Rates & Barrels - Breakout Players & Fantasy Baseball Sleepers: AL Central & NL Central

Episode Date: March 11, 2021

Eno and DVR discuss a round of intriguing spring news items before looking for breakouts and sleepers from each team in the AL & NL Central.  Rundown 3:59 Carlos Carrasco Injury 6:24 Frankie Montas Progressing Well 13:20 Kirby Yates Nearing Spring Debut 15:39 100-Inning Relievers, Starters Later? 25:47 Taking One More Chance on Nick Pivetta? 25:09 Xander Bogaerts "Pretty Close" to 100 Percent 32:00 Faith in Andrew Vaughn 39:39 Cheap Speed in Cleveland's Outfield? 45:19 Plenty of Fun, Late Options in Detroit 51:53 A Benintendi Bounce Back? 54:58 DVR's Case For Luis Arraez 60:04 Digging Deep on the Cincinnati Depth Chart 63:35 Finding Fantasy Gold in Pittsburgh 67:07 Obligatory Freddy Peralta Talk 70:56 Why Not Now for Tyler O'Neill? 74:42 Closing It Out with the Cubs Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarris Follow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiper e-mail: [e-mail] Please fill out our listener survey: https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/athleticaudiosurvey Subscribe to The Athletic for just $3.99/mo to start: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This episode is brought to you by Peloton. Forget the pressure to be crushing your workout on day one. Just start moving with the Peloton Bike, Bike Plus, Tread, Row, Guide, or App. There are thousands of classes and over 50 Peloton instructors ready to support you from the beginning. Remember, doing something is everything. Rent the Peloton Bike or Bike Plus today at onepeloton.ca slash bike slash rentals. All access memberships separate. Terms apply. Welcome to Rates and Barrels. It is Wednesday, March 10th. Derek Van Ryper here with Eno Saris.

Great stuff to talk about in this episode. The breakout series continues. We go to the central divisions in the AL and the NL. And we've got some spring news because things are happening. Players are breaking. Roles are being described by teams, everything's happening. And, of course, we're here with you on YouTube again today. So if you're watching us on YouTube, hit that like button, hit the subscribe button.

At some point in the distant future, maybe it's the not-so-distant future, I'm going to say distant future, not to overpromise, there might be some random fun things on the YouTube channel. You know, you could see you know making a sandwich for example that's great content we couldn't do that when the show was only a podcast but we could do something like that now that we have youtube so you know check us out there if you're one of the ogs so complicated how would i do that during the middle of a podcast oh we're gonna do going to do that separately. We're not doing that mid-show.

Yeah. That's what I'm saying. It's a little ways off, but we're looking for things like that. Or Edo takes his dogs for a walk. I think people are really interested in what's happening during your dog walks. I do have another dog walk thought.

So today it was raining and one of the dogs went out into like the mud to poop and so i had to i'm traipsing out and i'm getting i have like these this just caked on mud all over my my feet and then he doesn't finish the job and he's running around with like a little bit of poo hanging out the back of his butt and so i'm trying to get the poo he dropped and i'm trying to get the kids away from this like flying poop that's coming out the back of his and i'm trying to get the poo he dropped and i'm trying to get the kids away from this like flying poop that's coming out the back of us and i'm trying to get him not to eat his own because he keeps like trying to get back there and get at it and i'm just like that's all happening the rain starts coming heavier during this process uh and so i'm telling the kids to

put their their hoods on and like all this stuff is happening and one of the kids has uh has something that has a zipper on it. And he starts swinging it around. And he clocks me in the hand in the middle of all this. And I don't normally cuss that much in front of them. But recently it's been getting worse. And I let out the largest F-bomb just so loud. And I realized that normally I'm in the clubhouse, you know, a couple days a week at least

and I get my cussing out, I think. I don't know, like I cuss a lot more with baseball players and like in bars and neither of those things have been available to me. So like I need to go somewhere and cuss a bunch, I guess. I don't know. But that's what happened today on the dog walk. I am so grateful that my dog walks are not nearly as eventful as yours. And maybe that's the byproduct of having one dog.

Maybe it's the byproduct of having a medium-sized dog hazel a golden doodle not a puppy anymore yeah she's starting to figure out life as a teenage dog i think she's kind of in that phase as a a four-year-old good news on the the um interaction with other dogs front the dogs now have been trained all i have to say is what's in my pocket and i used to say something about a treat and then the other dog would go crazy so now the code word is what do i have in my pocket and they look at me instead of the other dog and so we're a lot better if the dog the other dog is good my dogs are good if the other dog is bad well it's progress and so, maybe we'll have some dog training videos on the channel at some point since Eno's becoming an expert in that. Let's get to some news, though. Carlos Carrasco dealing with elbow soreness he won't throw for several days. standpoint, where in the same ways that I'm really rooting for Trey Mancini to come back healthy and be very productive this year, I wanted to see Carlos Carrasco go have success with the Mets.

I know last year and even in the last couple of seasons, obviously dealing with a ton of health issues of his own, I just see him as one of those guys who he could still be really good if health doesn't betray him, but I wasn't really expecting him to be healthy. And as you were saying before we started recording, your injury metric flagged him as pretty high risk too. Yeah, what do I have him at? I have him at a 95th percentile for injury. And I don't think that's necessarily taking a lot of information from the mistime due to

leukemia. But it might have been. You know, definitely within this system, arm injuries are weighted heavier than days lost. But days lost is still a factor. And I'm not a doctor so I can't make that

length to say that this issue right now has anything to do with his leukemia. But I will say that he's always been a guy who's been a little bit injured. And so that's why I pushed him down relative to ADP and to projections in my ranks. Because I just, I wasn't confident projecting him for a full slate of innings. Now, he could still get to 160 or something, maybe, if this is just a bump in the road. But I think this does reflect the general risk that he represents.

And if you were to look at his ADP for March only in the NFBC, he was sitting around pick 62 overall in a 15-teamer, kind of the end of round four, beginning of round five, probably an SP2 on most builds, maybe a late SP1 in others. The latest he was going was pick 90. I have to think that until we get more information, that's probably where the ADP is headed, two rounds later than where he was, if not a little more of a discount until he's able to resume throwing and to start picking up activity again. Even with a two or three round discount, that's probably not enough for me to take on that risk based on what we know right now. We'll balance that out with some good

news. It looks like Frankie Montas is going to be ready to go in the rotation for the first turn through. Whether he's the opening day starter or not, I think remains to be seen. But his March ADP is around pick 162. So this is a guy you're getting maybe outside the first 10 rounds of a 15-team draft, at least right now, with positive health news. Maybe he creeps up a little bit. We've talked a lot about him and the splitter and how important that pitch is, but how quickly the command of that can come and go. Where do you stand on Montas this year, especially when you look at that reasonably discounted price compared to where he was going this time last year? Yeah, I think the full season, he has a stuff number for me of 102 and above average command too. I think the stuff number doesn't fully represent his upside because

his slider, as i've mentioned before gained uh like i think about two inches of drop over the course of the season so if you look at a full season stuff number you'll say oh you know his slider didn't have much drop um an inch or two of drop on a slider can change your stuff number a little bit so um I would say that health news like this would bump him in my rankings. I had him at 53, which was slightly ahead of ADP at the time, but behind projections, which the bat has him at around 41. So I think I would split the difference a little bit and push him up into around 45, maybe ahead of Joe Musgrove and behind Sandy Alcantara. I feel like Sandy Alcantara and Frankie Montas are not quite peas in the pod,

but they're comparable pitchers. They pitch in nice home parks. They haven't fully done it for a full season like you might want to, but they've shown changes in their pitch mix um and have great great velocity so i i feel pretty confident that that's a good place to put them somewhere in the low 40s gotta throw in a would you rather here we've got cory kluber would you rather oh my god frankie montas like a million times over did you know cory Kluber was sitting 90-91 in his first start? And I know it was just one inning, but in one inning,

if he was really doing well, he should have been able to blow a little harder than that. Fair enough. I'm kind of looking at Kluber's price and just saying, that's my reason to stay away. And velocity. Yeah, it's way higher than it should be. It's way higher than it should be.

Innings risk. Has he ever pitched in a park like that as a home park for his career? No. It's be. It's way higher than it should be. Innings risk. Has he ever pitched in a park like that as a home park for his career? No. It's true. Yeah, I mean, Cleveland is hitter-friendly, but not nearly as hitter-friendly as Yankee Stadium, so the home run issues could be as bad as they've ever been for Corey Kluber. How about Frankie Montes versus Kevin Gaussman?

Well, now at least you're talking about a pitcher who has a nice home park. Gaussman's there at 42, and I was talking about putting Montas 45. So I think that's a fair decision-making process. Gaussman, for some reason, shows as having a 75th percentile injury risk. And I'm not even sure why that is. Maybe that's reaching far back. He seems like he's been relatively healthy recently. I don't even remember injuries for him,

at least major injuries for him earlier in his career. It must have been just an accumulation of days missed at some point. You know what? They're both splitter guys. So I'm going to take the guy in the NL who gets to strike out pitchers and has that nice home park. But they're right next to each other. Yeah, I think that's fair. We did have a couple seasons in 14 and 15 where Gaussman was in the 112,

113 range with innings, but I don't know if that was because he was going up and down those years or if it was because he was hurt. Let's see if we got some minor league stats there. And we do. 14, he had 11 AAA starts that year. 13 had a bunch of innings down there. 15 had a couple starts down there, probably rehab at that point. So yeah, a little bit of injury history there, especially if you go back more than five years. One other name to throw in this group, Pablo Lopez goes earlier than all of these guys, but only by a little. Is he clearly ahead of them for you,

or do they actually belong in the same cluster? Pablo Lopez is top 30 for me. I like him. It's a varied pitch mix, above average command. Changed some things that I liked in the past. NL pitcher, home park, boom. I like that. Very succinct.

Let's get to Jordan Alvarez, who, of course, is making his way back from a knee injury. Could play in spring games next week. Not one bad knee. Two bad knees. Is it really that bad if he's playing with two weeks to go before opening day, though? That seems like enough clearance for me to feel pretty good about him, where he's going. What is the news?

Sorry, I totally cut you off. I'm such a d***. I'm such a d***. What was the actual news? He can play in spring games next week. So he's close. Really close. That's enough time, right?

Two weeks for a hitter like that? Especially a DH? Supposedly. enough time to get your timing yeah yeah uh there's i don't know i got one league uh where i've got like six keepers and i've got i've got uh alvarez and otani on the same team and i'm just i'm looking at myself in the mirror like how did you do this how did you back yourself into a corner when did you get them like Alvarez was he like a minor league keeper and Otani you got in an auction or a draft like how did you end up getting how far apart did you acquire them I was rebuilding last year and so I was just acquiring talent so I just figured in the offseason I could trade. But it is a problem when you do something like that.

And then people look at your team and they're like, oh, well, he'll just drop one of them if I don't trade with him. Yeah, you kind of just have to hope. I'll show them. I'll keep them both. There's only one util slot. It's not like I can play them both. It's a problem for sure.

I mean, I'm trying to think about the best way to attack it. I think it's to reach out to somebody who you know likes Otani specifically and just try and get a deal done and say, you know what? It's easier to trade him right now than it is to trade Alvarez. Unfortunately, I'd rather also keep Otani more. Yeah, but he's the easier one to trade for sure yeah that's true yeah so weird problem but definitely one that i have that's why i wish more leagues had two ut spots not just for me in that one specific league but i think not blocking people you know because they have one ut already is kind of ridiculous i think

and if we have dhs in both leagues it'll become more of a problem, I guess. Right. If that happens, that is one adjustment we have to make to league rules. Kirby Yates is scheduled for his spring debut Thursday against the Tigers, already kind of sitting in the 125 to 150 range in terms of his March ADP.

What would you need to see from him in spring outings to feel good about drafting him in that range? Is there anything he could show you Velo wise, stuff wise that would, would make you say, yeah, you know what? He's the guy.

He looks good. I'm comfortable with him at that price. Velo. Velo. And I'm going to be honest. I'm worried. I took Jordan, Jordan,

Jordan, Jordan, Jordan, Jordan, Jordan, Jordan Romano. Sorry. Jordan Romano. sorry donno jordan jordan romano sorry uh jordan romano i took jordan romano in the great fantasy baseball invitational just recently because a kirby yates said something at some point about feeling 90 percent uh yeah 90 90 90 is okay like yeah it's better than 70. It's not 100. Not 100, no.

And so if he comes out there and it'll be funny too because if somebody says, oh, he hit 94, I don't know if that would be actually good news. I would want to see a hit 95 because he was sitting 93.5, 94.5 the last couple years. So that's much better velocity. And I don't think he's going to, like, you think like 92-mile-an-hour guy with a split finger,

I just don't think it's going to be a closer material. And they've got Romano, and I've heard that the plan for Merriweather is 100 innings this year. And so, you know I guess that doesn't sound like Merriweather is going to be the closer of the future but if they ever did decide to make him uh just a reliever he would be closer very soon I think um and then Dolis is not bad either so they've got options and if Yates could just work better in the middle innings if he's sitting 92. All right, so we'll say 95, though, is kind of the magic number. If we see a 95 from Yates, that's a pretty encouraging sign

because I think they can settle on one closer pretty easily in Toronto. I think they brought him in in part hoping that he could be that sort of guy. We've seen him pitch as one of the elite closers when everything's working for him so if the velocity's back that might be a reason to bump him up just slightly in the ranks interesting that they had 100 innings as a target for julian merriweather because we have a target of 100 innings for alex reyes as well i think teams are just going to throw that number out there guys that are stuck in between like anybody anybody who's not quite locked into a rotation spot who they don't necessarily want to commit to as a short reliever, 100 innings.

That's the number. Is it 100 or is it actually closer to 80 or is it closer to 120? I did some research and 85, it was something that Jeff Samarza said to me. He said 85, if you're a reliever, 85 is the max. You want to do that once or twice

tops and then you're just toast um but maybe our like sense of how to use pitchers has evolved a little bit like maybe 85 so we're just talking about like true believer usage where they're just like they're getting you hot and like using you and in one inning stints i think the hundred that we're talking about with radius and merriweather is more like they're the seventh inning guy. No, they're the fourth inning guy and the fifth inning guy that comes out for two innings. And then they actually have a blow where they just rest for two days, three days.

It's like a mini starter where you keep them kind of stretched out. I was just saying this on the radio in St. Louis today. It's like if you want to have a chance of Reyes starting in the second half, then you're going to have to do something that allows him to be stretched out then. And so you can't just be like, okay, you're going to be one inning reliever, one inning reliever, and five innings. So I think both these guys, Merriweather and Reyes, are going to be hugely important because the Cardinals are losing You know, so I think both these guys, Merriweather and Reyes,

are going to be hugely important because the Cardinals are losing Miles... Michaelis. Why is it not Michaelis? All right, Miles Michaelis. You know, everyone's got me on my heels now, dude. I'm questioning every name that I say. Is it Enosaris? You turned Jordan Romano into Giordano Romano. I mean, you made him very Italian.

He's probably Italian anyway, but you made him even more Italian. Added some syllables. No, okay. So they're losing Myles Michaelis to some period of time, and Carlos Martinez is sitting 90 91 that's a problem yeah yeah i think that is a problem and so i think that it might make sense to start the season with both gant and ponce leon in the rotation and carlos martinez and alex reyes as guys who come in for two or three innings

on the back end of those starts. I'm starting to wonder if it's just kind of over for Carlos Martinez. This is where being on the YouTube channel is really important. He knows expression was worth a thousand words about how he feels about Carlos Martinez at this point. I am 100% out. I don't know what happened, but I don't think he kept up with his arm care routines or something,

but it's gone. You know, the movement's still okay, but he never had good command. So what, like, you know, what are you doing with 90-91 and not good command? I have a theory about the 100 innings targets. I think that's code for we think this guy is going to start eventually, because I think you'll get 100 innings targets on guys like Reyes and Merriweather. You might get a target like that on Freddy Peralta. You might get a target like that on Spencer Howard

or Nate Pearson or Michael Kopech. And I think the bulk of those guys are viewed as long-term starters, or at least they have the ability to become starters at some point this season, whether it's May, June, July, whenever that switch is actually going to flip, it might end up being more than 100 innings because of when that role change happens. But I think that's sort of their way of saying, we're going to wait and see. We're trying to monitor. And if we need a starter or we believe he's one of our best five starters, he's going into that role and the innings are going to be more than a typical reliever. But you're right.

With Reyes and with all those guys, you can't bring them in three outs at a time for the first three months of the season, get to the beginning of July and say, you're going five now. You have to send the guy down in the case of guys that have options, stretch him out in the minors or tandem start

or do something really funky that depletes your bullpen to get those pitchers where you want them to be. And it's probably not the best usage of those guys anyway. Yeah. And unfortunately for fantasy side of things, I don't think that they're going to, those types of pitchers are going to have any value in the first half. And it's going to be really hard to nurse them along.

If you have a short bench, I rostered a lot of these guys in the deep bench situation or in a deep league where you can maybe throw a Merriweather for those innings and just get the innings and the strikeouts and hope that he has a bigger role in the second half.

But in a 15-team, like a TGFBI situation, I'm not sure that they're great pickups. I think they go back to the, you could have one. But they'll go back in the pools. I think they'll all be back in the pool. A lot of those players will probably get dropped at some point, but I don't think you can really have more than one multi-inning reliever stashed away

hoping to get a starter. And if you have other issues that come up, like injuries, it's the same issue. It's the same issue as stashing the injured guys. it's the same issue as stashing the injured guys it's the same issue as stashing players who are not in the big leagues you you've got one spot to burn for a little while do you want to burn it on someone who's going to top out in that 80 to 100 innings range it's really tough skills wise to justify that if part of the 80 to 100 plan doesn't include occasional save opportunities too. So I would be careful with this group in mixed leagues in particular. But I do, I really do like these players in draft and hold.

And especially in mono leagues. These guys fit really well on AL and NL only staffs. Because their price is suppressed by poor projections. Because the most you can project them for is 100 innings. And then people don't know what role to sort them in in their head so they're like, well, I'm not going to draft Julian Merriweather. Like Jason Collette picked up

Julian Merriweather in ALA where I thought that was smart because nobody wants him as a closer and nobody wants him as a starter so you get him super cheap but if you get 100 innings out of Julian Merriweather this year, I think they'll be good. And in that league, innings are everything.

But in TGFBI situation, NFPC situation, you've got a seven-man bench in a lot of those leagues. I would rather spend my one big shot piece on hitting rather than pitching because not only are the bus rates different on hitting prospects blah blah blah but um i just feel like uh your pitching slots on your bench are going to be fluid right you're going to just be like oh two start week coming up oh this guy's injured you got to drop him and you him. And your whole pitching staff is just going to be moving and moving. And so if you have this one pitching guy, they're just like, ah, Merriweather, if I just dropped him, that's a pitcher I can drop for another pitcher.

You know what I mean? I'm going to do that. So what I did in TGFBI just now was Joe Adele for my second or my third bench spot. And he's going up in a piece that I think will go up tomorrow, might go up Friday, that Joe Adele had a, what was it, top 15 max exit veto last year.

So that's enough for me to say it's in there, any amount of unlocking. Also, the second part of this is the right field situation is projected to be below replacement in LA now. Right. Anaheim, whatever. So he sets his own timetable. There's an obvious opportunity. Exactly.

If he gets it together, they're not going to tell. Dexter Fowler immediately becomes a fourth outfielder, and they'll be okay with that. Exactly. If he gets it together, they're not going to tell Dexter Fowler immediately becomes a fourth outfielder and they'll be okay with that. Absolutely. I would put Kelnick, Wander, Adele, they're all in that group. One of those guys is fine. You can't have multiples if you're talking about a mixed league with no IL spots because you need blank time. Adele's going to be the cheapest. By far, yes. He will be the cheapest by far. And Adele's going to be the cheapest.

Jonathan Hernandez has a UCL sprain. I was really bummed to see this one when Levi Weaver put it out there on Tuesday. No surgery for now, but this feels like surgery delayed. It does open the door back up for Jose Leclerc to possibly open the year as the Rangers' closer, and there was a chance he was going to do that anyway I guess the question I have coming off this news is is there someone other than

the clerk that you're now interested in as a result of this injury for Hernandez who I think kind of falls to the undraftable category for now given that you know even though he could be throwing again in a month it's going to be probably another month after that before we're actually getting quality innings from him and there's a ton of risk and waiting for that, not knowing the opportunity, but is there a deep stash in Texas that you think could emerge to possibly take that job from Jose Leclerc or do you just bump up Leclerc? I think bump up Leclerc for most leagues, uh, an AL labor reserve, which is about the deepest you can get. I mean, you're talking about 12 teams have selected all those players,

and I picked him in the fifth round of reserves, so we're talking, I mean, we're talking real deep. I took Matt Bush, so that's just a name to remember, I think, at this point. But, you know, if there's some buzz in camp, and you start hearing the name Matt Bush some more, then he moves ahead of, like, Jolie Rodriguez, And all of a sudden, Bush is the setup guy. And Hernandez gets bad news. Yeah. He throws hard. Matt Bush, I didn't realize.

I know he's been around for a while. He's 35 already. Man, it would be kind of from the Daniel Bard corner of the comeback player of the year, a guy that really has been forgotten about. Bush has had all sorts of off-field issues, of course, but it would be a nice ending to the story if he could have a really good year in that Texas bullpen. Let's get to the Red Sox for just a moment. Do you have any deep league interest in Nick Pavetta?

He's looking like he's the favorite to open the year as the Red Sox fifth starter. Nick Pavetta has burned the fantasy community on multiple occasions. He is cheaper than ever, and it looks like he has a job. Should we throw a late dart in his direction at the end of drafts and auctions? late dart in his direction at the end of drafts and auctions. He's got above average stuff, which is the first reason I ever touted him three, four years ago at this point. But over time, I think the command has been obvious,

that he's got near reliever level command. And now he's in a park that punishes i mean philly philly's leans hitter but i think and then fenway can actually you can take advantage of it like there are ways that it leans pitcher like certainly if you give up all your contact to right center, it would die out there. But I just see balls. Balls off the wall. That's what I see. Yeah, I have not been throwing that late dart. I have found other pitchers who haven't disappointed us before that I can be

disappointed in for the first time. So I go down that path instead. Why do it again when I can do it for the first time? Why not experience disappointment with someone new? Why do that for the third time? That should be a tagline for Tinder or something. I didn't make it to the dating site, dating app phase of life. I was married prior to that happening.

And I know for people who are out there trying to meet people that way, especially right now, it is not easy. Hang in there. It's just, that's a great tagline for those apps based on all the stories I've heard from people who have been using them. Jake Sealy, he's willing to share his dating life, and it's pretty hilarious. Jake could write a book. Yeah, he could write a book about his experiences, because they have not been very pleasant to this point. Last Red Sox thing, Xander Bogart, during an interview on WEEI in Boston said his shoulder is, quote, pretty close to 100 percent, which if I translate pretty close into a number, I come up with 10 to 15, which means he's at about 85 to 90 percent, which is good. Not great. It's somewhere near where Kirby Yates is feeling right now.

We could see Bogarts DH-ing in spring games over the weekend. So are things progressing in a positive direction for you with Bogarts to the point where you are comfortable with him at his previous early round ADP, or are you still looking for a slight discount? Are you saying, hey, he's great, but I'd rather not bring that injury risk onto my roster because the price is simply still too high? Yeah, I want that discount. I think if he stole bases, I'd feel like there was a bit of a more of a soft landing, but there's a

lot of his value is tied up into power. We got the ball deadening. You got a 5% drop across the league in homers likely coming. I'm not saying that he has the kind of fringe power that gets really affected most, but maybe a little bit comes from the shoulder and a little bit comes from the ball, and all of a sudden you're talking about a 275 hitter with 20 homers. That's not what you want to pay for. So I think that's in the realm of possibilities still, and so I'd want to discount on him.

So my thought on Bogarts, it kind of fits into some ideas that Ron Chandler wrote about on The Athletic. The piece went up on him. So my thought on Bogarts, it kind of fits into some ideas that Ron Chandler wrote about on The Athletic. The piece went up on Wednesday. He was saying you need to have values and ADP kind of working side by side. And if your values are saying that someone who has a 10th round ADP is actually a first rounder, you have to figure out where that sweet spot is, where you're getting the player you want, but not overpaying. I think that still kind of applies to injuries too. Because at a certain point, a guy falls enough, you say, this is actually pretty good value.

I'm going to take that chance. I think the discount I'm looking for on Bogarts, he's got an ADP so far in March of 34.5. I think I need to see him fall to 45 or 50 overall. Around. Just because there's so many other really good players clustered in that same area that's where i'm at so i'm probably missing out unless that scenario unfolds it's possible that scenario unfolds and if it does then okay i'll take the chance because

i don't think it's that bad but i do think it's the kind of thing that could linger possibly lead to an early season il stint cost me a little bit of time caused me to have to go to a waiver wire option or a bench option and i'm losing a little bit of production in that shortstop spot from somebody i spent a third round pick on and i don't don't think that's quite the way that i want to play it given that i have plenty of alternatives if if donaldson's calf injury keeps him off the field and that's a problem there's also the type of injury where they're they can still be on the field, but they aren't 100%. And that, I think, is almost just so hard to gauge.

Honestly, I think that's part of Carlos Correa's history. I've had interviews with him about it, and I've demonstrated it in his exit velocity before. And he's admitted that you can kind of use exit velocity to track his health and so when i see like carlos correa have underwhelming seasons i think he was dealing with something it was that sex rib or whatever sex rib just sounds like a band name it really does, we're all over the place today. We should probably just move on.

Yep. There's no segue there. No, there isn't. Let's get to our central divisions, breakouts and sleepers. And yes, we know sleepers might not really exist anymore, but we're going to try.

We're going to try and talk about some players that no one else is talking about or writing about, or at least they're not talking and writing about them very often. Unfortunately, for the Chicago White Sox, I don't have a player like that. I have Andrew Vaughn on the rundown because, and I'll admit this, he's probably the most captain obvious call of this entire episode for the players we're talking about in this section. of this entire episode for the players we're talking about in this section. But Andrew Vaughn is a bat-first rookie who's got a spot to call his own and a good lineup in the American League. The threshold for him to keep that spot all season is pretty high. If he falls on his face, they could trade for a corner outfielder who's not a good defender and just make that guy a DH or bring in another first base type and make that guy a DH. But Vaughn should hit. I have a lot of reason to believe that Andrew Vaughn absolutely will hit.

And unlike the other prospects that we talked about earlier, the Wanderer, Kelnick, Adele group, Andrew Vaughn has playing time right away. So you're not waiting for him to get that opportunity. So you could have him on a roster with someone else you're stashing and still have that possibility of getting someone who really exceeds expectations, especially at what's a pretty reasonable price. I mean, if you look at where Vaughn is going in drafts right now, it's outside the top 200 overall more often than not, right? So you get past that point in any draft. It's kind of a what could go right situation. And at 221 overall, I think you compare them to like hunter dozier and ryan mcmahon it's kind of like the i'd rather see what's behind door number two situation

than go with those more known quantities even though i think dozier and mcmahon are fine roster fillers at that price vaughn could be more than that vaughn could be maybe this year's alec bohm and if you look at where bohm's going right, that's a pretty nice profit at the current cost. Yeah, I've been watching his spring ABs, and I saw him at Cal. His father broke my bat in BP for that fun piece that I did where I raced Albert Pujols in stickman form.

But I've just been really impressed. I think he takes really good ABs. And I don't think he's an all or nothing hitter that will have a huge strikeout rate. The one question I do have is if he's going to be like a 35 homer hitter. I think he might actually be more of a guy who has a decent batting average

and 25 homers or, you know, south of 30 kind of deal. But what I have seen in spring that I like is laying off of a lot of low and away breaking balls. That's got to be step one, man. I mean, he's a right hander. He's going to see a ton of right handers. If he can lay off that, that breaking ball away, then he's going to set himself ton of right-handers. If he can lay off that breaking ball away, then he's going to set himself up for a lot of success. So I like that. I also wanted to point out we got some bad news today on Joey Votto. He's got COVID, and he's going to be out for a little bit,

and hopefully he doesn't have it as bad as some of the other older players I've talked to where they weren't able to get 100 cardio for a month but what long story short what I would have would what I like is the old young pairing at first base so Rowdy Tellez and Andrew Vaughn represent the young for me, and Brandon Belt and before Joey Votto, but, you know, Crone's price is getting up there, but maybe Hosmer. There are old first basemen that are super cheap. And I've noticed that people are pushing corner infielders and first basemen

higher than their projections in a lot of drafts. And I get it because they have nice numbers and, you know, people get excited and they say, oh, I need to get one of these top ones. But you can do an old young pairing where you end up with Vaughn and Belt or Vaughn and Krohn. And you might end up getting 90% of what they got

for way, way cheaper um and you could be filling in your infield and your outfield in the meantime so that's kind of where i've i've headed in a few leagues um i had one league where i had belt vato and telez now i have vato on the deal yeah i think with vaughn i mean i'm looking at him as a clear-cut corner guy for year one right you're going to have a first baseman on the roster in most cases before that and you are supposed to draft i think some coverage for corner and ut if you go a little younger like that so i think you're right to point out those older players as really good ways to to have that depth it could be someone at third base i guess maybe like a kyle seager too if the first base pool dries up yeah i'm kind of assuming that that either you had two third basemen in the situation or something

like that. I mean, yeah. My Velt. My Velt. My Votto Belt. My Votto Belt. My Velt. My Velt situation with Tellez in there, that's all to cover first base. I have other options at corner infield. I thought this was a difficult depth chart to find truly overlooked players on. They've got good quality everywhere. Padres S. A little bit, yeah. And a little less redundancy even than San Diego. So you can't even take three guys battling for shares of two spots.

I think the obvious one is Kopech. The other obvious, Captain Obvious one is Kopech or Cease, just as young pitchers that haven't taken that jump and could. And they obviously have all the velocity in the world. Both have poor command scores. And I would generally not want to invest. I wouldn't say go get Cease in Keeper and Dynasty situations if the person wants a good price for them. I only want them if they're cheap.

Cease for $4 in AL Labor was cheap enough that I thought, hey, this is up there with a lot of other $4 shots. The ceiling is at least very high. And he spent the whole offseason. Plus, one thing I like about Chicago is new pitching coach. I always like a new pitching coach with a pitcher that has been having some issues. So, you know, it's the best shape of life stuff where like, yes, every pitcher comes in. I cleaned up my mechanics. I'm more in my lower half. Yeah, so that, yeah, my glutes, my whatevers, my obliques, my, yeah,

I got it. I've heard it a million times. But you add in the new pitching coach, you know, and the fact that you watch Cease and you're just like, dang, man, this guy throws 98 high in the zone. He's got a hammer of a breaking ball and a good change. This could come together all the right time. He's got a little more to work with than Ronaldo Lopez ever did.

If you had any faith in Ronaldo Lopez, you should have a little more faith in Dylan Cease because there are more ways for him to put pieces together, I think, where he's starting from. I think when Lopez was trying to break in as a starter a few years ago, there were plenty of people out there saying he's probably a reliever,

and they were just bad enough as a team where they could afford to give him chances to develop as a starter. Let's go over to Cleveland. Daniel Johnson is the player I like there. I think this qualifies as a legitimate sort of sleeper. We're digging pretty deep here. More for AL only, draft and hold.

Did not get picked. Didn't get picked in AL labor? Did not get picked in AL labor. I don't think Luis Renjifo did either. I think if you are, like our friend Nando Dufino, still a believer in Franklin Barreto, I think you should shift that love in the direction of Luis Ranjifo, as we mentioned on the Monday episode.

But Daniel Johnson, look, Cleveland is thin in the outfield. I think with Johnson, you have speed. You have a passable hit tool. I think he's a good enough defender to actually play in a corner. Because he gets on base, they could get away with him maybe being their right fielder. A lot hinges on what happens with Oscar Mercado. A lot hinges on how they decide to handle first base. If Josh Naylor's playing first base, that's really good news for Daniel Johnson. I would say in normal size mixed leagues, he's a wait and see watch list sort of player. You're

not thinking about Daniel Johnson in a 12 team mixed league right now. In a 15 teamer, he's the kind of guy you could throw your absolute last pick at, kind of wait and see what happens in the next few weeks. If he earns a job, he sticks. If he goes down or looks like a backup, cut him, maybe come back to him when the opportunity opens up at some point later this season. But we did see him go 21 for 25 as a base dealer at AA back in the Nats system in 2018. Everywhere he's played in the minor leagues, he's been at least an average WRC plus guy, but really good at AAA in 2019,

a 120 WRC plus there, a couple of 150s on the ledger at a few stops as well. So I think there's a little bit more here than people realize, and he's never popped on top 100 lists. So I think that's part of bit more here than people realize, and he's never popped on top 100 lists, so I think that's part of why he's relatively obscure. Yeah, yeah. I'm a little bit lower, maybe. I did read Zach Meisels. I was in the middle of the draft reading Zach Meisels' roster projection

for the Indians again, trying to figure out why Daniel Johnson wasn't going to make it. trying to figure out why Daniel Johnson wasn't going to make it. But I do think some of it hinges on Jake Bowers, actually, if he makes the roster or not. Jake Bowers is out of options, so that's always a consideration where maybe they like Daniel Johnson, but because he has an option, he goes back down. Jake Bowers, you know, instead makes the roster you know flails a little

bit and then either gets traded they try to sneak him back down to the minor leagues um once people's 40-man rosters are more complete i mean there's all there's like the science of roster building that's uh kind of icky uh in some ways but uh is the fact that there are players that will make rosters just because they have options players that will make rosters just because they have options, or not make rosters just because they have options. I think there might be something like that going on with Daniel Johnson,

but definitely one I would stash. It isn't the easiest roster there either, because, frankly, some of these players aren't any good. Then, on top of that, the ones that are fairly combed over, I think Andres Jimenez, the draft cost is there. So you're kind of banking on him to beat Ahmed Rosario.

And there's a world in which Ahmed Rosario takes the centerfield job from Oscar Mercado, or is a backup centerfielder slash shortstop, and so Rosario and Jimenez can both make this roster, I guess. I would say this. Jimenez's shortstop defense is better than Rosario's. Jimenez's speed, from a fantasy standpoint, Jimenez's speed is better than Rosario's. Jimenez's speed, from a fantasy standpoint, Jimenez's speed is better than Rosario's.

Rosario's pop is maybe slightly better, but Jimenez has added a leg kick and has a little bit of ceiling there when it comes to pop. So I think Jimenez wins that and could get you something like 10 homers and 15 stone bases, 275. Yeah, he's not cheap though. Yeah, that's

my one complaint with it, yeah. 164 overall in March. I mean, multi-position eligible, the speed that you mentioned, he's an efficient base dealer. I think if you're looking for value in Cleveland's middle infield, we talked about Ahmed Rosario on Under the Radar yesterday. Pick 347. I mean, that's worth a dart. He's a good enough defender to play shortstop still. If they do send Jimenez down,

clearly could play second base if something happens to Cesar Hernandez. And they have talked about that center field path. So at price, I like Rosario where he's going. I just wish they hadn't brought back Cesar Hernandez because we wouldn't have to worry at all about the playing time. Cesar is a good one. He's a good one. Overlooked? Yeah, he's the oatmealiest oatmeal.

I mean, dude is a metronome. I mean, listen to his batting averages. 272, 294, 294, 253, 279, 283. One bad year. And the year that he hit 253 he had 15 homers and 19 stolen bases. So I think it's likely that he hits

279-ish with like 12 homers and 8 stolen bases next year. 6 stolen bases. Yeah, that's possible. It's pretty boring. It's deep leagues again, though. It's 15-team mixed leagues and deeper,

and draft and hold where you just need playing time, AL only where you just need playing time. It's not enough of a ceiling where you could see him really being shallow mixed league relevant. So it's all about the league context, I think, in that case, too. I want to see what Josh Naylor does over a full season, too, by the way. I hope he plays first base. I hope they just send Jake Bowers to a team that's not trying to contend,

and then Bowers can maybe get some playing time there. I don't think Bowers is a regular in the big leagues. I think he's just more of a bench piece. But, you know, we'll see if he sticks in Cleveland or not, because you're right. They're going to probably try and sneak him through at some point when rosters are full around the league. Let's go to the Tigers. We had Cody Stavenhagen on Fantasy Baseball on 15 on Wednesday morning. Plenty of fun players to talk about there, of course. Casey Mize, Tarek Skubal, Matt Manning, Isaac Paredes I think is pretty interesting. He brought up Jose Cisnero for saves, right? Because our friend Joe Jimenez probably isn't the closer.

He's at least in the competition. But he's failed enough times where I think it's time to say that ship has probably sailed. Cisnero, though, five years ago was in Houston and wasn't very good. Now he's throwing 96-plus. It's fastball slider, occasional changeup. Fixed the walk rate problem a little bit in the shortened season. I mean, this is the kind of guy that comes out of nowhere and does rack up 20 saves for a non-contending team if he gets the job.

And I think the thing that stuck with me that Cody said was A.J. Hinch is looking for one closer to give that spot to. He doesn't want to go as flexible committee-wise. So it's a name that I had not even thought about until Cody brought him up, and we're all scrambling for cheap saves. So Jose Cisnero, welcome to the bottom of the reliever rankings. Thank you. I like that one.

I'm going to store that one in my back pocket. I like it. Yeah, there's pop-up guys all the time, and they don't have to be as bad as Cole Solster. But, you know, I think that this is a really fun team, and there are some ways to win at fantasy with this team. Willie Castro was the name that I put down. Did you also put that down?

No, I loved him a year ago. I still like him now. He was the kind of guy that I liked around this time last season just because I saw so many ways for him to find time, and he took that opportunity and played really well with it last season. Yeah, he's the shortstop sleeper for me in my sleeper breakout piece that's coming out Thursday or Friday. A little tidbit from there. in my sleeper breakout piece that's coming out, uh, Thursday or Friday. And, uh,

a little tidbit from there. He's already hit a ball this spring harder than he did all last year. Only three players have been tracked with more hundred mile per hour batted balls this spring. Um, and I think that power is the last bit. I think without the, without that extra power,

he's going to hit two 70 with 20 homers and 10 steals, and that's fine. That's actually playable in most leagues, but there is the chance that he's unlocking power. He showed a little bit of that last year. He showed some of us that spring, and if he's more 275 with 25 homers and 10 steals, that's getting him over the hump and making him kind of starting MI in almost any league, I think. Yeah, I still think there is possibly one more level there. They actually have competition for position player spots. When you look at roster resource, you see a bunch of guys like Nico Goodrum and Harold Castro,

guys that are projected for sub-300 OBPs. Those guys are on the way out. that are projected for sub 300 OBPs, those guys are on the way out. There could be a parade of DFAs this season from the Tigers, and they might be the kind of team that can find some possible bench upgrades from guys like Jake Bowers. But they've got Isaac Paredes,

Willie Castro, Jamer Candelario obviously had a nice kind of consolidation year last year. They've got Mazzara and Renato Nunez as two sort of former prospects that bring a lot of power vying for spots. They are deeply slowly getting better. Yeah, because they may have fewer platoons than a lot of teams. They may actually find certain players that they just want to lock into that lineup every day, and that might make them a lot more valuable than some platoon guys on better teams who are being drafted ahead of them yeah yeah there's definitely something

one uh caveat for hitters is that the the park plays weird and uh robs some right center power um and so i think it uh it plays weird a little bit for righty oppo guys and lefty pool guys to some extent. But you've also had people with great power seasons there. So it's not impossible. Watch Matt Boyd today, perennial sleeper. Speaking of being burnt repeatedly. Yeah. Through a bunch of change-ups.

If you want to go down the Nick Pavetta trail again, Matthew Boyd's your guy. At least he's in a better park. Yeah. Threw a bunch of change-ups. If you want to go down the Nick Pavetta trail again, Matthew Boyd's your guy. At least he's in a better park. Get that third burn in. Yeah. Get the third burn in. But he's also had a pitch mix change where he's throwing the change-up more often.

He also has great K-BB. So that's supposedly a powerful stat. And if the ball's giving up fewer homers this year, he might be one of the people that benefits from it the most. I mean, he would be because I think, you know, somebody's asking me for strategy with the new ball and pitchers. And I think that nailing down a pitcher's true talent home run rate is way, way hard and takes a lot of sample. And so I would say that you would, you'd say pitchers across the board are more likely to just all lose 5% off of their home run rate. Whereas hitters,

it'll be grouped where the lesser power hitters lose more and the bigger power hitters lose less. Because if you're Giancarlo Stanton, you hit the ball 500 feet, take 5% off of that. It's still a moonshot. So on the pitcher side, though, I could see the – and if you take 5% off everybody's home run rate, that means the guys who give up the most home runs are the guys who are going to benefit the most.

So you heard it here, Matt Boyd. But, you know, among the young guys, I think we like Scooble best, but I think Turnbull still represents an upside play there with all his pitches. The seam shifted wake stuff that we've been figuring out about in this off season. Mize still has great stuff and I think could put it together.

So there's a lot of opportunity here for fantasy. And I like teams like this. This is where I go shopping a lot of times. Yeah, definitely take some shots in Detroit. You can kind of pick any part of the depth chart and find someone who's somewhat interesting at their deflated prices right now. And they're all, I mean, the young pitchers especially,

think about how much more highly valued they could be as a group this time next year. They could all have a case for top 100 overall status. That's within their range of outcomes. So it's kind of fun to have a few shots at those guys as late as we can get them. With Michael Fulmer closing. Maybe that's the way it all plays out. Let's talk about the Royals for a minute, though. Andrew Benintendi is my pick here. It's a little more in that Captain Obvious Andrew Vaughn

folder, but he's not bad. His 2020 barely happened because of injuries. And in 2019, I think you could look at Benintendi and say maybe he was trying to tweak too much. If you just stuck with what was working for him in 2017 and 2018, 15 to 20 homers with 20 steals and a good batting average plays everywhere. So I'm in on Andrew Benintendi. I think he bounces back. I think being in Kansas City versus those Boston lineups a few years ago probably bring down the counting stats a little bit. But that Royals offense is

better than we're accustomed to. So it's not nearly as much of a downgrade as it would have been two or three years ago had this happened. So I'm here for the Benintendi bounce back. Yep. Yep. I think 280, 15, 10 is within reach. That's playable in most leagues, especially at least five outfielders in the 12-teamer, I think, and deeper. So that's most leagues. I'm fading Mondesi, but I don't think he'll necessarily lose his job. I'm fading Nicky Lopez pretty hard. I just don't think he's good enough at any one part of the game

to really put the roots down there. And so I have a deep league sleeper, Hanser Alberto, and also Michael Taylor. Michael Taylor is a barrel sleeper. He just hits the ball really hard and plays good defense. So I think he could be

the all-time center fielder there. And I think Hanser Alberto might just steal second base away from Nicky Lopez over time. Yeah, Lopez could end up being more of a utility guy. I think he's good enough to play those other spots, even if he's not good enough to crack the lineup every day. He's probably the backup shortstop,

which means you could just make him the utility guy pretty easy. But I'm not convinced he's ever really going to hit, so I'm with you on staying away from him. I actually thought Edward Olivares was kind of interesting as the center field dart throw. But Taylor has been sort of crowded out with the Nationals. And had he had a chance to play more any of these last few seasons, maybe we would have seen the big year from him. So I think either one of them works, but they're in similar situations. I don't know if they're immediately mixed league options.

They're more wait-and-see options for me. Yeah, they were targets for me, basically, in labor. I wanted Taylor and Alberto, and I somehow didn't end up with them. Hmm. Hard to believe you missed there. But to me, I can't—that's sad. I'm touting Taylor here, and i think he's gonna hit 220 with like you know 15 15 type stats or if he gets the full-time job like 20 2015 type stuff

and hans alberto i'm touting him and i think even if he gets the job he's gonna hit 280 with like eight homers so this is some real deep league stuff here Yeah, a lot of filler in Kansas City where we're seeing value opportunities. Let's get to Luis Urias. I tweeted about him on Wednesday morning. Welcome to year three of me looking for more power from Luis Urias. Here's why I think it's possible. If you look at him, just look at his body. He's not tiny.

He's short, but he's not thin. He's not the kind of guy that's getting the bat knocked out of his hands. One thing that I like that he does really well, puts a lot of balls into the sweet spot percentage, right? The 8 to 32 degree launch angle. So he's doing the right thing in terms of the type of fly balls he's hitting. He just has to hit all those fly balls harder. He's been young for the level.

Controls the zone really well. Actually draws a lot of walks. Keeps the K rate down under 10%. And he can play all over the place. I see a David Fletcher sort of floor as their super utility guy. If Jorge Polanco struggles or if Josh Donaldson's calf is a problem and knocks him out for a stretch or some other injury takes him out. and knocks him out for a stretch or some other injury takes him out. We're talking about a guy in Luis Urias who goes from three to four starts per week to maybe playing every day and possibly having a spot atop the lineup for Minnesota

because of his high OBP, which drives runs. So you get average, you get runs, and you may actually get a little bit more power than we've seen to this point in his professional career. I think he's hit 10 home runs everywhere combined as a pro. I still think he can hit a dozen in a big league season as he continues to get stronger. Yeah, I think in shallower leagues, he's an ideal bench thing.

I have him in my 12-team dynasty as my bench. It's a head-to-head, so I have him as my bench average piece where I can play him anywhere and try to keep my average afloat in a head-to-head competition. I think in TGFBI or whatever, NFBC, I think he's a great guy

to have on your bench just to cover a position for a while. I don't think I'd want him in my starting lineup in almost any situation other than maybe AL only because I'm not so sure about the home runs and, you know, just batting average alone without the role, right?

Like if he was going to be the starting second baseman, then I could say, okay, that's fine. I'll do it for the batting average. But without the role, I'd rather have him on my bench. But I think that's a decent pick. And it's a decent pick on a team that isn't easy to sort of spot a sleeper on. This is an established team with established guys in all the roles. I had circled Matt Shoemaker and Ryan Jeffers as names that I thought couldn't be meaningful,

but those are deep league shots in the dark as well. Shoemaker, just hoping on him being healthy and the velo holding from last year. And then Jeffers had a great barrel rate last year, and if Garver doesn't get it back, Jeffers could steal more of the 60 instead of the 40 in that catcher timeshare. Yeah, I do like Ryan Jeffers, at least as a part-time player,

but does have that path to take over the everyday job. 1A, 1B is very real behind the plate for the Twins with both Garver and Jeffers on that roster. Not everyone has a deep pass roster. Let me throw one. Berrios, man. Berrios is perennially underrated. If you get Berrios as your SP3, which is possible this year,

according to some ADPs, I would love that. He's kind of an oatmeal-y starter, but I think even these oatmeal guys pop and have great years sometimes. So Berrios is a name for any league. My favorite kind of oatmeal. Someone sent us, is it baked steel oats? There's some kind of

better oatmeal. I forget what it is. I've got to look it up again. It's oatmeal. I already forgot about it. It looked better than a Quaker oats. But you can't well actually on oatmeal because, yes, we admit there are much better breakfasts. That's the whole point of oatmeal.

Yes, that is. Just to be clear, I was not laughing at the copy. I was laughing because I'm a 10-year-old in my head and a guy named Dingler grounded out for the Tigers.

Dylan Dingler, the catching prospect from Ohio State? I guess so. Hippo Vaughn came up when I was searching for Andrew Vaughn earlier, by the way, and I wondered if Hippo Vaughn had as much of an interesting backstory as Oyster Burns. It's a high bar to clear based on his Wikipedia page. Stabbing a teammate. Yeah, Hippo Vaughn never stabbed any of his teammates.

So a better teammate than Oyster Burns. And actually, he's a pretty good warist back in the day. A career 41.4, a war pitcher. There you go. We're talking about a guy that pitched from 1908 to 1921. The game was a little different back then. And oatmeal was a big deal during that era from what I'm told. Yeah, nobody struck anybody out, right?

No, but that was the first time that someone had put raisins in oatmeal. So people were freaking out at the time. Let's get to the NL Central. I'm still a believer in Nick Senzel. I think I made that clear at some point in the last couple of weeks. I would say Cincinnati doesn't have a ton of job battles. They punted shortstop. Good for them.

So I think that creates an opportunity for you to talk about a player that you think could be a little bit overlooked. This is so deep, dude. This is so deep. I'm reaching. This is such a reach. D Strange Gordon, come on down, baby. Starting shortstop for the Reds.

Wow. It's just insanity. But I have a 50-round draft and hold DC where you just, it's 15 teams, 50 rounds. You're really scraping the bottom of the barrel. And my last two middle infielders are Jose Garcia and D. Strange Gordon. I just figured

between the two of those guys, I trust them more to be the shortstop this year than Kyle Farmer. And as you said, they punted. I don't think either of those situations is great, but I'm rooting for D. Gordon because if he did get the job,

at least he would steal some bases. That would help us. On the waiver wire, at the bottom end of the pool, there'd be some steals available, at least until Jose Garcia's ready. I think Jose Garcia finishes the year as their shortstop.

Whether that happens May 1st, June 1st, July 1st, when that happens is more of an open question that I don't feel like I have a great read on at this point. But yeah, compared to Nick Senzel, who I think is literally draftable in maybe every type of league.

We just described the entire breadth of fantasy baseball right there. Yep. How about Mr. TJ? Of course, yeah. Mr. TJ? Of course. Yeah. TJ and Tone going to be their

hater this year. Right. So he fits into the 100 innings pitcher group maybe from before. Maybe. Chance he's going to

start some. Chance he's going to relieve some. Maybe it's a multi-inning relief role. Closer situation's unsettled. I think it's Amir Garrett

but if it's not Amir Garrett TJ and Tone could do it. Sims has been hurt though. Sims. for all closer situations unsettled i think it's amir garrett but if it's not amir garrett pj anton could do it sims has been hurt though sims it's true we have to we have to see some sims pitching they strike me as a team that will go more committee if you're kind of plotting out how progressive a team is with how it manages its pitching i would say cincinnati is on the more progressive end of that spectrum and would be more open to the idea of three or four guys getting saves. Their player development

crew definitely seems to be on the forefront, but Bell? David Bell? Not quite as far in that direction, but I don't know. I don't think he's miscast. A.J. Hinch wants to anoint one closer. That's pretty amazing.

Is that just the thing that they say because they're on a Zoom call or in a press conference and they get asked a question and they don't want to talk about it anymore and they don't want to reveal the specific plans? It's the worst part of closer divination, I think, is parsing manager statements. Because how many times have you heard like,

oh, he's our closer, and then a week later there's somebody else closing? I really hope that when we're making videos of you making sandwiches in the future that the closer role has been just completely obliterated by then and we have some other way to talk about relievers because it's really becoming a less fun part of this gig. Let's move on from Cincinnati.

Let's go to Pittsburgh. I think this kind of fits into the same level of interest I described with Daniel Johnson, Jared Oliva. And I think he was on our radar last year. If the season were a full 162 in 2020, we would have seen more of Jared Oliva in Pittsburgh. I think he may have ended the year with a job in a full 162 last season. There's a good chance he's the starting left fielder in Pittsburgh on opening day. That's at least in the range of outcomes. I would say his path to playing time is probably a little clearer than Daniel Johnson's right now. And I think you can get similar production. I think you get a little bit of power, definitely some speed back to back 30 steel seasons in 18 and 19 at high A and double A,

and pretty good OBP skills to go along with it. Yeah, I think this team may want to try and keep Anthony Alford in the big leagues just to see what they've got out of him. But he doesn't project well. He hasn't really shown the ability to harness the plate. I mean, you know, for his career, he has a 4.5% walk rate and a 35.2% strikeout rate. It's just, I mean, that's stretching the mind actually a little bit. But I don't think that Alford has that job.

So, you know, Reynolds is an interesting bat that's kind of oatmeal-y, but I think he'll be a starter, and I think he'll be their center fielder. I think, yeah, it won't take that long for it to be Reynolds, Oliva, Polanco in the outfield with Alford and maybe Dustin Fowler backing up because they've got a little bit of flexibility on the infield with Newman and Tucker being able to play multiple positions. So I think that'll be their bench is one of Newman and Tucker, Fowler and Alford, and then the catcher.

So I think that's enough flexibility for them. But most of the sleepers for me lie on the pitching side. I've talked about JT Brubaker before, multiple pitches and command. Chad Kuhl actually has two pitches and could be a useful sort of four and a half inning guy, almost in the mold of a glass now as I see it. If you hear about Kuhl adding a new pitch this spring, I think that would be meaningful.

Then my deep, deep league sleeper for this team is Mr. Cody Ponce, who has two good secondaries. I've heard that the team has some plans for his fastball. If he can change the shape of that fastball at all and get a little bit more ride, everything will pop. I like him for above average stuff, above average command as is.

And I think he's the sixth starter there. Interesting. I like Miguel Yajure from that cast of pitchers. I think we talked about him at the time when they acquired him from the Yankees. Young guy that has a pretty deep arsenal and command of that arsenal too. The results in the minors have been pretty good. He was just so buried with the Yankees. Drew Breaker-esque. Yeah. Now he's got a shot. He's got a little

more ceiling than some of the other guys on the depth chart just because of the difference in age. I mean, we're talking about someone who's 22, could be 23 in May. There's still more potential physical development there with velocity that I think would make him really interesting. But a deep enough arsenal that I think he's at least a back-end starter and not a guy that people have really talked a whole lot about to this point in draft season. Let's go to the Brewers where I have a contractual obligation to mention Freddy Peralta. I mean, look look it could happen i i think he's part of our role to be determined but will likely be prominent and in deeper leagues especially that plays woodruff woodruff linblom who linblom's interesting uh burns hauser is in it, and Brett Anderson if he's healthy. And then sixth starter is Lauer and Peralta.

I think Peralta is ahead of Lauer if there's a need in the rotation early. Brett Anderson is a walking need in the rotation. Oh, God. I mean, it's so unfortunate. That guy's had a ton of injuries. He hurts himself all the time. All the time. He hurt himself on a sprinkler head one time.

He hurt himself doing PFP or whatever, pitcher fielding practice. He hurt himself swinging a bat. I mean, he went through the list with me one time, and I was just like, wow, dude. Wow. I think he's got a pretty good sense of humor about the whole thing, having seen some of his tweets. He'll admit it. Yeah, he'll admit it. Yeah, I mean, he's kind of like their sense of humor about the whole thing, having seen some of his tweets. He'll admit it. Yeah, he'll admit it.

Yeah, I mean, he's kind of like their Wade Miley from a couple years ago. If he's out there going four or five and just letting the bullpen rest a little bit, great, that works, I guess. But I think you have to look at Peralta and say, hey, it's probably multiple innings in the bullpen if he's stuck there, or it's actually taking over a spot in the rotation. I do think Lindblom makes some sense where he's going to, though, as a bounce-back candidate.

Yeah, and he had good strikeout minus walk rates. He's been posting on social media the different changes that he's made to his fastball, trying to harness some more spin efficiency. A guy with a 12.4% whiff rate is interesting to me right away. And a lot of what he did was the home run, the Babbitt, but also his strand rate. I mean, that's just an old school stat right there. He stranded 67% of his runners. That normally is like 71%, 72% across the league. So between

all of his kind of luck stats scraping the ceiling there, and just look at the old school, like what's his whip? 1-2-8. What's his ERA? 5-16. Those things don't go together.

So something there for me on Lindblom. I'm not sure what the ceiling is, but I do like him as a pick. I have one here for this team that i have i have absolutely no rationale for i i've been i was i put him in my article tomorrow and my it's paper thin and i hope nobody notices it but luis yarias i like i actually don't think there's a reason to like him like i was i was looking at his bad ball stats they. They're bad. I mean, they're not terrible, but a career 3% barrel rate, the average around the league is 4.5%.

Max EV is not good. The hard hit rate is not good. There's just something to me that, like, what if we gave this guy a full season, and he's not even healthy right now, but let's say we gave him a full healthy season. What would he look like? That's what I want to see.

I think there's something there. Yeah, it's more of an open question. I think he's been so young to this point, young for the level everywhere he's been. If you're tired of him, he's only 23. I don't think anyone's tired of him, are they? Well, I heard this more with regards to alex reyes where it's like yeah you know we're still talking about alex reyes but yeah i mean alex reyes is 26 and luiz

urias is 23 there is a little bit of that where it's like you know how many you know how many times can you tell me about luiz urias it's like freddie peralta yep well that's what i had and bring them both up you brought one of them up but you don't have to twist my arm to get me to throw a late dart on Luis Urias. Let's go to the Cardinals. What about Tyler O'Neal? He's also kind of in there. We've talked about him a few times. It hasn't happened yet. I think with Tyler O'Neal, though, you can start to find some underlying numbers that make it easier to talk yourself into him. You see some interesting stat cast indicators that make you want to throw a late dart there. Yeah, I mean, for me, I used Captain Obvious Dylan Carlson in my piece, and it was just obvious

if you look at his reach rate over the season last year that Dylan Carlson was improving, but he has much more prospect predigree and much less failure at the big league level than O'Neal has to date. But yeah, you just look at walk and strikeout rates for O'Neal going from 4.9% walk rate to 9.6, going from a 40.1% K rate to 27.4. He lost some power along the way. So there is a fair choice maybe happening there where he's like, are you going to strike out a bunch or are you going to hit for power? Are you going to strike? Are you you going to strike out a bunch or are you going to hit for power? Are you going to not strike out a bunch or are you going to hit for power?

But if he puts it all together, tantalizing, he's one of the best athletes in baseball. Him and Sam Hilliard, to me, are peas in a pod where just tremendous athletes. Sam Hilliard is a top peas in a pod. We're just tremendous athletes.

Sam Hilliard is a top 10 sprint speed. And I think O'Neal's is not as impressive, but it's up there. So you got these guys who can run real fast, hit the ball a mile and have terrible plate skills. But O'Neal has shown better advancement in those regards than Sam Hilliard. Yeah, O'Neal, if you look back through the minor league numbers,

pretty efficient as a base dealer. He's always been good about drawing walks. Strikeout rates in the big leagues have been high, but they're not so high that you can't imagine things working out for him. I think he's, how could I say this? I think he's maybe capable of doing something like we've seen Teoscar Hernandez do. As the time piles up, it could be a kind of low average, not a great OBP. Not as bad defense for the real life to keep him on the field a little bit more.

But maybe a little more speed. So I do want to believe in Tyler O'Neal one last time because the price is as low as it'll probably ever be. And if it doesn't work out, you can cut him. But you think about how the playing time is going to work in that outfield. He might be the everyday left fielder, right? I mean, it could be an O'Neal, Bader, Carlson outfield without a lot of pressure. I think the one guy that maybe eats into outfield playing time

and doesn't play out there is matt carpenter if matt carpenter's hitting enough to get on the field somewhere but then like is carpenter actually going to play second base at this stage of his career or is he just a true bench player yeah yeah it'll be interesting to see how much he can he can play second um i see some sleepers emerging in the back end of that starting pitching situation. I think the best place for Carlos Martinez is the bullpen. So as I said, if Gant and Ponce de Leon are in that rotation, Gant has a starter's arsenal. He doesn't have starter's innings.

So I would say both Gant and Ponce de Leon are really interesting guys to put on your bench at the early season as early season streamers, basically. They're on your bench. You're going to start them at home in St. Louis. You're going to start them against weaker opponents while it's cold. I don't necessarily consider them guys that you would pick hoping to get 150 innings of good numbers out of. They're not that kind of sleeper.

They're more like, this is what I'm going to open my season with, and then I'm going to drop them for a streamer or something else later. Let's go to the Cubs. We'll close out our central sleepers and breakouts with them. Kind of tricky to find someone. We've talked a ton about Alec Mills. I think he's one of your guys based on a lot of things that really matter to you. So he could certainly just fill that spot based on all the previous conversations

we've had. Second base is a weird spot for them though. David Bodie, Nico Horner. I think because of Nico Horner's pedigree, I'm just assuming he's got a chance to win the job. We still really haven't seen game power from him yet, though. And I don't think there's quite as much hit tool from Horner as we've seen from someone like Luis Arias, which makes me turn more to Bodhi as the more interesting stack cast player as someone that might be better than we expect because he ends up with more playing time than we expect.

Yeah, I mean, I do think that Nego has a good hit tool. be better than we expect because he ends up with more playing time than we expect. Yeah. I mean, I do think that Niko has a good hit tool, and there have been, I don't know, maybe it's, maybe I'm like looking and I'm like, you know, are you just about to say something about 15 plate appearances in rookie ball? No, don't do it. I say that I believe there's maybe a little bit of power there, but he hasn't shown it

and his skill set almost seems best suited in that utility role. I think he can play some outfield. He can definitely play backup shortstop. He can play every infield position. Also, he's a righty and Bodie's a righty, so there's not going to be a natural platoon situation. And Bodie is a

stat cast guy. When I noticed him coming up to the big leagues, I asked somebody with the Cubs, how do you spot him? They were like, EV. Look at his max EVs, 114, 113, 111 even last year. Barrel rates, 10% on over in two of his three years. Hard hit rates. I think they might end up betting on him and just using Nico where they can use him.

Yeah, career 240, 338, 415. That makes Bodie a bit of a sleeper. Yeah, Bodie, I think, has a little power, a little speed. Seven for eight as a base dealer now the last two seasons. So I think he's probably a guy that comes away with more playing time than most people are projecting. I don't know where I'm drawing the immediate lines for him playing time-wise. Certainly not a 12-team mixed-league guy from the jump.

Maybe one of your last picks at a 15-teamer, though, to have that middle infield spot filled. He has to hit with the playing time. I think he deserves to be in the Josh Rojas, Luis Urias grouping of interesting guys who might have multiple eligibilities that might be useful on your bench in a 15-teamer. You've summed it up perfectly. bench and a 15 teamer you've summed it up perfectly uh one last name just adbert alzalea uh just he's a he's a stuff play if uh trevor williams uh can't get it together or if alzalea just out pitches them there's a possibility uh they break camp with alzalea uh as the fifth starter so i don't know i don't know that I would push that past 50% and make it a

claim that it's a likelihood. And I've talked about Craig Kimbrell being a guy I'd like as being cheaper than he should be. That's more of a, you know, a 12 team play or any team play. But Kimbrell pops for me when I look at the step chart. Putting your name on Craig Kimbrell in this 2021 draft season. It's risky, but it could absolutely work. And if he's the guy, then 30 saves are easily within reach. He's my closer one in TGFBI. In fact, those two closers in my TGFBI are Craig Kimbrell and Jordan Hicks.

It's high risk. I know it. I'm not going to tell you that it's not, but I like it. Could work. Lots of Ks, maybe bad ratios, but lots of Ks likely coming from those two guys, given the stuff that they're bringing at this stage. That is going to wrap things up for this episode of Rates and Barrels. Lots of ways to connect with us on Twitter. He's at Inoceros. I am at Derek Van Ryper. Be sure to get a subscription to The Athletic if you don't have one already. $3.99 a month gets you in the door at theathletic.com

slash ratesandbarrels. You can email us. We're going to catch up on emails very soon. Ratesandbarrels at theathletic.com. Be sure to check out Ino's piece that he collaborated on with Brichiroli. Really good piece looking at how teams increase velocity or fail to increase velocity with their pitching

over the years. So I think that's a really fun one to read. And of course, we've got updated rankings, lots of great fantasy baseball content dropping really each and every day at this time of the year. So be sure to check that out. So, for Eno Saris, I am Derek Van Ryper. We are back with you on

Friday. Thanks for, you know, Sarah's I'm Derek van Riper. We are back with you on Friday. Thanks for listening.