Rates & Barrels - Adam Wainwright Injury and ADP Refresh

Episode Date: March 23, 2023

Eno and Al look at the players who have moved up and down the farthest in NFBC ADP over the last week, and they also discuss the fantasy fallout from the injuries to Adam Wainwright and Raisel Iglesias. Rundown 1:24 Who takes Adam Wainwright’s spot in the Cardinals’ rotation? 7:44 Who gets saves for Atlanta with Raisel Iglesias out? 10:36 Top ADP risers overall 27:34 Top ADP hitting risers 41:29 Top ADP fallers Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarris Follow Al on Twitter: @almelchiorBB e-mail: [e-mail] Subscribe to The Athletic at $1/month for the first year: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels Subscribe to the Rates & Barrels YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/c/RatesBarrels Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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and uh we've got a couple of big news items that just broke earlier here on a Thursday. But the main topic of discussion, we're going to take, I think, probably a final ADP refresh, see who's hot and who's not in the past week, and try to figure out why. In some cases, it's very easy to do that. But before we dig into all that, just not only a reminder, but actually a little bit of new information here on The Athletic and the Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit. There is now a new deal, a new way to subscribe to The Athletic. One dollar a month, just one dollar a month for your first year.

And that will get you in the door to see everything that's in the draft kit for those last minute drafts that you have coming up. And of course, all the other great content on The Athletic. Just go to theathletic.com slash rates and barrels rates and barrels all spelled out and then you can take advantage of that great deal so uh you know couple of news items here to get started with adam wainwright has sustained a groin strain and he is going to open the season on the injured list. So there are a couple of contenders, I would think, to go and replace Wainwright in the Cardinals rotation.

But I did see on MLB.com that Jake Woodford was considered the most likely replacement. He was already considered nearly a lock for the roster, but previously I think that would have been more in a swing man or a long relief role. So how do you see this playing out? Yeah, you know, I know that Katie Wu was very impressed with Jake Woodford in camp when I was in Jupiter about a week ago. And she actually highlighted him as probably the young pitcher that looked best that could

come up and help. However, I also just did the work for my bold predictions and those are gonna come out hopefully Friday or Monday and I looked at only pitchers that had thrown at least a hundred pitches in front of the machines and averaged more than 40 pitches per start so I think these are all starters and there are two cardinals on this list of the biggest stuff improvers across baseball dakota hudson is number two however he improved from honestly god awful to just below average whereas matthew libertor did something similar actually but they now have two guys uh in hudson and libertor that have pitched before that now have basically league average stuff for starters.

And Woodford has sort of a level below them. Now, he's been locating really well in camp. It's just that locations are harder to trust in a 200, 150 pitch sample. So if I was betting based on stuff, and that's been the most predictive of the suite, I would go, I guess, with Dakota Hudson right now. I said a couple, but yeah, a third name, because I figured Libertor was maybe next in line.

I do really like what Libertor has done with the sinker and slider. He's really improved them the most. And he could slim down his repertoire and take another step forward if he was given a shot at the rotation. And, you know, you just have when you're kind of breaking camp and you have this IL decision and you're looking at who can make the opening roster, you know, I guess Libertor's on there. He's already on the roster. But I'm checking right now to see if dakota hudson has options left he i think he

must because i think he got sent down uh in fact i think it may have been earlier today either wednesday or thursday but okay is that what well they could have tired of him after uh what was probably uh what was definitely the lowest strikeout rate in baseball among pitchers with more than 100 innings last year. So, Libertor would be at least a somewhat new idea, but he was also sent down. So,

given what they've already done, I'm guessing it's Woodford. However, for me, given their ages and their track records and their recent improvement in stuff numbers, Matthew Libertor is the most interesting of the three. Okay. And we don't have really a definitive timetable. I mean, it looks like Wainwright's going to miss at least a month here. But it's not like he was going well before. I mean, he was throwing 86s up there so yeah i mean the there

might be some old man itis going on too yeah well and i wondered about late last season and i certainly don't want to speculate at all about what was going on health-wise you know several months ago now but he was not himself for the last month or so he was the biggest velo dropper in baseball last year from the beginning of season to the end yeah so you know i don't know what the reason is behind that it you know whatever the reason is it's it's a reason why i've pretty much faded him this draft season so far and obviously now we'll we'll continue to yeah i had good stuff numbers for him and a decent projection and so i had him higher but every time i've updated the rankings he's dropped and i'm to have to drop him again. I mean, he's out of the top 130 now. I mean, I think I might put him down near sort of Trevor Williams territory

in the 150s or so. I don't know. There's not a big use case for why I would draft him at this point. Okay. Well, one other question that I just have about this, because, again, you named three different candidates who all, you know, I think there's a plausible reason why any of them could replace him. But if we just go with this report that Woodford's got the leg up on replacing him on opening day or, you know, for the first turn through, do you think there's enough time there for, say, Libertor or Hudson for that matter, to get their chance and stick more long-term in the Cardinals rotation. I mean, given he's one of the biggest

improvers, I'm going to give Libertor a chance at 75 to 100 innings. I'm going to call him the 7th starter. And the 6th and 7th starters usually get sort of 75 plus innings. So I'm going to move Libertor up a little bit. I'm going to move Woodford up again a little bit, but I don't know if he's much past Wainwright at this point. All right. Well, we've got another injury item from here Thursday morning.

Rysell Iglesias is also going to start the year on the IL. He's dealing with some shoulder inflammation. It's been termed as minor shoulder inflammation, but that's not really helping at this point with any sort of timetable. What we do know at this stage is that Iglesias is not going to throw for the next seven days. So I think you have to figure that at least for the first couple of weeks of the season, possibly longer, somebody else is going to have to step in and get saves. Do you think there's one reliever that stands to do that more than the others?

I think AJ Minter and Joe Jimenez would be most likely. Are there any other names to look at, or do you think there's one person in particular that people should focus on? It's always kind of a guess, I think, in these situations, especially with teams with players that haven't been on the team last year. You can't even look at last year's usage with Joe Jimenez. You just can't be like,

oh, what did he do last year with the Braves? He wasn't there. So what we've found in the past is VLO and strikeout rate have some predictive quality when it comes to changing roles, but both these guys uh throw gas and strike guys out i've got a 32 percent strikeout rate projected for uh joe jimenez that's uh not the way you say his name uh and aj minter a 31 percent so uh you know i think joe jimenez joe see see his last name has... See? See, his last name has a J in it

and his first name has a J in it. You're supposed to say that differently. It's weird how this works out. I've got them separated by one percentage point in strikeout rate. The other thing is managers go to lefties about half as much as you'd expect given the population of lefties in the game.

And I know that the Braves do have other lefties in that pen, but I think there is that sort of do i want to see the platoon advantage in the ninth with my closer and i think most managers decide they would rather have a righty so i think it's a menace all right it was a long-winded way of saying it for the upcoming weekend drafts, any reason to discount Iglesias significantly? Yeah. I didn't like where he was going. He was going ahead of Felix Batista

and Ryan Helsley and guys that I like better than him. I think he's got to drop into that second tier. Would I rather have Paul Seawald or Rysel Iglesias right now? I think I'd still rather have Rysel Iglesias because I still figure Munoz is going to figure into that Mariner save situation. And, you know, maybe I'm putting a little too much faith in the report of it being a minor shoulder issue for Iglesias.

It's fair. I hear shoulder and I wonder if there is such a thing as a minor shoulder issue. Fair point. Absolutely fair point. All right. Well, let's move on to some ADP developments here. We'll look at who's rising, who's falling in ADP. And as you would expect, I mean, the big movers, it's typically because, well, situations we're talking about, right?

I mean, we'll see Iglesias likely fall over the weekend. We'll see Jimenez and or Minter likely move up, just as some examples. So for example, the biggest risers in ADP, and actually I should sort of slow myself down and back this up because I should explain what I mean by rising and falling. I made a comparison between the first 15 days of this March versus the last seven days. So the 16th to the 22nd, which would have been yesterday, Wednesday. So the last seven days compared to the first 15 days in the month and the biggest mover upwards in that time, really not much of a surprise, David Robertson, his average

ADP, and this is all NFBC data, by the way. So in NFBC drafts, Robertson was at 523 for the first 15 days. And of course, now that he stands to pick up a lot of saves for the Mets, he's at 198. Adam Adovino in that same situation is second, but he's only moved up from 599 to 403. And then the third biggest mover, Michael Fulmer. Now, this is not really, you know, it is certainly not injury development, but there were reports, I want to say maybe about a week ago, maybe a little longer, that he was one of, I think, two, with of a vote of confidence from us in the fantasy community than Boxberger. I don't know. I will admit I drafted Fulmer in one league. Haven't been interested in Boxberger. So I'm part of the trend, but anything you see here at the top, that's you know,

worth commenting on. Yeah. Fulmer has, has really improved his his stuff plus this spring it looks really good um and he's at a 135 in uh in very few pitches but I think I've seen some changes to his pitch movements and uh they made a presentation to him that uh you know I think there's a piece by Hassad of Sharma about how they made a pitch to him that they could change certain aspects of his pitches and make them better. I think he's just in a better spot. He has better velo, better projected strikeout rate. He's the guy, the only guy that I thought might have challenged him was Jeremiah Estrada. I think Jeremiah Estrada will still

challenge him maybe after he's traded if the Cubs aren't good. You know, there's a lot of ways that Jeremiah Estrada can still matter in keeper leagues and stash type formats. But for now, I think it's Michael Fulmer. I think it's pretty clearly him. Julian Merriweather is another guy that's had a good spring that's staying healthy. However, the one thing that your closer has to do that not any other reliever has to do necessarily is pitch back-to-back. They may not want to pitch Julian Merriweather back-to-back because he's had a lot of health issues.

So as much as I like Julian Merriweather, I think Michael Fulmer is the guy. All righty. And if we just go down this list, and I'm not going to belabor it by reading all the names on it, but it's a lot of relievers. Well, yeah, there's a lot of relievers. There's some fifth starters getting roles.

I mean, we talked about how Jared Schuster's pitching plus is really low. But at the same time, he hides the ball really well, and he's got a fifth starter role. So if you'd like that early season for him, I think Soroka is going to come take his job but soroka reported to camp with the heart with a hamstring issue so i think soroka is going to come take his job but if you like schuster's early schedule he's fine to take as one of your last pitchers um a guy that jumps off this list for me as not even having uh kind of gone enough. There's two of them,

are Clark Schmidt and Jerickson Profar. Clark Schmidt is still gettable around 300, which represents like a 100-point jump for him, but I still really like him. I think he can hold on to the role and stave off Domingo German even when guys get healthy in that Yankees rotation. And then Jerickson Profar, man. Yeah.

A starting outfielder in Colorado at 400. I think that's still cheap for him. So I'm still in on Jerickson Profar even as the price rises for him. Yeah, I was a little bit surprised that Profar didn't move a little bit further up. He's for the last seven days at 418 NFBC ADP. But in all fairness, I think that signing was probably less than a week ago. Well, maybe I'm wrong, but I imagine maybe if we scaled

back that time window a little bit, maybe he'd get closer to the top 300 where I think he belongs. So I'm with you there. And Anthony Volpe, not really a big surprise there. A lot of hype. You have a 234 ADP. I don't know, man. Two par. I think there's some guys you can get at 234. I mean, let's see here.

Gabriel Moreno's right there, and he's a starting catcher now, and I think he's just going to keep that role all year, and there's not that much risk around him. That goes around 200. I'm looking for other names. Brendan Donovan goes 250, and Brendan Donovan is, you know, multi-eligible, lineup sp spackle goes all over your your your lineup and and he's been pulling uh more fly balls so it could be a little bit of

power break up there but you also know he's in the big leagues you know like uh you know you're pushing up on Riley Green territory he's a guy I. Uh, so I think he's got too much helium, um, where he's at. It is interesting that he's still in camp. But for example, I, I checked out,

uh, Jordan Westberg, who's still in camp with the Orioles. Right. And I, and I, and I DM Dan Connolly. I said,

is Jordan Westberg about to make the Orioles? It's like, this is a thing that's happening. And he said, um, they just had a lot of split squads oh you know it's just like sometimes you've had guys at the wbc or you you're a little bit thin there or you think he's gonna come up later and so you want him to play as much as possible with the big leaguers but he's not necessarily going to break camp you know like there's still there are reasons a guy could still be in camp this long uh that have less to do with

the fact he's actually making the open day roster and more to do with just how spring works and like what the team is thinking long term so it is interesting that he's still at the camp but so is jordan westberg and i don't think think Jordan Westberg is making the Orioles. Yeah. Well, but maybe there's still something there because maybe Westberg is one of the earlier call-ups. And that's not something I would have necessarily thought. Yes, that's something I would say yes to. Because either Jorge Mateo has a collapse possibility and Adam Frazier has a collapse possibility.

Those are the two guys they've got. Ramon Urias was a waiver claim. So, you know, there's a lot of, you know, so-so guys there. They could also get traded. I mean, I don't think any of those guys, any of those three guys I just mentioned are really in the future of the Orioles. So if there was a need somewhere else and they could pounce on it then that could happen i do think vulpe is the future of the yankees at short but they also have guys to sort through in the meantime paraza ikf you know they've got guys who can play there and i just i wonder how risk averse they're going to be in the past they've been more risk averse they've they've played guys

like ikf who just have a high floor and Parasa shows up on one of our lists it's not the risers so just building the suspense there whoa what are you listening to this for wait who's talking you know you're driving a 2024 Ford Escape with available Alexa

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and topped with marble chocolate curls. Now that's music to our ears. Available hot or iced, only at Tim's. I do want to mostly stay off of relievers, but one name really surprised me, you know, and that's Jorge Lopez as being one of the bigger risers on the list. Lopez went from 304, just outside the top 300, to, you know, pretty solid late round pick in 12-teamers, 263. And what have I missed?

Because I, you know, I did Google searches, Twitter searches, see if maybe I'd missed out on some news about the twins. Maybe there's some pundit somewhere. Yeah. Maybe it's a pundit boost. I mean, it could be. I really don't know. I don't get it.

I think Durant's so high quality that it's just going to rise to the top. It's going to be really obvious that he's the guy. They're no longer talking about him as a starter. The best thing you can do with him. Also, Jorge Lopez is one of the bigger stuff losers this spring. He's all the way down to 102 stuff plus, which is actually kind of

average for a reliever. It's not great. I find that just as head-scratching as you do. Thanks for pointing that out. I don't know what there is actionable other than maybe based on what

you and I are both saying that don't follow the crowd. If you're looking to recent ADP. What about Nick Gordon? That's an interesting one. That is, yeah. I think that has to do with the announcement that Byron Buxton would start the year playing at DH. And so there's also a possibility that Trevor Larnock makes the team out of spring it's something that Dan Hayes was saying he's hitting his way on to this roster so that's an interesting

roster if you if you ask me in terms of opportunities in the outfield I was looking for Max Kepler's name in a couple box scores and didn't see them. So I don't know what's going on with him. I would assume he's a starter every day if he's in there. And then you've got Joey Gallo who's kind of hard to bench if he's been striking out less this spring at least. And then I guess you've got Michael Taylor for defense and center. How's Larnak making this team and Nick Gordon also playing a lot ah the news is Jorge Polanco's knee is hurt there it is that's

what you were your way exactly but you got there first so yeah but that's interesting because again Polanco was also uh an ADP faller and I found that a little surprising in spite of the fact that yeah it's negative news for him but I think that was little surprising in spite of the fact that, yeah, it's negative news for him, but I think that was kind of expected. So I don't know if maybe people just were kind of hoping against hope that he would wind up being on the opening day roster and now they don't have that reassurance. So that was a little surprising, but maybe it's the same situation with Gordon and that people were holding back, not seeing where that playing time was going to come from. And now they see a window.

I personally like Gordon. I want to be convinced that there's a long-term role for him. That's a substantial role. I could see him clearing one out eventually. I mean, he hits the ball harder than his brother. That's something that people kind of maybe see the body and think, you know, this is just another D-Strange Gordon. But it's not quite the same. He definitely hits the ball harder.

Yeah. Yeah. It really makes a lot of hard contact. So yeah, we'll see how this plays out long-term. I mean, the twins certainly had their problems with injuries last season. They have better luck this year. I'm not sure that there's an everyday role for Gordon, but you never know how these things are going to play out. And I want to just bring up a couple of starters who are among the top surgers. Reed Detmers, no surprise there. In fact, I think I or maybe both of us, you know, said on some previous episode that this rise was going to come.

You've been hyping him up. You know, just about everybody in the community has been hyping him up for, I think, for good reason. 90-mile-an-hour slider is going to get people's attention. It's 95 to 97 with a fastball. Like, yeah, he could definitely take a step forward.

Yeah. It's one of the hardest things where you, you, even if you're using stuff plus to try and capture changes and see things that the results don't see young pitchers can change their mix, can come to camp, you know, with,

you know, everybody can do that. So that's the, that's the sort of chaos in project projections. It's like, oh, he's got a whole new pitch. He's a whole new pitcher. So, I mean, I would say a 90 mile an hour slider is very different than what he was throwing at the beginning of last year. Yeah. And so the difference draft wise for Detmers is that before he was a 200, now he's at 170. So kind of working his way towards the middle of the draft, which again, seems expected and appropriate. Now, another name that's moved up nearly as much as Nathan Ivaldi was at 255, now at 232. So again, kind of moving

more into solid 12-teamer territory. And this is another case where I don't think it's a bad ADP. territory and this is another case where i don't i don't think it's a bad adp i don't think it's an inappropriate adp but i was kind of surprised that that he was moving up that much so again is there something here that i've missed or maybe like you said uh yeah i mean he's throwing hard he's throwing hard and he's healthy and i think that's what people wanted to see i mean his velo he was one of the other biggest velo losers last year. It was down from like 97 to 94 over the course of the year. It was kind of terrifying to look at. And he's thrown hard.

He's thrown hard this spring and he just had a really good outing. And every time that he proves he's healthy, people who've been listening to this were ahead of that game and already had their shares of Eovaldi so you can pat yourselves on the back right now one thing that's really weird in looking at this though is how can all these people be up it's so strange there's so many relievers who

are up how can Carlos Estevez and Felix Bautista and Alexis Diaz and Paul Seawald and David Benard. How could they all be up? I wonder if it actually has to do with what kinds of leagues are in the sample here. Yeah. Because if you think about it, if you're doing a draft and hold, for example, and those happen earlier in the season, right? Earlier in the off season. If you're doing a draft and hold, I you might take a an established closer early right you might take a you know an edwin diaz uh early uh but then uh you take a big break on closers because the proposition there is so

the risk proposition is not good for a draft and hold where you can't make free agency moves right right but then when you start getting into the main events and the qualifiers and these leagues that are more about having free agency money, being able to make moves, once you get into those leagues, I think all the relievers start to sort of gravitate upwards versus the draft and holds. You know what I mean?

Like you start taking more middle round relievers. I would say maybe resist the urge. Middle round relievers are a really bad proposition. Even in, you know, 12 and 15 team leagues. I think you get in there early. You make that strike. You get somebody, a top reliever. You want to get like a top five, six reliever.

And then chill out on relievers for a really long time because people are throwing darts before they even realize they're throwing darts you know what i mean right look at evan phillips i like evan phillips the stuff numbers like evan phillips i think he's still gonna be the closer but his managers came out and said it might be bruisar graterol thanks thanks a lot and i'm just glad that i took evan phillips instead of taking jorge lopez earlier than him yeah you know um or or any of the guys that are that are now dropping uh so uh you know i think mid-round relievers just be really careful with those okay well like giovanni gallegos is up 41 points like what is that how is that that what is

that why yeah that makes no sense well except your explanation i think does make some sense out of Like Giovanni Gallegos is up 41 points. Like, what is that? How is that? What is that? Why? Yeah, that makes no sense. Well, except your explanation, I think, does make some sense out of that because then he's part of a larger trend. It's not really about him. They're taking him as a bench reliever. And a bench reliever in a 12 or 15 team league is just up above 400, right? Something like that.

Yeah. So, no, that makes sense i was thinking something that is much less plausible which is that with those top relievers going so early that maybe that all of them were going out there's gonna be some of that yeah there's got to be some of that that's that's why you see bautista going up why is bautista going up because diaz is gone yeah that and that too i didn't even think about you know the fact that there's a domino effect just from that one reliever that top reliever being out of the pool. That's a very good point that I did not consider whatsoever.

So there's a lot of relievers moving up, as you pointed out. There's a good number of starters, too. Not so many hitters. So aside from Anthony Volpe, the hitters that are moving up, they're moving up like a round or two. Seattle. A round or two. But the one that kind of stands out besides Volpe is Jared Kelnick. Yeah,

boy. What are you doing about that? Nothing, nothing, nothing. You're not in, you're not in. No,

I'm not, not at, not a two Oh seven, which is where he is now before he was a two 32. I know that doesn't seem like a big difference, but to me that that is a big difference because you're still kind of in the meat of your 12 team draft and you're definitely in the meat of your 15 team draft and i just think that he's so risky and yes he's having a great spring he's had great triple a campaigns last spring uh then he comes up and he flies out and strikes out and

you know i i at this point i see the upside as as kind of being Joey Gallo at best and maybe not even with the walks. So at 232, OK, maybe as an endgame pick. Maybe. But no, I guess we're getting towards 200. I just can't see drafting Kelnick. How about you? I just, man, I'm looking at these double a and triple a strikeout rates 18.5 percent of double a and 15.4 percent of triple a then he goes back down and it's 20.8 last year

he's working on the swing he's not striking out in spring he's projected for 25 strikeout rate that's not quite gallo ian he does not have the patience or the eye as gallo and that's really why he's been struggling so much i think he can really expand in places where he can't do anything with the ball and uh you know especially low on most sliders and stuff so but there are projections even the bat which doesn't like him is giving him a 96 wrc plus and the rest are all giving him above 100 so they're still reaching back into those minors and saying hey don't forget about this signal in those minor leagues numbers the average projection is somewhere around 17 homers and 10

stolen bases I have no issue with that at all the batting average that's the batting average yeah because they have them all what 220 220 yeah yeah it's rough i think it's like 190 200 oh you don't even think it's 220 no i don't i mean that would have to be dramatic improvement and yes it could happen he's young enough he's got the minor league numbers i mean he had a 141 average yes 200 is huge improvement tiny uh i might be able to talk myself into it all right all right well you know it's not so early that it's it's huge risk just for me it's shout out to to uh my older son uh who right now is rocking a let me see what the numbers are here. 3, 3, 1. He's rocking a 125 average, but it comes with a 571 OBP, baby. And I'm wearing his colors today, All House, Palo Alto All House.

He's got a game today. He loves it. Super excited. He's wearing his uniform to school today. So I'm wearing the hat to egg him on. And we're going to go. As the parents, we're the scorers. So it's really important to do scoring for Little League because you've got to do all the pitch counts.

And that pitch counts determines who can pitch in the next game. And it's really important for their health. So that's how we step forward. I try to whisper in the ear of the coaches. But I also don't want to be the dad who thinks he knows everything. I've seen those guys, and they can be annoying. So I try to respectfully, if you want to talk to me about baseball, I've got things I can say, but I'm not going to yell at you.

I think the likelihood that my son is a professional baseball player is not so high. So, you know, I want him to have fun and I don't want him to be embarrassed about his dad. So. All right. But you're repping the team. So. I'm repping the team. We're going to, we are going to yell go Felix today and go all house. Excellent. Go all house. Let's take a look at just a few hitters that are moving up. Not quite as fast as Jared Kelnick, but again, this like with Kelnick seems like it's helium coming from a strong spring,

a story Ruiz. Who's got a home run the spring. In addition to the six stolen bases and a three 25 average Garrett Mitchell, definitely a reverse. There are no steals at all, but, but three homers in 21 plate appearances jake fraley also we're four weeks in and ester ruiz has a homer yes he does i i would have taken the unders put some context around that

and jake fraley he's uh getting the the homers and the steals and i'm very mad at myself for not drafting j Fraley, not because he's having a great spring, but because I think it'd be cool to have a team called Fraley's Comet. Oh, there you go. Nice. He's up and so is Friedel. And you can have a Friedel's Comet too.

Yeah. That's also a good fish reference. I don't think you're a fish reference. I am not a fish fan. Okay. Been a Marlins fan, but not a... That's a good fish reference. I don't think you're a fish. I am not a fish fan. Okay. Been a Marlins fan, but not, not a,

that's a different fish. It's weird that both Friedel and Fraley are up. That is, yeah. But Friedel is a 365. So that's a real end game pick. Maybe people who are taking Fraley are also taking Fraley. That's a possibility.

But Hensley, David Hensley is up in Houston. I also saw something really weird in the box score the other day. Jake Durden was playing center field. That is weird. I thought of him. I mean, isn't he huge? I got the right

Jake Durden. Justin Durden? Justin Durden is his name. Justin Durden is 6'3". He's not the huge guy. Hensley is the huge guy. Hensley is... I see. Justin Durden is 6'3". So he's not the huge guy. Hensley's the huge guy, huh? Hensley's. Okay. I see. Hensley is the guy who might be their second baseman.

I've been presuming that. And I think I even read somewhere that he had the leg up there. Hensley's 6'6". So they've got this. But Justin Durden was playing last year year some center field some right field and some left field i just figured when i see a guy in the minors who plays all three outfield positions and not center field exclusively they're headed towards a corner outfield and they're not like necessarily a center fielder however if there is a soft spot on this roster other than second base right now it is center field and if justin

durden uh can can hit his way onto this roster uh he could be a low batting average decent obp slugger uh next to hansley who is going to be more of a contact hitter with a little less power, I think, but a better batting average and more stolen bases. Both of them, I think, are awkward fits for most leagues just because how long will they be around? They're going to be there before Michael Brantley comes back and before Jose Altuve comes back of course Altuve's gone longer but couldn't they put Mauricio Dubon at second base most days and have Hensley be the

backup yeah or in that case Dubon can play center too right who Hensley Dubon Dubon can play center yeah yeah yeah I think right now it's McCormick Myers, and center. But Durden's showing up there on the fangrass chart and in the box scores. Let's build a bench real quick. We've got to do this. Build a bench. And we're going to do it with Brantley and Altuve out. So let's put Jordan Alvarez as the starter at DH. And we're just doing that for the purposes of this discussion.

I don't want to hear about how he's a surprisingly good outfielder. Yes, I get it. I know. We're putting him at DH, and we're putting... Let's put Dubon at center for a second. Let's just do that, because that gives us a bench of... Who's in left now? McCormick. Okay, so McCormick.

We go McCormick, Myers, Tucker in the outfield? Yeah, I think that coincides with what... Duvon at second. Van Graaff's house. That makes sense. Durden's making this team. I think so too. Durden, the bench is Durden.

Hensley, one of the catchers. I guess it would be more exciting if it was Diaz, but it might be Corey Lee. So there's a catcher. There's Durden. There's Hensley. There's even room for more. So, yeah, I think Durden definitely makes the team.

I don't know that there's enough of a long-term impact there. Bly Madras could make this team. Yeah, it's interesting. Very interesting. They're definitely making this team. Dixon Machado could make this team. They've got two behind. I would say Durden, Hensley, and a catcher.

You'd still have one more, right? Yeah. You have one more. So Durden, Hensley, and a catcher. And so the last spot would be Dixon Machado, Bly Madras territory. Interesting. And might just be Bly Madras because of Brantley's injury. Well, we'll see.

I don't think Bly Madras or Dixon Machado are super interesting, but I do think Hensley and Durden are. And particularly as sort of last bats on the bench, especially if you'd like their early schedule. All right. Well, I want to bring up two more rising hitters before we get to the fallers. And I'm separating these two out

from the ones we were just talking about because they're not having good springs, so they're moving up despite that. One is Miguel Vargas. That's not too surprising that he'd be- he couldn't swing the bat for like two weeks yeah he's still he's still got walks I love that yeah so I mean I don't know that there's much there uh Jody Manessis though uh not a good spring and it's the sort of thing where I you know I was sort of wanting I don't I know I say this over and over again. I don't want to put much stock in spring numbers, but in the case of somebody like Nessus, I do want at least a little validation that, you know, what he did late last season that, you know, there's some that want to be reassured a little bit.

We're not really getting that from him. He's four for 24 and does not yet have an extra base hit. Do you have his WBC numbers in front of you? I don't have those handy. But I did want to kind of just go apples to apples here, even though it's just the 24 bats. Let me see if I can catch him quickly. 370 over there.

27 at-bats, two homers. So he did better in the World Baseball Classic. That's, of course course even more uneven than spring because uh you might be facing taipei or you're facing uh actual major leaguers and you know on venezuela and dominican republic and stuff but mexico had a long run and he still did well so i'm i'm not so worried about that one I am intrigued by a riser next to him, Franmil Reyes. He's at 594, so you don't have to spend anything on him. But he's an interesting guy because he has hit one of the 10 hardest hit balls in front of the machines this spring. And there is an opportunity for him. I think it's him or Prado in Kansas City.

And Prado has options. If I've got that depth chart sussed, maybe I'll get yelled at for this one. But I think he has an opportunity in Kansas City. Because Melendez plays the outfield. Perez has played so much. I don't know that I want him always DH-ing. Vinny Pascantino is the first baseman. And they do not have...

They have bad outfielders. They do not have any outfielders that I want to DH. I mean, you're talking about Drew Waters, Kyle Isbell, Nate Eden. Even Ali Varas. I don't want any of those guys DHing. Yeah, it doesn't seem likely that they would be, especially with Melendez. Right? Yeah.

So, I mean, maybe Melendez and Perez DH some, but I think there's actually a full-time DH role available here. And, you know. I mean, you really can't put him much anyplace else. And I don't doubt that he's going to be able to hit for power. It's just, is he going to be able to make contact anywhere close to him? And they have, like, the rest of the team has a decent amount of contact, right? Sure.

So you could have just this slugger. He's striking out 12 out of 42. That's not bad, actually. It really isn't. 29% for Franmil Re 42. That's not bad, actually. It really isn't. 29% for Franmil Reyes. I'll take that. He's three homers in 378. I think he's making his team.

He also has 42 plate appearances to Prados 36. And Prados has been playing well himself, but also striking out just more, actually. He's been striking out more than Framio Reyes. So if you're looking at that and you say, well, we got one guy with options we can send down and see if he can improve his strikeout rate or power his way through it,

or we have a guy that might be found money in Framio Reyes, and usually teams like to see what they've got with the veteran before they release them, especially since when you dfa a veteran in season sometimes you can hold on to them because other teams rosters are set and they're not able to claim it all right well yeah i mean like you said you don't have to really give up anything to get reyes so if you just have him in mind especially deeper leagues as uh that reserve round candidate or last round uh yeah i think it's a worthy risk let's go to the fallers the adp

fallers uh sad past week and i mean the the first few are are very obvious edwin diaz obviously falling off the map there andrew painter alex karaloff uh starting the season on the the il uh and then you know we get into some names uh on the list that they're not falling from uh like a mixed league place for the most part i guess juan yipez he was at 365 now he's barely in the top 500 as that roster starts to shape up that that makes some sense to me i have not drafted him anywhere um but if we you know get these 500s they don go, they don't even go on 15 team leagues, do they? No,

I mean, not unless you are really reaching team families. No. So you're right. Yeah. So, you know, some other names again to be expected,

Mitch Haneker, Brian Dela Cruz. We discussed this situation, you know, within the last week or so trying to figure out whether he or Jesus Sanchez makes the team or gets regular play. And we both sort of landed on Sanchez being out of options, being a decider there. And it looks like the fantasy community agrees.

It's such a lame thing. I mean, it's going to come up in the Dodgers outfield situation, too. If they're going to protect all assets and keep as many people on the roster as we can for as long as possible, then James Altman is going to get sent down and Jason Hayward is going to make the team. But I think maybe Altman would be better for the team. I don't know why J.D. Davis is dropping,

but he was already kind of a draft and hold type guy none of these guys are super relevant in our leagues how far up do you have to go? I mean they're dropping a hundred so if we go to players who are dropping 40-45 spots Jorge Polanco we mentioned before.

Again, I feel like that's a little bit of an overreaction going from 145 to 188, but it's understandable. Vaughn Grissom dropping more than 40 points down to 199. Is there news on Max Kepler? Because he's dropping out of drop, out of... Let me see if there's some injury news on him. Because Max Kepler is dropping from mixed league eligible to not. That's interesting.

I did not pick up on that. I would have thought he's still worth drafting. Left hip tightness? Oh, boy. Some sort of injury concerns, I guess. Sorry, what were you saying? You had some other names. Let's see. Yeah, well, I mentioned

Polanco again. Von Grissom. I want to stop on him for a moment because he's been sent down, so not surprising that he's dropping. He's still, in the past week, barely within the top 200, so I think there's some good long-sightedness

there. But what do you see for that situation orlando arcea is probably going to be filling the gap at second base in the short term but uh do you think this is just could be a situation where you know they just want grissom to get a good off to a good start in the minors and then he comes up quickly or do you think they i don't know so the the stated thing is a concern is a weak arm and poor defense. They've had as their shortstop, Dansby Swanson, who had

one of the weakest arms among starting shortstops in the big leagues over the last five years while he was in Atlanta. It can't just be the weak arm. It has to be weak arm plus some other issues. Is he going to fix those issues in two weeks in the minor leagues if he's had them for a while i don't see it so i i think brandon shoemake might be up before grissom to play shortstop so that means that grissom is someone

who could come up if they have an injury to ozzy albies would he come up if they have an injury to Ozzy Albies. Would he come up if there was an injury to Ahire Adrianza? I don't know because Adrianza is more of a backup. Would you call up Grissom to be a backup? So I think it would have to be like an injury to a starter like Ozzy Albies or possibly Eddie Rosario or Marcelo Zuna. I don't know that they play a lot of Grissom in the outfield, but that is a place that you corner outfield is a place you put someone

where you're like their bat and you're not sure about their defense. So I would say you'd be waiting on an injury to Eddie Rosario, Marcelo Zuna, or Ozzie Albies if you want Von Grissom to come up. Okay. Yeah. My apologies. I said second base, but of course the shortstop. And where is the big question? Yeah, but that's an interesting point that you bring up because I don't even know that you necessarily have to wait

for an injury to Rosario or Ozuna. I think maybe if they just get off to really bad starts for the first maybe three weeks or so, I think you could see Grissom come up. Yeah, that's interesting. The WC player stats for, let me see here. I want to see Rosario. Rosario, 176.

Ouch. I thought he was doing a little better with the eye surgery, but he's, I think, always a borderline major league starter, you know, because of certain flaws in his, in his, uh, approach.

Marcelo Zuna has only struck out 10 times in 45 plate appearances this spring, uh, and has a homer for it. Uh, they're playing him. He was batting fourth in the last lineup I saw. So if I was to guess at the starter, I would say Ozuna is a starter either at DH or in left field.

Rosario plays against righties. And Travis Darnot and or Sean Murphy steal some DH opportunities when Ozuna's in the field. I think that's what's going on. Yeah, it definitely seems plausible. Well, let's get to just a few other names of some big movers. Downward, Kenta Maeda not having the best spring, and so he's kind of sliding out of the 12th. That's weird. His stuff plus looks fine.

I think I, I think I would resist the urge to slide him too hard. Okay. Okay. Uh, do you get going back to the theme of, you know, spring training,

not being the normal, uh, situation, small samples and all that, uh, seven walks and two thirds for my ADA. That's, that's actually concerning because you're coming off a TJ surgery and there is a documented loss of fastball command coming off of TJ surgery.

Okay. So that, that part is concerning, I guess, but all right. I tend to think, give him some time and he'll iron that out, especially since he's such a breaking ball guy anyway.

All right. Uh, we mentioned before Oswald Peraza. So this is the, the flip side to the Volpe helium. He is falling out of the top 300. Yeah. How are you dealing with that situation in drafts? Are you targeting either? Neither? offensive profile. There's IKF there too. When I see a crowd like that and I don't trust that

the team is going to go the way I... I would want Anthony Volpe to start, but that doesn't mean that the Yankees will do it. You know what I mean? I used to in the past be like, oh, the teams will do what I would want. The Braves will just play Von Grissom at shortstop because I think

he's fine there. But teams don't do what you think they're going to do necessarily. So one guy that sticks out for me as perhaps falling too far is Chris Taylor. dropping out of the top 300 why is he dropping 40 points you know which you just said that Vargas is not having the the most amazing spring that that means there is an opportunity for an everyday job not even counting the fact that they need help at shortstop and they need help at center field you know well this is the the weird thing about this situation because yeah when when Lux went down with the injury probably one of the first things i thought from a fantasy perspective was you know well chris taylor exactly and i haven't drafted him anywhere and i just i that situation's gotten crowded again the dodgers always make a roster situated situation crowded yeah they do and so

i almost uh and they're almost a team to avoid because of it they're like the like raise raise relievers or something where it's just like yeah we're gonna figure it out you know chris taylor i did not notice this has 20 strikeouts and 48 spring at bats 48 spring of plate appearances that's kind of rough yeah that does not help what is that about geez well let's go to one other player at least here uh that i think definitely deserves mentioning that's brandon nimmo and again with injury news it's not too surprising uh he's dealing with an ankle and knee sprain which you know to me sounds like something that would keep him out beyond opening day but apparently he that's still in play.

He could still be on the roster and in the lineup for opening day. So is Nimmo dropping down to the nether reaches of the top 200 from the mid-hundreds? Is that an overreaction? No, I think it's about right you gotta you want to start camp with healthy people and and it is also a nod to the fact that nimmo has not been the healthiest guy you know it's not it's not like you know marcus simeon's a little sore and he still thinks he's gonna make opening day if i i wouldn't put those two pieces of news at the same level of of like interestingness yeah i would i was gonna say well isn't that sort of baked in but i guess this is the sort of thing that if you were on the fence about whether or not to take that flyer around 160 150 160 uh yeah it would definitely put me off for sure. He's still a guy that I look at in every draft

and he will be now that he's cheaper. So I guarantee in my main event that he will be somebody that I look at at some point and say, man, should we? Harrison Bader dropping for injury. There's a lot of injury stuff here. Joey vato just having a bad spring and i guess that's paired with injury um yeah it's an interesting group of players that's dropping it's uh there is a there is a for a part of this that also has to do with what i was saying earlier, but the pitchers. The flip side of going from draft and hold to more like 15-team fab sort of leagues

is that you'll get guys that you would only draft and draft and hold that you wouldn't draft in these other leagues, you know what I mean? That start showing up as droppers. What's a good example of that? I think a draft and hold player like Kyle um i think a draft and hold player like kyle isbell is a draft and hold player you know and he's dropping because he's not getting drafted as much because he's not going to get drafted in a 15 team league daniel vogelbach is a is that kind

of player you know uh where you're sort of depth depth in the the draft and hold. And then there's a bunch of guys who got sent down. Addison Barger, J.J. Blede, Vidal Brujan, guys like that. So Garrett Stone, who was a draft and hold guy for me, got sent down. Woo-hoo. But still plenty of opportunity in Washington. It's not a good team. Still plenty of opportunity. Yeah, yeah.

No, he had a great season in the minors last year. And if I recall correctly, he did okay when he came up with the Diamondbacks too. So, and those are all players are the ones that you mentioned. I mean, they were going kind of late to start with, so they've just really kind of fallen off the map, but the season and, you know, some of these players that, you know, have fallen. Maybe they they become targets for fab or beneficiaries of playing time beneficiaries of some of the recent injuries as well. So but we'll we'll save that discussion for Friday. So before we wrap up here, you know, any either kind of macro observations or any players that we should have mentioned that we haven't yet. Nope. Nope. It's the last weekend of drafting. Good luck out there. I'll see if I can get a pitching rank update out there for you by tomorrow.

Bold predictions tomorrow might be a fun read as you make your final preparations for the last weekend in drafting. And we'll also try to prepare those who have drafted for the first FAB run of the season, which might be this weekend for you. So it's kind of an awkward, it's awkward near the end. You know, it's awkward when you've got these young guys that's still in camp that are there, but no, they're not making the team like Jordan Westberg, I guess. And it's awkward when you've got to go back sometimes. You have to go back to your major league park for these like rivalry games.

So like the Giants are going to break camp and play the athletics next week, early in the week at home. But they might still do so with minor leaguers in the Major League Stadium. And it's awkward when you've drafted and you just want the season to start. But hopefully, if you missed my last announcement in New York, I'm going to be there on Thursday for an event at Other Half. The RSVPs are closed for the panel part, but come for the watch party. Drink my beer, staring into the shift, eat my sandwich, the knuckleball, and have a good time. And if you come near the panel, maybe

some RSVPs won't show up and you can get in. So please, I hope to see you there. All right. Will you be putting that information out on Twitter again or anywhere? Yeah, we put it on The Athletic. There's a piece about it on The Athletic if you want to see it. I've tweeted about it. I'm going to tweet about it again.

I'm about to reveal the label for my beer, which is awesome. Label reveal. All right all right so yeah be sure i'm sure you're already following you know but if not definitely be sure to uh hit that follow button now at you know saris i'm at al milk your bb i have no label reveals uh on my twitter just a warning and if you have questions for us hit us up there or or send an email to us at ratesandbarrels at gmail.com. Rates and Barrels all spelled out or put some questions down in the comments here on YouTube if you are watching here on YouTube. So with that said, we will be back on Friday with that fab discussion. So good luck in your drafts, everybody, and we'll see you next time. Thanks for listening.