Rates & Barrels - Cole & Judge Injuries, Mixed LABR Draft Strategies and Projections Pushback w/Mike Gianella

Episode Date: March 12, 2024

DVR is joined by Mike Gianella of Baseball Prospectus to discuss a busy weekend of news and notes including MRIs for Gerrit Cole and Aaron Judge (among others), an 80-game PED suspension for Noelvi Marte, and more. Plus, they discuss their strategies from the 15-team Mixed LABR draft in which Mike built a roster around a power-heavy base and DVR opted for a 'Pocket Aces' build.  Rundown 2:06 Gerrit Cole: Has MRI on Elbow; Likely to Miss Opening Day 3:40 Aaron Judge: MRI on Abdomen; Timetable Unclear 5:02 Noelvi Marte: Suspended 80 Games for Positive PED Test 8:48 Edward Cabrera: MRI Reveals Shoulder Impingement; Targeting Late-Round Marlins Starting Pitchers? 13:14 Sonny Gray: Progressing From Hamstring Injury 15:10 Devin Williams: Visiting with Spine Specialist 21:16 Jordan Lawlar: Optioned to Reno; Stashing Prospects in Redraft Leagues 29:04 Mixed LABR Draft Apporaches (Full Draft Board: https://rtsports.com/labr-mixed-draft) | Building From a Late-Round Position 42:46 When Do You Disagree with Projections? 55:42 Experiences with Pocket Aces Follow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiper Follow DVR on Bluesky: @dvr.bsky.social Follow Mike on Bluesky: @mikegianella.bsky.social Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarris e-mail: [e-mail] Join our Discord: https://discord.gg/FyBa9f3wFe Join us on Fridays at 1p ET/10a PT for our new livestream episodes w/Trevor May! https://www.youtube.com/c/ratesbarrels Subscribe to The Athletic for just $2/month for the first year: theathletic.com/ratesandbarrels Please fill out a quick survey to share your podcast habits with us by going to theathletic.com/survey24. Three lucky entries will win $100 worth of Amazon vouchers! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Welcome to Raids and Barrels is Tuesday, March 12th. Derek Van Rijper here with Mike Gianella of Baseball Prospectus. Eno of course has an interesting story to tell once he comes back, likely on Wednesday, explaining why he's not here today. But I'm excited because Mike is going to be fantastic. Mike, someone I played against in the industry leagues, in the labor, TGPI, Tau Wars for probably, I don't know, a decade or so now. We go back kind of a long way now.

Yeah, it's been about a decade, maybe like eight years. But yeah, it's been a long time and you and I are in labor this year together. So we're back competing against each other, unfortunately, because you're. A very good player. Apparently, I'm not fun to play against. Maybe I'm fun to draft with for like, you know, entertainment purposes or the camaraderie, the chatter. But yeah, a lot, a lot of good stuff here that we're going to break down. We're going to talk about some news.

A lot of news happened since we last, uh, had the show on Friday. And of course, the Friday livestream being less news focused, even more stuff has happened. Uh, we have, uh, the discord, a quick reminder, you can sign up for our discord. I'll put the link for that in the show description in the discord. You will find a link to the listener League, which is open to more than 200 people. It says 200 people, there's a limit in each fan tracks contest of 200. If it fills, we'll add another one.

We'll do as many as we can to keep filling them. It's an open salary cap contest, no entry fee. And the fun prize that we decided on is the top 10 finishers in the overall contest Will be invited to a listener league that Eno and I will be a part of for 2025 so Very cool random prize that we decided to put together just to make this fun something we can all do together I like I like formats that are open where you can have possibly hundreds or even thousands of people all kind of competing to To go up against each other.

But we begin today with some news from Yankees camp. Garrett Cole was sent for an MRI and I just saw before we started recording Mike, they're not expecting him to be back for opening day. The MRI was on his elbow. The results have not been shared yet. It sounds like they're going to take a few more days, get a few more opinions, which isn't exactly what you want to hear, right? We've done this long enough where you get a sense of where the news might be headed based on

what people are saying or what people aren't saying. Aaron Boone met with the media on Tuesday. The fact that they didn't have a full update from the MRI yet seems pretty ominous at this point. Yeah, it's not good news. Like even if it's inflammation or something on the low end, I have to think they're going to be cautious with him, both because of the contract and because of his stature. If I had to guess, I'd say he's going to miss a month on the conservative side. I mean, I don't have more information than you do, but I would just play it very cautiously with him right now.

Yeah. A lot of times you can take advantage of the opportunity that comes with the uncertainty when there was a little bit of uncertainty about Ronald Acuna Jr.'s knee. It felt like, hey, there's a chance if you're drafting second or third in this little window where we don't know what's going on, you might get Acuna at a spot where you ordinarily wouldn't. I would not take that same kind of risk right now with Garrett Cole. He had to fall several rounds for me to even think about it right now because the possibility of a long-term absence is very, very real based on what we're seeing right now. The Yankees also may have

to bring in another pitcher if Cole's gonna miss a lot of time. Blake Snell, of course, still out there, so a lot of rumors about that being a possibility. Aaron Judge sent for an MRI as well. This on his abdomen. I didn't realize Judge was really dealing with anything until I saw this note pop up on Rotowire. I love Judge. I think he's one of those players that people usually unfairly ding for past injuries. This may create a buying opportunity, but I've had a hard time making heads and tails

what's going on here. Apparently, he's not going to swing a bat until later in the week after having this MRI on Monday. So it's a little bit more of a holding pattern for now, but it doesn't seem nearly as bad as what we're dealing with with Garrett Cole, right? This almost sounds like an oblique type injury, something that could be a month or so for Judge and he'd probably come back from it if it even takes that long. Yeah. So he's had oblique issues before. That's kind of the one thing I'd be careful with him. Like that being said, you're right. Like the projections generally have him really high, like third or fourth overall in a roto format. So if you're pushing him down, I feel like the discount's already baked in and you don't really need to push him down that much further. But if you do draft Judge, what it comes down to is you kind of have to have a plan

like either on reserve or later in the draft or some other outfielders. Yeah, have a little extra depth case he does and missing some time. We'll wait for more information on that. And of course, follow up once we actually have something with a more clarity. We learned going into the weekend, Noel V. Marte was suspended 80 games for a positive PED test. And I think of all the depth charts in the league, there are two that people have been wrestling with this entire winter.

Mike, one is the Reds, the other is the Orioles. Unfortunately, Marte is going to miss half the season. Fortunately, we get some more clarity. As you look at the moving parts on this team, who do you have as sort of the biggest playing time winners as a result of Marte's extended absence in Cincinnati? I don't know if they have a big winner. I just sort of like everybody on that depth chart. Like I have it in front of me right now. I think we knew that Candelaria was going to play because of the contract, but it might open up some time for Spencer Steer to be more of a true utility player and get some games in the infield. Probably Jonathan India is the big winner. I know that

sounds weird because at one point, you know, India was just such a top prospect in his own right. It just really seems to mean to me that if he's healthy, and it's a big question with him and a lot of players on the Reds, that he'll play. But I'm probably going to bump up a lot of those infielders, like a dollar or two, and my bid limits over at baseball prospectus and move them up maybe, like, about half a round to a round, depending on the player. I feel like it's a win for, you know, outside of the obvious players on that team. It's a win for everybody. And even Tyler Stevenson, Tyler Stevenson, I was a little bit worried, wasn't going to DH like he's done in the past for the Reds. I see him doing that now. I see him getting some reps at DH. And I think that helps him a little bit. Yeah. So when you start to look at the way it

shakes out, if you had less than a full share of playing time for Christian and Karnas, he owned Strand previously, I think you can nudge him up closer to a full share at least for the first half of the season. And by the time you get Marte back, so much could change. You could have a midseason trade. You could have multiple injuries. I almost feel like projecting the playing time beyond Marte's absence is not even worthwhile. Someone could play poorly and lose their spot. Like there's a whole bunch of ways this whole situation can play out. I'm with you that Candelario all along because of the money they gave him felt like he was already a max volume player. India was a pretty good bargain in drafts for most of draft season.

I don't think that's even going to change. I mean, I'm looking at the min pick just in March for the NFBC 12 teamers is 222. It's not at all cost prohibitive for a guy that really can help you across the board in every category. And now seemingly will be closer to that, that everyday role. Steer in particular is a guy that I have not drafted at all yet this winter. I'm curious what you think about Steers skills in general. Like, do you buy into him as a guy that will, because of his versatility, play enough and then come through and repeat something at least close to what he did in 2023? I don't think he's going to repeat, but my concern with him was mostly playing time.

I felt like if he slipped a little with all that volume, he'd slip a lot. So now that I look at him, if he puts up 2010 or so in a full season in that lineup with the run and RBI opportunities, I like him. I feel like he's going to do enough and he's versatile enough that you can, you know, as you pointed out, Derek, move him around. Still probably fading him a little bit on his ADP, but not nearly so much anymore. And I'm a little less afraid and you could see taking him in like the eighth round or so, maybe the ninth. Yeah. Yeah. I think there's a better case for Spencer Steer now.

And there was when we were trying to fit Marte into the first half playing time picture, because Marte looked like a priority play for the Reds. Like, even if it wasn't full playing time, it was going to be three out of every four games. He was going to be in the lineup because there's power, there's speed, long term still someone I really like. But just the kind of frustrating outcome here if you have already drafted and have a few shares of Novi Marte on your rosters. More MRI news.

Edward Cabrera sent for an MRI on his shoulder and the diagnosis I believe in this one has now been revealed to be an impingement. So not, not like real bad, could be a lot worse, not a tear. But I think with Cabrera, one thing that I've always worried about with him is it's not just the walks, it is a pretty lengthy injury history as he made his way through that Marlin system, missed a lot of time with various arm injuries. Getting a full season from him has always seemed like a little bit of a stretch. So even if he figures it all out and he's certainly putting together a nice spring,k's no walks in 5 innings so far

I do have reservations about the volume and this sort of gives us that. Oh, yeah That's always part of the package with Edward Cabrera, which is really unfortunate. Yeah, you know The one thing I'll say is Favor his ADP and I don't have the most reasonable numbers in front of me It's so low that I can't be too concerned. Like he feels like a pitcher that, you know, in a league with liberal reserve moves, you can drop pretty easily. But yeah, that's the other side of it. If you were moving him up because the stuff's electric, he's exciting, you know, he's that pitcher, you watch him for six innings and you

think, oh boy, like I have to have him on my team when he's at his best, but so much can go wrong with him. And there's so many pitchers on the Marlins too, like on the depth chart that it'd be pretty easy to see him go on the IEL as a precautionary measure and disappear for a couple months. They've got a ton of depth right now. I mean, they make sense as a team that could easily use a six man rotation because you've got Yuri Perez as someone you're going to limit. Jesus Lazardo has had some injury issues in the past.

Braxton Garrett has been banged up the spring. Cabrera has had the lengthy injury history. They're stretching AJ Puck out. He continues to have a really nice spring. Trevor Rogers is coming off an injury. Max Meyers coming back from Tommy John. None of those guys other than Lazardo really project to have full air quotes, workloads,

where they'd be out there for 30 plus starts this season. So if they go with the six man rotation, I think it would it would really like fit them well. Are you finding that you are generally in on many of these Marlins pictures though? Because cost isn't really much of a problem. I mean, for as exciting as Yuri Perez is, his ADP for now sits right around pick 75. I think that's actually somewhat manageable. Lazardo goes up in that same kind of range. And then you get that big drop before you get down to Garrett in the 250 range. Cabrera goes a little after that in most rooms. Puck goes a little after that. Rodgers kind of goes in that same tier. Meyer looked really

good in his first spring outing. I haven't seen him pitch since then. But is there anyone in this group that you really are trying to target right now? No, although maybe I should be. Puck is somebody I'm just reacting to his spring training and his ability and the reports on him have been glowing. I probably should be grabbing more of him in some of my leagues. And Rodgers is another one just based on price. Nice guy to pick up. If he's anything close to what he was, great. You got a bargain. If not, he's a pretty easy drop. Probably the two at the top. It's just almost weird draft things, right? Like I like Lizardo. I just haven't gotten him anywhere. Just based on where my draft position's been because, you know, he comes up. I'm like, oh, he looks good.

And then he's gone. Like somebody took him a few picks before me. My, my, my wearing this with Perez is just the innings. You know, just the idea that if he only pitches 110, 120 innings, I feel like at that price, and yes, I know innings are lower now, you're just kind of losing a little something there at that ADP. I don't doubt the ability, though. He could be great. I think within that tier, you do give up innings with a lot of the pitchers you're thinking about, but not all of them and Depending on what you've done with your rotation to that point, especially it could be pretty risky I've talked a lot about if I have Terak scuba as my ace

I'm not necessarily going after Yuri Perez as my number two I want to make sure that I'm getting enough innings from my top three top four pitchers as a group as opposed to You know just chasing the guys I want There's a there's a reason for combining the guys I like together in certain ways. We'll get into that a little bit more as we talk about some draft strategy later on in the show. I want a quick follow up note here from the Red Sox. Lucas Gelito will have an elbow surgery. They did not specify if it's internal brace or a second Tommy John.

So we'll await to see if they actually clarify that at some point here in the coming days, but a very lengthy absence expected for G. Alito, not a surprise, of course, based on where that news was headed just a few days ago. Some good news. Sonny Gray progressing from his hamstring injury, he was able to throw a bullpen session Monday, had no problems with that. So they're going to give him a longer bullpen session on Wednesday or Thursday.

It wasn't quite a max longer bullpen session on Wednesday or Thursday. It wasn't quite a max effort bullpen session on Monday, but this seems like a situation we've been in before with Sonny Gray, Mike, and part of the reason you get a discount most years is because he's another one of those guys that has had a very difficult time delivering full workloads year after year after year. But the results, especially since he's gotten out of Cincinnati, have been fantastic these last two seasons. Yeah, I mean, he had that time with the Yankees too, which wasn't good, but you're right. Beyond that, like he was a mainstay on a couple of my teams last year.

He's just reliable. You know what you're going to get? The strikeouts aren't going to be great, but he just goes like every fifth or sixth day. He's projectable. Yes, the ERA last year was kind of a fluke, but you're probably looking at a mid-3s pitcher with solid ratios who's should give you like 28 to 30 starts. And it's kind of what we talked about before with you were talking about the innings, which is yes, he's not going to give you 180, 190 innings,

90 innings, but who will? So if he misses two or three starts over the course of the year, gives you 150, 160, that's more than fine. Yeah, I've seen a couple of leagues where he's fallen pretty far. ADP in March in those 12 team leagues, it's around pick 140. Very reasonable price. Even with this injury, I think you threw 20 pitches in that bullpen session on Monday. There's a possibility that he's not completely stretched out when the season begins. Sometimes you do have guys who avoid the IL, but they have a restriction They throw 65 70 pitches in their first start if that were the case

I think I'd still be fine with gray in my lineup in the first week for most deeper leagues at least I mean, I don't I don't know I like the skills a lot and I think the team context is very favorable He's the only cardinal starting pitcher that I actually like right now And I think you're getting a very fair price in part because of this seemingly mild injury. Here's a situation that popped up and seemingly got a lot worse very quickly. Devin Williams is visiting with a spine specialist. He's already had an MRI. Initially they were kind of downplaying this and saying it's nothing serious, but when you send someone to a spine specialist, I'm generally

going to put the red caution sign up and say, hey, this is possibly a really big deal. So second opinion coming this week, don't know what that's going to reveal just yet. They have been really careful with him this spring. I think he's only appeared in two Cactus League games so far. The big question really is, in Milwaukee, who do you like as the next option up for saves if Devon Williams is going to end up missing some time? Because it was Joel Pye Amps at the beginning of last year in the setup role. He kind of faded to more of a seventh inning role. They brought up Abner Uribe. He's really young, he's

electric, didn't necessarily take over a high-leverage spot, even though he was occasionally used in those situations. There's Trevor McGill, who was just a filthy option for them over the course of the year as well. Who stands out to you as maybe the most likely to emerge as Williams replacement? It's probably Puy Ops, but you're right. There isn't a reliever here that necessarily stands out. I did grab Puy Ops before this injury news in in an NL only at a buck, but that was really just more for volume and innings and quality. McGill, I've seen higher up on the depth charts. This really feels like a situation where you don't know.

And if you're in a draft that's going on right now, I feel like you take one of these relievers on reserve and just kind of cross your fingers. And if it's a slow drafting rate, I on right now, I feel like you take one of these relievers on reserve and just kind of Crush your fingers and if it's a slow drafting rate took Williams that that's that's really what you do You take McGill you take Piox Maybe even take your rebate who you know the skills are off the charts and if you get a closer great If you don't you just move on a week one I've always tried to use proximity to the ninth inning as my next man-up sort of mentality. The problem,

I think, is you've got a new manager in Pat Murphy. You've had a long-term capital C closer in Milwaukee. Going back to Josh Hader probably three or four years ago, shifting exclusively into that role, Williams just sort of took the torch and has been phenomenal ever since. So the seats next to those guys have been very fluid. But as an organization, they've shown a consistent ability to find and tweak and develop really good high leverage relievers. So the next person up could take the job and run with it while Williams is out at least. They may be able to avoid the dreaded committee. But I'm with you. I followed this team really closely and I don't think there's a case against any one of those three

guys. I don't think there's any clarity at the moment as to who that option really is. But interesting that Pymps was the guy you drafted that last opportunity. I think if you had three kicks in the can and you wanted to get one of each, I don't think you'd necessarily be wrong. You'll only be right one time in that instance, or you could be wrong all three times if there's a fourth candidate there that we're not even talking about right now. That's always fun when that plays out that way. This is worth watching for sure because this seems like an IELTS stand is almost certainly going to be there for Devin Williams at the beginning of the year at least.

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starting the good habit that much easier. Start the good habit at trifume.com slash barrels to save 10% off the journey pack today. This one caught me by surprise. Going back to the reds for a minute on the pitching side, Frankie Montas is getting the opening day nod and maybe this is just the way the schedule worked out but these things are usually planned far in advance. Like you kind of know who you want your opening day starter to be and you have them pitch their first spring game based on that and it's just mapped

out so they land on opening day but I would have assumed Hunter Green was the opening day starter. I don't think this means a lot, but I do feel like we haven't talked a lot about Montas on this show over the course of draft season. This is a guy that's had a lot of success in the past. It was in a pitcher friendly environment in Oakland. A lot of success might be a little bit of a stretch, but 2019 and a half season, 2021 and a full season, those were really good years with good ratios, lots of strikeouts. Kind of a bumpy patch once he got to the Yankees, was also hurt for most of last season.

What have you been doing with Frankie Montas in your draft so far this season? Probably nothing. I haven't listed, but I just haven't been taking him. I'll admit it I've probably overlooked him because of the injury history because of the idea that I've mostly been doing NFPC type drafts whether it's TGF bi or something else And I'm looking at him like well if I need to replace him early. There's no IL He's definitely somebody a league with IEL spots You you should be drafting because even if he pitches, a month gets hurt, comes back in two or three months, you could get 60 or 70 really solid innings out of him. So I'll admit, I've kind of whipped on him so far. He's somebody who should be thinking

about it at the very least at the back end of your drafts and even in a standard mix, quite honestly, where you can always drop him. Yeah, I think he goes late enough. You could absolutely throw the dart. If you're not happy with what you see, let him go. Pulling up the ADP here again real quick. Right around pick 300, that's the range. And I think we've discussed this before. Great American ballpark as difficult as it is overall. I mean, it boosts homers. That's the main problem. It's not impossible. We've seen pitchers fair pretty well there. I mean, Sonny Gray was okay there. Johnny Cueto back in the day was very good there. Luis Castillo, it's not impossible to be a good pitcher with that as your home park.

It's not coolers, even though it is a difficult place to deal with. And I think with Montas, the other thing that makes me kind of intrigued by him from a skills perspective is he can get that ground ball rate to a slightly elevated place when things are going really well He's got that splitter that can help him keep the ball on the ground So maybe he won't get bit as much by that park as some people will think right doesn't have that heavy heavy fly ball tendency When everything is working on the other Reds news item, Matt McClain playing in spring games, he was dealing with that oblique injury that was kind of bothering him at the end of last season. Good news that he seems to be on track to be ready for opening day. Jordan Lawler got sent

down to AAA Mike and I got a kind of a broader question for you just about prospects in redraft leagues. How do you approach guys that are not going to be on the opening day roster? I mean, I think by ADP most people expected some time at AAA for Jordan Lawler and There's a lot of players that kind of fit this description. Pete Crow Armstrong got sent down by the Cubs recently Are these players generally? Undraftable in the NFPC style leagues you talked about? Or do you find that you can actually get away with stashing one or possibly two early on in the season if you build your roster correctly? My rule is probably one. And it generally is after their ADP, which means I

might not get one. And I'm fine with that. Like someone I find myself drafting is more like Kyle Mazzardo, just because he's going late enough and I've noticed his price falling where it's like, okay, if I get Mazzardo and he gets sent down, fine. I think there's still a chance he might make the team. But really, I like to take the player late because there's that idea that if you take somebody and say the 20, even the 20th round,

and he's there for a month and the miners, and you've got needs needs like all of a sudden You feel like ooh like I have an investment in this player Let's see if you take somebody late like 25th round or later It's pretty easy to drop the player because psychologically you feel well, okay. He's not gonna work out. I Can pick him back up later. It's a long season and FBC is tough too and leaves like that because you need those pitching slots, especially early. You really need to churn through to play matchups. It's difficult to hold on to a prospect unless it's someone like, you know, you and your common arrow, for example, who you look at like this player is so good that I can hold on to for a month and see what happens. I think the price is really, really key in all of this. And I'm willing to take on risks.

I mean, I think guys like Wyatt Langford and Jackson Churio before they hit that last jump sometimes and why Langford has hit it recently. We talked about it last week. You can get in, you can feel OK about the price, because the likelihood of them being everyday players is actually pretty high. And even if you're wrong in the eighth or the ninth round, you can live to tell the tale of missing

with a pick in that range. But when you start to talk about fourth and fifth round for guys like that, they get that late bump, then it becomes almost impossible for me at least to draft them at that price, even though I believe in them and know they're good. I mean, I've missed out on Bobby Whit Jr.'s rookie season a couple of years ago because the price just became too much.

And sometimes you're going to have guys that crank out a $20 plus season and someone else gets a little bit of value. But other times, like those guys don't make money for you in that draft slot. It does actually become cost prohibitive and it becomes smart to avoid them. The late dark prospects make a lot of sense. The guys that haven't been sent down yet especially, I think they're totally fine because as you said,

it's easy to cut bait on someone you drafted, especially in the last five rounds. Like you generally, at least I go in to a 15 team league like that, expecting most of those guys to be cut. Maybe even at the first fad, depending on how early we're drafting. I'm just trying to take the what could go right sort of angle with players like that. I think I've got Loller on at least one roster so far that there was a chance he'd make the

opening day roster. I think this is a pretty good reminder though. They do like Geraldo Pardomo a lot, even though Pardomo doesn't do all the things from a stat cast perspective that we all get excited about. as analysts, he's a good real life player. They like him as their shortstop. Maybe they're not ready to move into utility role yet. Maybe they want to give Jordan Lawler some time to play another position at AAA and break him in somewhere else or break Lawler in as a super utility player.

I mean, there's a lot of ways this could play out. But as it stands right now with Lawler specifically, I don't think I'm drafting him in leagues that have the seven bench spots where stashing is tough. I think I would take a shot on a men's Zardo or someone else, even Jordan Westberg, who I really like. I think there's a much better chance Westberg stays up and even has a spot to call his own in a crowded Orioles infield. Then then Lawler is going to get a quick call up. It's going to take an injury now for Lawler to come up and be an everyday guy for this Diamond Bax team in April. Yeah. The other thing I'd say too is, I know it was a small sample, but he did

struggle last year in the majors and that's part of it. I'm sure if he had gone 15 for 30 instead of 4 for 30 or whatever it was, they might have looked at it differently. He did look like he needed a little, like just a little bit of the finishing touches. So I would guess June for Lawler. I have no inside information, but if you're looking at June, it's just kind of tough to hang on to a player like that in the league without a lot of reserve slots. Yeah. I mean, we're talking about a guy that just turned 21 last July, only spent 16 games at AAA before getting that 14 game late season call up to Arizona.

So I think they're justified in their willingness to send him down, give him a bit more time. K-rate was high last year when he debuted in that small sample and he was striking out a little bit again this spring, right? I mean, I think the process stats do matter as far as guys that are on the margins making those kinds of decisions if someone is actually ready or not. But someone I like from a really, like a lot from a long term perspective, even though I'm not necessarily in redraft.

I think the exception would be an NL only league. Of course, in an NL only league, I'll take that chance, especially if it's like a dollar or two and I can find someone else to fill that spot for the first part of the season. Because the payoff could be nice down the road once Lawler finally gets that opportunity. A couple other injury items to pass along. One more at least, Gavin Williams nursing an elbow issue. This one's a bummer, Mike, because I really like Gavin Williams. I obviously believe in the Guardian's ability to develop pitching. They've done it for so long. There's no reason not to, but I thought we were on the brink of maybe getting a full season close to what we saw

last year, but maybe even with better whip from Gavin Williams. He had a 3-29 ERA and a 1-26 whip, 81 Ks and 82 innings. I thought the stuff was good enough for him to take one more step, and maybe it still is. But this is a case where I think the Guardians are going to be extra careful. It's a young pitcher. There's no reason to push him too hard. So even if it's not a serious injury, I think I would expect the longer end of

whatever timetable they eventually put out there. Yeah, I agree. And I liked him too. I was fine with him as a ADP and I'm not off him completely, but he would really have to fall like for me, me to grab him. Do you happen to have where his ADP is in recent drafts? Yeah. fall like for me to grab him. Do you happen to have where his ADP is in recent drafts? Yeah, the most recent window, 229 is the max now. So I would say, you know, the ADP is at 162 just for all of March. I would bet if we sliced that down to like the last three days since this

news popped up on Sunday, you're going to find that even lower. 179, yeah. So he's slipping a little bit, probably closer to pick 200 now on average. Pretty good bargain. Yeah, I'm probably looking at him outside the top 200 and you're right. It's a good bargain if that's where he falls and if he's healthier, it's a minor thing. But I just feel really reluctant when I hear elbow to push him past that. Absolutely. JD Davis released by the Giants. So opportunity for someone else to pick up a power bat that probably fits better at

first base and DH than at third base, even with a few improvements that made him less terrible at third base. I mean, I think it feels rude, but he was better than people expected, even though he still didn't grade out particularly well at third base. There's a good story, I mean, a frustrating story, but a good story written by Andrew Baggardly too, that the Giants actually got off the hook for a lot of that salary because of a loophole in the CBA. But we'll spare you the details of that here. Be sure to check that out over on the Athletic. Mike, let's get to mixed labor. You and I went up against each other in this draft and there's a lot of interesting ways to break it down. It's been a

few weeks since we built these teams. I made a board so people can actually follow along if they're watching on YouTube. We'll put the link to the results in the show description. So if you wanna click on that and kinda check these things out, as we're talking about them, that may be a helpful thing to do.

But you had the 13th seat in this room, 15 team league. I think it's 29 man rosters. I got the first 24 rounds on the screen for those of you who are watching on YouTube. And I'm curious first and foremost, how much do you like being in the back of the draft order for this year, just based on the way the player pool is shaping up? shaping up. I didn't like it at all. So something I like in the first round is trying to get that speed and power together, particularly in an average league. And that's really difficult to do at the back end of the first round without giving something

up. Like, yes. And he went in this draft. But Jose Ramirez is typically there, but he's kind of fell off a little bit last year. And I'm a little worried about him not being like a 30 to 35 steel player. And then you really have to make decisions, right? So you really, if you want to take speed at the back end of the first round, you have to give something else up and you really have to push on a player like say Francisco Lindor, who I like a lot. I just don't like

him in the first round. So I don't like it back here. I also don't like like pre-injury. This is where Garrett Cole is kind of lurking as a viable pick. And if you don't take a starter, which is what I did in this draft in the first two rounds, I feel like you have to kind of give something up on starting pitching. So yeah, I don't like the back end this year. I mean, I like my team.

I think I did fine with it, but I would have preferred to be in the middle or closer to the front end this year. Um, I mean, I like my team. I think I did fine with it, but I would have preferred to be in the middle or closer to the front where you were. I see you started with judge and Riley. So you did have to kind of lean into the no speed approach. And I think what, what is interesting about every start is you have to give up something. You're going to be chasing something relatively speaking. Your, your early middle rounds are going to be kind of making up ground in some categories.

For you, it was speed. On the pitching side, I guess it ended up being saves. That's not atypical though, right? If you go hit or hit or pitch or pitch, a lot of times outside of the NFPC especially, that's going to be two starters rather than a closer getting pushed all the way into that range. Have you been comfortable taking early closers in the 3-4 range when you have that later position? Because that's like the first couple of closers off the board. Edwin

Diaz went to Jenny Butler at the pick after you. It was kind of wild, this particular room. You had Jenny Butler and Paul Sporer, 14th and 15th, and they both double tapped closers at the 3-4 turn. So after you took Freddie Peralta as your first pitcher, they went Edwin Diaz, Josh Hader, Emmanuel Classe, and Joanne Durand. Was there any chance of any one of those four closers was there you would have taken them over Logan Webb or was it a priority for you to make sure you got a lot of high-quality innings with the two starters? The answer is probably not. I will say psychologically, when I saw those closers going if one of Diaz, Hader or Duran had been there

I might have taken one just to join the run and be like I have to get one But generally no and some of this is the difference between NFPC You know TGF BI and NFPC type league. I did take Diaz. I was in the 14th slot there in my bracket. I did take Diaz in the third round, so I'm not afraid to do it when there's an overall component. I just don't like pushing closers up in this league. I feel like from a valuation standpoint, you're giving something up. And most importantly, you don't have to win every category. Like you can come, you know, in third place in every category and still in most 15 team leagues, you can still win in a roto format. And I don't know if the closers I got will do that. But I just felt like it was giving up too much value with most of

these picks to push up closers. And the other problem too is once I waited, when you look at the rest of the board, the closers that a lot of people like, obviously, were all going. So it's that thing where it's like, well, yeah, sure, I'd like to take a closer early, but I don't really want to surrender, you know, the value on that next pick, and then that next pick. Um, Edward Alzalei, who I took, I think in the 10th round, that was kind of my plan was like, okay, I'm not going to wait forever. I'm not going to dump the category. This is where I'll take my first closer. And I think he's fine. Like he's sort of on the back end of that large circle of trust this year.

You know, it's not like, you know, Finnegan or Lange or one of those closers where it's like, oh, gee, like I can't believe like this is my first closer. But you're right. Like it certainly is one of the high end closers that you're shooting for. Yeah. Like it certainly is one of the high end closers that you're shooting for. Yeah, I think the important thing is that so many people that listen to shows and watch our shows, they don't play in the NFPC. They play in other leagues. Most other leagues you can trade. In labor, you can trade. So if you have a categorical weakness and someone else has that strength, you can line up and make a deal pretty easily, right? So you have that afforded to you and in a standalone league of any kind, NFPC or not,

as long as there's no overall component, you don't necessarily have to have as much categorical balance as we're always talking about when we're looking at more of those NFPC style formats as well. So I think it's fine to have a thing that you're waiting for to have that be saved. You don't have to commit an overwhelming amount of fab budget to get saves in a situation like this. Whereas I feel like if you use this build in the NFPC, you will drain a lot more fab than you'd like trying to find those relievers more likely than not. I think Alzalee is pretty good as a kind of a last chance, likely to be the guy so long as he's healthy closer Usually goes kind of in the same range as Kenley Jansen usually it's a little bit after Clay Holmes and a few other guys that have sort of similar skills. So makes sense where he goes for sure

So I like the way you executed this strategy And I think when you when you went Peralta web you gave yourself more flexibility For those next five or six picks. You could kind of do whatever you wanted because you had enough pitching, you had two legit big bats. I think the only thing you really had to think about was making sure you got enough speed with the next few hitters that you put together. That became the priority as soon as you started judging Riley. The next thing on your mind had to be, all right, I got to get 25 to 30 bags from a couple of hitters before the hitters like that sort of dry up or at least before the good hitters like that completely dry up.

Yeah, that's right. And I think I might actually still be a little light on speed. I mean to your point, it is a trading league. But I might be a speedster short. But so I got jazz Chisholm in the fifth round I was hoping to get either Chisholm or or Josh Lowe What's tricky about Lowe is that Tim McLeod was on the wheel on the other end and he likes his guys and he's somebody Who's not afraid to jump ADP and he did that on on Josh Lowe, which is fine Like I think you should do that, especially if you're on the wheel But I like Chisholm where I got him and the Matt McClain. I kind of got the dip on the injury news with him. I wasn't expecting to get him.

He wasn't a target, but he went just outside of Pick 100. And he's not a major speedster, but he should steal 20 bases conservatively, you know, assuming everything's OK with him health wise. And I was really pleased to be able to kind of backfill on the speed with those two picks. Yeah, I think that turned out really well. And McLean was a nice value where he landed. Jazz was someone I was thinking about in round five. I took Nico Horner in that spot. The only reason I didn't take jazz earlier was because I started to build what I thought was a good batting average foundation. This was the league where I went Spencer Strider, Corbin Burns, I went pocket aces in the first and second

round. I felt like Vlad Jr. by a projection made sense at 3-5. We're going to talk a little bit about some projections flaws or potential flaws in a few minutes. With Vlad and then Royce Lewis as my first two hitters, I felt like, hey, my batting average might be among the league's best. Let's keep pushing in that direction because if I'm chasing some late speed, I need to have some cushion. Usually when you're chasing something late,

you need to have a really strong average built in. Felt like Horner gave me that, whereas Jazz, of all the things he's gonna do well, the last thing he's likely to provide us is a good batting average. It's probably 30-30 skills that are legit, but is it going to come with more than like a 240 average? Most likely not, but I really liked that pick for you at late part around five because I

could see Jazz being healthy this year and popping up and going two rounds earlier in drafts this time next year. You did identify the biggest problem with my team though, in my opinion. It is the batting average. I don't have a batting average standout. I have players that I like, like later on, like Dalton Varshow. I really like Nolan Gorman. I'm huge on him this year. I really could have used a batting average anchor. And Louisa Rize is somebody I was looking at, but he went about a round earlier in round 11 to Rudy Gamble of

Raspal. And I might have been looking at the end of round 11, but at that point, you know, he was gone and there just really wasn't a hitter to fill that need. So if I do have a weakness, you know, I know the categories variable averages where I'm a little bit concerned going to be like in the bottom third of the category as opposed to any higher than that. How far into the season do you have to go before you'd actually consider, you know, punting batting average? Like, is it a couple months? Is it longer than that? Like, when are you comfortable saying, yeah, all right, maybe I'll shift away from the handful of guys that are really good in that category. I'll trade them away or I'll take on a few more deadweight players on the

waiver wire in that category because it's only going to cost me a standing point or two if I drop, but I can make up ground in homers and runs and RBIs by taking advantage of something that other players might be afraid of. I would say maybe a third of the season, so about 50 games or so. It's a tough category to do much with one way or the other though. I would say maybe a third of the season, so about 50 games or so. It's a tough category to do much with one way or the other, though. I mean, it's especially a tough category to move up in. So I think after like 40 or 50 games, if I see I'm at or near the bottom, that might be where like to your point, I start picking up players who are weak in the category,

but strong elsewhere, or, you know, maybe reach out to whoever it is who has Kyle Schwabber. I hope it's Fred Zinke, but I'm just looking at the board now. I'm not sure who it is, but you ever have Schwabber, it's like, yeah, I might reach out and say, hey, it's time to offer up a little extra for him if I'm ahead in steals or if my pitching's doing well, and maybe see if I can add that power and, you know, just suck along with that bad batting average.

It's Tim Tim by the way Ah, yeah, there you go. So you can take advantage of players that people are taking it a discount and Like you still get a discount when you trade form in most cases because I think that that batting average weakness Just hangs on to a player's value. I don't know if people do a good job adjusting their in-season valuations enough based on need in that category in particular. So I think if you have committed to not worrying that much about it, you can still get that value on those players later be it Schwabber, Max Muncie, guys that kind of fit that profile of hey, they're gonna play a lot and they're in good lineups and the powers real and the run

Productions real let's take advantage of the three categories They thrive in and not worry about the one or two categories where they don't offer much because you're getting that from everybody else And you don't necessarily need to get that from those two guys in particular I noticed you took Jackson holiday in this one too. It was like round 15. I think I noticed you took Jackson holiday in this one too. It was like round 15. I think Do you find it strange that Jackson holiday as the best prospect in baseball is available around? pick 200 in a world where everybody wants shiny new toys like Like every everything Jackson holiday has done in the minor so far has just been ridiculously good. I mean, are people just afraid that it's too crowded and we'll have to wait longer than we want to for him to get that opportunity with the Orioles?

It's a little bit of that. I think people are worried he's going to get sent down or struggle and go down. And people maybe remember Jared Kellnick and are worried about that. But honestly, I think a large part of it is in any of the segues into a future discussion here that we're going to have. People are looking a little bit too much at projections with him I know the projections are really limp. They show like a 10-10 player and like a Think 400 or 450 plate appearances or whatever it is and it really with a player like holiday I'm not suggesting he's gonna go 30 30

But it's not difficult to see him doing what Anthony Volpe did last year and with a somewhat better batting average. And if I get that outside of pick 200, like a 15-20, 15-25 player who hits 2-30 at middle infield, I'll take that all day long. Like especially in that lineup where the runs and RBI will be boosted. I wasn't targeting him. I just saw him here and I was like, you know what? He's a player like just kind of worth taking a chance on. And, you know, the other thing I did too is I took Brandon Lau a little bit early and just supplemented being like, well, you know what? If holiday does go down, I have a replacement I can just put in for a couple of weeks.

He's going to give me something in middle infield. With holidays, 54 total games above double A a but he's passed every test They've given him so far if they send him down to triple a I think you could be called up faster than Jordan Loller Barring the injury reason to bring either one of those guys up and if the floor is pretty high I want to ask you about this then what leads you to disagree with Projections what types of things do you see either in a player or in a group of players that makes you say, hey, look, projections are wonderful, but this is an area where the projection might not tell us the whole story? So there's a couple players that you sent me this question on the rundown.

There's a couple players that jumped out to me this year, like in C.J. Abrams and Ellie Dela Cruz. Like if you look at Dela Cruz's projections, CJ Abrams and LA De La Cruz. Like if you look at De La Cruz's projections, he's not going to do that. Like he's not going to hit, what is it? Like 240 with like 35 steals and like, I think it's 15 home runs. And I'm just, you know, averaging them. He's either going to go out and be like the superstar who figures out the strikeouts. And, you know, next year we're talking about him, you know, as a first rounder, or he's going to struggle so badly where he gets sent down, or they start resting him. The projection just sort of is like this middle baseline that I feel tells you almost nothing. And I get it, and it's a smart way to draft. You shouldn't draft De La Cruz in the first round or the fifth round. You should take him somewhere in the middle of

there. And then Abrams is another one. Abrams, I think there was real improvement in the second half. He stole at the same pace as Ronald Acuna Jr. in the second half with a much worse on base percentage. And yes, I get all the flaws with Abrams. You know, I've heard people say, you know, the Stackcast page is terrible and I know it is, but he's going to play in Washington. He could steal 60 to 70 bases and the projections just have him much lower. Like, and it's a similar thing to Taylor Cruz.

Like he could totally tank. He could steal a ton of bases and really be a bargain in roto leagues. He's not going to be in the middle. And that's what I'm looking at projections. I think some projections take too much of a middle road. There's a good reason for that with boring veterans and lots of other players. But with younger players and players who have an erratic path I think that's where sometimes they're a little bit off

Yeah, I found most years. That's where my biggest disagreements are not because Not because that like the projection is is wrong, but it's more because of what you said like it's the range of outcomes is more extreme and You need to decide which of those extremes is more likely to occur And then you kind of base that on what it costs to get the player to decide if the player makes sense or not with Abrams He fits into this group of players that I The speedsters in general seem like they're under-projected for stolen bases.

The run environment in the projections didn't fully capture 2023 or isn't fully buying it as the new normal. When Eno and I have talked about this, it's hard to imagine that teams would run less. It seems almost certain that they're going to run more because the league's success rate was above 80% last year. So the green light is still on. Like you go until the efficiency drops. So I imagine that many teams sat around this winter and said, wow, we can actually run more than we thought. We have these players that had this many opportunities that they didn't take. We think these players can

actually run more. And you're going to see a decent number of teams take more aggressive approaches than they did a year ago. There's going to be an abundance of bags. We talked about it with Trey Turner before. I think Abrams is a great example of this. How do you go 47 for 51 as a base stealer over a pretty healthy full season, come back with a projection for similar playing time, and end up with fewer steals, especially given his age? He's so young. That's a core skill that CJ Abrams will have for similar playing time and end up with fewer steals, especially given his age.

He's so young. That's a core skill that C.J. Abrams will have for a long time. The other part of C.J. Abrams that's complicated is he missed a lot of time in the minors with injuries and he was right in that sweet spot development wise where he would have played, you know, full season at probably high A in 2020 and there was no 2020 season. So he lost that development time as well. They're supposed to be more power on the way. And we started to see it last year.

One 67 ISO is pretty good for a 22 year old. He's not small. He's like one of those guys that could add a lot of muscle to his frame, right? And he's listed at six two. He's kind of, he kind of looks skinny now when you watch him, but it's kind of like early career Byron Buxton where you looked at him and you're like, this guy could get a lot stronger. Early career Carlos Gomez, you could pack on more muscle and get to that power more consistently. So the stack-ass numbers kind of steer you one way with CJA

Arams, but scouts and kind of like physical projection would give you more reasons to believe in the 18 homers and possibly an up arrow in that category long term as well. Yeah. And I think that's just in general with the projections. They tend to see things as flat. And we know generally, like young players, it might not be incremental, but they generally get better. And older players generally, especially as they get into their mid-30s decline. And it's something projections struggle with because they're logically looking at a series of numbers from the previous three years. I know they bake some of this in, but they probably don't bake it in enough. Spencer Torkelson, another guy I got in labor, Robert Orr at Baseball Perspectus, by the way, always read Robert Orr. You're not doing so already.

He's wonderful. Get a great piece on Torkelson back in August about the improvements he made, about what he was doing, and over the next six weeks, like, weeks Torkelson went out and did the things that Robert was describing. He's another player of the projection, still see with like a really low batting average and leveling off. If Torkelson is like Laster's version of Piedolonso where he hits 40 home runs, yes, even in that park with a bad batting average, it just wouldn't surprise me because players change. Players evolve. I hear you and Eno talk about that all the time. Players are constantly learning.

They're constantly doing things differently. That's something projections just often aren't going to catch. They're not really designed to catch that. They're designed to look mostly at numbers that previously occurred and say, okay, this is what we expect to come next. There's nothing wrong with the projections. It's just how we use the projections and how sometimes we fail to accommodate for those changes.

Right. Yeah. To clarify, I love science and numbers. I'm not dismissing them as being without value. I'm, I think it comes back to something we've said, it's like, you have to understand how the sausage is made, how the projection is made, what, what are the limitations? And where can you take advantage of that? And the reason is, I think the overwhelming majority of people who play are using one of probably four or five sets of projections For their valuations some people do their own some people use some random set that's less popular They may have slightly different rankings as a result But I think you get really similar views of the player pool unless you can find some sort of meaningful way

pool unless you can find some sort of meaningful way to manipulate your rankings and your evaluations to better reflect what's likely to occur. The big variable for me, and I think Jeff Zimmerman was on this several years before me, and maybe you were on this several years before me too, the playing time projections, right? So many people look at fan graphs in particular. Fan graphs rules. I love fan graphs, support fan graphs, throw money at fan graphs, please, like keep fan graphs alive as long as possible. You have to realize that the playing time adjustments are massive. When you when you find that you disagree in either direction with a playing time projection, that's a huge pivot point for someone that you either like or dislike more than the market because many, many people in this game will

not adjust playing time themselves. They'll take what's spit out and they'll just run with it and that's okay. You can play that way. Those are good projections but they're not perfect. It's the same kind of thing. Where can you find an edge that other people aren't exploiting? For me, that is one of those places. And I think before the Noelvimarte suspension, it might have

been even worse, but there are some pretty low projected plate appearance totals for Christian and Carnassio and Strand. So if you run him through the auction calculator or any sort of draft software with a similarly low plate appearance projection, it's going to bring everything down. It's gonna bring his homers, his runs, RBI's down. It's gonna make him less valuable. If you think that's wrong, if you think he's a 600 plate appearance player,

you gotta scale him up, bump him up a couple of rounds. That's the kind of player you would take at or slightly above cost consistently because you have a clear reason why the market is flat out wrong about that player. Yeah. The other thing too about projections is I've often found this, if you just go off projections, especially in a sharp room of people, look, in your local league, if you're playing with a bunch of people who don't fall projections, you can just take a projection

list and probably win, you know, nine times out of 10. In a sharp league, you're going to finish third or fourth doing that just because you need the variance. Like, you know, nine times out of 10. In a sharp league, you're going to finish third or fourth doing that just because you need the variance. Like, you know, getting back to holiday, one of the reasons I took him is I feel like you need to hit like an 80th or 90th percentile projection on one or two players like that at the back end of your draft to win a sharp league. It's really difficult not to do that. I'm not saying you should make every pick like that. I know there's main event players who, you know, they, boring is good. Like boring is often good, following the projections is good, but you need to take three or four hits, I'd say outside of pick like 200, that you're rolling the dice, that you're like, I hope this player really like, you know, goes over the projection.

And with a player like Holiday, that's what you're looking for. You're looking for pedigree, you're looking for, you know, the scouting, the makeup, like people love him. You know, he's got his, you know, his dad, Matt has that offseason compound. I think it's in Oklahoma that like major leagueers have gone to my, oh my gosh, like this place is amazing. Like this is where you get to train. And this isn't just about holiday. Like you're looking for three or four players like that who have that ability to really

outshine the projection based on where they're going. I think the other tricky part of this too is like you want to absorb as much information as possible. Hitters and pitchers are always making adjustments. Pitchers are working on new pitches. They're throwing in front of machines. They're adding spin. They're adding new secondary stuff. They're adding Velo, right? They're changing their grips. They're always doing something. And some of it matters and some of it doesn't and trying to determine what stuff matters and what stuff doesn't is very tough. side, Brett Beatty. I really like Brett Beatty just from the simple fact that he hits the ball hard. In 2022, he was the best hitter at AA by WRC+, so he was age-appropriate, even a little young for

the level. He was the best player there. All he really needs to do is hit the ball in the air more consistently to unlock power. It's an oversimplification, but that's generally what if he does that, more power will come. And the thing about Beatty that's interesting, Willplification, but that's generally what if he does that more power will come and the thing about baby That's interesting Will salmon who covers the the Mets for the athletic tip me off to this video He did a breakdown on SNY with Todd zeal He was explaining the changes that he made this offseason He's trying to fix his top hand trying to make an adjustment to kind of fix a hole where down and in pitches in the zone

Usually lefties crush that ball. Brett Bady hasn't so far, and he's trying to make some mechanical adjustments to basically take a pitch that he should drive in the air and start driving it in the air. And I'm getting excited watching this, because I'm like, all right, I already like this guy. And it seems like he's making the exact adjustment

that he has to make to be a better version of himself. I almost wonder if sometimes I can go too far in the other direction. Like it's good to have that information in your back pocket, but can you, can you overcorrect based on information? It's a hard game. You could make that change. Brett Beatty can make that swing change. It might cost him something.

It might create a hole. He might, he might have something else he's not doing as well. Right. So like that's the other part of the information battle that I'm like wrestling with on a regular basis as I'm trying to figure out how to adjust player values. Yeah, and what's really tough too, in a case like Beatty,

it's very easy, especially this time of year, to take every piece of information and overreact, because that's what we're looking for. We're looking for an edge. We're looking for like the rundown we went through at the the beginning you're looking for that news where it's like ooh I don't want to overpay I don't want to get get stuck with a player or an injury or a problem But it works the other way like we were too often, you know thinking ooh, I love Brett baby

I like baby too by the way But yeah, we want to be careful not to go too far in the other direction like okay I'm gonna jump him, you know three or four rounds based on this news and then kind of find out he's mostly the same player on a team that might not be going anywhere this year. Right. Yeah. So it can work against you, too. But I think you do want to find your various reasons for kind of pushing back on projection because that is going to lead you to different builds.

And I think zigging when everyone else zags. I've heard Scott Pionowski say that for years, multiple fantasy sports, there's something to be said about using a different strategy than everybody else in the room. I think in DFS, a lot of times it's leverage, right? It's having the advantage over the pool because you have a combination that most people don't have. You used a different build. What I noticed, I did the pocket aces thing in labor draft that we did. I'll pop the board up

again real quick just so we can kind of look at it. But I was in the fifth spot. I went Strider Burns. And what I noticed was once I got into that round four through six range, round four through seven even, I was looking at completely different hitters than I am when I start hitter pitcher or hitter hitter. It just twists the player pool in a completely different direction and many other people near me in this room started hitter hitter. I think of the 4 people who were drafted in front of me, only 1, Jeff Erickson drafted a pitcher in the first 2 rounds and I think Timmy McCloud was the only one who had a pitcher in the first two rounds. And I think Timmy McLeod was the only one who had a pitcher in the first three rounds. So I had just a totally different looking build throughout and even other teams

throughout the draft board. Like usually there's only one or two rosters that go pocket aces the way I would define it where it's two of your first three picks are starting pitchers. Ideally, yeah, your first two, but I think two of the first three would also count. So what it did is it just pushed me into this group of players that I haven't really rostered anywhere else. Like Royce Lewis, Nico Horner, those two guys are on, I think, only one other roster for me.

That's just Lewis, who I drafted after I got him in labor. And I kind of like the idea of shopping at a different bin because when everybody else is chasing some of the high-ceiling sp2s the Bobby Millers the Grayson Rodriguez is the Yuri Perez is if you're shopping for hitters You're not worried about that group of players You're not getting FOMO because you you missed out on some of those guys You already took care of your pitching and you're doing something completely different And I found something about that to be somewhat refreshing I I guess, of having this build that was just sort of unique.

Yeah, you know, I'm looking at your board too, like what the other thing it allowed you to do. So I tend to try to take three starters, like whether I'm doing pocket aces or not, like in the first seven or eight rounds in a league like this. It allowed you to wait until the 13th round to take you, Darvish is your third starter. And given how high end your first two starters out are, your rotation looks fine. And it gave you all this offense, like you just were able to take, you know, hitter after hitter after hitter,

you took a solid catcher in Cal Raleigh, and even got two closers in the seventh and eighth round. Like so by taking pocket aces, it really allowed you to make for a strong team everywhere else. I think people often get afraid of taking pictures in the first two rounds because they're like, where am I going to make it up? And you did it by staying in the course and by not taking a third starter and a fourth starter, and then all of a sudden be like, oh, gee, I've got this great rotation, but I'm never going to make up the offense. I look at your roster,

I feel like you made up the offense and then some Yeah, thanks I mean I think a lot of things fell into place here that I wouldn't always expect to fall into place quite the way That they did I sometimes you get an outlier result and we do this before Cody Bellinger returned to the Cubs So he fell a little further than expected Churio Churio versus Langford was actually the toss up for me. I'm surprised Langford went three rounds later.

It was a great pick by Alan Harrison and round 12, considering that why Langford now is jumping up ahead of Jackson Churio pretty consistently. Uh, but what I, what I was looking at before going back into pitching was trying to decide how much quality was left at each position. Where was there going to be a massive drop where it was gonna cost me? If I got to the point where there wasn't much of a difference between a handful of hitters that were available

at the positions of need, then I flipped the switch back to starting pitching. But it just kind of fell where every time I came back up, I looked at it, there was clearly like obvious value bat relative to the others available position. So I kept going that way. I think the other thing I would say about the pocket aces is it was an idea. It wasn't the idea. It was just a thing that I thought I would do if things broke a certain way. There was probably better than 50% chance that L.E. Day LaCruz was sitting there

with my second round pick. I would just want to take in Cruz instead and would have come back and grabbed Tyler Glass now or one of the other pitchers that I think is a possible SP1 in round three. And the build changes a little bit from there, but it's not radically different. You'd still have to go pretty aggressively

with bats where I did. How committed are you to a particular strategy ahead of time? Are you kind of like, here's my A plan, here's my B plan, here's my C plan, and then now let's watch what happens with the board? Or are you a little more rigid in what things you're trying to accomplish by each sort of checkpoint in the draft? I mean, the only rules that I really have are the one I just mentioned, like I try to get three starting pitchers in the first seven or eight rounds, I do try to take my first closer in the first nine or 10 rounds, even if I'm not going for a high end closer. Otherwise, I'm

pretty flexible. Like two years ago in Tat Wars mixed draft, I know you're in the on the auction side or you were on the auction side. I won with pocket aces there. I was at the 12th slot. I'm not going to go through a whole draft from a year and a half ago, or two years ago at this point. It was a similar thing. I wasn't necessarily planning to go pocket aces, but with each pick, it just really worked out for me. Outside of that was a lockout year, outside of taking Will Smith as the pitcher as a closer, like five seconds before he got traded. And, you know, I kind of had to like struggle for saves. Like it really worked out.

Yeah. I think if you're only chasing one thing, you're going to generally be okay. Right? I mean, you're doing well in nine categories. That's usually enough to win a league. You don't have to be perfect across the board. That's something that I don't know why when I started playing, I tried to just win every category. It's like, that's almost impossible and almost sets you up to make a few mistakes that you don't need to make by just worrying too much about 10 categories instead of cutting it down a little bit and thinking about, okay, here's my relative weakness. I'm okay with it. I'll try to address it here. If that doesn't work, that's fine. We can move on and everything will be okay. Oh, I was just going to say before we go, I mean, to date myself, the first year I played,

I did something, I don't know if you ever heard of it, called the Sweeney Plan, which is like an old four by four strategy where you dump power. And I did it because I came into a league that had like, I had no freezes and I had to do something different. So I'm kind of the opposite. I've always played around with dumping categories, like what I had no freezes and I had to do something different. So I've kind of the opposite. I've always played around with dumping categories, like what I have to just to see if yeah, man, no, no reason not to try something different, especially in those unusual situations, taking over in a keeper league or you don't have a lot on your roster. That's a time for experimentation because it's going to take

you a couple of years to probably make a good sustainable team. But you might as well have some fun and learn a couple things while you try to go through that rebuild. Mike, before we go, let our listeners know where they can find your work. Well, I'm at Baseball Prospectus. I've got two articles a week there. I'll be doing a fab column once the season starts. We have our own podcast, me and John Haglund, our podcast partner, John, is not currently writing for BP, but he's a great player as well. He won one of the two GFBI's one year Flags Fly Forever. And I'm on Blue Sky right now. I'm no longer on ex Twitter, but I'm on Blue Sky at Mike Gianella. I see more and more fantasy people are coming over there. So hopefully you'll join me over there. We can keep talking

about baseball. Yeah, nice to see more folks going over there. Lots of ways to engage about baseball without being on Twitter. It's part of the reason why we launched that discord when we did too. It's nice to hang out with people that want to talk about baseball and you don't get caught up in the mess that has become Twitter over the course of the last decade on our way out the door. If you don't have a subscription to the athletic, you can get one two dollars a month for the first year at the athletic dot com slash rates and barrels. Mike, thank you so much again for joining me today. Oh, thanks for having me anytime DVR. That's good to do it

for this episode of rates and barrels. We're back with you on Wednesday. Thanks for watching!