Rates & Barrels - A Phillies-Tigers Deal, Questionable First-Rounders & Roster Construction Problems

Episode Date: January 9, 2023

Eno and DVR discuss the still unsettled status of Carlos Correa and the Twins' move back into the fray, a trade between the Phillies and Tigers, Michael Conforto as a high-volume player in Year 1 with the Giants, current first-round picks that appear to be overdrafted, and a few roster construction concerns that have surfaced in the early portion of the 2023 draft season.  Rundown 4:29 Carlos Correa: Twins Back in the Mix? 8:41 Phillies-Tigers Trade: Closer Questions All Around 19:19 Making Sense of Matt Vierling & the Tigers' OF Playing Time Mix 24:59 Michael Conforto Officially a Giant 28:57 A.J. Pollock to Seattle 31:26 Eric Hosmer to Chicago 35:43 Dodgers DFA Bauer, MLB Reinstates John Coppolella  37:33 Best Wishes to Liam Hendriks 40:49 Current First-Rounders of Concern? 56:18 Roster Construction Questions Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarris Follow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiper e-mail: [e-mail] Subscribe to The Athletic at $2/month for the first year: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels Promo Codes From Our Advertising Partners Roman: Get 20% off your first Roman order at http://www.ro.co/athletic Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This episode is brought to you by Peloton. Forget the pressure to be crushing your workout on day one. Just start moving with the Peloton Bike, Bike Plus, Tread, Row, Guide, or App. There are thousands of classes and over 50 Peloton instructors ready to support you from the beginning. Remember, doing something is everything. Rent the Peloton Bike or Bike Plus today at onepeloton.ca slash bike slash rentals. All access memberships separate. Terms apply. Welcome to Rates and Barrels. It is Monday, January 9th.

Derek Van Ryper here with Eno Saris on this episode. A bunch of news and notes. We'll have the latest on Carlos Correa. We've got a Phillies-Tigers trade. We've got a player in San Francisco who passed the physical and had his contract formally announced. A bunch of other moves and happenings as well. Plus, we're going to get into some early 2023 draft talk. We're going to talk about some of the players up top that we have some concerns about and some of the questions that people have right now about roster construction during the upcoming season.

Some observations for those who've already done drafts up to this point. I think there's a lot that we could possibly learn from and some things that'll probably help us shape the position previews. How's it going for you on this Monday? You know, it's going good. The 2023 in parenting is off to a great start. We misread the calendar.

The middle schools are off today here in Palo Alto and we thought it was elementary schools. So our kids got to school an hour late today it's a great start to the new year that's awesome yeah here's the question do you think your children you've smart kids do you think your kids knew that they had school today and they were just playing it super chill like no no we don't have they weren't saying anything they weren't correcting you like they pulled an office-grade prank on you. The one where Dwight thinks it's tomorrow's Saturday.

And my mold is as a rule follower. He was actually extremely upset that we had forgotten. I can relate. Also, I think they felt a little bit of the rug pulling under them. Sort of... What? We thought we had one more day yes

it was all magic this weekend in the household um it's funny magic is listed as a game for 13 plus and my 10 year old loves it and uh my 8 year old struggles to kind of stick with you for an entire game.

Uh, but, uh, also, uh, wants to be part of what his older brother's doing. So we discovered it drafting, uh,

this weekend, which in, um, magic means you, everybody comes to the table with three debt with three packs and you just open up the packs and uh pick one you pick one you pass the pack on long you know uh and uh at the end of it you play a game so it's kind of a fun almost like uh i wonder if there's some way to bring that energy to fancy baseball where you know there's a like a draft but the

the resolution is quicker almost like a dfs fantasy hybrid where you know you get in there you do a quick draft and then you get you get all those player stats for that day and at the end of the day you know there's a winner or loser yeah i tried to think of a way to have a baseball card connection to a daily game, and I haven't come up with anything that works yet. I did see that. This could actually work. Well, yeah, this, like, open it up and just pick.

Yeah, just draft off them. If we just bring three baseball card packs to the table, you know, and you could do it virtually, too, I guess. But if you had three baseball cards to the table, you pick one, and you're like, oh, man, I got this player in there. That's me. Right? That actually is fun.

You would need an easy way to score it. If there was some way to scan the cards or just type a code in or something for each roster and then have a system that spits out your scores where you could track it, you've got a product. Why are we engineering this on the show? This is the thing we should be doing. We should be having a beer.

Copyright. Copyright. That's ours. 2023. Copyright. That'll hold up in court. Yeah. That'll stop them. Yes, judge. And then I screamed copyright. It's legally binding for everyone who heard it. Anyone who was

near someone who heard it. And who was near someone who heard it. And everyone on the planet at the time. Yeah, clearly I didn't go to law school. Well, yeah, a lot going on. And since we last spoke, well, Carlos Correa still in limbo. But the latest is that the twins are back in the mix, which is wild.

I want this to go all the way around and the Giants sign him. What? I remember that in the days after the deal with the Giants fell apart, Adam Copeland had shared a KNBR tweet. I think it was one of the video people at KNBR put together this video,

and it was the play. Like a tribute to Correa or something? Well, no. It was the end of the game play from Raiders Patriots where the Patriots on that lateral lost on the last play. They turned it over on a crazy lateral play. The Raiders recovered it and ran it back and won the game, and they replaced the football with Carlos Correa's head, and they had Farhan, I think, through the lateral,

threw the ball away. It was just awesome. But they'll make a new version of that somehow, like some other sporting event. A little bit of redemption for him, I think, considering how everyone's trying to backpedal off of signing him. Yeah. Do you think he'll just sign something very similar

to what he just signed with the Twins and just do it again? No, because the problem is still the long-term health, right? Because then you're just delaying a resolution another offseason, and I think that works against him as a player because only bad things can happen to him at this point. He's proven who he is at his peak already.

So another peak season from Carlos Correa doesn't answer the question of, yeah, but what about the surgically impaired leg? It just makes him know that you're older. It just opens him up to the possibility of having a setback with that injury or having something else come up. So I think if you're him and you're Scott Boris, you're sitting there and you're saying, no, this is it. We have to get it done now. Maybe you can be more creative with the language. Maybe you could have more incentive-based clauses for playing time and different things that you want in there to get to the numbers you want. Maybe that's how they get there.

But I don't think delaying another year with a pillow deal or a creative short-term deal with options, I don't think that's the best way out for him. Annoying. Annoying. Annoying. Knowing Boris. Annoying Boris. deal with options i don't think that's the best way out for him annoying uh knowing annoying knowing boris annoying boris uh yeah it's like there is a word there that's like a combination of knowing and being annoyed by but it's uh knowing boris i think the final number will have to be very similar um i think that yeah the devil will be in the details where it's like oh yeah we still got the 320 you know but the last 60 million is all in like like they sent us we just looked at miguel cabrera's contract oh yeah yeah he only gets

the last three years of his deal if he averages 600 plate appearances two years in a row right before. So, yeah, Miguel Cabrera's contract status option of the day that is pretty hilarious that we just discovered is that Miguel Cabrera, if he is in the top 10 in voting MVP this season in his age 40 career, we shouldn't laugh, man.

Pujols just had that great year. Cabrera comes out and rakes, but in his, in his age 40 season, if he's in the top 10 for MVP voting, uh, the two, a two year,

$60 million option gets bested. So, uh, he has a lot of incentive to be good this year. If that option vests, I'll eat a hat. Yeah, I agree. That has a lot of incentive to be good this year. If that option vests, I'll eat a hat. Yeah, I agree. Miguel's had a great season

as a Hall of Famer. Yeah, he's an easy Hall of Famer. Throwing that one in the contract. Oh yeah, I'll be in the MVP. I will win the MVP at 40. What are you talking about? If I'm still that good, you will pay me at the end of my career.

Hey, give him credit for trying. He still gets $8 million for walking away. See, that's smart. I need to have more incentives in my life where I get something for walking away. That's what I've learned from all of this. Speaking of the Tigers, they hooked up with the Phillies on a trade. Gregory Soto and Cody Clemens go to Philly. The Tigers get three players back.

Matt Veerling, Nick Maton, and Donnie Sands. And really, Soto for Veerling is like the one-for-one part of the deal that we probably care the most about from a fantasy perspective. Because for the Phillies, we talked about Craig Kimbrell. Being added to that bullpen. You mentioned last week that you really like Sir Anthony Dominguez. Now they've got another good late inning arm. It does make. Taking shots in the Philly bullpen.

More difficult. Because even if they name a clear cut closer. They can name any one of those three options. Their closer to begin the season. They have built in replacements. They have capable alternatives. They can turn any one of those three options. They're closer to begin the season. They have built-in replacements. They have capable alternatives they could turn to very quickly if they don't like the way things are going in the late innings. Yes, and also I think this is just a collection of high-end lottery tickets to an extent.

And we talked about this last time when we talked about this bullpen but this is a bullpen full of players with great stuff and poor command so stoto fits right in he's got a 104 stuff plus rating and a 93 uh command last year in location plus uh kimbrough uh 111 and stuff plus actually had 102 location plus last year uh i think he's therefore in the favorite for for closing i think that's you know it just sums up that he has the ability to to do both a little better than maybe the other guys alvarado jose alvarado 108 location 90 108 stuff 194 location um and then who was the other sir anthony my favorite uh sir anthony 121 stuff plus that's my dude uh unfortunately 98 location plus so that's why i like sir anthony domominguez but it also points to the fact that Location Plus is not as sticky year to year and you've got guys

with tremendous stuff up and down in this bullpen it does make it's almost a little bit like that Mariners bullpen where you're like yes looking back Paul Seawald was a great pick, right? And so looking back, maybe you could say Sir Anthony Dominguez

will have been the right pick because you just had the best stuff out of all of them. That's what happened with Paul Seawald in Seattle. But process-wise, we're trying to pick a winner, and I think in both of these Mariners and Phillies bullpens, it's like there's a lot of guys who could win. Any one of these four guys could be the primary closer this year.

Don't you feel that way? I do. I think that's the problem with the closer role is that the number of players capable of handling it far exceeds the number of players that get to have the actual role. I think if I had to pick in Philly right now, if I'm investing in their bullpen,

I'm actually, as long as the price on Craig Kimbrell stays reasonable and maybe the addition of Soto keeps it somewhat in check. I think Kimbrell's the guy. I think Kimbrell is a likely hall of famer. Is that fair to say at this point? And I think there's something about managing a roster where a player like Kimbrel gets the benefit of the doubt when you're trying to assign roles like that. If they're not going to go committee, maybe they'll go committee.

That's possible. But I think you tend to see a guy like that get the first crack. So if I'm going to choose, I want the guy that's going to go first when the stuff is at least good. And if he does have the best location plus of the group, that gives him a slight edge. I'd be curious to know, you mentioned, you know, like they got 98 location plus for Gregory Soto. What is the median location plus for like,

I don't know, top 10 closers, the guys we trust? The circle of trust closers, like what do you usually see for a location plus number on that group? Throw me some of those guys. Diaz, Edwin Diaz, 100 location plus. Edwin Diaz, Josh Hader. Hader is going to have the lowest of anybody.

91. That's really bad. Liam Hendricks. Liam Hendricks, 98. Ryan Presley. 99. Jordan Presley. 99. Jordan Romano. 98.

So, yeah, 98, 99 is fine. You do make me nervous when... So, Hader had that bad year, right? And he was at 91. That's pretty bad. So, Soto at 93, that is worrisome. Location Plus doesn't have as much of a spread. So every point matters a little bit more.

And so when you're around 98, 99, you have decent command. When you're at 93, like Soto. And that's why, you know, it's perfectly fine. Some people do not like the deal and do not think that they should have like Soto. And that's why, you know, it's perfectly fine. Some people do not like the deal and do not think that they should have added Soto because, for example, another strong metric is strikeouts minus walks.

And Soto has actually been below average for the last two years, consists peers by strikeouts minus walks. This is while putting up a 3-3 ERA and having a great strikeout right in 2021 he just does walk a ton of guys and if you look at strikeouts minus walks he's below average but one of the reasons i think i like pulling stuff out is that you can see that he has some sort of stuff that is also reducing home runs and i i know you were looking at a small sample with a reliever that,

oh, in 123 innings in the last two years, he's suppressed home runs, but is that real or not? And I think stuff is, the reason we have Stuff Plus is to be like, no, man, he throws like a 99 mile an hour sinker. Yes, he does suppress home runs so uh that could be important you have alvarado and soto as these like oh another thing that makes it important is alvarado and soto are lefties at a time when uh the shift rules are making uh making it more important that you strike out lefties so with soto and alvarado they can strike out two out of three lefties if there's a lineup situation in the seventh inning. They have a guy who can just strike those guys out. Yeah, I mean, all in all, Philly's bullpen is in a much better place today than it's been probably in

three, four, five years. It's been a while since they've had this much quality to mix and match in those late roles. The big question, too, is that you look at the Tigers' bullpen. Soto was the guy last year. Joe Jimenez had that turnaround season. He's already been traded to Atlanta. Who is left in that bullpen that you like from a skills perspective that could emerge as the primary closer to replace Gregory Soto in Detroit? Yeah, we kind of looked through it before the show and I really think there's only one name.

It's Alex Lang. He doesn't have great, great stuff. What did I have for him overall? I think he's just basically above average, which for a reliever is 108. Actually, that's better than the outgoing closer. But he doesn't do it with with a crazy fastball it's a very good curve ball that he's got um and a decent change up so he's kind of a weird guy where he's like a little bit of a starter reliever where he's got three four pitches he actually throws

um and none of them are like an elite-level pitch. But it's a little bit like because there's nothing else going on there. He's the guy because nobody else is. Yeah, the depth chart doesn't look good right now. Maybe this is a team that takes a chance on a broken reliever that's coming off an injury and that that player emerges to close instead so it's totally possible that they don't have the oh yeah it's like Trevor Rosenthal signed I don't know why that guy just can't you're like broken I'm like Trevor Rosenthal sorry well and they've got a lot of young pitchers coming off of injuries too so depending on the timing of some

of those guys they may end up just moving a starter into that role at a certain point too right because you have yeah Boy, Lorenzen, Eduardo Rodriguez, Spencer Turnbull's coming back. You've got Bo Briski there for depth. Then you've got Mize and Skubal and Manning, so who was healthy at various points from that group could contribute in the rotation again. And that's the idea for Detroit is like, you know,

we aren't trying to do like a full long-term rebuild. A reliever, especially when we have a bunch of starters that are in the midst of maybe not panning out, those make great relievers. So, you know, if any of these guys, if we pull the plug on any of these guys, they're going to be better as relievers. And, you know, Michael Lorenzen, you know, Matt Manning would be a closer. A filthy closer. Yeah, he'd be filthy.

So, you know, there's as this team sort of progresses towards getting better, some of those stars will become relievers and they'll have relievers again. I think they're not worried about this coming season as much as they are worried about year two or three. This can't be a super long rebuild because they were in the middle of a rebuild. This is the rebuild. So they can't just be like, we're starting completely over. I do think it must be a little bit hilarious for the president of baseball

operations there who came from the Cubs to come back to Javi Baez as his shortstop. I wonder if there's any... If there's any... If Scott Harris is like, oh, man. I told them in Chicago not to sign him. I think he probably walked in and knew that was there already, of course, because you look at the roster before you take the job and, oh, okay,

this isn't how I would have done it, but at least I'm familiar with the player and know what he can do well and what he struggles with. At least defensively, he'll stay at short a few years longer. So you've seen some other teams struggle to put a shortstop together. At least they have a shortstop. It does make everything else easier. I think this Bierling trade is great for them because we do have sort of sort of riley green austin meadows akil badu and miguel

cabrera atop the depth chart at the positions where he's most likely to be uh you know playing that's pretty gettable um you know i think miguel in his final season uh 10 MVP season notwithstanding is probably going to take lots of time off and do a lot of waving and accepting of gifts this season

which leaves some DH opportunities available and then Akil Badu I think the jury is still out on if he is a major league starting player right um the projections have him as a league average bat with somewhere in between good corner defense and bad centerfield defense which is a tough place to be man i mean veerling can beat those things. Vierling,

I think, could be a mediocre center fielder defensively that goes 20-20 with a better OBP than Badu. So I'm going to take some shots on Vierling this year. It's a little bit of a deeper situation. And Vierling's not without his flaws. The reason they got him is because he hits the ball hard. The reason he hits the ball hard is he doesn't hit the ball in the air. These things are linked. That's why barrel rate is superior to hard hit rate or max EV or average EV. That's why average EV

actually doesn't have that much information in it. If you look at what's predictive, average EV is not that predictive. It's not that useful. It's because if you hit the ball on the ground, it's easier to hit it hard. And so his 5% bail rate is not amazing. He does hit the ball hard. They're just going to work with him on lifting the ball.

But you don't think that everybody in Philadelphia was working with him on lifting the ball? Yeah, I think they've tried to make those adjustments already because they can see it. yeah i think they've they've tried to make those adjustments already because they can see it and i think the the tricky thing here is veerling could end up just being mostly a small side platoon player that's in the range of outcomes as well i mean that's that's what that's what's being projected on us right now but but if you look at his per plate appearance numbers they'd be better than badu's right badu when he when he came onto the scene in 2021, I think exceeded everyone's expectations because he had barely played above low A.

He was playing at high A when he got hurt. Rule 5, lost pandemic season, came up, had an 8.8% barrel rate underneath the good line, 259, 330, 436 with power, with speed. That looked great. And then last year, we saw the barrel rate get cut

more than in half. He was at 3.6%. He was swinging at more pitches outside the zone. They were pretty quick to demote him at the beginning of the season too. Yeah, they were just out on it. And when he was at AAA, he played pretty well. He was great. He's only 23, so he wasn't old for the level. He was

kind of an older 23-year-old, but when you factor in all the missed time, I think it'd be silly to give up on Badu. I think you want to play both of these guys. And I think unless they crowd up the DH mix somehow, they can both play. And Austin Meadows and Riley Green, all four of these guys can be in the lineup because they don't have to play Miguel Cabrera anymore.

They just don't. It does bring down the sort of upside of everybody in a way. If they are going to be committed to playing all four or five players. But if one guy gets hurt, then the other four can still play. So that's also in the cards. Yeah. I think Vierling is like a great, and maybe Bidoux, are decent when you're doing a draft and hold or something,

and you're doing the backup phase, you've got your five starting outfielders. Now you want to start taking players. They are actually, I think, superior to a lot of what people end up doing a lot in those leagues is taking prospects. a lot of what people end up doing a lot in those leagues is taking prospects. And I think somebody like Badu and Vierling is a better bet than taking a prospect because the prospect may just not play at all, you know? And there are going to be weeks in these leagues where you're like,

ah, I just, I need a guy who's going to play. And like the worst case scenario with Vierling and Badu is you plug them in, you get three games out of a week or four games out of a week. It's better than zero. And then you still have a little bit of that prospect upside where Vierling could go 20-20 this year. Badu could go 20-10 this year.

So you take your pick out of the two. Badu being a lefty helps him a fair amount. And I am biased towards the things that Bierling does in hitting the ball hard and making more contact than Badou. But I could see just picking Badou. I don't know. This is almost a 50-50 for me. I'm going to take Bierling.

But you don't really want to spend the draft cost to take both. No, you don't want both. We're talking about deeper leagues. If this were a 15 team mixed league, we're talking one of the last few rounds. If you're thinking about either one of these guys, they're better suited for AL only leagues and draft champions. It's not a bad

bench pick in a 15 team league because you will know in the first week if they're playing him. Yeah, you'll know pretty quickly if you want to cut him. will know in the first week if they're playing him. Yeah, you'll know pretty quickly if you want to cut him. Yeah, if they're doing the thing where he gets two or three games in the first week, you can just, thanks. Not hanging on around for that. talking. You know you're driving a 2024 Ford Escape with available Alexa built-in, so you can change the music. Oh yeah, Alexa, change station to 99.2. See? Purchase a 2024 Escape ST-Line all-wheel drive with Tech Pack at 3.49% APR for 72 months with down payment. That's just $267 bi-weekly,

cash value of $40,294. Plus, eligible Ford owners get a $1,000 bonus. For details, visit your local Ford store or Ford.ca. So let's be clear. When it comes to shipping internationally, can I provide trade documents electronically? Mm-hmm. The answer is FedEx. Okay. But what about estimating duties and taxes on my shipments? How do I find all the... Also FedEx. Impressive. Is there a regulatory specialist I can ask about? FedEx. Oh. But let's say that... FedEx.... Also FedEx. Impressive. Is there a regulatory specialist I can ask about? FedEx. Oh, but let's say that...

FedEx. What? FedEx. Thanks. No more questions. Always your answer for international shipping. FedEx, where now meets next. A few more news and notes.

Michael Conforto's deal with the Giants is now official. After a year off due to injury, what's the expectation for Conforto, especially going to that park where it can be tough for lefties to hit for power. Yeah. It's funny. The Giants have shown the definite willingness, and it's because of the length of deals.

They'll go to one year and an option with anybody who's hurt i mean i think they gave trevor rosenthal five million dollars last year um and obviously they've done it with uh guys like uh i think gossman was a little bit hurt the year they signed him obviously there was like a playing time of playing quality uh a component to that but then there's also uh you know rodone that they've done this with so they're just uh throwing their money around and getting the very best injury bounce back guys they can get and i'm not a doctor and i have not seen conferto's medical so like i can't really tell you. He is now 29, though, and I would have thought he was older. You know, when someone's gone, you're just like, oh, he must be in his 30s.

Nope, he's not. And I've liked Conforto for a long time because we've seen some improvement with the swing and miss at times that it made me think that if it all came together, what we saw in 2019 wasn't just the result of the ball. He can run a little bit, not be a liability in batting average. But I think if I look at that slash line from Steamer, 243, 340, 411, that's probably where you should put expectations. I tend to believe he's going to go over on each of those numbers. Maybe the OBP is right, but I think the average and the slugging percentage could actually be higher if he's, in fact, completely healthy.

I tend to think he is, given the length of that layoff. I mean, that was a long, long time for him to go through rehab and recover. I mean, that's a nice thing. You're not buying the Conforto who just had surgery and is trying to play his way back into shape, right? There should have been enough time on where that that part is gone uh time away that that part is gone so hopefully he's he's had like you know players talk about having that full off season to prepare like normal uh he should have had that and i think the 168 of course is drawing into you know into the numbers

uh the 168 iso that's projected for conforto is drawing back on the 153 he had in 2021 but if you look beyond that he was consistently a 190 to 200 plus guy with iso that's an important line because i think around 200 is where i think someone has real like actual power uh under 200 uh you know is sort of more above average territory and that can go either way so i i yeah i could see him hitting uh 20 22 homers this year hitting 250 uh being a an asset in obp leagues um i think uh i think also the Giants really need... I know they do the mix and matching thing, and Conforto is a lefty,

and it's a possibility he gets platooned, but I actually think that they need some people that can start every day. If you look around this roster, Conforto and Hanager are the closest I get to being like, hey man, I'm just going to plug those guys in. And that's it for the whole team. Am I crazy?

No, that's probably right. And I think that's a big part of why they were in on Correa. They needed another guy. They could just play every single day and not think about it. You can't platoon at every position. There's just not enough roster spots. No. You're just

not going to get enough production, mixing and matching at every spot either. You give up something quality-wise. It works for a few spots. It doesn't work for every single spot on a roster. AJ Pollock is now in Seattle. Coming off a really bad year with the White Sox. I thought Pollock was really steady. I thought the power speed, the OBP.

Sox. I thought Pollock was really steady. I mean, I thought the power speed, the OBP, I know coming off of 2021, a.355 OBP that year was his highest since 2015. So I wasn't expecting that, but I also wasn't expecting a crash down to a.245,.292,.389 line. Projections are closer to that than the player he was when he left Los Angeles. How do you see him fitting into Seattle's outfield? Do you think he's more than a semi-regular for them, given the outfield depth they've currently got? Yeah, I mean, he's being touted, I think, as a platoon with Jared Kelnick. I guess, I mean, because they're going to play

Teoscar Hernandez probably as their DH, right? Yeah. Julio is the everyday center fielder. If you go Kelnick with Pollock in one spot, they still have one more outfield spot that's pretty flexible. Taylor Trammell, Cooper Hummel is a switch hitter, so maybe he's in the mix as a small side platoon partner. JP Morosi was on TV today saying they should sign

Brandon Belt. Brandon Belt. Yeah, Brandon Belt to D8, which would push Teoscar, I think, into the outfield. If it's not Belt, the idea is interesting

because DHs are the easiest to get. So I guess Trey Mancini, Luke Voigt, depending on handedness issues, Miguel Sano. Who else could be a DH? Nelson Cruz is still out there looking for a deal that'd be kind of fun they just don't strike me as a team that wants to

add another DH to the mix though you don't think so? no I think they need someone that can actually play the outfield okay well that leaves them with Jerickson Profar, David Peralta that I could see that actually makes a lot of sense i think you've solved the puzzle if it's a signing of course as we know seattle it could always be something else could always be some kind of crazy trade that none of

us actually saw coming eric hosmer lands with the cubs does that give you any pause about Matt Mervis in redraft leagues just from an early season playing time perspective? It does. It's annoying. But Hosmer is only on a $750,000 deal. It's basically the veterans minimum, and I don't think that it necessarily signals any sort of long-term anything. I think it's maybe Mervis will play his way on in the spring, or maybe Mervis will have a bad spring and we have cover, or maybe Mervis and Hosmer both play well and we have a DH and a first baseman out of it.

basement out of it you know so um i don't think it's anything other than them trying to get better on the margins uh for cheap and uh you know for those that say that you know hosmer hits the ball hard and on the hits the ball hard and on the ground um as a lefty I would agree that he hits the ball on the ground I don't know how hard it is necessarily we're talking about average EV here when I just told you not to use it his hard hit rates, his average EV were down last year I would guess that he benefits from the shift but I

it is interesting, who would you rather sign to a short term deal? someone like Carlos Santana, lefty G-Man Choi who's been shifted a lot or Eric Hosmer who makes a lot of contact but doesn't have that power upside I think if I had if I had a roster that had a strikeout problem I might have a lean toward Hosmer of all those players he does make contact that's true but man it's been it's been five years and I realized 2020 wasn't a full season but it's been five years since he's had a season where he's been a full win above replacement or better.

That is brutal. Yeah, it's pretty bad. I think Santana is probably, in a just broader sense, Santana is the guy for me. Yeah. But I don't like any of them. I don't want to rely on those players. Yeah, well, they all got similar deals.

Sort of, you know, not being paid that well. Hosmer, as bad as he's been by Winslow replacement, has been above average with the bat three years in a row. But it is so streaky. Oh, my gosh. What are his splits last year? His first half. Let me see.

What do I have this better one here? First half. Oh, that's interesting. His second half was better by WRC plus. He hit 389 in March, right? So I was thinking, and that was his best month. He's 389 in March, right? So I was thinking, and that was his best month. He's 389 in March with three homers, and then he didn't have another month where he hit more than two homers.

Yeah, weird player. He stopped playing. That's why the second half splits don't work that well, because he stopped playing. He had two homers in the second half. He had 83 plate appearances in the second half. The original question was a little bit of bait, though, because I do think they don't have enough talent on this roster

where first base and DH are both blocked. If Mervis hits, Mervis plays. If there's a dip in where people are drafting him, I know he's kind of a popular early sleeper. If he slides at all, I'm definitely still interested because there's no reason why those two guys, Hosmer and Mervis, can't be in this lineup together with the way the roster is currently constructed.

The other DH that's listed on their depth chart is Nelson Velasquez. He's 24 and was 13% worse than average with a bat last year. Yeah. And is a righty. So I don't think that they are going to work hard percent worse than average with a bat last year. Yeah. And is a righty. So I don't think that they are going to work hard to get Nelson Velasquez a bat in DH.

I'm right there with you. Some other non-fantasy news items to pass along. Trevor Bauer has been designated for assignment by the Dodgers. We'll wait and see if anything changes with his status. If a team actually does go out and sign him, I'm assuming he's going to clear waivers because no one's going to pick up that contract. So we shall see and talk more about it if he ends up on a team.

Major League Baseball lifted the ban on former Braves general manager John Capolella. So it's kind of another wait and see for different reasons. so kind of another wait and see for different reasons it's interesting to have those two items close to each other just because um there's like a a question of like redemption and like when has someone like when has someone when have we has someone served their time quote unquote and when they get allowed back in um and with coppira i think the one thing that we saw we're not necessarily seeing with bauer's contrition right um and if you want to kind of parse the the verbiage that's coming out from his camp and from mlb when they reinstated him was you know he said he was sorry he hasn't he hasn't done like a pete rose campaign where he's out there being like you know, he said he was sorry. He hasn't done like a Pete Rose campaign where he's out

there being like, you know, baseball screwed me. I think he's just been out there being like, no, I made mistakes and I paid my time. I wouldn't be surprised to see him get some sort of consulting gig with someone quietly. There were some things he did well.

And he may still have value for a team. For Bauer, it's the question of if you're not going to be contrite, then how am I going to sell this? How am I going to sell to my fan base that I signed you if you're not going to say you're sorry at all? I think that's a good summary of where things are at right now. The other news that broke over the weekend, we found out late Sunday, Liam Hendricks has started treatment for non-Hodgkin's lymphoma.

So just all the best to Liam as he undergoes treatment. There's really not a lot known as far as when he might be able to come back and pitch again, but all the best to him and hopefully a full recovery for Liam Hendricks as he begins that treatment process. Is that what Mancini had? No, Mancini, I believe, was colon cancer. Colon cancer, yeah. Yeah, that's rough. He's an excellent closer, really dedicated to certain nonprofits in his area,

outspoken, fun individual in the clubhouse. Yeah, I don't know. Kendall Graveman has pretty good stuff. He might step into that one. I think that Bummer's Command has been tough in the past and his stuff wasn't even that good I think the dark horse there is Lopez yeah

he's popped in the model for a while and it seems like they've really committed to keeping him in some kind of shorter role but to be determined yeah I think Ronaldo Lopez and that's a sort of thing to sort of remember Some kind of shorter role, but to be determined. Yeah, I think Reynaldo Lopez. And that's sort of a thing to sort of remember when we're talking about the Tigers situation, right?

It's like the long sort of winding career path that Reynaldo Lopez has taken might end up as a pretty nasty closer at the end of his career. And that might be part of the who could they sign sort of answer for the Tigers. It might just be someone who was a starter for a long time that they see as more of a reliever now too.

So I think we're at that stage in free agency where you have to kind of leave your mind open to some pretty different possibilities. That's a fun idea. I mean, look real quick. Starting pitchers that you think could, they have to be young enough. Luke Weaver? Yeah, he would be starting pitchers that you think could...

They have to be young enough. Luke Weaver? Yeah, he would be in that cluster of guys that had a lot of chances as a starter, and it just doesn't seem like it's going to work out in that role. Chris Archer is sort of halfway in between. He's already kind of this three- to four-inning starter kind of guy. Yep.

I think maybe trying to convince Chris Archer, just give me one inning and I'll give you more money if you transition to a reliever for me. Yeah, air it out. Let's see what you can do. Yeah. Joe Ross is in a similar situation, but I don't know what his current medical status is.

Those are some interesting guys. I think Joe Ross could be a pretty good closer. So if your team needs one, rebuilding or not, that might be the area of the free agent list to focus your attention on. Michael Fulmer is still sitting out there. A reunion with the Tigers, huh?

Okay. I don't know. They've got like 5 million lying around, I'm sure. I think you have to do something different at this point, though. That's right. Forge your own path. We're doing something different. We're bringing back last year's closer.

Yeah. Treat yourself to Tim's new fudge brownie lattes, made with freshly ground espresso beans, frothy steamed or ice chilled milk, and topped with marble chocolate curls. Now that's music to our ears. Available hot or iced, only at Tim's. Let's get to a few broader fantasy topics. I was going to raise this after doing a 50-round drafted hold league about a week or so ago it started up. I wanted to know, Eno, do you have any first-rounders, current top 15 ADP players,

that you are actually skeptical of as first-rounders? Obviously, if someone's a first-round pick, you're not looking at that player and saying, he's terrible. I don't want him on my team. It's just more like, I'm not going to take him in the first round, and he's probably not going to fall far enough for me to have a chance at that player. That's the focus of the exercise, the early, early players that you're going to sidestep in favor of someone else. Was there anyone that really jumped off the page to you as you started looking at early ADP?

I always cheat. Yeah? I always cheat. I'm not cheating by the letter of the law. You said top 15 by ADP, and Bobachet is the 14th by ADP. However, I think that the way drafts actually work is that there are going to be two or three people that take a pitcher in the first round.

And as soon as there are two or three people that take a pitcher in the first round, And as soon as there are two or three people that take a pitcher in the first round, Boba Shett is not a first rounder. I'm also cheating by like taking the guy that's almost not a first rounder. I'm not shopping at 1-1 telling you Trey Turner is not a first rounder. That would be a hot take. 1-1 telling you Trey Turner is not a first-rounder. That would be a hot take. But Bobichette, I feel like last year he was more of a,

what did we have at three? I think it was like 20, 23rd or something bat, which means once you factor in the starting pitchers, he's more like 25-30 overall at least. I'm not sure that there's a lot more in him. I know he had a weird shape to the season, and a lot of his value came late in the season. I'm hoping I'm not just sort of biased from how his season started,

but he did do the thing again where he got caught eight times. Actually, before he was very highly efficient but in the minor leagues we spotted he uh he's been caught uh before when stealing and um so i looked at his uh his sprint speed because i think that i'd like to know uh you know i had i had done some research about where i think the sprint speed guys are going to come from, where the new stolen base guys are going to come from, where the extra stolen bases are going to come from. And when I looked, I thought guys with 4-3 times to first base might start taking off more because the math might change for them.

Well, then I was surprised to find that Bo Bichette has a 4-5 to first base, and here are some interesting names that are faster than Bo Bichette. Chris Bryant is faster than Bo Bichette. Freddie Freeman is faster than Bo Bichette, and this is my favorite, Shea Langeleers is faster than Bo Bichette, or at least was last season to first base. If you look at the stolen base totals of the people that are around him, Freddie Freeman's 14 is a double, double figures.

Tony Kemp's 11 is double figures. Geraldo Perdomo's 10 is in double figures. And there's nobody else. You know, there's nobody else who is as fast as him in double figures. And those guys are weird enough as it is uh to have as speed comps shay langoliers had zero stolen bases if you're wondering um so uh i don't think that boba shett is right on the edge of gaining a bunch of stolen bases due to the new rules i just i don't think so so i think he's a 25 10 guy maybe 25 15 and i'm just not sure that's a first rounder it's uh

it's not bad it's like a second or third rounder i'd love to have him but first rounders generally are more superstar you want to you want a superstar and i think this is more of a star i know i'm i'm sort of trying to shave the garlic here but yeah shaved garlic is uh is necessary in some recipes so can't rule that out as a viable skill but the the thing about boba shett that i think is also pretty interesting is that he with a very heavy opposite field approach didn't lose nearly as much power as you might have expected between 2021 and 2022 right 20 to 29 homers in 2021 hit 24 homers last year but that speed category like 25 for 26 as a base dealer in 2021, I do fear that that might go down as kind of an outlier for him for his career. Now, maybe he benefits from the bigger bases and

the rule changes and becomes a bit more efficient again this year, but if you go back and look at some of his minor league stolen base numbers, you don't see as much in the direction of the 25 for 26. You see more stuff that looks kind of like the 13 for 21 that we saw a year ago up and down the upper levels of that track record. So that is a reasonable concern. We're still talking about a guy that probably just goes eight to 10 picks earlier than he should, should be mid to late second rounder.

If he were going there, he'd probably be on a bunch of our teams because he gets pushed up. And part of that's the supporting cast the jays have a great lineup so you're expecting a ton of runs and rbis to kind of boost him up of over similar players that would go in this range but as we saw last year that can be a little bit flimsy and i do think the other problem problem air quotes with bo bichette is similar to the player i'm concerned about it's a low obp relative to other first rounders something about a guy that's getting a 333 343 obp it's a tad on the low side he's not a guy that walks a lot because he's able to hit bad balls right he puts a ton of balls in play and that good hit tool yeah that is kind of a funky thing

to get past with the very first hitter that you're drafting in any given year. But the guy that I'm worried about is Bobby Witt Jr. Second year in a row where I don't like him at price, even though I like him as a player. There's absolutely, there's no reason to look at Bobby Witt Jr. and say, I don't like that guy. I don't like his skills. It's just, I don't like his skills relative to the other elite of the elite hitters. Doesn't have the speed concerns that you outline with Bo Bichette. It is funny that Shea Langoliers is faster than Bo Bichette. That's just unexpected.

He did steal some bases at AAA, though, so maybe we'll get a few bags from Langoliers this year in Oakland. 100th percentile sprint speed for Bobby Witt Jr. This is not a concern about speed. It's not a concern about raw power. It's looking at the projections. It's not a concern about raw power. It's looking at the projections. Seamer's got him at 262 and a 312 OBP after a 254, 294, 428 slash line in his rookie year.

We know Kansas City is a difficult place to hit. We're always paying a premium for the guys that are young guys that could get better that have this power speed combo. I guess it's more of just like a broader. I don't want to pay for the guys who are still getting to that peak when I could get someone else, even if they don't run, who I'm more certain of. Yes. I think the other first rounders that go just after him, you look at Soto, Otani, Betts, Jordan Alvarez, even Vlad Jr., I feel better about them if I'm picking in the middle of round one than I feel about Bobby Witt Jr., even though I know the ceiling for Bobby Witt Jr. is that of a perennial first rounder.

It just feels like the market is about a round early on him, and I'm going to miss out, at least in snake drafts. Yeah, could be the situation. I think one thing that pops out to me when you mention the rest of the names that are right behind him that seem like better bets, the only one that steals any is Mookie Betts. I didn't mean to do that.

The better bet is Mookie Betts. I could see that. Mookie is, I think, sort of underrated somehow. um somehow he why does he always end up at the back end of the first round when he's just keeps crunking out you know 30 homer seasons with stolen bases and great lbp and you know even last year wasn't one of his best seasons uh and it was 35 homers and 12 stolen bases um so i think i would rather have moookie Betts than Bobby Witt Jr., but stolen bases seem to be the reason that he has inflated to that part of the draft schedule.

Yeah, I think the people who are concerned about Mookie Betts are probably looking at the speed and his age and saying, okay, we've reached this point where 10, 12 steals is probably the norm for him after two seasons where he's had 22 combined stolen bases. That's fair. And then I think other people say, well, 35 home runs from Mookie last year. That doesn't seem repeatable either, even though he does make good contact.

He doesn't make elite contact. He's got a 9.7% barrel rate. That's not usually what you see underneath a 35 home run bat. So you're kind of pulling down the power. You think the speed has a lower ceiling. Dodgers lineup is going to be as good as it was last year without Trey Turner. Probably not. So the counting stats might take a little bit of a hit too.

So I loved Mookie last year. I had a lot of Mookie last year and a lot of Aaron Judge last year, and that was fantastic. I loved Mookie last year. I had a lot of Mookie last year and a lot of Aaron Judge last year, and that was fantastic. I think I see a little more of the case against him now than I have in the past, but I'm not shying away from him on my teams. If he's still there at the 1-2 turn and I can go Mookie in one of the pitchers, I could get Mookie Betts and Corbin Burns together to start a team.

I'm really happy with that start where Mookie's going. I feel like in the past, he would have been a top five guy coming off the season he just had and now, maybe the batting average is part of this too. Two years in a row where he's in the 260s, he's kind of staying where he should be relative to the other

top end bats. Yeah, there's an interesting thing forming here for me, which is that if I do have two picks close to the turn, I may actually get a starting pitcher because there's a weird grouping of players there around the turn. Just the beginning of the second round for 15-team league, at least by NFBC ADP, is Corbin Burns, Garrett Cole, Raphael Devers, Pete Alonso, Fernando Tatis Jr., Edwin Diaz,

Austin Riley. I'm not taking a closer in the second round. I'm not taking Fernando Tatis Jr. I'm not taking Fernando Tatis Jr. there I could see taking Pete Alonso I guess but he's also not a well-rounded guy with steals I feel like if you just want me to get a 250 average a lot of power, I can get that a little bit later too so I'd be really, is it Devers or is it Cole or Burns that'll be a big decision for me if I have a pick in that range yeah there was something I noticed when I was setting the KDS when I was

trying to set my preferred draft order for that draft champions league and it was just based on what people have been doing I like both ends more than I like being near the middle of the order based on what happens in rounds two and three. Because I share some of your concerns. I don't want to draft Tatis that early with the time he's guaranteed to miss as he finishes up that recovery. And I look at the other, same as you, I don't want Edwin Diaz that early. That's too much. Riley and Alonzo are fine.

The second round is awful this year. Why is it so weird? It's because Trout missed a lot of time with injuries. I like Trout. If I'm forced to pick a player... Trout and Devers are in the second round, so that's not terrible. Those two are good.

But Real Muto's a little bit older. You could do that. I've done that before where I get a premier catcher in a two-catcher league. You're paying every possible tax on Real Mudo right now. And then Sandy Alcantara really just had a career-type

season. To go for him there, I don't know. Austin Riley also, I love him, but there are parts of his approach that seem sometimes like they could be exploited. He could have a bad season. He's not the perfect hitter if you look at things like chase rate or walk rate or you know i mean like you were talking about obps like you know riley is not necessarily

you know a standout there he did have 349 and 367 but if you look at the first two years he struggled there 301 279 as he was coming up. So do we just never look back at 19 and 20 for Riley and say, you know, he's never going to be that guy again? I think there's some risk that he has a season that looks like that one year all of a sudden, and I don't want to be holding the bag, you know? And as a second round pick, you're really just paying for exactly what he's done in the past with while ignoring the first two seasons when he was trying to get going so i think riley

that's really pushing it to the top of it so like alonzo devers i'm not saying i don't like those guys they're in the second round but michael harris the second all the way up to the second round you know with a with a poor chase rate and then hater classe and um diaz are all in the second round that's three picks i'm not taking i'm not making i know he looked really good again in the playoffs but josh hater where he's going it's amazing to me it's like people have forgotten what was happening in the middle of the 2022 season from him. Yeah. I know we talked about it when it was happening, that Edwin Diaz went through it a few years ago, and it can happen for closers, small sample.

You start missing with your command. You give up some homers. It craters the ratios. I get that. But it's so hard to commit that pick to Hayter when the alternatives are guys that can do everything. I mean, if you're looking at Lindor versus Hayter and Marcus Simeon versus Hayter, I like both Lindor and Simeon more at that turn. That's the end of round two, beginning of round three.

If you're looking at even Aaron Nola versus Hayter, I'd rather go with Nola and get the workhorse starter. I'd say Strider, Woodruff. Right, Strider. Woodruff's going to creep up. I think the observation you made about the pitching in general i think that's almost certainly going to change i think there's a lot of drafts that were happening we'll move into the first round round yeah and there were a lot of drafts that were happening there were the gladiator format maybe that had something to do with the format

i was about to say the the formats that are populating these atps are changing what we're looking at definitely because in a draft and hold you you kind of like, I can almost see taking a closer in the second round. Because you can win saves or at least stay competitive in saves if you just have one closer that you know is going to be a closer. You know what I mean? And then you don't have to spend as many picks later on trying to get closers. So, I can see taking Edwin Diaz, I guess, in the second. I don't think I'd take Hayter. But I could see taking Edwin Diaz in the second in a draft and. I don't think I'd take Hayter, but I could see taking Edwin Diaz in the second

in a draft and hold situation, and that's what most of these teams are right now. People aren't drafting the regular ones right now. I still think in the regulars, you're going to see closers going as high as they've ever gone. I still think it's there, but I think you'll see the starting pitchers start to creep up a little bit.

I did ask on Twitter, I was curious, beyond outfield depth, which has been mentioned in the show before I, you know, what issues are people most concerned about as they've gone through some early drafts, Doug on Twitter wrote, he's trying to get his head around how the rules changes impact this year

statched. I worry less about ground ball hitters, more about pitchers, how are steals going to play? It's an unknown. And you have to take a stand when drafting and you could be completely wrong which yeah that's like a broader like rules change concern that i don't know if that's necessarily being reflected in any player groups yet where people are are bumping up certain

types of guys in a noticeable sort of way i know on an individual level people are saying someone like cory seager should be moved up and I trust him more with the new shift rules. Tucker, a lot of the guys that we've talked about at various points, those individual players maybe are moving a little, but I don't see bigger changes for people trying to account for how the steals are going to play differently this year. I do think that lefty sluggers pulled sluggers. I think that the batting averages are going to be they're going to be maybe the projections are going to be a little bit off

right they might be low on certain types of players could offer a little bit of value you're talking like a round or two because people are already going to price them correctly based on power and run production in most cases yeah is, you have a choice there, right? It's like with batting average, do I think that everyone's going to be off? And so then I don't, I don't chase batting average as much because,

Oh look, Kyle Schwarber hit 270 this year. You know, um, that might be a way to react. Another way to react is, well, everybody's batting average is going to be higher.

So I should still make it a priority and try to stay above the rising tide. Yeah. But I don't like to chase batting average too hard. I'll just protect it early on. And then when I'm taking shots late to get more power, I'll be happy taking shots with guys who've hit 230 in the past if they're left-handed. Yeah, maybe you can be a little more aggressive with the batting average risk profiles you take a chance on

when you're getting that cheap power later, but you still play the top end of the draft the same way as far as how you're accounting for the batting average foundations that you have because if everybody's getting a little more from the guys that were previously low average hitters, the distribution's just going to move up.ters that it's the distribution is going to move up like everybody in the standings table is going to have a better average so you have to have a good plan think about the market too like you know if you're really good player like aaron

judge is a right hander uh who's not going to benefit uh like he's not going to start stealing 50 bases a year because of the changes in rules right so they didn't give him a ton of money because he's a right hand they give him a ton of money he's really good and he you know what i mean so when you as you're a team in the draft like when you're spending money a lot your biggest amount of money it's just players that are good you know don't be like don't be like oh i'm gonna be sneaky here and no just what do you think are the best players those are probably gonna be the best players no just what do you think are the best players those are probably gonna be the best players but later on you can be you know with like the pirates and saint carlos santana or whatever you know like you can do these little things where you're like

you're like oh you know with these later picks why don't i why don't i take a guy's left-handed why don't i take a guy's a four three spin sprint speed and might steal more bases this year you know yeah i think the shift rules almost have more impact with the darts you're throwing in the middle and late rounds than they have on the actual core strategy, the core players that you're going after. Because those core guys are who they are. That's why I get nervous about,

people are talking about Kyle Tucker and Corey Seager. There's only so much inflation Kyle Tucker can have anyway. He's already a first rounder. But Corey Seager is going to get a lot of inflation because people like the way these batter ball stats line up. But no matter what happens, he's not going to steal bases.

So like, if there is a limit to where, to the, how much helium I will allow Corey Seager to have in my drafts. Yeah, you could get priced out. For January, about pick 70.

I mean, yeah. It's like, who's he going up against? Our guys are stealing bases in his round. A whole bunch of pitchers in that range, but Tommy Edmond is your closest toss-up. It's basically your choices if you're looking for a middle infielder in that range. but Tommy Edmund is your closest toss-up. It's basically your choices if you're looking for a middle infielder in that range. You're looking at, in many drafts,

Corey Seager versus Tommy Edmund versus Trevor Story. And if you want to go to the outfield, you could go to Oscar Hernandez if you prefer power, Corbin Carroll and Starling Marte if you're looking for speed. And if you want to go catcher with Thump, Salvador Perez is in that range too.

All right. I'm still happy taking him above those guys mostly. I definitely want to, I think I want to take him over Edmund. Where I might, so what I might try to do there is like try go Corey Seager, Starling Marte,

get my speed from the outfield that I would have gotten from the middle infield position. I wonder if part of what's going to tweak the early rounds too is the shapes of the positions. I know Owen Poindexter has written about that on The Athletic before. It's just one of my favorite draft kit pieces because it gives you an idea of how aggressively you might need to target something early if it drops off in a really sharp way where there's a lot of platoons or just a weaker player pool because of old players or unproven young players he wrote first base second base and third base all feel like spots where you get a top guy or hope you can snag someone in the bargain bin that you believe in right the middle players the guys that

go kind of in the pick 100 to 200 range are a little more uncertain at those positions. So knowing that, maybe you're pushing those guys up top to be part of your core group of hitters, depending on how you feel about the late options. Which positions did he say? He said first, second, and third. And a few other responses were saying there's a hard third base drop off. They feel that that's one of the positions that you really kind of want to prioritize early because there are a lot of flaws if you start to wait. That's interesting.

I'm looking right now at third base. I think that's generally true outside the top 100 because Max Muncy, who has eligibility at multiple spots, is coming up a brutal season. Look at this. This is funny. Arnauto Bregman Gunnar Henderson, right? You still feel like you're in the circle of trust, right?

I still don't know. Yandy Diaz. Yandy? Yandy Diaz comes after Gunnar Henderson. This is by Steamer Projections. Cabrian Hayes, who some people were like, I am out. Look at the projections. Yeah.

Jose Miranda. What? Ryan McMahon. Okay. But Alec Baum, who we're just going to give him that after that season Rendon Chapman with the 230 batting average wow

wow I would like to make sure I get at least Bregman or Henderson yeah and they're going at pick 87-88 and then there's like a 50-60 pick cliff before you get to the Muncy, Miranda, Suarez, Chapman group. Because nobody really wants to do that.

Right, so I think that's part of why you see, obviously, Jose Ramirez is a first-rounder. We talked about Witt. He's third and shortstop eligible, so that's kind of nice in deeper leagues. Machado is up there. I'm actually playing more third than short this year. Yeah, based on how your lineup is built.

But I think that's where Riley and Devers get that extra little lift too, is that they're third baseman. That's why Riley's a second rounder right now. Yeah, an early second rounder based on how things are going. I still can't rectify the difference between Arenado at 37 overall and Bregman at 87. That's just too big of a gap. But the problem with waiting on that gap is if you know

more than half the room doesn't have a third baseman all it takes is one person saying i'll take him at 60 i'll take him at 65 like you you could play that game of chicken and get absolutely roasted by yeah like you don't take run down arenado because you think bregman and henderson are your stop gaps like your your what's it called your fail safes or like your safes, your fallbacks, and then Arnauto Bregman and Henderson all going around. That's not

impossible. Yeah, so I could just see a lot of my builds having a circle of trust at third base, similar to past years at closer, where I'm really trying to get someone early on that I feel is good for 600 plate appearances and capable of being kind of a cornerstone in my lineup. Yeah.

I wonder how many gunners I'll have. You know, there's the good and the bad with him. Really nice chase rate. Pretty good walk and strikeout rates. 10% barrel rate. 111 max EV. There's really nothing that I'm too worried about. The strikeout rate is a little bit higher than I expected, but he's actually projected to improve it.

The real question is just how many steals will he have, I guess? And if there will be any growing pains and like how much you want to trust a young a young guy like that but i do think that sometimes there is an opportunity especially when they're not bobby witt um to say uh i'm fine with gunner henderson like i'm fine with paying $20 for Gunnar Henderson because he's going to play. There's just a question of if he's good or great. He's projected for $13, by the way. $20 would be aggressive. I found last year I was hesitant to go after Witt in that range.

It turns out I was wrong. Obviously, he's a first-rounder now, and I'm still skeptical because I'm a doofus. But I think what are the outcome, the likely outcomes with Henderson, right? Like what is the probability that Gunder Henderson is a first, second, even a third round pick going into next year's drafts

versus the probability that he's an everyday guy that's just kind of good but not great versus the probability that he's an everyday guy that's just kind of good but not great, versus the probability that he is bad and bad enough to even lose playing time or possibly get demoted. And I think trying to appropriately weight that, that is a really challenging proposition for me. And I think part of the reason I'd be initially afraid of Gunnar Henderson, at least based on where things stand today, is this depth problem we're talking about. Unless we think that there are a bunch of players who are going to come in to the third base pool,

if our skepticism about the mid-round third baseman is a sign that third base is going to have guys coming into the pool later, okay, that's fine. Take some risk at third base. If it goes right, you're in great shape. If it doesn't, you're going to get your replacement. If you don't think those replacements are coming then you don't want

to take the risk at this particular position in that range and that might that might be your reason to not have henderson more than anything about henderson himself right you have to figure out like what problem can you fix in season and can you take a risk here versus at some other spot because either that category that position is easy or difficult to get i i think i'm leaning uh pro in a little bit here there's um just the yandy diaz having 641 plate appearance projected is where i'm. I just feel like that is a situation that I kind of doubt is going to shake out that way. And so there, you know,

if it's Jonathan Aranda or, you know, any one of their interesting for Curtis Mead in Tampa or a veteran or somebody that they didn't expect to play there. I see someone stepping forward there. Haseon Kim getting 529 plate appearances. And Luis Urias getting 575 plate appearances. Those are places that I'm looking where there might be some opportunity

for someone to establish themselves. Right. And it could be a player like Brett Beatty who looks blocked right now, comes up. that I'm looking where there might be some opportunity for someone to establish themselves. Right. And it could be a player like Brett Beatty, who looks blocked right now, comes up. He has third base eligibility already. Maybe his playing time even comes in the outfield. Playing somewhere else, yeah.

Maybe he breaks through because the Mets need him and he ends up being one of their important young bats that comes through this year. Maybe the Reds for all the infielders they've traded for. Maybe it's Spencer Steer or Kristen Encarnacion-Strand. People we're not even really thinking about in redraft leagues right now. Maybe players like that emerge on a few of these softer depth charts. And then those are great in-season pickups that end up kind of fixing some of this problem. Yeah, I could see.

There's ones that are not even listed. If you look, there's not 30 teams listed here. So who is the third baseman for Cincinnati exactly? Right. How interesting are the players that are not projected favorably on some of the unsettled depth charts? That, I think, is going to be an interesting thing to sort out and something that we'll dig into a bit once we get to our third base position preview for this season. There were a lot of other great responses that I'll sort of put into the positional previews because I think it'll help us sort of frame the bigger problems at hand.

So if you've got questions for a future episode, you can send those our way on Twitter, enos at enoseres. I'm at Derek Van Ryper. You can email us, ratesandbarrels at theathletic.com. That's going to do it for this episode of Rates and Barrels. We're back with you next week. Thanks for listening.