Rates & Barrels - Closer Potpourri with Greg Jewett

Episode Date: March 3, 2023

Greg Jewett joins Al to discuss his general approach to drafting relievers this season and to discuss likely opening day closers who could lose their jobs and relievers who could emerge from committees to become primary closers. Rundown 1:45 How is Greg approaching getting saves in his drafts this year? 7:25 ADP conundrums: Félix Bautista, Clay Holmes, Jason Adam 18:00 Closers who are potentially at risk of losing their job during the season: Daniel Bard, José Leclerc, Alex Lange, Carlos Estévez 25:40 What should we look for from relievers in spring training? 27:59 Can anyone emerge as a primary closer from these committees: Dodgers, Angels, Phillies, Twins, Cubs, Marlins, Diamondbacks? Follow Greg on Twitter: @gjewett9 Follow Al on Twitter: @almelchiorBB e-mail: [e-mail] Subscribe to The Athletic at $2/month for the first year: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels Subscribe to the Rates & Barrels YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/c/RatesBarrels Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Whoa, what are you listening to this for? Wait, who's talking? You know you're driving a 2024 Ford Escape with available Alexa built-in, so you can change the music. Oh yeah. Alexa, change station to 99.2. See? Purchase a 2024 Escape ST-Line all-wheel drive with Tech Pack at 3.49% APR for 72 months with down payment. That's just $267 bi-weekly. Cash value of $40,294. Plus, eligible Ford owners get a $1,000 bonus. For details, visit your local Ford store or Ford.ca.

Hello, everybody. Happy Friday to you. This is Rates and Barrels. I'm Alan Melchior and I am not here with Eno Saris today. Eno's off the show just for today. So with me is Greg Jewett, writes about bullpens for the athletic, for the athletic fantasy. And Greg, you and I, we've been talking we've been talking bullpens for for many years now going back to well gosh now I'm blanking on the name of the the the website which one fan rag or fan rag thank you yeah off to a roaring start here couldn't

even remember the site that that we both wrote for so yeah, Greg is an authority on the topic. Really, really excited to dig into these early spring training bullpen statuses with you here. So before we get into all that, just a reminder to everybody that yes, in fact, the draft kit, the Fancy Baseball Draft Kit is up, has been up for a while on The Athletic. And if you want to access that with a great deal, just go to theathletic.com slash rates and barrels. And it's $2 a month for the first year. And that gets you not only just the draft kit, but of course, everything that comes with The Athletic. So get prepared for those drafts and get a good deal while you're at it.

So, all right, Greg, I've got a few closer related topics for us to dig into here. So let's start general and talk about how you're approaching saves this year. Is this something that generally changes from year to year for you? I mean, the player pool does change from year to year. Do you find that your approach has shifted this year at all?

Not too much. I don't think I am going to overpay. However, as our notes will get to, there is a little bit of a cutoff. And then from that point forward, you just kind of got to pick your marks. In a standard 12-team league, you know, you're going to need a few more, especially if there's free agency pickups in season. But, you know, it's just kind of, you just kind of get a number. I'm thinking like in a 12-team, I'm thinking 70 or more saves. So if I draft at least what i think is going to give me that then i can

i can adjust in season but you know everyone knows that the landscape is changing as more and more teams move to the the matchup based approach and high leverage where it's going to be who's coming up in the batting order not necessarily i have one guy for the ninth inning. So as baseball shifts, we have to adjust how we approach saves as a category. But every room is different, and you should have an idea of your league, and then you just have to note. You just don't want to be caught on the wrong end when the closer run does happen. Right, right, because obviously the deeper the league, you can move that target for saves downward.

But in terms of numbers of relievers that you're rostering, or at least being able to start in a given week, to hit that number, I would think you would need three. Or do you plan on going with more relievers? I vacillate between two or three. Again, it depends on the depth of the league and what the matchups are. If I have a starting pitcher going to cores, I'd rather probably have a middle reliever with good matchups, just manage my ratios, get some strikeouts and hope he gets a vulture win as opposed to taking a potential pounding if that happens in a tough matchup. How early is too early to get your RP1?

Starting with last year, I i mean i saw a real shift in this with people pursuing hater and hendrix really early on and i understand definitely understood the the thinking behind it i mean there was a big gap between those two and everybody else uh at least in terms of projections not of course in terms of how it actually wound up last year uh but this year i'm seeing the same thing and uh yeah now it's ds and closet exactly so are are you in on that or uh is part of your approach to to wait and get somebody the next year maybe even the tier after that you know i mean for me personally i'm not scared to find saves however that's a strength of mine and it's a part of my fantasy niche. But

for those people that don't want to be chasing saves on the waiver wire, then yeah, you get your lockdown guy early and then you can take the best reliever available as the draft progresses. That gives you a little more pliability in the middle rounds where if you see somebody dropping or a guy that you like as your second closer or second reliever with a primary save share, you can jump in and get them. But, you know, as all these things shift, all those things change. It's just, you know, even the Mets have said that Diaz sometimes will pitch the eighth inning, which he did in the second half last year

when they were chasing Atlanta in the standings. So if the best pocket of hitters from Atlanta is coming up in the second half last year when they were chasing Atlanta in the standings. So if the best pocket of hitters from Atlanta is coming up in the eighth inning, they're going to put Diaz in there and then Robertson or Adovino worked a knife. I mean, it's just, you know, more and more teams are employing that highest leverage reliever train of thought

where my best guy's going in against their best part of the lineup. It doesn't matter if it's the seventh, eighth, or ninth. So just one more question in terms of pursuing that first reliever. How deep do you see that first tier being? I shouldn't really use the word tier here. I mean, in terms of how deep do you go, or maybe the way to phrase this, Greg, is at what point do you feel like you've kind of missed the boat on a true RP1? Where do you see that cutoff where, you know, I'm just going to throw an arbitrary name out there, not trying to make it a leading question or anything. But let's say, you know, once Jordan Romano comes off the board, are there still relievers where you say, yeah, I can wait on this.

There's, you know, two, three, four pitchers out there that would fill that role ably for me. Yeah, I think the cutoff is one of the guys we're going to talk about in a moment, so I don't want to give it away. But yeah, I think there's about seven to eight that I'm comfortable getting as my, what I call the primary save share, the guy that I'm hoping is going to give me 30 saves

or 27 to 30 plus and then again i i can figure out the rest now again if i'm talking about 70 if i've got 30 for one place now i don't have to scramble as much i don't think anybody needs to double tap in the early closer market because then you're then you're leaving yourself chasing at bats or chasing innings. And that, you know, you can't put out one fire and then create two more. Um, so I, I suggest you get yourself an anchor. That's a guy that you're confident in. That's going to be, you know, the majority share of his teams save options. And then you, then you, then you focus and build from that point forward. All right. Well, that makes me feel good because that's been my approach for a while.

And yeah, it's not always clear if that's, that's the best approach, but I definitely agree with your, your way of thinking on that. So, all right, well,

you, you led me into the next section there, Greg, which I appreciate. So I just want to talk about, well, three relievers in particular who I've been a little bit um sort of unsure about when's the right time to you know put them in the queue or move them up the queue and

so there there's i'm not sure there's two that you could have been one of two that you could have referred to felix batista or uh clay holmes so which was the one that you saw as kind of like the end of the RP1s? For me, it'd be Felix just because he has a bit more strikeout upside. You look at him at the, once he kind of got the job, he took it and ran with it. And again, there was always command concerns about him coming up from the minors. I mean, I had him in an early article on The Athletic, and I'm just lucky that all of the, it was like a perfect storm. But when you looked at him, he was seventh among all qualified relievers and fourth in the American League with 13 saves in the second half. And he didn't pitch like the last week of the season or so when the knee problem started to present itself.

He was one of 10 relievers with at least 88 strikeouts, which is one of the things I'm referencing is, you know, you do want strikeouts if you're getting a good closer. And he finished 15th in K minus BB percentage at 25.7. And he had a whip of 0.93. So, I mean, those are all things I like to see. I want a guy with swing and miss capability. I want a guy that limits traffic on the bases and somebody that can get a strikeout in those big moments. His 15 saves led all rookie relievers. And then, you know, he had a stretch where he recorded 13 in a row. I mean, he's not perfect, but I just look at from July 28th to September 22nd, he had a 32 to 7K to BB. I mean, that's pretty good. So those are the things I'm hoping for, and then that's where, you know,

I like Clay Holmes. He's going to be in a similar boat as Diaz. So, like, if the Blue Jays have Vlad Jr. and Bo Bichette coming up in the eighth inning, that's where Holmes is going to be because they want him to match up with those right-handed bats, especially elite ones. You know, his struggles are tied into command issues once in a while. And also sometimes left-handed heavy lineup pockets give him a little bit of a problem. So the Yankees will manage and keep him in advantageous matchups.

But that being said, you have to plan on once in a while, he won't get that save chance when you want it there. Yeah. But, you know, if that's happening with edwin diaz nobody probably is really safe from being used that way it's just yeah part of uh dealing with fantasy relievers in 2023 and so that yeah the reason that i've lumped them together in this the section that i've just you know uh just called adp canon drums drums sort of arbitrarily, is because I worry, I'm probably going to miss out on Bautista because I'm still just a little bit worried about the knee issue with him and also dealing with some right shoulder soreness this spring.

On the other hand, Clay Holmes on the ADPs on Fantasy Pros, which are, you know, an amalgamation of i think it's six different sites and their adps he's 12th and if i recall right and please greg correct me if i'm getting this wrong or if you remember differently i think holmes was number one in fantasy value roto fantasy value before he got hurt last year i mean he, he was just lights out. Well, he had that, yeah, he had that lights out scoreless stretch. So that fueled a lot of it. When I'm assessing Holmes, I try to expand because he was so good in that segment at the beginning of the season. And then at the end, when he was injured, his numbers kind of skewed in the other direction. So it's really hard to get a feel. But I went through all of his 87 games with the Yankees.

In that time, he does have a 0.949 whip with a 20.7 KBB percentage. And the key here is he's, you know, will the ship do anything with him? Because he gets ground balls 71% of the time with the Yankees. Now, the good news is he had a 186 expected batting average against using the stat cast data last season. That was the 94th percentile. You know, it's hard to barrel him up when the sinker is really working, which helps him in his home ballpark. So, just, but the thing is 99 strikeouts in 91.2 innings. So, you know, if you're getting him, just make sure you've got your strikeouts and 91.2 innings.

If you're getting him, just make sure you've got your strikeouts from your starters earlier in the draft. Again, when you're putting these builds together, you just have to know, if I've got a couple of elite strikeout guys, I can wait and get Clay Holmes. If I take a Max Freed or somebody else earlier, then I might want a Bautista just because he gives me a chance for more strikeouts to make up a little bit that you know Freed doesn't match up with some of the guys in his same tier and that strikeout thing so there's always many levels to the build so as you're doing one thing it allows you freedom to do something elsewhere so I mean Holmes and Bautista could end up with the same amount of saves this season it's just you know are you willing to take fewer strikeouts? And if you are, then Holmes is easy for you to pivot to and take at that price point. Yeah, which is in my first draft exactly the thing that I did. So I wonder

if I'll wind up with him in a lot of teams this year. And just to circle back to Bautista one more time. So I'm getting the sense that you're not at all concerned about injury risk with him in a lot of teams this year. And just to circle back to Bautista one more time. So I'm getting the sense that you're not at all concerned about injury risk with him. Well, I'm, I'm concerned. The, the, the positive for me would be is if this does drop his draft capital a little. So, you know, he was going ahead of Helsley and now with the news of the knee and the shoulder,

he's drifted behind him in the last two weeks of data when you're tracking those numbers. So again, it's opportunity costs. So if he does come down and if he does miss a couple of the weeks at the beginning of the season, you can still, you know, you can take somebody late to fill in and then just, you know, backfill those saves that you missed out on early on. But yes, I'm more worried about the shoulder. I mean, I know the knee can persist and whatever and might affect release point, but shoulders and pitchers, that's always a major concern. Treat yourself to Tim's new Fudge Brownie Lattes.

Made with freshly ground espresso beans, frothy steamed or ice chilled milk, and topped with marble chocolate curls. Now that's music to our ears. Available hot or iced only at Tim's. This episode is brought to you by Peloton. Forget the pressure to be crushing your workout on day one. Just start moving with the Peloton Bike, Bike Plus, Tread, Row, Guide, or App. There are thousands of classes and over 50 Peloton

instructors ready to support you from the beginning. Remember, doing something is everything. Rent the Peloton bike or bike plus today at onepeloton.ca slash bike slash rentals. All access membership separate. Terms apply. All right. Well, I'm going to add one more reliever to this category. Could have easily talked about this one in a later discussion that we're going to have about teams with committees. But I've got Jason Adam queued up in, well, I have him queued up in one draft right now in TGFBI last night in the Scott White Dynasty League.

I've been in for several years. That's a salary draft. So I got him for a dollar late, and I actually wound up leaving a couple of bucks on the table because I thought there'd be a little bit of competition at that point in a very, very deep league, 24-team league. I thought there'd be a little competition for somebody who, in my estimation, probably is going to get the most saves in the

bullpen. So, okay. Maybe that's where the disconnect is because maybe you think differently. But anyways, yeah. Do you think that Jason Adam is the sort of pitcher who should be going for more than a dollar? The fact that he helps your ratios and those other things, I think he's very valuable. So it depends on your league and your format. But yeah, I don't see why Jason Adam couldn't fetch $2 or $3 in what you're describing. Even in the second half last year when Fairbanks had his just massive breakout, I guess you want to say, I think he had a ridiculous like 40% K minus BB in the second half. I mean, that's just phenomenal. Adams still did very well.

So Fairbanks got eight saves in the second half. Adams still have four. So, you know, that's still a save share. I mean, that's not anything you can sneeze at. save share. I mean, that's not anything you can sneeze at. And if you look back at the numbers, the Rays, I don't think had a save the last like eight to 10 games of the season. They kind of struggled going into the playoffs. So that affected Fairbanks and, you know, Adam's total save outcome. So they're not going to push Fairbanks, you know, they're not going to burn him out early, especially with his injury past. So then there's not going to be a lot of back-to-backs. So definitely Adam is still going

to be a safe share in that bullpen. And with the raise, you know, they, they had, you know, they did the raise thing. They, they said, Jason, your fastball is not as good as your secondary pitches. So he threw less four seams last year. and then he mixed in more of his secondary offerings and the slider and the changeup, which resulted in the minuscule 0.76 whip. You know, he threw strikes more often, 67% strike percentage last year. And again, the K-BB was 16.5, but it ticked up in the second half. So, I mean, you know, Jason Adams, another one of these guys that we'll call a half closer, whereas he doesn't have, he's not going to get every save, but he's

still going to be a part of that matchup puzzle. So if he gives you eight to 10 saves and picks up a couple of the vulture wins, I think he easily returns value especially at a dollar in an auction yeah well and again given how you're describing what he'll finish with that that would uh explain some of my disconnect because i figure he'll get into double digits you know probably he could he could i mean we haven't seen a full season out of fairbanks again Again, I love Fairbanks, but I would want him as a second reliever, not my first, just because we don't know how durable he's going to be. Again, he was fantastic, and the team gave him the contract. I think people are connecting Fairbanks with that contract, so then the Rays don't have to worry about arbitration. They can let Fairbanks run with saves, and it's not going to cost them anything at a hearing at the end of the season,

whereas Adam is still in the arbitration process, which could cap his overall save total. But again, if something happens to Fairbanks, then all of that shifts. Yeah. Well, I mean, the race being the race, I'm sure they'll just plug one or two other people in. I'm not expecting Jason Adam to get 20 saves or make saves healthy. Even he, you know, there's going to be a spreading of the wealth there.

I mean, there'd be a big departure from the last several seasons if that wasn't the case. So, well, we'll get back to these committee type situations like the Rays have. But before we do, let's talk about some of the closers that are clearly, they're cemented, either just because the organization doesn't have the same kind of history of spreading the wealth or just because there's one reliever who's just the obvious ninth inning superior option there. So among closers who appear to have the job wrapped up as of right now, Greg, which ones would you say are the most at risk of losing the job during the season?

I mean, the elite ones. Last year, I was on Team Fade or Oldest Chapman, and luckily that worked out. The sun shines every so often when you're doing these things. At the top end this year, I mean, sure, an injury could knock the mountain off of the save pedestal for the Orioles, but I think it would be more injury-driven than performance. I'm a little, as much as I loved and told everybody to get Daniel Bard last year, I'm a little worried about him. A, you can't pay for a full repeat. You know, that's one of the oldest adages from Rick Wolfe and Glenn Colton with the never buy a career year. So I think I'm nervous, not just that, but both of his outings this spring.

Now the first time they made an excuse saying he didn't get a full compliment on warm-up pitches because they misread the timing when he entered the game to warm up. And then the second appearance, they said there was a cut on his thumb. But he's been sitting at 95 miles per hour so far. And again, I know it's early March and his velocity might pick up when they get into games in the WBC. But I just think there's a very narrow strip of him being able to run with it. And he said in a quote in an interview, I kept it for the site, that he's like, pitching with this pitch clock is like a cardio workout. Now let's take that and put it in Coors Field.

So you put it at an altitude. I mean, you know, again, I appreciate everything Daniel Barr did, but he's going to be 38. And you're talking about the pitch clock, altitude, lower velocity. That just to me is like a combination of things that makes me worry. And I think people are taking them, hoping or banking on that he's going to get 30-plus saves again this year, and the Rockies are probably not going to be very good, no matter what the management believes. So he's one of them. I've never been a big Kyle Finnegan guy, and he's a max effort pitcher, so I think he's another one. His improved results last year were based on his velocity going up, but if he's got less time in between pitches and he gets a little bit more fatigued, I just

get a little nervous about his fastball being a little flatter. And then all of a sudden, the things that were going his way last year are going to come back around. And we all know migration to the mean comes for everybody at times. So I wanted to say Jose Leclerc, but he's already sidelined with a minor neck issue. And now he's out of the WBC. But the Rangers situation feels like another one. Now, I don't understand what the Rangers are doing. Now, last year, they had the worst one-run record in baseball.

So they lost more one-run games than anybody. And they lost over 50 games by two runs or fewer. And they have spent zero on their bullpen in the last two years with all of these spending sprees. I mean, I'm not saying you have to have a closer, but I don't understand how they ignored, they let Matt Moore walk, and they did nothing to bolster that unit. Now, they're banking on LeClerc and Hernandez being better with a full year removed from Tommy John surgery, and that could be fine, but one has command issues and the other one lacks swing and missed up. So that's probably a bullpen I'm going to avoid. So those are three

of the relievers that if they're coming up and I see them in the thing, I'll let somebody else take that risk. Yeah, yeah. And again, same thinking here as well. A couple other relievers. I'm not really sure what to do with them. Again, we're at this point talking about low-end RP2, RP3. But Alex Lang and Carlos Estevez, would you put them in the category of pretty close to a lock for most of the saves or not?

I think Lang gets it just because, you know, I have no faith in Jason Foley. He gives up a lot of contact. I don't have a lot of faith in Jose Cisneros. So, I mean, almost by being the last man standing, it's Lang to start the year. Just, you know, he's very similar. He has the same warts that Gregory Soto did, high walk rate. So, I mean, he has two pitches that generate tremendous swing and miss, but his fastball is not very good. So how do the Tigers help him mitigate his fastball

and keep traffic off the bases? Because if he's wild, things can go sideways fast. So, you know, he might get you 20 plus saves, but he's also going to have a few meltdowns that might affect your ratios. I don't mind Estevez. I kind of hope he gets the first chance at it. It's very hard to quantify what a guy's going to do full-time out of course. So, you know, I know Zimmerman did the whole thing. When a hitter leaves, you do two road and one home and kind of, you know, make that aggregate when you're trying to project what might happen. And Estevez already said in an interview that he would go on the road and things would start to feel good, and then he would come back to cores,

and then you're back to square one. It was very difficult to maintain your arsenal when you're going between the two venues. So on the road since 2021, he does have a K-BB above 20, which is something we want out of our relievers. But he still had a 1.28 whip, so that might speak to he couldn't get full gaining. So if we can get him down towards a 1.20 whipper below and we can hold some of that K-BB gains, I'm interested because I think the Angels will be okay this year.

A-BB games, I'm interested because I think the Angels will be okay this year. And I've read on more than one place that they want Matt Moore and Jimmy Herget to be able to do multiple inning outings if they need it. I think that was the allure of having them both there. Now, I don't mind if you're getting Moore in an AL only for five to seven saves. That's probably smart. If Estevez can get 20 saves as the primary save share i think you're at his price point you're doing fine um and then i know a lot of people love ben joyce and the gifts and you know he's a pitching ninja ninja favorite but at tennessee he worked on back-to-back days once and in his very limited exposure at AA, he has not. So he's already had two Tommy John surgeries. I love the stuff. He's electric and I'm pulling for him. I just don't know that he's

ready to like, I know some people are taking him late thinking he's going to usurp and take over that closer role. He could maybe in the second half. I can't predict what's going to happen. But I want to see him working on back-to-back days and being able to stay healthy, uh, before I think he's going to be ready to be what, what we want to call a closer. Okay. And we, uh, you know, and I've had discussions on some, some previous episodes about what to do with, uh, spring training stats and with relievers. Of course, this is especially tricky, right? Because, you know, shorter outings, fewer innings, fewer pitches.

So is there anything that goes on right now during spring training that raises red flags for you? Or, you know, the converse that, you know, you get more excited about a reliever? In spring, you know, and again, we have to take velocity to the grain of salt because we don't know if it's a hot gun or, you know, and one of the guys, I can't remember if it was Edwin Diaz

or somebody else who's like, you know, it's hard to get charged up to come into the third inning of a spring training game, you know, and light it up, you know. And I can understand that. You kind of, sometimes you're going through the motions, but we are going to track some velocity, just see what's happening. I really try and focus on the K to BB ratio. I know I've been saying that over and over, but, you know, if a guy's getting strikeouts and he's not walking people, that's what I want. I want somebody that, you know, keeps that whip lower and less traffic in high-leverage situations means more success.

So I just want guys that are going out there, getting their reps in, and throwing strikes. So like yesterday, Clay Holmes only threw seven strikes out of 13 pitches. That's not optimal. I mean, he got out with a clean inning because he can manufacture ground balls. But we want to see that improve as the next. It's so weird. I was saying on a different podcast that like, you know, this is like the first time in a while, it feels like we actually have an actual spring training. You know, we had the COVID mess and then we had

the, we had the lockout last year. Everything was like so compressed in those couple of, now it's like, okay, you know, so I don't want to overreact early, but at the same token, I can't ignore that Kimbrel and a couple other people are sitting like two to three miles per hour below where they were at the beginning of last year. Yeah. Well, you know, you mentioned last year with the lockout. And it's amazing that in one year I got really used to that compressed schedule because I'm thinking, oh, you know, opening day must be around the corner. We've had a week of games, but yeah, we've got three weeks to go basically. So it's, that's just a weird thing. All right, Greg, well, let's talk about some more of the committees. We've already talked about the Rays a little bit, but I think it's fair.

And again, feel free to disagree, but that's not a situation where I expect Jason Adam or Fairbanks or anybody else to emerge because that's just not been their MO for several years now. But I've got half a dozen different situations here that to me could kind of go one way or the other. I could see one reliever emerging or not. So let's go through these one by one. The Dodgers, this is just a strange situation too, because the Dodgers historically have not been a team that have gone with the committee, but they seem primed to do that this year. So is there anybody that you see as a better target in drafts than others because of their potential to emerge as more or less a primary closer? I was in early on Daniel Hudson just because he's got 32 career saves, and he had some saves last year before he got shut down with the knee surgery. But, you know, he's been a little bit delayed, so we're not sure if he's going to be ready for opening day coming back from the ACL. You know, everybody wants it to be ready for opening day coming back from the ACL. You know, everybody

wants it to be Evan Phillips, but, you know, he's kind of, he's kind of pigeonholed because he's the H, he's the HLR that I referred to earlier. He's their, he's their highest leverage reliever. So I remember there was one game in the playoffs. I can't remember which game it was, but they tried, the one time they tried to save phillips for the ninth inning to get the save then the seventh and eighth inning guys imploded and then it didn't matter so then they didn't get to use phillips for a safe situation because they lost the game and i think that's going to resonate with dave roberts um even after the game he kind of said he goes you know i kind of was saving them and then that that in hindsight, that could have been a mistake.

He was used to using Phillips against the hardest part. So if the 2-3-4 or 3-4-5 batters were coming up in the eighth, that's when Evan Phillips came in, and Kimbrell kind of got a lot of his saves against the lower part of the lineup because Phillips did the heavy lifting. And I think that's probably going to happen again to Phillips. I don't think they're going to save him just for the ninth inning. So we have to just kind of figure out as spring progresses who is emerging as the preferred options to be in the ninth inning if Phillips does do the eighth. Is it Alex Vecchia if there's left-handers coming up? Is it, I mean, we've seen him mention Yancey Almonte.

Are they going to finally give Broussard Gratterall a chance? I mean, there's so many. The hard thing about the Dodgers is there's like four lines you could put in the water, and you don't know if any of them are really going to get you enough saves to justify leaving them on your roster. And then it's almost like sometimes it gets to be whack-a-mole where, all right, Graderell gets two saves. I add him on Sunday. And then on Monday, Almonte gets the save. And I'm like, what happened?

You know? So that happened with the Reds a couple years ago. People were just burning their free agency budget on getting the guy who got the save last week, not the one who got the save the week coming. And it's, you know, then it's like you leave him on the bench and then he gets the save and it just causes frustration. So I don't know that I want to venture into here unless clarity emerges or Dave Roberts comes out and says,

okay, we like what this guy's, if somebody just has a lights out spring, then they could possibly do it. But I'm going to wait and hold in this situation. Okay. And so I want to clarify something because you just said you don't really want to venture into there at this point. Is that your general approach? I remember that Reds situation very well, burned a lot of fab on that one. So when you're mid-season and you think you see a trend emerging, based on past lessons, how do you

approach that now? Or how do you plan on approaching that this year? Are you still going to take the attitude of, uh, I I'm going to avoid that situation or do you have some methods for, for, you know, trying to find the best candidate going forward? Well, as I was saying, if somebody is showing me something, if there's a differentiation in his skill set or something sets him apart from his teammates, like last year, Ryan Helsley, I would like to thank a lot of places before he got that first save because once they get that saved, then the free agency capital tax goes up once the guy does it. So you just want to monitor those and you're trying to track, you know, who's working where, who's in the seventh, who's in the eighth, is there an HLR, what's the approach? And I just try and really focus on those things. So again, and another situation we'll talk about, I mean, the better relievers probably not going to get

the saves, but that's just the way that that team is built for their approach and high leverage. Yeah. And that's an important thing to know because I've also gotten burned just assuming that the most skilled reliever is the one who's going to emerge. And that's, you have to pay attention to that team context. Now, one team I have on this list probably shouldn't have included them. We've already talked about them and that's the Angels. So from what you were saying before, I sort of gathered that you think there is a primary candidate here in Estevez,

but we'll revisit this again just because I had them on the list. Yeah, well, I mean, the general manager signed him and basically said, you know, it's his role to lose, but it's ultimately up to Phil Nevin. So, you know, and it's funny because in his first outing, he imploded. He gave up like three earned runs and was terrible. I think, you know, there's always that you want to come out and prove to everybody that, yeah, I deserve that money. I'm the guy. I'm going to show you why. And then you overthrow and you squeeze the ball a little too hard and, you know, you miss your spot and the ball gets hit.

So you've got to be patient. We'll let this play out. But, yes, I think the Angels, and again, I'll cite those numbers. So in 62 games away from Coors from 2001 forward, 57.2 innings. He had 22 games finished, 66 to 14 K to BB. Again, I'm a little worried about the 1-2-8 whip. I need that down, but it was a 21.1 K minus BB percentage. I mean, that's pretty solid.

I mean, we want a primary save share to have a K minus BB of 20% or higher. Ideally, it doesn't mean it's the only measure we use, but that just means he's getting strikeouts and not issuing walks. And that's a good barometer of what we're doing or searching for. So, again, as long as he stays within himself, I think he can emerge. I just don't want to put it in stone, but I'm getting to a point where I've got to choose between him and another guy we're going to have to talk about, possibly, in a draft that I'm in right now. I'm hoping to get 20 saves from one or the other. All right. Well, let's move on to the Phillies.

When they signed Craig Kimbrell, I just assumed, okay, that's, that's the new Phillies closer. That's not how it's showing up on roster resource. And I put some credence in that because Kimbrell's been shaky. There are some other candidates there. Sir Anthony Dominguez, the aforementioned Gregory Soto, who have some skills, have some experience. So how are you reading the tea leaves on this one?

some skills, have some experience. So how are you reading the tea leaves on this one? Well, I mean, I have to believe Rob Thompson when he says he's using a, I'm doing the air tags, they said it's going to be a floating closer, which is basically telling you that it's going to be matchup based. I think Sir Anthony Dominguez will be the, what I refer to as my HLR, which means he'll take the highest leverage moment, whether it's the seventh, eighth, or ninth inning. So when the best right-handed hitters from the other team are coming up to bat, so if Acuna in the top of the order is coming around for Atlanta in the eighth inning, then you're going to see Sir Anthony. If it's a tough left-handed pocket of the lineup coming up,

then I still think Alvarado will be the preferred option over Soto. Alvarado and Dominguez did sign contracts, so they took extensions buying out their arbitration years. Gregory Soto is still under arbitration, so it's good to trade for Soto, but they can put him in the sixth or seventh inning. He doesn't have to be the closer, especially with what happened last

year. So I think Philadelphia just got him to have another arm to really, I think they know, especially if like Andrew Painter or whatever makes the team, but I think they know their fourth and fifth pitchers, they're going to need to make games shorter. So if they need to bring the relievers starting in the fourth inning, they can do that with how they're structuring their bullpen with Bilotti and Brogdon and then the four guys that we're referencing as the highest leveraged options that Roster Resource is sharing. So again, this would be, I would take a wait and see. If I'm taking the best reliever, I'm probably, I lean towards Sir Anthony.

But Jose Alvarado was very, very good in the second half last year. I don't know if he can repeat those command games, but at some point, it could be Dominguez and Alvarado sharing the ninth based on the matchups, which is still a pretty good bullpen. Kimbrough does have ties with Dabrowski, again, but I really need to see his velocity improve over the next three weeks. All right. Well, let's talk about the twin situation, which, you know, might be a little bit of a stretch to call it a committee. I guess you have a two-person committee, but I think that Jorge Lopez and Yohan Duran are the, you know, the only real candidates here to close more than

a handful of games. And to me, this seems like kind of a no-brainer. Like, I don't see how Lopez keeps pace with Duran in this situation, looking at the skills. But is this one of those situations, Greg, that you were talking about where you throw the skills out and you look at something else that dictates the usage? Yeah. I mean, from a skill standpoint, no. Lopez is bringing a knife to a gunfight, putting his skills against Duran. However, the twins are notorious for depressing arbitration

salaries by not letting young relievers get saves. Taylor Rogers spoke out about it after he got traded to San Diego. He was very open in saying, I wanted to be the closer, but they would use other people because they didn't want to pay me more salary. I mean, he said it. So it's not like I'm speculating saying, well, I think the twins might keep his. So if they will, I mean, look at how long of a leash they gave to Emilio Pagan last year. I mean, my goodness. I mean, we all know Duran was better in spring training than Emilio Pagan was, but they kept running him out there. I think they see saves as fungible,

and they want Duran to be able to face the best part of the other team's lineup. So, again, Duran's going to get saves because sometimes Aaron Judge is going to be batting in the ninth inning and they're going to need duran to face them but um there's gonna be plenty of times where duran has the pitch in the 738th and then lopez is gonna come in and scoop up those those saves so um lopez was the other one i was referring to i'm probably gonna be taking one or the other um just because i'm hoping one or here estevez can give me 20 saves which is all I need in the current contest that I'm in you know in a 15 teamer that that number I talked about drops down in the in the top 25 teams in the main event last year the top 25 teams they averaged 59

saves so that's a 15 teamer with free agency so um you know now you now you lower that number down to 60 the deeper the league goes the you know the less saves you need to be viable in the standings you know you can take two stud closers but like we talked about then you're creating other issues yeah yeah especially the 15 teamer it's definitely could thin out your your roster in a hurry all right well a well, a couple more interesting situations here. The Cubs doesn't look to me like there's a clear person who could emerge. You're nodding no, so you're in agreement there. Yeah, and then we all, a lot of us that were drafting early have to blame Eno

because he put out that stuff about Jeremiah Estrada, and now his draft capital has moved up like 10 rounds. So you used to be able to get Estrada past the 40th round in the DCs and the NFBC, and now he's ticking up near round 30. So the hype train has left the station on Jeremiah Estrada. The unfortunate part is he has minor league options, and the Cubs signed about every veteran right-handed reliever that they could and brought him into camp so I think they're going to throw a bunch of spaghetti at

the wall and see what sticks which doesn't help Estrada which means he as as good as Estrada was last year with a 30 percent k minus bb percentage in the minors last year, he could open the year at AAA because they want to see what happens with Boxberger and Fulmer and Brandon Hughes as their lefties in the ninth inning. Or, heck, they have Julian Merriweather in there, Tyler Duffy. Tyler Duffy's struck out five of the six hitters he's faced in the spring so far. So, I mean, I'm not saying Tyler Duffy's going to be getting saves, but I'm saying the Cubs are going to just use some veterans and then they'll bring up Estrada when they need him.

Even the beat writers on The Athletic have said Estrada might not break camp with the team just because he has minor league options available, which you have to realize that. If Estrada's your walk-off pick, you're going to have to be patient. That means he's chewing up a roster spot for a month on your team if they wait until May to bring him up when one of those other guys flames out. I like Alzulai. I just don't know how they're going to use him.

If he's multiple innings, then I like him less, but I think his stuff could play up in high-leverage moments. So if it's from a stuff standpoint, I'm team Alzelie and Estrada. If you're going on the veteran with closer experience, then you're looking at Boxberger, Fulmer, and whatever other mess they have going on there. But again, I'd rather play the patient game and wait until someone emerges before spending draft capital to find out.

All right. Well, so in other words, that's a situation is every bit as messy as it actually looks. Yes, it is. And they've said as much. Yeah. All right. Well, let's finish up here with the Marlins and their stated intention is to go with a committee. And I mean, they've kind of built their bullpen that way this off season. But again, same question there do you see anybody in particular running running away eventually with that role uh running away with it I don't know I mean you know walking we all

strolling I I know there's nothing exciting about Dylan Floro and I'm not even sure I would take him, but he does have 25 saves since the start of 2021 with a 14.3K minus BB. Now, he did finish strong. He converted seven of his nine save chances at the end of last season. He did put up a 15.4K to BB with a 0.85 whip. I just don't know if that's repeatable in his last 15.1 innings. I remember Craig Misch was talking about before Floro got hurt that the team kind of liked him because they felt like he could handle messy situations, like if there was a runner or two on, he could come in,

get a ground ball, get him out of the inning, not necessarily saving him for the ninth inning. And, again, that could happen to him this year. And Craig also said that the team viewed A.J. Puck in a Hader-like role. Now, I don't know if he's referring to the multiple-inning 2018 Josh Hader or if he's talking about the 2022 one-inning Josh Hader that the Brewers ended up trading because Hader wasn't willing to work more than one inning. So maybe Puck could emerge as the season goes forward. He did throw today.

That was on Twitter. So it was a leg injury. Again, we don't want anything with the shoulder or arm with Puck. If it's the leg, we'll deal with it. So maybe as the season progresses, Puck could usurp Floral for the primary safe share, but Schumacher seems pretty resigned to the committee slash matchup approach. All right. Well, any situations we haven't talked about that are worth talking about? It's all relative. And I think the WBC will help us sort some of this out because we'll see better VLOs

and because it's higher competition. But you put a thing in there about Arizona. I'm hoping somebody can emerge, you know, because like last year, nobody was drafting Daniel Bard at the beginning of March, but by the end, after he showed in camp that he was taking that spot and running with it, we want to see. I'm interested in what Miguel Castro can do working with Brent Strom, and you know, Castro's always had stuff, we just didn't have the command. Can he do for Castro what

Strom did for Ryan Presley? That's what I'm curious about. They've got Scott McGough, who closed a bunch of games in the MPB, had very similar numbers to Robert Suarez, maybe after he adjusts. And he gets the advantage of a full spring training, whereas Suarez did not, and things of that nature. So just enter with eyes wide open, and I'll be having a bunch of posts coming up in the next couple of weeks about all of these situations and how we see them

and trying to read the tea leaves and things of that nature. And there's always a guy or two that kind of comes out of nowhere and takes over one of these spots, and that's what my job at The Athletic is to do, is to identify those guys. The most gratifying I get at the end of every year is people will put down, after the last article, hey, I have this, I have Bautista, and I have this guy because you were talking about him in March.

And that's what I work hard to do, is to identify those people before other folks are on them. Well, and yeah, that's a tremendous value to all of us who play fantasy. You do a great job with it, Greg. So yeah, please do seek out Greg's work in the athletic. It's great stuff. He will help you win leagues. So I appreciate that a lot, Greg.

So that said, if you do want to contact us, you can do so by email. Our address for the show here is ratesandbarrels, all spelled out, ratesandbarrels at gmail.com. Or you can put a question in the comments right here on YouTube. Or you can find us on Twitter. So the absent Enoceros is at Enoceros. I'm at al Melchior BB. And Greg is at G Jewett 9, the number 9G Jewett 9.

So find us and definitely, you know, send your send your closer questions or reliever questions to Greg. I hope you don't mind me telling people to do that. I'm sure you don't. I answer what I can. Fair enough.

Fair enough. We all do. So thank you all so much for tuning in. Fair enough. We all do. So thank you all so much for tuning in. Hope you have a great weekend. And of course, we'll be back here again on Monday. Thank you.