Rates & Barrels - Breakout Players & Fantasy Baseball Sleepers: AL East & NL East

Episode Date: March 12, 2021

Eno, Britt and DVR look for breakouts and sleepers from each team in the AL & NL East, before discussing several tweaks that MLB is experimenting with at various minor-league levels in 2021. Rundown 6:10 Still Buying Austin Riley? 11:12 Excited About Trevor Rogers & Edward Cabrera 15:12 Is there a Great Marlins’ Hitter On the Way? 19:48 Do the Mets Have Any Undervalued Players? 25:22 Can the Phillies Get it Right with Spencer Howard? 30:16 A Pod Divided: Victor Robles 36:48 An Opportunity for Yusniel Diaz in Baltimore? 44:58 When Will Jarren Duran Arrive? Buying Dalbec? 50:33 Banking on a Deivi García Breakout? 53:37 Can the Rays Fix Francisco Mejía? 59:51 Get Rowdy 63:12 Minor League Rules Experiments Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarris Follow Britt on Twitter: @Britt_Ghiroli Follow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiper e-mail: [e-mail] Sign Up for the The Athletic Best Ball Cutline Championship Here: https://nfc.shgn.com/signup/baseball/AthleticBBCC Please fill out our listener survey: https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/athleticaudiosurvey Subscribe to The Athletic for just $3.99/month to start: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This episode is brought to you by Peloton. Forget the pressure to be crushing your workout on day one. Just start moving with the Peloton Bike, Bike Plus, Tread, Row, Guide, or App. There are thousands of classes and over 50 Peloton instructors ready to support you from the beginning. Remember, doing something is everything. Rent the Peloton Bike or Bike Plus today at onepeloton.ca slash bike slash rentals. All access memberships separate. Terms apply. Welcome to Rates and Barrels. It is Friday, March 12th. Derek Van Ryper, Eno Saris, Bridge Rowley here with you.

It is part three of our three-part series looking for breakouts around the league. Today is the AL East and the NL East. Got a few other things we're going to talk about in this episode, including some experiments that are going to take place in the minor leagues. Jason Stark had a piece outlining some of the details, and it's wild. Different stuff at different levels, but good to sort of do these things in isolation, I guess, and figure out what works and how it impacts the game and maybe other things that happen as a result of making these changes.

The Athletic Cutline Fantasy Baseball Contest went live. That starts up on Monday, so if you'd like to play in that, it's free for athletic subscribers. There are some prizes. We'll put the link in the show notes. We'll talk about what makes that a bit different at the end of the show. First, I just want to say thank you to everybody who voted for us in the Baseball Pods

bracket on Twitter. We were deemed co-champions with our friends over at The Pitcher List, which is awesome. We had some really tough matchups along the way against some friends over at The Sleeper and The Bust, among others. The CBS podcast, that was a tight battle earlier this week. And it sounds like bots maybe influenced the final. So we have a co-championship here in 2021. But we're really happy that we have that.

And, of course, we appreciate Chris from Baseball Pods for putting that together. So be sure to check that out. And check out some of the other shows that are in the bracket too. It's really cool that we live in a time where there are enough fantasy baseball podcasts to put them into a bracket like this

and to play it out March Madness style. Yeah, I mean, we were all talking to each other and it looked like we were doing all right against the pitcher list, which I was surprised because that's a great show and those are great people. And we're going to have a pretty exciting thing where because we're co-champions, we're going to do a co-super pod on Monday, I think, where it'll be the four of us. And I think the general idea is to debate some of the pitchers we disagree on,

which I think will just be a lot of fun. But it was really weird because we thought we were doing well, and I was, you know, before dinner with like two hours left, I'm making dinner, we're winning 53-47, there's 2,000 votes already in the bank, and I'm like, okay, this is going to be pretty hard for them to overcome so quickly. And then I finished dinner 20 minutes later. There's 2,500 votes and they're up 60-40.

And I thought, I don't know if this exposes me as a cynic, but I was like, oh, they dropped the hammer on us. I thought they had a Slack message go out during dinner that they waited to drop a bunch of votes on us. And so I thought it was like a whole strategery thing. I didn't even think bots right away. But Nick and Alex are just such quality individuals. They hadn't ever thought of even dropping the hammer on us, and they immediately went to Twitter and said that this wasn't right and that something was wrong. So, even though

they won 55-45, we think about 500 of those votes might have been from a bot. Anyway, this is why we can't have nice things, I guess. It's just for fun, it's supposed to be. Yeah, it should be a really cool pod and I can't wait to listen to it.

It's amazing to me as somebody not as shocker, not nearly as well versed in fantasy baseball as you two, to see the growth and the interest as it continues to get bigger and bigger and we'll get into later hopefully a way for us to

participate with the novices like myself and the people listening who aren't fantasy baseball nerds aren't nearly as well versed um but it was cool to see how many people were like i love rates and barrels i love pitchers list i can't choose between my children and it's like yes you can pick the one with the most potential i always think everybody with kids is lying when they say they don't have a favorite kid. I'm like, come on. You have a kid. You love all your children in a way that you could only love your own children.

But you probably do have a favorite kid. Let's be honest about that. The way that is for me with the two that I've got, one is very much like me when I was growing up. And then one is very much not like me. And so I know that it seems like a cop out, but I love them both very different. Like I will admit it's a different kind of love because one of them I'm like, what? Like the younger one, Calvin, like most of the time I'm just like, what, what? And the older one,

I'm like, yeah. The older one, which one do you love more? Which one? It's like, it's a little bit like, do you love yourself or your wife more?

Myself. I can't really stop to think about it. The younger one's a little bit he's like the other one's a little bit more like my wife and the old one's a little bit more like myself i'm a little bit harder on the older one um so i don't know uh but but like the older one wants to play dungeons and dragons and the younger one is like knee deep in like. And we have these... He's very tactile. He just throws himself at art and stuff. So just different guys.

On that note, hopefully Eno's kids don't stumble onto our YouTube channel and learn more about how they're weighted in the minds of their father. Parenting pod coming soon. Another channel, another playlist that we can work on in addition to our dog training videos and sandwich making videos that will happen at some point in the future. But let's get to our breakouts. Let's start in Atlanta. And we've talked about this throughout the week.

There are some teams where there aren't really a lot of spots up for grabs. So finding a true breakout or a deep sleeper is a little bit more difficult. I'm going to say I still believe in Austin Riley, though, guys. We saw him take some steps forward with his plate discipline last season. And I think if you look back at his minor league track record, especially in the upper levels of the minor leagues, he has this pretty clear pattern, getting up to a new level, having the strikeout rate jump, making some adjustments, and then kind of tearing it up. And he's there to hit, right? This is an offense that's really good top to bottom anyway. really should favor Austin Riley, barring something catastrophic from him at the plate. I think he's an easy 25 home run candidate with room for 30-plus if he really just takes over that job and runs with it from day one this season. Yeah, I had him down in the breakouts today that came out for possibly hitting 270.

I think that's the part that's the breakout. I think the power is there. If he puts together the power with the new strikeout rate, I think he might be able to hit 270. I think that's the part that's the breakout. I think the power is there. If he puts together the power with the new strikeout rate, I think he might be able to hit 270. But even if he doesn't, I think he's a great best ball guy because I think he'll be so streaky. He is going to have some weeks this year that are just, he'll be the headliner on all the ESPN,

on all the shows where they're just like, oh my God, Austin Riley's on fire. He'll hit like six homers in a week and a half or something. And then he'll just go in the tank for a while because that's, he's just the kind of player he is. Strikeout rate is usually there. He's kind of, sometimes he's, he told me in the AFL that he gets stuck between fastballs and sliders sometimes that he like, you know, that he, the hitting speed, he's not always

at the right hitting speed. So I think he's figured some of that part out, but I think, yeah, I think that's a great pick. Yeah, I agree. I'm not going to make a fool out of myself and come up with another, cause I really don't think there is one. Riley would have been mine. You guys mentioned the strikeout rate. I mean, he walked more. He had more contact last year. I think it's the tough part with this breakout thing is we've said it a million times. What are you basing it off of, right? Like the last season was so odd. And I think you have to look for things like the fringy statistics, right? And I think Austin Riley is a guy who could have a really strong.

I think in general, people are sleeping on the Braves. I got asked this yesterday on the radio, why no one's talking about them. They've won the NL East the last two years. And somehow they're like predicted to be third or fourth. I think if Austin Riley takes that step forward, that natural progression, there's no reason, I wouldn't be surprised if the Braves three-peat in the division. It really wouldn't. I know the Mets are good.

I know people are talking about the Nationals and to some extent the Phillies who really just brought the band back. But I think a good Austin Riley puts the Braves over the top. Yeah, the only other place that I see some conflict going down right now in terms of a springtime battle that might produce a sleeper is in center field. David O'Brien reported yesterday that Ender Inciarte can't grip the ball right now, which means that he's behind. And he's behind in terms of offensive potential. And defense doesn't age all that well. So I wouldn't be surprised if he's behind in every facet of the game right now

in terms of health, offense, and defense. When it comes to Christian Pache, the young guy who only has like 24 plate appearances. So you're right. This is even worse than Austin O'Reilly. What am I basing it off of? I'm basing it off of mostly potential, age, and the inferiority of the guy who's in the incumbent seat there in Ender Enciarte. So I do recognize that you could do some things with Acuna in center, and that's definitely a possibility. So don't push your Christian Pache pick too high. But deep in a draft, for your final outfielder, for a bench slot,

the nice thing is that I think the projections are underrating his speed. I think if they let him go, and especially near the bottom of the lineup, I think that he could steal 25 bags. So you're talking about a guy who could, you know, I think even like just being like more realistic, I think you could say 250, you know, 10 to 15 homers, 25 bags. It's not a crazy prediction for him. So he does need to win the job outright for that to happen. But if Ender and Ciarte can't even grip a ball, I think that's another source of sleeperdom. No, there's not a lot of like position battles really in Braves game.

Like the backup catcher is a big deal there, which lends you to believe that if the backup catcher is being talked about, there's just not a lot of positions up for grabs. Camargo looks like, I think you're right, DVR. Camargo is obviously their utility guy. He's penciled in everywhere. He can't be the starter at third. Nice player, but not necessarily a guy you want to have in the lineup each and every day. Let's go to Miami. I talked about Trevor Rogers with our friend Clay Link from Rotowire on the Athletic Fantasy Baseball podcast yesterday. And it was kind of a light bulb moment. He's someone I've had on a few keeper league teams,

just sort of stashed away. And it's like we forget that he's a lefty and he throws 97. And that's pretty exciting ordinarily. 13th overall pick in 2017 so there's clear prospect pedigree there and if you're trying to bet on starting pitchers exceeding expectations look at the marlins over the years in part because it's such a pitcher friendly environment in miami anyway you can usually get away with finding those guys, at least streaming them at home. And usually they're a lot less talented than Trevor Rogers as they bring a lot less stuff to the table than he does. He was up at AA at the end of 2019. So, I mean, it's possible that he gets some time back at AAA this year.

But if they like what they see, there's really nothing holding him back from one of the spots in that rotation. And I think you're going to get plenty of strikeouts, even if the ratios are a little bit bumpy initially. Yeah, I did a comp on Trevor Rodgers' changeup, and Devin Williams, dude. The closest changeup comp is Devin Williams. So I don't really understand.

The stuff number I've got for Rodgers from Ethan Moore before he went to the Twins was below average. I don't really understand that because he does, as you say, sit above 94, has a Devin Williams-esque change-up that he can command, which is rare because everybody around Devin Williams and Trevor Rodgers cannot command it. It's like a little bit of the kind of cotton, Honeywell, Faria, forkball-y, you know, what's it, what is it that Devin Williams actually throws? Screwball. They call it the airbender, yeah, but it's a screwball. Screwballs. You know, in that territory, almost nobody can command them. Devin Williams can command it a little bit, and Rodgers can command it. So,

I think I'm going to have to bump them up just despite the numbers. I think that there's something there for Rodgers for sure. Yeah, it's interesting. We've talked about this before, but the Marlins, their whole success is going to be based on what happens with their offense, right? Because their starting pitching is deep and exciting. And Edward Cabrera was a guy that i really liked that i think recently went on the the dl and got optioned as well right with like nerve inflammation um he's another top 100 guy he's a consensus like top arm um he's a guy who i kind of wondered would he factor into the marlins plans before he got hurt maybe later this season. I think the key for that team is going to be,

okay, not so much this year, but like seeing where they're at, like who do the Marlins add in 2022, right? That's going to be kind of where their window is at. And we saw them kind of hit it, I guess a little too early this year. But to me, I think that's a great pick for a breakout guy DVR.

I think that to me, the Marlins aren't really going to be as bad as people kind of have them automatically penciled in last place. I don't think that's necessarily the case. I think you go through

those arms and there's just a lot of really intriguing guys. And to me, half that roster is a sleeper because the casual baseball fan hasn't heard of most of the guys

on the Marlins. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, we've got a lot of love for Sandy Alcantara and Sixto Sanchez based on where they go in fantasy drafts. Pablo Lopez has jumped up quite a bit too, but Pablo Lopez is not a guy that the average baseball fan is excited about.

Eliezer Hernandez kind of fits that description too. I think Rogers could get a lot of attention and I do. If Edward Cabrera is healthy, he might be the highest ceiling pitcher of all of these guys, which is crazy because those other guys, Sanchez and Alcantara especially, have plenty of ceiling themselves. So I really like what they've got as a young core of pitchers. Hard to believe they traded away Zach Gallin from this group too.

Maybe Jazz Chisholm is the guy that we should talk about on the position player side as a possible now overlooked breakout candidate. I mean, it feels like we play in Keeper League, Dynasty League community. Sure, we know who he is and we follow prospects, but Jazz Chisholm is one of those guys that he could end up being the starting second baseman this year and it might not take him that long to overtake Isan Diaz for that opportunity. Yeah, I have a problem with the Marlins hitting prospects. It seems like they just gathered a bunch of guys who strike out a ton. And I know I've seen the research that like, you know, high strikeout rate prospects still have high ceilings and a lot of times they can put it together, but it's not happening. You know, Louis Brinson, Monty Harrison, Isan Diaz, Jazz Chisholm.

Like, has any of them even shown us an inkling that they're going to put it together? I actually think John Birdie might be a sleeper for this team this year. And he's 32. I just think that he's the guy who's most likely to be a credible second baseman. And if they're going to be credible this year, and it's possible, I mean, Duvall, Marte, Dickerson, Outfield, Rojas is just going to be a league average type shortstop, but Brian Anderson's pretty good.

They can fake it at first base with Aguilar and Cooper. And Alfaro's pretty good. You know, Birdie actually would make this team better than the prospects. And if you want a prospect, the name that I like is J.J. Bleda. And I've been able to get him. I got him in my 12-team dynasty restocking draft. He, for some reason, wasn't owned, even though we all have at least 10 prospects in our minor leagues.

And it's a 12-team league. I was very happy to take Bleda. in our minor leagues and it's a 12 team league. I was very happy to take Bleda. And he, the one thing that Bleda does that nobody else does on this team is make contact. So that's my guy. I think he's close and there's enough window of opportunity with Corey

Dickerson's getting injured fairly often. Marte getting injured fairly often and Duvall being kind of sometimes a platoon player. And if Brinson and Harrison don't step forward, Blede might be the big call up to be like, hey, we're going to go for it. We're doing well enough in the division that we're going to go for a wild card and we think a window's opening. So here comes Blede. Yeah. You know, and I just wrote a story about kind of the teams with the fastball velocities and how you can assess who's good at adding velo. And the team that kept coming up as relying on the private sector too much was the Marlins.

So I'm wondering if how much here the development of those young hitters, as you said, is being set back. Because by and large, and correct me if you guys have heard the opposite, but all I've heard is that the Marlins are still behind in the player development. They're in the bottom tier in that regard. And they get away with it by having a lot of their guys go to the private sector and get better. But I do wonder if that's going to be a thing or if that's something that's hampering or going to hamper some of their younger hitters. I think that they're working. I think that they were the worst team in baseball at player development a few years ago. And now they've had a couple regime changes and they're working at it. And I know some people in there and I don't want to say that it's terrible. But, you know, I think when Dan Straley was there, you know, I heard that they were taking weighted balls out of people's bags. I heard that they were taking weighted balls out of people's bags.

He had to do weighted balls in his house. He couldn't do it at the park. So, I mean, weighted balls at this point are pretty ubiquitous. I think almost every team has a wall that you can throw them against. Every team is kind of, either they shrug and say, fine, do your own thing, or they embrace it like the better teams, and they have these gas camps where they have the wall for you and they have all the machines up and everything. So I don't know that I'd put, I definitely wouldn't put the Marlins in, like, the top ten.

But I don't think I'd necessarily put them in the bottom two or three like they used to be. So they're working on it. But, yeah, I think it's fair. or three like they used to be. They're working on it. I think it's fair. I think it's fair to wonder if they assembled all this talent and really you look at what they traded away,

that outfield of the century almost, and what do they got for it? Amazing that they didn't do well in those trades in particular, especially since I think they got Gallen in the Ozuna trade and then flipped him to get Chisholm. If they don't turn

Chisholm into something good, they're in a lot of trouble. Yeah, I mean, had they just kept Gallin, they would have probably won that trade. Yep. Let's go to the Mets because I think they were a tough team for me to find a true undervalued player on. I mean, there's been a ton of attention on all the moves they've made, and they've got more depth than ever

before. So they have a little bit of the Padres, redundancies at a couple of spots where maybe there's three players vying for playing time in two spots. I came up to the bullpen and thought maybe that's where we find a sleeper. We talked to Trevor May about two months ago, three months ago now on this show. When he signed with the Mets, I was disappointed because I thought he could close if he went to a place like Philadelphia. A handful of teams that are looking for closers, and the Mets didn't see any one of them.

But Edwin Diaz, for as talented as he is, has had a difficult time holding down that job in New York. So I'm going to put a chip behind Trevor May. I'm going to say if Edwin Diaz doesn't keep the closer role, Trevor May actually moves to the front of the line ahead of Jairz Familia, ahead of Miguel Castro, ahead of Delo Matances, and he becomes the new closer for the Mets. I mean, that's interesting. I do like that idea. The thing with Diaz that I don't think people realize outside of, you know, he had that one bad year, which I think the Mets are hoping is just an anomaly because outside of that, he's been kind of the picture of stability. And to me, the interesting thing is that Luis Rojas, the Mets manager, has not named and will not name like a specific like you are the closer.

And that was a big deal early on in Mets camp. You know, will it help him? Will it hurt him? I think everybody knows that if the Mets are going to be good, Trevor May can't be closing games. He needs to be the setup guy. Their bullpen needs to be a deep group. I think.

I don't think they can win the NL East without that bullpen stepping up, without all of those guys firing. But I agree. There's not really a whole like, you look up and down that roster, there's not like a whole lot of, I guess, sleeper picks. Maybe Walker, just because he hasn't pitched very much. Tywon Walker could be one, because I think his spring outing the other day

that actually I was in Florida for was his second or third outing in the last two years. So you're not entirely sure what you're going to get out of that guy. So I thought maybe he could count as a sleeper pick, because certainly we've seen DeGrom already just do ridiculous things in spring training. If they can actually have a rotation, and it looks on paper, you know, with Stroman and some of these other guys,

it looks like it's going to be a strength. What if they get a real breakout year from a guy like Walker? How much better and deeper does that make this team? Yeah, I think Walker's got a really nice fastball and he's been developing secondary. So I think there's a, there's a chance there that there's, they got something good. I think, I think Brandon Nimmo is underrated. You know, I think that, you know, he's, he's been slightly improving his barrel rate and his strikeout rate over time. And then on top of that, he's been slightly improving his barrel rate and his strikeout rate over time. And then on top of that, he's their natural leadoff guy.

So, you know, given health and then there's some question about defense, are they going to take him out of games early for defense because the guys behind him are better at defense like Almora and Pilar? But given that caveat, I would say that he could get a ton of plate appearances. He hasn't had more than 530 in a season so far. So what if he got to 6, 650 this year? I think that given those barrel rates,

given the slightly improving strikeout rate, I think you could get a guy who hits 275 with 20 homers and 10 steals. And I don't think he's going at that price. I'm not saying you should pay that price because there are these questions about his defense, but this could be a peak year for him. And they could use a guy who plays two ways in center.

I mean, that's been a problem for them. Yeah, I'm really curious to see how much Kevin Pillar and Albert Omora impact Nimmo's playing time. I mean, I wonder if Nimmo sits against a lot of lefties and even does get those late game defensive replacements coming in for him. Those defensive replacements could be for Dom Smith and left though, too. I mean, he's good of a hitter. There's a lot of places they need defensive replacements. placements. Right. So it could be a little overblown with Nimmo. And we've seen big side platoon players, if they come through on that 80% playing time share, they could still be really valuable players going outside the top 200. I think Nimmo's ADP since March 1st is just outside the top 250. So if you believe in the power, I think you can draft him in that spot as your

fourth or fifth outfielder and come away pretty happy. And part of the reason it works is because, as you said, you know, he's probably atop the order. Tywon Walker, I think it's a good call, Britt. I mean, I just think he's a forgotten player in some ways. And once upon a time, he was one of the best pitching prospects in the game. He's not that old either. He got to the big leagues so quickly. You look at Tywon Walker and you're like, oh, holy crap, he's only 28. That's amazing.

I thought he was 35 because he broke in in 2013 now. Pitched really well in the shortened season with the Mariners and Jays too. I think that offers a glimmer of hope that he can be a stabilizing presence in the back half of that rotation because there are some questions in the back. I think

David Peterson, even though he's a former first-round pick, I don't think he's more than a number four, number five starter. Some people think there could be more there. I just don't see it. Carlos Carrasco's dinged up right now. So that probably puts Joey Lucchese in the rotation for a starter to at least to begin the season. Yeah, he's not one of your favorite guys. I've learned. So I do think Tywon Walker is pretty important to the Mets too, but I think relatively speaking, also undervalued

and someone we should be going after where he's going. Let's take a look at the Phillies where Spencer Howard would be my captain obvious selection. It's really a matter of health for him. They need him to be good. They really need him to be good. But is it going to be in the dreaded flex role? Yeah, I think I saw Gelb say he's ticketed for alternate site. Horrible. Horrible use of resources. Yes. He's not guaranteed

to make the team. I agree with you. The Phillies are a better team when he's on the roster. They should probably, yeah. Because Vince Velasquez, I think, is a really good... Freddy Peralta looks like he's starting now, but in the old Freddy Peralta role. I would love to have him come in for two or three innings in the middle of the game. And try to keep it close if one of the guys blows up.

I mean, Vince Velasquez and Matt Moore as a pairing is kind of exciting, actually. You know, you got your lefty and your righty. They both, you know, have decent velocity. They have bad command. Can't go deep into games. I think that I would do that and try to give Howard, you know, you can give him the fifth spot, right? If you give Howard the fifth spot, you can skip him a lot, right? That's, you know, in the first month, the fifth guy gets skipped a bunch. And that's how you keep his innings down. And you keep him with the major league pitching coach.

And you, I don't know. That's what I would do. Yeah. Don't send guys like this to the alternate site. Just don't do it. Anything, Britt. I know you despise the Phillies. Like, they're not Britt's Phillies.

Why are they doing this? Why are they sending to the alternate site when they could just use them in the Phillies? Like they're not Brits Phillies. Why are they doing this? Why are they sending to the alternate site when they could just use them in the bullpen? And look, but if he's bad, here's my argument for any player who is not an obvious stay up all year sort of guy, which I think is a fair description of Spencer Howard. I think he's good.

But if he struggles, you can option him down later. Like why not just continue the development and get the development right? See, because what I've heard from teams is they think that that's worse than just start. They'd rather they stay at AAA or whatever, crush at the alternate site, feel good about themselves, come up and stay up. Then a lot of young guys take that first optioning the wrong way. They take it hard. They feel like, you know, I got my chance. I blew it. And I guess I couldn't hack it. Yeah. So I kind of think if you're going to call him up, he better stay up.

You better not say, well, if he falters, we'll send him back down. I think the issue with a lot of these young guys is that psyche. Confidence is huge. Confidence is huge. Yeah. But I don't mean to keep picking starting pitchers, but my guy for this is Zach Eflin because I think he's a guy who we know is going to make the team, right? He's going to be like their number three starter. And I think he

has shown signs that he's good. He had a really good year last year, but I think he actually is a guy who you look at some of his stats and he could even be better. And I think he's a key part, kind of like Walker, he's a key part of that rotation because the Phillies are basically kind of like rolling the dice with that same band, right? That's what Dombrowski did. He brought back basically that same group again. You know, like the Mets, their bullpen was terrible. Like most of the NLEs, they've had a lot of bullpen issues going back to 19 even.

But I think for the Phillies, having a guy like Zach Eflin have that breakout year could really help them. So Howard, to me, is the obvious pick. I think if you look a little deeper, you need Zach Eflin to be very good. You need to get some innings out of your rotation. And that's a spot that the Phillies have kind of struggled with. You know, their rotation hasn't been very good or able to go very deep as of late either. Yeah, I had Kingery in there. I just think Kingery can get back to 2019.

That might not be super exciting to us, to shallower leagues. I mean, that's like 250 with some power and speed. But now that I'm looking at this, I've got a different one. Jose Alvarado. And my thinking goes such.

Archie Bradley's velo is down. I've heard that there's some concern in camp about Archie Bradley's velo. Hector Neris command. Brandon Kintzler is kind of like a ground ball-y bring-em-in-with-people-on-base

kind of guy. Jose Alvarado is throwing triple digits in camp right now. I hope you guys are watching on YouTube so that you can just see the... Did you see me start beaming when you said Freddy Peralta might be a real starter again? Oh, man.

The moving images coming out of camp for him are very exciting. Is he doing like a slider-cutter fastball thing? I believe so, yes. It looked really nice. Peralta. He gets it. He knows what he has to do to make it work.

You know what? The kid thing is, who do you like better, Victor Robles or Freddy Peralta? I can't decide. Peralta. I love them both in different ways. I am so down on Robles and DVR. We can debate this because it's, I think, our next team. You state your Victor Robles

love. Let's do it. I'll give you the floor. Mike Rizzo likes him too. Mike Rizzo loves him apparently. It's all about 2019. I'm giving him a pass for 2020. He wasn't that good in 2019. He wasn't that good in 2019. He wasn't that good in 2019. He was good for our silly little game that we like to play, though, because he had power, he had speed, scored a decent number of runs.

I think there's easy 12 to 15 home run power there with room for more, and the speed, assuming he's a little lighter than he was last year. Yeah, have you seen him, Britt? He's thinner. I do think he learned from, I think the real problem, and this is just my opinion, is he came up before Soto, right? He was supposed to be the guy. He got hurt. Then Soto comes up. You see Soto's power. He's like the best ever. He gets a little power. Yeah. He gets a little taste of the power life, and he's like, I'm going to pack weight on and be a home run hitter. And it's like, that's not you,

Victor Robles. You actually also need to move around in center field. So I do think he's like, I'm going to pack Wade on to be a home run hitter. And it's like, that's not you, Victor Robles. Like, you actually also need to move around in center field. Yeah. So I do think he's learned a little bit. My breakout guy is Carter Keboom, though, because the Nationals cannot have a guy who, by the way, has been very pedestrian in spring training. Has not homered. Hasn't really – hasn't had a – I don't think an extra base hit. I'm sure someone will correct me if I'm wrong, but he hadn't, at least when I was down there. And I think you hear differing things in that organization about him.

Some people are like, oh, he's going to be fine. Other people are like, should have sold him when he wears like a prospect, you know, two years ago. And to me,

if you're the nationals, you can't have like a singles hitter at third base. And part of it's Carter Keboom, not, not Carter Keboom's fault because the Nationals kept moving him around trying to find a position for him when they had Trey Turner

and they knew all along that he wasn't going to come up and play shortstop. So what were they doing? Right? Like part of the issue is his development got stunted moving around

a little bit and learning new positions. But to me, the guy who, the sleeper guy, the guy who needs to have a breakout year is Carter Keboom.

Yes, Victor Robles because it's very clear Davey Martinez wants Robles, Turner, Soto as his lineup. And if Robles can't handle the leadoff spot, that's a huge issue for them and for that whole lineup going forward. But I think Carter Keboom is another must for them. I hear you. I hear that he's a must for them. But just break it down for me

in terms of what you think will actually happen in terms of Kibum Castro Harrison Garcia you've got second base and third base open who do you think plays the most um I think Kibum plays the most at third base I think he's going to be given every opportunity to fail. If he fails, then I think they consider putting Castro over at third, putting Garcia at second. But what's interesting is Garcia was long considered behind Kibum, and he actually held his own, took a step forward. Whereas Kibum kind of took a step sideways in 2020.

And people made a big deal about maybe his groin was hurt. Well, he's fine now, and he's still not hitting for power. So you're saying, like, basically give Keboom the eighth spot or the seventh spot? Yes. Probably the eighth spot. Yeah, he does. Eighth spot. Put Gomes in seventh and Keboom in eighth.

And maybe he'll get some walks just by being in front of the pitcher. Maybe. You know why I'm smiling again? It's because if Gomes is hitting seventh, and if Keboom is hitting eighth, you know what that means Victor Robles is hitting? One. One.

He has to hit one, Derek, for this to work. He has to hit one. But he can do it. I think people are underselling the hit tool. I think he's a good hitter. He's going to put a ton of balls in play. He runs well. He's not a power hitter. I don't think he's ton of balls in play. He runs well. He's not a power hitter. I don't think he's a pull-happy guy or anything.

No, he's not a power hitter, but if Victor Robles is another Starling Marte, is that disappointing based on what he was supposed to be as a prospect? Starling Marte has been a very good player for a long time. Starling Marte hits the ball harder. Yeah, and also Derek. Right now he does. He's older.

Look at how hard did Starling Marte hit the ball when he was 22. We don't know. We didn't have those advanced stats. That's my point, though. It's like he's so young. We can't just look at him and be like, nah, that's what he is. My main concern, my parting shot on Victor Robles, my main concern is the way he plays lends itself to injury.

He has scared the Nats a lot. He leans into pitches a lot. He leans into pitches a lot. He gets hit by pitches a lot. He is a guy who plays full throttle, which you like to see, but he is a guy who has a propensity to get injured because of that. They kind of told Harper to stop doing that, right? Yes. There's actually proof. You can actually see in Harper's numbers that he stopped diving at some point. Yes. He's like, ooh, I have a big contract coming up. I better stop diving.

Just let the ball get by me. Exactly. I'll run and get it. So I think that, to me, is my concern. If you're especially drafting him for fantasy purposes, the injury thing is real. Interesting. Another thing on Keeboom that's kind of interesting, he had LASIK, didn't he? If you're especially drafting him for fantasy purposes, the injury thing is real. The other thing on Keeboom that's kind of interesting, he had LASIK, didn't he? Yes.

Yes. How long was he trying to hit without being able to see the ball? Yeah, and with like a groin injury apparently. And it's funny because he didn't say the LASIK. Kevin Long was like, oh, yeah, he had LASIK too. So that's why I'm glad you brought that out. So he could be the breakout guy. Now that he can see, I believe maybe he can hit. He had a good walk rate before.

That's true. You know, he was just like, whatever. That'd be a funny surgery. You're going for groin surgery, and they come out, and they're like, oh, we gave you LASIK, too. What? We gave you an eye test as you were going under, and you failed miserably, so we figured we'd fix your eyes.

I thought you were going to be down there. Jesus. I don't think it works like that, but I, like you, am not a doctor, so maybe it does work that way. Let's get to the AL East. Baltimore. Charm City, right? I always mix up the Charm City and the Emerald City. Yes.

Charm City. I don't know why they call it that. You probably know, Britt. That's your turf. It's so charming. I live here. That's it? Yeah.

The water? It's such a charming city. Yes, it's a lovely place. I live about 20 minutes outside of the city currently. All right. Yeah. I didn't know the backstory if there was more to it than that it's just a nice place to be

that works here's the guy that I like as a possible breakout in Baltimore, Eustoniel Diaz he's been hurt a ton, he was a big part of the trade that sent Manny Machado to the Dodgers a few years ago I would say rather than Charm City, Baltimore is the land of opportunity for position players

right now, so a guy like Diaz can find a lot of playing time very soon. And I think he's a better fantasy player than a real player. I think there are probably concerns about defense. He's truly a corner guy. There's zero chance he's ever going to play center field. So he has to hit quite a bit to keep that job in the long run. But I'm not worried about the long run. I'm just looking for 2021.

So I'm in on Diaz, but is there something I should know about him, Britt? Is there any reason why it can't happen for him this year? No, because like you said, it's the land of opportunity. So I think he's probably going to get every opportunity. And speaking of which, I mean, I would pick Ryan Mountcastle as another guy who, you know, his bat's always been okay,

but they've been like, where are we going to put this guy? Well, it appears they're going to put him in left field. He's going to be their opening day left fielder. So I think that's kind of another scenario. I don't see Diaz. I see Diaz and Mountcastle as kind of the same thing. Like maybe they're not going to be these great, part of the next great Orioles team. But for right now, there's an opportunity for breakout. And then also, I don't mean to pick two. However, I covered the Orioles, so I feel like I can pick two if I want to. Trey Mancini should be a breakout guy.

Why? Because not only is he this terrific story, right, coming back from cancer and all of that, but people forget that he should have been an All-Star in 2019. He had a breakout year in 2019. Because nobody really watches the Orioles, He kind of got screwed to some extent. But if he comes back and is able to kind of continue on what he was doing, like how great would that be? Not only is he a great guy, it's a great story, but he really is one of the last remaining like faces of that team. People don't really want to associate Chris Davis as the face of the Orioles

because of how bad that contract has worked out. So Trey Mancini is the guy, he is the leader. And go back to 2019 and look at Trey Mancini and look what he was able to do. I think people get so worked up about the cancer stuff that they forget that this guy isn't just a feel-good story. He's actually a really good player. Yeah. You know, one of the things about him that's interesting is I think that for a long time people were fascinated or obsessed with his ground ball rate, but then we got these better advanced stats, and he barrels the ball well.

So he's one of these guys that, you know, will settle, not settle, but will hit a bunch of line drives, will hit hard line drives, and they look like ground balls, and it looks like he doesn't lift the ball, but he also hits the ball hard in the air. So it's actually kind of a really good package in terms of hitting for average and hitting for power. And I think that he's a really good hitter. Here's the only problem, man. I think they got to trade him because they've got Mountcastle. They've got Diaz. One of my picks was Stewart. I like DJ

Stewart. I think he's, especially for fantasy, he's got a power speed game. They've got Santander. You know, they've got Mountcastle. These guys are all corner outfielders, first basemen. And in center, I don't know that I believe in Austin Hayes as much as some people do. And Cedric Mullins is your sort of prototypical kind of defense and speed guy without much offensive ceiling. So they have bats in corner positions

and they're missing impact up the middle other than Rutschman. So there's something still missing from how this all fits together. Wow. They're going to put Jemai Jones out there. I've talked to a fair amount of scouts and industry people on Jemai Jones, and there's not that much excitement for him. They're kind of scrounging at short second and third, and yet they've got an abundance of first base slash outfielder types yeah you do

wonder is the clock running out will it run out on chris davis this season freeing up a spot for one of those guys like a tray man that's what you do actually that's what you do actually yeah so fun fact here so the orioles overlooking trey mancini within their organization they always thought he was like this 4a guy is the the reason why they signed Chris Davis to that deal. They didn't think they had a long-term first baseman in their system. However, when Trey Mancini came up and proved that, you know, he was, I think, in the top three in AL Rookie of the Year the year the judge ran away with it. So really, it was the vast oversight on Trey Mancini that forced them into that position with Davis and I think that ultimately this is the year to absorb what's left of his contract

just cut yeah just cut him just cut him then everything works a little bit better Mancini at DH Mountcastle at first Stewart you give Stewart a little bit of ride and left if he doesn't make it happen Diaz comes up everything fits a little better. I used to have a co-worker who would say that the playing time in the big leagues is a valuable currency when you are a rebuilding team. Every inning is development time that should be highly valued. If you have a sunk cost like Chris Davis, you have to move on. It started with Jose Vidro as a horrible DH with a bad contract in Seattle

like 15 years ago. This guy was a Mariners fan. He's like, it's the dumbest thing in the world that they don't just give someone else the playing time. They have to pay him either way. They might as well DFAM, play somebody else. Unfortunately, they've given Chris Davis plenty of chances. And what was that front office thinking?

Like we got to have our long-term first baseman locked up. Where does long-term first baseman fall on a normal organization's priority list of importance does it even make the top 20 of like things that you are worried about if you're running a team like that's completely bananas yes that was a peter angelo special that was not uh the easiest way to piss off dan duquette or buck show on there insinuating that anybody thought that was a good deal. It's just, I mean, it's so much so that Dan Ducat has said this on the record. Like, that's a Peter Angelus special because everyone's just like. That's funny.

He said it on the record. I love that he said it on the record. He's like, I am not going to let this tarnish my legacy. One thing that came up in discussions for our last piece about pitching development was how much certain teams have changed in recent times. And so when you're looking at how much velocity a pitcher has gained in the last five years, what if the pitching development program at a team has changed drastically in the last two or three years? And I kind of was talking about that a little bit with the Marlins, but it's really in effect when you're talking about the Blue Jays and when you're talking about the Orioles.

The Orioles have completely changed their pitching development philosophy and process. And so, for example, when I talked to John means the last time we saw each other in the clubhouse he had already had discussions like he already spoke my language you know yeah we talked about spin rate and spin efficiency and spin comps and like how he developed his changeup and how it was the Marco Estrada change up. So that's the first wave. The second wave, I actually like Dean Kramer and Keegan Aiken a little bit more than most. And I know the park is tough and that makes it tough on fantasy. But Kramer, even a little bit more than Aiken, I think has an interesting arsenal, has good

enough command and might have a bit of a breakout season. And just the fact that they kind of developed Kramer and Aitken to this point makes me feel like maybe we'll have some other pop-up guys. I don't know if it's Bruce Zimmerman necessarily. Maybe it could be Michael Bauman. But maybe it's somebody whose name I don't know. And so I have some confidence now in the Orioles to produce pitchers. So I just wanted to put Dean Kramer on this list as a bit of a name. Anyway, we've given people like 10 names to this team. And that's what happens with bad teams. I mean, it's a lot easier to go hunting on a bad

team. Yeah, there's a lot of sleepers. No one knows who they are. And also, I have a soft spot for them, for Charm City. So thanks for giving them airtime, guys. Happy to help. Let's take a look at the Red Sox. I like Jaron Duran. I don't know how quickly he's going to get up this year, but I think he does finish the year in the big leagues if he's continuing to mash in the upper levels of the minors.

Maybe the low-hanging fruit is Bobby Dahlbeck because he's having a great spring. He got the call-up last year. The K rate was really high upon debut. That's probably going to come down at least to the low 30% range. First base is really his to lose at this point. It seems like they've soured a bit on Michael Chavis. You have other guys like Marwin Gonzalez and Kike Hernandez that you don't really want to play at first base. So if Dahlbach is too obvious, I'll go with Jaron Duran as the prospect that should have an outfield spot to call his own at some point this summer. Yeah, you're right. I mean, Bobby Dahlbach is the easy one.

He's the one who apparently is the kind of guy who still answers text messages and phone calls to every reporter, which you know is going to go away soon. He's got the big – the swing and miss is a little concerning, right? I think it's, strikeout rate is what, it's like over 40%. But I think the power is real. I mean, it's not just, you can look at spring training and say these are wind aided home runs. I did spend some time in Red Sox camp and talking to people and the power is real. It has nothing to do with the wind or the quality of play. He's going to hit for power.

I think that much is definitely assured. This isn't really like a sleeper breakout guy, but a guy who I think just never gets enough attention because we're in this golden age of shortstops is Xander Bogarts. Did you guys know that he is like, eventually as long as he stays healthy, he's going to be the Red Sox franchise leader in games played in shortstop, which is remarkable. I know. I was supposed to write this column this week, then I got behind, probably do it next week. But he's like this steady presence that you don't really realize is as good as he is. It's similar to Ty turner i guess because the lindors of the world and the carlos correas and you know this is a time where the short stops this is such a great

time for short stops to watch uh but remember when people were like oh bogarts he's not gonna last at short stop they're gonna have that's right right like that was a thing yeah that was the thing and he's just been quietly plugging away um ever since you know, for the past decade in Boston's organization, he got signed out of Aruba at 16. So I think he's a guy who, it's not a breakout, right? It's not a surprise if he plays well. But I think he's a guy who you're going to be like, realized when he's done playing, like, man, he was really good.

He's like that last link to their like past, really. J.J. Martinezz to some extent but the last guy that's on that pretty much faceless red sox organization that's going through this transition is xander bogarts yeah that's a good call so yeah uh i'm going to play for the deep deep deep deep deep deep deep leaguers i'm gonna play build a bench so let's build a bench uh duron i think as i'm excited for him uh we talked about is verdugo a center fielder long term uh jaron duran would come in and play center field so that would be good uh but i don't think he's gonna break camp with the team so uh you need a backup center fielder you need a backup shortstop you need a backup catcher backup catcher is boring nobody cares uh backup shortstop is marwin gonzalez or marwin and kike are both i

mean they both can do backup center fielder is not marwin gonzalez is kike so if kike is a little bit more of the backup center fielder i would say marwin is a little bit more the backup center fielder. I would say Marwin is a little bit more the backup shortstop. Now, Marwin is the backup left fielder, right? Yeah, and Kike might be the regular starter at second base initially. So both of those guys might be in the lineup almost every day to start the season, even if they don't stay in that role. I think Marwin and Kike are going to play a lot. So Marwin is an interesting sleeper.

Kike is going to play a lot. So Marwin is an interesting sleeper. But if Marwin is also needed at third base, which I think he's the backup there, you're talking about them being backups in a lot of places and being needed. I think Christian Arroyo is going to make this team. Just because you need a sort of nominal second baseman. Plus, this is a Red Sox team that's still in talent acquisition right so you know what you do is you play christian arroyo enough to like you said every at bat on a rebuilding squad is is an important one right so you play christian arroyo

early in the season enough to know is he an an asset for us? Even as a utility guy behind Kike, and we make Kike a starter, right? Can he play in the big leagues? And so I think that question is going to be answered for Christian Arroyo this year. That's valuable information, I think, for the very deepest teams. The deepest teams. The AL only, the 12-team AL only. I mean, I picked him for my reserve in AL labor. I think he could find his way to semi-regular playing time with near league average power. The other guy that plays all over that could end up on the roster again

at some point is Jairo Munoz. I think he got DFA'd in the offseason, but he stayed in the organization. Hard hit rate jumped last year. 38% hard hit rate. Average exit VLO kind of backed it up. Doesn't barrel the ball a ton. More of just like a play-all-over utility type guy. I mean, they almost need one of those

if Kike's a starter in second. You know what I mean? Because then they don't have a backup in center field. Yeah, exactly. Let's go to the Yankees. Davey Garcia is on my mind. We talked to Lindsey Adler on Fantasy Baseball in 15. He's, I think, the favorite to be the number five starter based on the conversation we had with her, which absolutely makes sense. Why not? Why shouldn't Davey Garcia be the number five starter? I think there's going to be some

careful management of his innings given how young he is. He was on that sort of track anyway, regardless of the shortened season last year. But I think we're talking about someone that might be able to come in with a sub four ERA and a pretty good whip, even having to pitch half his games in Yankee Stadium. I think everything you see and read about Garcia points to a guy who's much more polished than most pitchers his age. And I think that gives him a chance to really thrive here in 2021. Yeah, I like that. I like Michael King, too, as a potential breakout guy. He did a lot of work at the Yankees alternate site,

really worked on the access, right? Was it the access point or the spin rate? You guys are much smarter than I am. The access of his changeup. And I think when you look at a guy like that, he certainly held his own. point or the spin rate. You guys are much smarter than I am. The axis of his changeup. And I think, you know, when you look at a guy like that, he certainly held his own. I felt like in some big moments for them last year. I think he's a guy, especially when you look at, you know, some of the injuries that the Yankees have already dealt with. He's a young guy who's on the rise. I like him as like a potential breakout guy. Probably with Clark Schmidhurt and Luis Severino starting on the DL,

probably their sixth guy, which is useful in today's game. There's going to be a lot of injuries. This is also a really picked over lineup. I don't know that I have a sleeper for you. I have noticed that Aaron Hicks is not valued very highly in drafts. And, you know, I did ask somebody about the sort of Jay Bruce situation.

Like if Jay Bruce makes this squad, then Mike Tauchman is in trouble in terms of roster spot. Cause they brought Brad Gardner back. And I did ask someone like, you know, so who's going to open on the DL so Mike Tauchman can make the team? And they said Aaron Hicks. But that's not saying that there's actually an injury. It's just, you know, it was just a guess.

But otherwise, I like Aaron Hicks. And, you know, he steals some bags, hits some homers, doesn't really hit a high enough average or do any of the bag stealing or homer hitting enough for people to really register him as like, oh, I'm going to pick him for power. I'm going to pick him for speed. A lot of those guys get undervalued

because late in a draft, you're like, ooh, I really need speed. Should I pick Leote Tavares or Aaron Hicks? And then you pick Leote Tavares because you're going big on speed. But if you had a balanced early draft, you can pick Aaron Hicks, and he'll be probably more valuable than Leody Tavares. Yeah, I think he gets third in the lineup and play nearly every day,

and it's a very hitter-friendly park. He's further removed from the elbow surgery. All signs pointing up for Hicks. I'm definitely in at the reduced price this draft season. Let's move on from the elbow surgery. All signs pointing up for Hicks. I'm definitely in at the reduced price this draft season. Let's move on to the Rays. I'm going to leave the pitchers out there for you guys. I'm going to say on the depth chart among hitters, Francisco Mejia is the guy that I think is a little bit underrated.

He could still have a breakout. Hit tool has always been good. We've seen the Rays take plenty of players like this and get a lot of mileage out of him. But even if they don't make him better, let's just say we get 2019 Francisco Mejia again. That's about a dozen homers, a good batting average, a decent OBP, a clear offensive upgrade over Mike Zanino, and catchers are a mess every year in fantasy. So to have a guy that plays two-thirds or three-quarters of the time that actually helps you a little bit, maybe in every category except for steals.

That's actually pretty nice. And he's going late enough where you're talking like pick 400 probably for Mejia. So pretty much an afterthought in drafts, but a guy that I think ends up taking the bulk of the playing time behind the plate for the Rays this season. I agree. this season. I agree, but I did talk to someone close to that organization, and they pointed out that Mike and Zeno, they value very highly how a catcher handles a staff, how they frame, how they call the games, and how they deal with the pitchers. Zeno's the incumbent, and so therefore he's going to have a real leg up when it comes to those parts of the game. So this source thought that possibly could get to 50-50, but he doubted that it would switch to majority Mejia. But I think a standout offensive season and some quick meshing with the

pitchers, especially since he comes over with Patino, there could be a sort of ascendance where the two of them kind of ascend together. Because Patino, I think, is going to start at the alternate site and come in as a starter, is my understanding. So, I don't, you know, and if you think about it,

I think it makes sense, because you want Patino to develop as a starter, and Fleming is your natural kind of bulk guy that can be on the roster and come in after Waka, come in after Archer, that sort of deal. Pitino, you want to kind of keep on a track and maybe come in, you know, for when Hill hits the DL or Waka hits the DL or something like that, or when you've just decided to make one of those guys a reliever. So I could see them kind of coming together as a tandem, and by July it being kind of 50-50 behind the plate, and Patino's in the rotation.

Yeah, that's a good pick. I like Yoshitomo, their third baseman outfielder that they signed to a two-year deal last winter um i think first off i think people don't realize how tough it is just the culture and acclimating and then you have to deal with can you imagine then you have to deal with the start and stop of spring training and then oops we're playing a 60 game season so i think if you look at him and you look at he had good um you know he had good, you know, he had good exit velocity. I think he had good,

you know, hard, a lot of hard hit balls. I think he's a guy who everything that he had to deal with that cognitive load of coming from Japan, learning the language, learning the new teammates, the COVID issues.

I think he's a guy who is going to be able to take a step forward because he doesn't have to deal with that quite as much. So I think he's kind of shown the peripheral stats. I think he's probably going to end up being more of a central force to them. He didn't really have a good 2020. But again, like we've said, you can almost take 2020 and look at it however you want, right? You can overanalyze it or you can just completely throw it out the window. I think in his case, you kind of completely throw it out the window. Yeah, I think there was a lot to like in his profile when he came over. I think for me, I see him as kind of a not quite everyday guy. So for a lot of fantasy leagues, he fits really well in AL only. He's probably undervalued there and plays enough to

definitely be useful there. I think in a lot of mixed leagues, he's the kind of guy that if Yandy Diaz gets hurt and Wander's not up yet and the infield's not super crowded, Setsugo starts to play a lot more. And then he becomes a pickup in mixed leagues because he has the kind of power and the OBP skills to make an impact. When do we see Wander, do you guys think? I actually think Taylor Walls is ahead of him. And I don't mean Taylor Walls is a better player. I just mean that if there's an issue where someone's hurt for two weeks, I think it's Taylor Walls that comes up because they don't care so much about massaging his playing time or making him come up at the right moment. I think if there was maybe a one-month issue or a six-to-eight

injury, six-to-eight-week injury for someone like Brandon Lau, then you bring up Franco. It's so frustrating. We talked about this before. It's like, oh, yeah, yeah, we prefer Nick Margevicius to Logan Gilbert. We prefer Joey Wendell to Wander Franco. We want Joey Wendell to play so we can have Taylor Walls back up and Wander can just keep mashing at the ultimate site no longer. Yeah, it is a little frustrating.

But Joey Wendell, I mean, in terms of long-term, like I think Wander Franco is the, is a starting infielder for them by next year. Because Joey Wendell is getting to the end of his team control. He's the typical, he's at the typical cut or trade portion of a raised player life cycle. I mean, he's an old man in Tampa, right? I mean, he's, he's 30 years old. My God, he's an old man in Tampa, right? I mean, he's 30 years old. My God, how did they let him get to turn 30? He's really old for Tampa.

Wow. And also Wendell's like more of a utility guy, I think. They're just trying to massage him into kind of an everydayer by pairing him with Yandy Diaz. And then Michael Brousseau, I think, might be my sleeper because he's always going to be in against lefties. And there is a non-zero chance that he gets enough playing time against righties that you look up and a month or so into the season, he's the starter at third base.

And Wendell is a true utility man. I think I'm Satsugo over Brasso, and they're both AL only guys for me for now with that weight and C. Because with Tampa Bay, for many spots in the depth chart, if playing time consolidates, someone becomes more relevant for us.

If it doesn't, we're stuck in all these platoons because they love to mix and match the way that they do. You've talked a lot about Thomas Hatch and Julian Merriweather in the last three months or so now. So I know they're definitely on your mind if we get to the Jays. Is there anybody else in Toronto that you see as a possible deep sleeper or breakout

candidate? Not deep, actually. I think in any league. I took him in TGFBI. I think Roddy Tellez is being uh is being shoved aside too much by this new depth um in in Toronto and I have a feeling that Teoscar Hernandez is going to take a step back um and that Rowdy Tellez will be in the lineup more than people think so uh it might take an injury as soon as there is an injury Rowdy's the first guy up. And I'm just betting on the bat, basically. I believe in that bat. And I believe in that bat more than I believe in Teoscar Hernandez's bat. Yeah, it's interesting because the Blue Jays are in that situation where they've got a whole bunch of young guys who everyone has heard of already, right?

So how deep are these sleepers? Right, exactly. Nate Pearson is a guy who's throwing 100 miles an hour already. Everyone has heard of already, right? So how deep are these sleepers? Right, exactly. Nate Pearson is a guy who is throwing 100 miles an hour already. And someone who Eno and I mentioned in that story, we're just scratching the surface on him. So is it fair to say he's not a deep sleeper, but could he have a breakout season? Absolutely. Yeah.

So, you know, he didn't get quite the hype that like the Black Guerrero Jr. did. But like the blue Jays roster is just full of these young guys who a lot of people have heard of. We talked about, you know, no one's heard of a lot of the Marlins. No one's heard of a lot of the rays. Uh, the blue Jays,

young guys are a big deal already. And I think that's kind of exciting as well. Yeah. With Rourke and Matt's as the, maybe the three, four, I think Pearson hatch and Merriweather are the future. And this team, um, has such a loaded lineup that, yeah,

they can make it work with Rourke and Matz, but if they want to win the World Series, it's going to be with Pearson, Hatch, and Merriweather. I'm not saying all three of them, but with one or two of them. You know what I mean? So that's why I like those young guys. And I know internally that the plan is for Merriweather to get to 100 innings and that Hatch is ahead of him in terms of being stretched out. So does that mean Hatch gets to 150

where some of them are simulated kind of alternate type stuff? Or, you know, what's the deal there? So I don't know exactly how I put this together, but I think that at some point the best rotation this team can put together has those three guys in it. Yeah, I think they need a couple of wins in the bottom half of that rotation if they're going to keep pace in the AL East. They're going to take a step forward, but how big of a step, I think,

hinges on the performance of three of those guys in particular. I got one more for this team before you leave. Kirby Yates came out. I don't know if I said on this podcast, I've had to do some podcasts. But Kirby Yates maxed out at 93.8 in his first appearance, and

that's not vintage Kirby Yates. So Jordan Romano is on all my lists right now. Keep an eye on that radar gun the next couple times out. But yeah, Romano looked really interesting last season. If he wants to sit 94 plus like he did when he was really good, he needs to max at 96. Yeah, definitely some cause for concern with Kirby Yates.

All right, not much time left. We have to run through these changes very quickly. Minor league experiments are taking place. Jason Stark wrote about this, and the goals are as follows, as written in the piece. A game with more action, more balls in play,

and less dead time. A game with more pace and better rhythm. A game with more base stealing and more chances for world-class athletes to show off their athleticism in the field on the bases rhythm, a game with more base stealing and more chances for world-class athletes to show off their athleticism in the field on the bases, and a game with less swinging and missing, fewer pitching changes, and less time between balls and play. So, we have

some changes at various minor league levels. Here's what's happening. I'll run through the changes. You guys can let me know what you think of these kind of as a group. No infielders in the outfield. That's going to happen at AA. Some pretty big impact there for pole hitters and really slow dudes. Bigger bases. That's going to happen at triple A. Bases are 15 by 15 inches now. They're going to be 18 by 18 inches at triple A. Also a

new material closer to the ground as well. Pitchers are going to have to step off the rubber before attempting a pickoff. They're going to do this at high A, so that's obviously good for base runners. It has a pretty big negative impact on left-handed pitchers' pickoff moves. And automated balls and strikes are going to happen at low A. Plus, there's going to be a 15-second pitch clock, which is down from 20 seconds in the upper levels of the minors. Pitchers will have 15 seconds to start their windup or come to a set position from the stretch. Otherwise, it's an automatic ball. The batter has to be attentive, in quotes, whatever that means, to the pitcher with eight seconds being left on the clock. Otherwise, it's an automatic strike. And there will now be a 30-second clock between batters mid-inning, and the time

between innings goes from 2.15 to exactly two minutes. So a lot of things, a couple different changes, different levels. Britt, what was your reaction when you saw this? I think most of the changes are good. I especially like the bigger bases because I think it's going to be more exciting to watch. Listen, I love stolen bases. I don't know if I'm in the minority here. I think it makes the game really exciting. I love the speed. I love the athleticism. I just, I love stolen bases. I think it puts a lot more pressure on pitchers and defenses. So I think the bigger

bases is going to make it easier and safer. You're going to avoid a lot of the collisions at the plate. I really like that. I'm kind of on the fence about the rule that allows or that kind of deters you from the shift right having both of your feet on the infield dirt i don't know how you guys feel about that to me

like i'm all for everything else the pitch clock about damn time like put a clock on them throw the ball faster get in the batter's box cool with that i don't know if we should be uh get in the box especially during the playoffs. That just drove me insane. No more Garcia Parra. I don't. Right. Stop messing with your batting gloves.

They're on once. They're on. They're Velcroed. You know? I guess I'm curious your guys' thoughts here because I don't have one. I don't feel one way or the other about the infield rule. Because why punish teams that have advanced information that know where to position guys, right?

Are we almost going backwards now with that rule? That one to me was the one that stood out as like, well, are we going too far backwards? I guess my one, a little bit of a worry with that is that if you look at it, there are some small market teams that have made have been doing well at pitching at run prevention. We just talked about the Rays, right? They've been doing well at run prevention using these kind of tactics, using shifts and stuff like that. And it is an opportunity for you to kind of get some value out of the field without spending a lot of money. for you to kind of get some value out of the field without spending a lot of money. And so if you do make it so that just the best athletes win all the time, then you might make it so that the richest teams just buy all the best athletes and there's no strategery

that the smaller market teams can do to stick with them. So I guess that's a possibility. On the other hand, I do like the fact that there might be more singles. I mean, singles, they're fact that there might be more singles. I mean, singles is their balls in play. You know, they're, they're,

they're, they're exciting. You know, I don't, it's not always that exciting to have like a second baseman grab what would be a single in short right field. It's, it's kind of bizarre actually. So,

and I think, and I think fundamentally baseball has the right to do these things. You know, they have the right to play with the game. If the game doesn't look the way they want it to exactly, then they can play with it. I mean, we had massive changes to what pass interference was in football. We had massive changes to what what kind of hand checking you can do in basketball at the perimeter. We've had massive changes to the other sports. And I think baseball in some ways has fallen behind

in terms of manipulating the sport and trying different things. So mostly I'm cool with all of it. With the base thing, base pass thing, yes, making the base bigger will make the base pass shorter. But we talked about it on the show the other day. Why not make it five feet

shorter so that's the only thing i was like wow like if we're trying all these things why not try a completely different situation with the base pass um it's not like 90 feet was handed down from god i think i think you'd get a lot more pushback, though. Yes, yes. On any significant change. But you're right. Hockey also totally reworked their rules in terms of blue lines and icing and things like that a few years ago. And totally sped up the game because the game was slow. So I agree. I agree with that.

I think that's a good point. And also Theo's in charge of this and everyone seems to love everything that Theo does. So that gives it a little more credibility too right it sounded like they consulted with teams and different people too though this wasn't just like a unilateral decision like they were trying to come up with some solutions that were sort of subtle in most cases but still impactful i do think the restrictions on where infielders can play is the most interesting one because there are a lot of players who would become much better hitters with only two defenders on that side of the field, especially if they have to be on the dirt. So what I think is going to be interesting is each level having these different rules. We have to keep that in mind.

We're analyzing the players that play at those levels so if there's a a pull happy first base corner guy at double a this year and there are no infielders in the outfield like you gotta take that with a grain of salt right if that doesn't become a real rule we're gonna get tricked by that player having this great year at double a so i was just thinking about it from like a long term analysis standpoint robo umps all the way up to low a but you, you know, we always, when we're looking at low A stats, we're always like, wait, what do these mean? Yeah, there's definitely

a take these with the appropriate grain of salt. All in all, I like what they were trying, I like what they're trying to do. I think they gotta make some changes. This is a better way to do it than, you know, forcing it into the big leagues in a negotiation all at once. At least you can kind of see what each of these things actually does in isolation. I think that gives you a better

sense of how it might impact things at the top level if any of these become major league rules. As I mentioned earlier, the Athletic Cutline Fantasy Baseball Contest is up for signup. I'll put the link in the show notes. It starts on Monday. It's a slow draft. All the details are posted up on the site. So I'll put the post for that on there as well. The biggest thing for this, steals aren't as important. They still count. It's a points league, but you don't have to get guys who run who are bad players. You don't have to get closers for saves who are only on your team because they get saves. You can get guys who are just good as a result of it being a points league. So that's my 30-second tip.

That's what's different. It's a deep bench. You got to have lots of coverage, a lot of redundancies in that roster because it automatically puts the best players in your lineup for you each and every week. As we go, we have a contribution from Kevin. Byron Buxton joined the Weird Injury Club this week

when he had to go to the dentist after finding a bone in his steak. He broke a tooth eating steak. And I hope this isn't one of those years for Byron Buxton because he's had too many of them where every accident, every possible injury finds him. He's just one of those guys. I want to see him completely healthy for a year, guys.

150 games from Byron Buxton. Seems impossible, but that's what I'm hoping for. A lot of good stuff on the site. As Eno and Britt mentioned, they wrote a great piece collaborating, looking at pitching development and which organizations are getting the most velocity-wise out of pitchers after

drafting them. Really cool stuff from them. You can check out the Jason Stark piece that I mentioned with all the rules changes outlined in there. $3.99 a month gets you in the door. The mentioned with all the rules changes outlined in there. $3.99 a month gets you in the door at theathletic.com slash rates and barrels. I hope both of you have a better weekend than Byron Buxton did while he was eating his steak. Teeth things always freak me out. I don't like teeth stuff.

It's not good. I broke these too. Oh, you did? Did you? As a kid. Yeah. I broke these too. Oh, you did? Did you? As a kid. Yeah. I don't know. I wore braces for way too long to have to replace my teeth again.

Yeah, exactly. Yeah, I don't really want to do braces again as a grown-up. They were not fun as a kid. On Twitter, she's at Britt underscore Giroli. He's at Inoceros. I'm at Derek Van Ryper. That's going to wrap things up for this episode of Rates and Barrels. We are back with you on Monday.

Thanks for listening and watching.