Rates & Barrels - Anticipating Deadline Deals in Search of Late-Season Opportunities & Value Changes

Episode Date: July 28, 2022

Eno and DVR comb through several rosters ahead of the Trade Deadline in search of current backups and upper level minor leaguers with paths to more playing time in the near future. Plus, they consider the implications of Mike Trout's injury on the Angels in the future, and the importance of the A's hitting on the likely trades of Frankie Montas, Sean Murphy and Ramón Laureano.  Rundown 0:00 It Starts (Intro Music) 1:47 Andrew Benintendi to the Yankees 4:23 PT for Kyle Isbel, Edward Olivares (Once Healthy)? 8:59 Finding Replacement in Chicago 14:36 Will Jose Barrero & Jake Fraley Play More for the Reds? 19:04 Who Moves in Baltimore, Who Steps Into Larger Roles? 24:06 Still Interested in Jack Suwinski? 31:13 Cheap Stolen Bases Coming from D.C.? 42:04 The Mike Trout Situation 52:33 Uncharted Territory in Oakland? Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarris Follow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiper e-mail: [e-mail] Subscribe to The Athletic at $1/month for the first six months: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

You've always wanted to be part of something bigger than yourself. You live for experience and lead by example. You want the most out of life and realize what you're looking for is already in you. This is for you. The Canadian Armed Forces. A message from the Government of Canada. Welcome to Raids and Barrels. It's Thursday, July 28th.

Derek Van Ryper, Eno Saris. I'm shook by the intro video not launching when it was supposed to for the YouTube version of the show. So tech issues almost certain to follow given that hot start that we're off to. But on this episode, we're going to take a look at some players who are likely to be moved to trade deadline, and then look at the depth charts behind those players to find out who those winners and significant playing time risers might ultimately be, because the unique timing of this year's trade deadline puts us in a position where we can actually pursue those players on Sunday

in a lot of leagues. They could be big winners playing time-wise between Monday and Tuesday, deadline's 6 o'clock Eastern on Tuesday, and we, as a group of fantasy players, could actually end up saving a lot of fab if we can, with some accuracy, predict who these winners are going to be.

So what do you think our success rate could be at something like this, Eno? Two to five percent. Yeah, that seems about right. Also, I think the reward is not substantial. In many cases, I think you're right. I think if you play in mono leagues and in deeper mixed leagues, there's a little more there. There's a list we created.

There's one name that I'm kind of excited about. Maybe two. Yeah, so stay tuned for the whole hour as we give you one name that might help you. Really? Oh man, we teased that one well. Yeah, we really did. There's other stuff to talk about too. The Mike Trout injury. There's an Andrew Benintendi trade, which is kind of what led us to start down this path. So Andrew Benintendi on the move. He goes to the Yankees. I just have a quick Ben and tendy question for you do you have interest in him in some shallow leagues where he wasn't previously rostered because of the lack of homers and steals even though the slash line has been really good he's been very productive

as an offensive player i think you could probably find him on the wire in some at least 10 team leagues out there especially leagues only start three outfielders moving into a much more hitter friendly environment as a left handed bat especially how much more power are you expecting from Benintendi and how does that change his shallow league appeal you know he he changed his approach because of the park so I think there's at least I don't know like a 25 to 30 percent chance that he actually changes his approach back again to go for power because it's a more power-friendly park, and then he's got that short porch there. Like, there's some intention in what he's done,

and so why can't he change that intention to now try to pull the ball hard in the air, you know? I would say if he continues the way he's going, you'd expect one or two more homers. Not a big deal. However, there's this outside chance, this little sliver of a chance that he now decides that it's time to sell out for power or at least try to pull the ball in the air more. That's exciting.

And then the real reason that I would pick him up in those shallower leagues is runs in RBI. would pick him up in those shallower leagues is runs and RBI. I think, you know, when I wrote the piece saying, you know, here are the budget alternatives, Ben Attendee was the budget alternative to Juan Soto. And the reason he was in the conversation was Ben Attendee had the second or third best projected on base percentage among the players available at the deadline. is available at the deadline. So I would assume that the Yankees install him near the top of the order. So runs in RBI, plate appearance chances with runners on base,

little bit outside chance of altering that approach and hanging for more power. I think it's a good day for Andrew Ben Tenney. And as I understand it, the three prospects going back the other way are really not like impact fantasy players anytime soon. So you're not really going to get a whole lot of keeper and dynasty league value out of immediately picking up any of those players. If you're going to pick up one Beckway as the pitcher that I think has the most appeal, I have to talk to Keith Law

a little bit on Thursday morning for the athletic baseball Show. So there's your sleeper if there is one, but I would heavily emphasize the if there is one. The Royals playing the volume game here, trying to get a few arms into that system. More interestingly, I think, is the situation that Benintendi leaves behind at the big league level. Now I think we see a lot more Kyle Isbell. He's been really up and down the last couple seasons with the Royals. I think they owe it to themselves to see if he can at least be a big side platoon player. I think it's possible he gets a chance to face some same-handed pitching if the Royals also move Michael Taylor,

because you could see Kyle Isbell and Edward Olivares, once he's back from the IL, both in the lineup on a regular basis, which is something that just was not happening at all prior to this deadline. Yeah, you know, here's a player that has, by Fangraph's estimation, 40 present game power and also 50 raw power. And that's something you can see when you look at his max EV with a 111. That's above average, and his barrel rate is decidedly below average um you know i think that royals hitting coaching is not necessarily as far behind

as their pitching coaching uh sometimes it takes all it takes is an extended chance where they don't feel like they're going to get sent down if they have a bad week for them to start you know trying their a swing out more you know you're going to use your b swing and try to get on base more if you're just trying to impress you know the manager and stay up uh but uh you know eventually he needs to hit for more power to be more interesting no you know the numbers hue closer the projectionsw closer to barrel rate because that's more predictive. But the max EV says there's a little bit more to him. I think if he was given a full chance and hit his upside,

it's a guy who could hit 250, 260 with 15, 15 or even 20, 20. But he really does need to unlock more of that raw power, and I'm not saying that that's necessarily likely. But anybody who steals bases is useful for, you know, the deeper leagues right now. And then once he gets healthy, he's got a quad strain right now, Edward Olivares should get finally someday a chance.

I mean, I feel like he's the five-option guy every year where he goes up and down five times. But, you know, he's an interesting guy because we had a term for this and it's going to come up against later. I get a little bit of a Joey Wendell-type vibe from him because he's around average or better than average in walk rate, strikeout rate, speed,

you know, has the potential to be around average in power, hasn't necessarily shown it yet, but he's right there. So, you know, he's an all-around guy that doesn't really have a carrying tool or a standout facet that, you know, screams at you. But another guy who could hit 260, hit 15 homers, and steal 10 bases in a full year if he was given a chance. And so these are two names with some stolen bases attached that should get more of a chance now, especially because I think Michael Taylor is not that exciting, but there are teams that need some defense in center field.

And to be able to add, I think, Michael Taylor on your bench, right-handed outfielder that can play center for you, I think there's going to be a team that will jump at that. So I would assume that Olivares and Isbell finally get everyday chances at some point this season. And worst-case scenario, if the Royals didn't trade Michael Taylor, he's under contract for 2023, they would probably use him more like a small side platoon player, play him a bit less to get a look at some younger players for the future, because you have to figure

out what kind of role will Isbell have in the future? What kind of role will Olivares have in the future? How do you make these pieces fit in 2023 and beyond i think based on the ceilings you mentioned it seemed like your ceiling for isbel was just a little bit higher than olivares so if you were in a deep mix keeper league trying to just find some future value would you prioritize isbel ahead of olivares if they were both available yeah i mean isbel's hit the ball 111 and olivares has not done that yet olivarez has tapped into his barrel rate a little bit more but i almost find that meaningless when you're comparing these types of samples and

you're talking about olivarez has a six percent barrel rate and isbel has like a four and a half five you know it's like neither one of them stands out on that um i think olivarez might make a little bit more contact but isbel is just i think a little bit more athletic and more capable of center field, which I think is meaningful here. Let's tear down the Cubs roster because I think that's a lot of fun. It's about to happen. We already saw the hug ceremony

from Wilson Contreras. Almost a little awkward, but it's kind of the way things go at this point. People just know sometimes they're going to be traded. We don't know where Wilson Contreras is going to go. If they keep Jan Gomes, I think Jan Gomes becomes more interesting for fantasy purposes. But if they also trade Jan Gomes,

I don't think they necessarily have a catcher that you want to roster. I don't think PJ Higgins is all that interesting. But I think the Ian Happ possibility is kind of interesting because that opens up outfield playing time, and there's a lot of different ways that playing time could be distributed. So is there anybody in the depths of the Cubs roster that you think is interesting, either at AAA or possibly on the bench right now in the big leagues

that would play more if they find a deal that works for Hap? Nelson Velasquez is playing and nearly every day, but it's a pinch hit appearance, a pinch runner appearance, center field, left field. They seem hesitant to press go fully uh maybe because he's a right hander maybe because he strikes out too much uh maybe because he's you know he wasn't a top prospect

um you know maybe because the hit tool isn't there but the power is there uh the power is there he's here's a guy who's hit the ball 111 and in a small sample has the 15 barrel rate and also in the minor leagues has the slugging rates that you expect from a guy with real power so if you're just chasing power um with a with a couple steals i think he'll i mean they use him as a pinch runner recently you know like he's a he's got some speed i think nelson velasquez is the guy who's going to get a chance. Yeah, a lot of swing and miss that we've seen in the upper levels of the minors for Nelson Velasquez.

As we've seen, Patrick Wisdom is probably a good example of this within the same organization. They're not afraid of it. They're not afraid of it when it comes down to giving someone who can barrel the ball an opportunity. That might be something that does open up the door for Nelson Velasquez. I was also wondering, you know, on the pitching side, if Marcus Stroman could be moved. We're seeing some other names pop up on the starting pitcher market because of slides

from the Red Sox and the Giants, right? Nathan Evaldi and Carlos Rodon might actually get moved. That didn't look like it was going to happen just a few weeks ago. Stroman has an opt-out after 2023. He just signed with the Cubs this offseason. It was three years, $71 million. He's been hurt this year a bit. But I would think the Cubs would be willing to flip him if there is a team interested in trading for him.

And given the number of teams that want starting pitching, I think that market actually exists. The weird thing with the Cubs, and this is true of most teams that would possibly trade established starting pitching, they don't necessarily have good starting pitching waiting for an opportunity. Most teams don't have that, but we could get another look at Caleb Killian if the Cubs move a starter and maybe even if they don't uh I'm not waiting with bated breath um I also just think Stroman's profile is not one that most uh teams are chasing right now um and it's it's not completely clear to me I you know there's this line where years of team control becomes a contract you want to offload you know what i mean um and i don't think he's under his contract is underwater but i don't necessarily think of it as an asset so i'm not i'm not sure that teams

would be like oh we can get him for this year and we'll pencil in for next year when you know his results right now are only okay and he's not like a frontline guy um so i i kind of doubt he'll get traded but i do think the bullpen will be rated uh david robertson you know has already been linked to new york and i think eight other teams so yeah he's he's gonna go i'd be tempted to just hand the ball to michael givens but then he might go too um and if michael givens goes I guess maybe it's Efrost let me see here what you gotta do is

you gotta look over the last 14 days on the Cubs and among the relievers and you gotta look for holds that's step one. The holds have gone to Rowan Wick and Scott Efrost.

The Pitching Plus model says Efrost has bad stuff but good command, and Rowan Wick has good stuff and good command, so I'm going to give the ball to Rowan Wick if David Robertson and Michael Gibbons leave town. I think both of those guys will get traded. I think Chris Martin would also be a name that could get flipped too, just if you're looking for veterans that there's no real reason why you'd assume the Cubs would hold none of those players.

I think that's a possibility. This other team that's kind of clearly selling but doesn't necessarily have a lot of internal talent, Cincinnati, right? Brandon Drury should be one of the more versatile bats that is available at this deadline. I want to say Jose Barrero could play a lot more. He's not been great at AAA this year. It's kind of strange given how well he played at the same level last year. Those samples are kind of similar in size.

I wonder if health is a factor of just missing a lot of time with injury this year. If Barrero's still not 100% healthy or for a good part of this year he wasn't. Power has really departed and the strikeout rate has just leapt. Yeah, 38.3% this year after he struck out 22% of the time at that level a season ago. So it's been strange. He's got power. He's got speed. I would assume they'd give him a shot if they had room

almost anywhere but who else could the reds turn to if they move some combination of drury tommy fam and even tyler naquin i have we have we made some pre-shown notes and this is maybe one of the sadder parts of the pre-show notes it says it just says fraley friedel almora and then a sad face emoticon oh yeah you do have a sad face but jake fraley uh jake fraley i think is the guy that is most fancy friendly and i think just honestly, somebody that I would give the biggest chance to, because here's a guy that I think could play center, you know, or I'd want to know if he can play center because he's played it off and on,

you know, his whole career. I'd want to just hand the ball to Fraley and say, dude, you're healthy. We need a center fielder. You're a lefty that really gets on base with the best of them. You know, can you unlock some of that power? Can you be the person that, you know, zips projects him to be 13% better than league average and,

you know, show decent defense and do something that would translate to 25-20 with homers and steals over a full season. So that's the guy I'm most interested in, particularly in OBP leagues. And I think that could happen no matter what happens. I think they could just decide, you know, Naquin's not really part of our future. Almora is a fourth outfielder probably by true talent.

Wherever it is in the outfield, we're just going to give the ball to Fraley. It's weird that a lot of the players that get these opportunities, guys that are 25, 26, 27 years old, they offer a little bit of speed. A lot of them could be players that steal 8, 10, 12 bases maybe over two months if they end up in everyday roles. And to me, it feels like the last chance to really find someone

that could be a difference maker in the category because it's the last big playing time shift barring a surprising injury to a regular where one player like this comes in and takes all the playing time shift, barring a surprising injury to a regular where one player like this comes in and takes all the playing time. I would assume that a lot of these players stick around because they have the athleticism and they can do something at the plate, either walk or not strike out. You know what I mean? And so the reason they're hanging around and the reason people finally give them a chance is to see what the power true talent power looks like right and power might be something that develops late

or just they needed to fill out they needed to get bigger whatever it is they needed to see more pictures people so it's like there's that one missing thing that could unlock uh their a chance i mean like connor joe uh was a guy that has some athleticism, was hanging around, had some speed, had the on-base, and the question was what the power would look like. Now he's getting the long-term shot this year, and he's not really showing the power, but at least all the other things have made him about a league average player. And so I think of Connor Joe when I think of Jake Fraley. And there's something similar about both of them.

I think Fraley's one of the... Even sad face emoticon aside, I think he's one of the more interesting guys on this list. Oh, and look, they have Michael Papierski. How did he end up on the Reds from the Giants? Try Tim's new Sweet Chili Chicken loaded wraps and bowls today. Take your taste buds on an exciting new adventure for lunch or dinner with our delicious new Sweet Chili Sauce. It's time for Sweet Chili Chicken.

It's time for Tim's. At participating restaurants in Canada for a limited time whoa what are you listening to this for wait who's talking you know you're driving a 2024 ford escape with available alexa built in so you can change the music oh yeah alexa change station to 99.2 see purchase a 2024 escape st line all-wheel drive with tech pack at 3.49 apr for 72 months with down payment that's just 267267 bi-weekly. Cash value of $40,294. Plus, eligible Ford owners get a $1,000 bonus. For details, visit your local Ford store or Ford.ca. I want to talk about Baltimore for a second. We don't know who exactly moves they could trade Trey Mancini. They may just hold them because they don't get a good offer. Anthony Santander

has a few years of control left. It seems like he's a possibility to get traded. If a spot for a regular bat opens up, it's probably somewhere in a corner. So who could step up there if he would create a spot? Here's my name that I like the most on our podcast today. Mr. Kyle Stowers, come on down. He's already had a chance in the major leagues he's been to triple a he has basically smashed the ball wherever he's been uh lefty with good on base skills not great contact skills but a lot of power uh i think you say let's get some of the kinks out of the way

uh so that we get the best version of Kyle Stowers when we're ready to go. I think the clock has already started. He's already used an option year. Let's get him in there, and let's have him play every day and start making the adjustments he needs to make at the major league level. I don't think there's that much left for him to do at the minor league level. You know who Kyle Stowers is as a player in terms of a

comparable, more highly regarded prospect that just came up? He's basically J.J. Blede. Maybe even a slightly better version of J.J. Blede. Has a better speed grade according to fan graphs. Maybe a little less present hit tool, but looking across the

board, lefty, corner outfielder power first hit tool maybe like that's kind of the profile i'm expecting from stowers yeah yeah bladet has the chance to to strike out less i mean he's he's shown that at some of his stops but uh not too far off um i think stars is actually worth getting excited about might be worth even in nfbc formats um you you don't want to put too much money down because what if they stand pat and he's still in the minor leagues you know so i think i'd keep it under five bucks which is not very much out of a thousand but put a thousand, but put two bucks on them, put three bucks on them. You know,

it's one of those, like, it's like a scratcher. You can only do that with one or two roster spots this time of year, but this is the time of year to think about it. If you have enough health across the rest of your roster, pick your spots, take your chances and try and find some surplus value on the cheap.

Because if you wait a week and Stowers ends up getting promoted because of the trade, he's going to be $50 to $70 potentially. Especially if he comes up and hits a few homers in the series leading into the next fab run. The bullpen here is one of the spots where you could also see a closer move. I know Britt has suggested Jorge Lopez would make a lot of sense, even if they're still playing for this year. We already saw the move relievers earlier in the year tanner scott going to miami so you know you look at the the makeup of this roster and you think about felix bautista someone who's really popped in the pitching model

all season long there's a chance bautista is getting some saves maybe all the saves for the orioles if they do in fact move lopez yeah i Yeah, I mean, I like Dylan Tate some too, but if Baptista has the holds and he's also, I think, number one in Stuff Plus in the entire big leagues, so I think they've got their guy in place. And I think it's nice to have Dylan Tate. That means it's more likely you trade Jorge Lopez because you have Dylan Tate and Shonel Perez. I don't know how to say his name general perez um you have perez and tate behind

bautista so you still have like a you know the chance at a working bullpen um and uh you could you could benefit from that back to stars real quick is there there anybody on that level or anybody that you would put in that category of put a dollar or two on them in NFPC I think maybe Olivares I wish he was healthy

Isbell they'd be behind Stowers for me Fraley would be I think behind Stowers although maybe more likely to just get the chance. Velazquez is also similar to Stowers. I'd go Stowers over Velazquez, though.

Velazquez needs a trade to happen, I think. Stowers does too. That's the one nice thing about Fraley. He might not need a trade to happen. It might just happen anyway. I think those are actually all interesting names. I might just put a dollar on all of might just happen anyway so they're all i think those are actually all interesting names i might just put a dollar on all of them and see which one i get right one big list though you're only picking up one you're not picking up multiples in in many

situations again focusing more on mixed leagues talking about mono leagues okay take more shots in a mono league because finding playing time is really difficult to do the players you're dropping in many of those cases are guys that don't play at all, or they're even stuck in the minors in plenty of those instances. I do have a name that is on this level, and maybe first in the group.

Let's fly on over to Pittsburgh. Oh, back to Pittsburgh. Is there anything standing out to you on this depth chart that wasn't already interesting? Like Jack Swinski That's what I'm saying. Has the cheap power He's in the minors. He'll come back up as soon as they trade

Ben Gamble. I don't think they trade Brian Reynolds, but I think they could trade Ben Gamble Yeah, I think I like Swinski maybe a little less than Stowers. 14 homers already in 250 plate appearances this season. What do you want from Stowers? You want cheap power.

Swinski already showed you cheap power. Maybe a little less swing and miss. Yeah. Both are not going to give you a big batting average, though, I don't think. I don't think there's anybody on here who's going to give you everything. Unless Fraley just gets super hot and lucky with the batting average. Fraley's probably a low average power speed guy i kind of think frailey has the most frailey and isbell have the most

ways of making positive value for you that's true that's true so i think they're probably a little a little ahead of of the the masher type velasquez will steal some bases too it's really hard to separate all these guys actually i mean stowers in like a keeper league if there's if you're like in a keeper league where someone could play their way into keepers like 10 15 keepers or dynasty type then stowers is the obvious obvious guy and i think that's why i still have him first because i have that sort of prospect unknown potential could just just with it, feeling from him. But then behind him is this group where Swinski, Velazquez,

they're kind of similar mashers, but Velazquez steals a little bit. Fraley and Isbell are both Homer, a little bit of power, a little bit of speed. If you need the speed, I would look more in the Fraley-Isbell category than anywhere else. Oakland has Ramon Laureano and Sean Murphy as two really good position players they could move. But the problem I see is that you're talking about maybe Shea Langeleers and Christian Pache. Pache has really struggled against big league pitching so far. So I don't know if there's anything beyond AL only sort of appeal with Pache, Langoliers, and Christian Pache. Pache has really struggled against big league pitching so far, so I don't know if there's anything beyond AL only sort of appeal with Pache. And if they wait on Langoliers,

then you're probably looking at someone like Austin Allen, who can mash for a second catcher. And maybe because of where he'd hit in the order, I could justify that as a pickup in like a 15-team mixed league. But the problem in Oakland is the quality of the replacements. I think the thing that could be good about both Laureano and Sean Murphy is they could return players who are big league ready at other positions. That's part of what makes trading them appealing. And that's literally how Oakland works.

And that's literally how Oakland works. So, in fact, talking about who might come up on the athletics is kind of irrelevant because, A, they don't really have good prospects, and, B, they're going to trade for the prospects. It's like the Kevin Smith situation. They're going to trade for guys who have popped up recently who are ready for the big leagues. And so they'll probably just insert all the guys that they get for Lloriano

if they trade Lloriano. Now, will they trade Lloriano? I mean, he's still under contract for next year. He's not too expensive yet. But I know that Romo and Lloriano wants to be traded. I talked to him about it extensively last night. He's ready to leave.

He's ready to move on. Yeah. That's what he said. I sort of pointed to the lockers and I said, what's it like to be on a team where, like, who are these people? New teammates almost every day. And he said, there's no one here, man. It's not a big league

situation he said and i was like it's on purpose right and he's like yeah it's on purpose and then he and then he said uh i've been getting into caffeine that's what i've been trying more and more caffeine and that's what he said he's been doing to counteract uh the fact there's no fans at the parks and so apparently he's been like carrying around an espresso machine he travels with it now and so he's he's he's downing triple espressos before the game to try and to try and make up for the lack of fans so and then i said something about milwaukee and he's like oh you know you know what happens in mil? 100 mile per hour, 30 degree launch angle balls, they actually go out.

Yeah, they do. It's amazing. He says, that doesn't happen here. So I think people look at Laureano without the sort of knowledge or without thinking of the park and say, he's a guy who's sitting 224 with 10 homers not that exciting but i do think his power could take a real lurch forward if he went to the

right place and there is something i like about him going to milwaukee like for example i know you'd like tyrone taylor a little bit but what if you just traded tyrone taylor for ramon loriano yeah you're probably sending back some minor leaguers too, but that's what would happen. You look at Taylor and say, hey, wait a minute. Now he joins our group of outfielders who might not be playing in your mixed league right now who could play in your mixed league with more playing time even though the situation gets worse.

The playing time situation gets better. You know what's weird about Oakland? Kevin Smith is still stuck at AAA, and he's not hitting. He tore up that level. He was 44% better than a league average hitter last year. Yes, AAA pitching was down last year. He still has not homered. Yeah, he's played 32 games at AAA against Vegas.

No homers. And Vegas is a good place to homer. Weird. So weird to be as good as he was last year. It's a new park, right? Yeah, I haven't seen park factors for the new park in Vegas. Is it a new park? Or is it a remodeled

old park? It's a remodeled old park, but I think they changed the dimensions. He has a 22 WRC+. I thought he was going to be good. Like, really good. I thought he was going to be good, like really good. I thought he was going to be power, speed, everyday role for the A's. I thought he'd finish the year as the starting shortstop. It's been a terrible year for Kevin Smith.

I think there's an underrated problem in Oakland is the poor coaching, poor player development. They've got some people that are good you know at the major league level but i think they failed to invest in the structure in the minor leagues and i'm shocked yeah absolutely shocked that they would this is my shock structure yeah that's what oakland's all about i don't have any notes here for Oakland because of that fact, really. No. Other situations.

I'm trying to find other positives. Who else, as you went diving through these various depth charts, stood out? There's one name in D.C. that we've never talked about on this show, Josh Palacios, a speedy outfielder. If you think back to last season when the cubs made a bunch of trades and rafael ortega started playing a lot more he took advantage of that playing time carved out a role for this year i think that's the kind of profile that josh palacios has so if the door opens and it probably will it could be you know nelson cruz trade and just a floating DH, that creates a spot where they maybe move Yadiel Hernandez over to DH more often,

and then Palacios plays in the outfield. Suddenly, he's at least getting a big side platoon role, but he could be an everyday guy that quickly bumps Victor Robles back to the bottom of the order. Another leading off Victor Robles. Thank you for tweeting at me, by the way, everybody, every time something happens with Victor Robles. Really appreciate the updates. We know that's not going to last so yeah i think josh palacios could end up being one of those games those names that comes out of nowhere to

have some appeal for us here down the stretch yeah and you know he's i think almost throwing a joey wendell on him is not is not appropriate he's shown at various stops the ability to have an above average walk rate and above average strikeout rate and contact rate and above average speed and above average defense now the question is power that has only popped a few times in small samples so i would not really bet on the power uh but and that that you know not having power is something that's that sort of strips away your a chance to hit for a good batting average so i know he's hitting 306 in triple a right now projections 250 230 i you know he looks speedy enough to me that i think he could get up to 260 270 if he has a 100 iso um but he has to

have at least a 100 iso and isolated slugging percentage you know the major league average is like 170 or something um it might be down to 160 with the new ball but uh he'll have below average power but uh you know put him on the list uh with Fr Fraley in that Fraley Isbell do you have one that you like better than the rest? Still probably Isbell of the bunch. He's the number one priority of the bunch. I think he's going to cost you

a little bit more. A lot of these other names because the trades haven't happened yet. They'll actually be min bid players. Isbell might take 22 out of 1,000 or 33 out of 1,000. Something that's above a 1% bid, but not way above a 1% bid.

He's been bad enough when given those chances where people, I think, have lost some of their optimism. Yeah, and what's nice about him is he's had more chances than Palacio. There's more chance for him to have made adjustments and like have a plan this time you know understand what it takes and and and take and take it and run with it whereas Palacios may

just be overwhelmed again you know it may just be his first chance and you know he did have like a cup of coffee with Toronto last year but you know and then Fraley is actually on the opposite end where this is we're getting closer to last chance Saloon. He's had many chances and he's been okay and someone just needs to sort of believe in him. So I think I might have Fraley first. But if you wanted to have a separate power and speed sort of FAB thread, I would probably go Stowers,

Swinski, Velazquez on the power side, and I would probably go Fraley, Isbell, Palacios on the speed side. The other thing we have to keep in mind is you can imagine, think back to the time, I think it was the Zach Greinke trade

that put Josh Rojas in Arizona. You can take a player who's really blocked in the minor leagues with his current organization, put him on a team like Oakland or plenty of other teams that are trying to find value for the future, and those players might be the big winners. It might be someone that you're not even thinking about on the depth chart of the team that's trading away a good player. That's definitely something that we'll be watching. We're going to have our live stream, as I mentioned at the end of the 3-0 show, we have a live stream for the trade deadline going down at 6 Eastern, just before 6 Eastern, coming up on Tuesday.

So we'll dig into these names as the opportunities open up. Yeah, it's a little bit hard to ideate on those guys because they have to be in the trade. So it's like kind of... It's like the Miguel Andujar, but it's players like that as two reveries a little bit he's a little bit of that dominic smith now he's kind of falling into this trap doesn't have a spot but some other team might say we're playing you we think you can hit we think you're good so we're

trading for you the daughters have someone that's i mean, Miguel Vargas, he's not really the same thing we're talking about. He's a prospect. Yeah. Yeah, so who else could use a center fielder like Laureano? Center fielders. I've got the Brewers in the bottom as contenders. The Phillies. Yep, Phillies have needed a center fielder for a while.

So they send Vierling. Yep. Phillies have needed a center fielder for a while. So they send Vierling. Yeah. Vierling's already playing a decent bit though, right? I mean, he's moving around a lot too. That's been the surprise for me. But, you know, 77 WRC plus. He has hit the ball hard by Max

TV. Barrel rate's boring, but the contact rate is good. I could totally see the Phillies trading Matt Vierling. It wouldn't be the centerpiece as part of a group to get Laureano. I think that would actually make sense for them. They've been looking for a center fielder. I think the A's would jump all over that. Hey, we got a guy that's making the league minimum

that can play all over the place. Yeah, let's get him back as part of the trade uh who else on in center field is in the bottom half of the raise i don't think that's the answer i don't know i mean they could do the thing where they trade for him and flip him again nah that's not that's not necessary in this case uh and then by the time you get to oh the astros trade trade back for their they're getting by fine with without you know without a clear cut everyday center fielder so far but that's a spot they could upgrade i think they yeah i think what you could do is because Myers was hurt and his power numbers are down,

I think you could do something where you temporarily demote Myers and you trade a Chaz McCormick to the A's plus pieces for Laureano. That fits our scenario where you've got a guy who's 27 and playing pretty well, but the Astros would maybe see Laureano as an upgrade. There's an outside chance there. Again, I'm not saying Chaz McCormick is the centerpiece of the deal. I'm just saying he's the major leaguer that could play in Oakland after the deal is consummated.

Anything else that stands out to you as far as players that could pop with an opportunity? It seems like we've covered a ton of ground so far. The one place we haven't gone yet is Arizona. We had a whole podcast about Arizona and Arizona-like teams on the 3-0 pad this week, about teams where it's kind of hard to tell exactly what they're going to do. Now, I mean, I think for sure they've got to trade David Peralta.

Like, there's no reason to keep him around at all. They have a 0% chance of making the playoffs, and they've got tons of outfielders and i think they would give a chance uh an everyday chance to jake mccarthy they're kind of already doing that he's kind of like the dh right now uh but maybe uh pavin smith uh when he gets back uh from the from the disabled list it's a fractured right wrist though so dominic fletcher is the name he's the guy that's your guy he's your bridge guy you like it's not the it's not the profile that i get excited about it's just more of a this is the dude that has put up decent numbers in the minors he doesn't hit for

a lot of power he doesn't steal bases no prospect evaluator good not a good fantasy player other than the playing time could just be there well he's hit for average everywhere he's been, and the batting average is pretty good, and the play discipline is good. So there's an outside chance he hits for an okay average and okay power. But yeah, it seems more like kind of a monoleague situation. Yeah, that's exactly where I think the interest would be capped for me if it is, in fact, Fletcher. So I just look at that situation and I'm I'm really excited about

Corbin Carroll we're gonna have a ton of conversations about him for 2023 during draft season because I think he can be on the opening day roster and he can be an impact guy next year I'd be very surprised if they started giving him big league plate appearances in the final two months of this season pleasantly surprisedantly surprised, but surprised nonetheless. You know, I might put Jake McCarthy in one of my threads. I'm not sure he'd be number one. But there's an interesting collection of skills here. 6% bail rate is slightly above average. He stole 11 bases in the minors last year,

and he's stolen as much as 29 bases. No, 32 across all levels in 2021. So the guy with speed, the guy with patience, the contact rate and the power rate go up and down, but he's barreled some balls so far this year. He's a really interesting guy to watch because he almost has like a kyle tucker uh stance at the plate or cody bellinger where he's like super super erect i guess is the word uh and then he kind of upright use the word upright in place

anyway uh and then he gets into a regular hitting position jake mccarthy i think um is without knowledge of a fletcher uh and and also just the fact that he's playing right now is an interesting pickup in in the deeper leagues yeah already has a role less of a leap of faith and i think the peralta trade is basically a certainty at this point. I think there's plenty of teams that could use him as an upgrade, as a corner option. Should we talk about the Mike Trout situation for a moment? I've seen, you know, kind of lobbies on both sides of like,

oh, God, this is the end, and this is such a tragic moment. And then Jeff flasher tweeted yesterday that you know he talked to mike trout and he's like i'm fine this is something i have to manage i it's from what i understand it's not the david wright situation where his spine was getting worse over time i think it's just sort of like a it's like a chronic back thing it's like it is maybe why he will leave the game but it's not he's gonna leave the game this year you know right that's my interpretation of what we know so far too right it's called costo vertebral dysfunction and i i was talking about this on the athletic baseball show i don't think i've ever actually seen that

as an injury before and i've written up injuries for players in all major sports for about 15 years like spawn spondylosis or something yeah and then there was the prince fielder he had a fusion i think of the vertebrae like that was that was a major surgery that doesn't seem to be on the table for trout right now so that seems pretty different this almost seems almost more like back and ribs together just based on the table for trout right now so that seems pretty different this almost seems almost more like back and ribs together just based on the way it was initially reported and i start thinking of stuff like thoracic outlet syndrome or conditions more like that which again with the proper treatment rehab management feeling like almost like that when you strain your obliques so he

has some like pain when he turns that's not good because baseball is a rotational sport. A lot of torque. The thing that I see in his profile that I think is true, if you look over the last few years, is when the Angels fall out of it, you may lose Mike Trout. Well, that's going to happen every single year. They're not a good organization, right? I mean, I think that's the risk with Mike Trout. You get him for good first halves,

and then the second half depends on how he feels and how the Angels are doing. I think it also reduces the likelihood, whatever the chances were, of Mike Trout being traded. Some teams saying, yeah, it's fine. We love Mike Trout. We'd love to have him. We don't care. We'll take on the big contract. Those chances are closer to

zero now because of this. They were low. If it was 5% before, it's like 1% now or less than 1% now. I just think it's going to force the Angels to do better as an organization. With uncertainty around Mike Trout

long term, everything else they do as an organization has to get better. Otherwise, they will never find a way to win. They need to do this even with a healthy Trout. Now it just pushes them even further in that direction. They're going to sign Carlos Rodon to

a massive contract. This is what happens. Their owner is always like, shiny bobble, need the new thing. We haven't paid for a pitcher. We've got time to pay for a pitcher. Yeah, so you think they're going to do that. At the deadline, Noah Syndergaard moves. They are firmly in the don't have enough starting pitchers as it is group.

Again, not alone among teams that are trading pitchers away more consistency from chase silseth in terms of his role is probably something that would happen with that uh the the other part of all this likes him enough i you know i if if he gets a chance chase i would give him uh a look uh it says he basically above average in in all three facets of the game. The comp I saw, it was just a Twitter graphic that came up last night. I was just doing a Mike Trout search looking for the news. I apologize. I don't remember whose handle this was originally made by, but it was comparing Mike Trout side by side to Frank Thomas

through the first nine, ten years of their respective careers. It's pretty amazing to look at the production. And I think we maybe underrate Frank Thomas a little bit in hindsight. I mean, obviously the era. He was, he was one of my favorites. I just, I just loved the, like, he was like the 300, 400, 500 guy, you know, like just had the cleanest batting approach. It was so good.

It's, but it's also also kind of a good reminder. Trout's a large human. Frank Thomas was obviously a large human as well. And players, these big players, these superstars that could play multiple sports. You can't tell me if Mike Trout wasn't a professional baseball player, they wouldn't be a pro athlete in something else.

Frank Thomas could have played football, could have played tight end probably in the NFL. Yeah i'd make trout a safety does that even exist anymore inside linebacker some sort of yeah he'd play somewhere in the middle of the defense most likely if he was a football player right no doubt in my mind he would have at least made it to the pros if not been a great one i just wonder if there is something in a body type that almost works against you at a certain point. Like you can actually be too big. And I'm not saying the angels anything wrong by extending him.

They did right by extending Mike Trout. You, this is the player you always extend. And people are having these thoughts now. Juan Soto, maybe we just want to trade for him. And maybe I don't want my team to extend Juan Soto. What's happening physically to Mike Trout right now has nothing to do with whether or not team to extend Juan Soto. What's happening physically to Mike Trout right now

has nothing to do with whether or not you should extend Juan Soto. I see Juan Soto aging. I mean, he plays like Miguel Cabrera. I think he may be a little bit more smaller than Miguel Cabrera. A safer body type. But I think he could end up like Miguel Cabrera. Just not as much defensive value, but just always able to hit you get to the end of the career for a player like that and you're like oh man this is brutal this guy's just not a not even a shell of the player that he used to be okay but enjoy the ride enjoy the next 12 years where he is one of

the best hitters in the game for at least half of that time and a very good one for the other half before you get to the late, late, late part of the career. So I don't think, if your favorite team is the team that trades for Juan Soto, I don't think you look at that and say, I'm worried about what's happening with Trout. Don't extend Soto. Don't think like that.

This is just an unfortunate thing. We don't know how bad it is just yet. We'll obviously learn a lot more about it. And I think you've got to be careful not to read too much into what the Angels do with Trout down the stretch because this is a lost season. I wonder if this also is a nudge for them to make some kind of long-term decision on Shohei Otani. Otani's a free agent at the end of next season. Does Otani even want to stay with the angels given what's happened so far while he's been there i think there's a lot of unanswered questions about that and i don't expect him to

get moved the deadline but if we had a trade deadline where juan soto and shohei otani were both traded i think we'd have a shot at the best trade deadline of all time that would be nuts i like i that would immediately like two teams would just empty out the farm systems it would take the most the most ever the biggest trades ever I was talking to an executive recently

that thought that prospects are overrated in the game right now overvalued in the game right now and if you do have somebody in your front office that says Shoya Otani? Even for a year and a third?

Yeah, man. That's going to be better than these guys, probably. Even if these guys that we're trading hit their absolute ceilings, are they going to be Shoya Otani? I also just have zero belief that Otani would stay. Like, I think he wants to test the market, and I think he would want to leave. He's going to break the market. That's going to be the best part.

I think it was, I heard, it was Trevor May. Trevor May was on the No Bunts podcast. The No Dunks guys are doing a once-a-week baseball show. They had Trevor May on. We've had Trevor May on our show before. He's always a great interview, and he was just laughing. He had Trevor May on our show before. He's always a great interview. And he was just laughing. He's like, he's two guys.

He's two players. He's going to shatter every expectation anyone's ever had about free agency because he's literally two players in one. Add it to whatever number you'd give the pitcher. And you go, oh, that's actually more money than anyone's ever got before. But it makes sense because he's two players in one body.

It's truly amazing. The prospects being overrated in the game right now, I almost wonder if that's fallout from the last pandemic season, last development time, and massive gaps in terms of player development around the league. There are some teams that develop players really well and maybe have a good sense of who's a finished product and who isn't. And there's other teams that don't do that well and i think that creates these massive swings in value

with young players too yeah that's possible uh it's possible it's a it's a temporary condition but there's also just you know there's all these buzzwords we're going to hear, team control, flexibility, roster flexibility, you know, I want to build the next great, you know, I want to build the next great Tigers team, I want to build the next great Padres, you know, whatever it is, it's not going to be the Padres, but like, you know,

just all these like sort of buzzwords, you know that either they believe it or they're selling that stuff pretty hard to their owners, you know. Look at these great prospects we got please please give me please let me keep my job for the next three four years if i can sell my owner on a rebuild i can keep my job for at least another four years well how do you do that in detroit though we're in the rebuild we're gonna i need another rebuild i think the problem is yeah if you've already gone through it once and you didn't land where you wanted to i think you're unfortunately in danger as a front office of just being replaced which stinks that that there are humans being

removed from jobs having their lives not calling anything like that i don't yeah i'm not i'm not into that i'm not into the fire fire these people it's just more of a the writing is on the wall in detroit the rebuild is not going well there's probably going to be consequences for the people that have been putting this together and to be fair if you're running a team there has to be accountability you know you have to you have to you have to fire people sometimes because you just have to. Otherwise, you just become complacent. The A's lead the league in organizational tenure. Their people have been with the A's forever.

I don't think this is a good thing. I think with the A's, they're in this new valley they've never really been in before. They've played the middle a lot. They've been bad on occasion, but they've reached a new bottom. They've fallen about as far as they've fallen at any point in the last 20 years. They were making the playoffs

a lot. Was it bad then? I would say yes. The coaching was not amazing. You have to have metrics other than made the playoffs when you're kind of assessing your organizational value. You've mentioned this, that you don't really like their farm system right now. And I think they've got, looking at James Anderson's A's list right now,

I think he's got five prospects in the top 200 on his list, zero inside the top 50. When you're as bad as the A's are at the big league level, and you don't have one or two prospects in the top 50, I think you're missing the mark. I think the Montas trade is really important for them. A Sean Murphy trade is really important for them. The Laureano trade is really important for them. And if they trade is really important for them. The Laureano trade is really important for them. And if they don't, if we go, let's say a year from now, prospect graduations, all these things happen.

You get a year ahead from now and they've still only got one prospect in the top 50 and they're still really bad and the organization doesn't have good depth yet, then something is fundamentally broken. I think what they were asked to do as an organization was pretty different. This was rip it down to the studs, and that's not what it's been in the past.

I think it also is an argument for the Murphy, Luriano, and Montas trades actually happening. Because in the past, you could say, well, all those guys are in a contract for next year. They always try to be good in any given year. Well, they did not try to be good this year. They did not spend the $30 million they spend and so and they have no prospects so i think you know you take advantage of all those years of control that those players have and you get the very most for them i mean when was the last time that someone's traded a catcher with like four or five years of team control that was as good as sean murphy it's not the dodgers were never going to trade Will Smith. Never.

Yeah, I mean, how much time did Real Mudo still have left? I guess Ruiz is Ruiz, but Ruiz wasn't established like Murphy. And Ruiz, frankly, is not as good as Murphy right now. Murphy barrels more. You know, Murphy is a top three framer in the game.

Sean Murphy's a really good player. He's a really good player he's a really good player in a bad situation i'd say loriano is a good player in a bad situation but i look up and down i could see the giants trying to go after murphy i don't even see players on the depth chart that i look at and go that's a future big leaguer that's a future starter in oakland yeah no it's awful that's what's bad for me it's like you know, it's like, and just to let you inside, like hovering and writing and being in the clubhouse, like usually when you're on a rebuilding team,

you identify the two or three players that you're like, oh, these guys are going to be good. And I remember, you know, seeing Matt Olson and Matt Chapman. And I, you know, I got fairly, you know, tight with Matt Olson over time. And, you know, because you put the effort in, you try to connect with them. You talk to them, you know, off the record a lot. And, you know because you put the effort in you try to connect with them you talk to them you know off the record a lot and you know you try to establish something i don't i don't know who to do that with i would like to do with murphy but catchers are super busy game day so it is actually a little bit hard to to to kind of get in with them a lot so i just end up hanging out with lowry and loriano and and Voter and wait for the next great players to come in.

You know, part of this is that with the super tank approach the A's are using, you do get a couple of 1-1 picks, and that can turn your farm system around pretty quickly. You can cut the line a little bit, so you can get away with some of your past mistakes. They bought another catcher, Daniel Susak, this year, and then Tyler Stevenson was their last big pick. That might be their best prospect other than Shea Langley.

Oh, Soderstrom? Yeah, Tyler Soderstrom. Tyler Soderstrom, that's another catcher. So they've got three catchers. So you're looking at Murphy like, they've got three catchers behind you. They're best prospects. Three of their four best prospects are catchers.

We are going to go. Obviously, a lot likely to happen between now and our next episode. We'll, of course, be back on Monday. You can find us on Twitter. Eno's at Eno Saris. I'm at Derek Van Riper. All the coverage of the trade deadline will be available on The Athletic. Theathletic.com slash ratesandbarrels gets you in the door for just a dollar a month.

If you've got a question for us for a future episode, of course you can tweet those our way, or you can email them to us at rates and barrels at the athletic.com. That's going to do it for this episode of rates and barrels. We are back with you on Monday. Thanks for listening.