Rates & Barrels - Bring up the Kids

Episode Date: September 11, 2023

Eno and Welsh discuss the injury to Jasson Dominguez, Pete Crow-Armstrong's call to the majors, the Brewers almost 11-inning no-hitter, pitchers for the week and more. Follow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiper Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarris Follow Welsh on Twitter: @isitthewelsh Subscribe to the Rates & Barrels YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/c/RatesBarrels Subscribe to The Athletic for just $1/mo for the first year: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Welcome in, friends, to Rates and Barrels. I'm Chris Welsh. That is Eno Saris. We are in the final throws of the season. It's playoff time. There's only a couple more weeks. Only so many things that we can talk about, my friend, but we've got plenty of them, like unfortunate injuries,

a lot of pitching notes. We're just going to set the whole groundwork for you for this week on the fantasy baseball side and the baseball side. And also remind you guys, you guys can pick up a subscription to The Athletic for like a buck a month, go to the athletic.com slash rates and barrels, where you can get all the amazing content. Eno's got some awesome stuff that I've been privy to that's coming up

here in the very near future. You know? Yeah. Excited for a Corbin Carroll piece and the mailbags were kind of fun. I got to a little bit more like a Q and a, where I get to dig into it. So last week I tried to fix the Cardinals. I gave them Shota, Imanaga, and Sonny Gray.

Oh, really? I would be interested that they could pay for Imanaga. Well, they probably have like $35 to $40 million coming off the books that they could use. have like 35 to 40 million uh coming off the books that they could use um you know there's a better way to use 18 million dollars a year than they used on uh adam wainwright this year so uh you know there's ways that they can uh take existing budget somebody uh gave me a fairly backhanded praise saying that uh you rarely saw this much insight into the way that DeWitt works his teams than to suggest that the Cardinals should sign the third best Japanese pitcher and a over 30 guy with a curveball.

I was like, well, they don't usually shop at the top of the market, so I just can't see them buying Blake Snell for $150, $170 million or whatever it's going to take to get Blake Snell after he wins the Cy Young and goes on the market. So I tried to get them two starting pitchers that could pitch near the top of a rotation for under four under 40 million dollars and that's what i came up with you're like gee thanks thanks for the backhanded compliment i figured out the windfall uh the corbin carroll piece obviously i'm excited about as a corbin

carroll fan if anybody watch on the video they can see i've got the corbin carroll jersey uh behind me so that should be great um probably you don't want to give anything away, but it should be a pretty fun piece on Corbin Carroll. You got to speak to Corbin Carroll. That's actually the really cool part as well. Yeah, well, I mean, the thing that it was born out of, and people might remember this, that crazy, silly game between the Diamondbacks and the Braves that was like 20-18 or 18-16,

and it was just a slugfest back and forth and back and forth. It wasn't even just terrible pitching. I mean, I think it was just great hitting. And Acuna was going nuts. And it was a little bit like when we saw Acuna go against Mookie Betts in L.A. There's a certain sense that, like, Acuna is the MVP favorite and people are coming for him, you know. And there was a certain sense of even if you're

talking about team matchups there's there are these singular matchups in baseball sometimes where i don't know if it's just narrative but like me watching it i was like this is a little bit mookie betts versus ronald acuna jr right now and they're both trying to hit homers to win this game that happened in that series and when i I saw Corbin Carroll against Acuna, I was like, these two players think they're the best players in this game right now. And every time they come up, they want to win the game. And in that slugfest, it was just immediately apparent to me that I think it's like trying to describe the je ne sais quoi of like the stars.

Like there's something that Carroll has. He has that something that stars have, you know, and you can see it sometimes in a sitting. It doesn't, not every game. I'm sure there are games where Cormier Carroll goes 0 for 4 with two strikeouts. And if you watch that game, you didn't get all that off of it. But I feel like you can get them in certain games where you're just like, this is a guy who wants to be a superstar and actually has the tools.

And there's something there that I'm trying to figure out exactly how to write it right now. But just talking to people around him, and he's just a really interesting guy. Yeah, and you're going to be uncovering that. I'd actually liken it similar to the big quarterback duels you have like where patrick mahomes versus josh allen and they're going back and forth it feels very much like the the two guys team on their back type of thing but put into baseball i feel it's harder because it's harder because in in in baseball like you have a whole lineup, nine, ten guys. In baseball, you can't give the star the ball more often. You can't figure out a way.

Other than putting Acuna number one in the lineup, you can't find a way to get him more plate appearances. You can't be like LeBron where you've given the ball every time. You know what I mean? It can't be. So there's stuff that baseball goes against that. But then despite that that i think there are times where you're watching a game and like i know there's a lot of other people in this game

right now but right now this is a cunha versus bet since how i'm feeling you know and then i think it's special when that can be identified so be on the lookout for that coming here in the uh near future over on the athletic just one of the many reasons to make sure you've got a subscription and that you are subscribed to the podcast we are down to uh the final throws as, just one of the many reasons to make sure you've got a subscription and that you are subscribed to the podcast. We are down to the final throws as well of kind of the regular season here at Rates and Barrels. So it is me and Eno today, and then it's you and Al coming up later in the week, and it's going to be like that for the next couple weeks. So make sure you guys stay subscribed so you are notified of all the latest.

Let's get into one of the biggest stories that happened over the weekend. We have been talking so excitingly about one of the game's biggest prospects coming up in Jason Dominguez. And now we are saying goodbye because Jason Dominguez suffered a torn UCL in his right elbow that is going to require surgery. And it's going to go to Tommy John.

Here's my question though, because I found this interesting. The general consensus on a hitter when they suffer this injury and they have Tommy John has been like a six month time period where they could theoretically kind of get back into it. So what that would do, if that were the case, is that would put Jason Dominguez probably in line to come back during spring training, probably be good for the season for the most part. There's always a foreseeable like month or something like that. But according to Aaron Boone, the recovery time is looking closer to nine to 10 months,

which would be way more significant to the year. So any thoughts on this injury as far as Tommy John for a hit or goes and your expectation of recovery time? Because I feel like those don't quite match up. I feel like six has always been at least maybe it's when they can start ramping stuff up. So maybe they feel there's going to be a couple months needed of like really ramping up and then rehab assignments and spring training missed and blah,

blah, blah. But what do you think about that recovery time for Jason Dominguez? Well, let's see here. We have, I think, in Bryce Harper, a very sort of best-case scenario. Also, just really easy lineup-wise to take Bryce Harper and put him in at DH, whereas I'm not sure that the Yankees lineup can handle that. Get Stanton out there every day in the outfield? Yeah, exactly.

I don't think they necessarily want that. So that may be part of what they're baking into that. I also was just thinking that Trevor Story, let's see here, he had it January 10th or 9th. That was longer. had it January 10th or 9th and he came longer. Well he came back about 30 games ago. So about a month ago. 27 games

ago. So he came back in late August. Mid-August. So mid-June mid-Januaryust so mid June mid mid January to about seven months yeah that's a little more than the six that people say you know yeah so it's about seven month recovery time a little bit harder and what was Harper's again Harper's was like wasn't it like I mean he because he they the expectation was he was he was going to come back to two or three months after I want to say his was

like five months. Does that sound right? Harper goes undergo. So he did November. Uh, he did. He had a basically right after the season. Cause he knew he needed to like six.

So, yeah. Uh, and when he come back, he came back in like April, May. I think he came back in May. So, yeah, it's about six-ish.

Remember when he came back, they said he couldn't throw. So he had to be the DH. He didn't even start playing first base until a couple months later. So maybe part of the problem is that they're just like, yeah, it could maybe be seven months uh but then if i tell you seven months now then seven months from now you're gonna start bugging me about jason dominguez when i don't necessarily have a place i can put him if he can't throw so we're just gonna call it nine to ten months so you don't bug us until after the all-star break next year well the one thing is

if um i didn't see if he had the surgery yet i don't think he did but if you're doing the math you've got october november december january february march they're six months april the first season is seven so on a quick recovery maybe he's back by may 1st um if they're giving him that but again he might not be able to throw may 1st he might not be able to throw until july 1st, if they're giving him that full go. But again, he might not be able to throw May 1st. He might not be able to throw until July 1st, but he might be able to hit May 1st. So maybe you can activate him for a long rehab. You could activate an option to him.

But you just probably don't also with a 20, 21-year-old kid. You want to have a full recovery. You don't want to set that apart. And it just puts a big wrinkle into the production. I think I had been saying on here. I would have said make him your opening day center fielder otherwise, right? 100%. I think there's an argument that he was going to be a top 100 pick next year

with how he's performed and hitting three, maybe hitting in a prominent part of the lineup for the Yankees. Now he's a stash. Now he's like a prospect stash. He goes back to being a prospect stash. Kind of what we talked about. The only benefit is you get the il so you could take him at the back end of your draft you can stash him on il yeah if you do exactly yeah it makes it more difficult for like an nfbc league you're not going to want to you're not going to want to take

him when you don't have some injury roster spot maybe like a big old giant like 50 you know draft and hold but in some of those platforms are just not going to work so even though you have to treat him as someone that you don't know how much you're going to get from and that always makes it hard on draft day to really invest and really what it does is it just makes him not really an option for next season that's what's going on like when he gets closer and we get a better idea spring training you can be in a fabo palooza at some point. Yeah, you could join Fabo. But you know what?

February to March, we'll find out some information. They'll be like, oh, he's superhuman. He is a Martian. He's ahead of schedule. Or yeah, he is lined up to this and we can make better decisions. From a dynasty standpoint, you're good. From a keeper standpoint,

the really biggest change is that if you had like, let's say, a smaller eight keeper league, Dominguez went from like yeah you got to keep them to no you just probably don't at this point unless you've got big IELs the Yankees are rebuilding if you're in rebuilding you could just do it I think it's a great opportunity if to your point if you're in a rebuild and someone else is highly competitive into next year trying to buy Jason Dominguez I would buy him right now because now that he won't produce I think rebuilding teams can get him for cheaper.

So I love that idea. As far as people this year, you can safely cut the replacement Estevan Florio. It's like that. Have you ever seen that Grand Theft meme where they're like, here we go again. Like walking down the street. Like that's how I feel about Estevan Florio who is, I mean, he is, the street like that's how i feel about estevan floreal who is i mean he is he made his major league debut in 2020 and he has just touched a little bit every single year he's had his best

minor league season 28 homers 25 stolen bases but he's had about a 30 k rate at triple a hit 284 i don't have big i think he's an insane athlete but the big strikeout rate doesn't make me feel better any excitement for you for Estevan Floreal no that strikeout rate is pretty aggressive and it also reminds me a little bit about age at level because at this point especially given the progression that he's he's taking the fact that he's this is his third time at triple a like you can put age of love at age at level stuff on back burner for certain types of players i think um but this i don't think you necessarily do that for him like he's 25 at triple a for a reason it's not covid it's not injury you know it's because of his play it's because of the strikeout rate so when you look at the fact that he's 25 and a triple a and he has a 129 wrc plus i in fact uh think that that's

much closer to average than it first appears i completely agree like i would be looking for significant yeah i'd be looking for significant changes to him and i'm talking like he's been a 30 k guide just forever i'd be looking for that to be down at like 23%. And I can be like, oh, you know, that's kind of positive. That's something we can build off of. But it's not. He has had a lowered ground ball rate. It's the lowest since AA in 2021.

And really, he's only had a sub 40% ground ball rate. I mean, we're talking like 15 different instances of minor league and majors. This is the fourth time he's had the lowest ground ball rate. So maybe that's a little bit encouraging, and it's a higher line drive rate. But it's still a huge strikeout problem. I'm just not. There are replacements we'll talk about as we were giveth, jason, and taketh. Or taketh away, we are given a top prospect, which we'll talk about in a second.

We are, you know, also talking about a guy that hits the ball hard, but hasn't hit the ball hard like Ellie Dela Cruz or O'Neal Cruz or Giancarlo Stanton, where you can sometimes say, oh, well, he strikes out 30 percent of the time, but he hits 120-mile-an-hour piss missiles every other day, and so he's going to run like a.350 VABIP. There's some evidence he could run a high VABIP, but I don't think that the batted ball quality is so good that he's going to hit his way past 220 or something. There's a chance, though. I mean, ATC has given him a 383 projected BABIP, which seems insane, but if he can manage that,

and he has managed that basically at AAA the last three tries, or two tries, then he can have a 245 batting average. But I think you're much more likely to get something in the 220s along with power and speed. I think you're much better off getting really any of your production anywhere else. So Floreal is not someone I'm – Oh, wow.

Well, I'm just – Yeah, yeah, yeah. If you're in like super deep league, like okay, but there's – I would rather like Rafaela. I would rather Parker Mehta. I mean like every prospect that has been called up, I would rather like Rafaela. I would rather Parker meta. I mean like every prospect that has been called up, I would rather him. Who knows?

Florio's got the physical skills that he could go off and rattle off. Like, you know, a triple, two stolen bases and a home. I mean, I'm not, I wouldn't discount it, but it's just like, I just, he's going to strike out a whole bunch. You might have like two good games. We're playoff time. I'm looking for more constants than I am like dart throws. Also, just sticking with the Yankees here for a second,

wanted to point out as well, Yankees, Luis Severino officially out for the season with a strained left oblique. Replacing him was Johnny Brito. They brought up a reliever, but there are questions, I guess, to the release. So what do you think they're going to do with the rotation now that Severino is out?

Well, I hope that they add Randy Vasquez to it. I kind of like Vasquez a little bit. He's got something more than his current strikeout and swing strike rate suggest, I think. And I get a little bit of, uh, um, who's that lefty in the Phillies,

uh, Ranger Suarez vibes a little bit. Uh, so that's not, I'm not saying he's amazing, but I'm saying he could be usable, uh, streamable in the right matchups.

Uh, interesting guy. Uh, my other reasoning for Randy Vasquez maybe being, um, important is that um michael king is stretching out and he's he's been great and i'd love him but 83 innings uh would be i think a a high since he had 149 in 2017 which is a long time ago um so i would i would expect them to slow down on him and or at least need a caddy to go along with them i can't imagine that they're just going to

pitch michael king five innings every uh five times out the rest of the way um and so if you do that and you are the yankees then uh and then there's also Brito like you know how long is Brito going to go into each game so I think Vasquez is someone worth mentioning even if Brito is the guy that takes the job I'm gonna fall into Severino next season at all I think I will if I love especially I think there's some information that we can get between now and then that would be useful, like where he goes. I mean, especially if he goes to a place that has some, you know, history with reclamation guys. Like if he went to San Francisco or if he went to San Francisco or if he went to LA, yeah,

Tampa. I would, I would like all those because, you know, Tampa and San Francisco, at least he has a nice park, you know, behind him. And then all three of those teams have somewhat of a reputation for being

able to, to help people. So, you know, if he did end up in one of those places, he jumps up my board a little bit. He's already not someone that I'm going to knock completely off my board. No way.

The velo is not that far off this year, and he's not that far removed from being a good pitcher. But we are still, I think right now I'm talking about uh a bench pick uh yeah someone deeper yeah bench pick uh but somebody that i would be excited to like maybe in if he was in the ale like a ale only three to five dollar pitcher like still someone that i think of as more than a one dollar guy you know someone that i might actually think about when i'm putting together a plan $1 guy, someone that I might actually think about when I'm putting together a plan. I think you said it best,

paying attention to where he goes. If it's a money grab or if it's more of a reclamation, if you get the right team, like you said, Mariners, Giants, when I look at Giants and Tampa Bay. He might be a Giant.

That seems like a total Giant thing. Those definitely sound good. In a mini project prospect, not so many, we're throwing in here, talking about Jason Dominguez. So getting at the Yankee news out of the way, the replacement that you could have is a guy that I thought should have been up way sooner. I can't get over, by the way, how two teams fighting aggressively

for the playoffs did not call up their top prospects, and then they did when they're not eligible now. The Diamondbacks brought up Jordan Lawler, which we'll talk about in a second, but Pete Crowe Armstrong, I believe this morning, the news broke, or maybe it was late yesterday, that Pete Crowe Armstrong is officially being called up by the Chicago Cubs.

Neither player will be eligible for the playoffs, but they can get some run out of him. Pete Crowe had a phenomenal year. He started in AA, 14 homers, 27 stolen bases, a.289 batting average with a.238 ISO. He then goes to AAA. Problem was his strikeout rate did increase just under 30%, but he hit.271 with another 6 homers, 10 stolen bases. That is almost a.2040 season in barely over 100 games played in the minors,

which I thought was really impressive. AAA, he saw an increase in his ground ball percentage, but still trying to get the ball in the air. He's also seen a slight decrease kind of across the board over the last year and a half of the way he's pulling it. But this is one of those guys

that can spread it to all fields. I think he's one of those classic five tool, number three type of hitters i love pete crowe armstrong but want to get your take on seeing him for we're going to get this little three week window that if i lost jason 100 would i jump up on pete crowe because i think he is a 12 team five outfielder pickup for sure yeah yeah he's got the power and the speed he's got a track record of striking out less than he's he struck out this year i mean the things that i'll be watching for how much i want to invest

in him next year will be how much he swings and misses swing strike rate i'll be definitely tracking that i'd like to see uh his what his max ev is uh He only got a 107 this year in AAA, and he is, I know these are older numbers that they were working off here, but the fan graphs gave him a 35 to 45 game power and 50 to 55 raw power. So I'm not saying that power is a question. I think the question is how much power.

And I'd like to know, I'd like to have some sense of how much power I think he's going to have. So whether it's barrel rate or max EV, depends a little bit on how much sample we get out of him. But I will be tracking his batted ball quality, and then his swings and misses. Those are the two things that I think will determine the extent of his ceiling going forward

a little bit more than his raw homers and stone base totals in the minors but do you think you're going to get you have a good grasp of what that ceiling is in the three week sample at the end of the year compared to whatever adjustments can be made you know with like a major league off season if you look at his swinging strike rate,

they've been traditionally high in the minors. And swinging strike rate is something that stabilizes really quickly. So he's going to see, you know, over these three weeks, hundreds of pitches, you know. So when you get to hundreds of pitches, you can say something about swinging strike rate. Barrel rate will be touch and go because barrel rate is usually about a month you want and 50 balls in play. So I kind of doubt he gets to 50 balls in play.

And so I will have to do some guessing based on how much he lifts the ball in the major leagues. That's been up and down for him. He's had ground ball rates of 45% and fly ball rates of 55 percent at different stops so um you know i kind of want to see for pete cromstrong like you know something about you know his ground ball fly ball mix maybe his hard hit rate and his max ev more than necessarily his barrel rate because it won't quite be enough sample for the barrel rate uh who'd you rather have we also saw the call up over the weekend of evan carter evan carter really done much um hitting 200 got striking out a whole bunch he's also walking a bit he did get his first stolen

base i believe he has one hit in his first five but he's walked uh twice so evan carter the only reason i bring it up too is like these guys have they share similarities as far as like rank perspective goes you I think both might have a little bit of pop up on the power aspect yeah yeah who would you rather invest in rest to season like you know you lost Jason you lost somebody else whatever you have to pick one Evan Carter or Pete Crowe you haven't and it's not fair because you haven't seen Pete Crowe yet and you've seen a tiny bit of carter but who would be your pick um what's this game log look like for evan carter you've been playing every day since he came in yes yeah and batting ninth uh third uh against somebody in oakland and then ninth again.

Oh, actually on that game where it says he's batted 30, he didn't bat, so it must have been a pinch hitter situation. So he played. Yeah, yeah, yeah, you're right, because he only has eight plate appearances and that he didn't acquire any when he, he probably was just a defensive replacement or a pinch runner or something like that. So I'm guessing that game, where I can click on it,

was started by a lefty, Sean Newcomb. Yep. All right, so he's sitting against lefties maybe. Both of these teams are trying to win, so they're just going to use these players the best they can, which might mean some might be in platooning for Capri-Cromstrong. Was there a corresponding move who do you think he's playing over

unless they just move Candelario is well you've got Bellinger you've got Suzuki and you've got Happ you move one of those guys into a DH spot and then you can I think that's what you can end up doing and then you can get Pete Crowe

time in the outfield because you're not going to Bellinger plays first then basically in this situation yeah sure you can move Bellinger to first Candelario to third Morel becomes utility and Morel takes Pete Crowe Armstrong's at bats against lefties that sounds

that sounds about right Morel backs up candelario when his back hurts okay so you go under some presumption that maybe both of these guys are in some type of some form of a split playing two-thirds of the time yeah exactly so you know the what could be with pete crowe versus the what you're starting to see with evan carter i feel like the answer for me is pete crowe but yeah i think it's kind of strong just because the questions for carter on the power end are a little bit louder and he hasn't quite answered them this year whereas you know carter's uh chrome starts in the middle of answering those questions about power you know what i mean

i mean uh evan carter had a 167 iso and double a this year um that's that's not for a guy who's also fast and who has a frame like he does he's very skinny yeah and also looking here um this looks like the tennessee numbers here i don't know why i don't have the the iowa numbers but in double a pete crowe hit 306 against righties,.247 against lefties. So he's not completely unusable against lefties so far this year. And that's not always the case with some of these guys. So I think the power potential is bigger with Pete Crowe. I think he's as much of a stolen base option as Evan Carter.

Evan Carter, the Texas has just been kind of trending down. And maybe it's a little bit of the newest, shiniest toy that lives out there. But I've also been screaming about Pete Crow for weeks and weeks, and this is the guy to really get excited about. It was Pete Crow and Jason Dominguez, and you lose Jason for Pete Crow. Why not? I guess I'm dismissive of Estevan Florio because he's not a good player. He's not a great player.

He's a good AAA player. He's not a good Major League player. Pete Crow has been a really solid two- great minor leaguer that's going to get an opportunity and hopefully maybe hit a little bit higher on the batting order as well and the cubs are in the thick of it rangers really don't seem to be so i'm kind of a armstrong guy we got uh you know we we got a couple things right uh last on rates and barrels. In the early part of the week, we said that Jordan Lawler was going to come up soon, and you were right about that.

And then on Friday, we did a long discussion of Evan Carter in anticipation of him coming up. So both those guys came up. I think Lawler and Carter, to some extent, show you when you're in redrafts, that it can sometimes be folly to reach for these prospects. Now, I'm not saying that Lawler is not good long-term. I'm just saying these are the first 12 plate appearances of his life

in the major leagues, and it's not maybe too surprising that he's struggling to make contact and hasn't hit a ball over 80 yet. He doesn't look good right now. He doesn't look good. Cool that I was right. Hey, super happy for me. I'm like, hey, look at me. I was right.

He stinks right now. They said he's going to 100% play against lefties. They also are messing around with potential third base when righties are in there. I think Lavelle is the type of guy that is going to want to build confidence and is not going to throw him out into the wolves every single day, but he ain't doing anything. He has one hit through 11 total at bats.

He's striking out 50% of the time. I mean, it is not a good look. So hopefully the turnaround happens soon. And luckily he has a great teammate in Corbin Carroll, who those guys are very good friends that can hopefully kind of ramp him up but from a fantasy perspective like you could this is the playoffs like there's no reason to hold or anything like that but it's right of a next that's what i was gonna say like you you can move on probably and we were saying that you know a lot of times the best uh way to do this is um to give them that week or or maybe

even a week on the bench where you replace a guy on your bench with Jordan Lawler watch him on the bench for a week and then his manager starts talking about he'll play against righties. Was it righties or lefties? He'll play 100% of games versus lefties. See that I don't want to hear that.

As soon as I hear that I'm like oh so he's mostly playing against lefties and then he's going to sneak in against righties and he's going to sneak in against varieties that's not good that's that's we're talking about 33 playing time or 40 playing time i will tell you the diamondbacks of this week they have seven games three are projected versus lefties four against righties they're playing every single day and they are um yeah but they've got still talking about like myth four starts for lawler maybe yeah but yeah you are right about that but they've got the mets for four games and then they're in chicago or no

then they're in arizona against the cubs again the two biggest question marks is you've got sanga and steel in there and then you do have hendrix again so there might be some tough sometimes you're like oh he's playing against lefties well some of the best pitchers in this league are lefties so like yay he gets steel you know how excited am I that he got to play he gets in there against steel so um I think you know would let me just check this most added list here uh for some other and middle infielders that i might uh like uh now that i feel like i've made it so royce lewis is uh is is in a most added uh spot uh davis schneider uh you know uh is most is in the most added mi spot uh situation um i'm trying to look for middle infielders that are less owned because there's a lot i mean back to the ronnie mauricio thing ronnie mauricio is getting

playing time he's under 50 owned according to cbs's platform and he's on a bad team so he might play every day uh and so he is i think so if i was looking to just capture the next lightning bit like i might just pick up mauricio uh for lawler you know yeah I think you can kind of move on from I'd love for the idea to be able to put him on the bench but also like what are we doing it for there's a week or two weeks left in the fantasy playoffs yeah yeah if David Snyder's out there you drop Lawler in a heartbeat for Snyder but it'll be a bigger look for to next year because Lawler looks like he will have the I mean I think all these guys Evan Evan Carter, Lawler, uh, Pete Cromstrong, these are all guys that are viable to break camp as starters with their teams. And these will all be the top rookies

we're looking at. Jason's now off the table for the most part. So these are the players. So these next two or three weeks are probably really important to what type of early investment we're going to want to have and then pair it against whatever spring training adjustments. There's another shortstop that just came back up into the big leagues. Zach Netto is back with the Diamondbacks. And I would think that of the Angels, I'm sorry. I would think that Zach Netto, Jeremy Pena and Jordan Lawler are all going to be kind of interesting back end shortstops, deeper leagues, interesting keeper acquisitions in the offseason. All three of them have taken a hit in terms of maybe what people think of their upside or how good they are.

And all three of them, I think, become attainable. With every bad plate appearance Jordan Lawler has, he becomes more attainable. So all three of them are maybe attainable this offseason. All three of them will be interesting late drafts. And in fact, Netto might be the one that i especially when we start looking at price if while they're cost more than netto netto might be my favorite uh of the three one thing i really like about him is that he just hasn't struck out that much i think more walks will come in the future also a 10% barrel rate is pretty decent.

A 1099 max EV, like, he has a little bit more power than I think some people give him credit for. And if he's going to strike out 20% of the time and barrel 10% of the time, I think that he has better batting average potential than people are giving him. He's got a 241, Netto does, and he's projected for, like, 250.

If he strikes out 21% of the time and barrels 10% of the time, why can't he hit like 260, 270? So I see some potential here. And of those names that I've mentioned, I may like Netto next year. It'll depend on Lawler's cost, and it'll depend on what he does in the next few couple weeks. But I think Neto's shown enough to be a back-end 12-team shortstop. Definitely back-end 15-team.

Will you like Neto on an Angels team that has no Otani or Trout? Or Trout? Because there's rumors out there about Trout might request a trade and the Angels would acquiesce if he does request it. And I always fall for these players on bad teams where I'm like, what could go wrong? Now Neto's the number. Why am I down in runs and RBIs?

Now he's the three hitter, but it's for a team that has Noah Chennault and that's it. And they have no other players. Yeah, and he finishes the year with like 60 runs and 65 RBI. 70 runs and 41 RBI with 15 homers in your life. All right, this is cool. Thanks for that. At least it was cheap.

I got them less than Lala. I get your point with that. And I do think I completely agree with your assessment when you're talking about like the barrel rate tells us the hard hit rate's not there, but the barrel rate and a expected batting average that's actually a notch higher than his current batting average. Those are things that are like,

Oh, you know what? As a hitter, some of this stuff might be sustainable. And if he can add any, you know, hard hit balls to the game next year, it might be a bigger push.

And maybe this is a player that is like a 15, 20 guy, but it's also like, you also might have absolutely nobody playing on the team. They, they might be putting together a team that looks like what the Nationals are. Yeah. You know, that might – maybe he's C.J. Abrams.

Definitely Safer is like a cheap monolith guy. But like, oh, another usage for him, draft and holds as your second shortstop. Love that, you know, because, you know, what I did a lot of this year was draft and hold. My second shortstop was jp crawford a guy who was going to play every day and worst case scenario if my other shortstop gets hurt i'm just putting in a guy who's playing every day you know what a great year he's had too right and i think netto could have a similar thing where he's 22 what if he grows in a little bit more like you

said hits the ball a little bit harder next year um yeah but the runs in rbi will not be good here would you yeah yeah would you cut lawler right now for netto yes because he just got activated yes yeah i think i agree with that but i do think i mean no surprise i'm a homer i but i also think jordan lawler is just exceptionally a better player i think lawler will be the guy i'm invested in next year but i also don't want to pay like a 150 if he ends the year with like a 125 batting average and everyone's like, I don't care, and everyone's paying the high price. Like, I think Pete Crow might be one of the priciest of all these guys, but if I get a discount

and Lawler's outside the 200s and people don't care about the minor league numbers and they only care about a three-week sample size, I'll have a lot of shares of Lawler next season within that Diamondbacks lineup. It's an explosive Diamondbacks lineup that'll let him run. And they've already,

Lovell has already put him in some positions they had higher. So I think that's relatively encouraging, whatever the hell they want to do with Carol. God knows if they want him to be a three or a lead off, or they just move them around seven. They just continuously keep. I'm not writing his epitaph or anything, but yeah,

for this year, I'm moving on. There are a couple other comebacks as well just want to throw them out to you michael conforto almost back and we saw joey vato and jonathan india both come back india i think actually had a nice homer stolen base combo game joey vato maybe on the swan song there's some interesting stuff out there about just him and i saw this article about him wanting to just disappear once he's gone from baseball but any thoughts on the potential comeback of conforto why do all this why do all this tick tock joey did you believe that do you buy that where he's just like i just

want to disappear like i'm gone i mean he definitely is he's been a quiet guy for most of his career i just it is just the actually the social media recently has been weirder for me because he wasn't, he didn't strike me as that kind of guy, but I wouldn't, I thought, well, maybe he's just trying himself out for a media gig. I was about to say,

he seems like he's going to be locked into some like show on MLB network, like next year. He doesn't need to either. No, he doesn't. 225 million. He made like, like 250,

$260 million over his career. So maybe he wants to do a travel show and he just wants to travel around and be like joey vato in the maldives you know like i don't know i don't know what he's trying to be maybe he's right he'll just he'll just disappear uh he he does have an interesting personality that um i don't necessarily think he'll like you know it's a little weird how many other players have gone on with chris russo and like directly sort of attacked him you know what i mean but he also kind of like he did it as a joke and he made it a fun thing but at the same time like i i i don't know how super thick

skinned he is and like being in the media does require that to some extent. That's not my best foot forward, and I hate it. It's not my worst attribute is my thick skin. But it is part of the game, so I don't know. But with Votto and Conforto and India, I mean, the Votto-India thing is interesting because Matt McClain is still a couple weeks out. We may not get much of him this rest of the season because obliques are just super tricky like that.

And then Noel B. Marte got hit in the face. And so right now, even the MLB trade rumors write-up I was reading on this move was suggesting that everyone can play until Marte comes back and then even then you can push steer to the outfield so I have a feeling this will hurt a Reds

outfielder somehow and that's always my default but Bader is playing only against lefties. So Bader is in a platoon, I think, with Friedel. Okay. So then is it Steer or Freightly?

Benson and Renfro. I guess what I'm saying is it'll be Bader, Friedel in a full platoon, Steer in left, and Renfro and Benson in a full platoon. So that hurts Renfro the most. Can't imagine they're not going to have Renfro in that lineup, though, every day. That's my only problem with that one. I think it's good. He's been below league average for the season.

I just also wonder if this is something that just hurts Christian Encarnacion-Strand moving forward where you just don't see any playing time from him. Let him get a break. Sit down, kid. Let Joey Votto take care of work. I don't know. I think it's going to be a little bit of a mess. And then, like you said, you throw India back into this. He got playing time. There's a lot of nasty stuff there kind of towards the end. Luckily, I mean, with the McLeLean injury he should be good to go but there's just a lot of fluidity I think you're right about Strand the reason that I'm gonna agree with you on Strand

is not that I I think he's hitting has been okay I mean 91 WRC plus for Anarka Anasio and Strand but I think uh one thing that impressed me was uh when he was here in town in san francisco was that his defense is not good no even at first it's not great so basically what i'm saying is you play joey vato at first and and incarnatio strand is a dh and once you have incarnatio and strand a dh then anytime you want to fit Renfro in the lineup and Benson or somebody's knee hurts or something they get DH and Encarnacion and Strand sit so I agree with you

I think Encarnacion, Strand and Renfro are hurt the most by these activations yeah Strand maybe becomes just like a pinch hitter as well is there anything like preemptively stash on Conforto right now for your last couple of weeks? You said he's coming back. I don't know. I mean, I just wanted to wonder out loud, like, you know, what his career looks like

from here on out and, you know, how much is the park and how much is, you know, because it's it is the worst bail rate of his career, the worst maxi uh coming off a shoulder injury he's 30 years old do you do you give him like okay well this was the year where he comes back and the next year he's fully healthy he gets the normal off season and then he gets back to you know maybe 2019 levels where you know he's a 25 to 30 homer hitter uh depending on what the ball is like comes like adam devol he like he just becomes adam devol again or something like that like i don't mean he's always had better play you know it's always had better played play discipline and k percentages so it would be adam devol with a better ovp so yeah i guess the the good like

when adam devol is like good not the bad version of him which he shows off i don't know i'm probably going to be less interested in conforto probably about situation on on you know like what are we in what's around him is is are we going to get into platoony no he's coming back because i don't think he gets more than 18 million dollars on the open market after this year right um no chance there's no way but i think he takes that 18 million and comes back right is it a player option yeah oh yeah he probably already has a certified letter uh in the mailbox it's like i'm i'm gonna option it hundred thousand percent but then what does that look like on the outfield i know uh strata was playing more outfield you've got to have room for matos

uh you got your strimsky i mean like i don't know what that looks like maybe you just dh him and he's just kind of committed dh which might be a better spot i bet you they don't sign uh jock peterson back they brought jock peterson back for the uh qualifying offer so they paid 20 million dollars for jock peterson this year and they're going to get one win uh in terms of wins over placement and a dh that's 16 better than league average like jock has been is not it's just not worth 20 million dollars you know so maybe they uh re-sign jock uh on a one-year deal or something but i think if they look and they say well we're stuck on conforto let's not sign jock

peterson and get some flexibility back so that we can put conforto in there the days that we want to play everybody else because mitch handiger is under contract for next season yes stremski's got one more year although i do think that near the end of his arbitration at some point they will consider DFAing him because a two-win player, which kind of seems like Jastrzemski has settled in at, is sometimes replaceable. Don't you think Matos could be a two-win player if you just gave him every day? Yeah, absolutely.

He's just showing that off defensively and everything. I was hoping in some sadistic world they get rid of Jock Peterson and replace him with Tommy Pham in the offseason for agency, but that's just the sadistic world they get rid of jock peterson and replace him with tommy fam in the offseason for agency but that's just the sadistic part of my mind of just wanting that fun irony i would love it i love tommy fam i know it's your boy that's your boy but it would be it would be pretty hilarious to replace jock peterson that's yeah that's only i'm i'm just going for the cheap joke more than anything else yeah well i think conforto's got a job uh i think it'll be most of the time i

he you know i do like that he's gotten back to his the contact is good the the walk rate is good but the bad of all quality is not good enough for me to think he's anything other than a short-term replacement throughout the rest of this year i wanted to mention him also because the schedule favors the iffy giants they hit color Colorado at the end of the week, and there are on waiver wires everywhere Mitch Hanegar, Michael Conforto, and J.D. Davis. Just pick one of them. I don't even know.

Maybe look at the matchups, but there's three guys. Two of them are righties. They're going into Coors Field. Just pick one of them up I think you know they're all looking decent uh in terms of health and and and playing okay so yeah I mentioned that I looked at fantasy pros has like a matchup uh grid and they gave them the number two matchup this week of any team seven games two against lefties five against right. And as you mentioned, they end the week Colorado and they start off Cleveland. So it's a pretty good, pretty good matchup set here.

Let's talk about some pitching. DVR would be just so disappointed in us if we didn't talk about this. He probably would have led the show with this, but we got to talk about what happened with Milwaukee yesterday. It was such a weird scene. Corbin Burns pitch eight hitless innings then gets replaced by devin williams who pitches a uh perfect ninth no perfect no hits uh the yankees then they had i'm just reading this was like from the article uh abner rebate comes in volpe hit a line drive

my kids are like there's never been a a no-hitter into the 11th. And I was like, well, now there won't be. Yeah, because they were two outs away from the first ever 11-inning no-hitter in Major League history. Oswaldo Cabrera ended up breaking that up. In that game, just taking a look over at, I hit all my different sheets. They're almost closed.

Everything. Corbin burns. Velo was interesting. The curve ball was up. The slider and cutter both down. The slider was down by a mile and a half on average. His cutter was the dominant pitch. There was 61% of the time had eight whiffs,

but only a 21% swing and whiff rate. It totality was 29% swing and whiff rate. Its totality was 29% swing and whiff, 28 CSW. Feels like some pretty low CSW and swing and whiff numbers for a guy that went eight hit lists. But just your thoughts on that performance from Corbin Burns. It was amazing. And I think, you know, honestly, Cole went toe-to-toe with him. Did give up a run and some hits. But, you know, I thought Cole went toe-to-toe with him. Did give up a run and some hits.

But, you know, I thought that was a great pitching matchup. It was really enjoyable to watch. It was a crazy game with Sal Freelick and Joey Weimer knocking each other out to get that last ball in the 10th. Joey Weimer comes off with a bloody mouth. It was a really fun game to watch. I almost felt like the runner on 10th robbed us of the chance to have a no-hitter in the 11th.

I mean, it was just, you know, yes, Oswaldo got a hit, and that would have been – the no-hitter would have been gone. But there's just something about you have a guy on second, you pitch differently. That's the whole point of it, but I just wonder if he'd gotten an empty inning to start with if that wouldn't have been a no-hitter. That was just a random thought. I thought the Yankees looked dead in the water at different times in this game,

and they were even talking about how quiet it was and it felt like a spring training game they were saying um and then it gets the the the heroes of the game are oswaldo cabrera and kyle higgy or shoko so uh yeah it's not the best of times in uh in new york um but it is interesting to see these young like some of the young guys pull through cole reggins who's been the talk of everything cole reggins had a weird game because he had these three just atrocious balls he ended up striking out six he walked six went five and two-thirds but only gave up one hit he's insane but he had these three wild pitches that went like consecutive uh his velo up across the board. I mean, four seam is still, you know, a mile and a half over

what the season average is even after this little set of insane starts. 33% swing and whiff rate, double digits on any pitch he threw, 10% or more. CSW was down a little bit, but, you know, the changeup was effective. His slider was the best. It had the most swinging whiffs it had six for 55 percent whiff rate on it but this was the first like non superhuman performance by cole reagan so a lot of walks is there anything you're taking

out of this from him any concerns off of the struggles or you know i mean he walked six but he didn't give up only one hit he kind of popped back through so thoughts on cole reagan's i i i'm still totally in yes he had a 93 location plus for that game it's not not like the number is going to be like yosh but he actually located the ball really well i mean no some of those went like into the stands so um the location plus on that is not good but for the season uh he still has a 101 location plus. And then if you look back at his minor league numbers, yeah, like very early on he had some higher walk rates.

But ever since he's hit AA, his first taste of AA, 36 innings, 12% walk rate. Then like in AAA this year when he's learning a new pitch I mean he's learning a slider for the first time he had a higher walk rate I would think that the walk rate he has right now is is just basically what he's

going to have 9 to 10% it's not like he's going to be a guy that leads the league in command and has tiny walk rates that's not him he does kind of he does spray it around some but if he's going to be a guy that leads the league in command and has tiny walk rates. That's not him. He does kind of, he does spray it around some, but if he's thrown 97,

98, 99, then it's going to work still. It's not, it's not the kind of command where you say Edward Cabrera, for example, was running 15, 16,

17, 18 walk rates in percentages in the minors. That's a command you have to worry about. Have you settled on what the value is going to be next year in your mind? Like what redraft SP rank he's going to hold in your mind? Are you settled on that top 30, top 40? It's hard to do it without actually doing it. But just off the top of my head, it seems like it's got to be it's got to be top 50 i think it'll be closer to top 40 i mean you think you you would

put them in like where like where'd you put a joe ryan last year like going into this year cole reagan's is similar right pop-up guy that's showing you everything you want to see but even better raids huh but reagan's, I would say, at this point. Yeah, I agree with you. I think he's somewhere between 30 and 40. I think some people might pop him top 25. Just based off of it, I think it's a little too risky. And maybe, actually... This is a guy with two Tommy Johns, too,

so it's not like you can give him the full bill of health. Yeah, and I don't want him to struggle for anybody's playoffs, but it wouldn't hurt for him to have a little bit of a down performance here or there just to bring that value back. Throw a couple more pitches into the stands, dude. Yeah, exactly. You know, I'm going to skip that. Well, I just want to mention Pablo Lopez went eight, struck out 14.

He's just been bonkers from a strikeout perspective. 45% swing and whiff rate, 40% CSW in that game. Sweeper's been a big addition for him. Yeah, 40% swing and whiff rate on the fastball sweeper and changeup in that game, which is really awesome. But I really wanted to get your take because I don't want to time ourselves out. Keaton Wynn went six, struck out nine. He had 22 swinging strikes on just 80 pitches.

18 came from the splitter, and he had a CSW of 48%. So, Giants being Giants, talk to us about Keaton Wynn. This dude is crazy, man. Last time I checked,

he was throwing his 56% split fingers. What? Crazy. It's nuts. checked he was throwing like 60 is 56 split fingers what crazy it's it's the nuts like it's so nuts me and my kids were talking about it you know like it is it is nuts but if you think about it there might be something going on in san francisco kevin gossman alex cobb keaton win these are guys that throw the most percentage-wise split fingers in the big leagues, I think. So interesting that they seem to have identified that if you can command

the split finger a little bit, you can just keep throwing it. Although Keaton Wynn has been injured this year, and I would also say that 56% is higher than what Cobb and Gossman are running out there. Is it sustainable? Can you throw it 50% of the time and be a starter? It seems impossible to me, dude. It just seems like I would say no. Would you put him back out?

I mean, he's got, it looks like, oh man, he might have his next start at Colorado. Let me look at the color. I think that's where he would line up. Yeah, there's a to be determined San Francisco starter on Friday, and that would probably line up to win. So at Colorado. What would be the next one after that? I'd have to go.

I only have the week in front let me see if i can push it here i can push it up here the week after that would be looks like oh it didn't adjust oh i didn't adjust uh here we go when did he pitch last i think he just pitched on yesterday saturday or sunday yeah exactly so one two three four five yeah uh friday at the rockies one two three four we go back to the dodgers oh is it la one two three four five and then padres at home no oh yeah i was looking at the wrong way yeah yeah no thanks if you get the padres at home september 26th if you're still looking for a streamer maybe but I don't want this next one I don't want to touch that

yeah I'm looking here because this one coming up yeah no no no no that's going to be a pass trying to see how excited we could be about him the splitter usage is crazy I just I think we both agree that the sustainability of that is probably not there anything also on John Means John Means is

about to make his return on tuesday i tend to shy away from guys coming off of injury i think this is a no-go for me are you willing to put john means out there no i don't think so one thing that um you know is interesting to me is that uh there are studies out there that say the command is uh you know is the first is the first thing to go like the first it doesn't come back right away uh the first year after tommy john surgery you know we are talking with means with somebody that command is a big part of what he does um so you know i'd be a little bit nervous about that home run rate uh coming back if the command's not fully there and then it's a little uncouth but

I just not a hundred percent sure what his breaking ball looks like in the post-enforcement environment and so I want to see how he can spin it because he is a little bit like a Marco Estrada in that he has a decent fastball and a good straight change. But Marco Estrada was always pretty much as good as whatever third pitch he was fooling around with at the time when his cutter was good or when his breaking ball was good or whatever. That's when Estrada was better. And I think just like any other pitch that needs a change up, he needs a breaking ball. And so I would i would much rather watch him from the bench uh there's also some news out of the dodgers camp uh that uh they they were

surprised uh by kershaw's worst ever uh fastball velo um in that start and they're going to basically skip his next start um which i thought they're pushing him to friday gavin stone looks like he's going to pitch here on monday and they're pushing kershaw to friday is the the current word yeah and i thought it was going to be he was going to get one of those nationals games so um uh i think they already pushed him a little bit to get him to that padres game and then um yeah they're going to push him what what is it what is the start he gets then he gets uh mariners so is that right yeah uh let's see dodgers is a friday it's mariners it is mariners kirby it looks like he go he'd be toe-to-toe with kirby who doesn't want to go 90 i i you don't have to go 90 if you don't want man i've done what to do listen i've talked to

him a lot and i i have a little bit slightly different read he's smart like an analyst i think he was analyzing the situation i smart like an analyst i think he was analyzing the situation i think he was mad i think he was mad by the way like i'm i'm i love kirby i don't hate on it i'm just joking like i think he was frustrated and out of frustration you say stupid stuff and i totally agree you take a frustrated smart person who's analyzing the game and out he's saying something i should have been taken out and it comes out as sounding like i didn't want to be there yeah which i'm not i think those are not the same things and maybe i'm giving him too much credit but i i know him he is a bulldog like i don't like it i don't really get he's not the kind of guy i i don't i don't get this reading

that everyone's like oh he's softening george kirby because what just fully he said something like you know i was at 90 pitches and i should have been i shouldn't have been out there or something you know and everyone was like oh he how could you want to be out of the game we're all competitors blah blah blah and roger clemens is out here blasting him and houston street is blasting him and like everyone's i didn't see houston street and i'm like, dude, he is a bulldog. He wants to be really, really good, and he cares a lot, and he thinks about this craft, and he works hard.

So I don't get that. I get this analytical thing where I think he was saying, given that I had thrown 90 pitches, I probably wasn't the best option, and it was frustrating to me to be left out there when analytically i can tell that like maybe that wasn't the best you know and you ask him when you're frustrated and what happens like i say stupid stuff and i'm frustrated and he was frustrated and that's how that that's what his stupid came out was sounding like he didn't want to be there which he is one of the the mariners have some insanely competitive pitchers

so not to pick on him uh by the way the last thing i want to end there, which he is one of the Mariners have some insanely competitive pitchers. So not to pick on him. By the way, the last thing I want to end with is just a couple things I just saw come down. The Orioles confirmed that Felix Batista has a Porsche partially torn UCL, but they are saying he, they're still open to him returning this year. So you might pitch through it.

Yeah. He might pitch through it. Chris Bryant is coming off the aisle on Mondayay and nobody cared nobody i mean exactly what i was gonna say to silence and good for him hopefully he returns i don't think he got i don't think he got fab to any of my 15 team leagues which is amazing because they're home all week in fact that probably is a missed chance for some i just i got Hunter Goodman. We bought Hunter Goodman in my main because he's home for seven days. I would hate if Chris – I'd be mad if Chris Bryant takes first base at bats away from Hunter Goodman.

Ooh, I bet he does. That's going to be stupid. That's going to be stupid. Well, they paid him so much. Speaking of stupid, is that contract? It's going to be one of the worst. And then the Brewers selected Josh Donaldson. So I'm sure that'll go over well in the clubhouse.

Brewers are bringing up Josh Donaldson to hang out. I wonder what DVR is thinking about that. We made a joke about Josh Donaldson going to the Brewers. I think it was a joke. And now it's reality. So is he going to start over Monasterio? And Monasterio's going to start over Tourain because Tourain's mostly about defense.

Yeah, well, you know, I'm sure it's going to be great. It's going to be a great clubhouse move for everybody. It'll be all positive and all sunshines and rainbows. So those are a couple pickups there as we get you. We are shipping you off into the week with our takes and analysis. Follow Eno on Twitter at Eno Saris. You can follow me at IsItTheWelsh. And go over to TheAthletic.com slash Rates and Barrels.

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