Rates & Barrels - Christian Encarnacion-Strand’s Playing Time and Alex Kirilloff’s Fantasy Value

Episode Date: July 21, 2023

DVR and Al assess the fantasy value of several prospects who were promoted in the past week, including Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Endy Rodríguez and Cade Marlowe. They also look into the types of leagues where Alex Kirilloff and Oswald Peraza should be added, determine which pitchers are worth streaming in the coming week and highlight relievers who could become closers after the trade deadline. Rundown 0:51 This week’s big fantasy news stories 20:50 Hitters of note 32:06 Starting pitchers to consider, including streamers and two-start pitchers 44:33 Closer corner Follow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiper Follow Al on Twitter: @almelchiorBB e-mail: [e-mail] Subscribe to The Athletic at $2/month for the first year: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels Subscribe to the Rates & Barrels YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/c/RatesBarrels Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This episode is brought to you by Peloton. Forget the pressure to be crushing your workout on day one. Just start moving with the Peloton Bike, Bike Plus, Tread, Row, Guide, or App. There are thousands of classes and over 50 Peloton instructors ready to support you from the beginning. Remember, doing something is everything. Rent the Peloton Bike or Bike Plus today at onepeloton.ca slash bike slash rentals. All access memberships separate. Terms apply. Welcome to Rates and Barrels. It's Friday, July 21st. Derek Van Ryper, Al Melchior, here on this Friday, getting ready for the weekend,

discussing some of the biggest fantasy news stories of the week, looking at possible two-start pitchers, streamers, and time permitting. Today, we're going to take a look at a few bullpens, as teams might be trading their closers and moving saves to someone else in their bullpen. This is the right time to start speculating in those bullpens if you're looking for some saves for the final two months of the season because you're not holding a player for an excessive period of time hoping that the opportunity comes around. Al, we begin today with the news of the week. Of course, it was heavily discussed earlier in the week on the show. Christian Encarnacion-Strand is now a part of the Reds

active roster, and seeing how they're using him, really kind of working in tandem with Joey Votto between first base and DH, letting everybody else shuffle around defensively, it looks like there's a good share of playing time here for CES to begin his big league career, but is it enough to trust him in shallow and medium-sized leagues? There's, to me, pretty clearly a lot of power, a possible impact bat that's also going to hit for a high average in this Reds lineup, plenty of run production opportunities, but will the playing time be there enough, And will he hit quickly enough to make an impact in smaller leagues? Yeah, I think that those questions are related,

obviously, because if he does get off to a good start, then I think he merits more playing time. But he would need to do that because the Reds have a totally stacked lineup now. They've got a lot of moving pieces. So he could sit once or twice a week if he struggles. And they have every reason to be going for the division title. It's very much within reach. They were in the lead for a while. So to get to the bigger question here, I do think that he should be rostered everywhere. Just by looking at what he did in the minor leagues, I think the possibility is that he does hit well enough to play, if not every day, very, very close to every day and be an impact bat for fantasy. So the Reds are an interesting team. The Reds are an interesting team.

This is not really all that fantasy relevant, but they've really constructed an ideal offense because they could rest a different player pretty much every day of the week, move people around, and nobody is necessarily really hurt that badly. I guess we do bring it back to fantasy, hurt that badly from a fantasy perspective. Right. If it's everybody getting the occasional day off. I mean, if Jonathan India doesn't play, Matt McClain moves over to second base, from a fancy perspective. Right. If it's everybody getting the occasional day off, I mean, if Jonathan India doesn't play,

Matt McLean moves over to second base, Ellie De La Cruz slides over to play short. Spencer Steer comes in from left field. He plays third. Will Benson plays in the outfield. It's like the guys that are maybe at the bottom of that chain are probably CES, Benson, and maybe there's a third player.

Maybe Votto's sort of part of that where he's not an everyday guy, but I think they're going to use Votto pretty much the way they always have, just rotating between first base and DH a bit more. They have enough versatility on the roster to get away with moving players around. I think Encarnacion Strand will hit enough to make an impact, at least down to 12-team leagues right away. I know some of the 10-team leagues out there are smaller active rosters too. So maybe he's on the outside looking in, in those formats. It really probably depends on who you actually have on the roster.

If you want to take those chances, the park also helps that power play up. He doesn't need it. He has incredible raw power. This would be a player we'd be excited about even if great American ballpark wasn't the home park. Now, the Pirates made a few promotions recently, and it covers a lot. We've got Andy Rodriguez getting a look behind the plate, so we'll start with him. We're going to get the three Pirates in this segment. Andy Rodriguez had an injury earlier in the year at AAA, got off to a bit of a slow start, really started to put the pieces together prior to this promotion.

I just find it interesting that he is getting chances to catch right now, right out of the shoot, whereas Henry Davis has not been catching at all. There could be some long-term implications there, but a similar question to what I just asked you with Encarnacion Strand, do you think Rodriguez will play enough and do enough damage with his bat right away to break in. At least in two catcher leagues, it seems like a certainty. But where do you think Andy Rodriguez is going to fit in if we're kind of thinking about catcher rankings? He's had to do this exercise a couple of times already this season.

Yeah. Yeah, and that's a little bit of a different story than Encarnacion Strand because I do think that he could conceivably be rostered everywhere. I get your argument that he doesn't necessarily have to be rostered in 10-team leagues, but I wouldn't argue against it either. Whereas I don't really see the place for Andy Rodriguez in one-catcher leagues, unless it's maybe a 20-team league, something like that. And even then, I'm not so sure. I think he's kind of a mid-to-lower-end number two catcher for fantasy purposes, because I don't know that the power will be there. Obviously, the team context is not ideal either. I do think he'll get plenty of playing time. He could even play maybe that we get enough help in enough categories from him for,

for him to matter outside of a two catcher league. So I would, I would probably put him in the neighborhood of like 20th among catchers. Yeah, probably not that far off of a rank like that, but I do think that there's some speed with Andy Rodriguez rare at the catcher position. So that gives him a faster track to crack the top 12.

So if you're in a 12-team league with one catcher, if the playing time is there, I could see it. But immediately, I'm not sure it's there. The strikeouts have been an issue very early on. He's played three games at the time of this recording. I think he's got nine plate appearances. He's struck out seven times. As long as the Pirates aren't quick to send him back down, keep an eye on transactions over the weekend just to be sure if you are going to pick him up. I think you do want to take a chance at just about any two-catcher league, though. I mean,

a 10-team league with two catchers, that gets you to the back of the top 20. There's probably more power here than what we saw at AAA. I think the injury sapped some of that. If you go back to what he was doing last season, he was age appropriate for high A, tore up that level, 16 home runs in 88 games, popped eight more with the promotion to AA Altoona last summer. So you had a 24 homer guy that gets on base a lot, doesn't strike out a ton. There are a lot of ways for Andy Rodriguez to make value. So I think the ceiling is pretty good. And the floor that we immediately have is also really strong here. He's a nice all-around player. Could play spots other than catcher, too, depending on how the Pirates want to make everything fit together around their lineup. more of an NL-only league sort of player. Maybe there's some keeper in Dynasty League appeal.

Do you think there's anything that Piguero is going to offer in even like a 15-team mixed league in the short term? Because he's basically skipping over AAA. He's played seven games at that level, most extensively has played at AA last season and this season. I think it's 190 combined games at that level, so not much left for him to prove, especially given the improvement he showed at that level this year. But if Piguero struggles, I think there's a pretty easy case for sending him back to AAA for a little

while, given the number of infielders the Pirates have been looking at. Yeah, that's the thing I worry about too, DVR. They've got so much depth, especially when, when everybody is healthy.

A lot of, you know, a lot of people who can, can play those middle infield positions. So I think you're pretty much on target with him being an NL-only player. I did include him in the column this week, the waiver column, and just recommended a minimal bid for him in 15-team leagues because I think he could help with stolen bases. a minimal bid for him in 15-team leagues because I think he could help with stolen bases. And the thing is, you know,

with the rule changes in the current environment, you could say that about a lot of people. It seems like every week it's like, oh, these two or three people who just got called up, maybe they could help with stolen bases. So it doesn't necessarily make Piguero stand out that much. But I think at least in the short term, there's playing time there.

Maybe he helps with batting average and OBP, but you mentioned the improvement this year, but that was a second go around to AA. So I think, like you said, essentially skipping AAA, I'd be pretty surprised if those gains held up at the major league level. So I think it's pretty much stolen base help and otherwise, yeah, minor league filler.

The third Pirate to debut, what Piguero debuted last year, but the third one to get promoted this week was Quinn Priester. His prospect luster has faded slightly from where it was a year or so ago, but he's still an interesting prospect. We're always looking for pitching.

The Pirates maybe are taking the Mitch Keller approach here, giving him a chance to let him learn a little bit more on the job. I think it was an oblique injury that cost Quinn Priester some time at AA last year that kept the innings count down. He pitched in the Fall League. He's missing a good number of bats. Now in the debuts, 5-3 innings, 2Ks,

all sorts of traffic runs, all sorts of problems that first time out. If Priester stays on schedule, he's a two-star pitcher during the upcoming week at San Diego and home against the Phillies. Not an easy combination for a pitcher getting the second and third starts of his big league career. You look at the arsenal, it was a sinker, change-up, slider, curveball, and four-seamer mix. A lot of sinkers and change-ups, the slider and curveball, two pretty useful breaking pitches, used less than both of those.

So I'm curious to see where this arsenal actually goes as Priester spends more time in the big leagues because I would imagine we're going to see more breaking pitches than we saw in the debut, at least if he's going to be successful. I think one or both of those pitches have to be used more often than they were used the first time out. Yeah, no, I think that is the thing to watch with Priester.

And he did get a lot of ground balls in that debut still, but a lot of them went for base hits, gave up a couple of homers on secondary pitches. So that'll be crucial to see not only how he uses those pitches, but how effective they are.

But, you know, I think that the floor is probably, and this is not anything that's going to be exciting, I think DVR especially to you, but, you know, I imagine him as like sort of an Adrian Hauser type that could, you know, get some quality starts just by virtue of keeping the ball in the park. He's not a super contact-inducing pitcher, but get enough contact to just kind of keep the line moving and get some innings. But I don't know that the upside is going to be that great, like I said, unless maybe some of those secondary pitches become quality pitches. Yeah, the intriguing thing is that Eno's pitching model likes the slider the most of Priester's pitches. The intriguing thing is that Eno's pitching model likes the slider the most of Priester's pitches. That's why it was weird that he didn't use it more.

We'll see if that changes strategy-wise. Sometimes you see guys come out, they debut, they throw whatever fastball they like the most. They throw that as their most frequently used pitch, and then they move off of that as they get more comfortable at the big league level. But I think for now, Priester's a matchup- starter for me, mostly in deeper leagues. Keeper of Dynasty,

I think he might be a little underrated right now because the Pirates have a clear need in that rotation. He might get an opportunity to really audition for the job throughout the second half of the season and could open 2024 as one of their regular members of that starting five. That would not be surprising given the pedigree and given that he does have some interesting raw stuff to work with. The most unusual story of the week, Jared Kelnick goes on the IL with a fractured foot. He kicked a cooler.

It opened up an opportunity for Cade Marleau, who's a kind of interesting player, old for the level in the minor leagues, but has a pretty nice mix of power and speed. It's just a big question as to whether or not the hit tool is going to be good enough for him to contribute with those offerings. So I'm curious if you have any interest in Cade Marlowe beyond that of AL only leagues. Well, a little bit. And again, depends how we talk about this. So we talk about your Maki league, you know, usually most weeks. I put in a bid for him in Maki,

but it was a contingency bid. Wound up with Jason Hayward instead, but would have been happy to have Marleau because as you said, there's the speed power combination. The minor league stats look really great. It's just a question of how that's all going to translate as a 26-year-old

playing his first games at the major league level. But the thing is, he should get a lot of playing time. The one thing that maybe derails that is if the Mariners go out and trade for an outfielder, which is conceivable. That probably depends a lot on what happens in the next few days. And they can string together some wins. But at least I figure short term next week or two,

you should get some playing time and maybe you pick up a few steals and, you know, maybe there's some other production along the way. Man, it's interesting, too, that they went with Cade Marleau over Taylor Trammell. Trammell's healthy, playing really well at AAA. We've seen him get a few opportunities for the Mariners. I wonder if this is an indication that, you know, Trammell maybe is someone that gets included in a trade that happens at the deadline. The Mariners, you know Jerry DiPoto is going to do something, whether it's buying and selling or just choosing one of those directions. He's going to be active at the trade deadline.

And for now, Marleau is the guy getting that opportunity. I do think those deeper keeper leagues like Maki, he makes sense there as well, but playing time could still fluctuate a little bit depending on what else happens on this roster and how much they want to play someone like Dylan Moore. I mean, they may play Marleau against righties and Moore against lefties. It could just be a simple platoon, and then you're kind of limited to the big side platoon opportunities. That would make Marleau more schedule dependent in the short term if that's how the Mariners opt to play it. We did see Grayson Rodriguez come back to the big leagues recently.

He's not 100% rostered yet, but do you think based on the talent and the success he was having at AAA and given the ongoing need for pitching in most leagues, do you think Grayson Rodriguez deserves that? He's going to get a look again on Saturday, that big series between the Orioles and Rays. So it's a pretty good test for him this weekend against one of the league's better offenses, even though the Rays in July have not been like the Rays of April and May, especially. What are your overall thoughts on Grayson Rodriguez in the 25% of leagues or so where he's still available?

Well, I think that he should probably be rostered a little bit more broadly just because of that upside because of the the the performance that he had a triple a that maybe does this time around translate uh for the orioles but i yeah i think he's kind of got to prove it the next few starts for him to be a must add in 10 team leagues for those those shallower leagues. But yeah, I think this will be an interesting test. It is too bad that the Rays have been not just not the Rays of the first half in the month of July, but the Rays have actually been one of the worst teams offensively in the major leagues. So it's kind of hard to know what to make of whatever results that Rodriguez has.

But yeah, I would think barring a disastrous start that he needs to be added in a lot of leagues where he's currently available. A lot of AL East teams on the schedule. If Rodriguez stays in the rotation, he will miss the early week series at Philadelphia, but he would catch the Yankees at home next week, Friday. If the schedule were to hold beyond that, it looks like you'd have a road start against the Jays. So if you're kind of schedule-watching beyond this turn this weekend, it's not easy because there's a possibility Aaron Judge is back in the equation for the Yankees by this time next week. But that's the AL East for you.

It's always going to be tough, even with the schedule being a little more balanced this year. I don't know if there's anything actionable about this, but I felt like it was worth mentioning. Andrew Painter received a recommendation to undergo Tommy John surgery. I've not seen confirmation that he will have it, but I think this was at least a second opinion now that he's received. So there's a very good chance we won't see Andrew Painter pitching in games again until 2025. So just a big blow for the Phillies, for Painter himself,

and of course anybody who's hoping to have him around at the end of the season. Cedric Mullins went on the IL with an adductor strain. I think this is an injury that really kind of stabilizes the playing time for Aaron Hicks, right? Because things were getting a little more crowded with the somewhat recent promotion of Colton Couser. Now it kind of seems like Hicks gets another runway to hold on to that roster spot. Yeah, it certainly stabilizes playing time for Hicks gets another runway to hold onto that roster spot. Yeah, it certainly stabilizes playing time for Hicks. I don't know how much, and I don't know if there's a way to kind of rotate players that it would open up more opportunities for Ryan Mountcastle.

I also just don't know if that's what the Orioles want to do with him at this stage, but something else to maybe pay attention to, but definitely makes Hicks relevant again, I think, in 15-team leagues. Yeah, as a frequent Ryan Mountcastle skeptic, I'm just left shrugging my shoulders. I think he's good. I think they like him, but at the same time, I don't know. He seems like he's losing a little bit now that things are getting

a little more crowded on that depth chart in Baltimore. I thought it might be someone else, but Ryan O'Hearn has come through. Ryan O'Hearn is one of those guys. I don't think we talked about him a whole lot on this show this season. He gets cleaned up when he plays and he's basically a big side platoon guy for them at first base. Yeah. And he's been available in virtually all my leagues. I think he is on the waiver in Maki still. And I picked him up in some 15 teamers within the last two, three weeks. I think I overbid in both cases. So I don't know if it's just people are skeptical

either of the performance or the playing time, but yeah, he's still playing regularly and in a great lineup. Yeah, a lot to like if he's going to hold on to that role. I just am so skeptical based on what he was doing for a few years as kind of a big side platoon extra guy in Kansas City. A few other news items to get to. Starling Marte went on the IEL with migraines.

That came along with a Tommy Pham exit due to some groin tightness. That Pham injury might not be serious. I haven't seen any follow-ups on that yet. Could be in the lineup here on Friday afternoon. He is optimistic. Pham's optimistic that he won't need a trip to the IL, but players are usually optimistic about things like that with these seemingly minor injuries. So something to keep an eye on there. Shane Bieber hit the IL earlier this week with right elbow inflammation. We know that the Guardians have plenty of pitching depth, Al. This is a concern

for Bieber, though, beyond these next couple of weeks because his strikeout rate was already down. There were whispers the Guardians might be willing to trade him given all the young pitching they have. For now, it looks like Peyton Battenfield is more stable in that rotation we've seen them rotate other young starters of course but now it looks like you've got some combination of Savali Battenfield Gavin Williams Tanner Bybee and Logan Allen as that core five so long as Bieber's on the shelf yeah and it certainly stabilizes the position for Logan Allen who spent a little time back at AAA came up up for Cal Quantrill. But so, yeah, with Bieber out, I don't think you have to worry about Allen being sent down anytime soon.

And I think that's definitely the more actionable thing as opposed to Battenfield. I think Allen is it's understandable. He was very high on the most drop list right before and certainly right after he got demoted. But I think it's time to pick Logan Allen back up again in 12-teamers. Yep, I'm right there with you. I think the stuff is good enough. It can pay off in a big way here in the second half of the season, plus the possibility of trades at the deadline. He might just be up for good this time around.

This one doesn't have a lot of immediately actionable information either, unless you're in a keeper or dynasty league and are thinking about possibly adding Logan Ohapi via trade. Logan Ohapi, who suffered a torn labrum in his non-throwing shoulder, could actually return before the end of this season. For me, it's just really good news in a long-term league. If you're thinking about getting him as kind of a secondary piece in a trade right now, I imagine he's going to have something closer to a normal offseason. That was not certain a few weeks ago, just given the nature of that surgery and how long it can

take to come back from a torn labrum. So really good news for Logan Ohapi and the Angels as we may see him again at some point this season. You've always wanted to be part of something bigger than yourself. You live for experience and lead by example. You want the most out of life and realize what you're looking for is already in you. This is for you. The Canadian Armed Forces. A message from the Government of Canada. Try Tim's new Sweet Chili Chicken loaded wraps and bowls today.

Take your taste buds on an exciting new adventure for lunch or dinner with our delicious new Sweet Chili Sauce. It's time for Sweet Chili Chicken. It's time for Tim's. At participating restaurants in Canada for a limited time. Let's talk about a few other notable hitters, though, for this weekend. If you're in a more shallow league, there are a few twins out there. You wrote about them in the waiver column this week. Alex Kirilov, a DVR favorite.

I think he actually has a case for some more shallow league usage. I think there's a really nice ceiling here. For me, Kirilov's the kind of player that, over the long has a chance of full seasons with a sub 20% K rate, a double digit barrel rate. So you're talking about a good average, pretty big game power, like 25-ish home run power, I think is what Alex Kirilov can bring to the table and a spot in the heart of that Twins lineup, which should give him good run production as well. Is this the time that it's finally happening for Alex Kirilov? I hesitate to say that and really put a lot of confidence in that DVR because it seems like we've had this conversation a lot of times

the last couple of years. I'm not sure, especially I did feature him in the column and partly because he's a really short-term hot hand play. I mean, he's hit a few home runs in the past week. And before that, he was hitting well, but it was more singles and doubles. So I'm not really sure. I think 25 is kind of the right target

in terms of what to expect over a prorated full season for Kirilov. But in any given week, in any given month, you can get the version who's more of a single-s sitter or somebody who's going to go on a power binge. So I don't know if it's really all happening on a, you know, kind of like he's fixed it long term kind of basis. But I think that there is enough there for him to merit a spot in 12 team leagues. And the key thing is one of the things that you pointed out, that he hits right in the heart of the Twins order. So you figure at worst, he's somebody who's going to hit for average. He's going to get on base at a reasonable pace so that he'll be able

to drive in and score some runs and help you there. And sometimes those players have the sneakiest value because you're looking for the big power stats or the big steals totals. But somebody maybe who in the long and short of it has kind of mid-range power, but is hitting right in the middle of the order can be a good run producer. Yeah, and the Twins have a guy at the top of the order right now, Edward Julian, who's really put the pieces together in recent weeks. He has been on fire. You go back, look at his last 21 days, hitting.474 with a.524 OBP and a.947 slugging percentage. Five homers during that span.

He's even chipped in with a stolen base. I liked Julian a little bit at the beginning of the season. I thought he would be able to just offer something as a super sub for the Twins. It's starting to happen a little later than I expected. I think he's made a pretty strong case in recent weeks to be rostered in the shallowest of leagues as well. Yeah, and I agree.

I think the biggest question there is the playing time. And certainly, if he can keep this going, there's no way that the Twins can sit him very often. I was also surprised, too, DVR, in researching Julian for the column, that for whatever reason, I didn't perceive that he was hitting for as much power earlier in the season as he was. So now, of course, he's just getting on base, period, with the power. But he has really been hitting for power pretty much all along.

It's just there have been a lot of strikeouts there up until recently. So if this could be a real change, kind of like with Anthony Volpe, where long-term the strikeout rate can be in the 20s instead of the 30s, that's a player who should at least be playing every day. Yeah, I mean, he's walking enough to sustain that spot high in the Twins order. The hurdle for playing time is that they like to play Donovan Solano against lefties, so Julian's losing time as part of the platoon right

now. That'd be the thing that holds him back from the shallowest of leagues, but talent-wise, I think there's a really nice ceiling, and I think it may not be long before we see Edward Julian jump into more of those shallow formats. Matt Walner, also in Minnesota, getting an opportunity, at least as a short-term power fill-in. He started three consecutive games to close out that Seattle series. There's been a lot of swing and miss in his profile, I think just about everywhere he's played. But when he connects, he hits the ball very hard. Is Matt Walner still limited mostly to AL only and deeper keeper formats at this point? I think so.

I mean, yeah, there are some interesting skills there. You mentioned the power. That's certainly tantalizing. But with the Twins, I mean, you mentioned before Donovan Solano. I brought up the fact that Julian, I'm not sure I can count on everyday play from him. I mean, they've got sort of like we were talking about with the Reds. I mean, they've got a very crowded, very sort of versatile roster. And you've got Solano playing time.

You've got Willie Castro, who somehow always manages to find playing time. Michael Taylor at times has gotten a lot of run in center field. So I just don't know where Wallner fits into that really crowded picture. I'm with you there. I think the thing that's really interesting with Wallner, though, is that we did see last season, he got the bump to AAA, got the K rate under 30% for the first time since, geez, 2019, I think was the last time he'd done that at a level. He has shown some improvement again at the big league level this year down at 21.1 but it's only 38 plate appearances so i don't want to say that the swing and miss issues have been cured

what's interesting is that he doesn't chase a lot of pitches outside the zone 27.7 percent oh swing early on this year he was under 30 last year this could be a guy that makes good enough swing decisions to maintain some improvement even if we're not buying him as a low 20% K rate sort of guy. Not necessarily a long-term Patrick Wisdom sort of outcome. Maybe something a little bit better for Walner. But the Twins' depth could make things a bit more complicated for his playing time. So I've been kind of holding back and pushing him onto my 15-team league rosters to this point. Maybe there's a similar approach to be taken with Trey cabbage in Anaheim

because Joe Adele had the opportunity to help fill in with Mike trout on the IL. Unfortunately, Joe Adele suffered an oblique strain and now it's Trey cabbage, at least getting an opportunity against some righties. And he's shown some power in the minor leagues. So what's your interest level in Cabbage this weekend? A little higher than for Walner just because for the time being,

I do trust the playing time a little bit more for Cabbage. And I think I'm remembering this correctly, that I think that at the time that he was called up, he had led all the minors in home runs or at least AAA. So, yeah, there's definitely some power there. He's getting an opportunity now, and probably for a while, because I don't think Adele is going to be back until mid-August at the earliest. And there should be an opportunity for him to play for the next few

weeks at least. Yeah, Trout's still a little ways away, too. The really surprising thing with Cabbage is when you look at him this year, he is running a ton. He's 24 for 26 as a base dealer at AAA as well. Unlike Walner, I think there's been fewer indications that his swing and miss problems are going to possibly improve. We'll see what happens, though, as he gets this opportunity. I agree with you on the floor. I think the playing time floor is actually more stable right now for Trey Cabbage. A couple of Yankees, Oswald Peraza and Oswaldo Cabrera, both seeing an uptick in playing time. Josh Donaldson is down with an injury that could end his season.

It's another calf issue for Donaldson. So I'm curious, when you look at Peraza, I know Eno's not really an Oswald Peraza believer Volpe's the shortstop for the foreseeable future so Peraza for me kind of fits more into the super sub at least infield super sub sort of mold do you see enough in the bat to be excited about Peraza beyond deep leagues I do and I think I've maybe been a little guilty of sleeping on him because of him coming up a few times and not really coming close to replicating the minor league numbers at the major league level. So,

uh, he's leading off right now, which I understand it's a lineup that's not really producing, but, uh, the, the Yankees, even without Aaron judge and hopefully soon with Aaron judge,

uh, have the potential to, uh, to be a much more productive offense and to be at the head of that certainly counts for something. There's some speed there, but it's just like a lot of people just kind of waiting for him to show more signs of it on a consistent level when he's up with the Yankees. Yeah, and as far as Cabrera goes, we're seeing him get some opportunities in the corner outfield spots again. He has started three of the last four

games entering play on Friday. The one he sat was the one where they faced the lefty on Tuesday against the Angels, so it could be a big side platoon opportunity for him again. I think I'm holding back because the underlying numbers for Oswaldo Cabrera were not as good as I'd hoped. The barrel rate actually has slipped from last season. He looks like he's kind of an okay fourth outfielder who maybe because of the park can play up as something more, but I just don't know if there's as much ceiling there as I'd previously hoped. I think I was hoping for more based on what he did during his time at AAA last year. Eight homers, 10 steals in just 47 games. I thought we were going to get something a little closer to that on a prorated level.

Doesn't mean he's a bad player. It just means he's more of like a 15-15 sort of guy in a full season with everyday playing time, and he might not get that with the Yankees. Almost seems like a guy that needs to be traded to a bad team in order to get that opportunity. Yankees fans are like, maybe we are a bad team right now. You're disappointing relative to your own lofty expectations. You're not bad. I've seen a lot of bad baseball.

That's not bad. That's just kind of average, unfortunately, for you. I did see Luis Camposano got a mention in the column, so it wasn't me necessarily putting on the rundown entirely on my own. But how do you see the Padres splitting time behind the plate between Camposano and Gary Sanchez well the very very early indication is that it'll be more Sanchez than the Camposano and the fact that they sent down Austin Nola to me suggests that they're really confident with Gary Sanchez in that job it does seem like Sanchez should be DH-ing more. I'm sort of surprised that he's not.

But Camposano came in on Thursday, relieving Matt Carpenter in the DH slot, had Tameza come in, a lefty. And so Aaron Boone made that switch. And maybe that's indicative that maybe Camposano gets some run at DH against lefty starters. And, you know, in addition to maybe catching a couple of times a week. And I'm sorry, I said Aaron Boone, wrong team. Obviously, we're on the Padres now.

But yeah, I don't have the highest expectations for the playing time. I'm thinking maybe 50% to 67% of games, which again, for a catcher, is not bad. But I think that's contingent upon him getting some time at DH. Yeah, I think that would be the way it has to play out if the playing time is going to come through that way. Let's talk about a few pitchers. Why do I like Chase Silseth? Why can't I just let him go like most people do? I think I see Chase Silseth and I see a guy who's had a lot of success up to like double A and he's making some changes to that pitch mix. We saw a big strikeout performance against that watered down Yankees lineup earlier this week. 10Ks over five and two

thirds and they won earned run. They walked a couple batters. The Angels are always looking for someone in the back of that rotation. They often use six starters, so there's plenty of room there. So those are the reasons why I like him. Is there enough there to go ahead and take a chance, at least in 14, 15 team leagues, given what we saw earlier this week, and that there was a different pitch mix in his return to the big leagues. Well, I made that very argument in a column that went up the day before the Angels called them back up to make that spot start. So, but I was thinking a little further ahead if the Angels trade Shoei Otani, I thought

that Sil Seth was going to be the likely replacement. So there's a lot to like in terms of what he's done in the minor leagues. And it's the same story that's come up a few times already on this episode, that he's come up and not always replicated what he's done in the minor leagues or even come close to it. But I think there will be an opportunity there. In fact, even if they keep Otani, I think there's an opportunity there for Silseth, like you said, as a sixth starter for them.

And he's not had that much exposure to the major leagues. So I still hold a hope that he's somebody who's young and experienced enough to put it together. Yeah, he really bumped up that slider usage and more sinkers than four-seamers. So just a totally different look from Silseth now compared to what we saw earlier this year. I think part of what got me into is I saw him in short relief once this year. I think he was touching like 98 out of the bullpen.

So that got me pretty excited about him too. I know you pick up a few ticks in that role compared to working as a starter, but I just thought this is a really good life arm. The Angels have to find a way to utilize Silseth somehow, and it looks like they're doing that here as we get closer to the deadline. I have some Brandon Fott fatigue, but I was starting to think, with Zach Davies going on the I.L. with that back injury, maybe we're going to see Brandon Fott again soon.

He easily leads the league in podcast mentions this season. I think Brandon Fott's actually becoming like the new Mitch Keller on the show, where everyone wants to know, like, why isn't he getting better results? And when can I trust him? And how should I use him? And what league should I roster him in? Same questions all the time with Brandon Fott. So I haven't even seen any sort of indication yet from the Diamondbacks that they intend to bring him back up, but he turned in yet another quality start. I don't know if it was a six inning start. It was a high quality in terms of just overall performance at Reno last time out. And I just keep thinking there's really nothing left for him to prove at the AAA level.

The problem he keeps running into is that every single game matters for the Diamondbacks, and he just hasn't had enough success at the big league level for them to fully trust him yet. It's only been six starts, Al. level for them to fully trust him yet. It's only been six starts, Al. So will we see Brandon Fott again in the near future, given the need for a starter in that Arizona rotation? I just assumed he'd be back up once we knew about the Davies injury, but I've only seen him mentioned as a potential candidate to come up and that in the same breath with and you know previously when he's come up he's really struggled so i don't know how much to read into that but uh i would expect i just don't know where else the diamondbacks are going to turn other than via trade but um yeah i would

expect that we'll we'll see fought up in the short term and yeah i think we've all got brandon fought fatigue at this point especially those of us who have had him rostered. Okay. This is the time that not only he's going to be up, but he's going to provide what we're looking for. So I think he'll come up in terms of results. Your, your guess is as good as mine.

I'll happily get burned again once he gets the opportunity. So I'll be one of the first folks in line. I'll be up there with Welsh. We'll be, we sleeping outside overnight, waiting for the opportunity to get just roasted by another disappointing Brandon Fott start. Best Western made booking our family beach vacation a breeze. And it felt a little like... life's a trip make the most of it at best western let's get to a few two-star pitchers for the upcoming week i was focusing mostly on guys that are available in 12 team to a few two-start pitchers for the upcoming week. I was focusing mostly on guys

that are available in 12-team leagues. A few of these guys are available in deeper formats as well. Your results could be highly variable depending on how aggressive people are in your league. I'm curious what you're doing with Graham Ashcraft, another silver medalist perhaps in the frequently mentioned pitchers on this podcast. Seems

to be turning things around in recent weeks. Has a couple of road starts, one against the Brewers, one against the Dodgers. If you can split them, if you don't have to use both, I think you can use the Milwaukee one and safely avoid Ashcraft against the Dodgers. But I think we're at the point in the season now, Al, where if you're struggling

in ERA and WIP potentially, you can take on more risk. You can play the bulk game a little more easily, try to make up ground in wins and Ks and just hope that maybe you get lucky. Maybe you get five or six innings each of those starts that aren't actually that bad from a runs and whip perspective as well. So are you starting to believe in Ashcraft a bit more

given some of the recent success? I am. I am. I've been really encouraged by how well he's pitched since coming back up for the Reds. And now to say that I'd be happy to start against the Dodgers, that's another thing. And if I could split those starts, I would. And for the scenario that you described, I think that you take your lumps and you hope that maybe he comes out of that Dodgers start, you know, well enough that you get some help with strikeouts. Maybe you get a win.

But in a scenario in some leagues where I have Ashcraft, where it's a points league, a head-to-head points league, and everything can help you and everything can hurt you in that head-to-head matchup, I'm probably going to roll with Ashcraft. Again, not because I have tons of confidence that he's going to do really well against the Dodgers, but it's bleak out there for two-star pitchers this coming week. So unless I'm looking at my roster up and down, I'm seeing like, okay, I feel really confident in my one-star guys and I don't need to take a chance and pile on a second start from a pitcher.

I'm probably going to take that risk with Ashcraft. I think the frustrating thing with Ashcraft has been even when he's pitched well, it's been four consecutive starts where he's gone at least six innings and given up two or fewer earned runs. He's had a combined 14 strikeouts over those four starts, which is really weird. I mean, he's got good stuff by eye test, by model. The swinging strike rate's not atrocious. It's also not that high either. He's at 8.9% now for his career, and he's approaching 200 innings. But it kind of reminds me of early career Nathan Evaldi. You'd watch Evaldi. He'd touch triple digits.

You'd say, why does this guy have a 6.5K per nine? What's going on with Evaldi? Why doesn't he miss more bats? I think there's a little bit of that with Graham Ashcraft. Yeah, that's an interesting comp, but it definitely works. And yeah, I don't know. I don't know. We all had the highest of hopes heading to the season that the strikeouts would come for him, and they did briefly.

But again, as long as he's getting the results, as long as he's getting the ground balls, especially in his home park, I'm fine with rolling in him even in 12-team leagues. I need five other two-start pitchers that are somewhat widely available. Ryan Nelson is home against the Cardinals and Mariners. Peyton Battenfield, mentioned earlier, is home against the Royals

and on the road against the White Sox, leading into the trade deadline. That could be pretty nice. You got Ross Stripling, Road Tigers, home Red Sox, Trevor Williams, home Rockies, Road Mets, and Michael Grove,

two at home against the Jays and the Reds. I think I have them kind of ranked the way I just laid them out. That's the order in which I prefer them. If they're all available,

I trust Ryan Nelson the most because just before the Mets destroyed him in that start before the All-Star break, Nelson reeled off a five-start stretch with a 3-10 ERA, a 1-14 whip, a 27-7 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 29 innings. Nelson was someone that I liked quite a bit as a very late-round pitcher to target coming into this season.

So I had some pre-existing love for Ryan Nelson that was only rekindled by this little stretch prior to the break. So how would you stack this group up? Is there anyone that you actually like as just more than a two-start streamer, someone that actually could stick on the roster beyond this upcoming week? The answer to that question is no. Like I said, I'm finding it pretty bleak out there in terms of the two-start options, even just to stream for the week. Uh, we've talked about Ryan Nelson on a few episodes before.

I think you like him a lot more than I do. I look at that recent stretch where he, he put a few good starts together and I didn't see what was backing it up. That looks sustainable to me. So, uh, that, that,

uh, two-step with, with Nelson, it's not, you know, it's not the toughest matchups, but they're not the worst either. You, but they're not the easiest either. So not really interested in him.

I'd say out of this group, the ones that I probably like the best are Battenfield because I think he's probably good enough to handle those matchups. We play this game every week about kind of where you draw the line with a Royals matchup or an A's matchup. And I think you include the White Sox in there. And I think Battenfield, you know, crosses that line for me. And I almost included Michael Grove in the column this week. But I really, you know, versus Toronto versus Cincinnati, those are pretty tough matchups. And I just wish that he had a little bit more swing and miss. He's obviously got a shot at wins pitching for the Dodgers, but there just wasn't anything there that really stood out for me. So I think I would go Battenfield first, then Grove, then I suppose Stripling just on the basis of having a Tigers matchup. You'd think Trevor Williams with the Rockies at home would be good in an outing at Citi Field. But again, I looked and looked and looked for things in Trevor Williams' profile to

encourage me and could not find it. So I think maybe him. And then I'm going to flip this upside down and put Ryan Nelson at the bottom. Oh, wow. So we're way far apart on Ryan Nelson at this point. So if you have Ryan Nelson and you're in a league with me, you should probably just try and trade him to me now because I still see a little something

there that I actually like. The streaming considerations with OneStar, this group's a little better for 12-team leagues at least. Alex Wood gets the A's, which is kind of one of the few situations in which I would actually feel good about using Alex Wood at this point. Griffin Canning on the road against the Tigers, like that matchup. I actually like Griffin Canning more than most people as well, so I'm just tipping my

hand all at once here. Drew Smiley gets a road start against the Cardinals, and then we've got a couple of Mets with pretty good spots. Jose Quintana, who you wrote about in the column this week, goes on the road to face the Yankees, And Carlos Carrasco has a home start that he's lined up for against the Nationals. So across the board, I think the skills are a notch higher with most of this group. If you had to pick two that you really like, who would they be? I'm glad that you've asked me to pick two because there's really only two that I like for this week, and they're Canning and Wood. Kitana's sort of borderline, but as I wrote in the column, I would be fine with picking him up this week. But I think I would do a wait and see against the Yankees, and he's got a two-step the following week.

If he looked decent against the Yankees, I'd feel pretty good about him for the following two-start week. I know we mentioned Quinn Priester up top. I mean, just thinking about him compared to these streamers and these two-start pitchers, is Priester on the radar over any of those guys for you? Let's see. So he's, yeah, at San Diego. They're tough matchups.

Really tough matchups. So that said, since I'm so down on most of these guys, I probably over Ryan Nelson, I guess, will start at the bottom here. Probably a no, right? It's pretty much of a push, I think, for me, because I just hate those matchups. I just wanted to sort of put it into context for anybody

thinking about Priester and trying to decide if he's actually even usable. I think he's more of an add and wait a week if you want to see what he does in those two starts. I'm not sure I'd be excited about throwing him out there based on how that debut went down. Let's talk about the bullpens and focus on some of the bullpens where a closer could be traded between now and the trade deadline, about 10 days from now. I need five teams, and there are probably others, but five that have pretty clear sources of saves with high probabilities of trade. My group included the Pirates, the Mets, the Nats, the Royals, and the Padres.

And even the Padres, you kind of look at that team and you're like, are they really going to sell? I mean, Josh Hader, trading Josh Hader is not necessarily waving the white flag on the season, it's just sort of accepting that there's a good chance you're going to miss the playoffs because you've got a 25%

chance of making it as things stand today per fan graphs and you might as well get something back for the long haul. Maybe someone that can help you right away in 2024 because their window shouldn't slam shut. So the hater trade thing is pretty tricky. Let's start in San Diego. If they were to make that trade,

who do you like the most of those Padres relievers as a possible replacement to rack up a lot of saves? Well, Robert Suarez just came back. So I think he's, I don't know. I think he'd be my primary target. I mean, maybe it's too soon after him coming back. But I mean, I look at the others there and I don't really see Nick Martinez as a closer. I like Steven Wilson. Maybe he'd get a shot. And again, maybe it's a situation where they'd be spreading the wealth with the saves and would sort of be a detriment to everybody

from a fantasy perspective. But yeah, I think Suarez would be my top target there. Yeah, I think the same thing in XFL, which is a monthly supplemental league. We don't have weekly pickups. Robert Suarez was someone that we wanted to pick up before he came off the IL because of the possibility that he could emerge to be that guy if all this plays out. the Padres a little further in one direction or the other, given that they've kind of put themselves in this position to see exactly where things stand before they have to choose a lane at the end of the month. The Royals situation, you know, we saw Aroldis Chapman get flipped to Texas already. My assumption has been Scott Barlow is next. This is one of those teams that's just bad, so you're not necessarily getting a ton of safe opportunities,

but is there anybody good enough to emerge as the sole closer and replacement? I've talked a lot on this show about how much I like Carlos Hernandez. They've used him as an opener. I think his stuff is electric. I think if I were another team, I'd be trying to trade for Carlos Hernandez and seeing if he could actually start. Just getting him outside of Kansas City might be a good thing but I think Hernandez is the overall skills play for me even though it's hard hard hard to know if he's actually going to get a chance to close yeah um I agree with you

I think that Hernandez is is definitely the the best option that they have um actually kind of surprised he doesn't have more holds. And again, some of that might be because he's opened a few times. But yeah, I think it's one of those situations that I would, again, if they do trade Barlow, I would probably avoid it. But I think Hernandez, if I were going to target somebody, it would be Hernandez. Yeah, if you made me pick a second name, I don't think I'm rostering him anywhere. Jose Cuas, I think he's got decent stuff. Could actually take a step forward.

Ratio has been pretty bad. ERA is under four for his career, but lots of traffic. A 161 career whip so far. Pretty big fastball slider combo, though, that he brings to the table. Even though it's not a high velo slider slider it's one that actually grades out pretty well so maybe someone that could up that slider usage and have a bit more success if they want to keep using him in leverage situations the gnats have come up on this show a bunch of times hunter harvey has been pretty rosterable in deeper leagues even with kyle finnegan still there in some of the leagues where harvey is still

available is this the last opportunity to get him before he possibly takes over that bullpen completely? Well, I was going to say, he's still out. And I don't know how long he's going to be out. So for now, you've got Finnegan there. I would think Finnegan would be a trade chip for them. And then if he's gone and Harvey is still out, I don't know. I mean, I was looking at Amos Willingham fairly recently, and maybe he'd be a candidate. Mason Thompson's kind of interesting, but doesn't really profile as a closer.

So I hate to keep repeating this, but I think even more so than the other situations we've talked about, I think this is one I would definitely be avoiding. Yeah, it's a little more of a watch list situation with Harvey at this point, because I have not seen the results of the MRI that he had when he went on the IL earlier this week. But I think by skills, he's the guy that's most interesting if he is in fact healthy post-trade deadline. How about those Mets? They've been trying to keep it afloat in that bullpen without Edwin Diaz all season. I would have to think there are plenty of teams interested in the veterans like Adam Adovino and David Robertson. The main sources of saves could all be gone for the Mets. Is there someone that you could see them holding onto that you'd like to emerge as

the two-month replacement for Diaz as things clear out? Well, you know, Eno had mentioned on the show, I think it was last week, he was just sort of speculating, saying, Brooks rarely, you know, maybe he could close. And I think from a skills perspective, he'd be good at it. He picked up the occasional save with Tampa Bay, but it's a bullpen that has just got him and David Peterson right now as lefties. And I always thought that Drew Smith was kind of the closer in waiting there. So that's the guy I'd be targeting. Yeah, Smith is intriguing for sure. And I think because he's under control a little longer,

there's a much better chance that he's still on the roster after the deadline. Results just have not lined up to the quality of his stuff so far. We saw much better results in 2021 and 2022, but this time of year for a team that does trade the veterans away, these are the sorts of guys that emerge to actually have some value. If they were to even give him a dozen save chances or even eight or 10, that might be enough for him to be a pretty impactful pickup if things break the right way earlier in the week we talked about the pirates darryl moretta has the weirdest pitch

in baseball as some call it it's a highly unusual slider it has that arm side movement to the right side we've seen a good k rate this year there is a little bit of a walks issue we're talking about 11.4 so far but the ratios are good. The strikeouts have been there. I guess the question is, is it realistic to think that David Bednar could be on the move? He's not a pending free agent like Josh Hader, so there's no urgency to do this. We're talking about a guy who's not going to be a free agent until after the 2026 season. But if you're the Pirates and you get a really intriguing offer for David Bednar, you have to at least think about it, don't you? I think that they do.

And I had been sort of assuming that they wouldn't trade Bednar for exactly the reason that you were saying DVR. But with all these promotions that they've had lately, I don't know if it's that they think because the NL Central is so bad that the Pirates still have a shot or that they're auditioning for next year and they think they've got a shot in 2024. They probably should think that they have a shot in 2024. But that is, yes, Bednar a part of that team? Or if they get a really nice offer, do they get some prospects who maybe could actually push them into real contention a year or two from now? So I guess it wouldn't be that surprising if they did trade Bednar. And then I think it's really tough in terms of – I think Moretta probably should be the closer. Holderman's been good too. And I made the bad joke with Eno last week that it's wrong to make Holderman a closer with that name. But he could be.

But I think Moretta's the target here. Yeah, I think that's where I'd go too if I was trying to stash someone in that Pittsburgh bullpen. I think this is a lower probability trade situation, but I wouldn't rule it out completely just given the potential windfall the Pirates could get. Bednar's great. So if you can turn him into maybe two, three long-term pieces,

I think you strongly have to consider doing that. Anybody else as far as non-contending teams? The Red Sox, I feel like, are close enough in the wildcard race where you don't assume Kenley Jansen's on the move. They could tank in the next 10 days and change their fortunes by doing that. Or maybe the Yankees could fall further, and perhaps someone like a clay holmes could become available or something but do you see any other teams

jettisoning a closer and opening up an opportunity uh well i the red sox are interesting but it's a situation like the mets where i think if jansen goes it's hard to imagine that martin wouldn't go too and then then who have you got? Because it would be interesting if they made Nick Pavetta a closer after now turning him into this bulk reliever extraordinaire. So yeah, that's a situation where if they do trade away relievers, I'm not sure I like any of the remaining candidates. Also, too, it's one of these situations where you never know

who a team is going to get back. Because a lot of times they get. Also, too, it's one of these situations where you never know who a team is going to get back because a lot of times they get back the player that then they can use to plug a hole from a player they're trading away. So Yankees, yeah, the Yankees would have, I don't see them trading Clay Holmes, but they did, they've got some interesting options there, but also I don't necessarily see

the Yankees settling on just one closer right away either. Yeah, they could keep that as a committee. That's always the problem that you worry about is that no one emerges to run with the job. It's two or three candidates rotating that spot as a team tries to identify someone for maybe the future. Finding someone for 2024 might be a bigger priority than locking in one closer for the rest of 2023. But we are going to go on our way out the door. A reminder, you can get a subscription to The Athletic for $2 a month for the first year at theathletic.com slash ratesandbarrels. With that, you can check out Al's weekly waiver column that is up for this week.

I saw Keith Law dropped an in-season prospect list update, so he's got a new top 60 out there. You'd have access to that. Plus everything that, you know, rights, everything for all sports. You get the women's world cup happening right now as well. So lots of great coverage from around the globe. We are going to go though. Have a great weekend.

We're back with you on Monday. Thank you.