Rates & Barrels - Aaron Judge and Juan Soto Are Having an All-Time Great Season

Episode Date: August 27, 2024

Eno, Britt and DVR discuss the historical context of the 2024 season from Aaron Judge and Juan Soto by taking a look back at elite duos that have had incredible years as teammates. Plus, with the Ange...ls extending Perry Minasian, they wonder if previous levels of payroll spending from Arte Moreno will open up paths to a big free agent signing this winter, before considering several teams that approaching big decisions in their front office during the year ahead.  Rundown 8:33 How Good Is This Season From Aaron Judge & Juan Soto? 15:20 An Interesting Look at Lineup Protection from Saber Seminar 18:19 Name the Yankees' Seven Cleanup Hitters in 2024 25:02 The Angels Extend Perry Minasian, Will Payroll Rise in 2025? 41:30 Front Offices Entering 2025 on the Hot Seat 51:48 Can the Cubs Make It Work Loading Up in the Second Tier of Free Agency While Their Young Core Arrives? Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarris Follow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiper Follow Britt on Twitter: @Britt_Ghiroli e-mail: ratesandbarrels@gmail.com Join our Discord: https://discord.gg/FyBa9f3wFe Join us Thursday at 1p ET/10a PT for our weekly live episode with Trevor May! Subscribe to The Athletic: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels Hosts: Derek VanRiper, Eno Sarris & Britt Ghiroli Executive Producer: Derek VanRiper Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:00:00 What does possible sound like for your business? It's more cash on hand to grow with up to 55 interest-free days. Redefine possible with Business Platinum. That's the powerful backing of American Express. Terms and conditions apply. Visit mx.ca slash Business Platinum. Welcome to Rates and Barrels, it's Tuesday August 27th, Derek VanRyper, Inosaris Bricharoli all here with you. On this episode we discuss the Yankees visiting the Nationals and late August?
Starting point is 00:00:41 What has us interested in that series? There's some pretty interesting stuff happening with Aaron Judge and Juan Soto, plus it's a return to DC for Juan Soto, oh, and the arrival of Dylan Cruz. So a lot is actually happening in that series. Some news that happened last week that we have not discussed on the show,
Starting point is 00:00:59 Perry Minasian extended by the Angels. So we'll discuss what the Angels could do to try and get back into postseason contention in these next two seasons. It's a two year extension. And we're gonna build off that and look at some other front office groups that might be on the hot seat as this season winds down.
Starting point is 00:01:17 And as we look ahead to 2025 or some teams that look like they're going to be on the outside looking in at playoff spots this year. So we begin today with the aforementioned Yankees Nationals series. Now, Dylan Cruz's arrival is something we talked about from a skills perspective yesterday. And I think when you look at the big picture and you see the lineup as it's written out, you see like half of a really good big league lineup or at least half of a lineup. You can get excited about CJ Abrams.
Starting point is 00:01:49 Looks like a great piece from that one. Soto Trey, we talked about that a lot. James Wood looks like a potential superstar. It's having a great rookie season so far. It's great to see him there. You add Cruz. You have your catcher and Keeber Ruiz. You're starting to find some secondary pieces that might be around that young core.
Starting point is 00:02:07 And there's still more to come in that system. Brady House isn't far away from joining them. So it does feel like everything is trending in the right direction. Though I think the last time we talked about the Nats, we said, hey, the rebuild might be ahead of schedule. I think ever since then, they've played about 400 baseball. So we've really put the clamps on what looked like a promising season. All this is to say, when you tune in to watch a Nats game right now,
Starting point is 00:02:33 how do you feel compared to how you felt at the end of last season? Britt, you're around this team a lot. Have the vibes changed at least in terms of this is going to take a long time to, hey, we've got something here. Have the vibes changed at least in terms of this is going to take a long time to, hey, we've got something here. And even if we're not a playoff team in 2025, we're going to be a lot more competitive and our next great core is coming together. Yeah, I think the vibes are really good.
Starting point is 00:02:58 And, you know, I kind of disagree with that. I think the rebuild is ahead of schedule. I don't think we talked on the show like they were going to make the playoffs this year. The people that I talked to were always pretty bullish on the fact that even when they got up to a hot start, people in the organization were like, listen, we've got a whole bunch of young guys who have never pitched this deep into the season, who have never pitched this many innings. Like they're pitching early on is I think what surprised a lot of people. And that was never going to hold up over the course of a full big league season. But they saw a lot of encouraging things.
Starting point is 00:03:31 Kate Cavalli is another big guy for them who should be back at some point next year. He's a guy who had Tommy John surgery, a top pick of theirs. So you are seeing these pieces come together. A lot of this was the Juan Soto, Max Scherzer, Trey Turner trades. So I think that this team is headed in the right direction. I think they are a team that needs to now this winter, go out and spend some money in free agency,
Starting point is 00:03:58 go out and convince the fan base that we are trying to win. This window is starting. And a lot of that comes back to ownership. And ownership group that was selling the team now isn't selling the team. I think this is a pivotal winter in DC to kind of show that, okay, the young guys are here.
Starting point is 00:04:15 Now, how are we gonna supplement them? How are we going to help them? Because even if you said, even if they're not a playoff team next year, they're going to be a competitive team. They should be a competitive team. The parameters are in place for them to be one. And you would hate to see them squander away another season because ownership
Starting point is 00:04:32 doesn't think they're quite there yet and doesn't want to dip a toe in free agency. Yeah, I agree. I think that they're, uh, I think they're actually set up in a funny way to, with this, the same plan as last time, you know Like if you look at this team, you're like, oh you have everything you need except for maybe frontline pitching Like I like DJ hurts. He has a nice change up commands. Not so great. I like Mitchell Parker he's fine. You know, I think Josiah Gray is a good back end guy. Kate Cavalli, if things break right,
Starting point is 00:05:08 could be more of a maybe even a one. But the command wasn't great the first time we saw him. So I think that there's enough flaws. And then Gore, I like him a lot, but the secondaries that haven't come together, they're all sort of, they could really slot in two through five. This team would look so much better like a Strasburg at the top. You know, like I think it would make so much sense for them to, you know, throw a bunch of money at one of the best starting pitcher candidates that's out there. What's nice is thirty five million dollars comes off the books in Patrick Corbin alone.
Starting point is 00:05:43 And they're not there. They're young guys are so young that they're not about to get expensive. Um, you know, I guess CJ Abrams is going to go into the first year of arbitration, but he's not, he's not going to get, he'll get like 3 million or something, you know? So it's not, you know, they're not going to get super expensive. And they could surprise people this off season by getting a frontline starting pitcher and people being like, Oh, are they ready for this?
Starting point is 00:06:07 But I think they absolutely are. The only really hole that I see offensively when I look at their depth chart is maybe third base. And you know, they could maybe put to put together a third baseman that works or also address that in free agency or maybe put a veteran there. Otherwise, you know, I know Kavett-Ruiz hasn't hit like he wants to, and Jacob Young is probably not a big hitter, but Jacob Young is great defensively, and, you know, I don't really see a big problem anywhere offensively.
Starting point is 00:06:40 And then bullpens just come together when they come together. So this is a team that, you know, is ready to spend on a front line starting pitcher, just like they did before, I think. Yeah, actually, the player I didn't mention as part of that core is Luis Garcia having a great year. He's been a three war player. I mean, 15 homers, 20 steals. Everything seems like it's working for him.
Starting point is 00:07:00 It's one more guy they can look at as a part of that everyday group. I think the temptation to follow the template that worked last time is absolutely there. The appetite for spending is a bit of an unknown. We don't know if the pocket book will be as open as it was before, but in an off season where you're going to have Corbin Burns, Max Freed, probably Blake Snell opting out. Roki Sasaki could leave his team in Japan, although there's still some questions as to whether that happens this winter or next winter, and then is he actually gonna go to the Nats,
Starting point is 00:07:36 or will he go to a place more like the Dodgers, like all those questions. There will be some pitching available if they want to do this. It's just a matter of how much they wanna spend to make it happen. So yeah, it looks like the pieces are coming together. And as Britt said, the pitching was great to begin the year, at least a lot better than we expected it to be,
Starting point is 00:07:53 but we kind of wondered at the time, like, okay, is this going to work all year? Are teams going to catch on? And similar to what we saw with the Red Sox, like teams adjusted to what the Nats pitching staff was doing and started to put some runs on the board against them more consistently. Not not at all a shocker, but I think an organization is doing a lot of things right right now.
Starting point is 00:08:13 On the other side of this, Aaron Judge and Juan Soto just continue to do amazing things. And it's easy to look at any teammates, any two teammates, three teammates, look at the Dodgers currently and great cores around the league and just think, yeah, they're all kind of similar, right? Like they're just all stars, they're perennial all stars. Plenty of teams have multiple perennial all stars. But I think we're losing sight of just how good
Starting point is 00:08:44 Aaron Judge and Juan Soto have actually been this year. So, you know, you did some digging. Historically speaking, are we seeing something special from Aaron Judge and Juan Soto in 2024? Oh, 100 percent. And, you know, one way of saying this, well, look at the top 200 baseball seasons of all time. You know, just the top, top 200 baseball season. Right now, Aaron Judge is like in the top 15 of all time. And Juan Soto is a lowly like 140th.
Starting point is 00:09:16 Still one of the top 200 baseball seasons of all time. So if you look in the top 200 baseball season of all time, you look for people who are on the same team, you get this list. And it's amazing because you see Aaron Judge and Juan Soto at the bottom of the list, 2024. The last time anybody has been as good as them on the same team was 1942 when Ted Strong and Bonnie Sorrell on the Kansas City Monarchs beat the Grays in the World Series with Satchel Paige pitching in every game. You know, that was 1942. And before that you have Josh Gibson and Buck Leonard.
Starting point is 00:09:50 Josh Gibson won consecutive triple crowns and they were called the Black Babe Ruth and the Black Lou Gehrig or the Dynamite Twins. So like they are, you know, the second coming of Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig who did it nineteen thirty and nineteen thirty one nineteen twenty eight nineteen twenty seven so you know air judge wants are kind of the second coming of a ruthen garrick. But there also a lot of really fun names on this list in nineteen twenty one oscar charleston one one of his three triple crowns which is the most in baseball history, and he and Charlie Blackwell both hit over four 30 for the same team. In 1927, Ed Ryle and Turkey Stearns. They had better names back then. Ed Ryle's hit over 400, but he also went 11 and six with a two 43 ERA for the Detroit stars. My favorite factoid is Mule Subtles on a team where they had three guys in the top 200 ever, the St. Louis Stars in 1928.
Starting point is 00:10:51 Mule Subtles used a 50 ounce bat and hit 500 foot homers and hit a ball out of the stadium and into the ocean in Havana one time. So it's just a real great list of players, mostly Negro League and then Babe Ruth Lugarik and then Aaron Judge and Juan Soto 60 years later. And this is the age difference, the year gap, that's free agency. It's really hard, I think, to get two guys this good in the prime of their career on the same team in free agency like this.
Starting point is 00:11:27 And so I think that's, you know, that's a sort of an asterisk on this, which is like, wow, like that's why it's so hard to do this. Right, and we've seen other seasons that are really good, combinations of guys with like 140, 150 WRC pluses, but you're seeing multiple teammates having top 200 all time seasons. That's the emphasis here.
Starting point is 00:11:47 Basically 180 plus WRC plus and for Aaron Judge Wansoto, they combine for 207 WRC plus. That's better than Babe and Lou Gehrig in all but one seasons. They're basically tied right now for the best, you know, like American or National League duo of all time. Wow. And basically also like, we're talking about two players that are number one and number two in war and all of baseball. So how often does that happen? Right? Or the two best players in baseball are up there. So you're right. It's hard to think about how rare this is. And then you hear some of those names on those stories and you're like, oh my gosh, like, you know, I think it's rare to have one of these seasons.
Starting point is 00:12:32 What Aaron judge is doing without Juan Soto, what Juan Soto was without Aaron judge, um, is a season where we'd all be, you know, chasing, you know, what was going on. And judge certainly on nights, he doesn't Homer like last night, but he takes away a Homer. It still feels like, Oh, he's stuck at 51 because everyone is now involved in this. Um, so I think, um, what we're seeing right now is so cool. Even if you're not a Yankee fan, even if you're just, if you're just a baseball fan, even if you hate the Yankees, I think you have to appreciate what these two
Starting point is 00:13:00 guys are doing, um, in terms of, you know, getting into relatively uncharted territory in baseball. And also for a guy like Judge, like if he comes near this record again, if he breaks his own record again, I mean, where are we ranking this guy on the all time greats? Is he already on the Yankees Mount Rushmore? Is he just outside of that group? Because it feels like as much pressure as he's getting, we almost don't really appreciate how good he is. He's now got to be considered among the Yankees all-time greats, no? Especially if he makes a real run at that record again. Yeah. I mean, he's already hit 50 homers for the third time being at 51 this year. Injuries have kept him from making a run at that
Starting point is 00:13:45 more than he has, but the career numbers now for Aaron Judge are 288-405-606. It's pretty amazing to see it laid out like that. I think for the Mount Rushmore question, that could be a whole episode unto itself, But I think he's starting to put together a resume where he has a place in that conversation. And even two years ago, that may have been laughed at. So that gives you an idea of just how amazing he's been to play up to that level. And doing it on the wrong side of 30 too, right? Like this is a part of a career where a lot of players are beginning to decline and Aaron Judge seems to be living right in that peak, which is huge for this Yankees team.
Starting point is 00:14:28 Right. I mean, part of what I think people lose sight of, too, is because the Yankees aren't running away with the AL East. I think there's this misconception about just how good those two guys are. If those guys weren't playing at the level they were at, they wouldn't be flirting with best record in baseball, right? They've got one more loss in the Dodgers entering play on Tuesday, same number of wins. They're in that conversation anyway. It's the supporting cast that's been a little bit inconsistent, right?
Starting point is 00:14:55 We know Stanton missed time with an injury. When that happened, we talked about how he's been their third best hitter. He's important to them. Austin Wells has been a pleasant surprise, but we've got guys like Gleyber Torres and Anthony Volpe, Alex Verdugo, even Anthony Rizzo, even if he wasn't going to be great, was supposed to be good, he's been hurt, hasn't been that guy.
Starting point is 00:15:13 The supporting cast has been a bit of a problem. Getting Jez Chisholm back quickly from that elbow injury is interesting because if he's the guy he was post-trade and even before they acquired him, that's a huge lift for a lineup that needs just a little bit more from its supporting cast to be completely problematic top to bottom. And the other part of this too is I think people are wondering, well, how much does having Soto
Starting point is 00:15:38 on the roster with Judge help Aaron Judge? Because a lot of the conversations in our circles, you know, have been about lineup protection and not being able to really quantify how much it matters, right? Like that's sort of been the question, but there was another presentation at the Sabre seminar you went to this weekend that started to point toward the possibility of there being a way to actually prove it.
Starting point is 00:16:00 Yeah, it was a great presentation that looked into the question of lineup protection in a way that I hadn't seen before. And they found that that lineup protection exists. And it's not, it doesn't exist. The reason I think that people haven't found it in the past is that it doesn't really exist for like 80 percent of baseball. And if you think about it, that makes sense. Like if you're pitching to Alex Verdugo and Gleyber Torres is behind him,
Starting point is 00:16:36 like how much are you thinking about Gleyber Torres? You're just like, let me get Alex Verdugo out, right? You know what I mean? Like it doesn't exist for those guys. But what this study found was that doesn't exist for those guys. But what this study found was that it does exist for the very elite and that the difference between the batter who's batting and the batter behind them,
Starting point is 00:16:56 if it's large and the player themselves is sort of a top five, top 10% player, then it does matter. And that lines up with our intuition, right? Like if you're pitching to judge and Alex Verdugo is behind him, yeah, you're thinking about Alex Verdugo a little bit. And you're just like, I'm not gonna throw to him so much. So I'm trying to find the piece here,
Starting point is 00:17:19 but I thought it was a really good way of looking at it because that makes sense that, you know, we've, we've, we've seen some other studies that say lineup protection comes from the guy in front of you. And so it's easier to hit with men on base. There's defenders can't defend you the same way. And then also what we've seen even from this year is that when runners are on base for Aaron Judge, he gets 20% more fastballs down the middle.
Starting point is 00:17:46 You know, so when it's Juan Soto getting on base is helping Aaron Judge. The people behind him and Aaron Judge is helping Juan Soto because nobody wants to pitch around Juan Soto and get to Aaron Judge. But what's amazing about what Aaron Judge is doing is he is not being protected. And it looks like there's research that suggests that, you know, that matters now.
Starting point is 00:18:09 So, um, you know, I, I, I think that that just makes it even better. That, uh, that he's doing this, uh, Alex Opel, O P P E L did a thing on it. It was great. Uh, and I think, I think it lines up with what we think intuitively. So judge is so good, even when they're trying to pitch around and be sitting homers. Yeah. And it's even when you think about it, I mentioned the Stanton injury. Can you name the seven cleanup hitters that the Yankees have had behind Aaron
Starting point is 00:18:38 Judge? Because it's been Soto Judge to three as the default all season. But seven different players have been in that number four spot. Stanton's obviously one of them. You could just name all the Yankees at that point. Pretty much, yeah. I was really surprised when we were getting ready for this. Alex Verdugo, with 49 starts in the cleanup spot, has been used the most in the cleanup spot of any Yankees player so far this year.
Starting point is 00:18:59 More recently it's been Stanton, he's been healthy around Stanton's injuries. I think Austin Wells started to get those opportunities. I think that's why Stanton's health is actually an underrated part of this team's future in the playoffs and the rest of the season because I think it is a little bit harder to pitch around Judge if you got to get to Stanton. It's not like Stanton is, you know, Judge, but he's you don't really want to now face Stanton with like two or three men on base, you know? Yeah, yeah. Because Stanton still just hits missiles.
Starting point is 00:19:28 He still owns the Statcast era in terms of just top end power production. But yeah, those seven hitters, Alex Verdugo, John Carlos Stanton, Austin Wells. I mean, Torres, is Torres even on there? Ben Rice and J.D. Davis. Austin Wells, 19 times. Glaver Torres, Anthony Rizzo, Jzo, JD Davis, even a handful of times. JD Davis, who was on the team for like a week. Yeah. So that's been a problem.
Starting point is 00:19:53 The Verdugo-Wells combination has been a problem as of late for Yankees fans. Like, it's just not, they need, like, you guys are right. They, they need like one more hitter to really, I mean, I know you'd ideally like just a deeper lineup in general, but just one more hitter to really, I mean, I know you'd ideally like just a deeper lineup in general, but just one more hitter would extend them, I think enough that they weren't just a team that was like judge and Soto. If judge and Soto don't perform, they have a hard time winning. I'd love to know their record when judge and Soto have like one hit between the two of
Starting point is 00:20:19 them or no hits, right? They do seem like they have that one if they stretch that line of just a little more and you mentioned Stanton like he's capable still now of like going on tears. He's had little mini tears here. So and I like I like Torres Torres is showing some signs of life. He's a little bit better recently. But there's been like Yankee fans have been wondering like, you know, should you have Dominguez up here? Like what, what should you know? I think,
Starting point is 00:20:48 Anthony Volpe has been, you know, I think a little bit of a disappointment that they were hoping he'd take a bigger step forward this year, uh, offensively. So I think that they've really gotten lucky with these two guys. And then everywhere else, it seems like these guys have not been able to, to meet those expectations at all. And they've only been able to cover for it. Like you said, Derek, I think they wouldn't even be a playoff team. If you took judge and, and Soto out of this lineup, forget the best record in
Starting point is 00:21:13 baseball, I don't think they'd be a playoff team. They'd be a fringy wild card team at best. If those two guys were not on the team right now, I mean, what are they combined for? Yeah. I mean, it's, you know, how how many how much more did these two combine for? I think they'd be totally out of the playoff race. Yeah, I think you're like 16 wins above replacement combined
Starting point is 00:21:32 with those two guys right now. I do think Jason Dominguez should be a part of this sooner rather than later. I mean, there's reasons to like Volpe. There's reasons to believe Torres could rebound. There's a lot of things you can look at and say that could also get better. I think that's a good point. I think that's a good point. I think that's a good point. I think that's a good point. I think that's a good point. I think that's a good point. I think that's a good point.
Starting point is 00:21:48 I think that's a good point. I think that's a good point. I think that's a good point. I think that's a good point. I think that's a good point. I think that's a good point. I think that's a good point. I think that's a good point.
Starting point is 00:21:56 I think that's a good point. I think that's a good point. I think that's a good point. I think that's a good point. I think that's a good point. I think that's a good point. I think that's a good point. I think that's a good point.
Starting point is 00:22:04 I think that's a good point. I think that's a good point. I think that's a good point. I think that's a good point. I think that's a good point. It was an actual move to help them beyond this season, too. So I really like that. I keep forgetting about jazz. I think it was the injury and stuff, and he's just not been a Yankee. And he got back quicker than expected to with the time the injury happened. We didn't know if he's even going to come back this year. So I think that's been the pleasant surprise. One other thing is the Yankees are one of two teams averaging more than five runs per game this year.
Starting point is 00:22:21 So despite all of the shortcomings of the guys behind Soto and Judge, the second highest scoring team in baseball, the Diamondbacks are the only team that have outscored them. Every time I look at Arizona's run production stats this season, I'm surprised. This is yet another time, even with all the previous times have been surprised, I'm still surprised to see them atop that list. They're the opposite too of the Yankees, right? Like I mean, I guess Katel Marte is like, he's going to get MVP votes, right? But you know, it's not like a dynamic duo or whatever. I mean, the two leaders in WRC plus are Katel Marte and Jock Peterson, you know. Instead it's more the fact that they are a non, like a offense you know they have among their top players i'm gonna i'm gonna i'm gonna shoe horn corbin carroll into league average is that 97 wrc plus let's give me a average he has been more like that he's been better than the average recently.
Starting point is 00:23:26 three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine, ten regular players with a better than 100 WRC plus and if you count Josh Bell who's been that while he's been there that's 11. So that's just a lot of depth. It's a lot of good players. They kind of paper cut you to death, I think. Right. Without anyone in the top five, right? I mean, they just really, yeah, they're very, very deep lineup. I think we, I mean, we did this last time when we put together the NL West talk and
Starting point is 00:23:49 then we totally forgot about Arizona. Like it's, I mean, could they win the West? They definitely could. They pitched, they hit, they're a pesky team. I think they just don't have that star power, which is why we like, they never register on the national consciousness, right? They're in Arizona, one, they're in a smaller market, a market that's not quite as rabid. And, you know, they get overtaken by the star power of the Dodgers.
Starting point is 00:24:11 And certainly, you know, the Padres as well. So they that's a really interesting point, how deep that lineup is, because you if you were to ask me, I mean, we talked about this yesterday. But if had I not known, would you guys have guessed Arizona? I'd have like three or four teams ahead of them before I went to Arizona That's showing my my 12 year old son and he was like what? And he's like a big NLS fan like and he loves Corbin Carroll and like he was so surprised Yeah, we've been proven wrong by the Diamondbacks a half dozen times at least on this show and still wouldn't have
Starting point is 00:24:45 guessed that they were the highest scoring team on a per game basis this season. It's just one of those things, but that depth is huge. It's kind of like what the Orioles do. And I think if Corbin Carroll gets back being the player he was for last season, which is absolutely possible if he's that superstar, it's a lot like the Orioles build where Gunnar Henderson sort of your superstar standout guy. And then you've got that great supporting cast behind him, right? Just no easy, no easy at bats for opposing pitchers to try to navigate that lineup. If you're an F1 fan, you'll know that this season has evolved into one of the most exciting
Starting point is 00:25:16 and unpredictable of recent times with an incredible seven different winners from four different teams. It's impossible to predict what will happen in the second half of 2024, but one thing you can be sure of is that the Race F1 podcast will be with you every step of the way, with myself, Ed Straw, and some of the best F1 reporters in the world on the ground at every race to bring you the inside track on the stories that matter. Just search for the Race F1 podcast on your podcast app of choice and join us twice a week, every week for your regular F1 Podcast on your podcast app of choice and join us twice a week, every week, for your regular F1 Fits. Let's move on to the bad place. It's not bad in the sense that Perry Minasian is necessarily bad,
Starting point is 00:25:56 but it's surprising, I think, to some that Perry was given a two-year extension with the Angels. Now, given a two-year extension with the Angels. Now, I think the Angels are a very difficult team to evaluate a GM for. They've burned through a lot of GMs in the Arty Moreno era. So Perry getting two more years right now will I think make him the longest tenured GM of anyone who's started and finished
Starting point is 00:26:22 in the Arty Moreno ownership era for the Angels. Four or five years tends to be the norm. So he'll go longer than that if he's there for these next two years. That's what you get. But if you know that also, like you know that going in, if you take that job, that means that you're not on any sort of six year plan. You're on like a three year plan because you're like, I'm not, I need to get re-upped again in year four or five.
Starting point is 00:26:44 I think what's probably challenging about the Angels job, aside from never feeling like your plan because you're like, I'm not, I need to get re-upped again in year four or five. Yeah. I think what's probably challenging about the Angels job, aside from never feeling like you have the full support of getting the resources you want for player development and coaching in certain aspects that make an organization consistently better, is that you get a pretty good payroll most years. And I think that elevates the expectations from Artie. If Artie has a top 10 payroll most years, he think that elevates the expectations from Artie. If Artie has a top 10 payroll most years, he's going to expect big results. If you don't get big results,
Starting point is 00:27:11 then you lose your job. I do think what's tough is Perry's there in the era where Shohei Otani leaves you a free agency. I don't think that's Perry's fault. I think any reasonable person would say, well, sure, Perry would have given a show. Hey, every single dollar the Dodgers did if he could. And it wasn't it probably didn't come down to his final say, right? It was just something that was out of his control. The Mike Trout injuries are not the fault of any person in the front office. It's just something that's happened. It's unfortunate, right? So then you start looking at the bigger picture and say, okay, well, what about like trades and drafting
Starting point is 00:27:47 and some of the strategy and philosophical approaches of this front office? Do we think there's enough good there to believe that in these next two years, with typical resources, there are a few moves that can be made to get the angels contending in the AL West again, and possibly back into the post season. Is that unreasonable? Because there are some things that have worked, right? The Brandon Marsh trade to get the Angels contending in the AL West again, impossible back into the postseason. Is that unreasonable?
Starting point is 00:28:05 Because there are some things that have worked, right? The Brandon Marsh trade to get Logan Ohapi was a really good trade. On the flip side, making that push last year for Lucas Gialito and giving up Edgar Caro, Kai Bush, that wasn't great because they ended up purging the roster and they were pretty far out at the time, right? So you have some good, you have some bad. The rushing players to the big leagues approach with Zach Neto looks like that's worked really, really well. With Nolan Shanuel, I think the jury's probably still out. And I think Eno and I have
Starting point is 00:28:32 talked about the ceiling being probably a little lower than we'd like for a player at first base, but you can at least see glimmers of good decision-making and the possibility of a core coming together. And then you just have this open question, much like you do in DC, of, is this team going to spend like it has historically? This season, opening day payroll is down around 170 million. Usually, going back to even just one year, the Angels are in the top 10 in spending. They were at like 212 in 2023. So is Perry going into this off season with a chance to make a run at top end pitching
Starting point is 00:29:11 or some of the free agents that could bolster this roster in a hurry? I think it's possible for them to be competitive. I don't know if it's sustainable unless they are investing under the hood. They to me are very similar to the White Sox in that Jerry Reinsdorf owns the White Sox, will invest in the big league team. The White Sox have carried payrolls before. What he won't invest in,
Starting point is 00:29:35 and what Artie we know doesn't like to invest in, is the stuff under the hood, the minor leagues, right? They were, the Angels were one of those teams that during COVID, remember, didn't want to pay their minor leaguers had to be shamed into paying the minor leaguers furlough their employees almost right away. Player development has been an issue there so I think the problem is you see this big fancy house that they built aka their big league payroll over the years and it looks
Starting point is 00:29:59 really good but it's built on a shaky foundation and then we wonder why you know the first storm comes along and the house just gets leveled. I think that is what the Angels organization has been. Now, I don't think that's necessarily on Perry. I think a lot of front office executives want to start there. Know that you have to start there. Go on to the days where you can't have, where you can just will your way in free agency to a good
Starting point is 00:30:25 team. We've seen that crash and burn. We've seen it crash and burn many times. My question, and I don't know if you've done digging on this, is like, is their player development better? Are they putting resources into analytics down there, into better coaching down there? Are they starting to innovate and not just trying to play catch up, which is what the White Sox do? Like, oh, all other 30, you know, 29 other teams are doing this.
Starting point is 00:30:51 I guess it's time for us to start doing it. That's not how you win. You win by pushing the envelope. You win by investing in the infrastructure and you win by doing those little things right in the margins because that is what pays off. and that's what keeps, you know, the injuries that always happen at the big league level. That's what keeps these organizations going is having that kind of depth and the Angels haven't had that over the years. So I think they can get lucky and stumble into a winning season here and there. And a lot of that is that division. Seattle's a mess. Oakland's a mess, right? Houston, it feels like, you know, has been the only sustainable winner out of there in a while, and they're not very good, and they're still probably going to
Starting point is 00:31:28 win the AL West. I feel like the Angels could stumble into a year or two, but we're not going to see that consistent success until they apply that to the real, you know, stuff that people don't see, that foundation of the organization. It has to be a place where people want to go where new ideas are accepted or they take care of people. That's how you change a culture. I don't know if that's being done in Anaheim. Yeah, and I, you know, given Perry's, you know, history, which is really interesting, just coming all the way up from being like a clubby, I think he, you know, hews close to players and scouts, and I think that's his strength. But at the same time, when you have players in Anaheim that have won there, who have an outsized voice, what ends up happening is they want to make the organization
Starting point is 00:32:22 in the shape of the last organization that won there,, and it's that becomes a little bit retrograde. And my example for this is just that they did hire some really interesting names and they had a couple of guys, Dylan Axelrod. And I forget the other name. They had to to kind of pitching directors that were a little bit more progressive, were more about the numbers and that I personally had plenty of players reach out to me and say, you know, those guys were the best coaches we had. They were let go because a former player said, why is everybody on their laptops? You know, why, why is there all this data and tech? Let's just get out, you know, and so, you know, if you if you get if you just let that voice determine too much of your future, then you're just not going to be on the cutting edge when it comes to player development. That's that's been the long term thing. And I know that they've been trying to change that. But when you have, you know, they make these little
Starting point is 00:33:19 forays into it and then they just give up really quickly. It means to me that, you know, I don't really trust their minor league, so their minor league development. And so when you say like, you know, it's easy for me to say like, okay, the angels, they're good up the middle, you know, they've got Zach Neto, they got Logan Ohapi, like they've got, you know, potential sender fielders that can play well, like they've got, they're good up the middle, they've got some pieces, Christian Morris is raking in double A. Like they're going to push him and all of a sudden, Hey, you got a keystone combo. That's pretty good. And like, you could see it. You can, Oh, you're Kayden Dana. Kayden Dana is pitching, you know,
Starting point is 00:33:54 he's got a two 52 ERA in double A and striking out 27% of the guys. But I don't know if Kayden Dana's stuff is actually major league ready. And I don't trust them, you know, to produce an ACE. If they did, if they produce an ACE, you'd be like, Oh, what if they drafted the next Paul skeins and added that to their Kayden Dana and all of a sudden they have pitching and trout has like a resurgent year and it's healthy for a year. You could kind of like tell a story where the angels were good for a year, but I, you
Starting point is 00:34:23 know, I don't, I like, I agree with you on that. I don't, I think there was like, there could be a year there's a good, but I would say that this, this organization is still, you know, um, you know, on the hot seat. I mean, if you, if you were going to talk about GMs on the hot seat, I think you would, you would kind of include Perry because he, you know, he needs to be changing things on the player development level. And, and I think like sort of pointing to Neto and pointing to more is more like, well, Perry because he you know he needs to be changing things on the player development level and and and I think like sort of pointing to netto and pointing to more is more like well you scouted those guys
Starting point is 00:34:50 and you gave them really high picks so it's not necessarily that's not a development win where are the like relievers that you turned out of nothing where are the like you know pitchers you claimed on the waiver wire that you turned into you turned into a third or fourth starting pitcher. You know, that's player development, that's coaching, and I haven't seen as much of that. And that's where I think, just using the Nats as one of the other comparisons, I do think Brits call it angels, white socks,
Starting point is 00:35:15 a lot of similarities in terms of ownership relative to like what ownership thinks and what ownership wants to do and then what constraints you have to kind of work with to make it happen there. But even with the Nationals, I think we're seeing a little bit of growth in terms of their ability to churn out some other big leaguers, even if they're not taking fourth round draft picks and turning those players into stars. They are finding ways to develop pitching in ways they haven't in the past, right? That's where I think you're seeing that improvement.
Starting point is 00:35:41 in ways they haven't in the past, right? That's where I think you're seeing that improvement. DJ Hertz came over for two months of, oh man. Yeah, they've been trading guys away and they've been turning those guys that they get back into players, which we know that 80% of the guys that get traded at the trade deadline don't turn into players.
Starting point is 00:36:00 I think Sean Doolittle has been really good for the Nationals in kind of bridging the digestible, like taking like the whole I pitched with like, I'm really into the analytics because the Nats were late to that game. I think Sean Doolittle has done a nice job of at the big league level helping those guys where they didn't have that resource before. But yeah, I think, I think, listen, I think the Nats are in a much better situation, both organizationally and from the ownership level than the White Sox or the Angels are. I mean, those are jobs that unless I think ownership changes hands, it's going to be almost impossible to field a sustainable winner because
Starting point is 00:36:34 you're talking about two old guys who own that team who just aren't going to change. You're not going to change how you feel. For the Angels, it's like, what is it, 02 that they won? And they celebrate that team. And then for the White Sox, it's like 2005. And you have all these people that are still in the organization and that ownership surrounds themselves with that say, well, we did it this way and we won. We can do it again. And you can't. The game has changed. Too many people are innovating. It's the equivalent of, I had a major league manager float to me. Imagine being in the SEC and saying, we're not going to change anything. You're a new school, you get in the SEC and you're like, we're not upgrading our facilities, we're not going to
Starting point is 00:37:16 upgrade our coaching staff, we're going to do it like this because we won 10 years ago like this. People would riot. You have to be innovative. You have to at least do what your competition is doing and the teams that don't are so far behind the eight ball. You know, can you win without good analytics? Yes, but it's a lot harder. Why would you want to make it even harder to win consistently at the big league level? Yeah.
Starting point is 00:37:40 There's a quote out right now that Chris Gretz thinks the bullpen is a priority. And I always want to give I want to give everybody in a front office a little bit of grace when they're asked questions that they don't want to answer and they have to say something. There must be some context. You just stick something out and everybody just goes with that. That's what you said. I think that can happen sometimes. I don't know.
Starting point is 00:38:03 There must be some other like maybe just listing them among the many priorities, but it shouldn't be top five or six. Anyway, um, you know, and this is kind of, I think we're laughing about that with the white Sox. The angels are a little bit better team. Yeah, much better big league roster right now. And that's in a year where they've had Mike Trout missing a lot of time again, but in the time that he was healthy, showing that he at least still has some game changing power. And if they can find a way, I don't know if it's possible, but if you can find a way with the DH, we've talked about this before, to get 130, 140 games out of Mike Trout in a few of these upcoming seasons, that goes a long way towards pushing you back
Starting point is 00:38:45 toward a level of respectability that if you then tack on the right combination of a couple of free agents and a trade or two, you actually could be pretty decent again, but it's not going to be as easy as it should be for a payroll that size for the reasons we outlined. And by the way, that trade wasn't CJ Edwards, it was Jim or Candelario, but a rental.
Starting point is 00:39:08 You turned a rental infielder into a long-term possible starter. That's a pretty huge trade just to start fixing your flaws. Yeah, and the cryon tells me that I should be talking about, will the angels return to the 2023 spending levels? And I have been thinking about this. I've been looking at their payroll page. And my guess is that if you were going to return to not necessarily peak spending levels, because that might be aggressive,
Starting point is 00:39:37 considering I don't know if you think this team is at that level. But if you return to previous spending levels, they might have 30 million dollars now, you know, to spend this off season, maybe 40. I don't know that 40 million dollars turns this team around. I mean, what do you do with your 40 million dollars? I think you you really want to focus on pitching. So let's say they may see you. You listed some of the names, Freed, Snow, one of those guys.
Starting point is 00:40:04 Let's say you let's say you went to the mat and got one of those guys for $30 million for five years, five and 150 or something. Maybe you went to that for Snell, because you're like, the other guys might take more. So there goes $30 million. What are you doing with the other 10? You need a second baseman? No, they're going to play Christian Moritz second base
Starting point is 00:40:29 for I think most of next season. All right, so let's see if I. And I guess you'll just play Rendon, you know, and Ohapi and Shenuel. So you can play a Renhefo. Taylor Ward's pretty good. I guess you could you would buy an outfielder. Right now their DH is Nico Cavadas or Brandon Drury.
Starting point is 00:40:47 Like buy one more bat because the bullpen could come together. Joyce is good contrasts and better in the bullpen. You just hope your bullpen. You put some guys in the bullpen and get better. So I guess a 10 million dollar bat. But what's a 10 million dollar bat? It's not even necessarily a league average. Like a Jamer Candelario.
Starting point is 00:41:05 If we look back at last winter. Signed Justin Turner. Oh man, another, how many years do you think we're going to squeeze out of Justin Turner? Let the guy retire. Yeah. Let him move on to the next phase of his life. JD Martinez for DH.
Starting point is 00:41:20 Yeah, JD Martinez for like 4 million. Yeah, I mean, that's probably the bin they'd be shy. If they land a big pitcher and follow the script that you're talking about as far as having about that much to spend. Yeah, that's the that's the level. Now are they done? And how good are they? How, you know, where would you put them like they you wouldn't
Starting point is 00:41:37 project them first in the division? Would you even protect? I would project them in the same place that a bunch of other teams with front offices on the hot seat are living right now, like outside of the playoffs, but like having aspirations of being there and having payrolls of like needing to be there. Right. Like that's, that, that's what I keep thinking about when you say what other teams are in this situation, like a two year extension is nice, but it's not, that's not five.
Starting point is 00:42:04 A lot of times when someone's safe, they get about five years. And we have a few teams that are nearing the end of those five year deals with the with their either president of baseball operations or the GM titles. Very, of course, organization to organization. But I came up with five other teams that I think are probably thinking real hard about this next year as a critically important year to evaluate front offices and maybe make some changes. So let's see if we agree with this list.
Starting point is 00:42:32 I have the Blue Jays, the Mariners, the Giants, the Cubs, and the Cardinals. And the Cardinals are only kind of written in pencil on here because I realized John Mozelak, his contract is up at the end of 2025 and he's already publicly expressed an intention to retire at or near the end of that contract. So I mean, I don't know if you're really on the hot seat if you say I'm leaving soon. The buzz of the seminar was that he's going to retire a year early and that's going to be the
Starting point is 00:43:01 transition this off season. But then the question would be, would the replacement be someone like Chaim Blum, who joined the organization this past off season, or to be someone in-house who's been there longer? I think that's the kind of relative hot seat question you'd ask given some of the issues that have happened there. But is that about right as far as the other teams that you'd look at and say, lofty goals haven't quite been hitting them the last couple of seasons and contracts on a lot of key people in those front offices running out either after 2025 in the case of Jed Hoyer or I think 2026 for Ross Atkins in Toronto. I can't find Jerry DePoto's contract situation. I'm sure it's out there somewhere. They're not all public. Yeah, I think so. I think if we're talking about just this winter, yes. I think there are a few of you go back to Pittsburgh maybe as a year away from us having that conversation too.
Starting point is 00:43:49 Right? I don't think maybe this winter, but I think they need to, they keep showing flashes and not being able to sustain it over the season. So I'll be really curious next winter how we view Pittsburgh and what they're doing. But I think the rest of those,
Starting point is 00:44:05 for sure. And see, look, Seattle, I mean, you can make the case, just getting rid of your manager is clearly not enough. I mean, Jerry DePoto has a lot of blame for what is happening in Seattle. So I would put that at the top of the list. Like if we're ranking it as like a hot meter, that's gonna have a lot of, in my opinion, a lot of, a lot of smoke there versus.
Starting point is 00:44:28 I think, yeah, I think that's the most, you know, that's the toughest one, Seattle, because I agree with you, but then I did this last three years wins. So that's last three years. We're not, I'm not doing a big long one, you know. Yes, Dodgers are always number one. Seattle has one more win in the last three years than the Guardians. It has seven more wins in the last three years than the Twins. It has 11 more wins in the last three years
Starting point is 00:44:57 than the Diamondbacks. I think the difference for me, this is awful, because now I'm thinking like an owner of a team, which I don't really want to think like a team owner. They haven't made more money than all three of those teams though, too. And what have the twins accomplished as of late? Playoffs last year. I mean, it's just like the 10th best record in the last three years.
Starting point is 00:45:17 They never went, they never go anywhere. What are the guardians done? Wins per dollar, they've done really well. They're having a great year this year. Don't get me wrong, but it's not like you named the Dodgers and the Yankees. But I did name some teams where the front offices aren't in trouble. No, true. So it's like it's one of those things where I think he can make the case at least
Starting point is 00:45:40 for one more year. We're getting better. We didn't make it this year. But Jerry Di Depoto, I don't think he's even won that 54% of his games that he claimed is their goal. Over his time there. I've got that right there in front of me. 244 and 211. Like, isn't that the goal? Isn't he 54? Is 54 the big percent?
Starting point is 00:46:02 53.6! Like there's not the goal, isn't he 54, 54, the big, the big percent 53.6 that he said was the big point of the, you know, I don't think somebody winning 50% of the time. He was, I mean, you rounded up it's 54. That's what he said he wanted. And people crushed him for that. Cause it's like a ridiculous goal. But I mean, it also means that, you know, on some level, ownership agrees with him
Starting point is 00:46:26 and he could say, well, I've got you. You're 54%. And the Poto era goes back to the start of 2015, so it's a long window for him. And I guess that's the other question is is like, even if you have the regular season success quantified similar to the way, you know, laid it out there where it's like, okay, yeah, 53, 54% of your regular season games over a long window, that's only three years you were talking about. But let's just say it's about that over the life of a 10 year window. I do think after 10 years, if they aren't doing it sooner,
Starting point is 00:47:06 they're definitely looking at your playoff resume in a window that long. Like, yeah, you sustained regular season quality. One playoff. But one playoff appearance in 10 years isn't going to get it done for any organization. That's when just about any ownership group is gonna say, all right, it's time for us to make a change
Starting point is 00:47:25 because we need to have more success that at least leads us into October. And then the next frontier beyond that is winning in October. But- Winning in October, yeah. Yeah, like I guess I don't understand either. You know, like they haven't even had regular season success. It's not like they've won the AL West every year.
Starting point is 00:47:41 It's not like they're the Braves. They keep winning the division and they can't go deep a lot of the times. They finished second every year. The average start for him is, yeah, their average finish is probably second, somewhere between second and third. I don't even think of them
Starting point is 00:47:52 as a regular season's success club. It's not like they've raised eight AL West banners over that stretch. Fair point. Now, here's the other question. If you happen to be in a division with a team that's historically at least very good and maybe better than that, I don't know how you want to contextualize the Astros.
Starting point is 00:48:09 You get pretty big. I mean, I think they're a pretty darn good Astros team that they've had to deal with for the last decade. Like you do have to factor that in a little bit, right? Like if the other organizations just flat out better than you and you're stuck in that wild card race because you just happen to exist. If you were in the same division as the 90s Braves,
Starting point is 00:48:30 does that mean you were bad or are you just in the wrong place at the wrong time? For 10 years though? You'd think you'd break through one year. I mean, we get the same question. Even the year that made the playoffs, didn't they on like the last day lose first place. But I think this is the same kind of thing you'd have to have
Starting point is 00:48:47 when you're grading the front offices of the NL West, looking at the comparing them to the Dodgers over the last decade almost. Like when you compare the Padres to the Dodgers, you compare the Giants to the Dodgers. And the Giants are in that tricky spot where it's like, they won three titles in five years, another 10 years removed from that last title.
Starting point is 00:49:10 So it's it's pretty far back in the rear view mirror. The expectations are still high in the fan base, but everything's changed since then. You had one really great season. I think you can compare the Dodgers though. You're saying they spend more than the Guardians. Yes, but they're like a 140, 150 million dollar team. Like this is a very middle. Yeah, they're not they're not absurd. They're not spending 200 million every year and finishing second either. But I just think when when you have other teams around you, they're spending a lot less and winning as much as you. Then you have to look at the postseason.
Starting point is 00:49:37 If you're not getting to the postseason and winning there, that's that's where I think the Mariners would be in trouble because they don't have that success. The Blue Jays, we've talked a lot about on this show. I mean, I think knowing that Ross Atkins' contract runs through 2026 makes me think 2025 is the let's run it back with this core, try to tweak it, try to get it right one more time. That's what their trade deadline suggests that they're doing too.
Starting point is 00:50:00 So I mean, that's kind of where we landed on that previously. But what about the Cubs? What do you make of the Cubs? Jed Hoyer's contract runs through 2025. And we've talked about the quality of their near MLB ready prospects. We're seeing P Crow Armstrong already make an impact as a great defensive center fielder, guy with speed showing a little more at the plate recently. But do you feel like it's going well enough overall where you'd say Jed Hoyer's not on the hot seat or do you think they need a post-season appearance either by some miracle rallying this year
Starting point is 00:50:34 or in 2025 for Jed to continue heading up that front office beyond next season? I don't think they may move. They just got Craig Council. So if they hire somebody else, that person's not gonna get to pick their manager. For how many years did Craig Council sign for? A million?
Starting point is 00:50:49 A million, yeah. That's a lifetime deal. Roughly a million in manager land. And I just think that when you look at Cubs ownership, they haven't been like a knee jerky. We must win where the Cubs team lately. So I think Jed Hoyer will get more time. They're probably the lowest on my list. When we're talking about urgency, I disagree with you guys on Toronto. I don't, I think. Wait, what do you think about Toronto? You think they might make a move in this
Starting point is 00:51:17 off season? Yes, I do. I don't think that having a year left matters that much. That happens all the time. Yeah, that's what I was going to say. That is two years. Yes, the 26th. I even think I think two is still actually in the realm. When you get it, that's what I was going to say about Perry's deals. You get a two year deal. We can still fire you next year. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:51:37 Farhan, we haven't gotten to the Giants, but Farhan got a two, I think a two year deal last year and he could still get fired this off season. Yeah, I don't think that matters quite as much. I think the Cubs are maybe in the safer. I know Cubs fans are upset, but they did kind of try this winter. They're like such a weird, yeah, they're such a weird team when you look at it and they were in town, I don't know about a month ago when I saw them and you kind of look around, you're like, where are the stars, right? They're just like a, it's a very interesting team. How do you get to $230 million and your stars are Bellinger and Swanson? It seems a little weird.
Starting point is 00:52:15 I guess they, what they did was instead of buying the very best free agents, they bought like the second and third best free agents. So they did that a lot of times. Yeah. And it's still very expensive, right? I mean, that's just the way it works. So even if you can't get to the very top, say a Suzuki, good player, it's like 17 million per, 18 million per, I think, something in that range. Ian Happ retaining him over 20 million AAV. So yeah, it just, it adds up. I think it's okay. Like we talked about this earlier, looking at the differences between just like the Yankees versus the Diamondbacks. What if there's another notch kind of closer above you're above what the Diamondbacks do in terms of spending and the quality of your players,
Starting point is 00:52:53 but you're not at the top heavy level that we are accustomed to, right? Like that's kind of where I think the Cubs live. And that could work. They might have I'm guesstimating here, they might, they might have, I'm guestimating here. They might, they might have some money to spend actually. I'm seeing them at about $70 million short, maybe $60 million short of luxury tax. And they spent right up to the luxury tax this year. So if you had $60 million,
Starting point is 00:53:24 I think you could probably turn this team around. I mean, again, we're doing the same thing. Top end starting pitching, you know, could make this Cubs team better. I think in terms of when you look around the diamond, the lineup looks like at least they have representative people at every position, right? Yeah, there's not glaring weaknesses up and down the roster for the Cubs. Maybe it would make sense for them to get a top end closer.
Starting point is 00:53:51 I think that would help. I think it's amazing how many games they have thrown away. So I think it's easy to look at them and label them as a colossal disappointment given that they made the splashy council move. They added Shota. They did a bunch of things right, and yet it didn't pay off in year one. So I think they're going to keep being pretty aggressive this winter. And I just wonder, will they go to the top of the free agent class?
Starting point is 00:54:19 And then it's like, as far as relievers go like what elite reliever is available in this year's class? I don't know if that option's even out there. Yeah. I know all the top end starting pitching, but we are, we were trying to award that top end starting pitching to every team we've talked about. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:54:39 There's only so many of them to go around. Let me see here. Relief pitching. Kenley Jansen is a free agent. Ryan Presley vested. Craig Kimbrel has a club. I've done that before. A world is.
Starting point is 00:54:58 Yeah, these guys are all old, too. Yeah, there's not Paul Seewald. Yeah, but there's not there's not a hater or an Edwin Diaz or someone on that. Trade for Devin Williams. Trade. What are you what are you doing to me here? You know that Devin Williams and the and the Brewers are going to part ways before his contract. I don't think they would trade them to the Cubs though. Clay Holt. are going to part ways before his contract. I don't think they would trade them to the Cubs though. I'd clay home.
Starting point is 00:55:28 Okay. But to your point, like they're not necessarily going to find that elite closer on the free agent market. Maybe they trade for them or maybe they, maybe they show us. They can develop one. You mentioned Porter Hodge as someone you're picking up in your leagues. I like him, but you know, you know you know, your bullpen needs to have like- Yeah, you need a lot of guys like that. Yeah, exactly.
Starting point is 00:55:50 But yeah, you know, the other one that's, I think, I'm local here, so San Francisco, I think, seems like the hot seat is on fire, you know? And that was absolutely a discussion at Saber, Seminoles, and Hartles, like what is it that the giants are missing? Cause they spend money, but they kind of do the cubs thing where they spend money, but don't get the top end guys.
Starting point is 00:56:12 Right. You know, and they mix and match. I mean, everybody was in agreement that Farhan is amazing at roster slots, 20 through 40, you know? And I think that is true. Like he's really good at waiver pickups. He's he's he's made something out of nothing with like Blake Sable and you know, the Giants keep picking up like sort of Tyra Strada was like a waiver claim, you know, so it's like
Starting point is 00:56:35 they they keep coming up with like waiver claims. They're good at combing through what's available. You know, they're good at mixing and matching. They've done some innovative things in player development. I think maybe scouting has been a problem, but Bryce Eldritch looks good and is coming back and coming up. But you can't give them credit for Elliott Ramos because he was like a step away from being DFA.
Starting point is 00:57:02 He was available in trades is what I hear. You know, like you could have gotten Elliott Ramos anytime. Tyler Fitzgerald was a guy that they were like, okay, fine. You know, we got no other shortstop. We tried every other shortstop. Okay, fine. You're our shortstop. So, you know, there's something missing there.
Starting point is 00:57:18 And I think that the expectations in San Francisco are similar to the expectations in Chicago, which is, you know, make the playoffs a bunch, you know, win the division sometimes like, you know, we're not scared of the Dodgers like we're, we're supposed to be the Dodgers rivals, you know, we're supposed to go toe to toe with them. So, you know, I think that the 107 win season is very far in the post in the in the in the rearview mirror and I'm if I wouldn't be actually surprised. I made a change and if fine gets another year, I just wonder What kind of conversations they're having about?
Starting point is 00:57:59 If you've got a guy who's in the last year of his contract and he says, well, can I, can I go sign, you know, Max Fried for, you know, $200 million in the last year of my contract or you know what I mean? Like, who's the big, like, can I go get Juan Soto? Can I just like throw $500 million at Juan Soto or where are we in our in our relationship? Can you already see the Giants taking the bronze in the offseason Juan Soto sweepstakes? Right. What is bronze metal like they're not they're not. Oh, they're going to be one of the runner ups. Yeah, they'll be one of the runner ups. We offered him 450. Right. And that's not to blame Farhan. It's just like it seems like that's been
Starting point is 00:58:47 that their forays to the very top of free agency have been a lot of runner up. And that's going to happen because you can only sign with one team. It's the only way it's going to go. I did think one more year makes some sense, but I look at it and like, what is going to be different about that Giants team in 2025? What if you put Pete Alonzo on that team? Yeah, that's nice to hit a little more power, but does it completely change their
Starting point is 00:59:11 fate? Does it make them a wild card team instead of a fringe wild card team? That's probably about as much as it could elevate them. They're going to have to either re-up Blake Snell, cause I assume he's going to opt out or find those innings somewhere else. They have to spend some money. They've done well in that regard, though, right? They had the short deal, the short deal with Carlos Rodan. And they've they've had a couple of hits there. Gossman. So that that might be more.
Starting point is 00:59:34 Replace pictures like to sign there. So like, you know, they can easily get a bounce. Like bounce back guys love to sign there. So I don't know who the bounce back guy is right now off the top of my head. But we'll find one. Don't worry. We got time. We have not today, but we will find one. We will sign that player to the Giants many, many times over. But yeah, I think that's a it's a pretty good group of teams that are likely in a pivotal year for their front offices as 2025 approaches Shane Bieber to a two year, $30 million contractor, $40 million.
Starting point is 01:00:07 Yeah, something like that. I think it needs to be someone who can pitch right away though next year. So it might be more of a gamble where it's, you know, one guaranteed year and you get an opt-out and if you get hurt then you can opt in and interested to see what kind of deal Kakuchi gets going forward. Yeah, maybe that's the level they can get to in San Francisco this offseason We are gonna go on our way out the door a reminder you get a subscription to athletic It's two dollars a month at the athletic comm slash rates and barrels
Starting point is 01:00:33 You can find Eno on Twitter at you know, Sarah's you can find Britt at Britt underscore. Jiroli find me at Derek I'm right, but Britt's okay By the way heard something happen with her microphone like ten minutes ago so she had to just drop off trying to figure it out. We're not just ignoring her. Yeah, Brits not trying to get takes off about the giants and being muted. Her microphone just stopped working and we don't know why. But that's going to do it for this episode of Rates and Barrels. We're back on Thursday at 1 o'clock Eastern on YouTube.
Starting point is 01:00:59 Thanks for listening. thing.

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