Rates & Barrels - Adding Royce Lewis and Jordan Walker and Pitching Start/Sit Dilemmas

Episode Date: June 2, 2023

DVR and Al weigh their interest in adding Royce Lewis and Jordan Walker in shallower leagues and discuss their approaches to FAB bidding for AJ Smith-Shawver. They also gauge their interest in adding ...the Tigers’ Akil Baddoo and Zach McKinstry, as well as Reds righty Ben Lively and Braves southpaw Jared Shuster. DVR and Al conclude with some difficult two-start dilemmas and a few closer candidates to consider. Rundown 0:59 Top developments heading into the weekend 16:54 Hitters to consider 31:48 A few starting pitchers of interest 38:47 Start/sit dilemmas for two-start Hunter Greene and Nestor Cortes 45:40 Two-start pitchers 55:26 Closer corner Follow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiper Follow Al on Twitter: @almelchiorBB e-mail: ratesandbarrels@theathletic.com Subscribe to The Athletic at $2/month for the first year: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels Subscribe to the Rates & Barrels YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/c/RatesBarrels Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 So let's be clear. When it comes to shipping internationally, can I provide trade documents electronically? Mm-hmm. The answer is FedEx. Okay. But what about estimating duties and taxes on my shipments? How do I find all the... Also FedEx. Impressive. Is there a regulatory specialist I can ask about? FedEx. Oh. But let's say that... FedEx.
Starting point is 00:00:22 What? FedEx. Thanks. No more questions. Always your answer for international shipping. FedEx. What? FedEx. Thanks. No more questions. Always your answer for international shipping. FedEx, where now meets next. Welcome to Rates and Barrels. It's Friday, June 2nd. Derek Van Ryper here with Al Melchior. It's our weekend waiver preview show, digging into all the big stories from the week, promotions, players coming back from injuries, players getting hurt, opening the door for other players, all the things we usually talk about at the end of the week in hopes of getting you better prepared for the upcoming weekend in fab activity. And if your league doesn't use fab, hopefully the show is still fun to listen to because we don't actually talk that much about specific bids. Just give you some general guidelines here and there and hope the whole
Starting point is 00:01:19 process is really to learn more about making the right pickups on your own, what to bid and how to handle things. So that's our goal. Anyway, it's been our goal all season. We hope it's serving everyone well. Now let's start today with Royce Lewis. And if you play in a shallow league, there's a chance that Royce Lewis is still available. He's rostered in just under 70% of leagues on CBS, just coming back from his second ACL tear to begin this week. He's popped a couple of home runs already, did get one day off out of the first four games he could play. Not a surprise given the Twins' depth, given the magnitude of the injuries that he's come
Starting point is 00:01:57 back from. I think the question with Royce Lewis is if you're playing in a shallow league where he's still out there, an eight-team league or a 10-team league, does Royce Lewis have the skills and the role right now to be universally rostered? I think universally, and maybe DVR, I'm being a little bit nitpicky here, but I think that's a bit of a stretch. I know for maybe a lot of folks, if we were to say he should be rostered in all 12-team leagues,
Starting point is 00:02:24 that's pretty close to universal. But yeah, I think that's kind of where I'm at with Lewis. And I wouldn't necessarily recommend it in a 12 team league where you didn't have any bench space. So I think that you do have to wait to see if he is going to ratchet up to being a literal everyday player. I think you've got to see if maybe he gets some of the swing and miss out of the game as he plays more and more. So I think, you know, I eventually foresee him being somebody that you would start regularly in a 12-teamer, but that he might not be that right now. So if you've got room to stash him, then I think you can pick them just about anywhere. Yeah, I think one of the hardest things about forecasting Royce Lewis' 2023 is that because of the lost 2020 minor league season, the injury costing him all of 2021, there are two missing seasons. And when he came back last season, it was only 34 games at AAA where he was great across the board.
Starting point is 00:03:23 There was power. There was speed. He hit for average. He got on base, he drew walks, he didn't strike out that much, but it was a partial season. And even the amount of time we saw him spend at AA before the first ACL injury, that was only 33 games. So as much as you can dig into these tools and like a lot of what you see, the uncertainty comes from the swing and miss as you outlined. I think there is a case for him down to about a 10-team league right now. I think the willingness to play Kyle Farmer is going to wane as Kyle Farmer settles back into being more of that bench player that his skills suggest that he'll be. His skills suggest that he'll be. So I think health permitting, this is a good power speed combo with some average and OBP risk in the short term because of the layoffs, because of the lack of upper minor league track record, which is not his fault. It's all circumstances caused by injury and a canceled season that have really made this harder to figure out. But I am curious, as a bit of a toss up, how would you compare Jordan Lewis to Royce Lewis to Jordan Walker, who's now back up for the Cardinals?
Starting point is 00:04:28 Lars Neubauer is on the I.L. with that back injury that was slowing him down. Dylan Carlson on the I.L. currently working his way back. Tyler O'Neill at a standstill. So the previously crowded St. Louis outfield is not crowded right now. If you were choosing between Lewis and Walker at this moment, who would you actually prioritize as the better shallow league ad? I would actually prioritize Walker just because for the reasons that you just cited DVR,
Starting point is 00:04:55 that the playing time's there right now, there's not a lot of depth in the St. Louis outfield. Maybe that's going to change in the weeks to come. But right now that playing time is there. He's the same player that we were all really excited about back in March and didn't hit badly when he was up before. So we know he can handle major league pitching. So it's not any sort of disregarding of Lewis and the value that he can have over the longer haul. But right now,
Starting point is 00:05:23 I would certainly rather have Walker. You look at both players, power, speed, some swing and miss, a lot of growth potential. I think that's what makes it such a fair toss-up. I'm probably on the Lewis side of this one, believe it or not. It's a narrow difference. I would be interested in both in leagues where I had a need and both players were available. For me, it's that I think the Twins are going to commit more to Royce Lewis than the Cardinals are to Walker. I think once Carlson comes back, that could be enough to start playing the, is Jordan Walker doing enough? Is he costing us runs defensively?
Starting point is 00:05:55 There's a lot we don't know about how the Cardinals want to manage Jordan Walker that has made that situation more frustrating than it ought to be. By projection, they're very, very similar. Both expected to contribute in nearly every category, with that average category being the one potential drawback. Now, the big promotion of the week for a player that we haven't seen actually pitch in a game yet is A.J. Smith-Shawver getting the call to Atlanta.
Starting point is 00:06:20 He started this season at high A, and as it stands right now, he's supposed to work in a relief role. We've talked a lot about Bryce Elder and the success he's had this year, which has been a pleasant surprise for the Atlanta rotation. Jared Schuster is going to come up a little bit later in the show. We've seen Dylan Dodd in this rotation at times. They've had a lot of injuries. Max Freed's down right now. Kyle Wright's down right now. You can kind of talk yourself into the possibility that Smith Shauver pitches well enough in a relief role that he starts a few games in the near future.
Starting point is 00:06:50 But in terms of his short-term fantasy value, it's a really tough player to bid on. If you're a keeper or a dynasty league, sure. If he wasn't previously rostered, you're absolutely interested right now because the long-term future is extremely bright. But I'm having a difficult time discerning just how quickly Smith-Shawver could end up in a fantasy relevant role given how young he is and given how quickly he flew through the Atlanta system this year. Yeah. And the one thing that really got me especially excited about this call-up and got me really thinking about Smith-Shawar for 12-team leagues is the quotes from Brian Snitker and comparing his progress to Spencer Strider's and their plan for him to Spencer Strider's.
Starting point is 00:07:35 And whereas Spencer Strider didn't get called up until late in 2021, I mean, here we are beginning of June and Smith-Shawver's up with the big team. So he could have a couple of months to work into some multi-inning relief outings. And I think the biggest issue is that when everybody is healthy, that's just a lot of pitching depth. So they've got a pretty good rotation as it is right now.
Starting point is 00:08:01 And then they could be getting two very good starters back within a month or two. So that said i just think that given the the type of comp comp that that the organization themselves are making with smith chauver that there will be room for him in the rotation maybe it won't be till next year but i'm kind of reading between the lines and thinking maybe it's going to be later this year. Because they've done it also on the position player side, Michael Harris with very little experience at AA last year, Von Grissom. I mean, nothing's permanent about these moves, but it does seem like this is an organization that has opened its mind to the possibility that high-level
Starting point is 00:08:41 prospects can contribute sooner than expected. If there's a need, see if those guys internally can fill it. And I think if you do this now, you can learn a lot more about Smith-Shawver stuff against big league hitters before you reach the trade deadline. You can understand your own level of need come late July by running Smith-Shawver out there in this role now. And I think you have to look back at last season. If you,
Starting point is 00:09:04 if you've forgotten Spencer Strider didn't make his first start for the Braves last season until May 30th. So it was a full two-month run for him working in relief. We saw a lot of multi-inning outings, right? We saw some three and change. We saw a four-inning relief outing. It became clear over the course of those two months that Strider was not going to be long for the bullpen. So we're going to have a chance to see this for at least a little while before I assume they make a move. I think the only thing that I'm not sure about is do I want him on my roster right now? Is this worth burning a roster spot, a precious bench spot, hoping that within the next three or four weeks, maybe it can be a
Starting point is 00:09:44 little faster given the urgency that right now they've already got those two starters down that maybe they'll make this decision quicker. And since Smith-Shawver was already stretched out in the minors, it's not like they have to build him up. It's more just deciding if they like him better than their other backend options. A lot of unknowns, which leads me to a rare bidding question. In what types of redraft leagues are you trying to put Smith-Shavar on your roster? We've talked about the difficulty of finding quality starting pitching all season long. So it's possible that a multi-inning reliever who's not in a position to get saves is actually a good fantasy player if we can bank on four innings per week or five innings per week split over two appearances.
Starting point is 00:10:25 That could be enough, especially if there's win probability, which there is on a team that scores plenty of runs. If we think the skills are good, the ratios could be good. I'm really conflicted about this, and I think last night's run of our Maki League fab didn't help at all because a big splashy bid was thrown in there that basically eliminates Smith-Shaw versus keeper value and just ensures that he's a 2023 only player in that league specifically. But redraft leagues especially, is it 10, 15% of your budget, of your remaining
Starting point is 00:10:58 budget, not your original budget? If you're just looking for high quality innings and you're in a 15 team league where there are almost no starters available short of the guys that are coming off injuries or the guys who are just promoted. Yeah, it's a really tough one. But hopefully we can count on our league mates being a little down in their fab accounts. So especially after the Bobby Miller bidding a week ago. the Bobby Miller bidding a week ago. And I can't see going on the same level as a Bobby Miller, because I do think that in 15 team league, Smith-Shawver will have some value because if he is going to go out there,
Starting point is 00:11:30 maybe three innings at a time, at least on some, some nights with the ratios and strikeouts that that could be useful, but it's, it's hard to justify spending saying, you know, 15 or 20% of your total fab budget on somebody who maybe doesn't become a starter until August and maybe doesn't become a starter at all this year. So I'd keep
Starting point is 00:11:52 it more in the 10% range. And even that feels like a risk. Right. 10% of what's remaining. Most of my leagues, I've got about half of my fab already spent. So we're talking about 50 out of a thousand, something in that range feels about right. About 5% of your original budget is probably where I'd be at for deeper mixed leagues, more shallow formats, more of a wait-and-see for me, even though this is an exciting profile for someone that could end up with a lot of value in the future. You have to compare Smith-Shavar to someone like Reece Olsen. It's always a difficult exercise. The guy that has the real opportunity right now and someone who didn't put up great numbers at AAA so far this season, a 638 ERA, a 175 whip. What are we doing? Why would we even have any interest in Reese Olsen? Well, it's the underlying numbers that we've seen at other levels. It's the age to level performance overall. all. Last season, a 33.1% K rate, a 7.5% walk rate that was at AA Erie. We did see the walk rate tick up again at AAA this year, but the International League now using the automated balls and strike system, which has bumped walks up around the league. So you have to keep that in the analysis as well. Analyzing minor league stats right now is just so goofy because of all
Starting point is 00:13:01 the different rules and the pre-tack balls and different things happening in different places. Put all that aside, this is a good pitcher-friendly environment to pitch in. As far as your interest goes, are you more interested in Reese Olsen than A.J. Smith-Shavar in leagues where you're considering bidding on both this weekend? I can't think of one where I would be in one. And I think maybe to reframe it just a little bit, I can't conceive of the league where I would bid higher on Olsen than on Smith-Shavard. And some of that is, and I'm making that distinction because I think that Olsen has a chance to be more valuable rest of season than Smith-Shavard, but I know it's not going to take as high of a bid. And your Maki League is a great example. I don't think, and correct me if I'm wrong, DVR,
Starting point is 00:13:45 I don't think anybody got him in the FAB last night. I had a $2 contingent bid on him. Yeah, so that league has a strange requirement where you have to be on the big league roster when FAB runs to actually be eligible. So he wouldn't have been eligible to get picked up Thursday night, even though he's getting promoted prior to Friday's game.
Starting point is 00:14:05 It's a really goofy case. But with Olsen, we do get a look at him on Friday. It's a matchup against the White Sox. I think that Eduardo Rodriguez's finger injury is several weeks. I don't think that's going to be a quick return whatsoever. It's going to be a more schedule-dependent profile for me in the short term. a more schedule-dependent profile for me in the short term. You can blame the automated balls and strike system for some of that walk rate jump between AA and AAA,
Starting point is 00:14:31 but we've seen Resolson struggle with walks before. So there are some control concerns in the profile that predate what he has done this year. So when you start looking ahead, you say, okay, he's got the White Sox on Friday night, and let's hear in a first-come, first-served league. That's just a peek at what he can do. At Philly would be the next start if he stays in the rotation.
Starting point is 00:14:48 I'm not really thrilled about throwing a guy in his second big league start in that ballpark, even though that lineup has been reduced by the injuries they've dealt with this year. And then he's home against Atlanta for his start after that. So it's not a great runway for Reese Olsen as he begins his big league career. So that's probably going to temper my expectations and my bidding for him. I picked him up in an AL only league going into the weekend. And I think that's the short term line for me, unless I have the ability to stash him on my bench and kind of
Starting point is 00:15:21 wait and see what happens to these first couple of difficult matchups. Yeah. And so, yeah, there's the schedule. There's the team context. And I don't see putting any effort into getting him in anything that's shallower than 15-team right now, which, as we both agreed, that's not going to be the case with Smith-Schaufer. So I think it could get to that point. I'm hopeful for Earlson, especially if walks don't
Starting point is 00:15:47 look like they're going to be a problem for him. But as of right now, yeah, it's like a world of difference in terms of how much I think you would need to bid for him versus Smith Schaufer. I mentioned earlier in the show, one of the things that we are always looking for as we're searching for pitching are guys coming back from the IL. Players that had to be dropped when they were hurt. Some leagues don't have IL spots. Players that are out for more than a few weeks end up on the wire. Tristan McKenzie and Aaron Savali back in the mix
Starting point is 00:16:13 for the Guardians, Al. So this could be pretty big in places where they were actually dropped or it could at least create opportunities where other guys have to be dropped because they're back in leagues that have IL spots. Nevertheless, where are you at with McKenzie and Savali at this point as guys that could probably help in a decent number of leagues? Yeah, I think McKenzie is must-add. And when you're talking must-add, you're talking about pretty shallow leagues. A lot of
Starting point is 00:16:38 people wisely held on to him while he was on the IL. Savali, obviously, is going to be a little bit more available. He would be a must-add in any 15-teamer where he's available. For 12-team, not going to be bidding this weekend, but definitely got him on the watch list. I hold out hope that Savali will get back to the form that he showed the first couple of seasons. And it looked like in the first couple of starts he made this year, it looked like maybe he was on his way.
Starting point is 00:17:05 Yeah, it's funny. I'm looking at a lot of my 12 and 15 team leagues and they're not available. So it's, it's going to vary quite a bit from a league to league as far as whether you can actually pick either one of those guys up. But I would definitely be looking at both. If you happen to be in a league where they did hit the wire in the last few weeks.
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Starting point is 00:17:57 Remember, doing something is everything. Rent the Peloton Bike or Bike Plus today at onepeloton.ca slash bike slash rentals. All access membership separate. Terms apply. Let's get to a few bats to consider. Now, I picked up Owen Miller, I think it was last week, just because all I see is a guy that can play all over. He's a great glue player. The Brewers with Willie Adamas' injury, with Bryce Terang really struggling with the bat, with Luis Riaz still not back. They have playing time available on their infield.
Starting point is 00:18:31 Owen Miller has seized the opportunity. As we look at him again, similar question that we talked about at the beginning of the show, where are the thresholds for rostership? How good is Owen Miller really? And what other types of leagues do you think he could be useful beyond the 15-team leagues where people have been scooping him up now for the last couple of weeks? Well, in the waiver column this week, I did recommend making a small bid for Miller in 12-team leagues. And I don't normally think of him as a player of that caliber, but the Brewers do have a really nice schedule coming up. So you figure, even if you're concerned about regression, even if you're concerned about playing time, once the Brewers get their full compliment back,
Starting point is 00:19:11 which, which might not be long from now, they start off the, the, the week with a final game in Cincinnati in a series with the Reds. They've got a three game series at home against the Orioles. No starters there that the Orioles are going to be sending out that would really deter you from playing Miller. And then
Starting point is 00:19:31 they've got a three-game home set against Oakland. So really, really nice matchups, great venues for all seven games. And I don't think that playing in Milwaukee necessarily makes Owen Miller a power threat, but maybe enough at least for the coming week to kind of get him over the hump and get him onto your active roster in a 12-teamer. But I think the playing time will continue to be there for him after this week, but I do think of him as kind of a stream-and-ditch kind of guy for 12-teamers. I think that's totally fair. When you take a look at some of the underlying numbers, it's not an impressive barrel rate, 5.5% so far this season. It's not the case that he's hitting the ball hard, but not lifting it. It's a 30.3% hard hit rate
Starting point is 00:20:15 overall. So that's light. The good news is he doesn't strike out a lot. He's kept that number under 15%. So I see a guy that probably is going to spray the ball around a little bit, hit the occasional home run, and maybe deliver more of his value with his legs. He's in the 86th percentile in sprint speed, and the Brewers are one of those teams. That offense can run very hot and cold. I think they're willing to let guys have green lights, and if Miller keeps playing, I think that may end up being the category where he offers the most value. It might be speed and average and some runs scored over home runs and RBIs from him going forward, even though he's been delivering really across the board through his first 137 plate appearances. Yeah, I would expect more contributions going forward in the runs scored in the batting average category.
Starting point is 00:21:02 But again, depending on what your categorical needs, that may be enough to even keep him rostered beyond this coming week. So I just think worst case scenario is he's somebody that could help you even just for the coming week. Now you might remember a couple of seasons ago, Akil Badu was actually a nice surprise at Detroit,
Starting point is 00:21:19 a rule five pick that after a lengthy absence due to injury, made the leap from high to the big leagues, was showing a little bit of power, picked up 18 steals as a 22-year-old rookie for the Tigers in 2021. Last year was an up and down season when he was with the Tigers. It just was far from the same. The K rate ticked up a little bit. We saw the barrel rate get slashed more than in half.
Starting point is 00:21:42 But this year, he's starting to make some more hard contact and just maybe is going to carve out a large side platoon role again. So I'm curious if you are back in on Akil Badu and if you think something similar to what we saw in 2021 is actually a fair expectation for him again. I think it is. And in terms of being back in on Bidu, I think I am kind of back to where I was two years ago, which was looking at the free agent pool and thinking, okay, is Bidu somebody that could help me in a 12-teamer for the coming week, a power-speed combination? And that power part of it is back,
Starting point is 00:22:19 at least for the month of May. So from April, it just looked like it was just a continuation of 2022. Like maybe 2021 was just a total fluke, but then over the last month added a few ticks onto his exit velocity on flies and liners, cut his strikeout rate in half, literally. I don't necessarily expect that that's going to be exactly the player that we'll see for the last four months of the season, but it gives me optimism given that that profiles a lot closer to what we saw in 2021.
Starting point is 00:22:50 So he's certainly back on my radar for 12 teamers and definitely want to add him. I know he's available in at least one of my 15 teamers, and I'll definitely be bidding on him there. You got to be mindful of the schedule with Bidu. I think he'll frequently, or if not frequently, always possibly sit against lefties. There's one lefty currently lined up for the Tigers on the schedule for their two series in the upcoming week, and I think just one in their seven-game week the week after. So not bad as far as the upcoming schedule goes. Be sure to take advantage of that. Probably similar to Owen Miller for me as far as being a little more of a streamer than someone that I expect to be an absolute fixture on my roster going forward. There's another player in Detroit who's become a popular ad in a lot of leagues over the last couple of weeks. It's Zach McKinstry. And I think you put in our show notes the most added player on CBS in the last 24 hours.
Starting point is 00:23:40 So definitely someone that is drawing interest. Another versatile, plays allover sort of player. The thing that's really surprised me with Zach McKinstry, Al, is that he's stealing bases. And a quick glance at the sprint speed sort of supports it. You're like, okay, yeah, 83rd percentile runner, sure, why wouldn't he do that? It's just strange that we didn't see Zach McKinstry steal a ton of bases throughout his time in the minor leagues. That's just not really been a huge part of his game as someone who's tried to break through in the big leagues for a few seasons now. So he's getting an opportunity for the Tigers.
Starting point is 00:24:11 This is a good profile to take a chance on when you're in that middle of a rebuild phase because he plays all over, seems like a pretty decent defender at a couple of those spots, takes pretty good plate appearances, and actually has some intriguing tools so i guess a simple would you rather have for the rest of the season zach mckinstry or akil badu if you're choosing between the two tigers that are still out there in some leagues i think uh a slight edge to mckinstry actually uh just because i do have
Starting point is 00:24:42 just a little bit of worry still about badu that he's got that one really good month that he just put together. And you can be an optimist and say, okay, well, that kind of matches up with the track record from his rookie season. But, I mean, McKinstry's been good for a while now this season for the Tigers. And he's been leading off. I mean, he too is a risk to sit against lefties. But in that leadoff spot, he can definitely help you with runs. He can help you with batting average or OBP. The steals seem to be legit. So it's kind of a close call, but I'd rather have McKinstry and plus a little bit more position flexibility too
Starting point is 00:25:22 with McKinstry. So I think that gives him a little bit of an edge. Yeah, I think the quality of the contact that Zach McKinstry is making this season gives me a little more confidence in him than Badu. I love that both of those guys control the strike zone really well. I think if you're just looking for high floor guys that can do a few different things that help you, they both tick a lot of the boxes. But we're seeing Zach McKinstry show some improvement
Starting point is 00:25:44 in terms of his O-swing percentage. He's always had that good balance of low K rate with high walk rates everywhere he's been. He was stuck in the Dodgers system for a long time. So you think about where you can be blocked in the minor leagues and not have an opportunity to play. It, to me, is a good sign that he was in a good organization versus someone like a Frank Schwindel or some of those players that have bounced around multiple organizations and didn't get that opportunity, at least McKinstry was stuck on a really good depth chart. You can kind of look at that and say, yeah, that's a tough lineup to break through. And it's not necessarily his fault.
Starting point is 00:26:18 So I don't know if we're getting 10 steals every 40 games the rest of the way from Zach McKinstry, but I do like a lot of the things he's doing right now. And he was someone I previously overlooked when he was available in deeper leagues. But I think he's made a strong case for some shallow league additions as well. Nolan Jones is up for the Rockies right now. Do you trust the Rockies to play Nolan Jones enough for us to get a really good look at him at the big league level and with the benefit of Coors Field for his home games. Yeah, I was definitely worried about that when they called him up, but so far so good.
Starting point is 00:26:50 They basically plugged him in as the replacement for CJ Krohn at first base and can play a little bit of outfield. So I'm not too worried about that in the short term, but with the Rockies, you never can be quite sure. but with the Rockies, you never can be quite sure. And I'd say probably the bigger concern that I have about Jones, and pretty much for me disqualifies him for shallow leagues, unless maybe it's really, really good matchups, is that I just cannot see starting him away from Coors. I don't think he's got a ton of power,
Starting point is 00:27:21 but I think that the gap power will play really well at Coors and could maybe translate into some home runs there as well. But I think, yeah, he'll hit for average. You'll see some extra bases in those home series, but on the road, I'm not sure there's much there to offer. I think it's, for me, it's raw power that works everywhere, but it comes with swing and miss. You're going to take some lumps in batting average if you are playing him on the road. And then I'm also curious to see how much exposure he will get to lefties. They have a more lefty heavy schedule coming up. So if you are thinking about Nolan Jones, be mindful of the fact that the Rockies will see three left-handed starters out of the six they face in the upcoming week. You go a little further beyond that, things could be different the week after that, depending
Starting point is 00:28:03 on the health of Chris Sale and a few other factors. But just think about him mostly as a home streamer at this point, because it's clear the Rockies are not as committed to Nolan Jones yet as we might like them to be based on some of the raw tools. Surprising, of course, since they sought him out and traded for him, but then decided to go sign Jerickson Profar, which I will never understand. It will never make sense to me. Can't explain it.
Starting point is 00:28:28 Ryan Noda still out there in a good number of leagues. Al, another player that has interesting tools, does come with some swing and miss. Plenty of opportunity in Oakland. Recurring theme throughout this cast on the year, really. Are you interested in Noda in situations where you, you know, like Nolan Jones versus Noda is kind of a toss up based on skills. But I feel like Noda's playing time is a little safer and at least dealing with a crappy home park. You know, it's like he's got the raw power to deal with that. And he's not going to have the same road problems that Nolan Jones does going in and out of course.
Starting point is 00:29:04 So I think if I'm looking at both, maybe the edge goes to Noda. I don't even think it's really close. I think you just made the case right now. You don't have to worry about streaming based on home road splits. I just think there's more of a long-term role there for him this season with the A's than necessarily for Jones. We both expressed some concern about how deep is the Rockies commitment to Jones.
Starting point is 00:29:29 Yeah. So I think it's a pretty decided advantage. I don't think either one is really somebody I'm looking at in 12 teamers. Like I said, maybe and this would be more likely for Jones actually than for Noda, but if there were just really good matchups and venues, maybe I would look at Noda. But he's, as you mentioned, there's a lot of power there,
Starting point is 00:29:51 but comes at the expense of a lot of swing and miss. So, you know, you can't really expect a batting average help from him. But even though he hits in the Oakland lineup, and I'd be inclined to discount any sort of run production potential from him. He's got 28 runs scored, having made 183 appearances so far. So he's on about an 80-run pace, hitting second for Oakland. That's pretty good and a little surprising. Gets on base a ton, and I think Oakland's offense offense while it's making its way toward the bottom of
Starting point is 00:30:25 the league isn't as bad as people thought it was going to be going to the season at least not as bad as i thought it was going to be notice walk rates are just absurd 19.1 on the season a real three true outcomes player offers a little bit of speed on the bottom two he was 20 for 24 as a base dealer at triple a last year just two for three so far this year, but can run a little bit, can get on base enough to maybe use that speed, and the power's legit. Barrel's a ton of balls, so there are worse players that teams like Oakland could take a chance on, so I like that he's playing. I think the PT floor is a little safer than Jones, and the upcoming schedule also has fewer lefties on it by comparison, so I do think Noda has a little more streaming appeal
Starting point is 00:31:03 right now than Nolan Jones does in leagues where they're still available. Ellie De La Cruz for redraft leagues. I mean, he's becoming difficult to find now. He's quickly being scooped up in places with the assumption that he's going to get a chance in Cincinnati sooner rather than later. Yeah. I'm not sure how much longer of a wait there can be. It's maybe shades of a Pasquantino watch from 2022. And the day did eventually come and, and those who waited or spent the money pretty much paid off last year. So yeah, I think,
Starting point is 00:31:38 you know, the ceiling is even higher for De La Cruz and the, just the issue is, can you still get them into 12 teamer because already his roster rates are are pretty high but if you are in a league where you have any room to stash and i think this is now the third player dvr that we've talked about like yeah the 12 teamer if you got room to stash go ahead and stash so you're gonna have to make some tough decisions but i don't think there's any question that uh you have to move on de la cruz now or risk missing
Starting point is 00:32:02 out missing out altogether right and i think if I think if you're considering a bench spot that you are just using for the what could go right, then Eli De La Cruz, wherever available, sure, that makes the most sense. There's power, there's speed, ridiculous tools. It's been discussed a ton. The improvement over the course of May in terms of the strikeout rate is really encouraging to see, although he did just have an 0 for 5 with 5Ks on Thursday. So it's give a little, you know, take a little. It's up and down still. Look, Elie de la Cruz, when he comes up, he's probably going to strike out 30% of the time at first. That's fine. He's young for the level everywhere he's played. The tools are worth it. As long as he hits the ball hard when he connects and offers up that speed, gets the occasional walk, he's going to be fine. So I hope
Starting point is 00:32:49 we're all right, and I hope he's up sooner rather than later. I do think the ceiling is high enough to justify stashing him in a shallow league if, and this is a huge if, if your roster is healthy enough for you to get away with it. Let's move on to some other starting pitchers of note. Chris Sale has a sore shoulder. Who do you think the Red Sox will turn to? And does that player have any appeal to us as someone who might be available in a decent number of leagues?
Starting point is 00:33:18 Well, who I think the Red Sox will turn to and who I want them to turn to are two different answers. So on roster resource, they've got Corey Kluber in there. I think that's probably the right answer, but I would much rather see Cutter Crawford, but he's not that stretched out now having been in the bullpen for several weeks. Josh Winkoski has been pretty good out of the pen too. So I would actually prefer to see either one of them get stretched out. And I actually think
Starting point is 00:33:46 that would probably make the most sense, but I'm not sure that I would expect to see either of those things happen. Yeah. Crawford has been pretty good though in the relief role so far this season. You look at his pitch counts, I think he got up to 72 pitches was the season high way back on April 17th. A lot of 20s, 30s, and 40s the last few times out. So it would take probably two or three weeks for him to get stretched back out like a starter again if they were going to build him up progressively. I'd like to see it. I mean, five strikeouts for every one walk. Why not? Why not take that chance? Cutter Crawford might be the kind of player that if you are in a very deep keeper or
Starting point is 00:34:25 dynasty league and you're not really contending for this season, you're just looking for the what could go right players, he might be someone to try to pick up now at basically no cost, throw him on your bench, throw him in as your last pitcher, and just see if he gets a chance to start in the second half. Because if he pitches well in an expanded role at some point, maybe he could pitch his way into the team's plans for the future, even if he's not getting that chance right now. I think you're probably right as far as Corey Kluber being the most likely pitcher to get that opportunity.
Starting point is 00:34:52 Kluber just seems kind of broken. The curveball still grades out really well in Eno's model. I think that's always going to be a pitch that works for him. It's going to come down to whether Kluber can turn into the late career version of Adam Wainwright or a right-handed version of Rich Hill and just sort of maximize the usage of that and have it work. But even with those guys, we've seen a ton of variance despite the success they've had for longer stretches of their career. So I think that would make Kluber a very matchup-dependent starter.
Starting point is 00:35:20 I think people have mostly given up on him, though, because the K rate's been down going back to last season. The walk rate is up again, just like it was in that 2021 season with the Yankees. And he's got a home run problem right now, too. So damaged pitchers as far as ratios and underlying skills are what we're left to sift through in some deeper leagues. Are you taking that chance on Kluber if we do get word that he, in fact, gets the opportunity? Or are you letting him play it out on someone else's roster? Definitely letting him play it out on somebody else's roster because I just haven't seen the evidence so far this year that he's going to be the sort of pitcher that you were just making a comp for. That he could be Adam Wainwright last year's version or Rich Hill, who's still doing it, still being fantasy relevant in 2023. Haven't really seen that this year from Kluber, so I'll wait it out. Yeah, we'll wait and see what the MRI reveals from Chris Sale's shoulder. But the velo dip before he walked off the mound on Thursday is a bit ominous, especially given the amount of time he has missed in recent years.
Starting point is 00:36:25 A few other names that made the sheet for today, two guys that I have not had any interest in so far because I just don't trust it at all. If you made me pick one, I think there's an easy choice based on team context, but Ben Lively and Jared Schuster. Can you make a case to pick up Ben Lively or Jared Schuster?
Starting point is 00:36:43 Is there anything you'd like in their profiles that makes you believe that they can actually provide at least some short-term value for us where we're chasing pitching? Well, I actually made a case for both of them in this week's column. And to start with Lively, he's had a bit of a change in the pitch mix back from his days with the Phillies, which is now six years years ago, uh, but throwing, throw the slider more and, and, uh, not surprisingly seeing a lot more, uh, swing and miss. And it's, again, it's been pretty good, uh, pretty good indicators so far. And, you know, granted a pretty, uh, limited number of innings, just 22 and two thirds innings with the reds. There's obviously
Starting point is 00:37:21 concern with, uh, any home start that, that that Lively would make, as would be the case for most starters at Great American Ballpark, but pretty good ratio so far. I'm not buying the 199 ERA, but you don't have to. The XFIP is in the low threes. I think the Sierra is in the mid threes. So yeah, I think that what he's done in that limited number of innings is, is more impressive than what you would see for a lot of pitchers, certainly on your 15 team waiver wire this weekend. Yeah. You're really, really in a difficult spot though.
Starting point is 00:37:57 And you don't feel good about the home starts. So you look at the upcoming schedule. He's got a road trip to St. Louis. That'll be one week from today. If the current schedule holds at a road start in Kansas City. So it could be some short-term streaming that actually makes Ben Lively viable. I would just be very careful about him at home. Interesting that they have changed that mix as much as they have though. And once upon a time, he was a
Starting point is 00:38:19 pitching prospect that was a little bit excited about. It was really a long time ago and very short-lived, of course, were his opportunities in the big leagues previously. But getting that opportunity once again in Cincinnati, Jared Schuster, I mean, it's just the team context, right? It's believing that the run support will be there, that maybe they'll turn to that deep bullpen and let the bullpen rack up the last 12 outs and maybe you can steal some wins. That's to me, the extent of the appeal for Jared Schuster. Is there something there that I might be overlooking? Well, I just think he's been better since coming back from Gwinnett.
Starting point is 00:38:50 He's, he's been decent. So I think maybe more of like a points league guy where you, you hope for the quality starter, the win, and he's not going to help you a whole lot with strikeouts. So definitely, I think less Roto appeal than in,
Starting point is 00:39:04 in points. But even in Roto, as you were saying, I think you could rely on him to at least be a decent source of wins. And I think once we get to that point with the Braves rotation that we were talking about earlier in the show, where you're going to have much more of a crunch, I could definitely see Schuster being an odd man out. But last, I think it's four starts he's made since coming back from Gwinnett. He's been fine. holds the week after that. So that's a pretty good schedule. It's a little bit like the Ben Lively situation where you might say, yeah, I'm not crazy about this profile long-term, but short-term this might work. And that might be some inexpensive roster glue that can get you through a couple of weeks before other starters emerge or other guys come back from your IL if you're dealing with some injuries at the present time. You've always wanted to be part of something bigger than yourself. You live for experience and lead by example. You want the most out of life and realize what you're looking for is already in you. This is for you.
Starting point is 00:40:26 The Canadian Armed Forces. A message from the Government of Canada. Best Western made booking our family beach vacation a breeze. And it felt a little like... life's a trip make the most of it at best western let's get to some streamers and two-start pitchers. You wanted to bring this one up. Hunter Green this week has the Dodgers and then at the Cardinals as a lineup decision. Are you actually using Hunter Green this week? This is such a tough one because he's just about universally rostered. His start rate, I looked on CBS, is I think somewhere around 60%, 65%. So that's a dilemma with Hunter Green is that when somebody is that highly rostered, you figure, okay, they've got a two-start week.
Starting point is 00:41:32 You've got to use them, right? And yet his home road splits are kind of what you would think they might be. He really struggles in Cincinnati, struggles with the long ball. And he's got a terrible matchup there this coming week. So that's a very long-winded way of getting to know. I don't think I would start Hunter Green as a two-start pitcher this week, and it just feels sort of uncomfortable to say because, again, somebody of his caliber, why are you rostering him
Starting point is 00:42:00 if he's not an automatic start for a two-start week? But unless you can split it up, that's a tough one to swallow. I think I'm in, even though I know there's a lot of risk. I think this is what drives the decision for me. When you're looking at difficult matchups, Hunter Green's strikeout floor is absurdly high, right? So even if you're expecting three earned runs in each of the two starts, just as your baseline expectation, and maybe a combined 10 innings and change or 11 innings. So maybe you take a little bit of ERA damage,
Starting point is 00:42:38 but it's relatively small compared to what the league is doing as a whole right now. If you're going to give Hunter Green 10 or 11 innings, you're probably getting 12 plus strikeouts. That's huge for the week. And I think they could at least win the game against St. Louis. I mean, they could obviously win the game against the Dodgers too. So your win expectation is still probably close to one win because it's two starts from a guy that misses a ton of bats that should be able to navigate even a difficult lineup. The park is always scary, but I do think where the K floor is with Hunter Green is so uniquely high that I'm willing to take on more risk with him than I would be if he was striking out
Starting point is 00:43:17 eight batters per nine. Even if we're talking about someone who maybe had better control or a lower home run rate, I think Ks are so important in our leagues that the risk-reward actually makes sense to me in this instance, even though it is very risky and it is worth thinking about. Maybe it depends on who that replacement option is. I feel like in most of my leagues, I don't like my first pitcher off the bench nearly enough to pass on two turns from Hunter Green, even if one of those is a very difficult one at Great American Ballpark. Yeah, this is a situation, and I brought it up in part because it is complex, right? So I think the format matters. Your alternatives clearly do matter.
Starting point is 00:43:53 And I think that to kind of put the negative spin on what you just said, DVR, that if you do have a deep bench, then maybe it's easier to afford not taking the risk with Hunter Green. And I really want to make the point, because you make an excellent point about starting him in Roto and just kind of holding your nose for the potential ERA damage for getting the strikeouts and maybe a couple of wins. I think it's a much riskier situation in head-to-head,
Starting point is 00:44:20 because I think you've got a real chance of emerging from the week with a negative. Yeah, I don't think enough about the head-to-head weekly formats, but that's an interesting point to put out there for people playing in leagues like that. I think Nestor Cortez provides the perfect, this is the guy I'd probably be more inclined to sit. If I was choosing between the two, maybe I only wanted to use one. I would trust Hunter Green more, home against the Dodgers, road against the Cardinals than I would trust Nestor Cortez home
Starting point is 00:44:48 twice against the White Sox and Red Sox because Nestor Cortez has that lower strikeout floor by comparison, right? He's right in that range, right about a strikeout per inning, 23.4% in the season. Got a little bit of a home run problem. We know Yankee Stadium is not going to help him in that regard.
Starting point is 00:45:04 That's kind of where I think the risk and reward are a little askew for me. And I'd be more inclined to sit Nestor Cortez if I had a viable alternative. I might not. I might have to use him too. But I think it's a good counterexample to a pitcher I generally like who has a two-start week, but might be too risky depending on other circumstances. who has a two-start week, but might be too risky depending on other circumstances. Yeah. Now I'm inclined to agree with you on Cortez. The Red Sox matchup definitely does scare me. The White Sox, I feel like he could kind of get away with that, maybe Yankee Stadium, but I think best case scenario, you're looking at an equal level of risk. And then as you point out, the strikeout floors is much lower for Cortez.
Starting point is 00:45:46 So overall, I'd have to agree with you that I'd rank green ahead of him. And I almost included Alec Manoa in this rundown because it's a similar thing. He's got a two-start week coming up and somebody who's widely rostered,
Starting point is 00:46:01 but there's enough risk there. You think, okay, well, do I take double the risk then in a two-start week? And so I think I actually would rank them Green and then Cortez and then Manoa, where it's an absolute clear no for Manoa. And I'm just riding it out with him on the bench until hopefully he straightens things out and I don't have to cut him. Yeah. I think that's going to be the question people are asking as manoa starts to pop up on more waiver wires do you want to take the chance on him fixing this in season and then when is he in your lineup and when is he on your bench i'd be very careful with manoa right now those are not easy matchups i'm with you on the order
Starting point is 00:46:39 for ranking them we're just not seeing progress right now two k's last time out three walks just two earned runs over three on three hits over four innings took me 89 pitches to get 12 outs against the pretty banged up brewers lineup that should be a layup sort of matchup if you're a good pitcher so i'm i'm very concerned about manoa i was not nearly as worried about him back in april as i probably should have been. I wanted to give him the benefit of the doubt. I thought we should take the last 50 starts prior to this season, carry them with the appropriate weight, and maybe I carried that for a little bit too long. So I don't know how they're going to fix them, but you look at a guy that has a 48 to 41 strikeout to walk ratio on the season now in 57 and two-thirds innings. If you didn't have the
Starting point is 00:47:24 previous track record, you wouldn't let that picture into your lineup for a two-start week against the Astros and Twins, no less. Yeah. Well, you probably would have cut that picture weeks ago. Right. So some of this is just being too stuck on what I was previously stuck on. I think I'm getting comfortable with the idea of dropping him in 10 and 12 team
Starting point is 00:47:44 leagues where I previously wasn't. Other people got there sooner and they were right. So I'm finally there with Alec Manoa being too risky to hold in those really shallow leagues right now if you have to go out and get quality innings somewhere else. Lots of options to think about. We talked about James Paxton and I think we were skeptical prior to that first start, just not knowing how good the stuff was. And everything looked really crisp in terms of the velo. I'm more in on Paxton right now than out for weeks going forward. I think he has some shallow league streaming appeal at Cleveland and at the Yankees.
Starting point is 00:48:17 It's kind of like, here's your layup and then here's your really tough test. And I'm more in than out on Paxton's skills. So I'd probably play him in a spot like that. And there's Braxton Garrett, who's really been pitching well and has a really nice first matchup home against the Royals, a slightly more difficult second one, having to go on the road to face the White Sox. But has Braxton Garrett really kind of changed your assessment of him with what he's done over this past month or so? Maybe a little bit, but I feel like I've been one of the highest guys probably on Garrett coming into 2023.
Starting point is 00:48:50 So there wasn't maybe a lot of room for me to raise my expectations even more. But in fact, I think he's done that. So I picked him up in 12 team leagues, I don't know, a few weeks ago, maybe even a month ago. And so to me, this is just a, it's a layup. And I think he's an important player to include here because his roster rate still is
Starting point is 00:49:10 that high. I think it's just still that one terrible start against Atlanta that has brought all of his numbers down. Not, you know, not in the good way, but, you know, brought the ERA and whip up. And aside from that start, he's been better than fine. So with the two start and especially two start like this, I feel like he should be close to universally rostered. He probably won't be. Yeah. The tricky thing about that start, it was a home start against Atlanta. So there may have been some temptation in deeper leagues to roll the dice on it too. So you may have absorbed that at the time and then he might have an impossible cut, but he's pitched really well, at least five innings, each of his last five starts, racking up some decent K totals along the way to maybe taking
Starting point is 00:49:54 advantage of a couple of softer landing spots, but he did get the Rockies at Coors and lived to tell the tale. So I would say we're seeing really an extension of the success Garrett was having last season. The only thing that I'm kind of puzzled by is he's lost some velo and he's still getting similar results. But I wonder if this is kind of what a league average starter looks like and one that pitches in a pitcher-friendly environment. So you end up using him more often than not because the skills end up getting a boost from the park that he plays in. Yeah. And despite the lesser velo,s, missing a lot of bats. So I'm not exactly sure why, but I trust the results since we saw similar ones last year.
Starting point is 00:50:33 What are you doing with Hayden Wesneski? He is back as the result of Justin Steele's injury, which was probably a narrow miss for me as far as the most newsworthy things of the week. Justin Steele, we sort of broke him down maybe a week or so ago on the pod because he was pitching really well to begin this year. It goes back to the second half of last year. The good news is the forearm injury is not considered serious. He was supposed to have an MRI on Thursday, and I don't think the results have been revealed just yet, but certainly things are trending in the right direction. But Wisniewski came up and worked out of the bullpen.
Starting point is 00:51:09 Looks like he's going to get at least a little opportunity here to fill in in this Cubs rotation. It's at the Angels and at the Giants, two teams that are dangerous enough that you don't necessarily want to mess with them with low-end pitchers. Wisniewski was someone I really liked at the end of last season. He's had all sorts of issues. Posing hitters have just clobbered his fastball so far this year. Any interest in Wisniewski as a deep league pitcher that might be able to help you or those matchups both being on the road especially scare you away? They scare me away.
Starting point is 00:51:41 And as far as the longer- term outlook for Wisniewski, because that Steele injury right now doesn't look like it's that serious, this could be a very short-term thing for him in the rotation. So if it looked worse for Steele, I might at least make some attempt to try to stash Wisniewski and see if he's better this time around than he was earlier in the rotation. But strangely enough, me a week ago would not believe that me today is saying this. I'm more interested in Kyle Hendricks right now than I am Hayden Wisniewski.
Starting point is 00:52:16 They've got the same two-step this week. I think it's the same matchups for both of them. Let me check that because I don't know. That's wrong because Hendricks gets the gets the Padres in San Diego not that that's necessarily any kind of upgrade over the Angels in Anaheim but Hendricks is he's not been great in his first two starts but I think he's closer to the guy he was three seasons ago then I expected him to be This one's always been tough for me. Kyle Hendricks, because it's such a unique profile. It's low velocity, right? It's a high 80s fastball that he throws kind of a lot. It's basically fastball changeup, occasional curve. I really like the idea
Starting point is 00:52:58 of him throwing the curve more than he's been throwing it so far. So that gives me some pause. The Velo, it is up half a tick from where it was last year, but he works with so little Velo anyway. It's like, I don't know if that's really the answer. I just think that the control has to be so good for him. And it hasn't been. And it hasn't been that I really, I'd rather let someone else take the risk and be right
Starting point is 00:53:24 than take the risk myself and be wrong here. I don't want to get caught chasing what was really a great run from Kyle Hendricks for half a decade. Is that fair to say? Yeah, no, definitely five, solid five-year run. He was really effective from 2015 through 2019. I don't want to get caught chasing that in his mid-30s. He's 33 now, I guess early 30s, because it worked so well for so long. I think he's really dependent on matchup. And Wisniewski, it's like, just change your pitch mix, dude. There's stuff there that should work.
Starting point is 00:54:01 Wisniewski should be better than Hendricks at this stage. And I also don't know how committed the Cubs are to Wisneski when they get healthier in the rotation again. So maybe you're right that Hendricks has more job security and that ultimately plays for us. But I think these are both really risky profiles to take a chance on right now, given their respective flaws. Yeah, I can't disagree with that. I just think if I'm going to throw a dollar at somebody for two starts this week, it's going to be Hendricks and not Wisniewski. You said you want to make a case for Tommy Henry on the pod today? I mean, the matchups are really nice at the Nationals and at the Tigers. Is this a pure matchups play or have you seen something else that you think could be good with Henry. I see one other thing, and I wrote about this too. So yeah, it's interesting to me because we have a conversation that seems every week DVR about like, here's this pitcher that we've never had any interest in, who's got these incredible matchups, what side wins out here. And for me, the matchups, that's what wins it out for me with Tommy Henry. And the one other thing
Starting point is 00:55:03 that I kind of liked there, he's actually been one of the best pitchers in the majors so far this year at avoiding hard fly ball and line drive contact. Now, it hasn't really translated into anything at all in his statistics. It's not like he's been great at avoiding home runs, but I think with these matchups and with the consistency that he's had with not getting hit hard on flies and liners. I don't,
Starting point is 00:55:27 well, I shouldn't say I don't see how it could go wrong. It could definitely go wrong, but I think it could get actually could go very right. Yeah. I think Tommy Henry is still the kind of guy that if I'm playing a daily lineup, he pops for me as something that I'm stacking against,
Starting point is 00:55:43 even though the results have been good 373 era 124 whip through 41 innings that's all fine and i think i could also look at the underlying numbers and say well you should probably strike more guys i just get 11.1 swing strike rate why is he only striking out 5.4 batters per nine that doesn't quite make sense to me either i like the diamondbacks as a team that can provide a little run support for them and give them chances to win. So I could see it in a 15-team league, but I'm nervous about it. Okay, if you're going back to the earlier options, right? If I'm sitting right now and I'm saying, oh, Hunter Green, a little worried about his matchups, or Nestor Cortez, a little worried about his matchups,
Starting point is 00:56:21 I could pick up Tommy Henry fairly cheap and throw him in instead. Cortez, a little worried about his matchups. I could pick up Tommy Henry, fairly cheap, and throw him in instead. I would use both Green or Cortez ahead of Tommy Henry, even though those matchups for Tommy Henry are good. Even with these matchups, he doesn't jump into a conversation where I'm sitting someone who has tough matchups and better skills. I'm not nearly there yet, but I think for the deepest of leagues, he's probably a little better than we've been giving him credit for, and I wouldn't be surprised if that K rate started to tick up a little bit. Yeah. And something maybe I wasn't clear enough about earlier when I was talking about Green and Cortez, that was within the context of 12-team leagues. I don't see that you're going to likely have better options in
Starting point is 00:56:57 your 15-teamers for either of those pitchers. And Tommy Henry does not qualify as a better option in those leagues. So I did, just to kind of contextualize the case, quote unquote, that I'm making for Henry. I did put a $1 contingent bid on him last night in Maki, but I got Ben Lively and said, so somebody else got Tommy Henry for a dollar. And I would have been fine either way. I had a contingency bid on him too.
Starting point is 00:57:21 I thought for a buck, there could be one good start in there and it might be worth it, but he was going to be a pitch and ditch guy for me for sure. I had a contingency bid on him too. I thought for a buck there could be one good start in there and it might be worth it, but he was going to be a pitch and ditch guy for me for sure. So be careful out there in weekly leagues where you're going to take two spins for Tommy Henry. I think in Machia it was going to be the one turn, and then I could decide if I want the second one.
Starting point is 00:57:40 I felt a lot better about that level of control than having to just lock him in for the whole week. Some closer talk here before we go. We see Hunter Harvey getting saves for the whole week. Some closer talk here before we go. We see Hunter Harvey getting saves for the Nationals. It'd be weird if a NFL tight end started getting saves for the Nationals. Hunter Harvey has pitched really well this year, kind of a big model hit for Eno. And the way they're using Kyle Finnegan makes you think that things could be changing a bit there. So there could be some shallow leagues where Hunter Harvey is still available.
Starting point is 00:58:02 I would consider picking him up where possible, if only because of the bad teams in the league, the Nats aren't the absolute worst. They actually do create some save chances. I just saw that Robert Stevenson was acquired by the Rays, and the Rays were on the rundown anyway because Pete Fairbanks went back on the IL with a hip injury. the hip injury. Stevenson actually made some sense to me as a draft and hold and NL only like end game target, just in case David Bednar's injuries from a year ago remained a problem in Pittsburgh. I was very intrigued by some of the underlying numbers there. We know the raise, they always, like many organizations will tweak pitchers once they bring them in. I'm very interested to see if Robert Stevenson can emerge as part of their late inning bullpen mix sooner rather than later, because the underlying stuff is pretty good. Yeah, no, that's a great call. And he definitely gets, I think, probably the best venue that he's pitched in as a major
Starting point is 00:58:57 leaguer. So he's got that going for him. He's got not that, I mean, you worry as much about run support for a reliever, but that's a really interesting possibility. So you have to like the organization and you can't count on Jason Adam to be getting all the save opportunities with Fairbanks out. So that's, I like that call. I also, I like the call with Hunter Harvey. I think that situation is going to flip if it hasn't already in Washington.
Starting point is 00:59:20 And the only other reliever that I've kind of got on my radar right now. And this is, it's definitely like deep league, low level, but Pierce Johnson just hasn't gotten it done as the Rockies closer. And Justin Lawrence has been really good and actually not allowed extra base hits, which is key. I think in a way more important than getting the swing and miss as a Rockies closer that's that profile. So where you really don't have other options, Lawrence is somebody that I would actually look at putting a dollar or two down on. Yeah. We've hit that point in the season where I think if you have a bottom end closer, which I think Pierce Johnson is the walk rate is the big problem. Your loyalty as a big league team is fading, right? It's two
Starting point is 01:00:06 months now. You've got enough to say, okay, this isn't working out. Let's make a change. Lawrence is pretty funky. Lawrence also might be the kind of guy that other teams will come calling about at the trade deadline. It could be a nice bullpen upgrade for someone else. I always find it so challenging to fish in that pond trying to get saves out of the Rockies relievers because as we know, it doesn't take for the blow-ups to really unravel the ratios in cases like that the guy that's been catching my eyes in Chicago it's Julian Merriweather a longtime favorite of Eno going way way back probably to his Cleveland days even as someone that had some different things he could do it's probably flown under the radar unless you watch the Cubs a lot or unless you happen to check on Julian Merriweather every once in a while for some odd reason. So unless you're
Starting point is 01:00:50 Eno or weirdo like me where you just, hey, what's going on with Julian Merriweather? I have an internal clock that goes off after a while where I look. He's actually been good. And it did one blow up his first outing of the year against the Brewers, gave it five runs in less than an inning. He's been sharp since then. And maybe because of all the instability in the back end of that bullpen the possibility of veterans getting traded in july depending on how these next six plus weeks play out for the cubs he could get saves a bit later on too so it's a bit like we talked about cutter crawford where it's a speculative dart for the deepest of leagues, a little more keeper dynasty centric. Maybe an NL only leagues could be a reliever that actually helps your ratios and
Starting point is 01:01:30 eventually does pick up a few saves for you. Yeah. Well, as somebody who's got Edward Oslai and a couple of leagues, I've not wanted to see that development, but I think that's also a really good call and certainly worth a low-end investment right now. You look back since that poor showing back on April 2nd, a 28-7 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 21-2 thirds. Innings for Julian Merriweather, 249 ERA, just a 120 whip, keeping the ball in the yard, not walking a lot of guys. So maybe, just maybe, it's finally happening.
Starting point is 01:02:04 He's got a chance to be, at least for half a season, this year's Jorge Lopez for Eno. I know that was his big hit last year. The guy that he believed in for a long time that finally found his way into a meaningful fantasy role. So keep those fingers crossed if you're waiting for it to happen in a very deep league for Julian
Starting point is 01:02:19 Merriweather. On that note, we are going to wrap things up for this episode of Rates and Barrels. If you've got a question for a future episode, send those our way, ratesandbarrels at gmail.com. We'll try to plow through a bunch of mailbag questions on the episodes next week. If you've got questions prior to a waiver episode, feel free to send those our way on
Starting point is 01:02:35 Twitter. Just let us know they're for a Friday episode. You can find Al on Twitter at almilkyrbb. You can find me at DerekVanRiper. And as always, you can get a subscription to The Athletic for a discounted rate by going to theathletic.com slash ratesandbarrels. It's $2 a month for the first year. That gets you in the door. That gets you Al's waiver columns.
Starting point is 01:02:51 That gets you updated pitcher rankings from Eno. All the other stuff we're doing for fantasy baseball, regular baseball. Anything you want, all for one low price. That's going to do it for this episode of Rates and Barrels. We are back with you on Monday.

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