Rates & Barrels - A One-Year Snapshot of Surprising Hitters (Good and Bad)

Episode Date: June 30, 2025

Eno and DVR discuss an IL stint for Jeremy Peña, a health issue that has forced Ron Washington to step away from managing the Angels for the duration of the 2025 season, and the passing of Hall of Famer Dave Parker at the age 74. Plus, they take a look at the rolling one-year leaderboard for hitters in hopes of finding long-term trade targets on the struggling side, and a few pleasant surprises, before discussing where the money went with free-agent pickups this week.Rundown2:49 Jeremy Peña to the IL w/Rib Fracture4:59 Checking in on the Angels as Ron Washington Steps Down for the Rest of 202513:16 Dave Parker Passes Away at Age 7418:15 One-Year Leaderboard: Struggling Hitters27:56 Adley Rutschman: A Year Packed w/Injuries33:55 Top-10 wOBA Surprises: Eugenio Suárez, Cal Raleigh & Brent Rooker36:05 Riley Greene v. Corbin Carroll; Is Average Undervalued In Many Leagues?43:57 Mookie Betts: 2024 Injury & 2025 Illness Dragging Production Down50:04 Where the Money Went: Roster Spackle GaloreFollow Eno on Bluesky: @enosarris.bsky.socialFollow DVR on Bluesky: @dvr.bsky.sociale-mail: [e-mail] our Discord: https://discord.gg/FyBa9f3wFeSubscribe to The Athletic: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrelsHosts: Derek VanRiper & Eno SarrisProducer: Brian SmithExecutive Producer: Derek VanRiper Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

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Get a free bedding bundle when you buy now at loganandcove.ca slash podcast. Welcome to Rates and Barrels, it is Monday, June 30th, Derek VanRyper, Inosaris with you on this episode. We've got a little bit of baseball news you should know, including an injury that has sent Jeremy Pena to the IL, a critically important part of that Astros lineup especially as they've spent a lot of time in this first half without Jordán Alvarez. We learned of the passing of Hall of Famer Dave Parker. We'll talk a little bit about Parker here in just a few minutes.

We're going to take a look at the rolling one-year leaderboard for hitters because it's June 30th. Where is our summer going? Where did the first half of 2025 go? You know, this year is flying by. Time is going too fast right now. That's right. It's time to look at people who had their halves in a weird way, you know, like the good second half and the good first half and really had a great year, but we under the cover maybe or a bad year. There's a couple of ones on the bad list that

I was a little surprised by. The bad list is I think a group of players that are true longer term buy lows for the most part you're actually getting a discount right now. You can actually get them if you want them if you want them. If you want them many of them can be acquired via trade and probably are tradable in real life too and we'll see some surprise names moved at the trade deadline here in just about a month. And as we do every Monday, we will get into where the money went. Look at what we did with our teams over the weekend from a free agent perspective. If you haven't done so already, join the Discord. You can do that with the link in the show description.

That's a great way to send us mailbag questions for a future episode and to hang out with us as well as other listeners and viewers of the show. If you're watching us on YouTube, smash that like button and subscribe to the YouTube channel if you haven't done so already. Lots of good stuff rolling out there pretty much every day throughout the week. So that's pretty nice to have that going.

Think about where we started. Yeah, time flies. Look back at the original YouTube content we were putting out. We had some beautiful thumbnails back in the day. So we've really come a long way. They weren't very good. Eno once made shirtless Tyler O'Neill pop up out of a cake, which I feel like given your level,

a Photoshop was actually a pretty big achievement. It didn't look great, but it was fun to make. It was funny. I enjoyed it. I thought it was hilarious. In the day of AI, I could just be like, give me Tyler O'Neill jumping out of a cake. And it would give us Tyler O'Neill, maybe with six or seven fingers.

Yeah, with lobster claws or yeah, like it's still not worth the energy that goes into it, it sounds like at this point. But hey, let's get to some baseball news you should know. Jeremy Pena goes on the IL with a small fracture in his ribs, the move is retroactive to just prior to the weekend. So we'll see how long this takes to heal.

As I've said recently, we're in that sweet spot before the all-star break right now. We're just about any injury. It looks like one, you're gonna say, is a return post-break because why would you try to squeeze yourself back into the lineup for a couple of games with the possibility of aggravating something and taking an injury like this that's really,

a lot of times, like a pain tolerance sort of thing. Why risk making that worse with the possibility of a few extra days off without games looming on the horizon? But I guess the question is for the duration of Peña's absence is there anybody you see picking up enough playing time to become irrelevant and to become a more critical part of that lineup temporarily? I guess it's Marisa Dubon who's taking over. I don't know that I'm excited to pick him up. He's a really great player to have on your team because he raises the replacement

level. But he's never been a league average player in any given year. Although he has 20, 23, but it'd be close if they'd given him more time. Yeah, he's like a 90 ish WRC plus 86 WRC plus Marissa DeBond for his career with pretty good defense. So I think he will play and I think he will hit 250 with very little power or speed. So it's really just a deep league if you're just scratching around needing plate appearances is the idea here, I think. Yeah, I think it's more of the mono league appeal, 15 team spackle. Like if you got Mauricio Dubon in a draft in a hole,

maybe that pops him into your lineup at one spot where you've got some injury trouble that has piled up. Hopefully we'll see Pena back here in just a couple of weeks, given the way they describe that as a small fracture in his ribs, still I'm sure a painful injury nonetheless. Staying in the AL West,

we learned that Ron Washington will not return to managing this season due to health reasons. And first and foremost, all the best to wash. That was obviously the sentiment from the players that have talked about this in the last few days since that that news dropped. And, you know, the Angels were one of those teams, you know, that we started to talk about, I think, in passing when we were looking at the playoff picture

in the AL last week. And they weren't a large part of that conversation because by odds, they are not expected to be a playoff team, but by record, they have exceeded expectations, I think, for some folks. And they're in a better spot than most would have expected them to be at this point. Just one game below 500, 41 and 42.

You know, it's eight and a half back of the Astros in the West, but they're no more out of the playoff picture than the Rangers, who I think you and me and Jed all sort of liked as a team capable of making a run. Now, as far as the adjustments, you know, without Wash on the bench as the manager, it's gonna be Ray Montgomery as the interim manager, Ryan Goins as the new bench Wash on the bench as the manager. It's going to be Ray Montgomery as the interim manager, Ryan Goins as the new bench coach for the Angels

here on out, beyond this season. There's no information yet. What do you think about this Angels team? Are they improperly being ignored and overlooked right now? We talked about Yusei Kikuchi a few weeks ago with Trevor and I think since that conversation, the switch has flipped and he's looked a lot more like the guy that we saw in the second half

or post trade deadline last year with Houston than he was for the first six weeks or so of this season. Yeah, but he's only one man. I mean, it's a difficult rotation there. They have a minus 49 run differential, the Angels do. And it's basically because their pitching staff is allowing 4.9 runs a game and just to tell you how bad that is the only teams that are worse are the A's Marlins and Nationals, Diamondbacks, Rockies, you know Orioles so they're not in a good space there in terms of giving runs up and

They're projected to have Problems there as well. I just think that it's the same old story for the angels. It's pitching They basically have two pitchers that I trust in Kakuchi and I don't even know how much I trust Jose Soriano To be honest, but I trust him more than the other guys in that rotation. Detmers has been a revelation as a reliever and that may buy him a ticket out of town. And I like Zephyr John a little bit, but it's one of those bullpens that's like slightly better than you think.

You thought it was terrible. It's mediocre. I'm sorry. That was really mean, but the lineup is turning to something. There's some benefit. They do do something well as a team in terms of hitting the ball hard. Second highest barrel rate in big leagues.

That's surprising. I probably, if you said who's number of two in barrel rate and you've given me 10 guesses, I don't think I would have used one on the Angels, which says something's going right. Someone deserves credit, whether that's in roster construction, coaching, player development,

some combination of those three things. I guess we've been long-term skeptics of Nolan Schanuel and he's been good. He's been adding a little bit. His max CV used to be down in Luis Araya's territory. Now at a 109.8 max. EV this year, I believe that he could be a 15 homer guy. I feel like he could be a 110 WRC plus guy,

just a barely above average first baseman. I don't know what kind of free agent deal he'll get, but that's something you want on your team in the short run. So he's been good. Neto's been even better than I expected and I had high hopes for him. Ohapi's good. Adele is having maybe a breakout season.

The interesting thing is that, you know, he still has all the flaws we had, but finally kind of having a longer run, he's been able to shave just enough off the strikeout rate and put enough balls and play Adele has to like. Oh yeah this is legit power we should know this all along we did unfortunately is not stealing as much cuz probably cuz the hips that are hurting him so he's already losing some of that peak you know fantasy value. losing some of that peak fantasy value for Joe Adele. But I think he'll come out of this year with 30 homers and maybe 10 steals and a 240 average and be a top 30 outfielder. Yeah, that looks like the direction he's going for sure.

And I guess it's going to come down to whether or not they play well enough to avoid becoming sellers at the deadline, right? If they play well and keep the band together, maybe even add a couple of pieces, there's always the chance that they're the low probability team that can find its way into the playoffs. I just think as you said, top the pitching,

the pitching is the thing that I can't see coming together. They have to go get pitching and I'm not sure they're built to go get impact pitching. Maybe they don't need impact pitching and they just buy they just feed at the bottom and get one of these get you there types that's actually really cheap on the market. And maybe they just fill that out, and instead of Kyle Hendricks or whatever, they find Kahanovic, I think, could maybe

go down to the minor leagues and put some time in there because there are times when, you know, he uses a secondaries and the strikeout rate inches forward a little bit. And I think maybe he has a shot at being a big league starting pitcher. But right now, you know, the strikeout rate, the walk rate, the mix they just get, hey, a capable number four or five type, send Kahana what's down and do what they can in September. And there's always, even though we speak probabilistically and we use these probabilities, there's always a team that outperforms their plus minus. There's always a team that for whatever reason

just wins the close ones. And I could see the Angels you know pulling something off like that it would be to the total consternation of Mariners fans it would be so annoying. By the way the weirdest stat of the weekend or at least what I think is the weirdest stat of the weekend has to be the Angels intentionally walking James Wood four times in a game? What? James Wood's great, but really?

Yeah. I mean, that's one thing is that there's definitely a strain of sort of old school managing, even with Ron Washington out, you know, they have a sort of old school philosophy in the Angels organization that, you know, I know from sourcing, but also we can see pretty easily from the outside, has been impossible to unroot. They did hire a bunch of more progressive, data-friendly pitching coaches, and then they fired them two years later

when a former player said, "'Why does everybody have their iPads out?'' So, it doesn't surprise me at all, actually. I can't say I've had any teams., you know, it doesn't surprise me at all. Actually, like I was like, they bought computers and they didn't plug them in. Yeah, right. If there was a team that would would intentionally walk a rookie four times,

then it might be them. Yeah. So I think it's still an uphill battle because of the pitching in particular, but an angels team that's at least a little more of a problem when they show up on your schedule, you would have maybe expected to be the beginning of the season the breakout of Adele the progress of Shaunuel among the reasons why that is the case. The sad news we learned over the weekend Dave Parker Hall of Famer passed away at the age of 74 after a long battle with Parkinson's and Dave Parker is one of those players you know that his career was ending right around the time I started collecting baseball cards and

watching games so I remember him so much more as an old face on a baseball card rather than someone I got to watch play but the more I learned about his career and the more I learned about his life I kind of feel like he was ahead of his time in some ways. Michael Clare from MLB.com had this great piece looking back at a classic saying from Dave Parker. If you hear any noise, it's just me and the boys boppin'. And there's a picture of him standing in his locker with that as a custom T-shirt back in 1976, man.

Like this is pre-rota wear, pre-tea spring, breaking tea, all those shirts that everybody's got now where every funny thing that gets said ends up on a shirt. And Dave Parker ahead of his time in that regard and obviously a Hall of Famer selected by the Heiress committee at the past winter meetings would have been, will be inducted into Cooperstown of course next month, unfortunately, passed away before getting a chance to deliver that speech and be a part of that proceeding. But man, what a talent and what a personality. Yeah, I sort of got into baseball around 1986.

1985, he won the very first home run derby with six homers in the final round. I think the rules have changed a little since then, but you know, 1985, that was, uh, 84, 85 was a bit of a resurgence for him. He had some dark times in the early eighties that affected his career long numbers to the point where he wasn't, when he first came up on the ballot, you know, his old school numbers in an old school electorate with the BBWA did not see fit to put him in with 339 career homers, even with the nice batting average, the, you know, career 120 WRC plus, I think even even then, like, you know, numbers wise, he's not he doesn't make the clearest argument for the Hall of Fame. But impact wise, he was a real character, just really outspoken, fairly arrogant, just a guy that added to the pageantry of baseball at the time just really had a lot to say and was willing to

say it, you know, in a way that I think current stars across sports don't do as much anymore. You know, they're just, they're incentivized not to say a lot because if they say a lot, it gets, it's, it's diced up all over social media and there's, you know, four cable channels that'll spend all day talking about what you said. And you know, then you start to have field phone calls from your agent and like, you know, your publicist is like, why'd you say that? And you know, it's just like, because I just wanted to be human and emote. Yeah. But now we create these stars that, and I don't think it's actually just a baseball problem. They're talking about it over in

basketball. I follow basketball and they're wondering why all their stars are boring. It's literally the conversation over on the basketball side. And I'm like, ooh, this sounds familiar. I know about this one. I thought Derek Jeter had just started a whole thing, but nope. I think it's because of interacting with media and social media that people just don't want to say things like Dave Parker. What did Dave Parker say?

He's like, put me up against, put my numbers up against Willie Mays and mine are better. Yeah, his first five years against Roberto Clemente and Willie Mays and he later, it was an SI story, later in the story, he said the only thing bigger than me is my ego. Yeah, like can you imagine who would say a thing like that right now? Yeah, we've moved into a different approach to the media from the vast majority of professional athletes right now. It's, I don't know, that sort of honesty

and that level I think would be refreshing today. But you're right, it would be met with instant reaction, harsh in one direction or another, regardless of where it was coming from. But yeah, I think the overall achievements of Parker though, too, like an all-round player that I think was a lot better than I realized when I was a little kid, right? A three-time gold glover. He won a couple of batting titles.

You mentioned that home run derby. He was a seven-time All-Star when the All-Star rosters were smaller. He won an MVP. He had three Silver Slugger awards. He won the World Series twice. Like this is a guy that had a fantastic career on top of bringing that huge personality to the game as well. So Dave Parker gone at the age of 74. When does fast grocery delivery through Instacart matter most? When your famous grainy mustard potato salad isn't so famous without the grainy mustard.

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Learn more at calgaryeconomicdevelopment.com. Let's move the focus over to the rolling one year leaderboard surprises that we teased up top. Do you want to go to the bad place first? Do you want to go to the good place? That is the question. Let's end on a high note. Let's go to the bad place first? Or do you want to go to the good place? That is the question. Let's end on a high note. Let's go to the bottom of the leaderboard first.

Hit me with the bad stuff. Here we go. Hit me with the bad stuff. It's Wednesday morning. Let's see it. Someone's got a case of the Mondays. Number one is just such a gut punch for me. Number one, worst player in the last year.

You know who it is. Joey Orteez. Worst by Wobba. Yeah, sorting by Wobba. We're not using WRC Plus because that's park adjusted, so Wobba. He's waking up. The last couple weeks are better. Right. Oh, it's okay.

There's time to turn this around. It's interesting. The screen shows exactly 10 players right now, which is kind of beautiful. Joey Ortiz, the lowest in terms of Woba over the past calendar year among qualified hitters. Luis Robert, who just went on the IL I believe with a hamstring strain. Oh Jesus, did he? Yeah, that was just another weekend injury thing.

It popped up last week and then they IL'd him in the last few days. He's second worst during that span. Yeah, he's zero shares, so I don't track him that hard. But people have been asking me, like, should I buy him or should I drop him? And I, I know as bad as it looks by Woba and the 209 batting average.

Yes, I agree. That's bad. 14 homers and 42 stolen bases. I would suggest he probably has an above water fantasy value in your league. Yeah. The Roto value versus the real life value. Wildly different. I think the number that really jumps off the page, though, aside from the low woe buys, that Louise Roberts got a 32.1% strikeout rate.

But also that 118 ISO does in combo. I think that's going to hurt his trade value. Like, do I want a center fielder who strikes out that much and doesn't have power? Probably not. The counting stats are bad for a few reasons. Low OVP is obviously part of it. Not getting to the power enough with that low slug. Bad run on the eye for fantasy.

Yeah, it makes you wonder. I thought maybe the window for the White Sox was to trade him before this season because it's a team friendly deal and beauty's in the eye of the beholder, you get the whole league to possibly trade with. So all of those things seemed like it would have been better. Especially with the injury, he's got a month before the trade deadline

to try and get teams excited about him again. And he's gonna be out for three of those weeks. You know, it's like, you might actually, I wonder if you would root for him to stay there. Because like you wouldn't want him to go to New York if unless it like, oh yes, all of a sudden he's, you know, trying harder and you know, playing better. But that's a bad park for him. And if he's not like a 118 ISO doesn't usually even suggest you have 14 homers.

In some ways, I'd be like, maybe this is good for his value. He's going to stay in Chicago and stay in that nice park and hit some homers. And maybe he's still trying to recover to get it. I mean, he's trying to get out. I'm pretty sure. So I guess if you're a 10 team, where you just want to drop them because of the injury and everything, I doubt he's going to get traded at this point. You just laid the case out for how would you trade for Luis Robert Jr. right now? You don't even know he's healthy. Yeah, I think it's another few months of waiting and maybe if he was able to come back

and play well for two months with the White Sox, then we see an off season trade. But one of the more challenging players to figure out just in terms of what is his floor and what is his present ceiling and in that 14 homer 42 steel combo over the past calendar year is still something for the fantasy side, but low batting average bad counting stats. It's an unusual profile to say the least. some players on this list because three is Andres Jimenez, five is Adley Rutchman, six is Kavit Ruiz, seven is Michael Harris II, and eighth is Anthony Volpe. I would suggest that as bad as they've been in the last four

years, they are like Joey Ortiz, slightly more playing time safe than you might think given this list because they play premium defensive positions and play them well. I know Michael Harris the second has set against two lefties He may be a platoon player for right now They're also just trying to the others there's quotes today on social media about how he's trying to rediscover Some parts of his swing and he's he's working on on changing his approach a little bit and all that stuff So I think Harris is still an okay by low and dynasties and redrafts I don't know, you know, could be just the last year.

Again, 239 batting average, 17 homers, 13 stolen bases over the last year with 71 RBI. Like I don't think Harris, he's probably near zero in most fantasy leagues too, if maybe even positive fantasy value. Jimenez still has 26 stolen bases, you know, to go with his eight homers. So I know that this is bad, but I could see a case for acquiring a lot of the players on this list. Robert is actually the hardest for me. Joey Ortiz, you're just, it has to be a deep league because even the upside is not great for 10 and 12s, you know? But Andres Jimenez, like, do I want a 30 stolen base,

second baseman right now? Like there are teams that are like, that's exactly what I need right now. Second base sucks. I'm going to go get him. Michael Harris do I want? Like a 15-15 guy? Yeah, maybe that helps. Volpe's had pretty good ups and downs. Maybe you just get him and he gets back on an up.

I think so. I think with Volpe, he's probably the second most challenging player for me to figure out behind Luis Robert. Given his age, given the combinations of skills, we tried to Frankenstein the best versions of Anthony Volpe in terms of approach and skills together and think, okay, this is our reason to believe that he could unlock everything. He has the second best strikeout rate of his career with the second best swing strike rate of his career with the second best barrel rate of his career and the best maxi V. So

like in some ways he did what we wanted him to and he's still hitting 228. It's almost like Volpi instead of so I know Jeremy Pena is having a really good year. Volpi looks more like a Jeremy Pena right now than than a top 50 pick top You know first five rounds sort of fantasy pick like that's that's the level he's playing at 15 team MI That's not really a shortstop anymore. Yeah, like I still gonna have some use. Yeah It's just that the the expectation of him being more than that has left us disappointed And I guess I would love to know, since he's playing a ton,

like he has the benefit because of his defense of getting that high volume playing time. When are we gonna feel good about saying that ceiling's not what we thought it was? Are we at that point? Are we approaching that point? Or is it still a year or two into the future? We're getting pretty close.

I mean, it's 1600 played appearances and he did what we wanted him to do. I think to some extent, this is the future. We're getting pretty close. I mean it's 1600 played appearances and he did what we wanted him to do. I think to some extent this is the ceiling. 311 OVP this year. The full year numbers still include last year's approach right? So this year he's got a 311 OVP 412 slugging, 103 WRC plus. He's on pace to basically do 230, 2020. That's the better version of him. Maybe he has a year where the Babbitt pops a little bit and like he does a little bit of a Pena like, oh, now he's hitting 275, 20, 25, 25.

Like maybe he could do that in like a, almost like a luck driven year, like just have better luck in a year. But in terms of true talent, I sort of believe him as like a slightly above average offense, good shortstop. Like he probably doesn't get a great free agent deal. He's years away still, right? Two, three, three years away. Yeah, maybe he makes maybe make some adjustments to them. If this is who this is who he is, because and free agency, they're like, well,

he's not a shortstop anymore. So what are we paying like a 95 WRC plus second baseman? Yeah, that won't be great if that's the way it goes for Volpe. So maintaining elite defense at shortstop, I think will go a long way toward determining just what that contract looks like. And I'll have Volpe shares next year at MI and 15 teamers because he'll be cheap. And I'll just say, hey, you know, we pay for 230 15 15 and we hope he hits 260 20 20 or 260 25 25, you know, like,

you have to recalculate sometimes. Sometimes people are like, oh, he's a bum because he's not the guy I thought he was gonna be, you know, and it's like, all right, then I'll take him, you know, for a dollar at the end of the auction or whatever it is. Yeah, that was my point of saying he's more like a Peña. Like the disappointment in Peña was relative

to things he did right at the outset of his career. Didn't mean he was a bad player, just he's very solid, but doesn't have that superstar sort of ceiling that people might've thought a couple of years ago. I think that's kind of where I'm at with Anthony Volpe at this point. Adley Rutchman's the other name on this list that we know he had an injury

from about this time forward last year. It was I think a foul tip that hit him and he just wasn't quite the same guy in the second half. And I mean, what do we make of Adley Rutchman at this point? Is this an actual long-term, by-low opportunity, given that he's hurt again right now, if you're playing for the future? Thinking about two catcher leagues especially,

but even a single catcher league, I still see a ceiling of a guy that is maybe top five at the position, but maybe I'm wrong. Maybe I'm tying too much into past performance and not enough into the more more recent stuff We're seeing there is good and bad. The the bad is 24th percentile bat speed He also just really lets the ball travel and I think That is there's a little bit of passivity in his game

I would like him to be a little bit more aggressive and try to get the ball and I feel like he could You know trade to a 20% strikeout rate, he's had a 16% for his career, but then get back to that like 190 ISO he showed in his rookie season. You see him searching around, his batting stance is changing a little bit, he's a little bit more spread out now

and he's a little bit more closed, and so he's trying to find it and 8.6 8.6 percent barrel light and a 111 max CV with a 16 percent strikeout rate for a catcher. That's actually good Right. I think so. It certainly suggests he should have better than a 247 babbitt So, you know even as projections 260 guy who'd hit 260 with 16 homers. Look at the catchers. That's that's probably a top 10 catcher.

I think it is. I mean, we're still talking about a guy that's 27. Physically, if you give him better health, probably has more like 18 to 20 homer power playing as much as he does. And maybe he will make some adjustments. Maybe he won't let the ball playing as much as he does and maybe he will make some adjustments maybe he won't let the ball travel as much right like there's always the possibility that you can make an adjustment maybe it costs him a little bit of contact but that ends up being a trade-off that Adley Rutchman decides is

worth making he's still a few years away from free agency so that's the other sort of thing that's you know looming out there on the horizon long long term but this is still a good profile that I like quite a bit for the long haul. I might sell one name on this list. He was at a bit low Bryson Scott Hmm. What I'm seeing is a gradual erosion of power from a guy who doesn't make power a priority And yes his strikeout rate is good, but you know, he's gonna steal 24 bases this year. He'll maybe steal 20 bases next year. You know, as that stolen base total goes down, his value goes down. And for a guy that is more focused on the skills that lead to batting average,

you know, power still matters for batting average. So, you know, there can be a cap on your batting average even, and your BABIP if you're not hitting the ball as hard as you could. So to me, I see this as kind of rapidly becoming a one category player, and I don't like one category players. So if I was in a league, I might sell him. There's a case where I could make sense of selling him, even what might be a little bit low. I've had plenty of bad calls during draft season, but I do think my internal bucketing of Andres Jimenez, Bryson Stott, and Bryce Terang as very similar hitters

has been accurate. I think the main difference is that Terang is running. They've been worse than you thought, right? They've all been worse than I thought, but I knew they were all comparable in their flaws flaws. Their limitations in power have all been playing out accordingly. With Tarang, at least he's got 40 stolen bases in the past calendar year, so he runs more than the others. And I think that makes him just a little bit more valuable because he's going to score a few more runs. And playing time wise too, like 654 plate appearances the defense is so

good they don't really platoon him that's also helped to rank I think maintain a little bit of extra value but definitely a concern when you have a team with multiple guys on this leaderboard this laggard board if you will I mean look at Ryan McMahon and Brenton Doyle both bottom 15 and Woba in the past calendar year and I think both are great defenders I think Doyle both bottom 15 and Woba in the past calendar year. And I think both are great defenders. I think Doyle holding the K-rate under 25% is a reason for optimism. We talked about him a few weeks ago.

But now the more I look at Ryan McMahon, the more I'm wondering if it's actually going to be a relatively small deal for a team that wants a third base upgrade to pry him loose from the Rockies. Yeah, when you look at that 30% K-rate in 142 ISO, again, that's the killer combo. It's when you're striking out a bunch and not getting the requisite power that you expect. At least Doyle's 24.6% strikeout in 182 ISO lines up better. Oh, Marcus Simeon.

Yeah, Marcus Simeon, it's 19 homers and 11 steals. He's kind of kept it afloat, rototo-wise, but a 298 Woba, that's not great. That's the cumulative effect, the wear and tear, perhaps, of all that playing time and just a little bit of aging has all started to catch up to Simeon a little bit. Yeah, we're getting to some difficult spots here where you know, JJ blood a is on there and Yeah, I think they've got better options in the outfield Now hey, it's not all bad news. You said you wanted to end on a high note for this segment So we're gonna flip this board

We're gonna look at the Wobba leaders to join that span and I think the first surprising name I see is a Ohanaio Suarez at six right judge Otani Vlad jr. Soto wit all guys you expect to be there, but the Suarez Cal Rale Brent Rooker trio right there at six seven and eight if you need reason to believe that anything is possible I think those three guys being at that spot on this list I think those three guys being at that spot on this list should be reason to believe in the things that you want to believe in from a player development and growth perspective because It's an exceed for all three of those guys even if we had plenty of reasons to like them

You know at previous levels 284 and 49 homers in the last year for Yeh and Yo Suarez. I love it. 52 homers for Calralli. Just bombs. This is why I care about power. Those three guys all hit the ball really hard. Everybody on this list hits the ball really hard, except maybe Corbin Carroll, and he had an adjustment that has helped him hit the ball harder.

So this is a testament to where the game is right now. Hit the ball hard. Good things will come. It's as Adam Dunn once told me, hit home runs and line drives will follow. That's a good way to think about it. Yeah. Yeah.

Hit home runs and the line drives that stay in play will just be the mishits. Right. Yeah. Yeah. It's that easy. Corbin Carroll has a 40 homer 31 steel split in the past calendar year. So, yeah, we had any doubts about him being a first rounder entering this season. I think those have been erased. And the thing that's cut this season a little short, at least for now,

is that chip fracture in his wrist, which is a bit of a bummer. But man, like there are some ridiculous numbers on here. I mean, Cal Raleigh, 52 homers and 12 steals in the past calendar year. Like that's unreal. I think if you scroll down, there's another name after Corbin Carroll that is maybe surprising. There he is, stop.

Riley Green, and leave him on the page with Corbin Carroll on there too, if you can. Yep, got it. All right. So Riley Green, 283, 28 homers and a 140 WRC plus. Corbin Carroll 252, 40 homers and 30 stolen bases and a 143 WRC plus. These things are maybe more like each other than you'd expect. Somebody asked on blue sky, Hey, you know, which one would you rather have?

And I was like, I didn't even think for a second. I was like, Corbin Carroll, you know, stolen bases. And he was like, you're basically just trading batting average for stolen bases. And I was like, well, it's still 30 stolen bases. It's gotta be, that's gotta be a good trade to make. But then we looked at the standing gains points thanks to baseball HQ. The standing gains points would basically tell you how much a stolen base is worth in the standings.

And so one place in the standings is seven stolen bases right now. That's what the baseball HQ numbers said. And one place in the standings is two points of batting average. This is a 15-team mixed league, by the way, context because it'll it'll vary depending on the type of league. Basically Riley Green's line should be worth more in fantasy. 30 points of batting average is worth more than 30 steals. Because you can do the math. Two points of bat a point is a point in the standings and seven steals

Is a point in the standing so there's a little bit more going to it than that though Because just because he's hit 283 over the last year You wouldn't expect everybody was hit 283 over the last year to just continue hitting 283 and the projections for Riley green or sort of 265 to 275 and if Corbin Carroll's, you know projections are For you know, what are they for they're for? 265 So there goes the batting average that Riley Greene was supposed to have but are the projections right on Riley Greene because he has a 273 career average

and that includes a 253 from his rookie season. He's been more of like a 280 guy, 290 guy the last three years with an incredible batting average on balls and play. 359 for Rodney Green for his career, 384 in 2023 and 382 this year. It's really weird though because he doesn't have that much speed. You pointed out what was his speed percentile? 34th percentile, yeah. And you also noticed something else, his squared up percentile is? First percentile on squared up percentage, but 97th percentile in barrel rate, which I just, I'm sure there's an explanation. I don't know what it is just yet

He sprays the ball around a little bit Yeah, but like how can how can he barrel it without squaring it up? I feel like the next time we get to chat with Mike Petriello. This is something we have to ask Mike about How like this seems very difficult to do and for Riley Green? It's like well sure if you're gonna hit the ball hard and you hit it all over, you can maintain high babbips. He's done that over the course of his career. He's an above average babbip guy.

You can safely say that. It's just a question of how much above average and then how much you trust that. And the weight of your batting average is also going to change based on how much you walk and how much you play. So if you're an everyday player who's not walking a ton, which Riley Green last year walked a lot,

this year he's not, the fluctuations in average could be much more detrimental. If he's gonna carry a 6% walk rate and he runs a 320 bad bit, and it costs him 30 to 40 points in batting average, that's a big, big difference in his value given how that's calculated. Yeah, I still take Carroll pretty clearly after this further analysis, but I thought

it was interesting that their Roto fantasy value over the last year may actually be tilted slightly towards Riley Green with all that batting average. That's not something that my brain would tell me right away. You give me those two lines, my first instinct is to say Corbin Carroll's is more valuable. All this might be to say, yet again, in Roto League's batting average, probably getting undervalued relative to the counting stats, especially, especially homers and steals. What's better than a well marbled ribeye sizzling on the barbecue? and steals. Cart has you covered. Download the Instacart app and enjoy $0 delivery fees on your first three orders. Service fees, exclusions, and terms apply. Instacart, groceries that over-deliver.

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Some regional exclusions apply. Learn more at TurboTax.ca slash business tax. I think this leaderboard is interesting because it gives us a really good snapshot of what Seiya Suzuki is capable of over full runs of health, 155 games, 690 played appearances. How about 33 homers and 11 steals with a 276 average and a 349 OBP? I mean, that's really solid and nearly 200 combined runs and RBIs.

By the way, runs and RBIs is the other area, if you're gonna find a difference between Carroll and Green, the D-backs lineup continues to be better. And because Carroll is faster and a better runner, that's gonna be a difference too. He has 132 runs over the last year, Corbin Carroll does. Yeah, that's another way that the Ryan lines are gonna be inflated towards Carroll.

95 runs driven, Riley Green 79 runs, and 96, there's a park factors in there but that matters, you know that matters. The Seiya Suzuki run basically the same same numbers as Manny Machado with a little less batting average during the same span. I don't think my internal valuation of Suzuki is on the level of Machado. Maybe it should be now. This would be some reason to possibly consider that. Shout out to Manny Machado just for being a metronome and just being able to do this year in and year out. It's pretty crazy. He's aging pretty well.

It is impressive. Labor Torres came up as someone that you were surprised by. He's actually top 30 in Wobba over the past calendar year. A 375 OBP over the last calendar year which includes time in Yankees uniform. They might like a second baseman with the 375 OBP right now but they let him go. Don't know if we'll see a reunion there in the future. Fancy Wild Valiant is a little bit muted for Torres because 16 homers and four stolen bases but again 290 average 375 OPs helping in other ways. The other one that I thought was kind of interesting was Lawrence Butler 31 homers 28 steals that got 99

runs and 81 RBIs and that it was it was standing out to me compared to let's see James Wood who we love. I think there's also an internal gap in the James Wood value versus Lawrence Butler, probably because Wood was a more hyped prospect. And also recency bias where he's going well right now and Butler has been on the lower half. But I do trust that Butler will just be a streaky guy

that will have good and bad streaks. That's just my read on him. And I think by the end of the year, you're gonna be decently happy with him. That's what this says also. You look at Lawrence Butler over the last year and you're like, oh, 31, yeah, okay, I can do that. TPH Newb in our Discord pointed out,

and this was a 162 game split, but I just have the past calendar year over the past 162 regular season games Mookie Betts hitting 254 328 411 with a 4% barrel rate and barrel over plate appearance in that instance now for the Rolling one-year leaderboard we're looking at which includes time on the IL last year 18 homers 13 steals 76 runs and 76 RBIs with that 254-322-422 line. We know that Mookie had the illness in the spring that caused him to lose a lot of weight. We talked about the difficulty of adding strength, adding weight back on during the season.

So many guys, especially smaller frame guys, are always going gonna mention how much they lose over the course of the year. We've seen that I think with what, Sal Freelick and a bunch of other guys. Is this just like the next part of Mookie's career or is this a little bit of a keeper dynasty because of the context you wanna still go get Mookie bets because you believe there's still a level above this that he's capable of considering the injury and health issues.

I think more this level is more valuable than people give him credit for. And if you can buy him just at this level and maybe his owner is pessimistic thinking their shares of Mookie are declining rapidly and then you get out from under him. I kind of think that he does have the skills, like he's playing shortstop all of a sudden with like decent numbers defensively and that was his offseason, you know, that was his offseason priority so I could see him re-addicating himself to hitting a little bit in the offseason but also just being, hey would it be valuable if I sold you on a 275 hitter with a great OVP that would probably hit 2020 and give you multiple eligibility?

Like if I just tell you on that without the name on it, then, then you're interested, right? That would work just fine for me. So even if it's just 2015, it's going to come with good runs runs in RBI and this is a bad, he's in a bad year. I think there's, I think there could be some more rebound, even if it's just back to last year, 289, 19 homers, 16 stolen bases. I'll take that. I think what you're looking at is like a Jose L. Tuve 18 curve, but with maybe even a better supporting cast, so probably better counting stats around it. Altuve's past calendar years, 20 homers, 15 steals, 272, 334.

That seems very attainable for Mookie. I guess it will also depend on how much of a discount you're getting, but a lot of players at this stage of their career get dinged a little more than they should and end up providing some value in that pick 75 to 105 range. It's often more players like this land. Yeah, because everybody else is looking for James Wood in there. It's sort of what happened to Christian Jelinc this year. He went right in that range. He was kind of boring.

Other people had more exciting names they wanted to take and Christian Jelinc is having a great year. Oh, here's a fun one. Andrew Benentendi has more homers than Jorge Soler in the past calendar year. Oh, that's fun. Didn't expect that. Nate Low, 252 with 26 homers.

I did not expect that. No, not bad. I thought it would be worse than that. Nice calendar stats to go with it too. A little underrated from a Roto perspective. Jake Berger, 32 home runs in the last year. Jake Berger has more homers, more runs, and more RBIs than Austin Reilly in the past calendar year. Oh.

Only 32 more plate appearances during that span. Wow. That's a bizarre one. Yeah, you know, Reilly's defense is not that great either. Would he be somebody that we need to reappraise early in their career? 28? I don't know. The top end ex of ULAs are still there.

The barrels look good. I'm not trading away to Austin Riley. I think I'd be trading for Austin Riley where I'm looking for a long term or a multi-year solution that'll help me at third base But don't know what the interest level is as far as people actually moving him at this point Anything else on here that caught your eyes we were kind of scrolling around Yeah, the Diaz is just like he does this all the time and we refuse to value it correctly 290 20 homers 350 OBP in the last calendar year and, and zero fanfare.

There's, there's like, uh, we don't talk about this player enough or whatever. Like they type memes and I feel like Yandy deserves coverage there. Yeah. Well, I think that's, that's a fair, fair call as far as how Yandy goes. Bryce Harper around the injuries, 19 homers in the past calendar year. I wanna be optimistic because I think a player like Harper can play well deep into their 30s, but I'm starting to wonder how much the back especially

is a longer term concern that's gonna either require a lot of maintenance and IELTS-ence or sap more of that power than I was expecting it to. How about Matt Olson not being as bad as the narrative around him? 255, 354 OBP, 32 homers, 109 RBIs. Still really good.

Seems like people are way down on it. It's a little less average in OB, it's eight points lower in average and 16 points lower in OBP than Devers, but counting stats, you know, pretty much identical. And I don't think people are talking about Matt Olson the way they talk about Rafael Devers. So there you go.

Surprises up and down that board though, it's fun to take a spin at those, especially at this mid-year point. Let's take a look at where the money went this weekend it was Chase Burns week in the NFBC because he was not drafted in most of those leagues probably all of those leagues so he was eligible picked up for the first time on Sunday night in other leagues with first-come first-serve pickups and other formats of course Burns long gone after he debuted last Tuesday but who caught your eye?

Who did you think was actually worth going after this weekend? You know I thought Emmet Sheehan was a little bit interesting because he's not on the Probables list so you know then this is the team that has Justin Robleski on the Probables list so there's other things I worry about Sheehan where I'm like the fastball and change are good but what about the second but what about the breaking balls? Are they that good? Is he going to be able to throw right on right changeups a lot? There's some question about that.

And then there's also, when is he pitching? It's like Logan Henderson. I saw some people spend some money on getting Logan Henderson. I actually dropped Logan Henderson in the league this week because I was like, when's Logan Henderson coming up? There's not really buzz. There's not really buzz. That's not really an obvious spot.

I guess he could take Chad Patrick's spot, but then Patrick just went out and pitched a gem. So if you can, he's an interesting arm, but I don't know that he's so interesting. I would rather, you know, like a Bubba Chandler or something. I don't know. Like I'd rather have the Chase Burns before Chase Burns comes up than Sheehan necessarily.

I don't know if he's on that same class. Grant Taylor, I think will have the Chase Burns before Chase Burns comes up than Sheehan necessarily. I don't know if he's on that same class. Grant Taylor, I think will be the closer for the White Sox the rest of the way. So if you need saves, that's fun. There's a long-term conversation about Grant Taylor. It's very different than the short-term. The long one is, what does his VELO look like when he's going five and six innings?

What does his no wiggle, you know, over the top arsenal look like as a starter, where people see him two or three times in one game? Those are questions I have about Taylor's upside long term, but short term, he's sitting 99. He's obviously the best reliever in there and they're giving him two innings saves. So you had to pick him up. McCarthy gets a run on Carroll, you know,

because with Carroll out, McCarthy gets a shot not to take Carroll's job. So I hope you don't spend a lot of money to get him, but in the short term, he's gonna get a lot of plate appearances and that's what this game's about. Yeah, five consecutive starts. They didn't face a left-handed starter during that span,

so I think that's probably your schedule cue that you wanna keep an eye on. If you're trying to get the speed especially from Jake McCarthy, upcoming week, seven games, two lefties. I think Robbie Ray and Chris Bubich on back to back days, but it's a busy enough week where five out of seven starts even and maybe getting in as a defensive replacement or a pinch hitter in those other games,

that should be enough to play. And I think the week leading to the all-star break is also the same. It's seven more games. Two lefties expected to start so probably playing enough at least in 15 team leagues but even in some 12s to maybe be that last outfielder in depending on the actual needs of your team. What are you doing with Nolan Gorman? He was available in a couple of my leagues and I've mentioned a few times on the show, you know, second base has been a problem. You've got multi-position eligibility for Gorman in some leagues, and he's actually

getting chances to play against lefties. He's been like the primary DH for the last 10 days or so, getting the occasional starts at second and third base. But each of the last three times, including Sunday, the Cardinals have have faced the lefty Nolan Gorman's been in that lineup. That is surprising to me. It's also surprising to me is that he has the most manageable strikeout rate of his career while still hitting the ball hard and yet 224 314 average in OVP seemed to be the high water marks. Like, can you do better?

He can probably do better in OVP. This might be who he is, 224 314 412. It's okay, it's above average by WRC Plus. It's something they need, but it's, I'm not sure that I'm recalibrating my outlook for his entire career based on what's happening right now. Yeah, maybe just a port in the storm though if you are struggling to find anyone playing enough at second base that can at least do something positive.

The port in the storm is how I would describe most of this week is just people looking for very specific things to starters. Oh, I just need like Tyler Freeman is like my fifth outfit is not that good and Tyler Freeman is home all week, you know, in Colorado. So I'm just going to plug in Freeman for those plate appearances and, you know, and who knows if I even hold on to him, you know, beyond this week. I think there's a lot of that.

Trevor Rogers is to starter. I'm not in love with Trevor Rogers, but if he's a two-star streamer, he can be useful for you. I think Ryan Nelson is a two-star streamer. Nolan Gorman is playing and has power, you know. So there's a lot of like, you know, all hands on deck. You have Emerson Hancock got picked up in 29 leagues in the main event, fifth most, and you put Y next to it. And I was like, home against, and you put Y next to it. And I was like home against Casey and Pitt. I mean, that's like about the best schedule you could have.

It's about as easy as it could possibly get. I mean, 530 ERA, 142 whip on the season for Emerson Hancock, only 52 Ks and 71 in the third innings. 15 homers allowed. Yeah. Stuff doesn't tell you that you should pick them up either. There's nothing really that tells you to pick them up except for that. I was pushing Trevor Rogers for two more difficult road starts.

We talked about Texas and changes at Globe Life Field on our episode on Friday. The second start is at Atlanta. It's like every time I start anybody against Atlanta, I'm like, I'm just waiting for that lineup to wake up and start reaching its full potential. But given the choice, when I actually had to make the decision, I was Rogers clearly ahead of Emerson Hancock, even though the matchups, I mean, if you're a starting pitcher in the big leagues, and you're pitching in Seattle, and those are the two

opponents coming in, there's not much more you can ask for. Maybe the Rockies instead of the Pirates would be what you want if you could really choose. Who knows that'll go. Good matchups can only take you so far. You still have to throw well and stuff. You still got to not give up. The Pirates do score runs sometimes. Port in a storm also. Tyra Estrada went 11 against a 9 secondary bid in our main event. I bet you Tyra Estrada is back on the waiver wire next week. That's like a bat stream, you know? Second baseman playing in Colorado all week, you know? I am seeing some Tyler O'Neill drops

and I'm gonna circle that one as maybe someone I'm in on in the future if I have enough money. But I got Emerson Hancock dropping Paul Blackburn in the main event. I made my case there, I guess. Yeah, well, that's last week's Emerson Hancock out the door. And you know, you did the same thing on Sunday. Emerson Hancock will get cut and the next Emerson Hancock comes on the roster.

I got outbid for Joey Ortiz. What was the final tally on that one? 5-3 3 it's out of a thousand who is he going to replace on your roster? We only do three David Hamilton. Come on, man Are you saying I should have put more money on them if I was you want interested you or? Of all well guess who I got for two bucks dropping David Hamilton Tyros dry Tyros Strot. Luke Railey. Oh, Railey. I was fine with that. Luke Railey is a 15 team player.

Railey's another guy, if you look at a longer kind of custom leaderboard for the past calendar year and just sort by WRC plus, Luke Railey and Kerry Carpenter are really close on that board and you remember Kerry Carpenter. And they're similar players. Going on, yeah. Railey steals more bases.

Right, but that's the kind of player Luke Rayleigh needs to be for that Mariners team. Like he needs to have that level of impact against righties. Yeah, so he's a little bit hard sometimes because he sits against a lot of lefties, but he's an athlete. He's an athlete. Runs hard, throws hard, hits the ball hard.

He started a game in center field on Saturday. Yeah, that's what I'm talking about. Yeah, he's got wheels. He looks like a free safety out there. He looks like a baby Mike Trout. Yeah, you don't want to run into Luke Raley in an outfield collision. That's not going to end well for most folks. But yeah, I mean, we talked about it, I think maybe even a year plus ago,

his sprint speeds are much better than you'd think based on where he plays defensively like there's a lot more athleticism with Luke Railey that then you would assume so Hey, you picked him up and you got him cheap. So I think you did pretty well You're right about the lefty thing though That's always gonna be a little bit of a playing time leak But your overall assessment of the week is one that I share I didn't think there was a ton out there if you were in that situation where the week is one that I share. I didn't think there was a ton out there if you were in that situation where you either couldn't go get burns because you didn't have the money or he was already gone because you play in a non-NFBC league. There's

no other big fish out there to go chase. There's one very small fish that I got a bid on as well. My stack was Doriotis three, Dominic Canzone three 3, Luke Grayley 2, and Dominic Kanzone I lost 22 to 3. So somebody was into Dominic Kanzone. This is I think why I took and made a list of comps for Dominic Kanzone. What I used were I tried to use the things that are most effective in the smallest of samples. So I only used max EV, contact percentage, and Z minus O. So that gets you a sense of what his play discipline looks like, what his contact rate looks like, and what his max EV.

Both, all three of those are like per pitch type numbers, or per ball and play at least, so that like they can become really useful really quickly. His comps based on those things are Junior Kamenero, Seiya Suzuki, Elliott Ramos, Corbin Carroll, Randall Gritchick, Pete Alonso, and Vinny Pascuentino. I would suggest that's pretty interesting. Even if you put in barrel and hard hit like I did, he seems to sit just fine. He is a little passive, Sit just fine. He is a little passive can zone is but maybe that works in his favor if he's hitting the ball

116 so I think there's something brewing with Dominic can zone. I'm super mad I don't have my 20 team or where I had him before and we had some sort of roster crunch and I lost him I'm not saying that 10 and 12 teams need to pick him up yet But you know, he could be a guy you circle and say what does this guy do? He's a guy that needs to out hit his glove though. That's the pressure on him. I see that Gritchick name on there. It's like, oh, if he's a left-handed Randall Gritchick, but then is that enough?

Maybe, given some of the needs for bottom half production in that lineup. And I think I would like it better if they had a defensive spot where they liked Jorge Polanco and they could DH dominant can zone more. I think I'd feel a little better about his shorter term trajectory. But hey, we'll see. We'll see what happens in the long term. We actually is definitely affected by lack of glove. This makes it really hard. We could play a lot more if you

were better outfielder. Yeah, tons of pressure on his glove. We need to go on our way out the door. A reminder, you can join our discord with a link in the show description. You can find eno on blue sky, enocerous.bsky.social, and ddr.bsky.social. Thanks to our producer Brian Smith for putting this episode together. That's gonna do it for this episode of Rates and Barrels. We're back with you on Tuesday. Thanks for listening. Second thought, I might not be the right person to tell you. Oh, you're not? No, just ask your doctor. About Wachovia? Yeah, ask for it by name.

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