Rates & Barrels - Athletics Prospect Callups and Padres' Park Factors

Episode Date: July 14, 2023

Eno and Al discuss the latest prospects on the cusp of their major league debuts — namely, Tyler Soderstrom, Zack Gelof and Johan Rojas. Eno talks about the good and the bad of Elly De La Cruz’s attack angle and the significance of the changing park factors at PETCO Park, and he and Al dissect the waiver wire options coming out of the All-Star Break. Rundown 1:15 The Athletics and Phillies call up top prospects 7:17 The other notable news items 15:39 Elly De La Cruz’s attack angle and other hitter developments 32:43 What we can learn from one-year park factors 39:29 Streamers/two-start pitchers 56:15 Closer corner Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarris Follow Al on Twitter: @almelchiorBB e-mail: [e-mail] Subscribe to The Athletic at $2/month for the first year: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels Subscribe to the Rates & Barrels YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/c/RatesBarrels Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Best Western made booking our family beach vacation a breeze. And it felt a little like... Come on kids, back to the hotel room. Good night kids. Good night mama. Life's a trip. Make the most of it at best western Hello everybody, welcome to Rates and Barrels. It is Friday, July 14th. Happy Friday to you. I'm Al Melchior. I'm here with Eno Saris. Welcome to our weekly weekend preview show. DVR is not here. He's still away. I've got a couple more episodes to go before we get the dulcet tones of Derek Van Ryper back in the athletic studios here. So but, you know, lots to get to on the show.

That's really DVR's doing calling it the weekend preview. I like like the framing, but also just a return from from the all star break. So we've got some call ups as we do pretty much every week, if not every episode of Rates and Barrels, every week on this Friday show. We've got, of course, pitchers and hitters to target in your fab this weekend, and just some interesting general trends. We'll talk a little bit about your recent piece on one-year park factors that you alluded to a little bit on the Wednesday show. your park factors that you alluded to a little bit on the Wednesday show. But let's get into all this and start with the call-ups. In fact, the A's, they went double on the call-ups, calling

up a couple of their top prospects, really two of the top three, Tyler Soderstrom and Zach Gelof. So, you know, what's your thinking here in terms of redraft leagues, how people should be approaching these two prospects in fab this weekend? Very carefully. I think maybe even single digit bids, like maybe even don't do it. You know, I mean, I don't want to go that far because there's always a league in which it makes sense. Like I said,

though, we, we, we, we looked at the listener leagues and, and, you know, some of y'all trend towards the,

the more shallower leagues in those leagues. I feel pretty comfortable saying, I don't necessarily want either of these guys. And my reasoning is such a, the easiest way to put it is they strike out a ton and they're projected to strike out a ton there's no reason that they wouldn't strike out a ton they don't have a history of not striking out in their past they strike out a ton another more complicated way of saying it is well tyler sodastrom looks really good with a 254 303 536 line in triple a that's an 85 wrc plus because you have to think

about that's vegas that's a league that uh is you know you can you can dominate um uh offensively and not actually be that good now geloff uh you know is 22 better than league average. He's 23, so that's a slightly better line. But he also is striking out 28% of the time. He's going to strike out a lot. Maybe he comes with more walks than Soderstrom, more steals. Maybe if you need steals and can handle a bad batting average, that's where I start to put the qualifiers on. So the deeper your league is, the more you can handle a bad batting average, the more you I start to put the qualifiers on. So the deeper your league is,

the more you can handle a bad batting average, the more you just need power or just need stolen bases, then these two players can become more meaningful. In terms of playing time, I don't think they'd call them up not to play them. And so I would expect that Gelof is basically the starting second baseman for them, and Soderstrom is a near starter between Kater and DH. That's what I would expect, at least. And so the losers here are maybe a little bit of Langeleers, a little bit of, I don't know, with Ruiz hurt, I think Bledet is fine, but maybe with ruiz hurt i think bladay is fine but maybe when ruiz comes back bladay is in more trouble interesting okay uh yeah yeah because uh well yeah so well because the sort of strong trouble you know like some of these fringier bats are maybe in a little bit of trouble yeah noda do you think he loses uh some

i don't know he's playing so well, and he's being talked up around the team as one of their real finds this year. He's 31% better than the average right now at the bat, projected to be 7% to 8% better than the average at the bat. I think Noda's probably safe. And then maybe when Laureano's healthy, he's just shipped out of town, you know, because why keep him around?

So you could probably still have a Bleday, Rooker, Ruiz, Brown, Soderstrom mix for all outfield positions and DH. OK. All right. Well, let's go to the other call up news from the last day or so. let's go to the other call-up news from the last day or so. Philly is calling up Johan Rojas. And this one looks pretty straightforward, you know, because they need a replacement for Christian Pache. And Rojas just. What was the injury on Pache? You know, you have caught me off guard with that.

Because I do not remember. Right elbow irritation. Oh, okay. That's bizarre. Yeah. And I don't know what the timetable... This is what they're hitting so well. Yeah, well, I mean, is there anything there with Rojas?

Because sort of like with Gelof, there is some stolen base appeal, but in Rojas' case, probably coming in a much smaller playing time package. So I don't know if you see anything there. 15-team, deeper perhaps? It'd have to be a daily league, I think. Because as a righty, I'm not sure he's going to play enough to play in weekly leagues. So I would say he's like an nl only play and um daily 20 teamers okay so pretty pretty limited appeal uh this is a very anticlimactic

call-up segment right because he's just like oh empty the empty the bank. Yeah, this is not Babel Palooza week, I don't think. Yeah, definitely not. Definitely not. But Rojas liked the ace prospects. One of their top prospects, one of the Phillies, I'd say top five or so prospects. I might throw some, like, if you're talking 15 teams and I need stolen bases, I'm going to throw some small sort of keep them honest bids on Gelof.

So, you know, depending. I mean, I'd like to see how much he plays this week, but I'm assuming he's just like basically the starting second baseman. And if he positionally lines up with something I need, I could see throwing 20, 30 bucks at him tops. That batting average and the strikeout rate makes me think you definitely don't want to go in harder than that.

This is out of 1,000 too. Right, of course, obviously. If it were out of 100, then there'd be a mismatch between your level of enthusiasm and the bid recommendation. So, yeah, 3% bid. Yeah, and I think that makes a lot of sense.

All right, well, we've got a few other news items to get to. It's not been the biggest. This one I want so bad. A couple of news days. Jordan Alvarez, come back to us. Yeah, I'm kind of soft-pedaling. Oh, not a big news day, but that is a big deal. It's definitely a big deal for some of my teams.

Also, Jose Urquidy, along with Jordan news day, but that is a big deal. It's definitely a big deal for some of my teams. Also Jose or Katie, along with Jordan Alvarez, starting rehab assignments on Friday with AAA Sugarland. So I, you know, there's even like a little positive news note on Altuve that he's healing quicker than they thought he won't be available coming out of the break. That would be too fast,

but Altuve might not be too far away okay uh and you know with all these players it's the question of um who loses playing time in Altuve's case uh I think it's very clearly Mauricio Dubon but I think with Alvarez it's it's a little murkier uh the most obvious player I would think would be Yainer Diaz, who's been a nice find. And so is Corey Jolks. And this is really the sole reason why I didn't write up Corey Jolks in the waiver column the last couple of weeks, because I figured it was potentially limited shelf life for him. Is that being too pessimistic? Do the Astros find room for Jolks in a post-Alvarez world? I wonder if he's playing his way into it. He's got some value across the board in terms of right now,

at least with this Babib, he's getting on base. He's running well while he's on base. He's got a little bit of pop. He seems like an above-average player. And I think that defensive component is interesting because it's not a plus right now, but if you kind of stack them up against them, if I just watched Corey Jolks and Jordan Alvarez run around a little bit, I would assume that Corey Jolks is a better defender in left field. So that to me makes me think that

Jokes is going to stick around. But I think Yanir Diaz has actually been more exciting as a hitter than Corey Jokes. I mean, I'm seeing a really nice strikeout rate paired with a really nice barrel rate. And he does chase and he's you know he needs to calm down a little bit on that i mean 50% chase rate is just astronomical but you know there's like there's something nice about having a guy in your lineup that is a little different

than the rest of your guys like they have such professional polished hitters you know and then they have yainir diaz who's like, I want to hit the ball hard. And he does. And he does. And they got Mauricio Dubon who's like, I just want to spray single. So I think, you know, I think the ideal team has Dubon, Diaz, and Joke still on it. Can we build that team?

I think we can build the team. Can we build the lineup with all those guys? I'm not sure I see that. For the Astros' purposes, that's fine. What's the deal? You have 13 hitters, right? And you need to have... So Diaz is going to stay on the team

because the worst case scenario is a backup catcher. That's your point. And Dubon's going to be on the team because... And I think the same is actually true of Jolks. I think Jolks is going to stay on the team. team you're right when we're starting to build a lineup you've got jokes as a righty uh mccormick chas mccormick is a righty um jake myers is a righty um and uh so you know you can't build a platoon necessarily there with each other. You can't just be like, oh, Jokes will platoon with Myers in center or Chaz in center. They're all righties.

But what you can do is sit Alvarez against Lefty sometimes. No, you'd never do that. So, you know, you're going gonna always have alvarez in the lineup you're always gonna have tucker in the lineup you're always gonna pay me in the lineup uh you know dubon is you're gonna fly fine and it's second until atuba gets back but you're always gonna have atuba in the lineup and i was kind of bragman in the lineup so it's like where where are you sneaking in these jokes at bats once alvarez comes back and i think he's gonna hurt he's gonna be hurt by it yeah no that's been my assumption too so again if people have been looking for him

in the waiver column that is why i have not how about this included it hasn't yeah jokes chas tucker alvarez a dh okay and then so no diaz in the lineup so no Diaz in the lineup unless he takes time away from a brave Martín Maldonado I know Maldonado yeah which is what us fantasy jokes is fascinating I think I I I think uh you know somebody who's got this set of skills and is also showing an inflated Babbitt right now, he could be just an average type guy that they, and they have options on them.

They could just send them down. So I don't know. There's, there's such a range of, of things there. The good news is you probably didn't spend too much on jokes. You're not too invested in them. If the playing time starts drying up,

you know what to do and we're we're not even factoring in what might happen before the trade deadline so we'll leave that for a later show i think we've got time to time to do that a few other updates scott services that bryce miller will return to the Mariners rotation next week. So that would line him up for the back end of the rotation, meaning he probably starts Monday or Tuesday, which would line Miller up for starts against both the Twins and Blue Jays at home. I'd activate him right away. Yeah, not much. I mean, the Toronto matchup gives me a little bit of pause, but I do like Mariners pitchers at home, generally. It's in Seattle. Yeah, so

good news there for those of you who have Bryce Miller. Jose Quintana, I have not been able to find an update here on Friday on Quintana, so if you have any news, insight, I welcome it, but Quintana was scheduled to throw a simulated game on Thursday.

I've not seen anything about that. But assuming all went well, he could return to the Mets rotation sometime next week. So it's definitely a story to watch over the weekend. He has surprisingly good projections for three out of four. I mean, Steamer, Fangraphs, and ATC all have him for around a 3.9 ERA with a high whip. And then there's the bat, which is 4.85 ERA and a 1.4 whip. I think I would be super careful with Quintana

and pitch him only at home and maybe only at home against weaker offenses and if you have the ability to leave him on your IL as long as possible to even he's pitching in the major leagues so you can get some more information about how he looks what the stuff plus looks like what the looks like you know anything leave him on your IL as long as possible. All right. And if he does come back this week, the Mets start at home this week. Again, we're not including the weekend series at home against the Dodgers,

but going into next week, they'll start with the White Sox and then go on the road to Fenway Park. So at least that White Sox series, that could be a soft landing. But I do agree, you know, if you can afford to not use Quintana for that start, assuming he even makes it, that's probably a good idea. And just one other note here, and it sort of piggybacks on a discussion that we had on the Wednesday show about the Dodgers outfield.

They've signed Jake Marisnyk to a major league deal. So another short side platoon option that they have, you know, just about everybody on the Dodgers, they platoon. I mean, it's an exaggeration, but just expanding that even more. But we talked a little bit about Johnny DeLuca, so I would see a similar role there for Merisnik. Maybe he even takes DeLuca's spot. Yeah, it seems like Johnny DeLuca's day in the sun was even shorter than we thought. Perhaps. It does look that way. But I don't think there's much else there so uh you know since dvr is away i've just decided to get you know a little silly

he you know i think he's the one who coined the last segment the closer corner so i'm getting alliterative with some of these uh with some of these show segments so we'll go to the the hitter hangout some uh hitters uh just with with maybe some interesting trends or hitters even to target. I know you wanted to talk about Eli De La Cruz, and you brought up something that I pointed out on Twitter a week, week and a half ago, I think, that he's hitting a lot of grounders, which I found very surprising. And in the early going, he also wasn't hitting the flies and liners

that he was hitting very hard. That started to change. You certainly cannot argue with the results that De La Cruz has had. So I want to be clear about that. But is there anything here to be concerned about, to even take note of with that launch angle? I mean, I think it's important.

It's an interesting thing. You know, the reason it came to me is that, you know, there's an account on Twitter called Swing Graphs. And the person who runs that is DK Willard. And he has a book that I've read called On Quantitative Hitting. Quantitative. It's on quantitative hitting, yeah. And so he's a big proponent of vertical bat angle,

and he loves Joey Votto, as we all do, and thinks that one of the reasons Joey Votto is so great is he maintains a positive vertical bat angle, or like a good vertical bat angle, even on high pitches, like he manages. And in fact, if you watch Joey Votto step to the plate, his practice motion, his practice swing, I swear to God, he's trying to maintain like a lower,

like a steeper bat angle on a high pitch. So the next time you watch Joey Votto step to the plate, he does this weird practice swing. And I swear to God, it's like if you look at where his bat is, he's trying to have a bat like this on a high pitch. And so I have a new toy in Stealth Plus. You've heard me maybe overemphasize it or overutilize it,

and there's been some pushback even from our listeners and i i understand that i when you have a new toy that has been validated and has some some merit um in the space you kind of you know you kind of start to see the world through that and so i i think to some degree uh this account sees the world through that and so he said oh you know el El Dario Cruz is good, but he could be so much better if only he could improve his attack angle. Well, you know, I just wrote this whole piece about attack angle being a spatio-temporal thing.

So like, you know, the attack angle is higher on pitches out in front of the zone. And so, you know, are you asking a guy who strikes out 29% of the zone. And so, you know, are you asking a guy who strikes out 29% of the time and does not have, you know, natural patience, you know, are you asking this guy to get out in front of the plate more and, and, and get and catch the ball out in front more to improve his attack angle? Because if you're asking him to do that, he may strike out 35% of the time. do that he may strike out 35 of the time and so you know what i would say is like there's a whole complicated set of of metrics and approaches for hitters and it's rarely that simple to just be

like and i'm guilty of this like i you probably have heard me say why does he just throw his high stuff plus stuff more often you know or throw you know why does he throw this pitch more often throw this pitch less or whatever it is you know um you know with grayson rodriguez i was like why does he throw this crappy cutter so much you know it's because of he's trying to get lefties out he's trying to figure stuff out you know there's there's coaches have good reasons and so with ellie dot cruz maybe letting the ball travel and not being super pull happy is is allowing him to not strike out 35% of the time. So, you know, maybe what you're asking him to do would increase his power, but it would also increase his strikeout rate is what I'm saying.

So I'm saying I wouldn't let Elie Dierkruise's 59% ground ball rate right now convince me that his ceiling is any lower because a he didn't show those ground ball rates in the minors b hits the ball so dang hard anyway and c he has you know so many other skills that are speaking well of him um that i think the ceiling is still immense on him he's shown the ability to take a walk. What if he adds that to his current package? Then he could have a.350 OBP instead of the projected.310. If he just increases that launch angle to where it was in the minors,

you know, from 59% ground ball rate to 44% ground ball rate, he's once again a.35 homer hitting guy. He's shown the ability to steal you know 30 plus bases i mean he's got 16 stolen bases 135 plate appearances and he stole all the bases including home in one inning so i think the upside for him still is like 275 350 600 550 so you're talking about a guy who would hit 35 homers and steal 45 bags 50 bags I mean if there's anybody

in baseball that has a Cunha like upside it's Eli De La Cruz and I so I don't think the 59% maybe the 59% ground ball rate is a reason to consider him a sell high in this year. Well, it's not been that long.

And like I said, initially, he wasn't hitting flies and liners very hard. That's come around. So who's to say that that ground ball rate won't rise up in the second half? And the other thing, too, you mentioned his minor league profile. The thing that he's done consistently and it's carried over is he hits a lot of line drives and that's probably related to that attacking yeah um so you like you said it's keeping the strikeout rate down it's probably also helping to keep the babbitt bob yeah so and you've got a guy who what's his true talent babbitt i mean i would love to say 325 batting average 440 babbitt that's memorex but uh but he he ran some really high babbits because

he's so fast he hits the ball hard so you know you see these projections 350 might be his true talent babbit yeah which you know that's that's something i mean that's that's a big deal so and would that change if he if he had a really high vertical bat angle. He would literally be a different player if he had a 45, 50% fly ball rate. And I don't think he'd be better. Probably not. And he doesn't need that in Cincinnati. So that's an interesting breakdown with him.

Not that anybody's worried about him, but it does give you some food for thought. And you mentioned Joey Votto. Yeah, he's somebody I wrote about. And Joey Votto's there. Yeah. And Joey Votto's the king of VBA, and you don't think they're going to talk to each other at all?

Right. Right. Exactly. They absolutely, I'm sure they are. This episode is brought to you by Peloton. Forget the pressure to be crushing your workout on day one. Just start moving with the Peloton Bike Forget the pressure to be crushing your workout on day one. Just start moving with the Peloton Bike, Bike Plus, Tread, Row, Guide, or App. There are thousands of classes and over 50 Peloton

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The Canadian Armed Forces, a message from the government of Canada. I wrote about Votto in the waiver column this week because I was a little surprised. His roster rate on CBS. waiver column this week, because I was a little surprised. His roster rate on CBS, and we do here tend to rely on those CBS roster rates because on Yahoo, ESPN, rates tend to be pretty low for a lot of players. Or I should say, rather, they tend to be higher. Well, they're shower leagues is what I'm trying to say. So it's a better, there's a little bit more variance with the CBS rates.

And so I was a little surprised to see that Votto, Votto's still at 53% on CBS, which means in those shallower league formats, it's probably much lower even. Yeah. His minor league numbers did not look good. I mean, he hit 173 in the minors. It's kind of crazy. But in terms of his barrel rate you know that seems to be there his max cv is not all the way back so he's not all the way back he's

striking out more he's a slightly different player than he used to be but i think he's just leaning into his old man energy which is i'm going to have my awesome sense of the zone and i'm going to swing as hard as i can on every pitch that i think you know is drivable well you talked about leaning hard into stuff plus i lean very hard into uh average exit velocity on flies and liners how's he doing that and max ev is is a very useful stat but once somebody's been up for yeah i agree with you it means a little bit less i i do you know like resorting to the average on and separating that out from the overall and i'm trying to find vatos because i want to say i think he's averaging uh 99 miles an hour which is wow which is elite and uh let's see if i can get

find that where are you you, Joey Votto? 99.1. I shortchanged him a tick. Yeah, that's great. I mean, I haven't changed it off the qualified. You probably had to change it off the qualified to get him. Would you say 99? 99.1 miles an hour.

Oh, my God. That's higher than Showa Itani and just behind Soto, Gallo, and Judge in the top three if he qualified. Exactly. I mean, it's probably a little early to say that that's where he should be because they have 100, 200 balls in play. How many does he have? 35.

But I do think it speaks to his health. I mean, that's a good sign. 51% hard hit, that's a good sign. 51% hard hit, that's a good sign. So I do wonder where the true talent batting average is right now at 39 years old. But I picked him up in TGFBI, I think, or somewhere, and a 15-teamer, and I'm very happy to do so. And I think in a 12-teamer, if power is what you want,

I think he's an interesting pickup. I agree. I agree. I was surprised by the roster rate. I get it in a way because I was definitely slow to catch on thinking, okay, 2022 wasn't good. He was 38 then, 39 now. But yeah, I think he's been doing enough for long enough that it's time to look at him in the 12-team leagues. And I want to come back to a player that we talked about on Wednesday, a former teammate of Joey Votto's, Eugenio Suarez.

Because we were both like, where's the power? What happened? And he's been a really frustrating player for me because I've got him rostered in a couple of places. And you break it down in terms of exit velocity, launch angle, strikeout rate, walk rate, all that. He's the same guy he's been since like 2018, if not further back. And yet the power numbers, the run production numbers are down. Well, I had been sleepy on the fact that Suarez has actually been hitting really well the last few weeks.

So the turnaround is already starting to happen. He's 94.6 on flyers and liners that's top it's 80th right there was shay langoliers lane thomas lourdes goriel jr corbin carroll like it's not terrible that's not and it's a it's a career high for him wow all right none of those guys are 35 homer hitters like he used to be though yeah i just think you know it's the same it's practically the identical profile he's had for years and in all those years he's been on a 30 homer plus pace so and i get it you know seattle uh those home numbers are probably going to be depressed but

this is his second year there uh and he hit 31 there last year yeah joey vato or eugenio suarez you had to ask yeah i'm the one who brought them both up so i would go vato yeah i would go vato i do trust i also just like that i like having the the home park like when if you have like a starting pitcher and you're like oh i could start him away from home like he's a yankee he's like a borderline yankee pitcher but i'll start him away from home it'd be great uh then you're starting a pitcher away from home and just generally players play better at home so if you're like oh i'll have suarez i'll just play him away from home well he'll be away from home which is generally not as good as away from home with joey vato at least you can be like well I'll just start him at home and then start from there right you know and that that feels like a better you know proposition there yeah yeah no that that makes sense that makes sense and you know it's funny because I

struggled a little bit with that comparison but it's a comparison I actually had to make in the column so I shouldn't have shouldn't have had to think about it that much i i put uh in 12 teamers two to three percent on vato one to two percent on suarez so yeah at least i'm consistent uh one other player this is definitely more of a deep league uh consideration but i also just like i was sleeping on a you haneo suarez uh waking up david peralta has been hot for like six or seven weeks now. Yeah. And he's in that platoon, but he pretty much starts every single game against righties.

I wouldn't suggest picking him up in 12 teamers anyway, but in the deeper leagues where your options aren't always necessarily hitters that are going to start every game. That's pretty intriguing. He's out there in my TGFBI. Yeah. Yeah, I can see why he's out there in weekly because you're just capped on how much you're going to play him they don't play him

against lefties and I think he's he's got this is amazing he's got 13 14 plate appearances against lefties all year yeah I mean they like pull him unless it's like a blowout they like pull him out of games as his lefty 14 plate appearances against lefties all year. Yeah, that's incredible.

Unless it's like a blowout. They pull him out of games as a lefty, and they don't start him at the lefty starting. So that just caps him. But in daily leagues, you're right, a 961 OPS in June and a 1098 in July. I think it seems mostly like he's figured out his slugging stroke. And let's see if his fly ball rate has been up in July. It has.

So just, you know, hitting fewer grounders, hitting the ball harder. His hard hit rate in July is the best it's been. And it's grown. His hard hit rate has gone from 30 to 35 to 37 to 44 and every month for David Peralta so I think he's a totally credible guy I had a weekly lineup decision today my 20 teamer we're in devil's rejects where we're up to third or fourth and we needed a utility guy for the short term. We picked J.J. Bladet. It's a keeper dynasty. So I just felt like if one of these guys is going to play their way into a keeper situation,

Bladet is a little bit closer to likely. And then Bladet is playing against lefties and righties. That may change a little bit once they're fully healthy in the outfield. But with Ree's hurt, we just felt like we'd get more playing time with Bleda. And this weekend, Peralta gets Verlander, Scherzer, and Senga. But if we're talking about waiver for the week after, I think we may even make that change again on Sunday where we drop Bleda and pick up Peralta because he's definitely useful.

Yeah, let's see. Looking at the schedule next week, there's Cole Irvin, so that's a game he's certainly not starting. And then Haney and Perez, so actually probably not. Maybe not the week unless you want to stash them. Yeah, unless it's like put a dollar on him and put him on your bench and then have him for the week unless you want to stash him for yeah unless it's like put a dollar on him and put him on your bench and then have him for the week after

exactly exactly so yeah and stuff that you need to think about this time of year a lot of and sometimes it makes sense to get the guy even you know a week or two ahead of time for a dollar then you know be sitting there you know because there's all these people who are doing the

he got the Rasball Streaminator and they're like, oh, they've got this week's projections and they're all sitting there trying to do the same and they're like, ooh, David Peralta's on the wire. I'm going to put like 13 bucks on him because he's the 45th best

bat from July 21st to July 28th. Well, what if you got him for a buck the week before? Yeah, there you go. Sometimes you just have to look for good players and sometimes just put them on your bench for the future as opposed to just scrambling all the time for this week alone. Yeah, and that's kind of what this column wound up being because I didn't i didn't

find a ton of great streaming options for hitters or pitchers so it was just like well here's somebody who's been doing really well for an extended period uh you know maybe more for the the long term than than for the coming week and plus it's you know weird too because some people have three game weeks some people i've got a league where they've split this week and next week into two five yeah this is a really strange time i think i so it's it's strange that way too so the the three three game week is always a rough one yeah absolutely uh all right well let's uh pivot over to those pitchers i'm keeping the alliteration here going with starter stuff and i'm going to clumsily segue uh you know into your column on park factors because they're they're not home at all.

Actually, I do. Right. There is a segue here. There is a segue here. Because we're talking about streamers. We're talking about starters. And the piece is about Petco. And so they've changed the IV behind the batter's eye or on the batter's eye.

And certain release points are might be favored this in petco this year uh you know slightly lower than usual release points are are maybe coming from a part of the ivy that people can't see so that is i think relevant uh specifically event, specifically later in the season when the Rangers come to town because Haney and Dunning both throw from that spot in the ivy. And so if you're looking, you want to stash that away in your brain for later, you know, when Haney and Dunning are in town there, I think they'll have some benefits. And in my piece, there's a link to the release point in question. So if you're looking at streamers in Petco, you can just go to that link, look through the release points

and see if they're on that list real quick. But secondary to that Petco thing, Toronto changed the walls. And they've become more pitching friendly this year. And I looked at the matchups this weekend, and it's irrelevant for a lot of them because a lot of starters that you would just start all the time anyway, Berrios, and then some guys that I'm not sure that I would say like, oh, start Tommy Henry in Toronto because it's now more pitching friendly. I'm not willing to go that far, but I will be watching the Ryan Nelson start in Toronto pretty closely because that is a type of pitcher that, let's say he was in Toronto on a Monday and somewhere else on a, on a Sunday or something on a Saturday, I would be like, so in the past I would, I would tighten up my sphincter

would tighten. I would be like, Ooh, I am not pitching Ryan Nelson in Toronto. No way. You know? And so I'm really, I'm really fascinated to see how he does, because if it is slightly more pitching friendly, Ryan Nelson also has these really weird splits where he's been better away from arizona i don't believe that those are predictive in any way but you've got a couple like weird things coming together and this ryan this ryan nelson start in toronto is just fascinating to me it's away from home against what should be a great offense that hasn't played well at home that has a new home park that has new home park factors has actually changed the walls it's it's such a confluence of events i i love it i love it i have maybe he'll just come

out and just do a bland ass you know four or five innings three runs and we won't know what happened but you know i kind of think it's going to be on off it's either gonna be great or horrid that'll be yeah fun to watch. And that's Friday night. And then this is, believe it or not, DVR and I have done the Ryan Nelson versus Tommy Henry breakdown in recent weeks on this show. And I'm team Tom Henry. Oh, no.

Tommy Henry. Really? Yeah. And not just because he went to Michigan. Yes, but because he went to Michigan. That's hilarious. But no, because it definitely relates to this analysis because the one skill, you know,

and I do think it's a skill that he's shown so far is he's really mitigated the exit velocity on, yeah, my favorite stat, flies and liners. And I think that there might be enough working in his favor against a pretty good lineup i would actually i'm not saying i would start him but i'd be more likely to start him than ryan nelson where i feel like that's just like you say total coin toss what might happen there yeah i guess uh you know tommy henry maybe it's my stuff less bias he hasn't been showing that um one thing that tommy henry does do i think better

than um than uh nelson is mix it up he's got uh three pitches he throws 20 of the time and another he pitches another pitch he throws 12 of the time and uh ryan nelson if i remember correctly is a guy who's uh throwing a ton of fastballs i know he's trying to come off of that but yeah two pitches he throws 20 of the time and then change up he throws 10 of the time so i i think that's been to his detriment i think that uh nelson needs to mix it up more he doesn't trust the secondary pitches henry at least comes out there and trusts the secondary pitches and keeps it really mix it up i just i got a text from a hitting coach uh major league hitting coach just a second ago about how uh pitchers need to go from

like starting pitchers need to be the west coast offense and the relievers need to be the spread you need to be like there needs to be a difference between starting pitchers and relievers because if the starting pitchers are just going to go hard and throw fastballs and sliders for five innings, and then the relievers come in and they're just going to throw fastballs and sliders for the next four innings, then you're going to see the same thing the whole game. And, you know, I think that's to the detriment of many pitchers. Now, if you're, if you're Spencer Strider, Hunter Green, you can figure it out. You can be so elite that it works. But for everybody else, for Ryan Nelson, I'm sorry.

Yes, your fastball has good stuff plus. Your slider has good stuff plus. You need to throw the other two pitches. You just need to do it. You need to trust him. That's the only way it's going to work for you, I'm pretty sure. And so he could actually look across at Tommy Henry, who I think has worse stuff, and that's why I'm not into him.

But if you could look at the house, the Tommy Henry would be like, man, that guy just mixes it up. Maybe I should just mix it up. Yeah. Well, I don't know if that's the secret sauce for,

for him in terms of what he's done well, but yeah, I'm not excited about either starter in Toronto, but you've made me a little more interested, at least, with the park factor analysis. Well, at least now you can watch, hopefully, with no skin in the game and learn from it. This is interesting to have two borderline starters

going into Toronto out of the break and see how it goes. Because, also, Toronto has played 10 fewer games at home than on the road. So they're going to have a very home-friendly schedule this second half. And so if you believe that it has become more pitcher-friendly, there is going to be more opportunities for streaming where one of them is in Toronto. Great stuff. Try Tim's new Sweet Chili Chicken loaded wraps and bowls today.

Take your taste buds on an exciting new adventure for lunch or dinner with our delicious new Sweet Chili Sauce. It's time for sweet chili chicken. It's time for Tim's at participating restaurants in Canada for a limited time. Well, I want to go back to the Padres and Seth Lugo, who doesn't relate to your analysis at all because he's got a very normal release point. But your article did get me to take a closer look at him and i'm glad i did because he's on a very nice run last four uh games that lugo has started 21 strikeouts and two walks over 22 uh innings should be on higher and you've got a 59 ownership rate on lugo yeah on cbs so you know i'm putting him here in the streamer category because he's got the Tigers this coming week.

We can see how he does in Philly on Sunday, which is obviously a tougher matchup, tougher venue. But he's got the Tigers next week. The idea might be that he doesn't do well in that one and he's cheaper for you and you pick him up after that because at Detroit, he's lovely. It doesn't get too much better than maybe Oakland, but Rocky's away from Coors,

but it doesn't get much better than at Detroit. So yeah, I'm saying streaming possibilities, but I think there's more there for Lugo than just that. But let's talk about a few pitchers who are probably only available in 10 and 12 teamers and maybe even necessarily all the 12 teamers but brian woo uh i'm actually kind of surprised he's as available as he is i think his cbs roster rate is around 70 so it means he's could be there in your 12 teamer a couple of home starts uh we've already talked about how we like that in seattle and he's got the

the twins and the the Blue Jays. So I guess the Blue Jays are, yeah, the Blue Jays then go on a road trip. So we've got Wu with that two-step. Emmett Sheehan at Baltimore, at Texas. So a couple of shallower league two-start streaming options. Anything to dislike here? No. I mean, I think it's actually's actually just it's a finer needle where

you're like woo or she and like which one if if because some people might be looking at that as a choice and um i think i would take uh woo you know uh home uh for both of his starts toronto tough offense she and at baltimore is not what it used to be but Texas, those are two pretty good offenses Wu is secretly throwing two sliders at least and that's not showing up in a lot of places because I was worried that he was just throwing basically a four-seam sinker and sweeper and I was worried that what does he do against lefties

with that sweeper but I was worried that what do you what does he do against lefties you know with that sweeper but i've been looking at his pitch charts and he's throwing at least two sliders and so i think it's basically um where he's got one type of slider against lefties and one type slider against righties uh he's kind of a two pitch pitcher against lefties and a two pitch pitcher against righties but it's's better than Graham Ashcraft, who's like a one-pitch pitcher against lefties and a one-pitch pitcher against righties. I like Wu for lots of strikeouts, not a lot of innings.

So I'll take Wu over Sheehan. That's Savali at Pittsburgh. I think Savali's a pickup. So, you know, if he's out there yeah i guess i would take that woo to start over savali in a streaming situation but if he's just out there on your roster on your waiver wire like i think he's like a top 35 40 pitcher like every league savali should just be owned i think yeah so yeah under under rostered for sure. All right, let's get to some more widely available streaming options.

And I'm actually going to start with a streaming option that's not really a streaming option. Looking at the Red Sox, because they still basically just have a three-man rotation. Last thing I read about Nick Pavetta was that they were not going to have him start. I don't know if that's just a mere technicality and if they plan on using him after an opener. I don't know what the plan is with Pavetta or Chris Murphy for that matter. with what would be the two-start weeks when the four and fives line up. That would be at Oakland and then at home against the Mets. So any interest in Pavetta or Murphy with the possibility that they get two long relief stints, if not actual starts? Yeah. Pavetta has been pitching better in this role um and they're they're even talking about

like you know this has been so great and why would we take him out of this role like you know he's you know this is this is what he's born to do i don't know if it's um what it is it's also weird that like the stuff plus models always like pivetta I've even had team analysts be like why isn't Pavetta better you know I've had that question asked of me um and so uh of those two I'm taking Pavetta um I also like those matchups for Boston so I think that's a sneaky good pickup also um what's tough in this short week in some places is like, what do I do in a short week for these three games if my starter is not starting? You know, you could put in like a setup guy and hope that he just gets the close, gets a save randomly,

or you could try to put in one of these bulk guys and hope that he gets you a win and he gets into a game. I mean, it's better than putting a guy in your weekly lineup that you know will not pitch yeah you're right so it's like you know i tried to get some relievers and uh you know picked up some relievers on on fringe stuff where i could just i'm gonna put this reliever in for a week and next week he's gonna drop him for a starter but it's better that i get one inning or two innings with a K or whatever, you know, than just throw a starter that's not going to start. Yeah.

And maybe get a counting stat, a good one, while you're at it. All right. Well, let's get to some actual starters. Anthony Descalfani. This is another one I've not seen an update on. He made a rehab start in the Arizona Complex League on Thursday so I don't know if things went well enough there that he's going to come back but

presuming that he does I'm not throwing him at Cincinnati, I'm washing it anyway alright so there we go to make that a whole bunch easier there's a new alright well I think there's going to be a lot of that this might be a quick section here, which is why I've called it Anyone to Stream with a Question Mark.

Tyon, though, Tyon is somebody I've been watching, and I don't think he's as terrible as his results have been, man. I really don't. I don't know what it is. I take a little bit of hope from that start against the Yankees. And versus Washington versus St. Louis at home. It's two starts. He went into Yankee Stadium and pitched really well. He's trying to figure out how to... His pitch mix is

changing. He used to be all cutter happy against lefties and now he's finally thrown the four seam again. So I don't know. Of these group of pitchers that mostly make my spine shiver, I think Jameson Tyon is my pick to click. All right. Do you see anything encouraging with Drew Smiley? Same matchups.

I mean, I think he's generally underrated. I guess I don't hate him either. You know, the thing for him is just when does he give up the homers, you know? If you could know anything about even where the wind was blowing in his first start in Wrigley, then I'd be more likely to pick him up. All right. That's good.

But Wrigley with like, you know, warm weather Wrigley with the wind blowing out, that makes me a little bit more nervous about Drew Smiley. That's a guy who gives up homers. Yeah, absolutely. All right. Well, we've talked about Dave Dunning, we talked about him Wednesday We talked about him already here

I don't think there's anything at home Against the Razor Dodgers That is advantageous in terms of his His running point I mean, against those two offenses Nope Rather not I might rather take the next guy

Alright, let's talk about matt manning first of all he's got the good matchup you know coming off the uh partial no hitter and then good matchup at kansas city also good venue and then uh at home another good venue but against the padres yeah the padres are scuffling a little bit i just i don't see anything you know the the near no hitter um aside notwithstanding i just don't see anything, you know, the near no hitter. Aside. Notwithstanding, I just don't see what's in his profile that would get me feeling confident even with those matches.

Yeah, I mean, it's a decent breaking ball, but he's not turning it into a lot of whiffs and not a lot of strikeouts. So, yeah, I can't. He's not a rock solid pick to click or anything but um i might put him you know if we're ranking all these ones that i've said you know uh tyon's uh in the first is it's comfortably number one for me manning smiley and pivetta are interesting to me uh in differing degrees um but uh tyylan's the only one that I would,

I kind of reached to kind of pick up, I think, add an extra dollar or whatever, you know? Okay. Well, we'll see if anybody reaches that level in the rest of the list. Carlos Carrasco at home against the White Sox on the road. That second start terrifies me. Yeah.

First start's good. We can split them. Maybe there's something there. Brian Hoeing, I'm assuming. I think the Marlins have a little bit of, as far as I've seen. Yeah, because there's Cueto up too. Uncertainty at the back of the rotation. But I think we're going to see Hoeing with the double dip at St. Louis.

Yeah, but I think it's going to be him and's going to be like him and quato or something yeah oh like piggyback i mean because what's the rotation right now lizardo garrett sandy oh so edward is hurt is trevor rogers hurt still and he's still hurt too so so quato and hoeing are in the rotation? So Hoeing for sure. Last I read, Cueto was not at least necessarily going into the rotation. But I'm not sure who's... They can always also bring Perez back up soon. They could. I don't love Hoeing, no. I don't see anything there.

At St. Louis is scary. So not enough Afro against the Rockies. That's Louis is scary. Um, so not Colorado. That's pretty exciting. I mean, I, I'd like that greatest matchup. I'll throw hoeing into the backend, um,

around Manning, I guess I think behind Manning, but you know, Manning might go to, uh, might go to someone who's just, uh, really excited about that.

No hitter. Probably. And then make them look good against KC, and then maybe get blasted by San Diego. All right, a few more. Dakota Hudson I'm definitely not excited about, but the matchups are not bad, versus Miami and then at the Cubs.

That's like... See, the funny thing about hudson is like that's just you want k's but you could come out of that week with like four k's oh absolutely i mean yeah over under over under on six k's so uh that's scary yeah all right well uh we'll finish up here with three starters i don't hate and actually think you might but ryan yarbrough uh at home against detroit uh gotta like that matchup but then at the yankees i don't know what to make of the yankees but i still fear them at the stadium although you know he's a lefty and one of the things that's that's most iconic about yankee stadium is the right field porch right

right so maybe suppressing uh lefties just enough by being a lefty i think you could i'll throw him ahead of the point i would easily yeah easily his last His last start was at Cleveland. In fact, that was his first start in over two months. And that was one run over six innings, six hits, one block, five Ks. And the guy just consistently has those. But he is. Very low average exit velocity and flies in line.

Also because he throws 80 poos. So, you know, people aren't going to hit it as hard. I do consistently prefer him even at 89.90 more than 86.8. Sorry, dude. I will have him against Hoeing, but not ahead of Dunning or Manning. No, not ahead of – Dunning's not even on our list. Not ahead of Manning and not ahead of Smiley. All right.

A couple more that I kind of like here. Christopher Sanchez, been very good. Four starts before the break for the Phillies, good results. At home against the Brewers, bad park obviously, but I think Brewers now are a pretty favorable matchup. Where do you side on starting Sanchez with one start? In my article, it was the weirdest thing that Philadelphia is also paying more pitcher-friendly, but there are no park changes to support it. I think it has more to do with the fact that they have four

hitters in the top 50 of reduction in WRC+. Four struggling hitters in their lineup every day just struggling. That can actually change a one-year park factor. Christopher Sanchez versus Milwaukee in Philadelphia. There's some interesting things going on there. Yes, Milwaukee's not a good offense. Rowdy had been struggling, is not even in it anymore.

They're struggling to find who's going to produce in a park that's been playing nicer. I could talk myself into it, but I'd much rather it came with a second start, so I could be like, and he also is in Detroit. Yeah. Be hard to argue with that. I'll be like, well, I'm going to take

a chance on this versus Milwaukee, but he has this other second start that's better. So... All right. Well, got another... If you want a one starter, I like this guy better. Okay. And with one more pitcher here uh tyler anderson so i think some you know some similarities with with yarbrough but uh versus pittsburgh

i i think you could yeah i i'd rather have i'd rather have tyler anderson versus pittsburgh than christopher sanchez versus milwaukee all right i think I would too, actually. All right. Well, let's talk about at least one other starter here because I know you wanted to talk about Lance Lynn. I don't know if there's others you want to lump in the category of, you know, some pitchers who have really struggled in the first half. You can also sometimes ignore my emails from, like, midnight, you know, side of the bed.

I know. I mean yeah at Lancelin I one thing that sticks out for me is that the strikeouts are there and you know stuff plus whatever model this or that aside you know a 28% strikeout rate against an 8% walk rate this is a guy I'd pick up. I think just from that. Yeah, let me see what this is. Because I have a feeling he's still pretty widely rostered. I think he's one of the few guys that were sort of top 40-ish ahead of the season that are not injured that are out on wires. Okay, on CBS, and again it's not perfect symmetry in terms of what that means on other platforms,

but 85%. So largely to me is the, he's out there. But I think also if you're talking trade deadline, like it's really hard to get to buy low on pitchers and you know, or to acquire starting pitching. And so if you're sitting out here trying to pry, you know, or to acquire starting pitching. And so if you're sitting out here trying to pry, you know, some stud pitcher off of somebody and it's not working,

like maybe just spend less and get Lance Lynn. All right. Yeah, makes sense to me. All right, let's finish where we always finish, you know, hit the closer corner. A couple of situations that you obviously feel free to add where you want. Well, actually, we should start with Jordan Romano because I've not been able to still find any updates on him

and his cranky back, his cranky lower back. I got to think we'll know more by Sunday. Yeah, I mean, it's just, I guess one of the questions is, if it isn't him, who is it? And with Swanson pitching the eighth, I think that trumps any sort of stuff plus that's coming out of Nate Pearson. That just shows the trust in the team. So I think it's Swanson if he has to hit the IL.

With the back, we're just going to have to wait for more news. And that would dictate, too, how aggressively you go because it's a short-term thing. At least we have three days to, you know. The manager has to do three manager meetings. So, yeah. The other one that you have listed here, you know, I think it's about time to start thinking ahead on the trade deadline. We're only going to have two weekend fab sessions before the trade deadline, and you don't want to be spending $100 on a closer post-deadline.

You'd rather spend $10 on them this week in front of that. Does Jordan Hicks go to a team? Does he close on the new team? And what does that mean? And I think most likely he does not close on the new team because the only two teams that I could see him closing on would be the Rangers, like that would trade for him also you know uh yeah right rangers and who ah there was one more team i can't think of another team but the rangers would totally

would he close for the braves would he close for the marlins yes i do well i mean puck's been good but i think he could close for the marlins i think you at least have a like a sharing situation there i don't think he'd close for the phillies oh he'd close the d-backs oh so and and those might be the teams most likely to trade for him so it's an interesting thing in terms of probabilities it's like okay the probability once traded is that he doesn't close except that the probability of being traded to these different places is highest to the places where he would close right totally makes sense greatest need in those for those teams so um the the problem is

that behind him i love looking okay he's likely to be traded let's look behind him well behind him it's probably just ryan helsey getting his job back uh maybe some maybe a week of gallegos uh till he gets healthy would the pirates trade bednar i tend to think not because i tend to think that they're trying to build towards a 500 team and and and kind of start start the winning cycle um if they did trade bednar you have a favorite there nobody uh no nobody really jumps out i think that might be one of those where it's like there's there's not a clear winner and so you know they probably go with multiple options and none of whom i like that much. Maybe Holderman. Holderman's pretty good.

Yeah. I mean, with a name like Holderman, he really should remain. In the holdings. Are there any other closers you think are likely to be traded? I guess like would the Mets could trade David Robertson. I hadn't thought about that, but yeah, I could see that. I've seen some things about Mark Leiter Jr., which maybe means a clearer path for Albert Elzali. I think Elzali is already the closer, honestly.

I mean, that's how I've been reading what's going on there. He's gotten most of the save chances. I'm throwing in holds on my stuff leaderboard here real quick. So in New York, holds. Let me do the last 14 or so so I can get a sense of what's happening. The last 14. Okay, so in New York, relievers by Stuff Plus. David Robinson, number one. Drew Smith smith number two with one hold dominic leone

he has one hold brooks raley is uh fourth on the team and stuff plus and has three holds and then there's obviously adam adovino down there with two holds brooks really is the lefty um but he has more holds maybe that's just because he's pitching against lefties i think there's at least a three to five percent chance that brooks really is closer post deadline that's not very that's a big number but it's not zero and that's assuming out of vino himself wouldn't get traded Yeah, because he could get traded too. Royal's going to trade Scott Barlow? I'm remembering, and I'm afraid maybe I'm misremembering,

reading something that they were not planning on trading. Liam Hendricks. Yeah, I would think he'll probably get traded the problem with that is that Liam Hendricks hasn't been quite showing the same stuff which is icky to talk about yes and is also hurt so he may just not get traded because he's hurt

Gregory Santos there has kind of surpassed Reynaldo Lopez And is also hurt. So he may just not get traded because he's hurt. Gregory Santos there has kind of surpassed Reynaldo Lopez as the holds guy and has great stuff. And, you know, I think right now it's sort of Graveman closing Santos and Lopez holding. But I had talked to a team that was interested in acquiring Ronaldo Lopez so he may be gone himself so Santos is a name a stash name yeah I think that's a difficult thing right because you project

the teams that would trade their closer but often times they do trade their top two or three I mean why not I mean I think right now in White Sox, we're approaching why not trade anybody. Waving to my son. My wife has them doing manual labor. Well, I don't know if you're going to join them, but... No, they do the manual labor, and then I come when it's time to go poolside.

Oh, well, that's sweet. Well, we could keep this podcast going until they're done, but I think we're actually done here, you know, so. Happy weekend. Yeah, so thank everybody for listening. And just a quick reminder before we do sign off here that you can subscribe to The Athletic

for $2 a month for the first year. That $2 gets you for the first year. That $2 gets you in the door for everything. He knows columns, everything fantasy going on, my weekly waiver wire columns, and the whole deal. So go to theathletic.com slash ratesandbarrels. And we will be back on Monday.

And as I said, I believe it's Tuesday. We'll have Derek Van Ryper back. So until then, everybody, have a great week. Thanks for listening.