Rates & Barrels - Chris Taylor's Three-Homer Game Extends NLCS & Boston's Path to Winning Twice in Houston

Episode Date: October 22, 2021

Eno, Britt & DVR discuss Chris Taylor's three-homer Game 5 as the NLCS heads back to Atlanta, and the Red Sox's paths to two road wins in Houston to rally back in the ALCS.  Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarris Follow Britt on Twitter: @Britt_Ghiroli Follow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiper e-mail: [e-mail] Watch the show *Live* on weekdays at 11:30a ET/8:30a PT on YouTube and subscribe to the Rates & Barrels YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/c/RatesBarrels Subscribe to The Athletic at 33% off for the first year: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Welcome to Rates and Barrels, presented by Topps. Check out Topps Project 70, celebrating 70 years. Topps baseball cards, Derek Van Ryper, Bridgeroli, you know, Sarah's here with you on this Friday. It is Friday, October 22nd. I always say it just in case, you know, my voice is the voice that tells you what day it is. So don't look at the phones.

Good morning, Vietnam. Yeah, I could, maybe I could do a role like that. I mean, I don't know. I don't know what the future holds,

but, uh, lots to talk about on this show. We have game six coming up in the ALCS tonight. We had a very exciting game five, if you're a Dodgers fan or if you're a fan of Chris Taylor, or if maybe you played DraftKings and had Chris Taylor in your captain spot in a single game. That was not me, but you certainly are happy today if you pulled that off. And we begin on the NLCS side where the Dodgers got to Max Freed and with their bullpen game even though Joe Kelly was not good and failed to get through the first inning even though Atlanta took a two nothing lead in the first inning

it was not enough huge win for the Dodgers obviously facing elimination But now the overall feel for the series, despite Atlanta being up a game, has completely changed because of the way the pitching matchups line up for the weekend. Britt, did you feel like this was a, it wasn't must win for Atlanta, but it just sort of opens the door for things to get dicey again, right? To follow the script of last year, unfortunately, just because of the way the schedule actually lines up. Yeah, I want to go on record real quickly and say that I know nothing. I mean, you watch that first inning of the game yesterday and you're like, here it is, the series over.

They get the home run from Freeman, Joe Kelly comes out of the game. I mean, you knew he wasn't pitching deep, but still, you really felt like Braves were just going to steamroll them like they've steamrolled them the entire series. And it just didn't happen. Watching that, you kind of get the sinking feeling, you're right, DVR, that, oh, my God, are the Dodgers going to win this series? Are they going to do this again? Do they like being in an elimination mode? feeling you're right dvr that oh my god the dodgers gonna win this series are they gonna do

this again do they like being in an elimination mode um how did they win that game i mean you look on paper you play that game a hundred times they probably win 99 right but or is this retribution because they had no business winning the prior game when they had the bullpen start so i think what we should do in october is just all admit that we don't know anything and that no matter what we think about it, it's going to go the opposite way. And then you'd probably be just right on the money. Yeah.

I'm a, I'm sad this morning. I'm sad because the bullpen game one, there is no better quote than Cody Ballinger, uh, who said kudos to the bullpen um they did really good from the beginning i don't remember who started yeah i mean look uh we're all humans who like to get credit and pats on the back for the work that we do and like to be called out by name when we do something right so to be lumped in with a group like that, hey, congrats to the podcasters

for making some good shows. I don't remember any of their names. No, I don't think it's... I mean, some were like, oh, that's just Cody Bellinger. I think that's a natural thing. Who's going to remember Philip Evans' name next?

It's Evan Phillips. Yeah, yeah. You already confused it with that in-theater. See? I wrote a piece about him. I wrote a whole damn piece about the daughter slider and he was in it i got his name wrong i wrote that piece like two days ago yeah it's fair it's like good job whoever you are and also i only know that guy because he was an oriole and i obviously pay attention to the orioles more than the average. Evan Phillips. Sorry, Evan Phillips.

No, and I want to give credit. Evan Phillips is great. Alex Vessia has a lot of stuff. He's a really interesting young player, pitcher. Maybe he could be a starter someday. I would think that we would remember him better if he becomes a starter. Well, yeah. That's my point.

So here's the thing that's going to happen. We talked about this a bit yesterday. The future, Andrew Perpetua was giving us some ideas of what he thought was going to be the shape of a pitching staff in the future. Just looking at how the Dodgers did it with an off day today, Gratterall going for two in part because he only threw 14 pitches to get six outs. Blake Trinan went for two. Knabel and Jansen.

Those four guys, Gratterall, Trinan, Knable, and Jansen. You could have any one of the Dodgers pitchers. If Walker Buehler has a disappointing start and only goes five or even doesn't get through all the way through the fifth inning, you could see all four of those guys pitching a game where a good traditional starter pitches. That could happen, right? One inning apiece, not really unreasonable to think that. I think where it really starts to

break down is the first three innings, especially being covered by three different pitchers. That's the part that really messes with our heads. Even if the opener, the new starter, goes three or four, that will sit better with us than three pitchers to get through the first three frames. Something about that is weird. I think one of the things you've got to do, if this is a bigger part of the future of baseball, every reliever needs an entrance video. Every reliever needs to be hyped up and needs to come into a video.

It's not like it'll take more time. It's good. It's good for creatives. More jobs for creative people. So I like that. At least in stadium or something. It's good. It's good for creatives. More jobs for creative people. So I like that. There's nothing wrong with making really unique entrance videos. Really, had the grilled cheese.

The Hansel Robles white horse? Yeah, right. More people know who Hansel Robles is because of the video and the white horse than they would have known if they had never made that video. So I think it's going to take a little bit of creativity

to get people more familiar with this. You don't have to show each entrance video on TV, but there's enough downtime between pitches where you can be like, this is how he came in. But they should show entrance videos on TV. That's actually another good way to present the game differently. So, I mean, I'm half kidding, but I think if you're going to... That gets at my problem I'm talking about. The problem is

that nobody knows who they are, and it's hard to market them. So at least this is a marketing idea. You know what I mean? I just think it's easier to market fewer names. Yes. Yes. Did you guys know yesterday was the sixth time

this postseason the starters failed to go one inning. I don't want that. Me either. I'm so glad because we're not often in agreement on this show that all of us are like get lost here because it's just I don't know. It's not a fun watch.

I understand analytically. The analytic part of my brain is like yeah, you know, it makes sense but I don't know. The analytic part of my brain is like, yeah, it makes sense. But I don't know. The fan in me is not into it. All right. So I'm going to put an informal poll up for people watching us live. We need a nickname for that group. The stream team is owned by NoDunk, so I can't call them the stream team.

But we'll come up with something. I'm just curious how much this bothers other people. Are we turning into the old shaking our fists at the cloud and saying, this is terrible. This isn't the way the game was growing up. I'm used to bad starting pitchers staying in the game longer than they should. Giving up 450 foot dingers to juiced up players.

I want that era back. I want that era back. I want 1999 baseball back. Like, okay. Like maybe, maybe, maybe we're a little wrong. I think there is probably some kind of happy medium here. Chris Taylor homered three times in this game. That's awesome. And Chris Taylor ended the post season in a slump,

obviously hit the walk-off in the wild card game against the Cardinals, basically put the offense on his shoulders. Now the Dodgers piled on more late. Chris Taylor is one of those guys. You can talk about him in the same sort of context as Eduardo Rodriguez, someone who's probably making himself a bit more money with what he has done on the big stage here in the postseason. He's laid the groundwork for this for a few years. It's not just like, here's this new guy that showed up. We know who Chris Taylor is. He's been a key, versatile piece of these Dodgers teams that have been in this spot time and time again.

But Chris Taylor, is he a long-term Dodger, or is he a guy that will end up going somewhere else and continuing to play every day in the sort of versatile role that we've grown accustomed to? What's your expectation for him, Britt? Gosh, I don't know. I could see it going either way. The Dodgers are in a really interesting spot organizationally

when you look at this winter and this offseason in terms of what they're going to do. I still think a priority for them is probably going to be seeing if they can retain Max Scherzer because he fit in so well. Also because nobody can say for certain that Trevor Bauer is going to be back and pitching anytime soon. But when you look at that core, there's no doubt that a lot of theseauer is going to be back and pitching anytime soon. But when you look at that core, there's no doubt that a lot of these guys are going to be gone. And I think with

Taylor, you look at the versatility, and that's attractive to a lot of teams now, especially because the way these rosters are set up, we don't have these like separate utility guys anymore, right? Like if you're a bench spot, or you're just a guy who can play multiple positions, anymore right like if you're a bench spot or you're just a guy who can play multiple positions Javi Baez is another great example he could go to the Mets or Yankees and play different positions and he could you know really be wanted by both of those guys so I think Taylor long term probably not going to to be a Dodger I think Clayton Kershaw also is probably going to be a guy who ends his career if he continues to pitch somewhere else. So it almost feels like when you watch the Stodgers scene, like this is the end of not an era, so to speak, because it's hard to say it was their era when they only won one World Series over that stretch.

But really like the end of this core group that's been slowly, you know, guys have slowly left, you know, core group that's been slowly, you know, guys have slowly left, you know, Kike Hernandez and John Peterson and, you know, other guys that have been part of their success are no longer there. But I think this is really the last stand for a lot of this current group. And it wouldn't surprise me at all if Chris Taylor ended up somewhere else. Given his skillset, given what teams kind of value nowadays, he has an awful lot of value. Yeah, I mean, Pollock could be gone. You know,

Kenley Jansen is a free agent, I believe. Yeah, Jansen's a free agent. Pollock does have one more year, so he's probably stuck there. Well, he has a team option, right? No, it's a player option. That's for 2023.

Ah, okay. But Corey Seager could be gone. Kershaw's a free agent. Yeah, I mean, you're right. This is a Dodgers team that frequently leads the league in payroll. They will replace. They will reload. They will keep trying to win.

I don't think we're going to turn the Dodgers into the Cubs. They have plenty of great long-term players under contract. They extended bets. They still have Bellinger the Cubs. They have plenty of great long-term players under contract. They extended Betts. They still have Bellinger for a while. They've got a court. Trey Turner's there for another year. Kershaw's staying. I think Kershaw's staying. Because there were some questions about him and they gave him three years

and $93 million. I think they're just like he's going to be a Dodger Hall of Famer and he's going to be a Dodger Hall of Famer, and he's going to be here until he's done. And we don't want him to end his career with a Rangers hat on. You don't want him to go home to Texas? He would still go in the Hall of Fame with a Dodgers hat.

Yeah. I mean, and to your point, Derek, what's unfortunate is that the Cubs get a free pass here. The Cubs shouldn't be doing what the Cubs are doing. There should be some teams that are never allowed to do these rebuilds or maybe retool, but these teams should not be allowed. A team like the Cubs should always be trying to win. And to the Dodgers' credit

actually, as they were rebuilding, they floated the team with a large payroll. So the Dodgers are a model, I think, even for the Yankees, for the Cubs, in terms of spend the money. Spend the money and try to be good every year.

And as your young guys hit and get better and stuff, you'll have times when you're in the World Series and you'll have times that you're a wild card. You know what I mean? But you'll pretty much be in the postseason every year if you just spend $250 million every year. If you spend it wisely, that's also the asterisk. I expect them to spend a fair amount.

The 22 estimate right now is 194. I could see them spending another $50 million, $60 million on top of that, which could get them two of those free agents back. They are going to be expensive free agents. Or it could get them a different reliever. Maybe they go get Kimbrel. That's an interesting question. Kimbrel

versus this version of Jansen. Who do you actually want if you have to... Kimbrel's one year. One year on Kimbrel, you feel a lot better about that. Anyway, I expect them to spend a little bit. I don't expect them to go fallow like the Cubs. That's just ridiculous. That might have something to do

with the Cubs' particular business situation right now. They've got the network they're trying to get off the ground and they claim they were hit harder by COVID than other teams possibly. Who knows? Yeah. That was a selective situation

where some teams were impacted more than others. No. Yeah. Weird COVID really hit bad, particularly in Wrigleyville. Like, no. Also, they just got all... They're going to get a ton of tax breaks

from Wrigley being a historical building. A ton of tax breaks. They already get a ton of tax breaks. But they're going to get even more from Wrigley being deemed as a historical building. I hope that we evolve to a place where the sport where tanking has some really serious consequences. I wonder, there's Doug Fearing who used to run the analytics department in Los Angeles. He wrote a piece about how Chris Taylor is worth a win or two above and beyond his actual production to a team just based on his versatility.

And I use that to try and look at Shohei Otani's value to a team, but it's slightly different. In any case, Taylor has been a better player than Hernandez since 2018. In terms of war, it's one win, but in terms of walk rate, better. Speed, better. Defense, Fangraph says worse, but what is your inclination? I would say Taylor's better. I would say he's at least comparable. If the metrics are a little lower on him,

I don't think it's a big gap at all. Fangraph's is minus 10 runs for Taylor and plus 13 for Enrique Hernandez, but that doesn't match my understanding. I mean, I'll concede Hernandez being the better defender, but that seems like a gap that's a little wider than it actually would be. The one place that might stop

suitors from spending too much money is that Chris Taylor's had a much larger BABIP to get a similar batting average and has a 28% strikeout rate since 2018 versus Enrique Hernandez's 19%. So, you know, teams I think are aware of the value of the strikeout rate since 2018 versus Enrique Hernandez's 19%. So, you know, teams, I think, are aware of the value of the strikeout.

And I think that Taylor will get something that's just very comparable to Enrique Hernandez's deal. So, obviously, a lot more to unpack in this series. I'll take an L, too. I think Britt took an L on just trying to predict day-to-day baseball, which is impossible. The core of my professional career, if I'm going to call it that, has been looking at the long view, looking at the full season, who's going to be good and who's not going to be good, who's going to

exceed expectations, who's going to underperform. Analyzing games on a day-to-day basis is a completely different animal. For people who do it well, tipping the cap to you without actually tipping the cap, literally that I'm wearing right now, because it's very difficult to do. I'm going to take an L on the pool situation though,

because I didn't think there was any chance. He'd still be on the roster for the Dodgers at this point in the season. Here he is starting at first base, hitting balls hard, at least making a contribution. Obviously the leadership and the way people respond to him in the clubhouse, that was a way that he's made an impact since day one getting there. But the part-time role he had throughout the regular season,

that went better than expected. I know he's not having a postseason that's off the charts good, but just having this future Hall of Famer, inner circle guy that is just your last guy on your bench in some ways, maybe he's the second-to- last guy technically because of the Turner injury and how that all plays out. Having that guy there actually does matter, and I was wrong about that. I scoffed at that.

I laughed at that even more than I laughed at Britt's prediction that the Cardinals were going to make the playoffs. So that's a big L for me. The funny thing was that the batter ball stat said he still had something left, but he says he's so slow. I was like, it's only doubles and homers. And then he slaps the opposite field single. Like, oh, yeah, what do you know?

We know nothing. They picked him up immediately, right? I mean, they were like, yeah, we want him on our team. Yeah. So kudos to the Dodgers for figuring that out. One thing that did occur to me watching this game was like, you remember Drew Smiley comes in and throws like seven fastballs and has really good success?

I think that Freed, I think these Dodgers game plan really, really well. And I know they do the same sort of stuff that the Giants do where they not only have, it's called like the eye pitch or something, which is just like a machine that can really try to emulate every single pitch type. And then they can really just be like, hey, let's go take swings against Max Freed for an hour before Max Freed steps on the mound, right? So they can do that and prepare. But I think that one thing that I would do if I was facing the Dodgers in the post season is just do the weirdest crap I could come up with.

Just be as weird as F impossible. And I've, I've heard a little bit about this from some players and I can't, I can't mention their names, but like some players have told me they put, they did away with catcher signs completely. Some players have told me in the postseason against certain teams, sometimes they'll do like glove signing. Sometimes the pitcher will call the pitch. I've had a pitcher tell me that he normally has a riding fastball, like a high riding fastball.

And he knew that a couple of players targeted the top half of the ball and had an adjustment on that. So he threw his four seam with less ride on purpose. Like he dinged his spin efficiency on purpose to throw a flatter four seam and got ground balls off his four seam, uh, knowing that these pitch and, and, and like the pitcher pointed out some at bats. And I looked and I was like, holy crap. I didn't even talk to the player, but they did it against me. He's like, oh, man. I knew he did that. If I was going to face the Dodgers, I'd be like,

well, I normally have a riding foreseam. Here comes the sinker. Woo! You guys didn't think about the sinker, did you? I never throw my change-up to righties. Here comes the change-up to righties. There's a bunch of change-ups to righties. I have a curveball and slider. Whyer, did you? I never throw my change-up to righties. Here comes a change-up to righties. There's a bunch of change-ups to righties. I have a curveball and a slider.

Why would I do that? I never throw the curveball. Maybe not just never. Maybe it's like, I rarely do this. Just do anything. Almost have a random number generator in your head. Just be like, whatever. Yeah, I keep thinking.

If you ever play poker with someone who has no idea what they're doing, I'm not a good poker player. I've said that before. You can lose to those guys. You can lose to the worst players. They hold the weirdest things, and then the river comes, and you're like, how did, why did... It's because their play is so bad, it's unpredictable. There's a certain amount of chaos that comes from not doing the thing you're expected to do that gives you a little bit of leverage. So I can kind of see this being something that you could do.

I think it's tricky, though. Breen was like throwing... Sorry, yeah. Let's say you get too cute with this. You start messing with the grips. You're trying to adjust the seam shifted wake on your pitches. And you're just missing spots badly. And you go, hey, I'm going to throw this crappy flat four seamer.

Oh, I didn't command it as well because I don't throw that pitch very often. I just gave up a three-run bomb because I thought I could get a little edge by just gripping the ball differently. Like there's definitely a slippery slope there. That's something that Logan Webb said was, was a big deal for him was actually realizing that, you know,

there are that he could actually just have a sort of a generic game plan for almost every batter. And that if he executed that he would do well and it wouldn't matter necessarily what the batter strengths were um and there are pictures who are like you just need to execute you need to execute your strengths then it matters a little bit less what the batter strengths are that's kind of i feel like what a lot of guys are like my best against your best if you beat me beat me right like i remember when i covered kevin gossman in baltimore one start he just changed his delivery he woke up told us after the game i just woke up and decided to change my delivery and you're like what how hammered that right that's it didn't go well and so like we used to

call him like he was always tinkering right like the king of tinker fell like that was kevin gossman and you look at what he's done in san francisco and he has confidence now like this is it this is him you're gonna beat him or not beat him and so i think that it kind of depends on the guy a little bit some guys are more apt to be a chameleon and they can't adapt max scherzer can just invent pitches and work around injuries and be fine and a lot of guys or maybe some guys just just simply can't they need to know that if they get beat it's because they got beat by their best stuff on their best day yeah i there's just like i know that pitchers have like i i've uh i've talked to pitchers where like they'll talk about like you know oh i'm doing this now but you know i'm gonna see all these guys again for like this long ass season. So you'll probably see, like I've heard,

I've talked to a pitcher being like, what happened to the curve ball? And they're like, ah, you know, I'm just into the slider right now, but you it's a long season. You're going to see the curve ball come back. So I think that there's some, to some extent, pitchers think of like, what am I going to do in September when I see the Dodgers for the fifth time? You know what I mean? Like there's trying to get through the order today,

but then are there any tricks left in the bag for October or for September? And I just wonder if the teams could help them with that. It'd be like, we're going to game plan this way for most of the year, but we've got a version of you that you can break out here and there. You can break out against the Nationals in August, a game where you just randomly throw 80% curveballs. Just try it out against the Nationals in August, a game where you just randomly throw 80% curveballs. Just try it out against the Nationals, and hopefully the Dodgers aren't watching that day. You know what I mean? But that's why also teams sent out advanced scouts for all of September to kind of try and catch this sort of stuff

and try to see if people are changing or, or, you know, changing their tendencies off of the, the full season long scouting report. But I don't know because for me, Max Freed was like a tick and a half above. I don't think the command was that terrible. And I thought he looked like a good pitcher. The Dodgers still scored on him.

Yeah. They weren't whiffing on the curve ball. I mean, that's, that's relatively speaking the four-seamer especially was getting hit. He had one whiff on 17 swings with that pitch. Not that he piles up a ton of

whiffs with the four-seamer ordinarily anyway. That's him being a tick above usual. He maxed out at 97 with sitting 95. I thought the V-load was good. The questions really are now about the weekend. I hinted at this.

It seems like just because of the pitching matchups, the Dodgers should be favorites in both of the remaining two games, even though they have to win them both to win the series. They go Scherzer in six. They go Buehler in seven. It's going to be Ian Anderson in six and then Charlie Morton in seven. So thinking about those matchups. Hey, we thought Buehler- Morton was like really a Dodgers landslide

the first time it happened, and it sort of turned out differently than we expected. Well, I didn't, but yes. Is anyone joining me on the Dodgers are still going to win this series bandwagon? Oh, I'm super nervous. I'm nervous, but I still think the Braves can do it. Again, we're making the same mistake we've made a hundred times.

We're looking at the matchup and we're like, oh, look at how this favors the Dodgers. Who is to say? Who is to say? No one. We have no idea. Does anyone feel comfortable that Max Scherzer is a Walker Buehler? No, not really.

It's the same level on the Braves side. I don't know. I have no idea. Yeah. Admit it. We have no idea. I said Braves and Astros. You did.

Okay. So I feel good about the Astros pick. I think they can win one of the next two. Yeah. I think that's going to be... I don't feel so good about the Braves. I don't know. They got Soler back. I don't feel so good about the Braves. I don't know.

They got Soler back. They got Soler back. Here's the thing. They're a home underdog. Not big underdogs. They're a home underdog at each of these last two games. Can they win? Of course they could win.

They could win in game six. They could win in game seven. Totally logical, plausible outcomes. That Dodgers team, they're like a cockroach they never go away they just they keep finding a way to get it done even when you think they're finally about to get eliminated my dad bless his heart has been uh betting uh for most of his life uh adult life and um his uh main method oh I'm like blowing up his method. If he's listening, sorry, dad. But his main method has mostly been in college football, which I think is a different animal than baseball.

But in college football, home underdogs, that's his big deal. He loves home underdogs. And I can see in college football, the crowd, the, you know, the refs maybe get a little swayed by the crowd. The crowd is like juicing up the players. Football is a sport where if you get more amped, I think there's a direct line towards probably better play. Whereas getting more amped in baseball,

I don't know if that makes you necessarily better. Maybe it makes the pitcher a little bit better, but sometimes they just lose their command. I don't know if that's a thing, but home underdog and slight home underdog uh and two and slight home underdog in two games you're giving them two chances i mean the overall series odds still point towards the braves right yeah oh uh let me let me you have to win one, and the other team has to win two. Yeah, I still like the Braves. They're going home.

They know this happened last year. Everyone's now already talking about last year, right? As soon as they lose last night, everyone's talking about last year. The scarier part to me, like the Dodgers, at some point the Dodgers' arms have to be tired, right? Like they used a lot of pitchers again last night, and I know they have the day off today, but at some point what what's scarier to me isn't that they won yesterday's game is that the offense has kind of come alive a little bit because

if they had squeaked out a five to four win it would have been like cool like golf claps for you or four to three but that kind of win yesterday was like a confidence boosting drudging right like a good old- fashioned blowout game. And some of the guys haven't been hitting like Trey Turner. You know, we talked about Taylor and then he had pool hosts. Their bottom of the lineup was hitting. So I don't really like that if you're a Braves fan and I'm not, but I think the Braves are going to win this series.

And I think you look at that and you're like, okay, really? We're going to get beat by these guys. And that's what made yesterday's loss kind of so like wow i'm a little nervous here i still think atlanta gets it done but there are some warning signs that like as you said derrick their cockroach you kind of awoke the sleeping giant here a little bit last night you pushed them pushed them pushed them backs against the wall and now they're roaring back to some extent here's some numbers real quick from BetMGM. I've got numbers from Fangraphs.

So BetMGM has the Braves at minus 200 to win one of the last two games, to win the series. I know I should know what that means. They don't have a percent. That doesn't convert to a percentage. We can convert that to a percentage. Dodgers are plus 165 to come back and win. And then on the

other side, Astros are minus 500.. Dodgers are plus 165 to come back and win. And then on the other side, Astros are minus 500. Red Sox are plus 375. So pretty big difference in how the books see those two series and the likelihood of a comeback for those two teams. Zips has Astros

73% to Red Sox 27%. And Braves 69% to Dod Red Sox, 27% and brave 69%. Nice to Dodgers 31. Um, and, uh, the,

uh, the overall ones are similar, but this is interesting. Zips has, um, Max Scherzer is a 58%, uh, uh,

uh, favorite and Walker Bueller is a 54% favorite, but it's the whole idea of you have to win like yes the dodgers are favorite in both but the braves just have to win one yeah winning two is quite a bit harder than winning one mathematically speaking in games that are reasonably close but so the odds for zips is braves winning six is 42 braves winning seven is 27%. Dodgers winning seven is 31%. So if they get to game seven, it flips to the Dodgers.

Right. Totally makes sense based on the pitching matchup. Because then they've got to win one, and they've got the better of the two starting pitchers. Just slightly better. And we've seen it play the other way. So it's interesting. Just based on those projections,

it sounds like there's actually some value on the Red Sox at plus 375 because they don't seem to be as much of a dog as the money would lead you to. I mean, they're in the same position as the Braves, right? Except they have to do it on the road. Yeah, I don't. I just we can switch to that series. I don't I don't see the path for Boston like that doesn't mean it's not going to happen. I'm having a hard time seeing how they're going to pull it off. I think Luis Garcia, definitely a wild card just because of that knee injury. How far does he go? He seems like he's been on

fumes at times down the stretch too, so there's just an overall form question. As great as he was in the regular season, which version of him are they getting? I was asking the same question about Frambois going into Game 5. Frambois came out and shoved. So it's possible that Garcia comes out and goes five or six and pitches really well.

That's obviously possible. But how do you see this going down? If this is somehow going to turn into a Red Sox winning twice on the road in Houston, what has to transpire for that to even play out that way? What do you think, Britt? Well, I don't think the red sox are gonna win but i think you know being in boston watching them win that first game all i mean if i had asked you guys after that i think we were all in on like the astros being dead right so um really if boston's gonna win uh they're going to need to continue to put up the ridiculous numbers that they've had.

I mean, as of, I think it was yesterday when I was writing, they had 22 home runs. The next closest team was at 12 this postseason. That's incredible in a very small sample size to be that far ahead of the next team. So they're going to have to put up these big crooked numbers. And obviously, they need to win both of these games in Houston. I don't think it's impossible by any means, because as much as the Franber Valdez outing was exciting and it was, they don't have Lance McCullers back yet.

I think they're in better shape if they advance to the world series, but the same problems that have plagued the Astros during this series are going to show their head at some point, especially if they don't win the first game tonight, right? If it comes down to a seven, dice roll. Anything can happen. As we know, ball goes through someone's legs, a big home run. So I think there's a path for Boston to do this, but they have to come out swinging and they have to put a crooked number up early, really take the Houston crowd out of it, force Houston to kind of throw in their B relievers, which aren't very good, and really just kind of wave the white flag on a six. That, to me, is how the Red Sox make a play at this. Yeah.

Yeah. I mean, it's totally plausible to see the Red Sox winning these games if you consider how we last saw the two starters for the Astros pitch, right? The last two times out, Luis Garcia and Jose Urquidy did not look good. But one thing that I know that is strange and I can't explain is that Luis Garcia has home away stuff splits. So you expect his stuff to be the same home and away, but this year he has very distinct home and away stuff splits. And as far as I can tell, it's not atmospheric. It's not like Houston is on the moon or something. It's not like Houston is Colorado.

So maybe it's a slight humidity thing or something, but his stuff has been way better at home. So you get Luis Garcia at home, he shoves. Then if Rikidi is hurt, if that was part of what happened in the first one, in a game seven, I don't think they allow him to give up two or three runs. I think he's out in the first if he starts giving up runs. So that might change things because if you know, if Luis Garcia, I guess they would have to have lost the Luis Garcia game to even get there,

but they're going to empty the bullpen in that one, and Javier is going to pitch in the first if there's any sign of issue. And so I still think the Astros are going to win this one, but it's going to be a squeaker. I mean, even if they win with Garcia in game six, like I'm sure it'll be somewhat close. It's not like he has, you know, Berlander stuff at home and, you know, Lizardo stuff on the road.

Are we expecting Javier to be held back until game seven since he last pitched on, it was Tuesday, the 19th. So he threw 57 pitches that day. So he's not coming into tonight's game, right? He's game seven right? He's, he's game seven only for Houston. I think they want to play it as straight up as possible. They want Luis Garcia to go five, you know,

they want Stanek and Presley to go two or three, you know, like to get combined, go three, right? Maybe if you do that, if you do that, you just have to fudge one inning.

Yeah. And you can just do that based on matchups. You can find your way through it. I don't know. It should be fun. I agree with the idea that it has to be early. The Red Sox offense has to get on the board quickly to put that pressure on Houston to get into those

softer relievers, to force those tough decisions sooner rather than later. Do you want to use your A relievers or your B relievers? That's the whole thing about scoring first is you kind of force the other team to possibly use their B relievers if there's another game. There's going to be a temptation to keep your A

relievers as fresh as possible for seven in case you want to push those guys two innings instead of one. In case it turns into a bullpen game, yeah. Right, because that could definitely happen. Evaldi, a big question here. We really don't know what the impact is of pitching on your throw day

coming back. We saw the impact for Scherzer and Urias. Right. Pretty easily. In the numbers, in the velocity. It's totally there, but how much of that could also be previous usage on top of the throw day, right? Was that the first time Evaldi was used out of the throw day, right? Like, I think... Wasn't Evaldi...

Oh, is that the first time Evaldi was used out of the pen this postseason? I thought it was, and I will verify that while we're talking, just to be sure. I believe so. Okay. But, sure, but, like, they've done it in postseasons past. I do think it's maybe a fatigue factor for these guys.

I don't know. Also, like, if you get to a seven, do you bring sale back for like his throw day? Probably. Yeah. Because he looked so good for a good chunk of that game. And then like he said, he had one inning where he sucked,

which is true. Yeah. Just throw a nice seven for one inning, get some lefties out. Although, whoops, lefties, because he wasn't getting Jordan over on two out.

No, it's not for two out. Jordan Alvarez. But yes. Brain tumor. It's fine. When you said Jordan, I don't know many Jordans. And then I threw an O on it, which I do sometimes.

Why do I do that? It's because I loved Jordan and Turo so much. Huh. So seven. It gets interesting if Houston doesn't win tonight. That's for sure. The last time Houston went home for a 3-2 best of seven, they lost the World Series in 19.

It's possible. Oh, yeah. It's definitely possible. And, yeah, Evaldi did not pitch in relief prior to game four. I swear I saw him with warm-up for a game or something. But maybe I'm... Mike Petriello had a good point about these postseasons are so long now. And they're only going to get longer if they expand the postseason. a good point about like these post seasons are so long now, you know,

and they're only going to get longer if they expand the post season. But like these postings are so long now that, you know, have we like as a sport really changed the, like we've only asked more of our pitchers in the post season and the post season has only gotten longer. Like, you know,

it used to be, you jumped right into the CS. Yeah. There was a time where you jumped right into the World Series. Yeah, you got to take it down at 154, in my opinion, if you're going to expand anything else. I think that's a great idea. Thank you.

Take it back down. I don't know if they're ever really going to go for that, though. If they're getting more money from the for that, though. Like, I just hope they do. If they're getting more money from the playoffs, though, I think they will. And the players would have to get insurance that, like, pay doesn't go down because it's 154 versus 162, you know? Well, how much percent are we talking here? They could split whatever percent it is. They each go down 1% or something like that.

But the playoffs equals it all out because they make money for each round they get to. And when you get to the World Series, you're talking about a whole other year of salary. But not every player, only playoffs, right? Although with expanded playoffs, you've got half the teams. With expanded players, yes.

And now the extra incentive is to make that money back in the playoffs. Which if you get to the World Series, those guys are making an extra 500 grand. Yeah. That works. Predictions for games 6 and or 7 on the ALCS side? Are you both

sticking with Houston now that they've got that 3-2 lead? Yeah, I think I'm going to stick with Houston. Watch Luis Garcia do the salsa dance. Over tonight or over tomorrow? It wouldn't surprise me if this goes to 7, but I want Houston to Watch Luis Garcia do the salsa dance. Over tonight or over tomorrow? Over tonight. It wouldn't surprise me if this goes to seven,

but yeah, I want Houston to finish him. Finish him. A little Mortal Kombat reference as we go out on this Friday. I am very nervous about my Boston pick. I thought they had to go back to Houston up 3-2 if they were going to win the series. I'll stick with the Red Sox because I'm just going to stick to my original prediction.

Not going to waffle. That's Eno's job. So I'll stick to pancakes or whatever the similar but slightly different thing is. I've got all four teams. You're going to be right regardless of what happens. But thanks, everyone, for watching throughout the week. We, of course, are back here at 11.30 a.m. Eastern on Monday. We'll recap all the happenings from this weekend.

And if you want to read along over the course of the weekend, you can do that with a subscription to The Athletic. Get 33% off at theathletic.com slash ratesandbarrels. On Twitter, she is at Britt underscore Doroli. He is at Eno Saris. I am at Derek Van Ryper. And as always, you can drop us a line via email, ratesandbarrels at Britt underscore DeRulli. He is at Eno Saris. I am at Derek Van Ryper. And as always, you can drop us a line via email, ratesandbarrels

at theathletic.com. Enjoy the games this weekend. Rates and Barrels returns on Monday. Thanks for listening. ... ... ... ...