Rates & Barrels - 2025 UT Preview & Late Outfielders

Episode Date: January 27, 2025

Eno and DVR continue their position preview series with UT/Utility players -- where a potential choice with the first overall pick awaits thanks to Shohei Ohtani. In addition to a trio of early-round sluggers to consider, there are late-round considerations that could emerge to qualify at new positions in-season. Plus, we take a look at a few very late outfielders (beyond Pick 300) to consider. Rundown 2:08 Are You Taking Shohei Ohtani First Overall Despite Shoulder Surgery? 11:19 Choosing Marcell Ozuna v. Brent Rooker v. Kyle Schwarber 21:33 Giancarlo Stanton & Joc Pederson 26:32 Late UT-only Players, Paths to Add In-Season Eligibility 34:12 Eloy Jiménez's Opportunity in Tampa Bay 45:46 Outfielders We Like Beyond Pick 300 Overall 56:54 Some Surprisingly Great Comps for Late Outfielder 1:10:09 Optimism About Jordan Beck? Follow Eno on Bluesky: @enosarris.bsky.social Follow DVR on Bluesky: @dvr.bsky.social e-mail: [e-mail] Join our Discord: https://discord.gg/FyBa9f3wFe Share your Positional Rankings in the HiveMind Ranks for UT players: https://forms.gle/S12DHuB1WjcPPW8G9 Subscribe to The Athletic: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels Hosts: Derek VanRiper & Eno Sarris Producer Brian Smith Executive Producer: Derek VanRiper Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Say hello to Tim's Selects, Tim's Everyday Value Menu. Enjoy the new spinach and feta savory egg pastry or our roasted red pepper and Swiss pinwheel, starting at only $2.99 plus tax. Try one or try our full Tim's Selects lineup. Terms apply. Prices may vary at participating restaurants in Canada. Hello, I'm Ian McIntosh and I'm the host of the Daily Football Briefing. What is the Daily Football Briefing? It's a special 10 minute daily show designed to bring you up to speed with the most important stories from across the football world. Except on Monday mornings when it's 15 minutes and we try to cram in the results, standings and stories from the top 10 leagues on the planet.

Or at least the top 10 leagues I run on a football manager save. Follow this show today and you'll never miss another big story again, whether it's news that the Athletic has just broken. David Arnstein, what happened? News from outside the Premier League that other podcasts might ignore? That is a difficult one to explain, so let's go bit by bit. Or it's Champions League week and you just need someone to put it all into context. It's made for a very useful away point in a difficult game, in a difficult week.

Listen to the daily football briefing in 2025. It's out every weekday wherever you get your podcasts. Mugged rates and barrels Monday, January 27, Derek the Ripper, EnoSarris here with you in our position preview series. Shifting the focus today to UT-only players because, well, there's the, you know, Shohei Otani thing, the guy that goes 1-1 in a lot of drafts, he doesn't fit into the other position previews so we have to have a UT-only. But there's other interesting bats in this group and as a bit of a bonus and

because we took too long with some of the other outfielders we have late late outfielders tucked in to this episode as well so tons of ground to cover like always. We'll start getting back to some news here in about a week or so because tomorrow, Tuesday, January 28th is the start of Pitcher Week. Pitcher Week. Always fun. Sorry I won't have my rankings out this week. I'm doing a big stuff plus story for next week and then the rankings will come out the

week after that. But you will get a pretty good look at my rankings from the way I talk about them. You know, I don't really hold back. So you could probably piece it all together if you really took notes. I will also try to hack, you know, in between now and the start of picture

where you can see what I can find. Do enough would you rathers, you can pretty much figure it out. Yeah, just take a piece of paper and just start scribbling things down as you go and you'll come up with a pretty good look at the rankings and what they're going to look like once they are available. The Hivemind rankings are still rolling.

Be sure to join our Discord. There is a UT only section. Only 10 players had to be ranked for that group, which should be much more manageable. So if you're still taking some time on the outfield, which runs 50 deep, and you're even thinking about the late outfielders from today As part of that that is absolutely fine, but the UT will be open as well

So you can dig into that all right, you know, let's start with Shohei Otani All right You got the first pick you won you got first pick either by KDS because you wanted it or even if it's your third or fourth Choice that's what you drew is show Hey, Otani the player you take at the top of the board this year. I was in a draft and hold where I had the third pick recently and I thought this would be interesting because I was bumming out because I couldn't run because I have COVID toe it's the most ridiculous thing apparently when I got COVID two weeks ago I didn't even know I had COVID. It was a

vascular situation, my toe was not actually a blister. So anyway, I was bumming that I couldn't run. So I joined another DC. How do you solve being bummed out you start drafting again, drafts throw money at the problem and draft. And I had the third pick. And I was actually worried that Ohtani would get to me at third. And I was the third pick and I was actually worried that Otani would get to me at third and I was reaching around trying to figure out who else I could pick because

It was a draft and hold and what I really don't like about utils in draft and holds is I'm always trying to make sure I have four Eligibilities for every position. I'm trying to get cross positional guys I'm trying to just make sure that over the course of the season, you know, I can cover every position and taking you to lonely guy always puts you behind on that. In the league where I have Brent Rooker, I also had the hardest time getting enough players together at every position. And it cost me basically a pitcher or two at the end because I had to, I didn't have,

I had a guy who was just util till it didn't help me anywhere so and the other the other thing is I took Gunnar Henderson third over Aaron Judge I did it I said I might on this show and then I means tested it and it felt so good and just as an aside the reason I did it is because I have a question or two about Aaron Judge. Maybe it's the same question, right? Age, injury, right? Maybe it's just one question. I have no questions about Gunnar Henderson.

Zero. Am I supposed to fight you about Aaron Judge in the UT-only preview? Is that supposed to happen? Yeah, that doesn't make any sense. Anyway. So, take Ohtani, it's fine. I love Ohtani in daily leagues where he's one guy and you can switch him between he's by far the most

Valuable player in fancy baseball if he's one player and you can play him as a pitcher and a hitter by far and Even in the situation you just described where you say well I don't really like having UT only players and drafting holes to like players and multiple Eligibilities guess what his other eligibility is pitcher and he's gonna pitch again this year and the situation with the depth They have there is ideal They can give him the extra rest that they want to give him push them to 120 130 innings Whatever that number is it's a built-in

Toggle to up top 10 sort of pitcher on a per innings you ever pick one start of Otani over five or six days of hitting? Yeah, because I think what can happen in a DC and anyone who's played in draft and hold leagues where you've lost a ton of pitchers is that the value of having one really good start could be huge for the standings. Just the option. It may only be a handful of times But I think the chaos that can rain on a team where you can't make pickups, especially makes Otani Uniquely useful in that scenario and it's plenty valuable even in things where you can make moves We've talked about the difficulty in

Deeper leagues 15 team leagues of streaming pitching trying to find guys in the waiver wire trying trying to play the matchups, trying to pick up two start pitchers. In the highly competitive leagues like the NFBC, it's a tough road to get high quality pitching week in and week out off of the waiver wire because a lot of folks are looking at the same things and looking at the same matchups and targeting the same players and it turns into this really challenging,

fab sort of management game. So I think the versatility of Otani continues to be a little bit underrated by a lot of folks, even in leagues where you have to make a choice. And I did see, I got an email from CBS Fantasy because they've added a commission or function where you can choose how Otani gets used up in your league, which if you're in a keeper league or a dynasty league creates a bit of a problem. I don't think you can change how Otani is used in a league where he's already kept. So you'd have to do it at a point where he's available to the entire league, put him to a vote or just have the commissioner decide or whatever your league likes to do.

But I think if you've had him as a player that could be used a certain way for the entire time that he's been here, I don't think you can just flip the switch for him as an already kept player and have that be fair, so you gotta be mindful of that. But in daily leagues where you have to choose, he gets added value there, right? In some leagues where you get all the stats all the time, he's an easy runaway 1-1 sort of player. But even if you were just saying you only get the hitting stats, Otani at 1-1 sort of player. But even if you were just saying, you only get the hitting stats, Ohtani at 1-1 is at least an option,

even if we're not saying it's a lock, right? He's doing enough as a hitter to still be in that conversation, even without any value as a pitcher. Yeah, the only thing I worry about is a soldier surgery going into the season. Maybe he makes it back and gets his full plate appearances, but I think he's over projected plate appearance wise

because the years where he did pitch, he took days off from hitting. I think it did cost him because basically, if you had six days of hitting in a week and one day he's pitching and one day he's taking off that might be four days of hitting in a week plus the one day pitching. We're not exactly sure how they're gonna use them or what they're gonna do with that or if he's gonna rest but I do think there's a little bit of nervousness for me at

least of like maybe my over-under for stolen bases for him is more like 28. Maybe my over-under for plate appearances for him next year is more like 605, 620 instead of 690 for Steamer, 665, you know. I said he's the most valuable, but there are situations where he loses value like when he's in a weekly league or you have to choose between hitter and pitcher and stuff like that so and then and then there's this asterisks of what how healthy is the shoulder even how much is he going to pitch I think my thirty the third innings in twenty twenty two one sixty six twenty twenty three one thirty two even. So that gives you the idea of like the upper bounds of what he could do knowing that they are planning on another deep playoff run trying to make sure they don't push them too hard. They could be under those numbers. That's certainly a possibility. If you want 30

playoff innings or whatever, you know, 20 playoff innings, then you can only get like 110 regular season innings. But the only other thing to talk about with Ohtani is the health of that shoulder, right? I mean, is he is he going to have the same power right away? Because we've seen the seasons where the plate appearances are down because he's pitching and needs a little bit of rest and he can still hit 40 homers in that capacity. You can dial the playing time down the way you described and he can still hit 40 homers.

You can scale the stolen bases back and he was stealing 20 plus bags in those 40 home run seasons and he was doing it while hitting for a high average and getting on base a ton so you can dial him back and he's still that good the only thing I'd be worried about is if the shoulder is giving him Problems throughout the first half of the season even maybe the power just takes a little bit more time To come all the way back. I know I've said Him and like what if he just doesn't you know what if he's behind and spring and they just like yeah, he's you know, the first three weeks. He's not gonna play Those are the concerns that I've got kind of built in is like they maybe the power is not there right away and we're getting 70% of the power that we're accustomed to and then reducing the playing time and taking away steals

Like what are we talking about? I mean if he even if he like has 605 plate appearances, hits 40 homers, hits 280 with 25 stolen bases, he could still be in the conversation for the best fancy hitter in baseball. Right, that's why despite the risk people are still doing what they're doing taking them where they are. So it's not without risk because of that injury especially, but we've seen him do such ridiculous things in this dual role that even just getting back to pitching in early April and providing a lot of that value still as a hitter at the usual rates of playing time would put him

right there at the top of the board. He's not the only interesting UT-only player as far as early rounders go. He dropped down to that pick 75 range and you find a trio of big-time power bats that do not have eligibility anywhere. Choose between Marcel Lozuna, Brent Rooker, and Kyle Schwab. Let's assume 5x5 with average instead of OVP. Who do you like the most of that trio because they are lumped together by ADP right now and I think their projections come out very similarly

which is why that keeps happening. I'm gonna take Rooker. I'm a little bit nervous about Ozuna's sort of up and down career with regards to power and his age, just to confirm that I know what his age is. 34, yes. I'm concerned about 34 year olds. Rooker age wise is in a good spot. And then, you know, if you look across what they do, Kyle Schwaber is projected to probably be the best player of the bunch, but they're all super close. And the one thing that Schwaber has that the other guys don't have is like big minuses in certain

categories. So I think that ATC had like a way to talk about this, about the balance of your like your categorical balance as a player, you know, and you know you tend to want to get balanced categorical players because they're easier to replace. If you put all your stolen bases into one player and you lose him, it's not very easy to go into the wire and get like a 60 or 70 stolen base guy. So in a similar way, Schwaber is so good at the power aspect, but it's so negative at the batting average thing that he forces you to do certain things categorically. So I think Rooker is gonna have a decent batting average. I think all the power is going to be there. There's the upside of

his park. They're all a little bit older, but Rooker is on the younger side of this trio. So I'll take Rooker. I did want to say that I changed the settings on the auction calculator away from the NFC settings just for this one, because I wanted to see what it'd be like for people in one catcher leagues with two utility spots. So I ran the auction calculator for one catcher, full suite of infield, five outfielders, one middle, one center, one corner infield, and two utility spots for 15 teams. And Schwaber, 33rd best hitter.

Brent Rooker, 38th best hitter. Marcel Azuna, 37rd best hitter. Brent Rooker, 38th best hitter. Marcel Azuna, 37th best hitter. All basically 20 to $22 players. Right there, according to Oopsy, with Manny Machado, Freddie Freeman, Anthony Santander, William Contreras in a one catcher league, Willia D'Amis. So Cattell Martez right in the middle of this so I Would say that this trio is extremely undervalued in most Settings yeah, I think even if you don't play in that kind of league and most leagues are either to catcher or even one catcher with

one utility Clocking the utility spot is one of the things people say that I I just don't agree with it I don't worry about it. I think it matters in draft and hold because draft and hold just need to cover everything. But I think once you get out of draft and hold. Yeah, but you're getting a great hitter. Yeah, that's true.

You're collecting surplus value as opposed to the I didn't clog the utility and now I'm putting in the best available hitter off my team that's either the third corner infielder or fourth, first third corner, you know, like the the depth player you're putting up or whatever. It's my six outfielder. How good is your six out there going to be really? Right. And I think what you have to do to counteract using any of

the early utility players is just make sure you have some multi position eligible players elsewhere on your roster to give yourself the flexibility of getting the best available bench guy in. There's other ways to do it right? That's it. If you didn't do it I still don't think it would ruin your team. I just think you'd have some weeks where you have to slightly more difficult decisions or you don't have the choice because the pieces only fit a certain way. I think that's what you have to be mindful of if you're gonna take any one of the early UTs that are gonna stick on your roster all season. I don't know, of the three,

I think five games in season is what it takes to qualify at a position in many leagues, so it's not really that much. I think Rooker might qualify first based on how these guys are used. That's my guess. I mean, they've talked about him playing in the outfield, and the way they've talked about it

is a little bit different. So Masataka Yoshida is gonna be in our next tier for UT only, and I looked at it, because I thought they said, oh, they're gonna play me the outfield, right? That's how I read it, and then I went and found the quote, and it was more, it'd be great for us if you could play the outfield.

But really, like, would that be great for you? It means some other stuff kind of didn't work out the way you'd hoped, I don't know. I feel like that's great for you? It means some other stuff kind of didn't work out the way you'd hoped. I don't know, I feel like that's just something you say in the winter because you wanna be as optimistic about everyone being able to do anything you need them to do without talking about limitations. Oh, and you might also be in contract negotiations

with a free agent or whatever. There's lots of reasons you say things. But let me see here, Mark Katze on Rooker playing outfield. Cause I didn't actually check his. I thought it was he's gonna play the outfield some. With Rook, it definitely is an option for us to utilize him in the outfield next year. It's an option for us, crap, that's not good.

Yeah, well that's more sober analysis. I mean we know he had surgery at the end of the season though too. So that's a factor. They were saying that like his arm was a problem for him playing the outfield and now that he's got his arm fixed, like, you know, it's more likely that he can play the outfield. Yeah, I think that's that's reasonable. Schwab or got to five games in the outfield. If you finished with five, I mean, unless they were clustered around someone being on the IL,

did he get him last year? When did he get his fifth outfields? That's what I was trying to, I was trying to go back to the game logs and look and see how long that actually took for him to get those opportunities. I don't. The other part for Rooker is just that the, you know, the left field,

we've talked about this before, but the left field situation in Oakland is terrible. So like they have a real obvious, oh no. You said he only did five in the outfield? Yeah, it was only five. The fifth one was September 4th. Yeah, I mean, so you waited until September 8th. So you got like two weeks of him in the outfield.

So you can't bank on that being a thing that is very likely to happen with Schwaber. It's more likely with Schwaber than Ozuna, even with their decision to trade Jorge Solerraway because they brought in Profar. So once Okunye comes back, they're going to be really crowded in the outfield. Kelnik's the fourth outfielder, so Marcel Ozuna won't qualify anywhere, barring a string of injuries. I think Rooker could maybe do it in the first month.

Yeah. So maybe that's separate or two. Another difference between these players, Schwabr, probably the most batting average downside, but safest power floor of the group by far, and the run in RBI counts are phenomenal. Year over year over year, you might get a zero or a near zero in the stolen base department, whereas Rooker will give you a little bit there.

Ozuna might hit for a higher average, but you mentioned being older, up and down production throughout his career. Yeah, I think of the group, I do like Rooker and Schwaber the most. I'm much more likely to roster one of those guys than I am to even think about rostering Marcel Ozuna, even though the price is equal across the board here. We were talking about shoulders at some point, and we decided that hurting one was better than the other. What was the tatties? Is that the front shoulder or the back shoulder?

You want me to remember tatties his shoulder injury? Which shoulder it was? Bellinger. Bellinger's shoulder? Bellinger, I think it was his front shoulder. It's my first guess. Yeah and we were talking about how it's really hard to let go all the way, like to take the full swing. Yeah, Conforto was the front shoulder, and he said I couldn't, I couldn't take my full swings. I was doing like two-handed swing throughs and stuff because I was worried about popping it out again.

Anyway, Masataka Yoshida had shoulder surgery, and he had it on his right shoulder, which is his front shoulder. And it was labor repair, October 3rd, no further details, but they said that he should be ready for opening day. And I'm kind of of two minds, it's a little bit different than with Otani, because with Yoshida, he was dealing with it all year, right?

It wasn't like he hurt himself, like Otani hurt himself in front of us. We saw it happen. We saw how bad he looked afterwards. And he wasn't ever, he didn't look good again after he did that. And he was kind of like, you know, kind of holding it. You know, remember one time he just ran off the field

holding it? He was yeah Yeah, so with Yoshida, it's a little bit different. I think maybe it's some sort of where or something Some sort of you know getting worse over time I'm just really surprised that Yoshida last year made some gains in terms of lifting the ball better and still hit the ball decently hard and You know did some things better than he did in 2023, Yoshida did. And he did this all hurt.

And oops, he doesn't like him as much as the others, but all of them projected to be 10% better than the average of the bat. And yes, he's definitely both in DH only and in a platoon. So he's comfortably behind this group, but there are times when Yoshida falls too far. I mean, this is a guy who might be able to hit 280 with 18 homers and five stolen bases for you. Yeah, I think the playing time is generally pretty safe for Yoshida overall.

I mean, once he's fully recovered, the shoulder and the- Cap, too, and like, he's going to get more than 600 play appearances. Hey, it's Lauren Dragon from Wirecutter, the product recommendation service from the New York Times, and I test headphones. Sweat is actually conductive because of the saline content in it, so we basically make our own fake sweat and spray it over and over on these headphones to see what happens to them over time. and spray it over and over on these headphones to see what happens to them over time. This is 85 dB of airplane noise. We're going to put on some noise-canceling headphones and see how well they actually block out the sound. Put them on the ground and kick them over there. Okay. Go. Are they broken? No. I have 3,136 entries in my database. Kids, workout, running.

Does it have a connector that's lightning or USB-C? What version of Bluetooth is it? Does it have FDX HD? We have ones that track your- At Wirecutter, we do the work so you don't have to. For independent product reviews and recommendations for the real world, come visit us at nytimes.com slash Wirecutter.

We even have one that's solar powered. There's a pair of DHs that kind of go before the late late UT only guys. So let's look at Stanton and Peterson. So John Carlos Stanton versus Jock Peterson, they go outside the top 300 overall. So in 15 team leagues, they're still getting drafted in 12s, they're still probably getting drafted there too

as late late bench options for those chasing power. And I guess we've talked about Peterson Peterson probably as part of the platoon Conversation we had in the outfield even though he's a DH and we said, okay, he's got this clearly Maximized role that's worked really well for him in recent years, right? Jock Peterson hasn't reached 500 blade appearances in a season since 2019 really consistent and that's with four different organizations in four years. A 481, a 433, a 425 and a 444. He could still get to low 20s home run power. He could still steal a few bags, not a lot. And then you're looking at probably 60-ish runs and 60 or so RBIs, that is okay, but it's really situational in usage because of how strictly he gets platoon.

Yeah, he doesn't even finish the game, so it's not only, you know, oh, he doesn't play every game, it's like he won't even get the last played appearance in a game. Right, and we talked about it, I think it was comparing him to Kerry Carpenter and knowing how Carpenter Can be flipped out of the game as well even though he does really really well in that big side platoon split So do you see a weekly league use case at all for for jock or even for Stanton? I mean with Stanton it's more of just the staying healthy question, too Okay, I think you can look at him and say, wow, he still hits the ball really hard. The raw power still there, much like Jock playing time now the last three years. Four fifty four fifteen four fifty nine did get the five seventy nine back in twenty

twenty one, so he's got one year in the last four where that playing time was at a level that Jock seemingly can't get to. It's coming with a little more batting average downside because of the types of of non Missiles that stanton occasionally hits and his waning speed. So he's it Like either these guys in weekly leagues at all really and even in daily leagues You can make the cons you can make the case I think easier for jock peterson in daily leagues Because you know lefty versus righty that happens more often And I can put him in against righties and it's very easy to know when to play him.

Even in those situations, like I said, he's gonna lose a play appearance at the end of the game so he doesn't have that same upside as even a Kerry Carpenter because, Kerry Carpenter's younger and could figure something out and the team could just decide to do something different. Whereas Jock, this is who he is and he gets taken out if a lefty reliever comes in.

Plus, with Jacque, a little bit of declining bat speed, and he's really up to 50% pull, so I don't know if you've watched him, but all he does is that front foot tip just flies open, and all he's trying to do is hit the ball hard down the line in the air. I just feel like that becomes more pitchable too over time. Like it just becomes really obvious what he's trying to do and it doesn't mean that he can continue to do it. You know

what I mean? And at 32, I'm starting to worry like, you know, any more decline in bat speed and I think he becomes, you know, more like a 230 hitter who hits 20 homers and that's super boring. So I'm generally readjusting my worryness about age. I feel like the game right now requires you to be young and athletic, creating a lot of different reasons. The shift bands, the VELO being up, all sorts of things. We're seeing younger and younger players in the league. And so generally I'm out on these two players.

I think my first exception would probably be like A.L. only leagues. There might be a little extra value here because the power still legit for both, but they carry plenty of batting average risk despite the quality of the contact, because within that is lost potential on balls and play. They're going to hit a lot of fly balls that turn into easy outs. So you got to bake that in again. Neither of these guys run particularly well at this stage of their and John could like Roll that rolls over a lot of them on the ground too. So it's like it's yeah, I don't know

I don't know their approach Stan's approach is better, but he's just capped not by platoon issues But just by his body, you know And I think that one's actually a little bit harder because at least with the platoon issue, you'd be like, oh, righty in the, I play him, you know, with Stanton. It's like, do I hold onto him through this injury? Is this like a six week hammy or is

this like an eight week hammy? Like, you know, is it worth holding onto? So I don't know. Mostly out on these two guys. Mono league goodness. That's where I fall for Stanton and Peterson. It works there.

It doesn't necessarily work for a lot of the mixed leagues that we play in. Let's get to the late UT-only players and maybe look for a few that could have paths to qualify somewhere else. What happens is a lot of guys don't play enough to qualify anywhere and therefore they end up as UT-only players so let's see what we can do. We've got old friend Kyle Manzardo is in this group and maybe his path to first base eligibility Got a little more complicated when they traded Josh Naylor and immediately signed Carlos Santana

Yeah, but constant us all this dirt and like it's it's not gonna work one year You know and if Manzardo like starts hitting well like if my son has a great spring like he'll play first base You think you could take it over he Played six games at the major league level at first last year had 40 as the DH just by comparison So compared to the DHS we were talking about earlier the the Rooker Schwaber group I would say men's rto qualifying at first is More in the direction of Rooker qualifying in the outfield It might not happen right away, but it shouldn't take forever to come together either. If he's hitting enough

he'll stay in the lineup and be very productive. The second question though is how much do you think Manzardo hits this year right? It was 53 games in the big leagues last year with Cleveland 26% K-rate, walk rate just under 6%. Do you think the adjustments are taking place that are going to make him a regular in a Cleveland lineup that continues to look for some answers? I think they need hitters and he has more, he has enough upside. We'll talk about this with John Kensky-Noel, but John Kensky-Noel like, you know, has better bat speed, better top end eggs of v-lows, and obvious flaw in strikeout raid. Monsardo has the chance to be kind of a, maybe even a Naylor-esque hitter, right? Decent batting average, probably better plate approach than Naylor, maybe slightly less raw power. So I think that they keep giving him chances because he's their type of player too. Noel is not really necessarily their type of player.

You know, they haven't gone with that since from Mil Reyes in a long time. So I would say he'll get chances. And I'm a little surprised he's projected so well. Manzardo is projected to be either seven or 17% better than the average of the bat. With, you know, like a 200 ISO oopsie says a 179 ISO probably because of Some of that top-end bad speed that's not quite there But I will mention that when Zardo hit a ball 109.8 in the major leagues last year in the minor leagues He hit a ball 111.9 in 2023 and 111.6 last year so there's might be a little bit of just getting the lay of the land

Maybe he's not doing his a swing every time because he's trying to make contact and trying to, you know, shoot show that he belongs. You know, maybe as he gets more comfortable, he takes some bigger swings. And we see more of that top end power. Either way, it's a pretty finished player. Like, you know what I mean? Like in terms of it's a good approach at the plate. This is a guy that should work out.

I don't know why. If it doesn't, I'm not not sure maybe it's not quite enough at speed, but he's 24 It's time for him to rock 45.2 percent hard hit rate at triple a last year It was forty eight point five percent in 2023 during his time in the raise organization post-trade it dipped But we've seen him run really good hard hit rates with a great sense of strike zone judgment everywhere he's been I think if this is gonna work it's you know platoon risk too we saw that already based on how they were mixing and matching so you have to bake that in but another deep league player that I like really dynasty keeper leagues probably cheap to get right now and could have a break out

yeah yeah I like this as a dynasty buy and also even in this year's redraft leagues, I do like him a little better than the jock Stanton situation just because the uncertainty arrow is pointing the right direction. He could figure it all out and Santana's not going to stop him and DH is open. So there's a lot of roads for him to succeed this year. How about Chris Bryant? It sounds like he'll be part of the DH right field rotation and I saw an article from Thomas Harding.

I saw you end up with him in Devil's Reject. Ah, well it was a dispersal draft where there's, you just take everybody and see what happens later. It doesn't mean he's not my team after cuts. That's right, that's true. Thomas Harding had a story about him this off season and Bryant's been adhering to a program to strengthen his long, troublesome back.

All checkups rendered a thumbs up. So if that holds true through spring training, a lengthy regular season, you know, maybe we get 115 or 120 games from Chris Bryant. That's not why I took him into dispersal draft. The options at the time were uninspiring the yes, we're not good either But you know Chris Bryant with health, you know, there's there's always this possibility he could be I don't want to say a Stantonian sort of player because no one really hits the ball as hard as John Carlos Stanton has in his career other than maybe Aaron Judge

And now peak Shohei Otani Bryant never really. And Bryant never hit the ball quite that hard, but a version of Chris Bryant in his early 30s being useful in Colorado isn't the most ridiculous thing I've ever thought about. It's kind of like an NL only end game sort of play. I don't know if I'm really that excited about him because I do think before it was the back, it was the shoulder in Chicago, right?

So he's had some major injuries that have hampered him for the better part of about four years now. And I just, I don't know. I don't know if we're ever gonna see even like the 265, 353, 481, that was 2021, the year that he split between the Cubs and the Giants. That seems like it's pretty out of reach for him at this stage of his career.

Yeah, and what would he be closest to adding? Maybe outfield eligibility in 2024. He had 12 games in the outfield and 10 at first. So, you know, one of those two would be the first he added. I kind of like him better as like a third or fourth first baseman in draft and hold where if he does put it together and he because first base is actually a really difficult position in draft and hold. You're hoping you get a third or fourth first baseman out of him that you can play when he's in Colorado. So yeah, maybe there's a world where totally a totally a

plays his way out of that role and Brian ended up getting a little more time at first. That could be nice. Yeah, I mean totally with that strikeout rate we've been talking about in in Boston. I do want to point out that I don't know if Arundado's gonna get there, and Arundado seems like a better fit for the Yankees anyway. There was some smoke around this, and if Arundado does end up there, then Yoshida does have to play in the outfield some.

And when he does, he'll have to play next to Juran Duran. We had a whole conversation about this That wasn't that wasn't I didn't do that purpose that wasn't that was actually an apology didn't sound like it It was an apology for getting his last name wrong. It's just when I start with Jaron. I go during so I'm just gonna in my head Call him Juran Duran from now on and nobody else has to come with me on that journey. Just gonna miss on the other direction.

Miss on the first. But I do think that Yoshida could actually add Outfield. I would rank him third behind Rooker and Manzardo in likely adding an extra aspect. I feel like the rest of this position is an exercise in wish casting. Eloy Jimenez has an invite with the Rays. He gets to get a job first.

Right, has to earn a spot on the Rays roster, which I don't think is impossible, but I don't really see an in-season path for him to qualify as an outfielder anymore. He played one game in the outfield after being with the White Sox and Orioles last year. It seems like maybe his days playing defense are pretty much over in the big leagues. Do you think the bat still has something there where we could get excited about Jimenez though

as a very, very inexpensive dart that comes in and I don't know, maybe it hits for a decent average and pops 20 homers and 500 play appearances. I still like certain things about him in terms of he swings the bat decently hard and he like good barrel rates are not that far in his rear view. 2022 he had a 14.7% barrel rate with a 22% strikeout rate so like I would give a person like this a chance on my team for sure. The one thing I worry about with the Rays is just you know if you have Chris Morell in the outfield, you're starting to hurt your defense a little bit, you know?

And then if you want to have Jonathan Aranda, Yandy Diaz, and Christopher Morell on your team with Eloy Jimenez, I think you start getting into some uncomfortable lineups defensively, right? That is a possibility, yes. I wonder if Morrell can be good enough in left field to make that less of a concern. Is that that much of an ask? Trying to get him to play in the infield seems like a bigger stretch

than making him a passable corner outfielder. So what's your three-way usage pattern for Aranda, Diaz, and Eloy Jimenez at DH and first? Aranda's the lefty. Aranda would be a big-side platoon guy, which means Yandy Diaz is either playing somewhere else or not playing. That seems kind of unlike the Rays. This still feels like a trade situation. Yandy's the starter at first, Aranda is the big side DH, and Eloy is, cleans up little side DH,

and sometimes Aranda plays first. And that's what they do when everybody's healthy, and then it depends on if Aranda is hitting enough. How much longer are they gonna run the Jonathan Aranda experiment at the big league level? It's been, in so many random spurts to this point, three different seasons in the big leagues, 333 plate appearances.

Like that's not enough of a fair shake. Yeah, I don't get it. It's really hard to like read the process numbers in here and really give them a lot of shrift. Like I don't even wanna, I don't wanna like report his barrel rate really. What I see is someone who can make a fair amount of contact and the question is how much power he has

because he doesn't lift the ball. And so, you know, can he be a yandi, yandi light? You know, maybe. I think that's what you might see from a contact quality perspective from Eloy is that he hits the ball very hard He's it on the ground a lot. That's a yandi Diaz problem he gets on base a little less than yandi Diaz because he doesn't walk quite as much but low-k-rate hard contact guy that

Hasn't put all of the best things he could do together over a full season yet. I mean other than the debut 2019 It's the closest thing to it 504 plate appearances that year That's the high water mark for Eloy Jimenez and over the course of his time in the big leagues He's kind of whittled away at the KRA kept making hard contact and had just a brutal time staying on the field Yeah, I think he's over under on play prints like 300 or something But if he if he doesn't make this roster, he's going to get picked up by somebody again. I just can't imagine a 28. The white socks could help.

They could do the funniest thing. Although the Marlins, the Marlins would probably be all over that. Marlins, Marlins, Marlins, and the moving truck doesn't have to drive as far. So I think consider that. Every mile counts. I've learned that.

How about Tyler Black as a UT only player a guy that just doesn't seem like he has a position We love him on paper. I mean there's so many things he could do if he played I think he would get a position pretty quickly Milwaukee is more place where like we don't have a full-time DH and we also have Kristen Yellet's coming off a back surgery and You know, we'd like to keep that open for him you know what I mean? So I think the real question is can he play and Can he play enough? First base. I think he'd play some first base and

Reese Hoskins with DH on those days. So those are days where Yelich is either hurt or Yelich is in the outfield those days. So those are days where Yelich is either hurt or Yelich is in the outfield. Defensively that's the bar. If Jake Bowers doesn't make the roster again, Black being a better defensive first baseman than Reese Hoskins is one way he could edge out some playing time. There's so many things he does that are interesting from a fantasy perspective. I mean OVP leagues he gets a boost but I don't think he's bad and batting average strike zone judgment seems great definitely seemed like a player that had some trouble making the adjustment between the AAA zone and the big leagues and only had 18 games all kind of scattered around to To try and figure out the adjustments and may have some things in common with maybe more like free like then

Than at first it seemed like does not hit the ball hard. But he gets to the raw power more than Freelick has. Like I think there's more evidence there. Or is he running to some of that? I mean he's got elite speed. Yeah, geez, we were still excited because coming off of last season, he was 55 of 67 on the base paths in the minors.

I mean it's just amazing for the upper levels. He calmed that down a lot this last season. But he also, so I don't know if anybody remembers this anywhere in the world, but I was watching after Tyler Black got demoted, I was watching Nashville because I'm a sicko. So it was one night I'm like, what's Tyler Black up to? I turn on the MLB TV and I watch it and it's written right after

a demotion and he just smashes a foul ball off his own ankle like Like it's like the first day or second day after he gets demoted like well, that's that's that's not great You know like it happens a lot guys do this stuff all the time But it's the kind of injury that if you are on the bubble of getting to the big leagues again, you're gonna play through whatever soreness you have there if you can, right? I think it was one of those situations that may have slowed down that running a little bit and may have caused those numbers to play to dip a little bit compared to what we saw in his first run.

It was also the first run at Nashville's 39 games. This was 102 games so you know maybe you kind of mushed those together and you get a better sense of what he could do. But he's still 20 for 23 this year at AAA, three for three in the big leagues. He's going to run and he has non-zero power. I kind of like Tyler Black because even if he's not gonna play third base or even second base,

I actually see enough chances at first to maybe have him work his way in there. We also have this friend, Lindor, that once you get a taste of the big leagues, sometimes going back, see enough chances at first to maybe have him work his way in there. We also have this friend Lindor that like, you know, once you get a taste of the big league sometimes going back, you're just, you're just not into it. That could happen too. I have no idea if that was the case with Tyler Black, but I distinctly remember the fall ball off the ankle, just adding insult to injury right off of the demotion.

Late late UT only options, Andrew McCutcheon, last run in Pittsburgh. Sure, I mean they're gonna use him because they sort of have to, but I don't think outside of mono leagues I'm all that excited. I don't think he's gonna qualify in the outfield. I think he's just clearly a DH at this stage of his career. JD Martinez, still needs a team

at the time of this recording, right? Still a free agent. And then some absolute darts like Matt Mervis and Andreas Chaparro. I mean, is Mervis going to make the opening day roster? I don't think so. I think they're going to run.

They're going to let Jonah Bride try at it again. I was a little surprised by some of the quality of the contact from Jonah Bride, who always always had a really good approach. And so I think they're going to let that play out for a little bit. And Mervis has an option if I am correct and that's one

thing that I think you really need to look he has one more option left and I think you you look at that when you're trying to do opening day you know situations like for example in Washington you've got Jose Tanya with one option. Brady House is in the minors. Ahmed Rosario does not have options. He's on a major league deal. Yepez, who has one option, and Shapiro, who has three options.

And so you've got to keep that in mind when you are trying to figure out what they're going to do, because because teams will especially rebuilding teams would rather option a guy who is Probably the guy they should have gone with you know, the way I think of this is often I think uh, they did this with luke rayleigh Where or and somebody before luke rayleigh, you know We were all like nate low should start at first base for the for the raise and instead they optioned Nate Lowe and had like Who was the Korean guy that had for a long time? Oh

Yes Why can't I think it was G-man Choi? G-man Choi, I don't know if it was G-man Choi But they they've done this plenty of times where that you think you're trying to figure out what they're gonna do and oh the guy with An option was sent down the guy without an option that they really wanted to get a look at They kept to the major leagues I think that's that's how Luke Railey ended up with the job and they've done this before so because they think you know either he's good and now we have a an everyday player or we sell him and we still got

the guy we optioned you know so I don't think Chaparro will break camp with Washington and he'll have to be hard to fight his way back It's the short version of that. I just wish Ron Howard could call in and just say it was G man Choi because that So much with just just a few words, it's all we really need But yeah, that's the late late cast at the UT only spot Not a ton to get excited about there Maybe guys that come back around at some point once we get to the team previews here in a couple of days Martina's had a job that we were interested in which is without a depth chart to like kind of Play around with it's hard to know where he's gonna go on a good team

What do you end up in the jock peterson John Carlos Stanton conversation? I guess but he's he's a righty So, you know as he declines, you're questioned whether or not he, what kind of a role he has. He could actually end up in a small side platoon role, although that would be a very good team that would want to sign somebody for a small side platoon role.

Right, so his other option would be to sign on a bad team to play every day to then get traded into the small side role for the postseason to go on a playoff run. Which is not great. Which is not gonna be good for the counting stats even if the playing time gets a boost. So I think it'd be a little bit like the Stanton situation with a little less power because look,

last year JD Martinez slugged 406 and he's doing that with a high K rate. So power looks like it is waning pretty good for JD as he enters his age 37 season. we'll see if he gets another shot. Let's get to the bonus content the late late outfielders the outfielders we like beyond pick 300 spoiler alert we are not talking about everybody who goes there because that list is about three pages long about fielders that actually go outside the top 300 overall. I do love it though, dude.

This is like one of my favorite things about fantasy. You know, we all have five outfielders. Yeah, we all have five outfielders. We all need some help with our fifth outfielder. We all need a sixth outfielder, no matter what depth we're in. And you know, there's so many different ways to mine this outfield. I'm gonna try to give you three of the ways that I look at

outfielders, deep outfielders to try and find people that might play more because we're always talking about playing time and so the three ways that I can I can say real quickly before we get to them to the players is look at platoon risk, look at their glove, because center fielders play more, and elite gloves will find their way on the field more often, and look at their quality of contact. So it's not anything that surprises anybody,

but you may be surprised by some of the comps and some of the players that rise to the top if you look at outfield through those lenses. Feel like I have a rare amount of power in this moment to choose which of those three groups to dig into First we've talked a lot about defense. I'll start with the defense Dalton Varsho is still a very very good defender Led places he's going as a six outfielder Yeah, you know and led the league in fielding run value by stat cast last year plus 17. It's phenomenal, right? It's great to see that. I mean the company Pete Crowe Armstrong

Jacob Young who also goes outside the top 300 Bretton Doyle who back-to-back gold glove winners and had that Fielding Bible Best-center fielder award that he just won winners and had that Fielding Bible best-center fielder award that he just won. So that is great company to be in that continues to carry playing time even if your bat leaves something to be desired. Now the Dalton Varsho word cloud sizable above average I would say in terms of the amount of attention he has drawn over the course of ratesates and Barrels history. There's still some power, 18 homers last year, stole 10 bases.

Batting average risk is baked in pretty good. We have a four year slide from that 246 that he topped out at with Arizona down to 235, down to 220 his first year with Jays, down to 214 last year. And it's the approach, right? It's the type of batted balls that he hits, despite being a guy that runs well

and despite being a guy that until last year kept the K-Rate under 25% for his big league career, even for his career, he's still a shade under there. He just hits a lot of soft fly balls that turn into outs and that's not really gonna go away because that seems like the only way that he's gonna get to that much power. It's okay, I mean, we have a group chat where someone paired him with Luis Arias and you kind of pair those two and you kind of come out with two guys that hit 260 with, you know, 14 homers and 13 stolen bases.

You're a little power light, but you're you've actually stayed. You've stayed on close to average in every other category. So there's way to prepare yourself for a Dalton Varsha later. And I think he's actually a great six outfielder in daily leagues where you can avoid some of the lefty matchups and where you're just plugging him in for extra homers and stolen bases. In mono leagues, this list is going to provide you some really good surprising plate appearance totals, I think. Jacob Young is an elite center fielder.

Yeah, there are other guys and whatever, but I think that there's going to go with Young in the center because if you have an elite center fielder, then you're not putting pressure on Cruz and Wood to be great defensively, you know? And maybe Cruz is really good defensively. Maybe he could play center. Maybe if they get better, you know, in the future, Jacob Young slides to a fourth outfielder. I think this iteration he plays most of the year as their center fielder. Brenton Doyle, we talked about how the glove is a big part of it.

C.R.E. is, you know, in a platoon, but this is why he was, he got taken there. And then the next names, two of the next names are some of my favorite fifth and sixth outfielders in draft and holds, Michael Ciani and Jake Myers. There's nothing really exciting about them as hitters, and I don't really wanna go through their offensive profiles because it's really blah.

Not in a good oatmeal way either. It's just, you're like, oh, oh, you got a good glove. That's what you can tell when you look at their offensive lines. But I do think both of their teams may. I mean, Jake Meyers a little bit more so than Michael Siani, because that's a competitive team. And I don't see another center fielder on that roster, unless Jacob Melton makes the team.

And so I think Jake Meyers is pretty safe for all the playing time he wants. But I think the Cardinals Michael Ciani like Victor Scott didn't play that well if he doesn't play that well in the spring There there's an easy answer for them is just to plug Michael Ciani in as a center fielder all year So I have some places where I picked up Michael Ciani based on his glove and I know it doesn't count in fantasy But it matters some You know, I know you're gonna say not to bring up the offensive profile, but I'm gonna do it anyway.

I know Sian E had a 22% hard hit rate last year, 2.3% barrel rate. That doesn't point to power. That's bad. It's 334 played appearances for a guy in the big leagues, basically for the first time. I know he debuted in 23, but we're talking about eight games

with six played appearances. That's a cup of coffee. This was actually an opportunity. He was 20 for 23 as a base dealer. I like that. We've seen double digit homers from him as high as AA, right? He popped 12 homers in 121 games.

He's been young for the level where he's played. I think Ciani actually has things to like about him. Like the cheap speed alone is good enough. The high possible playing time volume is good too. He's probably the one on the ground this much. Of course he is. Of course. Well you gotta do what you gotta do. So it's one of those situations where you're like, oh the WRC plus is never really that good. He was getting an average at a 100 back in 2022 and he's been below average everywhere since. Players like this get chances.

They get chances to get better because they can be well above average defenders at places that matter. So I do agree with your process here. I do think Michael Ciani could be a good, very deep league sleeper. I don't know if we're ever going to look at him and say he's more than a temporary fill-in for like a 12 or a 15 team league with in-season moves, but in drafting holds and things. It's a very specific usage. I wouldn't get too excited. If you want somebody off this list that you could maybe get excited about, a little bit more excited about their bat, I would look down at Johnny DeLuca at 16th best outfielder.

That doesn't sound like it's great, but this is in center field. And so this is good defense in center field that's on par with Michael Harris and Kyle Isbell who have jobs. And Johnny DeLuca's bat has a little bit more juice to it than Siani's. And he's just about to maybe get full attempts in center field. I mean, the way that they're set up, I don't think there's a great lefty center fielder that's gonna take the job from him.

I know he's a righty, but DeLuca has the opportunity to be a full-time starter in center field for the Tampa Bay Rays. That's an interesting way to look at it. I think they're actually, DeLuca does make a little more hard contact, but they're very similar in profile. And you go back, but look at the De Luca,

look at the power he showed in the minors. It's not nothing to have that. Like the ability to either pull the fly ball or just do whatever it takes to actually unlock a little bit of power. He's shown that. The difference for me is that De Luca did it older for the level at each of his stops,

at least with Siani. You're like, well, maybe he was younger, maybe he's still gonna get a little bigger and stronger. With DeLuca, you know, probably a little more of a finished product. But speed, probably, you know, everyday job in center field, possibly, yeah. I think they're very similar to me.

I do probably like DeLuca a tad more because the power was a little more enticing when he was in the Dodger's system. DeLuca is trying to pull the ball down the line like Paredes too, so maybe without great max EVs and barrels, he still manages to get to like 12-15 homers. You mentioned the platoon risk. This has been a recurring part of our entire outfield preview series. Looks like you changed a couple things up here. You found a little tweak to what you were searching for? Yeah, well, thanks to some people in the Discord,

like there was a sanity check on the, and you did it in real time too, but Yoram Alvarez being at the top of the other one was obviously some weird trick of the query that didn't make sense. And I think what it was was I clicked that they had to be in the outfield. So I think he just didn't play that much in the outfield,

and maybe when he did play in the outfield, it was mostly against righties. You know? I don't know, maybe that was just what happened because when I took the outfield click off and I just said, give me percentage of left on left over all pitches for the season and then the list really came into focus

of all the players that you are worried about. and I also have a rule of thumb for you. We're going to put this query in the show notes and I think around 15% is where you are risk of being platoon and what I've shown here is 12% below and these guys are established, I think stuck in a platoon and never getting out. And in it is Kerry Carpenter, in it is Lamont Wade Jr., in it is Mickey Moniac, in it is Oswaldo Cabrera, you know, there's some interesting Jake Fr of and Josh Lowe. So Josh Lowe is at 12% is like the lowest that I've shown but if you are 15% or lower you're in the top quartile for being platooned and so 15% is a good number to sort of remember I think. Josh

Lowe is at 12% so I think maybe he's just in a platoon and that's who he is. So this reduces my desire to take you a little bit. This is because of keeper leagues and also even in the sort of Jock Peterson daily league situation where you know you may get in the game but you might lose that last plate appearance that's just another chance to hit a homer. So all these guys are downgraded except for one because I love him he's gonna come in my in my hard hit comps later. Yeah do you want to do the hard hit comps now because I feel like that's a perfect transition like when and why would you push back on this list I think you've got a pretty good example. Well yeah Trevor Larnock has not been

playing in the big cities that long but what he has he has shown us a strikeout rate a barrel rate and a hard hit rate that produces these comps it's pretty nasty juan soto yarn on alvarez for nano tete's jr kyle tucker anthony sandondale randall gritchick i guess trevor larnac jackson merrill larz newt bar michael harris brian reynolds wyatt langford and jaron duran. No! No! Jaren Duran! Jaren Duran. Anyway, the group hit 274 with a 220 ISO and had a 135 WRC plus as a group and you know I love him. You know I think that Larnock might be stuck in the platoon, but he's cheap and he goes among other platoon guys and I think that the twins at some point could decide crap. He's actually one of our best hitters and so we can't platoon everywhere.

They might want to platoon Matt Wallner. They have to have a guy who can replace Byron Buxton in center field for whatever reason So their bench is kind of hard to put together and at some point if you're doing the rule of five Larnac might end up in the top of the rule of five Yeah, what I've been wondering for a while now is just how effectively Larnac and Wallner can be on the same roster. They have a lot of similarities Yeah, but Larnac makes more contact, which matters. I mean, it's a better batting batter, better OVP, most likely.

I'd like to see them both in the lineup. I think you just find a way to kind of put a couple guys around them that have different approaches, that are maybe lower K-rate players, and then you can at least present opposing pitchers with a couple of wrinkles. And two guys can do a lot of damage. I think Brooks Lee and Willie Castro

are kind of what you're talking about. Yeah, I think that can work. Those are different guys that you can put around them. I mean, they do strike out a little bit more than you'd want. It'd be great if they had like 14% strikeout rates, but they are different players. And the Twins, ever since they made that deal with Carlos Carreno, Aaron Gleeman wrote about this for the athletic

They have been saying so Quiet for a couple of years now. They've make moves small trades Different things they've done are just there. It's always very cash neutral You look at that depth chart whatever grade we put on a depth chart in January in terms of it's like stickiness or permanence, they'd be at the higher end of that's probably about what you get. You know, like I would more confidently use Inc.

to write their depth chart than I would a lot of other teams just based on how they've behaved in the better part of two years now. Yeah, and that piece was really damning in terms of he added up like all of the money that they've acquired in trades and in free agency and it was like $7 million. Like over like the last three years. So yeah, I agree with you. Whatever they do next is not going to be a big one unless they harangue that cease trade.

And I think, actually, if I was the Padres and came calling, I might want one of Larnac or Walner in the cease trade. Because they have a really bad outfall situation. But that's still trading into good playing time, probably. I wouldn't worry about the playing time situation. Maybe it helps them both because it sort of protects Larnac and Walner by putting them on different depth charts where they're desperately needed for what they can bring. I think part of that rumor or report or idea, I forget which bucket that actually falls into but made a lot of sense, was yes, they get Dylan Cease but they

also move Christian Vasquez back as part of the let's make it cash neutral to give the Padres a better option behind the plate even though that's you know Very relatively speaking yeah, you could pretty you can pretty easily put this to deal together seems like C's is 13 million Vasquez is 10 million prospects you know maybe they pay a little bit more of Vasquez's deal or something to get fewer prospects or maybe they don't. Maybe they just get Cease instead of Vasquez and it costs them probably one of their pitchers

too along with Larnack because it is Cease. He's good. Should we go just, I'll name a name and you just kind of give me a sure, no, no thanks on these guys. Well let's see the bad speed one real quick. Oh I kind of give me a sure no no thanks on these guys. Let's see the bat speed one real quick. Oh I didn't give you a picture for that did I? You didn't you got to describe it. Okay so this one's just easy go to stat cast go to the bats bat tracking leaderboard reduce the amount of total swings I did a hundred and you get Stanton Cruz Cruz, John Kenzie, Noel,

Kalshawar, Jordan Walker, five, Matt Wallner, six, Junior Caminero, seven, Aaron Judge, eight, Gérard Encarnacion, nine. And that's an interesting way to find guys that do have top end power potential. Garrett Mitchell, 22nd in bat speed. Joe Adele, 11th. Matt Chapman, even in his decline phase, 12th.

So this is, I think, a great place to look for power flyers. And so Noel and Carnacion, who could add first base eligibility for the Giants. I mean, the Giants first base situation right now is Lamont Way Jr. who was on the always platooned list. Wilmer Flores, I really like him as a person, but I think there's always a DFA chance

in the last year of a deal at his age. And then Encarnacion who's also third on the DH list was Wilmer Flores, Elliot Ramos, who has defensive value. And you might want to just still play him out there. And then Gerard third. So he's third on two of the most jankiest depth chart situations on an OK team in baseball. I didn't know that Garrett Mitchell was on this list.

I had not previously looked at this leaderboard. So that's a pleasant surprise that sort of tacks on to part three of our outfield series looking at how Garrett Mitchell stacks up To some of the other guys going around him. That's encouraging I also find it extra weird that Trey cabbage was top 20 in bat speed and the Pirates Decided to just take some money and let him go pursue it overse opportunity when he may have actually a good opportunity. I think they're like, we kind of have Jack Swinski already. I don't know, I saw some similarities in Swinski and Cabbage.

Well, I also got Billy Cook, too. You gotta let Billy Cook. I did poke around and there was an interaction between, I think there was an interaction between the Pirates and the team. There isn't always. Like, when you see a quick turnaround like that on waiver claim and then the player goes to Japan

or whatever, that suggests that probably there was some sort of communication going on. Like, hey, can you pick that player for us basically and we'll have some sort of back and forth. If there's a guy who's a free agent who's sitting there, like if Ty France sends in Japan now, or that sort of situation, there's or you know that sort of situation There's no interaction if he gets released and then there's the three weeks later. He signs in Japan. That's that's a different situation

I wonder how many players that have a last name that is shared with a country could sign in other countries. That'd be great The bigger her mom and signs in Japan Thai France. I gotta think more about that You're the the Milwaukee outfield situation is interesting because Blake Perkins also showed up on the elite glove list Yeah, Blake Perkins is a great defender man Yeah, so you have you have in Milwaukee like sort of like they have these roles You're like Blake Perkins is the elite glove guy Garrett Garrett Mitchell is the upside guy. Freelick is is the contact guy, you know, and Cheerios, the stud who's in there all the time. So I'm not exactly sure how they appropriate playing time between Mitchell, Perkins and Freelick, though. But they've talked about Freelick playing third, which they haven't necessarily filled

because you're moving Joey Ortiz to short, most likely. So if they do that, that creates another spot in the corner mix where maybe Tyler Black's glove plays better, right? Maybe he's an option in left field instead of first base. So there's like, what other little path for Tyler Black just to work him back into this conversation. The basic problem in Milwaukee is third base

and that can be solved in any number of ways that creates opportunities. This is basically what you're saying. I mean, because it could be Durban at second, Tarang at short, Overtee's at third, right? Could be Tyler Black at second, could be Tyler Black at right, Sal Freelick at third.

I mean, I think that's why they haven't made a big move to cover it, is that we have a lot of different ways that we can cover it. Right, if the right thing comes along, a discounted free agent trade opportunity, then they'll make that move. If they don't, then they'll just shift pieces around and kind of see what happens maybe make that trade in season. They're pretty active as far as moves

they make during the year if you look back at what they've done even going back to the Sterns era. The other outfielders in this group Heston Kirstad kind of stands out to me as another hey we've been waiting when is the opportunity coming you know projections for Heston Kerstad are still good. 108 WRC plus or better looking at the sets over at Fangraphs right now, as high as 115 from ATC. Another guy that you look at and say, I'm not sure he's got a whole lot left to prove at AAA because he's spent 132 games there now, and he's been great at that level.

It's a depth chart problem. I mean, oops, he has him as the 10th best WRC Plus projected, behind Kobe Mayo, but most importantly, well behind Ryan Mountcastle and Ryan O'Hern. It's an embarrassment of riches, really, is how I would see it. And I think he might be headed towards,

it's not the Kyle Stowers future, but it is in that he's going to bounce up and around until he's a little bit older than people think. I mean, he already is 25. And either Ryan O'Hern goes kaput and he just kind of slides into that role, or Kirstad is the guy who goes in a trade. Yeah, I'm still kind of interested though. I think there's been enough good in the limited samples and being that Kirstad is a lefty, even if it ends up being a big side platoon with the

Orioles, I think that could be fine for as late as he goes in a lot of situations. It's a little bit weird though that the combination of swing strike rate and maxi V's you know it haven't been that good in the last two years you know maxi V's under 110 hard hit rates look okay the hard hit rates are actually pretty good but these swing strike rates have been sort of 13 to 15 percent over the last two years for him so I don't think he's to have a necessary plus batting average. He could have a decent OVP and maybe he's a guy who gets to his power more than has like amazing raw power.

Right. Maybe it's more like twenty five to thirty home run power at his peak with two sixty sort of averages. Good player, not a superstar, but pretty good for this late in the draft. If it were to happen here in twenty twenty five, you mentioned John Kenzie Noel already really like what he brings to the table. They need power there. Max Kepler in Philly. You've liked Max Kepler for a while. How do you like the fit there?

I think the ballpark is going to help him a lot. And in daily leagues, you know, I think he will be platoon pretty hard because they've got Marsha and Rojas. They have the ability to platoon. And one thing you noticed, you know, one think he will be platoon pretty hard because they've got Marsh and Rojas They have the ability to platoon and one thing you noticed, you know One thing that I came away with when I did that lefty versus lefty thing I hand picked the names out that were not outfielders just because we're doing an outfielder show and I only picked like one or two guys out Like I took jock Peterson and somebody else out, you know, like it was, it was, it was really like all outfielders.

So at this point you're like judging Max Kepler against other platoon outfielders. And if you do that, you're like, Oh, well, you know, he does not strike out much. He's going to a new park that's going to help his power. He's always been like a pull fly ball guy, like it could really work out to where he gets you 20 homers and a 250 average in two thirds of playing time. Is there a reason to be excited about Jordan Beck?

I mean we talked about Chris Bryant and even though things are, I think there's something here man, like the K rates were not that bad at AAA last year. 23. It's a little wonky as we know with the ABS there. He's shown some lower level K rates that aren't that bad. He takes his walks. He's got power.

He's got speed. Underlying power supported by a 46% hard hit rate last year in the minors. It's like a quarter season. But man, if your obstacle to playing every day is Sam Hilliard and or Chris Bryant and there's another spot where those guys could also play, if you're the Rockies, how do you not give that time to Jordan Beck? It's kind of fun too that he is a right-hander

because I feel like a right-hander with three options, the choice is that he will either be in the big leagues playing most of the time or he'll be in the minors. It's not likely that he'll end up in a platoon role on the major leagues. Small side platoon at 23 years old with options? I don't think so. Yeah. I think there's a shot at a regular role and it could pay off because there's a lot of ways Jordan Beck can contribute in roto leagues. How about Colby Thomas with the A's?

How do you see the playing time shaking out with their outfield options? That left field situation in Oakland is bad. Right now it's, you know, they say it's Andahar and Seth Brown and Seth Brown is 32 and has been below league average with the stick the last two years in fact He's been below replacement overall like I don't think Seth Brown is making it to opening day as the starter there and

Andrew has been claimed and released by a lot of places. So this is a really soft situation Which I think you know the Oakland's like yeah I don't we're not worried about it because you know know, maybe Asturio Ruiz looks great and we can push him to the day to left and solved, you know? Or maybe Ando Harv does find the Fountain of Youth or maybe Colby Thomas steps forward and takes the job. 24 years old, does strike out too much, but does everything else pretty well and had a pretty amazing season by sort of raw results last year 277 with 31 homers and 15 stolen bases and 575 plate appearances I mean one thing you can tell right away is that he played

enough that he can play a full season in the major leagues that's sometimes a question with guys coming up through the minors but he's paid nearly a 600 plate appearance season, had a 131 WRC plus that was a little bit lower in AAA, 117 in AAA. I think it would be a low batting average. It'd be Seth Brownish, but younger with more speed, more defensive ability, and more upside

to be better than Seth Brown. Yeah, I think Colby Thomas could be exciting. I like the fit there, given the lack of established options atop that depth chart. And Duhar, aside from being released multiple times or waved multiple times, health concerns, like major time loss to injuries over the years as well. You've talked about the Marlins.

I think Kyle Stowers kind of stands out as a very late option that could end up playing a lot. I mean, they may have played him in center field. I actually see the Marlins, I think Kyle Stowers kind of stands out as a very late option that could end up playing a lot. I mean, they may play them in center field. I actually see the Marlins treating Stowers similar to the way that the A's treat JJ Bleday, where they just say, hey, maybe you're not a center fielder in the eyes of a lot of other clubs. You can be a center fielder here and you can play every day. And that gives us another option to try somebody in left field like Griffin Conine or, you know, or, you know know Derek Hill or any of these guys that we're kind of cycling through right now

Sometimes it makes sense just to take your guy that you want to see the most of and just stick him at a defensive position So that you kind of make it easy on the manager Okay, Stowers are a center fielder and we're rotating through right fielders. Just remember it that way, you know Yeah, I don't think he's going to be bad out there. I think the expectation was that he'd be better in the corner than in center, right? Because he's more of like an average runner and the scouting reports had him as maybe a future 55 field. It's not ridiculous to put him in center field.

It just seemed like he was more likely to be corner in the long run. But sometimes those guys end up being okay in center for a little while. And he's not, St Stowers isn't young, he just turned 27 in January, so I think they'd really wanna see what they have. Like just give him a full run. I don't know if his quality of contact is good enough to support the swing strike and the strikeout rates he has.

Like it so far it hasn't been. A 10% barrel rate is fine, but a 10% barrel rate is like, oh, I want you to be striking out 25% of the time. You know what I mean? A 10% barrel rate with a 33.8% strikeout rate is barely, it's barely working. I think it's gonna work out all right for Stowers

in the short term, given the situation in Miami. I mean, 56.5% hard hit rate at AAA in 2023, he was up at 44% last year. Even in the big leagues, 51.3% hard hit rate at AAA in 2023, he was up at 44% last year. Even in the big leagues, 51.3% hard hit rates with a K rate like that is, it's good enough to have a high K rate, it's probably not good enough to have a 35. But projections all have him down around 30% with the K rate,

he walks enough to be okay in OVP. I think that plays in Miami given the current state. I mean, they're hitting a hard reset on that roster right now. So the bar is pretty low to get a significant share of playing time for the Marlins in 2025. I think Kyle Stowers can clear it. Anybody else here near the bottom?

I don't know, Alex Verdugo, we were looking at free agent lists and he's basically the only left-hander that could sign into a starting role that's left on the market. We have some right-handers that could steal people's jobs in the small side like Jason Hayward There isn't really a free agent out there that's projected to be league average That's gonna steal somebody's job anymore outfield is is all dried up Basically, which makes it better for like somebody like Luke Rayleigh like, you know. Maybe a trade will change their situation, but I think his playing time is good,

and he's an elite power speed guy that people just don't know about. And if you could have him in a league where he's a backup and you play him when you need to, and maybe you play him away from home where he doesn't strike out as much, and you don't play him when he's facing a lot of lefties, I think Luke Railey can can definitely help you in the same way Dylan Moore is eligible

everywhere you know and so if you just want to have somebody in your deeper league that's like on your bench that can paper over a short-term problem somewhere I still like Dylan Moore I look at the depth chart in New York and I think Jeff McNeil will at least start the season as the starter. I'm not as sold as Luis Angel Acuña as maybe some people are. And Jeff McNeil's a really boring option there. And I think that they might start with boring

and if they have problems, shake it up and do the young guys. It's actually appropriate to talk about Billy Cook for a minute before we go. I know it's been a running joke. It's been a running joke. I don't know how he appeared in several infield previews exactly.

I'll never understand what really happened to make that possible. But if most of our conversations about the Pirates are, they don't have their established five, the rule of five, the five guys that are going to play every day and you mix and match everywhere else. We really don't know who their five are right now. Billy Cook split last year between two organizations and even had some time at AA.

Most of the season he played at AAA. Started the year with the Orioles, finished the year with the Pirates. Four hundred and thirty played appearances at AAA. Sixteen homers, 21 steals. He was caught six times. A little bit more swing and miss after the trade with the Pirates, but has flashed occasionally the ability to have a manageable K-rate. I'm referring to 2023 at double ace, but the whole year at that level, 25% K-rate. A little old for the level. And then even last year, the combined was 23.5.

Yeah. So old for the level, concerns about the quality. Even last year, the combined was 23.5. Yeah, so old for the level, concerns about the quality of minor league pitching, kind of baked in these last couple of years, I get it. He's actually been above average at every stop, other than high A in 2022. He's been good, despite the strikeout rate. He has a lot of ways to help us, man. So you'd be revising that WRC plus downward.

Chippin' away at it. But, where was he gonna go in Baltimore in that rebuild? Like a very blocked sort of player too, right? Like priority wise, wasn't gonna take spots from a lot of the more highly regarded prospects. I think stranger things have happened, man. I think the Billy Cook randomness,

it could actually work for him in Pittsburgh. He could be a useful, very deep league fantasy fantasy player. Yeah I still have some love for Jack Sawinski because you know he does have good bat speed he has you know showed great barrel rates and he improved his strikeout rate a little bit last year and I could see him sort of putting together at 26 but you know a Jack Sawinski Jorge Palacios, Joshua Palacios, who's 29 and projected to be below league average of the bat and doesn't really have

a standout skill other than maybe contact, you know, I think that that's a pretty soft portion of the death chart, so. Reynolds and O'Neill Cruz are ensconced, but right field is open for business. Are you ready to be hurt by Jack Soinski again? I've taken him as my last outfielder in draft and holds. And I just want to point out that something

that's kind of cool about the end of this list, there are some guys here who are infield, outfield eligible, and I love taking those guys late because I need to cover two positions. Ezekiel Duran I think will play I mean we don't know exactly what Evan Carter is going to do in terms of platooning in Texas but he's a platoon candidate you know Duran last year played 285 played appearances year before 439 Jung you know, hurt a lot. You know, Jung is

hurt a lot at third. They have different places where Duran just shows up and you're like, oh thank God we have this guy who's, you know, cromulent and can play at a position where we just had a major injury. So, and they just got Jock Peterson who is a only versus lefty, only versus righty hitters, righty pitchers as the DH. So Durant could be the platoon at DH. So I think he'll make the team. He's a pasted over for a lot of their positions

and he is third base and outfield eligible. You know, Connor Joe does that, but he doesn't have a job right now. Mark Kanna does that for the first base and outfield, but he doesn't have a job. So, you know, among those three, when you're looking at late infield outfield options, I think Duran is underrated.

Perhaps some February signings, so free agent additions for a few teams rounding out their rosters among the names that you just mentioned there. But yeah, I do look for the guys that qualify at multiple spots at the very, very end. A lot of times you can get a corner with the outfield or middle at the outfield. That adds a little bit to that last spot or two

on your roster. I also did something really weird in one league, just real quick, I did, I had, let's see who was it, Myers, McCormick, and Melton as my five through eight outfield, or six through eight outfielders. So you're pretty actively against the Alex Bregman reunion that would push Jose Altuve into an outfield spot? I was nervous about Profar signing with them, but I actually think looking at their finances

that they are tapped out. I'm betting against Bregman and I'm betting against Profar. So far so good. But it also gives you that idea that sometimes you can platoon or like sort of handcuff Outfield situations and buy twice into an outfield when it makes sense in a draft and hold like that By three get to by to at least get one That's the goal at least just kind of cover that spot and make sure you get someone playing every day available Or if you just don't know which guy's gonna be better in some cases because they're very similar in terms of what they bring to

The table there's one way around it in these deep leagues that have the 50 roster spots We are going to go on our way out the door a reminder You can join our discord with the link in the show description inside the discord You can find the links to all of the hive mind rankings we've done so far including the UT only which just went up today Pitcher week begins on Tuesday. Yeah baby, thanks for listening. Studs!