Rates & Barrels - Building a Breakout, Pitcher Edition

Episode Date: April 24, 2025

Eno, Trevor, and DVR discuss the Orioles' slow start and mounting pitching injuries and wonder -- is this a 2025 playoff team? Plus, they dig into four fast-starting pitchers in search of potential breakouts, and how teams can try to combat increasingly aggressive basestealers within the constraints of the pitch clock and limited disengagements. Rundown 6:44 Do You Expect the Orioles to Make the Playoffs? 13:56 Tylor Megill: New Breaking Balls Supporting a Breakout? 22:52 Casey Mize: Delivering on the 1.1 Potential? 27:38 Kris Bubic: A New Sustainable Mix in the Royals' Rotation? 34:00 Hayden Wesneski: What's New in Houston? 41:46 How Can Pitchers & Catchers Slow Down Basestealers? 1:04:17 Name! That! Dude! (2025 Record: Trevor 3, Eno 0) Follow Eno on Bluesky: @enosarris.bsky.social Follow DVR on Bluesky: @dvr.bsky.social Follow Trevor on Bluesky: @iamtrevormay.bsky.social e-mail: [e-mail] Join our Discord: https://discord.gg/FyBa9f3wFe Subscribe to The Athletic: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels Hosts: Derek VanRiper & Eno Sarris With: Trevor May Producer: Brian Smith Executive Producer: Derek VanRiper Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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wherever you pod, we're there. Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. Welcome to Rates and Barrels, it's Thursday, April 24th. Derek Van Riper, EnoSaris, Trevor May here with you on this episode. We'll get to some baseball news you should know, but the main focus of today's show is a segment we're calling Building a Breakout. We're looking at some fast starters in 2025, trying to determine if this is going to be

a massive step forward or a small one. So we've got a quartet of pitch pictures we're going to break down for that. We've got to name that dude later on in the show. So if you see, you know, shaking on YouTube, that is why he's nervous. He's hearing us talk about it pre show. It's been in the rundown since yesterday. So we've got that. We're also going to talk about how teams can try to slow down

opposing base dealers in the current environment. Our friend Ben Clemens over at FanGraphs wrote a great piece about how aggressive teams continue to be under these new rules. And we wondered, well, what can you do given all the constraints on disengagement, having to work with the constraints of a pitch clock? How do you stop opposing base dealers? So we'll dig into that a little bit later on in the show as well. If you haven't joined the discord yet

You can do that with the link in the show description That's the best place to send us mailbag questions And if you're watching us and you shoot YouTube be sure to hit that like button Let's get to some news Corey Seeger on the IL with a hamstring strain This is becoming an all-too-familiar story for Corey Seeger just has the worst Injury luck the nagging sorts of stuff now plaguing him after some bigger stuff earlier in his career as far as the Rangers depth goes, you know, they seem like a team that's pretty well constructed from a Useful bench players perspective and the good news here is it sounds like it's going to be a near minimum

I else didn't for Seager as well. So it may just be a couple of weeks before he's back in that lineup I get an excuse to talk about Josh Smith I always want an excuse to talk about Joss Smith. Joss Smith is one of my favorite players. It's just he is remarkably good at everything and nobody knows who he is. I feel like I would pick him up if he's going to play every day. He's this he's the kind of guy who if he was given a full year would hit 250 with a good on base percentage and have like

15 homers and 20 steals. So that's probably worth plugging in almost any lineup, I guess, 10 teamers. That's a little boring, but, uh, you know, pick up Josh Smith. He's a good player. Yeah. Stabilizing his playing time does make him a nice, useful short term ad in the absence of Seeger. We saw a note that Blake Snell has been shut down from throwing,

had a bit of a problem with his shoulder playing catch, which is just brutal. I mean, this sort of setback, I assume it's going to take him a few extra weeks to get back. Haven't seen any follow ups in terms of like new information regarding the extent of his injury. But Trevor, this is a Dodgers team that just continues to layer high end pitcher after high end pitcher on the depth chart, taking on injury risk, and we keep seeing

that injury risk rear its head at various points. This is one thing they've done better this year than they did in the last few years, and they are pretty well, I think, insulated to this stuff. They have lots and lots of options, and they're willing to go to bullpen games also. So like, even if that's an option, that's something that's worked for them in the past.

So I think they'd done a really good job, obviously, of being able to weather things like this. I think in the past, maybe last year, if this happened, there'd be alarm bells all over the place, especially knowing that Shohei wasn't gonna pitch that year and they can take it as slow as they want with him. And I know Kershaw's thrown again, so there's options, they got guys, but it is, you know, you pay a guy like you paid him.

You don't wanna see an injury that's arm related. Cause he, for the most part, he's had some stuff in his career a little bit, but like none of it's been arm related really. It's just been, it was the back a little bit last year and getting, you know, it's just like hamstrings, it's just like torque type injuries. But frankly, shoulders are concerning a lot of times,

but sometimes it's just fatigue. And it's just not quite being ready to go and a lot of things kind of lock into that as opposed to like you feeling sharp pains in your elbow. At least that's not what we're talking about here. It's just maybe he's got some lasting dead arm. He's in his early 30s now, he's throwing a lot of innings. So a lot of this is normal. I'm not super concerned about it I think we're gonna see a couple more opportunities for the likes of Landon Nack and maybe Bobby Miller as

Snell misses more time. That's been the plan so far I don't know if any of the fallback options have pitched so well that there's a clear next guy up right now It's just sort of a who's on schedule, who fits in right now, we'll figure it out later sort of approach that the Dodgers have been taking. We did get an update on Grayson Rodriguez. The MRI he had last week revealed a right lat strain. It's the same kind of injury that knocked him out for two months last year. I kind of think that's the timetable you would build in naturally.

You can say he's already missed a month, so maybe we're still a month away from really ramping up to the point where we see him in games again. It sounds like he's a couple of weeks away from resuming throwing. You know, the question I think is more from a fantasy perspective first, like we kind of dabbled in this last week. Is he a drop if you're expecting him to miss another four, maybe even six weeks before he's game ready again?

Yeah, it's not a good diagnosis. And the rest of season projections now are down to 78 innings. If you could wait for them, I think they'll be good. Like he's a good pitcher. It's just that, you know, you could bank stuff in the meantime, and try to get them back later, you know, that's the kind of game that you have to play in weekly leagues with short benches. I think if I had him in my main event team, we'd be talking about dropping him right now. I think the longer I've played, the more irritated I've become with leagues that have no IL spots, or at least small enough benches where a player like Grayson Rodriguez gets cut, because that feels like a step too far. I think you want to have tough decisions to make in any sort of game,

but that that's like one level too far. Come on, man. Like you you invest a lot in players in the early rounds. They break down for a little while. Cutting them is brutal because I think you're right. I think when he comes back, you may get a half season in line with what we expected. You may get that step forward from Grayson Rodriguez. So we'll see how things progress here in the near future. The bigger question

I have for both of you though is as the Orioles have this rough start, they're missing key pieces in that rotation. Eflin's down while Grazian Rodriguez is down. Depth has been a question. They will eventually get Kyle Bradish back. We're going to see them lean pretty heavily on Brandon Young probably for the next couple of weeks. We've already talked about Cade Povich having an increased role as a result of these injuries. Sugano being a guy that has a ton of pitches but doesn't really have anything that generates a lot of whiffs. They're really duct taping it together right now in the rotation and they've gotten off to a poor start. You look at the playoff odds at Fangraphs right around 30% for the Orioles right now, Trevor. So as we sit here in late April, do you see the Orioles as a playoff team in 2025 given the start they've got and the injuries

they're already dealing with? They've so frustrating the hell out of me. I won't say it's all the front office. I was asked this question a week ago too, and I don't know if the new ownership is, frankly, better. I don't know if the new ownership is frankly better. I don't know if they just saw an opportunity to get an asset that makes a bunch of money automatically. And that's the role they're gonna play, which is pretty much the same thing it was before.

I've not, so I haven't really heard much out of the mouth of Rubenstein that tells me he likes baseball and that that's why he's in it. And you just look at the moves they've made. I think he's kind of played the part a little bit better. He's said nicer things. Yeah, I mean, in public, yes.

But in terms of like, Business wise. Yeah, title to the weather and like, who's actually, He's just gonna do the same thing. Yeah. Yeah. Like, are we trying to go now, is getting new men or new ownership gonna make us like a team that goes for it? I don't think so. I think it's the same thing.

He's gonna be worried about, you know, the X's and O's and the bottom line at the end of the day. That's either here or there. I just I'm like this sounds a lot of this is a lot of corporate speak. And they had an opportunity, I think, to add just a couple veteran-winning pieces on the pitching side. And they, I love Charlie Morton, but he has really struggled and, you know, he's 40, you know, there was only so much you could have expected. And that quite wasn't enough for me. And so it was kind of like not that exciting to start the season. They didn't really do much.

They kind of just held Pat. They added a couple little things here and there, but, and they're really leaning on these young guys to just like continue to get better and better and better and better forever. And there's some guys that are like Gunnar Henderson. I'd say, I'm like, that's kind of, you can't really expect more than this, right?

And so a lot of these guys are kind of playing up to their potential. So you need to like, they need the experience is like the only thing missing and they just didn't do anything about that. Now, you know, they're struggling out of the gate and, and, and guys aren't performing and the pitching has just been not great. They were just a couple of injuries away from devastation and they've had those

injuries and they've seen pretty devastated in the starting pitching rotation. It hasn't been a great year for the one year contracts. I don't think, you know, so I can't say like, oh, instead of Charlie Morton, they should have signed Walker Bueller, you know, or any of the other guys that have been that have been signed on one year deals. I think they should have just not done the one year deal thing. Like, I don't think those guys, those types of free agents are not like turning your staff around. You're happy if they're decent average pitchers and a lot of times it's the end of their career. Like that's what happens with

these starters. And as much as I love Charlie Morton as a person, like I would have rather they packaged that 25 million that they spent on Charlie Morton and Tomoyuki Sugano and got a better pitcher. They're still gonna have to go to the cupboard at some point anyway. It would be behoove them to have like a Max Fried in the rotation when he's healthy, more than it really helps them to have a bunch of fours and fives. And those fours and fives right now are pitching like fives and sixes. But even if they pitch to their projections projections what you see is a top 10 offense that has the worst pitching staff among the top 10 offenses the top 10

offenses in the league obviously are like the top teams in the league Dodgers Braves Yankees Mets Phillies Diamondbacks those are the top offenses that are ahead of the Orioles they all have better pitching projections than the Orioles the Orioles frankly are projected to be a below 500 team right now. And I think it's all on the pitching staff. I think that they just didn't do enough work there. I'm completely with you. And I think it's a bit funny that new ownership, I think, needs to earn

the reputation of being better by spending, by extending core players, by doing things that actively make the team better in the long run. I don't think you'd give them the benefit of the doubt. I think they have to earn that. David Rubenstein having the bobblehead day for himself in year one or year two. But like, like, that's amazing. An owner bobblehead. Is that like the last thing you want in a bobblehead?

What? I didn't know about this at all. Oh, that like the last thing you want in a bobblehead? What? I didn't know about this at all. That's the dumbest thing. I think if the Mets had a Steve Cohen bobblehead, no one should have one. Like if there's no Steve Cohen bobblehead and that one, like they call him uncles.

He's got a nickname, guys. Like I understand that one and the guy maybe deserves it. He's like basically, the fans are like, we need this. He's like, all right, let's try it. like he's basically done everything they wanted them to do. That's pretty crazy I don't know whose idea that was but what are you doing? Is it was there were the Angelos is that bad? The answer's probably yes Holy moly. I feel like you just need a few more people in the chain of command that can stop something like that Clearly you have too few people in a position to say,

wait a minute, let's not make a bobblehead of the owner. If that actually happens. The owner thinks it's a good idea, who's gonna be like, I don't think this is a good idea. To your owner? Someone has to just like, hey, don't do this. Like, let's try this, come up with an alternative.

There has to be a way. So are we three for three though across the board? Not a playoff team this year? It's gonna be a stretch. It's such a good offense to waste. Yeah, it's a shame if that's how this actually plays out. I did see that Porter Hodge got the save on Wednesday, then saw a note that Ryan Presley

had his knee drained this week. And we've already talked about Ryan Presley's stuff continuing to deteriorate. So maybe it's only a matter of time before opposing hitters have to catch up with him a bit more often and Hodge takes over that job anyway. But if you had any doubts about Porter Hodge maybe being the next man up in that Cubs bullpen, I think the usage this week probably gives you that nudge that you needed to wait it

out a little bit longer in leagues where you are looking for saves. Hodge is the guy. Yeah, Hodge looks like the guy in a bullpen still looking for a lot of other options to help get to the 9th inning. Let's get to our main topic for today. Let's dig into some pictures we think are finding a new level in 2025, building a breakout, lot of names to choose from here. Trevor, let's start with you.

Tyler McGill. We wondered a few different times if he was putting the pieces together and the park certainly helps from a fantasy perspective. We're always intrigued by Mets pictures with good stuff that could possibly take the leap. What's different about Tyler McGill this time around? Because we've got a lot of people out there listening who've been burned in the past expecting all the pieces to come together for McGill. Is this the year that he finally puts it all together over a full season and maybe becomes a good mid rotation guy

with plenty of strikeouts? You know, I was there for the Tyler McGill break onto the scene in I believe 2021. He did a lot for us and then kind of struggled a little bit and was hurt a little bit in the next couple years. And the question with him was, he's a big dude, he's 6'6", 270, he's a monster, and he's got one of the best extensions in the league,

he's usually 99%, I think he's 94th this year, which is fine, well over seven foot. So he has this height into a lower release height thing. So like that's usually if you got ride that way, usually it's more effective. I was a guy who benefited from that type of stuff. And his ride was just always kind of like, okay, it was high above average, but it was okay.

He was always kind of searching for what is like, what a wipeout breaking ball would look like. The change up was the thing he was most comfortable throwing, but it wasn't quite a swing and miss pitch, though it has improved. Now we can spin it. So I am really excited about McGill this year

because there are some big, big improvements. Guys don't improve, I think, movement and stuff as much as he has. So to put this into perspective, both his slider and his curveball look like they have possibly. I gotta ask Jeremy Heffner about this. I don't know if they changed both the grips, but they are both moving way more

with not a huge, especially in the curveball side. That thing is moving two inches more drop and two inches more sweep. That's from 2024. Okay? So the next one is from 2025. He's added two inches and two and a half inches respectively and then added three miles an hour. So like that is a much better curve ball. It went from 78 to 81 on average and you can see the quality of his swing and misses. This is just filthy.

I was watching this live. Like that is a much tighter version of the curveball. I was like that looked like it was speeding up as it went towards him. And the other one used to kind of just tumble, more of like a flip it over type of curveball. The Max Scherzer type, I know he was there and Bassett and him were talking about

just get the curveball over and he kind of was using it that way. Now it's a weapon. And then on the slider side, he's added six inches of drop and one inch of sweep, which is Crazy and he's only lost about a mile and a half mile an hour and a half on that So they are definitely trading off Velo for movement, but six inches additional drop Is crazy and I think we have the videos for that you can definitely see it in these two the angles are different

But they look like completely different pitches. They're just wildly more effective. Also, he's added one and a half inches of ride on his four seam fastball addition. So like, now the two pitches that interact with the breaking balls have way bigger discrepancy in their movement, and if you tunnel them off each other, they're gonna be much more effective.

He's always been a strikeout guy. He's got 30 Ks and 24 innings this year. But you can just see how guys are reacting to the movement. It's moving way more, all three of the pitches. To add that much stuff to those three pitches is pretty crazy. Now one thing that's interesting, and it's a question for you,

is his stuff plus went up on his curve ball from 92 to 99, but it went down on his slider from 112 to 106, which is interesting because he added the V-Low and stuff, so I would love your opinion on that. So those two pitches are kind of like, kind of stayed the same on average, but his overall stuff plus went up 10, because both fastball, sinkers, and four seam went up.

Loves the changes to the fastball. I could see it, I mean, the slider actually lost a tick, you know, so there was a movement. Be a little bit see it. I mean, the slider actually lost a tick, you know? So there was a movement. A little bit of a movement VELO kind of trade off there, I guess. I think the curve ball just looks better to me. I agree with you. And it added VELO. So that makes sense.

Yeah. So I think that it makes sense. It certainly could be better than its rating. I don't know. The two fastballs is the key for me. He has his best fastballs he's ever had and I think he has enough secondary to continue this. Plus, at some point, you start to believe the demonstrated strikeout rate. He only had trouble striking out people the year that in 2023. Every other year, he's been around 26, 27%. So I believe in the strikeout rate.

So strikeout rate is consistent and it's solid and obviously adding more movement on pitches generally helps that. But also, I love competitive location as a stat that I get off true media, just because it gives you a general control. Statistic, anyone who doesn't know what that is, because it's not really commonly known everywhere,

is it's a circle drawn from the center, diameter of 18 inches. So are you within 18 inches of the center of the zone? So anything outside of that is like, the chances that a guy swings at it goes way, way down. It becomes a waste pitch, a pitch that has no value at all, because guys just know it's a ball the whole time. He has improved that by 1.2%

and it's gone up about a percent every single year, which means he's just around the zone a lot more, which means his breaking balls being bigger means he might get more chased farther out of the zone because they know he's gonna be closer to the zone. So a lot less like sporadic outlier pitches as well with those kind of tight, hard breaking balls with kind of a lot of movement,

those things are gonna work really well together. So he's now above average in competitive location for the first time in his career. So that's an also indicator. His walk rate's still like just over 10%. Still too high, but it's not the issue. It's not great natural command probably. Not great natural command,

but control comes before command. So we're seeing control improve. Command then comes from there, so the longer he, he can get away with that, and if that number keeps edging down, he's going to be really, really good in my opinion. The more like dominant he is in terms of results, the more he can, you know, up the zone rate and be just, you know, this is not his best zone, right?

So there's a chance that he could, you know, up the zone rate to 53% like he had in 2021 because that, that's partially due to confidence, right? Like Hunter Green is the guy who's added the most zone rate. And that's because he's like, Oh, man, my pitches are really good. Let me just throw them in the zone. You know, so I think when McGill gets to that, the only flaw I see on McGill is that they're keeping him at 90 pitches. And

he's because he's doesn't have this great command yet 90 pitches is not getting him past the fifth inning. And so he does have the tools I think to pitch deeper into games because I think the thing that you want is a wider mix and multiple fastballs and he has a pretty wide mix and he has multiple fastballs. So I think it's about confidence. If he can just throw it in the zone more, he can stretch that 90 pitches out to and get to the sixth inning, which is really important for people in quality start leagues. It's been a conversation. I don't think right now

that I would assume that he can go deep into games. It's in those quality start situations. He's not maybe the best breakout that we'll talk about today because they seem to be really limiting him. It's almost like the Drurasmuson plan or something. Maybe it has to do with his health issues in the past. That's what I would wonder about too. He hasn't had a lot of, like he really hasn't had any full healthy professional season as a starter.

It's been a lot of injury setbacks along the way, a few role changes along the way too that have kept those innings totals down a little bit. But he's probably my favorite pitcher on a per inning basis that we'll talk about today. Like if you just, you know, in terms of how good he'll be when he's on the field. Yeah, I think he's probably the best pitcher we're talking about today. Yeah, probably a lot of situations where you feel comfortable

just rolling him out there, even if you're not expecting more than five innings in a start from Tyler McGill. How about Casey Mize, you know, is he finally delivering on that one-one potential that we've been waiting for? You know, the thing about Mize is he's really just improved across the board and over time he's found, I think, an interesting breaking ball mix. I don't know that I can say it's great. I don't know that he'll ever have a great breaking ball, but this new slur that he's throwing is getting whiffs and he's got a 27% whiff rate on that slur. And I think that it has like an interesting movement pattern that where he

can kind of play it off the split finger a little bit. And, you know, he just needs to have a weapon against righties. And when it's at its best, when you see this pitch here, you kind of see the potential for Casey Meyers because, you know, just having a pitch that he can do this with to righties, I think that's just a huge step forward for him, you know, because over time he's got the best ride that he's ever had on his fourth seam. He's got the VELO back, he's throwing the splitter harder. You know, there's all these things that he's done, but it all depends on having a good breaking ball.

And what he's done is he has another breaking ball, he just throws as hard as he can and he has that slurve. And I think he's pushed it to like averages. So if he can be, if he can iron out his reverse splits a little bit by using that breaking ball, I think that's the source of his breakout. I don't know how much it'll continue because he's not doing it with the strikeouts.

Like McGill, you can see the result of all his work in the strikeout rate. With KC Mays, the strikeout rate is still 18.9%. And that's just a lot of balls in play. And at some point, you won't have a 194 bap whip like he does now. That batting average across the league is 290. For his career, it's 281. So he'll regress some when those balls start hitting in. But I do think that the slurve will keep him from doing anything like Casey Meis did last year with the 4-4-9 ERA and the 1-4-7 whip. Like, I think he's more of a high threes ERA guy because the splitter is a real weapon and he's throwing it super hard and the slurve looks like it can be good enough.

Is this the split he was throwing coming out of Auburn? I mean, that was the best pitch in his arsenal when he went first overall in that draft, and he's never thrown it as much as he's throwing it right now. He's also never thrown it as hard as he pointed out before, but 24% usage is more in line with what I would have expected based on the first scouting reports I saw from Maia's coming out of college. Is this sustainable in terms of the mix that he's throwing right now? Yeah, I believe in them. I believe in the mix and the harder splitter I think has allowed him to just

throw it in the zone more and trust, trust the stuff. So a lot of this is stuff that I wanted that I wanted him to do. I can't get behind it all the way because the slur doesn't really rate that well by stuff plus and a pitch like that, I don't know. It looks better on video than it plays in the game sometimes. That's interesting. Yeah, I look at it and does it open up other pitches though? Does it make other stuff more effective? Is that part of where the value comes from? That's the thing. It's the same V-Low band as the splitter, but it doesn't move the same.

So I do think you can play them off each other a little. Yeah, interesting to see the big jumps though. Zone contact percentage, 82.7%, lowest we've ever seen from Casey Meyers as a big leaguer, so that's moving in the right direction. 11.1% swing strike rate, also a career best. That probably points to a little nudge in K-rate. If we said 21% for a strikeout rate going forward, 22%,

is that an actual attainable strikeout rate? Cause that at least gets you a little closer to where you want to go. And if he starts getting deeper into starts, maybe he offsets the lower strikeout rate by volume and efficiency. Yeah, I think, you know, repeating his 2021 where he had 150 innings with a 371 ERA and a 115 whip, that seems well in hand for KC Myles.

All right. Well, I think the Tigers fans out there would be happy with that. And if you drafted Myles late, you'd be OK with that, using him mostly at home and occasionally on the road for matchups that you really like. I'm going to try and make a case for Chris Boobich as a breakout candidate here. He's changed a lot during his time in the league. I mean, it's also, I think, complicated because it happened around an injury. We started to see these changes in 2023. He got hurt, had Tommy John surgery, came back as a reliever in 2024. Now he's working in the rotation again for the Royals. And if you look at the pitch movement profiles from three years ago versus now, he's added a couple of pitches.

But you also see pitches that don't move the way hitters expect them to kind of across the board. Right. And I think that bodes really well for a guy that doesn't throw particularly hard. The first thing you would notice, I think, on a pitch mix page for Chris Bubich is it's a 92.2 mile an hour four seamer. He throws it less than he used to because the mix is deeper.

That sweeper he added is a really big pitch for him. And I was surprised digging into him a little bit, he throws it against righties more than I'd expect. It's a back footer, like that's probably the only safe place to really throw that pitch consistently against the righties. So I was looking through some video. This is the expected usage of a lefty sweeper, getting it down and away against Christian Jelic there if you're watching on YouTube. But even burying that one backfoot on Jose Ramirez, I think that's a pretty important pitch for him. And a lot of this comes to command too. Nothing's overpowering,

but aside from being a little bit different than what hitters are expecting, I think Bubic locates everything pretty well. And that sort of makes this arsenal play up at a higher level. Yeah, he does pass the dynamic dead zone test, looking at the dynamic dead zone stream lip app that Max Bay made.

His fore seam has more cut and more ride than you'd expect from his arm slot. And his sinker also does not fade as much as you'd expect. So it's weird where I think it used to be kind of an insult to somebody that had like a straight fastball. Is that kind of like, that's like an insult, right? Like, it's like, Oh, it's not a good one. It's a straight fastball. But now I think people understand that straight fastball, if it's unique, if it looks different,

if it's different than expected, can be an asset. Yeah, watching some video, too, I saw him throw one to Michael Harris and Harris's reaction, you could see it did not at all look like the fastball he was expecting. Just kind of see it in his body language, trying to kind of decide if he's even going to swing at it or not. A couple of other things that caught my eye with Boobish, though, I did a three year leaderboard and again, it's small samples because of the injury in 23 coming back in 24 is reliever and now 25

only being a few weeks old. But Chris Boobich has a 22.8 percent K minus BB percentage in the last three seasons out of guys that have thrown similar number of innings. I said set the filter on like 70 innings. So it's a mix of starters and relievers. That's 26 out of 472 pitchers. He's 38th in swinging strike rate at 14.7%. That's right there where Terrick Scubal lives and he's 78.5% in zone contact percentage during that time, which is 15th out of 472 pitchers. So I know in the different role, like he's not going to have all the same underlying peripherals, but this looks really good overall.

This to me is a very convincing change for Boobish that I think got washed away a little bit because of coming back as a reliever and losing all that time in 23. I think this was already in the works a couple of years ago before he went down. Looks like it. Yeah, I think I'm gonna be wrong on Boobich. I think the model might be missing something with him though too.

Like when you look at the stuff plus breakdown on Boobich, has a shorter arsenal, pitch grades are a little light. It's location first in the model numbers. So I think that's what you would dig into and say, okay, at least I'm, I'm buying out as good command, but I think his stuff is actually a little bit better than the model gives him credit for. A little model talk is just that right now the he's got 471 pitches.

So, you know, the location plus numbers are actually relevant and he's got better than average locations. the location plus numbers are actually relevant and he's got better than average locations. And this is also where stuff plus and K minus BB start to have about equal import in terms of predictive qualities. His K minus BB is really good. You know, 26% K rate, 7% walk rate. That's a 19% average is somewhere around 13 and a half. So a lot of signs are in the right direction. And the stuff is not like it's not saying that he has like 75 stuff. There are pitchers where you'll be like, they'll be pitching well and you're like,

but he has a 75 stuff, you know, like Eric Fetty will like have like a three start stretch and you'll you'll fall in love with him and he'll have a 75 stuff plus. And then he'll give you a start where you're like, oh yes, he has a 75 stuff plus. That's not boobage. So I think that if a guy has average stuff and the average for a starting pitcher is 98 stuff plus, there are so many different outcomes for a guy with average stuff.

And he seems to have some pitch ability, some command, good sense of how his pitches fit together. I think going to the pen helped him. He's like, his VELO's on the better end. He retained some of that VELO from going to the pen. He also, I think, probably formed a core identity where he understands how he gets people out, you know? And now he's iterating off of that.

I wish he had a better stuff number, but I think it's a legitimate breakout. If you added three miles an hour on every single one of his pitches, all of his stuff plus would just go through. Exactly, yeah. It would just go way up. So like, sometimes it just comes down to, if you threw harder, yeah, you would be,

if you threw 98 and everything was like harder, but and it moved exactly the same way, you'd be one of the nastiest pitches in the league. It's just like what it comes down to, yeah. Then you get closer to the scoobble range, but there's some really good interwining stuff. Yeah, you are Scoobble. I was surprised he had, even working mostly in the bullpen

in that sample, that he had a swinging strike rate that was the same as Scoobles. I expect that to be quite a bit lower for Bubic, even though I liked him coming into the season. You know, you took a look at Hayden Wazneski. We were kind of wondering when the Astros acquired him, what would they change? So what's different so far?

And is it laying the groundwork for a massive step forward or is it more of a small step forward if it all comes together for Hayden Wisneski this year? I think it's really, really simple. I expected this to be like, oh, he did this and he did this and he did this. I think it's really, really simple.

He has the best change up of his career. He added three inches of drop to his change up and now you know it looks like this and I think this is an excellent pitch. I mean it just drops off the table. You know that's and it's at 89 if you notice you know that's a that's a power change up right there. He has reverse platoon splits for the first time in his career. He is getting lefties out. I just find that a little bit hilarious because, you know, for his career, he has a, you know, he had a 6'17 slugging by lefties in 2023. And I just put him into the can't get lefties

out, you know, part of my brain. And I thought, oh, he's gonna do the cutter and he's gonna dance, he's gonna walk lefties. I thought that he was gonna kind of do the Will Warren against lefties, but with this change up, I think he actually has an attack plan against lefties. And so that 6'17 slugging by lefties in 2023 has turned into a 2'65 slugging this year, which is probably too low, that'll regress some.

4'44 career, I think he'll beat that number. So he's turned into basically an okay fastball guy with two good secondaries and three fastballs. It's about the best way to make the most out of, you know, not great fastballs. And so I think he's, I think he's, this is a legitimate breakout. Now, I don't know that he's going to become a top 25 pitcher

because it's hard to do that when you don't have great fastballs. So I would still limit him to kind of the mid 30s and 40s of rankings where like he's a good pitcher, he's a really good pitcher. He's like a like a number two or a number three in real life. And in fantasy, that's like a three, four. So I think this is a legitimate breakout. It's just the ceiling is not as high because of the fastballs.

Yeah, it's a wide, six pitches now. That's just a really wide mix that Hayden Wozneski is showing so far. And I imagine he's gonna throw that change up more over the course of the season, like 6% usage through these first few starts. That seems pretty light for as good as that pitch looks. Yeah. And I think he'll get the feel for it and it'll be the really

a big key for him to mock it, because like I said, the four scene fastball, you know, 14 inches of IBB and he has kind of a more over the top slot. I mean, 47 degree arm angle is is pretty over-the-top So that's poor that's poor ride on the fore seam But the sinker has decent movement and since he throws three fastballs now He can just sort of dance around and never give you the fastball you think you're gonna get The related question then for this entire group, you know

Which one is most likely to have a sub for ERA or even a spin-off of that if you think it's multiples How do you rank this group rest of the season in terms of impact I got to do that I got my rankings tomorrow so I'm gonna let I'm gonna let Trevor go first Trevor you got you go my answer is stone in terms of impact on their team this is this is interesting because I'm trying to think inning numbers and they all have their own interesting reasons why lots of innings might not happen. I'll put one at McGill and then I will put two at Bubic

and then Meis and then Wysniewski. That's what I'll do. I don't know why, don't ask me why. And they're all very close, but I think that, you know, Meis has had his injury issues, Boobich is coming back from, has his injury problems, and coming back from the bullpen, so who knows how many innings there are gonna be.

Like, the difference between a guy throwing 110 innings and a guy throwing 160 is huge. So I think maybe Wesneseske has maybe the best chance to throw the most innings or be up there, but I think the other two have been more effective and kind of more on the really, really good side than he has so far. And I think McGill, just from what I've seen,

because I've seen a lot of him and how he's progressed, a lot of this he feels like corner turning. And that the issue we talked about where 90 pitches and only getting him five innings, that's just like five to seven quality pitches a game away from getting into the sixth and then that problem's solved. So when he's going really well, he goes on streaks

and he's streaky and right now he's in one and it could be a really long time. One issue is when things blow up for big drip, as we call them, they got bad. Like a couple times it was like nine runs and three innings and you're like, whoa. Stopping that bleeding has been an issue for him in the past.

So, but I will say, so far, like just, you just don't see guys improve movement that much on that many pitches in one off season. And it feels to me like they found something and they're like, let's do this for everything and it's working. When stuff like that tends to happen, when you're like, I found something,

that's when guys usually turn corners in big ways. So I'm counting on that happening, that's why I have him the one. Yeah, I think I'll flip the order at the top. I'll take Boobich over McGill, but it's very, very close. I think I like Wisneski third in this group and Mize last, even though I buy into the improvements for the entire group.

I think Eno kind of hit the nail on the head. I mean, I think Mize is still though I buy into the improvements for the entire group. But I think, you know, kind of hit the nail on the head. I mean, I think Mize is still going to be pretty useful from a ratios perspective. Maybe he ends up being higher end innings total from this this group. That could that could be something that helps him quite a bit. But I think I'm going to just slightly lean with Boobich here as the the best of the bunch over the full season. There's a secondary reason for that that we'll get to in just a few minutes. How do you have them coming up in the rankings then on Friday?

I'm actually changing them around. I'm not changing their internal order. I have it pretty squarely. McGill, Bubic, Wisniewski, Mize. Wisniewski has a better strikeout rate than Mize. I think, you know, kind of better, wider arsenal. Mize has a slightly better fastball, but I remain a little bit questioning on that curve ball.

I need to see more about it and see if he's really gained feel for that pitch. What I'm changing is where I have them in the rankings relative to other players, because now that we've broken them down, I feel I can put Tyler McGill into the top 50. I've got Buvic just outside of the top 50. Right now, I'm moving Wes Nenske into the top 75 and Mize is just behind him.

So a little bit of a tear gap there from the two top two to the bottom two Four risers and maybe two that we are pushing a little harder as possible big breakouts But improvements across the board for this group Let's get into some other questions about Stolen bases Ben Clemens wrote about the uptick in steals continuing base runners just getting more and more bold with these new rules that were introduced just a couple seasons ago and I wanted to ask you Trevor what can pitchers and catchers try to do to slow down opposing base stealers? It seems like it's harder than ever to do it because of the rules so what tactics are even at your disposal as you're trying to keep that threat at

bay? There's a lot less you can do, which is no frustrating for a lot of guys. So for guys, for example, I was also a person who gave up too many stolen bases in my career. I was slow to the plate. And at some point, I just stopped caring about slide stepping because it just wasn't going to help me enough to the sacrifice of command and stuff and stuff just wasn't worth it. And that was before the pitch clock. So then I had a pitch clock, I was like, well that, I really don't care

because there's nothing I can do about this. So it was, for me it was always just holds, like different types of holds, lengths of holds, just mixing it up and I was good at that, especially with guys in second, like I would do really long holds, I'd do quad, look back four times, I'd look back five times, I wouldn't look back at all.

Mixing up my looks, that's gone. You have time for one or two, like that's it. And you better get your pitch in quick. So one thing that's important is getting your sign immediately. Like knowing what you're gonna throw within two seconds of the last pitch being done, that is one way. So you can actually mix up your holds a little bit more.

I think that being quick to play is obviously the holy grail, but it only goes so far and you have to have a guy with a good arm and who can get rid of the ball. And there's just not that many of those guys in the league. There are a few, but there's not a ton. It's not really focused on near as much because it's just even in the best of scenarios,

throwing a guy out It's harder much harder now So I would say getting your sign in as quickly as possible as number one guys who are really confident in calling their pitches right away Are able to do this not being afraid to use one of your pickoff moves is important But one thing that also I'm noticing is some guys are doing and I've heard people talk about this as well Is that especially relievers that throw out of the stretch all the time, they try to like, even with nobody on base,

they try to like lull you into false sense of security that I do the same thing over and over again. But you're doing that on purpose, and guy gets on base, and someone who maybe doesn't run a month, and then suddenly you change it real quick. So now they're like, he has changed it, even though he doesn't do very much,

he has changed a lot, that little doubt. So you got to create the doubt to get them from running because at the end of the day, no matter how much you get rid of pick offs, if you could get rid of pick offs completely if you wanted to. And the trade-off for teams, how they value these things is getting one extra base is not worth the trade off of an out. It just isn't most of the time. It never will be. The value just isn't the same. It's got to be almost automatic to get it for most guys. And so if you can create that little doubt and create that like the value prop swings wildly in their heads, they just won't do it. And that you still have to

do that. So but what you have to do for that, there's not a lot there, and especially if you're a right-handed reliever, most guys, and the reason we're seeing upticks in this, because most guys have just given up on it and said, the way I pitch, because we're gonna talk about Edmund Diaz as our example, just to segue in there, his thing is,

I'm counting on striking out 14 per nine. So like you can be on second, you can be on third, you're still not scoring on a strikeout, and that's what my game is. The problem is, once those strikeouts start to, you start to, your VLO goes down or you're not getting quite the strikeouts you got used to, you go from really good

to really not good, really fast. Like there's no in between. And that's one scary part about that. So you gotta be able to hold a runner or at least put the fear of God in him for a second. But he just has not done it at all. Yeah, I saw a stat during the Mets-Fillies game on Wednesday when Diaz was pitching 24 stolen bases allowed

since the start of last season, which is just remarkable. I think they've caught two base dealers with Diaz on the mound during that span. Price Harper had a freebie taking third against them because Diaz didn't even look back. And yeah, you can vary up your looks, but if they know you've just forgot about them completely they're gonna take advantage of that every single time it's exactly what happened in that game. What else is in the toolbox you know I mean there's

there's a few other things you can try to mix in you wrote about the inside move becoming a little more important two years ago now. That's such a beautiful inside move. Yes, Tyler Rogers caught Ellie Dayla Cruz. If you didn't read Eno's story at the time, I'll try to throw a link to that in the show description. There's a video in it of Tyler Rogers with his funky delivery doing the inside move on Ellie Dayla Cruz in a critical spot to Gabe Kapler goes on to talk about how it was a game saving, maybe a season changing sort of a play. And, you know, it's just one of those unique things. I think it's Trevor, you could speak to this. How hard is it to have a good inside move, like to keep your balance, to actually sell it, like you're going to the plate well enough to get that runner to cheat and lean off far enough,

we're actually going to get that runner and catch him. It's tough, especially if you're a guy who stands upright because it's hard to tell if you move towards the plate at all when guys are upright. With Rogers though, it's really hard because he's leaning immediately. So you just assume he's leaning towards home. You assume it's really hard for him.

And that's why that was so interesting because honestly though, there was like a slight movement there at the beginning, I was like, that's close to a buck there. Which could be it, but he kind of. It's close to a buck. He did. Yeah, well that's kind of the point.

But he has this little swing kind of thing he does when he starts to lean to kind of get back on his back foot real quick. So like that is what made it so good. And then all he had to do was bend forward at the waist and he thought he was going home. Because there's just, that's what they go off of. And then all he had to do is bend forward at the waist and he thought he was going home. Cause there's just, that's what they go off of it. No one even knows how throwing submarine is, it works.

Like nobody, nobody does it. So like that, that helpful, that's helpful for him. But like. So people know what the inside move is, is when you've got a runner on second base, you basically have two ways to get the ball to second base. And so there's the wheel. The wheel is when you jump around and face first base.

Your chest is facing first base and you throw it to second. And the inside move is where you kind of move forward. You pick up your front leg like you're gonna pitch and then you go, and you swing your leg back around in front of you and turn, yeah. Usually the opposite way that you throw.

So it's hard also to get the throw because you have to shuffle and get the throw. Real quick too, a lot of times the wheel or the spin move, you're timing it, you're looking away and the guy's breaking and you know he's breaking or you see him break and daylight, they'll give you a glove and they just go. And it's not planned usually.

And so you don't plan to do it as you spin. The wheel is just like a reaction. You either do plan, they give you a sign and then they're like, I'm gonna break when you turn your head to look at home. So like the guy thinks like, that's one they usually get their secondary. So a guy who's aggressive, that's who you would do that to.

Inside move is one that you kind of usually put on your own. And that gives, they see you going and they can break. And you're looking at the defender so you can know that if they're there. Like if you do the wheel, you're throwing, you're not sure the defender's there. Like you're turning around and throwing

and you hope he's there. They're either going when you turn around or you turn and you see them break. That's called daylight. Same thing and you spin because it's the fastest. But sometimes that's put on, sometimes it isn't. And that depends on the middle infielders. Some guys just don't look at them.

Like you never look at your second, first shortstop because it's just not something you're used to doing. They're giving you a sign, you don't see it. Like that stuff we practice spring training, it's rare. Most of the time it's a guy putting on an inside move because he thinks that guy's dancing. And if you do an inside move, the middle infielders usually have time to get there. They see you do it.

Because the guy's like falling off. Like they're gonna beat him to the back. So they see you, they're watching you. And that's an option. And then they know which guys will do that and which guys won't. It's really hard to get them off there. They usually always are trying to hold the guy close anyway.

So it's like, it makes sense. So the lean is the big thing. Or you can just be so bad. Like Edwin for example, Edwin could probably get a couple guys on inside moves because they just assume he's never gonna do it. Like they assume he's just not even gonna try And if he does, like on Bryce Harper, he could have just not looked an inside move and Harper would be dead. It would be awful. It would

look so bad on Harper. He just needs to do it once. He needs to get one guy. And if they do that, the guys won't do it anymore because it's usually in the ninth inning, it's usually a one run game. You can't give away and out like that. So, like, you can be so bad that you just pick and choose your spots, that's how I got them. I got two in my career and they were both because the guys were like, this guy sucks at holding runners. And we just, we got him.

And one was in a big spot like that. I was like eighth inning, guys, second no outs. And we put on a play and no one saw it coming. Including me, didn't know we were gonna put on a play. Catcher gave it to me. Hey, we're gonna pick, and I did it, and we got him. I think it was in 22, though I couldn't find it if you ask me.

You know, I think there is something that we, I'm just, it's a conjecture, but I did ask the booth, which includes Tony Gwynn, Jr., who was a pretty fast runner and a bass-spealer. I asked the Padres' radio booth this question. And Jesse Agler and Tony Gwynn Jr. discussed this together. I saw something last inning we really haven't seen much of, and that was a successful stolen

bass attempt against the Padres. What have they done so well here early this year to kind of control the running game? Well, I think it starts with the pitchers mixing up their looks, paying just paying attention to the to the run game. Foul ball one and one. But it also helps to have two guys who can catch and throw. Martin Maldonado has been one of those guys for a long time. We've seen Diaz get better as this season has gone along. I think that's a little bit different from what the Padres have had in terms of the type of

catcher they've had over the past two years. For all the attention the pitchers I know are paying, we've seen some unbelievable throws from both Diaz and Maldonado here early on this year. It's been so fun having a running game be a more regular part of baseball again. Yeah, no doubt. I think it has made it a much more entertaining game to have guys on the move. Pitch is high, snap throw to first Dan, not in time, but there you go again. Donato showing off the arm. Yeah, we've seen him back pick first, second. Those are all things that teams have to account for. And that may mentally shorten a lead, even if it's just by an inch or two,

that might be the difference on a throw down. I think that was interesting that, you know, San Diego has been really good against the run this year. And it was interesting that the thing that I wanted to ask them about happened while they were watching the game. And if you'd listen, there's a back pick that happens. And the back pick, I think anecdotally

is making a little bit of a resurgence because if you think about it, it's not a disengagement. It's a way to throw over to first without using up one of your disengagements. And that's the whole, I think the thing that's made so hard on pitchers is you only have two. And really you only have one. Because once you have two, you're toast.

And so the backpick, I think has become a weapon for those who have the arms to do it, because it is a little bit, I think it's a little bit harder to get mustard on those throws from the weight. Like the backpick is almost like a quick pitch. You're just kind of throwing it fast. Like you have to sell it. You have to like, it can't be like, obviously you're about to throw it to first, you know? It has to be like a quick throw. And so the guys who have the arms to do it, I think it is absolutely a weapon. I would be surprised if we haven't seen a rise in backpicks this year. It's just not something that's tracked anywhere in the database that I could find. So I think that's a weapon. But there's another thing that I thought was fascinating about what

Tony Gwynn was saying was like, you know, who is this? Who is the stolen base stolen on? You know, and so he kind of went through it all. But he started with the pitchers, you know, and I do think that, you know, the pitchers, you know, in that inside move piece that I wrote with Tyler Rogers, I think it was the pitching coach that had them all doing inside moves, and made it into a competitive game thing, where they were rating each other's inside moves and made it into a competitive game thing where they were rating each other's inside moves. So all of the pitchers were trying to, were runners on second base and you had to do your inside move on them.

And then the pitcher that was standing on second base got to rate your inside move and whoever got the highest rating won the game that they were playing, the mini game they were playing. You know, I think that's obviously a really great way to do it because you get more camaraderie even. Like you guys are all like raiding each other's pitches. You know, you're clowning on each other. They probably had fun. You know, I think they probably made this thing fun.

And then on top of it, they're learning and they're doing a move that's important. And then it turned into something on the field. That as a coach would see really, really rewarding. But so you talk about the pitching, the pitcher. I almost think the second most important person might be the pitching coach in this because they are responsible for helping their pitchers vary their looks, do these things. I think the catcher is like almost the third person in this arrangement because what we've

done is we've gotten catchers all to this one level where they all have 80 mile an hour arms, you know, when you get to the major leagues, the modern catcher all can throw well, they all have good pop times, there's nobody in the major leagues that has bad pop time, you know, we've done as much as we can with the catcher. They all have rifle arms and really bad and really small pop times. And you know, I think it's mostly on the pitcher and maybe even the pitching coach when I think about it. So when you were working on this sort of stuff, was the pitching coach that you were

working with? Yeah. And usually there's some guys who are really, really sticklers on it. And it's just one of those, it's like an attention to detail type of skill. It's something that doesn't take a ton of work to build some confidence in. Honestly, if you just have confidence in your ways of holding runners, you're about the time it was looks, but like now that's not really there. But if you're confident in your move to where it's decent and that, you know, if you get a guy just perfectly thinking something differently, that you might be able to get him or you've done it a couple of times. I only had one pick at first and it was Jose Ramirez

and trust me, the only person more confused and surprised than me was Ramirez. But again, I think he was way off because he's like, this guy sucks at picking up. But once you get there- It just takes a little bit of attention. Yeah, it just takes a little bit. And sometimes guys just pitch.

There's very little improvement you can get there and that's kind of where it comes down to. So it's almost like fielding too as a pitcher. You could work really hard on it and even though I'm only gonna have to do this as a starter seven or eight times, field a bunt or swinging bunt or something or cover first probably 10 times all year-ish.

You can be really good at that and you just gotta avoid that one or two mistakes. So like, yeah, it's a trade-off, but pitching coaches, for the most part, are either think it's important or think it's really, really important. And they're just like, spring training is just mayhem for doing pick-off moves.

I think Andrew Bailey did that game. He's like, I get it. This sucks. And if we just do it, it'll be boring. So let's make it fun at least. So at least we get the most out of it. It'll be quicker, which is the name of the game in spring for sure for pitchers. They're like, what do we do have the pitchers do? They already played catch. What else do we do? We got an hour to kill. And you're usually out there doing pickoff moves for an hour. It's a long time to do pickoff moves, but I think it matters more in the current landscape with the current rules and there's some teams that do it really, really well. I mean, you know, mentioned the Padres and they've done exceptionally well going back

to the start of last season, I think third fewest stolen bases allowed. The Royals are incredible. I think 63 stolen bases, by far the fewest. They've also caught 30 attempted base stealers along the way And I think some of that is you know Freddy for me and having a great pop time Sal's not elite in that regard. He doesn't catch as much as he used to but I I don't have all the answers as to how they're Doing it, but that is clearly something they have focused on I think a lot of teams that steal a lot of bases themselves also emphasize taking it away from the opponent.

The Brewers are good in this regard, right? They're an aggressive team on the base pass. Padres run a lot. Yeah. Yeah. I checked in with Dom Cotronio, does the stats for the Brewers, good friend of the show. And I just look at the way that they operate. Dom pointed out, they're continuing to lead the league in fastballs year over year over year, right? Leisure to control the run game when your catchers are throwing off of fastballs that are throwing on breaking balls in the dirt too. So some of it's your organizational philosophy with your pitch selection too that might make it a little easier to catch guys in this facet of the game. Yeah. Then on the other side of the I was actually also wondering when Trevor's talking

earlier about the pitch clock, I wonder if pitchers who grow up in the pitch clock era will have be faster to home plate. Because I wonder if they just do will do everything faster. Seems likely. Because of the block, you know, but then on the other side of the leaderboard, there's, you know, there's some bad news for our homeboy, Shay Langley, they've got 28 successful stolen bases against and only eight caught stealings. But I don't think it's on Shay's on Shay, because Shay Langley has the sixth strongest

arm among catchers in the big leagues. He throws 84. And when you look at exchange time, he's actually got the 13th quickest exchange time. I mean, he's right there with, you know, real Muto, Vasquez, like these are defensive catchers. He's got a quicker exchange time than, you know, two thirds of the league, you know, so I don't think it's on Shea Langley. I think it's on the pitcher and perhaps the pitching coach, because it got a little ridiculous against Jeffrey Springs.

I mean, they were running all over him. Yeah, six in the first inning alone on Sunday for the Brewers in that in that matchup. And there's some teams that are just off. Like the Marlins are horrible at controlling the run. And I think they were actually the lowest in the league in fastball usage, too. So there's a lot of variables kind of blending together here, but something that gets a little overlooked probably will get more attention in the current era.

I am a little fascinated by internal political culture here. So like you have this game and, you know, Springs has all these stolen bases. As a pitching coach, I'd want to be like, okay, we're gonna spend some time now working on our run game. But would you do that? Would you do that the day after? Everybody would know that Springs shot the best? Everyone was like, great, here we go.

We gotta really work tomorrow. Like that's 100%. Also, you're left handed. That's the amazing part of that. You're looking at them. How do you give up six stolen bases? That's crazy. How many of them were first to second? Three of them at least, right? Yeah. You can't give up three steals of... Oh my God. Okay. Well, yeah. I don't think it is Shay's fault because in 2023, he was one of the best to cut, okay. Well, yeah, I don't think it is Shay's fault because in 2023 he was one of the best

to cut stealing rates. And he does have a very good arm, and he does have a good exchange rate. I mean, I know he's not the best receiver on the planet, but like the other two things, the holding runners things, he's one of the better guys at. So yeah, it doesn't line up with his skillset. His skillset is in that direction.

So, and just judging by thinking about the rotation too, it's not like any of those guys are very good at being quick to, none of them are actually. There's not a guy in there who I'm like, oh, that guy's pretty quick. No, not a single guy on the whole team. And they just might, again, it's just like a, how much are we gonna worry about this because,

but like I think they're probably pretty worried about it now at this point. Six is way, way, way, way, way too many. Yeah, that's for sure. You get exposed like that, you're going to start asking some questions. That was the other thing that Dom pointed out. The Brewer's staff doesn't really have anybody who's particularly slow to home plate either. So it's just kind of part of how the pieces all fit together. Although the A's, you know, there's a fair amount of young pitchers, but you know,

maybe Springs just gotten some bad habits as a reliever. pitchers but you know maybe Springs just gotten some bad habits as a reliever well it's time for everybody's favorite game except for Enos name that dude game works like this I provide a series of clues you know and Trevor after each clue try to guess who today's mystery player is season series right now Trevor three you know zero forever zero Actually producer Brian I think is the current Clubhouse leader I think he's got the correct answer ahead of Trevor Eno all three times. Brian's trying to pump me up behind the scenes but I am so unclutched in this regard like my brain does not work this way I don't have no

confidence at the ready there's no no confidence and nothing in there there's nothing in the brain there's no there's no names for me to reach in and pull out well all right so your mind is empty let's begin I was born on September 20th 1978 in trail British Columbia Canada fun fact while you think about that clue the town was first called Trail Creek or Trail Creek Landing and the name was shortened to trail in 1897 a Canadian around is a Joey Vato is not Joey Vato. Do you have a guest Trevor?

Justin Morneau. It's not Justin Morneau. I was dry Guy a hundred times better than your Nolan Ryan was born in 1984. From last time. I think Jeff Otto's around my age I think. I was drafted the 22nd round of the 2000 draft by the Expos out of Gonzaga. Jeff Francis. Not Jeff Francis. There's only other Canadians out there. I don't have any more Canadians in there.

That's your only Canadian. Well, the next clue will probably help. I did not think about Canada anymore. So stop thinking about Canada. Now think about Expos from Gonzaga. Yeah, try to focus on that. I debuted May 23rd, 2003 with the Padres and played center field in that game. It was started by Brandon Webb

I hit my first big league homer in that game off of Diamondbacks closer Matt Mantai Wait, what team do you debut with the Padres in? May of 2003 Mark Brandon Webb and then homered later in that game off of Matt Mantai you say Mark Kotze Is he Canadian no, he's from SoCal So a center fielder for the Padres Mmm, no guest. I'm guessing that he wasn't a center fielder like his whole career It's Sean Green Canadian

He did I don't think he was a pod played for the Blue Jays. I don't think he's Canadian I Won the NL rookie of the year award with the Pirates the season after I debuted oh My god I Have to know I don't why do I not a rookie of the year for the Pirates? Oh This is Jason Bay. Oh, yeah Canadian but I Weird thing

but I, okay so we have a weird thing. We have a weird thing in the Northwest. We have this affinity with the BC guys too. We usually know all them because there's not that many Washington guys, there's not that many BC guys. So Bay is one of our guys of the Northwest lower, but I couldn't remember if he was from Washington or not. Yeah, Bay, I mean the rookie card,

the rookie card he's got the Exposed uniform on that he debuted with the Padres is something I'd forgotten. Rookie of the Year for the Pirates was kind of the first like air quotes easy clue if the Canadian clue didn't already kind of steer you in the right direction. And the other clues, his career covered 11 years in the big leagues, five different teams, 222 homers, 95 stolen bases, a 266-364-81 line the three-team trade that sent many Ramirez to the Dodgers. He's actually part of a few big trades. The other trades Jason Bay was in included Luke Collier, Oliver Perez, Brian Giles, Andy LaRoche, Brendan Moss, and Craig Hanson, who was a big deal at the time.

I remember that I wrote about Jason Bay because I wrote about Curtis Granderson. The Jason Bay deal with the Mets was not a great one. They signed him for like four and 60 million, and he basically played like two half seasons for them. A lot of injury and just not even great performance on the field. And, you know, I think that's soured people

on what was a great beginning to his career. It just was one of those two short careers, you know, where if you just gave him what he did in his first, if you just like did the bell curve thing with him and just had to give him a normal day new model to his career, he would be a 40-war player. Probably not a Hall of Famer, but maybe borderline. I mean, we're talking about a guy who was hitting 280, 30 homers, 10 steals, playing

center field. It fell off too fast. I think it was a lot of injury. I couldn't believe he debuted in center field. The way your face, the face you made were like, he's like, I'm throwing him off right now. He's debuted in center. Ha ha ha ha ha.

One interesting, one funny thing too, I'm preparing for another episode of my other podcast, Cut on the Diamond with AJ Ramos. And I was like, what if it's AJ Ramos? So, and I just looked up a bunch of information on him and you're like, he was born September 20th, AJ Ramos was also born September 20th. So it's like.

But then he said 78 and Ramos was 86. So I was like, okay. But I was like, what are the chances of them having the same birthday? Like that's crazy. So that was just a funny, I got for a second, I was like, oh my God, it's gonna happen. It's actually gonna happen. That would be weird. Maybe next time. On the birthday, that's gonna be the I got for a second. I was like, oh my god, it's gonna happen It's actually gonna happen that would be weird. Maybe next time on the birthday

That's gonna be the best name that dude ever Trevor swooped in though opens up a 4-0 Series lead here in 2020 Good performance terrible as last Very solid L for you know today. I think you can you can hold your head up high build off of this. Yeah, get some momentum for the next one in a couple of weeks. Alright, we are gonna go. Reminder on our way out the door, you can find us on Blue Sky. Trevor's I am Trevor May. Bees got it social. Eno's Eno Saris. Bees got it social. IMDBR. Bees got it social. That is going to do it for this episode of Rates and Barrels

thanks to our legendary producer V Smith for putting this episode together. We're back with you on Friday. Thanks for listening. It's Jason V! Yeah!