Rates & Barrels - An Early Free Agent Frenzy: Scherzer, Semien, Marte, Gausman & Extensions!

Episode Date: November 29, 2021

Eno & DVR return from a two-week break to a massive haul of free-agent signings and extensions including Max Scherzer and Starling Marte to the Mets, Marcus Semien to the Rangers, Kevin Gausman to the Blue Jays, an 11-year extension for Wander Franco, and a seven-year deal for Byron Buxton to remain in Minnesota.  Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarris Follow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiper e-mail: [e-mail] Subscribe to The Athletic at $1/month for the first year: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels Subscribe to the Rates & Barrels Podcast Apple: http://bit.ly/AppleRandB Spotify: http://bit.ly/SpotifyRandB Google: http://bit.ly/RatesGoogle Stitcher: http://bit.ly/STRandB TuneIn: http://bit.ly/RBTuneIn Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Welcome to Rates and Barrels, we are back. It is Monday, November 29th. Derek Van Ryper here with Eno Saris, and I thought when we were making the schedule for the offseason, I thought that the two weeks at the end of November was pretty much the safest possible time with a lockout looming to take a couple of weeks off from shows. I was wrong. Actually, we've got like a month's worth of news in the last week or so. We've got mega extensions for players. We've got even a trade to get to. We've got a bunch of free agent signings. The Mets have done more smart things than stupid things during this span. I mean, this is unprecedented times. Before we started recording, I told Eno I feel bad that Britt's not here for transactional news that we like for the Mets because it seems like that would be a very rare

occurrence. Britt on vacation. She'll be back soon. But Eno, how'd everything go for you while we were gone? I mean, happy Thanksgiving, and thank you again for hosting. It was awesome. How'd everything else go throughout your time off? I gave up the keg. Oh, the keg is gone. I gave up on the keg. But I will say i thought that near the end i had about 30 left in the keg however when after the basting uh and then when i decided that i was just going to empty it uh i only emptied it for a minute and 45 seconds uh before it was totally empty so i don't really know my fluid dynamics that well well to tell you exactly how many beers that was, but I would say that it could have been less than 10.

I would assume, because if you had to empty an entire keg, I would assume 10 minutes would be at least 10 minutes. I mean, that's with a lot of pressure and everything too. So yeah, I would say you did more damage on that keg. and everything too. So yeah, I would say you did more damage on that keg. Oh, and also an empty keg is heavier. It's been a while since I've interacted with kegs.

So an empty keg is a little bit heavier than I expected. You know, so like some of my, oh my God, I'll never finish this, was actually just feeling the metal of the keg you know they are surprisingly heavy uh from i don't know 20 years ago or whatever the last time was that i actually lifted one so my final estimate is there's about 140 beers in a keg right yep uh my final and the party goers uh had another you know 40 or 50 yeah i think i had about four of those 40 so yeah there you go pat yourself on the back and uh and then we let i let sort of 10 to 20 go at the end there so uh i think that's like guys you know considering my age and the fact

that we're still you know we're not like having parties every day at every other people's houses here in northern california it's still pretty pretty chill on the going out uh level for for corona so i mean i might have been you know if i was a little bit younger and it wasn't Corona, I might have been like, everybody to my house now. We are finishing this keg tonight. Boat races with 8% IPAs. Yeah, that would have been gross. I mean, that would have ended in a very, very bad place. But glad the keg was mostly polished off.

And thanks again for sharing that. The key to finishing a keg is brining turkeys though that's a that's a secret we weren't thinking about that a few weeks ago i think maybe we thought the keg would have been gone at that time but it was it was its last uh donation to my life was brining the turkeys and the turkeys i thought uh did well for it you know a lot of the instructions on brining say use some some malty beer, use like a brown or a stout or something. And in order to get some of that malt taste in there, I don't know, man. The bird to me is an herbal thing. You know, it has all sorts of herbs in it. So I think that

the hops in the beer just read as another herb. And it was super juicy you know it was a spatchcocked so like you know i don't know between the spatchcocking and the brining uh man that's my my my gift to you out there if you don't think the turkey is good spatchcock it and brine it and come back if this video gets 10 000 likes we will uh do a video episode of you know spatchcocking the turkey in thanksgiving 2022 that's the one thing about spatchcocking is like my wife is like can't even be in the kitchen when i'm doing it and i was like look kids i'm ripping out its spine yeah your kids are at the age where they could think it's really cool or they could be traumatized and never want to eat meat again like they're right on that borderline and one of them was like, I don't care, Dad. I was like, all right, you're already a nihilist. Great.

Awesome. I love it. My six-year-old is a nihilist. Well, let's get to the Mets. We'll start there. Tons of stuff happening. We're going to get to as much of it as we can. Segway from nihilism. Yeah. I felt like that was appropriate. if you're a mets fan you're much better off as a nihilist than actually being invested in their ultimate success but they're doing everything in their power right now to make this team a lot better on paper the latest of which

it's not confirmed yet but just as we've started recording a three-year, $130 million deal with Max Scherzer. And now it's a bundle, right? It's Scherzer plus Starling Marte, plus Mark Kanha, plus Eduardo Escobar. I saw some people on Twitter getting really excited about Nick Plummer. I think he's now been pushed completely off the radar as like a fourth or fifth outfielder. But we begin with Scherzer, as like a fourth or fifth outfielder. But we begin with Scherzer, 3-1-30, a nice deal for a pitcher his age, of course, over $40 million per in terms of an average annual value. That is a record.

And I think it's pretty clear the Mets believe he can still pitch like a top-five, top-ten pitcher over most, if not all, of that deal. Yeah, you know, I think that the way that pitcher aging is going these days, pitchers are aging better because they're retaining more of their strikeout ability in this sort of strikeout rich league that we're in. This is the kind of perfect guy to bet on because his strikeout rate really hasn't waned. Last season it was 34.1%. For his career, it's 29%. He really only has done better than he did last season in terms of strikeouts twice in his career. And just barely. Maybe three

times, but just barely. So he's striking everybody out, and that's a great place to start. Now the homers, I think have started to come back into his career. Uh, I think that's where, you know, the homers and walks is where you'll see the age. Uh, but on a three-year deal, uh, I know that they, they, you know, the, the saying is there's no such thing as a bad one-year deal. I think that that has gone to the point now where the good players get more than a one-year deal. So I would almost say there's no such thing as a bad three-year deal at this point. Just because year one, you probably get what you want.

Year two, if he's injured, you hope it's not the full year injury. And then year three, if you lose one of those years, it's the price of doing business. Maybe that's not your best season. However, it doesn't hamstring your entire organization for years and years, like something like a Pujols deal, where you're just like, that's dead money for five more years,

like Eric Hosmer, right? If it's a three-year deal, you know, where you're just like, that's dead money for five more years. Like Eric Hosmer, right? If it's a three-year deal, it's dead money at worst for a year of it, I think. And so that's why the money's so big. That's why the deal is short. And that's why, you know, I think the Mets fans should be super happy about this deal. This depth chart looks a lot more impressive with all the adjustments that have been made already. I mean, the uncertainty around Jacob deGrom is going to linger through spring training, maybe through the early part of the season. There's going to be concerns about his workload if he starts early. All of those things are going to be there.

But a lot of that anxiety, just from a fan perspective even, gets reduced because you have Scherzer there. You have two aces now. If the Grom is healthy, you've still got one, even if he's not. And I assume they're still not done. They're going to be looking at that, that second tier of pitchers.

Of course, we'll get to Steven Matz a bit later in the show. The Mets thought they had a deal with him, or at least Steve Cohen thought they had a deal. Steven Matz turns out. No, I don't actually love that deal. I think that last year represented the absolute peak for matt's

uh just in terms of uh you know all the work that he did to improve his pitches and his fastball still wasn't very good even at that velo and he had a really big split between high velo and low velo um and so i think if he drops below 94 at all on average on his fastball, he's going to be a bad pitcher. So, you know, four years, he's the kind of guy I would have loved to give a one or two year deal to. So if that losing out on Matz had anything to do with this, with the rest of this, then I would say, hey, you know, good luck to you, Steven Matz. And yeah, the Mets will take Max Serzer.

You know, so, you know, this is also the kind of thing where, you know, if they get lucky health-wise, it now becomes a championship-type contender team, right? If they get half lucky and they have one of DeGrom or Scherzer, they can still run it through. You know, we saw with the Braves is it through you know we saw with the the the braves is that

you know you make the postseason and then who knows what happens after that so even if they only have one of max scherzer or jake de graham a team like this could win uh if they if they got to the postseason right and then of course because it's an older team there is still the risk that they have poor health luck in any given season and, I don't know, possibly don't even make the postseason. I mean, you're talking about Carrasco, DeGrom, and Scherzer. There's a real fair amount of injury risk there. There is. I think this is an offense, though, that is rapidly improving because of the changes that are being made there.

I mean, you had Starling Marte, 4 for 78. I thought per year he might get a little more than that. I thought he'd probably top out around three years because of his age. But really, I mean, the thing that Starling Marte brings to the table for us as fantasy players, of course, is speed first and foremost. But he brings it with a good average. That average is backed by a good OBP. I know a lot of that OBP has the hit-by-pitch bump in it, which can be a bit costly. Yeah, and hit

BABIP. He has a.344 batting average of balls in play for his career. A lot of it is results on balls in play, which is tied into his speed. Any injury to his legs might be a significant one for him. But he'll be a Met through his age 36 season. I think you're really just worried about the next couple seasons, really, the next two. Is he still the player you expect him to be for the next two? And then how does he taper off after that? Thinking about how this team is built, their needs in center field, it certainly makes sense.

Will he still be a good center fielder at the end of the deal? It doesn't matter. Is he a good center fielder right now? That's the problem. The only problem for me is I saw a headline that was like, you know, they're improving their defense. And I was like, I mean, they're all post-peak defensively. And then, you know, most of them, at least by outs above average,

were below average. So defense is really a really tough thing to improve in free agency. I'm not sure they did it 100%, but they also have really good players, and you'd think with the offense and the pitching clicking, maybe they can look the other way on defense. And in fact, I think that's kind of Sandy Alderson's MO is to kind of not focus on defense.

Marte was still in the 82nd percentile in terms of outs above average in 2021. So it's not like he's bad by any stretch. It's above average. And the sprint speed was still there. Yeah, so it's certainly the sprint speed was still there yeah so it's just it's it's unlikely it stays there it's just probably better than Nemo or Conforto in center yeah I mean I never thought Conforto could play center when he came into the league

I didn't expect that to be part of his path but you put Marte in center it kind of puts Mark Kanha who they just added and left Nemo moves moves to a corner as well. It kind of puts Dominic Smith in the extra bat spot, which is fine after the year that he just had. And maybe there's some trade still coming with this Mets team. That's a possibility as well. I think when we talked about Kanha last, it was a question of which team was going to get a deal because he's the kind of player that does a lot of things really well

and just adds a nice floor to your everyday or near-everyday lineup. Yeah, and it's funny that Kanha and Marte, that a large part of their OBP comes from hit-by-pitches, both of them. Hit-by-pitches is a skill. It's a skill. It sticks around. I think you're right, though. It's a dangerous skill. It's one that can lead to lots of missed time.

You know, Marte, just last year, I think, the rib injury was a plunk, right? Believe so, yeah. And so, you know, and Ken Haas missed a lot of time. They also don't have great power either of them so you're putting them now in a park that suppresses power honestly um so for fantasy reasons uh kenha might actually be the most hurt by any of this other than like mcneil uh and davis and and um and smith uh dominic smith jd davis and jeff mcneil but mark khanha i think also gets hurt by this because he doesn't have and Smith, Dominic Smith, J.D. Davis, and Jeff McNeil. But Mark Cunha, I think, also gets hurt by this

because he doesn't have great power. So if you're talking about a guy who might have been, you know, if you gave him full playing time, might have been a guy who hit.240 with, you know, 20 homers and, you know and 10 steals or something. I think he's more a 15 and 10 guy. And this team hasn't been one that steals a lot. So what if he's like a 15 and five guy at 245? I think that's a pretty borderline fantasy player. But for them, probably a really good OBP. And he adds depth by, yes, he's the starter, but he pushes McNeil, Davis, and Smith into depth. If there is no NLDH from a real

baseball perspective, then I would expect the Mets to trade one of the three, whichever gives them a better prospect return. Or maybe Davis or Smith because they have less positional versatility. I think it's something like that. And keep McNeil as kind of a utility guy along with your offensive utility guy and Guillaume as your defensive utility guy. That's a pretty good combination. Yeah, McNeil can play enough spots where he can function as your first six innings, first seven innings utility guy if you want to play it that way it could be the regular second baseman too depending on how all the other

pieces yeah because can know you know that's that's still sitting there to for them to figure out i would assume that it's kind of a cano mcneil situation at second um as they figure out if cano has anything left yeah and it might just be time to let Robinson Cano go and accept that as a sunk cost at this point too. Eduardo Escobar, also a part of this conversation. Now he got a two-year deal worth $20 million. For now, he's penciled in atop the depth chart at third base, but he moves around.

Great fit in the clubhouse. I think he's one of those players that probably, through a sabermetric lens, leaves a little something to be desired compared to Kanhan Marte, who can base a lot, especially Escobar, even when things are going well, is more of like a 320, 330 OBP guy, and there's certainly risk. You see it in the projection. Steamer's got him at a 241, 301, 429 line.

I'm actually a little more worried about Escobar going into city field than i am about some of the other players like the guys come like like uh like marte coming out of miami and oakland and very picture-friendly environments it might be a slight park upgrade for those guys but it's a downgrade for someone like escobar who's been in arizona and at the end of the season was in milwaukee 100 i think he yeah maybe even hurt more than ken how you're right because ken has been playing in a place that suppresses power as well. So a good point there. I also, this is the, from a real baseball perspective, this is the signing I like the least just because I like J.D. Davis. I think he can hit. I'm not sure that Escobar's

defense is so much of an upgrade that it's worth spending that money and pushing Davis back deeper on the depth chart. And then I just see, you know, Escobar's power is slightly soft in terms of, you know, I would project him probably for like a 6% bail rate next year. And in city, that's going to produce like 20 homers so now you're talking about a guy that will have average power below average patience um slightly above average contact and slightly below average defense i think it actually all adds up to slightly below average um and that's sort of that's an interesting thing to kind of spend money on uh but uh that's the that's a picking the nets really.

Right. I mean, there's, there's some defensive questions. Maybe the Escobar deal wasn't great, but as a whole, what they did was add a lot of, you know,

at least average starters to push some of their other guys into depth pieces, which was, I think is really smart. And then, you know, you can't, you can't hate on adding match serves. So, you know, writ large, I like their offseason.

Yeah, I mean, at worst, probably a B+, but probably more realistically, this is an A so far, and I don't think they're done. I look at the Mets as a team that, you know, if you said, well, I thought Eduardo Escobar should get two for 15. Well, the Mets can afford two for 20. They're the team. You're sitting at an auction table in fantasy. Everyone's got 260 to spend.

The Mets have like 360 to spend right now. Right. So they can hit a couple extra bucks. They can overpay a little bit, and that's fine. We want players to get paid. And it's not going to burn them forever. It's not going to prevent them from doing something else later based on how they seem to indicate that they want to operate. Right. And it'll also actually probably cause you to maybe fall into some values elsewhere.

And the way that I think of it is think about the fringe player that either will take a minor league deal or a small veteran deal. Say Cole Calhoun, right? If you're Cole Calhoun and you're talking to the Rangers, the Rangers say, well, listen, we're about to sign this guy. They can tell you that kind of thing, right? We're about to sign Marcus Simeon. We're not going to end there. We're going to sign John Gray, and we're not going to stop there.

We're going to sign a bunch of guys. So you've got Donnie Ecker here who you used to work with in Anaheim. So you've got a great hitting coach that you'd like, and you've got these other stars coming. So come with us on a small deal. I haven't even seen the terms. I'm assuming it's a tiny deal. And then when you're the Mets now, I feel like let's talk about Rich Hill.

Rich Hill is going to sign somewhere for like one in four million, right? One in three million. Less than what he did last year, but still something that he can help out and give you guys 90 to 100 innings of decent work, right? He's still like third among free agents in Stuff Plus. Rich Hill can still help a team. And he can really choose where to go with that three million right he could go back to the dodgers he could go to the giants it's not gonna he's not gonna make a decision for the rest of his career because the rest of his career is

like two more years right i mean it's the rest of his career could be this last deal and i don't think he's gonna be like oh i'm gonna go to the place that gives me 4.5 versus four and i don't think he's gonna have an offer from one team that's like 8 million or the Mets 3 million. I think they're all going to come in around the same. That's what they do. And so, you know, you end up, Rich Hill will be looking at three or four deals that separate by like a million at tops. And he'll be like, you know what? It might be fun to be in New York.

This looks like a fun team they're putting together. So I'm going to go and be probably worth more than my my three million but that's the only offer anyone's giving me and boom now you've got a really old rotation um you know but you've when they're all healthy they're good and you've pushed tyler megiel who's i think somewhat exciting and david peterson is is useful now they're your six and seven you know and i think that's the kind of thing that they'll do when baseball comes back online. They'll try and grab either a reliever or starter that is just excited to come to New York, basically. I like the idea of those guys being not in your projected five to begin the year, but you know you're going to need them at some point. You think back to Dodgers teams in recent years, andoss stripling for a long time was that sort of guy it's great to have those swing options who

are good enough starters when you need them and they're useful multi-inning relievers when you don't think that's a great spot to be in if you are the mets you had the segue kind of snuck in there marcus texas baby marcus semi into the rangers this was the number one thing on the rundown until the scherzer thing broke about four minutes before we started recording so the rangers could have let off the show and you and brit and i spent i think a hundred million dollars in about four and a half minutes uh one of our last they're gonna do it too they're gonna do it and we kind of had a good sense of like well where are they going to spend marcus simeon gets seven and 175 i've seen the rangers linked to cory seager i'd be a little surprised that

they got both it's not impossible like they certainly have the money they built a new stadium payroll was low more power to them if they want to go out and get both it is my it is my uh understanding from talking to people around the game that there is another big one coming and it wasn't just gray and it wasn't just Simeon. So nice. Well, seven for one 75 for Marcus Simeon, like kudos to him for having to bet on himself and coming through with another massive year,

showing us that 2019 was not in fact the career year with what he did with the blue Jays. Thinking about this from a fantasy perspective for a moment, we're thinking about the park factors with Citi Field and the guys going there. This is one where I do have a little bit of concern, but we still don't have enough data, at least I don't think we have enough data, to look at the new stadium in Arlington and say,

this is definitely how it plays, but it is playing pretty similar to how Rogers Center has played, at least it did in 2021 because Rogers Center has played more neutral than people realize. It has that reputation. They just have a really good offensive team. We did see Vlad Guerrero have pretty strong splits between Buffalo and Florida, Dunedin and Rogers Center. I did see that. Yeah, and it's complicated by how much they moved around this year and all that, but the point here is that the concerns I would have about Marcus Simeon

are more related to the supporting cast as they build out that lineup around him. It's almost certainly, even if the Rangers add another big free agent bat to go with him, almost certainly going to be a less powerful lineup around him in Texas than the one that he spent around him in 2021 with the Jays. So that's the, the counting stats might not be quite as gaudy. I think the questions come down to,

And the power might, might be more like Oakland, but we'll see. Yeah, is it 30 home run power? And is it still 10 to 15 steals? Like where do we fall on power and speed projections for Simeon going to his new team? Yeah, that's funny that you point that out. In my mind, Texas is a pitcher's park and Rogers is a hitter's park. So that's just a sort of blink assessment, right?

I totally believe you that it plays closer. So, you know, the steamer projections, 260, 30 homers, 11 steals. I'd like to pay for, I'd like to buy him at less than that. You know what I'm saying? Like if it's fantasy and I'm in an auction and Marcus Simeon's up,

I'd like to buy Marcus Simeon at like 260, 25, and 10. Okay. And then hope that he plays more to it. The other thing that factored into this is he's been an iron man. And I think he's led the league in war since 2019, but he's also pretty close to leading the league in plate appearances. In fact, I think he does. So you can read that a couple different ways, right? I mean, I think the way that the Rangers read that is he's an Ironman.

He's dedicated to being out there. He takes care of himself and this and that and the other. But we've also said on this show, a lot of times you look at a guy and it's like 600 600 600 200 you know it just comes out of nowhere um and time comes for everyone and it's like maybe that research that's out there that uh on baseball prospectus about how um every pitch is bad for you in terms of like pitchers like just getting worse over the course of the season because of fatigue. Maybe it's the same for hitters where every plate appearance is bad for you

in terms of the long-term ramifications. So that part would make me a little nervous. The thing that I love about Marcus Simeon is that when I talk about people being good clubhouse guys, to me that means that they hang out with everyone. They kind of build bridges between different groups because a lot of clubhouses can be stratified along racial lines or background, college, high school, that sort of deal. a guy that makes it his point to kind of talk to everybody in the clubhouse and have a relationship with everybody in the clubhouse being uh one of the high the highest or one of the highest paid uh position players in the in the uh in the in the clubhouse will give him gravitas and i think will make it easier for him to transition to a new team um and i think he will be a leader on that

team um and uh if you just do the math, it says that in his last year, which everyone's so concerned about, his seventh year, in his last year he'll be a 1.5 win DH type, half in the field, half not. Maybe Cano-ish, where he's still a good hitter, but he's hurt or he plays DH some days. And it says they're paid $8 million per win. So I don't know. It seems kind of ridiculous because of his age and seven years, but the numbers say it was a fine deal. What's interesting to me is I know there were some reports about the Rangers prospects in the fall league being among the more impressive groups of players.

And I think with the lost minor league season in 2020, there is a possibility that a bunch of guys that would have popped a year ago didn't necessarily pop that much this year. And seeing them in a setting like the fall league could be a way of opening our eyes to... Who are we talking about here? Because I know white uh was their guy and he was he won the best pitcher uh of the year but um that's uh uh the the the normal size man is a giant in the land of yeah you get it um continue i don't know i watched white and i i wouldn't say that um i'm'm telling everybody to go at him.

Maybe he can be a good depth piece for them, but he didn't pop in my eyes. So what were some other names from the Fall League that was on the hitting side? Yeah, Justin Foscue and Ezekiel Duran, I think were the other two that kind of stood out to a few different people out there. Foscue's an outfielder, right? I think they drafted him as an infielder. They might be playing him in the outfield. He's been hurt a little bit too during the minor league season,

so I think that was a big deal. Just to get those extra reps. Ezekiel Duran, 22, listed as a second baseman, 50 future value on fan graphs with good raw power and issues with hit tool. Yeah, he's got high strikeout rates. But good

batting averages, decent power, good speed, and has been playing third base and second base. Well, he's blocked now. Yeah, well, and that's the thing.

You've got these guys that are probably going to move off the infield to the outfield because they don't have a lot of outfield prospects knocking on the door. They don't have a lot of outfielders locked in at the big league level, so that's a fine problem. He has some speed. Maybe they can try Durant and Senna. They're looking for something in Senna. And Senna is a hard place to sign a free agent.

Yeah, I think Leote gets a shot in 2022 because he had a good enough year at AAA to see how he fares, but certainly no guarantees based on what's happened with him and his previous opportunities at the big league level. But then you add Josh Young, not in the fall league,

but their best prospect. He's big league ready this year and they're really excited and i i think i think they're really excited about it about young and i think you know he's basically the guy in pencil so i think you know maybe solak starts and duran and foscue and even aramid adolis garcia i would say that they're all on the hot seat you know they're all potential left fielders along with willie calhoun you know that's it's a group that may only produce one or two uh starters for the r. And it's a group that people are really excited about, but you have to be honest and look at this depth chart and realize, you know, Solak,

kinder, Falefa, Calhoun, you know, Adolis Garcia, all those guys. And then their top prospects, you know,

they're going to produce one or two starters. Yeah. Yanni Hernandez. I think they're going to add. Yeah. starters yeah yanni hernandez i think they're going to add yeah right and we were excited about yanni hernandez and um to some extent uh pozo but uh what like what how are you what are you going to do you know i think that they'll just be guys that come up when guys are injured um for the for the short term and then guys who have i i i i wouldn't, I wouldn't be surprised if Billy McKinney didn't make the opening day roster.

And right now he's the fan graph starter in left field. It makes sense because McKinney has bounced around and he's been targeted and picked up and claimed by mostly good organizations more recently. So there's something there, especially like barrel rate. I've, I've seen him play enough to understand like why teams are interested. I don't know if he'll be anything more than a,

on the roster, off the roster sort of player, but you take the shot on a guy like that. If you're in their position, you have, you know, 200 plate appearances in the first half of the season that are up for grabs. And I think that fairly describes what the Rangers are looking at,

but you have young, you have Jack lighter and Cole win on the pitching side. I think I took Cole win in that draft and hold. They, I was in a few weeks ago in the 46th round 47th round, because if you start looking at the rotation, right, you add John gray,

they probably are going to add one more starter, Taylor Hearn, Dane Dunning, AJ, Alexi, Spencer Howard out of Hearn, Dunning, Alexie, and Howard, I think two of those guys stick in the rotation. I think it's probably Dunning and Howard.

They get the longest looks there. I could see Hearn and Alexie being up and down or even bullpen guys. I think they're going to sign another starter. Yeah, I think you want Alexie, Otto, Allard. I think you want all those guys out of your rotation as your six and seven guys. Those are depth guys for sure, but I think Leiter and Wynn might be in this rotation by midsummer. Especially if they go with either Rich Hilliant, either an older guy just to fill innings, or if they take a shot at someone like Carlos Rodon and throw him in that rotation,

then who better to stand in for an injured Carlos Rodon than Jack Leiter? You know what I mean? If your team is going well. If not, then you call up Glenn Otto again. Yeah. So you have a few depth guys that can be the glue guys until your younger pitchers are ready. But they're getting close. I mean, kudos to them. can be the glue guys until you're younger pitchers are ready but they're getting close it's i mean

like kudos to them like just a couple signings you kind of you start to look at this team differently you know what i mean just like just pushing down all those guys by putting gray at the top and pushing pushing solak from a oh he's definitely into a you know if he pops we'll use him if not he can be utility you know what i mean uh like that changes a lot of your the way you look at this team you know now uh you can kind of imagine especially if they have one or two more big signings in them you can kind of imagine like a pathway to to making it work where you're like well the relief squad isn't amazing but it does have jonathan hernandez and jonathan mccurk in it right those guys were really, really good when they were healthy.

So depending on when they get healthy, if they push some of those guys like Patton and Spores down a couple rungs, then all of a sudden even the bullpen could be good. Is this a good signing, John Gray? Four for 56? I mean, I think either on this show or maybe it was on the athletic baseball show, I had this thought that maybe John Gray is a lot like Lance Lynn was a few years ago,

and then he just had to deal with Colorado his entire career. Because when Lance Lynn went to Texas a few years ago as a free agent, no one was that excited about that. It was just like, oh, it's just innings. This is a rebuilding team. Got to get innings somewhere. How good is John Gray going to be? How much has he lost since he entered the league

and how excited should we be about him from a fantasy perspective getting a chance to be in at least a neutral environment if not a slightly pitcher-friendly one? Well, you know, the stuff numbers are going to be worse for him because Coors actually changes your stuff numbers,

actually changes the shape of your pitches. But a 96 Stuff Plus is interesting because he has the type of fastball that doesn't get changed by Coors. That's why he was an effective Coors pitcher, I think, because he has this weird foreseeing fastball that doesn't really have great ride or great sink, but it's kind of in between. And if you actually look at it, I wrote a piece about this, like the course pitchers that have done well all have the same fastball. They have the John Gray fastball, Marquez, Senzatella, you know, all those guys have the same fastball. And the problem for me is,

I think that the biggest upside for him, so his curveball is going to, did get affected. And so I think his curveball is going to be average. So now you're going to talk about a guy who has like 110, 115 stuff plus slider, right? A really good slider. Then you're going to talk, he's going to have like a hundred curveball, right? Because it's been like 90, 95, but that's because at home it's like an 85 and on the road, it's like a hundred and 105. So I'm going to give him a hundred. I'm going to give him an average curve ball, a really good slider. I don't think this fastball actually has that much potential in it because it's been, and I think that changing someone's fastball is one of the hardest things to do because you're, what are you, what are you going to change a guy's arm slot at this age no you're not going to do that so the only thing i

could see is like maybe he comes in like it's a sinker now you know or it's a totally different pitch now so there's a possibility there that the fastball could change but i think it won't so i think he's basically an average pitcher right so 456 for an average pitcher it's okay but the four right yeah well the problem i have looking at what he was doing this year look at his location for his four seamer you just can't throw your four seamer it's it's a fried egg with the yolk in the middle of the strike zone like you that's just that's that looks like a non-location strategy. Yeah, I don't know what that's about. Is that him getting back into counts?

Is that all, you know, because it's a poor count and he's trying to get back in? That's possible, right? Falling behind, you know, missing with breaking stuff. And I think, you know, your point about the secondaries too, how much more can he trust his curveball and or his change up if he has better command of those pitches he's basically been a two-pitch guy who has four pitches but how much of that was actually the result of colorado preventing him from getting to those options

more consistently yeah i just you know when you get a hitter out of Colorado, a lot of times they seem undervalued. We've talked about how there's the Coors effect, you know, away from home and all that deal. And so I see it when you're getting a former Coors hitter, but I don't think we've had the same effect where you get a pitcher who was in Colorado and he's immediately great when you take him out. Yeah. Part of that is their inability to have and find good pitching in the first place. Like, I know there's a chicken and egg thing. Like, are the pitchers not good because the park or are they, I actually argue that some of the issues are that they don't have very good pitchers most of the time. I mean, I mean, also, Gray is better than Chatwood, right? Chatwood was the biggest recent example,

but Chatwood had really poor command always. Gray doesn't have that problem. Yeah, I've been looking at Lance Lynn before he went to Texas, had the miserable ratios year split between the Twins and the Yankees in 2018. That first year in Texas, a.367 ERA and a.122 whip.

That felt like, hey, he bounced back to his St. Louis levels, this is as good as it gets, and then he unlocked something and got to the 2020 and 2021 version of Lin. More four-seamers for sure. Do you think Gray could be a high threes ERA guy with a.120s whip like Lin was in 2019? Is that a fair sort of upside comparison? Yeah. I don't want to expect more than that what one of the things that lynn showed uh was a pop in in velo right yeah picked up some

velo uh gray was up uh off of 2020 he was at 94.9 but uh you know peak gray 2017-2019 was 96 average. So I don't know. Yeah, I think just getting him out, the steamer projection, I think it's been updated, actually still has a 430 ERA for him because the home run rate is high for gray, and home runs aren't necessarily augmented by cores. Yeah, they don't get spiked as much as you think they would even though offense goes

through the roof. But I suppose the idea is we paid for... It's sort of what we say you should do in fantasy which is the idea is we paid for we paid the price for an average starting pitcher. I guess that's true these days, right?

$15 million a year. Yeah. Pitching market's been pretty hot. We paid the price for an average starting pitcher, and we gave the extra year because of the upside. So we think there's a little bit more here than average, and that's why we paid a little bit extra. It's an intriguing bet for sure just

because there's so many years of disappointment but expectations were really high i think people thought that john gray was going to be the best pitcher the rockies ever drafted when they got him and maybe he actually is like i'd it's possible like i'd have to look a little more closely but it's not a rich enough history to think that it's a ridiculous claim. Well, yeah. And they traded for him. uh,

where did I get Marquez? Rays. I think the Rays might've gotten from someone too. I might've been twice traded. I got to look into that, that, that I'm not sure about. Uh,

you mentioned it earlier, Cole Calhoun also going to the Rangers. So yeah, Cole and Willie Calhoun now finally in the same lineup, both Calhouns together. Let's talk about the Blue Jays for a minute. They signed Kevin Gossman to a five-year $110 million contract. So big deal for Gossman. Again, the pitching market has been hot. This comes after they extended Jose Barrios. They extended Barrios for seven years at $131 million. Barrios, I believe, was set to become a free agent after 2022. So he had one year left.

I love that deal. I think especially in light of the John Gray deal, right? Yeah. Doesn't that make the Barrios deal seem awesome? Yes, it does. You paid $5 million more a year. You've had more years, but you've got a much better pitcher. Yeah.

I mean, in Barrios, I think he's long been a favorite of me. He's a few years younger than Gray, so that factors in. But I just think it's more finesse in that arsenal. It's not just overpowering stuff when he's good. It's a good mix of pitches. I think there's still room for some growth. We'd like to see a fourth pitch or even a more consistent use of the changeup just to get to the three more often.

But I actually like that extension quite a bit. I was surprised they went out and got Gossman. Maybe I just didn't have a good feel for what the Blue Jays were going to do with money. They're one of those teams that always has money to spend and doesn't necessarily go out and spend it. What do you think about Gossman on a deal like this for them, especially in bringing him back into the AL East where I realize he's not necessarily the exact same pitcher now that he was a few years ago in Baltimore, but this actually gave me some concerns in terms of fit. I don't know how I feel about this pitcher on this team in that division. So I got the Savant Park Factors up. And I think the reason why became very clear to me why I have a different idea of Rogers Center than maybe the truth. It has a 98 overall park factor, and it's in the blue for everything except for one thing, which I think you can guess.

Homers. Homers. Yeah. So, you know, it suppresses doubles. It suppresses hits. But it augments homers by 15%. Giants still depress homers by 25%. So I think that's relevant for Gossman.

He's going closer back towards being in Camden. I mean, what's Camden? 127 for homers. I mean, that's a level up. And then, of course, for runs overall, it's the fourth most hitter-friendly park in baseball. But he's got a pitch there, too. I don't know.

And the other thing that is interesting is they don't seem to be afraid of two-pitch guys. I mean, they went and got Ray. They might still be in on Ray. And they went and got Gossman. And Berrios is, you know, like a two and a half guy. I mean, he has that change up, but he doesn't, he uses mostly the curveball. And it's, I think it's fine. You know, two pitch guys in today's environment have been getting the strikeouts and they're not as required to go as deep into games as they used to maybe so that's a that's a benefit of having more pitches they took

the bet with hunjan ryu on on many pitches and it's been fine but uh maybe they're looking they think aces are made by uh plus pitches elite pitches single, like Gossman's splitter and Ray's slider and so on. Yeah, I just, I don't know. I don't know why I didn't expect them to be in on Gossman specifically. That one just caught me off guard. It's probably in the wake of the Barrios extension. I thought, yeah, they're probably pretty comfortable with their pitching, but at the same time,

they've got a lot of cost-controlled hitters for a little while. Take advantage of that while you can. Spend up on the pitching now. Cover over those flaws and make a run at it. I like it from the standpoint of they're being aggressive and they're definitely better with Gossman than they are without him. There's no argument there. I'm not trying to say he's not good. Because now you're Gossman, Barrios, Ryu, Manoa, and you could probably get that extra depth guy.

I think they probably have one more older guy in them. I think they probably do. It would make sense to then bump Stripling into his more customary six-starter role, maybe one more reliever too. They added Yemi Garcia. Yeah, the Yemi Garcia signing is good for me. Romano, by the way,

Pitching Plus beats Projections for Relievers, so mostly I've been doing, in my early drafts, just drafting by Pitching Plus and Roll, and Romano has been popping in my drafts as undervalued that I'm already in. I've already done two drafts.

I'm an addict. But Yumi, I think, is a really good signing as I think insurance basically I don't think he's the closer I think Romano's still the closer I think Yemi's probably the setup guy and Merriweather is the guy they go to if

both those guys crap out so those are but I think those three are very exciting especially when you throw in Simber and possibly Boberkier Richards as the funk. So you've got both the funk and the power. What I'm really curious to see, too, with the Blue Jays, and we'll spend more time talking about this on a future episode,

is losing Marcus Simeon, do they rely on Cap and Biggio to be their primary second baseman? Do they go into free agency and find someone else to fill that void? How much can they look at their offense and say, you know, we barely had George Springer in the regular season in 2021. So we're going to get that production back from a guy in the outfield. And we're okay with going a little cheaper at second base because we're going to be fine offensively. I could see them making that argument, especially pushing these resources into the rotation and the bullpen the way they have so far you know what might be a really a fun deal for them is kyle seager on a on a short-term deal i mean they're looking for a

third baseman or a second baseman right i mean the big deal would be chris bryant but maybe they don't want to spend like that um you know cheap deal would be just papering over the position with Matt Duffy or Travis Shaw or Jake Lange. You could try that again. But I think Kyle Seager wouldn't cost much and would be an actual real starter at third for them. I think it's a at third for them. So it's a, I think it's a decent name for them.

Yeah. I think it's maybe like on the, the backup list at least as a, what do you do if you either can't trade for someone you like, or if you miss out on, on a more pricey option that you want to have instead, but you're right. They do have that option to go or sign or third,

you know, they have Mark Shapiro there. They could sign Cesar Hernandez. Well, Cesar Hernandez is a Phillies guy. Yeah. He didn't overlap shapiro yeah that's right but uh cesar hernandez uh is but i'm you know i'm looking at the free agents and this like this this flurry that we've gone through has really cleaned it up you know there's like all that's left are the guys who are going to get like minor league deals.

Other than Korea Story Seager and Baez, I think you're looking at, well, do we sign Freddy Galvez to be our third baseman for a year or Kyle Seager? I don't see them being in on Korea Story Seager, Baez. No, I don't think they're going to that level. it by as to me it just depends on what the market is for him i could see that maybe being the the surprise sort of move right you get a great defender you get a guy that on an offense i've said this about houston before too i think bias fits on teams that are kind of loaded offensively they get on base and don't strike out a lot because you can't if you put on a team like the yankees or a team that has like a 23 24 25

team k rate you're taking your problem and you're making it worse yeah i think you can absorb that better if you've got other and also if lineup diversity is a thing it's interesting to have a like a very disciplined lineup and then be like and also we have hobby bias yeah try to get this guy out in the bottom third of the lineup. Don't make a mistake. Don't make a single mistake down there. Yeah, I could see it if the market. I think the Baez and Bryant. I could see the Blue Jays watching the Baez and Bryant markets and being like,

if that's softer than people expect, we could jump in there and get ourselves a deal. And then Seager, to me, is a great sort of – I keep saying Rich Hill's name, but he's like the Rich Hill of offense kind of signing. Let's give Kyle Seager one year and $10 million. Or let's give Rich Hill one year and $10 million to be our third baseman. All right, that's a step too far. You know, be quiet. Yeah, that's enough of too far. That's enough, you know, be quiet.

Yeah, that's enough of that. Let's keep it moving. Let's go to Houston, where Justin Verlander has returned. One year, $25 million plus a player option for 2023. So I think it comes out to like two for 50 if we just assume that he'll pick that up. If it's better for him to do that, or if he thinks the market next winter is the better option, he can go test that out too. I think it's interesting because Verlander gets one for 25 with that option. Noah Syndergaard got one for 21 from the Angels.

If you're taking your pick between those two, and I realize Verlander's at a point in his career especially where the list of teams he wanted to pitch for is probably a lot shorter. Syndergaard might still be in the clearly I want the best offer, best situation to come back from TJ. Who do you like better in these circumstances coming off of the same injury? I know Verlander's older, but I think I take Verlander

because his health track record was better before the TJ. The one thing about Noah that was weird was he always was grabbing a hamstring and all those other things. You know, the one thing about Noah that was weird was he always was grabbing a hamstring and all those other things, you know what I mean? Verlander was pretty healthy before the TJ. So I know he had an oblique. I'm going to take Verlander.

And I think for the Astros, it's an amazing fit because having Verlander last year or McCullers would have been the difference in that world series, I think. Yeah. And I think we sometimes forget when a pitcher loses a year like this, just how good they were before surgery. Verlander was the lead of the elite.

Like he, if he had stayed healthy, he'd be getting a deal probably comparable to Scherzer. Like that is absolutely the type of contract he could get. If he comes back and has a year similar to Scherzer, he won't exercise that option. He'll get two for 80 or something next winter,

if that's what he wants. He could still get there pretty easily. It's interesting that he goes back to Houston, but I think it makes all the sense in the world. It gives them a lot of stability. They have the same kind of uncertainty around Lance McCullers and his health that the Mets have with DeGrom. Not to say that McCullers' value is anywhere close to DeGrom's, but now you feel a lot better about what you have coming back with Verlander. High trust level, too. Had the surgery early enough to be further removed from it when spring training removes, then a lot of guys will be.

Had the surgery early enough to be further removed from it when spring training removes, then a lot of guys will be. So I think that also gives me that little extra bit of confidence that he's going to come back and be most of the guy that he was pre-surgery in 2022. Yeah, but I'm looking at this Astros team, and they have a Carlos Correa-sized hole in it. I mean, they need some offense somewhere, right? This team right now, it just lost its luster because

you know they they moved on from george springer and center and so myers is looked okay but he also he uh he hurt his rotator cuff you know he had surgery on that so you're gonna open up the season with chas mccormick in center and j Pena at short and Yuli Gurriel at first and Martin Maldonado at catcher like that those are legitimate hole like those are holes right Gurriel's close to not being a hole but he's like average at best right so then that start to look like a kind of a bad offense I think they need to I think they need to sign one of the big shortstops and maybe it's not going to be korea if they don't want to go to like 340 or whatever but i think they need to sign one of the shortstops yeah that's where my previous thoughts about baez fitting in really well come from i

think he'd be an option for them if they didn't want to go to the top of the free agent list it shortstop but i mean jordan jordan's a legitimately elite hitter kyle tucker has risen to that level bregman's been there before altuve bounced back i think bregman how much of his struggles this season were the result of the wrist injury that he had surgery for right i mean what does he bounce back to that's a huge question for us fantasy wise but also just for the astros because if he's pre-2020 bregman, that's a massive lift. That's a guy they haven't really had at that level in a while. So if you get him back, that changes a lot about how this lineup looks.

But I agree with you. I think they're one good regular bat short of where they usually are. Could you spend the money at third and get Bryant? That's an interesting thought. I don't know if I would want to go down that path with Bregman at this stage. I mean, he's only 27. He turns 28 in March. So you could maybe do it for a year or two.

But how long do you want to stick with that plan? To me, I hate to get tied up over years and stuff like that. And I haven't been, I think in my analysis of these other, other deals, but to me, the bias matters so much on years because he has really poor plate discipline. And at one point that it's going to, it's going to fall apart on him because he just won't make contact on anything

outside of the zone. He'll swing it too many things outside of the zone. Uh, and I think it's a very complicated swing. Uh, I just, um, uh, maybe, many things outside of the zone uh and i think it's a very complicated swing uh i just um maybe maybe they'll surprise us and get story you know where it's not the top of the market but it's not the bot it's not the you know the worst of the of the big short stops i actually like that fit quite a bit too i mean i know there's some some swing and miss concerns with story it's not quite the same level as uh as bias not quite i and i think he'll age

reasonably well but if you think about the sim like if simeon got seven for 175 is story getting that many years or that much money coming off the year he just had and how much are they worried about the declining arm strength and story, which is definitely a thing. Right, because moving him to second base, you're going to get Altuve for a while yet. That's not necessarily a great option. Maybe you could throw him in left field eventually. That would be an option too.

But yeah, I could see Story maybe being the higher end of what they would do if they don't keep Correa. I don't think they're keeping Correa, though. I think Correa's gone. I get the sense he's're keeping Correa, though. I think Correa's gone. I get the sense he's Detroit, New York, somewhere. This team does seem built up where maybe they could have one really expensive player. Who is their one really expensive player otherwise?

Verlander. Yeah, on an AAV level, it's Verlander. But otherwise, they don't really have anyone. Right, I don't see a really expensive team. Maybe this was all set up so that Correa was the one we keep. I mean, Bregman and Antubia did sign extensions, but those weren't the type of extension that Carlos Correa wants. Yeah. Hector Neris added to the bullpen.

Two for 17 for Neris. Kendall Graveman added to the bullpen two for 17 for narris kendall graveman going to the white socks so basically swapping out graveman swapping in narris nice for narris to get out of philadelphia and he has a 105 stuff plus presley has a 122 stuff plus so i think presley is still is not really uh you know feeling the heat from Neris. But Neris and Stanek and Maton, I think that's a fine bullpen. I'm into that bullpen, but I do think Presley is the easy closer there. Let's get to the Angels for a moment. I mentioned Cinderguard kind of as a comparison for Verlander. One for 21.

Angels give up a draft pick for one year of Cindergarts since he, of course, got that qualifying offer from the Mets. They added Aaron Loop, two for 17 for him, to the bullpen. Best stuff plus among free agent relievers. I would not have guessed that. You could have given me 10 guesses, and I would not have guessed Aaron Loop. So a much-needed addition to the bullpen.

We'll see what they do with Rysel Iglesias and how that plays out. But okay, so the Angels are at least trying to the bullpen. We'll see what they do with Rysel Iglesias and how that plays out. But okay, so the Angels are at least trying to fix their flaws. They added Michael Lorenzen for a one-year $7 million deal. I saw the tweet from Robert Murray that they are trying him as a starter. I mean, we'll see if that actually sticks. I think he's made five starts in the last like six years combined. Well, that's how Lorenzen was marketing himself, yeah.

Yeah, so if it doesn't work, then of course he goes to the bullpen and you got one more arm in the late innings but uh what do you make of what they've done so far is this sort of shopping in the bargain bin they get an incomplete i mean i love noah synergard otani synergard is an awesome one too i think uh in the rotation that changes a lot i. I don't think they've had as good a number two or as good two pitchers atop their rotation in this whole time. So I think that's a good move by them. But there's so much incomplete left. I mean, is Tyler Wade their starting shortstop or David Fletcher? And if David Fletcher's their starting shortstop, who's their starting second baseman?

And right now, I think in the outfield, it's Trout Marsh-Adele, which is something we've been asking for for a while, but it's also very high variance. They've still got Upton, so I guess that's a fan graphs thing. I think if you have Upton, you're actually Upton, Trout, Marcia Dell. Well,

something like that. In some capacity. Yeah. You're, but that's four. It's four good outfielders, but there's also like a real collapse percentage there where like two of them aren't major leaguers.

I'd take my chances on that group though. I mean, you can really add. That's, that's complete. So the outfield is complete. And the next move they make is a shortstop? It's got to be a middle infielder. Yeah.

Yeah, because you're going to play Fletcher most likely at one of those spots. Healthy Rendon, of course, comes back. So you've got Rendon and Walsh on the corners. Here's a good spot for story, too, because if you sign him as a shortstop and then you think the arm strength is a problem, you can move him over to second. Yeah, they have that flexibility a bit more. I think that does make sense.

I think he'd be among the players that they should definitely consider. I think that's their clearest need from a position player perspective. I think Max Stassi is a little underrated, so I like that he's kind of got catcher to himself, health permitting. I actually like the outfield a little more than you do because i think we saw dell lower the k rate last year marsh was marsh looked really good for a bit and marsh was coming off shoulder surgery so i think having a normal off season for him a healthier off season he can enter 2022 and take a pretty big step

forward this year so really it comes down to they need you doing? Well, they need a reliever, a middle infielder. Yeah, they need a reliever, a middle infielder, and they need what everyone else needs, which is kind of annoying, that depth starting pitcher. Rich Hill? Anyway, I'm banging the drum for Rich Hill. I definitely am. I also think Alex Cobb, you know, the Giants were in on him.

Alex Cobb is here. But the reason I just want to take a little bit of segue here. We've said this now about every team that we've talked about, right? That they could use a depth starter. That's why the Rich Hill thing became a joke, right? The list is running out. Max Scherzer is gone. Clayton Kershaw, I think, yeah, maybe sign him.

I think it's all about what you see in the medicals. I think that he'll be a late sign because people will want to see him throwing again, right? So I don't think Clayton Kershaw is like something that you see in the next couple of days. Then there's Rich Hill. Kevin Gossman, signed. Marcus Stroman, that's not like a depth signing that's a big money, Corey Kluber signed Andrew Haney signed, I'm going down

Stuff Plus by the way so Max Scherzer's number one free agent Stuff Plus, he just signed Clayton Kershaw I think is a big question mark Rich Hill is third, Kevin Gossman signed, Marcus Stroman's a big deal Corey Kluber signed, Andrew Haney signed Anthony Discofani signed.

Now we're getting into the place where league average stuff or worse, and these guys are available. But how excited are you about the following crew? Because this is what we're talking about for the Angels and the Mets and everybody. Drew Smiley. Danny Duffy. Chris Archer. Alex Cobb.

Cole Stewart. Michael Waka signed. Alex Woods signed. Mike Fultineavich, Willie Peralta, Brad Peacock, John Gray signed, Corey Oswald, Tyler Anderson. He's going to get a two-year deal because of what I'm telling you right now. You know what I mean? He's not even going to be a one-year depth deal. Zach Greiny to the angels might be fun yeah well i think stroman actually makes sense they have money plenty of money to

spend a lot of money come off the books yeah i mean look at what they i mean poo holes among other things off the books and even when you factor in some of the raises and some guys getting a little more expensive like rendon's free agent deal that he signed, it jumps up $8 million from 2021 to 2022. But there's a $70 million difference based on what Kotz has. Yeah, estimated 2021 payroll final is $182. Estimated right now is $163. And they could probably go right up to $200, I think.

Yeah, and they don't have a bunch of arbitration raise guys in there either so they can spend like they and they could they could get stroman and i think stroman fits really well if you have the injury risk of cinder guard and i would still say otani carries above average injury risk not only as a two-way player but because he just had tommy john a couple years, you need that sort of stabilizing presence. I think Stroman fits exceptionally well for them just based on who their one and two are right now. All right, so we're building the Angels, and we're going to sign Marcus Stroman.

We're going to sign Rysel Iglesias, and we're going to sign Trevor Story. Yep, and Tyler Anderson. And Tyler Anderson. That's going to cost us $15,000, $10,000, $25,000, $35,000 and then Story. That's going to cost us $60 million, dude. We just spent the money that they were spending last year. Really? $60 million plus the raises that are on the sheet right now. Yeah, it's about it's about

the same they run top five payrolls and they're competitive well they run top five payrolls sometimes when they're not competitive too well by roster resource if we added 60 million they would be at 220 that's I'm looking at COTS. They'd have them at $171,000. Maybe the arbitration numbers aren't tacked on for 2022 yet. Actually, the estimated luxury tax number is $172,000 right now. So if we gave them $260,000, they'd go to $230,000. I don't know.

I don't know. I don't know. I think they'll spend like $30,000 or $40,000,000, which means in this case, we have to choose between a middle infielder and a starter. I think you need the middle infielder a little bit more at this point. Yeah, you do. That offense, I think, really needs it.

So the more budget plan is story Rich Hill. Story, Rich Hill. The reliever stuff plus market goes Aaron Loop, Rysell Iglesias, Jimmy Nelson, Colin McHugh. It's not very good. Daniel Hudson? Okay, maybe.

Yeah, because you could have him close. I think Hudson would be a guy they would go get if they don't bring back Iglesias. Yeah, yeah. I'm doing the budget version. The budget version is Hudson or Knievel, maybe. Okay. Like basically try to sign a guy that you think can close but not at closer prices. So if we did Story, Hudson, and Hill, we would be spending about $30 to $35 million.

And that would get them right below the luxury tax. Well, that might be very important to them right now. But they have to make more moves. Incomplete is an absolute fair grade right now for the Angels because there's just still a bunch of holes that need to be filled there. Some other signings. We're going to try to run through a lot of these a little faster than the first cluster that we did.

You know, shut up. No, I'm not. That wasn't code. That was just saying these are less interesting by comparison. Erod goes to the Tigers. Five for 77. So, okay. It's an incomplete for the Tigers because we know they're players for one of the shortstops,

most likely Carlos Correa. It would make a lot of sense to start adding. They got young pitching there already. You tack Erod into the Mize, Scooble, Manning trio. Eventually, you get Turnbull back. Okay, I can start to get a little excited about them. And of course, they've got a lot of young players.

Non-tender Matt Boyd is the newest news. That's the word. Well, they've got Riley Green knocking on the door. They've got Spencer Torkelson knocking on the door. Riley Green strikes out a little bit too much for my liking, but he otherwise is a very exciting young bat. Yeah, so you've got three prospects. Tork is ready.

And I thought in the Arizona Fall League, I bet you that he's the opening day first baseman. It's a pretty nice lift to start putting a few of those guys in the mix. So they're going to get better with that group of position players. Erod, I thought, was really good even before what he did in the postseason. So I think he makes sense for them. Getting out of Boston as a lefty especially, that might actually be a little bit of an upgrade for him park-wise.

So maybe he's a little more stable for us for the next couple of years. I think that's a good thing too. Rodriguez, five-year, 77, or gray, four-year, 56. I would have taken Rodriguez. I think, yeah, I guess. I don't think there's as much upside to Unlock. You know what I mean? He's not a great stuff guy.

But I also think that he was probably the unluckiest of his career last year. So why not buy a guy who's basically a true talent 4.0 ERA guy? I think that's fair. But I would say whatever he's lost in terms of run support and good team context that way, I think he at least made it back, if not more, by going to a more pitcher-friendly environment. Yeah, it's a nice projection.

382 ERA 1.25 whip is a really good, I would say, number two in AL only. And then probably for 15-team mixed leagues is more like a number four. Yep. A four if you've got a strong rotation, maybe a three if you wait a little bit on pitching would be the way I would label him. And probably useful for teams that bet on a sale at the top because I do think Rodriguez has had some injury issues,

but it's mostly not been in the arm. So I like him for innings this year. Yeah, a lot of knee issues. Going into 140s in the last couple of NFBC drafts, 140 overall range, so 15 teamers. It's about the 10th round or so if you're looking for him. You mentioned Steven Matz earlier, 4 for 44. The thing that works for me, though, with Matz

is that it's an extremely pitcher-friendly environment. St. Louis is a great place to pitch. He's got a great defense behind him. I know. I know someone's going to unearth some tweet or something where I was negative about Matz, and he's going to have great numbers in St. Louis. But my point is just like I think you could buy so many different pitchers on the free agent market, and they have great numbers in St. Louis.

In fact, I think one of the things that St. Louis has not figured out, that the Giants have figured out, is that you should always just get whoever falls in the pitching market. Yeah. Yeah, four for 44. I mean, it's fine. It could be fine. I'm on your side of this one where i don't

it'll look good he'll be a fine in fantasy i just don't yeah i don't think he's a very good pitcher i just think you know he's better than like the dakota hudson's of the world and yes they should make deals like this but i don't think that you know four for 44 strikes me as the the high end of the filler market right right well it comes Well, it comes back to the John Gray question. Would you have just paid a little extra to get John Gray? Yes, I would have said. I would have paid. Yes, that's what I don't like about it.

I would have gone four for 60 on John Gray and outbid the Rangers. Or less for somebody else, right? Right. I don't like where it is. I would have paid more for somebody with more upside or I would have paid less. I would have gotten Alex Cobb for like one and eight

or one and 10 or whatever he's going to sign for rather than lock this guy in for four years. Yeah, I got Sierra on my dashboard for fan graphs. John Gray has four seasons even pitching in Colorado with Sierra's under four, which is surprising. The first one I think was like a partial season. Steven Matz only has two seasons like that. And they both have poor fastball shapes but uh matt's has been

worse and uh he's already done the work that's what i don't like is that he did the work to shape his pitches and get the most out of what he could out of his arsenal and that was last year yeah so it's not like i look at what he did last year i'm like oh he should no i got nothing left for matt's like yeah he did everything that i said you oh he should no i got nothing left for mats like yeah he did everything that i said you know he thought he could do and he was useful uh i don't you know with gray there's a little bit more like oh what if the fastball's changed shape this way or that way or what if he added a sinker or something or what if he just threw the curveball and slider a ton so i think my issue with the mat signing also is just what the giants were able to do and maybe

these guys wanted to stay in san francisco and the Giants got slightly better deals. But everybody would want to sign in St. Louis too, dude. Every pitcher would love to sign in St. Louis. That's probably why he took St. Louis over the Mets in the last minute. Well, so Alex Wood got two years, and I think it's north of $10 million per year. I don't think I saw the final terms there. So he goes back to the Giants. Anthony Discofani gets three for $36 to stay with the Giants.

And then Brandon Belt accepted the qualifying offer. You and I got together for a beer the Friday before Thanksgiving. We were laughing because Logan Webb on that day was the only starter on the Giants' depth chart. Yeah, I think I'd mentioned that I had picked up a share of Palumbo in a really deep draft because Palumbo, by stuff, looked pretty good in 2020. And then also they just had nobody else, and Palumbo was like the second starting pitcher that day.

Now Palumbo's all the way down to fifth. I assume he'll be like the sixth or seventh starter by the time the season starts. Yeah, I think that's a fair sort of assessment. My question for you is with both Alex Wood and Anthony Descafani jumping up in terms of price, they're not ridiculous, but they're just outside the top 200 in terms of their early 80Ps, kind of in that $250 range, depending on who's in the room with you. 80 piece, kind of in that two to 250 range, depending on who's in the room with you. Are you in on either or both of those guys in that range, considering where they pitch,

what you've seen from them in San Francisco? Are they good at that price? Are they break even at that price? Where do you fall on them? I still think it's a pretty good spot. I mean, what are some of the other pitches around them? Because I feel like the floor for those guys is they're absolutely useful in like 70% of the weekly, because you're talking like weekly lineup situation, right? They're going to be like the very, they're going to be in the top 10 or 20 pitchers some weeks in weekly lineups. You know what I mean yeah well they have like two games against like the rockies and the padres at home yeah you won't throw them on the road against the dodgers you won't throw them in colorado but otherwise 75 of these this season

they they're like top 50 type pitchers they live right now in the Cal Quantrill, Patrick Sandoval, Jordan Montgomery. And those guys you won't play all the time either, except it'll be harder to figure out exactly when to play them. Quantrill's probably close to that 75% range because of the AL Central. And because he's in Cleveland. But in some ways um and he might have some more upside like discafani and wood are defined creatures at this point you know i'm not saying that there's something to unlock and there's another level

like i think they are who they are they can only go down because of fastball velo so quantrell has a little bit more upside so maybe i I take Quantrill over those guys, but they absolutely belong where they are. And I think they're good picks compared to most of the names he said. And then Brandon Belt accepting that qualifying offer on the hitting side, that made all the sense in the world. I don't think free agency was going to be that kind to him. It just isn't for a guy with A, that positional limitation and B B, his injury history especially. Two for 30 wasn't going to be out there, so one for 18 to stay in a place where he's had a lot of success makes a lot of sense, but it also leaves the Giants at a good spot too.

I just feel badly for his legacy, man. I've seen too many people still to this day on Twitter discussing his low batting average, the fact that he's never hit through the 30 home runs. I mean, maybe not among fantasy players or the Fangraphs types, but it's still a thing out there in the world that he's not a good hitter because his batting average is low. Here's a story where WRC plus tells a very different story he's been 26 better than league average uh as a hitter over

the course of his career and i think that tells the real story of brandon belt yeah brandon belt has been below a 100 wrc plus one time in his entire career and And it was a 98. It was a 98. It was fine. Like it was a good year. Yeah. He's been a much better offensive player than anybody looking at his batting average could possibly give him credit for. Moving on to the next cluster of moves. Avi Sayil Garcia to the Marlins.

We knew they were going to do something to ramp up that offense. Four for 53 for Avi. Good for him. I mean, he looked like a totally different guy going back to 2020. Completely changed his body. I think he held a lot of that change over into 2021. Had a great season with the Brewers. Goes into a more pitcher-friendly environment, but you're talking about a max-volume playing time guy who I think at least in NL-only leagues

and those types of formats like I'm definitely interested in. I'm a little less locked in in mixers. I think it'll probably be more good than bad price right now in that 180 overall range. Totally fine for a guy that should play as much as he's able to do so. That's in the

that's in the Conforto, Hunter Renfro, Robbie Grossman's a really interesting player. We'll get to him on a future episode, I'm sure. Jorge Soler, Adam Duvall. Those guys are all in that same range. What's interesting, too, from a real baseball perspective is that he's among a bunch of outfielders that have real-life baseball flaws.

And Conforto's the only one that kind of reaches my eye where I'm like I don't I don't know what his flaw is other than coming off of like not the not the greatest season you know but Garcia is has a little bit more in common with like a Duvall than people might realize because he doesn't strike out like Duvall and he doesn't have the terrible OBPs, but he does not have a good plate approach, really. And defensively, he's like a stat-cast god. He throws the ball in the top 15%. Max Exavilo is in the top 15%. He runs in the top 15%.

His roots are probably in the bottom 10% of the league. I mean, you must have seen this, where do you remember even in the postseason, there were a couple times where you're like, oh, no, no, no, no, no, no. The ball would find him, you know what I mean? And he would do ridiculous things. And you're just like, this guy is like a five-tool player.

Somebody said on Twitter, it was really funny, the worst five-tool player there is. It's an interesting thing. Someone has to be the worst five tool player. I don't want to, I don't, I'm not trying to be mean. These guys are all really good,

but there is a, there, he is less than the sum of his parts. You know, when you add up all the stat casts, you're like, Oh, this guy's amazing.

And then you're like, why did he, how did he miss that ball? NLDH could really help him. Yeah, and I think in the end of the deal it probably will. I think what's interesting is he's lumped together with all these guys who are non-tender, DFA, having trouble keeping their job type guys, for the most part, not Conforto.

Conforto's coming off a down year and is just being underdrafted. And he's probably better than them. I mean, he's locked into a job, if you're talking fantasy, right? But look at Hunter Renfro, or look at what Jorge Soler cost via trade, right? I mean, think about Adelise Garcia going a little bit earlier. That was my point, right. Yeah, these are not good baseball players, most of them.

But it's a volume game, and there's nothing that's going to keep him from playing every single day. Yeah, in terms of buying plate appearances, you're going to do well with Garcia next year. Probably the first time in his career to go past 601 i mean i think there are opportunities for him to do it in the past it was just a health thing but i think with the way he's changed his body i'm more confident in him staying healthy now than i would have been in the past at least a little you think he was just too big for himself? Yeah, I mean, I think when you have a frame like that, I think it lends itself to creating more problems, right?

Like you're putting more strain on your joints by being, I would assume, overweight for his, because he's a big guy, he's huge. Like when you see him standing on the field, he's a large human. Like a line guy. We've said this before, but he has, being more trim, I think he's much more likely to

stay healthy could just be wish casting i don't know but um i don't know i have more confidence in him this way the uh where do you what do you what do you what do you do you know the the the rumors are that they're they're gonna trade a starting pitcher and for me it's pablo lopez um because they just signed al contra to a an extension uh rogers is still on the minimum salary and i don't think elizier hernandez has much trade value uh to other teams uh so if you trade pablo lopez what are you looking for center fielder yeah i think that's your your first thing you want because at this point you're not expecting lewis brinson yeah i think i think it's anything harrison i think that's your first thing you want because at this point, you're not expecting Lewis Brinson to be that guy. I think it's Harrison.

I think it's gone. So I think you would rather De La Cruz and Sanchez had one position between the two of them. Yeah, they could platoon in a corner. That would work. Does it work by handedness? Yeah, De La Cruz is a righty and Jesus Sanchez is a lefty.

That's not a bad platoon, actually. That would be pretty good. And, of course, depth, so they'd play when Garcia was hurt or whatever. Right. Or if there was an LBH. Who are you trading for as a center fielder? What team?

Because Byron Buxton got an extension. He's staying in Minnesota. But the Orioles are not going to give up mullins for pablo lopez really no they would they'd want like max meyer and then something else like meyer and watson or you know something like real big uh maybe the miles could do that would you would you trade meyer and watson to get cedric Mullins? Who's Watson? Khalil Watson. Centerfielder? Shortstop.

Shortstop. Or shortstop. Fell to 16 in the draft, but, I mean, it was their first rounder. I mean, I think it depends on how much of a burn they're feeling to be competitive, right? You know? If they want to build it for the long i doubt they do that deal but but but who else is selling center fielders brian reynolds there you go okay now you're talking like that that i think is doable brian reynolds that would be an interesting trade

but a nice fit but also yeah but also what's weird about giving up babalopis for brian reynolds is like you're just giving up a major league piece for a major league piece. I think what you would actually do is trade Pablo Lopez to a contender that wants Lopez for a near center fielder. I know it's not going to be Brandon Marsh, but like that. Yeah, I guess that would be Atlanta probably fits that description because they have extra outfielders now. I suppose maybe on Marsh, right? Like it could be.

Actually, if you believe Justin Upton can still do something and you think Mike Trout's going to stay healthy and you want Adele to have a spot to himself and you think that Adele can play center if you need to. Yeah, you can go get your fourth outfielder in free agency. Yeah. I mean, now we're talking, I think. That's the kind of trade that would make more sense.

It's like a contender overpays a little bit for Lopez maybe, but feels like they really need that pitching. Yeah. I don't think the Braves really feel like they need that pitching. The Mets have bought it mostly. The Blue Jays have bought it and the Rays don't trade for the Red Sox. Would they trade for Paolo Lopez? Maybe. I don't know. I don't think so. We're running out of contenders here for this. Mariners? Wait a minute.

Everybody needed pitching like 45 minutes ago. Yeah, but they all want to do it cheap with money, I think. Right. What teams have something extra? Well, the Mets have a little bit of extra stuff they could possibly give up. They have bats. Yeah. Do they play center?

Well, no. They had that same same problem they didn't have anyone that could do it so padres grisham for lopez nah they're not they're not doing that i don't think but i think that it also illustrates the fact that like everyone's like oh yeah the marlins are gonna trade uh you know pitching for a bat and then you kind of try to drill down. You're like, really? And who's going to trade with them, and what are they going to give them? Yeah, a Brandon Marsh deal. I mean, I would actually like that for the Marlins. Oh, I would do it for the Marlins in a second.

I think the Angels might not do that. You may have to give something else if you're the Marlins to get a deal like that done. Sandy Alcantara extension, by the way, five for 56, buys out two years of free agency. I know you've liked Sandy for a long time, so I imagine you feel great for the Marlins having him there as long as possible. Seems team-friendly to me. And in fact, I would say that these extensions

that we've seen, a lot of them are team-friendly. I wonder... So I think Wander Franco did leave some money on the table. Um, uh, but one thing I would like to point out in respect to like Tatis and these,

the $300 million shortstops, Wander has not exhibited that type of power yet. You know, right. He's really good player in all regards, but in terms of like batted ball oomph, in terms of exit velocity, that sort of stuff,

hasn't really shown himself to be at the $300 million level. So maybe this $200 million level is perfect for him. Maybe that's just what the market reflects. What was the other extension? Buxton. I think that one is incredibly team-friendly. However, I didn't see the details before i tweeted about it because uh the this is one of those cases where the incentives are actually pretty intense and actually good yeah and he could he could get himself just with like plate appearances he's got about two and a half

million per season on there so that's another you know 15 million he can make just by being healthy and then he has mvp finishes in every season and he is of the type of quality where this isn't a pie in the sky thing this is like oh yeah buxton in a healthy season could put up seven eight nine war and be a finalist and if he's a the seventh in the MVP or something, he gets like $3 million. So now you're talking about like, no, we paid a baseline, but we gave really good incentives in there. And if he does, if he is healthy, he's going to still be paid, you know, something like $20 million in a season. He can make $20 million in a season if he's really good. And then he bakes in a sort of $10 to $15 million every season. I think the Buxton thing is interesting because in some ways with his plate skills profile,

there's a lot of Javier Baez in the how will he age as a hitter question, right? You know, a 25-ish percent K rate these last couple of years when things have been going well from a power perspective. He's only walking about 5% to 6% of the time in his better years more recently. So you look at that and you say, okay, that's probably not going to change much. He's had enough experience in the big leagues, over 1,700 plate appearances. This is largely who he is from a plate discipline perspective, but he's doing so much damage when he makes contact, and he's such a great defender in center field. take this chance all day long if you're minnesota i like that there's incentives

in there for him for staying healthy his track record unfortunately is like a mixture of the kind of chronic stuff but also it's bad luck stuff tacked on top of that right we talked about the collision in the outfield that was back at double double A. Outfield collisions, hit by pitches, balls off the end. I mean, like some of that stuff, there's no way to predict that. None. I don't think hammering a ball off your ankle and missing months because of that, that's not really your fault. That's just an accident.

It's an unfortunate thing that happens. So how much do you believe in Byron Buxton massive damage power hitter like how are you convinced by what we've seen kind of going back even as far as 2019 now he said a slug over 500 going back to 2019 is this really a 30 to 35 home run bat if we do see him stay healthy for at least 140 games over a season yeah and I think he he shows a little bit of the usefulness of max EV, max exit velocity as a raw power metric because he's always hit the ball really hard in the maxes. So even in 2016, he had a 111 max, which is over that 108 threshold.

2017, 111 max. It's gone up now. Last season was 116 max, but he's always had really good max EV, and the barrel rates finally sort of rose to meet it by finding a way to make that max power, make that max EV swing lifted a little bit better. In terms of barrel rates, it goes back to 2019 now, where he's had better than a double-digit barrel rate. And double-digit barrel rates are elite. So to me, the power, I believe in it.

And then the only one thing I wanted to add on top of this is his chase rate is not Bayesian. He actually chases the pitches outside the zone at a league average rate. So I think that he's an aggressive hitter that doesn't get to walk counts because he's swinging a lot but it's not swinging willy-nilly uh he actually does have a decent sense of the zone so i like i honestly think that he has an mvp season in him that i see that as it's still a possibility and so to sign a guy who could give you an MVP season

for $100 million, I think is, you got to do it. Yeah. I've been a Buxton truther for a few years now. There are more people on board now than there were a couple seasons ago. He's up to a 68 ADP. That's over just a couple drafts that were last week. He's burned so many people, though,

with the injuries over the past that you have definitely people in the room who are whatever the opposite is of a Buxton truther who will never own him because they're still mad about some season he tanked. Yeah, Buxton deniers, I guess they'd be. He was 9 for 10 as a base dealer in 2021 as well. So it's not like the power has made the speed just totally disappear. Like I'm with you. I mean, there's, I know it's not fair to just double up numbers from less than half a season and say that that's who he is, but that's a 40, 20 pace. How many guys can do that? That's a very short list of players. So I'm in on Buxton in the pick 50 to 75 range where he goes.

The specifics probably depend on the foundation. I like this for the twins. I hope he reaches all the incentives and maxes it out to whatever the highest possible total of that deal can be. And I'm glad he's staying in Minnesota, too, because it just seemed weird that he would be traded right now and end up having to get this sort of deal from somebody else. They have a really exciting outfield coming up with Larnak and Kirilov, I think. The infield is a little bit more of a question mark, but even with Miranda there, they have some youth and some exciting stuff. It's all about figuring out the starting pitching.

Josh Kalk has got to consider himself on the hot seat. He came over as a pitching guru from the Rays into that front office, and the pitching has been a problem. Yeah, you mentioned the Wander extension. I mean, 11 years, $182 million, not as far into his career as Tatis was getting that deal either. So there's that that has to be at least factored in a little bit too. But the Rays have been pretty busy. They've added Corey Kluber to the mix. One year, $8 million. They're so funny because they're like,

this is our playbook. Everyone knows it and we're just going to keep doing it and no one stops us. A lot of people are copying them and that's made it harder for them to get the $1 and $10 million. The first time they did that, it was like Charlie Morton, and everyone's like, oh, crap. Let's do what the Rays did. And now they have to get Corey Kluver. But Kluver was pretty good when he was in, and I've counted him out too many times too early. So he's the perfect kind of player that can maybe pitch them 50 or 100 innings early on and then a young guy takes over for him yeah and he's got more of the the deep arsenal approach as opposed to the yeah more change up lights up the radar gun so i i do like that just from uh

he's making some adjustments perspective uh no one ever no one ever throws stones at the rays for for the moves they make. No one's going to question one-year $8 million for a pitcher, especially in this market when you're seeing what multi-year guys have been getting. You heard me sort of list how ugly it gets right now. Them taking Kluber actually took a big chunk out of what's available. Well, and Michael Wac Walker, who was there, goes with high and bloom to Boston. He goes there and it's like,

well, look at what they got from Walker last year, 124 and two thirds innings of 505 ERA and a one 31 whip. I think Kluber is probably better than that. Like I was actually surprised that, that Walker went to Boston. Like, do you see him as a backend, like glue guy source of innings if you need it,

or do you think we're at the point in the career where we're finally doing the Michael Waka is a reliever thing? Yeah, I can't tell. Pitching Plus has always liked him better than his results. He shows good location. One thing that happened was he turfed the cutter, which is a poor pitch for him in this in you know the last sort of five to six appearances and in then and you know without the cutter he had like a 98 stuff plus so uh maybe they're making a bet on you know the post cutter version of waka um you know maybe and this is uh my my personal theory on him is that he's going to be just like a three-inning guy.

They are fine with him not throwing his cutter because they're like, fastball changeup, three innings, thank you very much. Yeah, maybe they'll use him. Maybe they'll use him the way they used Tanner Houck at times during the regular season this year and then let Houck just be a regular starter.

It could be a good recipe. And at the price, this is the lottery ticket portion of the schedule. Everyone is going to take a 1-6, 1-7, 1-8, even a 1-10, and put them in their starting rotation and hope it works out. And if it doesn't, it was just one year. It was just $10 million. Yeah. Pirates added.

Would they pay Cole Hamels to throw one bullpen that was pretty weird in hindsight pirates getting it on the fun too jose cantana gets a one year two million dollar deal to go to pittsburgh and yoshi satsugo who started to it seemed like unlock some things with the pirates goes back on a one yearyear, $4 million deal. The key for me with Setsugo, he can play a lot there. In Tampa Bay, it was a large side platoon role initially with the Dodgers for the brief time he was there. It was kind of like, how is he going to fit here as more than a bench piece, at least with Pittsburgh?

They can play him as much as he needs to be played based on performance. Pittsburgh, people like to make fun of what's going on there and what's happened, but this could come together really quickly because I love O'Neal Cruz and I love Brian Hayes, and when you have that on the left side of your infield and then you have competence like Brian Reynolds in center, and then I think Stallings behind the plate is pretty competent too

so you've got competent veterans in certain places, you've got the exciting stars in some places and you're starting to do some depth signings and do some small moves here and there I'm not saying that they're going to be good this year but I'm saying they could be good

sooner than people think. Yeah, Rowanze Contreras also. Yes, Contreras. We like Yahure, so that's two young pitchers we like on that staff, and they're just going to bubble up to the top. Nick Gonzalez, probably not far away. Henry Davis, probably not that far away. I see you're right.

Help is coming in Pittsburgh. Speaking of a former Pirate, briefly a Padre, Adam Frazier goes to Seattle in a trade. And I didn't expect him to be the guy he was in the first half of the season. Is he just kind of a plays everywhere sort of guy or is he their actual solution at second base? I don't know, man.

It's not super exciting. And it's a zero power kind of all contact thing that we're not doing that much in the game these days. But if it is part of a larger plan and he is the utility guy, like maybe a David Fletcher when you're using him best, then I kind of like it. You know what I mean? when you're using him best, then I kind of like it. You know what I mean? Like I think a guy who can, especially in light of this idea of lineup diversity, just having a guy like him that just could put the ball in play, sure.

And then you just put him wherever you need him, second base, outfield. Dylan Moore is still part of it. Or you sign Story and you push Frazier into the outfield mix or is the offensive platoon guy, the offensive utility guy. Yeah, just make Story a second baseman now. And if you lose J.P. Crawford to an injury, who's a great defender, then you can just play Story at short and shuffle everybody around and fill in at second. Yeah, I think the puns are going to be insufferable for this yeah frazier to seattle

but uh frazier story pairing is also kind of cool too because of frazier kind of mitigates some of story's problems you know in terms of making contact and stuff and then story is the much more uh impressive physical player yeah so. So there was your, their trade. Of course, Seattle is involved. I hope we get more. I hope we get a lot more moves.

If they surprise us with money, it's to me, it's a middle end fielder and a starting pitcher. So we've struggled to kind of figure out like where the starting pitchers are going to go. Like which one would they get? Who would they actually be after? Would they be in on Ray or possibly Stroman?

Yeah. Yeah, I could see that. Yeah. Definitely. Why not? I think they need it. You push Marcus Gonzalez to second, you take some of the pressure off of Gilbert.

And then you hope that your Kirby, some of your minor leaguers start bubbling up in the back. I think, yeah. The only reason I hesitated was I just don't know which one fits them better. Maybe, I don't know, Ray? I don't know. I kind of like Ray there a little bit more. Yeah. Yeah. I don't, you know, the infield defense is pretty good.

I guess Stroman would be fine there. But I think they could use someone. I don't see Stroman as popping to ace level upside. I think he's just a really solid 2-3 guy. Ray is popping to ace level upside i think he's just a really solid like two three guy you know so ray is interesting to them because he could if he if he remains on this burner he's on he has more upside he could be more of an ace and i think that's kind of what they need because marco gonzalez is kind of you know a number two with innings and stuff yeah yeah

he's more of a bulk guy and you could have gilbert ascend to that level george kirby could be that kind of pitcher i've seen some buzz brash's slider is so good i don't know it's enough to do be a whole starter and everything but it's a really good slider but he might be a back-end guy with k's like a four or five inning guy i mean there's a few ways that could work out and end up being a really good thing for Matt Brash. We have set a record. I'm 99% sure we've never had a pod go an hour 40 before. So yes, over 100 minutes of goodness. Yeah, and it's all goodness

because the next pod might be... Well, actually, we'll have one more wrap-up of all the moves on Wednesday, and then the Friday pod might be doomed. I'm going to need someone to just send me bags of cash to do more NFBC draft and hold leagues to bridge the gap through the lockout. I can't do one every week on my own dime. It will eventually just destroy my bankroll.

So if you have bags of money around that you need to make it go away you can send those to me what are we gonna write about what are you talking about well we get more holidays coming up so we'll get more shows off that might be the key if we take the holiday shows off like around the end of december 20th or so you're giving you guys our playbook you'll see you won't hear from us during the lockout. To me, it's not fun. It's not fun. The leaks,

the ideas that they have are not fun. Especially ownership. They just seem to come up with a dumber idea every time. Every time one of the ownership plans leaks, I'm like, no. No. Why would the players ever do this? don't pay by war you want to lower the luxury tax yeah lower the luxury tax pay players by war um if you go negative in

war pay the team back out of your own pocket the owner gets money back take out a high interest loan through the bank of ownership's choice to pay. No, it's like, come on, get out of here with this nonsense. But before we go, if you made it to this point in the pod, thank you for listening for an hour and 40 minutes. I should have mentioned this a lot earlier. We should have like a special gift we could offer you, but we can offer you a subscription to The Athletic for just a dollar a month for the first year.

It's the Black Friday, Cyber Monday. Everyone has a deal right now. This is our best deal of the year. We don't do this very often. Theathletic.com slash ratesandbarrels is where you can sign up for that. So be sure to get that or tell friends. You got some friends that don't have The Athletic yet?

A dollar a month? I mean, come on. Think about all the things you spend more than a dollar a month on that you enjoy a lot less than you would enjoy a subscription to the site. And it's a good way to support one of your favorite pods. I'm not going to say it's your favorite pod.

Maybe it is, but it's a pod that you listen to for almost two hours on a random Monday. We definitely miss doing the show, though, because I think we sort of did a pod when we were having that beer. It kind of turned into at least 30 minutes of rates and barrels before going back into just normal bar chatter. Yeah, our pre-work done in bars. And then hopefully this spring, there's enough of a run-up for the baseball season that we will have those live shows in the Bay Area. So keep an ear out for that.

Excited for that possibility at this point too. Definitely seems like something we can get off the ground. On Twitter he's at Eno Saris. I am at DerekVanRiper. Give Britt a follow at Britt underscore Jiroli and follow at Rates and Barrels on Twitter. Something cool could happen there someday. If you're watching us on YouTube, be sure to barrel up on the like button.

We'd greatly appreciate that. That is going to do it for this episode of Rates and Barrels. We are back with you on Wednesday. Thanks for listening.