guy with a slightly better fastball at this point in his career. I think as he gets older, it's going to be a worse fastball. That's just what it is. And I think he has more soft skills

than maybe we want to give him credit for. I think coming up, the idea was that Rhys Olsen had really bad command. I'm looking at his prospects report, and he got a 30 for future and present command. But that really hasn't been the case in the major leagues. I don't know what maybe his fastball command is 30 and that's what everyone's looking at, but maybe he can throw a slider or curve for a strike when he needs it. I don't know what it is for those that have watched him more often. When I watch him, I see a guy, I wouldn't say that it looks terrible command wise, and I see a guy with a wide arsenal, so I'm

more likely to put him in sort of the wide arsenal good command bucket. But maybe the command isn't that great, but maybe the stuff is better than people say. You know, he's a 94-3 on the fastball and the sinker rates above average. I think there's a lot to like here. In fact, you know, if you are in the unenviable position of needing both innings and upside from this pick, like he's kind of the hybrid in here, right? I think so. He's probably gonna give you 140 innings because he did 143 in 2023 and 117 last year

between the minors and the majors. So I think you can comfortably say 140 plus, which you can't say about a lot of these guys. And I think you can comfortably say mid-3s ERA, which you can't say about these guys. And I think you can comfortably say with a guy who's 25 years old and has three good secondaries and a surprising sinker that there might be, you know, a surprising season in him or a really good season where he strikes out 23, 24% of the guys he sees has a three, three, five ERA and puts in 170 innings. Like that's a possibility for him.

That's not even outlandish. And that might be outlandish for a lot of the guys on this tier. So he's kind of a middle of the road pick for this tier, but not not in a terrible way. I do like him here for sure. Olsen got to a hundred and forty and a third innings in twenty twenty three. So I'm using that as sort of my my launching point for what's possible. Innings wise, I think the highest total I see next to his name on fan graphs is a one forty six.

I think that's a tad low. It's a little like the brand andatt effect where if the inputs there are lower than you like, you're getting value relative to what's gonna come out of the auction calculator regardless of the projections that you like. So yeah, two thumbs up on Reese Olson, definitely like him. And here's my bold prediction,

which I don't think I've made any of these yet so far. Well, I'll make a bold prediction about Reese Olson. I think Reese Olson returns more value than Jack Flaherty this year. Wow. So there you go. Well, he's a lot cheaper. He's a lot cheaper, but even just straight up

five by five auction calculator. Oh, just doesn't matter about price either. At the end of the season, I think Reese Olson ends up earning more because that builds in a hedge against Flaherty's bad track record of health and the stuff may be backing up a little bit for him. So there you go.

One thing I want to point out that contract a lot of times the contract we've talked about this before, like sometimes the the the major leagues will give us clues like the way that he was being treated free agency gives us a clue about maybe we shouldn't treat him as an ace or whatever. You know what I mean? Because he's not being treated as such. Now look at the contract. What's interesting to me about the contract is it's a one-year 25 million dollar deal with a 10 million dollar player option There's a believe it was and so why does there's a 10 million dollar player option in it in case it gets hurt and he Thinks that's enough of a possibility that he put that in

Right and you know 35 million guaranteed if you are hurt is not a bad outcome Even though it's less than the total deal that clarity was probably hoping for when free agency started So maybe it's a win-win. Maybe it stays healthy. Maybe it keeps most the stuff gains from last year We talked about the two breaking balls Maybe giving them a path to use that fastball less But all that's to say like I'm actually pretty optimistic about a resource. And for a lot of the reasons you mentioned, they're done different parts of the career. You know, it's like, yeah, the way up or the way down. You know, I'll take the guy on the way up.

The other tiger in the group, you mentioned them in passing before Jackson Job. Clearly a lot of faith in that organization that Jackson Job can be very, very good. Look at the usage in the postseason with that high leverage opportunity right out of the box. And this is where I would be more cautious with the projection, because there are a lot of injuries on the ledger for Job, given his age and where he's at in his career. I don't think you're going to get a massive workload this year.

Even with that, maybe the numbers you're seeing in front of you are a tad low. I think he's more 125, 130. We see this a lot with prospect pitchers. It's just a question of being able to manage someone like that on your roster. How many other high risk innings shortfalls do you have? If you stack a bunch of Dodgers and then you circle around and get Jackson Job at a nice price on your team, are you in a position where you're just scrambling for pitching because maybe they're managing Job carefully around breaks in the schedule, days off, all-star break, things teams usually do. I just think there's a few ways they can handle it.

I mean, they could, with the Flaherty reunion, maybe look at their depth right now, if everyone's healthy and say, hey, we got Scoobble back, we just re-upped Flaherty,, maybe look at their depth right now. If everyone's healthy and say, hey, we got Scoobble back, we just re-upped Flaherty, we got Olsen, we added Cobb, Casey Mize's role is to be determined, we have Cater Montero, we got a few other guys that could chew up some bulk. Maybe Joe does a Spencer Strider sort of thing

where he starts the year in the pen, works two, maybe three innings at a time initially, and then eventually takes over a rotation spot. I mean, there's a few different ways they could shape it. So what are you doing with Job at this price? I'm in and what I'm trying to do with my rosters is create the ability to be in and not specifically for Job.

But if you look at like Job, Lodolo and Rocker in this tier, I think if the 95th percentile outcome, the very best situation is better than anybody else. Like they're the kind of guys who could just legit break out and just give us a 310 ERA with a 10 K9, you know, for 140 innings. That's possible for all three of those guys. And I think that would be a huge breakout and probably be worth

even more than like a three, seven era from results and with an eight K9 in 150 innings. Right. Probably because then you get the replacement when he's not pitching. As long as we have a clear indicator of like a week where he's not going to start. You can replace that spot in your roster and in your lineup. So yeah. And you have to be conservative early to do this because if you had been taking injury risks and you've been taking all these sort of exciting prospects, then now you have to

take Reese Olson in this tier. Whereas Jackson Jobe has four pitches, including his fastball that are above average by stuff plus has a great projection. And yes, obviously the questions that you bring up are legit questions about when he'll make his debut. What will it take to, to, to get him in there? I will say that between Alex Cobb and Jack Flaherty, you know, being ahead of him, there are two pretty easy pathways in.

And Casey Mize himself may not be in the rotation to start the year if Cater Montero, Jackson Joe beats him. I think the easiest thing is Casey Mize and Alex Cobb are in the rotation, Joe and Montero are not. And that still is a fairly easy pathway to getting back in. Cobb is hurt all the time. He's got all sorts of injuries and Mize has frankly been underwhelming. So there's injury and poor play that can get him out of the rotation. So Job's somebody I would call a premium six starter. And if you can have room for that on your roster then it's then it's a great thing to do

yeah he's definitely on that list of hey you did a good job avoiding risk early definitely make a point to target Jackson Job in this price range if we get some kind of confirmation that he's a starter out of the box he's not going to be going this late so you have to keep that in mind too if you're in these early drafts. Cutter Crawford's the last guy in this group we haven't talked about yet. Sneaky Good in the whip category, really does a good job limiting free passes, keeps the walk rate around 6%. Homer problems have kept the ERA above four

each of the last two seasons. Big time bulk last year, really making the full time move to start for the Red Sox. I think the model, the previous iteration of the model anyway liked him as someone with three above average pitches and above average location plus. has that changed in the revision? I don't think so. You know, the thing that while I'm looking, I think the thing that has really stuck it stuck out for me with him is that he's had a really hard time in Fenway. Now this last year was his best

splits. He was a home 440 and a way 432. But for his career with Fenway in the mix, he has been a 506 ERA guy at home and a 406 on the road. So he's kind of one of those guys in daily leagues or even in weekly leagues if you can kind of massage what kind of teams he matches up against at home, who he sees at home, if you can just limit how often you even use him at home, I think he's a better pitcher for you. But the sweeper is above average, the fore seam is above average, the splitter is above

average, and the cutter, which he puts his name on, is only a 96 by Stuff Plus. But I don't know. It's a good pitch. It's like, like, if you just call that his fastball, wouldn't you say that's a pretty good pitch 88 on the knuckle curve. So he's kind of sweeper cutter slider for seam. Everything's a little bit hard. Maybe that's why the home run rate is up a little bit.

It's like, no one really, I think worries about his curveball and the splitter has never been really a pitch for him. So if everything's fastball, cutter, slider, you know, it's all in a certain velocity band and that might cause him some problems. I don't know, I used to think, yeah, oh this guy's gonna break out this guy's gonna break out more. I'm starting at 28 with you know 392 innings under his belt and oopsie projection of a 421 ERA. Like I kind of think he's more in he should almost be and we have been ranking him among the sort of oatmeal-y I need innings group. Right. Maybe of that group there's still

a glimmer of hope because of less experience as a starter. Something clicks, he finds something a little slower to add to the arsenal that throws off timing but it's not easy and obvious to see it happening at this point for Cutter Crawford. Looks useful where he's going but not necessarily who's being under drafted at the current price. Alright, we made it. We're going beyond pick 250 now, beyond pick 300 even. You put together some really interesting boards for this part of the show, and you're just looking for value, right?

You're looking for guys that are overlooked for one reason or another. So this one we're gonna put on the screen on YouTube. Pictures available after pick 250. So some of the names we just talked about are included here. PPERA projection below four. The first name on the list is one of the next guys that we haven just talked about are included here. PPERA projection below four. The first name on the list is one of the next guys that we haven't talked about yet, Clay Holmes,

but he's making that move from the bullpen to the starting rotation for the Mets. And I have no good sense at the moment of how that's really going to go. I'm slightly optimistic, but I don't know. I don't know if it's gonna happen quickly. I don't know if it's going to happen quickly. I don't know if it's going to be a month of adjusting before it starts to work for him in May, but he really does pop on this board. Yeah, I mean, I think, you know, the stuff plus being so

dark green and so ahead of everybody else is, you know, related to the fact that that came in reliever innings and that's probably going to affect his projection too. So it's hard to take that you know 3-3 ERA projection and take it to the bank. I do like the situation with the Park. I think that he can probably get to 110-111 innings. He's always been kind of a bulky reliever. The health has been, it's, it's better health, you know, than even Ronaldo Lopez or Jordan Hicks had before they made this decision. In terms of Arsenal, he doesn't really have the fastball to get both lefties and righties out, but the talk has been that he's going to come to camp with a

cutter and a cutter or a sinker. And so, I mean, a cutter or a, a foreseen. So both of these things he's thrown in small samples before. And if he just finds a way to dial those into even around average territory, then he's going to be a guy with a plus sinker and a, and two plus breaking balls and a good enough forcing. I think it's all there. I like it.

And I think this is the only conversion that I really care about this year because Griffin Jackson is the conversions off the table Nate Pearson is maybe gonna convert But it's always been an innings problem, and I think they needed more in the pen anyway Jeff Hoffman the injury stuff comes out you know and I think that the Blue Jays needed more in the bullpen anyway either too So this is really the everybody wants to know who are the next you know, Rinaldo Lopez's it's clay Holmes And there's really not another one this year I don't think you were gonna have three or four every year that work out in this group

Kumar rocker is next with that beautiful three three eRA projection. Kyle Bradish is here. I mean, he's got a great projection It's just a question of how many innings you get from a guy returning off of Tommy John Ben Brown is one of my favorite late draft and holds and dynasty acquisitions. And if they, if they trade for Dylan Cease, you know, if they trade back for Dylan Cease, that would be kind of funny. I think it might cost them somebody like Ben Brown. And I think that Ben Brown would be a better rotation option in the back end than a lot of the guys they have in San Diego.

So, you know, Ben Brown goes back to San Diego. He's a starter right away. Reese Olson is next on that list. David Festa is a sixth starter, fifth starter. He's, he's right there. Is it him versus Simeon Woods Richardson for the last spot kind of right now? Or you think he's firmly in? I mean, I think he's got a spot.

Even if Woods Richardson's in, I Pablo Lopez, obviously he's got a spot even if woods Richardson's in I Pablo Lopez obviously is like the opening day starter, right? As long as he's still there. He's not traded Joe Ryan of health He's the two over three but then Festa versus Zebby Matthews versus Semyon woods Richardson versus paddock for two spots That's what it comes down to you. I think they've seen enough of Chris paddock as a starter Yeah, if they trade for cease or something then Paddock is gonna be in the package. Although I get that reunion, I don't know. Back to San Diego, sure. Yeah, Zebi's on this list.

You know, the projection, the OPC projection really likes him. I'm going to list now some of my favorite draft and holds, and I may not give each one equal shrift because I'm an open book, and I'm in the middle of drafts Osvaldo Bido, I love you Edward Cabrera. Yes, Joey Cantillo. Yes, Sean Burke. Yes Grant Holmes we just gave him a resounding. Yes, Nester Cortez is on this list Jordan Hicks Do it again. Yeah, maybe maybe a little more

this list. Jordan Hicks? I don't know. Do it again. Yeah, maybe maybe a little more. What if you only get a half season out of him again this time? Who cares? What if you get 80 great innings and you shut him down after that? I don't care. The Dolos on this list. Matthew Boyd is really boring, but, you know, has a three nine six. All right. You know, what we found out about Wrigley was it's really hard for righties to hit the ball out of Wrigley. Esau Parade is here is here on line two.

Yeah, Frankie Montas, boring, but in the way of Matthew Boyd going to a good park for his skills, I think he's fine. Kyle Harrison in that good park. I'm a little bit less excited about this group, but I have shares of all these guys. Luis Severino, Jack Leiter to finish. Jack Leiter, I think, deserves to be almost in the Jackson Job discussion. Of course, of course, he's a lot cheaper. And so if you missed out on Jackson Job, but you still want to capture a fifth, sixth starter with that kind of stuff based upside, Jack Leiter should be on your list. I think I came to a conclusion looking at that board that Reid Detmer debt markets is one of those just awful 2024 results, but

even the projections just sort of blindly tell you to go ahead and, you know, draft read debt. Merse late. I think I'm at the point. I don't know. I just don't want to give up on him in deep leagues because the home run rate shouldn't be as bad as it was last year. It was actually the best Sierra we've seen from him so far. And 77, even though the era was almost three runs higher, it's ugly. We've seen guys do this before, though, hit the worst possible projection. It doesn't have to be stuff. Plus, you can just bet on the strikeout rate like 26 percent in twenty twenty three, twenty seven point nine last year.

That's good. That is a good strikeout rate. But bet on that if you bet on anything. From how it looks by results, it reminds me of how bad David Peterson was in 2023 and look what he did coming back. And I think that has better stuff than the David Peterson does. Yeah, for some reason, something about Peterson that I don't like, I don't know what it is. I think the command or something. But read that MERS, the curve ball is above average in new stuff plus

the four seam is at 96, which sounds bad. It's not that bad. It's, you know, he's right there with Zach Gallin and who else has a four seam? Nick Nostrini, Grant Anderson. I mean, it's not the worst. Other people have made it with a 96 stuff plus on the four seam.

The change up is 94. It's not, it's not good. made it with a 96 stuff less on the four seam. The change up is 94, it's not good. The sweeper is a 130 for him. And then he has the regular slider, which is a 120. So he's a good breaking ball guy. And maybe between the four seam slider and sweeper, he just maybe throws some sweepers to lefties, or maybe that's why he did it, and he needs to stop throwing sweepers to lefties.

But whatever it is, like there's enough there when somebody can spin the ball really well, I'm gonna be interested I noticed Mitch Keller goes in this range. His word cloud just got bigger again lifetime achievement award here on rates I can't tell him what to do because he has so many pitches and they're all pretty good and You know the command doesn't look that as bad as it did maybe early in his career but maybe is better now I don't know what it is like he's he's I would love to like take him and be like start him at home but like that doesn't work either so I think he's like a deep league pitcher where you just start him every time and at the end of the season you're like

well that was useful and fine but if you're trying to be fine with him and stream him or use him some, he had a 308 home ERA and a 548 away. So I guess you could do that. But that's just for last year, for his career, he has a 401 at home, 520. So you could make the case where Keller is a good start at home. And you just really careful about him away.

I think that's the baseline usage right now. And going this late, you can live with that if that's all you do for when you're actually going to throw him into your lineup. I actually find that, as a side real quick, I find this is a good draft and hold strategy. Take your Reese Olsen, Mitch Keller types and have options that are in major league rotations that

are in good parks on your bench. And then what you can do is, oh, I'm starting him this week. I'm starting Keller this week. I'm starting that guy this way. I'm Edward Cabrera next week. You know, like that kind of, you can just play around with it and you give yourself options. It's better than taking prospects that may not give you any options. I do think with Keller, he's another guy that pops on the three year poor quality of contact turn into out leaderboard that needs a name but he's 11th in terms of multiple fastballs as a way that you can get on that list I think because everyone thinks that you know you're fasting your fourth seems coming but no actually it's a cutter or the sinker he's really good at the three

fastball thing. It's stupid but I think there's still a year where Mitch Keller is gonna just throw a ton of innings with the best ratios we've ever seen. I think it's still a possibility, and because of the bulk, the K-rate might not be that much of a problem. I kinda like Mitch Keller as a boring oatmeal-y. I don't think he's that different than the likes of Ranger,

Nestor Cortez, and the guys we talked about in that last 250 to 300 range. I think Keller belongs in that same conversation. He fits the bill. If you miss out there, if you're going ceiling instead, you're going after Jackson Job, good news. Mitch Keller is still sitting there for you a couple rounds later and you can find the boring innings that you need and you might be pleasantly surprised. I know we've been burned many, many times but hey me less than other people like I've been a

little more cautious in recent years with Mitch Keller. Is Merrill Kelly the same kind of guy same initials so I assume that put him in the exact same folder. I think he's a little bit more on the kind of Tyler Anderson grouping than people want to admit. He's just a guy that has a good arsenal with some good effect to it, and sometimes the command goes and comes, and the way that you can see it manifest for Merrill Kelly is when the home run rate is big, he is bad,

and when the home run rate is little, he is good. It's pretty basic, but it works. I mean, the Sier's for him have been remarkably steady right around four. So, you know, he deserves a four, but in the years, in the last three years, he deserves a four ERA and he's had a 337, a 329, and a 403. So it's a guy that you would take and hope for,

the reason that he doesn't pop as much in the kind of boring veteran queries and stuff is that he only had 73 innings and he's coming off of injury. So if I could say, oh, I'm definitely getting 175 innings from him this year and he's gonna have a Sierra around four and his ERA is either gonna be like three, five, or it's gonna be four, one, I would buy that in a lot of cases.

It is similar to Mitch Keller in that he's going, he's like projectable and he's not gonna be too bad, he's not gonna be too good and the problem is that I believe in Mitch Keller's innings a lot more. That's probably why they're ADP neighbors though at this point because of the similarities that we see in those two guys. Matthew Boyd, more Ks maybe than those options

but also I feel like more risk because of injuries. Yeah. So I'd be a little careful there. Eric Fetty, probably, I don't know, is he gonna stay in St. Louis all year? Maybe, I mean, it's a walk year, because it was a two year, $15 million deal that brought him back from the KBO.

I think there's no way that he stays there, but I, you know, and they also did some weird, they did some weird mucking with his mix when he got there and he was a little bit worse with them oops But you know, it's it's a nice home park to keep those he's not a great fastball, you know good secondaries I think he absolutely belongs in the sort of Merrill Kelly bucket more innings than Merrill Kelly So I'll take him over Merrill Kelly and if you're worried about him being traded out, I think he will be traded out,

but would you take value from a pick at this point up until August and then not know where he goes and maybe even drop him or not using that much after the trade deadline? I think he'd be all right. It possibly ends up on a better team, so maybe that ends up working out okay. So I think Feddy belongs in that same

sort of cluster as well. I like that the Pirates do have another prospect on the way in here. And if you miss out on Jackson Job, is Bubba Chandler a nice fallback option for you a couple of rounds later? Because it seems like Bubba Chandler's gonna get the bulk of his innings in Pittsburgh,

even if his season begins back at triple A. I mean, it's a little bit like Jared Jones, where, you know, once you get to 119 innings in the minor leagues, and they were all between double A and triple A, then it's pretty obvious that there's only one place to go, right? And he dominated even more than Jared Jones, had better walk rates, has better command than Jared Jones has you know similar maybe Upside in terms of stuff and I'm gonna take the under on all of his projections. I know that they're supposed to be conservative because he's never played in the big leagues But four or five era projection for him is not what I'm expecting

I'm expecting at least a Jared Jones level thing where he comes in, dominates, and maybe there's an adjustment back, and maybe there's a little bit back and forth. But, you know, with better natural command than Jared Jones, and I think possibly a wider mix, the level of adjustment, how long it takes back and forth, maybe less than Jared Jones. Yeah, Chandler might have a viable third pitch already, whereas Jones were kind of like, hey, do that and then you can really take that that next step. Trust the change of throw it more or find command on it or do something else, you know, but yeah he's a little bit fastball slidery whereas Bubba Chandler I think is is at least a three-pitch guy and I don't really like Oviedo that much. I think Bailey Falter is always, you know, faltering. And so I think Bubba Chandler is right there. I like Braxton Ashcraft too, but I think Bubba Chandler is ahead of him. In fact, I like Michael Barrels and I like Thomas Harrington. So, you know,

the real risk if you take a Pittsburgh Pirate for pitching at home like a Mitch Keller or something is that they get traded. Yeah, I mean, Keller signed that extension, so I don't even know if other teams would be all that interested. He might just be the highest paid guy in the Pirates rotation for a couple more years until we get arbitration for the guys ahead of him. But I'm with you on the back end of that group being really soft, and there's room for guys

like Chandler and Harrington to coexist and give the Pirates maybe, geez, one of the best rotations in baseball is that that's in the range of outcomes. It really is. And so you're just looking at the hitting group being like somebody step forward, please. Pirates fans are like, this will not end well for us. We know. So thank you for the optimism, but no thank you. It's not actually gonna happen. Brian Bayo at a discount relative to previous draft season still kind of looks like the same guy on the surface. Sierra in the low fours, ERA right around there, whip not really helping you, but lots of Ks.

So if you just need a guy who clearly has a job, he ticks those boxes. And I come back to the same kind of question we were wrestling with with Cutter Crawford. and I think the answer is different because the age is different. Do we still look at Brian Bayo and say there's an adjustment he could make and if he were to make that adjustment he can still take that step forward that was maybe driving some of the optimism around him this time last year? Yes I think that there's a case to be made that Brian Baggio has more upside than Cutter

Crawford and can capitalize on it. And the case starts as such. Sinker 107 stuff plus, Slider 106 stuff plus, Four Seam 93, we know that's not good, Change Up 91. Now Now I don't think that's right. I don't think he has a 91 stuff less change up and when you look at something just as simple as what has happened on Brian Baio's change up when he's thrown it in the past then you see that you know there's there's something maybe out of whack here with it. The change up for him has given him a 180 batting average, 294 slugging, 114 ISO, and he's thrown it 1,600 times. They know it's coming and they don't hit it. So when I see a guy who has a change up that's underrated,

has a sinker that's rated above average has a sinker that's rated above average and a slider that's rated above average. I see a three-pitch guy that he started to bring the fore seam back. Maybe it's the cutter, whatever it is. Maybe it's just peppering enough fore seams to keep people honest. But I see something where this could be the parts that come together all of a sudden to produce a breakout. You know what I mean?

He's not a bad fastball guy. Does he have a change up? Yes. Does he have a regn-wall? Yes. It's kind of like, he answers a lot of the questions. Positive, does he have really bad command? No.

You know, so I like Brian Baio here a lot. He kind of gives me the Mitch Keller floor, but with a ceiling that is a little higher. And I like that. So I think Baio is- Maybe a little bit harder to use, because like you, with Mitch Keller floor, but with a ceiling that is a little higher. And I like that. So I think Bayo is a little bit harder to use because like you with Mitch Kelly, you'd be like, oh, I use them at home with Brian Bailey. I use them at home. I want to use them on the road in New York. Like, where do I use them?

It's not as easy to be like, oh, I know how to use them. You know, it's more like you're this is more like a I'm hoping it breaks out kind of pick. Yeah. And it's easier. The deeper the league, the league the easier is leave him in for tough matchups, right? But in 12 team leagues I could see myself Missing good starts that are somewhat 12 team 12 team pitchers. Yeah I think Bales right on that cusp You'd be one of your last pitchers to be drafting and trying to use in a 12 at this this stage of the draft

But yeah, we're getting to that point one of your last pitchers you'd be drafting and trying to use in a 12 at this stage of the draft. But yeah, we're getting to that point. We're getting to the point where we're now talking more about waiver guys in some of the more shallow leagues and bottom of the roster bench pitchers in some of the deeper mixed leagues that are out there. Let's get to a few more names here. We've got another board. Let's pop this board up here.

You were looking for after pick 250, stuff above 100 and PP ERA over four the graphic is wrong. I got to turn that around. Other graphic had the PP ERA under four. So I wanted to be like, okay, let's take that and to put it out because, you know, there's only certain amount of pictures are going to be predicted projected under four that are you going to be available late, but let's find some guys that maybe could break out based on their stuff. I mean, you might be fine.

It's interesting to find that Tyler Anderson has above average stuff plus for a pitcher and then that last year the location wasn't good. And so Tyler Anderson might be a bet to really improve on the 4.8 projected ERA. He won't improve much on that 18% strikeout rate though. So he has limited upside, But Brian Bayo's on this list, Aaron Savalli's on this list, Bobby Miller of course is on this list, Ryan Nelson, Walker Bueller, and then Mitch Spence is on this list. And we made a friend in Dallas, Johnny Neenstedt, who is now working for the Giants, and he put out a pitching model that

really liked pitch Spence. I would say that, you know, a 103 stuff plus and a 4.14 projected ERA is really liking him too for where he's going. Also not going to give you a lot of strikeouts, but he has multiple fastballs. He has a wide arsenal. He's super cheap. And I think he's in the rotation. I mean, how many guys on this list are in the rotation right now? You got Mitch Spence. I don't even think Ryan Nelson is. You got Aaron Savalli. He's in a rotation right now. You got Brian Baio in a rotation. Michael Wacha, Mitch Keller, Cutter Crawford, and Justin Verlander. So if you need somebody who's in a rotation so that you can, you know, sort of pooper get off the potty quickly,

if it's that kind of a league where you wanna see what they've got early in the season and then make a decision, then those are your guys on this list. Yeah, love seeing Bayo in there. You're right about Ryan Nelson. I think the low key loser right now in Arizona with Corbin Burns signing there actually is Ryan Nelson,

but if someone gets hurt, he's the first guy in. If they were to trade Jordan Montgomery or Eduardo Rodriguez, then that opens up things a little bit, of course, too. But we'll see how that plays out. It's funny, Andrew Heaney pops on here. He's still a free agent. He seems like the guy that's gonna be the discounted

one year 10 million, one year 12 million, maybe something with incentives to sort of bring it up closer to the deal that I'm signing. Maybe he's waiting for an injury to sign or something, you know? Like, you know, they could definitely see a team that like had a good five and then lost one of them and thought, all right. He actually got over 140 innings for the second year in a row, which hasn't ever happened as a big leaguer for Andrew Heaney, so I don't know. Like, I would assume a team in need of innings at some point soon will come calling and add

him to the mix. Why would you sign Martin Perez? You could sign Andrew Heaney. Sometimes there's weird things that happen. Somebody asked me what do I like among the 15 million dollar signings best and I think it might be Charlie Morton because he's thrown the most innings. I feel like you can depend on his innings more than you can on Scherzer and Verlander and forget who else the the 15 inning guys were the 15 million dollar guys were I think Boyd may have ended up

Yeah, I got two years those two and 29. So I guess he doesn't count for the purposes of that particular question Huh about that? But yeah, Haney of that particular question. Huh, how about that? But yeah, Haney, he might actually be something that signs with somebody and does something annoying. You know, like signs with the Dodgers and puts his death, Dustin May to the bull pan. Or like, you know, who could I see

that has some money that could sign him? Like the Padres could sign him. The Padres could sign him. The Padres maybe should sign him because right now it's Randy Vasquez, Matt Waldron, and Johnny Brito for four, five, and six. Yeah, yeah, Padres should get on the board there. Some other names that I think are interesting,

late, late, late, after pick 300, Tobias Myers, market's saying, do it again, we don't believe you. And we saw that piece at BP looking at how pitches kind of play off of each other, the interaction of the arsenal, Tobias Meyers thrives in that area.

I think it helps, it's another way to help explain something that is not intuitive when you watch a guy pitch. You're like, hey, wait a minute, why are guys struggling so much with this pitcher? I think that's the answer in the case of Tobias Meyers. I'm kind of in at the price, maybe I'm a homer. You want to talk me out of it or do you think it's the answer in the case of Tobias Myers. I'm kind of in the price Maybe I'm a homer you want to talk to me out of it Or do you think it's actually a good idea to take that flyer on Tobias where he's going? I think it's stuff just fits together really well and it's one of those things where you know, he's 26

He's had so much time in the minor leagues He was pitching in 2016 in Baltimore and rookie ball for the first time and I could see why it would take him this long To get where he is because none of the stuff on each of the pitches is that great. But as you mentioned, at baseball for the rest of it, they point out that like, he's really hard to tell his pitches apart. And so I could see that that would take a while

because you really have to figure out how to sequence and you have to maybe throw pitches that, you know, no pitching coach in the minors is like, oh yeah, throw this like 92 stuff plus change up that, you know, no pitching coach in the minors is like, oh yeah, throw this like 92 stuff plus change up more. You know? But for him, it's like, what if I throw that more than I'm really kind of a four or five pitch pitcher that, you know, people can't really tell

the difference between my pitches. And I think that's the brilliance of Tobias Myers. And then it kind of fits in what I was saying was like, I think that boringly projected guys who are in rotations are undervalued late in, in draft and holds and you see people, you know, reaching for Bubba Chandler and taking Bubba Chandler before they take Tobias Myers and I get it, but that's why I created kind of the YOLO YOLO which is like if you took Bubba Chandler you took a starter where you don't know how many innings you're going to get and at least with Tobias Myers you can say oh the beginning of the season

at least I've got some options in Tobias Myers and then later you know maybe we'll get Bubba in there. Let's play Whack-A-Bowl with some names just tell me if you like these guys yes or no as a late dart Oh, just be like quick and decisive and and just say like one thing Wow be the opposite of your sound like me DJ hers Yes, I don't even know if you needed to say yes there I think the four seconds of audio before that was perfect. But yeah, great change of lots of Ks.

Frankie Montaz. Yes. He is a usable guy that I think you can use in New York at least. All right. Grant Holmes, I think we talked a lot about him on Friday. We like him better than this group. We like him, like him.

Nick Martinez staying with the Reds. Not really. No. I don't like that park. And I mean, I know he's durable, but no. Another red Brady Singer. No. You're never going to like Brady Singer.

I was just like, you know, it's a it's a good slider, but he's going into Cincinnati and he's been pinching in Kansas City all this time. All right. Tomoyuki Sugano. Bad K percentage in Japan, no. Chris Bassett. Only in kind of the Merrill-Kelly way. Look at the ratios the last three years before things unraveled a bit on Bassett, especially in the whip column.

Under a 1-2 every year from 2019 to 2023 before a 1-46 last year with the Jays. Very odd. wouldn't hurt engine curves one bit. And if he did, I think we would start to see like a more like a four or five VRA. Okay, we did some Verlander and Scherzer talk already on Friday. I think they're fine where they're going and you were, let's see, you were Scherzer over Verlander and I was Verlander over Scherzer because of the park.

Feel like you could stream Verlander easier. Jose Soriano. Love him, like him better than this. I like him, like him. I think he's like a bail. Okay, has anyone who's had two Tommy Johns ever thrown his heart as Jose Soriano? His Tommy Johns were both 2020 and 2021.

So there's tons of risk, but he held up okay last year. But he also has like, surprisingly, that was like the most of his most innings by pretty far like his most innings before this was 2019 82 and a third. They pushed him pretty good last year but averages 99.1 on the fastball after two TJs. I mean 60% ground ball rate keeps the ball in the park, you know, has more strikeouts than the sort of 18% crew. I like Soriano.

Jamison Tayon. He's going to, I think, make my cuts in Devil's Rejects, a 20-team keeper league where I've been shopping him mercilessly for the last eight months and at this point I've just said, fine, I'll keep him. I have a modicum of interest in that league. He's a little bit like, I think he's usable, I think he's gonna be usable in Wrigley, he's gonna be usable in Pittsburgh, you know. I think he's the kind of guy where like,

in most leagues I'd want 40 to 60% of the starts. Yeah, and that's a pretty deep league. So maybe you'd use them a bit more in the deepest of leagues. Lucas Gialito, I saw this quote, and I think this came from an episode of Rob Bradford's podcast, where Gialito said he's gonna be ready for a full spring training and a full season.

Those are his words. And I think a lot of us were looking at him and saying, wait, maybe it's gonna take him a couple months before he's actually back in 2025. So I'm just curious if anything's changed for you with Gialito looking at that Red Sox rotation. I mean, someone has to get bumped out if everyone's healthy and Gialito's back.

And that includes guys we've talked about in these episodes. Crochet is obviously safe. Hulk looks pretty safe. Baal looks pretty safe. Bueller, because the money's probably safe. So that probably hurts. Cutter Crawford, unless they go to a six man rotation.

Yeah, I mean, there's definitely I could see them going to a six man rotation just to, you know, make things better for crochet and G. Alito, which two guys where if you make the postseason, you want to massage their innings a little bit and you want to keep more around for later. And how do you do that? You can do a six man where you leave some innings on the table early in the season and

you hope to hopefully leave them for October. So I could see them doing that for sure. Cutter Crawford, you know, is somebody who's been in the pen before, so he could, he could work between the pen and the bullpen. But yeah, I think G Alito, the pen of so he could work between the pen and the bullpen. But yeah, I think G. Lido, the pen of the starting rotation. G. Lido, when we were just doing an episode of The Craft, me and Nick Pollock for PitchCon last week, we did a segment on what pitchers do you just like for no reason? Don't give me stats.

Just sort of like, you just like this guy and you think it could work out. He brought up Lucas G later on, he brought up the fact that he's probably ready for the full season. So if you're going to get 170 innings and then there's a slight possibility that he comes back and maybe he actually sits 94 again, because maybe part of the reason why his VELO dip from 94 in 2021 to 92 7 in one year, which is more aggressive than aging curves suggest you should do, was the beginning of the injury. I mean, these injuries don't just happen at once. No, that's a good point.

Obviously, if you're watching on YouTube, you saw me vanish for a second. I had a barking dog that was about to wake up, a sleeping baby, and I knew no one else in the house could do anything about it so I just had to run away. I had to let my dog in over here. Yeah, the dogs are not fully cooperative. Hazel is a very good girl but she gets stuck between

baby gates and doors sometimes and very gently starts barking and then eventually barks a lot louder so we saved it in this case. Whack-a-mole continues Ryan Nelson, I mentioned before quiet loser because of the job. So probably not someone you're taking outside of the deeper leagues because you know. He's also just never been as good

as the projections on him, you know. Yeah, Ryan Weathers. You like him a little. I do and I think he's creeping up in the model too, which he was low him even before the adjustment Maybe he still load him even after the adjustment. Let me see here Just look at his overall first 100.5 stuff plus, you know, that'll work dude

I mean that that I mean just just average stuff is it took him so long to get here and congratulations to him on the work and he's in that rotation because they need him and he's going to be useful at home. Yeah, I can see. I can see. Yes. Pretty odd injury last year to think it was a finger injury that cost them a lot of time. So it wasn't like shoulder, elbow or anything major. Some kind of in on whether it's lost 20 pounds this off season. I saw a video of him. He was on vacation in Scotland He was looking for a place to throw. I mean it was uh It was cool. It's like all right. He's getting the work in even in a place where it's hard to get the work in so

How about his teammate Edward Cabrera still in still in still in last Kyle Harrison's our last this is our last Kyle Harrison. This is our last this is our last Ruko. This is the last time. If it doesn't go any better I'm done. No, because if he ends up in another organization at some point. Oh they can fix them. They can fix them. I think you still got one more banked, but one one more in Miami. We'll see what happens this time around. How about Kyle Harrison? Not really. I mean it's sort of in the weather's way at most, I'd be using it at home. Maybe weather's is better, I don't know, Kyle Harrison, it's been disappointing. Yeah, relative to the hype he was generating before he hit triple A especially, it's kind of surprising.

A 447 ERA and a 130 whip for your first 159 innings in the big leagues actually isn't that bad, it's just not at the level we expected based on all the reports we're suggesting from Kyle Harrison when he was breaking in. How about Luis Ortiz in Cleveland? Yep, in. Definitely in. Okay, Charlie Morton you mentioned before, you kind of like him. Pretty in, yeah.

Relatively speaking. If he's the cheapest of the three old guys again like profit Hayden Bird song a little bit more than Kyle Harrison actually yeah Because this stuff is there it's it's poor command But I could see him maybe developing a cutter or some some wrinkle on his fastball that he can command better all right Aaron Savali yep, that's the solid yep. I just think that they know what time to use them. They know they've gotten the most out of him. They're a great pitching coach. They're a big great organization for getting the most out of guys.

He has multiple good breaking balls. He's never had a good fastball. He is who he is. He's not I'm not saying he's going to break out, but I think he's super useful. Yeah, well, maybe exceed slightly on the expectations. Sean Burke, I think came up on the first of the boards we put up. The White Sox, for as much as we have criticized them in the last two years, the decision to promote from within, to choose Chris Goetz as GM, based on the state of their farm system,

he was the farm director before that promotion, you can start to look at this group and say, as bad as the top of the roster looks overall, like the quality of the current big leaguers might be way down, you can at least look at the prospects they've amassed over the course of these trades and a few recent drafts and say wait a minute, they're going to become better and they're going to get a lot more interesting over the course of this year. It might be a miserable watch for the first half of the season But I think by the time you get to July, you're going to see a few big time promotions and Sean Burke might be there the entire time.

He might be a reason to tune in every fifth day from day one this season. So what does Burke bring to the table and what kind of ceiling does he have pitching for one of the worst teams in the league, at least to begin this season, if not for all of 2025. It's a really good fastball 108 stuff plus fastball. None of his other pitches is above average by stuff, but they're all near it.

So he's been the work for him, which has been extensive and has covered many different levels, has been, I think, to get the secondary pitches to the point where they complement his fastball well. But hey, do I want to bet on a guy with a 95, 95 mile an hour fastball that has good shape? Yes, I do want to bet on that guy. He's also going to get every opportunity he wants. And the big problem has been command 30 present 40 future from fan graphs. When they when I looked at them, you can see walk rates in the tens and elevens and even up to, you know, fourteens and fifteens from him. I will say that, you know, more often you see tens. I mean, the, if you look at 2022 across all minor leagues, baseball, 10.3% walk rate,

2023 was an injured year with a 16% and a really small sample. And then last year in the minors 13% walk rate so I think he'll have around a 10 11% walk rate and that will chip away at some of his value But the oopsie is a 385 ERA projection and I believe it because I'm betting on that fastball. I Definitely wanted the full report on Burke just because I know what lucky people aren't there out there and not as familiar with him as that With many of the other names that were folding into the end of this episode. Zach Littell.

Yeah, no, I don't, like he doesn't have a job, does he? Does he have a job? If he has a job, I'm in, just because he has a job. He's the five right now ahead of Rasmussen. Yeah, that's another team that could use a six man rotation though with all the injuries they've dealt with. And then with the elevated risk, I think more likely than not he has a job.

One thing that caught my eye last year, 290 ERA at the trop, 454 on the road. He might be hurt. He's going to be hurt the most by the park change I've been. Lower K rates than I think just about anybody else you're gonna find on that depth chart I just wonder if they found a less expensive Zach Eflin in Littell and that's part of the reason why they traded Eflin away is like hey, we got one We got another one. We don't need to you know, I do think that he lives on that kind of Really nice edge when it comes to stuff and and the fact that his stuff was augmented at home was probably the big reason for those splits and that's not going to happen for him anymore. Hayden Wisneski.

He does have similarities to Michael King and Clark Schmidt and to some extent those guys took longer to make it happen but right now he's probably the five in Houston keeping the seat warm for Luis Garcia. And so I could see him or Blanco going back to the pen. And if it's gonna be him or Blanco going back to the pen, I think it's gonna be Wes Netsky going back to the pen. Yeah, it seems like he is an extra guy for them for now, but maybe someone they like And depends on the situation,

like and more in draft and hold at the moment than in leagues where you make moves. But I think it could actually be a good profile to take the longer term investment. And if you can do it in a keeper dynasty league on the cheap, this is a good time to try and do it. Dean Kramer, geez, we've talked about him a million times

in this show too. I think he's been hurt by some of the changes they're making to the park there. They're undoing some of Mount Baltimore, kind of bringing that back a little bit. He's been the guy who's benefited maybe the most from Mount Baltimore according to some pieces of research. So if you take the largest home run projection for him that's from Steamer, then you get the Steamer is a 4 4 6 ERA The bat gives actually the bat gives the largest home run prediction for him with a 4 5 4 ERA

So that's where you could end up gonna be give you major league innings But I don't they may not be that useful either one of Tony Gonsolin or Dustin May Tony Gonsolin has an option and Dustin May does not and I do think that this is going to matter when the Dodgers make their decision about who is in the sixth man and who's not but I guess with Dustin may the the situation is that he could be a hybrid in the road in the rotation in the bullpen guy but if everyone's healthy you got Snell Yamamotoamoto, Glassnow, Sasaki as locks. Otani's not going to be ready to begin the season. So I guess you have two rotation spots to begin the season.

So I think Gonsolin and May are in. Bobby Miller is in the minor leagues. And then when Otani comes back, either Gonsolin or May loses their job or someone else is hurt. This is all to say that Tony Gonsolin is interesting to me. I think he could get 100 innings this year in the major leagues. And he's always been kind of a little bit better

than the models. I mean, lifetime 431, Sierra and 319 ERA. As expected, still some names we didn't get to. We will get to them on a future episode. But again, send us questions. It's hard, so many pictures. them on a future episode. But again, send us questions. It's hard, there's so many pictures. Send us questions on the Mailbag channel, in our Discord. You can join the server with the link in the show description.

Some breaking news here, passed along by our producer, Brian Smith, Yankees have signed Carlos Carrasco to a minor league deal. I don't think there's a whole lot of fantasy interest in that one, but we'll see if Carrasco can get one more season in there. We did see a trade, Alex Faito gets acquired by the Rays. Huh, I wonder why they did that. Is it because Alex Faito has

options? Nope, it's another guy without options. So does it help solve the problem we discussed last week when we looked at them as a team that maybe would want to find some pitchers that have options to be able to shuttle guys on and off that roster. Yeah, I don't know what it is. It's not his change up or his fore seam or his sinker or his slider, or those sliders around the hundred. Maybe the change up is better than the thing says, or maybe they just think he's a fungible middle reliever that they'll eventually release as well. They just think that he'll make it to the opening day.

I'm sure that they're not giving the Tigers much. 14.4% swinging strike rate last year, 22.4% K rate. I'm curious to see what the adjustments are, as I always am when the Rays acquire a pitcher. But the rule, a little bit unclear for Alex Fato. You're right, that does not fit really. 14.4% swinging strike rate, you would suggest a higher than 22% strike rate.

Yeah, something might be different when we see him in a raised uniform. That is going to do it for this episode of Rates and Barrels. One other reminder before we go, you can find us on Blue Sky, you know us at saris.bsky.social, and dvr.bsky.social.

We got the closers, we got relievers coming at you tomorrow. We're back with you on Tuesday. Thanks for listening. It's Diana Rossini from the Scoop City podcast. It's Super Bowl week and the eyes of the world are on New Orleans to see if the Chiefs can make history or if the Eagles are ready to rain on their parade. Myself, Robert Mays, Derek Claussen, and a whole host of NFL reporters and special guests will be live streaming every day from Radio Row, covering all the buildup to Sunday's showdown. Join us on the athletic HQ YouTube account every day at 5 p.m. Eastern Time.

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