Rates & Barrels - All-Star Game Takeaways and Enigmatic First Halves

Episode Date: July 12, 2023

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. may have won this year’s Home Run Derby, but Eno and Al are wondering why he has been hitting fewer homers so far in 2023. They also look at some takeaways from this week’s All-Star Game, including lower velocity for several pitchers and Jordan Romano’s back issues. Eno and Al also do a midseason recap of the top-15 starting pitchers in Roto value and try to better understand some enigmatic players, like Bryce Elder, Ha-Seong Kim and Joc Pederson. Rundown 1:05 What’s going on with Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s home run power? 4:34 All-Star Game takeaways 18:46 Reviewing the top 15 Roto starting pitchers 27:46 A few All-Star break news items 42:04 First-half enigmas Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarris Follow Al on Twitter: @almelchiorBB e-mail: [e-mail] Subscribe to The Athletic at $2/month for the first year: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels Subscribe to the Rates & Barrels YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/c/RatesBarrels Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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This is Rates and Barrels. I'm Al Melkier. I'm filling in for Eric Van Ryper. And with me here, of course, is Eno Saris on this show, Wednesday, July 12th. And Eno, just before we were starting here, talking about the All-Star game. We actually didn't talk at all about the Home Run Derby, but we'll get to that in due time. But yeah, I figure we'll chat a little bit about some takeaways from that. And then also just a few, and of course what we expect to be a slow news week,

a few, I think, noteworthy news items. And then we'll just take the opportunity of the break here in the middle of the season to talk about some players that at least I personally am finding a little perplexing, not sure what to do about them and see what your thinking is on those players. Jr. And kind of an interesting winner because one thing to me that's very notable about Guerrero's first half is that for the second year in a row, his home run to fly ball ratio is down. There's certainly, you know, nothing all that wrong with Laddie, but it is an interesting trend. And, you know, he comes away with the crown in the home run derby. So is that something that maybe portends more power in the second half? I mean, the opposite, as Laman said,

that the home run derby messes you up for the second half. But we've had other counterexamples. Juan Soto hit better after his derby championship or derby run one year where he'd been hitting too many ground balls and not pulling enough, and it kind of put him in that sort of swing or that mentality to pull the ball more and hit for more power in that second half. I mean, that's exactly what you want for Vlad Guerrero is more homers. He's doing everything about the same as he normally has.

He's just not lifting the ball as much. And I've got a piece coming out later this week that there's a slight worry for me that the new dimensions in his home park have something to do with this. They raised the walls in a lot of they did very complicated things this offseason i don't remember where like they brought the walls in in some places pushed them out in some places and raised the walls um and it was all kind of hard to model i think the hope is that it'll just be pitching neutral but right now it's actually uh it's flipped over to being more of a pitcher friendly park in one year park factors uh and his home split right now for

vladigar junior is i just looked at it it's not good 247 324 373 so um i don't know. I would assume that some of it is, you know, there's weather factors in that. And then there's, I guess I'm not really with a dome, but I don't know, just maybe getting to understand how his park plays. I mean, I've talked to hitters about that over the past and some hitters will admit to targeting parts of their ballpark. You know,

like Brian Dozier was like, yeah, the only place I can hit these balls out in Minnesota is right there. So if you looked at his map, all his homers were right there. Like he pulled all his homers to the shortest part of Minnesota. So I wonder if there's just some getting to know his own park or if it's just some noise,

there's just some short sample noise. And we've seen Vladimir Guerrero Jr. go on kind of power streaks. He's really good, you know, normally. And then he has these sort of huge power streaks. And I just don't think he's had his power streak yet this year. Yeah. Well, that's a topic that I want to bring up a little bit later because the Yankees had a change at hitting coach.

And in fact, this came up on an earlier episode with John Carlos Stanton being a very streaky power hitter. But we'll save that for a little bit for later because I find that interesting. That's a kind of analysis I sort of lean to and I always wonder if that's something I should be doing. So we'll talk more about that later. But let's fast forward to the actual all-star game, the National League breaking their losing streak, winning for the first time since 2012. And the hero,

Elias Diaz. Very surprising fashion. Yeah. So yeah, right. I mean, a surprising way to, to come away with the victory there.

So, I mean, first of all, I just find it very strange how the all-star game has just been so streaky. It used to be the, you know, when I was a kid, the national league dominated it.

And pretty much for almost my whole adult life, it's been the AL. I think it's just random, but good to see national league bring some parody to the game. I have a, I do have a theory. Let me do this real quick. I might be wrong. My theory was that there were more high-paid players

in the American League, but I think I might be wrong now because the Mets, Padres, Phillies, and Dodgers are all in the top six, and only the Yankees and Angels join them. But maybe a few years back, that was more true. I think that was more true in the past, but with the spending, especially of the Padres and Phillies, I think, because it used to kind of be Yankees and Dodgers, you know?

So some of those Mets, Padres, and Phillies teams spending more, I think, has pushed them to the top. All right. Well, hooray, Nationalres, and Phillies teams spending more, I think has pushed them to the top. All right. Well, hooray National League, at least for this year. And yeah, so getting back to Elias Diaz hits the home run and having something of a breakout season in games that count. And he's somebody who, in a 12-team league that I have in CBS, he's always out there.

I'm always like kind of looking like, Oh, should I add him? And I always pass. And he's, he's available in leagues like that. 10, 12 team leagues.

Uh, I mean, first of all, there's a couple of things, you know, do we buy what he's done in the first half being a top 10 catcher? Uh, in fact,

he's seventh right now, according to the fan graphs, uh, value calculator, uh, among catchers, uh in in roto value standard roto value uh but then there's like you know there's the question of is this

really the level of production that diaz is at right now and also is he going to remain iraqi uh for the rest of the season so when you look at all that together is diaz somebody that we should add where available right now or uh or like i've been doing just keep passing what is going on here this is wild the auction calculator has him as the 48th best catcher going forward well that seems extreme in the other direction i mean i mean is the playing time down is there you know are they yeah is that is that a non-course projection they've got appearances going forward where uh they've got austin wins on color Colorado for 180. Interesting.

But that's not how the playing time has shook out so far. I assume that's building in a trade, which I don't know if that's something projections. No, they don't. Would they build that in? I mean, it's built. I wouldn't think so. It's built on the depth charts playing time for the most part. So let me go to the positional depth charts for the Rockies,

who are last. And no, they've got Austin Wins as the starting catcher, even though Elias Diaz has a better WOBA projected and is currently the guy who's playing the most at the position, isn't he? Oh, absolutely he is. I mean, they picked him for the Austin game. They didn't pick Austin Wins. Like, what?

I don't understand this. This is, you know, this happens. Depth charts are done by humans. And so there is a human looking at this depth chart and thinking austin wins is going to play more and maybe it is due to a trade uh but i would say elias diaz is under contract till 2025 i don't think that this rocky's i think they're this rocky's team is perpetually diluted and uh i think that they'll think we just need to sell off some pieces and try again next year. Because they just signed Chris Bryant to that big contract. They just

have, you know, signed extensions with guys and stuff. So I don't, I think Elias Diaz remains a Rocky. And I would put him more in the top 10. I think the would you rather on Elias Diaz comes down to Cal Raleigh, Tyler Stevenson, Mitch Garver, Danny Jansen, Kybert Ruiz. I'm naming the guys the auction calculator says are all around 12. I mean, is there someone that pops off the page? For me, Cal Raleigh for power. Right. But if Diaz remains a Rocky and you look at what he's done,

he's going to get a power boost from the home games. He's going to get a Babbitt boost from the home games. So I think he's got the potential to be a better all-around producer than every single person that you named now obviously if you would rather have power than than rally is that's uh that's the obvious one and i would think that like cabret ruiz if they both played in the same ballparks going forward would probably have a better batting average and like alejandro kirk maybe but you know kirk and Ruiz, when you've got – it's like Stephen Kwan.

Like do you – I almost think that it's like a command pitcher when they don't have the command and you're just like, are they going to get it back? Like Stephen Kwan is only striking out a little bit more than he did last year. He's got the same kind of similar barrel, max EV, all that type of stuff, O-swing. Like, everything's about the same for Stephen Kwan, except his BABIP is, you know, 30 points lower,

and, you know, his value has evaporated. I mean, he's not a zero, but you know what I'm saying? Like, for Ruiz, his value has totally evaporated. Why? I'm not sure that Cabert Ruiz is going to hit like 270 the rest of the season you know I'm just even those projections say 260 plus or whatever I'm not sure of that because he is making the same amount of contact but he's just not finding grass and I don't know so uh batting average I think you know I could see going Ruiz Cabot Ruiz if you

just really believe those projections home runs I think you could go for Kyle Rowley because he's definitely uh the big dumper with the the big power numbers but overall value I think you're right I think Diaz slips in there as like the 11th or 12th best catcher yeah and I think the piece of context that I left out too is that if you're talking shallower leagues and obviously you're talking one catcher leagues, then the person who's at the kind of the bottom of the top 10, top 12,

that's a pretty replaceable person on waivers in terms of overall value. So why not take the chance that Ruiz, or rather, I'm sorry, Diaz continues to do what he's done. And one other number, by the way, that really sticks out for me is 45 RBIs.

That's almost already a career high for him. He's been hitting cleanup, not the greatest lineup, but a great park. So I don't know. I think there's, there's some sneaky value there, some sneaky shallow league value that is not being,

not being appreciated. He's DH'd six times, it looks like. Yeah, he's played quite a bit. That's kind of fun. That is kind of fun. Well, you noticed some stuff that I think we should get to from the All-Star game in terms of some other takeaways. game in terms of some other takeaways. And again, not really a lot to take away, typically low scoring, low drama game, to be honest. But you notice that so many pitchers who played in this game had a velo drop, like a pretty substantial, what, one to two mile an hour velo drop game to

game, or maybe first half average to game. Do you make anything of that? You know, it's really interesting because the starting pitchers usually come into this game, they're amped to be in the game, they only have to throw one inning, and so they throw harder. So, you know, you've got Zach Gallin throwing a half tick to a tick harder, Josiah Gray throwing almost a tick higher, Alex Cobb threw his sinker a tick harder uh josiah gray throwing uh almost a tick higher uh alex cobb threw his sinker a tick higher um you know who are the other starters that did this um uh nathan nope not him uh sunny gray was up and george kirby is like my prototypical young guy in the all-star amped in his own park, you know,

through two at 0.7 ticks higher. He sat 98.5 in his inning. It wasn't necessarily awesome for him because, you know, he's kind of a control guy, but it was awesome to see him throw a 98.5. So that's like my typical, you know, point to you know starters in these in the futures game too right like i'm like yeah we should relax a little bit like this guy's a starter he's not gonna sit what he sits in the futures game right right um and uh that's always a big asterisk when you're talking about one outings like this but this year uh there were starters that were down and on virtually

every reliever was down so pablo lopez uh down 0.2 not that big a deal but yeah he was down felix bautista who gave up this is where it started i went and i wanted to look at felix bautista's stuff was down his four-seam fastball is down 0.4 and his other stuff was down about a tick so and there was some movement down. So I don't think it was his best stuff. And Michael Lorenzen was down. Let's see here. Carlos Estevez was down.

Yannir Cano was down. Let's see who else was down. Nathan Evaldi was down. And this is the one that maybe worries me the most because he's only throwing an inning, his velo is going down, and it's still down in one inning. So I'm a little bit worried about Eovaldi in the second half. Garrett Cole is down two and a half. Now, I'm not worried about that at all because I kind of got the vibe from him

like I'm just out here slapping ass and having fun. I kind of got the vibe from him like, I'm just out here slapping ass and having fun. So, you know, I don't... I think that, you know, like, Hader was down 1.3. Alexis Diaz was up. Steele was down. Justin Steele, who's like, got to be so happy to be there, is down.

So I don't know exactly how to read this. Mitch Keller was uh 1.6 on the fastball so i don't know exactly how to read all this i i think and we kind of laughed about this but i think it's you know the game doesn't matter and what else because you know two or three pitchers maybe maybe you could otherwise cold you know or maybe that yeah i mean they spent the game was so boring i'm sorry it was so boring uh that when they cut to big poppy and alex rodriguez and them they were sitting there eating popcorn they literally talked for five sitting there eating popcorn. They literally talked for five minutes about eating popcorn and the weather. I'm not kidding. And then they joked

about how dumb it was they were talking about those things. And I was like, yes, yes, it is. You couldn't find anything better to talk about. They're like, the weather's been great. So I don't think the weather was super cold. I mean, they did mention that they weren't sweating. So, you know, I guess it wasn't super hot, but yeah,

these guys weren't bringing their A's of a games. Well, I think, and I get this from you, you know, that there's not really a reason to be concerned since it was not across the board. Except for maybe Eovaldi because it just fits hand in glove with what's going on. And I guess Romano did leave the game with injury right after giving up

what looked like to be a massive homer to Lourdes Gurriel Jr., but it didn't end up being a homer. But I guess you looked it up and it was back tightness. That's not something I get too worked up about until they hit the IL, especially since he now gets an automated two days off. Maybe they give him Friday off too. And he gets three days off. That's, that's a luxury for a reliever.

Yeah. And that maybe it's enough time to, to get things right. So yeah, the report that I read said that he actually felt some tightness in his lower back when he was warming up, figured it would loosen up and never did. right so yeah the report that i read said that he actually felt some tightness in his lower back when he was warming up figured it would loosen up and never did uh as a pitcher i'll take lower back over upper back any day upper back it starts to be shoulder right that's lats and that's that's that's throwing stuff lower back is just you know back soreness to me yeah so uh just one thing though you know be over the the break and into the weekend to keep an eye on.

Romano did say he was going to consult with the Blue Jays medical staff when he gets back to Toronto, which I assume is in the next day or two. So, you know, for those of us who roster Romano, that is it's a little concerning. So that may be the biggest real world takeaway of all from this All-Star weekend. And, you know, this Vila L'Oss for Eovaldi goes hand-in-glove with my ranking. You know, this is now a little bit old, but I had him in the late, like around 40. And that was because of some concerns, because of his projection, but also because of some concerns because of his projection but also because of some concerns for his second half health so if someone values him more as a top 15 to 20 type pitcher I would

believe he's a sell high absolutely and right now going into the second half the number one standard roto starter really fantasy number one yep just to have zach allen you know this is something that happens every time i rank and and someone sort of flies in that doesn't play a lot i mean i think people who are listening to the show and people who play a lot you know understand that what you have done in the most recent future is not exactly what you're gonna keep doing but i remember when i was ranking martin perez a couple years ago when he had a good year maybe last and then someone's like how could you

rank Martin Perez like 80 he's like the number three pitcher so far and I'm like I didn't know that and I don't care

I mean I was like the high man on Eovaldi going in I'm very happy I banked a lot of this you know I did not know he's number one

and I would not consider him number one and I would not consider him number one going forward. Well, that's like with me and Tyler Wells. Like I was the Tyler Wells guy. I've got him on several teams. I'm happy to ride this for as long as it lasts. But do you think he's necessarily what he's accrued so far?

Maybe not. Yeah, I think he's very good. I don't think he's because I think he's top 10 right now. Well, going off of memory here, which I probably shouldn't do. Try Tim's new Sweet Chili Chicken loaded wraps and bowls today. Take your taste buds on an exciting new adventure for lunch or dinner with our delicious new

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A message from the Government of Canada. Anyhow, let's talk about some other things. Let's do that real quick. I think that would be a fun little segment. Oh, well. This is unplanned. Unplanned foray into these... Number seven. 7 starters so far

this year Evaldi, Gallin who I sort of believe I think there's a little bit of softness year to year and sort of dynasty style for Gallin I just wonder what he's going to look like when his fastball is 93 Gallin number 2

Kershaw number 3 that's an interesting one because it never was about his talent. It was always about his innings projection. So it was really hard to put anywhere. And so it's funny that he's three so far and he's on the IL. So that number is going to drop because he's not going to add any more innings for a while. Spencer Strider being four is something we all called.

Well, the funny thing is I feel like he's underperformed. Yeah. No, I do think he could be better. Probably. Well, I would expect he'll be number one rest of the season. Yeah. Especially with DeGrom out for sure. Fromber.

Yeah. Fromber. I don't think I gave him enough love. I think I was a little bit worried that he would allow too many balls in play at a time when the shift ban was taking into effect. What I underrated about Frambois was the added cutter. And the added cutter for Frambois has, I think, really sort of pulled the room together for him

because it has allowed him to go for strikeouts a little bit more often, and he's got the second-best strikeout rate of his career. So, you know, I think I underrated Frambois. I'll take a minor L on that. Eflin was somebody I liked. I think he's overreaching, right? Eflin and Wells are, like like both guys that we probably liked, but we wouldn't put them in our, like how far would you push them?

I'd say probably for both of them, 30-ish. Yeah, I had exactly 30 for Eflin. I guess I had Wells further down because our Stuff Plus-based projections had him with a 4.5 ERA because the Stuff Plus is down. But there's something I like about how he's putting it together. I saw a band in San Diego called Bonnie Dune. And if you look at YouTube or whatever, it looks like just sort of like languid indie rock. But they spent a summer backing another band that was like more of a jam band.

And so now they're like putting together this like, they're all excellent musicians at all of their places. And they have this backing of sort of a more kind of indie rockish style. And they're coming into a new style with all those parts and they have this backing of sort of a more kind of indie rockish style. And they're coming into a new style with all those parts and putting them together in a new way. And so now they're kind of a jam band. And so if you go on YouTube or if you look at Tyler Wells' Stuff Plus from last year

and you look at it this year, you kind of – it's happening in front of you. You know, he's becoming something new in front of you. You know, he's becoming something new in front of you. And so I think, in other words, Tyler Wells, you know, and somebody like Cutter Crawford too, I think they're putting these different pitches together in a new way that's really fascinating to me. So I think I was probably a little bit too hard on Tyler Wells with that 70, 75 or whatever. Shane McClanahan,

everyone loved him. Garrett Cole, everyone loved him. Justin Steele. I think out of all of these guys going forward, I like Justin Steele the least. I think we talked about him about a month ago because we were talking about, and I don't remember who the other pitchers were, you know,

but we were talking about pitchers who were pretty reliant on just two pitches. And my recollection was that you were sort of the most optimistic about Steele out of that group, and I don't remember the reason. Well, in June, he had a 156 ERA, so he kept that going. He only had one start in July. That wasn't great. So we'll see. I'm just putting him up against...

Right now, I'm putting him up against these other guys. I think Wells or Steele. I would probably have them in the 50s somewhere. Ah, okay. And then Luis Castillo, Kevin Gossman. I think they were kind of my preseason 12, 14 in there, and they're 11 and 12, so they pretty much nailed their projections.

Joe Ryan at 13 is interesting. Somebody that we all kind of liked, but I think he's hitting his upper ends. And has come back to earth a little bit recently. I haven't looked at the splits yet, but I've been watching his game log. I think the last one, if I recall, was not good at all. Six earned runs.

So in the last 13 innings, he's given up 13 runs. So in the last 13 innings he's given up 13 runs. So there's something going on with him right now that's a little disconcerting. I can't get... I would love to get Stuff Plus on the game log. That would be

awesome. Maybe next season. Maybe I can see about uh what pitch types he's using well while you're looking that up uh behind ryan is his teammate bailey over that's somebody i want to file away for maybe 10 minutes from now because he's on a list of players i just i don't get and i wrote about i think i wrote about him and Wells in the same column, and I've actually got more concern about Ober. But let's come back to him. 15 is Webb.

I think that's about where you would have expected him to be back in March. I don't know. I guess I am a little bit worried about Ryan. I'm just looking at some numbers here. He's lost some ride in recent games, and he's got that kind of invisible where it's a surprising amount of ride from a weird slot.

So, you know, small changes in his ride could be a big deal. He had the worst ride, second worst ride of his season in his last start. And then the other thing that is less worrisome but interesting is that he has two sliders. He has a sweeper and a regular slider.

And if you look at his game-to-game sideways movement on his slider, it really oscillates. So that suggests to me is he's trying to find the optimal mix of those two sliders. And it has something to do with who he's facing like if he faces a very righty team he's going to go to the sweeper more uh if he faces a big lefty team he's going to go to the the tighter slider more in any case uh some bumps in the road i would say uh among these players i would have him above Wells and Steele. I think I still have him above Eflin and above Eovaldi.

But below Gallin, Strider, McClanahan, Castillo, Gossman, those types. Which, again, kind of tracks with where a lot of us would have seen them preseason. So that long-range view comes in helpful. Sometimes, yeah. It's weird. Yeah. All right. Well, let's talk about some of the things that have happened in the past few days or so.

Again, not a super exciting news week, but I think a few things just worth just touching on, at least for a little bit. The Yankees hired Sean Casey to replace Dylan Lawson as their hitting coach. And this is when you see a team do this midseason, there's obviously problems on offense. So, I mean, first of all, do you put any stock in this kind of personnel change in something that can move the needle? And secondly, is there anybody in that lineup? I talked about Stanton earlier. He's a streaky guy.

I figure he's just got a power streak coming. But him, Rizzo, maybe Anthony Volpe, who we don't have a major league track record for, but anybody there that stands out to you as somebody who maybe could benefit, especially from a new hitting coach or just a turn to the page. I actually think that there's going to be some natural regression. And in the case of Volpe, some growth that's already happening that the new hitting coach is going to get credit for. I know it's not a huge sample, but for Giancarlo Stanton, July had his best walk rate, his best strikeout rate,

and a.481 slugging. And it was, other than March, his best month. And yes, he goes in and out of the tank a little bit, I think due to his strikeout rate and his health. I think that's the story of Stanton. And then with Volpe, one thing I've noticed, it's because of our colleague, Michael Salfino, just harping on him constantly. And I also picked up Volpe in the great fantasy baseball invitational TGFBI just because he was available. And I got him for like 80 bucks or something out of a thousand. I've been thinking, well, did I mess that up? Is he going to be sent down? And Salfino's yelling, he's got to be sent down. He's been yelling about this and he's yelling at that.

Just an interesting thing that I've noticed is that ever since Salfino started yelling about his strikeout rate, Volpe's strikeout rate has just gone so down. If you look at his rolling strikeout rate, it peaked over 35% in Game 50, and ever since then, you know, it's just gone straight down. And his rolling strikeout rate now is 20%. Oh, wow. And that's his best for the season.

And I'm not necessarily saying that Anthony Volpe is going to strike out 20% of the time going forward, but I'm saying that's huge. I mean, we've seen him put up 17, 16, you know, 22s in the minors. If he could cut this to 24, 25, as the projections say, now you're putting, you know, a 9% barrel rate and elite speed and good enough defense. I think he's going to hold on to the position the rest of the way, and I think he's going to hit 240-250 with 10 homers and 10 more steals.

And that is useful and that i think so we did the we did a a survey to hear more about what you guys what our listeners uh are playing and uh there was a little bit more sort of 12 and and 10s than i uh than i expected um and i think anthony volpe is the guy that'll be on your wire uh in some of those leagues and i would pick him up i dropped him in my 12th so there you go there you go yeah yeah i've actually was kind of surprised i will make sure i heard you right that he was available in your tgfbi because that's those are 15 teamers that's pretty, it was a few weeks back. It was like right before he started playing better. Yeah. So I'm a genius.

No, I just picked him up because I was like, well, he shouldn't be out there. Well, that's like what I did with Clark Schmidt, my TGFBI. Yeah. I didn't see anything coming. I just thought this guy's got too much upside to be sitting out there. And it just happened to be timed when he started performing better. I think Rizzo at 33, I don't think he's,

uh, it is right around 33 where projected bounce backs become more problematic. And I think there's probably no better, uh, cover, uh, cover boy for this than Josh Donaldson, who,

um, I think has perpetually for the last four years been a guy who's like, but he's gonna be projected to do better, you know? And those were his seasons 33 through 37. And only in one of those seasons was he actually an incredible player in 2021. So yes, there is some risk that Anthony Rizzo at 33 is quote unquote done or whatever.

But I still see a pretty good barrel rate. The strikeout rate is up, and that's going to happen as you get older, and he is chasing a little bit. But I think it's a good lineup that's going to get healthier, going to get better. That's going to have some sort of juju for the rest of them. I think he can easily hit. 250 with 10 to 15 more homers in the second half. And I mean, that's what you want out of Anthony Rizzo, I think.

Well, you know, if we see the Yankees hit better in the second half, do we give credit to Sean Casey or do we give credit to Michael Salfino? I'm not sure. Or maybe the hitters themselves. Well, and then I wonder sort of philosophically if there's something afoot in New York. I didn't want to make too big a deal out of Brian Sabian being hired because Brian Sabian is not just scouting. You know, like definitely the Giants were out in front of a lot of organizations when it came to communications technology.

were out in front of a lot of organizations when it came to communications technology. And analytics has always been a part of the Giants' way in an underrated fashion, I think. I've often stated that someone told me that they were giving lineups to Bochy in 2010. So that's already more statty than i think most people think the giants are um so i didn't want to be like oh look the yankees are hiring sabian they're going back on their analytics ways uh but i'd have to say that the going from dylan lawson to sean casey it's

it's not that sean casey's anti-analytics but there's a little bit of a vibes change feeling here. And I wonder if in New York, they're paying attention to vibes a little bit more. I do know that like, just reading around the edges, not that I necessarily got a lot straight up like this from him, but I wrote a piece about Sonny Gray, and what it was like for him in New York and the vibes, they were not good. And so, you know, wonder if there's a little bit more attention to just how the players feel and if there should be more of a human connection between the coaches and the players rather than one based on data.

I don't know. This isn't based on reporting, but it's based on reading between the lines and the players rather than one based on data. I don't know. Uh, this isn't based on reporting, but it's based on reading between the lines a little bit with, uh, Brian Sabian and now Sean Casey. Interesting. Well, and you know,

the Yankees surge in the second half, uh, you or somebody could, could certainly, uh, write a piece on, on that and, how much of a,

of a priority that, that that's been, uh, let's just talk about a couple other items that have come up in the last few days. The Dodgers have sent Miguel Vargas down to AAA Oklahoma City. Already Mookie Betts was getting some playing time at second base.

I'm not sure there's anybody other than Vargas himself who's really affected much here. Chris Taylor should be back soon. Maybe that helps him get more playing time. Johnny Taylor should be back soon. Maybe that helps him get more playing time. Johnny DeLuca, maybe? You know, there's been times where I've had Chris Taylor

on some mains and some 15-team leagues where I'm just like, you know, is he droppable? 182 plate appearances in the first half is just, it's a little meager.

But I've held on to him because of all his eligibilities and, you know, 11 homers and seven stolen bases, not so bad. So I've held on to him. I do think this is good news for Chris Taylor. I think that when Chris Taylor comes back, I think he'll put up more than 182 plate appearances in the second half. Yeah, and sort of West Coast Anthony Volpe. If you're going to get some homers, you're going to get some steals.

You may or may not get batting average. Yeah, exactly. Yeah, I think that Taylor, I mean, Miguel Rojas is a bit of an empty bat at short. So there may be some configurations where they want to have Taylor at short, but I think that the main opportunity for Taylor right now is at second. That's a pretty good team defensively. Muncie, Rojas, Taylor, Freeman on the infield, and they've cobbled together enough outfielders.

You have Johnny DeLuca on the rundown. Listen, there's a lot of players in Major League Baseball, so I hope nobody finds this embarrassing. I don't know who Johnny DeLuca is, and I'm looking at who he is right now. Well, I didn't know about him until they called him up. Prospect rank 26th by fan graphs. Right. The 26th by Fangraphs. Right. The 26th best prospect.

They are calling him up though because he makes contact and he makes powerful contact. And by at least production on the field, he's been pretty good. However, I will say 25 at AAA, you don't get any boost on the WRC plus I don't think in terms of

age at level so he is appropriately aged for AAA and he was 16% better than league average so I would assume he's someone that can be league average in the big leagues and I think the projections have it about right which is a 250 guy

you know with some power who's a righty. So I would assume that he steps in sometimes behind David Peralta. Well, it's the Dodgers. I mean, they've got lots of moving parts, as they always do. So I don't know that anybody gets a big bump from the Vargas demotion, but maybe a bunch of people. DeLuca could play his way into time, but I'm not putting a big bid on him to figure out right now

because I do think, you know, most days it's Peralta, Altman, Betts, and then Taylor, Rojas, Muncy, Freeman in that sort of configuration. I don't think they want to play J.D. Martinez in the outfield, so it's not like they have a ton of extra outfielders and infielders.

It's actually a little bit surprising of a move to me. Yeah. Well, hey, I may have missed it, but I think Hayward's an important part of that mix. He's been playing a lot and probably play a little bit more, maybe not enough to make a difference. But, you know, like so many guys that the Dodgers pick up from other teams, he's really reinvigorated his career.

Jeez. This is his best slugging percentage since 2012. Incredible. Well, yeah, when Jason Hayward has a big year, the NL wins the All-Star game. That's just the rules. Well done. That's rock solid, dude. that's just the rules well done that's rock solid dude

that's our that's the rates and barrels better than A there you go I don't know if it's a new segment but yeah Best Western made booking our family beach vacation a breeze.

And it felt a little like... Come on kids, back to the hotel room. Good night kids. Good night mama. Life's a trip make the most of it at best western well let's uh just uh hop on over the marlins for one second they sent yuri perez down which was expected at some point and i mean right before the all-star game is probably as predictable a time as any. Johnny Cueto has rejoined the team, but not clear if he's going to be in the rotation, did not have good results in his rehab assignment. So I think there's a bit of a question there about how they fill spots four and five in the rotation in the short and long term. But I think the big question here, fantasy-wise, is what do we do with Perez? I think he's a hold, obviously, if you have any room at all.

I got him offered a couple days ago in a trade, along with you, Darvish, for Austin Riley. I turned it down because I was concerned enough about the innings. Obviously, I think that would have been a yes for me if I thought Perez would pitch a lot. But how do you think we should treat him going forward? And redraft, of course. Somebody was asking me also, and I hope they are a listener so they can hear this answer because it's too far down in my mentions. I can't find it anymore. But somebody was asking me about trading Bobby Miller and Josh Lowe for Uri Perez in a league where Josh Lowe would be a fringe keeper or maybe not a keeper for them.

So a little bit of overpay to get the pitcher-keeper they wanted. I'm hoping with this send-down that that person could make that trade for less. You're right. They should. Because Bobby Miller's in the big leagues. So I'd rather do Bobby Miller in a worse player than Josh Lowe and keep Josh Lowe around or whatever. And I did like Bobby Miller a little bit better than Uri Perez,

but Perez has been really performing so well that I could get with putting Uri Perez ahead of Bobby Miller. And I think everybody who has him has to hold him. I think this is just a managing of his innings. It's going to get a little bit iffy for you holding him for the next week or two, but I would assume that next week we hear about a plan to bring him back up. That would be helpful. So then we can come back with something. Just try to hold them through this Sunday and then, and hope that you get more information next week. All right.

Seems, seems very sound. All right. Well, I don't know, you know, how many of these players we're going to get to. I put a whole list of guys that have just been real enigmas for me.

Let's say, I know we mentioned, who did I mention? Somebody earlier, Bailey over. definitely talk about him i also want to talk about bryce elder because you and british early recently wrote about him in uh in a recent column so i guess starting with over and elder whichever order you want to tackle it um both have obviously performed well above expectations in the first half. How much of that do you like going forward?

I just don't believe it with Elder. You know, I talk about stuff plus too much. I don't want to base it too much on that. But, like, a 75 stuff plus is really pushing it. And I did notice in a piece that I did about strikeouts that the sinker is performing better this season than it has ever in the pitch tracking era, at least relative to other pitch types. So there's a little bit of the resurgence of the sinker. But we also know from previous research on Sierra and stuff that a 55% ground ball is not that amazing.

Like, you know, when you start hitting 60%, you start actually getting a better Babbitt than you expect. And so, you know, he's hovering around 50. You know, he was 49% his rookie year, Bryce Elder was. Now he's 55%. He just got hit hard, hard by the the rays uh you know the rays are interesting because they have a team that hits the ball hard and sometimes on the ground and sometimes in the air but they just hit the ball hard and bryce elder even in his quote to us to to brit at the

all-star game said i'm just gonna throw it in there and sometimes they're gonna hit it hard i was like uh uh-huh so uh you know he does have good command i do think worse days are coming uh i don't think a 55 you know like you think about fromber right fromber was the guy that i did say that i underrated uh and so you could say you know you're missing a new Framber. Framber's ground ball rates last year were 66.5%. 70% in 2021. Like, Framber is way out there. It is 55% this year.

But I would say that Framber is a way better ground ball guy than Bryce Elder. I'm not given Bryce Elder from our outcomes. Just not going to do that. Right. I mean, yeah. From where might not be replicating what he did last year,

but he's got that in his history. Yeah. You know, you could get there. And also I just pulled up some stats, something I put in the rundown had to do with elders, the launch angle on the grounders. Cause that,

that does matter. Yeah. Cause Frambois has always been like a, like a almost minus, like he's, he gives up like real worm burners. Yeah. So yeah, season to date. And this is down for Frambois too. I don't have the 2022 number in front of me, but I know it was really high.

His, he's got a pretty normal launch angle on his grounders this year, a negative 13.9 degrees. Elders, he's getting relatively high grounders, 11 degrees. Graham Ashcraft is somebody I picked up going into the break. Positive 11? I'm sorry, negative 11. Negative 11.

Yeah, positive level would be very bad. Yes, that would be very bad. Non-grounders. Not even grounders anymore. Those are just line drives. Negative 11. Well, who's around him in negative 11? I didn't pull up the whole rankings.

I can do that in a moment. I just want to throw Graham Ashcraft out there because part of what I liked about him going into this year was that fromber type of profile, not necessarily a lot of strikeouts, although we thought maybe with the slider he'd get more this year, but just tons of low grounders. Negative 16.5 degrees

uh so he's he's getting that done so yeah if you give me uh uh who who else did we uh barely over i'll talk about yeah riff on if you riff on over i can pull up the whole rankings so you know over doesn't have uh necessarily standout stuff plus so i'll admit that but um you know he does he's at 82 so he's better and he's got uh you know an interesting mix of like near league average uh pitches with great location plus so i think the uh what's going on over is a great command of multiple pitches and be some deception that this model may not be capturing i know that that the twins are big on KineTrax, which tracks all the limbs.

They have limb tracking data that I can't put in Stuff Plus. And if you just go to Savant and load up a Bailey, I actually like this. You know that function where you can just load random video? just you know go to you know go to savant and load up a bailey one of those i like i actually like this you know that that function where you can just uh load random video yeah i actually like that because it's uh it's a quick way to kind of uh get a sense of uh how a guy pitches and he's tall but he pitches uh from like a three-quarter slot. And so having a guy who's 6'9", in terms of raw release point, you're going to have one idea of it.

He probably throws from the same release point as guys who are like 5'10". But he's 6'9". So there's something there about the angle uh relative to the body uh that that maybe maybe i should put pitcher height in my model you know to kind of triangulate that release point right now you got release point is like a kind of a 2d ish thing maybe with extension you got 3d but there's it's actually almost 40 because it's relative to the height because you're still gonna appraise this pitcher by how large he is right that you're

still gonna kind of look for his arm out of a certain place based on how big the pitcher is i think this is you know a sean hangelli thing too if for the giants fans listening but i i think there's something weird about having a guy who's 6'9", throw from like a lower, kind of a lower slot. And I'm not sure that my numbers capture that. And then, you know, at this point, 80 innings in with a 20% K-BB and a 12.5% string strike rate, I'm in. All right. All right. Well, you had the question, I think it was about Elder

and who's around him in terms of that ground ball launch angle. So there are 65 pitchers who've induced 100 grounders so far. And Elder has the 14th lowest average launch angle. So in his neighborhood is Corbin, Myaels lucas giolito john gray and below him is martin perez and that great i think martin perez is kind of you know maybe a model almost for for him i know that they're not the same handed and have different arsenals but just in terms of like that's what happens when a guy who doesn't have standout stuff and relies on ground booters.

That's what their career is like. It goes up and down. That's how I see Elder. Maybe this is going to be, you know, a good season for him, but I wouldn't necessarily bet on him going forward. One of the other guy you have listed on here is hilarious, is Dane Dunning, who has a 9% strikeout minus walk rate and a 15.9% strikeout rate, which is really low. And it does not come with a ground ball rate that supports it at all at 45%. So,

you know, there's used to be a segment real or Memorex. I don't even know what Memorex is. What is Memorex? It's a tape cassette, cassette, blank cassette tapes. But like they,

we like didn't use them anymore. And that's why it's real. I remember X. I think it was the, I can't remember. That was the one to add with all of Fitzgerald where she shatters the glass and you have to guess is that the recording or the live oh that's it good jeez that's it that's an old pull 1982 i just gave away my age there yeah well for some reason it was in my lexicon uh any case uh memorex

uh any case uh Memorex yeah okay I'm with you there and I I love that Perez comp or no the Perez comp was for Elder I liked it for him yeah because I think what we're seeing from Elder to go back to him is uh kind of his 2022 Martin Perez season yeah yeah that's what i'm saying and then and then maybe then next year he'll have martin perez's this year exactly yeah exactly that's that's i feel you on that cool all right well let's talk about maybe couple hitters here um you know did we i guess we talked a little bit about stanton with that yankees breakdown yeah i mean I mean, like you have Eugenio Suarez on here, and we have talked about him recently, but I would just say like comparing the two, I kind of like Stanton better.

You know, I just think that, you know, relying on second half splits to just sort of wash away some of the stuff that you kind of see falling off for Suarez. It's going to work until it doesn't, if that makes sense. It's like, you know, I could ignore that his bail rate is down 3% and that his max EV is the worst it's been in six years, seven years. You know, I could ignore some of that and just point to the second half splits, and I have mentioned that in the past. But the further the slump goes for Suarez,

the less likely I am to kind of reach for him. I don't think... Second half splits have not been proven to be predictive. Yeah. No reason why you would necessarily think that they would. Peterson, on the other hand, has the best max EV of his career. His barrel rate is down, but not as much as Suarez, Jock Peterson. His strikeout rate is down.

And if you can handle him, if he's a daily guy for you, like if you have a daily league where you can slot him in and out, I think he's absolutely somebody I'd pick up off the wire in a 12 team, especially to play away from home against varieties. But even at home, I think he's going to go on one of his home run tears pretty soon. Yeah, I like that call. We're back to the streaky power hitter thing. I'm looking at my 12 team now, Peterson is available, uh, 70% rostered and CBS. So yeah,

precisely the kind of roster rate where decent chances in your 12 team are definitely should be out there and anything, anything shallower than that. And I like that calls him somebody you can stream on and off of your bench, uh, depending on the matchup and venue. Uh, let's just finish up with a couple of hitters who to me seem to be over-performing. See what you think. Hassan Kim, very much a similar profile to last year,

but we're, we're seeing some power from him. We haven't seen before. And Leody Tavares, I think kind of a similar thing, like the, to use your, your example of is it live or is it Memorex?

You know, Taveras seems to be doing similar things to what he did in 2022, and yet the results have been much better. Yeah, you know, somewhat complicating is the ball is flying a little better this year. So, you know, Hasan Kim had a 150 better this year. So, you know, Ha Sung Kim had a 150 ISO in 2021. He has a 153 now. He had a 132 in between. I think he's moved from doubles to homers. Because, yeah, let me look at that.

Because I'm a little surprised that the ISO... The home run for fly ball rate is better. Yeah. And the fly ball rate is a little surprised that the home run for fly rate ball rate is, is better. Yeah. Um, and the fly ball rate is a little better. I, I, I don't,

I see him as having about league average power, which is good. I think he's, he's going to come really close to 2020 season and, uh, kind of reminds me a little bit of like Tyra Estrada, uh, in terms of fantasy value, uh, a little bit of like Tyra Estrada in terms of fantasy value.

A little bit less power. But I don't see a reason to hate on him. And I think his defense keeps him in the game. He's got some of the best defensive numbers. And it's on a team that would like to have those good defensive numbers. So I think that the nice thing about both Haseon Kim and Leota Tavares is no matter what their actual true talent power is right now, their defense is going to keep them in the game. And they're both projected for about seven more homers

and 10 to 12 more stolen bases. They're both going to get really close to 2020. And if I had to pick one, I might pick Tavares just because he's younger and a little bit more potential there. Plus, I also noticed that Texas is playing a little bit more hitter-friendly this year, which could just be a blip in the par factors.

Right. One year, half a year, in fact, it's hard to tell. And I just confirmed something because when you made the comparison between Kim and Estrada, which I liked a lot, I'm like, yeah, hard to tell and i just confirmed something because when you made the comparison uh between kim and estrada which i liked a lot i'm like yeah like they they do offer very much the same thing and estrada even though he's on the il is still rostered on cbs at 89 kim just 75 so that's you know again shallower leagues if you're looking for pick up somebody who's yeah

if you're looking for somebody if you if you just lost miguel leagues. If you're looking for... Have a chance to pick up somebody who's... Yeah, if you're looking for somebody, if you just lost Miguel Vargas and you were hoping for some power and speed from him, you know, and Kim is out there, how much more were you hoping out of Vargas than Kim? Yeah, yeah, interesting. Very cool. Well, I know we've skipped over a few players on the rundown.

Maybe you've got some things, some loose ends in terms of things you want to talk about. So anything before we, I just saw that you had Corbin Burns on there and I just, I totally believe, I think he's gonna be fine. Yeah, I do too.

So keep, keep the faith there. And on that positive note, we will wind up this again, this first episode of the second half, get ready, get excited folks. We'll have baseball back on Friday.

If you do not already subscribe to The Athletic, you can do so now for $2 a month for the first year. Just go to theathletic.com slash ratesandbarrels for that deal, and you get to read all of Eno's work. I'll keep my waiver wire columns coming out every Friday, I think, until the very end of the season. I got a PCI coming up on one year aberrations or short term aberrations and part factors. Oh, that's yeah, that's really good. Sounds like very cool stuff. So definitely come

and check that out. So lots of good stuff there on The Athletic. Come sign up for that if you have not done so already. So for Inoceros, I am Al Melchior, and we will be right back here on Friday. Thanks for listening. Thank you.